SB Nation - Neifi Perez

WAR Lords of the Diamond: Greatest. Rockies. Ever.

Jabberwocky — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:30:19 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Todd Helton features prominently in any conversation about the greatest Rockies ever.

Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF I RP I SP

Now that I've discussed the greatest Rockies ever by position according to WAR, I'll summarize my data and reveal my All-Time Rockies squad. In all, 224 Rockies have been weighed, measured, and (mostly) been found wanting in this quest, yet some have clearly risen above the rest.

Of course, due to the fact that the Rockies' history is only 17 years old, there isn't exactly a deep pool of players to choose from in this study. Therefore, I will be ranking all players who produced a career WAR of over 3 wins at a position for the Rockies or was a significant player for the team.

Here was my methodology:

1. I only used stats accumulated when they played for the Rockies.

2. The categories used were: career with Rockies, best three consecutive years with Rockies (establishes average production), and best single year with the Rockies (establishes peak production).

3. If the players spent less than three years with the Rockies, their career total was used in the other metrics as well. If the player was at different positions for different years, the player would be considered for the position in which he had the most starts (or greatest impact, at my discretion) for the Rockies.

4. The players were ranked in each category. Those ranks were added and averaged out--the lowest average rank was the most valuable Rockie.

5. The data used was only for seasons that were completed (e.g. not 2009).

Remember, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fantastic Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of WAR's calculation for position players and pitchers. Note: the calculation that Smith uses is different than the one used in my article, so the numbers at Fangraphs will be slightly different than the ones I present in these articles.

After the jump I'll outline the greatest (and worst) Rockies squad as found using my methodology, as well as the best single year performances.

The All-Time Greats

Remember, this ranking takes into account best career WAR, best consecutive 3-year WAR period, and best single WAR year to accurately capture a player's greatness and to mitigate somewhat the fact that WAR is a counting stat and is heavily influenced by longevity. Slash stats are (Career WAR / 3 Year WAR / 1 Year WAR).

Starting Lineup

C: Jeff Reed (1996-1999) (4.3 / 4.6 / 1.8)
1B: Todd Helton (1997-2008) (53.9 / 21.7 / 8.8)
2B: Eric Young (1993-1997) (9.5 / 7.3 / 3.8)
3B: Garrett Atkins (2003-2008) (11.1 / 10.8 / 6.4)
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2006-2008) (6.2 / 6.2 / 5.6)
LF: Matt Holliday (2004-2008) (16.9 / 15.9 / 7.3)
CF: Juan Pierre (2000-2002) (3.0 / 3.0 / 2.4)
RF: Larry Walker (1995-2004) (44.1 / 18.3 / 9.0)

Bench

Vinny Castilla (1993-1999, 2004, 2006) (15.1 / 10.1 / 4.5)
Ellis Burks (1994-1998) (10.8 / 10 / 7.6)
Andres Galarraga (1993-1997) (11.3 / 6.3 / 3.6)
Jamey Carroll (2006-2007) (5.1 / 5.1 / 4.3)
Chris Iannetta (2006-2008) (3.2 / 3.2 / 2.7)

Batting Order

1. Eric Young
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Matt Holliday
6. Garrett Atkins
7. Juan Pierre
8. Jeff Reed

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1997-2001) (9.9 / 9.3 / 5.3)
SP2: Aaron Cook (2002-2008) (10.3 / 7.3 / 3.4)
SP3: Jason Jennings (2001-2006) (9.1 / 6.6 / 4.2)
SP4: Kevin Ritz (1994-1998) (6.6 / 6.5 / 3.9)
SP5: Armando Reynoso (1993-1996) (7.6 / 5.0 / 3.1)

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Steve Reed (1993-1997, 2003-2004) (9.2 / 5.6 / 3.1)
Brian Fuentes (2002-2008) (8.8 / 5.2 / 2.7)
Curtis Leskanic (1993-1999) (5.2 / 3.2 / 3.1)
Bruce Ruffin (1993-1997) (5.7 / 4.6 / 1.9)
Jerry Dipoto (1997-2000) (4.7 / 4.4 / 2.1)
Jose Jimenez (2000-2003) (4.2 / 4.2 / 2.3)
Darren Holmes (1993-1997) ( (3.8 / 3.6 / 2.3)

Analysis

The construction of this team historically tells us that in the last few years the Rockies have played several of the best position players in team history (three of them are on this squad). After 2009 is completed Chris Iannetta will supplant Jeff Reed at starting catcher while several other players shoot up the leader boards.

From a pitching standpoint, the bullpen is heavily comprised of guys that were in the 1997 bullpen (five of them!). After this year not much will change as far as relievers go, but Ubaldo Jimenez's stellar 2009 will place him in the rotation as the second-ranked starting pitcher. It should be noted that Ellis Burks would probably supplant Juan Pierre in center field.

The team that is best by my metrics is by and large the best team by Career and 3 Year WAR totals too, but there are definitely some interesting outlier seasons by others that shake up the best single year roster.

The Greatest Single Season Performances

Collected below is an unholy amalgamation of the best individual seasons by position in Rockies history. If these players had all produced at this level in the same year, they would have produced 67.2 batting WAR (20.4 off the bench), 19.2 relief WAR, and 22.1 starting pitching WAR for a total of 88.1 WAR. This team should statistically win 136.7 games out of 162 (a replacement level team would win 48.6, or 30% of its games).

Starting Lineup

C: Chris Iannetta (2008) 2.7
1B: Todd Helton (2000) 8.8
2B: Jamey Carroll (2006) 4.3
3B: Garrett Atkins (2006) 6.4
SS: Troy Tulowitzki (2007) 5.6
LF: Ellis Burks (1996) 7.6
CF: Juan Pierre (2001) 2.4
RF: Larry Walker (1997) 9.0

Bench

Matt Holliday (2007) 7.3
Vinny Castilla (1998) 4.5
Kazuo Matsui (2007) 4.1
Eric Young (1996) 2.7
Jeff Reed (1998) 1.8

Batting Order

1. Jamey Carroll
2. Ellis Burks
3. Larry Walker
4. Todd Helton
5. Garrett Atkins
6. Troy Tulowitzki
7. Chris Iannetta
8. Juan Pierre

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Pedro Astacio (1999) 5.3
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2004) 4.7
SP3: Jason Jennings (2006) 4.2
SP4: Marvin Freeman (1994) 4.0
SP5: Kevin Ritz (1995) 3.9

Bullpen (in order of importance):

Gabe White (2000) 3.3
Steve Reed (1997) 3.1
Curtis Leskanic (1995) 3.1
Brian Fuentes (2005) 2.7
Manuel Corpas (2007) 2.4
Jose Jimenez (2000) 2.3
Darren Holmes (1995) 2.3

Analysis

Obviously I'd play Holliday in left field and shift Burks to center, improving the lineup (and overall WAR) immensely, but those were the best players by WAR at their position in one season. From this year's team, Carlos Gonzalez is close to surpassing Juan Pierre, while Ubaldo Jimenez will jump atop the starting rotation, where he will perhaps be joined by Jason Marquis (depending on how his last start turns out). I'll talk more about this next week.

Rockies fans have been privileged enough to witness in the last couple of years some of the greatest seasons ever--Smith's WAR calculations are park-adjusted, so when Coors Field changed due to the humidor's implementation so did the formula for calculating WAR. As a result, early pitchers get a large boost (and hitters a large detraction) relative to today's players because of the pitcher's hell that was early Coors Field/Mile High.

And finally...

Single Season Goats

This would be the worst single-season lineup the Rockies could put on the field (worst players starting). The sad thing is that many of them did play a large role for the Rockies. The damage: -15.9 hitting WAR (-11.2 from the starting lineup), -7.5 relief WAR, and -8.5 SP WAR for a total of -31.9 wins above replacement. This team should statistically win 16.7 games out of 162.

Starting Lineup

C: Kirt Manwaring (1997) -2.1
1B: John Vander Wal (1997) -0.7
2B: Luis A. Gonzalez (2006) -1.0
3B: Vinny Castilla (1993) -0.5 [soon to be supplanted by Garrett Atkins, 2009 (-0.9)]
SS: Neifi Perez (1998) -1.2 (and yes, he played all 162 games)
LF: Dante Bichette (1999) -2.8
CF: Choo Freeman (2004) -1.2
RF: Brad Hawpe (2008) -1.7

Bench

Cory Sullivan (2006) -1.1
Steve Finley (2007) -1.1
Jason Bates (1996) -0.9
Jeff Baker (2007) -0.7
Gary Bennett (2002) -0.9

Batting Order

1. Neifi Perez
2. Choo Freeman
3. Vinny Castilla
4. Dante Bichette
5. Brad Hawpe
6. John Vander Wal
7. Kirt Manwaring
8. Luis A. Gonzalez

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Dennis Stark (2004) -1.9
SP2: Joe Kennedy (2005) -1.9
SP3: Brian Rekar (1996) -1.6
SP4: Andy Ashby (1993) -1.6
SP5: Mike Hampton (2002) -1.5

Bullpen (in order of suckitude):

Shawn Chacon (2004) -1.7
Todd Jones (2003) -1.4
Mike Dejean (1999) -1
Darren Holmes (1994) -0.9
Jose Acevedo (2005) -0.9
Jeremy Affeldt (2006) -0.8
Javier Lopez (2004) -0.8

Analysis

This team is horrible, but some of the names on the list were just having a statistical anomaly of a bad season or were getting their first look at major league hitting/pitching. In fact, several went on to have nice careers. Several of them did not, and for good reason.

Next week, I'll look at how the 2009 Rockies performed individually and as a team from a value standpoint.

Not-Traded Harden Loses Strike Zone; Cubs Lose 16th In Last 24 Games

Al — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 12:30:16 -0000

by Paul Beaty - AP

Not your night, Rich.

View full size photo »

Maybe the Cubs should have traded Rich Harden.

After breezing through the first two innings last night, striking out four (although throwing an alarmingly large 33 pitches), Harden completely lost touch with the strike zone in the third inning. He doubled his pitch count in that inning alone, throwing another 33 pitches, issuing three walks and allowing a key two-run single to Cub-killer Carlos Lee. C-Lee drove in four runs and now has 47 RBI in 53 career games played at Wrigley Field.

The Astros held on to beat the Cubs 5-3, and the faint Cub playoff hopes dimmed even further. I won't give up until mathematical elimination -- and that's still quite a way off -- but obviously, things don't look very good. Since August 4, when the Cubs beat the Reds in Cincinnati to go a season-high 57-49, they are 8-16 and the Cardinals are 18-5. That's both a serious decline by the Cubs and an impressive run by St. Louis; only the Yankees at 18-6 are close to the Cardinals' record in that time frame.

This is a collapse not like the 1969 team, but more comparable to 1973, when the Cubs were 48-33 on July 1, eight games in first place, and then went on an 8-25 (yes, that's right, eight and twenty-five) skid that put them 56-58, five games out on August 8. I think this team is better than the '73 team, the last of the Williams/Santo/Jenkins/Kessinger/Beckert group that had run out of gas by then; I hope this year's team has one last run left in it.

Many of you have made comparisons between the 2009 Cubs and the thoroughly unlikable 2004 bunch that blew a sure wild-card berth in the last week of the season. I think the more apt comparison for 2009 is the 2005 team, the one that seemed poorly constructed from the beginning (Jim Hendry getting fooled by Jeromy Burnitz' big year in Colorado, signing him, expecting the same sort of production), and suffering injuries to key players (Nomar Garciaparra, Mark Prior) without having suitable backups. Remember how Dusty Baker, after giving Neifi Perez over 600 plate appearances and 136 starts, said, "Neifi saved us!" To which the response was, "From what?" On August 2, 2005 the Cubs stood at 54-52, four games out of the wild card lead and, as today, behind four other teams. They proceeded to lose eight games in a row, and by the time the carnage was over on August 29, had gone 8-17 and were out of it.

This team, again, I believe to be better than that one, but time is growing short, and they're not going to win many games leaving runners on third base with less than two out, as they did last night when Kosuke Fukudome couldn't bring Derrek Lee home after he had reached second on a dropped fly ball and gone to third on one of Aramis Ramirez's three line drives to Michael Bourn. The only positive from last night was, again, the work of the bullpen, who kept the team in the game. Aaron Heilman again threw two solid innings, and along with Kevin Gregg and John Grabow combined for four shutout, three-hit, six-strikeout innings.

All they can do is go out and win tonight, win the rest of the games on this homestand and try to sneak back into things. There was a fall-like chill in the late-August air last night; hopefully, that will not be an omen. And if the Cubs do fall out of it as their 2005 counterparts did, let us hope ownership and top management doesn't fool itself into thinking they will fix things as they did over the winter of 2005-06. The 2006 season, as you know, was a disaster. If 2009 isn't going to end up happily, at least let's have some hope for 2010.

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Shortstop)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 23:15:57 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Troy Tulowitzki does what he wants.

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with my methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm tackling perhaps the most demanding position in the field (though catchers have a good argument too), shortstop.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database for my information; here's a glossary of the terms he uses and an explanation of how WAR is calculated.

Shortstop, according to Tom Tango's positional adjustment scale, is given a +7.5 adjustment. This is due to the fact that shortstops receive the most fielding chances, by and large, requiring excellent fielding technique, quickness, speed, and a strong, accurate arm. In other words, it is a physically demanding fielding position that his historically been manned by weak Punch and Judy hitters. Several Rockies' shortstops have fit this mold.

However, during the last twenty years bigger, stronger players like Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki have come into vogue at the shortstop position as players become more athletic. Many of the best positional prospects in the minor leagues and in Latin America began their careers at shortstop due to their superior athleticism.

On the whole, shortstop does not possess the depth of production for the Rockies that third base, it also has provided much more value to Colorado than catchers have. The list, after the jump...

Shortstops

Unlike other positional rankings, the names on this list are all familiar to most Rockies fans.

1. Troy Tulowitzki

Career WAR: 6.2 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 6.2, 2006-2008 (1st)
Top Season: 5.6, 2007 (1st)
Average Rank: 1

Tulo is clearly the best shortstop in Rockies franchise history, though it is largely on the strength of his fantastic 2007 season. The seventh pick of the 2005 draft had a Total Zone rating of 18 while providing a .291/.359/.479 (.361 wOBA) batting line with 24 HRs and 99 RBI while providing stellar leadership (as a rookie!) and helping to guide the Rockies to their first World Series.

Tulo's 2008 struggles have been well documented, though he did heat up in the second half. That's a trend that has continued in a big way in 2009 as Tulowitzki has been on fire since Hurdle was fired. In fact, Tulowitzki is well on his way to having a better hitting line this year (.378 wOBA) than he did in 2007--though his fielding numbers are less spectacular--and he currently has been the Rockies' most valuable position player (3.6 WAR so far).

Perhaps the best part of all this is that the Rockies have their shortstop under team control for the next five years if they want to, at a price that is more than reasonable ($29.25 guaranteed) given his probable production.

2a. Clint Barmes

Career WAR: 4.3 (T-2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 2.5, 2004-2006 (3rd)
Top Season: 2.3, 2007 (2nd)
Average Rank: 2.33

The reason that Clint Barmes is listed as a shortstop and not a second baseman is the fact that he's played 281 games at SS and 177 at 2B--and that his skill set is more that of a typical shortstop than a second sacker.

Barmes gets the tie-breaker here over Walt Weiss due to the fact that he is still producing WAR for the Rockies (and is likely to do so for next year too if Jim Tracy's mancrush remains intact). Acquired in the tenth round of the 2000 draft, Clint is an enigma, really. His stellar (and surprising) 2005 rookie season (1.6 WAR) was marred by his subsequent failings in 2006 and 2007, when he was below replacement level--after which many Rockies fans figured that we had seen the last of Clint Barmes.

Then, out of nowhere Barmes was brought up to replace Jayson Nix and excelled with the bat (.290/.322/.468) and the glove (TZ of 7) in 2008. This 2.3 WAR season gave Barmes the momentum to secure a starting slot in 2009, and while his streaky hitting has been well documented, his slick fielding has been enough to render a league average performance this year--and that's a very good thing, as league-average players don't grow on trees.

2b. Walt Weiss

Career WAR: 4.3 (T-2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 5.0, 1995-1997 (1st)
Top Season: 1.8, 1995 (1st)
Average Rank: 2.33

Walt Weiss is the shortstop that the 60s forgot--a throwback shortstop that fielded the position at an average level, did the little things well, and was mediocre at best as a hitter. The Rockies' shortstop from 1994-1997 was signed as a free agent from Florida on a two year, $2.8 million deal in 1994 to fill the hole vacated by Vinny Castilla's move to 3rd base.

Weiss OPSed .639 in 1994 and produced -0.7 WAR (with a TZ of -6), but bounced back nicely with a .724 OPS and 1.8 WAR in 1995--of course the Rockies had to have the then 32 year old back, and with a nice raise (two years, $4.3 million). Weiss rewarded Colorado's questionable confidence in him with two decent years (1.5, 1.7 WAR) that were very similar to 1995 in their tenor.

The Rockies benefitted from the steadiness/veteraniness/intangibles of Weiss and got about market level production from him--a fine outcome considering his horrible first year.

4. Juan Uribe

Career WAR: 2.3 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 2.3, 2001-2003 (4th)
Top Season: 1.2, 2001 (5th)
Average Rank: 4.33

Uribe signed with the Rockies out of the Dominican Republic in 1997 as an 18 year old and was the Rockies' starting shortstop by 2001 at 22 years old after Neifi Perez was traded. He performed very well in half a season (1.2 WAR), posting a .300/.325/.524 line (.359 wOBA) in 283 PA. Unfortunately he regressed in 2002 to a replacement level player, posting a .286 OBP in 618 PA. After that, Uribe was forced into a time-share at shortstop in 2003 with journeyman Jose Hernandez (yuck), but performed well in limited duty (1.0 WAR).

Here's where Uribe's story gets interesting: the Rockies traded the 24 year-old Uribe, who in the equivalent of two full seasons had cheaply provided over 2 WAR, to the White Sox for career minor leaguer Aaron Miles. While Miles got Rookie of the Year love in 2004 (he was fourth, well behind Jason Bay) despite producing only 0.1 WAR (and 0.2 overall in his Rockies career), Uribe went bananas for the White Sox. Uribe posted a .283/.327/.506 line and a 3.7 WAR season in 2004, then he followed it up with a 2.4 WAR season in 2005. And then, just as soon as it came, Uribe's productivity vanished, as he produced 1.1 WAR in the next three seasons for Chicago. A strange case, really.

5. Neifi Perez

Career WAR: 1.1 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 2.0, 1999-2001 (5th)
Top Season: 1.5, 2000 (4th)
Average Rank: 4.67

Neifi Perez is one of the biggest scam artists in MLB history. I mean, how else can you characterize his 11 year career? He was signed out of the DR as a 19 year old and was the starter as a 24 year old. Perez played for the Rockies for parts of six seasons and posted a negative WAR figure in three of them.

Perez did win a Gold Glove in 2000 and he managed two years of decent play (1.5 and 1.3 WARs in 2000 and 2001), which tricked the Royals into trading the Rockies Jermaine Dye for him. A 27 year old, in his prime Jermaine Dye! Of course, Dan O'Dowd turned around and traded Dye to the A's that same day for Todd Belitz, Mario Encarnacion, and Jose Ortiz. What?!?!? We could have had Jermaine Dye in his prime for Neifi Perez?!? Not that I'm bitter or anything, but Dye in Coors Field would have been awesome. I'm really glad that O'Dowd has improved his trading ability as he's gotten experience.

In his 11 year career, Perez produced a total of 0.0 WAR and was paid $21 million to do it. That's one heck of an expensive replacement player.

The Rest: Freddie Benavides (0.7), Royce Clayton (0.2), Jose Hernandez (-0.3), Desi Relaford (-0.5)

Next week: Left Fielders

Saturday Rockpile: Dan O'Dowd is bearing golden arms for playoff hunt

Poseidon's Fist — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 14:48:21 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Dan O'Dowd has gone outside the organization, effectively trading Ramon Ramirez, Aneury Rodriguez, Luis Vizcaino and Connor Graham for Jorge de la Rosa, Jason Hammel, Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt. The first three all appear to be wins, if they aren't convincing wins already. How will the Betancourt/Graham swap look?

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In his morning column, Dave Krieger accurately picks out the key to the Rockies' wild card aspirations: the pitching staff. If only the starting pitching gives them a chance to win each night, which is not always an easy task, as Krieger notes: "they had reason to be encouraged that Jason Hammel, their fourth or fifth starter, depending on the state of Jorge De La Rosa at any given moment, kept it close."

If the pitching staff is the key, it's a good thing it has been pretty special this season. Bob Apodaca muses:

"I said from Day One this potentially could be the best starting rotation I've ever had in my seven years here," Rockies pitching coach Bob Apodaca said.

"I'm sticking by my comments. Potentially, and they're making me out to be a prophet, this is the best complete rotation that the Rockies have ever had."

I'm not sure where the overly worried vibe came from here last night, but last night was a game we were supposed to lose. We can say all we want about Iannetta, Stewart and/or Atkins finding their stroke and contributing, but for the Rockies to win the wild card, it starts and ends with the rotation giving the bats a chance to win every game, including matchups pitting the back end of our rotation against an All-Star. So consider last night as having a modicum of success. We'll face the Giants 12 more times. There are plenty of chances to push them down the standings, so the sky is not falling.

Speaking of Sky, over at his Beyond the Boxscore blog, Dan Turkenkopf has unveiled his freshest BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings. He projects the Rockies to finish as the wild card with a franchise record 91 wins. When I saw 91, I had to chuckle given Rox Girl's ascertation in last night's game thread.

Our new setup man

Betancourt Shipped Out for Graham | FanGraphs Baseball
Marc Hulet at Fangraphs evaluates the Rafael Betancourt/Connor Graham swap, and despite writing the entire article from the Indians' point of view, he agrees with most pundits that the trade was smart and fair on both sides.

Missing More than is Called | FanGraphs Baseball
Matthew Carruth made an interesting point last night. Only four relievers in MLB have induced more swings-and-misses than called strikes. Betancourt is one of them.

The Venezuelan is saying all the right things, as noted in Patrick Saunders' column this morning:

"I just want to come here and help the Rockies win games... I am really excited to be here."

In the Elias player rankings released this morning, Betancourt slides in comfortably to Type B status, just below the midpoint. The righty had a strong debut last night, throwing 6 pitches, 5 for strikes, and retiring all three batters he faced.

Jim Armstrong gives kudos to O'Dowd for the trade, I think.

Carrying On Without Aramis: Cubs vs. Brewers, Saturday 5/9, 6:05 CT

Al — Sat, 09 May 2009 21:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Enough photos of A-Ram's injury. Here, Ryan Theriot steals second base Friday night. After having a poor SB percentage in 2008, Theriot is a Star Trek-like seven of nine so far this year.

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Here's the official press release regarding Aramis Ramirez going on the DL. (They need to fix the spelling of "Aramis", incidentally.) Ryan Freel will be activated for today's game and wear uniform #4.

Rather than continuing to speculate on how long A-Ram is going to be out, I thought I'd take a look at how other recent teams have done without a player of his significance. We are going to see another example of this in 2009, as the Dodgers will be playing 50 games without Manny Ramirez (so far, they're 0-2, including blowing a 6-0, sixth-inning lead to the worst team in baseball, the Nationals).

We need go back only a year to find an example with the Cubs: in 2008, Alfonso Soriano missed 53 games. The Cubs were 69-38 with Soriano in the starting lineup; 28-26 without him. Though Soriano wasn't the primary reason the Cubs won 97 games in 2008, we all remember how he got hot right after he came back in July and so did the team.

Another example from recent Cub history was the loss of Derrek Lee early in the 2006 season. Now, I'm not saying that the 2006 Cubs would have contended had D-Lee not been injured -- that was a desperately flawed team -- but they almost certainly would have won more than 66 games had Lee been in the lineup. In 2005, the Cubs lost Nomar Garciaparra for most of the season. That's when Nomar still could have made a difference. The '05 Cubs finished 10 games out of the wild card. I think having a healthy Nomar at SS, rather than "Neifi saved us" (the goofy Dusty Baker quote -- saved the Cubs from what, exactly?), might have gotten the Cubs closer to contention, though it's impossible to argue that he alone could have made a 10-game difference.

Nomar does figure into one team's failure: the 2001 Red Sox. He got hit in the hand early in the year and played only 21 games, one year after he hit .372 with a 1.033 OPS. That year's Red Sox won only 82 games and fired their manager. The next year, with a healthy Nomar hitting .310 with 120 RBI, the Red Sox won 93 games.

In 2003, Derek Jeter suffered an almost identical injury to what happened to A-Ram yesterday, on Opening Day in Toronto, when Blue Jays catcher Ken Huckaby tried to block a slide Jeter was making into 3B. Jeter's shoulder hit Huckaby's shin guard and was dislocated. He missed 36 games, but when he came back, he actually had better numbers than he had in 2002, which was one of his worst seasons. The Yankees didn't seem to miss him at all; they were 25-11 in his absence.

Now, the Cubs aren't likely to do that with Ramirez out; but if Derrek Lee, Geovany Soto and Milton Bradley, whose offensive contributions thus far have been near zero, can step up to their expected performance levels, the Cubs should be OK even if Ramirez has to miss six weeks.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Ryan Dempster Cubs	vs.	Yovani Gallardo Brewers

2-1	W-L	3-1
4.86	ERA	3.02
32	SO	39
16	BB	12
4	HR	4
vs. Mil	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ryan Dempster	2-1	6	6	0	0	0	0	37.0	34	20	20	4	16	32	4.86	1.35

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Yovani Gallardo	3-1	6	6	1	0	0	0	41.2	28	14	14	4	12	39	3.02	.96

Yovani Gallardo has no decisions in two career starts vs. the Cubs; that includes the game on May 1, 2008 at Wrigley Field in which he suffered a horrifying knee injury running the bases that put him out most of the year. Both Ryan Theriot and Kosuke Fukudome are 3-for-3 against him. Interesting Gallardo fact: on April 29 against the Pirates, he hit a solo HR, struck out 11 and won 1-0, becoming only the third pitcher in baseball history that has accomplished that feat:

The other two are Hall of Famers - Red Ruffing for the Yankees against the Washington Senators, April 13, 1932, and Early Wynn for the White Sox against the Red Sox, May 1, 1959.

Gallardo's good, but it's way too early in his career to say he should be in that company. That homer was his second of the season and fourth of his career in only 64 at-bats, so at the very least, the Cubs should pitch carefully to him.

Good news about Ryan Dempster: he has gone at least six innings in all six of his starts so far this year. Bad news about Ryan Dempster: he's gotten hit pretty hard in most of them, except his last outing vs. the Giants. He has already pitched in Miller Park this year, on April 12, a game the Cubs won largely because of Reed Johnson's grand-slam saving catch on Prince Fielder's long fly to right. Inexplicably, Jason Kendall is the Brewer who hits him best: 16-for-40 with 5 walks.

Today's game is on cable in Chicago and Milwaukee, and on EI (probably again, with just the Brewers feed). For more games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

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Overflow comment threads will post today at 7 pm, 8 pm and 8:45 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Soriano's Two HR Help Lead Cubs Over Astros 8-5, But The Chad Fox Mystery Deepens

Al — Fri, 08 May 2009 13:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Alfonso Soriano gets high-fives from Aaron Miles after his second homer of the game in the ninth inning last night.

Browse more photos »

It's a good thing Alfonso Soriano hit two home runs last night, one of them in the ninth inning, because if Chad Fox had come into the game with only a 4-2 lead, we might not be talking about a Cubs victory this morning.

Of course, Fox probably wouldn't have been in the game at all with a 4-2 lead; the only reason Lou decided to give him some work is likely the fact that the Cubs' four-run ninth gave the club a six-run lead, and that's supposed to be safe enough to give the last guy in your bullpen some work.

Safe enough, maybe; but by the time Fox was done, Lou had to summon Kevin Gregg, even though it wasn't yet a save situation. Gregg did allow the Astros' final run to score, but threw only nine pitches in finishing off the 8-5 victory, the Cubs' sixth in their last seven games. With Milwaukee's loss to Cincinnati, the Cubs moved ahead of the Brewers into sole possession of second place, 2.5 games behind the Cardinals, going into this weekend's series against the Brew Crew at Miller Park (didn't we just do this Houston/Milwaukee trip? Thanks, bad schedule makers!).

Can we declare the Chad Fox experiment over, give him his gold watch, and send him off into retirement? Did he inherit the Neifi Perez Memorial Collection of compromising photos of Jim Hendry? He couldn't find the strike zone (8 strikes in 17 pitches, and several of those strikes were hit hard) and appears done. What did he do last night that Jeff Stevens couldn't do? Stevens, despite also having some control issues at Iowa, has given up only four hits in 13 innings for a 0.85 WHIP. I hope Jim Hendry recalls Stevens; he'd be the perfect last guy in the pen, plus, that would give the Cubs at least some positive return in the Mark DeRosa deal. And can we also declare the Joey Gathright experiment over? He misplayed a ball in CF in the 9th last night (getting signals crossed with Soriano) that wound up as an Ivan Rodriguez triple. I'd DFA Gathright today when Randy Wells is called up for tonight's start and keep Bobby Scales as a bench player.

The rest of the team did just fine last night, pounding out 14 hits off Russ Ortiz (again, I ask: why does this guy still have a major league uniform) and five Houston relievers, including a shelling of Felipe Paulino in the 9th (they'd almost have been better off with Ronny Paulino pitching). Meanwhile, Ted Lilly threw a solid six innings; his only real mistake was a two-run homer to Miguel Tejada, surprisingly Tejada's first of the year, which gave the Astros a brief 2-1 lead. They didn't score again until Fox came into the game in the 9th. Four Cubs had at least two hits, and Aramis Ramirez had three, raising his average to .369.

I suppose I protest too much. The club looked good last night; even Ryan Theriot, who got picked off third base and took the Cubs out of a possible big inning in the first, redeemed himself later by walking, doubling and scoring two runs. In addition to the 14 hits, the Cubs drew five walks and continue to be on a pace that will approach the team record for a season (650, set in 1975). There are, though, a couple of players on this roster that just don't belong there, Fox and Gathright. It's time to send them home.

The Cub Can Of Worms: Neifi Perez

Al — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 15:28:24 -0000

This one ought to give you enough to talk about as we wait for the Winter Meetings to get underway next week.

Neifi Perez was signed by the Cubs on August 19, 2004, two days after he was released by the San Francisco Giants; despite playing for the team that then-Cubs manager Dusty Baker had managed for a decade, Neifi had never played for Dusty before.

This one sums up Neifi well. Trying to tag Joe Crede in 2006,
it looks like he got him, but we'll never know for sure.

photo via i.cdn.turner.com

He played ten games at Iowa (hitting .206), and when recalled in September, he played a number of games at SS after the also just-acquired Nomar Garciaparra had suffered a minor injury. In 23 games, comprising 63 at-bats in 2004, Neifi hit .371/.400/.548 with two homers and five doubles. (It was pointed out yesterday in one of the threads that this is a good small-sample-size comparison for what Micah Hoffpauir hit in his first 73 major league AB: .342/.400/.534). Neifi had never come close to numbers like that with the Rockies, Royals and Giants, but Cubs fans could have been forgiven if they thought they had at least a decent backup infielder.

Neifi was thrust into a starting role in 2005 when Nomar got hurt again, this time a horrible groin injury that made almost every male Cubs fan cringe, on April 20, 2005. He played well enough for two months (on June 5 he was hitting .325/.348/.485) that some blogs (this one and The Cub Reporter) were pushing a write-in campaign for Neifi for the All-Star team. (We were kidding. Sort of.) We weren't the only ones -- check out this MLB.com article by Carrie Muskat in which both Nomar and Derrek Lee were pushing for Neifi to be an All-Star:

"He deserves it," Lee said. "Look at his numbers. I don't think there's a shortstop with better offensive numbers."

"There should be a Cubs shortstop there, and it's the guy who's playing there right now," Garciaparra said of Perez. "He's been unbelievable. He definitely deserves it."

That, of course, was Neifi's cue to stop hitting. From June 6 to the All-Star break he hit .167/.191/.190 (no, that's not a misprint, that's a .190 SLG), and wound up the year hitting .274/.298/.383, just about exactly his career averages. Nevertheless, Dusty kept trotting him out there, mystifyingly batting him leadoff or second on many occasions, and responding to criticism with quotes like this:

"I hear a lot of people say, 'Put Cedeno in.' What am I supposed to do? Push Neifi out now? This guy has saved us."

Saved the Cubs from what, exactly, is the question Dusty never answered; they finished fourth at 79-83. But Dusty's "horse" was right back in there in 2006, starting many games at 2B or SS and producing things like the mystifying bunt he laid down with two out and two on and the Cubs down by two runs in the bottom of the ninth against the Nationals on May 18, 2006. It turned into an easy comebacker and the Cubs lost.

Jim Hendry was the one who finally "saved" the Cubs by shipping Neifi to the Tigers. Neifi should thank him, because he wound up playing in the World Series, while the Cubs lost 96 games. The next year, he was suspended twice for PED use, the second time for 80 games; that ended his major league career.

But as checkered as Neifi's Cub and post-Cub career was, we should always hold a little place in our hearts for him, because on September 27, 1998, while a member of the Rockies, he hit a walkoff homer in Coors Field against the Giants, forcing the wild-card tie and the September 28, 1998 tiebreaker game, which the Cubs won.

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Soriano's Two HR Help Lead Cubs Over Astros 8-5, But The Chad Fox Mystery Deepens

The Cub Can Of Worms: Neifi Perez