SB Nation - Tony Sipp

Game 160: Red Sox 6, Indians 2

Ryan — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 03:42:42 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

As Jason Varitek goes for a foul ball, a Sawx fan shows off his spoon-swallowing skills.

This series so far has to me felt like Spring Training games, though the two teams have different goals in mind for them. Boston's Terry Francona is trying to give his players enough playing time to stay sharp, but also keep them rested and healthy, while Eric Wedge is just trying to get this last weekend over so he can move on to other things. Meanwhile, the Indians lost their record thirteenth straight on the road.

Jeremy Sowers checked out early after giving up 3 runs on four hits and two walks, giving way to a series of relievers just getting their work in. Meanwhile, the offense had a goal to shoot for: scoring a run. The offense hadn't plated a run in over two games, and had to be closing in on some kind of team record for sustained futility. Luis Valbuena and Trevor Crowe finally broke the ice in the fifth off Daisuke Matsuzaka, but they had a couple opportunities before that, beginning with Michael Brantley's double to lead off the game. Matsuzaka took three meandering pitches to accomplish what every one good one would do; if he had to be that fine against this Indians lineup, I don't like his chances against deeper and more talented lineups in the postseason.

Next Up: Laffey vs. Beckett, 7:10 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Luis Valbuena	.091	Jeremy Sowers	-.213
Tony Sipp	.084	Jhonny Peralta	-.140
Travis Hafner	.041	Shin-Soo Choo	-.111

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

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This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

Game 144: Twins 6, Indians 3

Ryan — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 04:01:30 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Jeremy Sowers shut the Twins out through seven inning, but the bullpen imploded in the eighth.

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For seven innings the Indians played exceptional baseball, especially given the importance the game had for the Minnesota Twins. Jeremy Sowers pitched seven innings of shutout baseball, and the offense scored three runs on two home runs. Going into the eighth, it looked as through the Indians had dealt the Twins a critical blow to their playoff aspirations. Detroit had just came from behind to beat Toronto, and Minnesota was two innings away from going down 6.5 games with less than 20 games to play. The Twins have seven games left against the Tigers, but even so, there is in effect no room for error.

It was then that the Indians conveniently melted down, allowing the Twins to score six times. The disastrous eighth frame started with an Asdrubal Cabrera error on a simple backhanded play. Tony Sipp then walked Joe Mauer, bringing the tying run to the plate. No problem, for Eric Wedge had Chris Perez warming in the bullpen for this eventuality. Sipp would have stayed in had Justin Morneau been batting cleanup, but Morneau was out with an injury, so it was Michael Cuddyer at the plate, and Perez on the mound. Cuddyer blasted a game-tying three-run home run. The hilarity continued after Brendan Harris flied out for the first out of the inning; Delmon Young singled, then Matt Tolbert blooped a perfectly placed ball into shallow left field to chase Young to third. Then Lou Marson allowed a pitch to get by him to the backstop, and Young scored the go-ahead run. Jason Kubel provided the capper to the meltdown by smashing a home run into the right field upper deck.

The game doesn't really mean a whole lot to the Indians, but it was extremely depressing to see the two guys who are probably going into next season as the primary setup men completely blow a game meaningful to at least the other team.

Next Up: Carmona vs. Baker, 8:10 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Jeremy Sowers	.383	Chris Perez	-.737
Trevor Crowe	.112	Tony Sipp	-.141
Lou Marson	.073	Luis Valbuena	-.069

Fire Everyone! - Carl Willis

Jay — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:40:12 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

"Basically, Justersonster, you only get to be good for one year as long as I'm your coach. So which year is it going to be?"

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This is the third installment in a 12-part series.

The case is simple: Our pitching stinks, fire the pitching coach.

While we've seen consistently good-to-great lineups for the past four years or so, our rotation has gone from a wonderfully deep collection of quality pitchers to an utter wasteland. As for our bullpens, the words "historically bad" have been used — without hyperbole — to describe four of the last six.

In fairness to Willis, a recap is in order of some truly great pitching Indians fans have seen under his watch:

CC Sabathia (2003), Jake Westbrook (2004) and Cliff Lee (2005) all emerged as young quality starters in Willis' first three seasons with the club.
Veterans Brian Anderson (2003) and Scott Elarton (2004) had solid bounce-back seasons.
Injury-plagued Kevin Millwood (2005) won the AL ERA title in his only season with Willis, and Carl Pavano (2009) returned from a four-year hiatus to become an above-average starter.
Rafael Betancourt emerged as one of the few consistently good middle relievers in the game.
The 2005 staff led the league in ERA and allowed just 3.96 runs per game. The club essentially made it through the season using only five starters, and it was essentially just as steady and stable in 2006.
The 2005 bullpen in particular led the league in ERA and WHIP by significant margins and might have been the best in club history.
Sabathia emerged as a true ace late in the 2005 season, producing Cy Young-caliber seasons in 2007 and 2008.
Fausto Carmona (2007) produced a Cy Young-caliber season while barely more than a rookie.
Cliff Lee (2008) produced a dominant, historic season, including a unanimous Cy Young award, and one of the most remarkable comeback stories the game has ever seen.

It is an impressive list of accomplishments — which just makes it all the more amazing that there's a good case for firing the guy. On a macro level, the bullpen has been the runaway leading culprit in the trademark early-season collapses of the Wedge era. If it weren't for those four horrendous bullpens, in fact, there likely would never have been any talk whatsoever about Wedge's teams starting slow.

Despite many seemingly fine internal candidates, he has never been able to cultivate a closer. Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera withered away to nothing, and Jensen Lewis seems to be following not far behind them. A long list of pitchers have arrived in Cleveland ready to compete and even dominate — Carmona, Davis, Cabrera, Sowers, Perez, Lewis — and then, at some point before they hit the two-year mark, they just lose it. Too many of the Indians' best young pitchers seem to forget how to pitch completely, or they lose the ability to do what made them successful. And when they forget, Willis seems utterly unable to remind them.

Time after time, we see pitchers shipped down to the minors to reconstruct their games. This is in part a practical necessity, but at some point the question must be asked: Isn't the pitching coach supposed to help the pitchers, you know, pitch better?

You may not be surprised to learn that, at least from an outside perspective, Willis' minor league résumé is almost vanishingly thin. Looking at the rosters for 1997 Watertown, 1998 Burlington and 1999 Columbus (Ga.), there is an amazing lack of major league talent. Sabathia made eight starts for those clubs as he breezed through the minors, and Tim Drew and Ryan Drese each made a few starts for them. But as for the pitchers who spent significant time with Willis in the low minors, however, not a single one ever had a significant big-league career. The 2000 Aeros allow Willis to claim some credit for Danys Baez's development, and he did coach Zach Day for eight starts. Think about that: eight starts with Zach Day is Willis' second most impressive work product for those four seasons in the minors.

Willis moved up to Buffalo with Wedge for the 2001 and 2002 seasons, and he moved up to Cleveland with Wedge in 2003. Naturally, Willis couldn't help but work with future major leaguers once he was working in Triple-A, but even so, the list is pretty thin. He had 12 starts with then-prospect Westbrook and another eight with Lee. Other than that, Willis' minor league highlights are led by names like Tim Drew, Mike Bacsik and Sean DePaula.

In fairness, it was this exact, astonishing dearth of talent that led the Indians to blow up the team in 2002, and in no way am I suggesting that it's Willis' fault that there was so little talent there to work with. Still, after six years in the minors, you would hope that there would be more tangible things to point to — some pitcher, anyone, who developed into a good major leaguer, largely under Willis' tutelage — but that pitcher doesn't seem to exist. It seems that Willis owes his presence in the majors largely if not entirely to the judgment of Eric Wedge, and one shudders to consider what qualities Willis had that Wedge felt made him the best guy to be the Indians pitching coach. Is Carl Willis a grinder? Was Wedge hoping that Willis would "run into one?" Is he, in fact, the Ryan Garko of pitching coaches?

Even Willis' accomplishments fade under closer inspection. Sabathia is a unique and protean talent who arrived as a reasonably effective starting pitcher in the majors at the age of 20. You would expect an exceptional young talent like him to progress somewhat in his first few years, to have occasional setbacks, and eventually to emerge as one of the game's top pitchers. Willis deserves credit for helping Sabathia fulfill his potential, but it did take six years for it to happen, and when they started their fourth season together in 2006, it still hadn't happened. Durability aside, it would be a stretch to say that Sabathia exceeded expectations once Willis arrived.

Lee presents a similar mixed bag, as a prospect whose ceiling was always seen as a number-one starter. Again, the natural tendency is to credit Willis for some portion of Lee's miraculous rise from the gutter in 2008. The problem comes when you ask, who was Lee's pitching coach when his career careened off into that gutter in the first place? Who was his coach when his very fine 2005 season turned into a thoroughly mediocre 2006, followed by 2007, when Lee fell entirely off the depth chart? Did the Indians, on balance, get as much out of Lee as was expected, from 2005 through 2008? Even if the answer is "yes," Willis' work with Lee doesn't seem to be an overwhelming positive on the balance sheet.

And then there's the Boys of 2007: Carmona, Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez. Carmona's odd odyssey in 2006 is well documented, but he seemed to arrive in 2007 as an Instant Ace. I'd like to give Willis some credit for this, but when a veteran slugger says Carmona's power sinker is like a bad hangover, it's not clear how much credit can be given to coaching. Lewis and Perez each arrived mid-season in 2007, propelled by months of dominance in the high minors, and they kept right on going, dominating AL hitters all the way down the stretch. Lewis has struggled to pitch consistently in 2008 and 2009. Perez was a solid reliever in 2008 and has been arguably the worst reliever in the major leagues this season. Both relievers collapsed despite not having any notable injury problems. As for Carmona, he may well be the single most brutally disappointing player Indians fans have followed this decade.

Among the three pitchers, these three facts seem consistent:

They arrived and performed at the very high level portended by their track records.
Willis played no significant role in their development as prospects.
They have all totally collapsed since their first full seasons in the majors.

Without breakout performances from Perez and Lewis in 2007, we'd be talking about four historically awful bullpens in four consecutive seasons, rather than in just three seasons out of the last four. Following the 2006 debacle, the Indians spent relatively heavily on bullpen options, bringing in Hernandez, Fultz, and Borowski for 2007. Masa Kobayashi was brought in to fortify what was viewed as promising core in 2008, which turned into another debacle. Topping prior efforts, the Indians acquired Kerry Wood and Joe Smith for 2009 — once again hoping to bolster a solid core of Betancourt, Perez and Lewis — and the Triple-A club was stocked with solid minor league free agents and a few dominating prospects, led by Tony Sipp. Yet once again, the bullpen crumbled completely and tanked the season early.

Reliever performances are maddeningly hard to project — functionally impossible in fact — but it should be clear at this point that small samples alone cannot explain the wild swings in performance for pitchers like Lewis and Perez. No scout would claim they are the same pitchers they were in 2007, or that Carmona is. At one point, they knew how to pitch successfully, and now, they don't. One wonders if within the next few years, their careers will become just as insubstantial as those who came before them, like Davis and Cabrera.

If the bullpen is any significant part of Willis' responsibilities, then his performance must be considered a failure at this point. The best we can say for the man's tenure with the Indians is that for the most elite pitching talent, in their prime, he has helped them to achieve their potential, and he has helped a few rehabbed retreads put together some nice make-good seasons. Both of these types of contributions have been very useful to the club. For pitchers who were not already established, however, and not elite talents coming out of the minors, the overall pitching productivity under Willis has been simply abysmal.

One more factor worth considering is the availability of Leo Mazzone, the well-known pitching coach for the 1990s Atlanta Braves. In addition to coaching three pitchers to six Cy Young awards, Mazzone is also the subject of a comparative statistical study that showed that pitchers coached by him tended to lower their ERA by an average of half a run. Neither of these facts are conclusive as to Mazzone's true ability, but then, nothing ever is when it comes to coaches. We can't know for sure how much good or harm Willis has done, or how much of the Braves' immense pitching success was owed to Mazzone. Clubs have to make decisions in the absence of real certainty, with coaches just as much as players.

It may seem callous (and even "un-Shapiro") to kick Willis to the curb just because someone better is available. Maybe it is callous. It's also the kind of thing that organizations do when they're serious about competing. We could badly use a coach with a knack for turning fringy pitchers into decent major league starters and relievers — and by "we" I mean "Jeremy Sowers and David Huff." Mazzone has shown that knack, and Willis hasn't. Under the current leadership, if the Indians have the worst bullpen in the majors next season, not one person will be able to claim surprise. Maybe Willis has done nothing to cause those disasters, but he certainly hasn't prevented them. Whatever his accomplishments here, it's time to fire the pitching coach.

Game 141: Royals 2, Indians 1

afh4 — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 02:49:25 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

"Flo" from Progressive threw out the first pitch.

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Justin Masterson pitched in and out of trouble all night, inducing two double plays when his back was against the wall Despite his four walks, Masterson held the Royals to just one run over 6. Zack Greinke was his usual magical self through seven innings but Trey Hillman pulled him at just 102 pitches and one earned run; Greinke's last start was a 120+ pitch performance against the Angels. Tony Sipp and Chris Perez were brilliant through 3 innings of relief.

The Royals bullpen is truly atrocious and Hillman handed the ball to Kyle Farnsworth and his 5.00+ ERA for the final two innings. He worked a clean slate in the eigth but then characteristically started to come unglued in the ninth. After putting two on, he gave up a single to Jhonny Peralta; Skinner flashed back to games that mattered and sent Cabrera home despite it being a short single into LF, where David DeJesus and his strong arm waited. Cabrerea was cut down at the plate meaning Travis Hafner would have to get a hit for the Indians to win the game in regulation. Hafner waved at strike three and the game went to extras.

Going with Perez in the top of the ninth was, if I'm not mistaken, against the book, in that the closer is expected in the top of the ninth in the tie game of a home game. When Wedge stuck with Perez for the tenth, it was an unusual, though certainly not indefensible decision. I'm not much for this whole line of speculation but if you're looking for the "denying Wood games to finish" evidence, this is about as close as we've gotten. Chris made it a tactical moot point by plowing through the Royals for a second straight inning to make a final line of 2.0 IP, 1 BB and 3K. Since joining the Indians, Perez (Mercedes?) has 32 strikeouts in 25.2 innings. These are essentially the same strikeout numbers as in St. Louis; the difference is that Perez has halved his walks.

The Royals turned to Jamey Wright to try to hold the Indians at bay in the tenth. If it seems like I'm foreshadowing that Wright would lose the game, that's because I was writing this along with the game, waiting to go for dinner, and I was hoping that was the case. It wasn't, and Valbuena-LaPorta-Marte went 1-2-3 against the suddenly indomitable Jamey Wright. In the top of the eleventh, Wedge again stayed away from Wood and went with Jose Veras, who somehow worked a scoreless inning.

Frankly, I lost interest in this an hour ago. I mean, seriously who's watching this? Sigh. Come on. Somebody hit a home run. Who's coming up? Marson, Brantley, and Cabrera. Who's my best shot there? I told these people I'd meet them for dinner an hour ago. Alright, Brantley took a walk. Come on. Just hit a double or something, Astro. It's still Jamey Wright on the mound. How is this still going on?

In the eleventh, Asdrubal grounded out to move Brantley to second; after an intentional walk to Choo, Peralta stepped in and singled to left! JP singled! And...Brantley was out at home on the throw from DeJesus. That's twice, Skinner.

Top 12. Still Veras (seriously, what?). Homerun Miguel Olivo. Well, alright.

So, that's it. Miguel Olivo took Jose Veras yard in the top of the 12th and the Indians lost. What has happened to us?

Game 136: Indians 3, Twins 1

Ryan — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 20:10:21 -0000

by Tony Dejak - AP

David Huff went seven strong innings, long enough for his teammates to take the lead.

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The Indians skipped David Huff's last turn in the rotation in order to keep his innings down, since Huff was on track to blow by his 2008 innings total. The rest apparently helped, for Huff pitched of his best games as a pro, allowing just an earned run in seven innings on six base runners (2 hits, 4 walks). This was David's fourth start against the Twins this season, so his success certainly wasn't due to unfamiliarity.

Meanwhile, the Indians face Nick Blackburn for their fourth time this season, and while they didn't have the kind of success against him they had previously, they did take the lead in the seventh while he was still on the mound. Michael Brantley pushed across the go-ahead run with his second single of the game. Brantley has gotten a hit in each of his first six games as a pro.

Tony Sipp and Kerry Wood finished things up with two scoreless innings between them. Sipp has given up one earned run since August 1st, and Wood, although he's had very few save opportunities since the beginning of August, he hasn't blown any of them. The bullpen, which had been a disaster, is now one of the stronger parts of this team.

Next Up: Hunter vs. Carrasco, 6:05 PM

The upload blew up, so here's a link to the graph.

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
David Huff	.285	Shin-Soo Choo	-.130
Michael Brantley	.212	Matt LaPorta	-.126
Asdrubal Cabrera	.111	Andy Marte	-.083

Game 129: Indians 5, Orioles 3

Ryan — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 05:10:37 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Wyatt Toregas practices his steeplechase skills during a rain delay. The flooded dugouts caused a considerable delay.

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The major difference between the Indians of the first half and the Indians in the past month has been the bullpen. Early in the season, a rain delay in the middle innings with the score close would have meant an almost automatic loss. Now, with the bullpen stabilized, the Indians are winning these battles of the bullpens.

The Baltimore grounds crew quickly pulled the tarp over the infield in the bottom of the fifth, and the delay was long enough to remove both starters from the game. Jeremy Sowers had given up his second run of the game just before the game was delayed, so the Indians were behind when play removed. But the hot-hitting duo of Matt LaPorta and Andy Marte quickly changed, for after Luis Valbuena singled in the sixth, LaPorta followed with a single of his own, and Marte drove them both home with another home run. That margin was all the bullpen needed. Tony Sipp finished the seventh and the whole of the eighth, and Chris Perez pitched the ninth to notch his first save as an Indian.

LaPorta ended the game with a perfect 4-for-4 line, and both he and Andy Marte have hit in ten straight games. Both were moved up in the lineup tonight, though Marte still hit behind LaPorta. Two weeks' worth of at-bats shouldn't make a long-term decision, but at the very least Marte has hit his way onto next year's roster as at least a part-time player. The Indians had always seen LaPorta as a everyday player, and his recent hot streak has only reinforced those views.

Next Up: Masterson vs. Matusz, 1:35 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Andy Marte	.301	Kelly Shoppach	-.123
Matt LaPorta	.200	Chris Gimenez	-.088
Tony Sipp	.118	Shin-Soo Choo	-.077

Game 122: Indians 4, Mariners 3 (11 Innings)

Ryan — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 03:18:51 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

4 months ago: Cleveland Indians' Luis Valbuena, top right, is congratulated by teammates after hitting a game-winning solo home run off Seattle Mariners pitcher Randy Messenger in the 11th inning in a baseball game, Saturday, Aug. 22, 2009, in Cleveland. The Indians won 4-3. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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After giving up three first-inning runs, Aaron Laffey and the rest of the Indians pitching staff held the Mariners off the board. Aaron had his share of troubles, giving up 10 base runners in his seven innings of work. But he kept the Indians in the game, and when Michael Saunders couldn't catch a relatively routine Luis Valbuena fly ball, the Indians were in a position to tie the game.

The most dramatic change as the season has gone on has been the bullpen's metamorphosis from basket case to a genuinely promising group of young relievers. Chris Perez, who has quickly become the top setup man on the team, recovered after giving up a leadoff double to retire the next three Mariners in the eighth. All three outs (two strikeouts and a fly ball) came with a runner on third. After Wood pitched the ninth, Eric Wedge went with matchup baseball, bringing in Tony Sipp, then Joe Smith, and finally Rafael Perez. Perez has been torched by left-handers this season, gave up a hard-hit single to the left-handed Saunders, but somehow got Ichiro to pop up harmlessly on a 3-0 pitch to end the top of the eleventh.

The Indians finally broke through in the bottom of the inning, when Luis Valbuena hammered a walk-off homer down the right field line.

Next Up: Carmona vs. Hernandez, 1:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

HIghest WPA		Lowest WPA
Luis Valbuena	.509	Jhonny Peralta	-.228
Joe Smith	.230	Asdrubal Cabrera	-.214
Kerry Wood	.143	Shin-Soo Choo	-.148

Game 117: Indians 7, Twins 4

Ryan — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 23:41:15 -0000

More photos » by Tom Olmscheid - AP

The Indians shocked Joe Nathan and the Twins by winning the rubber game of the series 7-4.

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Aaron Laffey just went 5.1 innings, but the bullpen was fantastic, holding a four run lead into the ninth inning. It makes you wonder where this team would be, even with the poor starting rotation, if the bullpen hadn't imploded at the beginning of the season. Or maybe it's just the competition that's making the Indians look good.

As with yesterday's win, the Indians had a big offensive inning. After Twins starter Nick Blackburn breezed through the first couple innings, the Indians jumped on him in the third. Kelly Shoppach and Luis Valbuena homered back-to-back to open the inning, and after Andy Marte got hit, Grady Sizemore went deep for his second home run in as many days. The Indians would keep the inning go after the home run barrage, for Jamey Carroll singled next, and Asdrubal Cabrera drove him home with a sliced double down the left field line. Blackburn would be pulled two batters later. The Twins have had very poor pitching as of late, with Swarzak and Blackburn especially struggling.

Laffey got out of a particularly dangerous jam in the bottom of the fourth. He loaded the bases with three walks, and faced Delmon Young with one out. Young, who had taken Laffey deep his last time at-bat, grounded into a double play, and that turned out to be the at-bat of the game. Joe Smith, Tony Sipp, and Chris Perez held the Twins at bay after Laffey left, and Kerry Wood allowed a run but closed the game out in the ninth.

Hopefully Jamey Carroll is only playing the outfield so that the Indians can trade him for a real-life prospect tomorrow.

Next Up: The Angels come to town on Tuesday. TBD vs. Carmona, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Grady Sizemore	.201	Aaron Laffey	-.059
Kelly Shoppach	.100	Travis Hafner	-.058
Luis Valbuena	.092	Agent M	-.005

Nick Blackburn Continues Skid, Twins Season Slipping Away

Jesse — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 22:12:13 -0000

More photos » by Tom Olmscheid - AP

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Nick Blackburn firmly believes this is not the best day of his life during a baseball game Sunday, Aug. 16, 2009 in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Tom Olmscheid)

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Twins 4, Indians 7

I understand that you need to get Joe Nathan a little work. But when he took a shot off his ankle/heel, I couldn't help but think that it was like a Ferrari owner getting upset when his new car got a dent after being entered in a demolition derby. There's just something a little sad about running out your prize stallion when he's better off in the stable.

Today's game was highlighted (and I use that term lightly) by two scoreless innings by Nick Blackburn to lead off the game, a two-run Delmon Young home run, and then a bunch of wasted opportunities. Following Young's sixth homer of the season, here's a miserable summary of how the team handled situations with their own men on base the rest of the way.

Bottom of the 3rd: After Denard Span singles, Orlando Cabrera grounds into a double play.
Bottom of the 4th: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede all earn walks to load the bases with one out. Young grounds into an inning-ending double play.
Bottom of the 5th: Nick Punto leads off with a single. Span and Cabrera go quietly before Joe Mauer laces a liner between Shin-Soo Choo and the left field line. Choo makes a nice sliding play to snare it for the third out.
Bottom of the 6th: After Jason Kubel walks with one away, Cuddyer and Crede can't move him around.
Bottom of the 7th: With one away, Punto doubles and Span walks. Cabrera grounds into another double play.
Bottom of the 8th: Mauer picks up a lead-off single. Morneau, Kubel and Cuddyer are retired in succession.

There were just so many missed opportunities by the offense, and yet they still managed to score four runs. But when they get men on base in eight innings and only score in two of them, that constitutes a failure.

Blackburn's third inning was the inning that would never end. Home run (3-1), strike, home run (3-2), ball, hit by pitch, ball, ball, home run (3-4), strike, strike, ball, foul, foul, single, ball, double (3-5), foul, foul, OUT, strike, foul, ball, single (3-6), pulled from the game. 23 pitches was all it took to absolutely destroy Nick. Hell, that 3-0 lead was erased in about two minutes. Honestly, just eight pitches. There's no other word to describe it other than catostrophic.

Jesse Crain stacked up a pitch count, but got through 1.2 innings and allowed just one run. Oddly enough, that performance lowers his ERA. By this time it was just the fourth inning, and although the score was 7-3 that's still plenty of time to put together a run; to chip away at what was (in spite of how it felt) only a four-run lead. But we know how that turned out.

Jeff Manship pitched around a pair of walks and a hit to earn 1.2 scoreless innings, and Jose Mijares pitched through the seventh. Matt Guerrier and Joe Nathan then combined for a pair of scoreless innings to complete the night.

Once the Indians scored six in the third, the entire makeup of the game changed. Cleveland starter Aaron Laffey picked up a little luck with some help from his defense, and he topped it off by getting more than one Minnesota hitter to hack at balls outside of the zone. High fastballs, tailing sliders, changeups out of the zone, it was maddening. And it didn't stop with Laffey. John Smith and Tony Sipp, in the middle innings when the Twins still had opportunities AND time, continued to take advantage of an offense that was pressing itself. The results, for Minnesota, were ugly.

The Tigers lost today, but as of this writing the White Sox are leading Oakland by a run in the eighth. If this plays out, the Twins will still be trailing Detroit by six games, but they'll also be trailing Chicago by four-and-a-half. Forget about the Wild Card; Minnesota is 10.5 out on that front, and about to head to Wild Card leader Texas. Yes, to Texas, where a bullpen that's been winded the last two days will be largely unavailable for at least the heat of game one.

I'm praying for a sweep of the Rangers. And a little help.

Studs
#3: Delmon Young (1-for-4, HR, 2 RBI, R, -.007 WPA)
#2: Denard Span (2-for-4, BB, RBI, .022 WPA)
#1: Nick Punto (2-for-3, 2B, BB, R, .061 WPA)

Duds
#1: Nick Blackburn (2.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 3 HR, 2 K, -.482 WPA)
#2: Orlando Cabrera (0-for-5, 2 GIDP, 5 LOB, -.210 WPA, although again some nice defense)
#3: Delmon Young (Both lists, I know, but that bases-loaded GIDP sucked)