SB Nation - Wyatt Toregas

Transactions: Shoppach Traded

Ryan — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:18:04 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Andy Marte is the winner of the Coco Crisp Trade Survivor contest.

Traded C Kelly Shoppach to Tampa Bay for a Player to be Named Later

Kelly's career stats:

There are several factors that contributed up to this trade. First, and most importantly, the Indians have two young catchers (Lou Marson, and later Carlos Santana) that they'd like to get a good look at this year. They could have waited until they thought Santana was ready to handle a major league staff to trade him, but there was little chance that he would remain with the team through the 2010 season.

Shoppach is also in his second year of arbitration, and is due for a small raise from his $1.95M 2009 salary. Kelly's offense fell off dramatically in 2009, though he still managed a 98 OPS+, still very good for a catcher. Shoppach's offensive game is always going to be an amended Three True Outcomes (home runs, strikeouts, and, in hit by pitches), but last season the strikeouts were up and the power was down. I don't see 2009 as part of a downward trend for Kelly, though. Finally, Kelly was very critical of organization after the Victor Martinez trade, and while that criticism probably had little to do with the trade, it also made dealing him in the offseason an easier call than if he had embraced his opportunity after the trade. I still think he was going to be dealt sooner or later, but it would have made more sense to wait until during the 2010 season to do it, since his value might have gone up with better offensive production.

The trade means that Lou Marson will be the Indians' Opening Day catcher, and most likely that Wyatt Toregas will be his backup. Carlos Santana is slated to spend some time in AAA until the Indians feel he's ready defensively.

The Indians, as is often their tactic, will choose a player from an agreed-to list. The deadline for making the pick is December 20th, so I'll comment on the player then.

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

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This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

Game 150: Athletics 11, Indians 4

Ryan — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 23:41:56 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Fausto Carmona only gave up runs in two innings. But what innings they were.

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I suppose the one saving grace of this hideous September is that it will force major changes in the Indians organization. The Indians are now tied for last place in the AL Central, and just one game ahead of Baltimore for the worst record in the American League. Now they aren't just losing close games, but being blown out of games. Thanks to an awful starting rotation, a complete deterioration of the offense, and other unquantifiable aspects, the Indians are going to end the season falling at maximum velocity.

Fausto Carmona did pitch very well for a portion of today's start, but when you give up nine runs in the surrounding innings, that stretch is for all intents and purposes meaningless. He did, for once, make the opposing team earn their runs; he walked one, but gave up ten base hits and faced an incredible 29 hitters in his 5.2 innings pitched.

So, what's next for this team? After getting swept by a team playing out the string, a series against a team that has everything to play for. See you on Tuesday, if your stomach is strong enough.

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Michael Brantley	.054	Fausto Carmona	-.333
Trevor Crowe	.006	Wyatt Toregas	-.062
		Shin-Soo Choo	-.049

Game 135: Twins 4, Indians 1

Ryan — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 01:02:18 -0000

by Mark Duncan - AP

Justin Masterson was wild, but effective.

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As we wind down the 2009 season, it seems to me that the Indians are in pretty good shape as far as position players are concerned. And the rebuilt rebuilt bullpen has been tremendous. But I'm still scared about the rotation going forward.There's some talent among the starting group, but also a lot of risk.

Today's outing by Justin Masterson looks pretty good if you look at it superficially; he allowed just one earned one on 5 hits. But the five walks to me are a red flag. He's given up 20 walks in his past five starts, so this game's wildness isn't a fluke. Wildness eventually will catch up to a pitcher, no matter how good his stuff, and shorten his outing. Short outings by a starter place more pressure on a bullpen, which will have negative effects on the relief staff as the season goes along.

Scott Baker may have a pedestrian 4.44 ERA, but he might as well be Roy Halladay when he faces the Indians. In his three starts prior to today, the Indians are hitting just .138/.169/.225 (MLB as a whole is hitting .246/.284/.417). His line today (6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 4 BB) mirrored Masterson's but usually a high walk count isn't a problem for him (31 walks in 160 innings pitched).

The only offense the Indians managed came on one swing of the bat. Andy Marte went deep off Baker in the third, his fifth of the season.

Next Up: Blackburn vs. Huff, 1:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Justin Masterson	.080	Luis Valbuena	-.146
Wyatt Toregas	.071	Jamey Carroll	-.145
Andy Marte	.022	Matt LaPorta	-.112

Game 134: Indians 5, Twins 2

Ryan — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 02:26:00 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Jeremy Sowers.

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After getting swept in Detroit, the Indians continued to help the Tigers' AL Central hopes tonight by defeating their closest competitor.

Jeremy Sowers pitched one of his cleanest games of the year, allowing 2 earned runs on seven base runners (6 hits, 0 walks, 1 HBP) in six innings. Jeremy's pitching this month for a spot on next year's roster, whether it be in the rotation of in the bullpen. The Indians can't option out Sowers any more, so that means if he doesn't make the 25-man roster next season, he'll probably be in somebody else's organization. Before the All-Star Break, it looked like there was no way Sowers would be part of the 2010 Indians. But since the break, Sowers has a 3.71 ERA in 7 starts (not including tonight), and for the first time since his initial stint in the majors looks like a viable major-league starter.

Before tonight's game, it was announced that Grady Sizemore would undergo season-ending surgery. Not only on his elbow, but also on his groin. The groin problem explains why Sizemore hasn't run much this season, and had to have an adverse effect on his defense. And frankly, that Sizemore managed to hit .248/.343/.445 while playing a very demanding defensive position is amazing.

Michael Brantley will fill in for Grady both in center field and the leadoff spot. Brantley, at least at this stage of his career, is a much different hitter than Sizemore, but he's impressed me all the same in his few major-league at-bats. In the sixth, he did a great job of inside-outing a Carl Pavano pitch to drive in a run with two outs.

Kelly Shoppach, on the other hand, has looked terrible recently (.192/.302/.365 in August). He struck out three times tonight, all on swings and misses. He'll probably be losing playing time to Lou Marson after the AAA season ends, and although I think the Indians should keep him around another year, if they feel that Marson and Wyatt Toregas can hold down the fort until Carlos Santana is ready, then he's very expendable.

Next Up: Baker vs. Masterson, 4:10 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Jeremy Sowers	.145	Kelly Shoppach	-.076
Jamey Carroll	.124	Matt LaPorta	-.073
Travis Hafner	.107	Andy Marte	-.069

Game 128: Orioles 13, Indians 4

Ryan — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 03:42:36 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

The tarp should have stayed on.

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The Indians had a couple chances to stay in the ballgame for at least a couple innings longer, but the game would eventually get put completely out of reach in the late innings.

Fausto Carmona brought the same gameplan to the mound tonight as he had used in his last outing, but this time his location wasn't on. Tonight the four-seam fastballs weren't on the corners, but in the middle of the plate, and he often wasn't able to use his sinker or changeup because he was behind in the count. He couldn't make it through the fifth, and this time the bullpen couldn't hold the Orioles down long enough for the Indians to mount a comeback.

The offense missed some golden opportunities, but there were some bright spots. Matt LaPorta went deep again; he was one of four Indians with two hits. Andy Marte got on base twice, and looks like he's gotten a lot more comfortable with consistent playing time.

Next Up: Sowers vs. Tillman, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Asdrubal Cabrera	.120	Fausto Carmona	-.365
Andy Marte	.041	Luis Valbuena	-.114
Travis Hafner	.036	Wyatt Toregas	-.104

Game 121: Mariners 9, Indians 4

Ryan — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 03:01:08 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Writhing in agony, ~~Adrian Monk~~ Jamey Carroll braved the dirt in order to slide in ahead of the tag.

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After a 1-2-3 first inning, David Huff got into and remained in trouble for the rest of his short outing. Two walks to lead off the second lead to a run, and would have been worse if not for a line drive double play. In the third, he allowed four straight Mariners to reach base after he retired the first batter of the inning. This time Seattle scored twice. Finally, he gave up a home run and double in the fourth, and that was it for him. Huff probably should have been pitching in AAA all season, so it's too early to write off Huff from the rotation of the future. But his struggles in 2009 will probably mean he'll have to work his way back of the depth chart next spring.

The Indians scored four runs, but three of them came after the game had been largely put out of reach. Andy Marte drove in two of the runs, including a game-tying tally in the second.

Next Up: Laffey vs. Fister, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

HIghest WPA		Lowest WPA
Andy Marte	.095	David Huff	-.270
Shin-Soo Choo	.046	Tomo Ohka	-.112
Wyatt Toregas	.030	Grady Sizemore	-.106

Game 104: Detroit 4, Cleveland 3 (12 Innings)

Ryan — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 03:43:09 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Grady, gravity defier.

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Now we're into that awkward phase, where the core players that were going to be traded have been traded, but the prospects that are supposed to take their places haven't come up yet. Hence tonight's lineup, with Wyatt Toregas catching, Chris Gimenez at first, Trevor Crowe in left, and Jeremy Sowers on the mound. And the Indians almost pulled off a win.

Rick Porcello, the best pitching prospect in the 2007 draft, showed the Indians a preview of what they can expect over the next six years. The Tigers were able to pick Porcello late in the first round because they were willing to go above MLB's "suggested" slot value, which earned them Bud Selig's ire... and Rick Porcello. The 20-year-old spent just a year in the minors, and made Detroit's Opening Day rotation. Despite being on a very strict pitch count, Porcello went eight full innings, allowing just four hits. 15 of the 24 Indian outs came on the ground.

Jeremy Sowers again started very well, not allowing a hit until the fifth inning, but things really fell apart for him then. He allowed three base runners and a run in the fifth, and four base runners in the sixth, and another run. That the Tigers didn't break the game open during those two innings was a minor miracle. After Sowers escaped the sixth, Justin Masterson made his Cleveland debut, going the final three innings of regulation without allowing a run. Justin will be stretched out into a starter over the next couple of weeks, and given that he'll probably be taking over for Sowers in the rotation, it makes sense that he lines up with Jeremy's starts.

The Indians spoiled Fernando Rodney's perfect record in save situations, tying the game on an Asdrubal Cabrera triple and a Jhonny Peralta sacrifice fly. They had opportunities in each of the extra innings, but only scored one run, and that was after Detroit had taken a two-run lead. Jose Veras allowed the two runs in the twelfth. The damage was largely self-inflicted; he walked the first two batters of the inning, and also balked home a run. That balked-in run was the difference in the game.

Next Up: Pavano vs. Galarraga, 1:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Higher WPA		Lower WPA
Asdrubal Cabrera	.343	Jose Veras	-.403
Jhonny Peralta	.166	Wyatt Toregas	-.372
Justin Masterson	.155	Chris Gimenez	-.301

Minor League Overview: The Hitters

APV — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 14:25:31 -0000

More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

New Indians catcher, Lou Marson, wondering how Carlos Santana likes his coffee

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Following up on yesterday's look at the pitchers, here is an overview of how the hitters in the Indians system have fared this year. A few breakouts, a few disappointments, but mostly it has been a steady as she goes season so far...

Progress Score Leaders

Carlos Santana: 10.6
Michael Brantley: 8.8
Nick Weglarz: 8.1
Lou Marson: 7.7
Andy Marte: 7.6
Matt LaPorta: 7.4
Lonnie Chisenhall: 6.9
Carlos Rivero: 6.2
Wyatt Toregas: 5.6
John Drennen/Abner Abreu: 5.2

A few surprises, no? First, Carlos Santana, as will become apparent throughout this overview, is in a class by himself. He almost makes you wish we could have signed Casey Blake in the off-season just to trade him back to LA this year. The surprises on this list are because of two things: progress score builds into it a substantial positional component (hence all the catchers, middle infielders and guys who can manage CF), and it works off of OPS adjusted for luck and park effects. Michael Brantley and Carlos Rivero, for example, have both been pretty unlucky on balls in play according to minorleaguesplits.com. In Rivero's case, though, this seems to be a chronic condition and something which would be nice to see reversed at some point. John Drennen has quietly had a solid season. And Marson was clearly just a throw-in from Philly (Jason Donald's 2008 numbers would be good for a 6.3, also).

NET Leaders

Michael Brantley: 54
Carlos Santana: 44
Nick Weglarz: 36
Cord Phelps: 25
Matt McBride: 23
Jose Constanza: 21
Andy Marte: 18
Chris Arnal: 18
Matt LaPorta: 16
Jared Goedert: 14

NET puts a premium on control of the strike zone and speed, so seeing Brantley and Santana on the top of the list (again) shouldn't be surprising. It is somewhat surprising, and a good thing, to see Marte and LaPorta on the list. If we look at last year's numbers for our top prospects, it is striking how the guys NET likes have generally done quite well this season (Santana, Brantley, Wegz, Valbuena, Chisenhall, LaPorta), and the guys NET didn't like (Rivero, Hodges, Mills) have struggled.

Lots more...

OPS Leaders

Andy Marte: 963
Carlos Santana: 935
Jordan Brown: 910
Matt LaPorta: 901
Matt McBride: 857
Nick Weglarz: 855
Abner Abreu: 839
Lonnie Chisenhall: 835
Jared Head: 809
Nate Recknagel: 808

It is nice to see a few of our young guys who were placed somewhat aggressively by the organization, Abreu and Chisenhall, rise the occasion. Compare this list with the adjusted OPS leaders (using minorleaguesplits.com algorithm for luck and park effects).

adjusted OPS Leaders

Carlos Santana: 1039
Andy Marte: 985
Matt LaPorta: 955
Nick Weglarz: 944
Nate Recknagel: 939
Jordan Brown: 881
Lonnie Chisenhall: 880
Matt McBride: 862
Chris Gimenez: 839
Adam Abraham: 821

The top of this list is pretty nice. You might be wondering who Recknagel and Abraham are. They are former teammates from the University of Michigan, both 2008 draftees, and both too old to get excited about while playing in Lake County (Abraham is being converted into a catcher, so he has some excuse, but Recknagel is a no defense all offense guy).

OBP Leaders

Trevor Crowe: 401
Carlos Santana: 398
Nick Weglarz: 389
Lou Marson: 384
Cord Phelps: 380
Matt LaPorta: 378
Jordan Brown: 377
Jose Constanza: 370
Andy Marte: 369
Mickey Hall: 366

So this is what Trevor Crowe is supposed to do...To weed out the guys who are getting buy on high batting average, here are the walk-rate leaders.

BB/PA (%) Leaders

Mickey Hall: 18.7
Nick Weglarz: 17.4
Cord Phelps: 16.4
Carlos Santana: 16.4
Tim Fedroff: 14.3
Trevor Crowe: 14.3
Karexon Sanchez: 13.2
Matt Brown: 12.7
Lou Marson: 12.7
Jose Constanza/Lucas Montero: 11.4

This list has a bunch of guys who are probably old for their level and finding success at the top of the order. It is nice to see 2008 draftees Phelps and Fedroff doing something well, though. I was surprised to see Karexon Sanchez on this list, only because I think of him more as a massive strikeout guy (25.6%) than a plate discipline guy.

K/PA (%) Leaders

Bo Greenwell: 8.1
Chris Arnal: 8.9
Michael Brantley: 9.5
Matt McBride: 11.3
Niuman Romero: 11.8
Jared Goedert: 11.9
Carlos Rivero: 12.8
Jose Constanza: 13.1
Jordan Brown: 13.6
Adam Abraham: 14.3

For Brantley, this is actually a major regression from his out of this world number last year (5.7%). Of course, after getting off to a rough start this season Brantley's numbers have been slowly coming back. In July he struck out in just 3.1% of his plate appearances (3 times in 97 trips to the plate). And to complete the plate discipline section, the following guys all have more walks than strikeouts: Brantley (1.15 BB:K), Phelps (1.11), Greenwell (1.09), Santana (1.09), Weglarz (1.03) and Arnal (1.00).

SLG% Leaders

Andy Marte: 593
Carlos Santana: 537
Jordan Brown: 532
Matt LaPorta: 523
Matt McBride: 508
Abner Abreu: 488
Lonnie Chisenhall: 487
Nick Weglarz: 466
Nate Recknagel: 466
Jared Head: 444

And for those who prefer to removing the batting average component...

ISO (SLG-BA) Leaders

Andy Marte: 266
Carlos Santana: 257
Matt LaPorta: 226
Nick Weglarz: 223
Lonnie Chisenhall: 210
Matt McBride: 208
Jordan Brown: 199
Chris Gimenez: 199
Nate Recknagel: 196
Abner Abreu: 183

Andy Marte really wasn't fooling around in July (.487 ISO) and because of that, is at the top of these lists. Lonnie Chisehall's appearance here is evidence of his very successful season at the plate so far and a good sign for a player of his age. This list does make you wish the Indians drafted guys with power, though, doesn't it...And, because repeating this phrase brings a sense of calm to me: Carlos Santana.

HR Leaders

Carlos Santana: 19
Andy Marte: 18
Lonnie Chisenhall: 16
Nick Weglarz: 15
Matt McBride: 14
Nate Recknagel: 13
Matt LaPorta: 13
Jordan Brown: 12
Beau Mills: 10
Karexon Sanchez: 8

An old fashioned HR-leaderboard finally gives us a peak at Beau Mills and his disappointing 2009. I really thought this was going to be a breakout year for him after consolidating some of his skills at the plate last year...not so much. He has been slowly getting better month by month, but not nearly what was expected of him. No positional player has had as rough a year as Mills, who probably would have a hard time cracking a top-15 list of Indians prospects were you to put one together today.

XBH Leaders

Matt McBride: 47
Andy Marte: 43
Jordan Brown: 43
Carlos Santana: 41
Lonnie Chisenhall: 41
Matt LaPorta: 36
Nate Recknagel: 35
Nick Weglarz: 34
Beau Mills: 34
John Drennen: 32

Chicks might dig the long balls, but doubles and triples are nice, too.

Net SB Leaders

Michael Brantley: 27
Jose Constanza: 13
Lucas Montero: 10
Chris Arnal: 8
Karexon Sanchez/Jason Donald: 7

This is SB-2*CS, to account for the detrimental effect of getting caught stealing. I keep this to a top 5 (6) because while the Indians have a lot of guys who steal bases in the minors, most of them aren't doing a very good job of it. Cord Phelps is fast (apparently), but actually manages a -10 because he gets caught so much. Even Constanza and Montero get caught more than they should. Michael Brantley seems to know what he is doing on the basepaths, though.

The Movers

Going up...

Lonnie Chisenhall has done a lot to quiet his skeptics. The move off of SS lowers his positional value, and it will be nice if his improvements at third continue, but the emergence of his power this season is a great sign. His secondary components have room for improvement, but neither his walk-rate or K-rate are in the red flag territory.

Andy Marte has given himself the chance at a second life with Cleveland (maybe). He's been pretty solid all season, but his numbers are buoyed considerably by his torrid July. It'll be interesting to see if major league pitchers still exploit him at the plate.

Abner Abreu was having a great full season debut until he separated his shoulder. He has worrying plate discipline issues (one of the reasons it would have been nice to get him another 200 plate appearances this year), but he also has real power.

Michael Brantley has had a phantom good year. The constant glowing reports from the Indians coaching staff about Brantley seemed to be counter to his somewhat pedestrian offensive numbers...but perhaps the Indians coaching staff knows something. Brantley's numbers suggest he's been driving the ball hard, but right at people a lot of the time.

Carlos Santana is without any debate the Indians top prospect right now.

Going down...

Beau Mills, as I said above, has not had a good season. He isn't old, but given his defensive limitations, he really needs to hope for a big turnaround season next year (and now might be a good time to start).

We spent a fair amount of money to sign Tim Fedroff and so far, the return hasn't been great. He's good at drawing walks, but for a guy with very little power he strikes out way too much (20.8%).

Looking more closely at his numbers, Carlos Rivero hasn't had as bad of a year as I thought. His plate discipline numbers are still good, he's still playing at short, but he's developing a bad habit of under-performing his stats. According to the minorleaguesplits.com numbers, Rivero has gotten unlucky every season of his career at the plate. It makes me wonder if there isn't something systemic in the way Rivero puts balls in play that the site is adjusting incorrectly for. Also, given his size, it'd be nice to see more power from him.

Final Thought

It is clear to see why the Indians have begun focusing on 2011. It is possible that by then Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley and Nick Weglarz will all be regulars in Cleveland. These are all potential impact guys. Behind them are a few younger guys who are interesting, but also a lot of guys who represent decent organizational depth guys. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians lose a few guys in the Rule 5 over the next few years who stick and have some success elsewhere.

Minor Action: April edition

APV — Fri, 01 May 2009 17:08:16 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Aaron Laffey was the first Clipper to join Cleveland's pitching staff this season, but Jeremy Sowers might not be far behind.

Browse more photos »

A month into the season, I think it is fair to begin looking more systematically at how the significant guys in our minor league system are faring. I’ll focus my attention on the guys that matter, a few exceptional performances from guys that probably don’t matter, and last year’s draft class.

Columbus (9-12, last place)

I really thought Columbus would dominate this season given the talent there. So far, not so much – although they have quite a few great individual performances.

Matt LaPorta: .352/.431/.676, 9.8 BB%, 9.8K%, 11 XBHs, +11 Net

For those who were beginning to get nervous about LaPorta at the end of last season…relax. Quite simply, there is nothing not to like about LaPorta’s line. The countdown is well underway as to when we will see him in Cleveland.

Luis Valbuena: .311/.427/.500, 16.7 BB%, 14.4 K%, 8 XBHs, +7 Net

I argued in a recent GameThread that Valbuena’s performance is in many ways more interesting than LaPorta’s. Valbuena is easily handling AAA pitching while, based on team reports, displaying stellar middle-infield defense. It’s hard for me to not get overly excited about a Cabrera-Valbuena DP combination. Great defense. +.400 OBP. Muy buena.

Michael Brantley: .217/.299/.275, 9.1 BB%, 18.2 K%, 3 XBHs, -1 Net

Brantley has struggled with hamstring issues and is clearly not feeling comfortable at the plate. He’s already more than halfway to his entire 2008 strikeout total. After his rave reviews in spring training, this is disappointing.

David Huff: 3-0, 4.09 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 10.0 BB%, 21.1 K%, 36 GB%, -5 Net

Huff is not off to an extraordinary start, and yet has still been effective. Keeping the K-rate over 20% even when he clearly has not been at his best is nice to see. I expect to see his walk rate come back down and GB rate go back up.

Jeremy Sowers: 1-1, 2.25 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 4.8 BB%, 21.2 K%, 42 GB%, +7 Net

Reports have Sowers throwing 93mph, his control has been fantastic so far, and he is getting strikeouts at a higher rate than he has since his debut campaign in 2005. I think many of us, myself included, are skeptical of Sowers. But his success so far this season cannot be ignored and might be the most important performance in Columbus so far this season.

Others…
David Dellucci: .414/.469/.517 – With Hafner DLed, Dellucci’s return is imminent
Michael Aubrey: .404/.431/.635 – I highlight him only because he’s been on a tear
Josh Barfield: .341/.370/.409 – on a 7 game hit streak
Jordan Brown: .309/.371/.509 – another first baseman!
Wes Hodges: .273/.284/.351 – teaming up with Brantley to bring down the offense
Andy Marte: .273/.333/.409 – who? (24 plate appearances)
Chris Gimenez: .151/.270/.245 – another slow, injury tainted start
Wyatt Toregas: .281/.351/.594 – has taken advantage of Gimenez’s struggles with 3 HRs in the past week
John Meloan: 14IP, 14H, 3HR, 4BB, 14K, 5.01 FIP – two bad outings

Akron (16-4, first place)

Despite some early season hitting problems, Akron is finding a way to win in impressive fashion.

Carlos Santana: .262/.405/.623, 19.2 BB%, 14.1 K%, 10 XBHs, +12 Net

As I said yesterday, not all .260 averages are created equally. Santana has been a stud and has done nothing to dampen optimism about his future.

Beau Mills: .266/.286/.380, 2.4 BB%, 14.3 K%, 7 XBHs, -5 Net

This could be going better for Beau. He made big improvements in his plate patience last year, it’d be nice to see him get that back.

Nick Weglarz: .089/.243/.143, 14.3 BB%, 27.1 K%, 1 XBH, -7 Net

Biggest disappointment so far. I wonder how long the Indians will let him struggle before trying to put him into a more comfortable environment, either against lower competition or with a former hitting coach.

Carlos Rivero: .208/.296/.292, 11.0 BB%, 17.1 K%, 4 XBHs, -1 Net

Also disappointing, though the peripherals are much better than with Weglarz. And for whatever it is worth, minorleaguesplits.com suggests he has been getting pretty unlucky with balls in play.

Hector Rondon: 4-0, 1.17 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 4.4 BB%, 24.4 K%, 47 GB%, +14 Net

By all accounts and by all measures Rondon has been sensational. Better competition, more strikeouts, fewer walks, more groundballs, better outcome. If he keeps this up for another month I expect he’ll get an early promotion to Columbus.

Others…
Jeanmar Gomez: 3-2, 3.62 FIP (A+/AA), just made his first start in Akron after getting called up, but has shown improved BB/K numbers so far this season. One to keep an eye on.
Josh Rodriguez: .314/.478/.353 – Valbuena makes it easy to forget Rodriguez exists. Exceptional patience covering up a lack of power so far. Also, 4 errors in the field.
Chuck Lofgren: 1-0, 3.69 FIP – Can 6 no-hit innings in his last outing and back to back great starts awaken long dormant hope?
Jose Constanza: .323/.400/.419, 10/1 SB/CS – this guy just hangs around as a mildly interesting speedy centerfielder…

Kinston (11-10, first place tie)

More great pitching, coupled with some nice performances by highly thought of 2008 draftees in Carolina…

Kelvin De La Cruz: 2-0, 1.50 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 4.4 BB%, 42.2 K%, 29 GB%, +12 Net

The tall lefty absolutely crushed the Kinston competition in his first two starts, getting 19 of his 36 outs via the K. Unfortunately he has been shelved since then, resting a sore arm. Fingers crossed.

Eric Berger: 2-1, 1.42 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 10.5 BB%, 34.2 K%, 44 GB%, +15 Net

Eric, who turned 23 last week, is picking up where he left off last season in his successful debut. His numbers are actually dragged down somewhat by a bad first start.

Zack Putnam: 2-0, 5.00 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 5.4 BB%, 25.7 K%, 56 GB%, +15 Net

Another 2008 draftee off to a great start (pay more attention to the FIP than the ERA). Putnam got hit with a linedrive in his last start, forcing him out after just 2 innings, but word is he should be fine going forward. A nice competition between Putnam and Berger to see who might get promoted to Akron first.

Cord Phelps: .306/.452/.444, 19.1 BB%, 14.9 K%, 9 XBHs, +11 Net

Tim Fedroff: .303/.422/.455, 16.9 BB%, 21.7 K%, 7 XBHs, +2 Net

Two more 2008 draftees continuing the early season trend of outstanding patience at the plate. For both of these, but especially Fedroff given his K-rate, it’d be nice to see a little more power.

Lonnie Chisenhall: .274/.344/.440, 8.6 BB%, 21.5 K%, 6 XBHs, -6 Net

Lonnie got some love from Baseball America after homering in 3 consecutive games earlier in April. Has cooled down a little since then, but the power and positive reviews of his defense at 3rd (although 4 errors) are nice to see. It’d be good to see him make a little better contact.

Others…

Matt McBride: .412/.468/.718 – yeah, yeah, yeah…
Dallas Cawiezell: 12.1IP, 3 BB, 15 K, 2.22 FIP
CC Lee: 14 IP, 6 BB, 17 K, 5.03 FIP

Lake County (8-12, 6th place)

As I mentioned in last week’s early weekend 6-pack, it’s another loaded pitching staff-very little offense club on Cleveland’s East Side this season.

Abner Abreu: .208/.240/.292, 2.7 BB%, 38.7 K%, 5 XBHs, -24 Net

It doesn’t really matter what kind of moon shots you hit in batting practice if you rack up 29 Ks and just 2 walks in your first 75 plate appearances.

Karexon Sanchez: .268/.342/.493, 8.8 BB%, 30.0 K%, 7 XBHs, -2 Net

Add in 8/0 SB/CS and Sanchez is another guy hanging around the peripheries of the interesting crowd. I’m admittedly biased, though, as I really hope to one day witness, for at least one inning of one game, an infield that includes Karexon Sanchez, Asdrubal Cabrera and Luis Valbuena – just for the scrabble points.

Joey Mahalic: 0-1, 1.00 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 8.8 BB%, 20.6 K%, 64 GB%, +7 Net

The 20-year old veteran of the Captains pitching staff, following in the organizational footsteps of Aaron Laffey (albeit about a year behind in terms of age). Might get promoted to Kinston soon.

Alexander Perez: 0-0, 1.99 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 8.0 BB%, 26.1 K%, 58 GB%, +11 Net

19-year old Dominican is off to a great start. The Latin American scouting department has been doing its job well.

TJ House: 1-1, 1.53 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 14.5 BB%, 21.1 K%, 51 GB%, +3 Net

Some control problems, but an encouraging debut from the 19-year old House.

Santo Frias: 1-0, 2.38 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 13.3 BB%, 40.0 K%, 53 GB%, +12 Net

One of my favorites going into last season (especially paired with Lord Kelvin) is coming back from missing most of last season with injury. Working out of the bullpen in the early season he has been fantastic. It’d be nice to see him either move back into the rotation at some point or up to Kinston.

Others…

Nate Recknagel: .327/.411/.449 – big 2008 U of M draftee will need to show more power given his defensive limitations
Jeremie Tice: .246/.342/.362 – 2008 college draftee…
TJ McFarland: 0-2, 7.13 ERA, 4.49 FIP – control and BABIP problems for this 19-year old