SB Nation - Tyler Lumsden

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Relievers

davoag — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 12:00:21 -0000

Reliever Sammy Gervacio

Your Tuesday morning special is a look at the 2009 Astros bullpen. First, though, I thought we could consider a question:

Can a minor league reliever be considered a prospect?

Almost all the Astros homegrown bullpen additions this decade have been starters in the minors before making the major leauge club. Guys like Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge and Chris Sampson made a successful transition into relievers, but started almost all of their games on the farm. Lately, though, the Astros have been moving prospects into the bullpen earlier in their minor league career and still giving them a shot to make the club.

As a comparison, only three players in the past 13 years have made their major league debut for the Astros after not starting more than 10 games in the minors. They were:

Wayne Franklin, came over from Dodgers, but was a minor league reliever before being called up in 2000. Franklin started just seven games in the minors before coming up during the first year at Enron, which was a wasteland of relievers. Remember the best pitcher in the 2000 bullpen, Joe Slusarsky? Yeah, it was bad. Franklin was sent back to the minors in 2001 and put into the starting rotation, much like the Astros are talking about doing with Wesley Wright (more on that later).
Brandon Puffer, went through three organizations before being called up in 2002, but only started six games in minors. Puffer doesn't show this as much, because he bounced around so much early in his career. Plus, his funky sidearm delivery was probably not though of as something that would hold up in a starter's role, forcing him into the 'pen.
Alvin Morman was called up in 1996, but only started 19 games in the minors. Even then, he was only used as a starter for part of one season (1994), when he started all 19 games at Double-A Jackson. Morman was a relatively high pick (6th round, 1991), but stayed in the pen for most of his career, as some leftys do.

That all changed this season when Sammy Gervacio made his big league debut. The 24-year old never started a game in the minors before appearing in 29 games this season over two stints in Houston. Another reliever, Chia-Jen Lo, is doing well in the Arizona Fall League after signing out of Taiwan last season. Lo also has been used mainly as a reliever along with a couple other mid-level prospects, like Danny Meszaros. Still, there is not a good history of guys with this profile succeeding. It will be interesting to track whether this is a trend that is changing or if these prospects will flame out once they get to the show. With that, let's get on with a look at the bullpen...

Tim Byrdak, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-2, 61 1/3 IP, 3.23 ERA, 76 games, 58 strikeouts, 36 walks, 10 HR, 1.22 WHIP, 129 ERA+

FIP: 5.29

Leverage: 24 High, 13 Medium, 36 Low

BABiP: .188

GB/FB: 0.71

Pitching Runs Created: 30

Notes: For a lefty specialist, Byrdak sure developed into a solid pitcher for the Astros. It really surprised me that he pitched in so many high leverage situations. His peripheral stats are worrying, as he was EXTREMELY lucky to give up so few hits and without a good defense, Byrdak would not have done nearly this well. The two things that jump out (other than his FIP and BABiP) were his homer rate (1.5 HR/9) and his walk rate (5.3 BB/9). Both were right in line with his career numbers, but are not great, especially the walk rate. At the same time, Byrdak has put up three straight seasons with ERAs of 3.00, so he's doing something right. Hopefully, he'll still be effective in 2010.

Chris Sampson, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 4-2, 3 saves, 55 1/3 IP, 5.04 ERA, 49 games, 33 strikeouts, 21 walks, 2 HR, 1.57 WHIP, 82 ERA+

FIP: 3.24

Leverage: 25 high, 10 medium, 14 low

BABiP: .335

GB/FB:1.17

Pitching Runs Created: 15

Notes: Talk about a hard luck season. Sampson suffered muscle spasms in his shoulder and was put on the DL in July. He came back but was ineffective and was finally optioned to Round Rock on August 13. Sampson pitched in some very tough situations and was somewhat unlucky before the injury, but his shoulder may still not be right. His FIP was much lower than his ERA, but his strikeout rate plummeted. Basically, Sampson was very hittable and that needs to change if he's going to be successful in 2010.

LaTroy Hawkins, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-4, 11 saves, 63 1/3 IP, 65 games, 2.13 ERA, 45 strikeouts, 16 walks, 7 HR, 1.20 WHIP, 195 ERA+

FIP: 3.92

Leverage: 35 high, 10 medium, 17 low

BABiP: .283

GB/FB: 0.86

Pitching Runs Created: 39

Notes: Hawkins put up great numbers, especially considering he pitched in more high leverage situations this season than any other Astros reliever. He'll be 37 next season in his 16th big league season. Fun fact: Hawkins actually started 129 games in the minors and was used as a starter by Minnesota for three seasons in the majors before beginning his very lucrative career in the bullpen. Hawkins was probably a little lucky this past season and his strikeout rate isn't anything to write home about. Still, with the rest of the bullpen being as solid as it is, I could see Hawkins closing next season and filling in the rest of the 'pen with Arias, Fulchino and Gervacio.

Jeff Fulchino, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 6-4, 82 IP, 61 games, 3.40 ERA, 71 strikeouts, 27 walks, 7 HR, 1.18 WHIP, 122 ERA+

FIP: 3.52

Leverage: 18 high, 14 medium, 28 low

BABiP: .281

GB/FB: 0.93

Pitching Runs Created: 37

Notes: Thank you Kansas City Royals. The Astros plucked Fulchino off waivers last December and were rewarded with a great season out of the bullpen. In face, Fulchino's season almost makes up for how bad the other Royal imports (Jason Smith, Tyler Lumsden) were. While his strikeout rate doesn't strike fear in the hearts of other teams, Fulchino did avoid giving up home runs for the most part. He also wasn't used in a ton of high leverage situations, so his stats were perfect for middle relief.

Jose Valverde, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 4-2, 25 saves, 54 IP, 52 games, 2.33 ERA, 56 strikeouts, 21 walks, 5 HR, 1.13 WHIP, 178 ERA+

FIP: 3.50

Leverage: 26 high, 13 medium, 10 low

BABiP: .261

GB/FB: 0.66

Pitching Runs Created: 34

Notes: Valverde was exactly what the Astros needed. He brought a swagger to the mound that this team lacked. Injuries robbed him of time this season and the fact that the Astros weren't very good down the stretch held his save total down. You can't ask for much more out of a closer, though, as he managed to strike out one an inning and his home run rate was the lowest since 2005. He has enough concerning factors to his season that I worry about giving him a long term deal. For one, his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career and his BABiP meant his season was more lucky than you'd like. With a couple more hits landing, his numbers could easily have skewed upwards more. Since he's already suffered through an injury-riddled season, what will happen if the Astros give him a 4-to-5 year deal and he's hurt for half of it?

Alberto Arias, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 2-1, 45 2/3 innings, 3.35 ERA, 42 games, 39 strikeouts, 19 walks, 1 HR, 1.49 WHIP, 124 ERA+

FIP: 3.11

Leverage: 12 high, 8 medium, 22 low

BABiP: .340

GB/FB: 1.68

Pitching Runs Created: 18

Notes: When discussing Ed Wade's best moves, Arias has to be among them. While not a home run-type move, Arias was gotten for nothing and has turned into a very effective reliever. Arias had a higher-than-normal BABiP, meaning he was a little unlucky in posting a higher-than-league average ERA. The only thing that's a little concerning about Arias going forward is his strikeout rate is a bit low. Without missing a few more bats, Arias is going to have a hard time giving up just one home run again next season.

Wesley Wright, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-4, 44 2/3 IP, 5.44 ERA, 49 games, 47 strikeouts, 25 walks, 9 HR, 1.75 WHIP, 76 ERA+

FIP: 5.14

Leverage: 7 high, 18 medium, 24 low

BABiP: .358

GB/FB: 0.82

Pitching Runs Created: 14

Notes: The word is the Astros would like to make Wright into a starter. With his age (25) and relative lack of innings to this point, it may take an entire season at Triple-A for Wright to make the transition. Having more left-handed starters, though, can't be a bad thing. Wright has been effective and used in semi-big situations. While Cooper didn't have as much confidence in him as Byrdak (judging by leverage situations), Wright did an adequate job and still strikes out a ton of batters. Even if he loses 2 strikeouts per nine innings off his rate by moving into the starting rotation, he'll still be very effective.

Sammy Gervacio, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-1, 21 IP, 2.14 ERA, 29 games, 25 strikeouts, 8 walks, 1 HR, 1.14 WHIP, 194 ERA+

FIP: 2.25

Leverage: 7 high, 7 medium, 15 low

BABiP: .319

GB/FB: 1.24

Pitching Runs Created: 15

Notes: As I mentioned above, Gervacio was one of the few Astros prospects to make the big league without starting a game in the minors. Gervacio was the only Astro with a double-digit K/9 rate, and had a smaller walk rate than in the minors. Still, Gervacio didn't pitch many innings, but showed enough to be a big contributor next season. He was used in a few high leverage situations and didn't embarrass himself. In fact, his usage pattern was somewhat surprising for a rookie. His FIP and BABiP all showed that his performance was not a fluke, though with his innings, the sample size wasn't big enough to draw huge conclusions. I would be happy to use him in the 'pen in 2010, though, instead of a more expensive option (see: Valverde, Jose).

Geoff Geary, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-3, 20 IP, 8.10 ERA, 16 games, 12 strikeouts, 10 walks, 4 HR, 2.00 WHIP, 51 ERA+

FIP: 6.05

Leverage: 6 high, 4 medium, 6 low

BABiP:.382

GB/FB: 0.54

Pitching Runs Created: 3

Notes: Geary is a good example of why teams shouldn't spend a ton of money on non-closers. Relievers are so fungible, it's hard to justify spending the money for a multi-year contract when their performance can vary so greatly. Take Geary; in 2008, he was a good addition to the 'pen and one of the better throw-ins to the Brad Lidge trade. In 2009? Geary finished the season in the minors and was granted free agency. The righty never could get locked in this season, even though he was used about the same in leveraged situations. His BABiP was high, which means he was probably unlucky. I could see Geary having a productive year for someone in 2010, though it probably won't be the Astros.

Doug Brocail, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-0, 17 2/3 IP, 4.58 ERA, 20 games, 9 strikeouts, 13 walks, 4 HR, 1.95 WHIP, 91 ERA+

FIP: 7.28

Leverage: 4 high, 2 medium, 12 low

BABiP: .298

GB/FB: 0.94

Pitching Runs Created: 6

Notes: It's safe to say the Doug Brocail experiment didn't work out as the Astros had planned. It's not that Brocail did poorly. In fact, you could argue that he was Houston's most effective reliever in 2008. However, his age may have caught up to him this season, as Brocail only played 20 games before suffering an arm injury (?). What's interesting is looking at what leveraged situations Brocail was used in this season. For someone who was so good a season before, Cooper obviously didn't want to use him in pressure situations in 2009, as he was used in twice as many low pressure situations as anything else.

Chad Paronto, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 6 2/3 IP, 12.15 ERA, 6 games, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk, 4 HR, 2.40 WHIP, 34 ERA+

FIP: 10.50

Leverage: 0 high, 0 medium, 6 low

BABiP: .407

GB/FB: 0.50

Pitching Runs Created: 1

Notes: Paronto has been great for Round Rock the past two seasons, but battled injuries in 2009. He was called up in September and gave up a ton of home runs, but was a tad unlucky. Paronto is exactly the kind of arm the Astros have collected at Triple-A the past few years. He's serviceable but probably only needed in spot duty in the majors, if there is an injury.

Billy Sadler, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 1 1/3 IP, 13.50 ERA, 1 game, 2 strikeouts, 1 walk, 0 HR, 2.25 WHIP, 31 ERA+

FIP: 2.40

Leverage: 0 high, 0 medium, 1 low

BABiP: .500

GB/FB: 1.00

Pitching Runs Created: 0

Notes: The only Astros pitcher to not get at least one Pitching Run Created, the story was that Wade promised Sadler he'd be added to the big league team before the end of the season. That's why he got the call-up at the end of September, though Sadler didn't pitch much at all. Fun moments in small sample size: Sadler's FIP was 11 runs lower than his ERA, but only because he struck out two in his 1 1/3 innings. Of course, now Sadler's a free agent and probably won't come back. But we'll always have that 1 1/3 innings.

Reviewing Dayton Moore at the Trade Deadline: 2006

royalsreview — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 04:46:19 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher J.P. Howell remembers being traded for Joey Gathright. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Browse more photos »

As we approach this year's trade deadline, it's useful to look back at Dayton Moore's deadline track record. In the first of three posts, we look at Dayton's first trade deadline: 2006.

The Royals hired Dayton Moore during the 2006 season. Moore was hired on May 30th and officially took over on June 8th, shortly after the 2006 Draft. (Which remains another story.) Moore was extremely active during his first few months as the Royals GM. After a week as the head man, Moore had parted ways with three minor leaguers, including Kyle Snyder, and signed Todd Wellemeyer, Brandon Duckworth and Donovan Osbourne. None of these guys did very much for the Royals, but they are emblematic of Moore's first eighteen months on the job. If you ever thought about pitching, the Royals took a flyer on you.

On June 20, 2006, Moore made his first major move, sending J.P. Howell to Tampa for Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez. Seen from the beginning as a signature move, Moore parted ways with the college pitcher with seemingly limited upside for the tantalizing speed and defense of Joey Gathright. Like many of Moore's subsequent moves, there was a certain bravado to it: I'm not just going for speed, I'm bringing in the fastest guy in baseball, despite no evidence he can hit, or actually play center well, deal with it.

The Gathright trade has been discussed quite a bit over the years, and there isn't much more to be said. Gathright had his moments in Kansas City, and in theory was not a bad guy to take a look at. Howell however, has been better than 90% of the relievers the Royals have employed since his departure, and has recently blossomed into one of the better relievers in the American League. Fernando Cortez spent parts of two seasons in the Royals' system, and randomly had 16 PAs with the 2007 Royals. In the long run, the Gathright trade was a signature move, just not the type of signature Moore wanted.

The Gathright trade was not technically a "deadline deal" but beyond its date, there's not much to separate it from the other moves Dayton made that year. Let's take a look at the other trades Dayton made that July:

July 19, 2006: Traded Ruben Gotay to the Mets for Jeff Keppinger. A weird challenge trade if there ever was one. Gotay has some vague semblance of potential in 2006, while Keppinger was seen as a guy with a decent infield bat, but not a solid defensive reputation. Keppinger hit .267/.323/.400 in 67 PAs for the 2006 Royals, playing mostly at third base. Keppy should have been a sign of Dayton's love for scrappy white guys who play the game the right way. Keppinger was traded in Jaunary to the Reds for Russ Haltiwanger, who left the system last season. Keppinger, of course, immediately had a career season with the Reds in 2007. Gotay, of course, did little in New York and is currently in the Arizona system. Yours truly thought the Keppinger trade was fairly pointless back in 2006, but he likely would have been a better option at short in 2007-8 than Tony Pena Jr. turned out to be.

July 24, 2006: Traded Mike MacDougal to the White Sox for Daniel Cortes and Tyler Lumsden: This was a big trade back in 2006. MacDougal was a longtime Royal by the standards of the day, was one of the heroes of 2003 and was something of a fan favorite. While generally unreliable in both the long and short term, had his uses as a reliever. MacDougal was quickly signed to a three-year deal with the White Sox, yet never really pitched well there. Dayton's haul of Dan Cortes and Tyler Lumsden was viewed from the onset as a great trade, and through 2008 Cortes was highly regarded as a pitching prospect. Considering that both Cortes and Lumsden are both gone now, having never contributed at the Major League level (Lumsden stayed in the KC system until last November, when he was claimed by the Astros) it remains mostly a good trade in only in an alternative universe. Of course, according to the party line, Cortes was used to acquire a great everyday shortstop with lots of upside. So another victory.

July 25, 2006: Elmer Dessens traded to Dodgers for Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel and Odalis Perez. This was an interesting trade. The Royals shipped out Elmer Dessens, who was having an ok season for the Royals as a middle reliever (4.50 ERA, generic peripheral stats) and, in exchange for taking on a portion of the Odalis Perez contract, came out with two pitching prospects. Odalis made 38 starts for the Royals, and while he was the subject of many jokes on this site and elsewhere, he was not totally terrible (84 ERA+). Plus, he gave rise to the former-Brave theory, which has been one of the few things keeping me alive during this decade. Blake Johnson is currently pitching at AA, and Pimentel (currently injured I believe) was at AA in 2008. Considering that both are still around and somewhat well-regarded, the Dessens deal may be Dayton's best trade.

July 25, 2006: Tony Graffanino traded to Milwaukee for Jorge de la Rosa. By the time this trade hit, we were starting to think we'd figured out Dayton Moore. Arms with upside. Jorge was not a former Brave, but he felt like one. A guy with a great arm, who'd seemingly been around as a prospect for decades. Graffanino had had a weird run with the Royals: signed to a 2 year 2.2 million deal for 04-05, Graffy was traded to Boston in 2005. After the '05 season, he signed a $2 million dollar deal with Boston, but ended up being DFAed. In March of 2006, the Royals claimed him off waivers from Boston. Then, Moore traded him. JDLR spent two seasons with the Royals and was nearly identical to Odalis Perez, posting an ERA+ of 83 in 36 games. I don't remember ever feeling like he was going to be a contributor or that he was turning it around. JDLR eventually ended up in Colorado, where he's still pitching. Graffanino meanwhile, retains historical importance as one of the early examples of the team's Gritty Scrappy White Middle Infielder Fetish: McEwing, Graffanino, Grudzielanek, Keppinger, etc.. Of course, St. Willie Bloomquist has been the apogee of this bizarre fixation.

July 31. 2006: Matt Stairs sent to Texas for Joselo Diaz: Would you believe that Diaz was a minor league pitcher? Dude ended up being completely horrible in extremely limited action with the Royals in 2006, and was hardly better in Omaha. Diaz left the system as a free agent after the 2006 season, and is currently with the Dodgers. The Stairs trade was more or less a salary dump, only that Stairs wasn't that expensive, given that he was making $1.4 million. Stairs has bounced around, but is still contributing at the Major League level, while the Royals will head into 2010 not sure who to play at DH.

July 31, 2006: Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista sent to Colorado for Scott Dohman and Ryan Shealy: Another highly-praised trade at the time, the Affeldt-Shealy deal ended up working out much better for the Rockies than the Royals. Affeldt was a tantalizing but generally despised Royal by 2006, after three years of countless message board debates about how he should be used. And shockingly, he always had nagging injuries! He must have been a pansy. Shealy appeared for all the world to be a plug and play AAAA masher who could provide cheap offense at 1B/DH. Instead, after a passable 2006 debut with the Royals (102 OPS+) he was one of the worst players in the Major Leagues in 2007, and has been injury-plagued and unheard from since. Affeldt ended up giving the Rockies 86 innings of 105 ERA+ pitching over two seasons, and is currently with the Giants. Dohmann and Bautista did very little with their new teams, though Denny Bautista did make everyone confused for a few years, as he was one of like six guys out there named "Denny Bautista".

Overall Evaluation: In 2006, it looked pretty good. I count 12 players in, 8 players out. Dayton's five trades during deadline week were what every single Royals fan wanted. There was a general impression that Moore was clearing the roster of the detritus of the Baird regime and beginning the long rebuild of the franchise. Still, by 2008, only four of the new guys -- Gathright, Shealy, Pimentel, Johnson -- were still with the Royals, and Gathright and Shealy were almost certainly done as Major League contributors. Moore did dump some salary, but only the modest amounts which remained owed to Stairs, Graffy and Affeldt. We're talking about maybe 1.5 million here, not a large number. Other than the ill-fated Gathright, effectively, none of Moore's myriad moves produced a single Major League player for the Royals. Nothing.

Here's the damning thing: if you gathered up all the players involved in this flurry of 2006 and subjected them to a draft, here in 2009, the players the Royals sent packing in 2006 are still the best players. Of course, that's partially to be expected, given the example of a player like Matt Stairs. Nevertheless, none of the prospects Moore acquired has turned out to be a contributor in 2009, and only two, Johnson and Pimentel, have any real shot of doing so. In that fictional draft, right now you'd take Howell first, then, probably Affeldt, then Stairs. Someone might take MacDougal fourth, or maybe, maybe de la Rosa. (Actually, many GMs would probably take Cortes near the top of that list, but after the Betancourt, I can't give Dayton credit for him.)

Moore's deadline trades did not make the Royals better in 2006, or 2007, or 2008, or 2009. While he won the extremely minor Gotay-Keppinger trade and got nice value with the Dessens swap, none of Dayton's 2006 deadline deals really worked out for the Royals. He lost the Affeldt-Shealy trade and he lost the Howell-Gathright trade. The deals made involving MacDougal, Stairs, and Graffanino, ultimately did nothing for the franchise at all.

This deadline was really the beginning of Moore's reputation as a transactions hound, as someone who was actively scouring the low minor leagues for pitching talent, and as someone who would need to make approximately five million trades to fix the disaster that was the Royals.

Finally, one thing that stands out about these trades is how utterly inconsequential they all were. Most of the players involved, coming and going, left no real impact anywhere. That should remind us something about how most of these deadline deals end up. This is especially true when you're talking about the kind of C market players that the Royals shop, and shop for.

The Joselo Diazes come, the Joselo Diazes go. Only the Baseball Annies of the minor leagues remember much.

Hit and Run, June 17, 2009

John Sickels — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 17:41:33 -0000

Hit and Run, June 17, 2009

**Brett Lawrie came off the disabled list at Class A Wisconsin and went 3-for-5 with a double and an RBI on June 15^th. He'd been out of action for a week following surgery to repair a broken nose. So far, Milwaukee's 2008 first-round pick has looked good with the bat, hitting .277/.344/.481 with eight homers and a surprising 11 steals in 187 at-bats. Although he looks like he should be a "slow slugger" type on paper (listed at 5-11, 200), Lawrie is actually a very good athlete. I still have doubts about the whole second base thing, worrying that the demands of the position could cut into his offensive performance.

**After a dismal May, Lars Anderson has really heated up in June, hitting .386/.460/.523 for Double-A Portland, including a .457 mark with five walks and six strikeouts in his last 10 games. His season line now stands at .269/.355/.435, not great but still showing the effects of his awful .194/.318/.376 performance in May. He hit well in April and so far this month. I retain confidence in his bat.

**A sleeper pitcher to watch is Rockies prospect Esmil Rogers, currently 5-2, 2.82 with a 67/15 K/BB in 73 innings for Double-A Tulsa, 66 hits allowed. I didn't put him in the 2009 book, which looks like a bad decision right now. He went 9-7, 3.95 with a 116/45 K/BB in 144 innings last year in the California League, not outstanding but showing some pretty solid command; he was worthy of inclusion. A 23 year old Dominican, Rogers is not a big guy at 6-1, 160, but his fastball has been clocked as high as 96 MPH, granted that's a peak reading and 88-92 is more usual according to Texas League sources. He's made progress with his curveball and changeup, and he throws strikes. I want to get a look at him and am planning a Tulsa trip soon.

**Stat Line of the Day: Jordan Parraz, OF, Northwest Arkansas: .350/.446/.512, 26 walks, 22 strikeouts in 203 at-bats. I never understood why the Astros didn't seem to like this guy. He has tools, and he has skills, yet they never seemed to want to promote him, and they traded him to the Royals for Tyler Lumsden.

**University of California product Josh Satin was an old college senior last year at age 23. He had a great year, hitting .379/.500/.723. Gaudy numbers out of old college seniors don't often result in high draft status, but Satin (who had also hit well in the Cape Cod League) was talented enough to be drafted in the sixth round by the Mets. He is now an old Sally League player but continuing to produce, hitting .311/.414/.414 with 41 walks in 222 at-bats. His power has been limited with just two homers so far, though he does have 17 doubles, and his on-base skills seem solid. He played multiple positions in college and is being groomed as a utility player, spending time at second base, first base, and third base so far this year. Because of his age (24 in the Sally League) we really need to see more at higher levels, but I think he's very interesting.

**Switch-pitching Pat Venditte is another older Sally Leaguer, turning 24 at the end of his month. His numbers at Charleston are ridiculous: 0.94 ERA, 39/1 K/BB in 29 innings, 21 hits allowed, 20 saves in 26 games. He's holding lefties to a mere.121 average, right-handers to a .239 mark. If I were the Yankees, I'd be very willing to promote this guy. . .he has nothing left to learn at this level, and I want to find out if his game will work against better competition.

Mike MacDougal: In Memoriam

larry — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 18:34:51 -0000

View full size photo »

July 26, 2006 - April 21, 2009

We are gathered here today to remember Robert Meiklejohn "Mike" MacDougal. Mike came to us from the Kansas City Royals for Daniel Cortes and Tyler Lumsden. Today, he leaves us.

Since The Arsonist was very good at his craft, it is difficult to choose just one favorite Mike MacDougal moment. However, I think May 18, 2007 will always stick in my mind. Letting two inherited runners score and then three more of your own - that's the very essence of burning it down.

Please add your memory - or at least your name - to the guestbook below.

Division-By-Division 2009 Projected Starting Pitching Rankings By WAR: NL Central

devil_fingers — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 13:30:08 -0000

This is the third in a series of what will be six posts going through the MLB division by division to see who has the best projected 2009 starting pitching by Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Today's subject is the biggest division in baseball (even after the departure of CC Sabathia [har har har]): the NL Central.

Rankings and how I got 'em after the jump.

How Did I Come Up With These Numbers?

Some details on the methods used (if you don't care, you can jump straight to the main body)

FIP is used as the primary pitching stat.
The projected 2009 for each pitcher is generated by averagfing the projections of the three best publicly available projection systems: CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA. The projected FIP for CHONE and ZiPS are from the player pages at FanGraphs. I generated the PECOTA FIP myself from the big spreadsheet.
Playing time/depth chart projections are based on Baseball Prospectus's in order to account for spot starters as well.
No team only starts 5 players all year long. However, I've also included a "top 5" figure for each team, based on the top 5 projected starter WARs for each team (not the top five projected IPs).
Value is based on a Win% generated using PythagenPat in relation to a average FIP-ERA of 4.40 and an RA of 4.76.
Run values are generated by are scaling FIP to RA rather than ERA for better accuracy and to properly value pitchers with respect to hitters.
An appropriate replacement level win percentage for starting pitchers is used, adjusted for relative league difficulty: .390 is replacement level for starters in the NL, and .370 for the AL.
Adjustments for ballparks use the five-year regressed park factors used at FanGraphs.
Adjustments are made for each pitcher's influence on his run environment through a dynamic run-to-win conversion for each individual pitcher.
Neither the rates nor playing time projections are "mine." I have simply the projections, averaged them, and combined them with BP's playing time predictions. You can find the complete projected lines for each pitcher at the home sites for the systems (and FanGraphs, for CHONE and ZiPS). In other words, don't blame me if you lose money betting with this stuff...

Team-By-Team

Chicago Cubs
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Carlos Zambrano	190	4.20	.541	28.7	2.9
Ted Lilly	175	4.28	.532	.24.9	2.5
Ryan Dempster	170	3.90	.576	31.6	3.2
Rich Harden	155	2.97	.695	47.3	5.1
Sean Marshall	105	4.52	.506	12.1	1.2
Aaron Heilman	55	4.12	.550	8.8	0.9
Angel Guzman	60	3.89	.577	11.2	1.1
Mitch Atkins	40	6.84	.386	-0.2	0.0
Total					16.9
Top 5					14.9

Comment: Yeah... that's a good rotation, all right. "Big Z" gets a lot of press, and out of the Prior/Wood/Clement/Zambrano group, he's the only one still starting on a regular basis, but he looks like the #3 starter here. The projections say that the Dempster contract cool decent so far. I've always liked Ted Lilly, never quite sure why he changed teams so often; he got screwed in New York -- traded for Jeff Weaver, of all people. How'd that turn out? Rich Harden: Badass WAR in 155 IP; PECOTA and CHONE both like him, but ZiPS LOVES him, with a 2.47 projected FIP. We'll see. Betwen Harden and Milton Bradley, the joint potential for awesomeness and disappointment should make for an interesting summer on the North Side. Mitch Atkins is one of the rare players I've come across who actually projects as below replacement level (although it's so close that when the RAR/WAR conversion is made and rounded, it doesn't show).

Milwaukee Brewers
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Yovani Gallardo	140	3.63	.591	28.2	2.9
Jeff Suppan	150	4.80	.458	10.2	1.0
Dave Bush	175	4.41	.499	19.1	1.9
Manny Parra	145	4.13	.531	20.4	2.0
Braden Looper	160	4.52	.487	15.5	1.5
Seth McClung	80	4.43	.496	8.5	0.8
Chris Capuano	60	4.05	.539	8.9	0.9
Chase Wright	35	5.11	.429	1.4	0.1
Total					11.2
Top 5					9.3

Comment: Well, Ben Sheets is going to miss at least half the season anyway, but the sizable (ahem) hole left by C.C./CC Sabathia's departure is, um, big. Still, this is an okay rotation. Gallardo looks like a stud, and if they can get more innings out of him that will make a big difference. Manny Parra could also surprise, and seems in line for his luck to regress after an unfortunate 2008.

St. Louis Cardinals
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Adam Wainwright	155	3.81	.558	26.1	2.7
Chris Carpenter	110	3.67	.576	20.5	2.1
Kyle Lohse	175	4.11	.523	23.3	2.3
Joel Pineiro	140	4.66	.463	10.2	1.0
Todd Wellemeyer	155	4.51	.478	13.7	1.3
Jesse Todd	105	4.82	.447	6.0	0.6
Mitchell Boggs	60	5.08	.423	2.0	0.2
P.J. Walters	55	4.80	.449	3.2	0.3
Total					10.5
Top 5					9.4

Comment: Wainwright = good. What a surprise. The Cardinals are going to need him to pitch more that 155, though. Chris Carpenter's issues are well-known. Cards fans just have to hope that he doesn't get on Tony LaRussa's bad side like so many decent veterans before him. I sometimes think I should have set the lgERA/RA higher, and Kyle Lohse projecting as a .523 pitcher is a good reason, but a 4.11 FIP is pretty good. His contract is certainly better than the very similar one given to Joel Pineiro the year before, but we aren't talking money in this series. OK group, but clearly below average. Way to get the most of Albert Pujols's prime, St. Louis front office.

Cincinnati Reds
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Aaron Harang	190	4.08	.546	29.6	3.0
Bronson Arroyo	190	4.41	.508	22.5	2.2
Edinson Volquez	170	3.96	.560	28.9	2.9
Johnny Cueto	160	4.45	.504	19.2	1.8
Micah Owings	120	4.59	.489	11.9	1.2
Homer Bailey	80	5.02	.446	4.5	0.4
Ramon Ramirez	30	4.93	.455	2.0	0.2
Matthew Maloney	30	5.12	.438	1.4	0.1
Total					11.9
Top 5					11.9

Comment: It seems like I read something somewhere about this maybe being the best rotation in the division. Well, no, it isn't. It's more like average, but there are some good pitchers here, for sure. Edinson Volquez is the clear stud here, and is still young. Aaron Harang is another guy who had bad luck last year and should bounce back. As fellow Drivelinee David Golebiewski put it elsewhere, there is still hope for Homer Bailey, "but some of the shine is definitely off of his star."

Houston Astros
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Roy Oswalt	195	3.56	.596	40.1	4.2
Wandy Rodriguez	140	4.13	.526	19.0	1.9
Brandon Backe	125	5.38	.401	1.4	0.1
Mike Hampton	80	4.92	.442	4.1	0.4
Brian Moehler	130	4.62	.472	10.7	1.0
Chris Sampson	80	4.20	.517	10.2	1.0
Felipe Paulino	75	5.35	.403	1.0	0.1
Alberto Arias	60	4.54	.480	5.4	0.5
Clay Hensley	45	4.67	.466	3.4	0.3
Tyler Lumsden	20	5.91	.359	-0.6	-0.1
Total					9.6
Top 5					8.6

Comment: Roy, Wandy, and a bunch of nothing. Time for pie.

Hey, did you know that Chris Sampson got married at the home plate at ~~Enron Field~~ Minute Maid Park? Former Royal Tyler Lumsden might have the worst projected WAR of any pitcher I've posted about in this series yet, which is tough to do in only 20 projected innings. I wonder if he'll actually pitch in the majors this season...

Pittsburgh Pirates
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Paul Maholm	185	4.22	.510	22.3	2.2
Zach Duke	165	4.36	.495	17.3	1.7
Ian Snell	160	4.34	.497	17.1	1.7
Tom Gorzelanny	110	4.61	.468	8.6	0.8
Jeff Karstens	75	4.72	.457	5.0	0.5
Ross Ohlendorf	90	4.11	.523	12.0	1.2
Phil Dumatrait	50	5.00	.430	2.0	0.2
Donald Veal	30	5.74	.366	-0.7	-0.1
Jimmy Barthmaier	30	4.90	.439	1.5	0.1
Daniel McCutchen	40	5.09	.421	1.2	0.1
Total					8.4
Top 5					7.6

Comment: I know what it's like to cheer for losing/rebuilding teams, so I don't want to pile on. On the other hand, I don't want to just not comment. The new front office seems smart and stuff, and Dan Fox is one of the more respected sabermetricians out there. No one terrible here, but no one really special, either. Karstens and Ohlendorf seem decent enough (especially if Ohlendorf and sustain those numbers as a starter over a full season) in themselves (Tabata, etc. aside) to make the trading of Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady to the Yankees a win for the Pirates.

So, without any further ado...

NL Central Projected SP WAR Rankings
Rank	Team	Total SP WAR	Top 5 WAR
1	Cubs	16.9	14.9
2	Reds	11.9	11.1
3	Milwaukee	11.2	9.3
4	Cardinals	10.5	9.4
5	Astros	9.6	8.6
6	Pirates	8.4	7.6
	Total	56.9	51.2

Final Thoughts: The Cubs run away with this one, and no one else is particularly close. A "three division" division, with the Cubs, then the Reds, Cards, and Brewers all bunched together, then the Pirates and Astros. Well, sort of, as the Cards are closer ot the Astros then they are the Reds. What's sad for the Astros is that Oswalt projects as the second best starter in the division (other than Rich Harden), and the Astros starters still project as terrible overall.

Up Next: AL Central

Astros roster begins to take shape

DyingQuail — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 00:20:07 -0000

Before game time today—which was yet another loss—the Astros whittled down their roster further. There aren't a lot of surprises in this mix, but I think the moves bear some analysis.

Here's the story; here are some block quotes:

Five were optioned to Triple-A Round Rock: infielder Drew Sutton, outfielder Yordany Ramirez, right-hander Sammy Gervacio and lefties Tyler Lumsden and Polin Trinidad.

The Astros also reassigned infielder Mark Saccomanno to Minor League camp.

Like I said, none of these moves are overly surprising. I can't say that I'm not disappointed to see Sutton optioned to Round Rock, but in the end, it's probably the best for his career path. It's also not like we won't see him called up when Kaz inevitably goes down with an injury at some point—so godspeed Drew. Ramirez is so gifted defensively, but aside from a short stint at the Padres AAA affiliate where he mashed, he hasn't done much to warrant a major league job, but maybe he'll develop into a serviceable fifth outfielder in the future.

Sending the lefties down was interesting, because it came on the heels of Hensely being slotted into the bullpen and leaving the rotation race. However, that move doesn't give us anymore lefties in the bullpen, so it'll be interesting to see how Cooper is able to play his platoon split strategy during the season. According to the article above, Trinidad will start at AAA, but it sounded like Lumsden will stay in the bull pen. Coop was impressed with Trindad and expects to see him at in the bigs sometime this season; that's not an overly bold prediction given that Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and Russ Ortiz will ostensibly be our 3/4/5 to start the season (maybe Capellan after today's effort too?).

The final stop on today's recap of where we're at is Brandon Backe and Alberto Arias. Backe is apparently no closer to starting, with no idea when to begin. There's been a lot of ink spilled about us releasing him so that we don't have to pay his $1.55 million contract, but I think that's a bad idea. Yes, he's Brandon Backe, but at least we know he can be around replacement level for us. This team is shallow on starting pitching depth, and I think $1.55 million is worth a DL slot and at least hedging our bets against our ridiculously old rotation. That brings me to Arias, whose IP this Spring Training had indicated the Astros were shoping him as a bullpen only candidate, but that status was finally confirmed, for me at least, yesterday in this article. We've talked about Arias a lot over the offseason, so this doesn't make a whole lot sense to me. Paulino doesn't look ready to be a starter; Ortiz, Hampton, and Moehler are old; Backe and Wandy are dubious for health reasons right now; and Hensley has been pushed to the bullpen. So why on Earth are we not trying to cultivate a guy who has the promise of a starter to be a starter?