SB Nation - Matt Harrison

Yankees Series Another Test For Rangers

JP Starkey — Mon, 13 Aug 2012 18:25:22 -0000

The grueling portion of Texas' summer schedule continues on Monday night, as the Rangers head to the Bronx to open up a four-game set against the New York Yankees. Not surprisingly, the Rangers and Yankees are the two American League powers this year, and either team could be considered the favorite to represent the American League in the World Series come October.

The Rangers have been playing better baseball lately. Texas went into Boston last week and took two-of-three from a solid, though vastly underachieving, Red Sox team. The Rangers took two-of-three from the Detroit Tigers over this past weekend, even winning a game Justin Verlander started.

Still, the Yankees prove to be Texas' biggest test yet.

New York is one of three teams, along with the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals, that has a better run differential than the Rangers do. New York sits at a comfortable +97, while the Rangers are at +82. For what it's worth, Washington is +96, and St. Louis is +101, despite being in third place.

Point is, the Yankees are one of baseball's best teams, and along with the Rangers, constitute the class of the American League. Texas catches a break this week, since they won't face New York ace C.C. Sabathia, who was placed on the disabled list with elbow soreness.

Instead, the Rangers face David Phelps, Hiroki Kuroda, Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova. In a playoff series, the Rangers may face Kuroda and Nova, but they're missing New York's top two starters, Sabathia and Andy Pettitte.

Despite this fact, the series is a good test for the Rangers, specifically Texas' pitching staff. The Rangers, unlike previous years, lack a true top of the rotation pitcher. Ryan Dempster, Matt Harrison, Scott Feldman and Derek Holland will all take the mound this week in the Bronx, and they're certainly worth watching to see how they handle one of baseball's best offenses.

No, the series isn't make-or-break. The Rangers are going to the playoffs no matter what this year, barring a 2007 Mets-esque collapse. It's still worth watching and putting stock into how Texas' pitchers fare in the Bronx, and against a top lineup.

Colby Lewis' Injury Forces Texas' Hand

JP Starkey — Tue, 24 Jul 2012 12:00:33 -0000

Colby Lewis and the Texas Rangers did not receive good news on Monday, as both the Rangers and Lewis found out that Lewis' season is over, and that the talented right hander has a torn ligament in his elbow.

This will likely force Jon Daniels' hand in the coming week, as the Rangers will now almost certainly look to add a starting pitcher as a necessity, rather than a luxury.

Even without a move, the Rangers will make the playoffs. However, a rotation of Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and Roy Oswalt in the playoffs hardly is fearsome, and is extremely volatile. I could easily see the Rangers sweeping an ALDS opponent or being swept with that rotation.

Colby Lewis was a very important part of Texas' rotation.

So, now the Rangers will likely increase their efforts of landing either Cole Hamels, who Tim Kurkjian believes is who Texas really wants in the next week, Zack Greinke or Matt Garza.

Of course, Mike Olt could be a casualty as a consequence. The Rangers may be more likely to move Olt to acquire a top of the rotation pitcher, knowing that Lewis will not pick up another baseball for them in 2012.

The consequences don't stop there, though. It's been reported that the Diamondbacks are high on Mike Olt, and that Olt could be used as a centerpiece to land Justin Upton. If the Rangers have to move Olt to acquire a pitcher, all dreams of Upton coming to Texas are likely over.

One thing is for sure: the next week will be very busy for Daniels.

Did You Know?

philkid3 — Mon, 02 Jul 2012 18:01:09 -0000

Of the top 11 starters by FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement measure, the Rangers have three of the top 11 starters in the American League this season. At 2.5 wins, Matt Harrison ranks sixth, Yu Darvish three spots behind with 2.2, and Colby Lewis 11th with 2.1 (despite now being on the disabled list).

As you might expect from that, as a team, the Rangers lead all of baseball in WAR generated from starting pitching at 9.4. Even Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz had been pitching like good middle of the order guys prior to getting hurt, and they were back end stuff on this squad. Roy Oswalt has already been worth 0.6 WAR in his two starts, the kind of average production most teams have to be fine with as their No. 2 starter.

Oh, Texas also leads in baseball in bullpen WAR, for the record.

In the interest of multiple data points, you can also glance at Baseball-Reference's version of WAR. FanGraphs uses FIP, estimating a pitchers' expected runs allowed using the "three true outcomes" (K/BB/HR). BR uses actual runs allowed adjusted for factors such as team defense. Anyway, it drops Lewis down to 16th, but that's still great -- or more like [expletive] incredible --- for the third best starter on a team. Meanwhile, Darvish remains 9th, and Harrison jumps up to fourth.

Remember when the Rangers couldn't find a pitcher to save their lives?

Joey Matschulat On Matt Harrison

philkid3 — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 14:36:26 -0000

68.2%.

That is Matt Harrison's ground ball rate so far in the 2012 season. Only two pitchers have done better in all of baseball -- C.J. Wilson and Jason Hammel -- but both have only done it over one start.

So that's pretty cool. And Joey Matschulat has a good analysis of why over at Baseball Time in Arlington, with heat maps on the lefty's location this year, as opposed to last year.

For instance, this is what Harrison's location against lefties looks like in 2011 vs. 2012.

Yeah, that would be how you get a ton of ground balls.

Matches has more pictures and analysis, so you should give him a read. Then think about how awesome Matt Harrison might be becoming. I'd like to point, as well, that his 9.4% swinging strike rate so far is a good sign that he can get hitters out even if he struggles to locate that amazingly.

2012 Texas Rangers Projections: Davenport

philkid3 — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 17:00:39 -0000

Fourth on our list of Texas Rangers forecasts is a new-comer: the Davenport Projections. It doesn't have a fancy acronym or anything yet!

It also has no previous results for us to see how accurate it is, so it is to be taken with a rather large grain of salt. Clay Davenport himself, however, had a rather large track record, as a founding member of Baseball Prospectus, perhaps the foremost expert on finding ways to translate minor league stats to the Majors, and having done some work on their popular PECOTA forecast system.

His own system uses a Marcel-like regression with different (hopefully more accurate) weights, and then ages players using comparable players from MLB history. You can find the projected standings as of Monday here, and it includes a link to spreadsheets including every player's individual stats. And you can find his playoff odds forecast here. Again, we don't know a whole lot about how reliable we should treat it, but it can be fun to look at something new.

There's another reason to look at these if you're a Rangers fan, too, and you'll see it the moment you click those links.

Well, that's just a tad exciting, huh?

If you clicked the jump instead of going to the Davenport site, then you missed a projected 100 win season on average for the 2012 Texas Rangers; winning the division by 16 games. SIXTEEN! Can you imagine if the Angels shell out ridiculous money for Albert Pujols, and in most likely his best season of the contract they lose the division by 16 games?!

That forecast is the best record of any team by seven wins (ahead of the Yankees). The Yankees' 93 win forecast is more typical of a projection system for a good team. Teams are pegged to their mean performance, not a high end of an extreme. You don't usually -- or ever -- see teams pegged with a mean of 100 wins. Davenport thinks the Rangers are the best team in baseball by a mile, and that would put their floor somewhere at "merely in contention" and their ceiling at about "historically great."

The playoff odds give them an 85% chance of winning the division, and that's prior to an update that gave them 100 wins. The total playoff odds come out to 93%, the kind of odds you hope to get late in the season, not before a pitch has been thrown. Good heavens I hope he's on to something the rest of the models are not.

This is by far the smallest expected regression seen yet out of Mike Napoli. Davenport has the Rangers only scoring about 10 fewer runs in 2012 on account of Napoli. It does not, however, see Napoli as the team's best hitter. That title, rather, goes to Josh Hamilton.

Davenport is also pretty high on the platoon of Craig Gentry and Julio Borbon, seeing that combination as nearly an all-star player given good defense. Leonys Martin is also seen as a slightly better option than Borbon, though once again that cannot be with much confidence.

Despite the optimistic win total, however, the position players are not particularly great here. There are not any significant bounce back candidates on the list -- not even Mitch Moreland. Like just about everyone else should, Davenport expects the Rangers to take a step back offensively. However, it doesn't expect as large a step back as some of the other forecasts do. The position players seem like a few All-Stars (Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler), some good, a lot of solid, and black holes at either catcher or first base/designated hitter, depending on where Napoli is playing that day. That's just fine, it's not as good as 2011, but it's still a good lineup. With some good pitching, that's a very good team.

Davenport thinks "good pitching" is an under sell. With 164 strikeouts, 58 walks, and a 3.56 ERA over 203 innings pitched, Darvish comes out as the third best pitcher in the American League, continuing a trend of forecasts liking the Japanese import a lot. This has been mentioned before, but systems were pretty high on Colby Lewis, too, and he outperformed them; there is an inspiring precedent here.

Lewis, by the way, comes out as the second best pitcher, just barely over Neftali Feliz. Feliz, however, only loses out due to fewer innings (189 to 165). Feliz's 144 strikeouts to 69 walks peg him as a solid No. 2 starter -- very nice for a first-year starter in a projection system -- with a 3.79 ERA.

Like every system, Matt Harrison and Derek Holland are both seen as candidates to take a step back, but they still both come out looking like middle of the order starters. That may not sound fantastic, but when your worst starter is a guy who could be a No. 3 on most teams (Holland is still a top 80 pitcher in baseball by WARP in the forecast), you have a very good rotation. Davenport sees the Rangers as matching up favorably on the mound against the typical team in any five game set, especially after the first two spots.

There's also the matter of the bullpen, where Davenport thinks the Rangers have the two best relievers in the entirety of baseball in 2012, in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara. It's by a negligible amount, but -- like ZiPS -- Davenport actually has Uehara as the better pitcher of the two. Complimenting them, Yoshinori Tateyama comes out as a solid reliever, and Joe Nathan comes out useful. The trend of Nathan looking nowhere close to the best in the bullpen continues, so that may make some early games scary, but we will have to see. Of course, there is also Alexi Ogando, projected to be good enough to make the Rangers' rotation, let alone help their bullpen.

And that is where you get a 100 win forecast. Davenport has the Rangers total pitching performance behind only the vaunted Phillies -- who don't have to face a DH -- and that's more than enough to compliment a good position player group.

Again, we know little about how the Davenport forecasts will look in seven months, but at the very least it's a nice boost of optimism to go with your lunch today.

Poll

Over/Under: 100 wins by the 2012 Texas Rangers.

Over

37 votes

Under

110 votes

Push

19 votes

166 votes | Poll has closed

Roy Oswalt To Rangers?

philkid3 — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 04:00:25 -0000

Beat writer Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a rumor for you if you're awake:

Hearing that Cards made bid approaching $5M on Oswalt weeks ago but not likely happening. Rangers probably win, at $2-3M more w/perks.

That's. . . interesting. . .

$7-8 million for Roy Oswalt is not too much of a reach. Even old and injured, he's a man who's been worth that much on the mound for pretty much his whole career. That's a deal unlikely to screw the Rangers up in any meaningful way financially.

The problem is more how he fits in with the Rangers. In 2010 -- against a weaker league -- Roy Oswalt's Phillies performance would have been the worst starter in the Texas rotation by a good margin. And unlike most of that rotation, Oswalt is on the wrong side of 30, and just suffered a major bulging disk injury this past season. His odds of actually improving Texas pitching seem slim at best.

The idea could be just to add as much depth to the roster as possible, which is not a bad plan; but if it comes at the expense of a Matt Harrison or Neftali Feliz getting to start, it seems questionable. Or, the idea could be to deal a young pitcher. Adam Morris had a tremendous piece on this very idea earlier today at Lone Star Ball, and suggests the Rangers might see Harrison's most recent season as the best he has to offer, and could be trying to sell high. Given a good haul, it would make some sense to strengthen a franchise that has a glut of young pitching talent and put in a good-enough stop gap for the coming season.

The coming season is kind of important, though, and that would probably need to be one heck of a trade to be worth losing a young arm that's already had a Top of the Rotation-caliber performance in his mid-20s while also making the current roster weaker. This just does not seem to make a lick of sense.

Then again, who am I to question the Rangers' front office? They're the ones that have won every AL pennant in the 2010s while maintaining a tremendously deep franchise; if I doubt them, I'm probably the one that's wrong. There might be something here we get and they don't.

Or there might not be.

Or this might just be one beat writer's unsubstantiated rumor.

Rangers, Yu Darvish Must Come To An Agreement

JP Starkey — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 16:26:18 -0000

The deadline for the Texas Rangers and Yu Darvish to reach a contract agreement is Wednesday at 4 p.m. CT. It's been believed all along that negotiations would last until deadline day, and here we are at deadline day. Both sides must realize that they need each other, and that an agreement is not only in the best interest of each party, but imperative.

Especially for the Rangers.

Texas' rotation even without Darvish is plenty respectable, as the Rangers figure to trot out Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, Alexi Ogando and Neftali Feliz. The Rangers have lost two lefty top of the rotation pitchers the last two years via free agency, and to date, haven't replaced either.

Last year, they coped just fine without Cliff Lee. This year, though, they need Darvish to help offset the loss of C.J. Wilson.

Every one of the starting pitchers currently in Texas' rotation has warts: Lewis had home run problems, Holland was Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, Ogando ran out of gas and had a poor second half, Feliz hasn't started in two years and Harrison has enjoyed success in just one of his four years at the big league level. Of course, all five of those pitchers have considerable potential as well, but it's certainly no guarantee, given their track records, that they put together consistent seasons in '12.

We don't know how Darvish will fare against MLB hitters. He probably won't ever be a top five or ten pitcher in all of baseball, but it's perfectly reasonable to expect that he could slot in comfortably at the top of a rotation.

Having Darvish in Texas certainly helps hedge the Ogando and Feliz bets. I do believe that Feliz will succeed as a starter, but there are certainly going to be speed bumps along the way, and having a solid top of the rotation certainly takes some pressure off the back end. Darvish helps solidify that top end.

In all likelihood, the Rangers and Darvish will come to an agreement prior to the 4 p.m. deadline. If they don't, though, the Rangers may be kicking themselves come July for letting Darvish slip away over one year and a few million dollars.

Who Goes To The Bullpen When Yu Darvish Signs?

JP Starkey — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 21:08:00 -0000

The Rangers are going to have a good problem in regards to their 2012 rotation come Spring Training. After the team signs Yu Darvish, which is expected, the Rangers will have six starters to compete for five rotation spots. On Saturday, Nolan Ryan acknowledged the obvious, saying that if and when Darvish signs, somebody in Texas' rotation will have to head to the bullpen.

Right now, the Rangers have Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Neftali Feliz slated for the rotation. Feliz is the only one of the five who didn't start last year -- and Feliz hasn't even started a game ever for the Rangers.

Still, it shouldn't be Feliz that heads back to the bullpen.

Feliz has already been told that he will make the transition to starting pitcher this season, and presumably, has been training as such throughout the offseason. Texas and Feliz went through a bit of the same song and dance last spring, but ultimately decided to let Feliz close. There's no sense in going through that again, and Feliz' highest ceiling comes from the rotation and not the bullpen.

Evan Grant points out in his article that the Rangers currently have no lefties in their bullpen, and that Harrison pitched out of the bullpen in 2010 for Texas -- insinuating that Harrison would be the logical piece to move to the bullpen if Darvish signs. Jon Daniels could still re-sign Mike Gonzalez to serve as the club's primary LOOGY in '12, diminishing the need for Harrison in the bullpen.

The answer is somewhat obvious. Alexi Ogando should be the one that moves back to the bullpen if and when Darvish signs. Ogando's second half, thanks in large part to a miserable August, was far worse than his first half: Ogando pitched to the tune of a 2.92 ERA, .213 BAA and 1.01 WHIP in the first half, while posting a 4.48 ERA, .267 BAA and 1.33 WHIP in the second half.

Ogando then shifted back to the bullpen for the playoffs, and pitched effectively in the ALDS and ALCS, but completely ran out of gas in the World Series, walking seven and giving up seven hits in 2.2 innings in the World Series.

Not only would Ogando be better off in the bullpen, but Texas' entire staff would benefit. Ogando holds more value out of the bullpen than Harrison does as a primary or secondary LOOGY type.

Of course, if the Rangers sign both Darvish and Roy Oswalt, then two pitchers are likely headed to the bullpen.

TV Schedule 10/28: World Series Game Seven: Rangers - Cardinals, Avalanche - Oilers

Jon Woods — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 15:07:27 -0000

Your Colorado sports TV time and channel schedule. Click on team names for information as well as a link to SB Nation's blog specially devoted to the team. All Times Mountain.

MLB - World Series
Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals, 6:05 p.m., Fox: Last night's extra inning, come from behind victory extended a fantastic World Series to a seventh and final game tonight in St. Louis. The Cardinals twice staved off two run deficits with two outs in the ninth and tenth innnings and had a walk-off home run from David Freese to win 10-9. The Cardinals have not yet named a starter for tonight's game but it looks like Texas will send Matt Harrison to the mound.

NHL
Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche, 8:00 p.m., Altitude: The Avalanche return back to Denver with two chances over the weekend to get their first home victory of the 2011-12 season. Colorado is tied for first place in the Northwest division despite starting 0-2 at home thanks to a 6-1 road record. Tonight they take on Edmonton, the team they are sharing that first place distinction with.

College Football
BYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs, 6:00 p.m., ESPN

2011 World Series Pitching Matchups & Probabilities Updates

philkid3 — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 20:30:27 -0000

If you read the World Series preview, you would have seen Edwin Jackson and Derek Holland predicted to play games three and seven. Obviously, we now know (and really have for a while, I've been admittedly slow at this) that is incorrect, as Kyle Lohse will be squaring off against Matt Harrison tonight, and again in a necessary game seven, with Holland and Jackson occurring only tomorrow.

On paper, this is a win for the Rangers in both ways. You could have a lively debate about Holland vs. Harrison, but the latter was better over the course of the season in ERA, tRA, and FIP: in short, he was better at run prevention and his peripherals backed that up. Holland's FIP looked better if you regressed his rate of homeruns allowed (xFIP), however, which means he could potentially be the better starter in St. Louis, and was better down the stretch run of the season than Harrison. Either way, it is likely a small loss at most, and a large sample of statistics call it a small gain right now.

The larger gain is from the Cardinals going to Lohse twice, rather than Jackson. Jackson's peripherals declined some with a switch to the National League, but overall, he was better peripherally than Lohse, with a slightly higher ERA, despite pitching most of his season in a more difficult league (with designated hitters). Lohse took a step forward this year to become merely a solid pitcher who would not likely make the Texas rotation, while Jackson remained a good pitcher for the third straight season.

Tony LaRussa is not just going to the lesser pitcher (again, on paper) either. He is walking in to a potential match-up nightmare, as well. Lohse throws the changeup more than four times as often as Jackson, and the Rangers just happen to be the second best team in baseball at hitting changeups. Lohse even gives up a few more fly balls, a dangerous tendency against a powerful team like Texas.

Unless the Cardinals know something not listed here, two of Lohse, instead of two of Jackson, is something Rangers fans should be extremely excited about. In the probability model used in the preview, Lohse vs. Harrison came out as the most one-sided game in Texas. That remains true, only moved up a day, and at the same time makes game seven look like a game that comfortably favors the Rangers should it get that far; even on the road.

As far as how the actual switch affects the series probabilities, it would have take the Rangers from 68% to win up to 71% to win before the games were played. Having now played two games, the Rangers come out as 73% to win the series.

There is one other thing that was ignored in the original preview, however: Josh Hamilton's health. He was assumed to be okay, and clearly he is not. With a sports hernia holding him back, the Rangers' lineup is in a bad situation. How much it holds him back we do not really know. If you call him, say, an average hitter, the Rangers dron down to 71% to win the series going forward; thankfully, not a huge drop, but he might not even be average. If you want to say Hamilton is currently as worthless as the average pitcher is at the plate, the Rangers drop down to a 59% chance to win the series. While still favored, it is a serious drop. Right now, the question is how hurt Hamilton is, and that won't be answered until the series is over. Hopefully, it does not end up being the difference between a title and another off-season of regret.

By the way, if you move Hamilton down to, say, seventh in the lineup makes almost no difference in the projection. Seeing him in the heart of the order like this is frustrating, but batting order makes such a tiny difference it is unlikely to matter over the next five games.