SB Nation - Luis Pena

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 12:31:45 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

Manny Parra delivers a meatball to the Nationals Sunday.

Some things to read while streamlining tech support.

There was a brief period of time this weekend where it looked like I'd be writing about a three game winning streak this morning and wondering if the Brewers could get back to .500 later today. Then, Bad Manny showed up and ruined all of that. 63% of the voters in the poll at that link think Parra will never be a productive major league pitcher. I went the other way, because Parra is still pretty young and could put it together, but it seems clear he's unlikely to develop consistency anytime soon.

The Brewers still have a pretty good chance to earn a series victory in Washington, as Yovani Gallardo takes the mound today. He needs 29 more strikeouts this season to become just the fourth Brewer ever to reach 200. He also needs two more wins to become just the third Brewer since the 2000 season to win 13 games.

If you missed it yesterday, and the site stats would suggest you did, TheJay and I both had notes on Prince Fielder: I took a look at the historical significance of Fielder's walks and TheJay speculated on Fielder's potential performance in the Midwest League. Of course after we spent half the day talking about him he went 0-for-4, just the second time in his last 14 games where he's failed to earn his way on base.

The Brewers open a three game series with the Reds tomorrow, and both teams will enter play with their rotation in a state of upheaval. For the Brewers, Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush will start on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, making their returns from the DL. The Reds, meanwhile, have yet to name a starter for Wednesday, but it won't be Aaron Harang, who underwent an emergency appendectomy over the weekend and could miss the rest of the season. Kip Wells is the likely candidate to replace him.

A quick side note: Is there such a thing as a non-emergency appendectomy? Why would a surgeon remove your appendix if it wasn't an urgent situation?

Roguejim has a look at the latest Elias rankings, with the Brewers still projected to have one Type A free agent and four Type B's. Felipe Lopez's recent play, though, has pushed him up to the edge of Type A status.

In the minors:

The Timber Rattlers drew 5459 fans to yesterday's game and set a new franchise record for single season attendance. With Brett Lawrie bobblehead day still remaining on their schedule, the Rattlers could surpass 250,000 fans this season.
The Rattlers also have (or, in the case of Brett Lawrie, had) two of the 50 youngest players in Low A ball, according to Project Prospect. Efrain Nieves is the other one.
What the Timber Rattlers don't have, though, is one of the Best Team Names in the Minors, at least according to Wezen-ball. The Brevard County Manatees do, though.

With back to back wins on Friday and Saturday, CoolStandings had upgraded the Brewer playoff chances to 1.8%, but they fell back to .7% with the loss yesterday. If that stat wasn't enough for you, Tyler Maas has ~~ten~~ nine signs your team is falling out of playoff contention.

Around baseball:

Astros: Signed Armando Benitez to a minor league deal.
Cardinals: Placed Kyle Lohse on the DL with a strained groin.
Mariners: Released reliever Luis Pena.
Marlins: Placed Brendan Donnelly on the DL with a calf strain.
Mets: Designated infielder Andy Green for assignment.
Phillies: Placed third baseman Greg Dobbs on the DL with a strained calf.
Red Sox: Designated reliever Fernando Cabrera for assignment.
Rockies: Placed Aaron Cook on the DL with shoulder soreness and signed Russ Ortiz and Jason Giambi.

Albert Pujols is batting just .279 since the All Star Game, and (gasp!) his OPS over that time is under 1.000. Clearly, without question, we should abolish the Home Run Derby.

If you're looking to read some in-depth analysis to get your brain working on Monday morning, then reading the Mug was clearly the wrong decision. Instead, you should check out Baseball Analysts' look at batters' decisions to swing at 3-2 pitches, and the possibility they're doing it too often.

On this day in 1993, Kevin Reimer went 6-for-6 as the Brewers beat the A's 7-6 in 13 innings. Reimer also drew an intentional walk to reach base a seventh time.

Happy birthday today to Everett Stull, who appeared in 22 games as a Brewer in 2000 and 2002 and turns 38 today. Happy belated birthdays to Mark DiFelice (33) and Zach Braddock (22), who celebrated their birthdays yesterday.

Oh, and long before he threw the banana, Orlando Hernandez had everyone doing The El Duque.

Drink up.

On the value of Luis Pena and Nick Green

KLSnow — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 18:19:40 -0000

Last week, with the addition of Nick Green off waivers from the Angels, the Brewers were forced to designate Luis Pena for assignment to clear a space on the 40-man roster, a move which led to Pena being claimed by Jack Z. and the Mariners. I haven't exactly seen a groundswell of negative reaction to the move, but I have seen a few people express disappointment over losing Pena, so I thought it warranted a deeper look at both players, to get a better feel for their value.

Pena turned 26 in January, and was signed by the Brewers out of Venezuela prior to the 2001 season. He pitched eight seasons in the Brewers' minor league system.

Year	Age	Team(Level)	ERA	WHIP
2001	18	Arizona (R)	4.63	1.57
2002	19	Arizona (R)	3.49	1.41
2003	20	Beloit (A)	3.90	1.53
2004	21	Beloit (A)	3.91	1.37
2005	22	Brevard County (A+)	4.26	1.32
2006	23	Brevard County (A+)	4.43	1.55
2007	24	Brevard County (A+) and Huntsville (AA)	2.63	1.04
2008	25	Nashville (AAA)	6.93	2.05

Whatever Pena found in 2007, it certainly took him long enough to locate it. Pena has been somewhat old for his level every year since around 2004. He improved slightly in his second try at low A, but regressed in his second year at high A. With the exception of 2007, he's allowed a lot of baserunners at every level. And, of course, he had a disastrous 2008 season in Nashville.

With that said, Pena throws hard, and a lot of value is put on that skill. If he finds a way to control his stuff he could be a key contributor to someone's bullpen and he's still young enough to have a nice big league career. His control isn't there yet, though, and may never be: Pena walked 47 batters in 49.1 innings in 2008, and has walked 247 in 531.2 career minor league innings (BB/9 of 4.18).

On the flip side, the Brewers were able to fill Pena's roster spot with Nick Green, a 24-year-old starter who has had the following career in the Angels' farm system:

Year	Age	Team (Level)	IP	ERA	WHIP
2004	19	Provo (R+)	51	3.88	1.47
2005	20	Cedar Rapids (A)	100.2	3.58	1.08
2006	21	Rancho Cucamonga (A+) and Arkansas (AA)	177	4.32	1.31
2007	22	Arkansas (AA)	178.1	3.68	1.10
2008	23	Salt Lake City (AAA)	159	5.32	1.45

Green's 2008 numbers probably deserve a slight adjustment, as Salt Lake is one of the friendlier run-scoring and home run environments in the PCL. Even so, Green was a solid performer who pitched a lot of innings while young for his level in AA in 2007, and assuming he can bounce back from a tough 2008 campaign, he could be an option to produce a fair number of league average or better innings for many years down the road.

So, what do you think? Was exchanging Pena for Green a good idea?

Poll

Was DFA'ing Luis Pena to pick up Nick Green the right decision?

No. Pena was too good to give up.

9 votes

No. Green peaked at AA and won't ever be a big league contributor.

7 votes

Yes. Giving up Pena is tough, but Green better filled a need and could have a better upside.

143 votes

Yes. Pena had one good year out of eight and won't amount to anything.

59 votes

It's a wash. Both these guys will benefit from a change of scenery.

45 votes

263 votes | Poll has closed

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 15:56:27 -0000

Some things to read while guarding a locked door.

Finally, after months of waiting, we have pictures of Brewers in baseball related activities. My favorites from the weekend:

Jason Kendall with the first "Wow, does your body really bend that way?" of spring.
Dave Bush's looks of intense concentration could be a neverending source of comedy.
Yovani Gallardo bunts with his tongue out.
Trevor Hoffman, Braden Looper and Yovani Gallardo throwing simultaneously. Apparently the Brewer bullpens are arranged in chronological order.
Ken Macha is talking but, of the four players pictured, only Jorge Julio looks like he even might be listening.

Bill Hall is already throwing, could take ground balls by midweek and expects to be back much sooner than the 4-6 weeks projected last week. I appreciate the enthusiasm, but if he ends up further damaging a partly torn muscle and missing time in the regular season, he's going to feel pretty stupid for rushing himself back to spring training.

Speaking of injuries, I'd like someone to explain this to me. From Tom H.'s camp report from yesterday, here's Gord Ash's quote on the hip surgery of Ramiro Mendoza, who failed his physical and left camp:

"The surgery was much more extensive than we thought," assistant general manager Gord Ash said. "That's not to say he can't pitch. He pitched all winter long. The hip surgery was more extreme than we thought so our doctors didn't want to take the risk."

What's "the risk" here? If Mendoza can pitch, and Ash notes that he pitched all winter, then why does the severity of his recent hip surgery matter? Worst case scenario, Mendoza injures his hip again and requires further surgery. Were the Brewers so scared of having to pay for Mendoza's hip surgery that they sent home a potentially useful pitcher?

Elsewhere on the transaction wire, the Mariners claimed Luis Pena off waivers and Vinny Rottino cleared and was sent to Nashville. Rottino will remain in big league camp for the time being.

Two weeks ago we mentioned that WGN announcer Cory Provus was the lone remaining candidate to fill the spot in the radio booth vacated by Jim Powell. It hasn't come up since then, and until this morning I had completely forgotten that it still hasn't been officially announced. The first Brewer spring training broadcast is February 25.

Yovani Gallardo still hasn't decided if he'll pitch for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic. I'm really surprised the Brewers aren't making a stronger effort to keep him out. An awful lot hinges on his ability to throw 180-200 effective innings this season, which is more than he's ever thrown before and about 160-180 more than he threw last season, so why would they want him pitching in the WBC in March?

Meanwhile, Seth McClung will work as a starter this spring. Chase Wright will too, but I lost the link for that one. You'll just have to take my word for it.

I think he's a great young pitcher and could develop into something special, but is Manny Parra really the kind of star athlete that has to worry about getting in trouble away from the ballpark? Apparently he's been hanging out with celebrity babysitter Julian Jones during the offseason. I'm not sure why I read that one.

If he was white we'd call him scrappy, but he's not so he's just short. Lisa Winston of MiLB.com has a profile and Q&A with Angel Salome. An awful lot of it is about how short he is.

Barring an injury or something unforeseen, Salome will open 2009 in Nashville, where Greer Stadium is undergoing a facelift. Some of the upgrades appear to be legally required, but new ownership appears to realize the stadium needs some serious work.

I'm guessing the rankings were compiled before the Looper signing, but Wrigleyville23 points out that Jayson Stark talked to 15 noted baseball writers and ranked the Brewers as the third least-improved team in all of baseball. Actually, with Looper, Chase Wright and Nick Green added to the fold, I'm not entirely unhappy with this offseason anymore. I think better things could have been done with the money given to Trevor Hoffman, but I do feel like the Brewers have done their due diligence to remain competitive.

Sticking with the "least improved" theme, though, Cybermetrics ranked Jeff Suppan as one of 2008's least improved pitchers.

On the transaction wire:

Angels: Agreed to a four year deal worth $30 million with Ervin Santana, avoiding arbitration.
Braves: May be competing with the Mariners for Ken Griffey's services.
Giants: Noah Lowry, currently on the outside of the Giants' rotation, has implied that he may be available via trade.
Indians: Signed Tony Graffanino to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.
Mariners: Reached an agreement with Josh Fields, their #1 pick from the 2008 draft. They also designated IF Tug Hulett for assignment to make room for Luis Pena.
Mets: Signed Livan Hernandez and Ramon Martinez to minor league deals.
Phillies: Signed Miguel Cairo to a major league deal and invited him to spring training. They also are looking for a home for Adam Eaton, who is due $9 million in 2009 and will not accept an assignment to the minors.
Yankees: Signed Brett Tomko to a minor league deal.

Major League Baseball is reportedly considering making exceptions to the rules and allowing Juan Cruz, Orlando Hudson and Orlando Cabrera to be signed and traded by their former teams, as all three players' markets have been hurt by the compensation required for signing a Type A free agent. I realize the market for these guys is rough, but if baseball changes the rules this late in the game the teams that passed on these players have every right to be furious.

All of these stories fit into the obvious spring training themes:

Unrealistic expectations: New Red Willy Taveras thinks he can steal 100 bases in 2009.
The comeback: 49-year-old Oil Can Boyd, who has not pitched in the majors since 1991, is attempting a comeback.
The new gimmick: New Met Francisco Rodriguez is wearing red contact lenses to ~~get in on this new vampire fad~~ decrease glare.

Here's another story we usually see multiple times every spring: Orioles P Alfredo Simon is having visa issues and is late to spring training. I realize this is probably harder than it sounds, but with roster spots and big time money on the line, wouldn't you go out of your way to make sure your visa was in line?

So it turns out Joe Mauer, who had minor kidney surgery in December, still has limitations on what he can do in spring training and hopes to be ready by Opening Day. Replacing an MVP-level catcher isn't something any team wants to be thinking about right now.

The amenities of big league camp got a little nicer in Tampa this season, where the Rays' new facilities have multiple person hot and cold tubs. Mine is nice, but getting everyone involved to agree on a temperature is still a challenge.

Oh, and any Yankees Elimination Program is something I can get behind.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 14:38:45 -0000

Some things to read while letting nothing stand in the way of your music.

In just a few short hours (at noon, to be specific), pitchers and catchers will report to Maryvale. View From Bernie's Chalet has the appropriate level of excitement.

I haven't heard yet if the two newest Brewers will be joining the team today, or if they need some extra time to make arrangements. First, Braden Looper: He officially signed with the Brewers yesterday. Troy Renick of the Denver Post has the best rundown of specifics and incentives in Looper's deal that I've seen. Here they are, best as I can tell:

Looper will make $4.75 million in 2009.
His incentive clauses start kicking in at 19 starts, and he can add up to $750,000 to his deal by making 30 starts.
He gets an extra $750,000 if traded this season, or $250,000 if traded next season.
The deal has a $6 million mutual option for 2010, with a $750,000 buyout.
That buyout escalates to $1 million if Looper makes 30 starts or pitches 180 innings.

Also yesterday, as noted in this FanShot, the Brewers picked up SP Nick Green off waivers from the Angels. To make room for Looper and Green, the team designated Luis Pena and Vinny Rottino for assignment. Joshua Kusnick of 39 on the Line is Pena's agent, and he gives us a quick look into what it's like to be the agent of a player on the move.

I'm starting to feel like I'm piling onto Corey Hart, but on top of posting a .300 OBP in 2008, he also had the fourth worst outfield arm in baseball last season according to Beyond the Box Score, costing the Brewers 4.6 runs.

As most of the Brewers were packing for Arizona, one former Brewer prospect packed for a longer trip: 2008 Nashville Sound Nic Ungs is headed to Taipei to pitch for the Brother Elephants in the Chinese Professional Baseball League. New Brewer bullpen coach Stan Kyles has some nice things to say about him.

Ben Sheets had successful surgery yesterday and could still pitch in the second half of 2009 if rehab goes well. Best of luck to him.

Speaking of luck, there's still time to test yours in the two remaining Brewer Advent Calendar giveaways: You have until noon today to sign up to win a ball autographed by the 2008 Nashville Sounds and until noon tomorrow to sign up to win Wisconsin Timber Rattler tickets and a Brewers/Timber Rattlers hat.

Now that spring training is starting I guess it's time to retire the hot stove, but there's still news to report on the transaction wire:

Marlins: Lost their arbitration case with Dan Uggla, who will earn $5.35 million in 2009.
Nationals: Are no longer interested in Orlando Hudson.
Rays: DFA'd reliever Juan Salas to make room on their roster for Brian Shouse.

It appears we can lay concerns about MLB coverage on satellite radio to rest: While Sirius-XM is still expected to file Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the near future, both MLB and the NFL are protected from said filings.

Every spring we get at least one bizarre injury that has nothing to do with baseball. The Mets narrowly avoided one when Mike Pelfrey rolled a golf cart carrying he and John Maine. It appears no one was harmed, but Pelfrey wore a helmet in workouts yesterday, just to be safe.

Oh, and the Braille on the "Umpires Room" sign at Dodger Stadium probably isn't necessary...I hope.

Twenty-two guys, four spots - Who's on your roster?

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 21:00:09 -0000

So, with Braden Looper in the fold, we know most, if not all of the following:

Barring a trade, Jason Kendall, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Bill Hall, Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron and Corey Hart will all be on the opening day roster, likely in starting roles.
Ditto for Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Dave Bush, Braden Looper and Jeff Suppan.
In the bullpen, Trevor Hoffman, Seth McClung, Carlos Villanueva and David Riske are virtually guaranteed spots. One more will almost certainly belong to a lefty, either Mitch Stetter or R.J. Swindle.
Craig Counsell, Mike Lamb and Mike Rivera are all back and very likely to be on the opening day roster in bench roles.

Given all of those assumptions, 21 of the 25 opening day roster spots are already decided. So what's left?

In the bullpen, two or three spots remain for all of the following players:

Todd Coffey. He still hasn't allowed a run as a Brewer and signed a major league contract to avoid arbitration. He's out of options.
Jorge Julio. Signed to a major league contract, making just under $1 million plus incentives.
Either Mitch Stetter or R.J. Swindle - whichever doesn't win the LOOGY job listed above. Throwing left-handed increases both pitchers' value, but Stetter posted a 3.20 ERA as a Brewer last season and Swindle posted a 1.98 ERA in AAA last season, so both guys already have some value.
Eduardo Morlan. Rule 5 pick has to be offered back to the Rays if he doesn't make the roster.
Mark DiFelice. 1.50 ERA in his last 14 outings as a Brewer (18 innings). Could be sent back to Nashville to work as a starter, but the Nashville rotation may already be full with Narveson, Gulin, Narron, Wright, and eventually Capuano.
Tim Dillard. Likely to be returned to AAA just because he has options remaining.
Joe Bateman, Luis Pena, Ramiro Mendoza, Omar Aguilar, Chris Narveson, Lindsay Gulin, Sam Narron and Chase Wright. Thanks for coming, guys. The eight of you and two or three of the guys above will likely pitch most of the innings for a nice staff in Nashville.

The Brewers could opt to go with a 13 man pitching staff and keep three of those guys, but then they'd have just one bench spot left. Instead, they'll likely keep 12 pitchers and pick two position players from the following list:

Tony Gwynn, Jr. Out of options, Gwynn either has to make the opening day roster or be exposed to waivers. However, he'll have to prove he's better than his .248/.300/.298 career MLB line and .243/.286/.286 major league equivalent from 2008, or he won't have much value. Also, his defense doesn't project well enough to help his chances: CHONE has him 11 runs below average in center.
Chris Duffy. Likely Gwynn's primary competition for the backup center field spot, Duffy's offensive numbers aren't earth-shattering (.269/.328/.361 in his major league career), but he's a plus defender (UZR/150 has him 6.2 runs above average in center).
Jason Bourgeois. Will likely have to win a spot as an outfielder, with Counsell and Lamb both occupying backup infield spots. Bourgeois hit .342/.404/.429 in Mexico this winter, but FanGraphs' 3 projections all have his 2009 OBP under .343.
Hernan Iribarren. Likely hurt by playing the exact same set of defensive positions as Bourgeois. Hernan also had a nice winter, hitting .306/.388/.451 in Venezuela and detonating two indisputables. Projections are similar, if not a little worse, than Bourgeois'. Likely a long shot to make the roster in the first place, he's hurt even more by having an identical player in camp with him.
Trot Nixon. If the Brewers go with 13 pitchers, Nixon and all the others below this point are already eliminated, as the last bench spot would have to go to someone who can play center. As a story, Nixon is very similar to Gabe Kapler at this point last year, but Kapler was three years younger.
Brad Nelson. He'll have to prove he can play a corner outfield spot to have much value, as Mike Lamb and Craig Counsell already have the infield covered. Likely has a higher long-term upside than Nixon if he's not a defensive liability, which he very well may be.
Casey McGehee. The Brewers insist they're eager to see what he can do, but unless he unseats Mike Lamb to platoon with Bill Hall, it's hard to imagine him making the roster. He has caught a little in the minors (including 17 games in 2008), so he could provide some value as a third catcher, but has never played the outfield, so if Lamb and Counsell are in, he's likely out.
Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar and Angel Salome. Unless the opportunity for one of them to play full time arises, all three are likely ticketed for Nashville, where they can continue to develop their skills.
Scott Thorman, Vinny Rottino and all of the extra catchers invited to camp. Again, thanks for coming, guys. Enjoy the improved post-game food while you can.

So, assuming everyone stays healthy, four of the 22 players listed above can make the opening day roster. Who do you want, and why? Also, if you were building this roster, would you keep 12 pitchers or 13? Discuss.

The Brewer Advent Calendar #2: The Nashville Sounds

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 18:00:11 -0000

You still have until noon tomorrow to register to win one of ten WhatIfSports Gift Certificates, but it's time to open another door. Today we find...the Nashville Sounds!

via www.baseballpilgrimages.com

The picture above is the scoreboard at Greer Stadium in Nashville, home to players that are just one step away from making it to the big leagues. The Sounds have been the Brewers' AAA affiliate since 2005.

As I write this, I have a ball autographed by 20 members of the 2008 Nashville Sounds. I need to give it away soon, because Gorman thinks it looks delicious. As is the case with any group of ballplayer autographs, I wasn't able to identify them all, but I'm pretty sure all of the following players are on it:

Tony Gwynn Jr
Vinny Rottino
Joe Dillon
Hernan Iribarren
Tim Dillard
Ozzie Chavez
Sam Narron
Erasmo Ramirez
J.R. Hopf
Luis Pena

And there are nine others for you to attempt to decipher for yourself. The rules are the same as yesterday: You have 48 hours to comment on this post to be entered into the drawing to win it, and I'll contact the winner by email. Thanks again to the Nashville Sounds for making this possible. Good luck!

The 2009 Bullpen - Where are we now?

KLSnow — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 18:00:06 -0000

A little less than a month ago, I wrote this post on the 2009 bullpen. Since then the following things have changed:

1) Jorge Julio and R.J. Swindle are Brewers now.
2) Todd Coffey re-signed for 2009.
3) Lots of 2009 projections came out.
4) Two-Fisted Slopper got me thinking about it again.

So, with that said, we have a new pitcher to add and projections to consider, so we're in a pretty good spot to take another look at the 2009 bullpen.

ASSUMPTIONS:

Before we start, I should note that I'm operating under the assumption that the Brewers will carry 12 pitchers and none of the bullpen arms listed below will be the fifth starter. Even with Sabathia and Sheets gone, I don't think there's anyone on this list the team would be comfortable using as a full-time starter.

Potential closers:

Seth McClung

The past:
2008, as a reliever: 25 G, 41.2 IP, 3.67 ERA, 26 BB, 37 K
Career, as a reliever: 87 G, 109.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 80 BB, 93 K

The projections:
Marcels: 89 IP, 4.35 ERA, 44 BB, 70 K
Bill James: 85 IP, 4.69 ERA, 49 BB, 73 K
ZiPS: 90 IP, 4.80 ERA, 61 BB, 72 K
Average: 88 IP, 4.61 ERA, 51.3 BB, 71.7 K

All of the projections seem to point towards a return to previous form for McClung, with the average projection coming out much closer to his 5.19 career ERA than his 3.67 ERA as a reliever in 2008. So, is the real Seth McClung the 2008 version, who emerged as one of the Brewers most reliable relievers, or will McClung's high walk totals drive his ERA up over 4.50 in 2009? Only time will tell.

Carlos Villanueva

The past:
2008, as a reliever: 38 G, 59.1 IP, 2.12 ERA, 14 BB, 62 K
Career, as a reliever: 95 G, 155.2 IP, 3.58 ERA, 52 BB, 149 K

The projections:
Marcels: 96 IP, 4.03 ERA, 34 BB, 82 K
Bill James: 92 IP, 3.85 ERA, 32 BB, 79 K
ZiPS: 94 IP, 4.60 ERA, 31 BB, 77 K
Average: 94 IP, 4.16 ERA, 32.3 BB, 79.3 K

Like McClung, Villanueva's rough outings as a starter in 2009 probably had a larger-than-warranted effect on his projections as a reliever in 2009. All three of his projections seem to think he won't be able to keep up the 3:1 K:BB ratio he's put up as a reliever throughout his career.

David Riske

The past:
2008, as a reliever: 45 G, 42.1 IP, 5.31 ERA, 25 BB, 27 K
Career, as a reliever: 438 G, 473.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 204 BB, 425 K

The projections:
Marcels: 53 IP, 4.25 ERA, 23 BB, 39 K
Bill James: 33 IP, 3.95 ERA, 15 BB, 27 K
ZiPS: 56 IP, 4.34 ERA, 27 BB, 48 K
Average: 47.1 IP, 4.22 ERA, 21.7 BB, 38 K

Well, the good news is that everyone seems to think Riske's 2009 ERA will be closer to his career figure than his disastrous 2008 numbers. The bad news is no one seems sold on him as a workhorse: Bill James only has him appearing in 38 games, which would be his least appearances since 2001.

The second tier:

Jorge Julio

The past:
2008, as a reliever: 27 G, 30 IP, 3.60 ERA, 19 BB, 34 K
Career, as a reliever: 438 G, 449.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 218 BB, 435 K

The projections:
Marcels: 46 IP, 4.40 ERA, 22 BB, 44 K
Bill James: 34 IP, 4.50 ERA, 17 BB, 33 K
ZiPS: 67 IP, 4.43 ERA, 39 BB, 73 K
Average: 49 IP, 4.44 ERA, 26 BB, 50 K

I guess it's within the realm of possibility that Julio could close in 2009, but I wouldn't call it likely. All of his 2009 projections are worse than both his 2008 numbers and his career numbers, which is puzzling since he'll only be 30 on Opening Day. All told, I think the projections are missing something here and Julio will exceed expectations in 2009.

Todd Coffey

The past:
2008 as a reliever: 26 G, 26.2 IP, 4.39 ERA, 8 BB, 15 K
Career as a reliever: 222 G, 213.2 IP, 4.46 ERA, 65 BB, 144 K

The projections:
Marcels: 43 IP, 4.71 ERA, 16 BB, 33 K
ZiPS: 76 IP, 4.62 ERA, 29 BB, 55 K
Average: 59.2 IP, 4.65 ERA, 22.5 BB, 44 K

Bill James doesn't have a prediction for Coffey, I'm not sure why. Here's another puzzling prediction, as Coffey is only 28 but his ERA is projected to go up and his K:BB ratio down from both his 2008 season and his career numbers. Even if he only performs at his projected level, though, he'd be a pretty nice bargain at $800k for 2009.

Mitch Stetter

The past:
2008, as a reliever: 30 G, 25.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 19 BB, 31 K
Career, as a reliever: 36 G, 30.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 21 BB, 35 K

The projections:
Marcels: 38 IP, 4.03 ERA, 18 BB, 33 K
ZiPS: 40 IP, 3.82 ERA, 20 BB, 38 K
Average: 39 IP, 3.92 ERA, 19 BB, 35.5 K

Again, no Bill James projection for Stetter. 39 innings as a LOOGY probably translates to about 50 appearances, and if Stetter can perform that way in 50 games, I think the Brewers will be pretty happy with his performance. And, as mentioned in seemingly every Brewer on this list, his ceiling is significantly higher than the projections would suggest.

R.J. Swindle

The past:
2008 (and career) as a reliever: 3 G, 4.2 IP, 7.71 ERA, 2 BB, 4 K

The projections:
Marcels: 27 IP, 4.33 ERA, 10 BB, 22 K

Again, no Bill James projection for Swindle, and I couldn't find his ZiPS either (Dan Szymborski hasn't released the Phillies yet), so the Marcels are what we have to work from. The major league stats aren't bright and shiny, but Swindle has posted an ERA under 2 in four minor league stops over the last three seasons, and posted an ERA under 1 in three of those four. All told, he's posted a 1.58 ERA in 194 innings over 104 minor league games. He is left-handed, but could potentially pitch to righties as well: lefties hit .135 off of him in the minors in 2008, but righties only hit .261.

Others that could be called upon:

Tim Dillard

The past:
2008 (and career) as a reliever: 13 G, 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 6 BB, 5 K

The projections:
Marcels: 32 IP, 4.22 ERA, 12 BB, 43 K

I threw out the ZiPS projection because I think there was a mistake: ZiPS had Dillard posting a 5.12 ERA in 123 innings of work. The ERA could happen, but Dillard hasn't started a game since 2007, so I'm not sure where 123 innings came from. The Marcel projection is much closer to being a full-season version of his 2008 performance, but with more strikeouts.

Mark DiFelice

The past:
2008 (and career) as a reliever: 15 G, 19 IP, 2.84 ERA, 4 BB, 20 K

The projections:
Marcels: 35 IP, 4.24 ERA, 12 BB, 28 K
ZiPS: 79 IP, 4.33 ERA, 14 BB, 59 K
Average: 57 IP, 4.30 ERA, 13 BB, 43.5 K

I still think most people would be surprised by the numbers DiFelice put up in his limited opportunity last season. While neither of the projections here would live up to that opening act, either would make him a pretty solid middle reliever, and maybe even give him enough time in the big leagues for me to remember his name is Mark, not Mike.

Joe Bateman

The Projections:
ZiPS: 69 IP, 4.83 ERA, 29 BB, 47 K

Bateman doesn't have any MLB experience, and as such he doesn't have Marcels or a Bill James projection. What he does have, however, is an ERA under 3 over each of the last two seasons, and an ERA under 2 in 33.2 innings in AAA last season. It's also worth noting that Bateman isn't on the 40 man roster, so he's eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.

Long shots:

Chris Narveson

The projections:
Marcels: 32 IP, 4.22 ERA, 12 BB, 26 K
ZiPS: 91 IP, 6.03 ERA, 41 BB, 60 K
Average: 61.2 IP, 5.56 ERA, 26.5 BB, 43 K

Narveson's ZiPS projection is as a starter, so that explains some of the difference, but Narveson hasn't had an ERA that low since he was a Cardinals prospect in 2006, so I'm not sure why the Marcels are so optimistic. Narveson might have had a chance of making the team as a second lefty, but now that Stetter and Swindle are both on the team and Shouse still could return, that seems less likely.

Luis Pena:

The projection:
ZiPS: 59 IP, 5.03 ERA, 40 BB, 38 K

Pena's projections for 2009 are almost certainly lower than they were for 2008, but not as bad as they could be, since he posted a disappointing 6.93 ERA in 49.1 innings in AAA.

Sam Narron:

The projection:
ZiPS: 123 IP, 5.41 ERA, 36 BB, 48 K

Narron's projections are also as a starter. Again, Narron is a lefty and in some organizations that might help him, but the Brewers seem to have plenty of lefties to go around.

So what do you think? Are you ready to go into 2009 with this pen? Who are you concerned about?

The 2009 Bullpen - What are we starting with?

KLSnow — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 18:00:07 -0000

So, barring a change of plans, Salomon Torres is gone and the Brewers are not planning to pursue a high-profile free agent reliever like Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes.

Salomon Torres, who saved 28 games for the Crew last season, retired yesterday. Brian Shouse, Eric Gagne and Guillermo Mota are free agents and might not be back.

Assuming Doug Melvin's comments linked above mean he also won't want to risk big money on Kerry Wood, Japanese import Koji Uehara or Trevor Hoffman, that might mean the Brewers are headed into 2009 with a bullpen that's tweaked around the edges, if it gets modified at all. Let's take a look at what that might mean for the Brewers in 2009:

CANDIDATES FOR CLOSER:

Seth McClung: I'm not sure if all Brewer fans love Seth McClung or if the infatuation is limited to this corner of the internet. But when Grant Balfour was 0-2 with a 20.25 ERA in his first three outings as a Brewer, if Doug Melvin had publicly said, "I'm going to flip him to Tampa for a guy that'll throw 105 slightly above average innings next season," we might have thrown the Mustache a parade. McClung has the stuff to make hitters look overmatched when he's on. If he's not needed in the rotation, he might be the best fit to close.

2008, as a reliever: 25 G, 41.2 IP, 3.67 ERA, 26 BB, 37 K
Career, as a reliever: 87 G, 109.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 80 BB, 93 K

Carlos Villanueva: Got an opportunity to start in 2008, but did not perform well. When reverted to the bullpen he showed improvement the rest of the way. Villy has said in the past that he'd prefer to start, but he's much more valuable to the Crew in the bullpen, and one would suspect that getting high profile innings as the closer of a good team might be exciting for him too.

2008, as a reliever: 38 G, 59.1 IP, 2.12 ERA, 14 BB, 62 K
Career, as a reliever: 95 G, 155.2 IP, 3.58 ERA, 52 BB, 149 K

David Riske: After getting a long-term deal after the 2007 season, Riske had an injury riddled and ineffective 2008 season that I'm sure most of you will remember. A lot can change in a year...a year ago at this time we were talking about David Riske as the setup man for Derrick Turnbow. 2008 aside, though, Riske had been very consistent throughout most of his eight year career before coming to Milwaukee, posting an ERA+ over 115 in six of his last seven seasons, over 190 in three of the same seven. If he comes into spring training healthy, he could be ready to bounce back in a big way.

2008, as a reliever: 45 G, 42.1 IP, 5.31 ERA, 25 BB, 27 K
Career, as a reliever: 438 G, 473.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 204 BB, 425 K

OTHERS THAT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE:

Mitch Stetter: As things stand right now, he's the only lefty I see with a guaranteed spot in the bullpen, and even that guarantee isn't 100%. I don't think one can hope for Stetter to be as effective as Shouse was, but if Shouse returns, having Stetter and Shouse in the bullpen could give Ken Macha lots of opportunity to play matchups late in games. Stetter's walk numbers from 2008 are inflated by three outings in May where he was left out to hang and walked 8 batters in an inning.

2008, as a reliever: 30 G, 25.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 19 BB, 31 K
Career, as a reliever: 36 G, 30.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 21 BB, 35 K

Tim Dillard: The Brewers didn't use Tim Dillard a lot in 2008 (just 14.1 innings), and they didn't use him often in wins (3-10 record in his appearances), but when they did use him he didn't embarrass himself. Dillard led off his big league career with five scoreless outings where he only allowed one hit and two walks in 5.2 innings, and he only had one outing all season where he gave up more than one earned run. Not once in my life have I said "Oh good, Tim Dillard's coming in." But with that said, he was only slightly below league average (ERA+ of 98) in his games this season, and if the Brewers released him he could be on about 15-20 teams' rosters on Opening Day.

2008 (and career) as a reliever: 13 G, 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 6 BB, 5 K

Todd Coffey: Seemingly an afterthought when Doug Melvin picked him up, Coffey threw 7.1 scoreless innings over nine appearances as a Brewer in 2008, dropping his 2008 ERA from 6.05 as a Red to 4.39 overall, which is close to his career mark of 4.46. For some reason, I thought he was much older: Coffey turned 28 in September. He's had two above average and two below average seasons in his career, but even the below average seasons were disappointments, not implosions. He can contribute to a staff somewhere, if not in Milwaukee.

2008 as a reliever: 26 G, 26.2 IP, 4.39 ERA, 8 BB, 15 K
Career as a reliever: 222 G, 213.2 IP, 4.46 ERA, 65 BB, 144 K

Mark DiFelice: DiFelice made his big league debut at age 31 in May, and his debut didn't suggest he'd stay long: DiFelice gave up three runs on five hits in an inning in one of the losses during the Brewers' disastrous sweep in Boston that was supposed to cost Ned Yost his job. After that, all DiFelice did was post a 1.50 ERA in 18 innings over his next 14 appearances. Like Dillard, he didn't pitch in a lot of Brewer wins (the team was 4-11 in his appearances), but he pitched effectively when called upon. And while he made his debut at 31 and turned 32 in August, he's still likely got a few seasons in the tank, if not more.

2008 (and career) as a reliever: 15 G, 19 IP, 2.84 ERA, 4 BB, 20 K

OTHERS THAT COULD BE CALLED UPON:

It's worth noting that at this point, without re-signing Shouse, Gagne or Mota, without Torres unretiring and without any free agent additions to the bullpen, the Brewers have 7 relievers and, assuming a five-man rotation, 12 pitchers overall. But if they need more, these guys are waiting for a shot:

Joe Bateman: A 28-year-old righty, Bateman tripped somewhere on the ladder to the big leagues and spent 2 years in AA with the Giants before splitting this season between AA and AAA with the Brewers, despite the fact that he's posted an ERA under 3 each of the last two seasons and posted a 1.60 ERA in 33.2 innings in half a season in Nashville in 2008. He's struck out 200 and only walked 66 over 175.2 innings over the last three seasons. This winter, he's pitching for Este in the Dominican Winter League, and is 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA in 14 innings.

Chris Narveson: Last spring, he didn't miss making the Brewer roster by all that much, and made Doug Melvin comfortable enough to cut the cord on Claudio Vargas. Narveson will come into camp at 27 years old and, despite having a disappointing season in AAA (6-13, 5.43 ERA in 136 innings, primarily as a starter), he could get a shot to reinvent himself as a lefty who throws strikes out of the bullpen. Narveson has walked just 168 hitters over his last 406.2 innings over four seasons in AAA, and struck out 311 in that time. And did I mention he's left handed? Narveson is spending the winter pitching for Hermosillo in Mexico, where he recently picked up his second straight win, and is 2-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 34.1 innings (6 starts).

Luis Pena: In 2007, Pena climbed the ladder quickly, going 5-4 with a 2.63 ERA and 18 saves between Brevard County and Huntsville and earning himself a promotion to Nashville for 2008. He struggled with the Pacific Coast League, though, going 2-3 with a 6.93 ERA in 49.1 innings in 2008. Pena's meteoric rise in 2007 followed two seasons with an ERA over 4 in Brevard County, so it's possible his 2007 season was an aberration and not a trend. But it's also possible he could put it back together in 2008 and emerge as a contributor. He's spending the winter pitching for La Guaira in Venezuela, but has only appeared in three of the team's 23 games.

Sam Narron: Stop me if you've heard this one before: Narron is a 27-year-old lefty who has taken a little longer to develop than expected. He had a meteoric rise through the Rangers' organization, culminating in a 2004 season in which he went 6-0 in AA, 8-2 in AAA and made one start for the Rangers. After the season, the Brewers picked him up off waivers and Tommy John surgery cost him the entire 2005 season. Narron has worked his way back up the ladder and spent much of 2008 in AAA, where he struggled a bit to adjust and posted a 4.80 ERA in 120 innings. Like Joe Bateman, Narron is pitching for Este in the Dominican Winter League (Narron is starting, Bateman is relieving). So far he hasn't had much success in winter ball, going 0-3 with a 7.82 ERA in 12.2 innings, but again: he's still only 27, and he's lefthanded.

With those four, the Brewers will bring 11 potential bullpen arms to spring training, plus any free agents they may sign or re-sign. I don't think this bullpen is going to be as bad as some are saying it will be. What do you think?