SB Nation - Kyle McClellan

The Astros most impressive performances in 2009: The hitters

DyingQuail — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:57:54 -0000

More photos » by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

Not the guy you're expecting to see with a post about "most impressive batting performance."

This idea struck sometime in late August as I was watching, most likely, another Astros loss. I thought it would be a good idea so I randomly threw it onto Things for today.

The idea is pretty simple, what were the top three greatest performances that players put up during the season. Because I'm saber-slanted, I'm using WPA to quantify greatest. I've spent all morning clicking through every player's play log to find their highest WPA/play in order come up with the top three in hitting and pitching. Today is about the hitters, and the results will likely surprise you.

No. 1 - Kaz Matsui on September 5th

The man on the mound, a familiar Brad Lidge. The situation, down one in the bottom of the ninth, the bases juiced with two outs. What does Kaz do? He lines a 1B right field scoring JR Towles and Jason Michaels—the tying and the winning runs.

via www.fangraphs.com

Kazuo Matsui picks up a tidy .734 WPA on that one play. That's staggering. Of course, he's aided by the fact that the leverage situation was an insane 10.78, but he came through. That graph is ridiculous. Congrats, Kaz.

No. 2 - Miguel Tejada on September 9th

Compared to Kaz's ridiculous three-quarters of a win performance just four days earlier, Tejada's performance feels a little pedestrian. The real trajedy of this day, is that Lance Berkman gets squeaked out of the top three, even though were it not for him, Tejada doesn't make the list.

After Lance doubled to put runners at 2B and 3B, the Braves IBBed Carlos Lee to bring up Tejada, with one out (this reads like a terrible decision until you remember that it's Miguel "GIDP" Tejada at the plate). The result is that Tejada sends a ground ball to CF bringing in Kaz Matusi and Berkman to put the Astros on top 2-1.

via www.fangraphs.com

Tejada walks away with .471 WPA for his troubles and the number two performance.

No. 3 - Jeff Keppinger on August 27th

Top of the ninth. None on and two out. Astros tied 3-3 with the St. Louis Cardinals. Keppinger takes Kyle McClellan deep for a HR to put the Astros on top.

via www.fangraphs.com

Incidentally, Keppinger garners .421 WPA with the HR, but most importantly: Keppinger earns the highest isolated WPA performance of the season.

Keppinger's swing was just involved he and McClellan, where as Kaz and Miggy had the table set for them. I'm not saying that because they had their situations created by the play of players in front of them that they don't deserve credit for coming through with "clutch" hits, but with Keppinger, you don't have to wonder if more credit should be shifted to the table setters.

So, in your opinion....

Poll

What was the greatest batting performance by an Astro in 2009? (the choices are cryptic because you should read the post before you vote)

9/5

15 votes

9/9

3 votes

8/27

9 votes

Other - I'll explain in the comments

2 votes

29 votes | Poll has closed

Dodgers, Cardinals Set Rosters for NLDS

Eric Stephen — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:31:23 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Emperor Palpatine takes questions before tonight's game

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Tonight	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

The Dodgers and Cardinals have announced their roster for the division series.

Dodgers

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (7): James Loney, Ronnie Belliard, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (4): Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

Pinch Hitters (1): Jim Thome

Starting Pitchers (4): Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Chad Billingsley

Relievers (7): Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Jon Garland, Jeff Weaver

Cardinals

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Jason LaRue

Infielders (7): Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Old Friend Joe Thurston

Outfielders (4): Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel

Starting Pitchers (4): Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, one of John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse

Relievers (8): Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, one of Smoltz or Lohse

The Dodgers starting rotation will be Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, and Chad Billingsley, in that order.

The Cardinals will counter with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro for the first three games. Either John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse, who will both be available in the bullpen tonight, will start game four on Sunday.

Brewers 12, Cardinals 6

KLSnow — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 03:41:03 -0000

W: Braden Looper (14-7)
L: Kyle McClellan (4-4)

HR: None

MVP: Ryan Braun (+.273)
LVP: Braden Looper (-.271)

Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage

Where was this two months ago?

For the first six innings, it looked like more of the same for the Brewers tonight, as they fell behind 6-0 and looked lifeless against Adam Wainwright, who was cruising towards his 20th win, which likely would have made him the only major leaguer this season to reach that mark.

Then, all of a sudden in the seventh, the Brewer bats came to life and the Cardinals completely imploded. From the top of the sixth on, the Brewers scored 12 unanswered runs, partially fueled by five Cardinal wild pitches and one passed ball, and quickly turned a laugher for the Cardinals into a blowout victory for the Brewers.

Ryan Braun went 2-for-5 in the game, picking up hits #198 and 199 on the season. Felipe Lopez, Alcides Escobar, Craig Counsell and Jody Gerut all also had multiple hits. Prince Fielder went 0-for-2 but walked three times.

The Brewer bats covered up another awful performance from Braden Looper, who allowed six earned runs on ten hits in six innings of work tonight, and trailed 6-1 when he was pinch hit for. Not only did the Brewer bats save Looper from a loss once again, they rallied just in time to get him his 14th win. Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas and Trevor Hoffman each pitched a scoreless inning to close out the game.

Looper did manage to get through six innings without allowing a home run, so he'll finish the season with 39.

At least it wasn't the NLDS

DanUpBaby — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 06:59:13 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

I'm not saying that either one of us ([Chris Carpenter and the towel]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."

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Let's pull that Ryan Franklin quote again—

I'm not saying that either one of us ([the Cardinals and their fans]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."

Yeah, that sounds about right.

This mini-crisis is a great time to considerwhere we are now as to where we were back in April—now that the Cardinals are not completely invincible it's worth thinking about. The bullpen, for instance:

Where we were then: I couldn't find a quote quite representative enough, so if I may channel myself, circa March—

I love this bullpen. Love love love love. There are about a million players in it, and they're all young and cheap, and maybe we should trade Ryan Franklin for a season ticket package or just put him on a bus somewhere with all the other old people so that I can watch all these cost-controlled, thoroughbred right-handers compete for the closer's role. These guys are so crazy and awesome that they flip out ALL the time.

Where we are now:

I'm not saying that either one of us ([the Cardinals relief pitchers, opposing batters]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."

The Cardinals' vaunted relief Whiz Kids have seen attrition from both sides; on one, Jason Motte struggles with throwing the ball past opposing hitters and Kyle McClellan has trouble throwing it near them, and on the other several pitchers are throwing the ball for other teams.

Taken in isolation I can't really argue with either of the major deals that siphoned off relief depth; Mark Worrell and (erstwhile throw-in) Luke Gregerson was a small price to pay for what seemed like an upgrade at shortstop, and Chris Perez and Jess Todd was the going rate for a guy who, for a brief time, seemed like he would upgrade multiple positions at once.

But I don't think either of these trades can be seen as a win for Mozeliak, or even as an extenuating-circumstances draw; these are flat-out misses. In the Khalil Greene deal—my favorite of the two moves, even now, for its ingenuity—Mozeliak bet some of his bullpen strength on a cheap way to upgrade for this year. In that way it resembles a deadline deal, only with a full year of that deadline-deal magic (you know, Al, it really does); there's no potential future benefit to hedge against the flags flying forever. I'd argue that it was a gamble the Cardinals were justified in making, but so far they've gambled wrong on both sides; Khalil Greene hasn't turned into Khalil Greene, and Luke Gregerson—78 K in 65 innings, a .434 OPS against righties—has turned into Russ Springer.

The DeRosa deal has to be looked at in its very fleeting context—after the Greene deal and the Motte/McClellan problems were noticeable, before the Holliday and Lugo deals rendered his positional versatility basically useless. That they cancel each other out seems only fitting for a deal that's a complex win or a complex loss.

The Greene deal meant that the Cardinals could no longer trade from the bottom of their relief deck; the fungible relievers weren't quite so fungible anymore. But their subsequent dealings might be more damaging to the DeRosa rationale; as a straight replacement at third base DeRosa, especially the one they got, was a major offensive improvement but not a worldbeater. During his time with the Cardinals he's been worth a little less than a win over Thurston's year-to-date offensive levels. (Defense—charitably—has been a wash.) That's a good upgrade, as far as deadline deals go, but it's not the one they paid for.

The upgrade they paid for was three-headed—they could put him at third against right handers and pair him with Khalil Greene to spell Skip Schumaker or the Duncan/Ankiel Platoon of Despair that was stuck in left field. Then they traded for Julio Lugo to spell Skip Schumaker; they they traded for Matt Holliday to replace the P.O.D. Then he was the starting third baseman. I appreciate not having to watch Joe Thurston every day, but Chris Perez has proven what we really knew anyway—he's the best of the Cardinals young relievers, and he was traded at a moment when the Cardinals realized they needed them more than they'd thought.

Now the Cardinals have to worry about Ryan Franklin, who is not, it can be said, at this point, finding some new talent level. Over the course of his last two seasons as a Cardinal he's proven himself to be a Pretty Good reliever. Unless some new information comes to light in the next two weeks, that's probably what he's going to be. It's tough having him as your top right-hander, but that's different from having to worry about him if you carry a lead into the ninth inning—most relievers will save most games most of the time. He's not going to go oh-fer a series. The problem is getting the lead to him with the pitchers that are left.

But if you're worried that Franklin might be totally cooked now, your real concern ought to be the rotation—it's Franklin writ large, but with much better players. Certainly Wainwright might really be this good; certainly Carpenter was once this good and this healthy; certainly Joel Pineiro, uh, has had a fine season. But all at once? That's how World Series teams are made, to be honest—lots of players peaking at once, some who you never thought had it in them. But it's only clear that those players kept it together long enough to see their Norm Cash years through in hindsight.

Tonight, of course, Todd Wellemeyer—the stopper—makes it clear that there's no need to worry.

Cardinals 3, Dodgers 2

Eric Stephen — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 06:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Andre Ethier homered tonight, but it was one of only a few bright spots for the Dodger offense tonight.

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I used to think of Rocky IV when I thought of the Cardinals. Now I think of Rocky V. This game never happened. Do you hear me? Never. Happened. Albert Pujols beat the Dodgers tonight, but with his legs, not with his bat.

Clayton Kershaw couldn't get though the fourth inning, mixing occasional wildness with the inability to put hitters away without throwing a lot of pitches. Still, he only gave up two runs, and James McDonald and Ronald Belisario stemmed the tide until the Dodgers were able to tie it up with two home runs in the seventh inning.

Kershaw has thrown 97 pitches in each of his last two starts, but has pitched a total of only eight innings, while giving six runs.

In the ninth inning, Jonathan Broxton was brought in, for his third consecutive game, to face the heart of the Cardinal lineup. Broxton walked Pujols, setting up the key play of the night, in which there was a lot of blame to spread around:

Broxton didn't do a good job holding Pujols -- who had 11 stolen bases entering tonight -- on first base, and Pujols got a great jump toward second base
Russell Martin rushed a throw that had no chance of getting Pujols, and it bounced in front of Orlando Hudson
As the ball got by Hudson, Rafael Furcal wasn't backing up the play, nor were Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier close enough to keep Pujols from going to third base

Now on third base with nobody out, Pujols scored easily on Matt Holliday's sacrifice fly.

Tonight was Broxton's first loss of the season. The Dodgers have lost five straight series to the Cardinals. The Dodgers won't have to play the Cardinals again this regular season, but could very well matchup in October.

Jeff Weaver fills out his portion of the Dodgers' patchwork starting rotation tomorrow against the Cubs and Tom Gorzelanny.

WP -Kyle McClellan (4-2): 1 IP, 1 walk, 1 strikeout

LP - Jonathan Broxton (7-1): 1 IP, 1 unearned run, 1 walk, 1 strikeout

Sv - Ryan Franklin (31): 1 IP, 3 up, 3 down

Box Score

Three out of three out of four

DanUpBaby — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:00:32 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

St. Louis Cardinals' Matt Holliday prepares to be curtain called into signing a below-market contract in the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in a baseball game, Thursday, July 30, 2009, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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Nobody left but Wellemeyer, and he's not very good; by the twenty-fifth inning of baseball a deep bullpen won't have much left, let alone one that's carrying three long men and was forced, at this point, to deploy the worst one. The real story is Kyle McClellan's continued struggles with control and, more generally, effectiveness. I'll say it again: with the fifth spot in the rotation used more sparingly and no longer manned exclusively by Todd Wellemeyer, this club's problem is depth on the right-hand side of the bullpen, namely not having any of it.

Should the Cardinals make a trade? I'm not sure there are many more bullets left in that gun, but assuming Holliday is staying past 2009, Daryl Jones for a cost-controlled reliever who doesn't suck or Jon Jay and trinkets for a Dave Weathers type wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. In fact, it might even be better than watching Todd Wellemeyer pitch with runners on base.

But bittersweetness aside, this is a series to feel good about, and by god I'm not going to dwell on this loss, if for no reason other than the fact that yesterday's Wellemeyer-looking-sad picture is already in use. (As someone who has looks at the photo-selector every time I write a post I think I am in a position to say this: Wellemeyer leads the league in head-in-hands AP photos, and it isn't particularly close. For a guy who is sanguine after every start—"Well, I thought my stuff was great, I just threw one bad pitch and those seven runs got in"—he spends a lot of his time in the dugout auditioning to appear in Linkin Park videos.)

So, with that in mind: three things worth dwelling upon in this series:

1. Batting Around

When I think of batting around, personally, I think of the NBA All-Star Game. That's a terrible lead-in, because I honestly have no reason for making that connection; It just has that feel for me, especially in home games. When Schumaker came back up to the plate on the 28th it felt like Shaq was trying to dribble the ball between his legs or something, and everybody, Dodgers, Cardinals, fans, was in on the joke. It's like when a position player comes in to pitch, too, only there's no solemn moralizing from the losing manager and the guy the backup second baseman strikes out. On this team, which has not only acquired an extra all-star but has also suddenly become enjoyable to watch, the connection's even more real to me.

It wouldn't be defensively advisable, but it's heartening to have, in reserve, the thought that the Cardinals could field a lineup in which the only player who doesn't get on base more than an average NL hitter is Colby Rasmus, who Everybody Knows is a thicker mustache away from being an offensive juggernaut. Even the defensively minded shortstop—out for a few days, if you didn't see it, and spooked enough by his bruise that he, a guy who licks his shoulder before every at-bat, called it gross—is an offensive upgrade from last year's model.

When was the last time the Cardinals had an offense this prone to turning itself over? Well, would you believe last year? It's hard for me to consider this, because those mid-80s wins/no playoffs teams always seem like long, unrewarding slogs after the fact, but they could get on base—what they lose at second, short, and Matt Holliday they gain at third, Rick Ankiel, and Ryan Ludwick. In fact, the last time the Cardinals weren't in the top five in NL OBP—if this year doesn't count—was 1999, a team that hit well when everybody was hitting well, and also gave Eli Marrero 343 plate appearances with an on-base percentage of .236.

It's a simple diagnosis to come to, but I guess that's why this team has been frustrating in a way that 2008's wasn't, even though they've spent a good portion of the season comfortably in first place—these Cardinals teams haven't pitched, sometimes, and the 2007 squad seemed bound and determined to leave all the home run hitting to Albert Pujols, but they've always gotten on base.

Watching this one do it, after months seemingly devoted to every player on the team having a two week period in which he is not allowed to get on base except by fielder's choice, is making something I've taken for granted as a Cardinals fan a lot sweeter.

2. Rick Ankiel!

I'm going to link the video from yesterday's home run because that swing is the platonic ideal home run for Rick Ankiel; it's the one I imagine when I hear him hit one on the radio. When I was pulling that video up I happened to take a look at his other recent home runs—July 25 in Philadelphia (shut up Ken Rosenthal), July 23 in Washington—and I was surprised to see that the swing each time looked almost identical. (For a prototypical swing, I will admit, even as the biggest Rick Ankiel fan there is, it doesn't happen very often.)

The same is true of their statistics on HitTracker; all three have a true distance over 400 feet, all of them were hit at a considerably higher vertical angle than his usual shot, and all of them would have been a home run at all 30 ballparks. The interesting thing is that he's never been one to hit these Majestic Home Runs; his vertical angle of 31.4 degrees for the home run in Washington was the fourth highest of his career, and at 121 feet its apex was a career high. Most of his home runs, even at his hottest in 2008, were liners, hit below the bottom of what HitTracker calls the usual range; lately, with his new-and-improved swing, there's something different.

And something different is good for a guy who's only got home runs to show for seven percent of his fly balls this year. I'm not saying that this is evidence of something that's going to carry over, or that it's proof his approach really has improved; it's just one more thing that suggests it. And now that he's the fourth outfielder, I'm happy with that.

3. Mitchell Boggs Day

Wellemeyer losing yesterday's game—sorry, I know I promised—is good news if you're not too strict about that whole means to an end thing. It means that today the Cardinals will live or die, for the first time since it became obvious that something was wrong with Todd Wellemeyer, with their best option on the mound.

Given the moral victory that that, by itself, entails, all I want is this: more strikeouts than walks; fewer runs than innings pitched. Stay above the Wellemeyer line, basically.

Oh, while we're at it: fewer runs than Brian Moehler allows.

A Quick Peek At The Cards

Eric Stephen — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 18:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Stan "The Man" Musial.

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The Dodgers head to St. Louis for a four game series beginning tonight, in a place that has been a house of horrors for the Dodgers the last couple of years. The Dodgers have dropped 14 of their last 17 games at differing versions of Busch Stadium.

Analyzing the Cardinals up to this point is instructive to a point, but their recent acquisition of outfielder Matt Holliday changes things quite a bit. The middle of the Cards' lineup now looks as formidable as any team in the National League:

Pos	Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
1B	Pujols	.325	.445	.693	1.138	.458
LF	Holliday	.297	.336	.471	.857	.378
RF	Ludwick	.275	.339	.500	.839	.366

Of course, having Albert Pujols makes any lineup formidable, but the team certainly looks much improved. Add in recent acquisitions Mark DeRosa and Julio Lugo, and the offense looks even better.

The Cardinals pitching staff is led by brilliant yet fragile ace Chris Carpenter, who is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA so far in July. Carpenter is led at the top by Adam Wainwright, who is quietly putting together an outstanding season (11-6, 3.55), and a resurgent Joel Pineiro, who has a 2.95 ERA built on shockingly low amounts of walks, homers, and strikeouts. The Cardinals starting staff lead the National League in inning per start, at 6.2.

The bullpen is led by closer Ryan Franklin, who has been outstanding this season (2.97 FIP, 22 saves), with major contributions from lefties Trever Miller (3.25 FIP) and Dennys Reyes (3.88 FIP), and Kyle McClellan (4.15 FIP).

The Cardinals are coming off a 2-5 road trip, but Monday's game marks the first game at home for new acquisitions Holliday and Lugo, so expect a raucous crowd.

2009 Cardinals
Record	53-48, 2nd NL Central, ½ GB
Pythag Record	53-48 (5th in NL)
Runs Scored	4.40/gm (8th in NL)
wOBA	.322 (10th in NL)
Runs Allowed	4.20/gm (6th in NL)
FIP	4.00 (5th in NL)
Defensive Efficiency	.697 (8th in NL)

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Viva El Birdos is the SB Nation Cardinals blog. Here are some recent posts:

ChuckB takes a look at the Julio Lugo for Chris Duncan trade
A look at the potential of Troy Glaus playing the outfield (unlikely now with the Holliday acquisition)

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Pitching Probables

Monday: Randy Wolf (5-4, 4.24) vs. Chris Carpenter (8-3, 2.70 FIP), 4:05pm

Tuesday: Chad Billingsley (10-5, 3.50 FIP) vs. Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.61 FIP), 5:15pm

Wednesday: Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 3.38 FIP) vs. Joel Pineiro (9-9, 2.99 FIP), 5:15pm

Thursday: Hiroki Kuroda (3-5, 3.55 FIP) vs. Kyle Lohse (4-6, 4.51 FIP), 5:15pm

First Half Relievers

chuckb — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 06:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Kyle McClellan celebrates the fact that he hasn't been been worked as a pack mule the way he was during last season's first half. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Yesterday we discussed the virtues of the Cards’ starting rotation for the first half of the season so I thought it fitting to talk today about the pen. Unfortunately, the pen in the first half of the season hasn’t been quite as good as the rotation. For example, the Cards’ pen has only been worth 1.6 runs above replacement – TOTAL – for the entire first half. That’s 25th in the majors. Despite the pen’s 3.76 ERA, their FIP is 4.39, tied for 20th in the majors. And all this takes into consideration the fact that Ryan Franklin has pitched far beyond expectations during the first half and should regress during the 2nd half.

The best relievers on the team over the first half have been Franklin (5.3 RAR) and the 2 lefties – Trever Miller (2.1 RAR) and Dennys Reyes (1.1 RAR). Aside from those 3, the Cards’ pen has been rather pedestrian w/ only Kyle McClellan getting meaningful innings out of the pen and pitching above replacement level.

In comparing the division’s bullpens I wanted to look at the top 4 relievers (by RAR, provided they have a meaningful number of innings pitched) since those are the ones most likely to get meaningful innings during the second half of the season. This means examining each team’s closer, set up man, and a couple of specialists. After all, it doesn’t really matter how well Blake Hawksworth pitched yesterday afternoon since the team had very little chance to win the game when he entered anyway. It does, however, matter how well Franklin, Motte, McClellan, and the 2 lefties pitch in the 2nd half.

Cards	RAR	Brewers	RAR	Cubs	RAR	Reds	RAR	Astros	RAR	Pirates	RAR
Franklin	5.3	Hoffman	8.5	Guzman	4.3	Cordero	7.8	Sampson	8.9	Grabow	0.8
Miller	2.1	Coffey	8.1	Heilman	1.0	Masset	7.5	Fulchino	3.2	Chavez	0.1
Reyes	1.1	Stetter	5.8	Gregg	0.6	Rhodes	3.5	Hawkins	2.4	Meek	-0.6
McClellan	0.4	DiFelice	4.6	Marmol	-0.2	Herrera	3.3	Valverde	0.9	Capps	-2.0

So the picture for the bullpen isn’t quite so rosy as that for the rotation. As with yesterday, these numbers can’t be seen as being predictive of what might happen in the second half. They’re simply a reporting of what happened during the first half. I’d expect, for example, for Jose Valverde’s numbers to rise since he was hurt for about 6 weeks during the first half. The team totals for their respective pens are as follows:

Brewers – 27.0 RAR
Reds – 22.1 RAR
Astros – 15.4 RAR
Cards – 8.9 RAR
Cubs – 5.7 RAR
Pirates – minus 1.7 RAR

So just as the Cards’ hopes seem to ride on the backs of their starters, the Brewers’ seem to ride on the backs of their pen, which has been fantastic during the first half. The same appears to be true for the Reds, though w/ their young pitching, they’re awfully scary. I’d also expect the Cubs’ Carlos Marmol to pitch better during the 2nd half, though he put a scare into the hearts of Cubbie fans worldwide w/ his 9th inning hijinx yesterday. Adding in the totals of the starters, this brings each team’s rotation’s numbers to:

Cards – 87.1 RAR
Cubs – 72.9 RAR
Astros – 66.8 RAR
Reds – 50.4 RAR
Pirates – 49.5 RAR
Brewers – 42.7 RAR

The big lead our starters had over the Brewers and Reds and, to a lesser degree, the Astros, shrunk quite a bit b/c of the performance of the pens. Needless to say, we’re going to need McClellan and Motte to pitch better over the 2nd half of the season than they did in the first half. Overall, I think Motte’s done pretty well except for 3 blow-ups and should improve, provided he doesn’t wear down as McClellan did last year. We’re going to depend on McClellan to NOT wear down, despite the fact that he leads the team’s relievers in IP w/ 41. For what it’s worth, at the All-Star break last year McClellan had thrown 52 innings so I’m glad to see that he’s thrown about 20% fewer so far this season. If our starters can continue to pitch well, the team will demand less from our pen and that should help ease Motte’s workload as well. Still, I wouldn’t expect the pen to be the team’s strength over the 2nd half of the season.

Double header today. First game at noon and then the nightcap at 7. There will be separate game threads for each. Join us and let’s get to the All-Star break w/ a split and I’ll be happy.

Pujols Nukes Slowey

Jesse — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 22:11:38 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

5 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols watches his first home run of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning Saturday, June 27, 2009, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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That was the definition of getting Pujol'd.

John Madden used to pontificate about what would happen when the unstoppable force came into contact with the immoveable object. Well this afternoon, we saw what happens when Albert Pujols played both roles. He wasn't about to be moved by what Kevin Slowey was pitching, and I probably don't need to explain why he was unstoppable.

The weather wasn't doing favors to the pitchers. When it's as hot and humid as it was in St. Louis on Saturday afternoon, it can be hard to concentrate pitch after pitch after pitch. Both Todd Wellemeyer and Slowey would attest to this, as neither of them managed to see the fourth inning. Unfortunately, Slowey is the one who pitched longest, which meant he was on the mound in the third inning to see Pujols come around for the second time. That first bomb was on a slider right down the middle of the plate, so naturally Slowey mixed it up the second time around. It was a first pitch fastball, up in the zone, and Pujols pulled it to left for his 28th home run of the season.

Take one moment to appreciate the greatness that is the AP of the baseball world. What's it like to slug .700? Just ask him.

On the plus side, Brendan Harris managed to give the Twins a momentary glimmer of hope. Down 2-0 following Pujols' first shot, Harris blooped a bases-loaded single and with the help of a diving Chris Duncan. All three runners crossed the plate to five the visitors a brief 3-2 lead. Bobby Keppel actually pitched four innings of shutout baseball, giving the Twins offense a chance to take back the game. They never did, and in fact Keppel was the only man to reach base after the fourth inning by taking a walk in the seventh.

Josh Kinney, Trever Miller, Kyle McClellan, Dennys Reyes, Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin combined to give the Cardinals 6.2 innings of scoreless baseball. Which is fantastic, for St. Louis. But considering who some of those guys are, and how they pitched, the Twins have to be disappointed about missed opportunities.

One chance to take back the series, coming tomorrow. See you there.

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (1-for-1, .044 WPA)
#2: Brendan Harris (2-for-4, 3 RBI, .209 WPA)
#1: Bobby Keppel (4 IP, 2 H, 3 K, 3 BB, 0 R; 0-for-0, BB, .127 WPA)

Matt Holliday On His Way to St. Louis?

Matt Buggenhagen — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 17:51:32 -0000

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According to a report in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals are ready to pursue the A's outfielder Matt Holliday.

The Cardinals appear to be very frustrated with their outfield production (rightly so) and believe Holliday might be the answer.

Holliday, at first glance seems to be the best available bat on the market, and would be a major upgrade for the Cardinals.

As we have reported it appears the price tag will not be cheap. A's GM Billy Beane is notorious for demanding a high return value on his players. It is believed that the A's are looking for major league ready pitching, to go along with additional prospects.

The Post-Dispatch reports, "Such a package would probably include right fielder Ryan Ludwick and either reliever Jason Motte, Chris Perez or Kyle McClellan, plus a prospect."

Holliday, who is a former batting champion, is currently batting .274 with eight homers and 39 RBIs.

St. Louis certainly appears to be a good fit for Holliday, the main question is whether the package they present will be suffice for Billy Beane.

In the end I certainly think Holliday will be moved, however, look for Billy Beane to try and get several teams involved to drive up the price. I'm not saying this deal won't get done, but I wouldn't expect it to happen overnight.