SB Nation - Mike Parisi

Rule 5 Draft Impressions

John Sickels — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 17:57:26 -0000

2010 Rule 5 Draft Review

There wasn't a lot of super-exciting action in the Rule 5 draft this year, but some interesting players did change hands. From the look of it, most teams were on the lookout for bullpen help, which makes sense since it is easier to carry an extra pitcher these days than an extra hitter.

1) Yankees: Jamie Hoffman, OF, from Dodgers: The Yankees traded up to make sure they got Hoffman, who hit .284/.360/.455 this year for Triple-A Albuquerque and .182/.167/.409 in 14 games with the Dodgers. The 25-year old is a right-handed hitter and thrower with average tools, including decent speed, occasional power, and fairly good plate discipline. He can be a useful reserve outfielder.

2) Pirates: John Raynor, OF, from Marlins: Another potential reserve outfielder, the 25-year old Raynor hit .255/.326/.357 for Triple-A New Orleans, but swiped 18 bases. He had a much better season in 2008, hitting .312/.402/.489 with 48 steals for Double-A Carolina. Raynor's speed would look good on the Pirates bench but he probably won't hit enough to be a regular.

3) Rangers: Ben Snyder, LHP, from Giants: Snyder posted a 2.88 ERA with an 86/38 K/BB in 97 innings for Double-A Connecticut this year. The 24-year old Ball State University product struggled as a starter when reaching Double-A in '08, but was much more effective after converting to relief this year. He could provide some solid LOOGY or long relief innings for the Rangers in 2010.

4) Royals: Edgar Osuna, LHP, from Braves: This 22-year old southpaw from Mexico posted a 3.72 ERA with a 49/21 K/BB in 77 innings for Double-A Mississippi in 2009. His fastball isn't very fast, but he changes speeds well and throws strikes with his effective breaking ball. He could be a useful 11^th man, capable of spot starting and long relief work.

5) Indians: Hector Ambriz, RHP, from Diamondbacks: Ambriz is 25 years old, a fifth rounder out of UCLA in 2006. He was mediocre as a starter for Triple-A Reno this year, with a 5.57 ERA and a 103/40 K/BB in 128 innings with 164 hits allowed. He does get his fastball past 90 MPH and has a good splitter, and I could see him being a decent relief arm with spot starter potential.

6) Diamondbacks: Zack Kroenke, LHP, from Yankees: A University of Nebraska product (fifth round 2005), Kreonke posted a 1.99 ERA with a 55/30 K/BB in 72 innings for Triple-A Scranton this year. The 25-year old has an 88-92 MPH fastball with movement, and he could end up being an astute pick as a bullpen asset if his command sharpens a bit more.

7) Mets: Carlos Monasterios, RHP, from Phillies: This 23-year old from Venezuela posted a 3.73 ERA with a 71/27 K/BB in 82 innings for Class A Clearwater. His 90 MPH sinking fastball is an asset and he throws strikes, but scouts give mixed opinions about his slider and he's unproven above the A-ball level. If the command is there he can help out in the major league pen. TRADE: He was sold to the Dodgers after the draft.

8) Marlins: Jorge Jimenez, 3B, from Red Sox: A 25-year-old third baseman, Jimenez was a 15^th round pick in 2006 from Porterville Junior College. He hit .289/.366/.422 this year for Double-A Portland, showing decent plate discipline and touches of power with 13 homers. He could fit as a pinch-hitter and platoon player but seems unlikely to become a significant regular.

9) Athletics: Bobby Cassevah, RHP, from Angels: The 24-year old Cassevah posted a 3.68 ERA with a 45/37 K/BB in 73 innings for Double-A Arkansas this year. The strikeout rate was weak, but he gets tons of grounders with his 92-94 MPH sinker, resulting in a 4.03 GO/AO ratio. If he throws strikes, he can be an effective middle reliever.

11) Blue Jays: Zech Zinicola, RHP, from Nationals: The 24-year old Zinicola posted a 1.74 ERA with a 16/9 K/BB in 21 innings for Double-A Harrisburg, but was much less effective for Triple-A Syracuse, with a 7.56 ERA and a 31/10 K/BB in 33 innings but 47 hits allowed. A sixth round pick out of Arizona State in '06, he throws hard and often throws strikes but has an erratic track record. He could be a good middle reliever if he improves his consistency.

12) Brewers: Chuck Lofgren, LHP, from Indians: Lofgren was once a hot prospect, but two erratic seasons have hurt his stock, though perhaps a change of scenery can help him. He posted a 1.48 ERA with a 31/15 K/BB in 43 innings for Double-A Akron this year, but went 6-10, 5.31 with a 62/33 K/BB in 98 innings after moving up to Triple-A Columbus. Sometimes he throws hard, sometimes he doesn't, and his command is likewise inconsistent.

13) Cubs: Mike Parisi, RHP, from Cardinals: The 26-year old Parisi missed almost the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery, making just five rehab starts in the lower minors. When healthy he shows decent command of three pitches but does not throw hard. He could help out as a mopup man in the back end of the bullpen, but is a long shot to make a huge contribution.

14) Rays: Armando Zerpa, LHP, from Red Sox: The 22-year old Zerpa, a Venezuelan, posted a 1.20 ERA with a 51/14 K/BB in 45 innings for Greenville in the South Atlantic League. He has average velocity but a good slider and has dominated lower-level hitters when his command is on. His command is not always on, so it is unlikely he'll see high-leverage innings in the 2010 bullpen.

15) Mariners: Kanekoa Texeira, RHP, from Yankees: Tezeira posted a 2.84 ERA with an 88-43 K/BB in 101 innings for Double-A Trenton, used as a long reliever and spot starter. The 23-year old has an excellent slider and a solid fastball, but inconsistent control has held him back. He could help out in the bullpen if he solves his command issues.

16) Giants: Steven Johnson, RHP, from Orioles: Baltimore acquired the 22-year old Johnson from the Dodgers this past summer, and he's a very solid sleeper prospect, having pitched very well after moving up to Double-A this year thanks to a complete 90 MPH fastball/curveball/slider/changeup arsenal. He's still inconsistent, but is young and could develop into a solid inning-eater .

17) Cardinals: Ben Jukich, LHP, from Reds: Jukich is 27 years old. A soft-tosser with a good curveball, he went 9-6, 4.10 with a 106/40 K/BB in 123 innings for Triple-A Louisville this year, allowing 125 hits. The former 13^th round pick out of Dakota Wesleyan is having a fine winter ball season in the Dominican Winter League. The Cardinals may be looking at him as a left-handed short man, although his platoon splits haven't been extreme.

18) Phillies: David Herndon, RHP, from Angels: A fifth round pick in 2006 out of Gulf Coast Community College, Herndon posted a 3.03 ERA with a 35/14 K/BB in 65 innings for Double-A Arkansas this year. His fastball velocity is average, but he has a decent sinker and slider and throws strikes, making him an option as a middle reliever. He gets lots of grounders and posted a 2.28 GO/AO at Arkansas.

A Few AFL PITCHf/x Leaders

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 00:42:00 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

Drew Storen can do this for real, too.

Browse more photos »

I like the Arizona Fall League. I've been tracking and classifying a lot pitches, thanks to the PITCHf/x installations in Peoria and Surprise. Nearly 10,000 pitches through Saturday's Rising Stars Game.

Let's take a look-see at some of my favorite stats. These are based only on PITCHf/x data. Some, such as ground ball rates, can be expanded to cover the non-PITCHf/x games, too. But I'm not. I'm also collapsing across pitch types due to sample size issues and a lack of finality on many of those classifications.

Anyway, on with the Strasburg. I mean Storen. I mean show.

The minimum pitch total I'm using is 59. Read Hardball Times on Tuesday and you'll figure out why. Hint: Aaron Crow's pitch total.

	Whiff
Lee Hyde	0.458
Sergio Santos	0.396
Michael Dunn	0.377
Scott Gorgen	0.373
Craig Kimbrel	0.353
Robert Wooten	0.345
Stephen Strasburg	0.339
Daniel Moskos	0.333
Zach Braddock	0.333
Jenrry Mejia	0.317

	B:CS
Drew Storen	1.4
Michael Dunn	1.4
Zach Braddock	1.4
Robert Wooten	1.4
Daniel Meszaros	1.4
Dustin Richardson	1.5
Matthew Long	1.6
Mike Leake	1.6
Logan Ondrusek	1.6
Aaron Hartsock	1.6

	In Wide Zone
Wilton Lopez	0.646
Logan Ondrusek	0.646
Mike Parisi	0.632
Jeff Lyman	0.604
Carlton Smith	0.597
Ryohei Tanaka	0.591
Bryan Augenstein	0.589
Ian Kennedy	0.580
Michael Dunn	0.579
Drew Storen	0.577

	GB%
Aaron Hartsock	75%
Stephen Strasburg	73%
Carlton Smith	69%
Josh Wilkie	67%
Connor Graham	64%
Jeff Mandel	63%
Jenrry Mejia	63%
Wilton Lopez	62%
Tommy Mendoza	59%
Javy Guerra	59%

	LD%
Wilton Lopez	0%
Spencer Steedley	0%
Steve Hirschfeld	0%
Brennan Garr	4%
Sergio Santos	5%
Joshua Fields	6%
Javy Guerra	6%
Aaron Hartsock	6%
Daniel Meszaros	7%
Drew Storen	8%

Notice how well Mejia and Strasburg rank in Whiffs and Ground balls? Storen is all over the place, along with Dunn.

Speed Check - AFL vs. MLB

Harry Pavlidis — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:45:10 -0000

Stephen Strasburg's fastball is raising some interesting questions. While Strasburg was on the mound on Monday, a Tweet and an email (so old fashioned) came in asking about the Surprise, AZ, PITCHf/x data. Was it hot?

Strasburg throwing 101 was a surprise to many, and seeing him sit near 98 for a few innings raised more questions. I took a look at the two PITCHf/x installations in the Arizona Fall Leauge (Surprise and Peoria) this morning at the Hardball Times.

The basic conclusion was, no, the system in Surprise isn't hot. Relative to Peoria, that is.

Assuming the two systems are pretty much on par, the opportunity came up to compare AFL pitchers to themselves as MLB pitchers. Using release speed (55 ft. from home plate) I was able to compare data from 14 pitchers.

Nothing fancy and statistical, but, as you browse the baker's dozen + 1 set of images below, I think you'll probably reach the same conclusion I did.

The years shown in the parentheses indicate the MLB seasons the pitcher appeared in. The scale is to the game (actually at bat) and varies by pitcher. September 2009 call-ups will have a vastly different x-axis scale compared to a pitcher who worked back in 2007. But it's the y-axis (MPH) that matters.

Bryan Augenstein (2009)

Randor Bierd (2008)

Josh Butler (2009)

Michael Dunn (2009)

Matt Harrison (2008-2009)

Wilton Lopez (2009)

Ian Kennedy (2007, 2009)

Joe Martinez (2009)

Andrew Miller (2007-2009)

Mike Parisi (2008)

Dustin Richardson (2009)

Travis Schlichting (2009)

Mitch Talbot (2008)

Donald Veal (2009)

AFLf/x ain't hot if you ask me.

Arizona Fall League PITCHf/x - Day One

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:05:39 -0000

No, I won't do this everyday (maybe). Yes, I have a huge back-log of New Arms. More on that below...

Today was opening day in Arizona, as top prospects in the Arizona Fall League started their short season. Thanks to MLBAM, PITCHf/x will be running in Peoria and Surprise (home to 3 of the 6 teams in the league).

The Gameday IDs will be pretty good as things progress, as the MLBAM team is getting more information on the lesser known pitchers in the league. They already have weightings in the system for pitchers who have seen big league time and some from the higher minor leagues, according to Cory Schwartz, Director of Stats for MLBAM.

I quickly classified the pitches from today's game myself, without splitting two- and four-seam fastballs. I want more data from the pitchers, and the new installations, before I get too fancy. All that's after the jump...first, a teaser.

I've got the ALDS and NLDS all tidied up and classified. I'll share some of the numbers tomorrow night.The bigger effort is nearly done ... classifying all pitches thrown in 2009 by rookies. And position players. I've completed initial classifications for all 120-something of them, and I'm in the process of reviewing and revising. Or in the process of getting ready to review and revise. Dang AFL distracted me .... oh yeah, read on for the pitch classifications from today's action in Peoria.

Click the headers to sort.

pitcher	cfx	#	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Andrew Oliver	Change-up	2	85	5	9	150	1979
Andrew Oliver	Fastball	21	93	4	12	162	2595
Andrew Oliver	Slider	6	83	-5	5	228	1390
Brennan Garr	Fastball	11	91	-7	9	219	2323
Brennan Garr	Slider	3	81	-1	-2	311	385
Eric Krebs	Change-up	3	83	-11	4	251	2081
Eric Krebs	Fastball	17	92	-8	6	234	2125
Eric Krebs	Slider	8	83	-1	-2	251	459
Gary Daley	Change-up	5	84	-7	3	249	1501
Gary Daley	Curveball	1	80	1	-9	10	1561
Gary Daley	Cutter	1	93	0	5	179	981
Gary Daley	Fastball	10	92	-8	4	245	1832
Grant Duff	Change-up	1	83	-7	-1	275	1243
Grant Duff	Curveball	5	83	0	-3	206	765
Grant Duff	Fastball	12	94	-4	8	207	1832
Ian Kennedy	Change-up	6	83	-9	5	241	1871
Ian Kennedy	Curveball	9	78	2	-10	13	1759
Ian Kennedy	Cutter	1	92	-1	7	189	1487
Ian Kennedy	Fastball	29	91	-8	7	229	2057
Ian Kennedy	Slider	7	85	-1	2	230	430
Mike Parisi	Fastball	3	92	-8	5	238	2050
Mike Parisi	Slider	1	86	-2	4	204	923
Omar Aguilar	Change-up	5	81	-11	0	269	2096
Omar Aguilar	Fastball	30	91	-7	7	225	2177
Omar Aguilar	Slider	4	81	1	2	153	556
Robbie Weinhardt	Change-up	4	86	-12	2	260	2402
Robbie Weinhardt	Curveball	9	84	0	-4	166	879
Robbie Weinhardt	Fastball	27	92	-9	2	257	1921
Scot Drucker	Change-up	5	83	-9	3	252	1802
Scot Drucker	Curveball	2	77	3	-5	32	1055
Scot Drucker	Fastball	29	90	-9	7	232	2332
Scot Drucker	Slider	2	79	2	0	89	347
Sergio Santos	Change-up	6	86	-10	1	260	2052
Sergio Santos	Curveball	2	85	0	-8	180	1549
Sergio Santos	Fastball	15	96	-7	4	241	1766
Sergio Santos	Slider	1	86	-1	1	241	266
Zachary Kroenke	Change-up	6	78	4	6	141	1247
Zachary Kroenke	Fastball	16	91	6	9	145	2190
Zachary Kroenke	Slider	3	83	-1	6	194	1126