SB Nation - Jason Motte

Closers as synonym for Relievers

DanUpBaby — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 11:00:30 -0000

^^ is a closer.

The Matt Holliday Question—I like thinking of it that way, as though its ramifications for Singapore are about to be discussed in an unsigned piece in The Economist—has kept us from freaking out about the bullpen. In some ways this is a good thing; there's nothing less satisfying that worrying about The Bullpen Question, which is never answered to our satisfaction on a year-to-year basis. But with Holliday in Flux, we've got no choice. As a prompt, this headline from Ken Rosenthal: "Too many closers, not enough jobs":

For some closers, the free-agent game of musical chairs is not likely to end well...

Two more closers -- Pirates righty Matt Capps and Nationals righty Mike MacDougal -- became free agents when their respective teams declined to offer them salary arbitration.

The availability of the Padres' Heath Bell in trade only adds to the squeeze. Bell is more affordable than some of the closers on the open market...

Four teams already have found closers. The Braves signed left-hander Billy Wagner. The Orioles signed left-hander Mike Gonzalez. The Rays traded for righty Rafael Soriano and the Astros signed righty Brandon Lyon...

This article is why the term "closer" is worthless. I'm done trying to convince people any other way—no more decrying the overrated concept of "closing experience", of "the closer's mentality", of anything else that can be measured statistically. Mike MacDougal, Heath Bell, Billy Wagner, and Mike Gonzalez are all described here, by a well-regarded baseball reporter, as closers. If that is the case—then this term is completely without meaning.

Does labeling this set of relievers "closer" tell you anything more about them than labeling them relievers would? Just one thing: they have all pitched in the ninth inning for at least one season. This information is completely worthless.

That aside—this is not an extremely promising crop of relief pitchers. Jose Valverde is the best free agent, but as a Type A free agent who was offered arbitration he'd cost the Cardinals a draft pick. The Cardinals haven't been linked to Matt Capps's list of finalists, and that he's in such demand following a really ugly season—Jason Motte with fewer strikeouts and walks?—is condemnation enough of the remaining prospects. (Though, seriously, where are they on Kiko Calero? Where is everybody on Kiko Calero?)

For these prospects are, in grand La Russa/Duncan fashion, interesting-but. My favorite, and probably Duncan's favorite, is Mike MacDougal, but my interest is purely as a spectator; his fastball is awesome, his nickname is awesome, and he gets a ton of groundballs and doesn't give up any home runs, which would be awesome if he were still striking batters out. (Bizarre, possibly related Fangraphs fact: he almost totally stopped throwing his once-vaunted slider last year, going with the fastball more often than Jason Motte.) MacDougal's not likely to be a good reliever, and my taste in bad relievers aside he's of interest mostly as a Dave Duncan lottery ticket. But he's also a closer, so there's that.

What this means for the Cardinals is that barring a trade their improved bullpen will have to come from within. Is anybody here willing to nominate someone other than Motte as the bullpen savior in 2010? Relievers are so difficult to predict that I've almost stopped doing it; it's the last baseball territory in which my emotions are basically sovereign over my common sense, and it would definitely be my weakness if I were a GM. Francisco Samuel? Certainly this is the year he puts it all together, perhaps under the steady tutelage of a veteran closer like Mike MacDougal. Casey Mulligan? He's apparently got no stuff whatsoever, but he's dominated four levels in two years, so why not? Gary Daley? Well, he got to AAA, and he didn't walk 25 batters per nine innings this year.

I thought about ending this entry with a poll, but there are just too many choices, even though in the end my tastes run, conventionally, toward Mitchell Boggs, whose fastball looked nearly as good as Mike MacDougal's in the bullpen, and Eduardo Sanchez, the only blue-chip reliever left in the high minors. It's just that in the bullpen it's harder than any other corner of the roster to discount the possibility that someone who I was not counting on at all in March is carrying the team in July.

Dodgers, Cardinals Set Rosters for NLDS

Eric Stephen — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:31:23 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Emperor Palpatine takes questions before tonight's game

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Tonight	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

The Dodgers and Cardinals have announced their roster for the division series.

Dodgers

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (7): James Loney, Ronnie Belliard, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (4): Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

Pinch Hitters (1): Jim Thome

Starting Pitchers (4): Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Chad Billingsley

Relievers (7): Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Jon Garland, Jeff Weaver

Cardinals

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Jason LaRue

Infielders (7): Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Old Friend Joe Thurston

Outfielders (4): Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel

Starting Pitchers (4): Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, one of John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse

Relievers (8): Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, one of Smoltz or Lohse

The Dodgers starting rotation will be Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, and Chad Billingsley, in that order.

The Cardinals will counter with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro for the first three games. Either John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse, who will both be available in the bullpen tonight, will start game four on Sunday.

Reflection

the red baron — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 18:10:08 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

I would write a proper caption, but I could only cheapen the image. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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Another offensive explosion, another sterling win for our heroes in red, another night of beautiful transit from summer into autumn. The leaves are turning, and that old familiar whisper of excitement is in the air of the city. We've missed it the past two seasons, and sorely. But that whispering, chattering idiot noise of September bliss is back in force now, as those of us born and bred into Cardinal love look to October glory once again.

Or maybe, more correctly, a vibration; a low humming everywhere you walk that has always been and always will be as the days shorten and cool. It begins in March, that hum of anticipation for the season about to begin, and continues on through the summer months, rising and falling with the fortunes of the Cardinals and the red-clad masses who follow. There are peaks and there are valleys; walkoff wins in the night over Chicago and listless losses to Pittsburgh. But it is always always always there, curling around your life until you barely even notice it. Some years that hum fades as the Cardinals fall out of the race, victims of poor planning, poor performance, or poor fortune. Some years the end of summer brings only a sigh, an inward invocation of next season as the year current winds toward its death. Some years that hum falls away with the leaves as their colour finally goes brown and they drop to the ground.

But not this year. No, this year there is a building, a hum that becomes a buzz that becomes a singing that becomes a ringing that becomes a shout. Playoff baseball is coming to St. Louis, and you don't have to look or listen for the anticipation. You only have to feel it.

It was a hell of game last night, one with a little bit of everything we hope to love about this team. There was an outstanding pitching performance. The offense simply overwhelmed the opposition, and the defense stepped firmly down on their necks to keep them from thoughts of rise.

In the whole game, though, the moment which stood out most to me, the key to the game if you will, was Colby Rasmus' plate appearance in the third inning. There were two outs, and Skip Schumaker had just driven in Julio Lugo for the first tally of the game with a single up the middle. It was an outstanding piece of work by Schumaker to begin with, to get the Cards' first baserunner of the game home after Lugo was sacrificed to second base. But the turning point was Rasmus. Behind him was Albert and the middle of the lineup; if Bazardo could just get the rookie, Pujols would have to lead off the fourth.

The count went quickly to 0-2, as Bazardo threw a wicked little changeup for a called strike one and Colby fouled off a fat fastball. The next pitch was another changeup, a little down and a little away, just the sort of pitch you want to see your pitcher throw on a two strike count. It was ohsosweet and tempting, and no one would have been surprised, I think, to see Colby swing. But he didn't. He let it go with a look, and just like that, the most important pitch of the game was taken for ball one. After that, Bazardo tried to clip the outside corner with fastballs, but he had left his paintbrush at home and Rasmus wisely just let the pitches go. Four straight balls and Colby trotted down to first base.

Albert came up with two men on and drove in Skip, and that brilliant bit of baserunning razzle-dazzle by Pujols and Colby plated the Cards' third run. But it was the walk that really created the inning. If Rasmus makes an out there, the inning is but a footnote in the eventual story of the game, one run on a clutch single in the third. Pujols bats leading off the fourth inning, and who knows where the story goes then? But Colby refusing to swing at that 0-2 changeup changed the entire dynamic of the inning. Instead of Albert leading off the fourth, he came to bat with two men on in the third, and Bazardo was forced to face the middle of the order in a scoring situation. And even though Pujols himself proved to be the last official batter of the inning, two more runners crossed the plate before the third out was made. Just a walk on the scorecard, and it seemed like such a small thing at the time, but it shifted the balance to the Cardinals' side, and they took advantage. The run Rasmus scored on he and Albert's running gambit proved to be the difference in the game, in fact.

The Cards could very well clinch tonight, if they can take care of their business and the Cubs cooperate. With that in mind, I thought we might take a moment to catch our breaths before the elation and look back at how we got here.

I think there are five things which really made the most difference for the Cardinals in 2009; five things to stand for all the hundreds of little things that have made it such a rewarding summer in St. Louis. And without further rambling from your author, they are as follows:

1) Fuentes Heads For the Coast

what it was -- Remember, back in the winter of aught eight, when the Cardinals desperately tried to sign a sinister hurler by the name of Brian Fuentes to close games for them? At the time, it seemed like the most important move anyone has ever made in the history of the game to many fans, fresh off the bullpen disaster that was 2008. When the Cardinals refused to include a third year option on a deal for Fuentes and he signed with the Angels, the bitterness and angst among many was truly awe-inspiring. There was wailing and gnashing of teeth and rending of garments throughout the land -- and by the land I mean the Post-Dispatch boards and talk radio-- as the cries of cheap ownership and foolish General Managership reached a fever pitch. Those of us who believed in the Cardinals' young pitchers and those of us who believed Fuentes to be hugely overrated rallied together in an attempt to quell the uprising, but to little avail.

why it was important -- Brian Fuentes has been, to put it kindly, less than untouchable this season. Sure, he has 44 saves, but he's also blown seven, has given up a hit per inning, and is striking out four batters less per 9 than he did last season. His FIP for the year stands at 4.53, and that 2.24 he put up last year is looking more and more like the fevered dream of a madman. (Or the fevered dream of a contract year, however you like.)

More importantly, Fuentes would have cost the Cardinals at least $8.5 million this season and $9 million in 2010, stretching the payroll much tighter than it was on Opening Day. Fuentes would have been paid three times what Ryan Franklin was to do a worse job closing out games, and there quite likely wouldn't have been enough financial flexibility to make the moves the Cardinals did later in the year. So we can go back and sign Fuentes if you like, but it probably means no Holliday now. History is fun!

2) Franklin Comes Alive

what it was -- This one sort of bookends nicely with the Fuentes deal that wasn't, as the Cardinals received a very surprising performance in the closer role from Ryan Franklin. Debate all you like how good Franklin really is (and I think most of us are well aware he's nowhere near the pitcher he pitched like for quite a bit of the season), but he stepped in to the void at the back of the bullpen and locked it down for a good period of time.

why it was important -- Well, first off, it kept the Cardinals from losing a bunch of games through late-inning collapses, which is primarily what kept them from going to the playoffs last year. Second, on Opening Day, when Jason Motte got the first crack at closing out a game and blew it so magnificently, my father and I looked at each other (I was watching the game at his house), and said, "Here we go again." If Franklin doesn't step in and stabilise the bullpen, I think it's entirely possible Johnny Mo and Co. go into panic mode and make an ill-advised deal to try and bring in an established closer. And honestly, after witnessing the troubles of 2008, it would have been tough to blame them, but the end result could have been disastrous. Thankfully, Franky did the job, and no knee-jerk moves were needed.

3) Stuck in the Middle With Schu -- and Boog

what it was -- It's a little weird now to look back, but at the beginning of the season, the Cardinals' middle infield was desperately unsettled. Skip Schumaker was making a nearly unprecedented transition from the outfield to second base, and Khalil Greene was starting at shortstop. Most of us, myself most definitely included, thought bringing in Khalil was an excellent gamble, but it was still a gamble nonetheless. Unfortunately, K-Bot has gone all William H. Macy in The Cooler on us, leaving the shortstop position wide open. Five months later, Schumaker is a perfectly adequate player at second and Brendan Ryan has taken the shortstop position by force, turning into one of the best defensive shortstops in the league.

why it was important -- Honestly, can you imagine where we would be without Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan? If Schumaker can't pick grounders at even a Dan Uggla sort of level, we likely see Joe Thurston in the lineup every single day. And sure, Thurston's numbers put him in the "much too hated" category, but just think of the sheer number of extra outs the Cards would have made on the basepaths. It boggles the mind.

As for Ryan, you simply can't say enough about what he's meant to this team. If he doesn't take the steps forward he has this season, a) the pitchers all probably have about half a run tacked on to their ERAs, and b) we likely see either a crippled and damaged Khalil Greene trying to play in blood-soaked long sleeves all summer, or Tyler Greene swinging at pickoff throws. Thankfully, both Ryan and Schumaker have done pretty remarkable jobs this year of solidifying the middle infield, keeping us from the horrors that could easily have been.

4) A Carpenter and a Pinata

what it was -- Following a painfully disappointing 2008 for both pitchers, in which Chris Carpenter threw only a handful of innings while trying to come back from elbow surgery and Joel Pineiro earned his El Pinata nickname, 2009 looked a tad worrisome for the Cardinal rotation. Adam Wainwright was seen as the ace, Kyle Lohse the #2, and beyond that, oy. Most thought any innings at all from Chris Carpenter would be a bonus, and we all just wanted Pineiro to go away.

Instead, both pitchers have been outstanding, with Carpenter healthy for the first time since 2006 (minus a ribcage pull, but I mean arm-wise), and El Pinata posting an FIP 1.7 runs lower than in 2008. (4.71 vs. 3.01)

why it was important -- The Cardinals aren't standing where they are today without their rotation, simple as that. Even with the additions to the offense, the Cards still struggle to consistently score runs night in night out, leaving the heavy lifting to the pitchers. Kyle Lohse has had a really awful season, due to both injury and ineffectiveness, and without the contributions of Carp and Pineiro, the rotation would have Wainwright and, um, pray for blight? I can't come up with a good rhyme there. If Carpenter only gives the Cards the ~80 innings many expected and Jo-El is the same guy he is in 2008, this team is, well, the Brewers. Minus the douchebaggery. I hope.

5) Trader Mo

what it was -- After spending his first two offseasons as the helm of the Cardinals trying to clean out the junk from the end of Walt Jocketty's tenure here, Mozeliak had essentially gained himself two reputations. Among those of us who follow baseball very closely and are interested in breaking things down from multiple angles, Mr. Mo was seen as a Hippocratic sort of General Manager, i.e. first, do no harm. He wasn't really doing a lot of good, no, but then again, he also wasn't locking the Cardinals into crippling deals and going all March to the Sea on the farm system, so we were relatively pleased. To the casual fan, though, or even the serious fan less interested in the long-term view, who just wanted to see a winning team, Mozeliak was a do-nothing puppet, the man charged by Bill DeWallet to sit on his hands and save money so they could sell off the team in a couple years. Put simply, they weren't overly fond of Mr. Mo. What was worse, even those of us who thought he was doing a solid job trying to reset the organisation were beginning to get a little antsy.

Fast forward a bit, and the team the Cardinals take into the postseason in 2009 looks very little like the team which took the field on Opening Day, and even less like the team they ended the season with a year ago. Matt Holliday, of course, is the big acquisition, but manning up and going against the field staff to trade Chris Duncan for Julio Lugo may actually be the best move Mozeliak made all year. Bringing in John Smoltz was just gravy. There are, of course, some dark spots, as Mark DeRosa's production likely could have been replicated by an internal candidate, Khalil Greene has had a truly lost season, and in almost all of his trades Mozeliak has seemingly overpaid somewhat.

why it was important -- Simply put, the Cardinals were good enough to win the division or the wild card as constructed at the beginning of the season, but just barely. If everything went right, they were probably an 86-88 win team. If they did squeak into the playoffs, you would have to have expected an early bouncing.

Now, though, the Cardinals could very well be seen as the favourites to win the National League pennant. Personally, I'm still terrified of the Phillies,but not because I think Philadelphia is actually a better baseball team. They just seem to have the Cards' number the past couple years. Regardless, it would surprise no one now to see the Cardinals facing off with whatever AL team makes it through to the World Series at the end of October, and I don't think you can say that before Mozeliak made the improvements to the roster.

Additionally, while I'm not ordinarily a big believer in clubhouse chemistry and other such things, I do think the fact the organisation was obviously trying to obtain help for this team had a positive effect on their play. How many extra wins does that translate to? I have no idea, and wouldn't even hazard a guess. But beyond just how much better the new acquisitions made the team, the players themselves were very appreciative of the improvements made. And yes, winning builds chemistry better than chemistry builds winnings, but it isn't fair to simply dismiss the boost the players got when they saw the cavalry coming over the hill.

It's been a wonderful season, and I'm hoping we have something to celebrate tonight. And yes, I am in full-on jinx mode right now, but I don't care. I'm so excited, and I find myself unable to hide it. Or something like that.

The Baron' Playlist for the 23rd of September, 2009

"Forever Young" -- Alphaville

"The Universal" -- Blur

"Train Song" -- Vashti Bunyan

"All Summer Long" -- The Beach Boys

At least it wasn't the NLDS

DanUpBaby — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 06:59:13 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

I'm not saying that either one of us ([Chris Carpenter and the towel]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."

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Let's pull that Ryan Franklin quote again—

I'm not saying that either one of us ([the Cardinals and their fans]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."

Yeah, that sounds about right.

This mini-crisis is a great time to considerwhere we are now as to where we were back in April—now that the Cardinals are not completely invincible it's worth thinking about. The bullpen, for instance:

Where we were then: I couldn't find a quote quite representative enough, so if I may channel myself, circa March—

I love this bullpen. Love love love love. There are about a million players in it, and they're all young and cheap, and maybe we should trade Ryan Franklin for a season ticket package or just put him on a bus somewhere with all the other old people so that I can watch all these cost-controlled, thoroughbred right-handers compete for the closer's role. These guys are so crazy and awesome that they flip out ALL the time.

Where we are now:

I'm not saying that either one of us ([the Cardinals relief pitchers, opposing batters]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."

The Cardinals' vaunted relief Whiz Kids have seen attrition from both sides; on one, Jason Motte struggles with throwing the ball past opposing hitters and Kyle McClellan has trouble throwing it near them, and on the other several pitchers are throwing the ball for other teams.

Taken in isolation I can't really argue with either of the major deals that siphoned off relief depth; Mark Worrell and (erstwhile throw-in) Luke Gregerson was a small price to pay for what seemed like an upgrade at shortstop, and Chris Perez and Jess Todd was the going rate for a guy who, for a brief time, seemed like he would upgrade multiple positions at once.

But I don't think either of these trades can be seen as a win for Mozeliak, or even as an extenuating-circumstances draw; these are flat-out misses. In the Khalil Greene deal—my favorite of the two moves, even now, for its ingenuity—Mozeliak bet some of his bullpen strength on a cheap way to upgrade for this year. In that way it resembles a deadline deal, only with a full year of that deadline-deal magic (you know, Al, it really does); there's no potential future benefit to hedge against the flags flying forever. I'd argue that it was a gamble the Cardinals were justified in making, but so far they've gambled wrong on both sides; Khalil Greene hasn't turned into Khalil Greene, and Luke Gregerson—78 K in 65 innings, a .434 OPS against righties—has turned into Russ Springer.

The DeRosa deal has to be looked at in its very fleeting context—after the Greene deal and the Motte/McClellan problems were noticeable, before the Holliday and Lugo deals rendered his positional versatility basically useless. That they cancel each other out seems only fitting for a deal that's a complex win or a complex loss.

The Greene deal meant that the Cardinals could no longer trade from the bottom of their relief deck; the fungible relievers weren't quite so fungible anymore. But their subsequent dealings might be more damaging to the DeRosa rationale; as a straight replacement at third base DeRosa, especially the one they got, was a major offensive improvement but not a worldbeater. During his time with the Cardinals he's been worth a little less than a win over Thurston's year-to-date offensive levels. (Defense—charitably—has been a wash.) That's a good upgrade, as far as deadline deals go, but it's not the one they paid for.

The upgrade they paid for was three-headed—they could put him at third against right handers and pair him with Khalil Greene to spell Skip Schumaker or the Duncan/Ankiel Platoon of Despair that was stuck in left field. Then they traded for Julio Lugo to spell Skip Schumaker; they they traded for Matt Holliday to replace the P.O.D. Then he was the starting third baseman. I appreciate not having to watch Joe Thurston every day, but Chris Perez has proven what we really knew anyway—he's the best of the Cardinals young relievers, and he was traded at a moment when the Cardinals realized they needed them more than they'd thought.

Now the Cardinals have to worry about Ryan Franklin, who is not, it can be said, at this point, finding some new talent level. Over the course of his last two seasons as a Cardinal he's proven himself to be a Pretty Good reliever. Unless some new information comes to light in the next two weeks, that's probably what he's going to be. It's tough having him as your top right-hander, but that's different from having to worry about him if you carry a lead into the ninth inning—most relievers will save most games most of the time. He's not going to go oh-fer a series. The problem is getting the lead to him with the pitchers that are left.

But if you're worried that Franklin might be totally cooked now, your real concern ought to be the rotation—it's Franklin writ large, but with much better players. Certainly Wainwright might really be this good; certainly Carpenter was once this good and this healthy; certainly Joel Pineiro, uh, has had a fine season. But all at once? That's how World Series teams are made, to be honest—lots of players peaking at once, some who you never thought had it in them. But it's only clear that those players kept it together long enough to see their Norm Cash years through in hindsight.

Tonight, of course, Todd Wellemeyer—the stopper—makes it clear that there's no need to worry.

A Motte Proposal

DanUpBaby — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 05:30:09 -0000

Troy Glaus takes a swing in anger. (photo courtesy momup)

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I missed most of yesterday's game, for a variety of reasons, and when I left the Cardinals had their narrow lead. So I was happy to learn, when I finally checked the box score, that it wasn't the bullpen that messed things up (and happier still to learn that it wasn't altogether Smoltz's fault, either.)

Lugo's infield mishaps reminded me we hadn't, to this point, seen much of his infamous defensive inadequacy. It's yet another signal that I do not have a future as a baseball scout; given his range numbers in Boston, which were earth-shatteringly, biblically terrible—he was slow to his left (-10 outs), he was slow to his right (-8), but he was somehow also bad straight on (-1)—I would not have been at all surprised to see him play shortstop from the dugout, or just stand in place with his glove out. But since he's been here I just haven't seen it; he's seemed, at worst, average, of the bad-instincts/good-speed variety. (In my defense UZR and +/- both see him as basically average in his limited time at second base; I don't know how it's happened, but that's what's happened. Presumably it is the inherent superiority of AL ground balls at work.)

Given the continued struggles of McClellan, and Hawksworth's reluctance to excite too much, It's been nice to see Jason Motte string together a few good outings. Here's an arbitrary endpoint for you: on August 14 he pitched his second lowest-leveraged game of the year, the ninth inning of a 9-2 win against San Diego. How low leverage was it?

It was so low leveraged that Khalil Greene, Brendan Ryan, Julio Lugo, Mark DeRosa, and Joe Thurston were all playing at the same time! He didn't do very well; Chase Headley hit a long double, Kevin Kouzmanoff hit a long home run, and Motte walked off the field with an ERA of 6.05. The summer could basically be written off—from June 5, when his ERA hit its season low, to that night opponents had hit .354/.433/.756, and swung and missed just eight percent of the time. It was like everyone he pitched to became... Albert Pujols.

Since then he's allowed just one run in those seven innings. Only one of those outings was in a well-leveraged situation, but a few more solid outings will win him confidence almost by default; right now there's just nobody else out there doing any better than he is. It would be interesting to see Jason Motte end up the final winner in the setup man sweepstakes, since he's lost so much, but it wouldn't be out of the question, either—this time last year, you'll remember, he was striking out nearly twice this many batters in Memphis. The PCL is a minor league, but it's not that minor.

While we're on the subject—I have to say that I've found no reason yet to lay Motte's struggles at the feet of Dave Duncan, any more than I would have given Dunc credit for his success; he's simply not a normal pitcher. And certainly there's no visible traces of Duncan's usual meddling on his pitching style. On that bad day in August Motte averaged 96 on his fastball, peaked at 98, and was all over the plate.

It was the prototypical 2009 Motte night, right up to the one swinging strike he managed in his nineteen fastballs; after getting swings and misses on an extreme 25% of his strikes in his 2008 call-up he's pegged the league average (15%) in his second go-around. In fireballer terms, that's the difference between Joel Zumaya 2006 (22%) and 2007 (13%); Rob Dibble 1992 (33%) and 1995 (18%). This is all to say that if your game plan is to go out there and throw it by people, it helps to be able to throw it by people; as of now the intent may be different, but the result is closer to Ryan Franklin (12%) than it is Nolan Ryan.

As for his much-maligned off-speed pitches, which seem to change as much and as often as Yadier Molina's old batting stance, they're apparently of his own invention—

The righthander has been working on expanding his repertoire. He said recently that he's trying to refine his changeup and mix in a slider and cut fastball to go with his fastball, which has been known to top out at 97 mph consistently. Motte said by adopting a two-seam fastball he's willing to give a little on his velocity to gain some on the movement.

The two-seamer is being caught by PitchF/X—it's easy to make the distinction when the four seamer is arrow-straight and a hundred miles an hour—but in his most recent outing he threw exactly one, to 23 four seamers (again averaging 96 mph.) The cutter's harder to pick out, given the inconsistency of his slider, and something else—a curveball or a splitter or a changeup—has started bouncing over the plate at irregular intervals in the last month.

The picture pieced together from all these indiscriminate breaking balls and the weird interviews he's given about them is an odd one for me, as a longtime Cardinals watcher, to consider: here, it seems, we have a pitcher who is not being given enough direction.

Whether Motte's fastball is going to prove this hittable long term is important for the Cardinals down the road, and I'm still optimistic about it; it might be that 2008 was simply his peak, but if nothing else his home run rate will come down from here. But right now the throwers-keep-throwing mentality is causing all the contact of Dave Duncan's best laid plans with none of the supposed benefits. I don't know if Duncan (or Marty Mason) is in charge of Motte's relentless experimentation, but he ought to be.

Talent in, talent out

DanUpBaby — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 10:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Matt Sayles - AP

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Charlie Haeger simply does not know how to hold a baseball. (AP Photo/Matt Sayles)

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Shelby Miller! I have it on good faith that he throws 120 miles per hour... to contact. That he has a 2:1 groundballs-batters faced ratio. That he is, depending on how ready you were to jump on the Anthony Reyes, Future Ace bandwagon following his crazy 8 K:BB stint in AA, the best-regarded pitching prospect in the system since Rick Ankiel, despite having yet to play a baseball game for money.

Last time the Cardinals became associated with trading prospects for veterans it wasn't—in most cases—the prospects themselves that killed them; it was that the those great 2000-2005 squads kicked off the dynasy by drafting future superstars like Shaun Boyd, Chance Caple, Justin Pope, and nobody in back-to-back-to-back-to-back first rounds. (That 2002 draft, in which the Cardinals gave up draft picks for signing Izzy and Tino Martinez, is particularly devastating; their first two picks retired in the Midwest League, momentary prospects like Travis Hanson lost their way before their first cup of coffee, and only Kyle McClellan and Brad Thompson have spent any time in the majors.)

So while trading the top prospect for retail-priced help is a bad habit to get into, it was exacerbated in the Jimmy Journell era by poor drafting. But this year the Cardinals have shown a desire to bring talent in and they ship it out.

TALENT OUT

1. Colby Rasmus. It's always good news when the biggest blow to your prospect list establishes himself, immediately, as a useful Major League baseball player. (On your team, that is.) Certainly his long-term profile—maybe even his short term profile—is much different from the fringe-average centerfield bat he's shown to this point, but his defense has been all-world enough, in its almost blandly graceful way, to make him a championship-quality player in year one.

But the loss of Rasmus left the Faberge Squad, as 2009 began, without the guy who'd single-handedly filled the Future Star quadrant since 2005. Even #2 on this list wasn't quite there—he was a guy, in Baseball America parlance, who would Hit No Matter What. With Rasmus, there was rarely any need for qualification.

2. Brett Wallace. Are you like me? Are you still following Brett Wallace's nightly exploits as though they were still over-the-fold Future Redbirds material? (It helps that, for the last few days, they have been—his .467 stint against Memphis has to have allayed some Athletics concerns about his lack of high-minors power.)

Just about to turn 23 and already in AAA, Wallace wasn't a Rasmus-style perennial on prospect lists, but his was the rare high-OBP fat-guy bat that received universal scout plaudits; it was so impressive a tool that his serious problems weren't enough to mar his premium-prospect tag. Losing Rasmus at the same time is part of what made the Holliday deal so tough to stomach; in his large-hipped vacuum the Cardinals were left with a toolsy outfielder with uncertain power projection and an international signing who's four months younger than Miley Cyrus.

The Cardinals traded a few Wallace types in their JockettyBall era. Daric Barton, the first Official Prospect Crush of Get Up, Baby! after his age-18 Ted Williams impression in the Midwest League, was further from the minors than Wallace, and not so loved by scouts, but he had just hit .313/.445/.513 with 69 walks against 44 strikeouts in a league full of college pitchers and known to suppress offense. He was also playing catcher.

Barton, selected the year after that disastrous 2002 draft, is kind of a Brett Wallace cautionary tale. While he was lighting up my pre-FR life, the Cardinals were racking up their equally disastrous 2004 draft, focused intentionally on affordability and implicitly on players with less upside than Daric Barton, or Brian Barden. Barton was the impact player, like Wallace, but he was also in a system that proved even thinner than this one.

3. Clay Mortensen. In my day, why, we called this guy Chris Narveson, and we were happy to have him, you know? None of this interchangeable back-of-the-rotation starter talk around our hot stove, and you know why? Because talking uses up the oxygen we'd saved up for that little fire.

4. Every right-handed reliever the Cardinals had. The organizational guys—Luke Gregerson, Mark Worrell, Luis Perdomo—were acceptable losses. If they're major prospects your system has greater and more pressing needs; although they'd certainly be useful now, it wasn't a matter of Mortgaging Our Future so much as reorganizing the team's value (a little more than was, in hindsight, advisable) in the present.

Jess Todd (and recent Talent Out graduate Chris Perez) are better bets in the future, and a little more difficult to let go; the Cardinals gave up real value in the future for the chance to replace Joe Thurston in the present. Jason Motte also made his last leap off prospect lists in 2009, and it's not been nearly as pleasant as Rasmus's. In all the Cardinals lost the makings of a great, cheap bullpen this year—some of it was traded, some of it just evaporated. That's not the most glamorous part of a prospect list, but it's tough to lose it.

5. Tyler Herron. What was the deal with that? He's in the Pirates system now, in case you hadn't heard, doing basically the same thing he was doing in Springfield, although apparently less uncoachably. Herron was part of the first salvo of attempted pitching depth, which didn't quite go as anticipated—from that run of supplemental picks and early rounders immediately following Rasmus and Tyler Greene, Mark McCormick has disappeared off the face of the earth; Herron is in Altoona; high schooler Josh Wilson has retired in each of the last two seasons; and closer-turned-hittable-starter-turned-hittable-closer Nick Webber is out of the system.

They did better later on, thankfully, or else the Herron move would make even less sense than it does as is.

TALENT IN

1. Shelby Miller and Wagner Mateo! We haven't seen stat one on these guys yet, and I don't know anything I wouldn't be regurgitating third-hand, so I've lumped them together—but this is exactly what the Cardinals didn't have to fall back on after trading Barton or Adam Kennedy or H...H... I had another name, I thought, but Google isn't any help at all.

When the Cardinals traded for Mark Mulder they were basically without a farm system, top and bottom, and there was no real reason to believe that worried them. There was no lasting commitment to young players; they just happened to have a few of them, and then they didn't. This year the rights to two players, one of whom won't be a Major League factor for at least five years, were already in hand by the time the Cardinals' top prospect was gone. Beneath them there's depth, the pretty good-but (no fastball / fringe glove / no pop / Tommy John) guys that would have topped a prospect list in the three terrifying months between the start of the 2005 season and Colby Rasmus.

It's a great time to be a Cardinals fan, but even if your first stop after a hard day's work is the GCL box scores (Joe Mather and Mike Parisi played tonight!) the minor leagues are no longer bereft of stories. With the second round pick the Cardinals could have taken another college pitcher; instead they selected ex-superprospect Robert Stock, who could have just ended up another college pitcher anyway but is now putting up a .951 OPS as a defensively adept catcher.

It's not just the players who've flooded the system; it's an increased confidence that the people in charge of the system both know what they're doing and are interested in doing it. They might trade some prospects, but that's not the only reason they'd like to have some.

The October Team

DanUpBaby — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 06:17:11 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

St. Louis Cardinals' Harold Ramis, right, celebrates with teammate Brendan Ryan after hitting a walk-off home run in the ninth inning against the San Diego Padres in a baseball game, Sunday, Aug. 16, 2009 in St. Louis. The Cardinals come from behind to beat the Padres 7-5. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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Good to see He Who Shall Not Be Named Correctly hitting the baseball hard, walk-off or no walk-off. (But walk-off, if I have a choice.) Now that he's begun to hit again—.346/.393/.500 in his last seven games—we can try out the new narrative: he didn't hit anything for a while, then he began to pull the ball, in the accepted Smooth Home Run fashion, for a week or so, to no effect. It's too easy to attribute the lack of lift on his fly balls to his much-reported weight loss, because it is basically attribution by connecting the only two things we know about him... which is to say that my head said no, but my Scout's Gut said yes. And now, having begun the slow march back to playing weight, voila: his good swings become enough to make even Jay Randolph alert and excited.

It's so easy, which is why it probably doesn't mean anything. But there you are.

Anyway, Rasmus's bizarre splits, which almost explicitly defy foolhardy bloggers to see a pattern—two bad months to start the season that are almost identically valuable but do it in completely different ways, one great month with no walks, and now a July that follows the May pattern (low OBP/high power) and an August that follows April (high OBP/no power)—got me thinking about one of the best arguments put forth during the Tigers-in-Three moment of 2006: the team that won 83 games in the regular season was not the one that won 11 in October.

The team that, GOB willing, gets to the NLDS this October will—more obviously this time—not be the one that went 25-31 in May and June. But what does that mean?

THE GOOD

1. Matt Holliday >> Chrick Dunkiel

This, of course, is the big one: Matt Holliday replaces two guys who, luckily for this baseball writer, have sucked almost identically hard over the course of the season. What's he do in a short series that the Platoon of Despond wouldn't? For one thing, he gets them there; his extraordinary performance over the first 20 games of this deal has been worth an incredible 1.5 wins over a replacement player. One example of a replacement player is... Rick Ankiel, whose performance to this point in the season has put him exactly at 0.0.

Even in a brief series, and even accounting for Holliday's inevitable descent from Mount Olympus, that kind of boost is difficult to overestimate. Ankiel's MLVr—the fraction of a run, per game, that a team would gain from plugging him into a lineup of average hitters—is -.118. Holliday's number last season (with the Cardinals this year it's 1.1) was .320.

That's the difference between, say, Albert Pujols and, uh, Matt Holliday. If a series were to go seven games that difference would be theoretically worth three runs. Losing Brett Wallace is going to hurt, and it's going to hurt for quite a while. But the difference between the absurdity that was the off-season Matt Holliday discussion and the trade that actually happened last month is that Rick Ankiel's collapse has made what would have been worth less than a run per playoff series into something that could influence the outcome of the postseason.

2. The Infield Shuffle >> The Old Infield Shuffle

Over the first two months of the season it would be charitable to say that Skip Schumaker played second base badly—if the resounding agreement of UZR and Dewan's fielding runs was any indication, he played second base like no one who has been allowed to play second every day has done in the last five years. He played it like an outfielder, and not a good outfielder—Tris Speaker, the Gray Eagle, was said to play center field from just behind second base, so close that he was a factor on double play balls. Skip Schumaker just stood behind second base.

Around June, Joe Thurston found himself in a similar situation. After his surprise April, and his surprisingly decent May, he became the de facto starter and found himself hitting like Skip Schumaker played second base. He managed four extra base hits in two months of full-time starts, during which he hit .220. His OPS hung around .570 (but it's OBP heavy!)

As if that weren't enough, the Cardinals, through May, had committed themselves pretty thoroughly to Khalil Greene, who had seemed like a pretty thrifty upgrade in March. I don't know if you've heard about this, but he struggled with anxiety problems, and also the bat, hitting .171/.213/.220 in May before leaving the team. The My Name is Brendan, this is My Brother Greene, and This is My Other Brother Greene platoon split starts at the position for a few weeks until both Greenes fell out of the picture, and everyone realized suddenly that Brendan Ryan had used his time in Memphis to become Ozzie Smith.

Unfortunately, he's not an era-adjusted Ozzie Smith—shortstops can hit now, due to a 1992 Supreme Court decision on the subject (People v. Ordoñez), so .284/.324/.377 is not quite so impressive as it was in 1989. But the combination makes him an above average player, the likes of which the Cardinals thought they'd signed up for when they traded two bottom cards off their Inexhaustible Supply of righty relievers.

Meanwhile, at second base, Schumaker's UZR/150 began its slow ascent from the Mariano Duncan Trench. In April and May it hovered around -30; in June, -19; now, as of the most recent Fangraphs update, it's -11. All the while his raw UZR has stuck between -8 and -9. I don't know if this makes him average, but even mediocre is a major improvement. The trade for Julio Lugo, and the return of Khalil Greene, also means that he never has to face a left-handed pitcher again.

Finally, at third base, the Cardinals replaced Joe Thurston with Mark DeRosa, who managed to avoid Cardinals infamy by not missing the second half of the season with a wrist injury. The Lugo and Holliday acquisitions mean that DeRosa's versatility (he was originally cast as a solution in the outfield, too) no longer makes him uniquely suited for the Cardinals, and his fielding at third is erratic as advertised, but the combined acquisitions have meant that Thurston's done little but replace Schumaker at second base, something his above average glove there warrants.

This total recasting of the infield is Mozeliak's secret coup of the year; he came into June with a catastrophic loss of third base depth and a bizarre experiment at second. In two moves he managed to fill third base, provide some insurance at short, and hedge against Schumaker's poor defense and complete inability to hit left-handed pitchers. That makes a huge difference now, and it will in Hypothetical October, too.

3. Fifth Starter Question Mark

Yes: a question mark for the fifth starter is good news. Todd Wellemeyer has spent most of the season being an emphatic exclamation point. Q: Will the Cardinals starter give up as many runs as innings pitched? A: Wellemeyer!

But his eclipse means a few things. For one thing, the Cardinals might get better-than-replacement-level performance out of his replacements down the stretch, which could make a difference in the still-tight standings. For another, having no set fifth starter means that La Russa won't be tempted to tinker with what are obviously the best four pitchers in his playoff rotation.

THE QUESTIONS

1. The right-handers

Watching Jason Motte pitch has become a terrifying proposition to me. It's not that I don't have faith in him, though I don't, at this point—it's that I'm sure there's still an excellent reliever lost somewhere in his career, and with every stomping mop-up outing I'm watching him on eggshells, hoping that he shows that 2008 form for one inning at a time.

His bad mop-up inning and his excellent partial inning over the weekend did a little rationalizing of his days-of-rest splits, which have, to this point, been held up as a beacon of hope. Unfortunately, when each is moving, even in a different direction, toward 6.00, that's not a good thing; after those mediating innings he's at 11.42 with no rest and 4.55 with. He's been bad on no days rest, not very good with it; he's sucked in a box, and with a fox, etc. etc.

But if it were just Motte struggling, the Cardinals would be in fine shape. But over the course of the season they've traded Chris Perez and Jess Todd and found out that Kyle McClellan has a serious control problem, one he simply does not strike out enough batters to overcome. If Ryan Franklin were to begin sucking (that is, more than he does now) any start that does not go past six innings will become Chinese-curse interesting in a hurry.

With Smoltz and Eduardo Sanchez both in the dismissive-response stage of the Elusive Mozeliak Answers continuum, the only hope for the right-handers is that Blake Hawksworth continues to pitch well—so far, so good—or that Jason Motte starts to. After all the activity it's a little difficult to watch a question be answered so passively, but the Cardinals are fresh out of excess faberge.

2. Kyle Lohse

I don't know what's wrong with Kyle Lohse, and westcoastbirdwatcher being banned and all I can only speculate, but since his lost June he's been occasionally effective but noticeably dull, in the opposite-of-sharp sense; his command is gone, his fastball is lost, and after his told-you-so April has come a told-you-so May, July, and August, as his season-making walk rate from 2008 has fallen almost perfectly to his career numbers.

Even if he continues to struggle, or just continues to be Kyle Lohse, this isn't a season-ender. In the playoffs, the Cardinals need either Pineiro or Lohse to look like a third starter. Joel appears to have that covered.

Unrelated, underreported note: those of you who join me in checking Gulf Coast League scores every so often will have noticed that one Joe Mather doubled in Quicksilver Jr. in their afternoon beatdown at the hands of the GCL Astros.

The GCL is just barely a minor league; nobody cares about the score, nobody watches the game, and were it not for the other group of differently-affiliated teenagers at the other end of the field there would be no stats kept at all. But it's good to see Mighty Joe/Joey Bombs/Bizarro Duncan taking some swings on his way back to earning those nicknames. This is step one to making the roster in 2010, though probably not as a third baseman.

Where They're At: Your Second-Half-of-2009 Cardinals

DanUpBaby — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 11:15:22 -0000

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St. Louis Cardinals' Matt Holliday has always been a member of the St. Louis Cardinals. In this conceit Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.

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Things seem to have reset over the weekend: the Cardinals traded for Julio Lugo and Matt Holliday, did well just long enough to begin a new ugly losing streak, and now sit in what I will charitably describe as a near-tie in the NL Central. Todd Wellemeyer's status, while still nebulous, seems less assured than it did in his last several bad starts.

So let's assume this homecoming is a clean slate, the Cardinals having spotted the Chicago a half game out of the goodness of their heart. The prospects are gone; the new guys are no longer new. That conceit in mind, where are we now?

STARTING PITCHING

That has to be it for Wellemeyer, it has to be. The team can't take any more of it, La Russa can't afford to continue along this particular line, and Wellemeyer simply doesn't deserve the abuse that each successive pitch is going to bring him in a Cardinals uniform. I was hoping to see him build on his first start of July—you know the one, where he didn't give up a run an inning—but he's had an ERA of at least 9.00 in five starts of his last six, a game score below 50 in eight starts out of ten. Do you remember when he was pitching well, last year? I honestly have trouble conjuring that pitcher up in my mind right now. I'm sure he does, too.

There were two stretches; he began the year resembling the pitcher he'd shown himself to be in his brief 2007 tryout, a guy who Just Won by making sure, I guess, to start on the days when the Cardinals were going to score more than the four runs he allowed in his sloppy five innings. But after the first month of the season his ERA was still around four, solidly in Jeff Suppan territory, and after a hot May he looked like this:

GS	IP	H	ER	SO	BB	HR	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
13	80.0	65	25	62	25	8	2.92	7.0	2.8	0.9	3.89

There's certainly some ball-in-play luck here, but as Duncan Reclamation Projects go this is a shining moment in the Woody Williams echelon. But my endpoint is less arbitrary than usual—after this stretch his elbow took the first step in that most dreaded of St. Louis sequences: it started barking. He came back early, got shelled (eight runs in three innings), and then didn't pitch again until a scoreless five innings at the end of June. For the rest of the season he did this:

GS	IP	H	ER	SO	BB	HR	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
18	108.1	105	45	69	34	14	3.74	5.7	2.8	1.2	4.55

For what it's worth, the strikeouts and home runs in this stretch—where he was pitching, if nothing else, like a solid fifth starter, a typical Duncan stop-gap—are the same as they are in 2009, up to today's start. I've spoken a few times about Wellemeyer's tendency to frame his performances in terms of perceived velocity, something he does more often and more specifically than any pitcher I've ever watched before. Some days he'll say he was topping out in the mid-nineties (he usually isn't, but like network TV radar guns a certain adjustment needs to be made) and that's just his way of saying he felt good, things felt easy. Other days he'll say it's not there.

I wonder if the halcyon velocity days he refers back to, as either something he's on his way toward or something he can't quite reach, are those first thirteen starts. That kind of command, that kind of control—it's second starter material, and he did it free and easy, throwing fastball/slider like he was an overpowering high school pitcher. But last season, even after his dead arm, he was able to find a way to hit the strike zone, and in the right places. I've only seen that once this season; every other start he's either nibbled, been certain he was about to get crushed, or thrown it in the strikezone with complete abandon, and gotten crushed.

I don't know what the problem is—maybe the elbow's worse, maybe the head is. But he can't figure that out in a major league rotation, at least not this one.

INFIELD

Albert Pujols: Pass. He's slumping right now, but if it's symptomatic of anything worse than a slump there's no point in me writing the rest of this entry. And I'd like to think that the next fifteen hundred words (sorry!) have not died in vain.

Second base: Have I mentioned, before, how much I dislike Skip Schumaker appearing in games against a left-handed starter? If the Julio Lugo trade accomplishes one thing, it assures that the poor-fielding second baseman who starts against the J.A. Happs and Johan Santanas of the world alike will at least have the platoon advantage.

The Cardinals face a left-handed pitcher about eight times a month, or at least they have up to this point; if Schumaker maintains his .547 OPS against lefties, and Julio Lugo continues to slug 1.000, I predict that the Cardinals will win an extra sixteen games in August and September. But we'll see how the sample sizes hold up.

I'm just kidding-but-seriously—the makeover the Cardinals have performed on the left-of-Albert side of the infield is nothing short of miraculous. Prior to DeRosa not missing the season with a wrist problem, like a deadline deal only you don't even have to make it at the deadline, the Cardinals had three assets spread out over four positions: Albert Pujols at first, Ryan's slumping bat and hot glove at short, and Schumaker against right-handed pitching. Here's the Thurston/Greene/Greene/Barden post-mortem:

	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	VORP	MLVr
Thurston	89	268	230	53	15	4	1	.230	.328	.343	-6.1	-0.7	-.096
K. Greene	47	151	130	26	5	0	5	.200	.282	.354	-6.0	-1.7	-.181
Barden	51	114	103	24	3	0	4	.233	.286	.379	-4.0	-0.7	-.122
T. Greene	41	112	105	23	5	0	2	.219	.261	.324	-7.1	-2.2	-.244

I brought the Baseball Prospectus stats not because I am nostalgic for the pre-Fangraphs world—although, seriously, how useful would these BP stats be if their website weren't designed and hosted in some wormhole that connects 1998 to 2009?—but because they're uniquely informative when players are being replaced. VORP shows what you expected: these guys are, when it comes to replacement level, the rule that proves the rule. Khalil aside, the Cardinals dredged these guys out of the minor leagues, and they played exactly as well as the last ten years of baseball thought have suggested they would. No diamonds, lots of rough.

MLVr, one of my favorite stats lost behind Prospectus's bad technology de facto firewall—this table took me twenty minutes to make—is especially fun here. It attempts to measure the runs per game the player in question would add to an average team. El Hombre leads the league with .626, which sounds about right. Before today's action Julio Lugo's, with the Cardinals, was 2.44, which also sounds about right.

We're not allowed those runs back, which is too bad—that would definitely sweeten the pot on these rentals. But in two moves the Cardinals have plugged the leaky spots in the lineup, and even assuming that DeRosa (.056) will replace Thurston alone in the lineup is worth ten runs on offense over the last sixty games.

Lugo (-.05) replacing Schumaker vs. lefties (a charitable MLVr for that character would be -.250), meanwhile, is worth another three runs, assuming Skip would only play half the time anyway. And that's on top of the most valuable service he renders: keeping the replacement replacements, Barden and company, off the roster.

BULLPEN

It looks like I've been vindicated backwards again—I was mad about the Haren/Barton/Calero trade because I had the mother of all prospect crushes on Daric Barton, and when I posted my I-have-reservations-about-DeRosa news break it was without knowing that there was a PTBNL, let alone that it would be Jess Todd, the last scrap of bullpen depth floating around Memphis. Had I been alive I probably would have thought the Sam Bowie draft choice ridiculous because Sam Perkins was still on the board. (I'll be whitewashing these and other caveats from my memoirs, tentatively titled I Was Always Right, and Always for the Right Reasons.) That said, DeRosa, like Holliday, is a major improvement to this team, and we're looking at the team as it exists right now, not as it will next year.

With Wellemeyer an open question, I'm convinced that right-handed relief, where the Cardinals were stacked about fifteen deep in February, is the biggest problem on this team. I'm going to do the old Rob Neyer hidden-name trick here in Hard Mode—no ERA, either, not that it's very tough anyway. Name these right-handed relievers, and rank them in order of effectiveness:

NAME	G	IP	H	SO	BB	HR	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
Pitcher A	40	43.0	33	32	22	3	6.7	4.6	0.6	4.15
Pitcher B	45	36.1	36	31	16	7	7.7	4.0	1.7	5.32
Pitcher C	36	36.0	24	28	8	2	7.0	2.0	0.5	3.03
Pitcher D	42	42.2	48	36	22	5	7.6	4.6	1.1	4.58
Pitcher E	37	31.0	23	38	17	4	11.0	4.9	1.2	4.07

Of course you know Pitcher C, New and Improved Ryan Franklin. Back in April I suggested he was irrelevant to the Cardinals this year. I was wrong about that. And Pitcher B probably rings a bell, too. I don't know what to make of Jason Motte's first extensive time in the majors. If he had performed more or less how he's performing now except with a higher strikeout rate it would make sense—AAA hitters are bad, but they're not bad enough that they strike out literally twice as often (Sauce struck out an extraordinary 14.8 batters per nine innings last year) as MLB hitters. The massively inflated home run rate seems like penance enough for a guy whose one pitch is nevertheless Some Pitch.

The cautionary tale is Chad Harville, another stocky guy with a blistering fastball who could never get established in the majors. But Motte was better last year than Harville ever was and has shown a movement on his fastball this season that nobody could have anticipated. I think, deployed correctly, he'll be better than he has been, now and in the future—but for a set-up reliever on a contender he leaves a little certainty to be desired.

Pitcher A is the guy I'm worried about. That's Kyle McClellan, he of the 2.93 ERA. His control was plain average last year; this year it's positively bad. If you can strike batters out like Pitcher E (that's Chris Perez, who was shipped out because of his command problems) it's okay to walk four and a half batters per nine innings. If you strike out fewer batters than Ryan Franklin, it's a bad way to keep your ERA under four. That's the Cardinals' set-up man—that's why I'm worried.

Pitcher D is Jason Isringhausen, last year. It's a rough group.

As far as the minors go, pickings are slim here in July. Of the current starters-in-waiting, Mitchell Boggs, throwing 75% fastballs already, seems best suited to have a Wainwright Moment, but he also might be the best fit in the rotation. On the farm, Memphis is down to Matt Scherer, located inexplicably on the darkest corner of the 40 man roster. Scherer was the sixteenth round pick in the Chris Lambert Draft, and left half his strikeouts in the Texas League. Since coming to Memphis he's kept his ERA low by avoiding walks and, uh, having a really low rate of home runs per fly ball, which is not a great recipe for success as an MLB reliever.

Past him there's Tyler Norrick, who's struggled with control but poured on the strikeouts as a newly christened lefty specialist, and Francisco Samuel, the Really Poor Man's Chris Perez, who walks a batter an inning and would probably be no worse control-wise if he just stood on the mound in AA Springfield and threw toward St. Louis. In the low minors there's former catcher Casey Mulligan, who's got a 69:17 K:BB ratio in 46 innings between low and high A but is apparently doing it without any projectability whatsoever, and Blake King, who looks longingly at Francisco Samuel's control problems.

It's not a promising group. Out of all of them I'd almost rather the Cardinals throw Mulligan into the high minors fire and see if he has what it takes to be Brendan Donnelly for a month; he's just as likely to be Mike Sillman, but the Cardinals are running so low on options that I would not be at all surprised to see them try this guy in the middle innings.

PROSPECTS

The Cardinals system has been worse than it is right now. Wagner Mateo, Daryl Jones, and (presumably) Shelby Miller are all more interesting prospects than could be found in the later Jocketty years, where luminaries like Jim Journell, damaged goods Blake Hawksworth, and Shaun Boyd were bringing the upside. Beyond that there are some interesting guys, the Daniel Descalsos and Pete Kozmas and Robert Stocks, and what remains of the Cardinals' once-formidable crowd of future role players and fourth starters—Lance Lynn, David Kopp, Scott Gorgen, et al.

But as we've already seen, the relief corps is now more or less eagerly awaiting Joe Kelly, and the next impact bat is sixteen years old. The farm system could provide a starter, maybe Jaime Garcia, in 2010, and in 2011 Descalso and another of the Lance Lynn set might be ready to provide payroll relief. It's a system that needs to rebuild, and has some pieces with which to start doing it.

PROSPECTS

This team looks pretty good for 2009, this last series aside. The offense is watertight, with only the starting shortstop a long bet for league average, and the starters are hamstrung by one sub-replacement-level hole, which is the easiest kind to push a little dirt into. (To use this trade deadline's vocabulary, it doesn't need Roy Halladay, it needs J.A. Happ. Or P.J. Walters.) The bullpen needs some attention; Jason Motte probably won't be Pitcher B forever, but even if he recovers it's shallow from the right side. If there's one more trade to be made it's probably Troy Glaus and a pile of money for a B- prospect or a Dave Weathers type; that's the last bullet in the gun.

I think it'll be fun to watch. It's been some time since they've hit like this, and with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright fronting the rotation there'll be some impressive wins mixed in with these frustrating losses.

Chris Lambert's ghost just sent me an instant message auditioning for the five spot—that means I've been at this too long. I'm excited about this team this season. That's what I know.

Pujols Nukes Slowey

Jesse — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 22:11:38 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

5 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols watches his first home run of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning Saturday, June 27, 2009, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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That was the definition of getting Pujol'd.

John Madden used to pontificate about what would happen when the unstoppable force came into contact with the immoveable object. Well this afternoon, we saw what happens when Albert Pujols played both roles. He wasn't about to be moved by what Kevin Slowey was pitching, and I probably don't need to explain why he was unstoppable.

The weather wasn't doing favors to the pitchers. When it's as hot and humid as it was in St. Louis on Saturday afternoon, it can be hard to concentrate pitch after pitch after pitch. Both Todd Wellemeyer and Slowey would attest to this, as neither of them managed to see the fourth inning. Unfortunately, Slowey is the one who pitched longest, which meant he was on the mound in the third inning to see Pujols come around for the second time. That first bomb was on a slider right down the middle of the plate, so naturally Slowey mixed it up the second time around. It was a first pitch fastball, up in the zone, and Pujols pulled it to left for his 28th home run of the season.

Take one moment to appreciate the greatness that is the AP of the baseball world. What's it like to slug .700? Just ask him.

On the plus side, Brendan Harris managed to give the Twins a momentary glimmer of hope. Down 2-0 following Pujols' first shot, Harris blooped a bases-loaded single and with the help of a diving Chris Duncan. All three runners crossed the plate to five the visitors a brief 3-2 lead. Bobby Keppel actually pitched four innings of shutout baseball, giving the Twins offense a chance to take back the game. They never did, and in fact Keppel was the only man to reach base after the fourth inning by taking a walk in the seventh.

Josh Kinney, Trever Miller, Kyle McClellan, Dennys Reyes, Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin combined to give the Cardinals 6.2 innings of scoreless baseball. Which is fantastic, for St. Louis. But considering who some of those guys are, and how they pitched, the Twins have to be disappointed about missed opportunities.

One chance to take back the series, coming tomorrow. See you there.

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (1-for-1, .044 WPA)
#2: Brendan Harris (2-for-4, 3 RBI, .209 WPA)
#1: Bobby Keppel (4 IP, 2 H, 3 K, 3 BB, 0 R; 0-for-0, BB, .127 WPA)

Matt Holliday On His Way to St. Louis?

Matt Buggenhagen — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 17:51:32 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

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According to a report in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals are ready to pursue the A's outfielder Matt Holliday.

The Cardinals appear to be very frustrated with their outfield production (rightly so) and believe Holliday might be the answer.

Holliday, at first glance seems to be the best available bat on the market, and would be a major upgrade for the Cardinals.

As we have reported it appears the price tag will not be cheap. A's GM Billy Beane is notorious for demanding a high return value on his players. It is believed that the A's are looking for major league ready pitching, to go along with additional prospects.

The Post-Dispatch reports, "Such a package would probably include right fielder Ryan Ludwick and either reliever Jason Motte, Chris Perez or Kyle McClellan, plus a prospect."

Holliday, who is a former batting champion, is currently batting .274 with eight homers and 39 RBIs.

St. Louis certainly appears to be a good fit for Holliday, the main question is whether the package they present will be suffice for Billy Beane.

In the end I certainly think Holliday will be moved, however, look for Billy Beane to try and get several teams involved to drive up the price. I'm not saying this deal won't get done, but I wouldn't expect it to happen overnight.