SB Nation - Samuel Gervacio

Astros win the most uncomfortable 6-3 game—ever

DyingQuail — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 03:35:27 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

After being way prematurely yanked to satisfy whatever rumbling was occurring in Cecil Cooper's gut, Yorman Bazardo was removed and lost a shot at being the pitcher of record. I was looking for Bazardo's start to make me feel good about our prospects in 2010 and Yorman did little to let me sleep well tonight: 4.2IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 1K, 4BB using 95 pitches (maybe 98, there's some controversy). That's a 1.93K/9, 0.25K:BB, and a paltry 1.05K/100. Not exactly what I was hoping for.

To say that Bazardo lacked control would be an understatement. At times he flashed crisp fastballs and an excellent slider/change-up combo and others he had an inability to keep his fastball down and his breaking stuff in the zone. The one positive I can laud Bazardo with is that he managed to work his way out of jams and limit the damage. In fact, he should have been able to complete the full 5IP were it not for Kaz Matsui bobbling the ball on the exchange of botched GIDP. Coop went with Tim Byrdak who managed to continue not being effective against lefties without Coop catching on. Instead of allowing Byrdak to pitch to RHBs, who he's actually more effective against, Coop went to Samuel Gervacio who needed five pitches to collect the third out...something that would earn him the pitcher of record nod (reason #583958277134 that wins are meaningless).

Jeff Fulchino, LaTroy Hawkins, and Jose Valverde all combined to finish off the Marlins, who still collected over ten hits for the fifteenth consecutive game. Valverde, however, continued his streak of having a total inability to just go get three outs without giving an entire city a collective heart attack. With two outs, Valverde decided to walk two batters, then hit Wes Helms. After an eleven pitch battle with Chris Coghlan, Valverde recorded the K and the final out. He has got to stop doing that.

Here are the positives from the offense:

Michael Bourn did it all: bunt hit, stolen bases, advances on errors, ridiculous plays in centerfield, and he clocked a 3B. Ridiculous night.
Lance Berkman had a multi-hit night.
Humberto Quintero crushed a homerun off the Conaco porch in left center.
Carlos Lee, after looking his weight in the first inning, made two "amazing" defensive plays in the 8th and 9th innings.
Hunter Pence collected a hit and a walk, but also two SB. Between Pence and Bourn, the Astros were 4/4 on the base paths—it's a miracle.
Miguel Teajda broke out of his 0/19 streak with a 2B. He then GIDPed in his next AB.
Jason Michaels contributed a PH 2B.

via www.fangraphs.com

Marlins vs Astros coverage ; FishStripes

New Arms of the Week - August 10-16

Harry Pavlidis — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 23:23:12 -0000

Six rookies got the call and made their major league debuts this week. This will mostly be a run-down of their basic PITCHf/x numbers, but I have a few observations - despite the small samples.

rookie	pitch	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z	DEG	RPM
Cesar Carrillo	Change	11	6	5	86.2	-7	2	253	1429
Cesar Carrillo	Curve	17	7	10	80.5	7	-4	58	1419
Cesar Carrillo	Sinker	8	8	0	93.9	-8	5	237	1916
Cesar Carrillo	Fastball	26	11	15	94.5	-6	8	215	2063
Esmailin Caridad	Change	1	1	0	81.3	-7	2	252	1278
Esmailin Caridad	Sinker	24	8	16	92.8	-6	5	231	1591
Esmailin Caridad	Fastball	45	26	19	94.4	-4	8	207	1799
Esmailin Caridad	Slider	22	3	19	77.6	7	-2	76	1287
Jeff Manship	Change	5	3	2	81.5	-7	8	224	1964
Jeff Manship	Sinker	12	12	0	90.0	-10	8	231	2499
Jeff Manship	Fastball	12	4	8	90.0	-7	11	212	2620
Jeff Manship	Cutter	2	0	2	84.6	0	5	180	876
Jeff Manship	Slider	5	3	2	80.1	4	0	95	672
Justin Berg	Sinker	13	8	5	92.4	-7	4	240	1781
Justin Berg	Fastball	2	0	2	92.1	-4	5	219	1397
Justin Berg	Slider	12	8	4	83.8	0	4	174	725
Samuel Gervacio	Sinker	5	5	0	92.7	-8	-4	298	1818
Samuel Gervacio	Fastball	9	2	7	95.0	-8	3	249	1801
Samuel Gervacio	Slider	14	2	12	86.4	3	-2	78	804
Trevor Bell	Change	9	8	1	85.8	-3	3	217	856
Trevor Bell	Sinker	1	1	0	91.1	-4	5	221	1181
Trevor Bell	Fastball	47	24	23	93.7	-2	9	191	1935
Trevor Bell	Cutter	5	5	0	85.6	0	7	183	1326
Trevor Bell	Slider	13	3	10	86.2	2	2	135	643

Berg has already been demoted by the Cubs, and his debut actually came during his second cup of coffee. Continuing the Cubs them, Caridad looks like he'll stick around until the next regular comes of the DL and Carrillo will make his first major league start Tuesday when the Padres host Chicago. Carrillo also happens to be a Chicago native who as made his way back from Tommy John surgery.

Since the samples are so very limited, there isn't a whole lot to say. But here are a few notes.

Caridad has managed to get a .31 whiff rate on his fastball, which is impressive
Gervacio has shown an early ability to get grounders, while Carrillo and Caridad have not
More Carrillo - worst strike rate, whiff rate and SLGCON in the Small Sample Derby
Manship threw the most strikes (24/36)
Bell's slider may need to be revisited, some may have been splitters

Yea, that's all I got.

Astros roster begins to take shape

DyingQuail — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 00:20:07 -0000

Before game time today—which was yet another loss—the Astros whittled down their roster further. There aren't a lot of surprises in this mix, but I think the moves bear some analysis.

Here's the story; here are some block quotes:

Five were optioned to Triple-A Round Rock: infielder Drew Sutton, outfielder Yordany Ramirez, right-hander Sammy Gervacio and lefties Tyler Lumsden and Polin Trinidad.

The Astros also reassigned infielder Mark Saccomanno to Minor League camp.

Like I said, none of these moves are overly surprising. I can't say that I'm not disappointed to see Sutton optioned to Round Rock, but in the end, it's probably the best for his career path. It's also not like we won't see him called up when Kaz inevitably goes down with an injury at some point—so godspeed Drew. Ramirez is so gifted defensively, but aside from a short stint at the Padres AAA affiliate where he mashed, he hasn't done much to warrant a major league job, but maybe he'll develop into a serviceable fifth outfielder in the future.

Sending the lefties down was interesting, because it came on the heels of Hensely being slotted into the bullpen and leaving the rotation race. However, that move doesn't give us anymore lefties in the bullpen, so it'll be interesting to see how Cooper is able to play his platoon split strategy during the season. According to the article above, Trinidad will start at AAA, but it sounded like Lumsden will stay in the bull pen. Coop was impressed with Trindad and expects to see him at in the bigs sometime this season; that's not an overly bold prediction given that Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and Russ Ortiz will ostensibly be our 3/4/5 to start the season (maybe Capellan after today's effort too?).

The final stop on today's recap of where we're at is Brandon Backe and Alberto Arias. Backe is apparently no closer to starting, with no idea when to begin. There's been a lot of ink spilled about us releasing him so that we don't have to pay his $1.55 million contract, but I think that's a bad idea. Yes, he's Brandon Backe, but at least we know he can be around replacement level for us. This team is shallow on starting pitching depth, and I think $1.55 million is worth a DL slot and at least hedging our bets against our ridiculously old rotation. That brings me to Arias, whose IP this Spring Training had indicated the Astros were shoping him as a bullpen only candidate, but that status was finally confirmed, for me at least, yesterday in this article. We've talked about Arias a lot over the offseason, so this doesn't make a whole lot sense to me. Paulino doesn't look ready to be a starter; Ortiz, Hampton, and Moehler are old; Backe and Wandy are dubious for health reasons right now; and Hensley has been pushed to the bullpen. So why on Earth are we not trying to cultivate a guy who has the promise of a starter to be a starter?

Astros Farm System Question #1- How Many Express Arms Will Make it to MMP?

farm_stros — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 23:11:41 -0000

The lack of talent in the Astros system has been well-documented. However, one source of hope at least for this season is the AAA pitching corps.

Heading out of Spring Training in 2008, the Astros had basically no chance of receiving any help by calling a young arm up from their AAA affiliate, Round Rock. By season's end, call-ups Jack Cassel and Fernando Nieve combined for only one win, pitching 41 innings in 20 appearances between them.

In contrast to last year's minimal production by call-ups and the bleak picture painted by most concerning the Astros minor league system in general, there is hope for improvement in the area of young arms at the highest minor league level this Spring.

The improvement begins with Bud Norris, who spent last season in Corpus Christi. He also participated in the Arizona Fall League. His 2008 was good enough that he received a major league training camp invite and has a chance to leave Florida with the big club most likely as a reliever.

After Norris, Felipe Paulino and Fernando Nieve are next in line. Both pitchers struggled with injuries in 2008. However, if they are healthy, they could contribute to the big club.

Another arm to look for getting a few starts in 2009 is Polin Trinidad. Trinidad, a lefty, split 2008 between Salem and Corpus Christi. It will be interesting to see if he starts at Corpus or Round Rock. My guess is Corpus. If the big league rotation struggles or is injured, Trinidad could get a chance to contribute. From all I've read, he is not overpowering, but he is crafty enough to get outs.

Chris Blazek and Sammy Gervacio look to be ticketed for the Round Rock bullpen this Spring. However, the lefty and righty have high K/BB numbers and could fill in the Astros bullpen as the year progresses. This is more likely for Gervacio since he is on the 40-man roster and the Astros already have two lefties in the bullpen in Wesley Wright and Tim Byrdak, not to mention Rule 5 draftee Gilbert de La Vara.

Longshots to contribute at the top level include Brad James and Josh Muecke. James pitched in Corpus in '08 missing some time to injury. Muecke was the most reliable starter at Round Rock. However, he faded as the season wore on. I have heard him mentioned as a possible bullpen candidate, although he has been mainly a starter in the minors.

With as many as eight candidates, the traffic of pitchers on Highway 71 between Houston and Austin this baseball season looks to be more active and productive than last.

Baseball Prospectus looks at the 11 best Astro farm hands

DyingQuail — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 17:37:50 -0000

The list, by Kevin Goldstein, of Baseball Prospectus (full article here):

1. Jason Castro, C
Three-Star Prospects
2. Brian Bogusevic, CF
3. Jordan Lyles, RHP
4. Bud Norris, RHP
5. Chris Johnson, 3B
6. Ross Seaton, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
7. Samuel Gervacio, RHP
8. Drew Sutton, 2B
9. Felipe Paulino, RHP
10. Chia-Jen Lo, RHP
11. Jay Austin, CF

I'll give you a hearty paraphrase from the article of the top three, but I encourage anyone who wants to read some top notch commentary like this (not to mention their array of proprietary stats and PECOTA projections), to consider getting an early Christmas present of a BPro subscription.

1) Castro: Goldstein notes that the good news about Castro is, "he's a good hitter who has a patient approach and a quick bat, with gap power to all fields. A solid defender with a plus arm," but the bad news is, "but he needs to improve his footwork behind the plate." So not a lot of bad. After Goldstein derided Castro's drafting, at the time, it seems that Castro has erased doubts in the more sabermetrically oriented scouting community. He's wasn't given an ETA, but we were warned to hold his numbers next year at High-A in context because it's a power inflationary park.

2) Boguesevic: Goldstein was very, very praiseworthy of Boggie, "He has a quick, quiet swing, with gap power that many believe will increase based on what they saw from his Tulane days. Once a burner, he's now a slightly above-average runner who plays a solid center field with an above-average arm." I mean, that's saying a lot; Goldstein also went into a lengthy discussion of Boggie's transition and how easy seems to have been. Boggie get's an ETA of sometime in 2009 -- Michael Bourn, get busy or get out.

3) Lyles: This is the guy I was most interested in reading about, because no one really knew about him on draft day. Goldstein's "the good" was very positive, "His fastball sits at an average velocity of 89-91 mph right now, and projects for plus, and he also has some feel for a curve and a changeup. His easily repeatable mechanics make for above-average command and control." The bad, was of course that he's a high-school pitching prospect, and this is the organization that coined the phrase, "TINSTAAP" (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect). Apparently the Astros are going to throw Lyles to the wolves at Low-A next year because we're taking an organizational approach to be more aggressive with our young arms. Goldstein, with the qualifier that's really too early to tell much, that Lyles should turn out to be a mid-rotation starter in a perfect world.

Interesting notes on some of the players (this was really hard to do, Goldstein just has so much insight to offer):

On Johnson:

He has excellent instincts at third base, with above-average range, soft hands, and one of the system's better infield arms.

On Seaton:

Seaton will join Lyles at Low-A Lexington, making the Legends rotation one to watch in 2009.

On Sutton:

"He'll begin the year at Triple-A, and because of the contract situations at the big-league level, chances are good that he'll start his career as a utility player."

Goldstien's final thoughts on the state of the Astros farm system:

The Astros system is one of the worst in baseball, but the addition of Bobby Heck from Milwaukee to head the scouting department and an intriguing 2008 draft gives reason for hope. True impact help from the system, however, is going to take years.

Finally, here's a link to a great interview on BPro radio with Bobby Heck providing additional insight our Top 11 prospect.