SB Nation - Paul Janish

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

Trade Target: Maicer Izturis

Slyde — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:19:20 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Is Maicer Izturis the potential answer to the Reds 2010 needs at shortstop?

Browse more photos »

Ed Price at MLB Fanhouse is reporting this morning that the Angels could move infielder Maicer Izturis in a deal this off-season. The 29-year old Izturis is a switch-hitter who has played a mix of 2B, SS, and 3B in his big league career and he's played all 3 fairly well defensively. Offensively, he's a career .278/.343/.393 hitter, though his power has been slightly more developed over the last couple of seasons (he slugged .434 in 2009). He shows decent, though not great patience (8.7% career walk rate), but he's only struck out in 11% of his plate appearances. Since we know that he would bat 2nd for the Reds, it's nice to know that he gets on base at a good rate and that he handles the bat pretty well to be able to do the things that Dusty would ask him to do while batting 2nd.

His hitting projections for 2010 look solidly average (only have these two systems for Izturis so far):

Projection	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bill James	.283	.348	.392	.329
CHONE	.279	.346	.394	.331

Compare that to Paul Janish:

Projection	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bill James	.223	.301	.319	.276
CHONE	.237	.311	.350	.298
ZiPS	.239	.310	.340

Janish's best projection still puts him about 15 runs offensively behind Izturis over 600 PA. CHONE rates them both as +5 defensively, so an acquisition of Izturis would likely bring the Reds about a win and a half in 2010.

I think Izturis is definitely somebody the Reds should pursue. One-and-a-half WAR is not a huge amount, but Izturis will likely not make more than $2.5-3 million next season, so it would definitely be a cost-effective upgrade. The question is what will the Reds have to give up. Price says in his article that the Angels are looking for a corner outfielder and bullpen help. I'm not sure if they'd have any interest in Jonny Gomes, and he's probably the most viable candidate as an outfield centerpiece to a deal.

That means the Reds probably need to go the relief route. Arthur Rhodes could be a potential candidate for dealing, and the money/contract situation would be similar (both players are free agents after 2010). Given Rhodes' age, I think the Reds should be willing to give him up in a deal since he's a definite risk to have a big dropoff any day now. I'd also consider Daniel Ray Herrera or Jared Burton available as part of a package. And of course, if the Angels wanted to take Francisco Cordero's contract, I'm sure the Reds would even be willing to chip in a couple million to make it worth the effort.

What do you think? Should the Reds pursue Izturis? Do they have a package of players to get it done?

(h/t nycredsfan)

Free Agent Options: Shortstops

Slyde — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:30:41 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Marco Scutaro and Orlando Cabrera are two shortstop possibilities for the Reds on the free agent market this off-season.

Browse more photos »

As Walt Jocketty spends his time in Chicago, cozying up to the other GMs for a long Winter's ~~nap~~ season of dealing, he appears to have two priorities on his mind: shortstop and catcher. The Reds had reportedly been trying to deal with the Brewers for J.J. Hardy, but those talks didn't get anywhere and now Hardy is in Minnesota, likely to be the starting shortstop for the opening of the new Target Field.

The Reds could stick with Paul Janish and hope for the best, but his combined batting line of .231/.317/.332 over the last 3 years in the Majors and Minors doesn't exactly instill a bunch of confidence in his ability to be the everyday shortstop for a contending team. Not that he is without his positives. He could potentially be on one of the top 5 defensive shortstops in the league. Based upon his very small sample in the big leagues, he's been doing quite well. He's posted a UZR of 9.9 in 118 big league games at shortstop - hardly enough of a sample to know what his true talent level is, but if it is anywhere around 10, he's one of the best. On a team that could be struggling to generate offense though, his defense may not be enough to make up for that putrid offense.

So, what are some of the options out there for the Reds to fill the need at shortstop? While they could still make a trade, it's hard to know at this point who (Hanley Ramirez) might be available. We do know who should be free agents though, so let's look at them.

According to Cots, there are 12 possible free agent shortstops available this off-season. I doubt that anybody seriously considers Juan Castro, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Ramon Martinez, or John McDonald as much of an option as an everyday starter at shortstop. I don't really feel like discussing Alex Gonzalez for fear that the Reds might read this and misconstrue it as a desire to have him back on the team. Adam Everett can still do a pretty good job of picking it in the field, but honestly, he's just an older, more injury-prone version of Janish. And Kahlil Greene is a decent bet to hit better than Janish, but his 3 year average for UZR puts him at about 8 runs below the average shortstop defensively. Given that even at his best, he's basically a league average hitter, I wouldn't say he's worth it.

That leaves us with four possibilities on the free agent market: Orlando Cabrera, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, and Jack Wilson. We'll take a look at each after the jump.

Orland Cabrera

I would have loved for the Reds to sign Cabrera a couple of years ago, but I'm a little leery of signing a 35-year old shortstop coming off of a bad season. Cabrera was only slightly above replacement-level last year (0.6 WAR) and that's mainly because he played a difficult position. His 3-year average UZR puts him at about 2.5 runs above average, which isn't bad for a shortstop, but his age leaves me concerned that his defensive skills may have deteriorated more than a 3-year average might indicate (his UZR in 2009 was -15.3). Offensively, he's much better than Janish, even in a bad season, but his wOBA has dropped each of the last 3 seasons from a career high of .331 (about league average) in 2007 to .316 in 2008 to .310 in 2009. He's definitely not trending the right way.

When I would take him: I haven't been too positive on Cabrera, but I would take him on a one-year deal for at most $3 million (he made $4 million on a one-year deal last year). The biggest problem that I see with him as an option is that if his defense has gone, his reputation as a great defender will precede him, which means that he'll never be taken out for a defensive replacement. He's not good enough on offense or defense to justify that.

Marco Scutaro

The first thing that jumps out at me for Scutaro is the red flag of an outlier year. Actually it would be an outlier 2 years. As a 33-year old, Scutaro put up his best season in 2009 (4.5 WAR), topping his previous best season of 2008 (2.7 WAR), which topped his previous best season of, well, he was never really that good before then. He is exactly the type of player the Reds should shy away from, if you ask me. It's not normal for players to suddenly get better and turn in All Star performances in their early or mid-30s. He is a high risk for a fall-off from his 2009 season, but baseball doesn't tend to pay players that way. I'm guessing that Scutaro will get paid as if he has found a new level, and I'm also guessing that won't turn out to be a good contract.

When I would take him: That's not to say that I wouldn't consider signing him. I wouldn't give him anymore than 2 guaranteed years though, and I wouldn't want any of his years to be worth more than $6 million. On the positive side, Scutaro increased his plate discipline dramatically last year, and that seems to have had a great affect on his output. His BABIP actually appears to be in line with expectation, so I wouldn't say his season was obviously fluky at the plate. However, the Reds don't exactly have a reputation for fostering patience at the plate. Defensively, he appears to be good enough that if he can stay around league average offensively, he could be worth 2-2.5 wins. I'm just not convinced that his offense is real yet.

Miguel Tejada

The real issue with Tejada is salary expectations. He has averaged $12 million a year over the last 4 years, and I would imagine that he's not going to be willing to take an overly dramatic paycut next year unless the market forces it on him. He is likely the best offensive option for shortstop available this off-season. He definitely doesn't have the output of his, ahem, prime years, but he's been slightly better than average over 2 of the last 3 years, and I think he's a safe bet to be somewhere close to average in 2010. The big concern offensively is that he only walked 19 times in over 635 plate appearances last year. Dusty Baker may like that, but it scares the bejeezus out of me. He did balance that with just 48 strikeouts, so at least he's putting the ball in play. And he's probably still good for 30+ doubles and 15 HR, which could give the offense a little bit of a boost. Defensively, he's below average (probably around 4 runs below average), but I think it's well enough known that he's not a defensive master that Baker would likely use Janish as a defensive replacement for him.

When I would take him: With Tejada, the Reds best hope is that he has too high of expectations for what kind of money he can get and he is forced to take a one-year "prove yourself" deal. If I'm Jocketty, I'm lurking around Tejada, ready to swoop in and make a deal at the first sign of this possibility. I'm not too worried about the money on a one-year deal because I think Tejada would make Gomes somewhat expendable, though it'd definitely be nice to have both. I'm not sure I would do multi-years for Tejada, mainly because I expect he'll be changing positions in the next year or two.

Jack Wilson

Wilson actually has an option that still needs to be declined, but I have a hard time believing that the Mariners want to pay him $8.4 million in 2010. Wilson might be an odd choice for the Reds to consider because he's basically a slightly better version of Janish, but he'll likely cost a few million more. However, Wilson is a somewhat better hitter than Janish, and has been much better at times. That potential could make him attractive as a free agent, especially since his worst season after his rookie year is still considerably better than what Janish has done as a big leaguer. Defensively, Wilson is close to as good as his reputation, and that's the most you can ask for a player that makes announcers go ga ga over his defense. The downside of Wilson is that there is no way you'll get Baker to move him out of the 2-spot in the lineup.

When I would take him: Something that I haven't mentioned yet, but is actually very important in these considerations is the type of free agent each of these guys are. Cabrera, Scutaro,and Tejada are all Type-A free agents, which means that if their respective teams offer them arbitration and they decline and sign with a new team, the new team will have to give up their first round pick. The caveat to this is if that pick is in the first 15, then they'd have to give up their 2nd round pick. So, if the Reds, who have the 12th pick in the draft, sign any of the previous players, they'd likely have to give up their 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft. It's not a enormous sacrifice, but still a big consideration. (EDIT: It appears that Cabrera is not a risk to be offered arbitration as his contract states that the Twins cannot offer arbitration to him, so signing him will not mean draft picks. Thanks to Thundering Turtle for the clarification.)

Wilson is not a Type-A free agent. He has however managed to be a league average players (about 2 WAR) over the last 3 seasons. This is because the Elias Rankings that determine the type of free agency don't take defensive value into account. Wilson is a very good defender with at least some possibility to be a decent, though not great hitter. Since the Reds wouldn't have to give up any draft picks, that should make him even more attractive. I'd consider him over Janish mainly because I think Wilson has a better chance to be average at his position. I suspect though that he'll be looking for a multi-year deal. Even if the deal is a cheap one, I really wouldn't want someone like him blocking Zack Cozart, who frankly looks like a much younger, cheaper version of Wilson.

What do you think? Do any of these guys do it for you at shortstop?

Checking out Bill James Projections for 2010

Slyde — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:50:17 -0000

We're still a week away from the World Series, but now is as good of a time as any to start checking out projections for the 2010 season. I've gotten my hands on the initial set of Bill James Projections for next season, so I thought I'd share them with you. The full set of projections will be available with much, much more in the 2010 Bill James Handbook, which comes out next month and you can pre-order here.

I've broken the projections down a bit into groups, the first set being players who don't really have competition for their position (yet), and the following sets split up among players from 2009 who could be part of a position competition. First, the "starters":

**Starters**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Jay Bruce	.296/.351/.540	.223/.303/.470	574	.274/.340/.537
Paul Janish	N/A	.211/.296/.305	188	.223/.301/.319
Brandon Phillips	.263/.313/.431	.276/.329/.447	613	.269/.322/.434
Scott Rolen	.268/.356/.453	.305/.368/.455	482	.278/.357/.442
Joey Votto	.307/.386/.536	.322/.414/.567	502	.311/.397/.550

The James projections were way off on Bruce, as most systems were. As you can see though, they are still very optimistic about the young right-fielder. I think that is justified since he suffered from quite a bit of statistical bad luck last season, but I think we all know that he still has some adjustments that he needs to make at the plate before he'll likely achieve that projection. Offensively, Janish is a black-hole, but if he's the only one and he doesn't bat 2nd, his defense is well worth having in the lineup. BP's projection is what it almost always is. I'd like to see more power from Rolen, but I think that ship has sailed. Votto is...well...awesome.

**Left Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Wladimir Balentien	.239/.312/.444	.234/.305/.385	160	.244/.316/.431
Jonny Gomes	.251/.356/.486	.267/.338/.541	278	.245/.331/.486
Darnell McDonald	N/A	.267/.306/.400	174	.270/.321/.414
Laynce Nix	N/A	.239/.291/.476	214	.257/.309/.467

Based on these projections, there aren't a lot of outstanding prospects for a typically high offensive position like left field. I'd still like to see Gomes brought back, especially given these other options. However, I'm also not convinced that Balentien can't outperform those projections. I'm not sure if he's good enough for an everyday starter role, but I think he could potentially put up a little more power.

**Center Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Chris Dickerson	.268/.360/.454	.275/.370/.373	254	.276/.372/.429
Drew Stubbs	N/A	.267/.323/.439	544	.267/.336/.390
Willy Taveras	.267/.323/.315	.240/.275/.285	277	.271/.322/.321

To be honest with you, I'd give Chris Dickerson the starting job in center field next year, if I thought he would stay healthy. I wouldn't be upset if Drew Stubbs is out there, especially if his power surge last season is real (the James Projections don't think so). Willy Taveras should be gone.

**Catcher**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Ryan Hanigan	.275/.357/.382	.263/.361/.331	344	.277/.361/.366
Ramon Hernandez	.253/.319/.411	.258/.336/.362	120	.260/.328/.405

Surely no one thinks that Hernandez is worth $8 million more than Hanigan next season.

What do you think? Are they way off anywhere? Does this change your opinion of any of the players?

Cueto goes to 11! Reds win, 8-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:40:09 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. The Irresistable Force went 2-3 with a double, a home run, three RBI, a run scored, and two walks. Dude's good.

Key Plays

Johnny Cueto got off to a rough start. He walked Andrew McCutchen, then gave up a run-scoring double to Andy LaRoche. It seems like it's been awhile since we've harped on all the first inning runs the Reds have given up. They gave up a lot.
In the second inning, the Reds used the same walk-double strategy to even the game. Scott Rolen drew the walk, and Darnell McDonald hit the double. Walks to Ramon Hernandez and Drew Stubbs loaded the bases, but Paul Janish flew out to end the inning.
Scott Rolen homered in the third. Know what? I haven't really missed Edwin since we traded him.
McDonald led off the fourth inning with a single, and went to third on Ramon Hernandez's single. Then he scored on a passed ball. After Cueto and Stubbs made outs, Paul Janish walked, and he and Hernandez scored on Joey Votto's double. Votto was thrown out trying to stretch the hit into a triple.
Cueto ran into trouble in the sixth inning. He gave up a leadoff single to Garrett Jones, and a walk to Brandon Moss one out later. Then Delwyn Young hit a three run homer to bring the Pirates within one run.
The Pirates hadn't counted on El Nino Destructor, however. In the bottom of the sixth, Ramon Hernandez doubled to lead off, and Willy Taveras came in to run for him. Then Juan Francisco hit a double to right field and Taveras scored. ROAR! Francisco then scored on successive sacrifices by Stubbs and Janish. ROAR!
Votto homered in the eighth inning. Such a giver.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Brandon Phillips had been 0-16 before singling in the eighth. If he gets five RBI tomorrow, he'll finish with 100 on the season.
Francisco Cordero pitched a scoreless ninth, but it was not a save situation. He's still one save shy of 40 for the season.
Joey Votto's 25th home run gave him a career high.
With the win, Johnny Cueto joins fellow starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, and Justin Lehr to not have a losing record.
Since both the Brewers and Reds won, the Reds have clinched fourth place in the NL Central.

Final - 10.3.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	6	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	1	X	8	11	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (11 - 11) LP: Zach Duke (11 - 16)

Complete Coverage >

Pirates discover the Reds' Secret Underground Lehr. Reds lose, 3-1.

Brendanukkah — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 04:07:16 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Sure, Brandon looks like he's concentrating on the play, but secretly he's beginning to suspect he's not going to be getting that $2 million from David Letterman. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Andy LaRoche. He went 2-3 and drove in two runs.

Key Plays

The Brothers McCutchen did the damage in the third inning. Lehr walked Daniel McCutchen, then Andrew McCutchen doubled. That's when Andy LaRoche hit his single. Pirates 2, Reds 0.
In the fourth inning, Lastings Milledge went all Blastings Milledge and hit a home run. Pirates 3, Reds 0.
The Reds didn't have much in the way of offense, but Wladimir Balentien did hit a home run in the seventh inning. Pirates 3, Reds 1.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

On both of his hits, Andy LaRoche was thrown out trying to stretch his single into a double.
Double-machine Paul Janish hit a double. Then Joey Votto hit what should have been a double, but Lastings Milledge made a nice catch. Flashtings-the-Leather Milledge.
Arthur Rhodes apparently broke his toe on Sept. 4. He then pitched in eight games. And now he's on the disabled list. Thanks for the great season, Colossus!
Walt Jocketty also broke his toe when he was kicking Dick Pole to the curb.
This was Daniel McCutchen's first career victory. Shame it came against the Reds, but congratulations kid. You prevented the Pirates from losing 100 games this season.

Final - 10.2.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	5	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	5	0
WP: Daniel McCutchen (1 - 2) SV: Matt Capps (27) LP: Justin Lehr (5 - 3)

Complete Coverage >

I'm gonna keep on loving you, Arroyo Speedwagon. Reds win, 6-1.

Brendanukkah — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 04:20:27 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Graynd Slaym. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Laynce Nix. The Daynce Mix hit his first career grand slam to lead the Reds over the Cardinals.

Key Plays

Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce led off the second inning with walks, and RBI man Ryan Hanigan hit a single to score Rolen. Bronson Arroyo then singled to load the bases, and Drew Stubbs also drew a walk to force in Bruce. Reds 2, Cardinals 0.
The walks continued to haunt in the third inning. Brandon Phillips walked, Rolen doubled, and Bruce walked again. Up stepped Laynce Nix and bye bye baseball. Grand slam! Reds 6, Cardinals 0.
Nix was still feeling swell after his homer, and let Skip Schumaker's ball fall under his glove for a double. Albert Pujols then drove him in with a single. Reds 6, Cardinals 1.
Bronson left the game with one out in the ninth, after having walked Troy Glaus. Nick Masset came in and gave up a single to Pujols, a fielder's choice to Matt Holliday, and a walk to Colby Rasmus, before striking out Ryan Ludwick with the bases loaded. REDS WINNARS!

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Reds can do no worse than split the season series with the Cardinals. A win tomorrow gives them a 9-7 advantage.
The Reds went 18-9 in September, the only month in which they did not have double digit losses. Four of those losses were to Colorado, and five of those losses were by only one run.
John Smoltz complained that the game balls had not been properly rubbed with mud. Obviously it didn't seem to affect Arroyo, but Bronson did share this interesting nugget: "They don't mud them up as much here as they do at other places. It was a cool night, and it's hard to hold on sometimes." Could a mudding deficiency help explain some of our historically lackluster pitching?
Who says Dusty Baker ruins arms? Listen to why he pulled Arroyo with one out in the ninth: "He said he was running on empty and his legs were spent," Baker said. "When I heard that, you go get him, especially late in the season, 111 pitches and Pujols up there."
Joey Votto and Paul Janish both hit doubles. It was Votto's 16th double in September and Janish's tenth (out of 37 and 20 on the year, respectively).
Arroyo won 15 games for the second year in a row. He hasn't given up more than three runs in a game since July 22.
The Brewers lost, so the Reds are only one game out of third place.

Final - 9.30.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	X	6	8	0
WP: Bronson Arroyo (15 - 13) LP: John Smoltz (1 - 3)

Complete Coverage >

Reds finally decide to start their season, dismantle the Astros 10-4

BK — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 04:24:37 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

You want a shot at the rotation next year? You're going through this man. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Matt Maloney, of course. Matty went 7 strong innings, giving up only 2 runs on 6 hits, and walked nobody. He struck out 4, and probably could have gone another inning, since he was only at 93 pitches and had an 8-run lead, but Dusty yanked him in favor of unproven bullpenners.

Key Plays

Joey Votto struck early for the good guys, hitting his 23rd home run of the season to give the Reds a 1-0 lead.
The Reds broke out in the 2nd for 5 runs in the 2nd, and ended up chasing former Red Brian Moehler (remember that?) out of the game in the 3rd, giving the Reds a 7-1 lead.
Jay Bruce's solo shot in the 5th and Wladimir Balentien's 2-run single in the 6th gave the Reds 10 runs, and free wings for Astros fans.
After Maloney left after the 7th, Pedro Viola gave up 2 runs in the 8th. That was pretty much the game.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Matt Maloney put together another great start, and is now firmly in the conversation for the 5th starter spot next year. If he keeps pitching like he did today, he's got my vote. His ERA is 2.65 over his last 3 starts, and he put together his longest outing of the year this evening. Also, he's only walked 1 batter in those 3 starts.
The Reds 17 hits was the second highest total of the season, one less than the 18 they had in Arizona and it ties the 17 they had in Milwaukee.
6 Reds players had multiple hits, including a 3-for-5 night from Juan Francisco, who filled in for Scott Rolen, who was a late scratch. The other 5 were all names we should all start getting used to, in Drew Stubbs, Paul Janish, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and My Wladdy Balentien. Speaking for myself, it feels pretty good to see all those guys performing well on the same night.
Jo-eh drove in 4 of the Reds 10 runs.
All 9 of the Reds starters had at least one hit.
Jared Burton pitched a perfect 9th. This is a good sign, I think.
Reds win their 5th game in a row, and 9 of the last 11. Too bad the season doesn't start in September.
Rick Sweet was in uniform in the dugout as well. You may remember him as the manager who took Louisville to the playoffs this year.

Reds use Tresselball to beat the Marlins 3-2, by taking an early lead and sitting on it.

Brendanukkah — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 14:25:19 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

You can't spell "Jay Bruce" (in Latin) without "RBI." (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Sorry for the lateness of the recap. I fell asleep. You'd think the scintillating repartee in the game thread would have left me wide-eyed, but no.

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Matt Maloney. The rookie earned his first major league win, and did it in gritty style by fighting through the pain caused by a blister on his finger. He went five innings, gave up two runs (same ERA as a quality start) and struck out three while walking one. Darnell McDonald had two hits, Jay Bruce had two RBI, and the bullpen pitched four scoreless innings.

Key Plays

Darnell McDonald led off the game with a home run. WHOA! Doubles machine Paul Janish then hit a double, making everyone who said he shouldn't bat second look like a dope. Joey Votto and Scott Rolen both drew walks, and with two outs Jay Bruce hit an opposite field, bases loaded single to drive in two more runs. The Reds had three runs, and decided to take the rest of the night off.
Maloney was generally outstanding, but began to run out of gas in the fifth inning as his pitch count crept into the 90s. Chris Coghlan doubled to start the frame, and took third on Nick Johnson's groundout. He scored when future-Red Hanley Ramirez singled, and Ramirez himself scored on a dubbla by Dan Uggla. Maloney got Cody Ross to foul out to end the inning, then hit the showers.
The end.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Reds set a new record for second smallest attendance at GABP, with 9,685.
Coghlan had four hits on the night, and leads all NL rookies with 136. Remember when we were hyping Ryan Hanigan for Rookie of the Year? Good times... Well he only has 63 hits. Clearly Dusty is right not to play him.
Francisco Cordero got his NL-leading 38th save and his fourth save in as many days. He hasn't had a stretch like that since July 3-6, where he got three saves and blew the fourth but still earned the win.
The Reds have won nine in a row over the Marlins at GABP.

Just Like They Drew It Up. Reds Win 7-5 to Break 5-game Losing Streak.

Slyde — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 21:01:24 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Yer a....GULP....mmmmmm.

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Drew Sutton. Sutton only saw three pitches all day, but that was enough as his 2-run pinch hit double in the 9th inning was the difference for the winning squad.

Key Plays

The story of the day today was base runners, as in the Reds had 21 of them when you add up the 10 hits, 8 walks, and 3 errors by the Cubs. Thankfully, they managed to get some hits today with runners on base, going 5 for 13 with runners in scoring position.

The Reds put their first two runs on the board due to the Cubs fielding incompetence. Three errors in the 3rd inning allowed the Reds to load up the bases and score a run before Brandon Phillips singled in a second run to put the team up 2-0.
The Reds added 3 more runs in the 4th inning after Adam Rosales and Drew Stubbs singles put runners at 1st and 3rd. Darnell McDonald followed with one of his two hits on the day to drive in Rosales. Joey Votto did the same to drive in Stubbs. Consecutive walks to Phillips and Scott Rolen put another run on the board and the Reds led 5-0.
While all of this was happening, Johnny Cueto was cruising right along, allowing just 1 hit and 2 walks through the first 5 innings. He ran into trouble in the 6th though, walking lead-off hitter Ryan Theriot and back-to-back singles Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, the latter scoring Theriot. Geovany Soto ended Cueto's day with a double that plated Lee and moved Ramirez to third base.
Daniel Ray Herrera relieved Cueto but allowed a sacrifice fly to score Ramirez and a walk and was replaced with Ramon Ramirez who induced a flyout from Jeff Baker to end the inning.
The Cubs rallied again in the 7th a walks to Kosuke Fukudome and Lee put runners on 1st and 2nd with one out. Nick Masset came to the game to face Aramis Ramirez who promptly singled to load the bases. Masset struck Milton Bradley out, but then gave up another double to Geovanny Soto. Both Fukudome and Lee scored, but a nice relay from Stubbs to Paul Janish to Corky Miller nailed Ramirez at the plate, preserving a 5-5 tie.
The 8th inning was quiet on both sides, and it looked like the Reds would stall out in the 9th as Rolen grounded into a double play after a Phillips single. However, 2-out walks to Jonny Gomes and Kevin Barker left the door open for Drew Sutton to be a hero, and Sutton didn't disappoint. His double into right field plated both runners and gave the Reds a 7-5 lead.
Francisco Cordero made quick work of the Cubs in the 9th, throwing just 9 pitches in a 1-2-3 inning.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

The win today still leaves open the possibility that the Reds could finish this road trip with a split. As bad as they played during the 5-game losing streak, a split would feel like a freaking miracle.
The Reds had 10 different players reach base via a hit or a walk.