SB Nation - Esmerling Vasquez

This Week in AZ Baseball: winter meetings, drugs and Reno personnel

Jim McLennan — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 01:00:20 -0000

I'd just like to say, gastroenteritis sucks. One second, you're feeling perfectly fine, the next you're calling for Ralph and Hughie on the big white telephone. Rinse. Repeat. I haven't been able to be more than 30 feet from a bathroom in two days now, except for the drive to and from work - and certainly makes for a nervous twenty minutes there, I can assure you. [Yes, I could call in sick, but I'm a firm believer that time off should only be taken when you are well enough to enjoy it. If I'm going to be miserable, I may as well get paid for it] Still, life goes on, and so does the ongoing work for the Diamondbacks' front-office, as they build towards 2010.

After the jump, we'll take a look at what the winter meetings may hold for Arizona - brief summary, nothing too startling, probably - discuss some unpleasantness down in Mobile, and look at what some of our guys are doing in the Central and South American leagues. I'll bring the saltine crackers.

The annual winter meetings take place next week in Indianapolis. Nick Piecoro doesn't expect much action over them, saying "The more drawn out the off-season, one team executive mused this week, the better it could be for the Diamondbacks, who might wind up bargain hunting for a pitcher deep into January." This makes some sense: outside of the very shallow top tier of starting pitchers available - which largely begins and ends with John Lackey - there isn't anyone who seems to deserve too much chasing. I wouldn't hold my breath expecting our rotation to be fleshed out until after the New Year.

Steve Gilbert reports that our overall priorities during the winter are "a fourth starter to replace free agent Doug Davis, whom the club is not interested in retaining, some depth in the bullpen and possibly a veteran hitter that could play multiple positions including first base." Again, if you're feeling masochistic, click through to the comments and read such sad drivel from the alleged "fans" as, "Given the overall performance of Max Scherzer last season, his stats, and tendoncies [sic] I would consider him a number 5 kind of starter." Really. If I wasn't already wanting to throw up before, I'm sure I would be on reading that. [Pause for DayQuil]

Speaking of pharmaceutiicals, two Diamondbacks have been suspended for 50 games for failing drug tests. Before your heart stops entirely, I should point out that, while still disappointing, they are minor-leaguers, Daniel Vasquez and Matt Tupman. Both were most recently with Double-A Mobile, though Tupman is now a free-agent. Vasquez tested positive for metabolites of Stanozolol, a performance-enhancing substance, and Tupman had a second positive test for a "drug of abuse"- an interestingly-vague choice of words that picqued my interest.

Assuming it's the same in the minors, the Major League Baseball drug policy lists the following as "drugs of abuse:" cocaine, LSD, marijuana [are you listening, Timmy?], opiates, MDMA (Ecstasy), GHB and Phencyclidine (PCP). Or, as Amy Winehouse would refer to it, "a good start to the evening." Hey, I guess when you're a 30-year old player in Double-A, guees you need to make your own entertainment... Since Matt is a free-agent, the suspension will kick in whenever he signs with a team: this news will not exactly have improved the chances of that happening.

Larry Dobrow looks at the Diamondbacks. Not really too much new there - the impact of injuries, no need to panic, the young talent which has to develop - but his take on Eric Byrnes was... Well, here you go: "Speaking of giant sucking sounds, Eric Byrnes is a great guy to have around if you need color commentary during the potato-sack race at the team picnic. Unfortunately, that's more or less where his usefulness ends. His speed and kamikaze defense is as much a relic of 2007 as that one Justin Timberlake song. You know, the one with the little falsetto flutter." He concludes by saying, "The Diamondbacks will vault past the Rockies and Giants on their way to challenging for the wild card, if not the NL West title." I'll have what he's having.

Brett Butler will be back to manage the Reno Aces in 2010. He initially interviewed for the vacant third-base position with the Marlins - ironically, this was empty because previous incumbent, Bo Porter, left to take up the same spot with the Diamondbacks. Pitching coach Mike Parrott and hitting coach Rick Burleson will also return - the former was also looking elsewhere this winter, interviewing for a spot as minor league pitching coordinator in Seattle, but didn't get it either. It'll be Butler's fifth year as a manager in the Diamondbacks organization.

A quick run through the latest activities of the Diamondbacks in winter ball. Tony Abreu has managed exactly zero walks in the two weeks since we last updated things, though his last game for Aguilas appears to have been on November 28. Not been able to find any sources explaining why, or that I can even pass to Mrs. SnakePit for translation from the Spanish. Also in the Dominican is Pedro Ciriaco, who continue a 2009 tour which has already seen him play in Mobile and Scottsdale. In Venezuela, Rusty Ryal and Gerardo Parra are seeing action: the latter put together back-to-back three-hit outings, while Ryal appears to be collecting bruises, having been hit four times in only seven games.

Some of our relievers have also entered action. Esmerling Vasquez has thrown three hitless innings in the Dominican for Estrellas de Oriente, but Juan Gutierrez's first two appearances on behalf of Leones del Caracas in Venezuela have not gone so well. In two innings, the results have been five hits and three earned runs. Gutierrez ended up taking the loss in the second game, after coming in for the eleventh with the scores tied. And with, back on to the Gastic Flu Weight-loss Diet I go. Jenny Craig, eat your heart out! I'll never laugh at "flu-like symptoms" ever again, I swear...

The 2009 'Pitties: Single-game Performance of the Year

Jim McLennan — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:18:48 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Petit tallies up the hits by Pittsburgh. He looks almost as startled as we were by the answer.

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The first 'Pittie of the 2009 season proved to be one of the closest ballots in the history of the awards, with four of the options for Play of the Year each receiving between 19-24% of the vote, and the top two choices being tied as late as Wednesday afternoon, when 130 votes had been cast. However, the final few votes meant that the Play of the Year goes to the Triple-Play against the Dodgers. Josh Wilson's time with Arizona may have been short - only 11 games - but between this and his turn on the mound, it certainly had its share of memorable moments!

We now move on to the second category. After the jump, we'll revisit the five best single-game performances of the 2009 season by a Diamondback - and also see why, curiously, Roger Cedeno is connected to more than one of them! The links in the header go to the game recap, in a new browser window, so you can relive the performance there when considering your vote.

B-bullpen no-hits the Padres for nine straight frames, June 7 vs. SDP
This game was nearly an awful example of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Leading 6-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls allowed five runs to blow the game. In extra innings, the offense didn't help, being blanked for eight straight frames before Mark Reynolds homered off pinch-pitcher Josh Wilson in the 18th. But fortunately for Arizona, Jon Rauch, Esmerling Vasquez, Clay Zavada + Leo Rosales were magnificent, allowing no hits from the 10th through the 18th, effectively pitching a no-hit complete game. Rosales finally got the win, retiring the last ten Padres.
Dan Haren goes fishing for Marlins, July 10 vs. FLA
The best-pitched game of the season by a Diamondback, as measured by Game Score, was Dan Haren's complete-game shutout of Florida just before the All-Star break [Haren had #2 and #3 on the list too]. It was also tied for the eighth-best Game Score in the National League this season. The four-hit gem featured one walk and ten strikeouts. After a single and wild pitch to lead off the game, the Marlins managed to get only one other runner past first-base the rest of the way. Haren also added a hit, driving in a run with an infield single in the fourth, and came around to score on a home-run by Felipe Lopez.

Yusmeiro Petit takes no-hitter into 8th inning, August 4 vs. PIT
Just for comparison, I don't think Brandon Webb has ever had a no-hitter through five innings, let alone allowing zero hits through the front seven. Of all the D-backs pitchers, you'd have got long odds against Petit coming closer to a no-hitter than anyone since the Big Unit's perfect game in 2004. But he completely blanked the Pirates offense, giving up only three walks before Roger Cedeno singled with no outs in the eighth. Petit retired the next three batters to finish strong, with eight shutout innings and threw 108 pitches, a dozen more than in any major-league game for his career.

Chris Young smacks three homers in a game, September 6 vs. COL
With homers in the second, sixth and eighth, Young became the eighth Diamondbacks to homer three times in a game. It was a startling performance as he'd only had two long balls in his previous fifty appearances combined, going all the way back to June 13th. According to Hit Tracker Online, the home-runs totaled 1,252 feet, almost a quarter-mile. Chris had a chance to go deep again in the ninth against Matt Herges, but the Rockies' hurler walked Young instead - not often you'll see a home pitcher being greeted with disapproval by the crowd for not giving up a home-run!
Justin Upton goes 5-for-5, September 16 vs. SDP
Upton became the 13th Diamondbacks to collect five hits in a game, and the first to do it on the road since Danny Bautista in April 2004 - that he did it in one of the most hitter-unfriendly parks in the league, Petco, makes the feat all the more impressive. He doubled in the first, singled in the fourth, and tripled in the sixth, giving him two chances at the cycle, but could 'only' single in the seventh and ninth. Just two players younger than Upton have gone 5-for-5 in a game, since Cal Ripken did it as a 21-year old in 1982 (Alex Rodriguez and Cedeno - yep, him again! - both in 1996).

Poll

What was the best single-game performance for Arizona in 2009?

B-bullpen no-hits the Padres for nine innings

38 votes

Haren's complete-game shutout of the Marlins

18 votes

Petit takes no-hitter of the Pirates into 8th

20 votes

Young hits three homers vs. the Rockies

13 votes

Upton goes 5-for-5 against the Padres

12 votes

101 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part V: The Bullpen

Jim McLennan — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 20:15:35 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Somehow, this pic - Qualls yelling to the bench for help after hurting his knee against Houston - sums up the bullpen's entire season...

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The Arizona bullpen allowed 271 runs and finished the season with a 4.61 ERA, both numbers which put them ahead only of Washington among National League relief corps. We've previously discussed the waking nightmare which was the eighth inning, but it's also worth taking a look at the numbers posted by the bullpen in general. How do they stack up in total? What were the issues? How might things have gone, and where do we go from here?

FIP vs. ERA
On straight ERA, as noted above, our relievers were pretty bad, even when you adjust for park factor. However, the underlying performance numbers weren't quite as horrendous. Arizona relievers had a combined line of .264/.338/.395, which is an sOPS+ of only 101, not too much worse than average. Fangraphs.com's FIP stat goes even further: the D-backs FIP was 4.02 - sixth-best in the league - with the biggest gap between that and 'actual' ERA of any team in the National League. This explains why they rated our pen at 36.1 runs above replacement, not just above average, but very close to the number (39.4) posted by the "lights out" 2007 bullpen.

The only two relievers with 10+ innings, to have a FIP higher than their ERA were Clay Zavada (FIP 3.92) and Blaine Boyer (3.34), both of which make sense. Zavada certainly benefited from the lucky scoreless streak which opened his career - his ERA the rest of the way was 5.34. And Boyer is obviously not the 2.68 ERA pitcher he was with Arizona: if he was anything like that, the Cardinals wouldn't have dumped him. Still, even if they deliver their FIP numbers in 2010, I don't think we'll mind too much. The other eight relievers all had FIP better than their ERA, the amount ranging from 0.07 (yeah, Scott Schoeneweis was as bad as he looked) to 1.06 for Juan Gutierrez.

There are various reasons why FIP can differ. It's based purely on home-runs, strikeouts and walks: you might think, "Hang on - the number of hits that stay in the park is irrelevant?" But the problem there, is that those do depend on the defense, so are not a good measure of pitching ability. I'll go into more detail about our glovework in the final part of this series, but Arizona's defensive efficiency - the percentage of balls turned into outs - was below average. If it seems counter-intuitive that you put H, K and HR into a mathematical blender and get a number that means anything, studies have shown that FIP is a better indicator of future performance than ERA.

Win Probability
However, the Hardball Times Win Probability Added is less convinced, saying our relievers cost Arizona 2.81 wins, this year ahead only of Pittsburgh and Washington. This is the same Win Probability we graph after every game; the winning team has 0.5 of a win to divide up, and the losers -0.5 blame. Over the entire season, our hitters "cost" Arizona 6.53 wins, and our starting pitching 1.67. [The total, not by coincidence, is 11, the number we were below .500] However, you should remember the value of a performance is radically dependent on when it happens. As Dave Studeman points out, "If a player hits a home run in the ninth inning of a 1-0 game, he is credited with more WPA points than if he hits a home run in the first inning of a 1-0 game."

The late innings will tend to have more leverage as a result, though given the bullpen threw about half the innings of the starters, to be "responsible" for more losses than the rotation isn't good. Still, the implication is that the offense was a bigger problem for the team in 2009 than the pitching in total. For context, it 2008, the bullpen WPA was -1.16 wins and in 2007, it was a stunning +7.48 victories. This is likely a reflection of the huge number of close contests in which that team was involved. Almost one-third (52) were decided by one-run, and when you get into the late innings of such games, every out has a very significant impact on Win Probability.

Was the bullpen overtaxed?
Not apparently. The average team saw 2,184 PAs dealt with by their relievers last season; Arizona saw fractionally less than that, at 2,122 - it clearly helped to have one of the most durable starters in the league, in Dan Haren, whose IP/start was 6.95, fourth-best in the league. Jon Garland (6.18, 24th) and Doug Davis (5.98, 34th) were also above the NL-average of 5.82. The Diamondbacks were also the least-likely team to use a reliever on back-to-back days: this happened only 80 times, the most common subjects being Gutierrez and Rauch, each eleven times. However, the results of such outings were good, with a 3.67 ERA.

The only reliever who worked more than 55 innings for the Diamondbacks was Gutierrez, who threw 71 innings [Rauch and Tony Peña were both around the same for the year, combining the totals for their two teams], which was not enough to put him among the top thirty 'pure' relievers in the majors. By appearances, his 65 games was only ranked #70, though Rauch ended up =13th by that metric. Arizona were right in the middle of the pack with regard to asking our relievers to get more than three outs too, so overall, workload doesn't appear to have been much of an issue for the bullpen as a whole.

Inherited issues
What did seem to be a problem was the bullpen's problem with inherited runners. Across the league, 30% of inherited runners scored, but for the Diamondbacks' relievers, that number was 38%, the worst figure in the NL. Only two relievers were below league average, and that fractionally: Scott Schoeneweis and Leo Rosales both came in at 29%, and the brevity of the former's appearances were likely a factor. From there, things only get worse, all the way up to Blaine Boyer (8 of 17 inherited runners scored, 47%) and Daniel Schlereth (7 of 12, 58%). Obviously, while we are talking small sample size here, and not all inherited runners are created equal, the overall numbers are significant enough to indicate a problem.

The Arizona bullpen: anti-clutch in action
A major driving factor in a pitcher's ERA will be how they perform with runners in scoring position - as we saw with Doug Davis this year, you can get away with allowing a lot of base-runners, as long as you don't let them get past third-base. This was something our bullpen didn't do last season. The Diamondbacks' OPS for their relievers across all situations in 2009 was .734: they can be divided into three groups by their performance with runners in scoring position (min. 30 such PAs):

    Significantly better: Leo Rosales (.653), Tony Peña (.655), Esmerling Vasquez (.686)
    There or thereabouts: Chad Qualls (.728), Juan Gutierrez (.730),
    Significantly worse: Blaine Boyer (.779), Jon Rauch (.853), Clay Zavada (.959), Scott Schoeneweis (1.078), Daniel Schlereth (1.192)

This would explain the high ERA; not just the raw number of pitchers, but the disparity. We had four relievers whose OPS was 100 points or more worse than bullpen average, when they had runners in scoring position, compared to none who were that much better. Avoiding such a skewed result in 2010 will certainly help. Harder to say whether it's something that can be addressed, or is just a question of waiting for regression to the mean.

What might have been
The front-office got criticism for letting Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz walk at the end of 2008, and it's fair to say that the arms they brought to Arizona instead, Schoeneweis and Tom Gordon, were dismal failures. Admittedly, the former's problema could in no way have been foreseen, and completely derailed the year. Before his wife's death, Scott had an ERA of 2.53; after, it exploded to 10.80. But in the final analysis, he is just another in a long line of disappointing LOOGY's brought in by the team: see also Randy Choate, Mike Myers, Eddie Oropesa, etc. Since Myers in 2002, no free-agent southpaw reliever has had an ERA+ above 100 for Arizona.

Gordon was a low-risk roll of the die, but even at that, it must have been disappointing to get no more than 1.2 innings and a 21.60 ERA from the veteran. He only cost $600K, but one assumes the budget included the maximum Gordon may have earned, $3m. Between the price of him and Schoeneweis ($2m), the team could certainly have done better. Looing at the players we let go, Juan Cruz signed a two-year, $6m contract with the Royals, but had an ERA of 5.72, with a strikeout rate almost cut in half (from 12.4 K/9 to 6.4). Allowing Cruz to walk now seems wise, and Kansas City will be hoping for much better in 2010.

At first glance, Brandon Lyon was excellent with the Tigers, holding opponents to a .205 average and posting a 2.86 ERA, that seemed to justify fully his $4m deal, and likely sets him up for a big pay-day this winter. However, Lyon did have a freakishly-low BABIP of .229, leading to a FIP above four - the difference put him in the top 20 among major-league relievers. Still, signing him for $4m and getting anything like his actual performance would have been a much better deal for Arizona than Gordon and Schoeneweis.

2010?
From statements so far, it does appear that one or more arms will be added to the bullpen in the off-season. We'll be discussing this in more detail in due course, but I imagine the core is alreay present, in Qualls, Gutierrez, Vasquez and Zavada. Boyer and Schlereth would also seem to have a potential role, though use of the latter in high-leverage situations still concerns me. I still wouldn't mind us spending $5 million or so of the estimated $28m available on a couple of decent arms: I think "reliable" is the key-word there. Rather than us taking a risk on anyone like Gordon, we want someone who we know will contribute.

The last installment of this series will follow, probably next Monday. There, we'll be looking at defense and base-running, and their impact on the team's performance last season.

Diamondbacks 7, Padres 4: Win One for the Buckner

DbacksSkins — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:24:26 -0000

More photos » by AARON J. LATHAM - AP

Chad Tracy watches what might be his last home run at Chase Field.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks Professional Base Ball Club gathered at a small field in the warehouse district of downtown Phoenix today for a friendly with the San Diego Padres Professional Base Ball Club. Several spectators came out to watch the match, as it was the Club's final outing in Arizona until early next year. Throwing on behalf of the Arizona side was a young fellow named William Buckner, and for the San Diego side, an immigrant gentleman by the name of Edward Mujica. Hitting "home runs", an exciting happenstance wherein a batter hits a ball completely out of the field of play, were a down-home North Carolina boy named Chad Tracy as well as a Mexican-American fellow named Adrian Gonzalez. Registering a win for our dear old home side was Buckner, while Mujica notched his 5th loss of the year for San Diego. Details of this jovial event can be found by turning to the athletics page of this news paper.

Record: 68-88. Pace: 71-91. Change on last season: -9

Billy Buckner pitched seven innings of three hit baseball to get the win, but narrowly missed tossing his second quality start at home this season. Buckner was perfect the first time through the order, but the first three batters in the Padres lineup all scored before Buckner recorded an out the second time through, on a walk to Tony Gwynn, a David Eckstein single severely misplayed by Justin Upton, and Adrian Gonzalez's 40th home run of the season, a pool shot. Buckner quickly settled down to get the next nine batters in order, but a leadoff walk to Chase Headley to start the 7th inning scored on a double by Drew Macias to rob Buckner's chances at a QS. However, Buckner struck out Henry Blanco and Everth Cabrera to end the inning and leave with the lead. Billy fell one short of his career high with 7 strikeouts and came within one out of his longest career outing, going 7 innings. He allowed only 3 hits and 2 walks, but 4 of those 5 baserunners came around to score.

Esmerling Vasquez came on to pitch the 8th, and after going 3-0 on Luis Durango, Mark Reynolds came out to the mound to talk to Vasquez. Whatever he said must have worked, because he came back to strike out Durango and followed with a groundout by Gwynn. Eckstein was able to squirt a ground ball through the infield, and after LOOGY Scott Schoeneweis failed to retire Adrian Gonzalez, AJ Hinch brought in Juan Gutierrez for a 4-out save. Non-closer Gutierrez immediately struck out Chase Headley to end the dreaded 8th inning without a run, and pitched around singles by Blanco and Cabrera in the 9th to get his 8th save of the year and grab saves in consecutive games for the first time since the 15th of this month, and only his second 1+ inning save of the season; his only other coming on May 26th against these same Padres in 5 outs.

On the offensive side of the game, Chad Tracy was the star, coming a triple away from the cycle in his probable final Dbacks home game, scoring two and driving in himself on the homer. Batting behind Tracy, Augie Ojeda, who very well might have played in HIS last Dbacks home game, also had three hits with two doubles, driving in three and scoring two. No other Diamondback had more than a single hit, although only Reynolds went ohfer among the starters. Justin Upton reached 3x on a single and two walks. Stephen Drew went 1-5 but made it count, driving in two runs on a double in the bottom of the 6th to give the Dbacks the lead.

Both teams were scoreless until the 4th inning. Tracy and Augie hit back to back doubles and Buckner helped himself out with a single to make the score 3-2 in favor of the visitor, while Chad's solo homer to the pool area in the bottom of the 6th tied the game. The 3rd video review of the homestand confirmed the homer, after a fan apparently reached up above Tony Gwynn's glove. Gwynn argued for interference, but the crew chief disagreed upon video review. Augie singled and Chris Young walked in front of Droo, who gave the home team a lead they wouldn't relinquish. Our Venezuelan dynamic duo of Miguel Montero and Gerardo Parra both singled to allow Augie to drive in the final two runs of the game, capping the scoring at 7-4 in favor of the good guys.

[Click to enlarge at fangraphs.com]
Badass of the Day: Augie Ojeda, +25.4%
Also mavericky: Stephen Drew, +18.4%; Chad Tracy, +15.9%
Boarding the bus to Reno: Mark Reynolds, -11.3%

It was a quick game, just 2 hours and 33 minutes, and finished our season series with San Diego at a satisfying 11-7 in favor of the Snakes. Attendance was just over 30k souls for the last home game of the season, down nine thousand from Mark Reynolds Night but still third highest for a Sunday home game this season and the highest since August 16th against the Dodgers.

A Wolf-like 359 comments in the gameday thread, led by soco, the only poster to break triple digits, followed by me and hotclaws. Posters included Azreous, soco, emilylovesthedbacks, hotclaws, DbacksSkins, Wailord, mrs snakepit, NASCARbernet, kishi, katers, and a cameo appearance by ChrisHansen. Now, all of you should go watch the home team Arizona Cardinals beat AJforAZ's Indianapolis Colts on national TV!

[Update: audio clippage. At the moment, from AJ Hinch talking before the game, reviewing the "disappointing" 2009 season, but saying he believes we can contend next season.]

Audio courtesy of KTAR 620

Diamondbacks 5, Padres 6: J-Up in Smoke

Azreous — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 23:33:30 -0000

More photos » by Chris Park - AP

Arizona Diamondbacks 2B Augie Ojeda looks confused after his fifth inning triple, his first career hit in 35 at-bats at Petco Park. Yes, Augie. You get to run the bases now.

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Record: 64-83. Pace: 71-91. Change on last season: -9

As a baseball fan, aren't these the kind of September games you root for? Afternoon baseball between two teams fighting for superiority in their division, with the road team going for a series sweep against the team with a one-game lead on them.

All right, all right. By superiority I mean "worst superiority," as the Diamondbacks and Padres battled each other in their race for the cellar. Today's matchup featured Doug Davis against little-known Edward Mujica. Davis was looking to overcome a terrible start his last time out, and Mujica was looking to maybe make it into the fifth inning or something. But it was a certain young outfielder who stole the show, at least until an epic collapse in the ninth inning when the D-backs were just two strikes from a victory. And then...some things happened. But those and other descriptions...

...are after the jump.

From the start, this looked like standard D-backs fare. They spent the better part of the first four innings against a young, unheralded pitcher getting slapped around. Any significant threats the offense managed to mount were erased quickly: a two-out Justin Upton double in the first, a leadoff single by Upton in the fourth (popout, strikeout, caught stealing), etc. The Diamondbacks (and the Padres, for that matter) weren't helped much by a strike zone that could be described as sporadic at best, or spasmodic at worst.

Meanwhile, Doug Davis was pulling his usual vanishing act, continuing his quest to replace Houdini (or Criss Angel for you damn youngsters) as the world's top illusionist. He worked around a leadoff single in the first by striking out a couple of batters. He danced around danger in the second, when his own error put runners on second and third with two out. The slew of baserunners caught up to him in the third, though, when Everth Cabrera and Tony Gwynn reached on consecutive hits. After a flyout advanced Cabrera to third, he scored on a routine grounder by Chase Headley to make it 1-0 Padres.

The Diamondbacks finally broke through against Mujica in the fifth to take the lead. Brandon Allen slapped a base hit to right with one out, and scored on an Augie Ojeda triple (it should be noted that it was Augie's first-ever career hit at Petco Park; he'd been 0-for-34 to that point) that probably raised his slugging about 900 points. With one out and a runner at third, Davis did what he usually does when I recap his starts and he's up with RISP -- fail miserably. But Chris Young stepped up and delivered a huge two-out double to plate Ojeda and give the Diamondbacks a 2-0 lead. That chased Mujica after just 73 pitches, right about where he was supposed to be. Arizona tacked on one more run in the sixth after Upton (notice a trend?) tripled to start off the inning, and scored on Miguel Montero's little groundout that Webb -- no, not that one -- threw away.

Davis continued his roller coaster ride by walking the leadoff man in each of his next three innings. The first two times he got away unscathed (a bunt moved the runner over in the fourth, but he got two quick outs to get out of it, and a double play erased the leadoff man in the fifth), but again he got caught trying to get through the sixth. After a free pass to Henry Blanco, Davis plunked Macias with a pitch, and Durango reached on what appeared to be an attempt at a sac bunt. Just like that, bases loaded and nobody out. This time, Davis gave up a base knock to left that was hit sharply enough to only score one run, and though he got Cabrera to groundout into a force at home, Gwynn slapped a sac fly into right that even Upton couldn't do enough with to keep the tying run from scoring.

With a fresh start for both teams and just three innings to go, the Diamondbacks answered back in a hurry, starting with the top of the order. Young reached on an error by Cabrera, and Stephen Drew followed him with a base on balls. Justin "F'in" Upton drove in the go-ahead run with an opposite-field base hit, his fourth of the game. After Montero reached on a little base hit up the middle, Reynolds grounded out deep enough to score Drew from third, and it was 5-3 Arizona just like that.

Of course, the problem with insurance runs is that sometimes you can't afford enough insurance (insert health care debate joke here). After a couple of uneventful frames, Esmerling Vasquez came in to close things out in the ninth with a two-run lead. Nerves were frayed a bit after a leadoff single, but he got two pretty quick outs from the 3-4 hitters (granted, the Padres' 3-4 hitters) and it looked like things were under control. And then Adrian Gonzalez happened. He roped an 0-1 fastball down the opposite-field line for a two-run shot that tied up the game and gave the Fangraph a small heart attack.

From there, it seemed like our fate was inevitable. The D-backs went down in order in the top of the 10th, and Yusmeiro Petit was brought in for the bottom half -- no, I don't understand it either. Petit labored through just three hitters -- a leadoff single, a 50-pitch at-bat by David Eckstein that ended in a flyout, a stolen base, and a base hit that finally ended it. And yet, I felt nothing. Such are the doldrums of 20-games-under-.500 September baseball.

Master of his Domain: Justin Upton, +29.3%
Honorable Mention: Chris Young, +17.8%
God-Emperor of Suck: Esmerling Vasquez, -46.9%
God-Co-Emperor of Suck: Yusmeiro Petit, -35.7%
Dishonorable Mention: Doug Davis (hitting), -15.2%; Gerardo Parra, -11.4%

This is one of the cases where the Fangraph (and the contributions of those involved) makes perfect sense. Upton was a perfect 5-5 on the day, just a homer short of the cycle. Young .drove in the go-ahead run at the time and had another solid game. Meanwhile, Vasquez's spot should come as a surprise to no one, and Petit -- well, he's Petit. End of story.

For the Diamondbacks, Upton's success has already been well documented. Young had a couple of hits and a walk; Allen added a couple of walks and a hit. Ojeda finally broke out of his slump at Petco and added a free pass of his own. It should also be noted that although Reynolds was 0-for-5 with 4 Ks (reaching the 200 strikeout plateau), he did manage to drive in a run and steal his 24th bag of the year. He's on the cusp of the 45-25 club, which is pretty exclusive territory. Zavada and Rosales each picked up holds for solid work in the innings before Vasquez's meltdown, and Schoeneweis lowered his ERA 11 points for retiring the one batter he faced.

A happenin' GameDay Thread for an afternoon game, although it didn't start out looking that way (and with no local TV coverage, who can blame people?). Skins led the way with just short of a brazillion jinxing comments (259); no one else reached triple digits. Roll Call: soco, sayheyupton, snakecharmer, DbacksSkins, emilylovesthedbacks, kishi, Jim McLennan, mrssoco, pygalgia, txzona, katers, SaveUsY2J, hotclaws, AJforAZ, Wailord, IHateSouthBend, Azreous, venomfan, dima1109, Muu, jazzbo13. Total Users: 21. Total Posts: 742.

It's an off day tomorrow, which should give ample time to drink away this loss. Or at least forget about through other more natural means (like head trauma?). Next up, it's a three-game set at home against the Colorado Rockies; maybe this awful loss is just to make us winning the weekend series that much more heart-breaking for them. Yeah, that's it.

August Rush: the Diamondbacks Heroes and Villains

Jim McLennan — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 20:06:05 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Yusmeiro Petit is disappointed to be reminded by Alex Romero of exactly what his spot in the rotation is - near no-hitter or not.

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I kinda wanted us to have a losing record, simply so I could use the title The Wails of August, but Monday night's comeback ruined that. Curse you, Rusty Ryal. Instead, while it took a late burst to do it, in the shape of a five-game streak, the Diamondbacks posted their second consecutive winning month, going 15-14 in August, to follow up July's record of 14-12. That's not to be under-estimated, because Arizona hadn't enjoyed back-to-back months above .500 since the end of 2007. It was a pretty streaky month: we had our worst losing run of the year, when we dropped seven straight, but also contained a couple of five-game winning spells. [Contrast April, where our longest streak in either direction was only three]

After the break, we'll drill down a bit, to both team and individual performances in pitching and hitting, and see who starred in August and who should be barred.

This was a good month offensively, with the team enjoying their best OPS of the year to date, reaching .791. That was an sOPS+ of 105, ranking them fourth in the National League. We trailed only the Marlins in hits and the Phillies in home-runs - I was amused to note that, in August, the entire Mets roster had only three more home-runs than Reynolds! Of course, we also had more K's than any team bar the Rockies, and our BABIP of .321 was a little above league-average, .306, so a certain element of luck may have been involved.

On the pitching side, the Diamondbacks set right in the middle of the pack, a 4.32 ERA ranking them eighth, and an sOPS+ of 94 was good for seventh. However, this did conceal a significant split between the starters and the bullpen. Despite a 12-9 record, the rotation's ERA was 4.55, up sharply on July's figure of 3.72. The relief corps, on the other hand, had a 3.79 ERA, only fractionally higher on last month's figure of 3.66. This continued their excellent second-half form: since the break, their ERA is 3.47, third-best in the league. We'll see how that is impacted by the loss of Qualls for the rest of the season.

Heroes

Miguel Montero - .326/.367/.543, 3 HR, 18 RBI

Montero continues to produce at a very high level for the position. Among the ninteeen major-league catchers with 60+ at-bats, only Joe Mauer had a better August OPS - no shame being second to him. Montero had eleven doubles in the month, easily the most on the team, and was tied for the lead in extra-base hits with 14. One issue: he has forgotten how to take a walk, with only one in 78 PAs, from July 27-August 22.
Yusmeiro Petit - 28 IP, 27 H, 8 BB, 20 K, 3.54 ERA

August started for Petit with him becoming the Arizona pitcher to come closest to a no-hitter since the Big Unit's perfect game, and he returned the best ERA of anyone in the rotation over the month. The reason is largely due to his HR/9 rate dropping to 1.29, well below his career average of 1.95, and closer to NL average, 1.01. When he keeps the ball in the park, Petit is a decent-plus pitcher.
Mark Reynolds - 277/.370/.660 (1.030 OPS), 11 HR, 21 RBI

It's the first time Special K has had an OPS over a thousand for a full month, and it increased for the sixth straight month. He also had a new career high in home-runs; basically, the difference from July was largely that three hits left the park instead of hitting off the wall for doubles. Oh, and he led the team in stolen-bases, going 4-0 there. Mark is currently on pace to hit 49 homers and steal 27 bases by the end of the year.
Ryan Roberts - .352/.443/.560 (1.004 OPS), 4 HR, 12 RBI

Anyone who wants the 2010 second-base position e.g. Rusty Ryal, Tony Abreu, will have to go through Ryan Roberts to get there. He's staking his claim with a blistering second-half, batting .331 in 137 PAs after the break, mostly in the leadoff spot, and better still since the trade of Felipe Lopez left Roberts as the de facto starter at the position. It's a remarkable turnaround from June, where he hit only .098.
The B-bullpen [Esmerling Vasquez, Blaine Boyer, Juan Gutierrez] - 30.2 IP, 25 H, 10 BB, 19 K, 1.76 ERA

These three get a communal nomination; Vasquez in particular had an excellent month, allowing one run in 10.2 innings of work, for a 0.84 ERA. The trio don't strike out a lot of opposing hitters, with a K/9 of only 5.58, but they didn't allow mant hits either - their WHIP is 1.14. It's a big turn-around from earlier, in the season when their appearance in a game was largely taken as the waving of a white flag.

Villains

Stephen Drew - .229/.284/.419 (.793 OPS), 4 HR, 16 RBI

The much-anticipated second-half surge by Drew pretty much withered and died on the vine in August, though in his defense, a BABIP of only .225 was a significant factor in his disappointing month. While not as bad as April and May, Drew's struggles against left-handers were particularly obvious - in 32 PAs last month, he went 2-for-31 with one walk, and is now hitting only .191 this season against them.
Dan Haren - 40 IP, 42 H, 7 BB, 34 K, 22 ER, 4.95 ERA

The second-half slump was not unexpected for Haren, having been a feature of most seasons in his career. However, it's been much more pronounced in 2009, albeit magnified by the brilliance of his outings before the break. Some is BABIP regressing to the mean, but his walk-rate has jumped up, from 1.11/9 IP in the first half to 1.84 now. Same for home-runs, which have increased from 0.84/9 IP to 1.55.
Chad Qualls - 8.1 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 11 K, 5 ER, 5.40 ERA

Our closer will certainly not look back kindly on August, ending as it did with him writhing on the ground in pain. But, even putting that aside, it was not a month to remember. He only had six save opportunities. Maybe it was ring-rust; he only got in to nine games, but had just one 'clean' full inning. The nadir was obvious: the three-run pinch-hit homer which cost us the game in San Francisco last week.
Max Scherzer - 32 IP, 39 H, 11 BB, 39 K, 23 ER 6.47 ERA

Max's tank looks basically to have reached empty: this is something of a surprise, as he has only just passed his innings pitched last year [including the AFL], but he had only one quality start in six August attempts. While the strikeouts still happen in quantity - 39 is a career high for him - opponents hit .300 off Scherzer last month. Still, better for him to struggle in a year where we aren't in a pennant race.
Chad Tracy - .262/.304/.308 (.612 OPS), 0 HR, 5 RBI

Grim factoid: In the second half, Tracy has a lower slugging percentage than Alex Romero or Augie Ojeda, and sadly, the chances of the Diamondbacks wanting to exercise their 2010 option for Chad appear to be getting slimmer. Since the start of 2008, his OPS+ is only 76, and that isn't worth $7m. August was his first full month (60+ AB) without a single HR in three years.

Poll

Who was the D-backs' player of the month for August?

Miguel Montero

43 votes

Yusmeiro Petit

4 votes

Mark Reynolds

52 votes

Ryan Roberts

12 votes

The B-Bullpen

16 votes

127 votes | Poll has closed

Diamondbacks Mid-Term Report Card

Jim McLennan — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 01:34:39 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Clay Zavada - surely a lock for Most Valuable Mustache of 2009.

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As we head towards the second-half of the season, it seems like a good time to review the major players in the first half of the season and grade them according to their performance. A couple of things to note before we go into the 25 chosen ones: I'm grading on a curve, with a C basically meaning they performed at league average for their position. More recent performances are also weighted more heavily, and adjustments then made for intangibles such as expectations, salary, etc. - even at the same position, we expect more out of Drew than Ojeda, say.

If the overall marks seem somewhat high, this is because a number of players, some of whom had significant impact on team performance, could not be assigned grades. I'm being somewhat generous there, since in certain educational establishments, these would be automatic F's...

Sick notes: Conor Jackson, Brandon Webb.
Incomplete: Bryan Augenstein, Blaine Boyer, Alex Romero, Doug Slaten, Josh Whitesell.
Expelled: Tony Clark, Josh Wilson.
Transferred to another school district: Tony Peña

Basic stats for position players are OPS+ and UZR (combined across positions if necessary); for pitchers, I'm using ERA+ and WHIP. Follow me after the jump for the report-card - you'll see why it took a little longer than I thought to produce! And I expect to see it back on my desk, signed by the players' parents, by Monday morning, or else some of you will be staying after school...

Top of the class
Dan Haren, A+, 226 ERA+, 0.808 WHIP
As noted previously, Haren had one of the best first-halfs in franchise history, posting an astonishing ERA of 2.01 and an even-better WHIP. He could easily have had thirteen or fourteen victories by this stage. Yes, the BABIP is freakishly-low, and we should probably expect some regression going forward. However, there's little evidence he'll stop being among the best pitchers in the National League.

Dean's list
Justin Upton, A, 134 OPS+, UZR 8.8
Expectations were high for J-Up coming in to 2009, but I think it's safe to say that he has surpassed them all, with one of the best seasons in recent history by a player his age [only A-Rod, Griffey and Pujols have posted a better OPS+ since 1981]. And look at that UZR: while he still makes too many silly error, the metric ranks him the second-best fielder on the roster.

Doug Davis, A-, 133 ERA+, 1.440 WHIP
Perhaps the most unexpected pleasant surprise of the season is DD, whom we thought would return his usual ERA in the mid-fours. Heck, no - and the weird thing is, his BABIP is .303, so it's not as if he has been 'lucky'. Indeed, quite the opposite as far as his 4-9 W-L record goes: that's the lowest Win % of any pitcher in the past century with such a good ERA+ [since Ned Garvin, 5-16 with a 158 ERA+ in 1904]

Gold stars
Mark Reynolds, B+, 125 OPS+, -5.5 UZR
Special K certainly stepped up his production on both sides of his nickname, tying for second in the majors for home-runs (24), but leading all players in strikeouts (123) and on pace to break his previous all-time record by 20. However, his output overall was excellent and, despite ongoing issues with his glove, he also deserves credit for speaking up and apparently becoming a clubhouse leader to many.

Max Scherzer, B+, 124 ERA+, 1.349 WHIP
Question-marks about Max's stamina seem largely to have been answered, with Scherzer going six or more innings in the majority (ten of 17) of his appearances. His strikeout rate is down a little compared to last season, but hard to complain when it's still more than a batter per inning. Perhaps most encouraging, third-time through the lineup, batters hit .221 of Scherzer, though this is BABIP-assisted.

Solid performances
Clay Zavada, B, 269 ERA+, 1.500 WHIP
A great story, Zavada's fairy-tale reached its "happy ever after" on May 21 when he made his major-league debut. But wait! There's more! He then went on to post the longest scoreless streak to open a career in franchise history. While he's doubtlessly overachieving tremendously - I don't expect him to post anything close to a 1.69 ERA in the second-half - he's a joy to watch, pitching or not.

Gerardo Parra, B-, 94 OPS+, 1.1 UZR
Called up from Double-A due to the Jackson and Byrnes injuries, he's performed pretty well. He has the best BA of any NL rookie with 200+ PAs, and trails only Colby Rasmus of the Cardinals in OPS. So far, he's certainly among the best outfielders his age (he only turned 22 in May) regularly playing the majors this year. If he could learn to hit lefties (.178 BA), he'd be golden.

Felipe Lopez, B-, 101 OPS+, 3.8 UZR
Lopez is like the super-brainy kid who cruises through tests without actually bothering to try. He always gives the impression he could do better, but really, what's the point? However, his production is pretty close to that of Orlando Hudson (OPS+ 106) and Lopez's defense - a cause for concern pre-season - is actually much better (O-Dawg's UZR is -5.3). Still, a transfer to another district may happen soon.

Stephen Drew, C+, 98 OPS+, -0.6 UZR
I'm tempted to append "Must try harder" to the grade, since great things were expected after his 2008 season (110 OPS+). He hasn't lived up to that, though I wonder if injury played a part, as he has been better since coming back off the DL (OPS .795 vs. .666). We'll be hoping for the same second-half explosion we saw last year: his current OPS is almost the same as at this point in 2008.

Middle of the pack
Jon Rauch, C+, 105 ERA+, 1.387 WHIP
The archetypal bad kid appears to have turned over a new leaf, after starting off the year looking destined for an F. From a 9.00 ERA on May 4, he has slashed that figure in half, thanks to a 2.12 ERA over 17.1 innings since the start of June. Of course, he still has a poor reputation and his previous crimes and misdemeanors will not easily be forgotten. yet there's been more good than bad from him.

Scott Schoeneweis, C, 84 ERA+, 1.600 WHIP
The dog ate Scott's homework. Actually, there are far better excuses which should be applied in mitigation of his performance. One, we needn't go into. However, his stats would be a lot better if he faced strictly left-handers: their OPS against him is .686; right-handed batters post a 1.059 OPS. It's been more or less like that since 2007, so why he ever sees righties, beats me.

Jon Garland, C, 100 ERA+, 1.500 WHIP
When he's good, he's very good, but when he's bad... In 18 appearances, he's allowed one earned run or less seven times, but has also had four games allowing six or more earned runs. Not much middle ground for Jon, though averaging over six innings per start is pretty good. Guess his performance is much in line with what we expected, given a career ERA+ of 103.

Miguel Montero, C, 94 OPS+, N/A UZR
He's like the kid who gets a pass because his brother's the quarterback, then suddenly discovers that cuts no ice with the SATs: as our backup, Montero had a not-exactly great line of 225/344/.353, teetering on the edge of a failing grade. Maybe Miggy just needed a challenge, because he has surged at the plate since Snyder went down, pulling him up to average. Keep up the improvement, please.

Chad Qualls, C, 125 ERA+, 1.179 WHIP
Normally, that good an ERA would deserve a higher mark. But since May 25th, he has blown three saves in eight chances, and the only warm feeling we get when he enters the game is if he makes us lose control of our bladders. He has fallen in with a bad crowd - that'd be the rest of the bullpen - and is staying out late and skipping classes. Worrying signs for a parent: he's better than this.

Needs improvement
Chris Snyder, C-, 90 OPS+, N/A UZR
General wisdom is Snyder is a better game-caller than Montero. Yet with Montero/Garland this year, opponents have a .676 OPS, much less than Snyder/Garland (.922). Maybe Chase Field isn't the problem? [Haren pitches better with Snyder, Davis is catcher-neutral, and Scherzer also seems to prefer Miggy] At the plate, Snyder still walks a lot, but a .224 average is his worst since 2005.

Esmerling Vasquez, D+, 93 ERA+, 1.618 WHIP
Interesting reverse split for the young right-hander: lefties hit .200 off him, while righties hit .343, the opposite of what we would have expected, though all three home-runs allowed were by southpaws. However, it's could well just be BABIP, where his split is .426/.200, so I'd expect things to even out over time. Too many walks - 15 in 29.2 innings - doesn't help.

Leo Rosales, D+, 89 ERA+, 1.189 WHIP
Weird numbers for Rosales: opponents hit .227 with only one homer,. Basically, he had one bad inning, where he walked four of five batters, leading to three earned runs - outside of that, his ERA was 3.78, including 3.1 hitless frames in the 18-inning marathon against the Padres. While that's more an explanation than anything else, might he be worth another shot?

Juan Gutierrez, D, 90 ERA+, 1.594 WHIP
Turned 26 yesterday, and while his raw 'stuff' continues to be there (45 K's in 42.2 IP), his ability to control it isn't (21 BB). He has also been a fly-ball pitcher: his GO/AO ratio is the worst on the team at 0.62 - league average is 1.10 - as is a 24% line-drive percentage. That's not generally a sign of success at Chase, but he has somehow kept the ball in the park, with just one homer this season. Could go either way.

Augie Ojeda, D, 56 OPS+, 1.9 UZR
While we can't fault Augie's effort, and some aspects of his game, such as his defense, are credible enough, the truth is he has been badly overmatched at the plate this season. His career OPS+ is only 63 and he has fallen short of that, hitting only .221 with a single home-run. At age 34, I've a feeling the next few months could be Augie's last hurrah on a major-league roster.

Ryan Roberts, D-, 76 OPS+, 1.0 UZR
I don't know what Roberts had for breakfast on May 9, but whatever it was, worked. From then through June 2, he was on fire, hitting .438 (21-for-48). Then, as soon as it began, it ended, and he went 3-for-40 before being called to the principal's office and told he was being held back a grade. It was nice while it lasted, but overall, you could see why he still qualified as a rookie at age 28.

Fail
Chad Tracy, F, 72 OPS+, -1.5 UZR
Tracy has not been the same man after coming back from knee surgery last May. Prior to it, his career OPS+ was 105 - since then, it's 79. The odds of the team picking up the $7m option for next season look pretty slim, especially as he's strictly platoon fodder (career OPS vs. LHP: .619). Chalk up another victim to the Curse of the Contract Extension: see also the next two 'scholars'.

Chris Young, F, 68 OPS+, -2.9 UZR
Despite recent signs of life - his OBP is .390 since June 1 - the season's batting average still sits resolutely beneath the Uecker line. Since the game was integrated in 1947, only five qualifying players have been sub-.200 over a full season (most recently Rob Deer, who hit .179 in 1991); we don't want CY to be #6. UZR thinks his defense has fallen off this year too - he was +0.5 in 2008.

Eric Byrnes, F, 63 OPS+, 10.7 UZR
No, that UZR is no mistake: by it, he's the best fielder on the team. However, it's almost irrelevant when his OPS+ barely beats out Ojeda, and Eric earnd almost $11m more [autograph shows and TV residuals not included]. That ranks Byrnes 235th among the 241 major-leaguers with 200 PAs this year, and his 22% infield fly rate would be 4th among qualifying hitters, if he had enough playing time.

Billy Buckner, F, 53 ERA+, 1.770 WHIP
Yusmeiro Petit, F, 57 OPS+, 1.758 WHIP
We'll give the third member of the Triple-Headed Beast of Webb Replacement Suck, Bryan Augenstein, a pass - he was called up from Double-A, so his struggle was no surprise. No such excuse for these two: the team went 3-11 in their fourteen combined starts. We would probably have had better results asking Webb to pitch left-handed. Get well soon, Brandon. Please...

Poll

Who was our MVP in the first half?

Doug Davis

3 votes

Dan Haren

257 votes

Mark Reynolds

36 votes

Max Scherzer

2 votes

Justin Upton

18 votes

316 votes | Poll has closed

Marlins 8, Diamondbacks 1: Davis Gets Phished

DbacksSkins — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 23:28:29 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Don't worry, Doug. We feel it too.

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Record: 38-51 Pace: 69-93 Change on last season: -6

Ho hum. Just in case we were getting a collective big head from winning 7 of 8 going into the All-Star Break, the baseball gods knocked us down a rung today. The Arizona Diamondbacks, in fairly ignominious fashion, completed the official first half of the season today, dropping the series finale versus the Marlins 8-1. 1 run? 1?? Really?? After we scored 20 runs in the previous games in the series? Yep. Most notably, the offense and defense regressed to April 2009 levels, rather than the improved edition we've been seeing lately.

Follow me after the jump for all the ~~exciting~~ gory details!

This one was as good as over almost before it started. Doug Davis, who came into the game with a sparkling 3.13 ERA, gave up 5 runs in only 4 innings, including 3 in the top of the 1st, putting the Marlins squarely in the driver's seat. To be fair, he was also let down by his defense, although no errors were given. Several balls rolled into the outfield that probably could have been fielded and turned into outs in a regression to the sloppy style of baseball that we sorta thought we had gotten over, at least since Reynolds' rant. It took Doug a whopping 99 pitches to get through only 4 innings, although he did hold the Marlins scoreless in the 2nd and 3rd, before giving up a two run blast to Jeremy Hermida in the 4th off the right field foul pole. 3 walks in 4 innings didn't help, either, despite an umpire with a strike zone roughly the size and shape of Nevada -- at least for the Marlins' pitchers, for whom everything low and inside was called a strike. To be fair, Marlins All Star Josh Johnson DID have a fairly impressive game, alternating between the inside and outside corners of the plate and showing why he's their ace. Perhaps today's game was just an example of what might have happened last night to Jon Garland, had the Dbacks not rolled up three double plays behind him. Neither Chad Tracy nor Davis were assessed an error later, when Tracy fielded a routine grounder and tossed to Davis, slightly down the line, who flat-out missed the bag with the side of his foot. Although it went as a hit, it's a perfect example of the kind of shoddy plays made by the infielders today.

After getting 13 extra-base hits during the previous 3 games, the offense looked punchless once again as it was held to 9 scattered one-baggers. The team went a woeful 1-for-6 w/ RISP, scoring their 1 run in the 7th. Until that point, no Dbacks hitter had even reached 3rd base. But, it didn't HAVE to be like that. Felipe Lopez led off the bottom of the first with a single, but was caught stealing second by about 5 feet, on an 0-2 pitch. As Grace noted, pitchers often toss a throwaway fastball on 0-2, so it was almost like a pitchout. Naturally, on the very next pitch, Stephen Drew drove a single into right field that very well might have scored Flip, had he been on second. In the 7th, Augie Ojeda reached on a fielder's choice, before going to 2nd on a Lopez groundout and finally scoring to break up the shutout on Drew's RBI single. For the game, Drew went 3-5, while Lopez was on base four times on two hits and two walks. Chad Tracy also had two hits, while Gerardo Parra reached once on a walk and Alex Romero had a pinch single. Tony Clark, who has apparently played his last game as a Diamondback, saw his last AB w/ the Dbacks: naturally, it was a pinch strikeout for Leo Rosales in the 5th. Our 3 and 4 hitters struggled again; Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton combining to go 1-8 with 6 strikeouts and 8 men left on base. Upton smacked a single into left field in his last game before his first All Star Game.

The bullpen performed... credibly, I suppose, going 5 innings and allowing only a single earned run, by Esmerling Vasquez. Clay Zavada allowed two unearned runs in the Dreaded Eighth Inning© after a sharp grounder bounced about 20 feet straight up off of Reynolds' glove and into left field. Zavada's ERA dropped to 1.69. Jon Rauch, Juan Gutierrez and Leo Rosales all pitched scoreless innings; Rauch continues to be essentially our best reliever lately. Gutierrez helped himself out with an impressively fast move to first, picking off former Dback Emilio Bonifacio.

Badass of the day: Stephen Drew, +2.3%

Boarding the bus to Reno: Doug Davis, -25.9%

It's a testament to how quickly the game got out of hand that Drew led all players with a scant 2.3 WPA. Chad Tracy, Gerardo Parra, Juan Gutierrez and Leo Rosales were also in the black, while Alex Romero and Jon Rauch managed to add exactly nothing either way (0.0%). Everyone else was in the red as far as WPA is concerned.

20 posters in the Gameday thread today, adding up to 366 total comments. I led, and was the only poster in triple digits, with unnamedDBacksfan narrowly catching marionette for second place. Posters included sayheyupton, DyeLongJustice, (in his first Gameday thread since joining the 'Pit) snakecharmer, Giannaros, DbacksSkins, hotclaws, unnamedDBacksfan, marionette, emilylovesthedbacks, NotGuilty, 4 Corners Fan, Wailord, Muu, pierzynskirules, Turambar, BattleMoses, Jim McLennan, Tim Weiss, katers, and soco.

No game tomorrow, for obvious reasons. I'm assuming Jim will have a Gameday Thread posted for the All Star Game, so I'll see you there. The Dbacks head next to St. Louis -- Dan Haren and Justin Upton will be there first, as All Stars, and the rest of the team will join them for a series against the Cardinals to start the official second half of the season.

Let's hope it goes a little better than the first half.

Diamondbacks 8, Rangers 2: Max Power

DbacksSkins — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 10:07:28 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

"Lazy, eh? Lazy, am I?? I'LL SHOW YOU LAZY...."

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Is it just me, or does it seem like I'm always recapping Max Scherzer's games? Jim McLennan is on assignment, so I'm recapping tonight's game. To the other authors and editors, I have a small question -- can you think of a game you were assigned to recap where, frankly, the team's performance left you without much to say?

The Diamondbacks played a game like that tonight, but in the opposite fashion to the way this phenomenon usually happens. Max Scherzer pitched 6 innings of 2 run ball with just 1 walk and 7 Ks, Justin Upton had a 2 run homer in the bottom of the first, Upton and Felipe Lopez drove in 3 runs each, both Lopez and Stephen Drew had 3 hit games, and the bullpen pitched 3 shutout innings. Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds, playing at first base tonight, had highlight-reel defensive plays, and the Dbacks may have even gotten a little bit of help from the umpires.

What more could we need? Well, perhaps slightly better baserunning, as Reynolds was caught stealing in the 1st and remains mired on his 13th stolen base. Yet, even in this aspect, the Diamondbacks found a way to impress: Flip Lopez stretched a line drive into a triple, and subsequently came home to score on a catching error by Jarrod Saltailgslsngiwon. Experience all the gory details after the jump.

That creamy goodness that was a 6 run Dbacks win all began in the 1st inning, which really set the tone for the entire contest. Max Scherzer (described, somewhat disturbingly as "winsome" on MLB.com, along with Lincecum and Greinke -- sounds like SOMEBODY's got a few mancrushes!) blew away the first two batters he faced on Ks, before giving up a 2 out triple to Michael Young. Scherzer responded, angrily, by plunking the next batter, Marlon Byrd, before getting Nelson Cruz to fly out in the pitcher-friendly cavernous Chase Field. ;-) The Diamondbacks, for their part, led off the bottom of the 1st with a Flip groundout, followed by a Drew single, and Justin Upton's 14th home run of the year. Reynolds followed with a single, but ended up getting caught stealing: clearly, he's trying to improve on his already league-best Power-Speed #, in order to make the ASG. The deuce would end up being enough runs to drive the game to extras, but fortunately, the offense didn't rest there.

Scherzer kept up the awesomeness in the 2nd, going K-K-groundout, and the offense kept its foot on the pedal. Eric Byrnes and Flip got singles, and Miguel Montero and Ryan Roberts got walks to make the score 4-0. It would end up being all the scoring we needed, but the hitters didn't rest yet.

Mad Max ran into a bit of trouble in the top of the 3rd, walking the opposing pitcher, Matt Harrison, to lead off the inning. David Murphy singled, and Marlon Byrd had a two out double to score Harrison. Nelson Cruz flied out to end the inning, and a leadoff walk by Reynolds in the bottom half was erased by a Parra GIDP as the Dbacks failed to score in the 3rd.

In the 4th, back to back leadoff singles by Jarrod Saltalamacchia and strikeout king Chris Davis put a runner in scoring position with nobody out, but a flyout and a failed foul bunt by Harrison, whom Matt Williams pointed out looked like a typical AL pitcher in having no idea how to bunt, meant that Ian Kinsler's single only scored 1 run to make it 4-2. It must have pissed off the Dbacks, because they broke open the game in the bottom.

Roberts got a 1 out walk, and Max's sacrifice was good. Now, we needed a two out RBI from the man who's been derided on this very site as the king of lazy, minimal-effort baseball: he must read the 'Pit, because he got the run in and went to 2nd on the throw home. Stephen Drew got a 2 out single of his own, and Flip raced to beat the throw home. Former Rockies ace Jason Jennings came in to make sure that all baserunners would be charged as runs to Harrison, as Upton smacked a line drive double up the middle to make it 7-2.

Both teams went down in order in the 5th, and Scherzer pitched around a leadoff Salty single in the 6th. Elvis Andrus whacked a sharp grounder that got by Roberts at 3rd but Stephen Drew made a Toolo-esque play and Reynolds a great scoop at 1st to get the very close out. Somewhere, Orlando Hudson is muttering "Phenom".

Everybody's favorite solar-powered flashlight, Tony Clark, pinch flied out for Scherzer in the bottom of the inning, but as if to belabor the point that he's not lazy, Flip stretched a hard-hit liner into a triple without a throw and subsequently scored on an odd sequence. Jennings threw a ball in the dirt, and Saltalamacchia asked for, and was granted, time from HP umpire Mike Everitt. However, Salty unexpectedly declined to switch to a new ball, and instead threw the used one back to Jennings.... well, threw it sorta, vaguely, TOWARDS Jennings, plus about 6 feet in altitude. Flip scored, Ron Washington came out to argue, unsuccessfully, (though Matty, on the AM, seemed to think the ump made a mistake) and that's it for scoring. Ultimately it was irrelevant to the outcome of the game, as the next batter, Stephen Drew, got a single, but it was certainly interesting to listen to. Esmerling Vasquez, Juan Gutierrez and Tony Peña combined for 3 heartburnless innings, pitching around a single and a walk, and Reynolds made a FANTASTIC play to rob David Murphy of probable extra bases and end the game. It's nice that SOME of our 1Bs can catch a ball. :-(

Since I'm always so fond to note when a team simply "gets lucky" with its hits in a game, I'm glad to report that Arizona's BABIP was a robust .393 -- slightly high, especially for our team, but not terribly unsustainably so. The team tonight only outhit Texas 11-8, but for once, clutch hits were a-plenty, with the Sedona Boys going 3-7 w/RISP and getting 3 2-out RBIs.

Bravo, Dbacks! Bravo! This was certainly more complete a game than any of the three "contests" in Seattle, as indicated by the FanGraph, and specifically the fact that the Dbacks' win probability never dipped any lower than it was during bottom of the 1st inning. It was a quick, 2 hr 38 minute game, and fun, too! Offense, pitching, and defense. Now THIS was the team we thought we had this year. It was a nice way to bounce back after being apparently Sleepless In Seattle, and I can't help but think there might be some satisfaction on the parts of ASU fans. Lower stakes this time, but at least Phoenix baseball beat Texas.

Badass of the Day: Justin Upton, +18.6%

Also mavericky: Flip Lopez, +14.3%; Max Scherzer, +10.1%

Boarding the bus to Reno: Gerardo Parra, -4.9%

As usually happens during easy wins, there was a lively Gameday Thread with over 550 comments. I led the pack with 177 comments in my first full-time GDT since returning to Arizona, followed by hotclaws and soco, and snakecharmer broke 50 in her first thread back as well. Present in the thread were hotclaws, TwinnerA, pygalgia, DbacksSkins, snakecharmer, Azreous, kishi, Zephon, Tim Weiss, DBacksCynthia(WELCOME!), emilylovesthedbacks, pepperdinedevil, 4 Corners Fan, unnamedDBacksfan, soco, J Up, and AJforAZ.

Incidentally, Baseball-Reference.com reports that the Dbacks' year-to-date attendance is 999,321. We all know the real figure is somewhat lower, but official attendance is what we go by. So, the Dbacks should "officially" get their 1 millionth 2009 attendee at today's game, where Danny Haren looks to keep up his streak of being totally awesome. The Rangers send former purple Dback Vicente Padilla to the mound. The Rockies finally lost again, to Arte's boys, and it would be nice to get a win today and see the Padres lose so we could pull within 1 game of.... OOH!! Not Last Place. (NLP)

Does the Arizona bullpen really suck?

Jim McLennan — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

The bullpen in happy times.

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After Friday night's fiasco, in which Schoeneweis and Pena contrived to turn a three-run lead into a deficit while retiring two batters in the eighth, it might not seem like there's any doubt on the matter. Why, yes, they do suck. But it's worth looking into the numbers a little deeper than the purely anecdotal evidence. Every relief corps in the league is going to blow some late leads now and again - as noted at the time, our implosion wasn't even the most extreme of the day, as the Indians bullpen blew a five-run lead after seven frames. They stick in the mind, that's for sure, and this perhaps gives them a perceived commonness beyond the reality.

After the jump, let's delve into the stats and see what we can find... [Note: all figures exclude Saturday and Sunday's games. Since we're supposed to have our Internet moved at some point today, I scheduled this post well in advance, so you'd have something to read on the off-day, even if we were 'off the grid']

The Diamondbacks' bullpen ERA is now 5.07. That's more than a full run worse than the National League average, and ranks 15th in the NL, ahead only of woeful Washington, at 5.43. So the two teams with the worst records have the worst bullpen ERAs, while the best number belongs to Los Angeles, who also have the best record in the majors. Case closed. The bullpen do suck, and are a large part of the season we're last in the division.

Hang on... There's something odd here; despite that ERA, they actually have a winning record, at 10-9. Only nine of the team's 39 losses are credited to them, a number bettered by just four teams in the National League. Now, while wins may be a poor way to judge a pitcher, it seems that losses for a bullpen are of some importance - those indicate games where they took over with a lead or when the score was tied, and yet the opposition ended up victorious. Despite what it feels, that hasn't happened to the Diamondbacks particularly much this year. We have sixteen blown leads, compared to fourteen comeback wins - the major-league average for both is fifteen.

The 2009 bullpen has just not been part of the outcome in very many games: just 19 times. Thus far, relievers have thrown 35% of the innings in the NL, and been involved in 32% of the decisions. Being a little less makes sense, since inertia has to be overcome: in most cases when the starter leaves, unless 'something' happens, they will get the W or L. But in Arizona's case, the bullpen has been involved in 28% of decisions - and usually in a positive way. I also note that last year at this point, they had more losses and a worse overall record, at 7-11.

In contrast, we can look at the rotation, who have gone 19-30, a sharp reverse from the 30-20 record at the same stage in 2008. Now, while some of those have been due to poor run support, the majority of defeats (17) have come when the starter had an ERA on the day above seven, which doesn't seem an acceptable level of performance. Doug Davis has had five such losses, Jon Garland four, and the triple-headed Beast of Webb Replacement "Yusmilly Augucknit", six of those defeats. The impact of our ace's injury bites us once again.

It doesn't seem that our bullpen blows more late-inning leads than most teams either. Here's a chart, which shows the win percentage when leading after each inning, from the first through the eighth. The black line is the MLB overall figure, the Sedona Red one shows the win percentage for the Diamondbacks:

This is interesting data, and shows that from the sixth inning on, the Diamondbacks are losing leads at almost exactly the same rate as an average team in the major-leagues. Specifially, after six, the team that's ahead wins 85.2% of the time; the Diamondbacks 83.3%. When leading after seven, the same numbers are 89.7% and 87.5%; and after the eighth inning, Arizona are actually better. We are 24-1 there, a 96% rate, compared to the MLB average of 95.2%.The only ninth-inning lead we've blown, that actually cost us the game, was the one where San Diego came back from 7-1 down, to tie it in the ninth and win it in ten.

Where the Diamondbacks are much worse at defending leads than average, is when they have an early advantage. It's interesting - and somewhat surprising - to note that overall, a team that has the lead after the first inning already has a 70% chance of being the eventual victor. This is definitely not the case for Arizona, however, who are only 4-8 when they jump ahead in the opening frame. Similarly, even when leading at the end of the fourth, we're barely above .500 at 14-12, compared to the average of 77%. Here are the details of all nine losses credited to the bullpen this season

April 21 vs. COL. Loser: Juan Gutierrez. AZ led after five.
The D-backs had a 6-3 lead into the sixth, but Bobby Korecky, Doug Slaten and Juan Gutierrez combined to allow four runs.
April 30 vs. MIL. Loser: Tom Gordon. AZ led after six.
Max Scherzer threw six shutout innings. Gordon faced five batters, retired one, threw two wild pitches and injured himself. Scott Schoeneweis drove in the go-ahead run with a bases-loaded walk.
May 3 vs. MIL. Loser: Juan Gutierrez. AZ never led.
We came back to tie the game at three by scoring three in the seventh. However, Tony Peña allowed an inherited runner to score in the eighth.
May 7 vs. SDP. Loser: Esmerling Vasquez. AZ never led.
Dan Haren left after six with the game tied at three [we did lead under him, 2-0 and 3-2, but we're talking about the pen here]. David Eckstein had a walk-off single in the tenth.
May 15 vs. ATL. Loser: Tony Peña. AZ never led.
While Arizona tied this up with a Drew homer off the Braves' closer in the top of the ninth, Peña gave up the game-winning sacrifice-fly in the bottom of the inning.
May 25 vs. SDP. Loser: Tony Peña. AZ led after eight.
This was the infamous one mentioned above, where we blew a 7-1 lead, with the Padres scoring five in the eighth, one in the ninth, and a two-run homer in the tenth.
June 2 vs. LAD. Loser: Daniel Schlereth. AZ led after seven.
Another painful loss. 5-1 up going into the eighth, the Dodgers put up a five-spot on Arizona in the bottom half, off Peña and Schlereth, and left us with no real chance to recover.
June 6 vs. SDP. Loser: Daniel Schlereth. AZ led after five.
Scherzer again: five shutout innings and left 2-0 up. Leo Rosales, Schlereth and Clay Zavada combined to allow six runs in the sixth.
June 19 vs. SEA. Loser: Tony Peña. AZ led after seven.
I trust we needn't go into much detail, but for the historical record, Scott Schoeneweis and Peña gave up four in the eighth, to blow a 3-0 lead after seven zeroes from Jon Garland.

It appears, all told, that the bullpen has "cost" the team only six victories, with the other three being level [and so up for grabs] when they entered. Admittedly, this discounts games like the 18-inning contest, where the bullpen was both awful, conceding five runs in the ninth, and brilliant, then no-hitting the Padres for the nine innings which followed that], because the team won in the end. What's interesting - and perhaps magnifies the sense of relief corps suckage - is the scale of the losses. Most of these blown leads weren't close: we've wasted margins of six, five, four and (twice) three runs. It almost seems we are better at defending small leads.

Not that there isn't room for improvement. The main issue for the team, and particularly the bullpen, is allowing too many 'big innings', where we let the opponent put up four, five or even six runs. We lead the league in those, 23 this season. It's the sixth that has proved most troublesome, with five such games - all told, we've conceded 57 runs there, which works out at above 7.5 per nine innings, and is more than in the first and second combined. Even if we don't actually blow the entire lead there, such an implosion will make even a comfortable margin a great deal less secure for the remaining three frames.

A particular area of concern is inherited runners. 42% of them score on the Diamondbacks, most in the league. This would tie in with the big inning: one pitcher can't get it done, so the next has to clean up the mess and fails to do so. Curiously, this aspect of the game has become much worse under AJ Hinch. In the first 29 games, with Melvin in charge, the rate was only 31%, right around league average [32% at the present time]. However, in the 39 Hinch-led games, the number has shot up to an astonishing 51%, and in the 17 games so far this month, it's 60% (twelve of twenty).

Random luck? Poor choice of bullpen pitchers? I leave the interpretation to you, though it'd take more analysis, since situations vary. You can inherit a runner on third with no outs, or one on first with two outs - letting the former come home is a much smaller sin than the latter. Still, particularly bad in this aspect is Zavada, who has somehow managed to maintain a 0.00 ERA, while letting eight of nine inherited runners score. Gutierrez and Jon Rauch are also above 40%; Pena and Schoeneweis are the sole members of the current 'pen below league-average, with the latter only having one outing where he let them score. However, more than three-quarters of his 22 appearances have involved two outs or less, reducing the chance for this to happen.

All told, I'd say the evidence is that the bullpen are indeed significantly worse than average, but do not seem to have had very much impact on the overall won-lost record of the Arizona Diamondbacks. This again may be a result of luck or management - it doesn't matter too much if the bullpen gives up late runs in a blowout game e.g. the two wins over the Royals. There is some data to support this, with opponents hitting .277 off our pitchers when the margin is more than four runs, compared to .264 overall. However, I doubt this conclusion will come as much comfort to Diamondbacks' fans, who will continue to reach for the Rolaids every time a lead is turned over from a starting pitcher.

Poll

What's the main reason for the D-backs' struggles this year?

Poor offense

92 votes

Inconsistent starting pitching

22 votes

Bullpen struggles

149 votes

Bad fundamentals e.g. defense, base-running

33 votes

296 votes | Poll has closed