SB Nation - Jeff Samardzija

The NL Central Offseason Revue: Ursine Children

the red baron — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:43:23 -0000

Sure, I've used it before. It's a good picture, damn it.

But first, a story. (Just so you know it's a Baron post.)

Last weekend, my mother and I went shopping. The Cherokee Street Antique Row Association was holding their annual Cookie Spree, and we go every year. There's always people milling around, free hot apple cider, and most of the shops are decorated.

We met up in South County, deciding it was a better idea to take one car. Mom tends to get motion sickness when not driving, so I generally just ride with her. We headed up 55 toward the city, then exited at the 4500 block of Broadway.

At the bottom of the ramp was an old woman holding a sign. A square of cardboard scrawled all over in black marker, I couldn't read exactly what was written but the message was clear nonetheless. It was cold out, and the ragged old overcoat she was clutching around her looked woefully inadequate. I've been conned before, I'm sure, but this was no panhandler. This was an old woman with no place to go who badly needed help.

We came to a stop at the bottom of the ramp, and I dug out my wallet. Mom reached for her purse, and I told her I would get it. I opened my wallet and grabbed the first two bills in it, a ten and a twenty. Then, guided by some internal calculus I don't at all understand, I put the ten back. I handed my mother the twenty, she motioned the old woman over, and gave it to her. The old woman said something, toothless mouth moving quickly, blessing us and wishing us well, but by then the car was moving and I couldn't entirely tell what it was. We continued on our way, had hot chocolate and apple cider and cookies. I bought an antique light fixture; it seemed like a fine day.

I tell you all this not to make you think I'm some sort of saint for giving this old woman twenty dollars, but because ever since then I haven't been able to stop thinking about the ten dollars I didn't give her. I had almost $300 in my wallet that day, and a credit card nowhere near the limit to boot. In no way, shape, or form would that extra ten dollars have hurt me, yet I put it back. And worst of all, I don't understand why. I like to think I would do whatever it takes to help someone in need, but apparently that only goes so far. Apparently there's a price on my generosity, and it's painfully low. A truly good person would have been willing to hand over everything they had in hand and never thought twice about it; I certainly didn't need another antique to litter my already cluttered house.

We went back the same way later, on the way back to my car, but the old woman was gone. I hope what I gave her was enough to help, but I can't stop thinking about that moment, when I arbitrarily decided the limits of how much I was willing to help another human being.

I've had these posts in mind for a while now, trying to take a look around the division at our rivals and what their offseasons might look like, but simply hadn't had the chance to do so yet. With my inability to post a full post on Wednesday, I thought I might ask Dan if he minded me taking today. He seemed amenable to the idea, unsurprising given the dearth of real meat to work with this time of year and what is undoubtedly a crowded schedule for everyone. So here I am, telling you what the Cubs need to do this winter.

I begin with the Cubs because they are our chief rivals and also because it simply fits. We care more about the Cubs. So here we are.

As the Cubbies head into their first offseason with new ownership, the question of payroll undoubtedly must be raised. Their new owner, Tom Ricketts, has pledged to update the stadium and build a winner, but just how much one will impact the other remains to be seen. For now, it looks as if Ricketts is willing to pour money into the franchise in order to win, and we'll have to operate under that assumption.

Offense

The Cubs' offense took a huge hit last season from the high times of 2008, due to several players underperforming. Alfonso Soriano was the biggest culprit, stumbling to an OPS+ of 84 after three seasons over 115. Geovany Soto went through an awful sophomore slump, falling from a 118 OPS+ to 79. Aramis Ramirez missed significant time with a shoulder injury, and Derrek Lee struggled mightily early in the season before turning it around.

There were bright spots, such as the improvement Kosuke Fukudome made from his first season in the majors or the continued non-suckitude of Ryan Theriot, but overall it was an intensely disappointing season for Chicago at the plate. In 2008 the Cubs scored 855 runs; in 2009 they plated only 707. Enough said.

Starting Pitching

If the Cubs' offense was decidedly disappointing, the pitching was underwhelmingly good. Carlos Zambrano continued his human roller coaster act, yet still managed to post an ERA under 4.00 for the eighth straight year. Nonetheless, the Big Z is no longer quite the intimidating force at the front of a rotation he once was. He's still solid, but he doesn't really scare you anymore. (Well, unless you happen to be something edible or punchable in the dugout, that is.)

Ryan Dempster fell off from his 2008 performance, but was still a plus pitcher for Chicago. He was awful much of the early portion of the year, but came on strong late to lower his ERA to 3.65. Dempster provides much-needed innings, and at a reasonably high level. After Z and Dumpster, though, things get a bit murkier.

Ted Lilly, a relatively unsung contributor to the Cubs' back-to-back division titles, has had shoulder surgery already this offseason. It was minor shoulder surgery, yes, but then again, I'm not entirely sure there is such a thing. Lilly was absolutely brilliant in 2009, posting a 3.61 FIP, but until he can prove his shoulder is unequivocally sound, he has to be a concern.

Perhaps the brightest spot of all for the Cubs in '09 was the performance of their rookie hurler, Randy Wells. He went 12-10, 3.05 in his first extended taste of the majors at 27. His peripherals were mostly in line as well, so it doesn't appear he did it all with smoke and mirrors. Still, Wells is a relatively unknown commodity, and may simply be waiting until the time is right to give up a crippling home run, then rip open his jersey, revealing the Cardinal jersey underneath. So there's that.

The Cubs' fifth starter spot was, for the most part, a disaster. Sean Marshall continued to impersonate Sean Marshall. The Cubs acquired Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates, and he picked up basically where he left off in Pittsburgh. There were positives in his performance, but for the most part it was another disappointing season for the man once voted Most Likely to Actually Live Up to His Billing among all Pittsburgh left-handed starting prospects.

Relief

Carlos Marmol is sort of the pitching equivalent of a British motorcycle. Yeah, it's a whole lot of fun when it's working, and it certainly looks impressive, but damned if the thing isn't broken down and spilling oil all over your driveway more often than not. Marmol has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but not much idea where it's going a fair amount of the time. Hitters did a much better job of laying off his slider in 2009, and he had a tough time throwing it for strikes. He still struck out a bunch of hitters (93 in 74 innings), and didn't give up many hits (43), but he also walked 65 hitters, leading to a 1.46 WHIP fueled almost entirely by batters simply standing there and doing nothing.

Kevin Gregg was solid, though not the force the Cubs were undoubtedly hoping for, and he has now departed via free agency. Angel Guzman was impressive, combining a repertoire just a step down from Marmol's with actual control, but he remains very young and was shut down late in the season with an injury. Neal Cotts was, um, how do I put this?- shitty, only to be replaced as the primary lefty by John Grabow. Grabow did what he always does, and should be a definite plus in the 'pen for 2010.

Jeff Samardzija continued his enigmatic career arc, following up his 2.28 ERA in 2008 with a 7.53 in 2009. Sure, he's talented, but at some point Samardzija is going to have to come up with something more than a big fastball and a passing resemblance to Andy Samberg if he wants to succeed at the major league level.

Needs

Any discussion of the Chicago Cubs' offseason has to begin with the outfield, where they badly need to figure things out. Milton Bradley wasn't a bad player for them in 2009; on the contrary, he was probably still their best outfielder, but all signs point to him being dealt this offseason, and I'm not sure I can blame the Cubs. As much as Bradley wasn't the problem with the team this year, I just don't know if his relationship with the fans, not to mention his teammates, is a tenable one.

If Bradley is dealt, the Cubs will have to come up with someone to try and replicate his offensive contributions, and several names have been floated. Rick Ankiel was thought to be their first choice until fairly recently, but things seem to have cooled slightly on that front since Scott Boras made his comments about multiple years and big dollars for Swingin' Dick's services. The Cubs don't seem to have much interest in Matt Holliday, perhaps being a bit gun shy after witnessing how horribly wrong a seven-year deal for an outfielder can go. They also haven't been mentioned all that much in the Jason Bay sweepstakes, so I have to assume they're looking at lower-hanging fruit.

Beyond the outfield, it's somewhat doubtful the Cubs will be able to make any substantial upgrades to their offense. Both corner infield positions are set, and rightfully so. Soto will be looking for a bounceback season; it's far too early to write him off as a one-year wonder. The only spots the Cubs could look to upgrade are the middle infield positions, but I'm not sure how much help is really available at those spots this offseason. Perhaps the Cubbies get involved in trying to trade for Dan Uggla? They do have an exciting young middle infield prospect in the pipeline named Starlin Castro, who has garnered plenty of comparisons to Edgar Renteria, and could draw interest from Florida, but little beyond that.

The bullpen has to be an area of concern, and priority one has to be sorting out who will at least begin the season as the Chicago closer. Marmol, I'm sure, will have the inside track on the job, but after his 2009 performance it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion. I doubt the Cubs will go outside the organisation to find a stopper, but it's likely they'll try to acquire at least an arm or two to bolster the overall depth of the 'pen.

Priorities

Deal with Milton Bradley situation. Trade is most likely outcome.
Acquire offensive upgrade to replace Bradley's production. Left-handed hitter would be desirable.
Shore up bullpen, likely through trades. (Bradley?)
Look at other possible offensive upgrades, i.e. Uggla or Mark DeRosa as utility player.
Acquire 5th starter/ insurance arm for Ted Lilly.
???
World Series title.

The Bottom Line

The Cubs are by no means in dire straights. They underachieved badly last season, but the offense should receive a boost from a full season from Ramirez and, hopefully, better years from Soriano, Soto, and Lee. The same can't really be said for the pitching, which performed right about where one would expect, given the talent level. The starting rotation will remain their biggest strength, while the bullpen remains somewhat suspect.

At this point, the Cubs have to be considered the Cards' main competition for the division again in 2009. Both teams are clearly a step or two ahead of the pack.

There you go, folks. One in the can, four to go.

The Baron's Playlist for the 11th of December, 2009

"The Blizzard" - Camera Obscura A cover of the Jim Reeves/ Johnny Cash classic. Any CO fans out there (and I know there are some), you might want to check out their holiday 7" release, with the Blizzard backed by Swans.

"My Wife and My Dead Wife" - Robyn Hitchcock and the Egyptians

"Oh You Pretty Things" - Peter Noone I just heard this on Pop! The Beat Bubble Bursts yesterday morning, and I can't stop listening to it. It's a Bowie cover by the former Herman's Hermits frontman, and it has a bit of an early Harry Nilsson vibe to it. Really great.

"Intermezzo Sinfonico" from Mascagni's Cavalleria Rusticana - James Levine

"Take On Me" - A.C. Newman Another tip of the hat to KDHX, this time to Nick Acquisto and the Space Parlour. Outstanding cover of the A-Ha classic.

Edit: And, of course, on the day I write this, some actual news comes down the pipeline, as the Cardinals have now apparently made an official offer to Scott Boras and Matt Holliday. Sigh. They couldn't have waited just one more day? Really?

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

View full size photo »

Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Cubs' Ted Lilly undergoes shoulder surgery

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:19:46 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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Bad News Cubs.

Bruce Miles of the Arlington Heights Daily Herald is reporting that Cubs pitcher Ted Lilly underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery yesterday and could miss the start of the regular season. Lilly, who has been the Cubs' most reliable starter in recent years, says he hopes to start throwing in four months.

"The idea is maybe to start throwing in four months or so," he said. "A lot of that is going to be dictated on just how the rehab goes. That can change one way or another. My intention is to get back as soon as I can without setting myself back."

Since signing with the Cubs, Lilly has gone 44-26 with a 3.67 ERA. Entering a contract year in 2010, you can bet that Lilly wants to get back to the mound as soon as possible.

How will this impact the Cubs' moves this offseason?

The Cubs are not expected to bring back Rich Harden, meaning a spot will open up in the rotation. Currently, the rotation will look something like this: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, and either Tom Gorzelanny or Jeff Samardzija.

With Lilly out, it seems even more imperative that the Cubs bring in a veteran arm to give the Cubs some stability at the back-end of their rotation. Free agent pitcher Randy Wolf could be an option for that role.

Other options include Javier Vazquez of the Braves through a trade, or free agents Justin Duchscherer, Brett Myers, or Joel Piniero.

Cubs Again Rained Out Against Pirates

Al — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 12:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

This has been the rainiest season in more than 20 years.

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Maybe the Cubs should forget about the fancy weather service to which they subscribe and just listen to third base coach Mike Quade:

"It doesn't look good on the radar," manager Lou Piniella said beforehand. "(Third base coach) Mike Quade does a good job with radars, and this thing is socked in pretty good."

Had they simply observed conditions, though, they could have played five innings last night and avoided the full refunds they're going to have to give anyone who had bought a ticket for last night's rainout. It rained yesterday starting about 3:30 in the afternoon, and continued until about 6:15, at which time it let up, they pulled the tarp off the field, and began play on time. A light mist was falling, and gusty winds started to kick up, which made Lou's professed desire to see Jeff Samardzija pitch one more time this year rather useless. Samardzija gave up three runs in the first inning, but Lastings Milledge's two-run homer would have been a routine fly ball on most nights at Wrigley; the howling breeze blew Milledge's ball into the first row of the left-field bleachers.

When the rain got harder the umpires held up play. What you don't know and may not have seen on TV, if you were watching, was that the hard rain lasted about five minutes and then let up again for about half an hour -- during which time they could probably have played through the fifth inning and avoided all the refunds.

About 8,000 people showed up last night in the conditions reminiscent of the last time the Pirates were in town -- a hard rain for a few minutes, then enough time to play. The postponement was the fifth of the season for the Cubs, the most since 1986. This one, obviously, will be cancelled and not made up.

Why did the Cubs wait nearly 2 1/2 hours before finally calling the game? Look at it this way. According to Biz of Baseball, the average ticket price for Cubs games in 2009 is $47.75 (third highest in the major leagues behind the Yankees and Red Sox, incidentally). Assume that approximately 33,000 tickets were sold for last night's game -- a fairly safe assumption, since that was the announced paid attendance for Wednesday night's game. That would make the gross ticket revenue from Thursday night (approximately) $1,575,750. That ticket revenue alone would be nearly enough to cover Aaron Heilman's $1,625,000 contract (number from Cot's Baseball Contracts). Now they'll have to refund all that money and pay Heilman some other way.

I kid. A little. Years ago, on a day like yesterday, even without modern "Super Doppler Radar", management would have called the game three hours before game time and not even opened the doors. There's too much money involved now to do that, for better or for worse. The forecast for today and tomorrow isn't much better. Seems somehow an appropriate way to end this drip of a season. Today's pregame thread will be up at 11:30 am CDT.

October Baseball Comes To Chicago: Cubs vs. Pirates Preview, Thursday 10/1, 7:05 CT

Al — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 22:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Write your own caption. (No contest today, just for fun.)

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Not the kind of October baseball we wanted, of course, but here it is October and the Cubs are still playing baseball. As I said yesterday, enjoy it while it's here... because you know you'll miss it over the winter.

Bruce Miles has the story behind the "With Reed We Will Succeed" T-shirt that Ted Lilly wore during the post-game 1 press conference yesterday:

"The story behind the shirt is I was given that shirt from one of the flight attendants," Reed said. "I guess one of their family members...they live in the suburbs and have a Reed Johnson fan club or whatever. They gave me that shirt. I didn’t have enough guts to put it on myself or even give it to one of my family members. Ted wears anything, so I just gave it to Ted."

Johnson said he’d love to come back next year.

"Oh, yeah, for sure," he said. "It’s a great organization. It’s the best two years of my career (that) have been spent here. Hopefully, I continue to be successful here."

I'd like Reed back too -- his only trouble has been staying healthy, and the foot injury this year was unfortunate, since his back was giving him fewer problems this year than last. He sounds like he'd take a little less money to stay than to go to free agency. To coin a phrase, "GETITDONEJIM!!!!1!!!1"

Speaking of upcoming Cub free agents, Kevin Gregg says he wants to stay and close in 2010. Response from me: no thanks.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Jeff Samardzija Cubs	vs.	Paul Maholm Pirates

1-3	W-L	8-9
7.53	ERA	4.44
21	SO	119
15	BB	60
7	HR	14
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jeff Samardzija	1-3	20	2	0	0	0	0	34.2	46	29	29	7	15	21	7.53	1.76

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Paul Maholm	8-9	31	31	0	0	0	0	194.2	221	102	96	14	60	119	4.44	1.44

The Cubs beat Paul Maholm pretty good at Wrigley Field on May 25. (Goofy-looking lineup that day, too.) Both So Taguchi (7-for-17) and Reed Johnson (5-for-9) have hit Maholm well in the past. Lifetime against the Cubs he has a 7.06 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in nine career starts spanning 51 innings, but somehow has managed to post a 4-1 won-lost record.

Jeff Samardzija has four career relief appearances vs. the Pirates without allowing a run; this will be his first start against them. Current Pirates have ten AB vs. Jeff (three hits). This is an important appearance for the Shark to set a good tone for his possible inclusion in the mix for the 2010 rotation (or bullpen).

Today's game is again cable-only; CSN Chicago. There is no Pittsburgh TV, so you'll see Len & Bob on EI. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout.

Overflow comment threads will post again today at 8:15 and 9:15 pm CDT, although last night's were pretty sparsely attended.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

It's The 47th Anniversary Of... Cubs vs. Pirates Doubleheader Preview, Wednesday 9/30, 1:05 & 7:05 CT

Al — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 16:30:18 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Write your own caption.

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A 47th anniversary? Of what? What's that all about?

This all started with an email exchange on a SABR mailing list to which I subscribe. (Yes, I got permission from both men to post their email here.) Josh Heit asked the list over this past weekend:

On Monday, the Mets and Nationals begin a series and the teams will have at least a combined 191 losses (Mets 89 going into Sunday, Nationals 102). Is this is a record? I have checked some obvious choices such as the 2003 Tigers and did not find a series that beat 191, although I was not working off of a comprehensive list.

To which John Pastier wrote the following definitive reply:

As a 1962 Mets fan, I am deeply shocked that Josh does not consider The Amazin's to be an obvious choice to be checked for this honor. This club was to losing what Rickey Henderson was to stealing or walking, what Barry Bonds was to splash hits, what Ichiro is to singles, what the Rockies are to thin air, what Joe Morgan is to baseball analysis, and what Pete Rose was to making outs. They are the undisputed gold standard of losing, and holding up a puny 191 combined losses before this juggernaut of defeat is like asking whether Babe Ruth ever hit more than 40 home runs.

The Mets and the Cubs played each other on Sept. 30, 1962, and at the close of business, they had combined for 223 losses, 120 of them by the Metropolitans. And they did this even though they were not allowed to complete their full schedule, falling two decisions short of the requisite 162.

I hope Pastier was being facetious about Joe Morgan (either that, or in an oblique way calling him a "loser"). Anyway, yes, the Sept. 30, 1962 game (which the Cubs won 5-3), holds the record for the game in which the two clubs began the day with the most combined losses (222; the Mets began the game with 119 defeats and the Cubs 103, which is the franchise record, tied in 1966). Another interesting note about that season-ending series at Wrigley Field 47 years ago: the first game of that series, a Friday afternoon game on September 28 also won by the Cubs 3-2, drew a paid "crowd" of 595 people. That number of people could fit comfortably in a couple of bleacher sections. It was one of nine games between 1959 and 1966 that drew paid attendance of less than 1000. How times change.

There will be a few more people than that in the seats during today's first game, a makeup of the postponement from August 16, but likely fewer than the estimated 15,000 who showed up last night.

Starting rotation note: Lou announced during last night's postgame news conference that Jeff Samardzija will start tomorrow vs. the Pirates, and Tom Gorzelanny on Friday vs. the Diamondbacks. (It was originally the other way around.)

Game One Starting Pitchers


Ted Lilly Cubs	vs.	Charlie Morton Pirates

12-8	W-L	4-9
3.02	ERA	5.01
143	SO	54
34	BB	37
22	HR	7
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ted Lilly	12-8	26	26	0	0	0	0	170.0	146	62	57	22	34	143	3.02	1.06

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Charlie Morton	4-9	17	17	0	0	0	0	88.0	98	49	49	7	37	54	5.01	1.53

Game Two Starting Pitchers


Carlos Zambrano Cubs	vs.	Jeff Karstens Pirates

9-6	W-L	3-5
3.69	ERA	5.45
146	SO	49
74	BB	44
10	HR	12
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carlos Zambrano	9-6	34	27	1	1	0	0	163.1	149	74	67	10	74	146	3.69	1.37

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jeff Karstens	3-5	36	11	0	0	0	0	100.2	106	62	61	12	44	49	5.45	1.49

I'm going to try to say nice things about the Pirates' starters today, Charlie Morton and Jeff Karstens, but geez, those records are pretty bad. Neither one strikes out many hitters, and both ERA's are north of 5.00. The last time Charlie Morton faced the Cubs, they scored ten earned runs off him in one-plus innings on August 14 at Wrigley Field before John Russell took pity on him and got him out of the game. Jeff Karstens had one shining moment as a Pirate, in the first game he threw for them after being acquired from the Yankees. On August 1, 2008, he threw six shutout innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. His next two outings against the Cubs, not so much -- five earned runs in three innings in a start on August 25, 2008 and two earned runs in two innings in relief on September 9 of this year.

Ted Lilly will be trying to lower his ERA below 3.00 and finish the year with a sub-three ERA for the first time in his major league career -- a worthy goal. A win today would also be his 45th as a Cub, giving him an average of 15 wins a year over the first three years of his four-year deal, one of Jim Hendry's best free-agent signings. Ted is 1-1 vs. the Pirates this year with a 2.77 ERA and he threw better in the June 30 loss, when the Cubs got shut out by Ross Ohlendorf (who the Cubs won't face in this series), than in the September 9 victory at PNC Park. Ted is also 8-1, 1.60 in 12 starts at Wrigley Field this year and 8-3, 2.55 in 14 starts in day games.

Carlos Zambrano is 1-0, 2.19 in two starts vs. the Pirates this year; he will be trying to follow up his shutout of the Giants with another strong performance to end the year on an up note, and also to get his 10th win. That would make seven straight years in double figures for Z and it would be his 106th career victory. Of the current Pirates, no one has more than 14 career AB against Z, and only Brandon Moss has homered off him.

Today's first game is on WGN and FSN Pittsburgh. Today's second game is on CSN Chicago Plus (CLTV in Chicago, "check local listings" elsewhere). For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday (game one)

MLB.com Gameday (game two)

Baseball-reference.com game preview (game one)

Baseball-reference.com game preview (game two)

SB Nation game preview (game one)

SB Nation game preview (game two)

Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout. They seem a little lonely over there.

There won't be a separate game preview thread for the second game; consider this a preview for both games (feel free to revisit this thread before the night game begins). Overflow comment threads will post today for game one at 2:15 and 3:15 pm CDT. The first pitch thread will post for game two at 7 pm CDT and overflows at 8:15 and 9:15 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Ten Lessons Jim Hendry Needs To Learn From The 2009 Season

Al — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Example of a player Jim Hendry should not sign to an overpriced, multiyear contract.

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I suppose this post could have waited till next week, but once again we are faced with more than 48 hours between games -- for the last time in 2009 -- and so I thought I'd start some discussion this morning with these things that I think were done poorly by Cubs GM Jim Hendry since the end of the 2008 season.

Hendry got a three-year contract extension (through the 2012 season) after last year's successful regular season, with the hope that 2009 would be even better. It didn't work out that way; Hendry had about as bad an offseason last year as any GM in recent memory, but with new ownership poised to take over, it isn't the right time to blow everything up and start over. Hendry will be given at least one more year to get things back on the track we thought the Cubs were on during their two-year run as NL Central champions in 2007 and 2008.

Some of the problems with the 2009 Cubs were not Hendry's fault and many of them were beyond his control. It's not Hendry's fault that Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder four weeks into the season and missed a total of 75 games (through yesterday). A-Ram produced above his usual level (.906 OPS, compared to his career level of .847) and I think we all agree that the Cubs missed his production in the two months he was out from mid-May to mid-July, not to mention that he wasn't at full strength on his return. To have produced the way he did after the All-Star break -- without complaining -- is a credit to Ramirez's work ethic and ability. It's not Hendry's fault that Alfonso Soriano played most of the year injured, though he perhaps could have insisted harder that Soriano have arthroscopic surgery in June, and maybe he'd have been ready in September. It's not Hendry's fault that all the Opening Day rotation starters spent time on the disabled list, forcing the Cubs to have 21 starts made by guys (Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija) whose performance can best be called "uneven". (The Cubs were 9-12 in those 21 games.)

Credit where credit is due: give Jim credit for recognizing that Randy Wells could help the team as a starter, though I don't think anyone could have guessed he'd be as good as he has been. Credit for giving Koyie Hill the backup catcher job; he's been very good in that role. And credit for getting John Grabow and Gorzelanny for, essentially, nothing; Grabow will likely be retained as a key part of the 2010 bullpen and Gorzelanny, though his performance has been up and down, does have talent and will be in the mix for the 2010 rotation.

With that in mind, below the fold you'll find ten ideas Hendry must internalize and go by as he builds a roster for 2010. (Not necessarily in priority order.)

1. Stop fixing "problems" that do not exist. I think this is one we can all agree on; the troubles with the 2009 Cubs began with the decision made at the organizational meetings last fall that "we're not lefthanded enough", a mantra particularly of Lou Piniella's, due to the Dodgers' RHP-centric pitching staff in the 2008 NLDS. The Cubs didn't lose that series because of a lack of LH batters, but since Lou (and the rest of the staff) thought that was the reason, they went out of their way to identify a "lefthanded, middle-of-the-order bat" that they could insert behind Derrek Lee and ahead of Ramirez. We are all familiar with the expensive disaster that produced so I won't rehash it here. I caution Hendry about this because they are about to do the same thing -- fix a nonexistent problem. "We need a speedy leadoff man", goes the managerial mantra. Well, no, Lou, you don't. A leadoff man's primary job is to get on base. You already have someone who can lead off and do that -- Kosuke Fukudome, who ranks 8th in the NL in walks, despite having almost 100 fewer plate appearances than the leader (Albert Pujols). The Cubs are 22-13 with Fukudome leading off this year (that's a 101-win pace for a full season). The last time Hendry went after this type of player, he traded three useful minor leaguers for Juan Pierre. Jim -- do not get sucked into this trap again.

2. Stop bidding against yourself for players. The first argument against this, you might think, is "Jason Marquis", but Marquis did what he was asked to do -- if the Cubs had kept him this year and he had produced the way he did in Colorado, the Cubs would have gotten fine 4th or 5th starter value for the $7 million a year average per year over the life of Marquis' contract. True, Hendry could have likely had Marquis for less, since no one else had expressed interest at the time. And you can't make the argument "Alfonso Soriano" about this, either, because Soriano had been offered six-plus years by the Phillies and seven by the Angels; the Cubs were determined at the time to make a statement in the free agent market. Soriano was the top free agent after 2006, and yes, the Cubs overpaid to get him. He may still be healthy and productive enough to be worth the deal, at least for the next 2-3 years. (Heaven help the Cubs in years 7 and 8, though.) No, what I'm talking about is paying $30 million for three years' worth of the iffy Milton Bradley when absolutely no other team was even after Bradley, much less offering three years. Or giving a two-year contract to Aaron Miles for any amount of money, when we now know there was at least one option (Andres Blanco) right in the Cubs' own farm system who could have done a better job for the league minimum. Advice to Jim: when you're thinking about doing this, don't. Just don't.

3. Stop giving out contracts that are longer than they need to be. Related to the last point, there was no need to give Marquis a three-year deal; two plus a mutual option would have likely done it, and then if the Cubs really did want to deal him last year, they could have arranged for the other team to pick up the option (if that team wanted him badly enough) or simply decline the option and let him go to free agency. This is particularly true in the case of Marquis; the return for him (Luis Vizcaino) was worthless, because the Cubs wound up dumping him and eating the contract. The same thing applies to the Miles and Bradley deals.

4. Stop trading for guys you think are good because you liked them five years ago, or are fond of their college coach. You don't have to guess who I'm talking about here; his name is Aaron Heilman. (And several years ago, his name was Michael Barrett.) It's great for a GM to be loyal to his players, and Hendry is someone a lot of MLB players want to play for, for this very reason. But any Mets fan could have told Hendry that Heilman had lost whatever command he had last year -- you should have heard the booing for Heilman when he came in at Citi Field, louder than I think I've ever heard for any returning former player -- and though Heilman has been better the last six weeks, he still was not worth losing Felix Pie (Pie, though he went to Baltimore, essentially was part of this deal because Garrett Olson, who was acquired for Pie, was part of the deal to the Mariners for Heilman). And really, Jim, isn't it time to stop the Notre Dame-Wrigley Express? As far as I can tell, there are four active major leaguers who went to ND: Heilman, Samardzija, Craig Counsell and Brad Lidge. All of those guys have issues. Enough already.

5. Stop handing out one-year renewal deals to players like candy. Chad Gaudin didn't throw very well and had a noted off-field incident in 2008. He didn't figure to play a major role in the 2009 rotation or bullpen, yet the Cubs signed him to a $2 million deal in December to avoid arbitration. Then he stunk it up in spring training, forcing the Cubs to simply release him and eat the contract; the Padres and Yankees later got replacement-level production for the league minimum. The Cubs could have gotten this sort of production out of Justin Berg or Esmailin Caridad, as it turned out. Gaudin should have been non-tendered in December.

6. Don't waste half a year's roster spot on a Rule 5 pick that your manager isn't going to use. Maybe David Patton would have pitched better if Lou Piniella had actually used him more than once every five games. We'll never know, obviously, but Lou essentially wasted a roster spot by relegating Patton to pitching in blowouts or in long extra-inning games. The Cubs could have used an extra bench player -- since Aaron Miles was useless -- because Lou was working with what was for all practical purposes an 11-man pitching staff. Lou and Jim deserve equal blame for this one -- and I hate to say it, but BCB poster BLou was right about this one. At this point, maybe it's best for the Cubs to stay out of the Rule 5 draft for a while.

7. Do more careful evaluations of your prospects and young players to maximize their value, whether it be in the major league lineup or in trades. It's clear now that the entire organization was split on Felix Pie's progress. Two years ago, his trade value would have been a lot higher than "Garrett Olson", and of course, now it's probably far higher than that again. Hendry sold on Pie at the lowest possible point, and he and Lou together dragged down a former top prospect's trade value (they did the same with Rich Hill, who could have been dealt after the 2007 season for a pretty good return, although few would have suggested it after Hill put together such a good season). This is another reason why it's silly to have played Bobby Scales in left field for even one game. Scales is a great story and maybe he's a 25th guy on someone's roster next year -- but his trade value is close to zero. Jake Fox, on the other hand, might either be a useful spare part for the 2010 Cubs or might have some trade value, but scouts aren't going to see it if he sits on the bench, Lou. This is where a GM has to have some input with his manager, not simply let the manager dictate the roster. In general, GM's shouldn't be making out lineups -- but Hendry, in this case, could have let Lou know that Fox should have been playing (and Fox should have also been playing 3B from the day after A-Ram went down, too).

8. Don't automatically think that you have to sign expensive free agents to get better. Last offseason, rather than sign Milton Bradley, the Cubs could have approached the White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Dye could have been available by trade; at the time it appeared the White Sox were trying to dump contracts. In fact, I wrote about this possibility last November. Dye didn't have a great year, but he was at least as good as Bradley without the baggage, and with Dye having a $12 million mutual option that will almost certainly be declined by the White Sox, he might be available for not too much money and years (see points 2 and 3). There may be other players available like this -- and, in fact, Hendry almost has to use this route to be able to move Bradley's contract. Magglio Ordonez is almost certain to be on the block, and though he had a terrible season, it's possible he could rebound and he's a lifetime .308/.389/.513 hitter in Wrigley Field (relatively small sample size of 90 PA). NOTE! Do not assume that because I mentioned Ordonez, he is the ONLY player I'd go after for such a deal. He's only one example. Another such player is Luke Scott, who would have looked pretty good in a Cubs uniform in 2009, and who is likely headed for a hefty raise in arbitration. Maybe the Cubs can do that if they can trade Bradley elsewhere. The point of all this to Jim Hendry is: get creative, the way you did when you pulled off the Nomar Garciaparra deal in 2004.

9. Get "good clubhouse guys". I mean, this should be a no-brainer. Any Cubs fan who's been around even for ten years knows that the 2003 Cubs, managed by a player's manager, Dusty Baker, succeeded in part because they had strong clubhouse leaders, Eric Karros and Damian Miller. Miller and Karros were sent packing before 2004, and the 2004 Cubs, despite having more talent and ability than the 2003 version, collapsed in the final week. The acrimony there was visible in public, with players calling the press box to bitch, along with some high-profile public trouble between the team and its broadcasters. I'm not saying those were the only reasons for the success or failure of those two teams, but they clearly did have some impact, particularly with a players' manager like Baker who pretty much lets the clubhouse run itself. If there are no strong player-leaders, such a clubhouse is an "inmates running the asylum" situation and the results are predictable. Similarly, the Cubs lost strong player-leaders Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood after 2008 and added one player who reportedly was not a good clubhouse presence. NOTE! I am NOT saying that the Cubs must go out and reacquire DeRosa and Wood. However, I am saying that I believe all successful teams have players like this in their clubhouse. Hendry needs to identify some such players who can both do this and be productive in the lineup, and acquire a couple of them. Without trying to ignite the stats debate again, I believe having guys like this does matter. (Of course, they should also be good players -- that goes without saying.)

10. Think outside the box. Jim Hendry did this when he managed to dump an unproductive Todd Hundley on the Dodgers and get back two useful players in Mark Grudzielanek and Karros, without whom the Cubs might not have won the division in 2003. He did it again in 2004 when he engineered the four-team trade that got Nomar to the North Side. He needs to be creative in his thinking again this year. Don't fall prey to the "this is what's wrong with us and we are going to go fix that no matter what it costs" thinking that helped ruin the 2009 Cubs. Be ahead of the curve; that's what helped the Cardinals do so well this year. Also, this could apply to the idea that Hendry might be able to find solutions just by looking in his own system for next year (say, Andres Blanco, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad) rather than scouring the waiver wire for someone else's discards (as he did this year with the Aaron's).

There may be more lessons than just these ten, but going by these simple precepts might help Jim Hendry build a 2010 Cubs team that will once again be the favorite to win the NL Central -- and this time, actually do it.

Chicago Cubs pitching rumors

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 21:19:49 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

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Here are a couple rumors coming from the north side of Chicago on this Monday afternoon:

Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano told reporters that he is so disappointed with his play in 2009, that if he doesn't see signs of improvement soon, he will retire. My knee-jerk reaction is this is 'Carlos being Carlos.' Zambrano did say "if it happens again next season, two seasons in a row, I'll quit." So he hasn't ruled out 2011 if he has another bad season, which he says won't happen because he already has an intensive offseason regimen to get himself back in shape.
After Rich Harden shut himself down for the rest of 2009, he said he wanted to return to the Cubs. Unfortunately, the Cubs aren't too interested. Harden's shoulder is very fragile, and his number suggest his shoulder isn't as strong as it has been. Harden has put up his highest numbers in ERA, WHIP, and opposing batters average since his first two seasons in the majors. My guess is he'll sign a two year deal worth 11.5 million dollars, plus incentives.
Cubs pitcher Randy Wells isn't having nearly as much success as he experienced in the first half of the season, but has pitched himself into consideration for the 2010 rotation. Wells has a 3.61 ERA since the All-Star break, with a 1.48 WHIP (compared to a 1.12 WHIP in the first half). Wells has pitched in 184 1/3 innings, the most in his professional career.
The Cubs priorities appear to be adding a leadoff hitter to fill in at second base or center field, meaning the Cubs may go with in-house options in their rotation. Relief prospect John Gaub is a candidate to make the major league club next season, while Jeff Samardzija and Tom Gorzelanny will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation. One interesting free agent could be Randy Wolf, who is likely looking at a two year deal worth 14-16 million dollars.

Shark Homers, But Cubs Lose To Brewers; Milton Bradley "Apologizes"

Al — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 12:51:05 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Jeff Samardzija congratulated after his home run. He pitched well; perhaps there is hope for him for 2010.

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The CSN production crew showed, at one point during last night's telecast, video pointing out the differences in Jeff Samardzija's motion in his first, disastrous, start on August 12, and last night. Back in August he wasn't bringing the ball fully back, more or less "pushing" it to the plate; last night he had more of a full extension, hiding the ball behind his back briefly before delivery. The results were better; he gave up only five hits and a walk in five innings and threw 54 strikes in 82 pitches. He had good velocity (hitting 97 on the CSN and stadium speed pitch meters) and his breaking ball looked better; the lack of a good breaking pitch has been one of the biggest criticisms of Samardzija becoming a solid major league pitcher.

Unfortunately, two of those hits were home runs; the one by Prince Fielder came with a man on base and the homer Shark allowed to Jody Gerut was the difference in a 3-2 Cubs loss to the Brewers that reduced their elimination number to 4.

There's no shame in giving up a home run to Fielder; Samardzija became the 39th different pitcher to allow one to him this year. Gerut? Not so much, although the Chicago-area native has had a good September (.327/.377/.551, with 3 HR in 49 AB, two of the HR off Cubs pitching) in an attempt to let baseball people know that he'd like a job in 2010.

Meanwhile, Samardzija's HR cut the deficit to 2-1 and Bobby Scales' RBI double in the 7th made it 3-2 after Gerut's HR. But once again, the Cubs could not get a runner home from scoring position with less than two out; Scales did make it to third but Felipe Lopez made a nice catch of a floater that Ryan Theriot nearly got into right field, and that was the end of the Cubs' best chance to tie the game. Credit also must be given to Brewers' journeyman starter Chris Narveson, who struck out ten.

Unfortunately, the Milton Bradley merry-go-round continues for another day; yesterday he issued an apology for his recent actions in a written statement, which read:

"I chose Chicago as a free agent," Bradley said in a statement, "because I wanted to be part of finally bringing a championship to Cubs fans. I expected to have a great season and I am deeply disappointed by my performance and the team's struggles. I played every game with everything that I had and wanted to desperately win.

"My frustration and disappointment boiled over and I said and did certain things that I regret," he said. "In hindsight, I wish that I had handled certain things differently and I apologize for those things that did not work out for the better.

"The air has been cleared," he said, "and we all want to move on and look forward to better days."

Wow. There's so much wrong with that statement that I can't even really begin to dissect it, except for this: it's yet another example of the 21st Century Celebrity Apology, which is vetted by a lawyer and carefully crafted to say nothing while appearing to apologize. Look at what he actually apologized for:

I apologize for those things that did not work out for the better.

What on Earth does that mean? No specifics, no people mentioned, no one specifically apologized to? All of a sudden "the air has been cleared"? I'm tired of seeing these sorts of apologies, which basically boil down to "I'm sorry you caught me being an idiot, please forgive me so I can keep making these enormous sums of money."

Here's what a real Milton Bradley apology should have looked like:

I truly did want to become a Chicago Cub to bring the team, the organization and the best fans in baseball the championship they have longed for, for over a century. My performance was beneath my own expectations for myself and I wish I had done better on the field and the team had won more games and we were headed to the playoffs.

Recently, I said some things to the Daily Herald's Bruce Miles that were said in anger and frustration and I want to apologize to those I offended.

I apologize to my teammates. I said I worked "harder" than anyone on the team. This is not true. Every single member of the Cubs works hard to better his performance and win, and I don't want them to think I didn't appreciate them as teammates. I am sorry.

I apologize to Jim Hendry. He put his faith in me by investing $30 million of the team's money for me to perform, and I let him down.

I apologize to the entire Cubs organization. I told Bruce Miles it wasn't a positive environment, and that they haven't won for 100 years because of "negativity". That certainly is not true of all the dedicated people on the coaching staff, the scouting staff, and the rest of the people who work hard every day in the office. They all want to win. I apologize to each and every one of them.

I apologize to the media. I'm a private person and sometimes I don't react well to some of the questions you ask. But that doesn't mean, as I told Bruce Miles, that you are "bashing" me. I know you have a job to do, just as I do. I am sorry.

I apologize to all Cubs fans. I wanted to win for you very badly, but I failed and because I was upset at myself, I took it out on you. There were a few bad fans who made nasty and uncalled-for remarks to me, but I don't want you to think that I believe you are all that way. I am sorry.

Now that would be a real apology and if Milton -- or, for that matter, any athete or celebrity caught doing wrong -- would issue such an apology, I think people would go a long way toward forgiving him.

But the "apology" he did issue? Nothing but cover-my-butt. The Cubs may have to eat a significant amount of Bradley's contract to move him, or possibly even release him and pay off the entire deal. It will be an expensive lesson learned for Jim Hendry -- who should have seen this coming -- and the organization as they move into the Tom Ricketts era.

Brewers 3, Cubs 2

KLSnow — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 02:33:38 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Chris Narveson throws during the first inning Wednesday.

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W: Chris Narveson (2-0)
L: Jeff Samardzija (1-3)
S: Trevor Hoffman (35)

HR: Prince Fielder (42), Jody Gerut (9), Jeff Samardzija (1)

MVP: Chris Narveson (+.190)
LVP: Jason Kendall (-.054)

Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage

If you missed tonight's game, you missed one of 2009's most unlikely pitchers' duels.

Jeff Samardzija was pretty good for the Cubs, holding the Brewers hitless for the first two innings before the Brewer batters figured him out a bit, and Prince Fielder and Jody Gerut took him deep. He also connected for his first major league hit, a second-deck home run to right.

Chris Narveson, though, was that much better: He only needed 70 pitches to get through 5 2/3 innings, allowed just one earned run (Samardzija's home run), walked none and struck out ten. Amazingly, he was pulled with two outs in the sixth inning after just 70 pitches.

At the plate, Jody Gerut remained hot, going 1-for-4 with his ninth home run, and Prince Fielder supplied the other two runs with a homer in the fourth. The Brewers managed just five hits in the game, and the 5-9 hitters combined to go 1-for-14.