SB Nation - Fernando Nieve

2009 Mets Transaction Register, Part 2

Eric Simon — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 10:15:22 -0000

Oliver Perez doing his impression of a Mets fan watching Oliver Perez pitch. (AP Photo/Matt York)

And now, the dramatic conclusion of the epic, award-winning series that began last week.

January 22, 2009

Signed Freddy Garcia to a minor league contract. Garcia was competing for the fifth starter/long man role in Spring Training, but he was first terrible and then hurt (or maybe it was the other way around). Upon his return, he stunk in two starts for Buffalo before being waived and picked up by the White Sox where he posted a 2.90 tRA in 56 innings. That should be enough to get him a Major League deal in 2010, maybe even from the Mets!

January 23, 2009

Signed Rob Mackowiak to a minor league contract. Appeared in two games with Triple-A Buffalo and zero with the Mets. He was pretty solid on a fantasy team I had five or six years ago, but has never really been an above average player and could be done as a big leaguer at age 33.

February 2, 2009

Signed Oliver Perez for three years/$36 million. Analysis here. A day that will live in infamy, as the Mets offered three more years and thirty-six million more dollars than anyone else to secure the rights to one of the least dependable -- but most mature! -- pitchers in baseball. Perez's 6.94 tRA, -0.7 WAR and 1.92 WHIP would have been vindication enough, but he topped that off by spending three-fifths of the season on the disabled list. Given his negative win value, perhaps that was actually for the best. At roughly $4.5 million per win, Perez would have to be worth 8-9 wins over the next two seasons to justify his contract.

February 5, 2009

Signed Elmer Dessens to a minor league contract. Dessens should never have seen the light of day, but with injuries and ineptitude swallowing the Mets' 2009 season, Dessens managed to appear in 28 games in relief, showing decent control and a proclivity for groundballs (yet he still allowed five homeruns in 32.2 innings). He wasn't the worst pitcher the Mets had, and was probably quite a bit better than expected, but more playing time should expose him as a below-average reliever.

February 11, 2009

Signed Jose Valentin to a minor league deal. Didn't play a professional game in 2009. Maybe check the Ground Round?

February 13, 2009

Signed Ramon Martinez to a minor league deal. Hit .167/.182/.214 in 44 plate appearances with the Mets. Had a -2.6 UZR at shortstop in limited action.

February 14, 2009

Signed Livan Hernandez to a minor league deal. A longshot to make the club, Hernandez out-pitched Freddy Garcia in Spring Training and joined the Mets in the season's second week. Apart from a few good starts against the Nationals, Hernandez was mostly pretty bad, even for a fifth starter. He also loved donuts.

February 27, 2009

Signed Ron Villone to a minor league deal. Villone never pitched for the Mets and was nothing special after Washington picked him up. He's from Englewood, NJ, for whatever that's worth.

March 10, 2009

Released Duaner Sanchez. This move seemed smart at the time, looked dumb when Filthy shut down the Mets in the opening series at Citi Field, but went back to looking smart when the Padres likewise released Sanchez after running up a 9.00 ERA and 2.36 WHIP in 11 innings.

March 14, 2009

Claimed Fernando Nieve off waivers from Houston. Some Nieve analysis here. Not a bad gamble. Nieve was only 26 and throws in the mid-nineties, and managed a 2.95 ERA in seven starts with the Mets. Unfortunately, he walked too many and struck out too few to believe his low runs allowed rate is at all sustainable.

March 30, 2009

Signed Ken Takahashi to a minor league contract. Some analysis of one of his appearances here. Tak wasn't terrible, and was fairly dominant against righties in limited action. He was released yesterday, so, smell you later, Tak.

April 5, 2009

Signed Gary Sheffield as a free agent. The Mets paid Sheffield the league minimum (actually, a prorated portion of the league minimum) while the Tigers picked up the rest of his $14 million salary. Sheffield was worth 1.8 WAR offensively, though his defense in leftfield was woeful. UZR has him at -11.1, though it's not clear how much that is affected by the fact that UZR is still using Shea Stadium's dimensions. If that mark holds, Sheffield's overall value, including defensive adjustments, was barely above replacement (0.2 WAR). He could still be a useful designated hitter somewhere.

April 11, 2009

Released Marlon Anderson. Boo to the yah. Anderson was decent as a pinch hitter with the Mets in 2005, remarkable in 77 plate appearances after they claimed him from the Dodgers in 2007, but all kinds of terrible in 2008 and made four hapless pinch hitting appearances in 2009 before mercifully getting the heave-ho.

April 25, 2009

Signed Mike Lamb to a minor league contract. Played almost a full season in Triple-A and didn't hit a lick.

May 30, 2009

Traded Ramon Castro to the White Sox for Lance Broadway. Trade analysis here and discussion here; Castro's greatest hits here. I always liked Ramon; he had more pop than can usually be expected from a catcher, and he was big and huggable. He was also oft-injured and rumored to be difficult to deal with. He hit .184/.262/.382 with the White Sox (he also caught Mark Buerhle's perfect game). Broadway was terrible in Triple-A and with the Mets; his greatness may not extend beyond his naturally porn star-ish name.

June 5, 2009

Claimed Pat Misch off waivers from the Giants. His 4.12 ERA in 22 appearances -- including seven starts -- isn't supported by his peripherals, as Misch struck out just 3.5 batters per nine innings while walking 2.9 and allowing 1.4 homeruns. Could be worth an emergency start, but if he makes 22 appearances again the Mets are in trouble.

July 10, 2009

Traded Ryan Church to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur. Trade coverage here, here, here, here, and here. To his credit, Francoeur was worth around 1.6 WAR with his bat after the trade (his defense dragged that down a bit); Church was worth around half that in half the playing time with the Braves. 2010 is Francoeur's final year of arbitration eligibility, though there's always the (horrifying) possibility of the Mets signing him to a multi-year deal. I genuinely want Francoeur to succeed and he seems like a nice enough guy, I just find it hard to believe that he will ever be even an average big leaguer given his steadfast refusal to use the strike zone to his advantage.

August 6, 2009

Traded Greg Veloz to the Nationals for Anderson Hernandez. Hernandez is a replacement-level shorstop and slightly better than that as a second-baseman (the difference owing to his above-average defense at second). He can't hit and probably never will, though it's not as if Veloz is anything to write home about.

August 25, 2009

Traded Billy Wagner to the Red Sox for Chris Carter and Eddie Lora. More here. The Mets cleared around $4 million and picked up a couple of warm bodies. Carter could be useful against righties.

A Simple Request Regarding Niese

James Kannengieser — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 15:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Go get'em Jona-Fin

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Jon Niese makes his return to the major leagues tonight, after dominating AAA since his May demotion to the tune of 71.2 IP, 57 K's, 18 BB's and a 3.01 ERA. He should never have been sent down, as the Mets Brainstorm likely based their decision on his 5.91 ERA rather than his 5.0 K/BB and 50% GB% (in a small sample of just 10.2 innings pitched). Why Niese was allowed just 1 poor start while other inferior pitchers were allowed 3 before risk of demotion is perplexing. Regardless, he is back now and my request for the Brainstorm is simple: leave him up for the rest of the season. Don't be frightened by his inevitable blow-up start(s) - he is certainly the 3rd best, and maybe the 2nd best, starting pitcher on the roster. Give him 12 starts to finish the season; give him the chance to fail.

Fortunately this is a request I think will be heeded because there just aren't enough active arms in this organization to go around. John Maine is probably done for the year; ditto Fernando Nieve. The ideal situation would also include dropping Livan Hernandez from the rotation and a call-up of Nelson Figueroa. It wouldn't be a drastic, season changing improvement. However, if given the choice between a 34(?) year-old glorified batting practice pitcher who has lucked his way to a few WINZZ against the Nationals or a 35 year-old AAA All-Star who would likely perform slightly below league average, I'll take the latter.

Make It Interesting And Give Barry Bonds A Call

James Kannengieser — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 17:30:09 -0000

For the first time in as long as I can remember, watching the Mets play is not Plan A of my summer existence. Livan Hernandez is pitching tonight? Maybe "Wipeout" is on. Oliver Perez going against the Nationals? Let's go rent "Watchmen" from that dollar machine at the supermarket instead. Injuries are clearly the main culprit this season. However, watching players like Omir Santos, Jeff Francoeur, and Livan is frustrating, considering the thought process behind their significant playing time. It took a torn quadriceps from Fernando Nieve for Jon Niese to finally get the call from AAA. That he has been in the minor leagues since mid-May is indefensible. In sorry times like this, one option is to call up minor leaguers to see what they can do. Outside of Niese, Nick Evans, and a few others, there aren't too many legitimate options though. To this end, I am suggesting the Mets look into signing Barry Bonds through the rest of the season. It would make this team more interesting to watch and also improve the product on the field.

Bonds did not play in 2008 but was looking for work before this season. According to this article about his farcical legal proceedings, he is "at home awaiting trial and hoping that a major league team will ask him to play again." For the sake of this post, I'll assume he is open to playing baseball again at a reasonable salary. Let's look at his numbers from 2007:

PA	wOBA	UZR	+/- Runs	Fangraphs WAR
477	.429	-8.7	-7	3.9

These are borderline All-Star caliber numbers, with his ridiculously good offense compensating for the poor defense. How this was his last major league season is pretty odd. Yes, he's supposedly a big jerk but so is everyone at one time or another. Yes, he used PEDs but who really cares anymore. A team like the Royals continues to play sub-replacement dreck like Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs, but won't take a flier on Bonds. Seriously?

Bonds turns 45 tomorrow, which is ancient for a major leaguer. He hasn't taken a major league swing in 22 months. Considering these factors, there is no guarantee about his performance level. The Marcel projection system took a stab this offseason, projecting Bonds to have an .887 OPS in 248 plate appearances. You already knew this, but an .887 OPS would lead the current Mets roster. To be conservative, let's knock that down to .830 (say .240/.370/.460) and -4 in the field over ~150 plate appearances, covering the remaining 2 months of the season. Using some quick and dirty math, this would make him a ~.5 WAR player the rest of the way, which is more than can be expected from most of the current roster.

Why trot out replacement level outfielders like Cory Sullivan, who has neither youth nor upside, when Bonds is available? Barry would likely be more valuable than Sullivan or Francoeur, and atleast has a chance to be an offensive force. If/when Gary Sheffield returns, the 2 could form a solid no-field, decent-hit left field platoon of angst. Also, fans' interest might be piqued and more tickets could be sold. I know I would be more likely to see a game at Citi Field if Bonds was in left field. Justifying the price of admission, parking, food, etc. is hard to do these days for non-Johan games. One final benefit would be observing the collective aneurysm had by the "Holy Writers" on sports pages everywhere upon the return of the worst human being to ever walk the earth.

The season is already a total circus, so signing a polarizing figure like Bonds wouldn't be too outrageous. I have spent a lot of time in the past advocating things that the Mets front office would probably never consider. I won't stop now. To Dumb, Dumber, and Dumberer (Ricco, Minaya, and Bernazard): Call Barry Bonds's agent and ask how the home run king is doing. You did the almost the same thing with 40 year-old Gary Sheffield and that has worked out quite well.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 15:01:50 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Jeff Karstens is stopped by umpire Chad Fairchild, right, and Jason Kendall from getting to Chris Smith after being hit by a pitch in the eighth inning on Monday. No players were ejected, and the Pirates won 8-5. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Some things to read while changing your misleading name.

Thanks to Tristarscoop for picking up the slack while I was away yesterday. Between getting married, honeymooning, buying a house, moving, being in another wedding and now a funeral, I feel like I've been away more than I've been home in the last two months, but (knock on wood) I should be back for the long haul now...at least through the end of the week.

Did you skip out early on last night's game? I almost went to bed in the seventh inning and would have missed the bench clearing incident involving Chris Smith and Jeff Karstens. Smith hit Karstens with a pitch in the eighth inning but later said the pitch wasn't intentional, which is probably the same thing Karstens said after hitting Ryan Braun in April. This HBP had some increased historical significance, being the 600th plunking at PNC Park.

Because the mess happened so late last night, possibly after many Brewer bloggers had gone to bed, there wasn't a lot of reaction to it on the web this morning. Don't be surprised, though, if Jason Kendall picks up a suspension of a game or two for his actions in the shoving match that followed. Kendall shoved Jeff Karstens down the first base line and was later involved in a shouting match with Pirates pitching coach Joe Kerrigan.

The incident also overshadowed the Brewer debut of Felipe Lopez. Lopez missed an early flight because he was waiting for his bats and would not have been in the starting lineup if not for the rain delay, but went 4-for-4 with a triple and a walk, becoming the first Brewer to record four hits in their debut since Chuckie Carr in 1996. TheJay sent me that link, and also this note:

By the by, it took Jody Gerut only 20 games (5 starts) over six weeks to reach four hits.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic discussed the D-Backs' reasons for trading Lopez. He (Lopez, not Piecoro) stands a good chance of being a Type B free agent this offseason, but had also been vocal about enjoying playing in Arizona. The D-Backs would have had to offer him arbitration to receive any compensation if he left, but weren't willing to pay him the $5-6 million he would have received if he accepted the offer. They also seem to think Roque Mercedes is similar in value to the compensation pick they could have received.

Manny Parra has allowed just 12 baserunners in 13 innings since returning from AAA and lowered his ERA from 7.52 to 6.37 in the process. Has he figured it out? Zach Sanders of Baseball Digest Daily seems to think so.

In the minors:

Cody Adams, the Brewers' second round pick from 2008, has been suspended for 50 games after testing positive for amphetamines. (Also noted in FanShot) Adams wasn't pitching well for the Timber Rattlers in the first place, but will now be set even farther back.
While the struggle to draw fans to games in Huntsville has drawn some negative attention this season, the Nashville Sounds are just happy the attention isn't on them. Despite making some improvements to Greer Stadium, the Sounds' attendance is down from last season, and ranks 15th in the 16-team PCL.
2009 draftee Josh Prince is the Prospect of the Week over at Between the Green Pillars. Battlekow interviewed Prince back on June 23.
The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers lost 15-1 to Lansing last night but still lead by two games in the Midwest League West Division Second Half Standings.
The Cub Reporter has a nice interview with Nashville hitting coach Sandy Guerrero, perhaps better known for being Prince Fielder's BP pitcher at the Home Run Derby.

Ever thought about attending a Brewer Fantasy Camp? Bill Schroeder has the sales pitch for you.

On rankings:

FanGraphs ranked Ryan Braun #8 in their Trade Value rankings, one spot ahead of Tim Lincecum. I love Braun, but if the Giants called and offered Lincecum I'd have a hard time turning it down.
The Brewers dropped four spots to 18th in WhatifSports' Power Rankings.

Around the majors:

Angels: Released reliever Rudy Seanez, who had been pitching in AAA. (h/t Diamond Notes)
A's: Placed Jason Giambi on the DL with a strained quad.
Mets: Placed starter Fernando Nieve on the DL with a leg injury.
Nationals: Placed Scott Olsen on the DL with a back injury and designated Julian Tavarez for assignment.
Orioles: Acquired reliever Cla Meredith from the Padres for infielder Oscar Salazar.
Padres: Placed catcher Edgar Gonzalez, who was hit in the head by a pitch over the weekend, on the DL.
Phillies: Designated reliever Tyler Walker for assignment.
Rangers: Placed Frank Francisco on the DL with a mild case of pneumonia.
Red Sox: Designated Julio Lugo for assignment.
Reds: Placed Ramon Hernandez on the DL with inflammation in his knee.
Tigers: Placed Joel Zumaya on the DL with a sore shoulder.
Twins: Signed Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league deal.

Last week I mentioned that I had participated in SBNation's NL Central Roundtable, and linked to part 1 of the conversation. Part 2 is up over at Viva El Birdos. It was written prior to the Lopez acquisition, but there's still some relevant stuff in there.

Happy birthday today to former Brewers Lance Painter (42), Geoff Jenkins (35) and CC Sabathia (29).

Oh, and I already knew Amy K. Nelson was a baseball writer, but discovering that she's also an old school video gamer made her infinitely cooler in my book.

Drink up.

Halladay Applesauce - Mets reject Blue Jay offer, Minaya and Manuel safe, 9 straight for Phillies, Manny and Mantle

Joe Budd — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 14:03:39 -0000

Just when you thought they were out, they pull you back in. Not really because of the play on the field, but because of uncofirmed Jon Heyman reports of a rejected Halladay trade. There's much to say about the merits and drawbacks of the rumored trade, but at the very least, it gives us more to talk about than whether the Mets can get anything for Livan Hernandez.

Meet the Mets

Roy Halladay! Jon Heyman reported last night that Omar Minaya rejected a trade for the Toronto right hander that would have sent Fernando Martinez, Jon Niese, Ruben Tejada, and Bobby Parnell out of Queens. Andrew Beaton makes the case that the contract isn't worth one year of, at best, second place baseball. Meanwhile, Matt Cerrone is distracted by the shiny new name.

Surrounding this news came the story that Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya received the vote of confidence from the Wilpons. Shockingly, this signal does not mean that they will stay.

Fernando Nieve's thigh tear will cost him six weeks on the DL. Jonathan Niese is likely to start on Saturday in his place. Rob Neyer says it's about time. In the meantime, New York called up Cory Sullivan.

The Daily Stache has a disturbing prediction on the health of Carlos Beltran.

Wilmer Flores hit his third home run of the season last night.

Where have you gone, Nelson Doubleday? We need you.

There's even talk now of Livan Hernandez playing first base. Ugh. I love the blogosphere.

The New York Observer profiles the Mets' great broadcasting trio.

Mets Geek takes a look at the promising pitching prospect Kyle Allen.

34 years ago yesterday, Joe Torre hit into an MLB record four double plays.

For those of you in Manhattan, be sure to check out tonight's Amazin' Tuesday at Two Boots Tavern.

There is going to be a Voltron movie. No word on Carlos Beltran's availability to play the lead.

Around the NL East

The Nationals are now 0-5 under Jim Riggleman.

Washington starting pitcher Scott Olsen will have surgery to repair a small tear in his left labrum.

Philadelphia won its 9th straight without Roy Halladay.

Ken Rosenthal argues that Philadelphia could easily move from Halladay to Cliff Lee, should their first choice fall through.

The Phillies might also be looking to solidify their bullpen; they are scouting Chad Qualls. Qualls would probably cost a quality starting pitching prospect.

Tommy Hanson struck out 11 Giants en route to an 11-3 Atlanta victory.

Following Florida's 3-2 victory over San Diego yesterday, the Marlins optioned (isn't that a really nice way of saying demoted?) Andrew Miller to Triple-A.

No clear signal yet telling us if the Marlins are buyers or sellers.

Around MLB

Sacrifice bunts are Communist.

Manny Ramirez passes Mantle and Jason Schmidt wins his comeback.

Tracy Ringolsby lists the five best fits for Roy Halladay. The Mets don't make the list because they are too stupid.

The Pirates beat the Brewers 8-5, ending a 17-game losing streak against Milwaukee.

9 Games Out Applesauce - Ollie's Ceiling, Lugo not a Met yet, Paul McCartney, Jason Schmidt, and random research

Joe Budd — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 14:08:24 -0000

Even the British Open couldn't even live up to my hopes or provide any sanctuary from a crappy sports weekend, as Stewart Cink basically punched everyone's father/grandfather in the face on national TV. Oh yeah, the Mets played too. Once again, thank goodness for the Washington Nationals, otherwise the Mets would be a deservedly last place team.

Meet the Mets

Joe Sokolowski from Mets Geek believes that we have already seen the ceiling for Oliver Perez. That was fast. It's like we live in the Shire.

Well, at least we'll have a 1969 Met reunion to look forward to in August.

The rumors were flying around that Julio Lugo would take Tim Redding's roster spot. That did not happen and Redding had to go 3 innings for the Mets as Fernando Nieve was carted off with a quad injury. Any move involving Lugo will have to wait until the shortstop is a free agent, otherwise the Mets would be on the hook for that ridiculous contract.

You can add Gary Sheffield to the list of ailing Mets.

Metsradamus does an autopsy on the team and blames Jose Valentin.

The Daily Stache wants to keep JJ Putz around, if only as trade bait.

At least the Mets can host an amazing concert, even if it starts an hour late.

Around the NL East

The Phillies won their 8th straight game, sweeping the Marlins, and taking a nine game lead over New York. At least we can mock John Mayberry for striking out a lot. Woohoo...

Braves reliever Mike Gonzalez returned last night for the Braves and shut out the Mets in his one inning of work. Starting pitcher Tim Hudson made a pain-free rehab start in single-A, throwing 27 pitches.

We probably won't see another pitcher like Greg Maddux for a long time.

The new Florida Marlin stadium looks really cool. I'm a fan of the modern look, rather than the new retro. Despite the tradition of recognizing new stadia (grammar h/t to the trash cans outside of Shea), Bud Selig remained quiet on its All-Star chances.

The Nationals have released Julian Tavarez and have promoted Logan Kensing.

Around MLB

Remember Freddy Garcia? He of the 80 mph fastball? Well, he may wind up back in Chicago.

Jason Schmidt is scheduled to make his first start in two years tonight.

Scott Schoeneweis does not want his wife's cause of death to be made public.

Michael Wuertz's slider has caused batters to swing and miss 49.7% of the time, the highest rate in the bigs.

Former Yankee Aaron Small battled encephalitis and was pitching in this weekend's Old-Timers' Day.

Speaking of Old Timers, the Yankees are expected to make "prospect" Sergio Mitre their fifth starter.

The Diamondbacks dumped Felipe Lopez on to the Brewers.

Minnesota has signed Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league deal.

In other news about second basemen the Mets could have/should have signed, Orlando Hudson is proving he was one of the value free agents of the off-season.

And, finally, baseball research goes off the deep end in the Wall Street Journal. Looks like Roger Clemens naming all his kids with "K" names actually may have handicapped their hitting careers.

#1, #2, #3, #4, and #5 NL Starters At The Halfway Point

James Kannengieser — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 11:30:09 -0000

When describing starting pitchers, we often say things like "he's an ace" or "he's a #4 pitcher". A pet peeve of mine is the wrongful labeling of a pitcher to a certain rotation spot, based on subjective perception rather than objective fact. Poll a group of baseball fans about this topic and you will likely receive a vast array of opinions. My take, which is similar to the ones shared in this post and this post, is that if a pitcher is in the top 1/5 of starters in his league, then he should be called a #1 starter. The next 1/5 are #2's, the next 1/5 are #3's, etc. I pulled some statistics from Fangraphs to devise a quick and dirty way of classifying National League starters at the halfway point of the season (the Mets have played 81 games, hence I'm calling this the halfway point).

A total of 7,613 innings were thrown by 121 different NL starters through Sunday. I put together a spreadsheet of all these pitchers, their innings pitched, and their FIP (fielding independent pitching). Dividing 7,613 by 5, I created 5 groups of 1522.2 innings. Beginning with the pitcher who boasts the best FIP (P.J. Walters, 1.04 FIP through 4 innings pitched), I summed innings until reaching 1522.2 to determine #1 pitchers. I did the same all the way through the bottom spot on the list, filled by John Koronka and his 11.90 FIP. Standard caveats apply here - FIP doesn't account for batted balls like tRA, it isn't park adjusted, etc., but it's better than ERA for evaluating a pitcher's performance. Here are the results, showing pitcher classification, the number of pitchers that fit that classification, and the corresponding FIP:

Rank	Pitchers	FIP Range
#1	22	0.00-3.53
#2	19	3.54-3.95
#3	19	3.96-4.55
#4	24	4.56-5.09
#5	37	5.10+

Keep in mind that of the top 22 pitchers, only 9 have thrown atleast 100 innings. Rodrigo Lopez owned the Mets on Friday night and has a 2.25 FIP through 6.1 innings, but calling him a true #1 is a stretch. Here is how the Mets' pitching staff stacks up, using this method:

Pitcher	IP	FIP	Rank
Jon Niese	10.2	1.72	High #1
Johan Santana	109.1	3.91	Low #2
Mike Pelfrey	88.2	4.10	High #3
Livan Hernandez	96.2	4.68	High #4
Fernando Nieve	27.2	4.74	High #4
John Maine	61.2	4.90	Low #4
Tim Redding	47.2	5.05	Low #4
Nelson Figueroa	6	5.70	Low #5
Oliver Perez	21.2	6.04	Low #5

While it's true that Jon Niese should be freed from his minor league shackles, it's doubtful he would mantain his high #1 status. This means the Mets' best starter has been the equivalent of a low #2 pitcher, and most innings pitched by starters have been by #4 and #5 types. Only 14 starters have been worse than Ollie, but he'll get a shot to improve on that starting Wednesday night. Peruse the spreadsheet if you like, and here are some notable names and their classifications:

Carlos Zambrano
Roy Oswalt
Johnny Cueto (maybe not after last night's Phillies shellaquing)
Randy Wolf
Ryan Dempster

Nieve Again: Phillies 4, Mets 1

Eric Simon — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 00:04:08 -0000

Alex Cora: 3-for-4
Everyone else: 3-for-28

And the only run was driven in by pitcher Fernando Nieve, whose bat was just a little better than his arm today. Nieve allowed four runs on six hits and six walks (!) in 5.2 innings in what might be his last start (though Tim Redding will be moved to the bullpen to make room for Oliver Perez). Though they may be reluctant to go with three lefties in the starting rotation, the Mets really have to consider dumping Nieve in favor of Jon Niese, who had a 2.94 ERA in 42.2 June innings, walking few and keeping the ball on the ground and in the park.

The Mets would've needed Steve Nebraska to win this afternoon with the way their offense flopped against Jamie Moyer and his 6.06 tRA. Moyer threw a ton of strikes and got plenty of groundballs, and the Mets struggled all day long trying to get anything going. The bottom of the order combined to plate the team's lone run in the fifth, but otherwise the offense mustered nothing of any consequence against Moyer and three relievers.

Meanwhile, Jimmy Rollins, who apparently hits nobody but the Mets, reached base three times and knocked in a pair while Shane Victorino picked up an RBI and three hits of his own. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard went just 1-for-7 with a walk (Howard saw only seven pitches in his four at-bats; Nick Evans saw 25 in his), but it didn't matter because the damage was done by the top of the order.

Johan Santana -- hopefully the good one -- takes the mound on Sunday afternoon against Joe Blanton as the Mets look to crawl back to within three games of the Phillies.

Swag Contest

Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.

SB Nation Coverage

* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* The Good Phight Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: Alex Cora, +11.0% WPA, Omir Santos, +6.3% WPA
Big losers: David Wright, -16.7% WPA, Luis Castillo, -12.7% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Nieve RBI single in fifth, +8.3% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Rollins two-run double in fourth, -10.3% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -10.2% WPA
Total batter WPA: -39.8% WPA
GWRBI!: Jimmy Rollins

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by MetsFan4Decades; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	MetsFan4Decades	67
2	AnthonyR	60
3	Jadden Hopkins	50
4	Evan_S	48
5	Outside Observer	38
6	twon8	22
7	EMSfan9	16
8	Pat Andriola	16
9	HEYJUDE	11
10	JohnPeterson	9

Phillies vs. Mets: July 3-5

Matt Swartz — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:38:48 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Joe Blanton closes out the series Sunday against Johan Santana. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

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After a 3-6 road trip, it seems the Phillies have finally solved their home field disadvantage...because they learned how to lose on the road, too. Well, they come home at a low point, just two games over .500 (39-37) and now tied with the Marlins for first, one game ahead of the Mets, and two ahead of the Braves. The Mets hobble into Philadelphia after winning a couple of one-run games against the Brewers to inch themselves back to .500. Suddenly, without doing all that much winning, the Mets are within striking distance. If they take two out of three, they'll be tied with the Phillies. If the Phillies can sweep them, they can increase their margin over the Mets all the way back to the four games that they found so comfortable a couple weeks ago. If the Mets sweep, it's suddenly the Phillies playing catch-up. It looks like we'll have quite a series on our hands.

The Phillies will call up Rodrigo Lopez to start Friday night's game. They still have not been able to fill the rotation spot since Myers went down, although Bastardo had a few good starts before getting injured. Fortunately for the Phillies, they will get to go up against Livan Hernandez, so it will probably be a high scoring battle.

Saturday night, Jamie Moyer will take another shot at the Mets team that has hit him so well. Fernando Nieve has been effective thus far in the majors this year, but his peripherals do not seem to indicate that performance is likely to last. This game could be pretty high scoring as well.

Joe Blanton's ERA is not so good, but he certainly has upped his performance this season. He's missing bats like never before, striking out nearly a batter per inning despite a career of mediocrity. There doesn't seem to be much cause if you look here. In fact, he doesn't seem to be missing any more bats than he used to, nor throwing more strikes. Seemingly, he just figured out a strategy to strike guys out for now. I doubt it will last, but hopefully he can fan a few Mets on Sunday. Johan Santana will close out the series for the Mets. He has had a few clunkers recently, but don't let the fool you. He's still one of the very best pitchers in the game and even the best have little runs of bad luck. The Phillies will have to be careful to build up his pitch count and foul off the pitches they can't hit well.

On the up side, Fernando Rodriguez threw 50 pitches in yesterday's Mets win and is probably unavailable tonight. They also used every other pitcher in their bullpen except for Bobby Parnell, so they could be vulnerable early in the series if the Phillies can knock Livan Hernandez or Fernando Nieve out early.

MATCHUPS:
Friday 7:05: Rodrigo Lopez (R) vs. Livan Hernandez (R)
Saturday 3:40: Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Fernando Nieve (R)
Sunday 1:35: Joe Blanton (R) vs. Johan Santana (L)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

METS

LINE UP

1) SS Alex Cora (L): .257/.356/.329

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 1B Daniel Murphy (L): .245/.313/.361

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

3) 3B David Wright (R): .338/.425/.488

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .288/.397/.508

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) RF Ryan Church (L): .292/.348/.392

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

6) CF Fernando Martinez (L):.178/.245/.278

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) C Brian Schneider (L): .239/.338/.418

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

8) 2B Luis Castillo (S):.274/.372/.327

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .262/.289/.418

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Argenis Reyes (S): .083/.154/.083

proj: .255/.300/.325
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 62%
iff: 0%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a good eye, pretty impatient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .697 vs .659 ops in minors; 1.7 vs 1.9 k/bb ops in minor
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like an opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .282/.313/.346

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .261/.335/.399
proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

1B/OF Nick Evans (R): .333/.360/.583

proj: .260/.320/.420
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 45%
iff: 10%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: poor eye, not impatient, so-so contact skill
r/l: .768 vs .914 ops; 2.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: CF Carlos Beltran (S): .336/.425/.527

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Livan Hernandez (R): 4.04 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 3/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Fernando Nieve (R): 2.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 3.34 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.71 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 14/40, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 4/25, 1 2B, 0 BB, 7 K
Utley: 4/24, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/23, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 6/22, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 7/20, 3 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 2/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/13, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.26 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.10 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 6/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 5/18, 1 2B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/17, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 6/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Tim Redding (R): 6.99 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.05 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 6/35, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 SF
Howard: 3/24, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Utley: 9/21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/19, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 7/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K
Stairs: 2/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 1/9, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Coste: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.04 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

DISABLED LIST: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.90 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 1.59 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/8, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB

Sean Green (R): 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 63% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Feliz: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.78 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/28, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/27, 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/19, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 5.22 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Feliz: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 3.78 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pat Misch (L): 1.80 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 66% fb, 22% ch, 12% cb, 1% sl
r/l: .827 vs .736 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .869 ops; 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb

Misch vs Phillies:

Victorino: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 BB< 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Elmer Dessens (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 8.46 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 65% fb, 35% sl
r/l: .726 vs .849 ops; 2.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .806 ops; 2.1 vs 2.1 k/bb

Dessens vs Phillies:

Stairs: 5/17, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Rollins: 5/15, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 1/7, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Feliz: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB< 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .209/.253/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .294/.360/.441

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.426/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.327/.532

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .264/.365/.480

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF John Mayberry (R): .250/.262/.575

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .287/.332/.414

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .238/.343/.371

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .250/.348/.390

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .134/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .244/.297/.451

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.420/.482

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .250/.250/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Lopez vs Mets:

Sheffield: 5/27, 3 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Reed: 2/14, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Church: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.05 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 5.88 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 14/61, 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K, 1 SF
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 19/41, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/33, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/20, 4 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 6/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Cora: 1/4, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac, 1 HBP
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Evans: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.08 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.98 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/21, 1 2B, 4 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 6/21, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Castillo: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 2/3,0 BB, 1 K
Sheffield: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.96 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 3/11, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 4/8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Church: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.98 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.57 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.46 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.63 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/15, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/9, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/9, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Reed: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
A.Reyes: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.29 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 3 K
Church: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.04 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.17 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/16, 5 BB, 1 K
Reed: 4/15, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/9, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
F.Martinez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.18 ERA, 9.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 6.39 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/26, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 2.00 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs. Mets:

Beltran: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): 2.84 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.18 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/6, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 53% in minors
pitches: 78% fb, 15% cb, 7% ch (in brief major league stint)
r/l: not a huge split in minors in terms of k/bb, RHB seem to hit it harder
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not faced any Mets

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Winning Streak Applesauce - Mets Sign Urbina, Royals Ban Rany, Joey Chestnut vs. Kobayashi

James Kannengieser — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 13:20:25 -0000

Down 5-0 against a pretty darn good pitcher in Paul Maholm, the Mets came back to win in extra innings (but not without some Frankie drama mixed in). For the umpteenth time, can everyone stop saying this team lacks leadership/edge/grission? I'm looking at you John Franco.

Meet the Mets

With the Phillies loss to the Braves last night, the Mets are just 1 game out of first place. Pitching matchups for the weekend are set:

Friday, July 3: Livan Hernandez vs. Rodrigo Lopez (making his first start since 2007)

Saturday, July 4: Fernando Nieve vs. Jamie Moyer

Sunday, July 5: Johan Santana vs. Joe Blanton

Check out Mets Geek for a preview. Lopez/Moyer/Blanton + Citizens Bank Park = No excuses not to hit some home runs. Tim McCarver and Kenny Albert will announce tomorrow's game on Fox. Hopefully everyone will be outside and as far away from a television as possible. Listen to Howie on the radio.

The international player signing period has begun and the Mets acted quickly by signing LHP Juan Urbina. Baseball America ranked him as the #8 international prospect. Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman, whom Buster Olney calls the "lefthanded Stephen Strasburg", defected while in the Netherlands.

Gordon Edes at Yahoo! is foolishly bearish on the Mets and their farm system, claiming that they "don’t have much to offer in a deal". Also, Ken Davidoff at Newsday lists the major trade deadline deals over the last few years.

Faith and Fear reminisces about the Roger McDowell and Lenny Dykstra for Juan Samuel trade from 20 years ago.

The Mets stayed in the same hotel in Pittsburgh that was hosting "Anthrocon 2009", a convention for people who like to dress in animal costumes. Weird. Reminds me of that bizarre scene at the end of "The Shining". That always freaked me out.

Around the NL East

Javier Vazquez had yet another FIP-fest (5.1 IP, 5 K, 0 BB) and the Braves scored 3 times in the 8th to beat the Phillies 5-2.

Fire Jim Bowden is not happy about Elijah Dukes's demotion.

The Marlins signed Minnesota castoff Luis Ayala. Enjoy him Fish fans, just don't let him face Greg Norton.

The Fightins' wonders what's wrong with Ryan Madson. I have a possible answer that isn't mentioned - maybe it's unsustainable for the guy to maintain a ~4 K/BB and 0 HR/FB%, as he had through June 14th?

This is one TV show I will not be watching.

Around MLB

Blogger and Baseball Prospectus co-founder Rany Jazayerli was "banned" by the Royals after publishing some critical words about the organization. The Royals later backed off some of their threats.

Beyond the Boxscore adds some objectivity to the interleague attendance discussion.

Jim Leyritz: douchelord.

R.J. Anderson at DraysBay bids adieu to Winston Abreu.

DodgerSims celebrates Christmas in July, with the return of Manny Ramirez.

Mike Silva continues the "Should Joba be in the bullpen?" discussion for some reason, which is only a discussion for the Beningos and Francescas of the world.

Colin Wyers at THT looks at the reliability of UZR. A couple takeaways:

Defensive metrics are less reliable than offensive metrics.
An infielder's UZR is more reliable than an outfielder's UZR.

Joey Chestnut is a slight favorite over Kobayashi in the July 4th Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. Anyone going?