SB Nation - Hiroki Kuroda

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:01:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre may be traded to fill a hole in the starting rotation.

Through three days of the winter meetings, the Dodgers haven't made any deals, but we do have a better idea of their plans this offseason. Randy Wolf signed with the Brewers today for $29.75 million over three years, leaving the Dodgers with a sizable void to fill in their starting rotation.

Actually, there are two holes to fill, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. It appears the Dodgers are still in the market for one starting pitcher, but general manager Ned Colletti said he is looking to fill one of the two open rotation slots from within. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported:

Colletti said he's comfortable holding the last rotation spot for a Spring Training competition involving James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. Colletti added left-hander Eric Stults to that group he originally listed on Tuesday.

In my mind, Elbert is the favorite of that group, with his electric left arm, but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. McDonald had success out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 8.70 strikeouts per nine innings), and I can see him returning to that role in 2010, even though I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. Both Haeger and Stults are out of options, so they will not only be fighting for a starting role at Camelback Ranch, but also will be fighting for their baseball lives.

How the Dodgers fill that other starting rotation slot has yet to be seen, but the Dodgers don't have much room in their budget without getting creative. If the Dodgers wanted to pay a pitcher $10 million a year, they would have either offered Wolf arbitration, or made an offer to him when presented the opportunity by Wolf's agent, Arn Tellem, today. Wolf's deal, coupled with Brad Penny's deal with St. Louis (one year, $7.5 million plus incentives) and the oft-injured Rich Harden's deal with Texas (one year, $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011), made it clear that most free agent pitchers are simply out of the Dodgers' price range. If they sign a free agent pitcher, it might be someone like a Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland, again. That is, if they come cheaply enough.

Another option to fill the starting pitching void is to trade Juan Pierre. The idea here is to swap Pierre's contract (two years, $18.5 million) for a high-priced pitcher in a swap of inflated contracts, using that money to pay for a position in need rather than for a fourth outfielder. Options here include:

		2009		2010 Projected
Pitcher	2010 Age	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP	Contract remaining
Bronson Arroyo	33	3.84	4.78	4.11	4.49	2010: $11m; 2011: $11m option ($2m buyout)
Aaron Harang	32	4.21	4.14	4.18	4.14	2010: $12.5m; 2011: $12.75m option ($2m buyout)
Paul Maholm	28	4.44	3.83	4.29	4.20	2 years, $11m total, plus $9.75m option for 2012
Nate Robertson	32	5.44	4.55	4.89	4.67	2010: $10m
Jeremy Bonderman	27	only 10 IP		4.43	4.22	2010: $12.5m
2010 Projections from Bill James Handbook					Contract info courtesy of the amazing Cot's

I would have thought Kevin Millwood was another trade option (due $12 million in 2010), but he was traded to the Orioles earlier Wednesday. Maholm may be a pipe dream, as his contract isn't all that onerous, but the Pirates seem interested in Pierre, so maybe there is a fit.

Matching up Pierre with a team directly might be tough, so a three-team trade may be the way to go. In fact, Pierre may be traded to fill a different hole, second base. Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports tweeted this on Wednesday night:

Dodgers are more concerned about 2B than letting on publicly, but 3-way trade tries at offing Pierre while filling 2B aren't working yet.

This is interesting, because in the report by Gurnick, Colletti showed a faith in Blake DeWitt manning the second base next season:

At second base, he's sounding more and more comfortable with DeWitt, although he still hopes to add a veteran from a group of free agents that includes Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Jamey Carroll and Felipe Lopez.

"Barring something not on the radar, it will be Blake DeWitt plus a veteran if we started the season today," Colletti said

Whether or not any budget constraints forced this philosophy, Colletti appears to have a faith in the Dodgers' young talent to play a big role in 2010. If you ask me, I think the Dodgers bring back one of Garland or Padilla, and bring back Belliard to caddy for the Blakes -- DeWitt at second and Casey at third. Which means the 2010 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2009 Dodgers in many ways, and the returning cast will have to step up.

Diamond Leung reported that Colletti expressed that same sentiment while showing faith in Chad Billingsley in an interview with Sirius XM:

"Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

The 2010 Dodgers need their guys to be better if they want to stay atop the NL West.

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 07:14:56 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

You know you're good when you are projected to strikeout 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2010, and that's a drop of nearly two strikeouts from 2009.

Browse more photos »

Last month, Sean Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way released his 2010 CHONE projections for offense. Now, we have the pitching projections as well. More info can be found at BaseballProjection.com. I have added the projections for many Dodgers, including some outgoing free agents, to go with the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. As more projection systems release their projections, I will add them so we can get a more complete overall preview of the 2010 Dodgers.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	115	4.15	4.30	4.46	7.98
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 Bill James	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 CHONE	151	3.58	3.68	4.65	9.42
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 CHONE	161	3.69	3.70	3.75	8.72
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 Bill James	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 CHONE	182	3.71	3.73	3.76	8.60
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 CHONE	158	4.04	4.24	2.28	6.04
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 Bill James	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 CHONE	154	4.32	3.99	2.45	6.31
2010 status	under contract

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 CHONE	124	4.43	4.44	3.63	7.48
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 Bill James	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 CHONE	163	4.42	4.38	3.09	6.52
2010 status	free agent

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 CHONE	152	4.91	4.77	3.55	6.34
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 Bill James	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 CHONE	155	4.70	4.74	3.60	6.27
2010 status	free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 CHONE	187	5.01	4.50	2.60	4.91
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 Bill James	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 CHONE	186	4.55	4.53	2.71	4.60
2010 status	free agent
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 CHONE	72	2.88	2.80	3.25	10.88
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 Bill James	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 CHONE	67	2.69	2.51	3.36	11.82
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 CHONE	43	3.77	4.01	4.60	8.79
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 Bill James	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 CHONE	52	3.63	3.77	3.98	9.35
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 CHONE	45	3.00	2.71	3.00	11.00
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 Bill James	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 CHONE	39	3.23	3.23	3.23	9.69
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	37	6.08	6.58	5.11	5.59
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 Bill James	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 CHONE	60	4.50	4.55	4.05	7.50
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	60	4.20	4.08	3.60	6.75
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 Bill James	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 CHONE	71	4.06	3.95	3.55	6.59
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	127	4.54	5.12	4.11	7.72
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 Bill James	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 CHONE	62	3.77	4.05	4.06	9.29
2010 status	under club control

Scott Elbert
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	43	3.98	4.36	5.65	10.47
2009 actual	19.2	5.03	4.73	3.20	9.61
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	47	3.64	3.81	4.60	10.72
2010 status	under club control

Cory Wade
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	53	3.74	4.02	2.55	7.30
2009 actual	27.2	5.53	4.13	3.25	5.86
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	62	4.21	4.41	3.05	7.11
2010 status	under club control

In addition, here are some other notable 2010 CHONE projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	138	4.89	4.61	3.72	6.59	under club control (out of options)
Charlie Haeger	170	4.98	5.14	4.34	6.51	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	49	4.41	4.48	3.12	6.43	free agent

Updated Dodger 1st Baseman Win Shares

Phil Gurnee — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 05:55:11 -0000

For the last two years I've done a rundown of Los Angeles Dodger Win Shares. In many circles Win Shares has become passe as WAR has become the stat of choice, but because I built the complete Win Share database based on data in the original book plus the subsequent Bill James Handbooks I haven't felt like letting go. For those who have never heard of Win Shares, it is a statistic created by Bill James the author of the great The Bill James Baseball Abstract series which changed many a baseball fans perception of the game. I used to link to a Rob Neyer review of Win Shares but the article is now gone. For a more recent story, THT compares WAR to Win Shares. THT used to carry their own tweaked version of Win Shares but stopped after the 2008 season. Here is what the 2008 Season Win Share breakdown looked like.

Sure Win Shares is not the be all stat, but it is still interesting to see how the breakdown works. It is a complex algorithm but the guts is that each team is credited with three win shares per actual win. Bill James then works his magic to allocate those wins based on statistical measures to each player on the team.

Here is the 2009 season update.

Los Angeles Dodgers 2009 Win Shares

Player	Win Shares
Matt Kemp	26
Andre Ethier	21
Orlando Hudson	20
Casey Blake	19
James Loney	18
Manny Ramirez	18
Rafael Furcal	17
Russell Martin	16
Jon Broxton	16
Randy Wolf	14
Juan Pierre	12
Clayton Kershaw	12
Chad Billingsley	9
Ramon Troncoso	8
Ronaldo Belisario	7
Hiroki Kuroda	5
Jeff Weaver	5
G Mota	4
Hong-Chih Kuo	3
Mark Loretta	3
James McDonald	3
Brad Ausmus	3

Castro and Stults had two each, while EyeChart, Wade, Abreu, Milton, Haeger, and Elbert had a single win share. Based on the formual the Dodgers would have had 285 win shares (95 * 3) to spread among it's players. I have no way of knowing how many win shares Sherrill(13), Belliard(7), and Padilla(8) had since they don't break them up per team. If you add up all of the Dodgers including those three we have 13 extra win shares which means they should be divided among the trade/waiver deadline pickups.

James Loney was the only 1st baseman of note to garner any Win Shares for the Dodgers in 2009. His season was quite pedestrian by most measures but he did have the 5th most win shares on the team in 2009 with 18. He's yet to crack the top 10 single season win share mark but after only three full seasons he's moved into 5th place on the all-time 1st baseman Win Share list passing Gil Hodges and Greg Brock. For many of you this is the first time you have seen this list, so I'll remind you that this only includes Los Angeles Dodgers. It has been 19 years since the last memorable season by a Dodger 1st baseman.

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman

Player	Order	Career Win Shares	Year	Win Shares
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1990	31
Parker, Wes	2nd	146	1970	29
Garvey, Steve	3rd	223	1974	27
Garvey, Steve	4th	223	1976	26
Karros, Eric	T-5th	175	1995	25
Garvey, Steve	T-5th	223	1978	25
Garvey, Steve	T-5th	223	1975	25
Karros, Eric	T-8th	175	1998	22
Garvey, Steve	T-8th	223	1980	22
Garvey, Steve	T-8th	223	1979	22

For the career totals and complete seasonal leaders for 1st baseman click on read more.

Many Dodgers played 1st and the outfield. Ron Fairly was the 1st baseman for the early part of the 60's before Wes Parker took over. Mike Marshall played many games at 1st and in the outfield. Same with Franklin Stubbs. Someday I may break out the career numbers but for now I'm lumping them into the 1st/OF category.

Career Win Shares for LA Dodger 1st Baseman

Player	TWS	Pos
Garvey, Steve	223	1st
Karros, Eric	175	1st
Parker, Wes	146	1st
Murray, Eddie	68	1st
Loney, James	51	1st
Brock, Greg	47	1st
Hodges, Gil	37	1st
Garciaparra, Nomar	29	1st
Farily, Ron	142	1st/OF
Mike, Marshall	108	1st/OF
Buckner, Billy	80	1st/OF
Larker, Norm	35	1st/OF
Stubbs, Franklin	34	1st/OF

Los Angeles Dodgers Seasonal Win Share Leaders for 1st Baseman

Player	Pos	Career Win Shares	Year	Win Share Per Season
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1990	31
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1970	29
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1974	27
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1976	26
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1995	25
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1978	25
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1975	25
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1998	22
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1980	22
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1979	22
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1989	21
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1977	21
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1963	21
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1962	21
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1999	20
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1996	20
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1965	20
Garciaparra, Nomar	1st	29	2006	18
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2002	18
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1997	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1971	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1969	18
Loney, James	1st	51	2009	18
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1966	17
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1964	17
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1959	17
Loney, James	1st	51	2007	16
Murray, Eddie	1st	68	1991	16
Loney, James	1st	51	2008	15
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1985	15
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1983	15
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1982	15
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1967	15
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1961	15
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2000	14
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1972	14
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1960	14
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1992	13
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1981	13
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1968	12
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1958	12
Garvey, Steve	1st	223	1973	11
Buckner, Billy	1st	80	1973	11
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1993	10
Stubbs, Franklin	1st	34	1987	9
Brock, Gregg	1st	47	1986	9
Karros, Eric	1st	175	2001	8
Brock, Greg	1st	47	1984	8
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1959	8
Karros, Eric	1st	175	1994	7
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1958	7
Stubbs, Franklin	1st	34	1988	6
Larker, Norm	1st	35	1961	6
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1961	5
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1959	5
Loney, James	1st	51	2006	3
Parker, Wes	1st	146	1964	3
Hodges, Gil	1st	37	1960	3
Farily, Ron	1st	142	1958	2

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Blake and DeWitt are two of seven players currently on the 40-man roster who have links to Dodgers past.

Browse more photos »

Major league 40-man rosters were set last Friday in preparation for the upcoming Rule 5 draft in two weeks. With the free agency period just starting, there are many open spots on rosters throughout baseball. The Dodgers, for instance, have 33 players on their 40-man roster. Over the next few weeks, free agents will be signed and some players will be non-tendered, so rosters will change, but for now let's look at the 33 Dodgers and how they became Dodgers.

Almost half of the Dodgers currently on the 40-man roster -- 16 of 33 -- were drafted by the team with their own draft pick:

Draft(ed) Dodgers
Player	Year	Round	Pick

James Loney	2002	1	19
Jonathan Broxton	2002	2	60
James McDonald	2002	11	331
Eric Stults	2002	15	451
Russell Martin	2002	17	511

Chad Billingsley	2003	1	24
Xavier Paul	2003	4	121
Matt Kemp	2003	6	181
Lucas May	2003	8	241
A.J. Ellis	2003	18	541

Scott Elbert	2004	1	17
Javy Guerra	2004	4	118
Cory Wade	2004	10	298

Brent Leach	2005	6	196
Trayvon Robinson	2005	10	316

Clayton Kershaw	2006	1	7

These are pretty straight forward original transactions, as are these other four amateur free agents:

Amateur Free Agents
Player	Date	Origin
Hong-Chih Kuo	6/19/99	Taiwan
Ramon Troncoso	6/20/02	Dominican Republic
Chin-Lung Hu	1/31/03	Taiwan
Kenley Jansen	11/17/04	Curacao

That makes 20 of 33 Dodgers who are with are with their original club. In addition to them, there are six more Dodgers that joined the club independent of other players. That is, their acquisitions aren't linked to anyone else:

Free Agents
Player	Date
Rafael Furcal	12/19/05
Juan Pierre	11/22/06
Travis Schlichting*	10/7/07
Hiroki Kuroda	12/16/07
Ronald Belisario*	1/13/09
Charlie Haeger*	1/17/09
*minor league free agents

This is where we get to the fun part of this exercise, as reminded by Rocknjosie in her excellent Fan Post last month. There are seven Dodgers left that were acquired as the result, directly or indirectly, of previous transactions. These are listed in chronological order based on the earliest transaction.

Andre Ethier
Date	Transaction
6/1/88	drafted Mike Piazza in the 62nd round (#1390 overall)
8/4/96	signed Luke Allen as an undrafted free agent
12/8/96	signed Todd Zeile as a free agent
5/14/98	traded Piazza and Zeile to Marlins for Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles Johnson, and Manuel Barrios
11/18/00	signed Franklin Gutierrez as an amateur free agent
1/15/02	traded Sheffield to Braves for Odalis Perez, Brian Jordan, and Andrew Brown
1/17/03	traded Allen to Colorado for Jason Romano
4/3/04	traded Romano to Tampa Bay for Antonio Perez
4/3/04	traded Gutierrez and Brown to Cleveland for Milton Bradley
12/13/05	traded Bradley and Perez to Oakland for Ethier
Total Related Players: 9

Blake DeWitt
Date	Transaction
11/21/87	signed Pedro Astacio as an amateur free agent
6/14/91	signed Ismael Valdez as an amateur free agent
8/28/94	signed Luke Prokopec as an amateur free agent
8/19/97	traded Astacio to Rockies for Eric Young
12/12/99	traded Young and Valdez to Cubs for Terry Adams, Brian Stephenson, and Chad Ricketts
12/31/01	traded Prokopec and Ricketts to Toronto for Cesar Izturis and Paul Quantrill
12/17/03	Quantrill signed as a free agent with the Yankees
6/7/04	drafted DeWitt with a compensation first round pick (#28 overall)
Total Related Players: 6

Ivan DeJesus
Date	Transaction
7/7/94	signed Adrian Beltre as an amateur free agent
12/17/04	Beltre signed as a free agent with Seattle
6/7/05	drafted DeJesus with a compensation second round pick (#51 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Jason Repko
Date	Transaction
1/16/96	signed Scott Radinsky as a free agent
11/23/98	Radinsky signed as a free agent with St. Louis
6/2/99	drafted Repko with a compensation supplemental pick (#37 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Manny Ramirez
Date	Transaction
12/12/98	signed Kevin Brown as a free agent
6/3/03	drafted Andy LaRoche in the 39th round (#1171 overall)
12/13/03	traded Brown to Yankees for Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, Brandon Weeden, and cash
2/23/06	Weaver signed as a free agent with the Angels
6/6/06	drafted Bryan Morris with a compensation first round pick (#26 overall)
7/31/08	traded LaRoche and Morris to Pittsburgh in a 3-team trade; received Manny and cash from Boston
Total Related Players: 4

Casey Blake
Date	Transaction
8/13/04	signed Carlos Santana as an amateur free agent
6/7/05	drafted Jon Meloan in fifth round (#166 overall)
7/26/08	traded Santana and Meloan to Cleveland for Blake, and cash
Total Related Players: 2

George Sherrill
Date	Transaction
6/7/05	drafted Josh Bell in the second round (#74 overall)
6/7/05	drafted Steven Johnson in the 13th round (#406 overall)
7/30/09	traded Bell and Johnson to Baltimore for Sherrill
Total Related Players: 2

The 2009 'Pitties: Game of the Year

Jim McLennan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:00:35 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Gerardo Parra tried to dodge a pounding after a walk-off hit in the 10th inning against the Dodgers on August 15th.

View full size photo »

Not quite as close a poll for the second of the 2009 'Pitties. The B-bullpen of Jon Rauch, Esmerling Vasquez, Clay Zavada and Leo Rosales swept majestically to a collective victory, for their nine innings of no-hit ball in the marathon against the Padres. The same game is also nominated in this week's category.

One of the good things about baseball having a 162-game schedule is that, even in a disappointing year like the Diamondbacks experienced in 2009, there will still be contests which we remember with great fondness [contrast any 'Game of the Year' poll for the Detroit Lions last season, which I imagine made kinda wretched reading...] Arizona still won 70 games, and included among them were blowouts, squeakers, comebacks, slugfests, pitching duels and marathons.

After the jump, you'll find our selection of the five best games of the 2009 season described in detail - the link goes to the recap of the contest in question.

May 16th: Max finally tastes victory, vs. ATL

Only twice since 2002 has the team scored a dozen or more and shutout the opposition - oddly, both times were against the Braves. Here, a 12-0 victory was important, not just for the offensive outburst, but because it gave Max Scherzer his first career win, in his fourteenth start. However, it was only late on that it became a sure thing: when he was lifted for a PH in the seventh, after six innings of four-hit ball, it was only 3-0 to Arizona. However, the offense then piled onto the Atlanta bullpen, tagging them fror nine earned runs over the final seven outs, capped by Chris Snyder's grand-slam in the ninth. This was the largest winning margin for the Diamondbacks since 2006.
May 23rd: biggest comeback of the year, vs. OAK

Arizona had more than their fair share of opposition recoveries inflicted on them in 2009 (44 blown leads in all, ahead only of Washington in the NL), but this was our biggest comeback of the year. We trailed the A's 5-1 going into the eighth, having been stifled by, of all people, former D-back Edgar Gonzalez. However, another ex-Arizonan, veteran Russ Springer, was tagged for three runs without retiring a batter, and we tied things up on a two-run Chad Tracy double. We scored three times in the 11th, but Chad Qualls made it interesting, allowing two runs to score and putting the tying run on third with one out. A ground-ball double-play allowed him and Arizona to escape, 8-7.
June 7th: the game without end, vs SDP

I think the fangraph is all we need here, as we blew a 6-0 lead, allowing five runs in the ninth, then traded zeroes with San Diego until the 18th, where Mark Reynolds' three-run shot off a utility infielder won it for the Diamondbacks, five hours and 45 minutes after the first pitch. Madness? This is Petco!
August 15th: the late, late show, vs. LAD

Jonathan Broxton came into the ninth with 25 saves in 29 opportunities, and having allowed just two home runs in his previous 97 innings, going all the way back to June 2008. With a 3-1 lead - Hiroki Kuroda having out-duelled Doug Davis - things looked bleak for the home outfit, especially after Gerardo Parra's K reduced our WP to 5%. However, Mark Reynolds then deposited the first delivery he saw into the bleachers, and three pitches later, Miguel Montero followed suit, tying the game up. Parra then redeemed himself, driving in the winning run with one down in the bottom of the tenth, sealing the Diamondbacks' first series victory over the Dodgers for more than a year.
August 29th: Garland and Upton and Reynolds, oh my! vs. HOU

Seven shutout innings from Jon Garland - not just his best start in a Diamondbacks' jersey, but also his last before getting traded to LA. Mark Reynolds became the first Arizona batter since 2001 to hit forty home-runs in a season. And Justin Upton hit his 21st blast, four days after no longer being 21 himself. On Luis Gonzalez Appreciation Day and in front of the fourth-biggest home crowd of the year to that point, the D-backs rolled to a 9-0 win over the Astros. This was SnakePitFest 2: Clay Zavada pitched a scoreless eighth in front of the mustached ranks of the Zavada Brigade and team president Derrick Hall stopped by to say hello. Yeah, not too bad a day, all told...

Poll

What was the Game of the Year for the Diamondbacks in 2009?

May 16th: Max finally tastes victory, vs. ATL

5 votes

May 23rd: biggest comeback of the year, vs. OAK

13 votes

June 7th: the game without end, vs SDP

25 votes

August 15th: the late, late show, vs. LAD

14 votes

August 29th: Garland and Upton and Reynolds, oh my! vs. HOU

10 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

A Look Toward 2010: The Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Clayton Kershaw's left arm personifies the Dodgers' immediate future

Browse more photos »

Yesterday we took a look at the offensive projections for the 2010 Dodgers, thanks to the Bill James Handbook (available November 1). Today we look at the pitching staff.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 projected	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 projected	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 projected	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 status	Type A free agent

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 projected	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 status	under contract

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 projected	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 status	Type B free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 projected	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 status	mutual contract option
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 projected	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 projected	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 projected	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 projected	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 projected	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 projected	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 status	under club control

Guillermo Mota
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	56	3.86	4.26	3.38	7.55
2009 actual	65.1	3.44	4.11	3.31	5.37
2010 projected	55	3.60	4.22	3.44	7.20
2010 status	Type B free agent

In addition, there were some 2010 projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	32	5.06	4.62	3.38	7.03	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	77	5.03	4.77	2.57	5.96	free agent
Charlie Haeger	38	4.97	5.26	4.50	6.39	under club control

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Eric Stephen — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:15:09 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

One Type B free agent greets a Type A free agent on the mound

View full size photo »

There will be plenty of time this offseason for moves, but here's an overview of the current Dodger 40-man roster. There are 43 players currently on the 40-man roster, including four on the 60-day disabled list. That will change quickly after the World Series as players file for free agency. I have split them into a few groups:

Free Agents (13+1)

Type A*: Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf

Type B*: Ronnie Belliard, Guillermo Mota, Vicente Padilla, Will Ohman**

Others: Jim Thome, Brad Ausmus, Jason Schmidt, Mark Loretta, Juan Castro, Eric Milton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jeff Weaver

*Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts has done a great job of figuring out the Elias Rankings, and has posted them at MLB Trade Rumors. In order to receive compensation for Type A or Type B free agents, the club must offer them arbitration. Type A free agents net a first round pick from the team that signs them, provided the pick isn't in the top 15, in addition to a supplemental pick in between the first and second rounds.

If a team signs more than one Type A free agent, the players are ranked by their Elias ranking, they give up picks in the lower rounds as well. For instance, the Yankees last year gave up their first three picks for signing C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett, all Type A free agents. Type B free agents net only a supplemental pick.

There is always the risk that a player will accept arbitration (like Darren Oliver did with the Angels last season). If he does, the maximum salary cut a player can take is 20%, so for Guillermo Mota, for instance, the least he would make in arbitration in 2010 would be $1.88 million (80% of his $2.35 million 2009 salary). In the case of Hudson and Wolf, they had low base salaries so this isn't an issue, but there is still quite a risk because they are still likely to command a high salary in arbitration.

**I'm counting Will Ohman in this exercise, even though he is no longer on the 40-man since his option was bought out last week, but the Dodgers, however unlikely, can still offer Ohman arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Offer arbitration to Hudson, Wolf, and Belliard only

Options (2)

Manny Ramirez has a $20 million player option for 2010. He has until November 10 to accept or decline this option.
Jon Garland has a $10 million mutual option for 2010. If the Dodgers decline, his buyout is $2.5 million; if Garland declines, his buyout is $1 million. As a condition of Garland's acquisition, the Diamondbacks will pay either buyout if the option is not exercised. Even if either side opts out, Garland is a Type B free agent, and the Dodgers could offer him arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Manny comes back, Dodgers let Arizona pay Garland $2.5m to walk away, don't offer Garland arbitration

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
George Sherrill	4.147	$2,750,000
Jonathan Broxton	4.020	$1,825,000
Andre Ethier	3.153	$3,100,000
Russell Martin	3.150	$3,900,000
Hong-Chih Kuo	3.114	$437,000
Chad Billingsley	3.110	$475,000
Matt Kemp	3.049	$467,000
James Loney	3.012	$465,000
Jason Repko	3.067	$500,000

Look for: Repko to get non-tendered

Under Contract (4)

Player	2009 Salary	2010 Salary
Rafael Furcal	$10,500,000	$8,500,000
Juan Pierre	$10,000,000	$10,000,000
Casey Blake	$5,250,000	$6,000,000
Hiroki Kuroda	$10,000,000	$13,000,000

Under Team Control (15)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
Ramon Troncoso	1.119	$401,000
Clayton Kershaw	1.105	$404,000
Cory Wade	1.096	$402,500
Eric Stults	1.072	$402,000
Blake DeWitt	1.048	$405,000
James McDonald	1.004	$400,750
Ronald Belisario	1.000	$400,000
Chin-Lung Hu	0.153	$401,000
Xavier Paul	0.151	$400,000
Charlie Haeger	0.125	$400,000
Scott Elbert	0.097	$400,000
Brent Leach	0.090	$400,000
A.J. Ellis	0.081	$400,000
Travis Schlichting	0.055	$400,000
Lucas May	0.000	------

Here are some important dates to remember for the offseason:

Day After World Series Ends: begins 15-day period for eligible players to file for free agency

November 20: Date reserve lists must be set (adding players to 40-man roster for purposes of Rule 5 draft)

December 1: Last date to offer arbitration to free agents to receive compensation

December 10: Rule 5 draft

December 12: Deadline to tender contracts to players under team control or pre-free agency arbitration-eligible players

It will be a long offseason, but the hot stove is always interesting.

Dodgers Look To Padilla To Extend Season

Eric Stephen — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:23:55 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

about 1 month ago: Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Vicente Padilla throws in the outfield during practice for the National League Championship baseball series Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009, in Philadelphia. Padilla starts for the Dodgers when they face the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 5 Wednesday, trailing in the series 3-1. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Browse more photos »

Randy Wolf. Clayton Kershaw. Chad Billingsley. Hiroki Kuroda. Jon Garland.

None of these starting pitchers will be making their third start this postseason today. That honor falls to Vicente Padilla, who has pitched like an ace so far this October.

Padilla sure picked a great time to have his best two starts as a Dodger. Padilla has allowed one run in 14.1 innings over his two playoff starts so far, and the Dodgers are hoping he can give them yet another strong start. Burt Hooton is the only Dodger ever with three straight postseason starts allowing one run or fewer in seven or more innings, turning the trick in 1981.

Cole Hamels started last year's Game 5, allowing just one run over seven innings as the Phillies won their pennant at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers of course can't return the favor tonight, but the very least they can do is to assure that the 2009 NL pennant will be won at Dodger Stadium too.

Andre Ethier is the only Dodger starter with an OPS above .783 this postseason:

Player	XBH	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS
Ethier	6	.333/.419/.741	1.160
Manny	4	.276/.300/.483	.783
Loney	1	.308/.357/.423	.780
Martin	1	.238/.407/.286	.693
Belliard	0	.308/.379/.308	.687
Furcal	1	.286/.313/.357	.670
Kemp	2	.200/.226/.400	.626
Blake	0	.192/.250/.192	.442
Starters	15	.268/.331/.404	.734

The Dodgers need production from the offense if they want to play at home on Friday and/or Saturday.

Here's a brief look at the Dodgers' history when down 3-1 in the postseason:

1916: Ernie Shore of the Red Sox threw a 3-hit CG to win 4-1, giving Boston it's fourth championship
1941: One game after being stunned in the 9th inning (sound familiar?) by a strike 3 passed ball by Mickey Owen, leading to a four-run rally, the Dodgers fell to the Yankees 3-1 behind a CG by Tiny Bonham and a HR by Tommy Henrich
1949: The Dodgers fell 10-6 to the Yankees to lose their third series to the Yankees in nine years.
1974: After three straight 3-2 games, the Dodgers must have been confused by the 5-2 defeat to the A's in Game 4, as they fell in Game 5 by yet another 3-2 score
1977: Trailing the Yankees 3-1, the Dodgers finally pulled one out, scoring a 10-4 win at Dodger Stadium by limiting Reggie Jackson to just one home run. Jackson, however, had the last laugh, hitting three bombs in Game 6, cementing his status as Mr. October and denying the Dodgers a championship.
2008: Last season's NLCS Game 5 was dominated by Cole Hamels, who allowed just one run over seven innings. The Phillies managed a few early runs, knocking out Chad Billingsley early, and the Phillies won their first pennant in 25 15 years.

So that's six times the Dodgers were down 3-1, and they forced a Game 6 just once. However, the Dodgers did win three straight in the 1981 NLDS after falling behind 0-2 in the best-of-five series.

There is only one option tonight. Win.

**********

The Sons of Steve Garvey have an exclusive interview with the Don't Stop Believin' Guy. Good job, Delino!

**********

Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Game Time: 5:07pm

TV: TBS (Chip Caray, Ron Darling, Buck Martinez)

Baseball Reference Game Five Preview

Looking Back On A Blowout

Eric Stephen — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 15:24:51 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Whatever "it" is, Hiroki Kuroda just didn't have it last night

Browse more photos »

"Boy, that escalated quickly... I mean, that really got out of hand fast."

-Ron Burgundy, Anchorman

Here are a few notes about last night's game:

Hiroki Kuroda's outing of only an inning and a third was the shortest start by a Dodger in the playoffs since John Tudor walked off the mound with an injury after getting four outs in Game 3 of the 1988 World Series, which was also played on October 18
Kuroda's game score of 19 was the fifth worst in Dodger playoff history
The Dodgers allowed a major league low 11 three-run home runs in the regular season, but have allowed three in three games to the Phillies in the NLCS
Carlos Ruiz is hitting .591/.719/1.045 against the Dodgers this season, including the playoffs, in 33 plate appearances, including 10 walks and just one strikeout. Ruiz in 2009 has hit .233/.324/.377 against everyone else
The 11-0 loss matched the worst playoff loss in club history. The Dodgers also lost Game 1 of the 1959 World Series by the same score, but went on to win the series 4-2.
Last night was the fifth time in their postseason history that the Dodgers have given up 11 or more runs.
Before last night, there were 20 wins by 11 runs or more in MLB playoff history that didn't end a series. The winning team won the next game of the series 13 of 20 times. Of all the teams that have won a playoff game by 11 or more runs, they have won that series 13 of 22 times.
The Dodgers have not scored a run off a Phillies' starting pitcher for the last 15.1 innings, not since the fifth inning of Game 1
Last night's game only counted as one win for the Phillies. Nothing more. In 1960 the Yankees outscored the Pirates 55 to 27 in the World Series, yet lost four games to three.

Game 3 was certainly awful for the Dodgers, but they have an immediate chance to erase that memory tonight.

NLCS Question: What Was Joe Torre Thinking?

raygu — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:00:40 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

about 1 month ago: Los Angeles Dodgers manager Joe Torre, right, removes starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda (18) in the second inning of Game 3 of the National League Championship baseball series against the Philadelphia Phillies Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Browse more photos »

The only reason why I am writing this article is because of a decision Joe Torre made to start Hiroki Kuroda in game 3 of the NLCS in Philadelphia. Otherwise, I would be watching the rest of the Phillies-Dodgers game. I questioned alot of Torre's decisions in 2008, but not so much in 2009. But his decision to start Kuroda after not pitching for a month has me scratching my head.

Torre will certainly be grilled by the LA media after Kuroda lasted 1 1/3 innings last night in Philadelphia after giving up 6 runs on 6 hits. I think Chad Billingsley could have pitched better than that, but he is in Torre's doghouse, and no one knows how that will affect him in 2010.

Should Torre have started Hiroki Kuroda in game 3 of the NLCS last night?

Poll

Do you think Torre was crazy for starting Hiroki Kuroda last night?

yes

48 votes

no

38 votes

86 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Hiroki Kuroda

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Starters

Bullpen

Updated Dodger 1st Baseman Win Shares

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

The 2009 'Pitties: Game of the Year

What was the Game of the Year for the Diamondbacks in 2009?

May 16th: Max finally tastes victory, vs. ATL

May 23rd: biggest comeback of the year, vs. OAK

June 7th: the game without end, vs SDP

August 15th: the late, late show, vs. LAD

August 29th: Garland and Upton and Reynolds, oh my! vs. HOU

A Look Toward 2010: The Pitching

Starters

Bullpen

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Free Agents (13+1)

Options (2)

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Under Contract (4)

Under Team Control (15)

Dodgers Look To Padilla To Extend Season

Looking Back On A Blowout

NLCS Question: What Was Joe Torre Thinking?

Do you think Torre was crazy for starting Hiroki Kuroda last night?

yes

no