SB Nation - Roger Bernadina

Washington Nationals' GM Mike Rizzo Chats With The Faithful.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 20:34:28 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

DC GM Mike Rizzo took some time off this afternoon to talk to the DC Faithful about how the winter is progressing for the nation's capital's favorite major league team. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)

Browse more photos »

Before the 2009 season had ended, the Washington Nationals had already identified the areas that they needed to improve this winter with veteran starting pitching, backend bullpen help and a legit (defensive-minded) middle infielder at the top of their list. This afternoon in a Chat with fans at the Nationals' Official site, DC GM Mike Rizzo once again reiterated that the team's offseason plans haven't changed:

"Even with the addition of a quality back of the bullpen arm like Brian Bruney and a veteran catcher like Ivan Rodriguez, I still feel it is important to address the starting pitching, bullpen arms and middle infield defense."

The two questions I submitted weren't answered directly, but the topics they dealt with were addressed. The first concerned a couple on-the-cusp "prospects", Justin Maxwell and Roger Bernadina, and the role the two 26-year-old outfielders would play on the 2010 Nationals' roster. Bernadina, who suffered a fractured right ankle in April of '09, has, according to Mr. Rizzo, "...been cleared to participate fully in all baseball activity. He started participating again as far back as the instructional league in October." Mr. Rizzo makes no predicition as to what Bernadina might contribute this season, nor does he say whether or not Maxwell is ready for a bigger role with the team, but his comments on Maxwell mirror what fans consistently hear from the DC Front Office about the 6'5'', 225lb, '05 4th Round pick:

"We believe that Justin has grown as a player both on and off the field and fully anticipate him competing for playing time with the other talented outfielders we have. His makeup and positive attitude have been contagious in our clubhouse setting."

The second question I submitted dealt with the DC GM's presence at the recent bullpen session thrown by Cuban-born left-handed free agent Aroldis Chapman. I wondered why Mr. Rizzo was the only out-of-town GM to attend the exhibition, and what he thought of the 22-year-old fastballer, but the question that the moderators took dealt solely with Mr. Rizzo's impressions of the pitcher:

"Aroldis is an extremely talented, athletic left-handed pitcher with a ceiling as high as any current amateur pitcher in the world. He has great arm strength and velocity on his fastball and is just in his infancy as a frontline Major League prospect."

The rest of the quick chat can be summed up pretty easily...The Nationals are watching Bryce Harper along with the rest of the baseball world. Stephen Strasburg is recovering nicely from the knee injury he suffered in the AFL. The Nationals will be inviting far fewer players to Spring Training this year than they have in the past and Shairon Martis will be one of many starters competing for a spot in the Nationals' twenty-ten rotation...The Nationals are still looking for a middle infielder....uh...that's about it...What? Did you expect the DC GM to announce a major signing or trade?

The Bill James Handbook 2010 - Projections For The Washington Nationals' 2010 OF.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 05:44:41 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

4 months ago: Washington Nationals outfielders Willie Harris, left, Nyjer Morgan, center, and Elijah Dukes (34) celebrate after getting the final out of the Nationals' 5-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates in a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Aug. 2, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Browse more photos »

Once again, the folks at Acta Sports, publishers of The Bill James Handbook 2010, have given the SB Nation writers who are interested access to the "Hitter Projections" from the soon-to-be published (on Nov. 1, 2009) 2010 edition of Mr. James' Handbook, which is referred to in a testimonial quote by ESPN.com's Peter Gammons on the Acta Sports site as, "The prize of our winter hibernation." For anyone who doesn't know, Bill James is described on his wikipedia page as:

"...a baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics. His approach, which he termed sabermetrics in reference to the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), scientifically analyzes and studies baseball, often through the use of statistical data..."

Mr. James' bio on the Acta Sports page simply adds that Mr. James:

"...has been writing about baseball and compiling reference books about baseball since 1975. He is currently the Senior Baseball Operations Advisor for the Boston Red Sox."

After the jump, we'll look at the '09 Projections, '09 Stats and 2010 Projections for the Washington Nationals' outfielders...Josh Willingham in left, Nyjer Morgan in center...and...Elijah Dukes in right? Are there any other real options for the Nationals in 2010? See what the three are projected to do next season AFTER THE JUMP...

(cont.)...

The Bill James Handbook 2010 Hitter Projections For The Washington Nationals' OF...

LF Josh Willingham:

*Josh Willingham*	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	138	507	137	31	23	82	.270	.371	.479
'09 Stats	133	427	111	29	24	61	.260	.367	.496
2010 Projections	140	500	130	32	25	78	.260	.363	.482

Nyjer Morgan - CF:

*Nyjer Morgan*	G	AB	H	2B	*SB/SB%*	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	71	240	70	11	26/0.76	16	.292	.339	.367
'09 Stats	120	469	144	15	42/0.71	39	.307	.369	.388
2010 Projections	153	599	181	23	52/0.70	44	.302	.356	.376

Elijah Dukes - RF:

*Elijah Dukes*	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	81	284	72	14	13	44	.254	.363	.461
'09 Stats	107	364	91	20	8	58	.250	.337	.393
2010 Projections	107	346	91	19	12	55	.263	.359	.439

BENCH:

• Willie Harris:

- 2009 Stats - 137 G, 323 AB's, 76 H, 6 2B, 7 HR's, 27 RBI's, .235 AVG, .364 OBP, .393 SLG.

- 2010 Projections - 110 G, 264 AB's, 65 H, 13 2B, 5 HR's, 22 RBI's, .248 AVG, .348 OBP, .367 SLG.

• Justin Maxwell:

- 2009 Stats - 40 G, 89 AB's, 22 H, 4 2B, 4 HR's, 9 RBI's, .247 AVG, .343 OBP, .449 SLG.

- 2010 Projections - 69 G, 203 AB's, 47 H, 6 2B, 7 HR's, 23 RBI's, .232 AVG, .328 OBP, .384 SLG.

• Notes on the #'s, ?'s Raised:

-- Is anyone predicting a different starting OF? Can Roger Bernadina, whose stats were not projected, stay healthy? I can't think of any outfielders in the Nationals' system who are going to make the jump next year? Austin Kearns is almost certainly gone. Can the Nationals compete in the National League with Hammer, Nyjer Morgan and Dukes left to right, or should DC add an OF to the winter shopping list?

-- A .302 hitting, 52 SB, .352 OBP leadoff hitter? Is Nyjer Morgan the man in CF in DC in 20-10? It seemed for a while last season that the Nationals' center field situation was finally solved, but for a player who's never played more than the 120 games he played in 2008, is a 153 game played projection a reasonable expectation? Or a bit generous? If he lives up those #'s, DC's top-o'-the-order-troubles might finally be over...just get that OBP up a bit Morgan? And remember, you don't have to steal every ti---ah, forget it, Run Morgan Run!!!

-- When pre-Trade Deadline talk kept bringing up Josh Willingham's name last July, DC GM Mike Rizzo told Washington Post writer Chico Harlan, as quoted in an article entitled, "Rizzo Has No Plans For A July Firesale", that trading Willingham was not in the team's plans:

"'Why would you want to dump Willingham? We control him for two years, he's [30] years old, and he's a good hitter,' Rizzo said. 'I still think it's a young team. Willingham and Zim, those are guys in their primes or entering their primes. Including Dunn.'"

Are you confident that Willingham, who has a history of back issues, will make it through two more seasons? I've only heard positives about Willingham out of Mike Rizzo, are you assuming he's penciled in in left on Opening Day 2010?

-- Is there any chance of Elijah Dukes getting a full season in right field? He played a combined 129 between the Minors and DC last season, and his combined #'s, .254 AVG, 28 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR's, 68 RBI's, are maybe less than you'd like in terms of power, but far better than I see any other outfielder in the Nationals' system producing in 2010...Any doubt in your mind that Dukes will start the season in right?

-- Maxwell, Harris and Bernadina off the bench? Are Maxwell and Bernadina wasted as part-time players? Do either of them have any trade value? It would seem to me they're probably considered a bit more valuable/impressive by DC fans who've seen their best stretches, as opposed to other teams, who look at their total production?

Washington Nationals' Possible Candidates for September Roster Expansion

Dave at Nats News Network — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:54:55 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Collin Balester could rejoin the team as early as Sept. 1 when the major league rosters expand. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Browse more photos »

With September 1 literally just hours away, major league teams can expand their active roster to include anyone occupying a spot on their 40-man roster. Traditionally, teams have utilized the "September call-up" in one of several ways:

1) For contenders, it's a chance to give their regulars a night off here and there in preparation for the gruel of the playoffs

2) For middle of the pack teams, it's often a reward to long-time minor leaguers or AAAA-types toiling in obsurity

3) For bottomfeeders, it's an opportunity for a chance to see that prospect that everyone is excited about, even for just a quick appearance

The Nats seem to fall into all three categories this year.

The Nats have already indicated that they will wait until Syracuse's season is over before calling anyone up, though. So any help will still be at least a week away from arriving in D.C.

Because of the rash of injuries, trades and bullpen struggles, general manager Mike Rizzo has already made the bulk of his September call-ups before the roster expansion happened. Jorge Padilla, Pete Orr, Justin Maxwell, Mike Morse...even pitchers like J.D. Martin, Tyler Clippard and Jorge Sosa would have been prime candidates, were it not for the need earlier in the season.

So who is left? Let's take a look!

ON THE 40-MAN ROSTER

By my count, with Justin Maxwell's impending promotion there are currently 14 players on the 40-man roster NOT on the active 25-man roster:

C: Jesus Flores (15-day DL), Luke Montz (AA-Harrisburg)

SS: Ian Desmond (AAA-Syracuse)

OF Austin Kearns (15-day DL), Nyjer Morgan (15-day DL)

LHP: Scott Olsen (15-day DL), Ross Detwiler (AAA-Syracuse), Matt Chico (AA-Harrisburg)

RHP: Collin Balester (AAA-Syracuse), Shairon Martis (AAA-Syracuse), Marco Estrada (AAA-Syracuse), Luis Atilano (AAA-Syracuse), Ryan Mattheus (minor league DL), Stephen Strasburg

60-day DL: OF Roger Bernadina, RHP Terrell Young, 1B Dmitri Young, RHP Jordan Zimmermann

Players on the 60-day DL do not count toward the 40-man roster, so there may still be some wiggle room to place a player or two on the 60-day to open 40-man space.

Of the 14 players on the 40-man, Flores, Morgan, Olsen and Mattheus are out for the season with injury. And from the sounds of this, Kearns is probably joining them. So we can rule all of those players out.

Rizzo has already been on record that Chico is not likely a candidate, and Strasburg's plans have been laid out in excrutiating detail. Additionally, Rizzo has all but ruled out a cameo for Drew Storen, blazing his way up the minor league chain after being selected No. 10 overall in this year's amateur draft.

That leaves Desmond, Detwiler, Balester, Martis, Estrada and Atilano off the 40-man roster eligible. It's been assumed that the Nats will recall a couple starters to relieve some of the burden from young arms accumulation of innings. But with the signing of Livan Hernandez, who eats innings as well as any pitcher in the majors, maybe that goal has already been achieved.

Still, I can envision seeing Balester, Detwiler, Martis and Estrada all being recalled and utilized as starters or swing-men in September.

And I'll also pencil in Desmond. He's had a terrific season, and the Nats have to be wondering if the best arm and range in their minor league system can handle the bat enough at the big league level to replace the very quickly aging Cristian Guzman and his bunions.

Atilano is 2-0, 2.45 in two starts since his promotion to Syracuse, and the one-time first round draft pick of the Altanta Braves has enjoyed a fine season overall, but the Nats are probably happy to let him finish the season and head into spring training.

As for players currently not on the 40-man roster? There are certainly some candidates, and most of them are bullpen guys that could again help manage the workload of some of the young starters.

OTHER PITCHERS

There are six relievers in Syracuse that could certainly get "The Call" : RHPs Zech Zinicola, Zack Segovia, Josh Wilkie, Clint Everts and LHPs Jack Spradlin and Yunior Novoa.

Segovia has some major league experince, a 2.70 ERA and five saves for Syracuse. Everts was the Expos 2002 first round pick. In 2009, in over 57.1 IP at three levels (Potomac, Harrisburg & Syracuse), Everts has been outstanding (8-1, 1.41 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 10.4 K/9). Spradlin is 4-3 with four saves and has a 3.19 ERA and 1.212 WHIP across AAA-AA in 44 games. He has struck out an even 7.0 per nine.

Wilkie was an unheralded pitcher from George Washington University (sound familiar?) and has been promoted twice this season. Novoa has a great change but has only been "just decent" this season, despite being promoted three times this season. Zinicola (6.04 ERA) has struggled this year.

OTHER HITTERS

Most of them are already with the big club. Rizzo said the other day he doesn't envision calling up a third catcher just for the heck of it. Montz is the only other catcher on the 40-man, and he's really regressed this season (.184/.295/.314 in 347 plate appearances) after hitting 16 homers last season.

Could Seth Bynum (.263/.306./453, 18 HR, 62 RBI in 433 ABs), Kory Casto (.268/.332/.373, 7-55), Norris Hopper (.291/.342/.344, 23 SBs), Brad Eldred (.267/.338/.478, 16-56) or Daryle Ward (.235/.320/.389, 12-45) get promoted? Possible, but not likely. The only compelling possibility is Hopper, who is a plus defender in center. But you have to figure whatever at bats Wee Willie Harris doesn't get are going to go to Justin Maxwell, in what could make or break his tenure in the organization.

SURE TO BE INCORRECT PREDICTIONS

The Nats add a bunch of arms, but just one more hitter, injury notwithstanding.

From the 40-man: RHPs Balester, Detwiler, Martis, Estrada and SS Desmond

Need to be added to 40-man: RHP Everts and Segovia and LHP Spradlin

Your guess is as good as mine, though. Let's hear 'em in the comments.

Phillies vs. Nationals: April 27-29

Matt Swartz — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 01:33:58 -0000

More photos » by Jeffrey Boan - AP

Grand slamming Shane Victorino and the Phightin' Phils head home to face the Nats this week. (AP Photo/Jeffrey M. Boan)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (9-8) head back home after sweeping the Marlins to face the Nationals (4-13) who avoided the sweep by beating the Mets on Sunday. The game that everyone has their eyes on is Tuesday night's start by Cole Hamels' start against the Nationals. After a terrible start to begin the year, a good start turned bad to follow it, and a dominating three innings against the Brewers in his third start terminated early after a homerun and a linedrive off the shoulder, Cole will hope the fourth one's a charm. Before that, Blanton will take on the Nats on Monday though. The Phillies will have to face a couple of lefties, including their old nemesis Scott Olsen this week. Here are the matchups:

MONDAY 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Shairon Martis (R)

TUESDAY 7:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. John Lannan (L)

WEDNESDAY 7:05-- Brett Myers (R) vs. Scott Olsen (L)

Here are the players' peripherals and splits

NATIONALS

LINEUP

The Nationals have a decent lineup, but they have not exactly managed their resources perfectly meaning that they have five guys who could legitimately play LF/RF/1B, and two are on the bench. They have two solid lefties with great eyes right in the top of their lineup, and it will be important for the Phillies to get past them. The Nationals do not have much power outside of these guys and Zimmerman though and they don't have very good contact hitters either. Other than Johnson and Dunn in the top of their lineup, the rest of their lineup is actually right-handed or switch-hitters.

(1) 2B Anderson Hernandez (S)

proj: .240/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 7%
ifh: 9%
babip: slightly below average due to weak hits and poor contact, but he's bound to be good on groundballs
s/c/z: average thus far
r/l: probably a little better as rhb against lhp
h/a: not enough info
p/o: so far he seems to be a bit of an opposite field hitter
other: none

(2) 1B Nick Johnson (L)

proj: .270/.410/.470
bb: 17%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: doesn't tend to do well on groundballs in general, but does decently otherwise, about average
s/c/z: does not swing much, but especially good at laying off balls; contact rate about average though
r/l: no major split at all
h/a: no major split at all
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: much better babip with runners on thus far; probably hooks ball in hole a lot

(3) 3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)

proj: .285/.350/.475
bb: 8.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: tends to hit around .315 on BIP since he hits a lot of groundballs in the whole
s/c/z: about average across the board
r/l: .758/.931; 2.6 k/bb vs rhp, 1.2 vs lhp; and slightly more power against lhp too
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

(4) LF Adam Dunn (L)

proj: .245/.380/.490
bb: 17.5%
k: 31%
gb: 34%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: somewhat low, around .290 career, mostly bc of low babip on groundballs due to the shift
s/c/z: good eye, laying off pitches out of the strike zone; poor contact skills but not as bad as you might expect; sees few strikes
r/l: .932/.833; biggest difference is 1.4 k/bb vs rhb and 2.0 k/bb vs lhb
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: definitepull hitter
other: nothing abnormal; power lefties tend to do better with men on, but he hasn't in his career

(5) CF Elijah Dukes (R)

proj: .265/.365/.465
bb: 14%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been low but seems to profile as about average
s/c/z: good eye but poor contact skill
r/l: more power against lhp but not much difference otherwisee
h/a: much better k/bb at home: 1.2 vs 2.0
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(6) RF Austin Kearns (R)

proj: .260/.350/.410
bb: 11%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6.5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye with average contact skill
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhp, 1.1 k/bb vs lhp; only .775/.827 split overall career though
h/a: no major split
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

(7) C Jesus Flores (R)

proj: .245/.305/.410
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 17%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been above average but will probably fall due to high popup rate
s/c/z: hacker but pithchers still challenge him
r/l: 5.1 k/bb vs rhp, 3.5 k/bb vs lhp; .633/.802 ops split but mostly due to very high babip vs lhp that probably won't persist
h/a: struggles more at home so far in career but probably just noise
p/o: very distinct pull hitter; only rarely goes the other way at all
other: far more successful against finesse pitchers thus far with lots of trouble against power pitchers

(8) SS Alberto Gonzalez (R)

proj: .260/.310/.380
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 17%
ifh: 4%
babip: low due to high infield fly rate and low infield hit rate
s/c/z: patient but not especially good discipline; good contact skill though
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: tends to be a pull hitter but not much info
other: none

BENCH

The Nats should have a solid couple of hitters on the bench every day, so they do have some pinch hitting threats.

C Wil Nieves (R)

proj: .245/.290/.325
bb: 5.5%
k: 14%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: lack of power leads to it being below average since its low on flyballs; lack of speed leads to pretty low babip on groundballs too
s/c/z: poor strike zone judgment, but not terrible
r/l: seems typical but not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around evenly
other: none

1B/OF Josh Willingham (R)

proj: .265/.355/.485
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: low swing rate in general, average contact skill
r/l: better k/bb and power numbers vs lhb but reverse babip split masks that
h/a: seemingly better on the road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

2B Ronnie Belliard (R)

proj: .270/.330/.420
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: below average by a little due to lack of power
s/c/z: average across the board
r/l: .727/.828
h/a: .773/.739
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Alex Cintron (S)

proj avg: .270/.310/.380
bb: 5%
k: 14%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: about average overall
s/c/z: free swinger with above average contact and okay eye; thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .694/.757
h/a: .728/.693
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Justin Maxwell (R)

proj avg: .240/.320/.430
bb: 9%
k: 24%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 17% in minors in 2008
ifh: n/a
babip: seems bad, but little info
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: much, much better agianst lhp in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Cristian Guzman (S)

proj: .295/.335/.420
bb: 5%
k: 12%
gb: 55%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: solid ground ball rate puts him around .315-.320
s/c/z: fair strike judgment but plus contact skill
r/l: poorer strike zone judgment as rhb but more power
h/a: .743/.645 career
p/o: more of a pull hitter against rhb, but some pull tendencies against lhb too
other: none

DISABLED LIST: UTL Willie Harris (L)

proj: .255/.345/.390
bb: 10.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 48%
iff: 10%
ifh: 7%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: does not swing much
r/l: better vs rhp, primarily due to k/bb difference (1.5 vs 3.2)
h/a: not much difference
p/o: pull hitter
other:

DISABLED LIST: OF Roger Bernadina (L)

proj: .260/.330/.380
bb: 9%
k: 22%
gb: 67% so far and seems right based on minor league numbers
iff: 8% in minors last year
ifh: seems to be prone to a few but tough to know
babip: speed probably keeps it a bit high but lack of power indicates not that high
s/c/z: so far has had good eye and decent contact
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

The Phillies have to face two lefties this series. None of the starters they have to face are very tough and neither of the lefties are especially tough on lefties. On Wednesday, the Phillies will face their old nemesis, Scott Olsen.

MONDAY STARTER: Shairon Martis (R)

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 60% fb, 20% ch, 10% sl, 9% cb
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Martis vs. Phillies

Howard: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K

Marson: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Rollins: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Utley: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K

Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

TUESDAY STARTER: John Lannan (L)

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 60% fb, 16% sl, 12% cb, 11% ch, 1% ct
r/l: 1.2 k/bb vs rhb, 2.3 vs lhb; .719/.840 ops
h/a: slightly better on road but not much info

Lannan vs. Phillies

Rollins: 5/12, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

Utley: 5/11, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 0 XBH

Victorino: 4/11, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP

Howard: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP

Werth: 3/8, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K

Feliz: 3/6, 1 BB,0 K

Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Scott Olsen (L)

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 63% fb, 20% ch, 17% sl
r/l: 1.6 k/bb vs rhb, 2.8 k/bb vs lhb; .827/.686 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Olsen vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 6/28, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K

Utley: 4/24, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 7 K

Howard: 11/24, 3 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP

Victorino: 2/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Werth: 6/13, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K

Feliz: 4/12, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K

Coste: 2/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K

Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K

Ibanez: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Jordan Zimmerman (L)

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 48% in minors so probably about average in majors perhaps (?)
pitches: ?
r/l: better against righties in minors
h/a: ?

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Daniel Cabrera (R)

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 72% fb, 24% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .681/.827; 1.5 k/bb vs 1.2
h/a: many more hr surrendered at home but slightly better k/bb

BULLPEN

The Nats lack a dominant arm in the bullpen, but their closer is Joel Hanrahan. The rest of the bullpen has practically been replaced since the Phillies' first series against the Nats this year. The only lefty in the pen is the mediocre Mike Hinkley.

CL Joel Hanrahan (R)

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Saul Rivera (R)

proj avg: 3.90 EAR, 3.9 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 45% fb, 34% sl, 19% ct, 2% ch
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: much better at home (2.1 k/bb vs 1.2)

Michael Hinckley (L)

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 67% fb, 33% cb
r/l: major loogy probably, but tough to tell from limited info
h/a: not enough info

Julian Tavarez (R)

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 53% fb, 25% sl, 15% ch, 8% sf
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhb, 1.0 vs lhb; .734/.827 ops
h/a: 1.75 k/bb at home, 1.3 on road

Garrett Mock (R)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 20% cb, 11% ch, 8% sl, 2% ct
r/l: .689/.704
h/a: .730/.643

Jason Bergmann (R)

proj avg: 4.65 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 31%
pitches: 55% fb, 21% cb, 15% sl, 6% ch
r/l: .734/.870
h/a: .764/.840

Kip Wells (R)

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 70% sl, 12% sl, 10% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .755/.807
h/a: .756/.802

DISABLED LIST: Joe Beimel (L)

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 85% fb (sinkers coded as fastballs), 7% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 0.9 vs 2.3 k/bb, platoon splits not even as deep as would be give strength of lhb faced vs rhb
h/a: 1.5 k/bb at home 1.1 k/bb on road, but ops split not different

PHILLIES

LINE UP

The heart of the Phillies lineup leans further to the left than Ralph Nader. The rest of the lineup is pretty well balanced, but with Utley hitting 3rd, Howard hitting 4th, and Ibanez hitting 6th, managers have an advantage to use lefties against the Phillies in key situations. Both of the switch hitters atop the lineup hit lefties a little better than righties, and the bottom of the lineup has two righties. The Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz is on the disabled list now with a strained rib cage, so Chris Coste and Lou Marson have been splitting time with Coste starting more often. Lou Marson is a pretty highly touted catching prospect who had an extraordinary year in AA last year, though has yet to hit for much power. Carlos Ruiz is apparently returning Wednesday, so Marson will be sent down then.

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S)

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S)

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L)

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L)

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R)

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L)

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R)

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Chris Coste (R)

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

BENCH

Like their lineup, the Phillies' bench is much better from the left side. Dobbs and Stairs are two solid lefthanded pinch hitters with power. Stairs is by far more patient and is much more successful against lefties than Dobbs. From the right side, the Phillies have superutility man Eric Bruntlett. Bruntlett struggles mightily against RHP, but actually has very solid numbers against LHP. Bruntlett can be used as a counterswitch when managers bring in lefties to face Dobbs or Stairs. The Phillies other RHB on the bench is Miguel Cairo. He is not a very good hitter, but is flexible and can play many positions.

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R)

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L)

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L)

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R)

proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

C Lou Marson (R)

proj: .270/.345/.400
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 59% in minors in 08
iff: 7% in minors in 08
ifh: ?
babip: very above average in minors, bizarrely high on flyballs and groundballs, and this seems to be without a significant reason
s/c/z: ?
r/l: better k/bb in minors vs rhp but tough to tell
h/a: 0.7 vs 1.5 k/bb; much higher infield fly rate on road (10.6% vs 3.5%)
p/o: ?
other: high walk rate in minors may be at risk in majors if he doesn't develop power

DISABLED LIST: Carlos Ruiz (R)

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

ROTATION

Joe Blanton starts Monday night's game against the Nationals. He is mostly a contact pitcher, but he has struggled this year. Cole Hamels starts Tuesday night's game, after a frustrating start to 2009. He was dominating the Brewers through three innings last Thursday before he gave up a homerun to Braun and was hit by a linedrive and needed to leave the game. He'll look to rebound against the Nationals this Tuesday and put together a solid start. Myers will pitch Wednesday night.

MONDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R)

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Nats:

Dukes: 2/10, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K

Belliard: 3/8,1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

Zimmerman: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 K

Dunn: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K

Flores: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K

Johnson: 4/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

Cintron: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K

Kearns: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

Nieves: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Willingham: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K

Gonzalez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

Hernandez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L)

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Nats:

Zimmerman: 10/37, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 8 K

Kearns: 6/22, 2 2B, 4 BB (1 IBB), 3 K

Belliard: 6/23, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 7 K

Willingham: 3/13, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K

Flores: 1/12, 0 BB, 7 K, 0 XBH

Johnson: 3/11, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K

Dunn: 1/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K

Dukes: 1/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K

Maxwell: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K

Hernandez: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Cintron: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Nieves: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Brett Myers (R)

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs. Nats:

Zimmerman: 11/30, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 SF (1.096 OPS)

Kearns: 7/25, 2 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 HBP, 1 SF

Johnson: 4/21, 3 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 8 K, 1 HBP

Dunn: 3/15, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 5 K

Belliard: 4/18, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP

Willingham: 5/13, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP

Flores: 2/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K

Cintron: 4/10, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K

Hernandez: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 0 XBH

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Chan Ho Park (R)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L)

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

BULLPEN

Lidge has been nowhere near as effective as the Phillies closer in the early going this year, but has gotten through a few tough saves anyway. However, that still leaves him as one of the best closers in baseball. Ryan Madson has stepped up to be an elite setup man recently, as his velocity improved mightily over the course of 2008 and has started strong in 2009. He has had a few bad moments and a few moments of dominance thus far. The Phillies will have to make do against LHB with J.C. Romero suspended through May. Scott Eyre, Jack Taschner, and J.A. Happ are the Phillies' lefties in the pen. Happ does not have especially difficult stuff against lefties, though, and will probably be the long man. Eyre and Taschner both should not face RHB, especially Taschner who exemplified that inability well against the Nationals on Thursday. Chad Durbin is somewhat streaky, but I've remained bearish on him for a while. He still is a reasonable middle reliever to use at times. Condrey is the other middle reliever, but he should not face lefties at all if possible. The Phillies' bullpen has been extraordinary since the beginning of 2008, and has kept them in games in 2009 thus far. It is due for some regression, but I suppose the rotation is due for some improvement as well.

CL Brad Lidge (R)

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Ryan Madson (R)

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Scott Eyre (L)

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Jack Taschner (L)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Chad Durbin (R)

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Clay Condrey (R)

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

J.A. Happ (L)

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 14:26:26 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

He may not be so good at high fives, but Todd Coffey's other skills made up for it yesterday.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while playing D&D with Vin Diesel.

Jeff Suppan surprised many of us with a solid performance yesterday, but how much weight do you put on it? Tom H. called yesterday Suppan's "Redemption Day." Two-Fisted Slopper called Suppan's outing a "great success."

With that said, Citi Field is already being credited as one of baseball's greatest pitcher's parks. Buster Olney and Ryan Braun both noted how hard it is to hit the ball out. It's likely not a coincidence that the two teams averaged less than three runs per contest this weekend despite starts from Jeff Suppan, Livan Hernandez and Nelson Figueroa.

For context, Nelson Figueroa pitched at about the same level as Jeff Suppan yesterday, and after the game he was designated for assignment.

A couple of other Citi Field tidbits: Here's Brian Anderson's view from the broadcast booth and Cute Sports' rundown of complaints about the views from the visitors bullpen and radio booth.

There were, however, no complaints about the performance of Todd Coffey. Coffey recorded eight outs for the save yesterday. Even though a pitcher who completes the last three innings of a win is awarded a save regardless of the score, Coffey's 2.2 inning save yesterday was the 17th longest save since the start of the 2008 season, and the longest in a game decided by less than four runs. Michael Hunt thinks the Brewer bullpen may have reached a turning point. Certainly, Trevor Hoffman's projected Sunday return won't hurt.

So, having salvaged one win in New York, the Brewers move on to Philadelphia, where they're not looking to avenge their 2008 playoff defeat. That's a good thing, because trading a playoff series loss for a win in April wouldn't be fair anyway.

Jason Kendall might get more than his usual day off this week, as it's being reported that he's playing with a sore arm after being hit by a foul tip over the weekend. I don't think anyone around here will be too upset if Mike Rivera gets a few extra starts.

For some, though, it's a story when their arm isn't sore. Mark Rogers hit 97 on the gun in his second outing back with Brevard County. He's on a 50 pitch limit for the first half of the season, but has pitched two trouble-free outings. (h/t FanShot)

Across the league:

Angels: Vladimir Guerrero has a torn pec muscle, will miss at least a month and may not play the field again in 2009.
Astros: Scheduled a press conference for tonight and are expected to announce they've picked up Cecil Cooper's option for 2010.
Blue Jays: Placed Michael Barrett on the DL with a torn muscle and possible fracture in his shoulder.
Braves: Designated Blaine Boyer for assignment.
Mets: Placed Brian Schneider on the DL with a strained muscle in his back.
Nationals: Placed CF Roger Bernadina on the DL with a broken ankle and Cristian Guzman on the DL with a hamstring strain. They also designated Wil Ledezma and Steven Shell for assignment and signed Ryan Zimmerman to a five year deal worth $45 million.
Padres: Placed Walter Silva on the DL with a forearm strain.
Rangers: Designated reliever Josh Rupe for assignment.
Red Sox: Brad Wilkerson, who had been playing in AAA Pawtucket, has decided to retire.
Twins: Designated Phil Humber for assignment and claimed Juan Morillo off waivers from the Rockies. Humber was considered a key part of the deal that sent Johan Santana to the Mets.

This is small sample size in all of its glory, but there's a lot of early talk about home runs flying out of New Yankee Stadium, and phrases like pitcher's nightmare are being thrown about. Maybe someone is already doing this, but it certainly doesn't look like it: If you can design a system that analyzes new ballparks and estimates their park factor before they open, you might be in line to make a lot of money.

Oh, and Mr. Met has an office at Citi Field.

Drink up.

The Washington Nationals Just Can't Win...Florida Marlins 9 Nationals 6.

Ed Chigliak — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 21:47:41 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

Washington Nationals' center fielder Roger Bernadina catches a fly ball hit by Florida Marlins' Dan Uggla for the out, but is injured on the play in the eighth inning of a baseball game at Nationals Park in Washington Saturday, April 18, 2009. Marlins won 9-6 in 11 innings, Bernadina left the game after the play.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Browse more photos »

Quick Take...

Elijah Dukes, in the midst of a 6-game hitting streak, shows up late to the park and gets benched. Scott Olsen has his best start of the year and the bullpen blows it. Roger Bernadina, filling in for Dukes, makes the best catch of the year, so far, and injures his ankle when he collides with the wall, and DC Closer "Wild" Joel Hanrahan, for the second-straight game, is handed a lead and allows a HR to tie it in the ninth...The Nationals lose for the fifth time in five games against Florida this season. 9-6 final.

Elijah Dukes...

Elijah Dukes was in the Washington Nationals' lineup when I originally posted it just before noon today, but by the time I got to work I had a message on my phone with an updated lineup that had Roger Bernadina starting in center for DC. When I logged on to the Washington Post's Nationals Journal to see what I could find, I read Chico Harlan's article entitled, "Dukes Scratched For Violating Team Rule", which simply stated that Mr. Harlan had heard that, "Dukes was five minutes late for the team's workout today, which prompted the punishment".

About halfway through the game, while I was at work and following along on the radio and GameThread, I read some posts about "Acting" General Manager Mike Rizzo's comments, and how some thought the team's reaction harsh, while some applauded the insistence on discipline, but when I found the quotes that were referenced, it was actualy an unattributed statement in MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article on Elijah Dukes entitled, "Nats discipline Dukes for tardiness", where Mr. Ladson had written:

"Both acting general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Manny Acta made the decision to let Dukes sit out the game, and the outfielder was warned that if he was late again, he would be optioned to Triple-A Syracuse."

Dukes, (who played late in the game when Roger Bernadina, starting in center in Dukes' stead, suffered what's now been diagnosed as a fractured ankle as he crashed into the wall while making a diving play you'll be seeing for years), was in the midst of a six-game hitting streak, having take over the starting spot when Lastings Milledge was sent to Triple-A Syracuse.

The latest word, in a post game article entitled, "Injury Problems, Closer Problems", again, by the Washington Post's Chico Harlan, is that Dukes arrived late "to work", as DC Manager Manny Acta put it in Mr. Harlan's article:

"...because he was doing something that we encourage our players to do: He was out in the community doing something for some Little League program and just showed up late..."

Five minutes late because he was doing charity wor...and Bernadina eventually gets injur...Whatever, next...

Why Avoid It Any Longer?

Is Joel Hanrahan fit to be a closer? I don't call him "Wild" Joel Hanrahan for nothing, and there is the whole running joke (which only I perpetuate) that there exists a DC Closer Tradition of "Making It Interesting", but it's supposed to wild as in wildly effective, and making it interesting as in, "Phew, that was close, but we escaped with the win,"...It's not supposed to be a 1-7 team suffering their eighth and ninth losses because the closer can't keep the ball in the park.

Last night it was Marlins' center fielder Cody Ross who tied it at 2-2 when Hanrahan surrendered a solo shot on a hanging slider. This afternoon, Hanrahan came on in the ninth with a three-run lead and alternated K's and singles, the second of which scored Alfredo Amezaga to make it 6-4 DC. Three fastballs later, Jeremy Hermida had launched a two-run HR to tie it at 6-6, and Hanrahan had blown his second-straight game.

Hanrahan's line: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 HR and 3 K's...

Since taking over as the closer following Jon Rauch's trade to Arizona last July, Hanrahan's blown 5 of 14 save opportunities, and these last two are the difference between a three game winning streak that leaves DC 3-7 and a two-game losing streak that finds the Nationals 1-9. So who's next in line as the closer if Joel Hanrahan can't hold onto the job?

Milledge Out, Bernadina In, Bernadina Out, It's Justin Maxwell's Turn...

Justin Maxwell was hitting .226 with 2 HR's and 4 RBI's, a .333 OBP, .493 SLG and .753 OPS in 8 games and 31 at bats with Triple-A Syracuse before being called up to back up in the outfied.

The Positives...A Quick List...

Austin Kearns' Grand Slam.
Nick Johnson was 2 for 4 with 1 RBI, now hitting .371.
Ryan Zimmerman 2 for 5 with his 9th RBI, now hitting .277.
Adam Dunn walked twice.
Scott Olsen's line: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 HR, 5 K's, 103 pitches.
There's Another Game Tomorrow...

Tomorrow's Matchup...Marlins' starter Chris Volstad against Daniel Cabrera. 1:35 pm EST.

Final Score - 9-6 Marlins over Nationals.

Nationals now 1-9.

Elijah Dukes Just Hit A 3-0 Pitch Out Of The Yard. The Nationals Win Their 1st Game Of '09!!!

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 02:41:03 -0000

More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

8 months ago: Washington Nationals pitcher Shairon Martis delivers a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning of a baseball game in Washington, Thursday, April 16, 2009. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

Browse more photos »

Everything went right tonight in the Washington Nationals' first win of 2009...I mean when was the last time a Washington Nationals' hitter even took a swing at a 3-0 pitch, none the less launched it like Elijah Dukes did to put the nation's capital's favorite baseball team up 7-2 in the eighth inning of what would eventually be an 8-2 win. Adam Dunn goes deeeeep to right, for a 3-run blast in the first and Washington holds the lead over the next eight innings with 22-year-old DC starter Shairon Martis finally providing the calming influence on the mound that the Nationals have been looking for through eight games of the '09 season. Oh, and Nick Johnson likes the 2-spot!

More to come soon...Nationals win. Nationals win. 8-2 Final.

SHAKE N BAKE!!!

Adam Dunn got it...Adam Dunn got all the runs the Nationals would need with one swing of the bat in the first, as Philly starter "Joltin'" Joe Blanton delivered a BP fastball on a 2-2 count that ended up in the second deck in right for a 3-0 Nationals' lead. The Phillies came back against DC starter Shairon Martis, with a two-out single by Raul Ibanez scoring Chase Utley from second in the fourth and a sac fly by Jimmy Rollins scoring Lou Marson, after Marson had doubled to lead off the fifth, but that was all Shairon Martis would allow. Martis (W, 1-0), completes 6.1 IP, allows 5 hits, 2 ER, 2 BB and strikes out 1 in the win, throwing 86 pitches, 49 for strikes and handing the ball to lefty, Mike Hinckley, set-up man, Joe Beimel and the DC closer "Wild" Joel Hanrahan, giving the DC Faithful the first look at the bullpen that will be used to close out wins this season...

Hello, Nick Johnson!!!

Manny Acta's decision to move Nick Johnson to the 2-spot behind Anderson Hernandez paid off immediately with the left-handed hitting first baseman 3 for 4 with three line drive singles and 1 line drive out. Adam Dunn hits his 3rd HR of the year, goes 1 for 3 and K's twice. Nice. Ryan Zimmerman 2 for 4 with his 8th RBI. Alberto Gonzalez 2 for 4 with his 1st HR. Elijah Dukes goes 1 for 4 with a solo shot on a 3-0 pitch from Philly lefty Jack Taschner. Josh Willingham came off the bench and launched one. 13 hits, 8 runs...In case you hadn't noticed, the Nationals' offense is not the problem, and the pitching finally came through tonight in the win.

A Defensive Replacement...

Roger Bernandina made his first appearance of the year for the Nationals, coming on late in left field in place of the defensively-challenged, Adam Dunn, who had don..who's work was don...Forget it...Bernandina comes on to play left in the top eighth and takes a walk when he comes to bat with two down in the bottom of the frame. A stolen base, and a clutch single by Anderson Hernandez and the Nationals are manufacturing runs.

"Yes, Hinckley, H-I-N-C-K-L-E-Y. Yeah they signed Beimel. Late Spring..Han-ra-han. Joel. He's the closer, yes..."

Nationals' lefty Mike Hinckley came on in the seventh with the Nationals clinging to a 3-2 lead. Shairon Martis struggled to record the first out of the frame and the Phillies got a left-handed bat, Gregg Dobbs off the bench to hit for Blanton. DC Manager Manny Acta called on Hinckley to get the last two outs of the inning, and forced Philly Skipper Charlie Manuel to burn Dobbs for the right-handed hitting Eric Bruntlett, who hit a groundout to second, followed by Jimmy Rollins who flew out to Austin Kearns in right. Joe Beimel got a fly ball to left out of Shane Victorino, got Chase Utley chasing a two-strike curve and popped Ryan Howard up to center, where Elijah Dukes settled under and made the grab to end the eighth...and DC Closer "Wild" Joel Hanrahan overpowered the Phillies, popping up Jayson Werth, striking out Raul Ibanez and drawing a fly ball out of Pedro Feliz for Austin Kearns to catch ending the Nationals' first win.

Nationals win. 8-2 final.

For The Completists, Complete Game Report After The Jump...

Nationals now 1-7.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals. Game 8 of 162.

Shairon Martis is wearing the star-spangled DC logo on blue home jersey and Martis and the rest of the Washington Nationals are all wearing the start-spangled DC logo on their navy blue red-brimmed caps. Ryan Zimmerman charges in to field a weak grounder from Jimmy Rollins, and throws to first is in time for the first out. Shane Victorino makes Elijah Dukes take a step back first, but he comes in and makes the catch on a line drive to center. Shairon Martis makes the mistake of walking Chase Utley in front of Ryan Howard, but Martis gets Howard swinging at a change off the plate to end the top of the first...Chase Utley fires to first a step ahead of a sprinting Anderson Hernandez. Nick Johnson takes a change on the outside edge to left center for a line drive single. Ryan Zimmerman rips a single by third, and an errant throw in advances both runners. Adam Dunn...SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!!! 3-Run Dunn HR and it’s 3-0 Nationals early. Elijah Dukes sends Chase Utley back to the track in center. Austin Kearns sends one out to short right to end the first.

Elijah Dukes backs up to the top of the curly-W in the outfield grass to catch the first out of the second off of Jayson Werth’s bat. Raul Ibanez grounds a fastball out to second. Fly ball, center, Elijah Dukes catches Pedro Feliz’s pop fly...Jesus Flores K’s to start the DC second. Alberto “The General” Gonzalez pushes a single out to right. Shairon Martis K’s on a third attempt at a bunt. Anderson Hernandez flies out to left. 3-0 Nationals...

Lou Marson slices a line drive to center for a leadoff single in the third. Joe Blanton moves Marson over. Jimmy Rollins grounds out unproductively to Nick Johnson at first. Shane Victorino tries for a bunt single but Martis is on it...Nick Johnson lines a single over second. Ryan Zimmerman gets a slow bender and swings a foot over it for strike three. Adam Dunn gets jammed and pops out to second. Elijah Dukes grounds sharply to third, Feliz takes the force at second...

Anderson Hernandez can only turn and watch Chase Utley’s scorched single roll into right. Ryan Howard grounds weakly to first. Utley moves up. Jayson Werth pops up behind the plate. Raul Ibanez brings Utley around with a hard line drive to center. 3-1 Nationals. Pedro Feliz grounds to short, Gonzalez takes the force at second...Austin Kearns tops off a grounder. Jesus Flores flies out to center. Alberto Gonzales pushes the third out to right. 3-1 after 4.

Lou Marson hugs the line in right with a weak fly ball single. Blanton with the sac bunt. Jimmy Rollins flies out to right on a hanging 0-2 pitch and brings Philly within one. 3-2 DC. Shane Victorino’s fly reaches the right field track but that’s all...3-2 Nationals...Joe Blanton throws three fastballs by Elijah Dukes. Anderson Hernandez rips a line drive single to right. Nick Johnson hits his third straight single. Ryan Zimmerman grounds to third, Pedro Feliz to Ultey at second, Howard at first, double play.

Alberto Gonzalez backpedals into center and catches Chase Utley’s pop fly. Martis misses with a full count pitch to Howard that may have been designed for Howard to chase. DC SS Alberto Gonzalez goes back to catch Werth’s fly ball in short left. Raul Ibanez floats a two-out single to left. Martis gets a broken bat grounder out of Pedro Feliz to hold the DC lead through five and a half...Adam Dunn K’s to start the DC sixth. Elijah Dukes flies out to center. Austin Kearns pulls a fastball to left for a two-out double. Jesus Flores walks with two down. Alberto Gonzalez flies out to right to end the sixth.

Martis gets Lou Marson to pop out for the first out of the seventh. Martis is out. Mike Hinckley vs Eric Bruntlett, who pinch hits for the pinch hitter, Greg Dobbs, who’s wasted by the Phils. Bruntlett flails at a two-strike curve and grounds out to second. Hinckley gets a fly ball to right from Jimmy Rollins, Stand up and Stretch!!...Chad Durbin takes over on the mound for Philly...Josh Willingham LAUNCHES A SOLO SHOT TO LEFT...AND GONE!!! 4-2 DC!! The HAMMER!!! Anderson Hernandez walks. Nick Johnson lines out for the first time tonight. Ryan Zimmerman up, Anderson Hernandez gets nailed trying for second on a ball in the dirt....Ryan Zimmerman walks in front of Adam Dunn. Jack Taschner on to face Dunn. Lefty vs Lefty. Dunn K’s to end the seventh.

Joe Beimel’s on for the Nationals in the eighth. Roger Bernandina, replacing Dunn in left, catches the first out off Shane Victorino’s bat. Beimel drops a two-strike bender in on Utley for a swinging strike three. Ryan Howard pops up to Dukes in center. 3-2 Nationals, middle of the eighth...Elijah “SUPER” DUKES LAUNCHES A 3-0 FASTBALL!! GONE!!!!! 5-2 NATIONALS!!! Austin Kearns pops out. Jesus Flores gets fooled and K’s for the second out. Alberto Gonzalez flies to right...and...just over the wall!!! Alberto "The General' Gonzalez, 6-2 Nationals. Roger Bernadina works a two-out walk. Roger Bernadina steals second off Taschner. Anderson Hernandez lines to right, Bernadina scores from second!! 7-2 Nationals. Taschner walks Nick Johnson. Ryan Zimmerman shatters his bat but spins a single past the infield!! Anderson Hernandez scores. 8-2 Nationals. Taschner’s out. J.A.Happ on to face Ronnie Belliard, who pops out to the pitcher.

Hanrahan gets a pop up from Werth, to the DC catcher, Jesus Flores. Raul Ibanez goes down swinging over a two-strike slider. Pedro Feliz....flies out to right. The Washington Nationals win. 8-2 final.

Nationals now 1-7.

The Washington Nationals Send Lastings Milledge To Triple-A Syracuse.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 04:23:21 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

8 months ago: Washington Nationals center fielder Lastings Milledge catches the fly ball off the bat of Atlanta Braves' Casey Kotchman during the eighth inning of a baseball game on Saturday, April 11, 2009, in Atlanta. Atlanta won 5-3. (AP Photo/John Amis)

Browse more photos »

In a 2/13/09 article by MLB.com's Bill Ladson entitled, "Nats' corner outfield spots up for grabs", Washington Nationals' Manager Manny Acta emphatically stated that while the corner outfield spots were up for grabs with Josh Willingham, Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and Elijah Dukes battling it out for the starting spots, there was no decision to made in Spring Training as to who would play center field in DC this season:

"We have a center fielder,' Acta said. 'Lastings played the whole season there last year.'"

As far back as October '08, after Milledge had drawn quite a bit of unwanted attention with his approach to the position, Washington Post writer Chico Harlan, in a Nationals Notebook article entitled, "Milledge May Be Placed in Corner for '09", (with the Former DC GM Jim Bowden stating publicly, as Mr. Harlan wrote, "...that the Nationals would explore a position change in the outfield 'to upgrade our defense,'") the Nationals' Manager was resolute, according to Mr. Harlan, who noted that, "Manny Acta has often defended Milledge's outfield play this season."

After it was announced this afternoon that Lastings Milledge had been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse after some more shaky play in the field and a lack of patience or production at the plate in the first few games of the season, neither MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article on the move entitled, "MIlledge demoted to Triple-A", or the Washington Post's article by Chico Harlan entitled, "Milledge Optioned To Class AAA Syracuse", (ed. note - "Yeah, old school 'Class AAA', nice"), had any comments from DC Manager Manny Acta at all, instead it was "Acting" GM Mike Rizzo who spoke to the press, telling Mr. Ladson, that Milledge:

"'...took the demotion like a professional,' Rizzo said. "We had a good dialogue about a lot of things. He was unhappy and eager to show me that he belongs in the Major Leagues. Lastings Milledge plays extremely hard. I have very little problems with Lastings' attitude and his work ethic.'"

Mr. Rizzo's remarks about "Lastings' attitude and his work ethic" seem to be a direct response to comments in an eerily prescient article by Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell entitled, "It's Time To Get Serious", in which Mr. Boswell wrote, after the home opener, of the goings-on inside the Nationals' locker room, where, Mr. Boswell noted:

"...the Nationals are tired of Lastings Milledge, their 24-year-old outfielder, acting like a 10-year veteran who has earned a central position in their locker room, when, in fact, he has accomplished very little."

But it was Mr. Boswell's comments about an impending move that had the Natosphere abuzz today with a lot of, "He must have known" speculation after Milledge was actually optioned, as Mr. Boswell had written well before the official announcement:

"So don't be surprised if, fairly soon, the Nats' clogged outfield problem is solved, at least temporarily, in an unexpected way: by sending Milledge back to the minor leagues."

Milledge's comments? In MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article entitled, "Milledge demoted to Triple-A", Mr. Ladson talks to a surprised Milledge on the phone who states:

"'It was a shocker,' Milledge said via telephone. 'I thought I would be given more than 24 at-bats [to get it going]. Mike is the boss, so he has to do what was best for the team. He told me I needed to work on my hitting and defense.'"

As of now, Elijah Dukes will assume the everyday duties in center field, and the speculation in Mr. Ladson's article is that OF Roger Bernadina will be called up from Syracuse to take Milledge's roster spot along with IF Alex Cintron, whose presence is necessitated by the injury Cristian Guzman suffered at the end of the home opener Monday, which is being reported as a hamstring "strain"...

Have we seen the last of "Leadoff Lasto"? Does he jump to the top of the to-be-traded list? Or does getting demoted by the 0-7 Nationals destroy any value a player might have in other team's eyes? Can Dukes stay healthy? Can Bernadina shed the AAAA label? Will the Washington Nationals ever win? (ed. note - "Shouldn't have gone with the Spring Training #, Lasto.")

(ed. note - "For another opinion on the Nationals' decision to send Milledge to Syracuse, check out this article from Mike Silva's NY Baseball Digest entitled, "Milledge Following the Path of Ryan Thompson".)

(another ed. note - "On another OF-related topic):

He Said It Not Me...

MLB.com's Bill Ladson, in the most recent edition of his weekly Q&A feature entitled, "Inbox: When will Zimmermann arrive?", when asked if Adam Dunn was the worst fielding outfielder he'd ever seen, responds by stating:

"There is no question that Dunn is a below-average fielder, and it would be nice for him to get to Nationals Park early before games and work on his defense."

Uh...ouch.

Poll

The Decision To Send Lastings Milledge To Triple-A Syracuse Was...

Long overdue...?

39 votes

A Prelude To A Trade...?

9 votes

A Necessary Step If He's Going To Develop Defensively...?

33 votes

The Worst Decision "Acting" GM Mike Rizzo Has Made?

19 votes

A Great Opportunity For Elijah Dukes To Show What He Can Do...?

36 votes

The Best News Syracuse Has Heard Since Derrick Coleman Wore Orange...?

3 votes

139 votes | Poll has closed

Link Roundup: Nats Demote Milledge, and Minor League News

Charlie — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 23:58:10 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

Lastings Milledge beats Chase Utley's tag in Monday's game.

Browse more photos »

-P- The Nationals have sent Lastings Milledge to the minors, thus clearing more playing time for Elijah Dukes and Josh Willingham. Neither Milledge nor the Nationals are off to a good start, but one would think that a team with enough capable outfielders to try this stunt (it's only been a week!) and such incredible needs in other areas would start making some trades. Even with Milledge in the minors, the Nats have Dukes, Willingham, Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns to man the outfield. In Class AAA, they also have Roger Bernadina, who'd make a nice fourth outfielder for a team with as many lumbering outfielders as the Nats. One would think they'd try to deal someone, perhaps WIllingham or Kearns, for some pitching.

-P- After missing the first week of the season with a wrist injury, second base prospect Shelby Ford is back in business for Indianapolis.

-P- Robbie Grossman is off to a great start for West Virginia.

-P- Zach Duke credits Joe Kerrigan for the Pirates' starters' strong beginning. That's to be expected--crediting coaches for strong performances is just part of ballplayer etiquette--but if the Pirates continue to pitch so well while looking as different as they have in past years, it won't be long before I start crediting Kerrigan too.

WE WANT ELIJAH DUKES!! Who Belongs In the Washington Nationals' Outfield?

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 06:01:20 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Browse more photos »

MLB.com's Bill Ladson is back with another edition of, "Inbox: What is the best outfield trio", where Mr. Ladson answers a question about the best possible outfield alignment for the Washington Nationals by throwing the questioner a curve and saying that instead of the Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns outfield that this fan suggests, Mr. Ladson would like to see Adam Dunn and:

"(Justin) Maxwell and Roger Bernadina as the other outfielders. I've often said this, I want to see Washington play the kids."

Mr. Ladson* goes on to say that he knows the Nationals' braintrust, President Stan Kasten, acting General Manager Mike Rizzo and Manager Manny Acta, thinks differently, but in his opinion, "...Maxwell and Bernadina are ready. They are better than some of the outfielders the Nationals have now."

(ed. note - "Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Josh Willingham...Which of these outfielders do you think Maxwell or Bernadina is better than? I have my own guess at to which outfielder(s?) Mr. Ladson means...You?)

DC's OF Situation...

Anyone who's been reading Federal Baseball.com all winter knows that I had Elijah Dukes pencilled in as the Nationals' starting right fielder, (though I always allowed for the fact the Austin Kearns' defense alone could win him the job), but after the last few seasons watching Kearns, I could never have been convinced that it would've been Kearns' bat that earned him the Opening Day spot in right field.

USA Today MLB Fantasy writer Steve Gardner , in an article entitled, "Take spring numbers with a grain of salt", puts the numbers behind DC Manager Manny Acta's decision to go with Kearns over Dukes in right, writing in the April 8-14, '09 newsstand edition of the USA TODAY Sports Weekly supplement that while it's acknowledged that Spring Training games, "don't mean anything", there are reasons that,"...they still keep score." :

"For instance, the Washington Nationals conducted an open competition for their starting right field job-- and even though Elijah Dukes is considerably more talented than Austin Kearns, his .212 average and .327 slugging percentage were nowhere close to Kearns' .279 and .581. So Kearns begins the season as the starter and Dukes finds himself scrounging for leftover at-bats."

(ed. note - "Dukes vs Milledge? If you go by Mr. Gardner's standard of AVG. and SLG., as deciding factors, even at .212 AVG, and .327 SLG, Dukes had Lastings Milledge beat for the center field job, based solely on Spring Training stats, with Milledge posting a, (.205 AVG and a .288 SLG, with a .256 OBP, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 4 walks, 2 SB and 14 K's in 23 games and 73 at bats)...Dukes' complete Spring output? (.212 AVG, .327 SLG, .353 OBP, 3 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI's in 19 games and 52 at bats). So why was Milledge given the starting spot in center?...)

The ROTOWIRE Analysis from FANGRAPHS.com (dated 4/4/09) has a note about Kearns beating out Dukes, which states that:

"Kearns clearly outplayed Dukes this spring, out-OPS'ing him 1.017 to .632. Dukes also struck out twice as much (22 to 10). Its unclear how long Kearns will own the right field job, but Dukes will be the No. 2 at all three outfield spots until he gets starting time."

In a 4/4/09 FANGRAPHS.com article by Dave Cameron entitled, "Kicking Hope in the Groin", written on Opening Day, Mr. Cameron looks around the Majors and notes how it's a, "...day full optimism for everyone -- the teams who were bad last year offering up reasons why this year will be different.":

"Except in Washington, where it's apparently more of the same...Elijah Dukes, the best player on the team, is not in the line-up today. He's not injured. He's not being punished for an off the field transgression. He just had a bad spring..."

Back in a November 9, 2008 article by David Golebiewski entitled, "Elijah Dukes' Breakout Prophecy", in FANGRAPHS.com's RotoGraphs section, Mr. Golebiewski argued that, "Elijah Dukes has the skills to establish himself as a breakout star in 2009" and Mr Golebiewski writes that Dukes':

"...plate discipline is pretty refined for a guy who's just 24, as he swung at just 20.34% of pitches thrown outside the strike zone. The strikeout rate was very high and figures to remain so in the future (his contact percentage was 70.38% and his minor league K% was 24.4), but Dukes possesses the secondary skills (walks and power) to compensate for a batting average in the .250-.260 range. Great on-base skills, power and 10-20 steals to boot? That's a pretty valuable player."

How valuable? Mr. Golebiewski's colleague, Mr. Cameron, calculated just how valuable Dukes could be to the DC lineup in his article, "Kicking Hope in the Groin", writing:

"Dukes had a .382 wOBA last year to go along with a UZR/150 of +13.7. In about 60% of a season’s worth of playing time, he was worth 2.9 wins to the Nationals, which put him on a +5 win pace over a full season. Five win players go to the all-star game, sign really big contracts, and become heroes to their fans."

The Washington Nationals need a hero. Elijah Dukes needs to start.

FANGRAPHS.com: Elijah Dukes' Stats.

FANGRAPHS.com: Lastings Milledge's Stats.

(ed. note - " * = While the Nationals had the day off on Thursday, the franchise's Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse, New York had their Opening Day with DC-(or DCMR)-starter-to-be, Jordan Zimmerman(n) on the mound and two-thirds of Mr. Ladson's outfield in the lineup for the Chiefs against the Rochester Red Wings...Bernadina was 1 for 5 with 3 K's. Maxwell was hitless in 5 AB's. Kory Casto? The Last Cut? 4 for 4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI's. Jordan Zimmerman(n)? In his first start above Double-A?

Zimmerman(n)'s Line: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K's, 2 HR, 84 pitches, 59 strikes, GO/FO - 7/5.)

The Chief's lost the game, 7-4 final. Jason Bergmann (BS) Gary Glover (L).

Jordan Zimmermann's first MLB start is scheduled for April 19th, 2009 against the the Florida Marlins.

Tonight: Washington at Atlanta. Shairon Martis (0-0) vs Derek Lowe. 7:30 pm EST from Turner Field in Atlanta, GA. Martis' 1st start of '09? Can the youngest pitcher on the Nationals' staff show the rest how it's done? Can the Nationals avoid losing 4-straight to start the season?

Who's Watching The Nationals? (Game Thread will be up this afternoon.)

Poll

Who Should Be Playing CF For DC's Nationals?

Lastings Milledge?

19 votes

Elijah Dukes?

87 votes

Willie Harris?

4 votes

Roger Bernadina?

5 votes

115 votes | Poll has closed