SB Nation - Ronald Belisario

Dodgers Value Important Portables; Fans Need Potent Potables

Eric Stephen — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 15:16:27 -0000

Tired of long lines at Dodger Stadium? Don't worry, portable concession stands are on the way!

I have read and re-read Bill Shaikin's interview with Dodger President Dennis Mannion in the LA Times many times, trying to wrap my head around it. Every time I see the words, I get angry. Angry that the Dodgers have a man in Mannion running the baseball operations who doesn't seem to have a clue how teams are built.

On potentially receiving draft picks for offering Randy Wolf and/or Orlando Hudson arbitration:

And is it worth a premium draft pick? That's also showing bizarre behavior, in my opinion, in terms of teams bidding against themselves for draft picks. That's been going on for a while on the amateur side of the business. But it's happening now on the international side, with guys you don't know anything about.

It's strange to me to see teams operate in a way where they bid against themselves for unknown talent, and at the same time, you have this plethora of guys in the system that maybe are not developing appropriately, i.e. a (Ronald) Belisario. That's interesting stuff to me. I think it's really fascinating. It's probably the upside of having very tough economic times.

Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Bilingsley, James Loney, Russell Martin, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Ramon Troncoso, just to name a few, were all acquired by the Dodgers as amateurs. Young talent is the driving force behind a Dodger team that has reached two straight National League Championship Series. But Mannion -- who runs the baseball operations for the team, by the way -- doesn't see their value.

Mannion uses a diversion tactic here. Draft picks are a crap shoot, he says, but hey, look over here. Remember when we signed Ronald Belisario out of nowhere? Look, something shiny. Look over here instead!

My advice to Mannion, in order to deal with the problem of "guys you don't know anything about," is this: That's what scouts are for. You have Logan White. Use him.

Shaikin then asked about the concern over the cost of extra draft picks (Shaikin's question is in bold):

Since Wolf probably would have signed a long-term contract somewhere else even if the Dodgers had offered him arbitration, how worried were you about the millions it might cost to sign the draft picks you would have gotten in return?

You're dealing with a very fluid situation. Those millions that are potentially in play, they can manifest themselves where the opportunity is. If the opportunity is in buying more portable concession stands, then that's what you do. If the opportunity is buying some international talent that you have a very good handle on, that's what you do. In this particular world, you're making those assessments on a daily basis.

I like being able to have more opportunities to buy a hefeweizen and a Dodger Dog as much as the next guy, but I'd rather have a few more draft picks. Mannion uses another diversion tactic here: he was asked about draft picks, and answered about a choice between stadium upgrades and amateur international talent. Mannion's "portable concession stands" rings as hollow as Jamie McCourt's "50 Little League fields" comments last season.

I don't know how many times we've talked about this since the season ended, but the Dodgers will be good in 2010. There is too much talent still around to think otherwise. But investing in player development isn't a one-time event. I just hope the Dodgers figure it out before the cupboard runs dry.

2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 07:14:56 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

You know you're good when you are projected to strikeout 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2010, and that's a drop of nearly two strikeouts from 2009.

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Last month, Sean Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way released his 2010 CHONE projections for offense. Now, we have the pitching projections as well. More info can be found at BaseballProjection.com. I have added the projections for many Dodgers, including some outgoing free agents, to go with the projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook. As more projection systems release their projections, I will add them so we can get a more complete overall preview of the 2010 Dodgers.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	115	4.15	4.30	4.46	7.98
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 Bill James	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 CHONE	151	3.58	3.68	4.65	9.42
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 CHONE	161	3.69	3.70	3.75	8.72
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 Bill James	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 CHONE	182	3.71	3.73	3.76	8.60
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 CHONE	158	4.04	4.24	2.28	6.04
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 Bill James	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 CHONE	154	4.32	3.99	2.45	6.31
2010 status	under contract

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 CHONE	124	4.43	4.44	3.63	7.48
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 Bill James	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 CHONE	163	4.42	4.38	3.09	6.52
2010 status	free agent

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 CHONE	152	4.91	4.77	3.55	6.34
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 Bill James	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 CHONE	155	4.70	4.74	3.60	6.27
2010 status	free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 CHONE	187	5.01	4.50	2.60	4.91
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 Bill James	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 CHONE	186	4.55	4.53	2.71	4.60
2010 status	free agent
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 CHONE	72	2.88	2.80	3.25	10.88
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 Bill James	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 CHONE	67	2.69	2.51	3.36	11.82
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 CHONE	43	3.77	4.01	4.60	8.79
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 Bill James	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 CHONE	52	3.63	3.77	3.98	9.35
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 CHONE	45	3.00	2.71	3.00	11.00
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 Bill James	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 CHONE	39	3.23	3.23	3.23	9.69
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	37	6.08	6.58	5.11	5.59
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 Bill James	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 CHONE	60	4.50	4.55	4.05	7.50
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	60	4.20	4.08	3.60	6.75
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 Bill James	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 CHONE	71	4.06	3.95	3.55	6.59
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	127	4.54	5.12	4.11	7.72
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 Bill James	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 CHONE	62	3.77	4.05	4.06	9.29
2010 status	under club control

Scott Elbert
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	43	3.98	4.36	5.65	10.47
2009 actual	19.2	5.03	4.73	3.20	9.61
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	47	3.64	3.81	4.60	10.72
2010 status	under club control

Cory Wade
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2009 CHONE	53	3.74	4.02	2.55	7.30
2009 actual	27.2	5.53	4.13	3.25	5.86
2010 Bill James	---	---	---	---	---
2010 CHONE	62	4.21	4.41	3.05	7.11
2010 status	under club control

In addition, here are some other notable 2010 CHONE projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	138	4.89	4.61	3.72	6.59	under club control (out of options)
Charlie Haeger	170	4.98	5.14	4.34	6.51	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	49	4.41	4.48	3.12	6.43	free agent

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Blake and DeWitt are two of seven players currently on the 40-man roster who have links to Dodgers past.

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Major league 40-man rosters were set last Friday in preparation for the upcoming Rule 5 draft in two weeks. With the free agency period just starting, there are many open spots on rosters throughout baseball. The Dodgers, for instance, have 33 players on their 40-man roster. Over the next few weeks, free agents will be signed and some players will be non-tendered, so rosters will change, but for now let's look at the 33 Dodgers and how they became Dodgers.

Almost half of the Dodgers currently on the 40-man roster -- 16 of 33 -- were drafted by the team with their own draft pick:

Draft(ed) Dodgers
Player	Year	Round	Pick

James Loney	2002	1	19
Jonathan Broxton	2002	2	60
James McDonald	2002	11	331
Eric Stults	2002	15	451
Russell Martin	2002	17	511

Chad Billingsley	2003	1	24
Xavier Paul	2003	4	121
Matt Kemp	2003	6	181
Lucas May	2003	8	241
A.J. Ellis	2003	18	541

Scott Elbert	2004	1	17
Javy Guerra	2004	4	118
Cory Wade	2004	10	298

Brent Leach	2005	6	196
Trayvon Robinson	2005	10	316

Clayton Kershaw	2006	1	7

These are pretty straight forward original transactions, as are these other four amateur free agents:

Amateur Free Agents
Player	Date	Origin
Hong-Chih Kuo	6/19/99	Taiwan
Ramon Troncoso	6/20/02	Dominican Republic
Chin-Lung Hu	1/31/03	Taiwan
Kenley Jansen	11/17/04	Curacao

That makes 20 of 33 Dodgers who are with are with their original club. In addition to them, there are six more Dodgers that joined the club independent of other players. That is, their acquisitions aren't linked to anyone else:

Free Agents
Player	Date
Rafael Furcal	12/19/05
Juan Pierre	11/22/06
Travis Schlichting*	10/7/07
Hiroki Kuroda	12/16/07
Ronald Belisario*	1/13/09
Charlie Haeger*	1/17/09
*minor league free agents

This is where we get to the fun part of this exercise, as reminded by Rocknjosie in her excellent Fan Post last month. There are seven Dodgers left that were acquired as the result, directly or indirectly, of previous transactions. These are listed in chronological order based on the earliest transaction.

Andre Ethier
Date	Transaction
6/1/88	drafted Mike Piazza in the 62nd round (#1390 overall)
8/4/96	signed Luke Allen as an undrafted free agent
12/8/96	signed Todd Zeile as a free agent
5/14/98	traded Piazza and Zeile to Marlins for Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles Johnson, and Manuel Barrios
11/18/00	signed Franklin Gutierrez as an amateur free agent
1/15/02	traded Sheffield to Braves for Odalis Perez, Brian Jordan, and Andrew Brown
1/17/03	traded Allen to Colorado for Jason Romano
4/3/04	traded Romano to Tampa Bay for Antonio Perez
4/3/04	traded Gutierrez and Brown to Cleveland for Milton Bradley
12/13/05	traded Bradley and Perez to Oakland for Ethier
Total Related Players: 9

Blake DeWitt
Date	Transaction
11/21/87	signed Pedro Astacio as an amateur free agent
6/14/91	signed Ismael Valdez as an amateur free agent
8/28/94	signed Luke Prokopec as an amateur free agent
8/19/97	traded Astacio to Rockies for Eric Young
12/12/99	traded Young and Valdez to Cubs for Terry Adams, Brian Stephenson, and Chad Ricketts
12/31/01	traded Prokopec and Ricketts to Toronto for Cesar Izturis and Paul Quantrill
12/17/03	Quantrill signed as a free agent with the Yankees
6/7/04	drafted DeWitt with a compensation first round pick (#28 overall)
Total Related Players: 6

Ivan DeJesus
Date	Transaction
7/7/94	signed Adrian Beltre as an amateur free agent
12/17/04	Beltre signed as a free agent with Seattle
6/7/05	drafted DeJesus with a compensation second round pick (#51 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Jason Repko
Date	Transaction
1/16/96	signed Scott Radinsky as a free agent
11/23/98	Radinsky signed as a free agent with St. Louis
6/2/99	drafted Repko with a compensation supplemental pick (#37 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Manny Ramirez
Date	Transaction
12/12/98	signed Kevin Brown as a free agent
6/3/03	drafted Andy LaRoche in the 39th round (#1171 overall)
12/13/03	traded Brown to Yankees for Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, Brandon Weeden, and cash
2/23/06	Weaver signed as a free agent with the Angels
6/6/06	drafted Bryan Morris with a compensation first round pick (#26 overall)
7/31/08	traded LaRoche and Morris to Pittsburgh in a 3-team trade; received Manny and cash from Boston
Total Related Players: 4

Casey Blake
Date	Transaction
8/13/04	signed Carlos Santana as an amateur free agent
6/7/05	drafted Jon Meloan in fifth round (#166 overall)
7/26/08	traded Santana and Meloan to Cleveland for Blake, and cash
Total Related Players: 2

George Sherrill
Date	Transaction
6/7/05	drafted Josh Bell in the second round (#74 overall)
6/7/05	drafted Steven Johnson in the 13th round (#406 overall)
7/30/09	traded Bell and Johnson to Baltimore for Sherrill
Total Related Players: 2

Pirates Face 40-Man Roster Decisions This Week

Charlie — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 02:00:54 -0000

40-man rosters have to be set by Friday, so expect some fun stuff to happen this week.

The Bucs currently have 36 players on their 40-man roster. That doesn't include Jose Ascanio and Evan Meek, who will both need to be protected by Friday. The Pirates will also have to decide whether to include a number of minor leaguers, any of whom could be selected in the Rule 5 draft in December if they aren't protected:

Brad Lincoln, Gorkys Hernandez, Bryan Morris, Ramon Aguero, Casey Erickson, Michael Dubee, Shelby Ford, Jim Negrych, Kris Watts

Of these, I'd say Lincoln and Hernandez are no-brainers.

Morris is a tricky case; scouts like him a lot and the Pirates certainly paid a pretty penny to get him, but the performance record so far hasn't been there, and it's very hard to see how he could stick on another team's 25-man roster for the entire year.

WTM is a big fan of Aguero, a reliever who spent time with West Virginia, Lynchburg and Altoona last year. Aguero had a nice season in 2009 and has followed that up with a good showing in the Dominican Winter League, but I'm agnostic here. He's almost 25, so he's not a great prospect. Every year the Pirates protect these sorts of marginal pitchers, mostly relievers--Jeff Sues, Dave Davidson, Romulo Sanchez, Luis Munoz, Olivo Astacio, Ronald Belisario, and so on--and never do they seem to get anything out of them. (Ok, Astacio was released because of behavioral issues, and Belisario blossomed with the Dodgers, but still.) The problem with Aguero is that he'd be easier than Morris to hide on a big-league roster for a year, and because he played well this year and has good stuff, there would be reason for a team who selected him to hope he wouldn't end up hurting them too badly. I'd probably protect him, but I don't think we should expect much from him in the long haul.

The other guys, though at least vaguely intriguing, can probably be left off. Erickson is too far from the majors, Dubee doesn't have great stuff, and Ford and Negrych haven't shown enough in the minors. (Negrych might have some vague chance of being taken in the Rule 5 and used as a bench bat.) Watts is only a nominal prospect because he's a catcher.

So let's say three spots will be needed for Lincoln, Hernandez and Aguero, and possibly a fourth for Morris. The Pirates would probably also prefer to leave one spot for their own Rule 5 pick, although they can also dump someone later to make room.

All this means that probably a couple of players will be dumped from the roster this week. Of those, Sues, Anthony Claggett, Justin Thomas, Brian Bixler, and Luis Cruz would all be potential candidates.

Ethier Wins "Clutch Performer Of The Year" Award

Eric Stephen — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 17:51:33 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Congratulations, Andre, for a great and "clutch" season

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The Dodgers announced yesterday that Andre Ethier won the "2009 MLB Clutch Performer of the Year Award Presented by Pepsi," an honor voted on by fans. From the Dodger press release:

Ethier led the Majors with six walk-off hits, including a Major League record four walk-off home runs (tied with Jimmie Foxx in 1940 and Roy Sievers in 1957): June 6th against the Phillies in the 12th inning; June 29th against Colorado in the 13th inning; August 6th vs. Atlanta in the 9th; and September 15th against the Pirates in the 13th. Ethier has a Major League-leading nine walk-off hits since the beginning of the 2008 season, and his six in 2009 are the most in a single-season by any player since at least 1974.

The left-handed slugger collected six multi-home run games on the year, tied for second with Philadelphia ’s Ryan Howard behind Albert Pujols (10) of the Cardinals. The Arizona State product became just the fourth Dodger in franchise history to amass at least 40 doubles and 30 home runs in the same season, joining Babe Herman (1930), Raul Mondesi (1997) and Eric Karros (1999). On June 26th against Seattle , Andre drove in a career-high six runs and compiled his first career three-homer game, becoming the ninth Dodger in franchise history to accomplish the feat.

Here is a recap of Ethier's six walk-off hits in 2009:

May 2: On Dodger Thoughts night at the ballpark, not only did I get a copy of Jon Weisman's book, but also got treated to a walk-off win. Tied at one in the 10th inning, the Dodgers loaded the bases with nobody out, when Ethier launched a single off the wall to bring home the 2-1 win over the Padres. This was the ninth straight home win to open the season, a streak that would extend to a record 13 straight before the Manny Ramirez suspension ended the fun four days later.
Ethier Walk-Off: "Single," one RBI
June 5: Down 3-2 to the Phillies, closer Brad Lidge got the first two outs easily, but then ran into some trouble. He got two strikes on each of Casey Blake and James Loney, but they managed to reach base via hit and walk, respectively. Russell Martin then grounded to Pedro Feliz, but the third baseman gave the Dodgers new life by booting the ball. Ethier came up and doubled into the corner, giving the Dodgers a thrilling 4-3 win.
Ethier Walk-Off: Double, two RBI.
June 6: The very next day, Brad Lidge blew another save, but this time to Rafael Furcal, who hit a game-tying pinch hit home run in the ninth inning. The game remained tied at two until the 12th inning, when Ethier slammed a two-out rocket to dead center off Chad Durbin for his second straight walk-off.
Ethier Walk-Off: Home Run, one RBI.
June 29: After a typically solid Randy Wolf start (two runs in six innings), the Dodgers threw a picket fence of relievers at the Rockies. Seven different relievers each pitched one inning, allowing just three baserunners while striking out 13, to keep the game tied into the bottom of the 13th. Blake led off the inning with a single, and Ethier ended it with a shot into the all-you-can-eat pavilion in right field, for a 4-2 Dodger victory, one of 14 against the Rockies in 2009.
Ethier Walk-Off: Home Run, two RBI.
August 6: Down 4-2 entering the bottom of the ninth, the Dodgers had to face Braves closer Rafael Soriano, who came into the game with a 1.80 ERA, and opposing batters were hitting just .157/.234/.221 against him. A pair of singles by Juan Pierre and Furcal gave Ethier yet another opportunity to come through. After taking two balls, Ethier hit a drive to right field that just cleared the wall, sneding Dodger fans into a frenzy yet again. As I wrote in the game recap: "After Ethier hit the home run, Vin Scully didn't speak for 45 seconds, letting the game speak for itself. Sometimes, less is more."
Ethier Walk-Off: Home Run, three RBI.
September 15: Matt Kemp's game-tying RBI single allowed the Dodgers to send the game with the Pirates into extra innings. After three scoreless innings of extra-inning relief by James McDonald (you know, the guy whose 2.72 ERA and 3.41 FIP as a reliever are woefully underappreciated), Ronald Belisario gave up the go-ahead run in the top of the 13th inning, only his second run given up in 18 appearances since returning from the disabled list. Never fear, "Endre" is here. With one out and Furcal on first base, lefty Phil Dumatrait was summoned from the bullpen to face Ethier, who struggled against lefties all season. However, Ethier at Dodger Stadium was a different story, hitting .305/.376/.610 against southpaws wearing the home whites. He came through yet again, launching a towering fly ball that reached the seats in right, his fourth walk-off dinger of the season.
Ethier Walk-Off: Home Run, two RBI.

There were six "MLB Pepsi Clutch Performer of the Month" awards given out this season, but Ethier did not win any of them. He was a candidate in June, but lost the fan vote to Tim Lincecum of the Giants.

It was an amazing season for the 27-year old Ethier. He came to the plate in the ninth inning or later representing either the tying or go-ahead run 42 times this season. All he did was slam five doubles and four home runs, and hit a whopping .448/.619/1.034 in those situations. Congratulations, Endre. This was a well-deserved award.

A Look Toward 2010: The Pitching

Eric Stephen — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Clayton Kershaw's left arm personifies the Dodgers' immediate future

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Yesterday we took a look at the offensive projections for the 2010 Dodgers, thanks to the Bill James Handbook (available November 1). Today we look at the pitching staff.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times. In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 projected	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 status	under club control

Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 projected	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 projected	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 status	Type A free agent

Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 projected	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 status	under contract

Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 projected	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 status	Type B free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included

Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 projected	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 status	mutual contract option
Garland's stats with Arizona included

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 projected	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 projected	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included

Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 projected	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 status	arbitration eliglble

Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 projected	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 status	under club control

Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 projected	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 status	under club control

James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 projected	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 status	under club control

Guillermo Mota
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	56	3.86	4.26	3.38	7.55
2009 actual	65.1	3.44	4.11	3.31	5.37
2010 projected	55	3.60	4.22	3.44	7.20
2010 status	Type B free agent

In addition, there were some 2010 projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	32	5.06	4.62	3.38	7.03	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	77	5.03	4.77	2.57	5.96	free agent
Charlie Haeger	38	4.97	5.26	4.50	6.39	under club control

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Eric Stephen — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:15:09 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

One Type B free agent greets a Type A free agent on the mound

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There will be plenty of time this offseason for moves, but here's an overview of the current Dodger 40-man roster. There are 43 players currently on the 40-man roster, including four on the 60-day disabled list. That will change quickly after the World Series as players file for free agency. I have split them into a few groups:

Free Agents (13+1)

Type A*: Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf

Type B*: Ronnie Belliard, Guillermo Mota, Vicente Padilla, Will Ohman**

Others: Jim Thome, Brad Ausmus, Jason Schmidt, Mark Loretta, Juan Castro, Eric Milton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jeff Weaver

*Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts has done a great job of figuring out the Elias Rankings, and has posted them at MLB Trade Rumors. In order to receive compensation for Type A or Type B free agents, the club must offer them arbitration. Type A free agents net a first round pick from the team that signs them, provided the pick isn't in the top 15, in addition to a supplemental pick in between the first and second rounds.

If a team signs more than one Type A free agent, the players are ranked by their Elias ranking, they give up picks in the lower rounds as well. For instance, the Yankees last year gave up their first three picks for signing C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett, all Type A free agents. Type B free agents net only a supplemental pick.

There is always the risk that a player will accept arbitration (like Darren Oliver did with the Angels last season). If he does, the maximum salary cut a player can take is 20%, so for Guillermo Mota, for instance, the least he would make in arbitration in 2010 would be $1.88 million (80% of his $2.35 million 2009 salary). In the case of Hudson and Wolf, they had low base salaries so this isn't an issue, but there is still quite a risk because they are still likely to command a high salary in arbitration.

**I'm counting Will Ohman in this exercise, even though he is no longer on the 40-man since his option was bought out last week, but the Dodgers, however unlikely, can still offer Ohman arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Offer arbitration to Hudson, Wolf, and Belliard only

Options (2)

Manny Ramirez has a $20 million player option for 2010. He has until November 10 to accept or decline this option.
Jon Garland has a $10 million mutual option for 2010. If the Dodgers decline, his buyout is $2.5 million; if Garland declines, his buyout is $1 million. As a condition of Garland's acquisition, the Diamondbacks will pay either buyout if the option is not exercised. Even if either side opts out, Garland is a Type B free agent, and the Dodgers could offer him arbitration if they so choose.

What should happen: Manny comes back, Dodgers let Arizona pay Garland $2.5m to walk away, don't offer Garland arbitration

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
George Sherrill	4.147	$2,750,000
Jonathan Broxton	4.020	$1,825,000
Andre Ethier	3.153	$3,100,000
Russell Martin	3.150	$3,900,000
Hong-Chih Kuo	3.114	$437,000
Chad Billingsley	3.110	$475,000
Matt Kemp	3.049	$467,000
James Loney	3.012	$465,000
Jason Repko	3.067	$500,000

Look for: Repko to get non-tendered

Under Contract (4)

Player	2009 Salary	2010 Salary
Rafael Furcal	$10,500,000	$8,500,000
Juan Pierre	$10,000,000	$10,000,000
Casey Blake	$5,250,000	$6,000,000
Hiroki Kuroda	$10,000,000	$13,000,000

Under Team Control (15)

Player	Service Time	2009 Base Salary
Ramon Troncoso	1.119	$401,000
Clayton Kershaw	1.105	$404,000
Cory Wade	1.096	$402,500
Eric Stults	1.072	$402,000
Blake DeWitt	1.048	$405,000
James McDonald	1.004	$400,750
Ronald Belisario	1.000	$400,000
Chin-Lung Hu	0.153	$401,000
Xavier Paul	0.151	$400,000
Charlie Haeger	0.125	$400,000
Scott Elbert	0.097	$400,000
Brent Leach	0.090	$400,000
A.J. Ellis	0.081	$400,000
Travis Schlichting	0.055	$400,000
Lucas May	0.000	------

Here are some important dates to remember for the offseason:

Day After World Series Ends: begins 15-day period for eligible players to file for free agency

November 20: Date reserve lists must be set (adding players to 40-man roster for purposes of Rule 5 draft)

December 1: Last date to offer arbitration to free agents to receive compensation

December 10: Rule 5 draft

December 12: Deadline to tender contracts to players under team control or pre-free agency arbitration-eligible players

It will be a long offseason, but the hot stove is always interesting.

Rollins Thunder: Phillies 5, Dodgers 4

dajafi — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:28:10 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Jimmy Rollins congratulated Ryan Howard after the Big Piece mashed a first-inning home run. Not quite four hours later, he'd have a turn as the hero. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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With one picture-perfect swing on a Jonathan Broxton fastball, Jimmy Rollins put 8 2/3 innings of frustration for his team--and the better part of a full season for himself--in the rear-view mirror. Rollins' two-out, two-on double to the gap scored Eric Bruntlett and Carlos Ruiz with the tying and winning runs as the Phillies took a walkoff thriller against the Dodgers in Game Four of the NLCS and claimed a three games to one series lead.

Rollins threw the last knockout punch in a night of haymakers. Ryan Howard got things started in the bottom of the first against former teammate Randy Wolf, who had allowed just one home run to lefty hitters all season. Now he's allowed one in the playoffs: with Rollins on first, Howard tattooed a 3-1 fastball into the right-field seats to put the Phillies ahead 2-0. But Wolf settled in after that, retiring ten in a row and not surrendering another hit until the sixth.

Joe Blanton started strong as well, retiring the first ten Dodger hitters he faced. But with one out in the fourth, he walked Matt Kemp to give Los Angeles its first base runner. Andre Ethier followed with a deep flyout to dead center, but Manny Ramirez singled to put runners at the corners. James Loney did the same to cut the lead in half, and after a walk to Ronnie Belliard, Russell Martin singled to tie it. An inning later, Kemp came up with two outs and blasted a home run to center, over Shane Victorino climbing the wall. In the sixth, the Dodgers added another run as Ramirez reached on a Pedro Feliz error, Belliard moved him to second on a bloop single and Casey Blake, previously 1 for 25 in his career off Blanton, took a low pitch the opposite way for a single and a 4-2 advantage.

The Phils drew closer in the bottom of the sixth. Victorino tripled with one out, and Utley pulled a Wolf fastball into right for a single. After Howard walked, Joe Torre pulled Wolf for Ronald Belisario, who sawed off Jayson Werth for what looked like a 5-4-3 double-play ball before Belliard dropped it on the transfer; the Dodgers were awarded an out. Belisario then gave way to Hong-Chi Kuo. Raul Ibanez greeted him with a sinking liner to left--that Ramirez, of all people, caught just about the grass to preserve LA's lead.

Chan Ho Park and Ryan Madson kept the Dodgers off the scoreboard for the next two innings. In the bottom of the eighth, the Phillies got two on with one out against George Sherrill, who hit Victorino with a pitch and walked Utley. But he recovered to strike out Howard for the second out. Broxton came in for Werth, flirting with triple digits on the fastball; after a six-pitch at-bat, he got Werth to fly out to right.

Scott Eyre started the ninth, but gave way to Brad Lidge with Rafael Furcal on first and one out. Lidge, showing perhaps his best stuff of the postseason, struck out both Kemp and Ethier, stranding what would have been a huge insurance run.

Broxton came back out after sitting through the long top of the ninth. He got Ibanez to ground out, but facing Matt Stairs--the man who beat him with a majestic two-run bomb to win Game Four of last year's NLCS--he issued a quick walk. Broxton's first pitch to Carlos Ruiz hit him, pushing Bruntlett, pinch-running for Stairs, into scoring position. Greg Dobbs, pinch-hitting for Lidge, lined softly to third.

That brought up Rollins, and the sort of indelibly wonderful moment that explains why so many of us are willing to sit through so many of the other kind.

After an off-day tomorrow, the Phils send Cole Hamels to the mound for Game Five, hoping he'll send them back to the World Series.

Dodgers Division Series In Review

Eric Stephen — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 23:06:37 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Celebration is a wonderful thing

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It was a series pitting two closely matched teams against one another. In a close and short series, taking advantage of opportunities is usually the key, and the Dodgers were able to do that, sweeping away the Cardinals in three games.

The Dodgers faced the tall task of facing Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, who will both likely finish in the top three in NL Cy Young voting, in the first two games, but the Dodgers won them both, the second in improbable fashion with an unlikely ninth-inning comeback.

The Dodgers capitalized on nearly every opportunity, but the Cardinals did not, finishing with four hits in 30 at-bats with runners in scoring position in the series. The Dodger bullpen was an asset, as expected, and the Dodger starters got progressively better in each game.

The Dodgers who lost playoff series to the Cardinals in both 1985 and 2004, plus a regular-season playoff in 1946, were able to exact some measure of revenge with a 3-0 sweep. That the team with the best record in the league and best run differential in baseball won this series was not surprising, but the sweep was an unexpected and sweet result.

Dodger Batter of the Series: Andre Ethier managed to hit just one single in three games, yet still hit .500 for the series. He slammed two home runs, a pair of doubles, and a triple, and fell just a single shy of the cycle in the clinching victory Saturday.

Dodger Pitcher of the Series: This one was an easy call, as Vicente Padilla made his mark in Dodger history with seven scoreless innings in the closeout win in Game 3. Padilla's game was just the eighth in Dodger postseason history with seven or more scoreless innings allowing four hits or fewer.

Series Record: 3-0
13 runs scored (4.33 per game)
6 runs allowed (2.00 per game)
.805 pythagorean winning percentage

Overall Seasonal Record: 98-67 (.594)
793 runs scored (4.81 per game)
617 runs allowed (3.74 per game)
.613 pythagorean winning percentage (101-64)

Game 1 Key Moments

In the top of the first inning, the Cardinals got the first three men on base, the last via intentional walk to Albert Pujols. Looking at the run expectancy matrix from Baseball Prospectus, the Cardinals would be expected to score 2.28 runs in the inning, and probably more with Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick, and Yadier Molina coming up. However, the Cardinals scored just one run, and that was on a botched pop fly by Ronnie Belliard behind second base. After a very long top of the inning, the Dodgers immediately answered. A Rafael Furcal single was followed by a Matt Kemp laser beam home run to center, and the Dodgers never looked back.
Randy Wolf was ineffective, and couldn't get out of the fourth inning. Jeff Weaver entered with two outs and the bases loaded, and pulled his Weaver magic yet again, getting Ryan Ludwick to ground back to the box to end the inning with the 3-2 lead preserved. In the regular season, opposing batters had just one hit in 20 at-bats against Weaver with the sacks jacked.

Game 2 Key Moments

Adam Wainwright pitched a great game in Game Two, and was cruising early, retiring the first 11 Dodgers. That is, until Ethier took him deep to tie the game at one.
With the game tied at one in the sixth inning, Joe Torre let Clayton Kershaw bat with one out. Kershaw was at 97 pitches, and although Kershaw has earned the right to be set free from his pitch count shackles at this point in the season, the Dodger bullpen is too strong not to utilize. Any advantage of Kershaw pitching over Ronald Belisario or Ramon Troncoso is greatly outweighed by the gain in having a real hitter at the plate in place of Kershaw. After grounding out in the sixth, Kershaw allowed the go-ahead run in the seventh.
On the Colby Rasmus RBI double, with nobody out, James Loney alertly cutoff the throw in the infield and nailed Rasmus at third base with one out, helping limit the Cardinals to one run in the inning.
Down one in the eighth inning, Torre used his best reliever, Jonathan Broxton, to face the all-righty heart of the lineup of Pujols, Holliday, and Ludwick. Broxton retired all three, not allowing a ball hit out of the infield, to keep the Dodgers close.
With two outs down 2-1 in the ninth, James Loney lofted an easy game-ending soft liner to left, only to have Matt Holliday misplay it, the ball hitting off his groin as Loney ended up at second base. While that play would have certainly ended the game, it's important to note the Cardinals still had an 86.7% win expectancy after the misplay.
Casey Blake drew a nine-pitch walk, leading to a game-tying single by Ronnie Belliard, who has supplanted Orlando Hudson as the regular second baseman.
After a walk to Russell Martin, Mark Loretta came through with the biggest hit of his career, ending a six-for-46 pinch hitting drought with a walk-off single, the Dodgers' 13th walk-off win of the season.

Game 3 Key Moments

The Cardinals again loaded the bases in the first inning, this time with two outs, but Vicente Padilla ended the only real scoring threat against him by inducing an inning-ending groundout by Yadier Molina.
Holding a 1-0 advantage in the third inning, Andre Ethier provided some breathing room for the Dodgers with a bomb to right field, a two-run home run to extend the lead to 3-0.
Jonathan Broxton struck out Rick Ankiel, finishing the series with a 101-mph fastball to end the Cardinals season.

Not Gonna Beat Us: The first three times Albert Pujols came to the plate with a runner in scoring position, Joe Torre decided to intentionally walk the best player in the game. Pujols was limited to one run batted in during the series, and that came with the Cardinals down five runs in the eighth inning of Game 3.

Run Record: Andre Ethier scored five runs in the series, tying the Dodger record for a division series. Manny Ramirez had five runs scored last year against the Cubs. Ethier did set the Dodger record for most extra-base hits in a division series, with five.

A Slight Concern: Matt Kemp hit his first career playoff home run in his first at-bat of the series in Game 1. However, after that, Kemp had just one hit in 13 at-bats, and had eight strikeouts.

Along For The Ride: The home opener this season had two stars -- well, three including Vin Scully -- Chad Billingsley, with his 11 strikeouts over seven innings, and Orlando Hudson, with the second cycle in LA Dodger history. Both made the National League All-Star team this year. Yet, their contribution this series was almost nil. Billingsley, who was scheduled to pitch a fourth game if needed, didn't pitch an inning, and Hudson didn't get a plate appearance, although he was used as a defensive replacement or pinch runner in all three games.

Game By Game Results:

Next Series: The Dodgers open the NLCS Thursday at Dodger Stadium, against either the Rockies or Phillies.

NLDS Stats

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB/CS	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	BABIP
Ethier	12	5	6	2	1	2	3	1	0/0	.500/.571/1.333	1.905	.500
Furcal	12	2	6	0	1	0	2	1	0/0	.500/.500/.667	1.167	.500
Manny	13	0	4	3	0	0	2	1	0/0	.308/.357/.538	.896	.364
Blake	11	1	3	0	0	0	1	2	0/0	.273/.385/.273	.657	.300
Belliard	11	2	3	0	0	0	1	2	0/0	.273/.385/.273	.657	.500
Loney	12	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0/0	.250/.308/.250	.558	.273
Kemp	14	2	2	0	0	1	2	0	0/0	.143/.143/.357	.500	.200
Martin	9	0	1	0	0	0	1	3	0/0	.111/.385/.111	.496	.125
Starters	94	12	28	5	2	3	12	11	0/0	.298/.380/.489	.869	.352
Loretta	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0/0	1.000/1.000/1.000	2.000	1.000
Thome	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.333/.000	.333	.000
Hudson	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	-----/-----/-----	-----	-----
Pierre	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	-----/-----/-----	-----	-----
Bench	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0/0	.333/.500/.333	.833	.500
Pitchers	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.000/.000	.000	.000
Totals	105	13	29	5	2	3	13	11	0/0	.276/.358/.448	.806	.329

Pitcher	G	W-L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Padilla	1	1-0	--	7.0	4	0	0	1	4	0.00	0.714	2.44
Kershaw	1	0-0	--	6.2	9	2	2	1	4	2.70	1.500	3.90
Wolf	1	0-0	--	3.2	6	2	2	5	2	4.91	3.000	5.33
Starters	3	1-0	--	17.1	19	4	4	7	10	2.08	1.500	3.61
Kuo	1	0-0	--	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	0.00	2.000	-0.85
Broxton	3	0-0	1	3.2	4	1	1	0	4	2.45	1.091	0.97
Weaver	1	1-0	--	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.750	1.65
Belisario	2	0-0	--	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.000	3.15
Sherrill	3	1-0	--	2.1	1	1	1	1	0	3.86	0.857	5.72
Relievers	3	2-0	1	9.2	8	2	2	1	7	1.86	0.931	2.32
Totals	3	3-0	1	27.0	27	6	6	8	17	2.00	1.296	3.15

No Rest, No Problem For Dodger Relievers

Eric Stephen — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 18:55:35 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Going to the bullpen is a welcome sight in Los Angeles.

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Last night, the Dodgers were able to utilize their top four relievers to close out the game. It wasn't the conventional way of course, as Randy Wolf was pulled in the fourth inning, but the Dodgers have to be happy any time they have a lead after five or six innings and can turn the game over to their bullpen. The site of Ronald Belisario, Hong-Chih Kuo, George Sherrill, and Jonathan Broxton usually means curtains for the other team.

In a perfect world, the Dodgers will get to use those same relievers tonight, perhaps adding a pinch of Ramon Troncoso to the winning recipe. Here's a look at how these relievers did with zero games rest on the season:

	With 0 Days Rest					With Rest
Pitcher	G	ERA	BB/9	K/9	BA/OBP/SLG	G	ERA	BB/9	K/9	BA/OBP/SLG
Broxton	26	1.71	2.73	11.96	.151/.216/.172	47	3.08	3.81	14.32	.172/.263/.264
Sherrill*	21	3.32	4.26	10.42	.200/.291/.286	51	1.08	2.70	7.02	.212/.277/.315
Kuo	3	7.71	11.42	15.43	.250/.455/.625	32	2.60	3.25	9.11	.194/.282/.276
Belisario	19	0.96	3.86	6.75	.206/.316/.279	50	2.42	3.63	8.65	.199/.286/.288

*I used Sherrill's numbers for the entire season, including his time in Baltimore.

There's really not a huge difference either way for Broxton, Sherrill, and Belisario, who have been used on back-to-back days quite often this season. The outlier is Kuo, who was only used three times in such situations all season, an understandable strategy given his injury history. Kuo was ineffective in one of his three outings, giving up a couple runs to Atlanta, a game in which he allowed his only home run since returning from the disabled list in late July. Aside from the small sample size, don't be alarmed by the high walk rate with no rest for Kuo; two of his three walks were intentionally issued to Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday to set up one of the most thrilling strikeouts of the season, the "I want Parkman" moment, if you will.

Since it's the playoffs, I would guess Kuo is available again today, if needed, although Ramon Troncoso might be added to the mix as well. Then again, Clayton Kershaw could shorten the game all by himself. But should the Dodgers need to go to the bullpen again today, fear not.

**********

Here are the lineups. The only change for either team is Julio Lugo starting at 2B instead of Skip Schumaker.

Cardinals		Dodgers
2B	Lugo	SS	Furcal
SS	Ryan	CF	Kemp
1B	Pujols	RF	Ethier
LF	Holliday	LF	Manny
RF	Ludwick	1B	Loney
C	Molina	3B	Blake
3B	DeRosa	2B	Belliard
CF	Rasmus	C	Martin
P	Wainwright	P	Kershaw

SB Nation - Ronald Belisario

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2010 CHONE Projections: Pitching

Starters

Bullpen

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Pirates Face 40-Man Roster Decisions This Week

Ethier Wins "Clutch Performer Of The Year" Award

A Look Toward 2010: The Pitching

Starters

Bullpen

Dodger Roster Breakdown

Free Agents (13+1)

Options (2)

Arbitration Eligible (9)

Under Contract (4)

Under Team Control (15)

Rollins Thunder: Phillies 5, Dodgers 4

Dodgers Division Series In Review

NLDS Stats

No Rest, No Problem For Dodger Relievers