SB Nation - Evan Meek

Fantasy Baseball: Profiling Yesterday's Non-Tenders

raygu — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the ninth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh won the game 3-1. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Yesterday was the last day that teams could offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players, and there were some interesting non-tenders for sure. Let's take a look:

Matt Capp, CL, PITT

The Pirates will now go into spring training looking for a closer, unless they veer off course and sign a free agent like Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, or Kevin Gregg. They also could dangle Andy Laroche in a deal for a closer since they traded for Akinori Iwamura to play second base. That assumes that Pedro Alvarez wins the Pirates 3B job out of spring training, otherwise Laroche will be the Pirates 3Bman. Here is what MLB.com said about the Pirates closer situation:

In the meantime, the Pirates now have even more work to do to construct a bullpen that had already lost Jesse Chavez in an offseason trade. One thing the Pirates do seem confident in, though, is that their next closer could come in-house, as both Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek are likely to garner consideration for the role.

I don't see either Hanrahan or Meek keeping the job. Capps Is coming off his worst year of his career as he ended the year with a 5.80 ERA. Could the Phillies take a chance on Capps to backup Lidge?

Jonny Gomes, OF, CIN

Gomes is coming off a season where he went 20-51-.267-.338-.541-.879. Gomes could be a nice pickup for a team that wants to platoon his vs. left-handed pitchers as he hit .307-.369-.545-.914 against lefties in 2009. In his career, Gomes has hit .274-.369-.517-.885 vs lefties.

it appears the Reds will go into spring training with an open competition in LF with Wladimir Balentein, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier vying for the spot.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, ATL

Johnson is coming off a down year where he lost the second base job to Martin Prado in Atlanta. He went 8-29-7-.229-.303-.389-.692 in 2009 after going 12-69-11-.287-.349-.446-.795 in 2008. Johnson's BABIP in 2009 was a very low .247, much lower than his career BABIP average of .311. There were some positives in his 2009 season, as he lowered his K% from 18.4% to 15.6% and increased his BB% from 8.5% to 9.3%.

Johnson could be a nice sleeper in 2009 should he land a second base job. If he can bring his BABIP close to .300 and continue to show improved plate discipline, he could have another season like he did in 2008. Do you hear me Ned?

Poll

Which player has a better chance at landing a starting job in 2010?

Ryan Doumit an option in Toronto?

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:42:08 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

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The Pirates reportedly are very willing to move catcher Ryan Doumit, FOXSports.com is reporting. Doumit had a breakout year in 2009 hitting .318 with 15 home runs, but battled injuries in 2009 to hit only .250 in 75 games.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ryan Doumit	75	280	31	70	16	0	10	38	20	49	4	0	.250	.299	.414

Doumit will make 3.5 million dollars in 2010 and 5.1 million in 2011, pretty reasonable if he can return to 2008 form.

The Blue Jays could re-sign Rod Barajas as a one year stop gap for catching prospect J.P. Arenciba; however, Arenciba hit .236 with 21 home runs and struck out 114 times to just 26 walks, and needs more seasoning before being expected to play everyday in Toronto. Realistically, he won't be ready to take over until the middle of 2011 or the start of 2012.

Bringing in Doumit to play catcher would be a good stop gap and could provide the Blue Jays with a big bat at a relatively cheap cost. And if Arenciba proves to be ready sooner than expected, then Doumit could be moved to first base or the outfield.

What would it cost the Blue Jays for Doumit? Doumit has only had one season in which he played over 100 games, so the Pirates can't demand too much in return.

The Pirates' bullpen is pretty weak, even if you include injured pitchers Evan Meek and Jose Ascanio in the bullpen. The Blue Jays' bullpen is relatively young and deep, meaning moving one of them in a trade likely wouldn't hurt in the long run.

If the Jays offered Jesse Carlson, they might be able to land the catcher.

At least it's a start.

Pirates Face 40-Man Roster Decisions This Week

Charlie — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 02:00:54 -0000

40-man rosters have to be set by Friday, so expect some fun stuff to happen this week.

The Bucs currently have 36 players on their 40-man roster. That doesn't include Jose Ascanio and Evan Meek, who will both need to be protected by Friday. The Pirates will also have to decide whether to include a number of minor leaguers, any of whom could be selected in the Rule 5 draft in December if they aren't protected:

Brad Lincoln, Gorkys Hernandez, Bryan Morris, Ramon Aguero, Casey Erickson, Michael Dubee, Shelby Ford, Jim Negrych, Kris Watts

Of these, I'd say Lincoln and Hernandez are no-brainers.

Morris is a tricky case; scouts like him a lot and the Pirates certainly paid a pretty penny to get him, but the performance record so far hasn't been there, and it's very hard to see how he could stick on another team's 25-man roster for the entire year.

WTM is a big fan of Aguero, a reliever who spent time with West Virginia, Lynchburg and Altoona last year. Aguero had a nice season in 2009 and has followed that up with a good showing in the Dominican Winter League, but I'm agnostic here. He's almost 25, so he's not a great prospect. Every year the Pirates protect these sorts of marginal pitchers, mostly relievers--Jeff Sues, Dave Davidson, Romulo Sanchez, Luis Munoz, Olivo Astacio, Ronald Belisario, and so on--and never do they seem to get anything out of them. (Ok, Astacio was released because of behavioral issues, and Belisario blossomed with the Dodgers, but still.) The problem with Aguero is that he'd be easier than Morris to hide on a big-league roster for a year, and because he played well this year and has good stuff, there would be reason for a team who selected him to hope he wouldn't end up hurting them too badly. I'd probably protect him, but I don't think we should expect much from him in the long haul.

The other guys, though at least vaguely intriguing, can probably be left off. Erickson is too far from the majors, Dubee doesn't have great stuff, and Ford and Negrych haven't shown enough in the minors. (Negrych might have some vague chance of being taken in the Rule 5 and used as a bench bat.) Watts is only a nominal prospect because he's a catcher.

So let's say three spots will be needed for Lincoln, Hernandez and Aguero, and possibly a fourth for Morris. The Pirates would probably also prefer to leave one spot for their own Rule 5 pick, although they can also dump someone later to make room.

All this means that probably a couple of players will be dumped from the roster this week. Of those, Sues, Anthony Claggett, Justin Thomas, Brian Bixler, and Luis Cruz would all be potential candidates.

Pirates Dump Denny Bautista, Craig Hansen, Chris Bootcheck

Charlie — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 21:22:23 -0000

They're all off the 40-man.

Sorry there's no picture for this post; the only photos that come up in SB Nation's widget when you search for these players' names are shots of hitters homering off them.

Bautista and Bootcheck are no surprise. The big news here is the removal of Hansen, who was one of four players acquired in the Jason Bay deal. Hansen has a nerve disorder that could take years to heal, which is bad enough, but there's also the fact that he was hardly a reliably great pitcher even before that was diagnosed. Perhaps he'll wind up back in the Pirates' minor league system, but they were probably wise to take him off the roster.

These moves should allow the Pirates to move Jose Ascanio and Evan Meek from the 60-day DL back to the 40-man roster. (Hansen was already on the 60-day DL and was not occupying a roster spot; the same is true for Tyler Yates, though I can't imagine he'll be protected.)

Pirates.com: Donnie Veal's Disabled List Placements Were Bogus

Charlie — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 04:34:03 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Donnie Veal throws against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the fifth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Friday, Sept. 25, 2009. The Pirates won 3-1, with Veal pitching two scoreless innings to get his first major league win. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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A pretty hilarious note from the mothership. Emphasis mine:

[Donald] Veal made only six appearances before the All-Star break and was twice put on the disabled list so the Pirates could take advantage of sending him to the Minors for rehab work.

Silly me, I thought the disabled list was for players who were hurt. Neal Huntington himself actually admitted in early June that his decision to place Veal on the DL for a "groin strain" was "an aggressive placement." Dejan Kovacevic of the Post-Gazette has called Veal's DL assignments "dubious." And now we have Jen Langosch claiming that Veal's DL stints were straight-up fraudulent. Well, she doesn't say that exactly, but she does say that injury isn't the reason he went on the DL.

I wrote about the Rule 5 draft at length in early 2008 and it's kind of a pet peeve of mine, so I'd encourage you to check that article out. Some background here, though: basically, Rule 5 picks like Veal are required to stay on their new teams' major league rosters the entire year. The only exception occurs when a player goes on the DL, after which he is allowed to "rehab" for several weeks in the minors.

I'm not blaming Huntington or the Pirates for any of this. They are simply trying to do their best with the tools available to them, and since other teams also use fake DL trips to protect Rule 5 picks, the Pirates should do it too. But the fact that there is any need for these phantom DL stints to take place proves that the system is broken. At least as I understand it, the Rule 5 draft is intended to prevent teams from hoarding major-league-ready talent in the minors. The Rule 5 draft should redistribute that talent to teams who don't have as much talent in the majors; that's why teams are required to keep Rule 5 picks on their roster the entire year.

In practice, though, teams often don't use Rule 5 picks on players who are genuinely ready, which means they essentially have to hide the player for the entire season. The fake rehabs are one way of doing that, but teams are also required to keep the player on their active roster for 90 days. If they don't, they have to keep him on their active roster the next year until 90 total days have been reached.

The idea of hiding a player on the bench, in the bullpen or in the minors is antithetical to the spirit of the Rule 5 draft, which is supposed to put the best possible players on the field by preventing talent-rich teams from stockpiling too many talented, mature players. Veal himself might be happy as a Rule 5 draftee--I'm sure he got paid a lot more this year than he did in the minors--but for the game of baseball, his experience has been a perverse failure in two ways.

1) It has forced the Pirates to allow Veal, who plainly was not ready to pitch in the big leagues this year, to pitch in the big leagues. He racked up a 7.16 ERA, walked more than a batter an inning, and just generally looked clueless outside of one awesome relief appearance against the Dodgers in late September.

2) It has prevented Veal from developing as a pitcher. This year, between the majors and the minors, Veal pitched 54 2/3 innings. (He'll pick up a few more frames in the Arizona Fall League.) In 2008, he pitched nearly three times that many. Veal plainly has talent, and he just as plainly has serious flaws. It's probably true that he got better quality coaching from Joe Kerrigan in the majors than he would have gotten in the Cubs' minor league system, but how much better can he reasonably be expected to get if he doesn't pitch?

So maybe Veal benefits here from getting paid, but only in a short-term, Pyrrhic-victory sort of way. If this season interrupted his development to the degree that it will end up preventing him from having a real major league career, then he loses. The Pirates benefit if Veal eventually learns to pitch better. But how does baseball benefit? This season was probably a net negative for Veal's development, and in the meantime the league had to put up with a guy pitching who blatantly shouldn't have been there. Veal pitching 16 innings wasn't a huge deal, but baseball still shouldn't want that to happen.

It's always cool when some obscure guy gets picked in the Rule 5 draft and immediately proves he belongs--Dan Uggla and Joakim Soria come to mind. But those cases are few and far between, and Veal's DL trips just prove the Pirates know what was obvious to the rest of us: that Veal wasn't ready for the majors. Which is dumb, and which isn't the sort of situation the Rule 5 draft is supposed to create. Veal's case was, as far as I can tell, the worst of the 2009 Rule 5 shenanigans. But then again, the only player in it who did much more than just get by was shortstop Everth Cabrera, who hit .255/.342/.361 and ran like the wind for the Padres. And this is the second straight year the Pirates have had a Rule 5'er rotting in their bullpen--last year it was Evan Meek, who was actually allowed into some high-leverage situations before a trade with Tampa effectively removed him from the Rule 5 process.

Some possible solutions:

1) Make the 40-man rosters a bit smaller, say 38 players or so. This would widen the pool of genuinely ready players available in the draft. Unfortunately, I don't think the union would ever go for this.

2) Currently, a team must pay $50,000 to the old team to select its player, and if the player doesn't cut it, he can eventually be offered back to the old team for $25,000. Raise that $50,000 to an amount that wouldn't be completely trivial for a major league team--perhaps about $400,000. Then give $50,000 to the team from which the player is being selected and put the other $350,000 in the revenue sharing pool. (This last bit prevents poor teams from selling off players for cash.) This raises the penalty for getting a Rule 5 pick wrong, meaning flubbing a Rule 5 pick would no longer be the no-lose proposition for a team.

3) This is Azibuck's idea. Allow the new team to pick the player in December, then keep him in the minors until mid-June. After that, he has to stay on the 25-man the rest of the season, or be offered back.

4) Just do away with rehab assignments for Rule 5 players.

Pirates Win Fourth Straight, 5-2

Charlie — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 02:07:58 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

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When you compare the Bucs' active roster to the Reds', it's actually not unreasonable to think the Pirates might keep winning, especially against a starter like Micah Owings, who seems destined to be famed more for his hitting than his pitching. Garrett Jones contributed a homer to right that finally occurred with two men on; nearly all of Jones' previous homers had been solo shots, which I don't think is anything we should gnash our teeth over, but it's got to be nice for him to hit a three-run bomb for once. Also, Lastings Milledge hit his second homer as a Pirate, Andrew McCutchen had one of his patented fly-like-Superman triples, and Delwyn Young played pretty good defense at the keystone. Also, Charlie Morton came back to the surface after his disastrous last start and didn't get the bends. Nice game, and now the Pirates can jump to fifth place with a win tomorrow.

No disrespect to the '79 team, which will always have a place in my heart for being the Bucs' last championship squad and for winning the title in the very week I was born, but I've never liked pillbox hats, which make people's heads look funny. (See the Morton picture to your right, which I swear isn't photoshopped.) I'd gladly exchange some funny-looking heads for some more games like this, though.

One quick note: Evan Meek's season is over after moving to the 60-day DL to make room for Phil Dumatrait on the 40-man roster.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 14:58:38 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Alcides Escobar talks with Willie Randolph during the first inning Wednesday.

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Some things to read while searching for a signature sign-off.

So, yesterday morning I skipped out early for an appointment, got back home, ate some breakfast, mowed the lawn, then sat down at my coffee table to check the comments on the Mug and discovered what might have been the biggest news day of the season, as the Brewers demoted J.J. Hardy to AAA, promoted Alcides Escobar, fired Billy Castro, designated Bill Hall for assignment and called up Jason Bourgeois. Adam McCalvy has reactions from the clubhouse, and here are several more reactions from around the web:

J.J. Hardy has until Friday to join the Sounds, and says he's looking forward to a few days off.
Brewed Sports was not pleased with that response.
Brewer Paradise Lost is one of many who suspects this move might have been made to prevent Hardy from becoming a free agent following the 2010 season. Hardy would have to remain in the minors past September 1 for the demotion to count against his service time, and it seems unlikely the Brewers will leave him there once rosters expand.
R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs isn't sure the Escobar-for-Hardy swap helps the Brewers this season, or helps Hardy's trade value down the road.
Meanwhile, Cash Kruth caught up with Bill Hall, who seemed upbeat about his situation and expects to be on a team again soon. With that said, this is the same guy who still thought he was the best third baseman in baseball a few weeks ago.
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that at least one NL team is interested in trading for Hall.
Cincinnati Reds Blog sees the Hall situation as "a big opportunity for the Reds to pick up a talented player."
Billy Castro, who had been with the Brewers as a coach for nearly 18 years, left with no regrets. He may not get another chance to be a pitching coach, but it sounds like he'll always have a spot in the Brewer organization, if he wants it.
A Girl's View of the Brewers wonders if these moves will be enough to get the Brewers back on track.
Big League Stew accused the Brewers of waving the white flag on the 2009 season.
PocketDoppler says the Brewers are pushing the panic button.
Aaron Gleeman of Circling the Bases says the move likely came too late for the Brewers' playoff hopes.
Keep Turning Up the Heat says "these are some dark times in the Brewers organization," and doesn't agree with the decision to call up Escobar or fire Castro.
Quevedo at the Buffet doesn't get the timing or the logic behind the moves.
The Bucky Channel wonders why Alcides Escobar was only used sparingly and Jason Bourgeois wasn't used at all last night.

Meanwhile, the Brewers did actually play a game last night, and lost their second straight to the Padres, dropping their playoff chances to 2.9%, the first time all season they've fallen below 3%.

Things could get worse today, as they play a day game against the Padres, who are sending Cesar Carrillo to the mound to make his major league debut today. The Brewers are 0-4 this season in games where the opposing pitcher is making his debut. And, of course, they haven't been good in day games either, or in games played in June, July or August.

Doug Melvin may not be done dealing. The Brewers claimed Doug Davis off waivers from the D-Backs (h/t FanShot), giving the two teams 48 hours to work out a deal to bring him back to Milwaukee. Davis says it would be fun to return to Milwaukee, but Tom H. says it's unlikely to happen.

A bunch of news got lost in the shuffle with everything else that happened yesterday. Here are the important notes that got buried in today's game preview:

Both Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan are expected back before September 1.
Jesus Colome was available to pitch last night despite his bruised pinky finger.
Nick Green cleared waivers after being DFA'd and will remain in Huntsville.

One other minor league note to pass along today: Matt Hagen of The Hardball Times nominated Jeremy Jeffress for most disappointing minor leaguer in 2009.

On power rankings:

The Brewers jumped from 23rd to 20th in WhatifSports' rankings.
MLB FanHouse has the Brewers holding steady at 19.

Around baseball:

Angels: Released reliever Justin Speier.
Cardinals: Placed Todd Wellemeyer on the DL with elbow inflammation.
D-Backs: Placed Scott Schoeneweis on the DL with depression and released Tom Gordon.
Giants: Placed Rich Aurilia on the DL with ankle tendinitis.
Indians: Claimed R.J. Swindle off waivers from the Rays.
Mariners: Erik Bedard is expected to undergo shoulder surgery and miss the remainder of the season.
Marlins: Signed Esteban Yan to a minor league deal.
Pirates: Placed reliever Evan Meek on the DL with an oblique strain and claimed reliever John Meloan off waivers from the Rays.
Reds: Placed Scott Rolen on the DL with a concussion.
Royals: Acquired pitcher John Bannister from the Rangers.
Twins: Placed Glen Perkins on the DL with shoulder trouble and released Mark Grudzielanek.

By shuffling the deck in the bullpen a little bit this offseason the Brewers created some new problems, but at least they're done with this one: Reflections of Blue has had it with Guillermo Mota, who posted a 0.26 ERA over one 35.1 inning stretch and a 10.32 ERA since.

Here's something to ponder for all of you who want to make the case that J.J. Hardy should be moved to second or third base, Rickie Weeks should be moved to center field and Mat Gamel should play first base or right field: Will Carroll says a player playing out of position has a 30 percent greater chance of getting injured, based on unfamiliarity with the position.

Brian Anderson wants your help to raise money for the I Back Jack Foundation. Follow the link for more info on how you can help Jack Bartosz, a young man fighting neuroblastoma.

Speaking of causes that could use your money, UW-La Crosse, alma mater of former Brewers Jerry Augustine and Vinny Rottino, has raised enough money to keep the program alive for one more season, but is still on the chopping block.

On this day in 1987, Paul Molitor homered in the ninth to extend his hitting streak to 28 games, but the Brewers still lost to the Orioles, 5-4.

Happy birthday today to Corey Patterson, who turns 30, and former Milwaukee Brave Tony Cloninger, who turns 69.

Drink up.

Pirates Claim John Meloan

Charlie — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 22:35:42 -0000

The Pirates have claimed reliever John Meloan off waivers from the Rays and sent him to Indianapolis. Meloan came up with the Dodgers, who traded him to Cleveland as a throw-in in the Casey Blake deal. He then went to Tampa earlier this year in a minor trade. He racked up absurd strikeout totals in the low minors but struggled in the tough pitching environment of Las Vegas and hasn't been quite as interesting since. Between his high strikeout totals, high walk totals and ugly ERAs, he follows pretty closely in the tradition of Neal Huntington acquisitions like Denny Bautista and Tyler Yates (whose spot Meloan takes on the 40-man roster as Yates moves to the 60-day DL). But at least the risk here is limited.

The Bucs also sent Evan Meek on the DL to nurse his strained oblique and recalled Steven Jackson to take his place on the roster. They also signed Australian amateur pitcher Jarryd Sullivan, who I'm guessing will head to Bradenton or perhaps State College next year.

2009 Big-League Losses: Not a Good Way to Judge Rebuilding Efforts

Charlie — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 22:43:33 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

It's not Charlie Morton's fault the Pirates have played badly.

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I thought this bit from Dejan Kovacevic was interesting:

As noted in my Sunday piece, half of the 26 players acquired in Neal Huntington's many recent trades are on the current major league roster. That, obviously, is not all of them, and waiting for top-flight players such as Tim Alderson and Jose Tabata to arrive would be the fairest way to assess those. Still, 13 trade acquisitions is more than half the roster, which means the current roster will have to be something more than an unmitigated disaster for those trades, as a whole, to begin to look good.

Um, why? If the best players acquired in those trades are still in the minors, and if the major league roster has been pretty close to "an unmitigated disaster" for 17 years before the trades, and if most of the players Huntington acquired are young anyway, why should he be held to that standard?

Reading between the lines a little, I assume this line of thinking stems from the Pirates' play since the trades. I don't think Huntington should get a free pass by any stretch, and the Pirates' poor recent play disappoints me too. But it seems strange, in a week where we're getting very good news from the minors on a more or less daily basis, to focus too heavily on a handful of busted games at the major league level.

Of the thirteen Huntington trade acquisitions currently on the 25-man roster, more than half (Charlie Morton, Kevin Hart, Joel Hanrahan, Delwyn Young, Ross Ohlendorf, Ronny Cedeno, Evan Meek) have performed pretty well for the team, and others (Andy LaRoche, Jason Jaramillo, Jeff Karstens) have been at least serviceable. The only ones who have been outright disastrous by any stretch are Jose Ascanio (who's pitched all of two innings), Brandon Moss (for whom "disastrous" doesn't seem quite fair, given the quality of his defense), and Lastings Milledge. That's it.

Milledge has been a disappointment to me so far. And the Jason Bay trade continues to be a bad one. But to judge the guys who've been acquired in trades by the poor performance of the entire roster, when half the guys who were acquired aren't even on the roster and those who are on the roster aren't actually playing that badly, seems very strange to me. Let's take a more nuanced, long-term view, please.

Deadline acquisition Jeff Clement has posted a 1239 OPS for Indianapolis so far. Another recent trade acquisition, Jose Tabata, has a .922 OPS there in a small sample, despite only turning 21 this week. Last year's top pick, Pedro Alvarez, is tearing the cover off the ball at Altoona. Tim Alderson has pitched well in two starts there. Jeff Locke, acquired in the Nate McLouth deal, has pitched well in three straight starts for Lynchburg. New Lynchburg infielder Josh Harrison, acquired in the John Grabow deal, has hit well too, and Nathan Adcock, acquired from Seattle in the Jack Wilson deal, has had two good appearances there. Huntington acquisitions Tony Sanchez, Hunter Strickland, Brett Lorin, Robbie Grossman and Casey Erickson have all played well for West Virginia. The Bucs have spent millions in the past couple weeks on a number of talented high school pitchers. Today, two of them, Trent Stevenson and Zachary Fuesser, pitched four innings of shutout ball for Bradenton; it was Stevenson's pro debut.

My point is not that all these players will turn out to be good, or that things are all peaches and cream right now. My point is that, in a week where we've gotten so much good news from the minors and from a number of Huntington's trade acquisitions in particular, it seems like an extremely strange time to call out Huntington's trade acquisitions. The ones already in the bigs have actually, as a group, been decent, and the ones in the minors, along with a number of Huntington draftees, have played very well--better than I'd expected, in fact.

Losses at the big-league level stink. I hate them; we all hate them. But this has actually been a very good week in Pirates baseball, not a bad one. Blaming the new guys for the "unmitigated disaster" that the big-league team has recently been is silly, not only because they aren't primarily to blame but because most of the best ones aren't even there yet. And trying to "assess" the trades based on only a week or two of bad big-league play seems sillier still.

Personally, I prefer to evaluate trades based on the information available when they were made, since the futures of baseball players are inherently unpredictable and all you can do, as a GM, is to position yourself so that you're likely to be on the crest of the wave rather than being smashed by it. But if we're going to evaluate trades based on the results, and only at the big-league level, well jeez, shouldn't we wait a little while for those to come in? Kovacevic notes that "waiting for top-flight players such as Tim Alderson and Jose Tabata to arrive would be the fairest way to assess" the trades. Well, no kidding. If we're going to assess the trades based on big-league results, waiting for the best players to actually play in the big leagues would, in fact, be the only fair way to assess them.

Phillies vs. Pirates: July 10-12

Matt Swartz — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 16:00:55 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

The high-riding Phillies will finish up their homestand this week against the Pirates before the All-Star break. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr.)

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The Phillies (45-38) look to continue their winning home stand against the Pirates (38-47) this weekend at Citizens Bank Park before all but four of them will take a nice relaxing All-Star Break. Just a week ago, the Phillies were only two games over .500 and only barely in first in the NL East. Now, they have swept the rival Mets and taken three of four from the Reds, and they come into this series with a two-game lead over the Marlins who refuse to be as bad as sabermetricians tell them they are, a solid five game lead over the Braves, and a lead over the Mets that has grown from one game to five and a half in just a week. The Pirates were still hanging around a couple weeks ago, but have lost eight of eleven and are now in last place and are a full eight games out of first in the NL Central.

The Pirates are in a slow rebuilding process. Neil Huntington took the helm at GM just a year and a half ago and is transforming the Pirates into a younger better team. Huntington is what they call a "new school" GM, and has utilized sabermetrics in trying to rebuild the Pirates. While they have shown some signs of improvement, they are still not quite a good baseball team yet. They have a lot of young talent, and should become more dangerous in the next few years.

Their lineup is pretty right-handed but they do have a solid stream of hitters that they did not have a couple years ago. Each of the first six hitters has a decent chance of hitting a mistake out of the park, but none of them are perennial power hitters. The seventh hitter for the Pirates is our old friend, Jason Jaramillo, who the Phillies traded for Ronnie Paulino who they subsequently shipped to the Giants for Jack Taschner who they designated for assignment a couple days ago. The Pirates' bench is pretty weak, and there is not really anyone to be afraid of coming off the bench.

The Pirates' bullpen has been in flux throughout the year, constantly making me update my Pirates file on my computer for series previews. They do not have any lights out relievers at this point, though they do have a few guys who can get you out. The only lefty in the pen is John Grabow, who is primarily a fastball/changeup pitcher (though he occassionally throws his slider) and as a result does not have a deep platoon split. This should give the Phillies the opportunity to set up the lefties in their lineup the way that they would like without worrying about vulnerabilities to a late inning LOOGY.

Why does that matter? Because Raul Ibanez is back. He spent three weeks on the disabled list with a strained groin after cooling off from a red hot start. Reports are that he will be in the lineup tonight after doubling in his presumably final rehab start in the minors. Everyone should remember that we are getting Raul Ibanez back, and not necessarily the recincarnated Babe Ruth we had hitting in his uniform earlier this year. But he is still a very talented hitter that should make both the Phillies bench and lineup stronger in coming back.

Friday night's matchup will be Joe Blanton against Zach Duke. Blanton has baffled me this year by posting strikeout numbers that far exceeded his career averages without throwing any more swinging strikes, any more called strikes, or adding any new pitches to his repertoire. He just suddenly seemed to improve...unless you look at his ERA which has been terrible without the peripherals to justify a decline at all. Blanton shut down the Mets for seven and a third strong innings on Sunday to complete the sweep and lowered his ERA by a solid amount. Zach Duke is the only left handed starter the Phillies will face this weekend. He does have better numbers against lefties than righties, but not an extreme split that would be concerning. He was projected to have an ERA near 5 this year, but has managed a very solid 3.28 ERA. This ERA is pretty surprising considering he has the same low strikeout and walk numbers that he's always had, and has induced even fewer groundballs than before. His BABIP is .273, which is a little bit on the lucky side, but enough to drop someone's ERA nearly two full runs? That could explain maybe half a run or a run, but not the rest. The reason is primarily that he has pitched far better with runners on base than with bases empty. The end result is that he is putting guys on base and stranding them. His opponents' OPS is nearly .100 points lower with runners on, and with multiple runners on, it's even lower than that. This is something Kyle Kendrick showed us is not a persistent skill. In fact, Duke will probably regress a lot and end up with an ERA over 4 this year, in my opinion.

On Saturday night, the Phillies send Cole Hamels to the mound. Hamels had a lot of hype surrounding him going into this season, and the impression has been that he was not living up to it. That idea is belied by the fact that Hamels has been striking out more batters, walking fewer, and generating as many groundballs as last year. He has even generated the same number of infield flies. The only real difference is that he has seen a huge jump in his line drive singles and doubles and a huge decline in his outfield flyballs. That is not the kind of thing that just happens without changing back soon later-- it's not a persistent skill to generate 300 foot flyballs or avoid line drives. Specifically, his BABIP is .353. I proposed a theory a couple months ago that the lack of BABIP persistence for pitchers was not entirely based on BABIP being a matter of luck, but on hitters and pitchers adjusting to each other. I pointed out that if a hitter knew that an outside fastball was coming on every pitch, they would learn to just hit singles the opposite way and the pitcher would have a higher BABIP than .300. The thing is that pitcers just don't do that. They mix their pitches, akin to a mixed a strategy in game theory, and the result is that hitters try to guess right. When they do, they can make contact. If hitters can guess what's coming better, the pitcher will have a BABIP above .300 and the pitcher will adjust by the time any correlation would have showed up. The example that I like to give is that Kirk Gibson hit his famous homerun off Dennis Eckersley only because a scout told him that Eck always threw backdoor sliders to left handed power hitters on full counts. Gibson sat on it, made history. Guessing right leads to hitting the ball harder and any pitching coach worth his salt will notice this and make his pitchers adjust. Now, looking at Hamels BABIPs with one strike, I realized that they were very high and I wonder if Hamels hasn't been predictable regarding pitch selection on those pitches. Sure enough, after I formed this hypothesis, Hamels shut down the Reds allowing just three hits on 21 balls in play, and no hits on six balls in play with one strike. Hamels was able to get the second strike effectively against the Reds. Here's hoping he has adjusted.

The Pirates will counter with Ross Ohlendorf on Saturday evening. The right-hander has beaten projections of a mid-5's ERA with a 4.63 ERA thus far this year. This is despite the fact that he has struck out fewer batters than expected by a solid margin without improving in his walk or groundball rates. Ohlendorf has allowed fewer hits on balls in play to make up this difference. Ohlendorf performs far bettter against righties than lefties, and the Phillies will probably stack the lineup with lefties to try to score runs off him.

On Sunday, the Phillies will send J.A. Happ to the mound against Virgil Vasquez. Happ has been solid this year, though has been the beneficiary of good fortune himself. Vasquez was only called up to the majors a few starts ago by the Pirates after exhibiting excellent control in the minors.

MATCHUPS:
Friday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Zach Duke (L)
Saturday, 7:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Ross Ohlendorf (R)
Sunday, 1:35-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Virgil Vasquez (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

PIRATES

LINE UP

1) CF Andrew McCutchen (R): .291/.346/.440

projection average (proj): .265/.330/.380
projected BB/PA (bb): 9%
projected K/AB (k): 19%
career gb% (gb): 47%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 15% (2 of first 13 popups)
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 21% in first 19 groundballs in majors
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .305
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): patient hitter without a great eye, above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .955 vs .722 ops in minors; 1.1 vs 1.8 k/bb in minors
home/away (h/a): not enough info
pull/opposite (p/o): not enough info
anything else (other): none

2) 2B Freddy Sanchez (R): .316/.355/.477

proj: .290/.325/.410
bb: 5%
k: 11%
gb: 42%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .315, which is exactly where i have him
s/c/z: free swinger with above average contact and poor eye
r/l: .718 vs .896 ops; 2.8 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .775 vs .749 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

3) RF Delwyn Young (S): .315/.388/.403

proj: .270/.320/.430
bb: 7%
k: 22%
gb: 47%
iff: 18%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .320
s/c/z: poor eye, not very patient, below average contact
r/l: .761 vs .775 ops; 2.9 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .823 vs .717 ops; 2.6 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: none

4) 1B Adam LaRoche (L): .259/.345/.464

proj: .270/.340/.480
bb: 10%
k: 23%
gb: 39%
iff: 7%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .310; i have him at .301
s/c/z: good eye, pretty patient, average contact
r/l: .852 vs .752 ops; 1.9 vs 3.6 k/bb
h/a: .864 vs .800 ops; 2.3 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) LF Garrett Jones (L): .290/.333/.613

proj: .255/.310/.425
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 41% in minors
iff: 17% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a great eye, so-so patience, below average contact
r/l: .814 vs .690 ops in minor league career; 2.0 vs 5.2 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like a pull hitter
other: none

6) 3B Andy LaRoche (R): .269/.346/.487

proj: .245/.330/.400
bb: 11%
k: 17%
gb: 47%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .265
s/c/z: average eye, average patient, average contact
r/l: .661 vs .562 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .609 vs .661 ops; 2.2 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

7) C Jason Jaramillo (S): .255/.327/.389

proj: .250/.310/.360
bb: 8%
k: 19%
gb: 44%
iff: 18%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected around .295
s/c/z: decent eye, somewhat patient, decent contact
r/l: .681 vs .747 ops in minors; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

8) SS Jack Wilson (R): .270/.304/.403

proj: .270/.320/.375
bb: 6%
k: 11%
gb: 44%
iff: 14%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .295; i have him at .286
s/c/z: pretty good eye, pretty patient, good contact
r/l: .667 vs .753 ops; 2.7 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .712 vs .659 ops; 1.8 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Robinson Diaz (R): .295/.314/.375

proj: .275/.310/.380
bb: 3%
k: 9%
gb: 57% in minors
iff: 12% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: bad eye, not patient, good contact
r/l: .711 vs .731 ops in minors; 1.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Ramon Vazquez (L): .243/.351/.279

proj: .250/.330/.370
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 47%
iff: 5%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: good eye, patient, decent contact
r/l: .728 vs .500 ops; 1.8 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .689 vs .677 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Brandon Moss (L): .253/.305/.369

proj: .265/.325/.430
bb: 9%
k: 26%
gb: 45%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .330
s/c/z: decent eye but not patient, average contact
r/l: .708 vs .691 ops; 3.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .792 vs .620 ops; 2.2 vs 4.5 k/bb
p/o: somewhat extreme pull hitter
other: none

IF/OF Steve Pearce (R): .083/.214/.167 in 14 PA; .277/.363/.476 in 268 PA in AAa

proj: .270/.330/.450
bb: 7%
k: 19%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected around .300
s/c/z: okay eye, okay patience, below average contact
r/l: .634 vs .884 ops; 2.8 vs 5.0 k/bb (151 vs 55 PA)
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

OF Jeff Salazar (L): 0 for 3 in majors; .265/.325/.415 in 317 PA in AAA

proj: .250/.340/.380
bb: 11%
k: 20%
gb: 35%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .295
s/c/z: good eye, pretty patient, so-so contact
r/l: .727 vs .591 ops; only 22 PA vs LHP though
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Zach Duke (L): 3.28 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.19 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 57% fb, 19% ch, 18% cb, 7% sl, 0.1% ct
r/l: .811 vs .733 ops; 1.7 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .783 vs .812 ops; 2.2 vs 1.7 k/bb

Duke vs Phillies:

Utley: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 2/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Ross Ohlendorf (R): 4.63 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.74 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 66% fb, 20% sl, 14% ch, 0.5% cb
r/l: .691 vs .945 ops; 2.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .768 vs .861 ops; 1.8 vs 1.7 k/bb

Ohlendorf vs Phillies:

Bako: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Virgil Vasquez (R): 4.50 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.61 FIP, 44% GB in majors (18 IP), in 79.2 IP in AAA: 4.18 ERA, 1.1 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.12 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.20 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 40% in majors
pitches: 56% fb, 21% sl, 13% cb, 10% ch, 0.5% ct
r/l: pretty even in minors; hit a little harder by lefties in minors but similar k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Vazquez: has not played any Phillies

NOT FACING US: Paul Maholm (L): 4.60 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.53 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 53%
pitches: 54% fb, 14% sl, 17% ch, 15% cb
r/l: .801 vs .558 ops; 1.6 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .699 vs .818 ops; 1.9 vs 1.8 k/bb

Maholm vs Phillies:

Howard: 2/14, 1 BB, 5 K
Rollins: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 3/13, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 3/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 3/8, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 2/8, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 3/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 2/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US: Charlie Morton (R): 4.29 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 4.3 BB?9, 6.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 65% fb, 16% ch, 11% cb, 8% sl
r/l: .715 vs .925 ops; 1.1 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .887 vs .720 ops; 1.2 vs 1.1 k/bb

Morton vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1 BB

BULLPEN

CL: Matt Capps (R): 4.71 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.83 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 76% fb, 16% sl, 8% ch
r/l: .657 vs .702 ops; 5.4 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .652 vs .705 ops; 4.0 vs 4.2 k/bb

Capps vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jesse Chavez (R): 3.22 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.29 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 63% fb, 19% ch, 17% sl, 0.3% sf, 0.1% ct
r/l: .896 vs .547 ops; 2.7 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .570 vs .930 ops; 2.0 vs 2.0 k/bb

Chavez: has not faced any Phillies

John Grabow (L): 3.49 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.14 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 49% fb, 37% ch, 14% sl
r/l: .750 vs .720 ops; 1.5 vs 3.7 k/bb
h/a: .718 vs .763 ops; 2.1 vs 2.0 k/bb

Grabow vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Evan Meek (R): 2.76 ERA, 6.9 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERRA< 4.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 52%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ch, 12% ct, 11% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .903 vs 658 ops; 0.4 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .588 vs .982 ops; 0.8 vs 0.5 k/bb

Meek vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1 BB

Joel Hanrahan (R): 5.64 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.15 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Hanrahan vs Phillies:

Werth: 0/9, 4 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 2/11, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 2/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 0/8, 1 BB, 7 K
Ruiz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Coste: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Steven Jackson (R): 3.44 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.40 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 55% in minors
pitches: 60% fb, 17% sf, 17% sl, 6% ch
r/l: better against RHB in minors noticeably
h/a: not enough info

Jackson: has not played any Phillies

Jeff Karstens (R): 4.85 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 3.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.33 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 56% fb, 18% sl, 14% ch, 13% cb
r/l: .849 vs .785 ops; 1.6 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .864 vs .776 ops; 1.2 vs 1.2 k/bb

Karstens vs Phillies:

Bako: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

SENT TO AAA: Ian Snell (R): 5.36 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.56 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% sl, 14% cb, 10% ch
r/l: .745 vs .880 ops; 2.9 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .805 vs .813 ops; 1.8 vs 1.9 k/bb

Snell vs Phillies:

Rollins: 12/19, 1 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/13, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K, 1 Sf
Utley: 1/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 2/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 4/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Victorino: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/4, 0 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .227/.281/.351

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .309/.375/.463

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .307/.427/.578

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially

for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .253/.332/.522

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .268/.373/.522

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .292/.339/.407

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .239/.340/.374

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .245/.342/.382

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .139/.207/.208

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a

counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .274/.319/.472

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .271/.427/.458

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .200/.273/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

LF John Mayberry (R): .200/.250/.511

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 4.69 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.78 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Pirates:

Hinske: 3/17, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Monroe: 10/14, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Vazquez: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Moss: 1/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.70 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.65 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Pirates:

Adam LaRoche: 2/3, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

SUNDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.04 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.65 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not faced any Pirates

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB; in MLB: 3.18 ERa, 1.6 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0 HR/9, 2.17 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.99 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Pirates:

Hinske: 10/34, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Monroe: 2/13, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Adam LaRoche: 2/8, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Sanchez: 4/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Wilson: 1/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Vazquez: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Moss: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Maholm: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 6.89 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Pirates:

Wilson: 4/15, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Sanchez: 1/8, 2 BB, 5 K
Adam LaRoche: 3/4, 0 BB, 1 K
HInske: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Monroe: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Moss: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.09 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.39 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Pirates:

Adam LaRoche: 3/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Wilson: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.09 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.12 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Pirates:

Hinske: 0/10, 0 BB, 2 K
Wilson: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Monroe: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Moss: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Adam LaRoche: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 5.49 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.98 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Pirates:

Wilson: 2/12, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Adam LaRoche: 3/12, 0 BB, 3 K
Sanchez: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Monroe: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hinske: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Morgan: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 2.92 ERA, 8.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 6.05 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Pirates:

Hinske: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Monroe: 3/5, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Moss: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Adam LaRoche: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 1.80 ERA, 0.9 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.95 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Pirates:

Ad. LaRoche: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Wilson: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
An. LaRoche: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Young: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Moss: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Scott Eyre (L): 2.40 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Pirates:

LaRoche: 0/10, 1 BB, 4 K
Sanchez: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Wilson: 0/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Morgan: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hinske: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Maholm: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Pirates:

Sanchez: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Wilson: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Adam LaROche: 1 BB
Andy LaRoche: 1 BB
Moss: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K