SB Nation - John Bowker

Hensley Meulens hired as new hitting coach

Grant — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:44:34 -0000

Here's a Velez. Now make him a good hitter.

...taps foot impatiently...

Like, now. We're in this thing next year.

(The press release is after the jump, if you're so inclined. I'll just leave this link here so you don't have to ask.)

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - The San Francisco Giants have announced that Hensley Meulens has been named the club's major league hitting coach, club Senior Vice President and General Manager Brian Sabean announced today.

             Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens spent the past season as the triple-A hitting coach for the Fresno Grizzlies, guiding the team to the sixth-highest batting avg. in the Pacific Coast League with a .275 mark. Two of the Grizzlies' batters placed in the top 10 for highest batting avg. in the PCL with John Bowker leading the league with a .342 clip and Jesus Guzman placing fifth with a .321 mark. After the minor league season concluded, he joined the Giants and worked as an assistant during September.

             "We are excited to promote someone of Hensley's baseball background to the big league club," Sabean said. "He will be a great asset to the team as we look to improve our run scoring production with both our existing major league hitters as well as the young talent we have coming up from our minor league system. Hensley brings a unique perspective to the game with his playing time in the majors, Latin America and Japan as well as his coaching work with a number of major league organizations. He distinguished himself as a coach this past season in spring training, with Fresno and here with the big league club in September, and we look for him to get underway immediately with our hitters this off-season."

             "I'm excited to add a person of Hensley's professionalism to our hardworking coaching staff," Giants manager Bruce Bochy stated. "He had a chance to assist with us before and during the season and he displayed to everyone a tremendous ability to work with all of our hitters and to relate to them on various levels."

             Prior to joining the Giants' organization, the Curacao native was the triple-A hitting instructor for the Indianapolis Indians of the Pittsburgh Pirates' organization from 2005-08. He was also a coach at Bluefield, Baltimore's advanced rookie team in the Appalachian League from 2003-04. The 42-year-old made his professional debut with the New York Yankees organization in 1986 and spent eight years in their system. He played parts of five seasons with the Yankees (1989-93) before spending three seasons in Japan (1994-96). Upon returning to the U.S., Meulens had brief stints with Montreal (1997) and Arizona (1998) before concluding a 17-year playing career in 2002 with Puebla in the Mexican League. The former utility man batted .220 (109-for-496) with 15 home runs and 53 RBI in 182 major league contests. Meulens was the first major leaguer to come from Curacao, which has since produced a number of other players, including Andruw Jones, Randall Simon and Jair Jurrjens. He has the rare ability of speaking five languages: English, Spanish, Dutch, Papiamento and Japanese.

The Giants and Minor League Evaluation

Grant — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:57:18 -0000

Not much time for a ton of writing today, so I'll just ask your help for possible posts down the road. I'm trying to make a list of examples of the Giants ignoring minor league performance in their hitter evaluation process in the Brian Sabean era.

Rich Aurilia -- Fine numbers for a AAA shortstop, blocked by Jose Vizcaino because he was the "get one free" part of the Jeff Kent trade.
Todd Linden -- Stellar numbers in AAA, never given a chance (note: this is a list of examples for better or for worse. It was almost assuredly a good thing that Linden didn't get a chance as a starter.)
Dan Ortmeier -- Very little power, contact, or on-base skills in the minors, fluked his way into a .497 slugging percentage in 157 major league at-bats, taken seriously as a candidate for a starting 1B job in the majors
Kevin Frandsen -- Career .317/.380/.452 hitter in the minors, blocked by vets and rooks alike. Also a career .241/.306/.342 hitter in the majors in over 450 at-bats, so this might be more of a Linden situation rather than a crime against player evaluation.
Nate Schierholtz -- Career .308/.355/.516 hitter in the minors, blocked by vets and rooks alike. Also a career .287/.318/.408 hitter in the majors in over 450 at-bats, so...hey, that reads familiar.
Brian Bocock -- A year after hitting .220 in A-ball, he was the Opening Day shortstop. Seriously.
Emmanuel Burriss -- Two years after hitting .165 in A-ball, he was the Opening Day second baseman. Seriously.
John Bowker -- Hit .342/.451/.596 with a reworked approach in AAA. The player standing in the way of a starting job in the majors hasn't hit a home run since April.
Buster Posey -- Isn't likely to have an on-base percentage below .300, which makes him a special offensive catcher in this organization's history. Needs to prove his worth to get a single start; won't get a single start until he proves his worth.
Eugenio Velez -- Nothing in his minor league career, other than a fine age-24 season in low-A, suggests he'll be more than a fine bench player. Because he had a ridiculously hot 80 at-bats when he was called up, though, he's a starting outfielder. And he's done just fine, mind you. But he also starts against left-handers, against whom he's hit .241/.288/.353 over his minor league career and .212/.287/.260 in his major league career.

No thesis, really. I'm just trying to figure out why the Giants completely ignore minor league statistics when they evaluate hitters. Actually, I guess I'm trying to figure out if they ignore minor league stats, and if that's even helped the team on a few occassions. Please help me fill in any gaps or omissions. Also let me know if I'm cherry-picking and/or making too much out of nothing. Also, feel free to ignore baseball entirely and talk about lunch, as that's what you're going to do anyways.

Baker Leads Cubs Past Former Candlestick Players, 3-2

Al — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 13:01:05 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Jeff Baker, home run hero. Who would have thought?

Browse more photos »

As the Cubs and their coaches and manager came onto the field for the handshakes and high-fives after their come-from-behind 3-2 win over the Giants, I saw something I don't think I've seen all year.

A smile on Lou Piniella's face.

Sorry it took so long, Lou, but that one was definitely worth a smile (and worth me staying up late to see the end).

For most of the game it appeared this recap was going to be written as a form letter, one I've written so many times ("Cubs pitcher throws great, offense impotent, [insert name of pitcher here] deserved better"). And for eight innings, the game set up exactly that way. Ryan Dempster threw another excellent game -- he has a 1.73 ERA in five starts covering 36.1 innings in September, during which he has issued only six walks -- but got victimized by a man hitting .178 coming into the game. John Bowker, sort of the Giants' version of Micah Hoffpauir, spent a good chunk of 2009 at the Giants' Triple-A stop at Fresno, pounding minor league pitching at a .342/.451/.596 clip before being recalled in July. Like Hoffpauir, he's really more of a first baseman than an outfielder; also like Micah, both players were in left field for their respective teams, and Bowker struggled at the major league level this year.

Not last night. Perhaps channeling Hoffpauir's two-homer, five-RBI career day against the Mets last September (oddly, one year ago today), Bowker chose last night to have the best day of his 2009 season. He doubled in the Giants' first run and then nearly sent a ball into McCovey Cove (it landed in the last row of the RF seats) for a homer, giving the Giants a 2-1 lead.

Other than those hits, Dempster held the rest of the Giants to five singles and a walk in seven innings; he lowered his season ERA to 3.68 and he says he'd like to start two more times in order to meet a personal goal of 200 innings:

He's at 186 innings, and will make two more starts, opening the final homestand next Tuesday against Pittsburgh and closing the season on Oct. 4 against Arizona.

"That's a goal of mine every year," Dempster said of reaching 200. "I just want to win ballgames. I sign up to make as many starts as I can. If it happens, it happens. Today was a great win for us. If I can help us win a couple more ballgames, it'll be awesome."

Absolutely, and if Dempster can, say, finish the season with two wins in those starts and an ERA near 3.50, his 2009 season will be not that far off the pace he set in his first full year as a Cub starter in 2008, despite a rocky start that likely had a lot to do with the personal stress he was feeling due to the health problems his newborn daughter had in April.

Aaron Heilman threw another solid scoreless inning in relief; we've all bitched about Heilman plenty here, but in 14 appearances since August 12 he has thrown 16.1 innings, struck out 12 and walked only three and posted a 1.65 ERA. The key is the lack of walks; at the very least if he can keep this up, he will have trade value this offseason.

Heilman wound up with the win when Jeff Baker, down to his final strike and an 0-2 count, laid off a pair of out-of-the-strike-zone sliders and slammed the next pitch into the left-field seats for a game-winning two-run homer. Derrek Lee had stolen second base while Baker was batting to try to set himself up in scoring position to tie the game; unfortunately:

The Cubs may be a little shorthanded Friday if Derrek Lee can't go. The first baseman aggravated his neck when he slid into second base in the ninth.

"Every time he slides, I cringe," Piniella said. "What happened probably is when he came in, someone tapped him on the head scoring the run in the ninth, and I don't think that helped the situation either."

That's why Hoffpauir moved from LF to 1B for the last of the ninth, which Carlos Marmol finished off without too much incident for his 15th save (and 12th in a row). It was one of the best games of 2009, preventing the Cardinals from clinching the NL Central for another day. I woke up this morning to a voicemail from my dad, who lives in San Francisco, telling me some friends invited him to the game. Glad he got to see such a good one -- that's two Cubs wins he has seen this year, including this one at Wrigley Field on May 14.

It's nice to see wins like this; they give great hope for the future. Keep up the good work -- let's see more smiles on Lou's face.

Finally, the winner of last night's photo caption contest is KaliCub, who submitted this entry:

In a stunning display of one-upmanship, the Cubs fail when Jake Fox jumps and rest of Cubs fielders fall down, only to find out that Jake didn’t catch the ball.

KaliCub, please email me your address so I can send you the DVD. Thanks for all the entries!

Post-Game Recap: Three Games Ba...Wait, What?

Grant — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 05:04:02 -0000

If you can say that Buster Posey will cost the Giants games because he's a catching neophyte, if you can say that Posey's inability to frame pitches is unacceptable for a team still clinging to hope in a playoff race, then I can say this:

Eli Whiteside had a chance to throw out Derrek Lee in the ninth inning, and he couldn't. He had a chance to go back to a slider just outside of the zone against Jeff Baker, and he didn't. He is batting under .200, and in order to make up for that, he needs to have magic defensive skills and magic game-calling ability. Whiteside does not. No one does, and that's the point. This post game recap looked a little different five minutes ago. There was actual praise for Bochy. Here, take a look:

In the interest of fairness, let us praise Bruce Bochy for a second. No more, no less.
Thank you, Bruce, for starting John Bowker tonight. Thank you for giving him a second straight start, especially after he didn't do much of note in Monday's game. Sure, he worked an 0-2 count into a walk, braving possible clubhouse fines in the process, but that's not that sexy. If Andres Torres can't get a start after a two-homer game, what chance did Bowker stand?

Oh, ye of little faith. Sure, the reason Bowker started was probably a stupid one -- EIGHT AT-BAT DOMINATION OVER RYAN DEMPSTER, ENGAGE -- but it's not worth it to get the dental picks out for this particular horse. I've written that Bowker represents one of the only chances the Giants have to improve substantially nex

And then kaboom. If I threw 99 MPH, and Jeff Baker had just spit on two sliders, I'd try and sneak a fastball by the letters too. I'm not blaming Wilson for anything other than the leadoff walk. And, no, it's not fair to blame Whiteside other than to make a point that defensive specialist catchers are never perfect enough to justify putting them in the lineup over their offensively minded counterparts.

Also of note: That ninth-inning at-bat by Aaron Rowand was the worst at-bat I've seen all year, and I've watched the 2009 Giants, so I've seen plenty of contenders. No hyperbole, that was the worst at-bat of the year. Nate Schierholtz swung at three balls that hit him this season, and those three at-bats can't even touch the masterpiece from Rowand.

	I believe that the Giants are in this thing	I'm very, very skeptical that the Giants are in this thing.
Giants prove they are in this thing	I'm excited!	I'm excited!
Giants prove they are not in this thing	I'm devastated.	Meh.

I've been angrier. Thanks, silly little table, for telling me how to calm down.

Giants/Diamondbacks Series Preview

Grant — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 20:12:19 -0000

The Giants are about to start a series against the Diamondbacks. Before each game, someone will sing The National Anthem. Snacks and beverages will be sold at the ballpark.

Hitter to watch:

Whatever.

Until the Giants are mathematically eliminated, we won’t see John Bowker or Buster Posey, who are the only real internal options to help the 2010 offense. Bowker gets an at-bat a week, and he either walks or strikes out. Are the strikeouts happening because he has an untamable urge to flail at every breaking ball in the dirt, or is it because he’s caked in rust? No one knows.

There’s no way to find out in the heat of a pennant race because that would mean that one of the worst hitters in the league would have to sit. And then what would happen if Bowker were one of the worst hitters in the league? Chaos. Nothing would change from a statistical standpoint – replacing one bad hitter with another wouldn’t make a difference in the number of runs scored – but the veterans would run amok, staging a bloody coup. They would be completely incapable of understanding that poor performance might lead to decreased playing time, so they would act like overgrown toddlers with access to baseball bats. The sea would run red with the blood of those who dared lessen a veteran’s playing time. I mean, check it out for yourself.

The upside would have been that the Giants would have scored more runs, and perhaps they might have pulled out an extra game or two in the late months. But that certainly isn’t worth the violence.

When Jason Bay had an okay season in the Eastern League when he was 23, that was nice, but it sure didn’t mean anything. And when Bay hit well in AAA when he was 24, that didn’t mean anything. What meant something was when Bay got a chance with the Pirates, who weren’t contending, and he succeeded. Well, he was pretty poor in the same number of at-bats that Bowker received this year before getting hot, but that's not the point. It would have been nice if Bowker succeeded with the chance he wasn’t given, as that would make things pretty clear. It’s Bowker’s fault, though, that he failed in sporadic appearances at the major league level, which means much more than a consistent pattern of AAA success built over an entire season and utilizing an impressive and reworked approach to hitting.

In conclusion, it’s too bad that Bowker’s going to be blocked by the 6 year/$100M contract the Giants give to Jason Bay.

Fielder to watch:

A new series-preview category this late in the season? What gives? It’s worth it, though, as there’s a small chance that Buster Posey might start a game this season. So let’s just review what Tim Lincecum said about Posey’s defense:

I swear to all that is holy, if he starts one game, I’m walking off the team. When he showed up to catch my bullpen session, he had one of those novelty "#1" foam oversized fingers, and when I asked him about it, he sincerely thought that was a catcher’s mitt. Like, he wasn’t kidding. And then when he started calling pitches, he called for, and I quote, "a quick slant or an alley-oop."
I’m sorry, but rookie catchers need decades of apprenticeship before they start. End of discussion. That would have ended our season if he started.

And don’t forget what Madison Bumgarner said when Posey caught the left-hander’s inning on Saturday:

"This time, it was like a regular game to me," said Bumgarner. "Balls went to the backstop, he threw a ball into the stands trying to pick someone off ‘at fifth base’, and he hit on the rosin bag. The guy’s a joke of a catcher."

Hopefully, if Molina gets a rest, we’ll see more Eli Whitside.

Pitcher to watch:

You’re still reading? Jeez. That much bitter sarcasm usually makes everyone leave for at least a week. Uh, a pitcher to watch, let’s see, uh… Dan Runzler. He’s much more impressive than I was expecting; I suppose I was a little cynical and expecting a high-eighties dookie specialist. Because young pitchers can handle stressful pennant races, we’ll see him a couple of times in the series in high-leverage situations. Even in the blowouts, it’s been fun to watch Runzler pitch.

Prediction:

Whatever.

Kuroda Dazzles in Rout of the Giants

Brendan Scolari — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 07:42:48 -0000

by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Casey Blake, right, is greeted at the plate by James Loney after Blake's two-run home run off San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Matt Cain during the sixth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Friday, Sept. 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

View full size photo »

The Dodgers beat the Giants 10-3 on Friday in a true team effort. Hiroki Kuroda got the win, pitching 8 innings of 3 hit ball, while allowing 2 runs on 0 walks and 5 strikeouts. Kuroda only threw 86 pitches in the outing, and retired 19 consecutive batters strecthing from the second inning to the eighth inning.

Kuroda gave up his first run in the second inning, allowing a single by Bengie Molina and a double by Juan Uribe. Molina scored on a groundout by Nate Schierholtz that started his conseective out run. The only other run he allowed was in the eighth inning when John Bowker tripled on a fly ball to "Triples Alley" and then scored on a Ryan Rohlinger groundout. Kuroda came out after the eigth inning and was replaced by Ramon Troncoso, who allowed one run before finishing the game. After the game Kuroda said:

"I would like to finish as strong as I did last year. We're in first place and Colorado is really close, and my thought is to pitch my game and contribute to the team so we can win a championship and the World Series. I've gone through a lot, the DL twice, I got hit in the head for the first time in 13 years of professional baseball. I'd like to finish really strong."

But it definitely wasn't all Kuroda, the offense was clicking as well. The Dodgers scored the first two runs of the game in the first inning when James Loney cashed in two Dodger singles on a double to right center. But no more runs came across until the sixth inning, when Casey Blake (in his first game back after sitting out the previous five) smacked a two-run homerun to left field, putting the Dodgers up 4-1. The game was broken open in the seventh when the Dodgers tacked on five more runs. Four straight batters reached base to start the inning, and following a sacrifice fly by Loney, a single by Blake, and a double by Russell Martin the Dodgers were up 9-1. The offense capped it off with another run in the eigth inning when Matt Kemp hit a double to score Juan Pierre and give th Dodgers 10 runs on the night.

On offense six of the eight starting position players reached base muliple times, with only Rafael Furcal and Ronnie Belliard reaching once. Ethier, Kemp, and Blake all scored twice and Blake and Loney each had three RBI's.

Here's the win probability chart for the game:

via www.fangraphs.com

The win kept the Dodgers 2 games ahead of the surging Rockies (currently on an eight game winning streak) and left the Giants 7.5 games back in the NL West. The Dodgers are currently tied with the Cardinals for the best record in the National League and 2.5 games ahead of the Phillies. Tommorow Vicente Padilla (10-6, 4.63) takes on Jonathan Sanchez (6-11, 4.03) at 6:05 PM.

WP - Hiroki Kuroda (6-6): 8 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 5 strikeouts

LP - Matt Cain (13-5): 6 IP, 7 hits, 4 runs, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts

What's Wrong With the Giants Offense? Oh, A Couple of Things...

Grant — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 14:26:08 -0000

This post isn't for most of you. About 99% know all of this. But if you would kindly alert the non-baseball nerd world to some of these points, that'd be just swell.

After the Giants' offense failed again, people were all abuzz about Edgar Renteria's at-bat in the sixth inning. "Edgar should have bunted! Edgar should have given himself up to hit one to the right side! The Giants can't afford not to do The Little Things. This is why the Giants lost!"

This is dangerous, dangerous thinking. It puts the blame on an inability to make outs the right way. It shifts the blame away from the real culprit, which is an inability to avoid outs. The Giants don't score runs. For example...


Tm	R/G ▾
PHI	5.12
COL	5.02
MIL	4.86
LAD	4.78
FLA	4.71
ATL	4.56
ARI	4.54
STL	4.50
WSN	4.47
LgAvg	4.45
CHC	4.41
NYM	4.19
HOU	4.09
PIT	4.07
CIN	4.03
SFG	4.02
SDP	3.91
	4.45

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/3/2009.

Hey, look at that. They're one of the worst teams in the National League at scoring runs -- the worst if you give the Padres extra credit for Petco Park, which you should. What a shock. But why? I look up and down the lineup, and consarnit, there isn't even a .280 hitter other than Pablo Sandoval! The Giants need some contact hitters, and...

Tm	BA ▾
LAD	.273
NYM	.268
FLA	.266
ATL	.266
HOU	.263
WSN	.262
MIL	.262
COL	.262
STL	.261
LgAvg	.259
SFG	.259
PHI	.258
PIT	.254
CHC	.254
ARI	.254
CIN	.244
SDP	.242
	.259

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/3/2009.

Oh. So they're actually a league-average team when it comes to batting average. Well, that doesn't prove anything. If they could just do the little things and move runners over, scoring with a runner on third and less than two outs, they could take advantage of...

	PrdOut
Tm	Opp	Suc	% ▾
HOU	484	173	36%
NYM	519	181	35%
SFG	498	171	34%
FLA	504	170	34%
COL	520	177	34%
CIN	507	174	34%
MIL	487	162	33%
LAD	555	183	33%
ATL	470	157	33%
LgAvg	502	161	32%
STL	489	157	32%
PHI	463	139	30%
SDP	500	147	29%
PIT	475	140	29%
ARI	516	152	29%
WSN	534	152	28%
CHC	509	134	26%
	8030	2569	32%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/4/2009.

PrdOut is short for "productive outs", defined as one of three events: 1) a successful sacrifice for a pitcher with one out, 2) advancing any runner with none out, and 3) Driving in a base runner with the second out of an inning. And the Giants are at the top of the league. They can do the little things with the best of them. They move runners over as much as any team in the league.

It feels like they constantly fail, though, because every runner-on-third, one out situation feels like it will be the only chance for the Giants to score. And we remember those failed opportunities at the end of the game. They sting. But those missed chances happen to every team.

Tm	OBP ▾
LAD	.347
COL	.344
WSN	.342
MIL	.342
ATL	.340
FLA	.338
NYM	.336
PHI	.335
LgAvg	.331
STL	.331
CHC	.330
ARI	.327
HOU	.323
PIT	.320
SDP	.319
CIN	.313
SFG	.310
	.331

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/3/2009.

The problem isn't productive outs. The problem is outs. Every hitter who isn't Pablo Sandoval or Fred Lewis makes more outs than the average hitter. Bengie Molina has the second-worst on-base percentage in the NL. Even worse, when he's on base, he isn't able to score from second on a single, or from first on a double. Randy Winn has the second-worst on-base percentage among NL right fielders. Even worse, these two players are routinely given spots of honor in the batting order, spots that maximize RBI opportunities and guarantee more plate appearances over the course of a season.

This is to say nothing of their lack of power, but there isn't a magic cleanup hitter waiting to spring forth and hit 20 September home runs. There are two hitters, though, who have a good chance at improving the Giants' on-base woes. John Bowker had a .451 on-base percentage in AAA. Lop off 100 points from that total if you think that's what the jump up to the majors will do to his numbers -- that's a bit of a overreaction, but do it if it makes you feel better -- and Bowker would still have the third-best on-base percentage on the team. And we know he can hit for a little power at the major league level.

Buster Posey had a .416 on-base percentage over two minor league levels. That would probably dip a bit in the majors, but he wouldn't be the second-worst outmaker in the league. Even if he were that bad, if his on-base percentage were to drop 150 points in the majors to match Molina's, at least he can make it home from second on a triple. And it isn't as if he's wearing an oven mitt on the field and telling the pitchers to throw knuckleballs, dropsy-dos, and slowballs. He's a freaking catcher. He isn't going to be that much worse than Molina.

But the Giants don't care about minor league performances. Can you imagine a GM saying, "Ah, I have no idea what Ruben Rivera did last year. Don't know his batting average. Don't know how many home runs he hit. I just know he has all the tools, and he looked good when I watched him play, so he'll be the cleanup hitter when the season starts"? Fired on the spot. Ignoring minor league performances is just as archaic. For every Todd Linden or Mike Marshall who sputtered after big minor league seasons, there are ten players who carried their success over from the high minors. You take Todd Linden as your example of AAA-to-MLB futility. I'll take every good hitter in the majors as an example that minor league stats mean something, with the exception of Hanley Ramirez, who didn't do a lot of anything in AAA.

Is it a risk to start young, unproven players in a playoff push? Absolultely. Imagine what would happen if they were the worst hitters in baseball. Why, they'd be replacing some of the worst hitters in baseball. What kind of Folgers crystals switcheroo madness that would be. And the Giants wouldn't score runs. Not sure where the risk is.

This has zero chance of happening. There's no way that Bowker or Posey will get any starts down the stretch. But if this post stops someone from saying "The Giants need a hitting coach who helps with the little things!", I'll sleep better. This is the best pitching staff we'll probably ever see. The people in charge of the offense were gifted one of the best hitters in the N.L. He was left on our doorstep, like a chubby little George Brett in a bonnet. And instead of being a part of a great team, he's the only thing that kept the 2009 Giants from being one of the worst offenses of all time.

The Giants are a bad hitting team. They could get better, but the people in charge will choose not to because they believe in ~~dragons and unicorns~~ veterans getting better with age down the stretch. I, for one, look forward to the contract extensions given to Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy. And Randy Winn and Bengie Molina, too? We can only hope.

Rox can bury the Giants with 4-game set at Coors

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 18:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Time to hang them up to dry for good.

Browse more photos »

Some things have changed since the last time the Giants were in town. Some haven't.

After the Rockies took two of three for San Fran at Coors July 24-26, the Rockies were two games ahead of the Giants for the wild card. Right now, they are two games ahead of the Giants for the wild card. Tim Lincecum's arm is still firmly attached to his right shoulder, and Bengie Molina still sucks. But for all the holdovers, this will certainly be a different team. Of the four starters in line to face the Rockies, only one pitched in the last series. The lineup features a new second baseman, left fielder, and first baseman, transforming the top of the order. Of course, the Rockies counter with a strengthened bullpen.

The Rockies can put a substantial dent in the Giants playoff aspirations. Just think: winning the series by any means will push the Giants at least four games out of the race, a deficit that is (gasp!) bigger than the one the Rockies currently face in the division, and there are many who maintain that deficit is too steep already.

So how have those new shiny pieces helped the Giants' offense? Well, since the trade deadline, their team wOBA is .326, a step up from their .304 season mark, but it hasn't been Sanchez and Garko that have done it. They have a .306 and .282 mark since the trade respectively. Naturally, that's not the most important metric to measure by.

Since adding both players to their roster, the Giants are 10-8 . In 8 of those 18, the offense has failed to score more than 2 runs. Their August runs/game is up to 4.17 (their season mark is 3.98). So there's a slight improvement, and it will help when Sanchez returns tonight. He has missed 7 of the 20 games since he was acquired.

However, for reference, the Rockies offense has pumped out 6.06 runs/game in August, and 12 of 19 have been on the road. That has been inflated at Coors, but their 4.90 mark on the road far bests the Giants, and everyone here seems very worried about our offense...

Are the Giants improved enough? With 10 games left between the two teams, four this weekend, anything is possible. But I don't think (and never have) that their still anemic offense will be enough to knock off more complete teams. I'm not the only one. Rockies, make me right this weekend.

I encourage sparring with Gnat fans: McCovey Chronicles.

San Francisco Giants (66-55, L1, 3rd, 2 GB WC, 5 GB Div)

Friday-Monday: 4-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: D

I'm sorry, but an offense can't be any good with Bengie Molina STILL in the cleanup spot. His 82 OPS+ would place him as the 6th worst cleanup hitter since 1957. Even if the Giants win the Wild Card, Bruce Bochy should be DQed from Manager of the Year consideration on that fact alone, and I'm tempted to give them an F again. However, the rest of the lineup is indeed improved, as actually five hitters are above league average in wOBA.

But as I showed in the lead, they still aren't scoring runs (they scored one run in 3 of their last 4 games) and the two pieces they added to their 2nd-worst team-wOBA are not producing.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Eugenio Velez - LF	.300	3	14	.336	.438	.338
Freddy Sanchez - 2B	.297	7	39	.333	.433	.331
Pablo Sandoval - 3B	.327	18	70	.377	.545	.389
Bengie Molina - C	.259	15	63	.277	.431	.299
Ryan Garko - 1B	.276	11	47	.353	.429	.344
Aaron Rowand - CF	.275	10	48	.329	.437	.335
Nate Schierholtz - RF	.299	4	23	.326	.445	.327
Edgar Renteria - SS	.261	2	40	.314	.321	.282

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star caliber players (Sandoval), one above average hitter (Garko), two slightly above average hitters (Rowand and Velez), two about average hitters (Sanchez and Schierholtz), and two hitters who "suck," as RMN described yesterday (Molin anad Renteria).

Juan Uribe (.277, 6, 28) is the utility infielder and Travis Ishikawa (.263, 8, 31) is back on the roster to spell Garko. Fred Lewis (.274, 4, 16) and Randy Winn (.269, 2, 45) are backup outfielders and both figure to start at least once in the series. Rookie Eli Whiteside (.225, 1, 7) is Molina's backup catcher.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups, injuries and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: A

Two of the Giants starters have not faced the Rockies this season. One has Cy Young hardware. The other (Saturday's starter) is just coming off of having his own hardware struck by a batted ball, forcing him to miss most of the season. Barry Zito is pitching a lot better and he had a dominating start vs the Rockies earlier this year. Jeo Martinez has been decent in his three starts. Sanchez has been solid in his six starts since the no-hitter. We do miss Matt Cain however. Also, the bullpen is exceptionally stable and strong.

Statistically speaking, the Giants lead MLB in shutouts and have the 3rd best pitching staff, according to Fangraphs, behind Boston and, ahem, Colorado. They lead MLB in K's (as if that were surprising), ERA, and complete games. Their ERA/FIP/tRA rotation split is 3.55/3.73/4.03, and only Barry Zito is "below average" per StatCorner. The bullpen is 3.30/3.67/3.98.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Brian Wilson	5-5	2.75	1.11	61	21

The bullpen composition hasn't changed since the last time the Giants were in town. The pen is anchored by closer Brian Wilson, followed by Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo and Bob Howry. Merkin Valdez, Justin Miller and Brandon Medders fill out the bullpen. Meddres and Valdez aren't very scary, but the other five have been good.

The D: B

The Giants have MLB 3rd best UZR/150, and only seven teams have made fewer errors. Fangraphs rates San Francisco's defense as #1 in MLB. However, a lot of that statistical benefit has come from Ishikawa and Winn, who aren't full-time starters anymore. Outside of them, every player in the lineup is either slightly above average or merely serviceable.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 7:10 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jonathan Sanchez	5-10	4.49	1.41	120	64

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	10-5	4.31	1.46	75	44

Jonathan Sanchez can't pitch on the road. He's 1-8 with a 5.20 ERA on the road despite a .296 BABIP against. His worst start since his reinsertion to the rotation came at Coors Field July 25, but he's quietly turning his season around to the point where he's legitimately having a career year. Cook is coming off his worst start of the year and has allowed 5 HR in his past 3 starts. One important note: the Giants left Cincinnati yesterday afternoon, while the Rockies had to travel from Washington after a night game. That could affect the game. Cookie said he fixed his balance point problem, which apparently sabotaged his last start. If he has, this matchup favors the Rockies. Otherwise, I'm nervous about this one.

Saturday, August 22, 6:10 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Joe Martinez	3-1	4.76	1.71	10	6

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	11-8	4.58	1.39	140	57

Martinez was placed on the 60-day DL with a concussion after getting hit with a line drive off his head in Spring Training. The rookie hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any appearance, but then again, he hasn't gotten more than 15 outs in a game this year. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts but is serviceable at the back end of the rotation. De la Rosa has allowed just 1 run in his last 13.2 IP, winning 9 of his last 10 starts and allowing 2 or less runs in 7 of 9 starts. The game will be broadcast on MLB Network.

Sunday, August 23, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Tim Lincecum	12-3	2.37	1.04	207	46

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	11-9	3.41	1.23	145	64

This game should be on every sports channel except maybe YES. I thought Lincecum would fall apart this year or at least regress. He hasn't. There's not a whole lot to say. He's a stud. However, the Rockies have hit him harder than just about anyone in his career, and the Giants are just 2-3 in games he's started at Coors. So if you want a sliver of hope, there's that. Plus, he just got whipped up on by the only team with a worse wOBA than the Giants. The Rockies counter with their own OMGACE, who has thrown 8 straight quality starts. Ubaldo is quietly 4-0 with a 1.47 ERA in August.

Monday, August 24, 6:40 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Barry Zito	8-11	4.26	1.32	114	56

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Marquis	14-8	3.58	1.28	79	52

In his last 7 starts, Zito is 3-2 with a 2.36 ERA. He dominated the Rockies May 3 at AT&T. His WHIP and and ERA are coming down towards strong numbers, and he could certainly confuse Rockies hitters if he's on. As FooMan has shown, Marquis has not broken down in the second half. He has 9 quality starts in his 11 post-ASB starts, and the Rockies are 7-4 in his home starts.

My take

It's amazing how real life can play out like theater. The probable pitchers line up perfectly for three very competitive matchups that could easily go either way, making home field advantage key, though Colorado ought to win Saturday's game. With the Dodgers facing the bumbling Cubs in the meantime, the goal should be at least three wins, though a split is not debilitating. I think the Rockies take 3 and put the Giants behind the 8-ball.

Bengie Molina has four August HR, while Fred Lewis is 11-for-23 in August. Velez, Sanchez, Sandoval, Renteria and Schierholtz are all hitting over .300 this month, and Brian Wilson has allowed just one run since July 11.

Travis Ishikawa is only 4-for-22 this month and Freddy Sanchez has just 4 singles in his last 17 ABs.

Andres Torres (hamstring - 7/31) and Rich Aurilia (ankle - 8/12) are both on the 15-day DL. Noah Lowry (ribs) has been on the 60 day DL since at least Opening Week, and P Kelvin Pichardo (shoulder - 6/28), Randy Johnson (trapezius - 7/6) and Henry Sosa (shoulder - 8/5) are now keeping him company.

Poll

After this series, the Rockies will be leading San Fran by:

They won't: The Giants' offense will awaken at Coors, their pitching will dominate, and the Rockies will be looking up at SF after being swept.

34 votes

Zero: We manage to win just one game against the Giants.

24 votes

Two: The evenly matched teams split the series, prolonging the drama

82 votes

Four: With a series win 3-1, the Rockies put the Giants a ways back

142 votes

Six: Goodbye San Francisco. Getting swept at Coors pushes them on the brink.

33 votes

315 votes | Poll has closed

Why I Still Believe in John Bowker

Grant — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 21:21:51 -0000

Word association game. I’ll start.

John Bowker

Okay. Now your response, if you will…

Todd Linden

That’s just wrong. I would have accepted "Bowkermania." Maybe even religious studies. But bringing up a busted outfield prospect from the past: not appropriate. It’s apples to oranges. Llamas to alpacas. Just stop. The numbers were totally different:

Todd Linden, age 25, 2005: .324/.441/.690, 30 HR, 77 BB, 95 K, 336 AB

John Bowker, age 26, 2009: .345/.452/.622, 21 HR, 73 BB, 57 K, 325 AB

Totally different. Bowker has 325 at-bats to date, and Linden finished his season with 336. That’s like the difference between Stargate: Atlantis and Stargate: Barstow.

Alright. Maybe the unexpected seasons are a little similar. And Linden burned up upon reentering the atmosphere, settling in as a burned husk somewhere within the bowels of AAA, so why shouldn’t we expect the same from Bowker?

My best answer: Linden’s season was a typical Linden season, it was just more Lindeny. Bowker’s season is the product of a reworked approach and a focus on plate discipline.

Yeah. That’s all I got. That, and a gut feeling. But I’ve written about the Giants for almost seven full years now, and every time I write something in passing like "Boy, Player Q would be a fantastic player if he knew the difference between a strike zone and an Edsel," I never expect the player to actually develop plate discipline. Bowker took some advice from someone who’s probably on a Giants organizational blacklist right now, the advice worked, and now Bowkermania is running wild on AAA.

And, of course, when Bowker got 30+ at-bats to prove his new approach would translate to the major league level, he corkscrewed himself into the ground swinging at awful, awful sliders. We’re not talking about sliders that started just off the plate before breaking out of the strike zone; these were sliders that started at Bowker’s shoes, tilled the soil, and had to be thrown out of play after the umpire inspected the ball. So when we play that word association game, we can only throw out one name in association to Bowker. Great AAA stats + lackluster MLB results + Giants outfield prospect = Todd Linden, from now until the end of time.

I reject that hypothesis. I still believe. This isn’t Lance Niekro, whapping out a .660 slugging percentage to help make up for his six walks , like he did in 2006. This is different. Because I say so. So instead of thinking of Todd Linden, here’s another name to put in your mind:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Nelson Cruz	93	342	56	92	18	1	25	58	34	82	17	3	.269	.337	.547

Much better. Cruz was organizationally yo-yoed with the best of them. He’d crush AAA, and flail in the majors. They’d send him down, and he’d crush AAA. Then he’d flail in the majors. Over and over, until Cruz finally settled in as a pretty nice corner outfielder. He isn’t going to garner any MVP votes, but the Rangers are glad they finally stuck with him.

The only way Bowker helps this year’s team is if he flukes into an 8-for-10 stretch over a couple of games. Then he’ll have to sustain his "hot bat" for a couple more games, and then he’d be starting material. Hooray for the player evaluation process of the Giants! But this post is more a manifesto for the future. I can take or leave Fred Lewis, as I don’t think he’ll ever hit for enough power to be an above-average corner outfielder. Nate Schierholtz might put it all together to become Garret Anderson’s prime, but the odds are against him.

Bowkermania, though, is real. Because I say so. I’m hoping one of the 2010 outfield spots goes to him.

Giants Looking at Indians Victor Martinez and Ryan Garko

Matt Buggenhagen — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 14:27:43 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

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According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the Indians have been heavily scouting the Giants farm system, which could indicate the possibility the teams are discussing a deal for 1B/C Victor Martinez and/or Ryan Garko

Following a dismal 10 game stretch in which the Giants went 3-7, it has become apparent that the Giants are going to need another bat in order to remain in contention. The Giants currently have the second fewest amount of runs scored in the National League only surpassing the last place Padres.

"We're talking," manager Bruce Bochy said. "I'll talk to Brian. I'll discuss it with the staff on the plane on the way back and see what we can do to get this thing going again."

However, in order for the Giants to get Martinez they would probably have to part with one of their top prospects, which include Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner or Tim Alderson, and there is just no chance of that happening. I would think Garko would be a much more realistic options for the Giants, and according to the Chronicle the Giants have scouted Garko earlier this season.

Garko, the Indians current starting first baseman is hitting .285 with 11 homers and 39 RBI's. He would be a considerable upgrade over the Giants current group of first baseman, which include John Bowker (.154/.200/.250) and Travis Ishikawa (.269/.318/.411). Garko is signed for near the league minimum this year or $446,100 to be exact and is arbitration eligible from 2010-2012, which should make him a rather attractive option for the Giants.