SB Nation - Randor Bierd

Minor League Update -- 11/23/09

Ben Buchanan — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:17:48 -0000

First, a weekly reminder to join in on voting for the OTM Top Prospects list here.

Arizona Fall League

Luis Exposito: 3-7, 2B, BB, 2 K -- .314/.364/.431

-A solid showing for Luis Exposito, if not quite as good as he did in Portland. Expo kept his strikeouts down and earned as many walks as he did in AA in about half as many ABs. Not a big step forward, but also not a step back.

Jose Iglesias: 1-8, 3 K -- .275/.324/.420, 3/3 SB

-Iglesias ends on a down note, but once again the story is that he wasn't completely overwhelmed in the small sample size (73 plate appearances) against higher-level minor league competition. This showing may have cleared the way for Iglesias to start in AA next year, which would be nice if only to keep him with buddy/interpreter Exposito. Also of note is the 2 home runs, which hopefully indicate some unpredicted power potential.

Ryan Kalish: 3-11, 2B, BB, 4 K -- .301/.384/.384, 6/7 SB

-While Kalish didn't exactly carry his hot streak from late in the year over to the AFL, he put on another good OBP performance. The power was a bit lacking, but this is coming on the tail end of a year in which he hit 18 home runs during the regular season—far more than he ever had before. Kalish also put on a good show on the basepaths, as he has done in years past (for instance, stealing 12 bases in 13 attempts in the 2008 winter leagues while getting under 100 plate appearances).

Casey Kelly: 0-12, 6 K -- .171/.261/.244, 1/1 SB

-Kelly keeps moving towards full time pitching. While the level of competition was predictably way over his head, he struck out in nearly half of his at bats, which is a bit too much no matter how advanced the opposition. This performance may have cleared the way to full-time pitching in 2010.

Randor Bierd: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – 6.04 ERA, 17:12 K:BB, 1.47 WHIP

-An uninspiring performance by an uninspiring pitcher.

Richie Lentz: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K – 4.11 ERA, 16:3 K:BB, 1.04 WHIP

-Lentz ended the year very poorly, giving up 6 ER over his last 2 appearances to squander a great start to the AFL. But the huge improvement in K:BB shouldn't be overlooked, and if nothing else maybe this will help him be ignored in the Rule 5 Draft.

Chris Province: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – 3.46 ERA, 9:5 K:BB, 1.08 WHIP

-Not too bad for Province, if not as good as his year in Portland. Would have liked to have seen some K:BB improvement.

Dustin Richardson: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – 5.40 ERA, 18:10 K:BB, 1.97 WHIP

-Certainly not as good as his regular season performance, which brought Richardson back into the picture as a prospect. Should still get a shot for a bullpen spot during spring training, though.

Columbian Winter League

Reynaldo Rodriguez: .255/.360/.394

-The CWL does not have the best record keepers in the world, let it be known.

Dominican Winter League

Neither Navarro nor Wagner have played in a long while. I'm guessing their years are over.

Jose Capellan: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 HR, 9 BB, 4 K – 3.86 ERA, 8:19 K:BB, 1.67 WHIP

-Well, if ever there's been an example of unsustainable results, it's Capellan. Even if he has a 3.86 ERA, this has been an awful winter league for him. 8 strikeouts to 19 walks? Awful!

Mexican Winter League

Robert Coello: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – 2.70 ERA, 30:16 K:BB, 1.35 WHIP

-This is Coello's first real chance against competition that's close to being age appropriate since he became a pitcher, and he's actually done a pretty good job of it. This last outing sort of sucked, but still, something to be said for the righty getting his first shot at starting (he's gone 5 or more innings 4 times so far).

Puerto Rican Winter League

Reymond Fuentes: 1-5, 2 K -- .200/.200/.200

-I can't imagine this is going to be a good stint for Fuentes. He played in the GCL last year and is playing in the same league as Jimenez and Bates. I don't exactly know what level this league is supposed to be at, but it's certainly over his head.

Jorge Jimenez: 2-3, 2B, BB -- .400/.538/.800

Ken Roque: 2-6 -- .333/.333/.33

-Roque very quietly put up a .317/.400/.520 line in his 3^rd year in the GCL, finally breaking through into the A-levels where he put up 32 nice ABs in Lowell without looking too overwhelmed. Roque falls into that "sleeper middle infielder" crowd with guys like Derrik Gibson.

Andrew Dobies: 2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – 13.50 ERA, 2:0 K:BB, 3.00 WHIP

-After missing 2008 due to injuries, Dobies put up a fair 2009 in Portland. This, so far, has not been an extension of that...

Sydney Winter League

Boss Moanaroa: 0-3, BB, K -- .393/.485/.571

Moko Moanaroa: 2-4 -- .308/.419/.385

Venezuelan Winter League

Yeiper Castillo: .2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – 5.14 ERA, 5:6 K:BB, 2.00 WHIP

Leandro Marin: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K – 2.25 ERA, 4:1 K:BB, 1.25 WHIP

40-Man Roster Finalized, Rule 5 Draft

MLB teams had to finalize their 40-man rosters on Friday, leaving some tough decisions for teams as to which minor leaguers to protect. For the Red Sox, Jose Iglesias, Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa, Dustin Richardson, Mark Wagner, Aaron Bates, and Dusty Brown comprise the Minor League contingent. The most notable unprotected players available in the upcoming draft are Kris Johnson and Richie Lentz.

Minor League Update -- 11/16/09

Ben Buchanan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:16:28 -0000

Jose Iglesias is not to be kept down. via cache.daylife.com

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First, a weekly reminder to join in on voting for the OTM Top Prospects list here

Arizona Fall League

Only one more week for the AFL and the Sox' biggest name prospects playing this offseason.

Luis Exposito: 3-9, BB -- .295/.340/.409

Jose Iglesias: 8-16, 3 2B, BB, K -- .293/.348/.439

-And just when it looked like he was going to follow through on that "no bat" prediction. A roller coaster stint for Iglesias is so much better than a flatline.

Ryan Kalish: 5-14, HR, 3 BB, 3 K -- .306/.392/.387

-Finally, some of the power! But it's Kalish's continued OBP and patience (BB% of ~12.5) that are really impressive.

Casey Kelly: 3-9, 4 K -- .241/.353/.345

-Y'know, I think Kelly's skills as a shortstop probably get underrated. It's hard to pick things up when everyone is already in midseason form and you're just starting out. Not to mention it seems like he really could have a nice bit of pop for a middle infielder.

Still want him to be a pitcher though...

Randor Bierd: 4 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – 5.40 ERA, 13:10 K:BB, 1.29 WHIP

Richie Lentz: 2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K – 1.98 ERA, 13:2 K:BB, .88 WHIP

-Everybody has a bad game sometimes. Lentz' season is still something to write home about after his crappy year in Portland

Chris Province: 3 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K – 3.86 ERA, 8:4 K:BB, 1.03 WHIP

Dustin Richardson: 2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K – 5.91 ERA, 16:9 K:BB, 1.97 WHIP

-I'm starting to notice a trend as far as earned runs are concerned...

Columbian Winter League

Reynaldo Rodriguez: .213/.310/.311

-Wow, that must've been one bad week.

Puerto Rican Winter League

The late-starting Puerto Rican League started play this week. Only Aaron Bates and Jorge Jimenez saw playing time among Sox players so far.

Aaron Bates: 1-8, 3 K -- .125/.125/.125

Jorge Jimenez: 2-7, HR -- .286/.444/.714

-Two hit by pitches! He's an on base machine!

Sydney Winter League

Boss Moanaroa: 2-4, 2B, K -- .409/.500/.500

-Boss is seeing some time in the corner outfields in Sydney. Committed an error, though.

Moko Moanaroa: 2-4, 3B -- .278/.409/.389

-Though corner outfielder Moko is playing center, so perhaps it's just a matter of level of talent?

Venezuelan Winter League

Yeiper Castillo: 1.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 0 K – 5.68 ERA, 4:5 K:BB, 1.74 WHIP

-Castillo bucks the trend, but in the wrong direction.

Felix Doubront: 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – 1.74 ERA, 3:2 K:BB, 1.06 WHIP

-Not a big "peripherals" year for Doubront.

Ryan Westmoreland Looking Good

The Providence Journal reports that Ryan Westmoreland's recovery is coming along quite nicely. Westmoreland suffered a broken collarbone after running into an outfield wall in the process of making a catch. If Westmoreland is as well as reported, it seems very likely that he won't miss any more baseball due to this injury.

Peter Gammons Chimes In

Gammons had a few notes on Iglesias—not much more than the usual other than this bit:

"What impressed me is that he squares the ball," says an NL scout. "He's not some overwhelmed teenager. He squares the bat on the ball. He shows some pop, and with his speed, if he learns to steal bases, could be a pretty good offensive player."

First time I can remember having heard positive scouting on Iglesias' bat. Maybe he's just having a hot streak, but there's no reason not to hope.
Gammons also notices a long-developing trend in the Sox' minor league system involving depth at shortstop and catcher. While the Sox may not have a wealth of top-level talent, they've been building up a large number of lesser names that could all turn out to be good major league talent at some of the league's most talent-bereft positions. Whether any of them hit remains to be seen, but between Wagner, Exposito, Federowicz and Lavarnway at Catcher, and Iglesias, Navarro, Gibson and Renfroe at SS, they've got some surprisingly good odds. Which is to say nothing of the under-18 group in Oscar Perez and Jose Vinicio.

Sox Acquire Stephen Fox, RHP, from Can-Am League

Fox is the second player acquired by the Red Sox from an independent league this year, joining Reynaldo Rodriguez. Fox had a rocky start to his year, but finished strong by posting a 1.90 ERA and 29 strikeouts in his final 24 innings of work, earning him a look from MLB teams.

So far, Reynaldo Rodriguez has struggled during his short time spent in Edgar Renteria's Columbia Winter League. Daniel Nava, another independent league acquisition, has been dominating every level of competition he's faced in the Sox' farm system, and is likely to start the year in Pawtucket.

Minor League Update -- 11/09/09

Ben Buchanan — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:34:06 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Remember Javier Lopez? Turns out he's a free agent.

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The Over The Monster top prospects list should start being compiled fairly soon. We'll be using reader voting again, with a slightly different format which should make it so that "write ins" aren't necessary.

Arizona Fall League

Luis Exposito: 3-8, 2B -- .286/.324/.429

-Expo's numbers just keep on improving since the bad start.

Jose Iglesias: 2-8, HR, K -- .222/.286/.378

-Again some pop out of Iglesias. His bat is clearly a work in progress, and he needs to work on plate patience BIG TIME (4 out of 5 at bats last game were 1-pitch at bats. The other was a strikeout. Though he did record RBIs on 3 of 5, so it's worth considering that it might have been somewhat situational.)

Ryan Kalish: 4-9, 2B, 2 BB, K -- .292/.368/.333

-After putting on a surprising power performance during the regular season, it's all but disappeared for Kalish in the fall. I wouldn't worry too much about it, though. It could be fatigue, it could be what he's working on, but he's shown he can smack 20+ out. His emergence as a patient hitter who's gonna get on base a lot is much more important.

Casey Kelly: 0-4, BB, K

-Whoo!

Randor Bierd: 3 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K – 5.60 ERA, 12:9 K:BB, 1.19 WHIP

-A poor fall can't be a good sign for Bierd's flickering career.

Richie Lentz: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – 0.77 ERA, 13:2 K:BB, .77 WHIP

-Lentz is putting on quite the show after getting pounded in Portland this year. A dramatic improvement in control (33 BB in 36 IP to 2 in 12) can't hurt.

Chris Province: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – 3.12 ERA, 8:4 K:BB, 1.04 WHIP

Dustin Richardson: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – 5.19 ERA, 13:7 K:BB, 1.85 WHIP

-Includes 1 IP, 2 H, 1 K in the Rising Stars game. That inning will not be included in season numbers.

Columbian Winter League

Reynaldo Rodriguez: .261/.352/.391 in 46 ABs

Dominican Winter League

Mark Wagner: 1-8, K – .296/.390/.500

-Can't dominate every week.

Jose Capellan: 7.1 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 0 K – 3.71 ERA, 4:10 K:BB, 1.53 WHIP

-The ERA isn't horrible. But the peripherals...Oh the peripherals.

Sydney Winter League

The brothers Moanaroa and Mitch Dening have been hanging out in Aussie.

Mitch Dening: .500/.600/1.500 in 4 ABs

Boss Moanaroa: .357/.500/.429 in 14 ABs

-Still want to see the power.

Moko Moanaroa: .250/.357/.250

Venezuelan Winter League

Yeiper Castillo: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – 1.80 ERA, 4:4 K:BB, 1.40 WHIP

Felix Doubront: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K – 2.84 ERA, 2:0 K:BB, .95 WHIP

Leandro Marin: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – 3.38 ERA, 4:0 K:BB, 1.13 WHIP

List of Red Sox Minor League Free Agents

Edit: I have been correctly called out by poster Chebornek for not crediting SoxProspects.com for having gotten my information for this list from them. It was an oversight, and certainly in no way malicious. SoxProspects.com is a fantastic site and I encourage any and all of Over the Monster's readers to visit it--they're honestly a better resource than I am.

Technically, some of these names aren't minor leaguers, but it's worth noting them separate from the obvious big name guys.

Zach Borowiak

Robert Coello

Nick Green

Derrick Loop

Dave McKae

Iggy Suarez

Good luck to all the free agents in finding somewhere to play—whether back with Boston or elsewhere.

(Javier Lopez is a pretty surprising name, if you ask me.)

Speed Check - AFL vs. MLB

Harry Pavlidis — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:45:10 -0000

Stephen Strasburg's fastball is raising some interesting questions. While Strasburg was on the mound on Monday, a Tweet and an email (so old fashioned) came in asking about the Surprise, AZ, PITCHf/x data. Was it hot?

Strasburg throwing 101 was a surprise to many, and seeing him sit near 98 for a few innings raised more questions. I took a look at the two PITCHf/x installations in the Arizona Fall Leauge (Surprise and Peoria) this morning at the Hardball Times.

The basic conclusion was, no, the system in Surprise isn't hot. Relative to Peoria, that is.

Assuming the two systems are pretty much on par, the opportunity came up to compare AFL pitchers to themselves as MLB pitchers. Using release speed (55 ft. from home plate) I was able to compare data from 14 pitchers.

Nothing fancy and statistical, but, as you browse the baker's dozen + 1 set of images below, I think you'll probably reach the same conclusion I did.

The years shown in the parentheses indicate the MLB seasons the pitcher appeared in. The scale is to the game (actually at bat) and varies by pitcher. September 2009 call-ups will have a vastly different x-axis scale compared to a pitcher who worked back in 2007. But it's the y-axis (MPH) that matters.

Bryan Augenstein (2009)

Randor Bierd (2008)

Josh Butler (2009)

Michael Dunn (2009)

Matt Harrison (2008-2009)

Wilton Lopez (2009)

Ian Kennedy (2007, 2009)

Joe Martinez (2009)

Andrew Miller (2007-2009)

Mike Parisi (2008)

Dustin Richardson (2009)

Travis Schlichting (2009)

Mitch Talbot (2008)

Donald Veal (2009)

AFLf/x ain't hot if you ask me.

Don't Count on Matsuzaka

Ben Buchanan — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 20:54:59 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

Daisuke might not be walking through that door. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

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Scheduled to start on September 9th, Daisuke Matsuzaka is currently spending his Sunday afternoon getting rocked in the first inning of a AA rehab start against the New Hampshire Fishercats--one of the league's worst offensive teams.

Matsuzaka has allowed 5 runs on 3 walks and 4 hits including a home run in the first inning, and doesn't seem to be headed for two. It's worth noting that this is Daisuke's first start in months, but if he doesn't show marked improvement in his next rehab start, it seems doubtful the Sox would take a chance on letting Matsuzaka start again down the stretch before he's shown success.

UPDATE: Matsuzaka did come out for the second recording a short perfect inning including a pop up and strikeout. He appears to be done.

If Dice-K cannot return, the Sox would yet again be struggling to put together a rotation. Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz now seem locked into their roles. Paul Byrd pitched well today and will hopefully continue to be the reliable 5th starter he was last year for the Sox, but Tim Wakefield's health is questionable, which could leave an open spot.

The Sox would have relatively limited choices. The 2 obvious names are Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden, but both were shelled in their short MLB stints (as good as Tazawa's results were in a few games, he was hit hard). Another possible option would be Randor Bierd, who was recently converted from a reliever into a starter. He's had some limited and unimpressive major league experience in Baltimore out of the pen, and has been similarly mediocre in the minors, but it might be worth it to take a shot on a new face, and in the process avoid ruining Tazawa and Bowden.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 14:46:41 -0000

Some things to read while waiting for the "take off" sign.

Start your preparations now so you'll be ready to hold your breath for the entire WBC, as Ryan Braun is on the roster for Team USA and Yovani Gallardo is on the roster for Team Mexico. Follow the second link to see where seven other Brewers, including R.J. Swindle, Brett Lawrie, Mark DiFelice and Jorge Julio, will be playing. All of these rosters are preliminary, meaning any or all of these players could still pull out. The last thing the 2009 Brewers need is Yovani Gallardo logging high-pressure innings in March.

So what about Adam Dunn? Everyone seems to be talking about him the last few days. Chuckie Hacks wants to know if you'd rather have him or Corey Hart. (If you vote for Hart, you might be the first one.) Conversation on this topic has been going on in the FanShots for days: jihad has a look at what the Brewers would lose defensively if Hart had to move to center, BrewerBlue87 thinks the Brewers should go for it, and Braun Holio already has a home in mind for Corey Hart. Also, KFFL wants to know what happened to Hart in September.

Meanwhile, the bandwagon is starting to fill up with pundits who would like to see the Brewers trade Prince Fielder. Gerry Fraley of The Sporting News just climbed on. Baseball by Paul ranked Fielder as the sixth best fantasy 1B for 2009. If you haven't yet, you should head over and project Fielder for yourself in the BCB Community Projections.

Whatever the Brewers end up doing this offseason, the excuse for not doing more had better not be "lack of resources." Yesterday the team announced they've already sold 1 million tickets for next season. This is the earliest they've ever reached that milestone.

Let's take a quick look around the minors:

As Jeff noted in a FanShot, Alcides Escobar was 22 runs above average defensively in Huntsville last season.
Jim Callis of Baseball America says he'd take Alcides Escobar over Rangers prospect Elvis Andrus. The Rangers recently moved Michael Young to third to make room for Andrus.
If you're feeling retrospective, Hardball Warriors has compiled the last few BA Top 10 lists on one page, for easy perusal.
Bernie's Crew has profiles up for five minor league free agents the Brewers have recently signed, primarily as depth and filler.

Do you have Facebook? If you don't, here's the only reason you should ever need to sign up: You can be a fan of The Famous Klements Racing Sausages. Go sign up today.

There are several former Brewers making hot stove news today:

Eric Gagne is either close to a deal with the Twins or just one of several options they're considering, depending on your source.
Ben Sheets and the Mets are reportedly not close to any kind of agreement: Sheets wants two years, and the Mets are looking for something closer to the incentive-laden one-year deal Brad Penny signed. The Reds are reportedly unlikely to get involved.
Craig Counsell is reportedly drawing interest from the Mariners. The Brewers are also interested in bringing him back.
Joe Dillon, who was designated for assignment for the second time this offseason a couple of weeks ago, cleared waivers and is headed to AAA.

Elsewhere on the hot stove:

D-Backs: Randy Wolf reportedly rejected an offer from the team, about a week after Jon Garland did the same.
Orioles: Signed a six-year, $66 million deal with Nick Markakis, buying out his three arbitration seasons and his first three years of free agency. They also traded Randor Bierd to the Red Sox for reliever David Pauley.
Phillies: Avoided arbitration by signing Ryan Madson to a three-year deal worth $12 million.
Rangers have reportedly reached agreement on a one-year deal with Omar Vizquel.
Reds: Signed Jonny Gomes to a minor league deal.

Dodgers owner Frank McCourt is quickly becoming a popular fellow. First, he spent $46 million on two adjacent houses in Malibu while Manny Ramirez is unsigned. Then, he left early at the Baseball Scouts Dinner, right in the middle of a speech by Hall of Famer Dave Winfield.

Got some time to kill today? AZ Snakepit wants your team of Alphabet All Stars. If you're lacking inspiration or just can't find a player starting with I, Recondite Baseball has the list of baseball's most and least common initials.

Oh, and by all accounts it's hard to make it to the big leagues as a manager, and even harder to win a Manager of the Year Award. But with that said, buying a Manager of the Year Award only costs about $200 on Ebay.

Drink up.

CC.com's Fairly Well-Informed Top 20 O's Prospects: Post-Season 2008 Edition

SC — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 11:32:10 -0000

On April 1, this happened:

1. Matt Wieters, C
2. Bill Rowell, 3B
3. Radhames Liz, RHP
4. Nolan Reimold, OF
5. Jake Arrieta, RHP
6. Chris Tillman, RHP
7. Garrett Olson, LHP
8. Chorye Spoone, RHP
9. Tony Butler, LHP
10. Hayden Penn, RHP
11. Tim Bascom, RHP
12. Troy Patton, LHP
13. Brandon Snyder, 1B
14. Brandon Erbe, RHP
15. David Hernandez, RHP
16. Pedro Beato, RHP
17. Scott Moore/Mike Costanzo, 3B
18. Matt Albers, RHP
19. Randor Bierd, RHP
20. Bob McCrory, RHP

It is now October 8. This will happen. Instead of going over these guys in that order and how their seasons went, I'm going to re-shuffle at the same time. And there's plenty of movement.

1. Matt Wieters, C (1)

This will no doubt sound very "after the fact," but I was very big on Nick Markakis. While looking at his stat lines, I thought, "Here's a guy that puts up real numbers. Here's a guy that can play." We had been treated to lots of flop prospects that never put up numbers, but we were told yearly about their "potential" and their "ceiling." No one really talked about Markakis' "ceiling" -- he actually played well instead.

Matt Wieters makes Nick Markakis (at similar stages) look like Keith Reed. The former Yellow Jacket entered his first season of professional baseball as maybe the most hyped player coming out of the 2007 draft, partially due to the fact that I think WE were all so excited to have a player of his caliber that we decided to make him out to be Mike Piazza, Mickey Cochrane, Johnny Bench and prime years Pudge Rodriguez all rolled into one.

In 229 ABs at Frederick, he hit .345/.448/.576 with 15 home runs. In 208 at-bats with Bowie, he topped that, hitting .365/.460/.625 with 12 dongs.

If Wieters starts off the year in Bowie or Norfolk in 2009, go see him if you have the chance, because you won't have many to see this superstar-in-the-making play in the sticks. He's coming. He's on his way. Frankly, there's no reason other than contract jive that he isn't the starting catcher for the Baltimore Orioles.

If they want to excite the fans about the future and get the skeptics to buy into the rebuilding (which they've heard before and was bungled so badly that I don't blame them), they need to have Wieters on the club. Simple as that. He's a player.

2. Chris Tillman, RHP (6)

Start the hype machine. This is our best pitching prospect. Thanks, Mariners!

Tillman turns 21...next April. That means that this guy just put on some damn good numbers in Double-A ball, and he can't even legally buy a drink until next April. In 135 innings, Tillman held opposing batters to a .227 average, went 11-4, and struck out 154. The Anaheim native was an Eastern League All-Star, and also represents something different from our pitching prospects, something that Wieters does, too: results. Actual, tangible results. Numbers you can point to as a reason to believe he'll be very good. He's probably not destined to be an ace, but a 2 or a 3? Absolutely. And as much as I try to stay away from blind optimism, given his age, I see no reason he can't become an ace. He's 20!

And because he's so young and good but no phenom, there's no reason to rush him up the chain. He'll be ready when he's ready.

3. Jake Arrieta, RHP (5)

Former Horned Frog Arrieta pitched 113 innings at Frederick, and went just 6-5.

Buuuut...in doing so, he posted a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .199 BAA, and was named to the Carolina League All-Star game, the Carolina League post-season All-Star team, and oh yeah, was named the Carolina League Pitcher of the Year. He also played in the Futures Game.

The league couldn't touch him, but did draw some walks. I loved the Arrieta draft choice when we made it, and it looks even better now. Here's another guy that can solidify a staff in the future, and is showing that ability to do so with RESULTS. I know I keep harping on that, but I don't feel the need to explain Arrieta's ceiling. You can actually see that he's good. It's not just smoke-blowing.

He DID tire late in the season, and finished 1-5 in his last 10 starts with a 4.39 ERA, but conditioning is something you learn, like throwing a good slider or hitting one. Unlike beanpole Tillman (6-5, 195), Arrieta already has the body that a scout would like (6-4, 225).

4. Brian Matusz, LHP (-)

Matusz very well might be so good that he could jump up to No. 2 on this list by the middle of 2009. He is currently in the Arizona Fall League, playing with the Surprirse Rafters, but has yet to pitch as best I can tell.

The San Diego University standout was taken fourth overall by the Orioles, and they paid a pretty penny to get him signed. But when you look at his final college season, you know why: 12-2, 1.71 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.09 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, and just four home runs allowed in 105 innings pitched.

He dominated college ball, and that means he has college shine on his left arm, much like Jake Arrieta has on his right arm. College players are generally better than high school players. That is a scientific fact. The Orioles ponying up the dough to sign Matusz and Wieters in back-to-back years is a GREAT sign from our front office. For years we were throwing money at the wall with guys like Adam Loewen, which turned out bad in every possible respect. Not only did Loewen stink, but he was hurt all the time, we gave him a terrible contract that rushed him into Major League duty, and now he's not even a pitcher anymore.

Put it this way: if Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta were all to pan out (not likely, but not unprecedented), then that's 3/5 of a rotation made out of real arms, not the junk we've been accepting as top prospect pitchers. These guys lay waste to what we've been fed for years.

5. Nolan Reimold, OF (4)

Reimold started very slow, but wound up on the Eastern League post-season All-Stars, hitting .284/.367/.501 with 25 homers and 84 RBI. He finally stayed healthy enough to play 139 games, too, which is a great thing. Right now, he's playing for the Surprise Rafters in the Arizona Fall League.

Reimold is a guy that has earned the chance to compete for a job next spring. Luke Scott is not getting any younger and isn't exactly great shakes to begin with, plus Millar should be gone, which would open up first base or DH. Huff could step in at first and Luke could do the majority of the DHing, with Reimold out in left, giving us a legit young outfield of Markakis, Jones and Reimold. Not bad.

I have no doubt that Reimold could hit in the Majors, at least putting up numbers similar to what Luke did this season. The only thing I still worry about is his ability to stay healthy.

6. Radhames Liz, RHP (3)

Two reasons Radhames Liz stays this high. First, it was his first taste of Major League Baseball, and sometimes guys get shelled. He went out there and did the best he could do. Command is the obvious issue. He has the stuff. I think he's more likely to find MLB success out of the bullpen, but that's not a bad place to be. A player's a player.

Second, the system takes a significant hit after the top five. A lot of guys bit the dust this year due to injury or plain old sucktitude, and Liz's ceiling (ooh!) remains higher than just about all of them.

7. Brandon Erbe, RHP (14)

In 2006, Baseball America ranked Brandon Erbe ninth in the O's system. In 2007, they had him up to No. 2, and 78th in baseball. In 2008, he was down to tenth following a disastrous season at Frederick (6.26 ERA, 119.1 IP).

He came back strong, and he's still only 21 in December (Erbe, in fact, is one of the unlucky few born on Christmas).

Erbe improved across the board in another go-'round with the Keys this year. His strikeouts were up (8.37 to 9.02 per nine), his walks down (4.68 to 2.99), hits allowed down (9.58 to 7.17), and his ERA dipped to 4.30 with a 1.13 WHIP, which was down .45 points. His ERA was only that high, actually, because he struggled with gopher balls: he allowed 21 in 150 innings.

Hope is rekindled...

8. David Hernandez, RHP (15)

Hernandez's first season in Bowie was a fine success, as he went 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA. The only concern is that he's still pretty much a fastball/slider guy, and his command is quite shaky, with 71 walks in 141 innings. On the plus side, he struck out 166, and was tough to hit (112 hits allowed). Might end up a bullpen guy, but could be a really good one, too.

9. Tony Butler, LHP (9)

Butler went on the Delmarva DL for good in June, after putting up a 4.42 ERA in 55 innings. What is very nice to see is a tremendously low walk rate, at 1.80 BB/9. His strikeout totals weren't amazing (7.20/9), but the control is the key. He's still a nice prospect as he doesn't turn 21 until November, but guys getting hurt this young is always a maroon flag if not one that is blood red.

10. Billy Rowell, 3B (2)

Before we get into why Billy Rowell slips a full eight spots and why you should probably burn your hopes and dreams, let's sum up his season with honesty very quickly.

Summary, Billy Rowell, 2008: Rowell got hurt early on and stayed out longer than expected, wound up playing just 111 games, and when he wasn't hurt, he sucked. Rowell hit .248/.315/.348 with seven home runs, not exactly befitting the ninth pick of the 2006 draft, and the man that was supposed to be our future at third or first base.

Outside of 42 games with Bluefield in 2006, Rowell hasn't hit for any power, racking up just 16 home runs the last two seasons, neither of which he played as much as you'd like (91 games in 2007, 111 this year). He was way below expectations at Delmarva, and way below expectations again this season with Frederick.

I keep him this high, honestly, only out of Amber-style blind faith. I want Rowell to turn it around in 2009 and get fast-tracked to the majors. One reason is that Melvin Mora can't stand over there forever, and we can't be relying on Melvin's second half sonic boom to carry over as he inches toward 40.

It all begs the question: is Rowell working hard or hardly working?! A-ha-ha-ha! Classic.

11. Troy Patton, LHP (12)

With the great bright spots at the top, Rowell's freefall and Patton moving up a spot despite not pitching really should explain the type of season the Orioles system had outside of a decent-looking draft. Troy Patton did not throw a single pitch as he was out with a labrum injury, and who knows if he'll return any good or not? But I have more faith that Troy Patton will contribute to the Major League team in a positive way than I do anyone below him.

Put that in your pipe and give it a think. Like I said, improvements in recent years or not, this system takes a nosedive after the top five.

12. Garrett Olson, LHP (7)

Not only did Garrett Olson stink up the joint something awful (9-10, 6.65/1.73, 62 BB in 132 IP) filling in for Adam Loewen this season, but he rubbed a lot of folks the wrong way, too, seeming to be totally indifferent to his struggles. Asked if his bad season got to him, Olson said, "Not really," or whatever.

Maybe that's a good thing, though. Maybe he figures you take your lumps and you figure out how to fix it. Maybe he spends the entire off-season working on fixing it. Maybe he spends it in Aruba punching judges and we can really start to hate him.

I'm not in Garrett Olson's mind. I don't know what he's thinking. I do know his stock took a serious hit this year, because struggling is one thing, but he got his ass kicked.

13. Brandon Snyder, 1B (13)

2005 first-round pick Brandon Snyder remains a personal favorite of mine. John Sickels regarded Snyder, then a catcher, as the best high school hitter in that draft, so I was thrilled that the Orioles signed him. Imagine if Snyder, Rowell, Wieters and Matusz had all panned out as expected. Woof! Then again, that's why I think talking about securing draft position in a losing year is pointless. You get more Snyders and Rowells, guys facing uphill battles very quickly, than you do guys like Wieters that come in and kill everything thrown at them.

Snyder had a solid year for Frederick, hitting .315/.358/.490 with 13 homers and 80 RBI (435 AB), but his power is going to have to improve for him to be a serious idea for first base. That or he needs to figure out how to have the plate discipline of Mark Grace, which is not looking likely with his 83-to-29 K-to-BB totals.

14. Bradley Bergesen, RHP (-)

Sickels had Bergesen ranked 17th in January. He just missed my cut in April. He had a really nice year at Bowie, going 15-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, and he walked next to no one in 148 innings, just 1.64 per nine. The catch? He only struck out 4.38 per nine. Not good, but results should speak, I think, and he made things happen this year.

15. Chorye Spoone, RHP (8)

The Prospect Lord giveth (mass improvements all around in 2007), and He taketh away (mass collapse and only nine starts in 2008). Spoone was back to posting the junk numbers he did in 2005-06 before going down for the year, which is a double negative. His 2007 might be a career year.

16. Xavier Avery, OF (-)

A two-sport superstar in Georgia high school athletics, Avery was a four-star running back with a verbal commitment to the University of Georgia. Instead, he opted to sign with the Orioles, who took him in the second round of this year's draft.

Still just 18, Avery is very, very raw, as you'd probably expect, but he's a ceiling guy, and his ceiling is pretty good. He ran a 6.4 60-yard dash and has been clocked at 3.95 seconds from home plate to first base. He has what is called "plus-plus" speed, and his natural power is good, too. Obviously it'll take a while for these things to come into play, so don't look for him moving up through the system too quickly.

There's a good chance Avery will flat-out stink and it'll turn out he should've stuck with football. But for the Orioles to give a guy money when the University of Georgia is ready to have him come play football, that says there's something special that somebody sees. That often means zilch at the end of the day, but I hope he made the right choice. His arm as described as "suited for left field," which means his arm sucks. Ever see a running back throw? Not pretty.

17. Hayden Penn, RHP (10)

Penn stays here only because there aren't that many players to put on the list at this point, and because he'd probably do no worse, realistically, than Liz or Olson did this season. Of course, the Orioles thought enough of those guys to give them the shots, and Penn didn't see one inning of action in Baltimore this year.

Anyone still hanging on to 2004-05 when Penn's name meant something, give it up. He's just another AAA pitcher with AAA upside (4.79/1.45 in 100 IP at Norfolk).

18. L.J. Hoes, 2B (-)

I like your name, young man! Hoes was signed to play ball at the University of North Carolina, and opted to sign with Baltimore instead. He's described in every article you can find on him as a hell of a nice guy, a hard worker, a team player, blah blah blah. He played his high school ball with highly-successful St. John's (Washington, D.C.), as an outfielder and starting pitcher. The Orioles see him as a second baseman. In brief time with the Gulf Coast Orioles this year, Hoes was was a walk mo-sheen, putting up a .416 OBP and going 10-for-10 in steal attempts. He hit .308 and slugged .390.

19. Jason Berken, RHP (-)

Again, it's just about results. 25-year old Berken went 12-4 (3.58/1.23) with Bowie this season. It's worth something, but he's not a real prospect.

20. Bob McCrory (20)

As always: has the stuff, needs to throw strikes. He was horrible in a brief stint with the Orioles this year. If he can learn some f-ing command, he could be a valuable f-ing addition to the f-ing bullpen. C'mon, Bob.

To the dearly departed...

First off was Tim Bascom (RHP, 11), a guy I liked a lot because of his story, but who really stunk up the joint in Frederick this season, with a 5.78 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 95 innings. Just after him was Pedro Beato (RHP, 16), a guy John Sickels had at #10 in January but that I simply didn't fully buy. Beato, 21, had a 5.85/1.57 line with 4.73 K/9 in 97 innings with the Keys, going 4-10. As Sickels put it in August, the two of them had a contest to see who could suck more. In the end, a pretty dead even race, and both are toast until something dramatic happens.

Scott Moore (IF, T-17) and Mike Costanzo (3B, T-17) both had awful years at Norfolk. Moore hit .247/.321/.408 with seven home runs, while Costanzo hit .261/.333/.395 with his usual massive amount of strikeouts, and just 11 home runs, a 16-homer drop from 2007 at AAA with the Phillies. Both are 24, and neither are really prospects, and really, neither ever really were. They were C-grade guys who look like they've probably hit the wall.

Matt Albers (RHP, 18) is off because he's hurt. I liked what we saw of him for the most part this year.

Randor Bierd (RHP, 19) just isn't anything special. His upside is less than that of McCrory, which was the tiebreaker. Both could be fine spare parts in the bullpen.

Note: Olson and Liz may not meet your guidelines for "prospect" at this point, given how much they pitched in Baltimore this year, but I think this should be a loose interpretation. Both guys were forced into their roles -- there was literally no one else available with Loewen out and Trachsel thankfully sent on down the river. There is hardly any guarantee that either man is with the Birds in 2009.

Other guys, notes, and statistical crapola...

If you're wondering where Oscar Salazar is, the answer is he's 30 years old.

Kam Mickolio is still a fun idea at 6-foot-9, but tall doesn't get me all aflutter the way it does some people. Years of Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen will do that to you. He struggled with Bowie and struggled in September with the O's. He's still very raw considering he's from Montana. (That's not a knock on Montana, it's just he never played much baseball.)

21-year old Delmarva second baseman and whiny, self-important singer/songwriter Ryan Adams hit .308/.367/.462 with 11 homers this season. Not a bad line. He also made 52 errors.

The rest of the O's 2008 draft class: OF Kyle Hudson (University of Illinois), SS Greg Miclat (University of Virginia), and LHP Rick Zagone (University of Missouri). Zagone tore the hell out of the New York-Penn league in 65 innings, going 7-1 with a .289 ERA and 10.88 strikeouts per nine against 1.93 walks per nine.

Ex-Ohio State Buckeye (puke) Matt Angle will have fans in every minor league city he plays, I bet. Born in Columbus (puke), Angle hit .287/.385/.379 for Delmarva. He was also 22 years old. He has zero power, and though he runs well (37-for-48 steal attempts), his Major League future probably rests in the role of National League guy that pinch-hits for the pitcher, tries to draw a walk, and then maybe makes something happen on the basepaths.

No, I will not rank Lou Montanez. He is 27 in December and remains a massive bust. He has had exactly one season of pro ball that has met or surpassed expectations. It was this one.

23-year old pitcher Mick Mattaliano threw 43 innings of relief for Delmarva, putting up a 1.24 ERA. He went to Norfolk for seven innings and got shelled. Whoops!

My personal favorite player in the world, Cole McCurry, stunk with Delmarva (6.51 ERA, 56 IP) but tore up Aberdeen (2.76 ERA, 81 IP).

Kennard hit just .257/.323/.350 in 140 AB.

Rays 11, Orioles 6: Hey, Evelyn...

SC — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 05:32:39 -0000

(NSFW, y'all. Little bit o' cursin'.)

Hey, pitching staff? Can we ask you a question? Have you got a moment?

May Matt Wieters come to Baltimore and be our Dottie Hinson.