SB Nation - Jeff Niemann

Top 30 Starts of 2009 - Part 6

Andy Hellicksonstine — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 12:00:19 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

Longoria: Dude, relax, Andy H just said you had the two best starts of the year. Garza: F*$# YEAH ::spit:: (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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This is it, for those of you that have been patiently waiting to see the best Rays pitching performances of the year. If you read through the last installment, then you noticed that I have moved to a scoring system. Let's take a look at the standings:

Shields	104
Niemann	61
Price	60
Kazmir	40
Garza	29
Davis	17
Sonnanstine	14

James Shields has been running away with it based on the quantity as well as the quality of his starts. Jeff Niemann has also had a lot of starts in here, but less so of the top-tier quality. Wade Davis has had a few appearances, which is surprising since he only had a few total on the year, but when we think of great performances we think of Matt Garza. So far he has had three starts looked at (7, 28, & 29). I found this somewhat surprising, because as some of you know I track game-to-game FIP and wOBA for pitchers to reach an estimate of deserved wins. Matty tore up the wOBA wins approaching 20 and was a tick behind Shields on the FIP-side. Well, if you're a fan of The Crane, then you won't be disappointed as he comes on like gangbusters here. First up however...

5) James Shields at New York Mets on June 20 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.00

2.01

0.155

This was before the Mets became a full blown AAAA team so you can't chalk it up totally to that, but only allowing three guys on the bases is quite the achievement over 7 full innings. Broken record alert, but when James keeps the ball in the yard, he is as close to an ace as we've ever had. He needed to be on that day as he was facing Johan Santana, whom is a certified ace and bound to give the Rays fits being weird-handed with a great change. After giving up the run in the 2nd he would mow down 16 of the next 17 before being yanked for Mountain Man Dan Wheeler to start the 8th. I like that Shieldsy only threw 5 cutters on the night, only one of which was in the zone:

via brooksbaseball.net

He was basically 2:1 on the fastball:changeup and closer to 3:1 on the fastball:curve/slider. This is what I like to see out of James. He was able to work ahead throwing 66% strikes on the night with his change leading the way in whiffs. See the highlights link above for grown-men looking like little leaguers.

4) Wade Davis at Baltimore on September 17 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.59

0.185

Wade was told that if he threw strikes that it would come, so as he eased their pain, he was able to go the distance. He didn't have a catch with his ghost of a father after the game, but Wade did give us a glimpse of the future in an absolute gem of a performance. Coming off a brilliant debut, and a thorough thrashing in his sophomore start, most folks weren't sure what to make of Big Nasty (Yes, I am coining this nickname for Mr. Davis). They were rewarded with a CGSO. The fastball sat at 92 while issuing 5 whiffs (10 total on 124 pitches). He threw a ton of fastball, both in, and out of the zone, but his curve, slider, and cutter he had great control of throwing a combined 34 strikes on 44 pitches with 5 whiffs. The video above shows just how filthy his breaking ball is. I like his fastball, because when it's on it has that same ride that Garza gets off the plate to lefties. They can either leave it there and take the occasional strike or foul it off and then get fooled on the breaking ball.

via brooksbaseball.net

That speed chart is absolutely gorgeous. I want to make babies with it. Big Nasty's hardest pitch came in the low 120's while maintaining velocity throughout the game. Granted it was his 3rd start, but he had pitched all year at Durham, so it's not like he was completely fresh. At the moment, he compares very much to Matty Garza, in my mind. A little bigger, the fastball isn't quite as good, but the bendy stuff brings women to their knees. Wade reminds us that with the death of one season comes the hope and promise at the birth of the next. Personally, I can't wait to see him next year.

3) Jeff Niemann vs. Kansas City Royals on June 3 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.48

0.084

The Big Nyquil barely had to break a sweat in earning his 1st CGSO of the season on a two-hitter. He threw his fastball and slider for strikes, while dropping his curve out of the zone on his way to garnering 12 whiffs. In his 9 innings of work, the most pitches he threw in an inning was 14 in the 5th with 4 separate innings of 9 pitches. That is straight dominance averaging 11 pitches/inning against a Major League ballclub (OK the Royals.) I love the following chart:

via i273.photobucket.com

I have shaded the inner-part of the plate because you can see that Niems was just pounding fastballs in there. He threw a couple of back-door sliders, and two curves, but for the most part he was blowing it by righties on the inner 1/8 of the plate. Speaking of the fastball, he threw 3 of his first 10 pitches over 94 MPH, before settling in to sit at 92. Congrats on a phenomenal start, Jeff, let's see more of these in 2010.

2) Matt Garza at Toronto on July 24th Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.15

0.167

Here's a Matt Garza performance that shows why I'm not a fan of looking at R/ER as the sole indicator of a great performance. Yes, he gave up two runs. After retiring the first six batters, in the bottom of the 3rd, Garz gave up a lead-off single to Rios whom managed to get to 2nd on a throwing error by Longo. Garza induced a flyout to center and then one to right, in which, Rios moved over to 3rd. A 2-out single by Scutaro brought the run in and a double by the next batter, an on-fire Aaron Hill, led to the second run coming in.

Now think about this for a minute. Garza gave up two singles and a double in the inning and in the other 8 he only gave up another single and a double with no walks on the entire game. My point is that I don't think 8 brilliant innings should be completely thrown out because of one inning where he got a little nicked. This same thing can be applied to James Shields. In a typical 7 inning performance from James he will have 4-5 outstanding innings, 1 clunker, and 1-2 where he has to work himself out of trouble. Major League hitters are so good at making adjustments that virtually every pitcher will get touched here and there. The good ones find ways to minimize the damage and then keep their pitch counts down in other innings, as Matty did throwing 13 COMBINED pitches in the 5th and 6th.

How pretty is this:

via brooksbaseball.net

From pitch 90 on, he through all but 4 fastballs while virtually linearly increasing his velocity until the end. Garza is a stud because this is a common theme with him. He can bring ched whenever he wants including late in the game. On the game, he got 10 whiffs throwing mostly the fastball (72%) and the slider (16%). If you watched the video above, then you saw that his change was a devastating weapon, despite only being thrown 6 times. I saw two guys just frozen by it's unexpectedness and another trying to cool off the fans with his mighty swing-and-miss.

A Longo two-run double in the top of the 10th allowed Maddon to turn the ball over to the Iceman. Garza's day was finished, but he still picked up the win. I found this pretty interesting:

via i273.photobucket.com

I count 5 K's in the upper-left hand portion of the quadrant, while there is a double, a single, a lineout and most of the other decent contact in the overlap of the 2 zones. Not surprising that when you throw it down the middle guys are going to get wood (on it). I really like all the contact (or K's) that he got on the fringes of the strike zone. Even the best stuff means nothing if you can't control AND COMMAND it. It looks like on this day, Matt Garza had great stuff and knew how to use it.

1) Matt Garza vs. Boston Red Sox on April 30 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.67

0.93

0.068

This shall forever be known as the "Jacoby Ellsbury's Parents Should Never Have Met" game. Garz faced one over the minimum due to a nifty double play, that a certain elf-like second sacker didn't appreciate, against one of the best offenses in the Majors that was running on pure ethanol at the time. The video shows guys whiffing, guys getting rocked to sleep, and a bunch of grown men taking half cuts and check swings, the ultimate white flag. Matty didn't throw a change, relying on the fastball (75% usage, 7.4% whiffs), slider (15% usage, 25% whiffs), and curveball (10%).

via i273.photobucket.com

Now I'm no artist, so the ovals aren't exactly a bench-marked size to match with all these other graphs, but I see one pitch, YES ONE, that's in the overlap area of this chart. Interestingly, using the outcomes chart below, it looks like that lone slider was a strikeout. Perhaps this is an example of game theory, in that, he hadn't gone to that well all day, and the batter was stunned when he saw a beautiful slider nestle it's way right in there. Stumbling upon this way to look at pitches just today, I can't confidently say anything broadly, but my guess would be that if you stay out of that center diamond, you're going to find great success. Brooks has Garza's fastball moving right-to-left 2.69 inches and riding 11.55 inches up, compared to a normal ball. That can help explain all those fastball in (to righties) and up in that upper-left hand quadrant. I only see two fastballs in the zone below the 2 foot line (Pedroia's eye-line if it helps you to visualize) with many curves out of the zone. Though he didn't get any whiffs, using these two starts I think you can see a pattern where Garz throws the slider for strikes and tries to get whiffs with the curve out of the zone. This has to create a synergistic reaction where the batter sees bendy stuff and can't form an opinion on whether it'll be in the zone or not, just based on pitch type.

Without the shading this time, you can see that The Crane was living on the fringes of the plate for the deciding pitch of most PA's:

via brooksbaseball.net

Much like the #2 start on the countdown, Matt had over-whelming stuff on this night, but he also used it correctly. He won't always sit at 92.7, touching 95 with the heater, but if Matt can throw to the corners and live on the fringes of the plate (assuming competent umpiring, always a crapshoot there) he can take that next level in 2010. We've seen absolute brilliance from Matt Garza on many occasions, but his good numbers have kind of stagnated in the good range. Looking at starts like these last two, he has all the weapons to get himself into the great level of starters. For the team's sake, I hope that this upcoming season is the one where he takes that step forward to become the borderline ace that we've only seen glimpses of in the past.

This concludes the top-30 starts of 2009. I hope you enjoyed my labor of love. Here are the final standings for our pitchers:

Shields

Niemann

Garza

Price

Davis

Kazmir

Sonnanstine

130

Pretty clear who our number 1 starter is, whether you agree with his performance or now, James Shields is a baller of the highest order. In 2009 Niemann and Garza appear to be competent #2's with Price a clear #3 starter. Kazmir and Sonnanstine were pretty much a drag on the entire pitching staff, but luckily one's gone and the other is already pumping iron and running steps. The WILD CARD! here is Wade Davis. We saw some awesome stuff, albeit in a small sample. If he can match what Niemann or Price gave us in 09, while the other two continue to progress, we're looking at a pretty filthy starting rotation.

As always, thanks to Baseball-reference.com, brooksbaseball.net, and MLB.com, now that we are into the worst part of the calendar year, something that I find interesting is to go on MLB.com and watch some of their videos. Find a player you like and they will run one-after-another throughout the season. So many games get played that it's easy to forget about some of the better plays that were made. It's free-of-charge, and I've only seen about one advertisement per 100 videos.

Don't Sleep on David Price

FreeZorilla — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:52 -0000

by Bill Kostroun - AP

David Price has seemingly gone incognito from the public expectations.

View full size photo »

It sure seems strange to be writing this. A year ago, David Price was on the cover of every pre-season baseball preview. The former #1 overall pick's triumphant pose following the 2008 ALCS was etched into history and people were projecting him as the 2009 staff ace. DRaysBay urged caution with the two-pitch lefthander, but when Price began the season in Durham, fans mercilessly were calling the Rays cheap. Then, David Price debuted and he pretty much struck out or walked every batter while struggling to make it into the fifth inning. Meanwhile Jeff Niemann emerged as a surprise rookie of the year candidate along with Brett Anderson of Oakland and Rick Porcello of Detroit. Very quietly, Price seemed to reinvent himself over the 2nd half of the season, both walking and striking out fewer hitters. However, his ratio was improving as was his ground ball percentage. Over the final two months of the season, price finished with a GB% north of 44%. He also began throwing his changeup, his missing third pitch, with more frequency and greater confidence. The change actually ended the season as his top-ranked pitch according to linear weights Runs Above Average per 100 pitches at .88. Below is a comparison of the Tale of Two Prices:

	FIP	ERA	BB/9	K/9	BA	OBP	SLG
1st Half	5.31	4.70	6.3	9.6	0.241	0.360	0.429
2nd Half	4.37	4.27	2.5	5.9	0.241	0.296	0.380

They profile like entirely different pitchers. Let's see how 2^nd half Price fared against the seasonal numbers of Anderson, Porcello, and Niemann:

	Age	FIP	xFIP	ERA	BB/9	K/9	BA	OBP	SLG	GB%
Rick Porcello	20	4.77	4.52	3.96	2.7	4.7	0.267	0.323	0.416	54.2%
Brett Anderson	21	3.69	3.8	4.06	2.3	7.7	0.265	0.312	0.399	50.9%
Jeff Niemann	26	4.07	4.74	3.94	2.9	6.2	0.266	0.33	0.399	40.5%
David Price	24	4.59	4.72	4.42	3.8	7.2	0.241	0.319	0.397	41.5%
Price 2nd half	24	4.37	N/A	4.27	2.5	5.9	0.241	0.296	0.380	N/A

The three-pitch Price measures up nicely with the rest of this crowd. Of course, other rookies may also have improved as the season progressed. There's a bias that favors Porcello and Anderson in that they pitch more frequently against weaker hitters. Below you will see the average BB and K%'s of the teams in each division:

	BB%	K%	K/BB
AL East	9.76%	19.32%	1.98
AL Central	8.86%	19.68%	2.22
AL West	8.13%	19.95%	2.45

There is a 1.63% difference between in walks between the AL East and West. This does not even take into account some of the hitter friendly ballparks of the East. What if we were to look at how each pitcher fared vs. each division sorted by FIP (small sample size alert)?:

	FIP	IP	K/9	BB/9
Niemann AL Central	3.13	54.4	7.11	1.49
Anderson AL Central	3.18	45.4	8.13	2.38
Price AL Central	3.27	29.3	9.22	3.69
Anderson AL West	3.66	70	7.07	2.19
Anderson AL East	4.18	51	7.94	2.29
Porcello Central	4.56	77.3	4.54	2.45
Niemann AL East	4.61	63.9	5.92	3.8
Niemann AL West	4.72	47.3	5.71	3.04
Price AL West	4.81	23.6	8.01	6.1
Price AL East	4.93	57.7	6.24	2.96
Porcello East	5.08	31.4	4.59	3.44
Porcello West	5.91	38.4	5.39	2.34

77 innings in the weak Central saved Porcello as his FIP was north of 5 against the rest of the American League. The sensational Anderson clearly comes out the best as he was the top dog against the East and West, and placed 2^nd in the Central. One important caveat: Each pitcher faced each team a different amount of times. Price was heavily penalized in the West with all 26.3 innings coming against Texas and Anaheim. Had he had the chance to face Seattle and/or Oakland, it is very likely he would have ranked higher.

I feel pretty comfortable projecting Price to rise to the top or at least alongside Anderson as the best pitcher in this crop. As he continues to gain confidence in his third offering and rediscover his prized slider, I would expect his K rate to improve again while maintaining a lower walk rate. Don't make the mistake of letting David Price be the forgotten man of the rotation.

A boatload of postseason awards

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:41:50 -0000

Because I've been away for a few days I've fallen behind on a couple of things, including the unveiling of the SBN and IBWAA postseason awards. My apologies. Let's start with the SBN Awards:

If you read any of the other SBN baseball sites, you may have seen some of these, but if you don't, they're new to you. Two BCB writers contributed to each of the NL awards: I had one vote, and TheJay had the other. I'll publish my ballot below the results, and leave it up to TheJay to decide if he wants to post his.

SBN NL Manager of the Year:

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Jim Tracy	Colorado Rockies	24	1	2	125
2	Tony LaRussa	St. Louis Cardinals	3	7	10	46
3	Fredi Gonzalez	Florida Marlins	2	6	5	33
4	Joe Torre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	9	2	29
5	Charlie Manuel	Philadelphia Phillies	-	3	5	14
6	Bruce Bochy	San Francisco Giants	1	1	1	9
7	Bobby Cox	Atlanta Braves	-	1	4	7
8	Bud Black	San Diego Padres	-	1	1	4
9	John Russell	Pittsburgh Pirates	-	1	-	3

My ballot:
1. Jim Tracy
2. Fredi Gonzalez
3. Joe Torre

I have no other comment on this award, except this side note: Nine of sixteen NL Managers received at least one vote, meaning more NL managers were acknowledged than not, and yet Ken Macha didn't appear on a single ballot.

SBN NL Rookie of the Year:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tommy Hanson	Atlanta Braves	9	9	6	78
2	J.A. Happ	Philadelphia Phillies	6	9	7	64
3	Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	3	5	54
4	Chris Coghlan	Florida Marlins	7	5	4	54
5	Dexter Fowler	Colorado Rockies	-	3	1	10
6	Randy Wells	Chicago Cubs	-	-	6	6
7	Garrett Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	-	-	5
8	Casey McGehee	Milwaukee Brewers	-	1	2	5
9	Seth Smith	Colorado Rockies	-	1	-	3

My ballot:
1. Tommy Hanson
2. J.A. Happ
3. Casey McGehee

It was a tough year to be an NL Rookie - McGehee's performance might have rated higher in other years, but this season he was overshadowed by a bunch of high-impact players.

SBN NL Cy Young:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	18	13	-	129
2	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	7	64
3	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	4	4	10	42
4	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	5	7	22
5	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	3	4	13
6	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	1	1	4
7	Cliff Lee	Philadephia Phillies	-	-	1	1
8	Jair Jurrjens	Atlanta Braves	-	-	1	1

My ballot:
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Javier Vazquez
3. Adam Wainwright
4. Chris Carpenter
5. Dan Haren

The SBN ballot only asked for three pitchers, but I also voted in the IBWAA awards, which required five. The IBWAA completed their slate of awards today, naming their MVP and Cy Young Award winners for both leagues. Here are their results:

IBWAA NL Manager of the Year:

1. Jim Tracy, Colorado Rockies
2. Joe Torre, Los Angeles Dodgers
3 (tie). Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants
3 (tie). Fredi Gonzalez, Florida Marlins

IBWAA NL Rookie of the Year:

1. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves
2. Chris Coghlan, Florida Marlins
3. J.A. Happ, Philadelphia Phillies

IBWAA NL Comeback Player of the Year:

1. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
2. Troy Tulowitzski, Colorado Rockies
3. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

IBWAA NL Executive of the Year:

1. Dan O'Dowd, Colorado Rockies
2. John Mozeliak, St. Louis Cardinals
3. Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers

IBWAA NL Cy Young:

1. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
2. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
4. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins
5. Javier Vazquez, Atlanta Braves

IBWAA NL Most Valuable Player:

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
3. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins
4. (tie) Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
4. (tie) Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
6. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
7. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
8. Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
10. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

The SBN MVP award balloting will be unveiled tomorrow. Follow the jump for the AL awards for both SBN and the IBWAA.

IBWAA Cy Young and MVP Awards have yet to be announced.

Meanwhile, in the AL:

SBN AL Manager of the Year:

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Mike Scioscia	Los Angeles Angels	9	8	3	72
2	Ron Gardenhire	Minnesota Twins	9	5	1	61
3	Don Wakamatsu	Seattle Mariners	6	3	8	47
4	Joe Girardi	New York Yankees	2	4	2	24
5	Ron Washington	Texas Rangers	1	4	4	21
6	Terry Francona	Boston Red Sox	1	1	3	11
7	Jim Leyland	Detroit Tigers	-	2	4	10
8	Joe Maddon	Tampa Bay Rays	-	1	1	4
9	Ozzie Guillen	Chicago White Sox	-	-	1	1
10	Trey Hillman	Kansas City Royals	-	-	1	1

SBN AL Rookie of the Year:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Elvis Andrus	Texas Rangers	6	9	6	63
2	Andrew Bailey	Oakland Athletics	11	1	3	61
3	Jeff Niemann	Tampa Bay Rays	3	5	3	33
4	Rick Porcello	Detroit Tigers	2	7	2	33
5	Brett Anderson	Oakland Athletics	5	1	3	31
6	Gordon Beckham	Chicago White Sox	1	2	8	19
7	Nolan Reimold	Baltimore Orioles	1	-	1	6
8	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	3	6
9	Brad Bergesen	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	-	3
10	Ricky Romero	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3
11	Travis Snider	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3

SBN AL Cy Young:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	28	1	-	143
2	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	17	6	57
3	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	8	9	33
4	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	1	2	11	22
5	C.C. Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	1	2	5
6	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	1	1

IBWAA AL Manager of the Year:
1. Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota Twins
2. Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Joe Girardi (New York Yankees)

IBWAA AL Rookie of the Year:
1. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
2. Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
3. Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Rays

IBWAA AL Comeback Player of the Year:
1. Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays
2. Russell Branyan, Seattle Mariners
3. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

IBWAA AL Executive of the Year:
1. Brian Cashman, New York Yankees
2. Tony Reagins, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers

IBWAA AL Cy Young:
1. Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
3. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
4. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
5. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays

IBWAA AL Most Valuable Player:
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
2. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
3. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
4. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
6. Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
7. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
8. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
9. (tie) Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays
9. (tie) Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox

SB Nation Awards: 2009 American League Rookie of the Year

Jesse — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:16:21 -0000

Next round of the year's awards!

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Elvis Andrus	Texas Rangers	6	9	6	63
2	Andrew Bailey	Oakland Athletics	11	1	3	61
3	Jeff Niemann	Tampa Bay Rays	3	5	3	33
4	Rick Porcello	Detroit Tigers	2	7	2	33
5	Brett Anderson	Oakland Athletics	5	1	3	31
6	Gordon Beckham	Chicago White Sox	1	2	8	19
7	Nolan Reimold	Baltimore Orioles	1	-	1	6
8	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	3	6
9	Brad Bergesen	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	-	3
10	Ricky Romero	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3
11	Travis Snider	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3

I feel pretty good about these results too because, if I remember correctly, I voted pretty closely here too. I want to say I went Andrus-Bailey-Porcello. Beckham's year was underwhelming, Wieters was disappointing considering the hype and, as the tally shows, there were really only two choices for top pick.

My only question: RICK PORCELLO IS JUST 20 YEARS OLD!

Okay, so it's not a question...

Poll

Of the top five, who would get your vote for AL Rookie of the Year?

Elvis Andrus, SS, 20 yrs, 541 PA, 17 2B, 6 HR, 33/39 SB, .267/.329/.373

57 votes

Andrew Bailey, CL, 25 yrs, 83.1 IP, 91 K, 1.84 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

58 votes

Jeff Niemann, SP, 26 yrs, 30 GS, 180.2 IP, 125 K, 3.94 ERA, 1.35 ERA

9 votes

Rick Porcello, SP, 20 yrs, 31 GS, 170.2 IP, 89 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

69 votes

Brett Anderson, SP, 21 yrs, 30 GS, 175.1 IP, 150 K, 4.06 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

17 votes

210 votes | Poll has closed

2009 SBNation Awards: Rookie Of The Year

Al — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:00:40 -0000

by Nam Y. Huh - AP

Randy Wells had a fine rookie year and finished sixth in SBN rookie balloting.

View full size photo »

Count me as one of those surprised at the SBN Rookie of the Year balloting. Neither J.A. Happ nor Chris Coghlan, the two players named at the top of the BCB ballots, won. Tommy Hanson is a deserving recipient, no doubt, but I was sure that Happ was going to win. The third-place vote I gave Randy Wells is, admittely, a homer pick.

The AL balloting, for which BCB had no vote, was very close, with only two points separating the top two. If I did have a vote for the AL ROY, it would have gone to Gordon Beckham.

BCB ballots:

Al: 1) J.A. Happ 2) Tommy Hanson 3) Randy Wells      
Mike: 1) Chris Coghlan 2) J.A. Happ 3) Tommy Hanson

National League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tommy Hanson	Atlanta Braves	9	9	6	78
2	J.A. Happ	Philadelphia Phillies	6	9	7	64
3	Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	3	5	54
4	Chris Coghlan	Florida Marlins	7	5	4	54
5	Dexter Fowler	Colorado Rockies	-	3	1	10
6	Randy Wells	Chicago Cubs	-	-	6	6
7	Garrett Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	-	-	5
8	Casey McGehee	Milwaukee Brewers	-	1	2	5
9	Seth Smith	Colorado Rockies	-	1	-	3

American League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Elvis Andrus	Texas Rangers	6	9	6	63
2	Andrew Bailey	Oakland Athletics	11	1	3	61
3	Jeff Niemann	Tampa Bay Rays	3	5	3	33
4	Rick Porcello	Detroit Tigers	2	7	2	33
5	Brett Anderson	Oakland Athletics	5	1	3	31
6	Gordon Beckham	Chicago White Sox	1	2	8	19
7	Nolan Reimold	Baltimore Orioles	1	-	1	6
8	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	3	6
9	Brad Bergesen	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	-	3
10	Ricky Romero	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3
11	Travis Snider	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3

2009 SBN Rookie of the Year Award

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:00:37 -0000

The first legitimate shot at a Ray winning ...

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Elvis Andrus	Texas Rangers	6	9	6	63
2	Andrew Bailey	Oakland Athletics	11	1	3	61
3	Jeff Niemann	Tampa Bay Rays	3	5	3	33
4	Rick Porcello	Detroit Tigers	2	7	2	33
5	Brett Anderson	Oakland Athletics	5	1	3	31
6	Gordon Beckham	Chicago White Sox	1	2	8	19
7	Nolan Reimold	Baltimore Orioles	1	-	1	6
8	Matt Wieters	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	3	6
9	Brad Bergesen	Baltimore Orioles	-	1	-	3
10	Ricky Romero	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3
11	Travis Snider	Toronto Blue Jays	-	1	-	3

At least he finished well ahead of Rick Porcello. I'm a bit amused (disturbed?) at how many first place votes Andrew Bailey received and how few Brett Anderson received. I mean, yeah ERA, but come on.

Matt Garza's Slider is Filthy

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:01:49 -0000

These are all pitches thrown at least 200 times (except in Wade Davis' case, the limit was 50). Note: Whiff% is (Swinging Strikes/Total Pitches)*100 and rounded to two decimal points.

To avoid making this a data dump, here's some commentary:

James Shields doesn't have wowing stuff. If you've watched him since 2006 then the newness factor has also wore off. In ways he's undervalued by his own fan base because when watching him few things amaze you. He's a workhouse, a pretty dependable one, but he throws a fastball that averages a little over 90 MPH and an assortment of other pitches. Somehow, someway, Shields has three pitches within the top six. The change-up that made him, a curve, and his cutter. His slider and other fastballs rank far lower and seem to contribute to his so-so reputation. It doesn't help that when he seems to miss with those pitches they wind up in the sky and land far away either.
Matt Garza has the most contactless pitch on staff. The pitches people really know him for - his hard heat and knee-buckling curve - are less impressive. This seems odd.
Wade Davis is just as human as anyone else in this list, he just looks better while pitching. Small sample size and all, I'm not sure how he can possess this stuff and have such mediocre whiff rates in Durham.
Jeff Niemann uses his fastball something like 70% of the time. This is bad because A) he becomes predictable and B) it's his worst pitch. Unsurprisingly, it rates near the bottom of the list. Shields has probably never heard of DRB, but please, James, if you're somehow reading this, teach Niemann the ways of working around your fastball.
David Price's change-up was his least hittable pitch. What?

Rookie Review: Jeff Niemann

John Sickels — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 12:00:37 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

Tampa Bay Rays starter Jeff Niemann (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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Rookie Profile: Jeff Niemann

Jeff Niemann was a star pitcher at Rice University, where he formed part of a devastating quartet of starting pitchers along with Phil Humber, Wade Townsend, and Josh Baker. Like many Rice pitchers, he had some arm problems including arthroscopic elbow surgery in 2003, but he was still drafted in the first round in '04, fourth overall. Scouts loved his size, command, and projectability, and while his junior season (3.03, 94/30 K/BB in 80 innings) was less impressive than his sophomore season (17-0, 1.70 ERA, 156/35 K/BB in 137 innings), he wasn't considered an overdraft. He was a late sign and I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2005 book based on his college performance and scouting reports, writing that I liked him a lot due to his 92-97 MPH fastball and nasty slider, but was concerned about his health.

Niemann's pitching time was limited in 2005. He made five starts for Class A Visalia, with a 28/10 K/BB in 20 innings and 12 hits allowed, then pitched in just 10 innings for Double-A Montgomery, with a 14/5 K/BB and seven hits allowed. A pulled groin muscle and a sore shoulder kept him off the mound most of the season. He had fall surgery to correct the shoulder issue. I gave him a Grade B in the 2006 book, noting his combination of stuff and command but continuing to worry about his health status.

The shoulder problem didn't clear as quickly as expected and Niemann pitched just 77 innings for Montgomery in 2006, though they were very effective innings: 2.68 ERA, 84/29 K/BB, 56 hits allowed. He was still hitting 95 MPH and made further progress refining his curveball, slider, and changeup. I moved him back up to Grade B+, though I continued to emphasize the injury risk in the written comment.

Promoted to Triple-A Durham in 2007, Niemann threw 131 innings before his season ended early with more shoulder soreness. His velocity was down from previous standards, mostly in the 90-93 MPH range. His curveball reportedly improved, but there was some slippage with the slider and changeup. He went 12-6, 3.98 with a 123/46 K/BB in 131 innings, allowing 144 hits. In the '08 book I rated him as a Grade B prospect and a possible number three starter, though once again pointing out the injury factor.

Returning to Durham in 2008, Niemann went 9-5, 3.59 with a 128/50 K/BB in 133 innings. He was luckier on the hit front with 101 hits allowed, but otherwise his numbers were similar to the previous season. He got 16 innings of work with the Rays late in the year, posting a 5.06 ERA with a 14/8 K/BB but doing enough to get him in contention for a rotation spot this year. Scouting-wise, 95 MPH was now his peak velocity and he was more often in the 90-93 range. He adopted a splitter-like changeup, and his breaking ball was reportedly sharper than in '08. I gave him a Grade B- in the 2009 book.

Out of options, Niemann had to make the roster this spring or risk being lost on waivers. He earned his spot and kept it, ending up as one of the best rookies in the American League, with a 13-6, 3.94 record, 125/59 K/BB in 181 innings, 185 hits allowed, 4.07 FIP, certainly everything that could have been expected. Stuff-wise, his fastball peaked out at 97 MPH in a few starts, though his average was 91-92 MPH.. His curve, slider, and changeup all appear to be quality offerings.

Niemann never looked out of place this year, and clearly benefited from having two full years of Triple-A experience under his belt. The Rays were certainly careful not to rush him too quickly, granted they had more flexibility to do this than most teams do. Niemann is a quality major league starting pitcher, and the main risk for him remains injury. Indeed, if you look at his velocity data, you will note that his velocity declined late in the year, likely a sign of fatigue. This tracks well with a rise in his WHIP in September, granted the perils of granular sample sizes. 2009 was his career high in innings pitched, and given his previous health problems it would not surprise me to see him have some physical issues in 2010.

If he can avoid major health problems, he seems like a guy who could have one really outstanding season around age 30 or so, with several other years of above average performance before and after. I like him a lot. I just worry about his arm holding up.

Jason Hammel Trade Revisited

Poseidon's Fist — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 16:16:20 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

We very nearly could have had this guy instead of Jason Hammel. Should we be happy with the guy we got?

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It's not always the blockbuster deals that build winners. In fact, it often is not. With the Rockies on the verge of the playoffs, it's a good time to reflect on one of those seemingly innocent little trades that has paid big dividends for Dan O'Dowd this season.

The Pledge

Tampa Bay entered the season with a true embarrassment of riches regarding starting pitching. James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine were locks to make the Opening Day rotation, and 2007 first overall pick David Price was a capable fifth starter at the very least.

But that left out two talented right-handers: Jeff Niemann, the fourth overall pick in 2004, and 2002 10th rounder Jason Hammel. Both had exhausted their options and would have to be traded, released or placed on waivers if they were not on the 25-man roster on Opening Day. The Rays elected to keep David Price in AAA to start the year, forcing them to move only one of the pitchers.

As Spring Training neared an end, there was no clear winner for the fifth starter role, though rumors abounded that the Rockies were hoping to trade for Hammel. Niemann was 2-1 with a 6.32 ERA over 15.1 IP in the Grapefruit League, while Hammel was 0-1 with a 3.96 ERA in 25.0 IP. However, the investment the organization had in Niemann worked in his favor.

The Turn

On the final day before the season, the Rays decided to keep their former first-rounder. They traded Hammel to the Rockies for 21-year old pitcher Aneury Rodriguez, who had pitched in High-A Modesto last season. It seemed at the time of the trade, Rowbots seemingly disliked the trade greatly, pining for Niemann instead. Granted, one season is not enough to properly evaluate a trade, but for the sake of argument, should we be happy we landed Hammel instead of a guy who was chosen behind only Matt Bush, Justin Verlander and Phillip Humber in 2004?

Join on the other side to find out.

Jason Hammel finished his season last night, though Jeff Niemann still has a scheduled start Saturday against the Yankees. Still, we'll check out the players' statistics for comparison now anyway. A cursory glance at traditional stats (W/L, ERA, WHIP) suggest Niemann was unquestionably the better pitcher this year. But take a closer look.

	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	FIP	tRA	K/9	K/BB	HR/9	BABIP	GB/FB	wFB	wSL	wCB	WAR	Value
2009 - Jason Hammel	10-8	174.2	4.38	1.39	3.73	4.24	6.75	3.12	0.88	.337	1.51	(10.8)	(1.4)	13.4	3.8	$17.2M

	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	FIP	tRA	K/9	K/BB	HR/9	BABIP	GB/FB	wFB	wSL	wCB	WAR	Value
2009 - Jeff Niemann	12-6	175.2	3.94	1.35	4.09	4.67	6.15	2.07	0.87	.301	1.01	9.7	(1.7)	0.2	3.0	$13.4

The Prestige

Hammel has a better FIP, tRA and WAR. More clearly, he strikes out more and walks les. Quite frankly, the only reason his WHIP and ERA seem higher is due to a much higher batting average on balls in play.

What's fascinating about Hammel though, is that he not only matches up with Niemann extraordinarily well, not only is he arguably the best fifth starter in the game this season, but he ranks near the top of the league in a couple important peripheral statistics.

One knock against Hammel coming to Coors Field was his propensity to give up the long ball, but it just hasn't been a problem with Colorado. The Rockies won 12 of his 15 Coors Field starts and his 0.88 HR/9 is fantastic for a Rockies pitcher - indeed, it is 17th best in the National League. He also has the sixth best curveball value in MLB and accrued the 25th most WAR among all MLB starting pitchers, 14th in the NL. Arguably most exciting, he has the 14th best GB/FB ratio in the bigs. That's a heck of an effort from a guy that couldn't crack two rotations out of spring training.

Now, before anyone messes their pants, I am obliged to point out a couple caveats to these statistics, at least those in comparison to Niemann. Even though Hammel has been forced to pitch at Coors Field, he also has gotten the benefit of Dodger Stadium and PetCo Park, the league's top two pitcher's parks. Niemann, meanwhile, also pitches in a hitter's park, but in his division, only the Toronto Blue Jays play in a park with a factor below 100, and that's just 98/99.

In addition, there is no greater difference in offensive inter-division skill than between the NL West and AL East. Niemann most assuredly has been facing stiffer competition in the opposing batter's box, and on a level playing field, he would grade out probably fairly evenly if not slightly better than Hammel. But at this point, it's essentially like asking whether you'd prefer steak or lobster, at least relative to league average fifth starters. My appetite tends to pitchers with strong GB/FB rates, so even if Niemann and Hammel are essentially even, we got the best guy for Coors Field. In case price is your deciding factor, Hammel made $422k this year, while Niemann received $650k from the Rays.

As for Aneury Rodriguez, it's still too early to guess whether he was too much to give for Hammel. He could conceivably become an ace, though as Rox Girl said in April, "Aneury's ceiling is Jason Hammel" before Hammel's ceiling raised a little this year.

Rodriguez scuffled a little bit when the trade brought a promotion to AA Montgomery, but he adjusted and rebounded well, posting ERAs under 2.60 in June and July. The jury will be out for a few more years, but just for now, here's his AA stats this season.

AA Montgomery	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Aneury Rodriguez	9-11	27	27	0	0	0	0	142.0	121	78	71	17	59	111	4.50	1.26

Will it be a good trade when it's all said and done? Who knows...Aneury and Niemann could become monsters and Hammel's arm could fall off, but as for this year, it looks fantastic. There has been plenty of publicity about Dan O'Dowd's shrewd trade to pick up Jason Marquis, but at just 0.1 WAR below Marquis, there's another Jason trade that ought to help Dan O'Dowd become a finalist for Executive of the Year.

Splitting Jeff Niemann's Season Into Two

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:00:17 -0000

Jeff Niemann is without a doubt the oddest starter on the Rays. He stands a towering 6'9" and weighs somewhere around 280 pounds. Factor in his Texas born and raised lineage and you would fully expect a flamethrower in the mold of Randy Johnson. A record of injury and stress has taken its toll on Niemann's fastball velocity which seemingly sits in the low-90s but has touched the 94-95 range a few times this season. In college he threw with more authority and perhaps less caution.

Niemann's strikeout rates are less Randy Johnson/J.R. Richard and more Chris Young/Mark Hendrickson. That would be the wrong neighborhood for starting pitchers in the land of giants. However, since the all-star break Niemann has seen an increase in strikeouts and a coinciding decrease in walks given. The difference between first and second half Niemann is startling and appears to be two different entities entirely.

In April Niemann nearly went punch-for-punch with opposing batters; striking out 13.3% and walking 11.2%. The difference expanded in May as he posted ratios of 13.2/9.3 but contracted once more in June with figures of 13/10.4. In July Niemann morphed into another being. His strikeout ratio jumped to 17.7% (and was 17% in August and 21.9% thus far in September) and his walk rate lessened to 3.5% (and has since inflated ever so slightly to 5% and 6.1%). These numbers are similar to the ones he produced during two seasons in Durham, as shown here:

2007: 21.2% K, 7.8% uBB

2008: 23.3% K, 9.2% uBB

Those numbers work out to an average of something like 22% K and 8% uBB, which match up with his post-break ratios (19.5%/5.1%) far better than their pre-break counterpart (13.2%/9.6%). Further, Niemann threw 1,330 pitches pre-July and induced only 79 whiffs (5.9% of total pitches thrown) since then he has pitched the baseball 1,383 times and recorded an additional 103 whiffs (7.4% of total pitches thrown); major league average for starting pitchers is in the 7-8% range.

So what's going on here?

As previously stated, Niemann has thrown nearly the same amount of pitches in both of our splits which allows us to compare the percentages of pitch types thrown without worrying about the differences in sample sizes. During the first half Niemann threw 72.9% fastballs, 15.7% curves, 7.7% sliders, and 3.6% change-ups. In the second half Niemann has thrown 71.3% fastballs, 15.3% curves, 9.1% sliders, and 4.1% change-ups. There is minimal difference there, at least when you cluster all of the fastball types together. We know from observation that Niemann has began using a splitter during the season, and look at the graph below (which depicts all of Niemann's second half fastballs). You can clearly make out three clusters: A) the four-seamers up and closest to the y-axis, B) the splitters down and furthest from the y-axis, and C) the two-seamers In the middle of the other two.

Meanwhile here are his first half fastballs:

Notice he shift outward? Either Niemann is the world's tallest manifest destiny expert or he switched his pitches up to include more splitters.

Attempting to classify these further is a pain*. However I did discover that 5.2% of Niemann's fastballs are being whiffed at in the second half, which includes his new pitch, meanwhile only 3.6% were generating swinging strikes in the first half. That shift is nothing to sneeze at and while I cannot fully attribute the movement to the split-finger pitch, you have to wonder if the increase in whiffs is temporary or an indication of a newly found plus-pitch.

Hope for the latter.

---

*Gameday also takes a bit of time to adjust for new pitches in their classification. So it's not as easy as simply checking out the pitched tagged as splitters -- all three of them.