SB Nation - John Jaso

Catcher Alternatives from the Left Side

FreeZorilla — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 09:00:20 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

Kyle Phillips can make right-handed pitchers feel a bit uneasy.

With the departure of Gregg Zaun, it appears the Rays are ready to have Kelly Shoppach catch 120 games or so in 2010.While Shoppach qualifies as serviceable vs right-handed pitching, he excels versus lefties. This should leave the Rays looking for a catcher who can hit from the left side of the dish or at least one has shown the ability to hit either hand adequately. What options are out there? Let's break them down into two categories: internal and external options.

Internal Options

Jose Lobaton

Lobaton is a switch-hitting catcher who was claimed off waivers from the Padres when he was designated for assignment upon acquiring Sean Gallagher from Oakland. The Rays thought enough of Lobaton to keep five catchers on the 40 man roster. The 25 year-old Venezuelan was initially signed as an amateur free agent by the Padres in 2002. Prior to being claimed by the Rays, Lobaton was named the best defensive catcher in the Padres farm system consecutive years. We can probably assume he would at least not be a liability behind the plate.

As for the stick, Lobaton had a brief hiccup at AAA in 2008 with the Padres with a slash of .241/.292/.353 in 148 PA. At all previous levels Lobaton displayed good on-base skills consistently walking comfortably over 10% of the time. Upon being claimed by the Rays he was sent to AA Montgomery where he had a nice line of .262/.376/.452. The previous year in AA he OPSed .760.

The key with Lobaton is he shows much better from the left side of the plate. If we isolate his LHB vs RHP appearances his numbers look like this over the past three years.

Year	Level	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
2007	A+	314	0.269	0.354	0.432	0.163	11.5%	22.6%
2008	AA	287	0.271	0.347	0.457	0.186	11.2%	22.7%
2009	AA	87	0.280	0.360	0.493	0.213	10.3%	19.5%
2009	AAA	107	0.284	0.352	0.432	0.148	9.4%	20.6%

John Jaso

Jaso is a 26 year-old left-handed hitting catcher who was rapidly on the rise through the Rays farm system after being selected in the 12th round of the draft in 2003 by the Rays out of high school. He was added to the 40 man roster prior the the 2007 rule five draft. The biggest roadblock for Jaso has been his defense. However, he did have his worst offensive year at the plate in 2009. If there is to be a time for Jaso, in the organization, there probably won't be a better opportunity than now. Jaso has displayed decent power and excellent on-base skills throughout the minors with his BB:K ratio floating around one, always excellent for a double digit walker. He also does not find himself crippled by the sight of a lefty on the mound with a career OBP of .360 vs LHP. Jaso's #'s vs RHP splits can be found below:

Year	Level	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
2007	AA	317	0.311	0.408	0.489	0.178	13.9%	11.7%
2008	AA	280	0.267	0.398	0.409	0.142	17.5%	9.6%
2008	AAA	78	0.278	0.333	0.514	0.236	7.7%	9.0%
2009	AAA	307	0.261	0.358	0.364	0.103	11.7%	12.4%

External Options from the Minors

Luke Carlin

Carlin has had a long and winding road in professional baseball that has resulted in a couple cups of coffee in the bigs the past two seasons totaling about 100 PA. Originally drafted by the Tigers in the 10th round out of Northeastern in 2002, he was granteda quick release in 2003. He caught on with the Padres immediately and played in their organization for 6 years. He signed with Arizona in 2009 as a minor league free agent. Carlin did very little with the bat until 2008, essentially his 3rd full season in AAA. However in back to back years he has now posted OPSes of .828 and .911. Carlin is another switch-hitter who has fared better from the left.

As for the defensive book, the consensus say defense is his bread and butter. Scout.com had this to say in 2007:

2006 Defense (Triple-A Portland): .991 Fielding Percentage was second among all catchers in the Pacific Coast League. He caught 36% of runners attempting to steal (24 of 66). Carlin is like a brick wall behind the plate. His part-time catching role in Portland was sometimes staggered however Carlin performed with unwavering consistency. The 26 year-old calls a good game and challenges hitters and pitchers alike by calling for pitches on the inside portion of the plate. Carlin's pick-off move to first has seen a lot of improvement.

Carlin is either rule five eligible or a minor league free agent after being outrighted to AAA on December 3rd, depending on whether he accepts the assignment. I'm sure the consensus is he is a AAAA player based on his age of 29 years, but given the relative lack of an opportunity cost, he could be worth a ST look to an open-minded organization. Below are his splits over the past 3 years vs. RHP. At the least, he is a good defensive, poor hitting catcher who is willing to draw walks when given the chance.

Year	Level	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
2007	AAA	239	0.243	0.357	0.337	0.094	15.1%	24.3%
2008	AAA	90	0.296	0.433	0.507	0.211	17.8%	23.3%
2009	AAA	202	0.345	0.448	0.53	0.185	15.4%	19.8%

Kyle Phillips

Phillips was drafted out of high school by the Twins in the 10th round of the 2002 draft. After spending 4 years with the Twins, he would spend 1 with the Brewers before finding a home in the Blue Jays organization in 2007. Like Jaso, the big question on Phillips is his defense. What the left-handed hitter has done consistently with the Blue Jays is murder right-handed pitching. Phillips is just 25, if his defense is better than subjectively advertised, he will have a future in the bigs. He was outrighted to AAA, and will be exposed in the Rule Five draft. His numbers vs. RHP are below.

Year	Level	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	BB%	K%
2007	A+	342	0.329	0.372	0.453	0.124	7.0%	9.9%
2008	AA	246	0.326	0.398	0.472	0.146	10.2%	12.2%
2009	AAA	239	0.346	0.413	0.49	0.144	8.8%	13.0%

The Rays are in pretty good hands with Shoppach behind the dish, it is not worth giving up a key trading chip for a catcher who will play 40-50 games when there are freely available players within and outside of the system who have yet to be given a shot, and who would be less expensive than a veteran. Let's get three of these guys into camp and let the strong man survive.

Gregg Zaun Signs with Brewers; What's Next for the Rays?

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 19:44:04 -0000

Darn.

A sandwich pick, which the Rays received due to the Type-B designation, is worth about $0.8M. Last year, the Brewers received pick number 47 after the Rays signed Brian Shouse. Barring the Rays signing a Type-A free agent, the team will have five draft picks in the top 75 and have the potential to add one more through Shouse. We talk a lot about the importance of draft picks - and signing them - so goa head and take next draft day off, it'll be a fun one.

Gregg Zaun gave us some fun memories. The day the Rays acquired him was pretty special after what felt like an eternity of begging. The book isn't yet closed on the trade, but consider this: the team is essentially trading Rhyne Hughes for a top 50 draft pick. I don't know about you, but I consider that a win. Factor in what Zaun did for the Rays in his short time here, and Hughes has his hands full if he wants to make this an even deal.

As for the catching situation, this isn't fun. The two main internal options at this point are Jose Lobaton - a waiver claim from the Padres last July 30^th - and John Jaso. Lobaton is easily the better defender of the pair - i.e. he doesn't field with the equivalent of an oven mitt while sitting on a stool - but is a lesser batter. Against righties, the switch-hitting Lobaton has a minor league OPS of roughly .780 while Jaso is at .847. If you assume those numbers translate 1:1 (they won't) then over 300 plate appearances Jaso is a superior hitter by eight runs. Is Jaso a worse defender by eight runs? I don't know.

Looking at the free agents list didn't reveal anyone who could be a fit, although, as you should expect, the trade market could provide the answer. We'll see.

From All-Star to Non-Tender? Dioner Navarro's Future

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 09:00:59 -0000

by Reinhold Matay - AP

So many round objects.

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In a few weeks, the Rays will have to decide whether to tender an offer to Dioner Navarro or not. If they do and the two sides must head to arbitration yet again, Navarro is guaranteed to make 80% of his salary from 2009, or 1.68 million at minimum.

Presumably, the Rays will exercise Gregg Zaun's 2 million dollar option and continue to play him against right-handed pitching. Generally speaking, that's about 60-70% of the playing time. If Navarro were a consistently good player, this would be a no-brainer. Unfortunately, it's not that simple. His OPS since 2007 are as follows:

.641

.757

.600

From all-star season to the worst of his career. Navarro has picked up some irritating habits this year and there's little way of knowing whether his allergy to walks will cease anytime soon, but it still seems unlikely that he performs this poorly next year. To expound on that, he is set to be a 26-year-old next season and his ZiPS rest of season projection still has him with a wOBA over .290. That's not good, mind you, but definitely expect a better season next year.

The Rays have to answer whether they think he can regain what made him a successful player in the past. Some of it was luck, but also drawing walks and taking pitches that the baseball rulebook defines as "balls". Let's take a look at his runs above average the past three years (which is to say: RAR - Replacement on FanGraphs Value section):

2007 -8.3

2008 11

2009 -11.2

Despite not measuring his defense and playing catcher, Navarro has still been a well below average player in two of those three years. If you extend this back to 2006 the trend still lends favor to the idea that he's a below average baseball player. Of course, he has age, prospect history, and position on his side. The Rays have to weigh whether Navarro's upside is worth more than the saved money and potentially better performance in the short-run.

The list of free agent catchers is pretty horrendous although the Rays only need a righty who can hit lefties, which narrows their shopping list. That leaves you with names like Henry Blanco, Ramon Castro, and Bengie Molina. That's an uninspiring trio, however there are some non-tender candidates and minor league free agents at catcher who could make sense, and there's always trades.

All told, it's hard to see him leaving for nothing, which makes him being traded a much more likely possibility. Having to pay Navarro nearly two million dollars next season isn't an idea that inspires jubilation, but the alternatives on the free agent market are likely to cost the same.

I doubt the Rays non-tender him, but I could see the case for it.

Back Stopped: A Look at the Tampa Bay Rays Lack of Catching Depth

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 04:00:11 -0000

Is Luke Bailey the Rays catcher of the future? via a.espncdn.com

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The Rays struggles at the catcher position have been well, if not over, documented on this site. With the news that Luke Bailey may be signed, sealed, and delivered by Monday signing deadline, the Rays could finally have a big time catching prospect in the organization. Although Bailey was drafted in the 4^th round of this year's draft, he was considered by many as the top prep catching prospect before his Tommy John surgery. Of course taking a high school catcher is a risk in itself, and one coming off a major injury is an even bigger risk, but most scouts predict that Bailey is worth the gamble. He can hit for average and power. He has a great arm and enough athleticism that some project he could play second or third base, however, he shows the skills needed to stick at catcher. On top of all that, the kid can run a little bit too.

We know what we have at the major leagues. Even if Dioner Navarro rebounds to have a decent season (not likely) he is still in his arbitration years. Gregg Zaun is our savior this year, but is what he is and that's an old catcher, who really should be a backup. I guess we can throw Michel Hernandez in the same group with Zaun except Hernandez should be the backup's backup. Shawn Riggans has played one game for the Rays this year and recently suffered yet another injury after returning to the Durham Bulls. I like Riggans, and I'm sure the seams from Fernando Rodney's fastball are still imprinted on his chest, but if he's still on the 40-man roster next year I'll be shocked.

This leaves us with the minor leaguers...

Player	Age	Level	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ISO
Jaso	25	AAA	0.248	0.342	0.350	0.320	0.101
Albernaz	26	AAA	0.188	0.264	0.256	0.245	0.068
Ashley	25	AA	0.212	0.331	0.314	0.311	0.102
		A+	0.236	0.311	0.340	0.306	0.104
Spring	24	AA	0.190	0.264	0.351	0.285	0.161
Lobaton	24	MLB	0.176	0.176	0.176	0.158	0.000
		AAA	0.241	0.292	0.353	0.29	0.113
		AA	0.423	0.484	0.769	0.532	0.346
Lopez	24	A+	0.174	0.236	0.243	0.222	0.070
Jefferies	21	A	0.282	0.349	0.389	0.345	0.107
McCormick	22	A+	0.224	0.297	0.448	0.336	0.224
		A	0.165	0.272	0.252	0.259	0.232

You'll notice I left of Hudson Valley and Princeton. Both are not full season squads and neither have any real prospects at the position. Besides, I think the names above show how desperate this organization is in the need for a catcher. Offensively, what has plagued the Rays major league team at the backstop position is an organization wide epidemic. Unfortunately, defensive metrics for the most part are unavailable in the minors so we're relying on reputation.

I thought John Jaso might challenge the backup spot this year, and possibly contend for a starting job in 2010, but his 2009 has been lack luster. The power saw from him last year has not been there this year and his defense is suspect to say the least. He has increased his walk total, but that's more of a moral victory than anything to be excited over. Behind him for most of the season has been Craig Albernaz, who is organization filler as is the case with a few other names on the list.

Nevin Ashley has the most at-bats in AA for a catcher, but again the production has been terrible. The 6^th round pick in 2006, has dropped off each season since his impressive 2006 campaign and at age at 25 he finds himself back in single-A. The reason he is there, other than his production, is the addition of Jose Labaton.

Labaton had a brief stint with the Padres big league club after a below average start in Triple-A. However, since joining the Rays, Labaton has been on fire. He has five extra base hits in eight games after hitting just nine in 39 games for the Padres Triple-A affiliate. Labaton is 24, and since he is on the 40 man roster, there is a chance we could see him in September. He reminds me a lot of Dioner Navarro which doesn't mean much for his future. Matt Spring is his backup in Montgomery and again...organization filler.

The catcher position for class A+ Charlotte has been a revolving door. As mentioned above, Nevin Ashley has gotten his fair share of playing time there as well as Christian Lopez. Lopez, 24, is more filler. Mike McCormick has played for the stone crabs, but is currently with class A Bowling Green. Even though he's just 22 he's looking like filler of the future.

The lone bright spot on the list is Jake Jefferies, the starter for the Hot Rods. At age 21, Jefferies is the best thing going behind the plate in the Rays system. He's more of a contact/gaps hitter than a home-run threat at this point with 14 doubles and eight home runs. His plate discipline has been impressive and he has more walks (34) than strikeouts (32). His defense is still a work in progress; however, his footwork is decent. His arm behind the plate remains a question mark. He's not a top prospect by any means, but he's the best we've got; that is until Luke Bailey officially signs.

AL East SB Nation Midseason Roundtable: The Trade Deadline

hugo — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 11:23:15 -0000

So, Sky Kalkman of the incredible site Beyond the Boxscore hosted a roundtable featuring bloggers from each SB Nation AL East blog: R.J. Anderson of D-Rays Bay (Tampa), Stacey Long of Camden Chat (Baltimore) , Randy Booth of Over the Monster (Boston), and Travis Goldman of Pinstripe Alley (New York), and Tom and I from your favourite Jays' site. Part I focuses on the trade deadline, while part II focuses on second-half storylines. Anyway, without further adeiu:

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which teams, under which circumstances, will be buyers over the next three weeks? How about sellers? If there are any undecideds, what will be the tipping point?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): I think the Rays could buy and sell. If someone comes along with an enticing offer for Carl Crawford or Scott Kazmir, I fully expect the Rays to listen. At the same time, seeing them acquire a cheap catcher wouldn't shock me either.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Historically, the Jays have been quiet in July in terms of deals - not buying or selling. This season could be somewhat different. Of course everyone has heard the Roy Halladay trade rumours but I have to say, I don't think it's particularly likely he gets dealt before next year's trade deadline, though you never know. Scott Rolen could be interesting to some teams, but the Jays would likely need to get back someone who could play third base next season. Lyle Overbay has slumped lately but he is still having a solid season and could be a useful piece. And if anyone needs a shortstop short-term, Marco Scutaro will be a free agent after this season and is having a very fine season on both sides of the ball. The Jays would be looking to get young position players back, particularly in the infield, as only Aaron Hill is signed after the 2010 season. They could also be looking for a young power hitter. The Jays would love to trade Vernon Wells, of course, but his deal makes that very difficult, even without the no-trade clause.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): There is no question that the Orioles should be sellers this year. They aren't going anywhere in the standings and they have a number of free agents to-be who could provide value to contending teams. Danys Baez has seen a career revival this year after missing all of last season. He's a FA next year and I can't imagine the O's bringing him back unless he takes a considerable pay cut. Aubrey Huff, also an upcoming FA, has dropped off after a great 2008 but still provides left handed power and has proven himself much more adequate at 1B than could have been imagined. Some O's fans want Aubrey to be re-signed (or at least offered arbitration after the year) because the Orioles don't have an immediate solution to replace him in 2010. Plus Huff has really endeared himself to fans and has publicly stated that he wants to remain an Oriole. He has regrets about leaving the Devil Rays just before they crossed the line into contending, and he's scared to miss that boat with the O's as well. Other possible trade pieces for the Orioles include George Sherrill, Jim Johnson, and Luke Scott. I think the O's may make a few trades, but Andy MacPhail is nothing if not methodical. He won't trade just because it seems like he should and he won't give away anything if he doesn't get substantial value in return. It seems that he prefers to operate in the winter when there is more flexibility, and he's very, very deliberate. But his patience did bring us Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, and more, so for now I'll defer to his wisdom.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): The Red Sox will be "buyers," if you even want to call them that. They're certainly not sellers as the team with the best team in the American League. Even though the Red Sox have been inconsistent, they may not necessarily need to trade for anything. They have a few guys like Jed Lowrie coming off the disabled list that will instantly shore up some holes (of course, that's if he stays healthy). So for another year under Theo Epstein, the Sox might not make a huge splash -- unlike last year, when that guy named Manny, I think, was traded.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What holes will teams be looking to fill? What are the biggest holes they *SHOULD* be looking to fill but don't seem to be concerned about? Which holes from the first half can be plugged internally, perhaps by improvement the same player?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Catcher, corner outfield, pitching. John Jaso might be able to help out at catcher, and the other two are just for depth in the system.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): The Jays have had a huge hole at DH/LF for most of the year - Adam Lind has done a great job in one of those spots, but the other one has been occupied by the likes of Kevin Millar and David Dellucci. Now that Travis Snider is back from a back/shoulder injury, if he starts hitting well, he could be called up and fill the spot. The Jays' pitching depth is quite impressive, but they will be relying on young and inexperienced starters to fill 4/5 of the rotation so an arm that could add some stability there would also be good, though they might be content to let the rookies work through it. All of them have showed quite a bit of promise. Shortstop remains a huge concern long-term with Marco Scutaro set to become a free agent after the season and no one to replace him in the Jays' system. But a hole at SS is nothing new for the Jays.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): I have to think that the Orioles FO is looking for solutions to 3B and 1B for the immediate future, with SS a slightly more distant concern. Defensively I've had no complaints with Mora but his offense is simply atrocious. He has an option for next year but I will be shocked if it is picked up. There's no internal solution to the 3B issue and Mora isn't getting any better, so I hope that MacPhail has an external solution in mind. As for 1B, the O's only real hitting prospect, Brandon Snyder, could fill that role next year maybe, but it's no sure thing. For the rest of '09, Aubrey Huff will be fine. He's a 2nd half hitter and I'm confident he'll pick up the pace after the AS break.

The O's pitching at the MLB level is certainly sub-par, but I don't know anyone who considers it a "hole." We're all waiting patiently for Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, and a number of other lesser prospects to come up to the bigs and save us. We could see Tillman as early as this year which excites me greatly.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): One thing they certainly do need is a defensive shortstop. Julio Lugo and Nick Green just ain't cutting it, but Jed Lowrie, when he comes off the DL, might, so who knows at this point if a trade is necessary. And the Sox might say they need a big bat to help out Ortiz, because let's face it: can he keep this up for this rest of the season? I'm not so sure. The Sox also might be looking for a third baseman because Mike Lowell has had his issues lately, and I don't think the Sox really want to have Kevin Youkilis over at third all the time. Other than that, I don't think the Sox will be going after much. They certainly don't need any pitchers, but could trade one (Takashi Saito namely).

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): As always, the Yankees will be buyers, and would be even if they weren't three back in the division. Pitching is the biggest weakness, and Cashman should feel free to address both the bullpen and the rotation. Who knew Wang and Pettitte would be this bad? Joba's not going deep enough, and Brian Bruney has been oscillating between injured and ineffective.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Who are the most popular trade targets for those holes? Any targets flying under the radar? Any targets your team is especially intrigued in? Any popular names they're backing away from? Any rumors you'd like to start?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Gregg Zaun, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, worst case: someone like Miguel Olivo.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): R.J., I'd love to see a trade with the Rays that nets the Rays Gregg Zaun, but something tells me it'd be a tough sell. Matt Wieters credits Zaun a lot with helping him in every aspect of being a ML catcher and if their mentor/mentee relationship is really that strong the O's might not want to break it up.

As for O's trade targets, I haven't heard anything specific. Everything centering around the Orioles, trade-wise, explores only the pieces the O's would give away, not what they'd get in return. Whoever it is, I'd imagine it would be mostly minor leaguers.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): All the shortstop names have dropped off the table so far (Omar Vizquel anyone?), but other names have surfaced for 3B like Garret Atkins. Don't color me impressed. The other names that could fill a gap are the Nats' Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn -- if the price is right.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Huston Street has been discussed. Ken Rosenthal (take it for what it's worth) says the Yanks are one of the main players for Halladay. I'd like to throw Cliff Lee's name into the mix. He's obviously not on Halladay's level, but is younger and would require significantly less in terms of prospects.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which prospects and young major leaguers are most likely to change hands? Any that teams have deemed off-limits?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Basically the top three in the system: Tim Beckham, Desmond Jennings, and Wade Davis. I'd probably throw Jeremy Hellickson in that group as well.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): You won't see Travis Snider or left-handed starter Brett Cecil traded. Actually, I doubt that the Jays are going to be willing to trade much in the way of prospects this July.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): The Orioles aren't currently in the business of trading prospects and young major leaguers. I'd imagine that once the pitching starts to take form, perhaps next year, MacPhail will start using his major league ready pieces to fill in the gaps. I haven't heard anything official about players being off limits, but it'll be a cold day in hell before Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, or Nick Markakis are traded.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): While Clay Buchholz's name comes up a lot, he's been untouchable for a few years now and I don't think that will change now. Michael Bowden, however, who is a poor-man's Buchholz, is almost as good and could be up for grabs. Daniel Bard, the fireballing reliever who is impressing scouts every day, could also be traded because let's face it: he's just a reliever. I don't think any, however, will be traded.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): The big four are Hughes, Joba, Austin Jackson and Jesus. For the Yanks to land Halladay, it would require at least two of them; however, Cashman has shown a reticence to deal 'home-grown' players, especially the upper tier ones, so I doubt they get Halladay. Two intriguing pitchers that could get dealt are Zach McAllister and Ivan Nova.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Without any trade-deadline moves, what has to happen for your team to win the division? How much more likely is your team to make the playoffs by plugging its holes or adding an impact player?

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): Two big keys: Jed Lowrie coming back to shortstop 100 percent healthy. If he can be healthy, he has shown in the past he can play some really good ball. The other key: Daisuke Matsuzaka. Dice-K has been absolutely horrid this season. But if he could come off the disabled list and pitch like he did last season, you can wrap up the AL Pennant and put it in a box on Yawkey Way.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): 1) Aliens attack and destroy Boston, 2) The Mets and Yankees switch divisions, 3) The entire Rays team comes down with mono except for Dioner Navarro, and 4) the Blue Jays trade the Orioles Roy Halladay and Ricky Romero for Felix Pie.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): It's hard to imagine the confluence of events that would have to take place for such a thing to occur, but one thing is certain: the Toronto sports media would still find plenty to complain about.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Both Wang and Joba have to return to 2008 form (in Wang's case, pre-injury). Adding a good reliever would make it easier to move Hughes back to the rotation if Wang/Joba don't return to form.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): For the teams probably out of the running, what acquisitions and decisions based on the 2010 and future seasons would you consider a "win"?

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Great question. I'd consider any acquisition of a young position player under team control for the next several years a big win. Particularly at shortstop or third base, where the Jays have little organizational depth in the high minors (and prospects in the low minors who aren't exactly lighting it up at the moment). The Jays have a lot of pitching depth, but not all that many young pitchers with top-of-the-rotation potential. With one-time future-ace Dustin McGowan's career now in doubt, adding a young, top-of-the-rotation potential pitcher to replace him would, of course, be a coup. If you could fill both of those needs by trading Roy Halladay, I think you have to at least consider it.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): I'll skip this...

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): And people ask me why I don't like Red Sox fans...

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): For the past decade or so, August and September have been hard for Orioles fans to watch. The annual swoon comes at us fast and before you know it the O's are finishing the season 4-32 or something almost as ridiculous. I'd consider it a win for the O's to continue to play hard down the stretch and avoid the collapse. Hopefully the young guys on the team still have enough to prove that they won't let themselves pack it in. Another win would be continual improvement by Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, and even Adam Jones. And of course anything done to find help for the Orioles corner infield positions in 2010 and beyond is a bonus.

Dioner Navarro Might Be Heading to the DL

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 02:12:21 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

5 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays catcher Dioner Navarro, center, is helped off the field after being injured in the seventh inning during a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics in St. Petersburg, Fla., Saturday, July 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Brian Blanco)

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Marc Lancaster with the scoop:

tboraysRays waiting on tests to decide if Navarro to DL & Jaso up or cross fingers tmrw w/ Dillon as backup C, wait on Navi

At this point the difference between Dioner Navarro and Michel Hernandez is absurdly marginal. If you would've told me I could type those words three months ago, I would've called you silly. You never want to see injuries, especially to the head, still the fact of the matter is that Navarro simply is playing poor baseball. Joe Dillon may get in a game just yet! That or the Rays can bring up John Jaso.

Jaso can hit. .256/.340/.399 at Triple-A Durham which probably projects better at the big league level than the Rays current tandem (currently hitting .235/.262/.345) but he probably fields just as well as Dillon would behind the plate He walks, doesn't strike out much, and doesn't show a ton of power; just getting on base at a 30% clip is an upgrade at this point. Oh, and he's left-handed and hits righties better.

We'll see, either way, Michel Hernandez is your starting catcher for the final game of the first half.

Update: Lancaster checks back in and says the Rays don't foresee a DL trip for Navarro.

A Look at the Notable Rays Hitting Prospects; Tim Beckham, Desmond Jennings, Hector Guevara, and More

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 03:58:27 -0000

That play on teams with 20+ games played to date.

Player	Level	Pos	Age	K%	BB%	ISO	LgAge	LgK%	LgBB%	LgISO
Matt Joyce	AAA	RF	24	24	12.6	0.227	27	20.5	8.3	0.132
Reid Brignac	AAA	SS	23	11.8	8.3	0.157	27	20.5	8.3	0.132
John Jaso	AAA	C	25	13	13.5	0.133	27	20.5	8.3	0.132
Desmond Jennings	AA	CF	22	11.6	9.9	0.165	25	20.5	9.6	0.125
Kyeong Kang	A	RF	21	23	8.1	0.177	22	23.2	7.8	0.114
Timothy Beckham	A	SS	19	22.1	7.5	0.135	22	23.2	7.8	0.114
Hector Guevara	VSL	SS	17	11.6	6.9	0.209	18	20.4	8.7	0.12

Individual analysis after the jump.

Matt Joyce Pos: RF, Age: 24, B: L, T: R, Acquired: Trade

I've talked to death about this guy. His power is magnificent, he walks, and yeah he strikes out, but he's major league ready. The Rays have to carefully manage his service time thanks to Detroit. Right now, his service time is close to and probably over 130 days. That gives the Rays about 50 days to play around with from here on out, if they can stay under that threshold, they keep Joyce for an additional year. Otherwise, you may see Joyce stay in Triple-A for the overdrawn days to start next season. The Rays shouldn't need him given the Gabes performance.

Reid Brignac Pos: SS, Age: 23, B: L, T: R, Acquired: Draft (2004, 2nd Round)

He's still young for the International League, and he's striking out a lot less while walking about league average. The power displayed from his shortstop position is pretty nice as well. Brignac's short major league stint should help silence the crowd suggesting he couldn't hit major league pitching. In 44 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Brignac hit .357/.386/.524. Of course, he hit .059/.059/.059 in 17 against lefties. Despite filling in a little last year and a bit this year, Brignac's service time is pretty manageable and the ~30-35 days accumulated to date can easily be navigated around if the need ever arises. Whether Brignac is a shortstop or a second baseman for the Rays at the next level, he's desirable to other teams as the former.

John Jaso Pos: C, Age: 25, B: L, T: R, Acquired: Draft (2003, 12th Round)

Allow me to go out on a limb and guess Jaso wasn't really focusing on his defense for the first month of the season. So far, he's allowed eight passed balls in 55 games. In 98 games last year, he allowed eight. Jaso is still walking and making contact fine enough, but his bat doesn't exactly play up at another position.

Desmond Jennings Pos: CF, Age: 22, B: R, T: R, Acquired: Draft (2006, 10th Round)

I would have to guess Jennings is on the verge of a promotion. He's still walking better than league average, striking out nearly half less, showing more power, and playing a premium position. Maybe after the Futures Game is played Jennings can head to Durham. Otherwise, he's going to play blindfolded for a challenge.

Kyeong Kang Pos: RF, Age: 21, B: L, T: L, Acquired: Draft (2006, 15th Round)

He's a bit older than you would think, and everything minus the power is offensively average. He's a left-handed bat, but doesn't have a huge platoon split to speak of.

Tim Beckham Pos: SS, Age: 19, B: R, T: R, Acquired: Draft (2008, 1st Round)

Three years younger than league average, and he's striking out and walking at average clips while displaying more power than most of the league's populous. I'm not sure how anyone can be down on this guy right now. Yes, he's made errors, but the bat is nice. Here's a comparison for fun:

Beckham (19): .283/.342/.417

League average: .254/.322/.368

Justin Upton (18): .263/.343/.413

League average: .253/.325/.365

No, he's not Justin Upton, but nobody else is either. Nothing Beckham has or has not done to date should turn you against the pick. Things could be a lot worse.

Hector Guevara Pos: SS, Age: 17, B: R, T: R, Acquired: International Free Agent (2008)

Finally we reach the final hitting prospect worth noting to date. He's only 17-years-old and he plays in the Venezuelan Summer League. I don't know much about him other than he's hitting a lot better than most 17-year-olds would at any level of professional ball. There definitely appears to be some power potential there.

Minor League Highlights 6/21 - 6/23 (INPO)

FreeZorilla — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 14:56:57 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

6 months ago: Kansas City Royals catcher Miguel Olivo, left, and Tampa Bay Rays' Matt Joyce watch his two-run homer off Kansas City reliever Roman Colon during the eighth inning inning of a baseball game Tuesday, June 2, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. Joyce had four RBIs in Tampa Bay's 6-2 win. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

Browse more photos »

1. The Durham Bulls bats came alive the past 3 days. SS Reid Brignac went 4-10 with a 2B and a BB. Reid's splits sit at .291/.356/.436 vs. .250/.299/.412 a year ago. A big improvement this season has been BB:K as he has gone from .27 to .78. His K% has been reduced from 26.4% to 13.4% while his walks have jumped to a more respectable 9.5%.

2. 27 year old OF Rashad Eldridge continues to play well for Durham since being promoted from AA. In the past 3 games he has gone 3-8 with 2 BB. The minor league vet is having arguably his best season hitting .301/.370/.361. Eldridge had a shot at AAA back in 2006 with the Mets and the Rangers but only OPSed .612 and .583. Prior to this season he put up back to back years in AA of .780+ with the Twins and the Rays.

3. OF Matt Joyce has been mired in a slump since being recalled to Durham going 7 for his last 49 with 9 walks. His OPS in that span has been .541. For the season vs LHP he is putting up .229/.260/.333. He's going to need to improve on those numbers to become the everyday right fielder for the Rays. In the past 3 games he has gone 1-13 with 2 BB, but his lone hit was a big home run yesterday. His seasonal slash at AAA is .268/.367/.453.

4. 25 yr old C John Jaso has woken up in June after a dreadful May where he OPSed .431. He has gone 3 for his last 11 with 2 BB and a HR. His season slash sits at .238/.349/.390. Jaso's plate discipline is excellent, especially when compared to Navi. He is walking at a rate of 13.7% while only striking out 12.8% for a BB/K of 1.24. For those keeping score at home Navi has walked 1.9% and struck out 14.9% for a ratio of .13.

5. OF Justin Ruggiano continues to play well going 3-8 with a 2B and a HR making this list for the 2nd consecutive time. THe 27 year old is now slashing .247/.341/.416.

6. 1B Rhyne Hughes continues his torrid hitting since being promoted from Montgomery. In the past 3 Hughes has gone 5-13 with a BB, a 2B, and 2 HRs. In 58 AAA ABs, Hughes has now posted .323/.354/.613.

7. Scott Kazmir had what appears to have been a one night only in Durham going 6 innings while striking out 5 and walking none. He surrendered 5 hits and 0 runs with his velocity consistently in the 90s. Kazmir was sadit o have thrown about 70% strikes.

8. Wade Davis made another excellent start going 6 innings, striking out 6 and walking 2. He allowed 6 hits and 2 runs, 1 earned. In 31 June innings his K/9 is 11.32 vs a BB/9 of 2.32. His seasonal FIP is 3.68 with a June FIP of 2.99.

9. Four Durham pitchers performed well this week out of the bullpen: Jason Cromer, Dale Thayer, Joe Bateman, and Julio DePaula. Each allowed no earned runs in a minimum of 2 innings pitched. The table below will update you on their seasons to date:

	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
Jason Cromer	4.78	3.38	0.84	4.07
Dale Thayer	5.87	2.93	1.47	3.3
Joe Bateman	9.25	5.92	4.81	3.73
Julio DePaula	6.75	4.14	4.14	4.63

10. It was a quiet few days with the lumber for the AA biscuits, but there were a few pitching gems. Jeremy Hellickson made his return in a big way picking up right where he left off. Hellickson went 4 strong striking out 6 and walking none while surrendering 4 hits and 0 runs. Hellickson has been lights out all season with a K/9 of 10.9 and a BB/9 of 2.08. His FIP is at 2.25 with an ERA of 1.85. The right hander turned 22 in April.

11. 25 year old left hander Brandon Mann made his best start of the season for Montgomery going 6 shutout innings while striking out 6 and walking none. For the season his FIP sits at 3.85 with a K/9 of 5.07 and a BB/9 of 3.73.

12. 24 year old right hander Ryan Reid struck out the side in his one inning of work. Control has plagued him since joining AA last season. This season his K/9 and BB/9 both sit at 6.33. His K/9 has slipped this year from 10.3 to 6.33, so hopefully this inning was a sign of things to come for Reid.

13. Jesse Darcy made his best start of the season for the Charlotte Stone Crabs pitching a 7 inning complete game shutout. Darcy struck out 2, walked one, and allowed 5 hits. Darcy picked up his second win of the season in 13 starts. His FIP sits at 5.25 with a K/9 of just 3.68.

14. 24 year old right hander Tommy Rafferty has pitched 8.1 innings of relief for the Stone Crabs since his mid-season promotion. Rafferty has struck out 9 and walked 4 in his 8.1 innings posting a FIP of 2.51 while allowing 2 earned runs.

15. Cody Cipriano has had a cooler bat going 1-8 over the past 3 games. Why is he on this list? 4 walks over that span elevating his BB% to 11.8%. This is good because in A-and A ball Cody walked 14.1% and 13.9% of the time. Looks like his eye may be catching up to A+ pitching.

16. 22 year old middle infielder Omar Luna had been struggling mightily since joining the Stone Crabs in 2009. In the past 3 he has managed to go 4-6 with a BB. His slash sits at .197/.217/.413. Luna has never walked above 5% in his career.

17. 22 year old left fielder Ryan Royster has struggled in his second year with the Stone Crabs. He did manage to go 4-7 over the past games raising his slash to .220/.273/.295. His OPS has declined from .691 last year to .568 this year at the same level. He seems to be struggling in his splits OPSing .516 vs righties while his OPS vs lefties is .771.

18. 21 year old shortstop Shawn O'Malley has gone 4-8 with a stolen base over the past 3. The speedster is slashing .265/.364/.322 while swiping 25 bags in 32 attempts. He is having arguably his finest season in 4 years with the Rays organization in his first season at the A+ level.

19. The South Atlantic League held their annual all-star game. The Hot Rods were represented by Tim Beckham and Chris Andujar. It was a rough night for Andujar giving up 3 hits, a walk, and 4 runs in his sole inning pitched. Becks star shone bright as he went 3-5 with a 3B and 2 strikeouts. He also committed an error.

Stats courtesy of MILB.com/Fangraphs/minorleaguesplits

Not all sites update daily so minor inconsistencies may appear

Will do a week in review for short season highlights during the weekend.

Dioner Navarro Does Some Silly Things

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 00:04:51 -0000

Defensive abilities going into a slump just like offensive abilities is a concept some find hard to grasp. Sometimes players have minor injuries that cause them to miss a step here or there, or they go through a spell where the ball is difficult to pick up, or they just have some bad luck on glove placement. It happens. Even to catchers, as Dioner Navarro proved today. Navarro sailed two throws to second base over his middle infielders' heads. I don't know what the tallest combined middle infield in baseball history is, but both Ben Zobrist and Reid Brignac stand 6'3" inches. There's no familiarity concept here, Navarro isn't used to throwing to taller infielders or anything like that, these were just poor throws. The blame shouldn't be placed solely on Navarro though, David Price allowed Alex Rodriguez to take off, first move, and force Navarro into a grab and fire maneuver.

Later on Navarro would try and pick Melky Cabrera off third, something that failed miserably. I don't know if Navarro nails him with a perfect throw or not, but there's no way of knowing whether the Rays escape that inning without allowing a run. Yeah, Price struck out Jeter then got Damon to roll out, but both approaches change if there's a runner on third. Bad play, but the run may have found a way to score anyways.

It's only one game, and only three plays, and I'd rather not have anyone place too much emphasis on the events. Still, given our relatively lack of ability to place numbers on catcher defense, I'm wondering if John Jaso could be worse behind the plate when offense is accounted for.

ZiPS has Navarro getting ~300 more at-bats with a .296 wOBA, good for -8.6 offensive runs. Even if John Jaso between his .309 and .323 ZiPS and CHONE projected wOBAs, over 320-330 plate appearances that's a six run swing. Six runs, gained just from making John Jaso the everyday catcher. Is Jaso six runs worse than Navarro defensively over that same time? Would Jaso butcher play-calling duties? I don't know the answer to either of those questions.

I don't think Navarro is this bad of a player, but sometimes offensive regression ignores our arbitrary schedule length and takes longer than 162 games. Navarro's greatest assets right now are things unquantifiable, and forgive me if that makes me a bit weary on keeping him in the lineup when there's a chance of an upgrade being available.

Regarding Price, this was a pretty mediocre start. The control was lacking, and he missed away countless times. Price threw two spike curves today, about 30 sliders, and the rest fastballs. I guess on the positive side, if the worst Price start is going to be one where he gives up three runs, then we should be pretty happy. On the negative side, the same issues we've been talking about popped up again. He's going to have some bumps in the road, just keep his talent in mind and don't set your expectations too high.

It seems odd that just a month ago people were trying to figure out how Willy Aybar and Ben Zobrist get their share of at-bats. Today both were batting in the top five of the lineup and are essentially regulars. This could change soon, with Pat Burrell and Evan Longoria returning, although it's still funny how things work out.

Matt Joyce was one faint breeze away from hitting a homerun off Mariano Rivera.

In many ways, Joe Dillon is basically Ty Wigginton. The blasé veteran who hustles, hits for some pop against lefties, and has a likeable demeanor. Consider it a good thing that 1-2 win players of Wigginton's ilk are no longer thought of as amongst the team's best players and are instead correctly thought of as role players.

More on Navarro, I can't believe I was actually for a sacrifice bunt from him in the 9^th. When a sabermetrically inclined fan wants you to bunt in the 9^th inning when you lead by one, in a wind tunnel of a stadium, that means your season is ranking in on the bad scale as approximately "Flipper". A runner on second with one out has a RE of 0.72, runner on first with one out is 0.55, and nobody on, two out 0.11. It didn't matter in the long run, since Navarro essentially bunted and the Rays scored a few more runs, but really, Navarro's season has been an absolute nightmare.

Reason 14 as to why you cannot demote Sonnanstine: Team's best pinch runner.

Reason 642 why B.J. is cooler than you: Those sunglasses.

Reason 643: Over his last ~110 plate appearances his OPS is near .800.

I can't remember the last time I saw both managers ditch the DH rule during one game. The Rays by moving Joe Dillon to the field, and the Yanks by doing the same with Jorge Posada. Given that the Rays bench was essentially Michel Hernandez and Gabe Gross, I think we can all agree it's a good thing the game ended before that lineup slot came up again.

I kept thinking we would only have two games against the Yankees, then I realized we play them Monday too. I don't know who designed the Friday-Monday series, but I'm not a fan. It just throws everything off.

David Price Update

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 11:25:28 -0000

Durham

In Price's third start of the year he went five innings, allowing two hits, a homerun, walking one, and striking out five. Not too shabby for someone on a strict pitch count. Price's tRA in Durham is a rotation high 5.47. Thus far he's allowed 33.3% line drives, per StatCorner, and 41.7% grounders while generating 10.1% swinging strikes. Frankly I don't entirely trust that line drive rate.

Wade Davis has a 12% swinging strike rate at Durham to go with his 2.42 tRA. Mitch Talbot has been nearly as good, and Chad Orvella, Dale Thayer, Winston Abreu, Randy Choate, and Dewon Day all have tRAs sub-3.00. That's pretty impressive considering only one of those players is actually on the 40-man roster.

It's nice to see Reid Brignac, John Jaso, and Chris Nowak hitting well, although I wish Matt Joyce and Justin Ruggiano would join them, and relatively soon.

Montgomery

Aneury Rodriguez had his best start of the season; going five innings, allowing a homer, walk, and striking out three while getting 9 groundball outs and 6 via the air. Ryan Reid made an appearance, allowing a hit, walk, and striking one out during an inning of relief. Desmond Jennings played the role of DH, going 0-4, and Rhyne Hughes went 0-3 with tres strikeouts.

The talk of Jeremy Hellickson hitting a wall in Double-A seems premature. His tRA thus far is 1.90, slightly better than Heath Rollins 2.14. Outside of those two and Eduardo Morlan, the Biscuits pitching staff has been an absolute mess; only five pitchers have tRAs below league average thus far.

Offensively things aren't much better. With the exception of Desmond Jennings and Rhyne Hughes, nobody else on the Biscuits roster has a wOBA above league average. That's a remarkably poor team.