SB Nation - Scott Lewis

Top Prospects, part 3: The fringe pitchers

APV — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:41:35 -0000

Identifying fringe pitching prospects is a more difficult job than identifying fringe position players, mainly because I think just about any high-performing minor league bullpen guy could be considered fringe. Nevertheless, here is my attempt at identifying guys who, like the previous list, could be or have been interesting, but don't quite meet my standards for being a legit prospect right now. (ages are as of 7/1/09, levels represent the highest level they have seen more than a coffee cup of action)

Paolo Espino (22.5, high-A) - Espino was originally part of the Lake County 2007 cohort that included Kelvin De La Cruz and Jeanmar Gomez. After a few injury issues and some shuffling in and out of the rotation the past two years, Espino emerged with a pretty solid season in the Kinston rotation in 2009. Espino showed a strong K-rate, above average control, and stayed healthy the whole season. A little old given his injury history, he might be a sleeper candidate if he performs well in the Akron rotation next season.

P Espino	IP	aFIP	ERA	BB%	K%	GB%	Net	ProS
2007	108.1	3.84	3.66	6.9	25.7	45.8	22	4.77
2008	66.2	3.77	5.54	7.7	22.8	47.4	9	0.99
2009	134.2	3.68	3.01	6.5	21.2	40.6	27	4.17

Josh Tomlin (24.7, AA) - Tomlin is a favorite of mine. After working mostly out of the bullpen in 2007 and 2008, Tomlin took his control skills into the Akron rotation this season. His excellent control remained true to form, and even though he lost some of his swing and miss abilities with the move to the rotation, he still maintained an excellent K:BB ratio of 4.7. His problem is HRs...having allowed 21 this year. Probably no more than a depth starter/bullpen swingman at the most, but if he figures out how to keep the ball in the park...who knows.

J Tomlin	IP	aFIP	ERA	BB%	K%	GB%	Net	ProS
2007	131.1	3.97	3.36	5.6	19.7	44.9	24	2.86
2008	109.2	2.88	3.04	4.0	26.4	42.0	45	3.84
2009	145.0	3.51	4.16	4.5	20.8	36.4	13	4.06

Bryan Price (22.0, high-A) - Part of the Victor Martinez package from the Red Sox, Price doesn't have any obvious red flags. He gets a good number of Ks, has pretty good control, was durable in 2009, and gives up a few more HRs than you might like, but not an atrociously high number. What keeps him from being an interesting prospect at the moment is simply that the sum of the parts isn't quite enough. Another candidate to begin the season in Akron's rotation, a strong performance could easily make him a guy to watch.

B Price	IP	aFIP	ERA	BB%	K%	GB%	Net	ProS
2008	40.0	3.14	3.82	5.6	23.9	52.4	20	2.43
2009	132.2	3.76	4.75	7.2	22.3	43.0	21	4.01

Yohan Pino (25.5, AAA)

Pino's relatively advanced age is a product of concerns over how his stuff would hold up against more advanced hitters and a subsequent slow advancement cycle. That said, against AAA hitters, Pino did quite well in 2009. He showed outstanding control, more than adequate strikeout numbers, and excellent (perhaps lucky) homerun numbers given his strong flyball tendencies. Pino's numbers bear a strong resemblance to Scott Lewis, minus the multiple arm surgeries. It might be a negative indicator that no team felt like giving him a shot in the rule 5 draft, but I'm glad they didn't.

Y Pino	IP	aFIP	ERA	BB%	K%	GB%	Net	ProS
2006	94.0	2.85	1.91	5.3	26.3	44.9	56	3.85
2007	115.0	3.55	3.13	5.5	22.1	38.9	40	3.58
2008	109.0	4.41	4.54	7.9	16.1	35.7	-22	-0.16
2009	127.0	3.44	2.83	5.6	23.7	36.2	55	3.82

Eric Berger (23.2, AA) - I admit it, I actually like all of the guys on this list. Berger is a 2008 draftee who has performed well enough to make it to Akron by the end of his second season. Berger has had a few control issues, but generally has made up for it by keeping the ball in the park. As with most of these guys, the question is about how his stuff will hold up against higher level hitters. He seems likely to start in Akron, but could certainly be in the Columbus rotation for a substantial part of 2010 if he does well.

E Berger	IP	aFIP	ERA	BB%	K%	GB%	Net	ProS
2008	38.1	3.11	2.11	7.0	28.7	51.0	22	2.63
2009	144.0	3.88	2.50	10.0	21.9	41.7	39	3.74

Clayton Cook (18.9, rookie) - Cook is different than any of the other guys on the list because he is so young and so low in the system. A 2008 high school draftee, Cook has shown enough in his first two seasons of short-season ball to be interesting, but can't really be considered a legit prospect till he shows his stuff in a full season league, something he'll have the opportunity to do this year in Lake County.

C Cook	IP	aFIP	ERA	BB%	K%	GB%	Net	ProS
2008	25.0	2.95	2.52	7.8	25.4	53.8	11	5.42
2009	67.2	3.55	2.79	9.4	23.0	43.0	27	3.46

Santo Frias (21.6, high-A) - Ok, Frias probably doesn't deserve to be here. He is probably better grouped among a huge group of interchangeable relievers in the Tribe's sytem. But I have liked Frias ever since he debuted alongside Kelvin De La Cruz, Jeanmar Gomez and Paolo Espino with that 2007 Lake County squad. Plus, he throws hard, with a solid-mid 90s fastball. Now further removed from arm problems that bothered him in late 2007 and 2008, I think he is a sleeper as a strong relief prospect in 2010. That said, right now he is just another arm.

S Frias	IP	aFIP	ERA	BB%	K%	GB%	Net	ProS
2007	56.1	5.00	2.24	5.8	24.6	30.4	26	2.20
2008	23.1	5.72	6.94	10.7	17.9	36.7	-14	-4.56
2009	61.2	3.94	4.38	11.8	25.5	40.0	26	-0.76

Connor Graham (23.5, AA) - Added to the list. As I say in the comments, he walks too many guys. If he can improve his control he could be a nice starter. If he can't I see him probably going to the bullpen. I'll be interested to see where the Indians place him in 2010.

C Graham	IP	aFIP	ERA	BB%	K%	GB%	Net	ProS
2007	19.0	3.96	2.37	7.1	21.4	49.3	5	-0.13
2008	147.1	4.27	2.26	13.5	22.4	54.6	25	3.19
2009	118.2	4.14	3.72	12.6	24.0	51.6	36	2.55

Again, we could throw in countless bullpen arms here. Some of the names you could consider; Marty Popham, Ryan Edell, Brian Grening, CC Lee, Frank Herrmann, Steven Wright, Kyle Landis and Neil Wagner.

Next up: the interesting positional prospects

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:57:28 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

J.J. Hardy will most likely be traded this offseason, but no matter what Buster Olney says, he's almost certainly not going to be non-tendered.

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Some things to read while getting new cufflinks.

So, with the World Series possibly one day away from being over, we're quickly closing in on hot stove season. Let's start today's rumor roundup with J.J. Hardy. Buster Olney thinks the Brewers could non-tender Hardy, but Al and I both agree that the concept is sheer lunacy. The logic behind it (as cited on MLB Trade Rumors) is beyond flawed:

Olney writes that the Red Sox inquired about Hardy at the deadline, but balked when the Brewers asked for excellent prospects in return. Olney wonders if this is a sign of things to come, and if no market for Hardy develops, would the Brewers be better off non-tendering the former All-Star?

So let me get this straight: The Brewers turned down an offer from the Red Sox because it wasn't enough. If nothing else develops, instead of returning to the Red Sox and asking for the same offer, Olney thinks the Brewers could let Hardy walk for free? On what planet does that make sense?

Roguejim also has a look at Hardy's trade value, and MLB Trade Rumors has a look at other shortstops that could be available via trade.

Elsewhere on the (hypothetical) market, we have Mat Gamel. MLB Trade Rumors has him listed among third basemen who could be on the move this offseason. The Nashville Sounds' website has an article from Baseball America with Gamel's reaction to a tough season offensively.

Until Jarrod Washburn either becomes a Brewer or signs somewhere else, his name is most likely going to keep coming up. Keep Turning Up the Heat! has a look at Washburn's recent performance and would accept a one year deal for him, but also notes that the 2010 Brewers are probably in trouble if Washburn is their biggest acquisition.

Meanwhile, Mike Cameron's name continues to come up in connection to other teams: The Cub Reporter has a look at Cameron as a potential fit in Wrigley in 2010, but doesn't think the two sides are a match.

As they suggested they would, the Brewers have found another job in the organization for former interim pitching coach Chris Bosio. He'll serve as the team's advance scout next season (FanShot).

Jonathan Lucroy is off to a hot start in the AFL, as he hit his second home run on Friday. Tom H. also got a positive review from a scout who recently saw Lucroy play for Peoria. Lucroy is probably a candidate to represent the Brewers when rosters are announced later today for the Rising Stars Game, which will be played on Saturday and broadcast live on MLB Network.

For more on Lucroy, the rest of the Brewers in the AFL and Alcides Escobar's season debut weekend in Venezuela, be sure to check out today's Fall/Winter League Update.

Elsewhere in the minors, I may have committed a Twitter foul. Yesterday afternoon I made a joke about the somewhat unexciting nature of Eric Arnett's recent Twitter activity, and today his account has been removed. Hopefully I'm not responsible for that. Meanwhile, Seth McClung has a picture of his daughter's Halloween costume.

Yet again, we have less-than-encouraging news about the depth of prospects in the Brewer organization, at least defensively: Alex Pedicini of The Hardball Times has the top four minor leaguers at each position, ranked by Total Zone, and there's not a single Brewer prospect among the 28 players listed.

Around baseball:

Astros: Declined their option for 2010 on Doug Brocail, and re-signed Geoff Blum to a one year deal worth $1.5 million.
Giants: Re-signed Freddy Sanchez to a two year deal worth $12 million, and declined their 2010 option on Noah Lowry. They also removed pitchers Justin Miller and Kelvin Pichardo from the 40-man roster. Miller is expected to become a free agent.
Indians: Removed pitchers Mike Gosling and Scott Lewis and infielder Niuman Romero from their 40-man roster.

Did Robin Yount use a corked bat? A game used Robin Yount bat with cork in it is up for auction, leading to discussion regarding the possibility. There's also a strong possibility the bat was corked sometime after it left Yount's possession. I'm reluctant to believe Yount corked the bat, for a simple reason: If Yount knew the bat was corked, he most likely also knew that someone would be able to figure out it had been tampered with. Why, then, would he ever give that bat away? That's like giving your autograph on the back of a steroid prescription.

Could John Maine be a reclamation candidate for Rick Peterson in 2010? Amazin' Avenue suggests he's a candidate to be non-tendered, but concludes the Mets should bring him back.

Baseball Analysts has an interesting look at pitchers' velocity and how it changes as the season goes along, broken down by several demographics. Most of the data isn't exceptionally surprising, but the difference in pitch speed between April and the rest of the season is pretty striking. (h/t Beyond the Box Score)

I'll admit it: I'm having a hard time getting excited for or paying much attention to the World Series. I have yet to sit through an entire game, and I've fallen asleep before the end of both games 3 and 4. Yet somehow, I don't feel as bad now that I know that Jon Heyman caught writers playing Scrabble and solitaire on their computers during Game 3.

Among the five candidates (Lopes, Royster, Yost, Sveum and Macha), I think you can make a solid case that Jerry Royster was easily the worst Brewer manager of the 2000's, even among a pretty bad field of contenders. With that said, his stuff apparently works in Korea, where he has led the Lotte Giants to back-to-back postseason appearances and signed a $600,000 contract extension over the weekend.

If you're hanging around the site tomorrow afternoon, you may notice some minor changes in the site as part of the visual refresh of the SB Nation platform. The changes will be minor, but will also be step one in a project to improve the load time of sites, which should be good news for everyone.

On this day in 1974, the Brewers acquired Hank Aaron from Atlanta for outfielder Dave May and minor league pitcher Roger Alexander. Aaron would go on to hit .232/.326/.360 in his final two seasons as a Brewer, make the 1975 All Star team and hit 22 home runs.

Happy birthday today to:

Taylor Green, 2009 Huntsville Star and current Brewer representative in the Arizona Fall League, who turns 23.
2007-09 Nashville Sound Lindsay Gulin, who turns 33.
Paul Ridgon, who made 27 starts as a 2000-2001 Brewer after coming over from the Indians in the Bob Wickman-Richie Sexson deal, and turns 34.
Paul Hartzell who appeared in four games for the '84 Brewers and turns 56.

Oh, and the Phoenix Desert Dogs ate mac and cheese after Friday's AFL contest. I don't know if they used this recipe.

Drink up.

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

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This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

Pitcher Purgatory

afh4 — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:38:10 -0000

As always, click on the panels for larger images.

Game 107: Indians 8, Twins 1

Ryan — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 03:28:27 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Not a reliever.

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The season to this point has been a bit of a waste for Aaron Laffey. For the second straight season, he lost a battle for a rotation spot, so he started the season in AAA, only to get called up after Scott Lewis got hurt. After making four starts, he got shunted to the bullpen because he was supposedly good at warming up quickly. Then, in his sixth appearance out of the bullpen, he got hurt, and spent six weeks on the Disabled List. While he was on the shelf, the Indians saw that they didn't have five starters better than Aaron Laffey, so he was put back in the rotation when he was activated.

You would hope tonight's start would finally put to rest the annoying suggestion that Laffey belongs in the bullpen. Aaron went eight innings on 112 pitches, and even struck out five. He's been able to get hitters out the third and fourth time through the order, a step up from some pitchers currently in the rotation.

Trevor Crowe took another step towards being next year's fourth outfielder, getting on base another three times tonight. He hit ninth, which gave the Indians a nice run of base runners the second time through the order onward. Grady Sizemore and Asdrubal Cabrera both collected three hits, which helped to compensate for what looked like a rather thin lineup (Chris Gimenez and Jamey Carroll were the 5-6 hitters, for goodness sakes).

Next Up: Carmona vs. Blackburn, 12:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Aaron Laffey	.251	Jhonny Peralta	-.077
Trevor Crowe	.104	Chris Gimenez	-.059
Grady Sizemore	.094	Shin-Soo Choo	-.016

The Breakdown: April 6-19

Jay — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:41:10 -0000

Record: 4–9
Overall: 4–9
Scoring: 83–87
Old Mood: 6.2
New Mood: 2.6

	W	L	%	GB
Chicago	7	5	.583	-
Detroit	7	5	.583	-
Kansas City	7	5	.583	-
Minnesota	7	7	.500	1.0
Cleveland	4	9	.308	3.5

@ Texas: Lost 9-1, Lost 8-5, Lost 12-8
Toronto: Lost 13-7, Lost 5-4, Won 8-4
@ Kansas CIty: Lost 4-2, Lost 9-3, Won 5-4
@ New York: Won 10-2, Lost 6-5, Won 22-4, Lost 7-3

"The Breakdown" is a summary of the club's performance and major developments over a two-week period, and it will appear on Monday or Tuesday, every other week. At any given moment, we tend to be viewing the season mostly in two timeframes — the first being the last 48 hours, today's game and maybe yesterday's, and the whole season cumulatively from the beginning. The most accessible stats we look at reinforce this point of view — all the main stat pages are showing season-to-date, and we check out the box score to see what happened yesterday. In doing so, we miss a lot of the ebb and flow of the season for the team, and especially for individual players. We patch together vague narratives later on, much of it from inaccurate memories — "Peralta was blocked by Cora," "Francisco was amazing last year" — only occasionally making note of anything in a context larger than a day or two, and missing many in-season developments entirely. It's my hope that the two-week context will produce less emphasis on fluke performances and give more of a sense of in-season trends developing for each player.

THE BIG STORY: The club pitched very badly and lost a bunch of games as a result. The club was outscored 42-21 in the first four games and lost a squeaker in the fifth. Over the next eight games, the club went 4-4 and outscored opponents 58-40, but of course that 18-run margin is only due to one game. With several blowouts in both directions, what record should this team have? In attempt to figure that out, I lined up all 13 games in order of our runs scored, and then lined them up again according to our runs allowed. Here's what those two lined look like when placed one atop the other, like a scoreboard:

INDIANS	22	10	8	8	7	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	1
"cowboys"	13	12	9	9	8	7	6	5	4	4	4	4	2

Note that while the average score of these games was 6.7 to 6.4, the median score was 6–5 (favoring the opposition in both cases). This is actually fine for the offense, who are on their way to being one of the league's best offenses either way. It isn't so fine for the pitching. If you look at it this way, the Indians arguably deserve only a 1–10–2 record, or 2–11 if we split the ties. The Pythagorean record is 6–7, based on the 83–87 run differential. Or we could just toss out the highest and lowest totals from each line — the extreme outliers — which would give us a run differential of 60–72. Bottom line, I think this is one case where the actual record of 4–9 more or less reflects the team's quality of play.

First, the starters.

Games 1-3: 22 ER in 11 IP — 18.00 ERA, 3.7 innings per start
Games 4-9: 22 ER in 31.2 IP — 6.25 ERA, 5.3 innings per start
Games 10-13: 9 ER in 23 IP — 3.52 ERA, 5.8 innings per start

What we're seeing here is mainly that Lee, Carmona and Pavano have all shown some degree of progression from their trio of tranwrecks in Arlington, to merely poor showings against Toronto and K.C., to a very fine showing in New York. Note that the starters allowed as many runs in the first three games as in the next six, in about one-third the number of innings. Even when the club was 0–5, track records suggested that the rotation was going to iron itself out — even Pavano, who has always been a reasonably effective starter when healthy. I don't know what the deal was in that first start, but if he wasn't injured — and it appears he wasn't — then it appears that that was, you know, just one of those flukey, terrible days. Pavano might not make many starts, but for those who have read the back of his baseball card and not just the back page of the Post, he really has little in common with Jason Johnson. Pavano is much more a part of our injury risk than our performance risk, and Carmona may well emerge as the more intractable problem in the rotation. While we have the rotation depth to absorb a few injuries and burnouts here and there, asking our Parade of Filler to cover the #2 spot in the rotation as well seems like too much of a stretch.

Still, the starters have generally and unsurprisingly begun to make their journey back to reasonable run prevention and lasting a reasonable number of innings, and outside of Arlington, the rotation has really not been terrible — but the bullpen has. Did a bunch of extra innings really stress our best middle relievers into being terrible, or is this just another, horrifying example of the unpredictability of relievers? One would think that in a series of blowouts, the extra work burden would fall upon the fifth, sixth and seventh guys in the bullpen, yet Kobayashi, Jackson and Smith are not the ones who have struggled — not by a longshot. Perez, Betancourt and Lewis have pitched a grand total of 21 innings. If we expected them to go 210 IP on the season — 70 IP each — then by now, they should have thrown about 17 IP. Did those extra 4 IP really push them over the brink from being good to being terrible?

I'm not buying it, and I'm sorry to say, the truth is probably worse. These guys are simply struggling, as all but the most elite relievers sometimes do, and they may or may not be able to straighten themselves out. I'm not saying that the rotation's disastrous performance against the Rangers didn't start the season on an off-kilter note, but whatever is wrong with our nominal "setup men" may not be fixed by a stabilized rotation. The Indians rotation and lineup generally have performed like a 90-win team over nearly all of the last four seasons of play, with the bullpen's high-leverage performances representing bulk of the difference between 78 and 97 wins more often than not. It's only a handful of innings, and only half our bullpen looks broken for the moment, but it's a troubling way to start regardless.

We have given 3.5 games of ground in a season where our projectable talent gave us a margin of five or ten wins over our rivals. We have, in essence, turned a solidly favorable season into a projected dogfight in the space of just two weeks.

IN OTHER NEWS: Travis Hafner shocked and delighted Indians fans with a full-on 2006-esque assault on opposing pitchers, at one point smacking three doubles and three home runs over just five games. While this proves nothing (and settles no argument about his contract), his early outburst is very unlikely (less than 10% probability) if Hafner's true skill level is merely at his 2007 level, and profoundly unlikely if he's really no better now than he was a year ago. We probably can never stop worrying about his shoulder problems, which obviously can reduce him to a useless player if he's ever re-injured. But at least there is now significant evidence that apart from health issues, he's still something of a Scary Monster — and considering how little evidence of that we'd seen over the past 32 months, that's definitely big news.

Scott Lewis looked good for a few innings but went down with an arm injury, and he evidently was not disclosing arm pain to the club after winning a rotation spot in spring training. Aaron Laffey returned to claim his rightul spot in the rotation and looked pretty good in his first start.

Finally, the Indians had the pleasure of spoiling the grand opening of New Jackass Stadium, handing the Yankees an embarrasssing 10–2 drubbing in their home debut, which was also the home debut for C.C. Sabathia, who is something of a New Jackass Stadium himself. The Indians hammered the Yankees 22–4 just two days later, including a record-setting 14-run second inning. Yankees fans seethed as Sizemore and Cabrera smacked the first two grand slams in their new ballpark, while Carl Pavano had the temerity to show up his old club with a quality start, and Justin Chamberlain provided more evidence that the Indians simply have his number. The Indians outscored the Yankees by 21 runs, adding to concerns that the stadium's best seats are unsaleable, while some kind of jet-stream effect seemed to turn soft flyballs to right-center into home runs with alarming regularity. It was, all in all, not the debut the Yankees were looking for, and despite emerging with merely a split in the four-game series, it certainly felt like a series win.

WHO FED IT: Victor Martinez exploded out of the box, thriving in his new split-role at 1B and C. Not only was his overall .358/.435/.642 line uniformly stellar, he hardly has had a single bad day so far, producing an OPS of 983 or better in each of the four series played. Asdrubal, on the other hand, started off with a pair of O-fers but has an insane 1130 OPS over the last ten games. (He's still young and could still have some setbacks, but if you told me he was going to make the next five All-Star Games, I wouldn't call you crazy.) Sizemore (959) and Choo (953) both picked up right where they left off in 2008 (aside from a couple of troubling defensive miscues by Choo), and Shoppach (870) and even Garko (914) are making the best of a time-sharing arrangement. Hafner led the club with a .667 slugging average.

Joe Smith more or less wowed us with sidearming goodness, striking out four and allowing just one run over his first 17 batters. He also induced six groundballs and stranded four out of five inherited runners. Masa Kobayashi, a ticking DFA bomb by nearly all accounts, came up big in 6.2 IP and now leads the club with both his 1.35 ERA and his 1.05 WHIP, as 27 opposing batters managed just two singles and a double. Chulk and Laffey also made nice debuts. Kerry Wood lived up to his billing by striking out 7 of the 13 batters he faced. He allowed three of the first five batters he faced to reach base in his first game as an Indian, but he hasn't allowed a baserunner since. Absolute best: Victor. Relative best: Hafner. Lots of folks subscribe to the under-600-over-900 theory on Hafner, and among those, lots of those would have predicted under-600 if forced to make a choice. Relative to reasonable expectations, Hafner's performance over his first 10 games is a shocker.

WHO ATE IT: The entire rotation, led by Carmona and Pavano. Perez was twice as awful as completely terrible -- by which I mean, Jensen Lewis was completely terrible with a 8.10 ERA, and Perez was twice as awful at 16.71. Ben Francisco has been one of the game's worst position players this side of Cody Ransom, combining a .368 slugging average, a 4.7% walk rate, and too often looked like he was playing left field for the first time in his life. Absolute worst: Carmona, but Perez is close. Relative worst: Perez.

Transactions: More Spring Training Cuts

Ryan — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 18:31:33 -0000

3-25-09

Optioned LHP Aaron Laffey to Columbus (AAA)

Thus the Indians are going with Scott Lewis as the fifth starter. Laffey last year lost the battle for fifth starter to Cliff Lee, but he ended up making 16 starts, and was back with Cleveland by the end of April. He started his 2008 stint with the Indians very well, but fell apart in July and spent the rest of the season in Buffalo. His ineffectiveness conincided with a drop in his groundball percentage, not surprising, since his fastball top out in the high 80s and is to say the least very hittable when up in the strike zone.

Laffey will join David Huff and Jeremy Sowers in Columbus, but by the end of the season, the Columbus three might have as many major-league starts as the trio that will start the season in the back of Cleveland's rotation.

3-26-09

Reassigned Andy Cannizaro to Minor League Camp

Claimed RHP Jae Kuk Ryu off waivers from the San Diego Padres; Optioned him to Columbus (AAA)

Placed RHP Jake Westbrook on the 60-day Disabled List (right elbow)

Like with the Salas claim, the Indians are here stockpiling optionable reliever depth. Ryu is recovering from arthroscopic elbow surgery last summer, and the Padres tried to sneak him through waivers when most teams are trying to cut players from their rosters. The Indians, however, had a free roster spot thanks to Jake Westbrook's injury, and with the injury to Adam Miller and the struggles of Masa Kobayashi, were actively looking for bullpen help. They should keep looking.

Indians rotation preview (part 3)

APV — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 02:20:21 -0000

Jeremy Sowers

We are all painfully familiar with Jeremy Sowers at this point. Top draft pick thought to be a short trip away from bigs even his ultimate ceiling was not the caliber of some prospects. And that was pretty accurate, as he debuted in Cleveland with quite a bit of success in 2006. That success was built on good control (5.6 BB%), decent HR rates (1/9IP, 52 GB%), and more than a little luck (.259 BABIP, 4.57 FIP, 3.57 ERA). Since then the picture has been decidedly more bleak. He has coupled strong performances at Buffalo (FIPs under 3.65) with disastrous performances in Cleveland (FIPs over 5).

Sowers fundamental problem seems to be that he simply doesn’t have a very good fastball. I don’t think this is primarily a velocity problem. Last summer he showed the best velocity of his professional career (89.7, up from 85.4 and 88.5), but the results were obviously not great. The club has talked a lot about the separation between his fastball and change – essentially that his changeup isn’t slow enough to keep hitters off balance – but I’m not sure I totally buy that line. Like just about every pitcher, Jeremy’s fastball is his primary pitch (69% last season), used far more frequently than either his slider (16.9) or change (14.0). Despite throwing far fewer of each of them, Jeremy actually got more swinging strikes in 2008 off both his slider and his change than he did off his fastball. Only about 10% of Jeremy’s fastball strikes were of the swinging variety. That’s bad (Laffey, not exactly a stud fastball guy, got 17.5% swinging strikes). I don’t know if it is a deception issue, or the need for more movement, or the need for more separation with his secondary pitches, but I think we should all cheer every time Sowers gets a swinging strike off his fastball. We don’t have pitch f/x data for 2006, but Sowers did use his fastball more in 2006 than he has in any season since. But batters didn’t really get any more or less contact or swing any more or less frequently at it in 2006 than in 2007 and 2008. I think there is good reason to be pessimistic about Sowers unless he starts getting better results, particularly swings and misses, from his fastball.

Scott Lewis and David Huff

Lewis and Huff are the next two reasonable options for the 5th rotation spot (I would be very surprised if Zachson gets serious consideration as a permanent member of the rotation). Both Lewis and Huff have been very successful, when pitching, in the minors. Scott Lewis had a successful four-game debut last season in the bigs – although that success had a lot of luck on its side, in the form of a .225 BABIP.

Lewis is a flyball pitcher (GB < 40% in 2007 + 2008), which means in the absence of a lot of luck he is going to give up HRs at the big league level. Because of this, his success is going to be predicated on keeping guys off base as a way of minimizing the damage. In the minors, Lewis did a great job of this by showing exceptional control (minor league career 5.6%), very good strike out rates (24.8%), and by giving up less than a hit an inning. These are great numbers. Along with concerns about his health, the knock on Lewis has been that his stuff won’t translate against better competition (apparently an 87mph FB doesn’t scare scouts). I say at this point you have to give Lewis the chance to fail. But Lewis is still going to have to couple good control with a decent K-rate…better than he showed last September.

We’ve got no major league numbers on Huff, but he was exceptional last year. Very solid K-rates (~25%), very good BB-rates (~5%), and decent GB-rates (52%). That’s a lot of good. Scouts don’t like him for the same reason Lewis doesn’t get talked about, they question his stuff. I think in Huff’s case the scouts are wrong. Huff has gotten better as he has advanced – I have a lot of optimism about what he’ll do in the bigs at some point.

Pitcher Profile: Carl Pavano

Kyle Boddy — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 06:50:54 -0000

Carl Pavano

#0 / Pitcher / Cleveland Indians

Height: 6-5

Weight: 240

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 08, 1976

Let's get a few things out of the way:

That picture is hilarious.
Carl Pavano was hurt a lot.
Pavano has serious questions about his commitment to strength and conditioning.
I'm an Indians fan.

Now that we have those points out of the way, we can start to analyze Pavano's mechanics. The only reference to his mechanics on the Internet was Mike Pagliarulo's article on Dugout Central. (Note how BJ Ryan tops the list.) Mike mentioned that Pavano has problems "leaking the front side" and "balance position over the rubber." What? He doesn't go into much detail, but he does talk about "leaking the front side" - it is apparently when the front side opens too early and causes the pitching shoulder and arm to "speed up," making him a big injury risk. I actually agree with this quite a bit, and I think it helps to explain the frequent shoulder injuries that Rich Harden experiences. It's something I'll track and research a bit more. (This will probably fall under the "Arm Action" phase of my analysis.)

However, I spot other problems in Pavano's delivery that make him at-risk for injury. Take a look at this unrelated image from NoMaas:

Alright, that was uncalled for. Let's actually do some work...

Per Fangraphs, we can see that Pavano lost velocity on all of his pitches in 2008:

Season	Team	FB	SL	CB	CH	SF	XX	PO
Total *	- - -	63.1% (89.0)	13.1% (81.3)	0.1% (75.7)	17.2% (80.3)	6.4% (81.3)	0.9%	0.4%
2005	Yankees	63.5% (89.4)	11.2% (82.9)	0.1% (75.5)	18.0% (80.6)	7.2% (82.5)	0.9%	0.6%
2007	Yankees	74.5% (90.7)	8.1% (82.1)		17.4% (81.0)		2.0%
2008	Yankees	59.1% (87.9)	19.6% (79.7)	0.2% (76.0)	15.1% (79.5)	6.0% (78.9)	0.5%

R.J. Anderson (of Beyond the Box Score) wrote at Fangraphs that Pavano's swinging strike totals were similar to 2005, indicating that his stuff has held up over the years, even if his shoulder hasn't.

Here's a pitching clip from 2008 vs. Tampa Bay:

You can see what Mike P. was talking about when Pavano "leaks the front side" - he opens his shoulder a bit early, even if he does keep equal and opposite arms.

I see very small signs of Hyperabduction, but strangely enough I see something related to Mike's analysis that might explain the shoulder problems he suffered. Take a look at the frames when Pavano "swims" his glove arm back, forcibly loading the scapula. Not only does this "leak the front side," but it will stress the anterior portion of the shoulder. It is plainly obvious that this is not a "passive" load of the scapula - it is forced.

Tempo: 21-22 frames from maximal leg lift to footplant. Just slightly Below Average. What's more troubling is the fact that Pavano is a "tall-and-fall" pitcher; he simply lifts his leg and puts it back down without drifting through the balance point like most successful pitchers (Lincecum is the gold standard).

Arm Action: Like I said above, Pavano uses a swim move with his glove to load his scapula in a forced abduction pattern. I don't like this. Furthermore, he is late at footstrike - his pitching forearm barely clears his shoulders when his shoulders begin to turn, which probably explains the elbow troubles he's had. Very Bad.

Ball Release: Pretty decent, actually. There's no question that Pavano has intent to throw hard, but the steps leading up to the release phase are what causes him problems. Still, he bends over at the waist - I prefer pitchers to think "stand tall and rotate," which is a Dr. Marshall cue. I want them to stick their pitching arm shoulder into the catcher's mitt. Average.

Followthrough: Bad. I see a lot of Max Scherzer in Pavano's followthrough - he hangs his arm and doesn't firm up his glove side against his shoulder in the deceleration phase. This can cause additional stress on the anterior and posterior portions of Pavano's shoulder.

Still, Pavano's delivery is not that stressful - at least not to cause the litany of random injuries he's suffered. Strained buttocks and cracked ribs that kept him from pitching entirely in 2006? UCL rupture after pitching in spring training and nothing else? There are tons of third-hand reports of him eating candy bars and lounging around the Yankees clubhouse, doing nothing while being unable to throw - and enjoying the experience. These are pretty serious allegations - even Mike Mussina jumped on his back, telling Pavano that he had to "get tough" and that other Yankees teammates were not a fan of Pavano's indifference to physical conditioning.

I think that Carl Pavano has serious question marks about his dedication to conditioning, something that the Indians no doubt understood - signing him to a $1.5m guaranteed contract with an assured spot in the starting rotation. Jay from Let's Go Tribe broke the deal down like this:

1-17 starts — 1.5M
18-19 starts — 1.6M
20-21 starts, <130 IP — 1.7M
20-21 starts, 130-139 IP — 1.8M
22-23 starts, 130-139 IP — 1.9M
24-25 starts, 140-149 IP — 2.2M
26-27 starts, 150-159 IP — 2.5M
28-29 starts, 160-169 IP — 2.85M
30-31 starts, 170-179 IP — 3.25M
30-31 starts, 180-189 IP — 3.45M
32 starts, 190-199 IP — 4.0M
33 starts, 200-214 IP — 4.6M
33 starts, 215-224 IP — 4.9M
34 starts, 225-234 IP — 5.65M
35 starts, 235+ IP — 6.55M

The only problem with the deal I see is the guaranteed slot in the rotation. There's no reason to believe that Pavano is any better than Scott Lewis, Zach Jackson, Aaron Laffey, or Jeremy Sowers, or... hmm. Actually, that's a load of fringy pitchers, many of whom have had shots at the big league and have failed to impress. (Please spare me Scott Lewis' performance at the end of 2008.)

Overall, I think the deal is fine for the Indians. It's a typical Mark Shapiro move - sign a veteran who is considered to be washed up and see if they can get anything out of him. It worked with Aaron Fultz, and uh... Joe Borowski... and not too many others. Still, the point is that these deals cost basically nothing in money and roster space (they can be released painlessly) for a shot at some serious upside. Remember when the Big Hurt was "washed up" and then went to Oakland for the first time?

As a parting note, did anyone know that Eric Mangini is Mark Shapiro's brother-in-law? I didn't, but I'm not much of a Browns fan.