SB Nation - Michael Aubrey

Monday Bird Droppings

Camden Chat — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 11:15:31 -0000

Farewell, Melmo. Farewell.

O's Mora moved by Camden Yards salute
"When Cesar Izturis heard "La Vida Es Un Carnaval," by Celia Cruz after the sixth inning Sunday afternoon, the Orioles shortstop admitted sheepishly that his eyes began to water. And that started a chain reaction, because when his friend and teammate, third baseman Melvin Mora, saw Izturis get teary, he started to choke up. Then there was the female fan near the Orioles' dugout who was bawling as Mora stepped onto the field after the sixth, waved to the crowd and touched his heart as Cruz's salsa tune -- the one that is played before Mora's at-bats at Camden Yards -- blared." Yeah, it's a long excerpt, but one worth sharing. Adios, Melmo. - duck

Orioles use unearned run to beat Blue Jays 5-4

"Michael Aubrey scored the winning run on Brandon League's second throwing error in the 11th inning Sunday, giving the Baltimore Orioles a 5-4 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays and a three-game sweep." How you screw up a throw to 1B from a bunt TWICE in one inning is beyond me. But I'll take the win. - duck

The Schmuck Stops Here: Orioles: RIP 2009

"Can't remember the last time I was this eager to get a season over with, and I'm guessing I'm not alone." No, no your not, Peter. - duck

Orioles’ Roberts Takes Second - NYTimes.com

"(Brian) Roberts is a throwback player, with great speed and gap power, so it is fitting that the player he is most similar to is Fred Dunlap, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Their statistics are 92.8 percent similar, according to the Web site, which is amazing considering that Dunlap played from 1880 to 1891." Hey, it only took the NY Times a month to notice. - duck

Kevin Cowherd: Bringing back Trembley makes no sense

"How do you not change managers after another disastrous second-half collapse and one of the worst seasons in team history?" Kevin, tell us what you really think. - duck

O's focus turns to coaching staff

"Now that the Orioles have exercised manager Dave Trembley's option for 2010, the focus turns to his staff and its future." Might Juan Samuel or someone else be moving along? I'd imagine someone if going to fall on a sword about the lack of fundamentals this team has shown, if it's not going to be Diamond Dave. - duck

Trembley knows his role will change

"The expectations are about to rise demonstrably at Camden Yards, and Trembley knows that if the Orioles are going to win, he has to be more of a disciplinarian and less of a teacher on the field. "I know what I have to do better," said Trembley of his approach. "I've got to drop the hammer more. I've got to drop it. Because losing does not sit very well with the people around here anymore. And I almost paid the ultimate price for that, and so did a lot of other people. That's it in a nutshell, probably more than a nutshell.... I've had great support from the players. Great, tremendous. But they're in for a little bit different approach in Spring Training." This is good stuff to hear from DD. -zk

New attendance low for Camden Yards
"For the second consecutive season, the Orioles have set a new Camden Yards low in attendance. With an announced 17,969 at the finale Sunday against the Toronto Blue Jays, the Orioles drew 1,907,163, in 81 games, a dropoff from the previous low in 2008 (1,950,077), when they had 78 home dates." Everyone who's surprised, raise your hand. Yeah, that's what I thought. - duck

Rise of young O's builds hope -- baltimoresun.com
It's the end of a disappointing season, but the Orioles believe they see the light at the end of the tunnel. -Stacey

NCAA gets tough on advisers for baseball players

"The NCAA Eligibility Center recently distributed a questionnaire to college baseball players that suggests tighter oversight of advisers in the draft. Many agents questioned where the initiative will lead, only seven months after an Ohio judge upheld former Oklahoma State pitcher Andy Oliver's right to representation in the draft." Scott Boras can't become an "adviser" for the 2 years before a junior declares for the draft now? What is this country coming to? - duck

Welcome to Open Thread. It's like a greatest hits collection of nightmares.

Orioles 5, Blue Jays 4: SWEEEEEP

Camden Chat — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:39:23 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

2 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Brandon League reacts after making his second throwing error in the 11th inning of a baseball game allowing Baltimore Orioles Michael Aubrey, pictured at right, to score the winning run Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Baltimore. The Orioles won 5-4. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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The Orioles ended the season on a high note as they swept the Blue Jays for their fourth win in a row. It took 11 innings and a few errors by the Blue Jays, but they got it done. When I said prior to the first game that I wanted a sweep I didn't actually think it would happen, but I'm glad they listened.

Jeremy Guthrie had a personal goal this year of reaching 200 innings pitched, and going into today's game he was at 192.1. He ended up pitching 7.2 innings to give him 200 innings on the nose. He didn't pitch horribly, but he did do what we all expect him to: give up home runs. Three of them, to be exact. Overall he allowed 4 runs on 9 hits. I have high hopes that Guthrie will be able to bounce back in 2010. I don't have anything on which to base that, but I have those hopes all the same.

Nick Markakis had a good final game, collecting 2 hits to make his total on the year 188, the most on the team in 2009. With Brian Roberts on 2nd base in the first inning, Nick hit his 18th home run to give the O's a 2-1 lead. Guthrie gave back that lead with single runs in the 4th and 5th innings. In the bottom of the 6th inning the Orioles loaded the bases with zero outs but after a Matt Wieters ground out and a Markakis strike out it looked like they might waste their opportunity. With two outs Dave Trembley sent Justin Turner in to pinch hit for Melvein Mora. It seemed strange to pull Mora on his last game as an Oriole, but Melvin didn't seem upset at all. He was grinning on the bench receiving congratulations from his teammates, and it turned out to be a good move. Turner lined the first pitch he saw right up the middle to score Roberts and Andino and give the O's a 4-3 lead.

Between innings the fans gave Melvin Mora a standing ovation in appreciation of his years of service to the Orioles. I didn't see the entire game as I mostly checked in during commercials during the Ravens game. I did happen to see the ovation as well as Melvin's teammates giving him hugs and handshakes, and I admit I got a little emotional.

Just after all that, however, Guthrie unfortunately gave up the lead in the top of the 7th inning with another home run. After light hitting John McDonald hit his 4th HR of the year (and 2nd against the Orioles), the score remained tied at 4-4 until the bottom of the 11th, when the O's walked off with a little help from Toronto's pitcher Brandon League.

Michael Aubrey led off the 11th inning with a single, and Lou Montanez followed with a very good bunt up the first base line. League fielded with plenty of time to get Montanez, but threw the ball away. With runners on first and second with on zero outs, Jeff Fiorentino bunted in an attempt to get the winning run to third. Again League fielded, and AGAIN he made a throwing error. Michael Aubrey raced home to score the winning run and end the Orioles season.

-Stacey

Poll

For the final time, who was today's Most Birdland Player?

Nick Markakis (2 run HR)

68 votes

Brian Roberts (2 hits, 2 walks, 2 runs, 1 stolen base)

63 votes

Justin Turner (pinch hit 2 RBI single to give the O's the temporary lead)

35 votes

Jeff Fiorentino (sac bunt that lead to the winning run)

7 votes

173 votes | Poll has closed

Orioles 13, Blue Jays 7: Mmmm....home cookin'

Stacey — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 05:56:29 -0000

Time to stop calling him New Aubrey. Michael Aubrey owned the game tonight, hitting two home runs, a 2 run shot and his first career grand slam. And he continues to rock the awesome high socks. Since coming up from AAA he's held his own with the bat and he plays a heck of a first base. Per FanGraphs he's accumulated a WAR of 0.2 in his 28 games (not including tonight). In 110 games with the Orioles this year, the Original Aubrey's WAR was -0.5. I think it's fair that we disassociate the Aubreys.

Michael Aubrey wasn't the only Oriole to pound the Blue Jays pitching tonight. Matt Wieters had two hits, including a line drive 3 run HR to left field. Cesar Izturis added three hits and scored three runs, and Nick Markakis had a great night as well. Nick hit his 44th double of the year and was on base four times with three hits and a walk.

Jason Berken made his final start of the year for the Orioles and gave up 4 runs in 5 innings. It wasn't a great outing, but it was enough to get his 6th win. Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate combined for three scoreless innings, and after a brief rain delay Chris Ray came in to pitch the 9th. He stank. He didn't record an out and allowed 3 runs, forcing Dave Trembley to bring in Alberto Castillo to close out the game.

O's win their second in a row with two games left in the season. Tomorrow's matchup is Mark Hendrickson vs. Scott Richmond. It's also Camden Chat night at the park, so if you want to meet up with us shoot me an email and I'll give you the details.

Poll

Who was tonight's MBP?

Michael Aubrey (2 HR, 6 RBI)

92 votes

Matt Wieters (2 hits, 3 run HR)

14 votes

Nick Markakis (3-5, 2B, SB, 2 RBI, 2 R)

3 votes

Cesar Izturis (3-5, 2B, SB, 3 R)

1 votes

110 votes | Poll has closed

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

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This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

Fire Everyone! - The Trainers

fleerdon — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 01:40:57 -0000

More photos » by Andy King - AP

IN TONIGHT'S EPISODE: Did Michael Aubrey do too much stretching with his wife, or too little?

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This is the fourth installment in a 12-part series.

The Indians are four days from finishing a second straight season of no significant injuries to a starting pitcher. In the age of multimillion dollar salaries and exploding offenses, it is a significant achievement. Pitching coach Carl Willis immediately turned and knocked on his wooden locker. He then credited the pitchers for buying into what the training staff has preached, and also credited head trainer Lonnie Soloff and strength coach Tim Maxey for being proactive.

Priestle, Scott. "Starting pitchers free of major injuries."
Akron Beacon-Journal, 28 September 2006.

Ah, to be young.

Three years later, do we still believe that the Indians medical staff is all that and a bag of bosu balls? How do we account for that stretch of seeming medical invincibility in the mid-aughts, in light of more recent, less encouraging developments? Was it an unusually young team that slid off the back of the treadmill of time? Have the team's strength and conditioning methods changed for the worse? Or was it merely a run of preternatural good luck, and now the injuries have returned, like Fate in the Final Destination movies, to finish that which was left undone?

Objective analysis of these questions is just this side of impossible. Professional athletes, by definition, can generate physical forces at the extremes of human capability, but few are blessed with the durability to withstand those forces indefinitely. Baseball players, especially, must subject themselves to a brutally long season, and the stress of the sport is borne disproportionately by their dominant-side joints. Add to that the average MLB player's miserable diet, hard-partying lifestyle, and hectic travel schedule, and you have to wonder if the Indians' preference for "high-character" guys is little more than a pretense for choosing players who are, at a minimum, not of a disposition to wreck themselves.

Mind you, baseball is somewhat famously mired in the Dark Ages of fitness. It's a game decided by explosive movements and a short series of 90-foot sprints, but slow bodybuilding-style weightlifting and plodding long-distance runs are still common training protocols. I once was talking to a friend-of-a-friend who had pitched through high-A ball with the Braves before he bowed out with a bad shoulder. "What was your training regimen like?" I asked. He scoffed -- really, he scoffed. "I went back and trained with my college coach in the off-seasons," he said. "You gotta remember, it's such a long season, and the team invests so much in you. Most guys lift like idiots, and what the team wants more than anything is for you not to get hurt."

So contrast that against this anecdotal report of Tim Maxey's spring workouts, from the Cincinnati St. Xaiver High S&C coach's blog:

The Indians place a great emphasis on the physical development of every athlete that signs with the organization ... a priority that every staff member takes very seriously, which begins with the General Manager and filters all the way down towards the Latin American Academies .... All athletes work hard and with discipline during the training and conditioning sessions. They are well-supervised and every workout card is checked off [at the end of the] workout session. There is very little standing around.

Coach Alvarez goes on to describe an unremarkable workout plan. Basic, compound-movement, balanced lifts, some straight-forward sprinting, and a little corrective work at the end of the day. I've read a Maxey quote before to the effect that, "Hey, I don't care how good these guys look with their shirts off," and that's thoroughly in line with enlightened fitness thought as it relates to training athletes in-season.

A digression: American corporations operate under the protection of something called the "business judgment rule," which says, in essence, that the directors and officers do not incur liability to stockholders for business decisions gone awry as long as the decisions were reasonably well-informed and made with independent judgment. The easy version of the BJR is, if you do the right footwork, it doesn't matter how lousy the dance turns out.

Here's what (I think) I can say about the Indians' training staff: Their methods would pass muster under the business judgment rule. (If you're looking for a joke about that one time the Indians publicly sold shares of the club, you'll have to make it yourself.) Soloff and Maxey and their co-workers are competent, credentialed, and by all accounts hard-working individuals with the respect of their peers. They're doing the right footwork. My question for you: Is competence enough? If you say "no," you start an interesting conversation.

There's a lot of crazy stuff going on at the edge of the fitness universe. Two examples that spring to mind: nervous system optimization — check out Z-Health or Feldenkrais — and Active Release Techniques, a sort of targeted massage to cure mobility issues. We're not talking about Operation: Treadstone here, by the way — I'm not proposing anything at all which could compromise the athletes' health. Nor am I endorsing these particular systems — I don't know enough to do that. But I do wonder ... we've got Keith Woolner bringing new-wave mathematics to our statistical analysis. Do we have a mad genius physical therapist studying experimental training techniques? Should we?

I remember a 2006 GQ article that brought up visual perception training for binocularity, back before MLB players started doing that on their handheld Nintendos during bus rides. The scientist behind the system was getting amazing results with a system of ocular testing and training. Then there's a quote [pdf] from none other than John Farrell:

I think [the scientist has] had a tremendous impact on individual players, but the empirical evidence is limited. There isn't a large database that says this person went through these drills and this is where he ended up.

My reaction: So what? Isn't that exactly the sort of chance this organization should be taking? By the time there's a database of empirical evidence, the sun has set on the opportunity to create a competitive advantage. Yes, Farrell's answer demonstrates competence. Is competence enough? (Side note: Still want this guy for manager?)

Even if you're not on-board with this idea of looking for competitive advantage in fitness, I think it must be asked how often Soloff and Maxey have misfired in their more traditional responsibilities, and whether you care how defensible their methods are in light of the results.

To use the most inflammatory example: A slimmed-down Hafner will be "more mobile," hey? Then, on whose watch did he get so big in the first place? What, was he sneaking protein shakes, like a high schooler smoking behind the band trailer? Or how about Jensen Lewis' evaporating velocity act in 2008, passed off as Stomp "leaving something in the tank"? At what point, if not at the start of the season, should we have expected him to be in condition to bring his A-game? June? September? Or, famously, what about Jhonny's deteriorating vision? This guy's defense looked good enough that he beat out Brandon Phillips, and suddenly he starts giving the "olé bulls***" to routine grounders ... and nothing happens until the off-season? I know there's a recovery time for LASIK, but it only takes an afternoon to fit a guy for a pair of RecSpecs. Whose job was it to identify the problems and to get these guys into fighting shape? Who answered for the failure?

For that matter, if I see one common thread in the patented .400-ball Wedge Aprils other than Wedge himself, it's the off-seasons and spring trainings which preceded them. Occam's Razor alone makes me wonder if the problem is at least partly physical -- that our guys just aren't strong enough. You might answer, yeah, but they improve as the season goes on, under the trainers' closer watch. I don't see that as a particularly strong defense. Whose job is it to monitor these guys in the off-season?

Take, for example, Michael Aubrey, who moseyed into Winter Haven a few years ago announcing that he'd spent the off-season doing yoga with his wife. Like most of you, I'm sure, I remember thinking, hmm, that might work. Retroactively, I'm incredulous. Some types of flexibility are good; others, bad. It can be a delicate distinction, by which I mean, not the kind that should be made by some chump in stretch pants making $7 per hour at the Shreveport YMCA. That's doubly true when the body in question is a notably fragile, multi-million-dollar asset. Who, if anyone, signed off on that?

Not necessarily good for baseball. via www.jrmillerfitness.com

And I haven't even started on the veritable parade of young Indians pitchers whose skill-levels seem to start falling on the day their contracts get purchased. Willis calls his training staff "proactive." I guess we're supposed to believe that, if a guy who has devoted most of his life to throwing baseballs inexplicably collapses in the bigs, it's a mental thing, or a mechanical thing, or a long-standing injury thing, or an "adjustment" thing. It's certainly not a strength, conditioning, or mobility issue, because the Indians are proactive about that, you see.

Once more: Every single decision made by the Indians' training staff with respect to these players might be perfectly defensible exercise of sound business judgment. But I contend that there are degrees of defensibility. It's possible to make a decision defensibly and, at the same time, to choose poorly.

I took the Progressive Field guided tour last weekend. You don't get to see the weight room anymore, but as we passed the door to it, the tour guide said that the Indians' training facilities are quite possibly the finest of any professional athletic team's in the country. It made me shake my head a little. Maybe, for all the higher a priority physical conditioning is in this organization, for all the discipline and the supervision and the workout-card checking-off and the not-standing-around, they're just not working hard enough. Or smart enough. Or, hey, maybe they're working too hard. Like I said, it's tough to tell, behind all that competence. And I really do believe they're competent.

Is competence enough?

Orioles 7, Yankees 3: Brian Matusz makes us happy

Camden Chat — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 20:32:20 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

Brian Matusz made Derek Jeter so mad he almost said a bad word to the umpire. Siddown, Jetes. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Last June, according to the story told by Gary Thorne on today's telecast, Brian Matusz had just signed with the Baltimore Orioles. He was in New York for the draft, and saw the new Yankee Stadium being constructed. He said to himself, "I'm going to pitch there someday." He had yet to throw his first professional pitch.

Fast forward 15 months. Brian Matusz got his wish, or, more accurately, earned his destiny and took the mound at the new Yankee Stadium today against the New York Yankees. He entered the day having won his last two outings, and having gone 7.0 IP in both. He'd given up just 5 ER in those 14 innings, and O's fan might have been cautiously optimistic about today's game.

Throw caution to the wind, people - Brian Matusz will be winning a lot more games in Yankee Stadium over the next six years.

Matusz went 7.0 IP again today, and aside from a SAC fly in the 1st inning, didn't allow a run in his last six innings of work. Sure, he had his troubles, but not many. There was a 20-pitch inning, and the Yankees sent five men to the plate in the 7th. That was the most he faced all day - five batters in an inning. It's great to win. But to face just three or four batters an inning, almost every inning? And by a rookie? Against a team that's up by eight games in the AL East? I'll take it.

The offense did its best, for one inning, to make this an easy day for Matusz. In the second inning, AL ROY candidate Nolan Reimold led off with a home run to left-center, Matt Wieters walked after Luke Scott looked terrible, again, and Ty Wigginton singled Wieters to second base. Michael Aubrey singled the two runners over, and Robert Andino singled Wieters in.

Then Brian Roberts came up. Then the ball went out, over the wall in right-center. Pretty quickly, too.

The grand slam by Roberts, his 15th HR of the season, made the game a 6-1 lead for the Orioles, and the way Matusz was pitching, you could almost feel comfortable. Next year, when he's allowed to complete games, a 6-1 lead may be as automatic a win as you can earn in the majors. But, for now, we're at the mercy of Diamond Dave's decisions with the bullpen.

The sight of Chris Ray warming up in the 7th inning was not needed. Really, Dave, really? Chris Ray? In New York? You do remember what happens when Chris Ray pitches in New York, right? Instead, sanity prevailed, Matusz was allowed to finish the 7th, and Danys Baez came in to pitch the 8th, and did so in a completely professional and non-exciting manner. Thank you, Danys. Jim Johnson finished the game. That's all I'm saying about Jim Johnson today. I will not spoil the good mood.

The Orioles go for the improbable series sweep tomorrow, and here's hoping the O's close them out. -duck

Poll

Who was the Most Birdland Player for Sept. 12, 2009?

Brian Matusz (W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 K, 2 BB)

158 votes

Nolan Reimold (2-3, HR, RB, amazing first-row catch of foul ball)

6 votes

Brian Roberts (3-4, Grand Slam, 4 RBI, 1 R, and, oh yeah, a GRAND SLAM. Plus a walk.)

62 votes

Danys Baez (1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1K, not being Chris Ray while in New York)

0 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed

Orioles acquire first baseman Michael Aubrey from Indians

SC — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 20:32:17 -0000

(via blog.cleveland.com)

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The Orioles have picked up minor league first baseman Michael Aubrey from the Cleveland Indians in exchange for a player to be named later. Aubrey was the 11th pick in the 2003 draft, now 27 years old.

At Triple-A this season, Aubrey was hitting .292/.322/.448 with five home runs, so it's not like this is a deal being made to make room for an Aubrey Huff trade or anything, or at least that doesn't seem likely. Given his age, production, and status in the Indians system, this looks like nothing more than a deal made to reinforce the roster at Norfolk.

In 397 career minor league games, Aubrey has hit .295/.356/.475. He doesn't walk much, but he rarely strikes out. He was a college star at Tulsa, hitting .420/.505/.733 with 18 homers in 63 games in his final season there, and has never matched that home run total in a single minor league season. His high came in 2004, when he hit 15 between Kinston (High-A) and Akron (AA).

Nothing to get all excited about, nothing to read into. Just a minor move for an available player that hopefully helps Norfolk out.

Meet the NRIs: Position Players

Ryan — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 01:51:43 -0000

The woefully-late conclusion to a tour of the Indians' Non-Roster Invitees:

Player	Position	2009 Age	2008 Level	Organization	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	2B	HR
Damaso Espino	C	26	AAA	KC	36	.167	.286	.167	0	0
			AA	CLE	102	.275	.342	.304	3	0
Michael Aubrey	1B	27	MLB	CLE	45	.200	.280	.333	0	2
			AAA	CLE	285	.281	.328	.418	18	7
			AA	CLE	103	.282	.330	.456	10	2
Jordan Brown	1B	25	AAA	CLE	420	.281	.337	.417	30	7
Andy Cannizaro	IF	30	MLB	TB	1	.000	.000	.000	0	0
			AAA	TB	171	.240	.311	.304	8	1
			AAA	CLE	84	.321	.374	.476	4	3
Tony Graffanino	IF	37	AAA	CLE	89	.315	.384	.416	7	0
Andy Marte	3B	25	MLB	CLE	235	.221	.268	.315	11	3
Wes Hodges	3B	24	AA	CLE	504	.290	.354	.466	29	18
Jesus Merchan	SS	28	AAA	ARI	436	.339	.373	.443	23	4
Beau Mills	1B	22	A+	CLE	482	.293	.373	.506	34	21
Wilson Valdez	IF	31	Did Not Play
Stephen Head	1B/OF	25	AA	CLE	404	.290	.325	.455	24	13
Michael Brantley	LF	22	AA	MIL	420	.319	.395	.398	17	4
Matt LaPorta	LF	24	AA	MIL	302	.288	.402	.576	23	20
			AA	CLE	60	.233	.299	.350	1	2

Catchers

Because one can never have enough catchers early in spring, Damaso Espino joins the five catchers on the Indians' 40-man roster in major-league camp. He played with Akron last year after the Indians purchased him from the Kansas City organization.

Infielders

Michael Aubrey and Andy Marte were both outrighted off the 40-man roster in recent months. Both were considered top prospects at one time, but now neither figure into the Indians' current or future plans. I think Marte still has a chance of becoming an everyday major-league player, but Aubrey's chances are fading fast. For much more on Aubrey and Marte, click on their respective player links at the bottom of this post.

Jordan Brown, after two very good seasons in Kinston and Akron, stalled out last year in Buffalo, possibly due to a knee injury. Brown doesn't have the physical attributes that scouts look for, but has been, with the exception of 2008, a model of consistency at the plate. He has no chance of making the major-league club this spring, but should be the regular first baseman with the Clippers.

Tony Graffinino has an outside shot of making the team as a utility infielder. He was most recently seen in the majors with Milwaukee in 2007. He injured his knee that late that season, didn't sign with an organization until next June, when he signed a minor-league deal with Cleveland. He played with Buffalo the rest of the season, though still having problems with his knee.

Andy Cannizaro and Jesus Merchan both are fighting for a spot on the Columbus roster. Cannizaro got one at-bat with Tampa last season, and spent the rest of his season with AAA affiliates. Merchan posted good, but BA-heavy numbers with AAA Tuscon last season. If he had any speed, he'd be a prototypical NL utility infielder. Wilson Valdez is also in the mix for Columbus; he played in Korea and Japan last year.

With Mark DeRosa a free agent at the end of the season, this is a big season for Wes Hodges. He's made it to AAA in his third professional season, right on schedule for a college player, and although Jhonny Peralta seems fated to eventually move to third, the DeRosa signing delayed a final decision a year, giving Hodges another season to make an impression. His offensive numbers look fine; I think the Indians are foremost looking for defensive improvement.

Beau Mills is a prospect with big power potential combined with promising plate discipline. He'll be heading to AA Akron, which is usually a big jump for young sluggers. He was drafted as a third baseman, but only played there in 8 games last year; first base will be his position as a major-leaguer.

Outfielders

Stephen Head was drafted as a good defensive first baseman, but can now play the outfield as well. That versatility is offset by very pedestrian offensive production partly explained by a shoulder injury early last year. He should be a reserve at either Akron or Columbus.

Michael Brantley is an intriguing prospect. He's an advanced hitter for his age (he's compiled 57 more walks than strikeouts in his professional career), and should be a successful base-stealer in the majors. But he hasn't hit for any power yet, and plays positions (left field and first base) that normally carry with them power expectations. He's still just 22, so there's still time for him to develop into an everyday player or better.

Matt LaPorta was the centerpiece of the CC Sabathia trade, and although the Indians aren't expecting much from him in 2009 at the major-league level, he should be in left field or at first base for the Indians in 2010. He dominated the Southern League, a pitcher's league, in 2008, slugging 47 extra-base hits in 302 at-bats while walking 45 times.

Transactions: Indians Sign Carl Pavano

Ryan — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 01:01:46 -0000

Signed RHP Carl Pavano to a One Year, $1.5M Contract

The Indians are facing a difficult obstacle in 2009: replace three-fifths of last year's starting rotation, not only in performance but innings. Only three starting pitchers on the 40-man roster threw more than 100 major-league innings last year: Cliff Lee (223.2), Fausto Carmona (120.7) and Jeremy Sowers (121.0). So even though there is talented starting depth on the roster, endurance is going to be a problem. One way to get around that is to add more depth, which this signing was designed to do.

Rather than go after an innings-eating pitcher with less ability, the Indians decided to purchase a lottery ticket; in other words, pay a little for the remote possibility of a big payday. Pavano hasn't pitched a full season since his last year in Florida, and even before that has had problems staying on the mound. Since July of 2005, he's only thrown 45.7 innings. Hence the Indians wrote into the contract an extensive incentive structure (scroll down) based on starts and innings pitched. If he somehow makes 35 or more starts and pitches more than 235.0 innings, he'll have earned $5.3M in bonuses. Even a more realistic season will net Pavano much more in bonuses than his base salary.

Even if we make that leap of faith and assume Pavano can be an everyday starter, what kind of performance will the Indians be getting? I don't think even the Indians know. Pavano might be extremely motivated, he might be relieved to have moved on from New York, and he might finally be healthy, but that doesn't change the fact that he's essentially been out of baseball for 3.5 seasons. The way the contract is written, there's not a lot the Indians can lose, but their odds of getting quality innings from Pavano are likewise remote.

Designated 1B Michael Aubrey for Assignment

The Indians still had an option year on Aubrey because of all his injuries, but his future with the team had long since been derailed. Michael actually had a relatively healthy 2008, and finally got some at-bats in the majors, but he only posted a .746 OPS for Buffalo, not good enough for a 26-year-old first baseman.

A Brief History of Recent 11th Overall Picks

Russ Oates — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 13:00:07 -0000

One of the things Purple Row has always followed closely has been the amateur draft in June. It will be no different in 2009.

The Colorado Rockies return to the top half of the draft in 2009, after picking 25th in 2008. The Rockies would have had the 10th pick in the draft, but the Nationals failed to sign their first-round pick, RHP Aaron Crow. As a result, the Nationals obtained a second first-round pick. That 2009 pick is slotted right after his 2008 selection. He was ninth overall, so the Nationals have the 10th pick in 2009 (as well as the first overall pick).

Now, let's look at how the 11th overall pick has fared since the start of the decade. As I wrote in last year's look at the 25th pick, this review is not meant to determine how the Rockies' selection will pan out. It can, however, help us see how other teams approached this slot.

Breakdown:

College - 4

High School - 5

2000 - Dave Krynzel, Brewers, OF, High School - Dave Krynzel was at one point the center fielder of the future for the Brewers--it didn't prove true. He did well all the way through Double A, though a second half slump occurred at that level in 2003. He stayed at the Triple-A level in 2004 and 2005, but saw time with the Brewers in both years. During the 2006 offseason, Krynzel was involved in a six-player deal with the D'Backs. He hasn't seen the majors since 2005 and played in only 4 games for Tucson in 2008 before being released.

2001 - Kenny Baugh, Tigers, RHP, Rice - Beware Wayne Graham-coached pitchers. Wayne Graham is the head coach for the Rice University Owls and if you look at the track record of pitchers drafted during his tenure there, you'll see that many of his pitchers wind up having surgery. Baugh is one of those guys. Baugh actually pitched quite well that summer in low-A and Double-A ball. He quite possibly could have seen Detroit that same year, but in August he had shoulder problems. He missed all of 2002 before returning in 2003. Though he pitched well enough, his stuff was never like it was before the surgery. Baugh was shipped to the Padres during the '05-'06 offseason, and he never pitched for them after injuring his shoulder. Baugh moved to the Marlins' organization in 2007 and spent the end of May to the end of July moslty in the bullpen.

2002 - Jeremy Hermida, Marlins, OF, High School - Right now, Hermida stands as the most successful 11th overall pick from this decade. 2008 was a bit of a letdown for Hermida after his 2007. He had a 3.3 VORP in 2008, down from his 27.3 VORP the previous year. His EqA went down to .256 (slightly below average) from .300 in 2007. The Marlins have already started to look for suitors.

2003 - Michael Aubrey, Indians, 1B, Tulane - Aubrey made his major league debut in 2008 (15 games over two stints). His lack of power for a first baseman (48 in six seasons, 15 his season best) has held him back, but if given playing time he'd likely be an average first baseman.

2004 - Neil Walker, Pirates, C, High School - Walker would play well at one level and then receive a promotion. He would struggle at the new level, return there the next season, and then receive a promotion. You should know what happens next. Walker has since moved to third base. Repeating Triple A in 2008, Walker had a .684 OPS, but did have 16 homers. The Pirates drafted Vanderbilt's Pedro Alvarez back in June.

2005 - Andrew McCutchen, Pirates, OF, High School - McCutchen is on the verge of playing in Pittsburgh--if that's a good thing. He's steadily advanced up the ladder, spending all of 2008 in Triple A. As a 21-year-old, he hit .283/.372/.398. McCutchen, who plays center field, has speed, stealing 34 bases in 2008. He did, however, get thrown out 19 times.

2006 - Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks, RHP, MIssouri - Hey, we know this guy with heterochromia. He's going to be a good 'un.

2007 - Phillipe Aumont, Mariners, RHP, Canada/High School - Aumont should stay a starter as long as he can, but he did spend time as a reliever in 2008. Aumont is a very raw product, and Mariners fans will need to be patient with him.

2008 - Justin Smoak, Rangers, 1B, South Carolina - Smoak hit .383 with 23 homers for the Gamecocks in 2008 before being drafted by the Rangers. He played in 14 games after signing and should move fairly quickly, being one of the more polished hitters in the draft.

Hermida and Scherzer have had the most success. I'll predict that McCutchen and Smoak will join those two as proven major leaguers in the future. Aumont is too far away from making any predictions yet, and Walker, while added to the 40-man roster in November, will have to move off of third for Alvarez or move to another team if he hopes to play in the majors. Even then, it's not a good bet to make that he'll be a successful major leaguer.

Thoughts? Questions? Comments? What should future installments be?