SB Nation - Jack Egbert

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:09:07 -0000

Mat Gamel is congratulated Mike Cameron and Alcides Escobar after hitting a three-run home run during the sixth inning Sunday. Somehow, I skimmed over 1000 posts on over 300 baseball sites this morning and didn't find a single mention of it.

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Some things to read while getting the baby to smile.

The Brewers have a day off today to reflect on the 2009 home season, which saw them draw 3,037,197 fans, down just 31,000 from last season, despite posting their first losing record at home since 2004. Seth McClung was sad he didn't get to pitch in the last game, but also offered some insight into what the clubhouse is like on the final day at home. And tristarscoop has a photo of the carnage in the final sausage race.

For at least three Brewers, the off day will be an opportunity to see a doctor. Casey McGehee (knee), Mark DiFelice (shoulder) and Mike Burns (shoulder) will all see specialists today in the hope of firming up a prognosis and offseason plan. McGehee isn't sure if he'll need offseason surgery to repair a knee that's been sore for months, DiFelice thinks he'll be fine but wants to make sure, and Burns recently revealed he's had shoulder soreness for several days now.

Has Ken Macha managed his last game at Miller Park? He doesn't seem to think so. If he does return next season he could have a new pitching coach, as the team is reportedly considering making an offer to former A's and Mets coach Rick Peterson (FanShot).

Dave Bush had another rough outing yesterday, including hitting opposing pitcher Joe Blanton with a curveball while Blanton was attempting to bunt. That HBP put him back in the major league lead at 15. That's the fifth highest single season total in Brewer history, which is pretty impressive considering Bush has only pitched 114.1 innings this season. No pitcher has ever plunked more than 16 batters while pitching fewer than 120 innings: Bush will likely get one more start to attempt to become the first.

Josh Butler also pitched in yesterday's game, and his rough outing will be his final Brewer appearance this season. While the team is headed out on the road today, Butler is headed back to Huntsville, then to the Brewers' training facility in Arizona to get ready for the Arizona Fall League.

Speaking of HBPs, Jason Kendall picked up his 247th on Saturday on a pitch from Kyle Kendrick. Plunk Everyone has, among other things, the full list of every player with double initials that has hit Kendall. Unfortunately, plunkings mustn't be weighted very heavily in the Elias rankings, as Kendall is starting to slide down the charts and now sits near the bottom of Type B free agents.

Prince Fielder is up to 42 home runs this season, and Plunk Everyone ranked him third in all of baseball in home run difficulty. Follow the link for an explanation: I think the stat has some merit.

Ryan Braun picked up his 30th home run in dramatic fashion on Saturday night. The Dugout Doctors list him as one of their current players to build a franchise around, but Fake Teams asks if he's getting overhyped.

In the minors:

Project Prospect has ranked pitchers from each level of the minors by out %. In AA, Donovan Hand, Bobby Bramhall and Mike McClendon cracked the top 50, and Dan Meadows, Efrain Nieves, Nick Tyson and Wily Peralta made the top 50 for the Timber Rattlers. No Brevard County Manatees or Nashville Sounds made the lists.
Maverick Lasker (11th) and Max Walla (20th) both appeared on Baseball America's rankings of the top 20 prospects in the Arizona Rookie League this season.

If you're already feeling nostalgic for 2009, Big League Stew has a look back at the Brewers season that was.

Baseball Digest Daily has the Brewers holding steady at #17 in their power rankings.

Around baseball:

Mets: Claimed pitcher Jack Egbert off waivers from the White Sox.

Ever wonder what 2009 would have looked like if the Brewers had somehow found a way to hold on to all the pitchers they've discarded over the years? The rotation might have included Justin Lehr, who was getting ready to give up on baseball before the Reds called him up this season. His numbers as a Red haven't been fantastic, but he might actually be an improvement over some of the guys the Brewers have trotted out there this season.

If the Brewers decide not to retain Mike Cameron this offseason, here's another name to add to the list of potential replacements: Oakland's Rajai Davis. A's Nation thinks the Brewers might be a candidate to acquire him, but also thinks they might be willing to give up Brett Lawrie in exchange, and that's absolutely ridiculous. Elsewhere in center field, Rick Ankiel doesn't expect to return to St. Louis. And if the Brewers end up needing another gritty utility infielder to replace Craig Counsell, Omar Vizquel wants to play another year.

If you're already looking ahead to the fall and winter seasons, get your calendar out: The Baseball Zealot has a list of important dates for you.

Or, if you're looking forward to the hot stove season, here's something for you: Circling the Bases has the top ten free agents for this offseason. Ben Sheets, who still hasn't pitched since last September, checks in at #10. Given his extended absence and his history regarding work ethic and rehab, I'm guessing he's going to show up in someone's camp next spring out of shape and/or unable to pitch. In fact, I'll be surprised if he passes a physical.

Speaking of guys who are out of shape, stop back later today for a special surprise. That's all I'm saying about it.

How long can you extend your career, based purely on the ability to get on base? Ken Griffey Jr. is batting .210 this season for the Mariners, but leads the team in walks and drew the 1300th of his career yesterday. That's over 22 miles in walks.

I have two email addresses that get constant emails from MLB.com which I typically delete without reading. It's good to know that's unavoidable: MLB has reportedly been ignoring requests to be removed from their mailing list. That's always a solid business practice.

Finally, after months of rumor and panic, we have a definitive list of the symptoms associated with Royals Fever.

Can you imagine Miller Park being used for this? Seamheads has the story of Milwaukee's Athletic Park being renovated in 1892 to become the home of "The Last Days of Pompeii." Interesting stuff.

Happy birthday today to Brian Banks, who turns 39, and Mike DeJean, who also turns 39.

Oh, and today's Mug probably would have come out ten minutes earlier if Rob Neyer hadn't introduced me to Worldometers.

Drink up.

Mets claim Jack Egbert off waivers

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 21:37:48 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

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The Mets have claimed minor league pitcher off waivers from the Chicago White Sox, according to MetsBlog.com. Egbert, a former top prospect of the White Sox, posted a 5.05 ERA in 30 games this season in Triple-A Charlotte. Egbert caught the Sox's attention early in his career, but hasn't been able to adjust in Triple-A since his fist call up in 2008. Prior to the 2008 season, Egbert was 35-24 with a 2.62 ERA in 104 appearances.

The Mets may try to salvage some of Egbert's potential, maybe see if he is tipping his pitches or try to develop a more effective out pitch. In the meantime, he is Triple-A bound.

This Week in White Sox Minor League Baseball

larry — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 10:00:26 -0000

Carlos Torres, lone deserving representative to the AAA All-Star Game.

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This week:

I was going to lead off with the revitalization of Jack Egbert, who has been impressive since his return to a starting role. However, last night, after another impressive beginning, he took a line drive to his pitching hand and left the game. Charlotte is notoriously tight-lipped about injuries so no further info available at this point. In eight starts, Egbert had far better results than as a reliever: 43 IP, 32 hits, 5 BB, 35 K.
Carlos Quentin will be starting his rehab assignment for the Knights tonight, where he is scheduled to play three innings.
Carlos Torres will be representing the Knights at the AAA All-Star Game. His line has been very good this season: 86 IP, 67 hits, 35 BB, 84 K. Cole Armstrong also somehow made the team.
Promotions: Jhonny Nunez to Charlotte; Henry Mabee to Birmingham; Gregory Infante to Winston-Salem; and Nevin Griffith to Kannapolis.
Tyler Flowers: .286/.431/.533. Read this interview with him by Sox Examiner.
Flowers and Dayan Viciedo were granted permission from the White Sox to participate in both the Futures Game on July 12 and the Southern League All-Star Game the following night. The Barons are hosting the latter game this season.
Bryan Morgado, the third round pick out of Tennessee with control issues, had quite a day pitching in the Cape Cod League: 5 IP, 1 hit, 1 BB, 13 K. His price may be going up.
As The Cheat noted earlier this week, the White Sox were silent at the opening of the signing period for international free agents. The organization has long done a poor job in this facet, for a variety of reasons. However, it appears that they may have played the role of the blind squirrel with a nut named Miguel Gonzalez. This 18 year old catcher out of Venezuela piqued my interest last season while playing in the DSL because of his excellent plate discipline. He's made a splash so far in his stateside debut for Bristol, adding some power (in a small sample size) to his numbers: .429/.467/.750.
Josh Phegley, first round supplemental pick, was assigned to Kannapolis. The catcher has so far appeared in three games, all at DH, as he works himself back into catching shape and familiarizes himself with the pitchers. So far, as expected, he hasn't had much trouble adjusting to professional hitting.
Sox Machine gives his midseason prospect rankings for Charlotte and Birmingham and Winston-Salem and Kannapolis.
Nick Ciolli and Kyle Colligan have both had no trouble with Pioneer League pitching. These two outfielders are going to be putting pressure on some of the laggards at higher levels.
Tyler Kuhn isn't one of those laggards. He's been hitting very well since his promotion to the Dash: .400/.419/.475.

Jose Contreras Is (on his way to) History

The Cheat — Sat, 09 May 2009 04:22:16 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

When you can't get anyone out, you talk to the glove

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The White Sox have now lost their last 8 games started by Jose Contreras, a streak which started before the All-Star break last season with a 22-hit loss to the Matt Harrison-led Rangers.

It's the longest such streak since... the Sox lost 9 straight Contreras starts in '07.

But that streak probably doesn't count. Contreras was removed from the rotation in the middle of that streak and actually earned a victory pitching out of the bullpen in an extra innings game. So it's actually the longest streak for a guy who made only appearances in the rotation since '06 when the Sox lost a retrosheet-era team record 10 straight Javier Vazquez starts. But Vazquez pitched pretty well over those 10 starts, with an ERA of 4.22. He just happened to be the recipient of 1.8 runs of support over those games including a 1-0 complete game loss to Kason Gabbard and the Red Sox.

Contreras... hasn't.

The End of Jose Contreras

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009	0-5	6	6	0	0	0	0	29.2	40	30	27	4	16	17	8.19	1.89
Losing Streak	0-5	8	8	0	0	0	0	35.1	53	37	34	5	18	21	8.66	2.03

The beat writers have been asking about removing Contreras from the rotation since his third start of the season. Looking at those numbers above, with Contreras showing no signs of improvement, control that can only be described as deficient, no forkball and only an occasionally passable slider, there's not much argument for keeping him in the rotation. Ozzie Guillen agrees:

"We are going to start somebody elese (sic) against Cleveland. We've got give days to figure that out (who).

"Jose feels bad, disappointed like everybody else. It's not fair to the club -- or to him -- to keep sending him out there," Guillen said, indicating the team will make a decision in the coming days once everyone has had a chance to discuss what's best for Contreras. "He's not happy with himself. He feels like he let the team down.

"We need to figure out how to get him back on track."

But a quick look at the pitchers who would be called upon to replace him, and you can easily see why the Sox have given Contreras so much rope.

Personal favorite Jack Egbert hasn't even been able to get AAA hitters out this season.
Lance Broadway -- NO
Aaron Poreda might be the best option, but he's still learning how to throw off-speed pitches in Birmingham, which is a good reason to ignore his stats and trust the Sox scouts. He'll be up when they say he's ready, or when the Sox feel he can learn on the fly at the big league level.
Clayton Richard seems like the most likely candidate, as the only member of this list who was legitimately competing for a starting spot in spring training. But Ozzie only used him for an inning tonight and might not want to move him for fear of having on one lefty in the pen.
DJ Carrasco is a nice low-leverage swingman who might be able to give you a decent start in a doubleheader or suspension situation, but you don't want to turn to his two-pitch repertoire every 5 days.
Scott Gregor has floated the name Carlos Torres, who's a guy I've paid zero attention to over the years. He's having a nice season so far in Charlotte, but, but, just ask Larry. I'm not really qualified to lodge much of an opinion here.
Others have speculated that Wes Whisler could be a candidate, but he doesn't have the minor league track record to suggest his good start to the season is anything more than a fluke.

Is this the end of Jose Contreras in White Sox uniform?

It would be foolhardy to give up on Contreras with nobody banging on the door screaming Look at me! I can get major league hitters out. And he can easily fill the Lance Broadway role of pitching only in blowouts (or the 11th inning of a tie game with a well-rested Bobby Jenks eating candy in the bullpen). So Contreras isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Personally, I feel bad for Contreras. He struggled with some nagging injuries last year that took a few MPH off his fastball. He took a little break, and when he finally came back and appeared to be throwing well he blew out his Achilles. So he worked his ass off in the off-season to get back into shape and beat everyone's expectations by legitimately making the opening day roster only to lay an egg in each of the season's first 6 starts and be removed from the rotation.

Maybe he pushed too hard to get back from the injury. Maybe he just needs to work every other day in the pen to get the feel for his forkball and remember how to throw a well-located fastball.

Maybe he's done for good.

Alexei Ramirez Gets the Dropsies

The Cheat — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 03:38:30 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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Alexei Ramirez and the White Sox had a night to forget Friday.

Less than 24 hours after I praised his defense at shortstop, Ramirez had the worst 1-error game I've ever seen. By my count, he missed/dropped 5 different plays.

The most damaging missed opportunity was the lone credited error in the first inning. Aaron Hill hit a routine double play ball to Ramirez after Marco Scutaro led off the game with a single. Ramirez not only flubbed the play, he kicked the ball far enough away that Scutaro was able to advance to third. More importantly, nobody was out, so Gavin Floyd's strikeout of Alex Rios was merely out number one instead of the end of the inning. By the time the inning was over, Toronto had used a couple of doubles and a steal (a recurring theme) to put up 3 runs after the Sox should have been out of the inning.

Floyd had a good curveball working, but much like Colon last night, his fastball kept finding the center of the plate. The Jays did not miss it.

The Sox didn't appear to be completely out of it until the 3rd when they started the with two consecutive hits, a double by Brian Anderson and a single by Chris Getz, to put runners on the corners with nobody out. A walk to Carlos Quentin would load the bases with 1 out, but Jim Thome and a Jermaine Dye, who didn't see a strike before 3-2, couldn't do anything.

Then it was Ramirez' turn to really put things out of range. With Floyd chased from the game and Jack Egbert on the mound, Ramirez dropped the first two balls he saw, one a bad exchange on another easy double play ball and the other a bad exchange on high chopper behind the mound. Ramirez' troubles would continue into the the 6-run 6th, with yet another dropped exchange following an intentional walk to load the bases. Needless to say, that walk would score, as Jack Egbert got a bunch of groundballs, but few recorded for outs.

* * * * *

When the Blue Jays recorded their 3rd double and 3rd stolen base of the evening by the third inning I got curious. And when I get curious, I head to my B-R Play Index account.

In the time it takes Alexei Ramirez to drop a glove exchange, I learned that the White Sox have only had 5 games with Ozzie Guillen as a manager in which they've hit 3+ doubles and stolen 3+ base. But the Blue Jays didn't stop at 3 doubles, of course, by the end of the 6th they had 6 doubles to go along with those three steals. The Sox hadn't had such a game since 1966. And by the 7th, the Jays had upped their doubles to 7, which (combined with the SBs) the Sox haven't done in the easily searchable Retrosheet era.

* * * * *

Revisiting a theme from the first week of the season, the Sox followed up a game in which they nearly got shut out by Adam Eaton of all people, with a blanking at the hands of Brian Tallet and the back-end of the Jays pen. I could probably write a few paragraphs on the Sox offensive struggles, but you're not even reading anymore and I'm not a masochist. I'll just write what I wrote on my twitter account; when you get shut down by Adam Eaton and Brian Tallet on back-to-back nights, it's not the pitching... it's you.

Fine, one more... It was the worst shutout loss since 1998.

White Sox Minor League Affiliates Preview

larry — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 22:30:09 -0000

This time of year, there’s a lot of talk around the water cooler about where to go for a vacation during spring break or the summer. Should we set out for Fort Mill, South Carolina to experience the mill-fort? Visit Birmingham to see the world’s largest cast iron statue? Dash to the Camel City to introduce the children to the tobacco and doughnut industries? Or head to lovely Kannapolis, North Carolina to visit the Curb Museum of Music and Motorsports?

I find such questions silly. While "culture" is nice, I – like the rest of the normal population – choose my vacation destination based upon the minor league baseball available. So let’s explore after the jump what each of the White Sox full season affiliates has to offer the minor league aficionada.

Charlotte Knights (AAA, International League)

The Castle has long been barren of legitimate star power. Not since Joe Crede and Jon Garland passed through earlier this decade has this team seen real prospects. And this year, at least to start, appears to be no different.

Look at this roster. It’s awful. There isn’t a position player younger than 25. Heck, there are only a few pitchers who are. And, not coincidentally, those are some of the only guys to even be mildly interested in following. Their opening day starter was John van Benschoten. Think about that. Rounding out the rotation will likely be Lance Broadway, Wes Whisler, Jeff Marquez, and Carlos Torres. Fugly. The recent addition of Justin Cassel to the roster (although as an inactive) may mean that he will be in the rotation.The only position players to note are co-catchers Donny Lucy and Cole Armstrong (although Armstrong left today's game with an apparent leg injury, status uncertain). Jayson Nix, once he comes of the DL, will be headed here, as well.

I’ve already covered quite a few of the Knights pitchers here. Jon Link is an especially interesting arm. Jack Egbert’s move to the bullpen should be intriguing as well; he’s the sort who may benefit from the little bit extra on his fastball and the (likely) increased MPH differential between his pitches now that he’ll only be expected to pitch an inning or two. The early return for both pitchers (and the Knights as a whole) were not promising today.

A Prospect to Watch: Justin Cassel is a 24 year old righty who was drafted in the seventh round in 2006. A shoulder injury in 2007 set him back but he rebounded in 2008 at Birmingham to put together an acceptable campaign. He’s certainly not going to overpower anyone – he’s lucky if his sinking fastball reaches 90 MPH – and his curve and change are both average pitches. However, he could provide useful starter depth and a future as a swingman-type is reasonable.

Vacation? Wait until summer for some promotions.

Birmingham Barons (AA, Southern League)

Now the Barons, on the other hand, are stacked. The top five White Sox prospects – Gordon Beckham, Aaron Poreda, Brandon Allen, Dayan Viciedo, and Tyler Flowers – will all be starting the season in Birmingham. It also appears as if someone really wants this team to win as some guys who probably should be playing in Charlotte – most notably outfielders David Cook and Stefan/Maurice Gartrell – are going to be lending their experience.

While the rotation will be headed by Poreda, Lucas Harrell will look to continue to justify his protection on the 40 man roster in his second year removed from elbow surgery. They’ll be joined by 2007 third round pick John Ely. Brian Omogrosso is apparently back to starting, as he takes the hill tonight in Barons' Southern League opener. Clevelan Santeliz, the random addition to the 40 man roster this offseason, will start the year on the DL. That could be a real injury or, for a guy as raw as Santeliz is, that could be code for "extended spring training" or even "visa issues" - as a member of the 40 man, Santeliz needs to be assigned to some roster. Other notable pitchers include Swisher bounty Jhonny Nunez.

In the field, John Shelby will be looking to cut down on his strikeouts and CJ Retherford will be looking to validate Hawk’s faith in him as his “Minor League Pick to Click.” Good luck, CJ.

A Prospect to Watch: We all know about the big-time prospects so let’s focus on John Ely. The 23 year old righty has an average fastball in the low 90s and equally average, though promising, curve and change. His K/BB says he’s got good control. If he can improve one of his secondary offerings - his curve can flash as plus - he could profile as a #4 starter.

Vacation? Go now before everyone has left.

Winston-Salem Dash (High A, Carolina League)

A couple of 2008 draft picks headline this newly re-named affiliate (in case you’re wondering about the team name, “the Dash” is a nickname for Winston-Salem). Third round pick Brent Morel sped through Rookie Ball and Low A last year – as a polished college hitter should do – and he’ll look to replicate this year. While scouts question whether the power numbers will hold up at higher levels, his contact skills and good defense suggest a major league future in some capacity. Seventh round pick Jordan Danks impressed at his cameo at Kanny and, after Gartrell’s shoulder injury, came out of the Instructional League to hold his own in a cameo against more advanced competition in the Arizona Fall League. His defense, speed, and good on base skills also suggest a major league future. I’m very high on Danks (as I was on the other one - let's sign the sister, too) and I’m anxious to see how he deals with advanced pro pitching over a full season. Watch the K rate closely.

The pitching is pretty meh. While there are a few interesting guys – Michael Dubee, Hector Santiago, and Jacob Rasner – there’s not much that really projects to the major league level at this point.

A Prospect to Watch: Rasner is another player in whom I am disappointed in where the White Sox have placed him. He pitched well enough last season for Winston-Salem to be pushed to Birmingham. He’s got a low 90s fastball and induces enough groundballs; if he cuts his walks a bit, the Sox could have something. I hope he’s successful early in his repeat and gets pushed to AA quickly.

Vacation? Any legitimate CF prospect in this organization is worth a visit.

Kannapolis Intimidators (Low A, South Atlantic League)

More of the 2008 draftees are here. While some think Daniel Hudson and Dexter Carter (pictured above) should have been pushed to the Dash, I’m more sanguine about their placement. The Old Dominion teammates dominated the Pioneer League. Hudson has more polish but Carter has the better stuff. The knock on Carter was control but the White Sox made tweak to his delivery by having him throw across his body less and stride more toward the plate. The result was more strikes with a low 90s fastball and a plus curve that’s helped him get more than a K per inning. I expect the two to move quickly to High A.

The hitters are led by shortstops Tyler Kuhn and Eduardo Escobar, and 3B Jon Gilmore who came over in the Vazquez trade. Kuhn tore up the Pioneer League after being drafted out of West Virginia but don’t expect the slugging to translate to higher levels; his defense is also probably more suited to 2B and Escobar will likely handle most of the SS duties. Escobar was signed out of Venezuela in 2006 and the 20 year old made his US debut last year at Kanny. He has plus speed and is a great defender but a poor hitter – little strike zone judgment and no power. He’ll need to improve the former. Gilmore is also 20. He was a supplement first round pick out of Iowa high school. He’s a good contact hitter and scouts think the power will come. Like Escobar, he also needs to improve his strike zone judgment.

A Prospect to Watch: Drew O’Neil was a fourth round selection in 2008 out of Penn State. The righty is a sidearmer and has an unusually quick sinking fastball for someone with his kind of delivery. The reliever had a ridiculously high ERA at Great Falls but his peripherals told a different story. His sinker, coupled with his sinking fastball, induced a 4.00 GO/AO (groundout/flyout ratio) and 40 strikeouts in 31 innings. His command is inconsistent and will need to improve as he moves to higher levels.

Vacation? See them now before they become famous.

This Week in White Sox Minor League Baseball

larry — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 15:19:34 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Jeff Marquez will have to prove he can strike out more than 3 batters per 9 innings pitched at AAA Charlotte.

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Each week, I will summarize the posts in the Minor League Update fanpost for those who don't venture into it, mix in some new stuff, and generally discuss the previous week in White Sox minor leagues. This week:

Gordon Beckham, Dayan Viciedo, Tyler Flowers, Brandon Allen and Aaron Poreda are all on their way to Birmingham; Jordan Danks is headed to Winston-Salem.
Jack Egbert is being converted to a reliever at Charlotte. Joining him there will be Donny Lucy and Cole Armstrong, where the two will split the catching duties.
A scout on Beckham: “If he was 24 and was a guy with a couple of years in the minors, he just flat-out would have made this team.”
Allen apparently is a pretty good defensive first baseman.
Santo Luis continues to create a buzz amongst White Sox insiders. The strikeout machine last year at Kannapolis pitched impressively last night against the Diamondbacks. Now 25, he was quite, quite old for his level so this pick-up from Houston in the 2007 Minor League Phase of the Rule 5 Draft will need to show his 2008 improvements are real. The White Sox should have him skip A+ and move him straight to Birmingham.

Once the rosters for the affiliates are set, I will be doing a preview of the four full-season clubs.

Finally, please welcome Shoeless in SC as one of my Carolinas Correspondents. He will be providing occasional coverage of White Sox minor league affiliates in the Carolinas, most notably the Charlotte Knights. I have literally dozens of these exciting and unpaid positions available. Do you live in Montana? The Dirty South? Appalachia? The Camel City? Dominicana? Then you too can be cool by writing on a blog and using numbers.

Statistical Prospect Evaluation Primer: Part 3: Pitchers

The Cheat — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 00:45:38 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Kevin Slowey is a product of a Twins system which focuses on throwing strikes.

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Part 3 in a series. You can read Part 1 here, and Part 2 here.

Pitchers

In the last part, I mentioned that I don't spend too much time looking at a hitter's triple slash line, but with pitchers I take an even more extreme approach; I almost completely ignore ERA. To understand why, you have to fast forward to what we know about pitching at the major league level.

I like to say that you need to do two of three things well to succeed as a major league pitcher; throw strikes (limit walks), miss bats (rack up the strikeouts), and keep the ball in the park (limit homeruns). Ideally, you'd like to do all three, but to have success at the major league level you only need to be able to do two of them at the same time.

As I explained in the Building a Better Projection piece, for the purposes of projection we rely heavily on Fielding Independent Pitching or pitcher-controlled stats. And since what we're doing when evaluating pitching prospects is projecting their future major league performance that's where we'll concentrate here as well.

Control

You can't teach power to a hitter or velocity to a pitcher, but perhaps the most teachable tool in all of baseball is the ability to put the ball in the strike zone. The Twins have built a pipeline of fine, young pitching, which allows them to compete on a medium-sized payroll, thanks to their strike-throwing philosophy. While not as proficient as the Twins, the White Sox, with most of the credit given to Don Cooper, have taught strike throwing at the major league level. Bobby Jenks, Matt Thornton, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd have all lowered their walk-rates while with the major league club.

When I spoke about walk rates in the hitting portion, I advocated the use of BB% or BB/PA, and the truth is that's the most accurate measurement for pitchers as well. But I still use BB/9IP. I'm almost ashamed to admit it. I understand that because of the variable, elastic length of an inning that any measure which relies on innings as a unit of measure will be inherently different from pitcher-to-pitcher. But I don't care. I've used BB/9 forever, and it's served me well.

As a general rule, I don't like to see a prospect have a BB/9 over 3, but I don't pay too much mind to walk-rate in the low minors. I'm looking for a progression in a pitcher's ability to throw strikes, or at least no regression as they face more advanced hitters. Major league hitters are going to spoil more pitcher's pitches, extending at-bats and coaxing more walks than their minor league counterparts, so that minor league BB/9 of 3 can rise to 4.5 in the majors in a heartbeat.

Strikeouts

Since control can be taught, when you're evaluating a pitching prospect, it's all about strikeouts. Again I'll use the more accessible K/9, which I can figure it in my head, over the more accurate K%, but I'll make no more apologies.

The magic number I'm looking for is 1 strikeout per inning or a K/9 of 9 or above. When you get above 9 K/9, that's where you find your aces. Tim Lincecum and Cole Hamels had minor league K/9 marks over 12. It wasn't exactly difficult to project future success for those two. It can be much more difficult for prospects who have K/9 marks at or below 9.

K/BB ratio -- I said I'd make no more apologies for using K/9 and BB/9, and here's why. K/BB is once again the best indicator of future major league success, and it doesn't have that pesky elastic-innings problem either. The magic ratio I'm looking for here is 3:1 or above.

Want to know why the Twins have been able to build a pipeline of young pitching? Look no further than the minor league K/BB numbers of their young starters.

Scott Baker -- 4.25
Francisco Liriano -- 3.25
Nick Blackburn -- only 2.85, but 4.27 in AAA
Kevin Slowey -- 6.94
Glen Perkins -- 2.66 (Think there might be a reason he's had trouble staking claim to a rotation spot?)
Boof Bonser -- 2.3 (same as above. Can't get his BB/9 under 3)

A prospect who keeps his strikeouts high and his walks low will find his way to the big leagues. But a prospect with a K/9 below 9 can succeed at the major league level, witness most White Sox pitching; they'll just need to be proficient in other areas, such as...

Groundball rate

When we talk about groundball rates, what we're really talking about is homers. I don't like to pay attention to minor league homerun rates at all for reasons that should become clear in this section.

Using Gavin Floyd as an example, in his last two seasons in AAA (spanning 220 innings) Floyd allowed a total of 18 homers. That's a pretty good total, especially considering he spent a good deal of that time in Charlotte's tiny ballpark. So it should have been a surprise when Floyd gave up 30 in his breakout season, right?

Wrong. Studies have found that major league pitchers on average give up a HR on about 12% of their flyballs allowed. I believe that number is lower in the minors (since they hit fewer HR), but I don't really care to know the specifics. The point is, if you want to know if a pitcher is likely to be homer-prone at the major leagues, look at his groundball rates.

There are a number of different measures for groundballs, and this is where it can get confusing. MiLB.com uses GO/FO, which is a measure of groundouts vs. flyouts, but that doesn't account for all balls in play, only outs. ESPN appears to have lumped balls categorized as line drives in with flyballs, which is how that recent THT article came to some of the wrong conclusions about Danks. Here I like to use GB% (found at firstinning.com) since it's the most accurate measure of a pitcher's groundball tendencies.

GB% is not without its pratfalls, however. First, the groundball rate in the minor leagues is higher than that in the majors. (Again, I'm not sure of the exact measure. But there is small, but noticeable difference.) And because there are 3 batted ball types (GroundBalls, FlyBalls, and Line Drives), 50% isn't the dividing line between a groundball or flyball pitcher. I would put that mark at a GB rate of about 45%.

What I look for, what the White Sox are looking for is guys who get groundball rates in excess of 50%. Coming back to Floyd, he had a groundball rate of 43% in each of his last two seasons in AAA, which explains the 47 homers he's allowed in under 300 innings for the Sox. Meanwhile, Jeff Marquez' groundball rates have been around 55% in his non-rehab assignments, while Jack Egbert has been consistently between 50-55%. The groundballingest of pitchers in the major leagues (Brandon Webb, Derek Lowe, et al) have GB% over 60%.

Conclusion?

If the hitting portion of this exercise could be summed up in two questions, the pitching portion requires three. Does he throw enough strikes? Does he miss enough bats? And What happens when hitters make contact?

By now you're probably going back through this list and thinking to yourself; doesn't Egbert fit these guidlines more than Danks? The answer is yes. So what's the reason Danks is the best pitcher on a major league club while Egbert has yet to get a taste of big league action?

There are two simple answers; Age vs. League, Danks was very young at each level while Egbert is over our guideline ages, and velocity, Danks is a lefty who sits in the low 90's with his fastball whereas Egbert is a right-hander who only touches 90-91 with his stuff. There is one more key difference that I'll illustrate in my final post on this subject.

Up next: wrap-up, and a look at a couple of current Sox major leaguers.

White Sox Still Searching for Leadoff Man

The Cheat — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 03:20:22 -0000

In a development no one could have foreseen, the combined sucking sound coming from the White Sox center field candidates has Ozzie Guillen pulling names from a hat in his latest search to fill the Sox as-yet-to-be-claimed leadoff spot. The weakness has become so glaring it has lead at least one beat writer to invoke the name Scott Podsednik in a non-ironic manner.

Thankfully, Guillen seems to be taking a much saner approach. Yesterday, we heard the name Chris Getz floated as a possibility for the first time. Though Guillen seems reluctant to throw Getz to the wolves for the same reasons we had 3 weeks ago. Today, he's throwing out the idea of using Brian Anderson (God, no!) or Josh Fields in the leadoff spot against left-handed pitching, which should sound familiar. Although, we used those two unpalatable options to come to the conclusion that we would eventually see Alexei Ramirez get the nod, at least against lefties.

Ozzie's obviously thought about throwing Alexei at the top, but isn't ready to commit yet.

"Right now, it's still early to put Alexei there," Guillen said Thursday. "He's not in the picture right now to be there. Maybe against lefties during the season, maybe we will do that. I'd rather have Alexei as an RBI guy. He is pretty good with people on base, and I don't want to take the opportunity away from him."

Expect this issue to continue into at least mid-May, when Chris Getz should finally start to stake claim to a top-of-the-order spot.

* * * * *

Mark Gonzales notes that Bartolo Colon will be throwing against A-ballers in a start on Friday. After his shaky outing in his first trip to the mound in game action earlier this week, this seems like a bit of a step backwards.

I'm probably reading too much into the note. Admittedly, I wouldn't be reading anything into a similar move were it Buerhle, Floyd or Danks -- Guys throw in "B" games all the time -- but this just seems like an odd move for a guy with so many question marks surrounding his readiness.

As I was writing this, Gonzo explains, "Colon is pitching in a minor-league game so the Sox can have more control over his work."
Aaron Poreda got roughed up in an inning plus of work against mostly Giants minor leaguers. Said Ozzie:
"No good. He has been pitching well all spring. He just had a bad outing. I like to see that because you all of a sudden know you are not that good. It brings you back down to earth because it's easy when you're doing well. I like to see that because I want to see how they bounce back the next day."
Meanwhile, Jack Egbert allowed a run in his second consecutive outing, an inefficient 27 pitch inning (2 doubles, BB, K), but at least he was facing a host of major leaguers (and Juan Uribe).
Larry points out that a poster at Soxtalk talked to Sergio Miranda (A-ball shortstop), who says he's been traded to the Brewers. Take it for what you will.

Bartolo Colon Takes "Shaky" First Step Towards Return to White Sox Rotation

The Cheat — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 01:32:26 -0000

Bartolo Colon made a "shaky" spring debut Monday, though I wouldn't classify it a such. Colon, who is coming off minor elbow surgery, struggled with his control and appeared to be throwing more than pitching, especially with his 2-seamer.

I wish we had some radar readings so we really know what he was bringing, but as of yet I haven't seen any. If I was forced to guess, and right now I am, I would say that Colon's 2-seamer was sitting at about 86-87 with good movement (unfortunately too often to the middle of the plate) while his 4-seamer touched 90. Gonzo says Colon was throwing 89, so our guess seems about right. He also showed a slider and a changeup in his 1.2 innings of work.

Colon isn't exactly known for his work ethic, and he tends to build up to max-effort as spring wears on, sometimes he doesn't roll full-speed until the season is in full swing. At this point we have to remember, there are 3 weeks left of spring training, and 4 weeks before the 5th starters spot would be neccessary. So even though the results weren't exactly pleasing, any outing that Colon pitches pain-free at this point is a victory. We'll look for performance and sharpness at the end of camp, and even then it's hard to imagine Colon getting up for an exhibition game.

Does Egbert Have a Shot?

Jack Egbert is making his case for breaking camp with the Sox. While Jeff Marquez has parlayed a mediocre AAA campaign and 5 spring shutout innings against the Cubs into lock status -- He also served up 3 bombs to the Mariners yesterday -- Egbert has been impressive everytime he has taken the mound this spring.

Entering Monday's game, Egbert had yet to allow an earned run in 9 Cactus League innings. He extended that streak to 10 with a 1-2-3 inning in relief of Mark Buehrle, striking out Alex Gordon on an elevated 4-seamer, but ran into a bit of trouble in his second inning of work. Perhaps the best compliment that can be payed to Egbert was that he still looked like a major league pitcher in yielding his first earned runs of the spring. His fastball appeared to have a bit more zip on it, especially the 4-seamer, and the runs he did allow appeared to be a product of poor pitch selection.

Egbert was never really in consideration for the White Sox rotation openings, but he still might have a shot to claim the last spot in the pen. The Sox are going to carry 12 pitchers, which means 7 members of the pen, 4 of which are locks (Jenks, Thornton, Dotel, Linebrink), while two more (Richard and Carrasco) seem virtually assured. That leaves one spot open to be filled by Marquez/Egbert/Wasserman (depending on Colon and Contreras' health, obviously).

Gordon Beckham, Future Major League Star

When the Sox first drafted Beckham, I was content, not ecstatic. I was a bit concerned about his swing. It had a bit of a hitch, a Fields/Anderson loop during the load phase. But I noted his improvement year-over-year, a trait I love in prospects, as a reason to give the Sox (and Beckham) the benefit of doubt. It appears like that was a wise decision.

Three weeks into spring, Beckham is the star of big league camp. He's spraying doubles all over the field, playing multiple positions with ease, and generally looking like he belongs. Most importantly, his swing has been cleaned up. It's more compact, Micheal Young-like. I haven't seen enough to make any judgements about his defense, but overall he looks like a future major league star.

And that's the take-away we should have from the first half of the spring, that it appears Gordon Beckham will be a very good player in a White Sox uniform. It doesn't have to be this year. It shouldn't be this year. But sometime in the near future the Sox will have a real, live, homegrown up-the-middle All-Star-caliber player.

That's good enough for me. I can wait.