SB Nation - Carlos Rosa

Pitching Mechanics: Carlos Rosa

Kyle Boddy — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 16:00:45 -0000

What is going on here?

"Who the hell is Carlos Rosa?"

Good question. When scouring old posts from our archives, I randomly stumbled along this post. In it, NYRoyal said:

Since you poached devil_fingers from Royals Review, you really owe us a Carlos Rosa mechanics breakdown. It’s a moral imperative.

Interestingly enough (or not), I recalled that name from the article On That Stuff that I linked to a few days ago (which you read, of course) in the following paragraph:

Come to think of it, setting a minimum of 1,000 pitches for this analysis might have been a mistake. Given the precision and granularity of the data, this technique could be used to assess a pitcher's stuff given only a handful of pitchers. For example, I had never heard of Carlos Rosa before conducting this analysis, but now, from a sample of just 50 pitches, I can’t stop wondering why he’s not in the Majors. Great stuff. Decent control. The only evident knocks against him are his 2-8 Win-Loss record in AAA and 4.56 ERA. Maybe Dayton Moore knows something I don’t, or perhaps Rosa brought it just for his brief appearance in the Majors, or it’s possible GMDM is undervaluing a young talent who can get Major League hitters out. Actually, all three of these scenarios have probably taken place.

Given that the writer mentioned GMDM, it was pretty obvious that he at least knew of Royals Review, and thus, I had to finally write this piece despite the fact that NYRoyal requested it in December 2008. Since the Indians and the Royals are both pathetic this year, and the fact that I really do like the writers over at RR, I feel that this is the perfect time to deliver on the "moral imperative" that NYRoyal thrust upon me.

As such, I changed my MLB.tv login to something without a "+" in it (their older systems are apparently too stupid to understand Gmail sorting symbols) and pulled up Retrosheet to find when Carlos Rosa pitched last. It turns out that it was in June 2008, which is quite a bit farther back than I had anticipated. Fortunately, MLB.tv ended up working out alright, and here's what I found...

Tempo: Rosa is at 18-19 frames from maximal leg lift to footplant. Very Good.

Arm Action: Rosa gets his arm up early using a pretty solid arm swing that goes down, back, and up. He doesn't excessively reverse rotate his shoulders towards home plate. I'm liking this guy more and more... Very Good.

Ball Release: Rosa tilts his trunk to get a downwards plane release on his pitches and does a good job of pointing the gloveside shoulder into the target. I can't tell if he pronates the releases of his pitches, but it looks like he throws a slider, so I doubt it. Still, not bad! Above Average.

Followthrough: I don't particularly like his followthrough phase, as he lets the glove arm hang down and it causes incomplete shoulder rotation through release, but it's definitely not terrible. I'd grade it as Below Average.

So I figured Carlos Rosa must not be having a great year in Omaha or something, but it actually turns out that he's doing rather well! Sure, his ERA leaves something to be desired, but a 10.1 k/9 isn't exactly something you find on trees.

Why is this guy not in the majors for a team that is going nowhere?

Royals Minor League Roundtable: An Improving, But Far From Finished Player Development System

Will McDonald — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:00:27 -0000

Now, more than ever, the ability of the Royals player development system to produce both stars and useful Major Leaguers, stands out as the question dictating the viability of the Moore regime. Last week, I contacted two Royals bloggers who follow the minors closely, as well our own RR contributor and "minor league guy" Darren/nwroyal.

Keith is the man behind The Royal Tower, while Kenneth writes The Pipeline, two well-run and regularly updated sites that make the lives of all of us easier. Meanwhile, Darren can be credited with not only raising the bar on prospect coverage here at RR, he's spared you all from Will overload. You can read Darren's work on Royals Review here.

Unfortunately, I bothered these guys BEFORE the Betancourt trade, although in some ways that may be a good thing. Dan Cortes comes up a few times, so you can consider this a time capsule of what we thought before the trade that shook the faith of millions took place.

RR: Do you have a particular team or element of the system (pitchers, position players, high school guys, etc.) that you really like to follow?

Keith@ The Royal Tower: I enjoy following the whole system, but I think I like to follow the pitchers just a bit more. I love nothing more than to watch a pitcher's duel. I'd like to think I know a little bit more about pitching than hitting, so naturally it's more interesting for me to predict, project, and follow.

Kenneth@ The Pipeline: Every level has its attractions for me. At AAA, you hopefully have the guys who are close to making it, even though with the Royals the last few years it's mostly been retreads with a couple C-level prospects at Omaha. AA seems to be where the Royals like to put their prospects to the test -- if you remember, a few years back, Baird seemed to like to ignore AAA and move guys straight from Wichita to KC. It's not quite like that nowadays under Dayton Moore, but NW Arkansas is now usually the team to watch each year in the minors part of the organization. The Carolina League is a competitive league, so you get the feeling the prospects that make it at Wilmington are worth their salt. Unfortunately, that hasn't always been the case for KC -- take Rowdy Hardy, for example, who dominated the Carolina League a couple years back but couldn't hack it at AA. Dan Cortes also hasn't exactly excelled in AA. Burlington is also a good test, more for hitters than pitchers as it's a good pitchers' league. I had hoped Moustakas would do better there this year -- his lacking OBP has been a disappointment. The rookie leagues are a crapshoot -- you've got Idaho Falls in the hitter-friendly Pioneer League, which I think veils a little bit what a guy is bringing with the bat, kinda like when the High-A team was in High Desert. You've got Burlington in the Appalachian League, which may be the most competitive rookie league, and then you've got the AZL Royals in another very hitter-friendly environment.

I guess that's a long way of saying, no, there's no particular team I like to follow. I'd say at the moment, I'm wanting desperately to see some good position prospects emerge. You've got Hosmer doing OK, not great at Burlington, and you've got Moustakas scuffling along in Wilmington, and then it's level. Chris Lubanski had me going early in the year until his mysterious hamstring injury that he's missed a great deal of time for. I'd rather see the Royals take a couple good college position players early in the draft, just one time, and work the pitchers around that rather than the other way around. I can understand, I guess, going after Aaron Crow, but with Grant Green, a bonafide top college SS on the board? Wow. I guess I see the organization's needs differently than the front office.

Darren @ Royals Review: I've gravitated towards following the draft. The interest level and amount of information about it has exploded in the past couple of years. The Royals drafts use to be a one player affair--our top pick and then a bunch of junk after that but the Royals have had some deep drafts the past few years. Teams are figuring out that the current slotting system is an uneven playing field and it will reward those who are willing to buck the system. The Royals are one of those teams and I think its a really smart move. And what other area of the Royals organization can you say "they are doing something really smart"?

RR: Who would you label as the top prospect in the system?

Darren@ Royals Review: I go with Eric Hosmer. He hasn't taken off yet but he gets on base and supposedly has huge power potential. John Sickels reported just the other day that he talked to a scout who was still high on Hosmer but thought he had developed some mechanical issues that were hurting him. I think (or perhaps hope) that he will break out in the 2nd half like Moustakas last year. I think when he get up and running he will be a classic slugger like we haven't seen on a Royals team in a long time: big power, lots of walks and doesn't hurt you in the field.

Kenneth@ The Pipeline: Right now I'd have to say Wilmington lefty Danny Duffy, his recent struggles aside. The easy answer is Moustakas or Hosmer, but I really think Duffy can be something special. Moustakas had a great second half at Burlington last year but it looks at this point, with a .300 OBP and 18 BB/51 K in 77 G/297 ABs at Wilmington, that he's not exactly tearing up Advanced-A ball, but, then again, it is the Carolina League, so all is not lost. Hosmer has a similar BA, better OBP and worse SLG at a level one lower and has shown much more patience at the plate. It's easier to see the power coming along with time with Hosmer, and it has to be taken into account how the Midwest League favors pitchers. The only other top prospect candidate at this point is Dan Cortes, and his struggles with command have seemed to come back -- 35 BB/32 K over his last 10 starts. In my mind, I can see Duffy being a top-two starter, maybe a third starter eventually in KC. I don't see Cortes being any more than a back-of-the-rotation guy at this point, if that. On another note, I like what we've seen out of Mike Montgomery this year in Burlington. Another win tonight (July 9) and 1 or less earned runs in 9 of his last 10 starts. He's gonna be rocketing up a lot of Royals prospect charts.

Keith@ The Royal Tower: For me, it's Aaron Crow. Partially due to the lame season's of Hosmer and Moustakas, but it's more a credit to Crow's talents. He throws three above average pitches with command. The layoff is going to affect him initially, but he's going to get to KC quickly once he's back in the groove.

RR: Do you have a favorite "sleeper" prospect?

Keith@ The Royal Tower: I think saying Disco Hayes would be kind of lame at this point...who doesn't love him? I'll throw out two -- Keaton Hayenga and John Lamb. Hayenga's got fantastic stuff and it'll be interesting to see how his command comes along as he continues to get further away from labrum surgery. Lamb is more of a pitchability guy now, but he's tall and lanky and could add some ticks to the fastball. He already "knows how to pitch," and if his stuff can come along...he could really be a good one.

Darren@ Royals Review: David Lough has been someone I've liked--he's in the middle of what looks to be a breakout season. He's kind of a David DeJesus guy--not huge power and kind of a tweener in the OF--but his bat will play and he will give good production at a low cost. I'll throw out one more guy who I'm big on is Yowil Espinal. He was a big (for us, at least) international signing for us 2 years ago. He's a SS who is having a great year for the Burlington Royals. He has big time tools on offense and defense. Every part of his games has taken a big step forward and I don't think he'll be a sleeper for very long.

Kenneth@ The Pipeline: I suppose Montgomery isn't really a sleeper at this point. He was a supplemental 1st rounder, after all. How about NWA OF David Lough or Burlington (A) OF Nick Van Stratten? Lough had a great start at Wilmington and has continued to hit at NW Arkansas in his first taste of AA. Plus he seems to have a decent arm and defense. Van Stratten doesn't hit for power but has speed and defense and has stayed on the field while keeping his BA over .300 at Burlington. Lough doesn't walk much, tho, and Van Stratten has shown some good discipline. I'd like to see what Van Stratten could do in the Carolina League.

RR: Who has been the most disappointing prospect this season?

Kenneth@The Pipeline: Probably Cortes, who has been touted as the top pitching prospect just in time for all his command problems to resurface. The recent arrest is just the cherry on top, even if it was somewhat innocuous. Mario Lisson would be a close second, but I don't know how seriously anyone took him as a prospect. He got a 40-man slot to keep him out of the rule 5 draft, then stunk in AA last year, stunk AGAIN in AA this year, then got a promotion to Omaha for some reason, where he has somehow stunk slightly less than he did in AA. Then you've got the Wilmington trio of Moustakas, Derrick Robinson and Adrian Ortiz, Moustakas being the biggest disappointment there. A .300 OBP, and leading the team in errors, meaning he's probably gonna need to be moved off 3B too? If that's not disappointing... Robinson's BA has declined, his steal rate is down, so he's now a 2-tool player -- speed and D. I had high hopes for Ortiz this year, too, and he hasn't hacked it in Wilmington, and doesn't have the excuse of a lack of playing time.

Keith@ The Royal Tower: There have been more than a few disappointments, but I'll say Derrick Robinson. I've been touting him for a while, but his bat just isn't progressing as it should. If anything he has gone backwards.

Darren@ Royals Review: Dan Gutierrez--simply because he hasn't thrown a pitch this year and I predicted before the season began he would be our top prospect when 2009 ended. He has battled injury, personal issues and had a spat with the Royals regarding his recovery from injury. Also, Moustakas and Hosmer apparently talked him into joining Scott Boras Corp.--but that also has a positive side because Boras wouldn't take him unless they thought he had potential.

RR: Typically, the Royals' system is presented as improving, but still immature. In particular, is there anyone in Omaha (other than Kila) who we should be excited about, or who at least could help the team soon?

Darren@ Royals Review: "Disco" Hayes is down there and he could help the team but I'm not sure how much the Royals believe in him. Mario Lisson is better than TPJ...(crickets chirping). Omaha is kind of a wasteland but we have got some talent starting to show up in Northwest Arkansas.

Kenneth@ The Pipeline: My answer would be, not that I see, or at least nobody that's a "prospect". If the Royals hang on to lefty Lenny DiNardo, he could help some maybe at the MLB level, but then again, why wouldn't he be there already if they thought he could help? Chris Hayes is a cult hero among Royals fans, but I'm unconvinced. He's gotten guys out at every level, but at some point his speed is gonna meet its match with the bats. I'd love to see him become the next Quiz, tho. With his blog, he could be the Quiz's match in several ways.

I like to think the Quiz could have written a good blog. I thought going into the year that Carlos Rosa could maybe chip in in KC, but he has really struggled out of the pen for Omaha. I'd rather they had kept him in the rotation, but he wasn't staying healthy there, so that's a tough situation. Position-wise, it's pretty bereft in Omaha. Tug Hulett has done nothing in his sparse chances, Irving Falu has had a solid year in AAA but doesn't dazzle, Lubanski and Shane Costa have been hurt, Ryan Shealy too, I also had hopes (I've been saying that a lot) that Travis Metcalf would be a good pickup from the Rangers, but that hasn't panned out, either. Scott Thorman, a Dayton-ex-Brave pickup, has been great for Omaha but I have a feeling he'd probably struggle in KC.

Keith@ The Royal Tower: A few relievers come to mind, namely Disco and Carlos Rosa. I know Rosa's had a down season, but the stuff is still plenty there. He's hit 96 and 97 multiple times on the stadium gun at the games i've been to. Infielder Irving Falu would be a better option than the two no-hit SS's were currently employing. He can play all over the infield and has even played some right field. He might be a switch hitting Bloomquist type, which has a bit of value. Injuries really hurt Chris Lubanski's shot to potentially help the big league team earlier this year as he was having a nice little opening to the year. Overall there are some guys that could play roles on the Major league roster, but no one other than Ka'aihue that will likely make a major impact.

RR: How would you describe the state of the system as a whole right now? How confident are you in Dayton Moore's ability to build a strong enough minor league/player development system for the Royals to win the AL Central and beyond?

Keith@ The Royal Tower: System is doing well, but it could be a whole heck of a lot better. Unfortunately our three top prospects coming into the year have stumbled a bit in Moustakas, Hosmer, and Cortes. On the other side of the coin, other young players have emerged as very real prospects such as Bianchi, Lough, Parraz, and Espinal. I'm going to cop out a little here, but I think we still need a couple more years to see how Dayton & Co. (the "Co." are the people who make the picks) will really do with the minor leagues. What I do know is him and his staff are not afraid to take who they truly believe is the top talents in the draft, not just in the first round, but in subsequent rounds as well (highlighted by this year's draft). Not only that, but they have heavily increased efforts to find talent in the international field (also highlighted this year with Korean C Shin Jin-Ho and Nicaraguan 3B Cheslor Cuthbert). More talent is coming into the system now than at any point in the past two decades, and while there will be busts/disappointments, this is the way to build long time because some players will work out, and not just work out, but become star players.

Kenneth@ The Pipeline: The state of the system is better than the Baird years, which isn't saying much, but I wouldn't exactly put the Royals in the upper echelon of major league systems. I'd give it a solid C, when the Royals need it to be at least a B to compete. I think Moore has concentrated too much in recent times of building up the pitching side of the ledger and leaving the position side as an afterthought. As others (namely Rany Jazayerli, but others) have pointed out, he seems to have a good idea of potential future value but horrible idea of present value of certain players. Signings like Guillen and Farnsworth trouble me, as does the Jacobs trade when the Royals had Kila Ka'aihue waiting for a chance to play, at a much cheaper cost. Obviously the Royals aren't gonna be able to buy their way to the top, so they have to build it. I wrote recently I think Moore is a good assistant GM, but he hasn't convinced me that he's a good GM yet. The whole ex-Braves thing aggravates me, too. Are we really gonna build our way to the top using players the Braves get rid of? He basically uses his 25-30 draft signings each year, plus picks up whoever the Braves don't want anymore in the offseason and during the season. My confidence in Moore is low, but I'm waiting to be convinced.

Darren@ Royals Review: The state of the Royals system continues to improve. The Royals have several good prospects on each team from Northwest Arkansas, Wilmington, Burlington-IA, Idaho Falls, Burlington-NC. The Royals last two drafts look very good so far and we are seeing fruit from their increased budget on the International front. The Royals have a lot of pitching depth and their hitting depth is improving.

I think Dayton Moore can build a minor league system that is as strong as any in the AL Central--but it won't matter if we keep signing the Guillens and Farnsworths of the world. A very good farm system--by itself--probably won't translate into a division title. I don't see Moustakas and Hosmer being ready in time to help while Greinke is still here (I hope I'm wrong). David Glass won't want to keep spending record amount on the draft if we don't start seeing wins as the big league level. Also, the Royals need to have the guts to flip some guys for prospects this year. So I would say I'm torn--I really like the direction of the minors but loathe the direction of the big league club--I have a hard time reconciling those two things. I guess I keep hoping that Moore will have an epiphany about the big league club.

I hope I didn't jumble up anyone's answers! Thanks again to Keith, Kenneth, and Darren. Be sure to visit The Royal Tower and The Pipeline the next time you surf.

Minor League Recap: 2008 Omaha Royals

marbotty — Sat, 02 May 2009 12:36:02 -0000

It must be fun to be a baseball fan in a town that houses a AAA affiliate. Not only do you get to enjoy the highest quality baseball outside of the majors (or Japan), you also get to watch a wide array of players take the field.

For example, had you picked a random Omaha Royals game to watch last season, you would have had the pleasure of seeing a hodgepodge of different players: rising stars like Mike Aviles, Billy Butler, and Kila Kaaihuie, retreads like Gookie Dawkins and Angel Berroa, AAAA tweener-types like Shane Costa and Damon Hollins, and a bunch of guys like Ryan Shealy and Brayan Pena, who don't really belong in the minors but who also don't have a roster spot open for them on the parent club.

On top of that, you get awesome promotions that are usually too risque or too bizarre to be considered acceptable at the major league level. Take this year's bobblehead promotion.

If you go watch a game on bobblehead night in Kauffman, you'd expect to receive either a current player or a former allstar like George Brett or Amos Otis. In Omaha? Warren Mother Flipping Buffett. Why? Because the guy could rake, that's why.

Career OPS: .931

Or how about this other promotion. Ever heard of Todd Balduf? I hadn't, but if you look at the Omaha Royals stat sheet from last year, you'll see he logged exactly one game and only one at bat. What was the point? I'm guessing it was "Moonlight Graham" night at Omaha Stadium, and one lucky fan got picked from the stands to get a minor league at bat. At least, that's what should have happened, and if this promotion ever gets greenlighted, I want credit for it.

2008 TEAM RECAP

The O Royals went a disappointing 63-81, which was the 3rd lowest win total among the 16 teams in the Pacific League. On the plus side, nobody gives a squirt.

TOP 5 HITTING PERFORMANCES

1. Kila Kaihuee, 1B
114 At Bats, 11 HRs, .316/.439/.640, 24BB, 26K

Kila was sort of the minor league equivalent of Manny Ramirez in that he ended up being the best hitter on two different teams. Of course, in Kila's case, the two teams were NW Arkansas and Omaha, so he didn't get quite as much press on the subject as Manny.

Even though he had a higher walk rate than anyone on the team and averaged one homerun per 10 at bats, (which was actually better than Manny), Kila didn't get the call to the majors until the very tail end of the 2008 season. You would have thought Dayton would have been more inclined to call him up sooner considering:

1. An ineffective Ross Gload was manning 1B, and
2. Aviles had a monster season once he was called up to replace an equally ineffective Tony Pena, Jr.

But this was Ross Mother Flipping Gload we were talking about, so I can understand Moore's reluctance. Let's also not lose sight of the fact that there's nothing about Kíla's name that would either imply or rhyme with an explosion, so there's no way he could have been as big of a fan favorite as Ross. (Wait, what about a "Kila-ton" bomb? Oh, well.)

2. Mike Aviles, 2B/SS
214 At Bats, 10 HRs, .336/.370/.631, 11BB, 26K

If you were unfamiliar with the Royals and were just looking at this year's stats, you might wonder what the big deal is about Mike Aviles. In fact, you might think he sucks.

But last year was a different story, and Aviles was arguably our best player last season. Of course, his story began in Omaha, where, like Kila, he manhandled Pacific League pitching. While Aviles only hit homeruns at half the rate that Kila did, his slugging percentage was nearly identical, thanks in big part to a higher batting average and a much higher doubles rate.

Where he lagged behind Kila the most was in his ability to draw walks, only garnering one every five games or so. Critics/cynics who believed Mike's success was unsustainable pointed first at this low walk rate as evidence of a future decline. So far, those concerns have had merit, as Aviles has been terrible.

But we'll always love Aviles for 2008. And eventually, that love will turn to annoyance, then disdain, and then sheer, gutwrenching hatred... much like it did with Berroa in the years following his rookie of the year season. Speaking of which...

3. Angel Berroa, SS
189 At Bats, 10 HRs, .291/.323/.519, 8BB, 25K

Didn't see that coming did you?

Okay, I'm cheating a bit here, as either Butler or Shealy should be in this spot. But that would have ruined my cool Aviles-Berroa segue, and I just couldn't have that.

The other thing is that there's a sentimentality factor in play here -- nobody expected Berroa to ever perform well again, and that sort of underdog-ness made me root for him more than I normally would for another player. (Am I glad he's with another team? Yes. I'm not crazy.)

So while his raw stats don't compare to Butler and Shealy's, the fact that he performed well despite the fact that nobody believed in him, or even really liked him, and the fact that it helped with my literary transition, Berroa gets the nod at #3. Also, it gives me an excuse to post this photo:

Either the Dodgers appreciate Angel as much as we do, or this was the most poorly-conceived Budweiser ad ever. (via www.pe.com)

4. Billy Butler, 1B
101 At Bats, 5 HRs, .337/.417/.564, 14BB, 7K

Hey! It's Billy Butler! No big surprise here, and nothing really exciting to write about that nobody hasn't written before. (How's that for a triple negative?)

5. Ryan Shealy, 1B
400 At Bats, 22 HRs, .283/.376/.503, 55BB, 93K

It's sort of mind boggling that Shealy still doesn't have a spot on the 25 man roster, considering the success he had for half a season in the pros and two years in the minors, and considering what was at the time a rather large bounty required to bring him over. It's also mind boggling because other guys that Dayton brought in via trade all got more of an extended shot than Ryan (Pena, Gathright, Gload), despite all having a worse pedigree and requiring less in the trade. Sure, he sucked in 2007, but so did those guys, and they all got to keep playing.

I have an irrational man crush on Mike Jacobs, but I would have been perfectly happy to let Shealy man the 1B/DH position in 2009. Having Nunez in the fold might have also spared us the pain of acquiring Kyle Farnsworth, and maybe that extra $4 million spent on Jacobs could have spent on something to spare us the pain of Sidney Ponson. But there's no point dwelling on this now. The only real question is which of Shealy or Kaiihue gets traded first.

Other Notables: Todd Balduf

TOP 5 PITCHING PERFORMANCES

1. Joel Peralta
18.2 IP, 0 GS, 0.00 ERA, 19K, 6BB

Sure, he was tater-ific while pitching in KC last season, but he was downright nasty as a reliever in Omaha. A 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, over a strikeout an inning, and not a single runner allowed in 18 innings qualifies as a success at any level. His struggles in KC last year was a bit perplexing, as he hadn't ever shown before such a high propensity for giving up dingers, either at the minor or major league level. Let's hope he can get his career back on track, as he was a solid pitcher prior to last season's meltdown.

2. Jorge De La Rosa
22 IP, 4 GS, 1.64 ERA, 23K, 7BB

Here's another name you probably didn't expect to see on this list, but really, it's pretty typical of his career. In what must be maddening for GMs, Jorge shows flashes of brilliance, only to eventually turn into a pumpkin once given enough exposure to ML hitting.

Colorado's giving him a starting role again this season, and I'm sure he'll last another month in the pros before eventually getting demoted, traded, or waived, only to be picked up by another team in search of a reclamation project. But next time it will work!

3. Carlos Rosa
50.2 IP, 11GS, 4.09 ERA, 44K, 12BB

I still don't understand why Rosa isn't considered the better prospect of him and Dan Cortes. Of course, I'm not looking at this from a scouting standpoint, and yes, Cortes has the advantage (or disadvantage) of being younger. But from a purely statistical perspective, Rosa has easily bested Cortes in pure performance each year they've been in the system.

Rosa had one of the best K:BB ratios on the squad, and while his ERA wasn't that impressive, he did do a good job of limiting baserunners and avoiding homeruns. He's back in Omaha again this year, and thus far he's dominating, with a 3.27 ERA, 11 K's against 3 BBs in only 11 innings pitched. Cortes, meanwhile, is sporting a 6.23 ERA, and 1.73 WHIP, although his peripherals suggest he's pitched much better than those numbers suggest.

4. and 5. Kyle Davies/Devon Lowery
57.2 IP, 11 GS, 2.03 ERA, 38K, 21BB (Davies)
59.1 IP, 0 GS, 2.12 ERA, 43K, 30BB (Lowery)

Davies gets a slight nod over Lowery -- their numbers were very similar -- due to the fact that he was starting and due to a better walk rate. But their other numbers, hits, homeruns, innings pitched, strikeouts, and runs allowed were almost identical. If Lowery had put up these numbers as a starter maybe we would have found our replacement for Ponson in the rotation. (It should be noted here that Jeff Fulchino actually had superior K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 than both Lowery and Davies, but he also gave up twice as many runs).

Other Notables: Luke Hochevar, Greg Atencio, Jeff Fulchino

Division-By-Division 2009 Projected Starting Pitching Rankings By WAR: AL Central

Matt Klaassen — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 14:00:10 -0000

This is the fourth in a series of six posts going through the MLB division-by-division to see which team has the best projected 2009 starting pitching by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to an average of the "Big Three" projection systems.. This post covers the rotations of a division that appears to be as "up for grabs " as any other in the majors: the AL Central. I actually had to do a bit of revising of my original big spreadsheet because the BP depth charts have undergone some revision since I originally started, which did effect some things. Surprises await...

Brandon "Ducky" Duckworth wants you to read on after the jump.

How Did I Come Up With These Numbers?

Some details on the methods used (if you don't care, you can jump straight to the "Team-By-Team")

FIP is used as the primary pitching stat.
The projected 2009 for each pitcher is generated by averagfing the projections of the three best publicly available projection systems: CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA. The projected FIP for CHONE and ZiPS are from the player pages at FanGraphs. I generated the PECOTA FIP myself from the big spreadsheet.
Playing time/depth chart projections are based on Baseball Prospectus's depth charts (not the PECOTA weighted mean) in order to account for spot starters as well. These change every week; the playing times used are those that were up when I was writing the present post.
No team only starts 5 players all year long. However, I've also included a "top 5" figure for each team, based on the top 5 projected starter WARs for each team (not the top five projected IPs).
Value is based on a Win% generated using PythagenPat in relation to a average FIP-ERA of 4.40 and an RA of 4.76.
Run values are generated by are scaling FIP to RA rather than ERA for better accuracy and to properly value pitchers with respect to hitters.
An appropriate replacement level win percentage for starting pitchers is used, adjusted for relative league difficulty: .390 is replacement level for starters in the NL, and .370 for the AL.
Adjustments for ballparks use the five-year regressed park factors used at FanGraphs.
Adjustments are made for each pitcher's influence on his run environment through a dynamic run-to-win conversion for each individual pitcher.
New feature starting with the AL Central post: aggregate team starter win %. Yay! Note: that this is not directly convertible to team WAR, as it is a simple weighted average based on individual win% and IP. There will be discrepancies between team win% and team WAR, which is based on individual win % because this rough calculation occurs before individual impcat on run environment is taken into account for run-to-win conversion. WAR is the focus here. This feature is just for fun and a rough little guide to quality in relation to average. WAR is still the main focus of this series.
Neither the rates nor playing time projections are "mine." I have simply the projections, averaged them, and combined them with BP's playing time predictions. You can find the complete projected lines for each pitcher at the home sites for the systems (and FanGraphs, for CHONE and ZiPS). In other words, don't blame me if you lose money betting with this stuff...

Team-By-Team

Cleveland Indians
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Cliff Lee	200	3.84	.559	37.9	3.8
Fausto Carmona	150	4.26	.511	21.1	2.1
Jeremy Sowers	125	4.75	.458	11.1	1.1
Anthony Reyes	110	4.83	.451	8.9	0.9
Aaron Laffey	100	4.43	.492	12.2	1.2
Carl Pavano	65	4.95	.439	4.5	0.4
David Huff	60	4.43	.492	7.3	0.7
Jake Westbrook	80	4.26	.510	11.2	1.1
Scott Lewis	50	4.41	.494	6.2	0.6
Total			.498		11.9
Top 5					9.3

Comment: Both CHONE and Baseball Prospectus currently have the Indians as the likely winners of the 2009 AL Central. This isn't that surprising, although (like many forecasts) it depends on a number of assumptions about the how successful the returns of Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, etc. will be. In any case, it's pretty obvious here that if Cliff Lee completely reverts to his pre-2008 form or is out for an extended period of time, the divisional title aspirations for the Indians may be up in smoke, although, again, that's true for a lot of teams and their star players. Cleveland is attempting up for their lack of top-end quality with depth, as can be seen from the gap between the total projected WAR and the TOP 5. The .498 projected win percentage sees them as about average. As will be a theme throughout this post, there are a lot of variables here.... Insert Carl Pavano joke here.

Detroit Tigers
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Justin Verlander	195	4.10	.534	31.9	3.2
Jeremy Bonderman	150	4.15	.528	22.1	2.2
Armando Galaragga	165	4.85	.454	13.9	1.3
Edwin Jackson	160	4.78	.461	14.5	1.4
Zach Miner	80	4.29	.512	11.3	1.1
Nate Robertson	110	4.70	.469	10.9	1.1
Dontrelle Willis	70	5.18	.423	3.7	0.3
Rick Porcello	55	5.76	.374	0.2	0.0
Total			.481		10.7
Top 5					9.3

Comment: Blah blah blah joke about 1,000 run offense in 2008. The pitching (and defense) bombed last year. Adam Everett and Gerald Laird should help out on defense, but there are a lot of fingers crossed in Detroit, as those signings in addition to the Matt Joyce-for-Edwin Jackson trade portend a "win-now" season for an aging team; the pitchers can't blow it. Verlander is the only pitcher here who projects both as clearly above average in his rate stats and for a decent amount of innings. Bonderman looks above average when he's projected to pitch, but at this point, "disappointment" is probably the right word. Galaragga was a nice pickup, but he has to come back to earth eventually. Rick Porcello: replacement level picher. I miss Dontrelle Willis being good. Sorry for all of the negative comments -- in actuality, this group is better than some people think, and notice that their "Top 5" group is as good as Cleveland's.

Minnesota Twins
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Scott Baker	170	4.06	.529	27.0	2.7
Francisco Liriano	160	3.86	.553	29.3	3.0
Nick Blackburn	160	4.56	.473	16.5	1.6
Glen Perkins	150	5.24	.408	5.7	0.5
Kevin Slowey	170	3.96	.541	29.1	2.9
Philip Humber	110	5.49	.386	1.8	0.2
Kevin Mulvey	50	4.99	.431	3.1	0.3
Total			.486		11.2
Top 5					10.7

Comment: I suppose that I'm not the only one that thought these guys would project a little better. Again, this is a situation where playing time is very important. If Liriano and Baker can avoid injuries, this is probably the best rotation in the division. Slowey is also a stud-in-the-making from the Twins' Brad Radke factory.. Imagine if they could get Tampa Bay to trade Matt Garza for Delmon Young. Nah, any GM stupid enough to do that should be fired forthwith, right? In terms of sheer win%, Baker, Liriano, and Slowey look like the best 1-2-3 punch in the division. Seems like the "Twins way" should probably involve overpaying for some crappy vet to take innings away from one or more of the young guys in the grand tradition of the Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez signings. To be fair, it does like young Philip Humber (part of the Johan Santana trade "bonanza") will be contributing quite a bit of near-replacement level sweetness this season.

Chicago White Sox
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Mark Buerhle	200	4.38	.521	30.2	3.0
John Danks	175	4.21	.540	29.8	3.0
Gavin Floyd	180	5.08	.451	14.5	1.4
Clayton Richard	110	4.93	.464	10.4	1.0
Jose Contreras	130	4.54	.504	17.4	1.7
Bartolo Colon	80	4.79	.478	8.6	0.8
Jack Egbert	40	4.69	.489	4.7	0.5
Lance Broadway	40	5.89	.382	0.5	0.0
Aaron Poreda	40	5.08	.451	3.2	0.3
Total			.490		11.8
Top 5					9.3

Comment: If you ask me, Kenny Williams is one of the most entertaining GMs in baseball. No, I don't think he's great. I don't think he's terrible. I don't know what to think. Sometimes he makes moves that I think are stupid, and they work out well. Or he makes moves that make me think he's "getting it," and they bomb. It's fun to watch from a distance, although it must be brutally exhausting for White Sox fans. If you read my NL East post in this series, you'll see that Javier Vazquez is projected at about 2 wins better than anyone else on the White Sox currently. The ChiSox got young guys in return and are clearly trimming salary (Vazquez and Swisher wouldn't have been my choices, but see my comments about my judgments re: Williams' past moves above), so we'll have to wait and see how it works out in big picture, but, again, with Vazquez, this would easily be the best rotation in the division... Gavin Floyd, meet reality. Jose Contreras may be old, but White Sox fans would certainly rather see him out there than Bartolo Colon. John Danks turns 24 in April, and looks like a stud-in-the-making.

Kansas City Royals
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Gil Meche	195	4.03	.542	33.6	3.4
Zack Greinke	190	3.92	.555	35.2	3.6
Brian Bannister	160	4.82	.457	13.9	1.3
Kyle Davies	140	4.93	.446	10.6	1.0
Luke Hochevar	140	4.81	.457	12.2	1.2
Horacio Ramirez	60	4.39	.501	7.9	0.8
Brandon Duckworth	30	4.84	.454	2.5	0.2
Sidney Ponson	60	5.00	.440	4.2	0.4
Total			.493		11.9
Top 5					10.5

Comment: I've had some harsh words for Royals GM Dayton Moore this offseason, and I'm not taking them back now. But I have to hand it to the man: he's put together a respectable rotation. True, like many of the Royals' best players, young ace Zack Greinke is a holdover from the previous administration (as are Alex Gordon, David DeJesus, Mike Aviles, and Billy Butler) , but Moore did manage to extend him. And although the Gil Meche contract now looks like a giant outlier among Moore's ...questionable... record with free agents, it's been a dandy. Greinke and Meche project as the best 1-2 punch in the division by both WAR and individual win%. Going just by WAR, they project as the 2nd and 3rd best pitchers in the division (behind Cliff Lee). Neither Bannister nor Davies looks like a world beater, but they can at least hold down the back of the rotation decently, and were acquired by trading older and expensive (Octavio Dotel for Davies) or young and overrated "live arms" (Ambriox Burgos for Bannister) for cheap young production. Um, no, I personally don't think Ho-Ram is a .501 starting pitcher. The projection systems probably don't differentiate between his time as a starter and as a reliever. But hey, I'm just following the numbers here. There's no homerism. There are "issues" like that all over this series, and if I start making half-baked subjective adjustments of my own in one place, I'll have to do it everywhere, and we end up with a bunch of junk. Before Carlos Rosa got sent back to Omaha to be a reliever, the Royals actually projected slightly better, but Sir Sidney isn't going to kill them too badly with only 60 innings (gulp), although the acquisition may trigger a crisis of epic proportions... P. S. Ducky rules.

Let's see the final results:

AL Central Projected SP WAR
Rank	Team	Total SP WAR	Top 5 WAR	Win%
1	Royals	11.9	10.5	.493
1	Indians	11.9	9.3	.498
3	White Sox	11.8	9.4	.490
4	Twins	11.2	10.7	.486
5	Tigers	10.7	9.3	.481
Total		57.5	49.2

Final Thoughts: That is very close, with all five teams are within 1.2 WAR. KC and Cleveland are tied on top at 11.9, with Chicago right behind at 11.8. No group of starters (including spot starters) projects as average (.500 or greater win%), although all are pretty close. While the top teams are worse than any other top divisional teams (at least so far), the bottom team is better than any other bottom team... Until the recent depth chart changes on both teams, Cleveland was further down the list, and KC was the clear #1. I was excited about that, but I had to give in to what the projections now say... On one hand, I could give it to Cleveland on the basis of the superior win%, but on the other, KC has the better "Top 5." So I have them tied, with KC listed first (in your face, Kyle!). Besides, as I noted above, the calculations for aggregate win% are only a "rough guide," anyway. And that's the mess with this whole division -- things are so close. Given the nature of projections in general, the potential for devastating pitcher injury, young player unpredictability, etc. it's not that far fetched to see any of the teams having the best starting WAR at the end of the season. For fans of the Indians, the Twins (my "gut" tells me this is really the best rotation in the division, but you know what the gut's brains are made of...), and the Tigers, it's pretty clear that their rotations definitely have question marks, but are each good enough to potentially help win the division. For Royals fans, there's a good young core there, and hopefully the position players can catch up. For White Sox fans... hey, you know Kenny better than I do, you tell me what to expect, I have no clue. I guess that's why Kenny Williams is the GM, and I'm the blog-talkin' guy...

Next up: NL West (later this week, probably Wednesday or Thursday)