SB Nation - Mitch Maier

Twins Hammer and Homer Royals for the Sweep: Bring On the Tigers!

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:23:49 -0000

Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel doffs his helmet to the crowd after his second three-run home run of the game off Kansas City Royals' Luke Hochevar in the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009 in Minneapolis, while Denard Span makes fun of his beard. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 13, Royals 4

Do you hear that? Can you still hear it? It's the reverb from the cacophony of noise created by fans at the Dome. Why, you may ask?

Because we just forced game 163.

"BOOM!" said Jason Kubel.

"BOOM!" said Delmon Young.

"BOOM!" said Kubel, again.

"Ditto," said Delmon.

As the Detroit Tigers hung on to salvage one game from the Chicago White Sox this afternoon, the Twins were busy putting the hurt on the Kansas City Royals. It was 7-0 at the end of the third inning, with six of those runs crossing the plate stuck in Kubel's beard; a pair of three-run jacks lifted Jason to one of the best days of his career in a crucial game.

Young went deep twice of his own accord, solo shots that, "just enough" or not, certainly did the trick. His second blast put the Twins up 8-1 going into the sixth, and the game looked like it was on ice. But oh yeah, we were facing the Royals, and they have just as much fight as the Twins. Sadly for them they don't have the talent to match, but for one half of an inning, things were interesting.

Carl Pavano started on three days rest this afternoon, and he looked good. Working out of a second and third with one out situation in the second inning, he made a statement about exactly what kind of a pitcher he can be when he bears down. He worked John Buck out-in-out-in-in to induce a shallow fly-out to center that couldn't score a run, and then quickly sent down Alex Gordon as well. It was a microcosm of the game for the Royals: try as they might, it wasn't going to be good enough.

Pavano pitched around a Luis Hernandez leadoff double in the third before allowing a run in the fourth off back-to-back doubles by Alberto Callaspo and Mark Teahen. He looked strong again the fifth before falling off the table in the aforementioned sixth.

Mike Jacobs picked up a leadoff single before Callaspo tripled to bring the score to 8-2. Still Pavano battled back, striking out Teahen and inducing a Buck ground-out for out number two. Another run scored, but with the bases empty and the bullpen spare he attacked Alex Gordon.

"BOOM!", said Gordon. 8-4, hook for Pavano, enter Bobby Keppel.

Quick, ask me which pitcher I don't want to see in a game.

Keppel lasted six pitches, delivering five fastballs down the middle of the plate and a slider in the dirt. The Royals continued to jab with the left, trying to inch closer before coming in with a strong right. With runners on the corners and still just the two outs that Pavano managed, Ron Gardenhire went to Ron Mahay in order to get lefty Mitch Maier.

Mahay hit Maier.

Bases loaded, down by four and with Billy Butler at the dish, this game suddenly didn't look like such a sure shot. Gardenhire power walked to the mound for the third time that inning, stuck two fingers up Mahay's nose, pulled down, said "Get outta here you knucklehead" and then poked Mahay in the eyes. Out came Jon Rauch.

Big, surly Jon Rauch. The Jon Rauch whose tattoo changes color depending on his mood. I think it's like a mood tattoo, and today it was green. Whatever green means, it didn't bode well for the Royals. Rauch dusted in and out with a couple of breaking balls, and then attacked the outer half with two consecutive fastballs, the second of which Butler just stood and watched without flinching. Strike three, good sir.

From there things got considerably easier. In the bottom half of the sixth Denard Span walked, and then scored on an Orlando Cabrera double down the left field line. After Kubel singled in the seventh, Carlos Gomez replaced him on the bases and later scored on a Matt Tolbert (TOL-BEAR!!) double into right. In the bottom half of the eighth Span singled, and then scored on a Cabrera double down the left field line. Yes, again. Oh, and one more thing.

"BOOM!" said Cuddyer. With authori-tah.

Astoundingly the Royals actually out-hit the Twins 12-11, with the difference being that A) the Twins walked seven times and B) the Twins out-homered the Royals 5-1. That kind of thing usually makes it very easy to win.

Brian Duensing, Jesse Crain and Francisco Liriano dusted off the final three innings without allowing a run, and at the end of the afternoon the Twins had done the unbelieveable: they'd swept the Royals, and earned themselves a shot at the division title.

While the White Sox couldn't complete the miracle, it hardly seems to matter. Minnesota was written off for dead, not just by most of the baseball world but by many of their own fans. And you know what? I don't blame anyone. I don't harbor any hard feelings toward anyone for looking at the mathematical probabilities on Friday morning and saying "nope". But it was't over then, and it's not over now.

Tuesday afternoon at four the Tigers come to town to defend a crown that should be theirs. There will be no pressure on the Twins in this game--they're "not supposed" to even be there. For the second year in a row the Twins have to play game 163 to decide whether or not they are the AL Central champions, to decide whether or not they earn the right to play post-season baseball. This time the game is being played where it should be played: in the comforts of Dome.

The season plays on for at least one more glorious afternoon of baseball. And we get once last shot under the teflon sky. Are you excited? Because you sure as hell should be.

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, .071 WPA)
#2: Carl Pavano (5.2 IP on three days rest, 8 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 4 R, .096 WPA)
#1: Jason Kubel (3-for-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 R, .257 WPA)

Mauer's MVP Beats Greinke's Cy Young, Twins Stave Off Comeback

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 00:12:08 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel, left, Michael Cuddyer, center and Joe Mauer, right, celebrate after scoring on a three-run double by Delmon Young off Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke in the sixth inning of a baseball game Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009, in Minneapolis. It was the final series in the Metrodome. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 5, Royals 4

There are no shortages of heroes in Minnesota tonight. A four-run sixth disappeared, but today the Twins weren't going to be denied.

For five and a half innings, Zack Greinke and Nick Blackburn traded zeros. The game's first hit didn't even come until Orlando Cabrera led off the bottom of the fourth, but for more than half of the contest it was a beautiful pitcher's duel. Stressful? Yes. But beautiful.

The Twins finally drew blood in the bottom of the sixth. Nick Punto drew an eight-pitch walk off Greinke to lead off the frame, before Denard "ideal leadoff guy" Span dropped down a made-to-order bunt on the first pitch he saw. With LNP standing on second base, Greinke's pitches began to sit high in the zone. He managed to get Cabrera to ground out to third base, but he wasn't able to keep Punto from advancing. With two out and the game still knotted at zero, up stepped Joe Mauer.

Greinke tried to bust Mauer up and in twice, with Joe taking atypical chances and taking cuts on them both and fouling them off. A pair of sliders just under the strike zone followed, leading to a 1-2 count before Greinke tried to come up and in with another fastball. This time, Joe did exactly what he meant to. He pulled it through the right side, and Punto finally scored to give the Twins a 1-0 lead.

Then the Royals ace came off the rails, just a little bit. Jason Kubel took an outer-half fastball and shot it down the left field line, for a moment saving Greinke from a run as it hit the turf and then bounced over the fence, keeping Mauer on third base. Then he hit Michael Cuddyer with a 94-mph fastball. For the third time in two days, the Royals loaded the bases for Delmon Young.

Maybe Greinke was feeling confident. Maybe he just didn't locate the ball where he wanted it to go. Maybe he and Miguel Olivo were over-thinking their strategy. For whatever reason, Greinke served Delmon a 95-mph first-pitch fastball somewhere between the letters and the belly button, and as everyone's favorite play-by-play guy likes to say, he didn't miss it. Young went the other way, dropping the ball into right field, clearing the bases to give the Twins a 4-0 lead.

Kansas City stuck with their man, even after Jose Morales singled on the next pitch. Even Matt Tolbert swung at the first pitch he saw, and he hit it hard. But this time the ball was blind, and Minnesota's rally came to and end. So did Greinke's afternoon.

A Mike Jacobs homer in the top of the seventh put Kansas City on the board, but it was the eighth that, if you were watching or listening or at this game, should have put the fear of the baseball gods right into you. Olivo led it off with a double, signaling the end of Blackburn's night. Jose Mijares replaced him, and I'm starting to wonder if he's inside of his own head a bit after throwing at Adam Everett on Thursday. Alex Gordon took the third fastball he saw and deposited it over the right field fence, cutting Minnesota's lead to one. Another single saw Mijares get the hook for Jon Rauch, who did his job one batter too late.

Willie Bloomquist singled, moving something called Tug Hutlett to third with no outs in the inning. Rauch got Mitch Maier to roll into a double play, but it scored the tying run. The Metrodome fell silent, and if you weren't having images of whatever playoff hopes you had crashing down in your subconscious, then I envy you. For a game that looked so well in hand to fall apart so quickly, it didn't look good.

You know who didn't care? You know who said "Get on my back, I have broad shoulders and really big dimples and the bat of a hero"? Michael Cuddyer. The same guy who Greinke nailed two innings prior watched a pair of pitches miss the zone before he decided to take a chance. Dusty Hughes threw a changeup, as straight as it could possibly be, right over the plate at about Cuddyer's knees. Cuddles turned on it, and lauched it into the home run porch in left field. He breathed life back into the season, into the team, and into the fans.

Joe Nathan struck out a pair in a perfect ninth inning to pick up save number 47, and once again the Minnesota Twins have won. It's not over yet, kids. No matter what happens tonight, tomorrow matters. And if by some miracle the Tigers lose tonight, tomorrow matters even more.

Holy crap. Can they do this?

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-4, 2B, 3 RBI, .154 WPA)
#2: Nick Blackburn (7+ IP, 2 R, 5 K, 0 BB, .305 WPA)
#1: Michael Cuddyer (1-for-3, HR, RBI, 2 R, .245 WPA)

Twins Sweep Royals, Michael Cuddyer Homers Twice In One Inning

Jesse — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 22:07:43 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

4 months ago: Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the Kansas City Royals, Sunday, Aug. 23, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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Good news, everyone! Twins 10, Royals 3

Carl Pavano rolled through most of his afternoon, mowing down Kansas City impressively for five innings, throwing up zeros and his hands in the air like he just didn't care. He allowed a few singles until he crested, retiring ten in a row to take him through the end of the fifth.

Mike Jacobs singled in David DeJesus for a run in the sixth, and after the Twins scored eight in the top of the seventh Pavano came out for the seventh as well. Mark Teahen and Mitch Maier both singled to start the frame before Pavano was able to fight back, and he allowed just one more run before finishing the seventh inning (and his afternoon) with 108 pitches.

Pounding the strike zone with mostly fastballs and changeups his first time through the Royals order, Pavano adjusted the second time through, throwing more sinking fastballs and sliders. He was around the plate all afternoon, and he made the Royals earn every single they picked up. Of the eight hits Pavano surrendered, only DeJesus' double to lead off the top of the sixth was for extra bases. No walks and just two strikeouts, he succeeded by inducing contact and keeping his defense active. Outfielders fought the sun, and Brendan Harris flashed some quick reflexes, but for the most part the defense did it's job without flash or error.

This was also the game that should probably show the Royals fans, players and front office that sending Alex Gordon down to triple-A (for service time I'm sure, regardless of the official why) was the wrong move. Teahen was ~~playing~~ manning the hot corner this afternoon, and proceeded to let a small handfull of hits trickle or fly by him. On the opposite corner of the infield, Billy Butler is much the same--a talented athlete who's even less mobile. Josh Anderson in right field didn't have a good afternoon, either.

Bob Keppel pitched a scoreless inning, his third scoreless appearances in ten over the course of August. Jeff Manship pitched the eighth, allowing one run by tightening up after letting his first two hitters get on base.

Offensively the story of the game would be one Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer homered twice, dropping bomb numbers 21 and 22 in the eight-run seventh. That feat means Cuddyer is the first Twin to homer twice in the same inning. Congratulations, sir! (Hat tip: fischean)

Denard Span picked up a triple and three RBI, with Brendan Harris and Orlando Cabrera each tallying a double to join the extra-base hit parade. Every Minnesota hitter picked up at least one hit, with Cuddyer, Span, Joe Mauer and Carlos Gomez picking up multiple-hit days.

Most importantly, the number one thing for today: while the Twins won, the White Sox lost. ~~If the~~ ~~Tigers~~ ~~can't overcome a 5-1 deficit in the seventh, the'll lose too. With any luck, Minnesota will be just 4.5 games out when the sun comes up tomorrow morning.~~ Division-leading Detroit lost too, after a late pounding from the A's, leaving the Twinks just 4.5 games out.

Three wins in a row = winning streak. Here's hoping we can ride this crest for a few days.

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Stars of the Game
#3: Denard Span (2-for-5, 3B, 3 RBI, R, .103 WPA)
#2: Carl Pavano (7 IP, 8 H, 2 K, 2 R, 0 BB, .206 WPA)
#1: Michael Cuddyer (3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, .222 WPA)

Quote of the Game Thread, from tobynotjason:

Posted this to SBG too:

After Delmon’s PA last inning I poked around Baseball Reference a little. I know his historically consistent 2nd-half improvement is well-known, but check this split out — it’s one I haven’t seen mentioned (and I apologize if it has been):
CAREER vs. Power pitchers (28%or more K+BB rate): .508 OPS.
Vs. Avg Power/Finesse (24-28% K+BB rate): .720.
Vs. Finesse pitchers (less than 24% K+BB rate): .951 OPS.

No, that is NOT typical. But it IS dramatic. Basically, if a pitcher relies on his stuff to strike guys out, he’s going to to own Delmon. If he relies on suppressing walks and/or inducing groundballs (the usual picture of a guy with less than 24% K+BBs, D. Young’s decent to great. If Prof. Gardenhire took note of this and benched him against power pitchers, his overall numbers would look pretty darn good. The problem, of course, is that means Gomez and his .474 OPS vs. Power pitchers (he splits like Young only worse across the board) plays, so it doesn’t get the team very far, I suppose. Still, though, interesting numbers.

One Easy Move for 2010: Make Mitch Maier the Regular Centerfielder

royalsreview — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 13:30:09 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

The Royals should seriously look at Mitch Maier as a cheap in-house solution in 2010. They won't, but they should. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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We should appreciate Mitch Maier a little more around here, because it's clear nobody else is going to.

Maier's not totally useless offensively and he's decent with the glove at an important position. He'll be 28 next season and likely near his peak as a player. Assuming the Royals don't pick up Coco Crisp's option ($8 million), Maier's a reasonable option in center, especially for the Major League minimum. Letting Maier and DeJesus roam two thirds of the outfield real estate would help offset the likely presence of Jose Guillen.

Obviously, you would have to say this is unlikely, because Dayton Moore likes to acquire centerfielders. Their actually being good is not a prerequisite either. In my mind, Joey Gathright, Ryan Freel and now Josh Anderson have all rented the same apartment during their time in KC. For years now, we've seen how Dayton places guys afield based on relatively minor elements of how they hit: center fielders should steal bases in Dayton's vision. Period. If David DeJesus was better at stealing bases and worse at everything else, he never would have lost his CF job, which is why the Royals ended up acquiring Coco Crisp after Gathright failed, and why every Royals affiliate below AAA has a guy who does nothing but steal bases playing CF.

Actually, Maier reminds me a little of Gathright's best qualities. Even when he was struggling this season, Maier was doing his damnedest to take pitches. The difference between Maier and Gathright is that Maier didn't cost the Royals J.P. Howell, and he's still got a modest power potential. Maier has slugged .458 in the minors, compared to Gathright's .366 mark. Josh Anderson, on the other hand, shares Gathright's lack of power, as his career slugging percentage in the minors is .366. Hopefully, Maier can drive the ball enough to earn enough respect to still post a decent OBP.

Since returning from Omaha on July 25, Mitch Maier has hit .348/.446/.457 in his last 56 plate appearances. His season line is still pretty pedestrian at .247/.332/.346, but a .332 OBP is nothing to dismiss on this team. Thanks to a good season afield, Maier's posted a 0.4 WAR in 2009, and, not to be redundant, but non-below-replacement-level players aren't something to dismiss on this team either. DeJesus (2.1), Coco (1.3) and Maier (0.4) are the only Royal outfielders to be above replacement level this season. That's right, Maier's been better than St. Willie (-0.4), who is supposedly having a career season.

(Dayton Moore acquired position players having an above replacement level season: Crisp, Olivo (1.2), Callaspo (0.9), Pena (0.7). Baird's guys have kept this from being a 110-loss team. Trust the process.)

This is what your farm system is supposed to do. Sure, everyone also wants stars, but producing guys who can be league average or slightly better, for the league minimum, for a year or two, also provides tremendous value to a team. Yes, Maier was taken 30th overall back in 2003, so he isn't going to go down as a great pick. Nevertheless, he's ready to contribute just in time for his peak years, which also gives the Royals another few years to find someone better before Maier gets too expensive.

The Royals have enough problems on the roster, including one Superfund site in right and another at shortstop that they don't know about, that they should be willing to accept a simple, if unsexy, solution in center. Mitch Maier now!

Royals DFA Tony Pena, Activate Yuniesky Betancourt and Alex Gordon

Charlie — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 04:41:00 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Yuniesky Betancourt will join the Royals Friday.

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The Royals have designated shortstop Tony Pena for assignment and optioned outfielder Mitch Maier to Class AAA Omaha to make room for third baseman Alex Gordon and new shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, MLB.com reports. Both will start for the Royals on Friday.

Pena's hitting the past two years has made Mark Belanger look like George Brett, in an era where the Belanger style of good-glove, no-hit starting shortstops isn't nearly as popular as it once was. Pena's .398 OPS last year was worse than nine teams' pitchers.

It's hard to find a shortstop worse than Pena, but the Royals certainly tried, as scores of commentators pointed out after Kansas City's ludicrous trade for Betancourt a few days ago. (Betancourt had been on the DL with a hamstring strain since then.) Betancourt's better with the stick, but his .609 OPS this year is itself pretty Belanger-esque, and Betancourt is a disaster in the field, to boot.

As for Gordon, I thought he might be poised for a breakout campaign after he bumped up his walk rate in 2008, so it's nice to see him back in action. He certainly showed no ill effects from his hip surgery in 13 minor-league rehab games, suiting up for Omaha, Class AA Northwest Arkansas, and the Royals' GCL team and hitting at every stop.

Maier failed to stick as a starting outfielder, posting a .598 OPS in 64 games this year, and at age 27, he probably never will. With Maier gone and Betancourt in the fold, it's pretty likely that Willie Bloomquist will play a bit less shortstop and pick up a few more starts in the outfield.

Catching up with Sam Mellinger on the Royals, the Rany Ban, and an Increasingly Controversial Season

royalsreview — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 03:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Owen-Betancourt wedding bells? There is something of a precedent here... Kansas City Royals third base coach Dave Owen congratulates Willie Bloomquist after hitting a solo home run off Minnesota Twins' Glen Perkins in the fifth inning of a baseball game Saturday, May 2, 2009 in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Sam Mellinger, part of the Kansas City Star's excellent baseball team since 2006, was kind enough to answer a few questions over email this weekend from St. Louis. You can also read his work online on his Ball Star blog. In his third interview (the first two can be found here and here) with Royals Review, Sam talks about the tumultuous 2009 season, the possibility of further trades, and what we should think of Dayton Moore.

RR: I can't recall a trade that went over worse, seemingly with everyone, than the Betancourt deal. What's your take?

Mellinger: I'm not really sure what I can add that hasn't been said already by many others, even before I (finally) put something on my blog. It's a bad trade, even if Cortes doesn't make it, because Betancourt is a bad player. The move tells me the Royals think they have too many holes in other places, and that finding their (ahem) shortstop here lets them focus in other areas.

I actually don't think it's as bad as most, but what I mean by that is that I don't think it's the worst trade in the history of the world ever, and something that puts all of humanity in danger. But in this whole thing, here is the most depressing part: Betancourt makes the Royals better at the big league level.

One more thing: was just talking with someone about Betancourt, and the obvious joke about Angel Berroa finally coming back to KC. I know I'm the reporter and I'm supposed to know this, but can you tell me if Dave Owen has a daughter Betancourt can marry?

RR: Does Mike Aviles have a future with the Royals?

Mellinger: Sure he does. The question is what kind of future. The feeling I get is that this is a very "Show-Me" situation, still. Even after what he did last year, scouts have almost no respect for him. But I also don't believe the Royals are entirely sold on Alberto Callaspo, whose defense continues to wipe out much of what he's capable of offensively. I do think that the Royals -- assuming they don't add a 2B -- are willing to sort of write off Aviles' bad 2009 as a product of that injury, and put him in a gotsta-prove-it situation where he's competing with Callaspo (and maybe Bloomquist?) for the starting 2B job next year. It sure would be a cool story if he made it.

RR: The Freel acquisition was generally seen as a portent of future trades to come, but post-Betancourt, it appears that Moore is again trying to position the team for 2010. Do you think we'll see any major trades later this month?

Mellinger: I know they're trying. The feeling in the front office seems to be that the season was absolutely torpedoed by injuries. They really thought they left spring training with a team capable -- emphasize capable -- of competing in the division. They still believe that, injuries aside, which is why they won't break up the Meche-Greinke-Soria nucleus. The problem, of course (on a couple levels) is that they just don't have a lot of valuable pieces outside
the group they won't trade. Teahen could help somebody. I tend to think they should sell high on Bannister. But nobody's taking on Guillen, who has a limited no-trade clause in his contract but a full no-trade clause in his performance, and DeJesus' down year has deflated his value.

This is also a good place to mention I'm not sharing the optimism. I've written about this on the blog, but if you look at the contracts, there isn't a lot of money coming off, and what does come off will likely be canceled out by arbitration guys getting raises. That means not much payroll flexibility for a team that needs it to get better. The two options then seem to be trades, or David Glass approving an even higher payroll one year after approving a 20 percent payroll hike produced one of the most disappointing seasons ever. You're a smart guy, so I won't tell you which is more likely.

RR: You're able to interact with readers on your blog and you've taken issue with some of the persistent complaints that get voiced on blogs and message boards. Do you sense that fans (and maybe media) are growing less patient with the Royals and less willing to give them a pass? Or is it just that people have more avenues to complain?

Mellinger: Absolutely fans are growing less patient, and absolutely fans have more avenues to complain (or praise). I also think it's important to remember that while there very likely has never been a better time to be a baseball fan, with all the information and analysis and everything else out there, it's probably dangerous to read message boards and blog comments and assume it's a perfect representation of how the entire fan base thinks.

The complaints we all read on those boards and blogs are mostly very justified. The Royals bumped their win total each year under Dayton, so I do believe that earns something of a benefit of the doubt. Barring lots of forfeits by opposing teams, that streak will almost certainly end this season. That's the most important thing, and not just because of the payroll hike or new stadium. The honeymoon between Dayton and Royals fans is very clearly over, another thing I've written about on the blog.

This might be a good place to mention that I absolutely love the interaction with fans who are nice enough to read what we do. E-mail, Twitter, the comments section on my blog, message boards in other places, I think it's essential for what I try to do. And that's good because I really enjoy it. I've found the vast majority of readers to be smart, friendly, and willing to respectfully disagree.

There's also a selfish element to all this, because I think the interactions and reading blogs and message boards and everything else makes me better and what I'm trying to do.

RR: You were somewhat critical of both parties regarding the Rany Ban. Since the Royals have come in for loads of criticism already, can you talk a little about the mistakes that you believe Rany made in his post on the Royals medical staff?

Mellinger: Again, I'm not sure what I can add that I didn't put in that blog post. I probably spent more time on that post than just about any other, trying to make sure my thoughts came across clear. I think and hope each side feels I was at least fair and accurate. I talked to Rany and Swanson both, before and since, and I think whatever regrets each guy has do not change their bigger stance on the matter.

Since you're asking about Rany and not the Royals...I think Rany had an intriguing larger point that was clouded a bit by some holes in his arguments, which were made greater by focusing on the trainer (who really is low on the totem pole of decision making) and not at least making a phone call. Then after the Royals overreacted, I think Rany misrepresented what was happening with some of his wording. I think some would be surprised how often reporters and sources have big arguments on this level or higher, but they are usually handled privately.

The Royals never "banned" Rany, and were not capable or interested in canceling his get-together. I haven't talked to Rany or Swanson since all this stuff was hot, but at that time, I still felt there was a chance someone from the Royals could come down and meet Rany's group.

But, like I said, the bulk of the blame goes to the Royals.

RR: When you talk to people around baseball, is there still the old consensus that Dayton Moore can and will rebuild the Royals?

Mellinger: Yes on "can," mostly yes on "will." Some offseason moves are very clearly backfiring, and there's not a whole to add about how miserable this season is turning out. It may very well cost Trey Hillman his job.

The Titanic continues to play three hours a night on Fox Sports KC, sometimes even in HD, so it's hard to keep in mind that the most important stuff is not what's happening at the K, and not even what's going on in Omaha or Springdale, but Wilmington and Burlington. The focus of Dayton and his peeps has always been player development, and the two drafts they've been in charge of were all mostly praised.

In the short-term, things look pretty bleak around the Royals. But in the long-term, Mike Jacobs is irrelevant if Eric Hosmer turns out. Yuniesky Betancourt is irrelevant if Jeff Bianchi turns out. Mitch Maier is irrelevant if Derrick Robinson turns out. Miguel Olivo is irrelevant if one of the catchers turns out and, to be fair, Gil Meche is irrelevant if Danny Duffy/Aaron Crow/Mike Montgomery/etc DON'T turn out.

But at the very least, the disaster we're seeing at the big league level is taking the shine off the Dayton regime. They should be better than this, even with injuries, and if Trey does end up losing his job (or next season begins with everyone thinking Trey SHOULD have lost his job) it's a major hit on Dayton.

RR: Lastly, I think many people would regard you as a generally positive voice. The 2010 Royals don't figure to be too much different than this year's team, especially after the Betancourt trade. Does 2010 matter for you in terms of evaluating the current administration? Or, is this still a much longer term rebuild?

Mellinger: Yeah, and I think 2009 matters, too. I guess I should've read this question before typing my answer to that last question. My bad.

Look, the Royals are at least still telling themselves they had a division contender when they left spring training (when my prediction of 78-79 wins seemed lower than 90% of fan predictions). Lots of factors have ruined that. If Dayton and his people want to take another shot at it in 2010 with mostly the same team, I'll be interested to see what happens. And if 2010 turns out even close to as bad as 2009 is going right now, then we're all going to feel not just like we're watching Groundhog Day, but keep popping in the DVD every night after dinner.

I've been mostly positive about the bigger direction of the franchise in the last three years, because it's been getting mostly better. Next year will be Dayton's fourth full season, and he's got a big boy job, so, yeah, that's past being able to evaluate a lot of things. Full, final evaluation? Probably not.

We all like to think about Tampa going worst-to-first in a single bound, and I'm guilty of that, too, but it ignores the 10 years of losing that came before. Colorado made the jump to the World Series a few years back, but that came after six years of losing. Both those turnarounds were built on player development (the Rockies had, I believe 17 homegrown players on their WS roster) and player development almost always takes time, no matter what Albert Pujols and Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun would lead us to believe.

I'm not saying we should all wait until Dayton's been around 10 years or even six. I'm just saying that the important stuff is how his drafted and developed prospects progress, and that part of it needs time. What doesn't need as much time is to judge how the current administration put together a big league roster.

Thanks again to Sam for his time.

Two Curious Acquisitions: Hairston to Oakland, Freel to Kansas City; or, the Real Deal with Ryan Freel

devil_fingers — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 18:02:21 -0000

[Note: I'm sure you're all thinking, "boy, that devil_fingers guy is really witty. But sometimes I wonder if there are thoughts he has that he isn't sharing on Driveline's website, or sometimes I just wonder what he ate during the day, or if the Royals are making so many great moves that d_f can't cover them all in two posting, or what his favorite Frank Zappa guitar solos are." Yup, that's what you're thinking. Well, think no longer, as I'm now on twtter: http://twitter.com/devil_fingers

Suicide now.]

I don't think we'll be covering every single trivial transaction, but when Ryan Freel is involved, you gotta comment. Oh, and the As acquired Scot Hairston.

Let's start with Freel.

Ryan Freel

#0 / Third Base / Kansas City Royals

Height: 5-9

Weight: 180

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Mar 08, 1976

That picture makes him look 48 years old.

As a summary, here's a simple analogy by way of Grass Creek, Wyoming:

Russell Branyan:Mike Jacobs::
Ryan Langerhans:Ryan Freel

So... Ryan Freel. Freel was a pretty good player for the Reds a few years ago. Playing a mixture of outfield, 2B, and 3B, Freel put up 2.5 WAR in 2004, 2.2 WAR in 2006, and a very impressive 3.9 in 2006 according to FanGraphs (Rally's numbers are similar, if not as high on 2006). But, well, 2006 was a long time ago. At 33, and coming off of some injuries... An quick in-season Marcels pegs Freel for a .310 wOBA the rest of the season. In the current run environment, that makes him about a -12 hitter over 700 PAs.

As for his fielding, Freel's been a super-utility guyf or years, and it's not clear how the Royals will use him. With CoCo Crisp out, the Royals have been using the underwhelming Mitch Maier in CF. While Freel's career UZR/150 numbers in CF are pretty good, most of that data is from a few years ago. Rally's TotalZone projections for Freel are probably more helpful here: -7 in CF, +1 in the corners. Hs TotalZone numbers and UZR taken together indicate a guy who's probably about avereage at this point at 2B and 3B.

His value as an infielder over a full season: -12 batting + 0 fielding + 2.5 positoin +20 NL replacment level (projections are based on playing tim in the NL) = +10.5 * 85% playing time = ~0.9 WAR player. Over half a season, that's less than half a win. I guess that's worth it as long as the PTBNL never sees any significant time in the majors.

So it's not terrible or great... but what, really, is the point? If the Royals are getting ready to trade David DeJesus (the current LF) or Mark Teahen (playing 3B until Alex Gordon gets back), maybe they need a placefiller for the rest of the season, and with Freel's salary being picked up, that's okay. He might make sense as a utility player for free... hey, good thing they already have an even worse guy like that in Willie Bloomquist. With CoCo Crisp's injury, maybe they're sick of Mitch Maier in CF... yeah, he isn't great, but what's the point? Mitch is probably a 4th OF at best (projects for average defense in CF with a bat bat), but isn't that just a younger, cheaper version of Freel? Even if the Royals are dumb enough to think they still have a chance at the playoffs, Freel is at best barely better than Maier. If they're rebuilding, why not find out what you have in Maier? As a Royals fan, I'm glad the front office got a guy for (seemingly) nothing, but given that he essentially has no upside, the whole thing seems pointless at best.

In summary -- we don't have the whole picture yet of what this trade means. At best, it's a "meh." At worst, it's a sign that the Royals front office doesn't understand the point of scouring the waivers wires or getting undervalued players to build for the future, rather than scrambling for 75 wins again. In other words, the same-old stuff from Dayton Moore.

Wow, I can't believe I spent all that time on Ryan Freaking Freel.

Scott Hairston

#12 / Right Field / Oakland Athletics

Height: 6-0

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 25, 1980

Given that this is another deal where the PTBNL is supposed to be significant, and given that I don't know much about the prospects included in the trade by Oakland (RHPs Ryan Webb and Craig Italiano), I don't have a whole lot to say about this beyond what Jack Moore wrote at Beyond the Box Score and Dave Cameron wrote at FanGraphs. The Padres shed $1.25M salary for some relievers... I'm not sure what the point is, especially given Hairston's price and ability.

Offensively, the quick Marcels gives him a .346 wOBA (although that's probably a bit low given that he's been in Petco Park the last two season). That's about a +10/700 bat. Rally's preseason TotalZone projections have him as a -8 CF, although UZR sees him as above average. Let's call him average. So +10 offense + 2.5 position + 0 defense +20 NL replacement level =32.5 * 85% playing time = ~2.7 WAR player. Yikes... for $1.25M a season and club control. Not sure what the point is for San Diego (who also gave up on Jody Gerut way too quickly). That better be one heck of a PTBNL. For Oakland, they get a guy who helps them now, can fill the void when, I mean IF (ahem) Matt Holliday gets traded, or could is even an attractive trade piece himself. I'm not sure what this means for Ryan Sweeney when he gets back for for Aaron Cunningham down the road. Billy Beane's team may not be racking up the wins the season, but his moves are setting up stuff down the road.

Summing up: the Cubs dump a superfluous player, the Padres shed a tiny salary for no good reason, the As pick up a good player on the cheap, and the Royals make another seemingly pointless trade. These front offices are what we thought they were.

29-35

NHZ — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 03:41:59 -0000

Diamondbacks 12, Royals 5.

Greinke was not at his best tonight, and still struck out nine Arizonans. This should tell you something about how good Greinke is, and how bad the National League is.
That said, I don't see why Hillman left him in for 115 pitches when he was laboring pretty badly.
Our defense is still terrible.
Positives....uh....Mitch Maier was 3-for-5. Jose Guillen was 3-for-4. Mike Jacobs and Billy Butler both had two hits and a walk.
Miguel Olivo was horrible today. 0-for-3 with two strikeouts to bring his season K:BB to 53:2. I didn't think I'd see anyone eclipse Todd Greene's 2003 in that regard. And yet, here we are. Do people still think that Buck's adequacy is worse than Olivo's brand of hopelessness?
We let Tug Hulett into the game today. We'll probably demote him tomorrow. Not that it's incrediby relevant to this particular game, but baseball isn't much of a meritocracy when it comes to the 25th man types. Willie Bloomquist is a millionaire and Hulett is probably thrilled to be receiving a major league paycheck for once. Please let me know if you can find a difference between the two players that's worth a two-year, multimillion deal.
Luis Hernandez pinch hit. Which is just amazing. Just go back and read up on the Camden Chat threads when Hernandez was the starting SS for the O's last year. Fun stuff.
Luis Hernandez had a hit and an RBI. He probably DOES work the count better than Olivo!
We're now 8-6 in games that the Cy Young frontrunner has pitched.

Series Preview: 6/2-6/4 Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 15:26:57 -0000

6/2: Kyle Davies vs. Andy Sonnanstine (7:08 SS)

6/3: Brian Bannister vs. Jeff Niemann (7:08 FSF)

6/4: Gil Meche vs. James Shields (4:08 SS)

C John Buck/Miguel Olivo

1B Billy Butler

2B Alberto Callapso

3B Mark Teahen

SS Luis Hernandez

LF David DeJesus

CF Mitch Maier

RF Jose Guillen

No lengthy preview today; Davis is eh, Bannister is meh, and Meche is ... huh, a sub-3 FIP? Also, this is fantastic (h/t Eric Seidman):

Delmon Young: 117 PA, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, .251 wOBA
Willie Bloomquist: 111 PA, 2 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, .346 wOBA

2003 Royals Draft Review

nwroyal — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 14:59:22 -0000

Sorry for the absence, life got busy and then I got crazy sick but thankfully am mended.

2003 sure does seem like a long time ago doesn't it? There was "Mission Accomplished", the Dow was at 10,000 and the Allard Baird Royals were leading the AL Central for a good part of the Summer. They also had one of the hottest pitching prospects in all of baseball tearing up the minors in Zack Greinke. The Royals held the 5^th overall pick in the June Draft. They also got a compensation pick (#30 overall) for losing Paul Byrd to free agency.

1^st Round (overall pick #5

Let me pat myself on the back and say that I was not a fan of drafting Chris Lubanski-of course the guy I was hoping for has been an even bigger disappointment. The reports on Baseball America in the days before the draft indicated that the Royals wanted to take Ryan Harvey a big HS outfielder with huge power. The Royals desperately needed power at the time and I thought this guy was it. (it turns out power was the only thing Harvey had). Signability was an issue and the Royals decided not to take him at the last minute and went with Chris Lubanski-a HS CF from Pennsylvania. Lubanski was supposed to be a 5 tool talent-who might take a little time to develop because he was from a cold-weather state. His family had built a batting cage in the basement of their home so Chris could work on his hitting in the winter. He signed quickly and he got off to a promising start in the Arizona League, posting a 834 OPS in over 200 abs.

In 2004, he went to the Midwest league where he posted a 759 OPS. He stole 16 bases and got caught 11 times-not great for a guy who was supposed to be a burner and the whispers about his CF defense had already started. In 2005 he went to the High Desert and had an inflated 903 OPS with 38 walks and 131 Ks but was already being moved over to LF because his arm couldn't play in right and he couldn't cover enough ground in center. 2006 looked like it would be a pivotal year as he went to AA. He posted an 844 OPS in AA that year and then and 851 OPS for the first half of 2007. He was talking more walks but his speed was all but gone. Promoted in the middle of 2007 to Omaha, he struggled with an 636 OPS in 168 abs and a 18/48 bb/k ratio. Last year, back at Omaha he posted a 754 OPS with a 38/130 bb/k ratio. He's had a decent spring but its hard to see Lubanski as anything more than a 4^th outfielder. He supposedly worked on his speed this offseaon-probably so he can play something beside LF and make himself more valuable coming off the bench. He will turn 24 in a few weeks so he's still relatively young and there is always the chance he goes Mike Aviles on us-which would be great-but I'm not holding my breath.

Here is how I would rate Lubanski against the 9 players taken after him:

Nick Markakis-Orioles-pick #7
John Danks-Rangers #9
Lastings Milledge-Mets #12
Ian Stewart-Rockies #10
Paul Maholm-Pirates #8
Aaron Hill-Blue Jays #13
Michael Aubrey-Indians #11
Ryan Wagner-Reds #14
Chris Lubanski-Royals--#5
Ryan Harvey-Cubs-#6

You can't win them all can you? Everyone raked the Orioles over the coals for taking Markakis as a hitter--most folks thought he should be a pitcher. The 2003 draft seems like it was pretty light on talent.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Chris-Lubanski.shtml

1^st Round 30^th Overall (for Paul Byrd)

The previous year was the famous "Moneyball" draft of the A's. By the summer of 03, Michael Lewis' book was being talked about in baseball circles. Who knows if that had any influence at all but the Royals took a high OBP college player with this pick-Mitch Maier from the University of Toledo. Mitch hit 448/525/691 his junior season as a catcher. We moved him to third base and eventually the outfield-where he is a good defensive player. Maier hit great in Arizona league in 03, struggled a little at Burlington in 04, raked in High Desert in 05, did OK at AA in 06, struggled in AAA in 07 and improved in AAA in 08. Drafting Maier seemed like a good idea at the time and he's not a total flop but it shows what a crapshoot taking the supposedly safest route in the draft is. He will probably go back to Omaha this year and could be useful as a fourth outfielder but if a teams has to play him every day in the big leagues that isn't a very good sign.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Mitch-Maier.shtml

Supplemental 1^st Round picks included: Matt Murton, Adam Miller, Adam Jones, Jarrod Saltamacchia

2^nd Round

The Royals went back to the college realm for their 2^nd round choice a stocky outfielder from Cal-Stat-San Bernadino-Shane Costa. Costa is similar to Maier-Costa's bat is probably a little better and Maier's got the edge when it comes to the glove. Costa is already 27 but I've always been curious what he could do with semi-regular playing time.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Shane-Costa.shtml

Other picks in this round: Tom Gorzelanny, Ryan Sweeney, Andre Ethier, Nate Schierholtz

3^rd Round

As they did in 2002, the Royals used their 3^rd round pick for a "who is that?" choice. Robert McFall was a JUCO 1^st baseman and Chandler-Glibert. He wasn't on the radar for the top 5 rounds but the Royals liked his power even though the rest of his game was not real polished. He has produced good power with a lot of Ks and not many walks. In 2007, he looked like perhaps he had turned a corner, posting an 841 OPS in Wilmington.

A year ago I was touting him as a sleeper prospect. But at AA he posted an 783 OPS-decent but not great for a 24 year old corner outfielder. It seem unlikely he will ever contribute at the big league level.

Other picks in this round: Chris Ray, Ryan Garko, Shaun Marcum, Sean Rodriguez

4^th Round

In the 4^th Round the Royals took a HS 3^rd baseman from Puerto Rico, Miguel Vega. There were actually rumblings that this kid might go in the 1^st round. He was known for huge power but being raw. The Royals took him and I was convinced we had a steal. We didn't. His bb/k ratios for 06 and 07:12/122, 19/137. He got 74 abs in Wilmington last year and then didn't play anymore-I'm guessing he got hurt. We'll see if he's still around this year or not.

Other picks in this round: Jonathan Papelbon, Michael Bourn, Josh Anderson

Other picks of note:

5^th-9^th Rounds

In the 5^th-9^th Rounds the Royals took 5 college seniors. Chris Goodman, Ryan Braun, Mike Aviles, Brandon Powell and John Gragg. They offered each of these seniors a take it or leave it signing bonus of $1,000-which is well below what players in those round normally get. These 5 guys were out of college eligibility so they couldn't go back to school and if they wanted to pursue baseball-they had to sign.

For $5,000 the Royals got what looks to be a average/good SS in Mike Aviles and once upon a time closer prospect in Ryan Braun. For the money, that's a good deal. But I also can't help but wonder that those tactics helped either cement or reinforce the idea of the Royals being desperately and stupidly cheap and that David Glass was sitting on his pile of money while the Royals stunk. Telling is the fact that this tactic was not used again by us and not by any other franchise that I know of (although the Royals were known for skimping in later rounds of the draft for the next few years).

Back to Mike Aviles, the kid put up some crazy numbers in college. He put up OPS numbers between 750-800 as he made his way up the system (the only exception being his initial taste of AAA in 2006-a 680 OPS). Last year he went crazy in Omaha with a 1001 OPS and then came up here and for 419 at bats was one of the best shortstops in baseball.

Other picks in this round: our own Brian Bannister, Kyle Kendrick, Reggie Willits, Brendan Ryan

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Mike-Aviles.shtml

10^th Round Luis Cota

The Royals took a HS righty in the 10^th Round-he went to JUCO and we followed him as a draft and follow. Luis Cota's fastball spiked in the spring of 2004 and he was one of the top draft and follow prospects. We could either sign him up until a few weeks before the draft or he would go back into the draft pool for 04. We signed him for just over $1 million. He had a decent 05 at Burlington but got lit up at High Desert in 06. He missed 07 with injury and pitched 60 innings last year in the low minors.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Luis-Cota.shtml

Recap:

The Royals wanted to improve their hitting depth in this draft. The Royals first 5 picks were all hitters. Other than that there is no theme that holds this draft together. A Mix of HS and College player. Cheap selections and an expensive draft and follow. I'd give this draft a "C-". A year ago, it might have gotten an "F". Your view of this draft depends on:

if you think Mike Aviles will continue to be a good Major League player
if you think Shane Costa, Mitch Maier, and even Chris Lubanski can be role players.

One thing I noticed from this draft: the Royals took a bunch of players from funky schools. Lubanski from Pennsylvania-not exactly a baseball hotbed. College players from: U. of Toledo, Cal. State Bernanadino, Georgia Institute of Technology. The Royals seemed to want to take some good "stats" guys but from small schools where the stats were not as meaningful (caveat: the one guy who panned out was from Concordia College).