SB Nation - Sean Rodriguez

Should The Rays Trade Carlos Pena?

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 11:00:16 -0000

One of the larger topics this offseason has centered on what to do with Carl Crawford. Now that the Rays have picked up his $10 million dollar option they are left with a couple scenarios: trading him now, trading him later, signing him to an extension, or let him walk and take the compensatory pick(s). While CC is and will remain the hot topic for the unforeseeable future, I have been wondering about the Rays other $10 million dollar man, Carlos Pena.

Honestly, I try and to not play favorites, but how can you not when it comes to Carlos Pena? Nevertheless, I've come to the realization that maybe in addition to Crawford, it's time to explore the possibility of a Pena move. Of course, one isn't really reliant on the other and both, one, or none of them could be traded anyway.

Obligatory disclaimer: This is merely speculation. The Rays haven't said they are actively shopping Pena.

First, let's look at the most important fact; Pena will make $10.25 million dollars in 2010. This makes him the team's highest paid player. However, in terms of WAR, he was narrowly the seventh best Rays player this past season. If you want to make the argument that his season was cut short due to injury, Pena was not cracking the top five for the Rays regardless of a full season. This doesn't mean he wasn't valuable; a 2.6 WAR is worth $11.9 million dollars and Pena made $8 million, but the Rays highest paid player shouldn't be their fifth, sixth or seventh best player on the team.

Pena's three-year WAR average has him at a 4.2. If he is able to produce that at $10 million dollars then that is a bargain, but that average is also heavily skewed by his 6.2 WAR in the 2007 season. After posting a 3.8 in 2008, Pena was again down to 2.6 in 2009.

Offensively, there is little doubt that Pena can, and will, still mash. The player friendly projection of Bill James has him slugging .498 in 2010 and I think that may be a bit on the low side. It's the other portions of Pena's game that had me worried. While the Power remains, his patience at the plate and his sharp batting eye have wandered slightly the past few seasons.

After posting a lovely 17.4% walk rate in 2007, Pena's BB% has declined in the past few seasons. Coinciding with the decline in walks is an increase in strikeouts, and not surprisingly an increase in swings on pitches out of the zone.

	BB%	K%	O-Swing%
2007	17.4	29	19.8
2008	16.4	33.9	20.8
2009	15.6	34.6	23.6

Walking 15% of the time is still pretty good, but the K's are at an all time high. Even though we know this is part of his game, it's still not a trend you want to see.

Defensively, Pena had a pretty rough season finishing with a UZR of -4.6. However, his three year average is ever so slightly above average at 0.4. Odds are he will be right at average or slightly below in the field next year, unless 2009 was just the beginning of a defensive avalanche.

Beyond the high salary and some production concerns, there are also the compensation issue. Trading Pena won't net the same type of return as Crawford and nobody should expect such a thing. However, for a team who's looking for power, can accept a few flaws, and afford the price tag, Pena is very attractive option even if it's for a one year rental. I'm not going to speculate on a return, but I'm guessing the Rays could do pretty well in any potential deal.

What I do want to look at is the return if Pena is retained and then walks at the end of the season. According to Eddie Bajek's Elias Projections, Carlos Pena is a type B free agent. Remember, this is based on his 2008 and 2009 seasons. When/if Pena hits the market next season, his compensation will be based on 2009 and 2010. Usually players who have declined over a three-year period while getting older don't improve from one season to the next, however, there are always exceptions. Nonetheless, a Type-A ranking for first basemen doesn't come easy; none of the 2009 free agent first basemen have Type-A status and only Mark Teixiera earned it in 2008.

I have no idea how the Elias rankings are created, but over the two years before he hit free agency, Teixeira averaged a slash line of .307/.406/.557 with nearly 32 home runs. Over the last two seasons, Pena has averaged .237/.367/.515 with 35 bombs. I'm going to assume that to obtain a Type-A status, Pena's going to need to regain his 2007 form and then some, which is unlikely. What's more than likely to happen is Pena will retain Type-B status and his former team will receive a supplemental pick instead of the potential two picks a Type-A would.

This raises another issue. Getting draft picks for potential free agents is not necessarily a good thing for the Rays. Sure, adding young talent is always welcomed, but even late first round picks cost money (see LeVon Washington). The Rays already have four high picks in next year's draft. If they aren't able to sign all four they will receive an addittional compensatory pick(s) in 2011. This will be in addition to their regular pick and any potential picks received from free agents with "type" status( Crawford, Pena, etc.). That could end up as a lot of money for unproven talent; or on a few picks not wasted, per se, but picks not maximized due to budget restrictions.

Once more, Pena is still a good player and even at $10 million dollars should still provide value, but for a Rays team looking to cut corners in places to improve others, a look in his direction is smart business. Replacing Pena wouldn't be easy, but it wouldn't be as hard as say, replacing a Carl Crawford.

For example, Russell Branyan is a free agent. Coming off a 2.8 WAR season, Branyan could give you similar production for probably half the cost. Branyan is also looking for a two-year deal, so he may not be ideal. The Rays could go the platoon route and find a dance partner for Willy Aybar. Another former Ray, Eric Hinske could work well with Aybar. Or the Rays could go the unconventional route and move Ben Zobrist to first allowing Sean Rodriguez to get the bulk of the time at second base. I could go on rosterbating, but you get the point.

There are the intangibles: leadership, smile%, pre-game dances, and between pitch mound meetings, but in terms of things we can measure, exploring a deal involving Pena seems prudent for a team that is constantly working around the big payroll elephant in the room.

Best Angels Prospect Performances, Going Back to 2005

rghan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:02:48 -0000

Below is a compilation of the Halos' best prospect performances going back to 2005. I give two run values for position players: the "+ bat" is how many more runs that prospect created over their league's average player according to a widely-used runs created formula. The "+ glove" is how many runs that player saved in the field according to Sean Smith's "TotalZone" defensive metric. For pitchers, I compare their runs allowed per game to the league average to generate the "runs saved" metric. Both pitchers and position players are then ranked by "WAR," or "Wins Above Replacement," which is an inclusive metric that incorporates each player's runs values with adjustments for playing time and position. Using the replacement-level concept for minor leaguers brings up all kinds of theoretical sabermetric questions, but I have my reasons for keeping the calculations as similar as I could to those used for major leaguers.

Lastly, keep in mind that WAR is a counting stat and minor leaguers play at least 10% fewer games than their major league counterparts, so a 3.9 WAR here is more impressive (for temporal reasons only) than a 3.9 WAR over a 162 game schedule.

30) Anthony Ortega, 2007, High A

7 wins, 11 losses. 163.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 127 K / 68 BB. +13 runs saved, 3.9 WAR.

29) Mike Napoli, 2005, AA

.237/.372/.508 with 31 HR's and 12 SB's. +18 bat, 3.9 WAR

28) Freddy Sandoval, 2008, AAA

.335/.389/.514 with 15 HR's and 6 SB's. +18 bat, +3 glove, 4.0 WAR

27) Hainley Statia, 2006, A and High A

.298/.380/.382 with 1 HR and 24 SB's. +7 bat, +12 glove, 4.0 WAR

26) Peter Bourjos, 2009, AA

.281/.354/.423 with 6 HR's and 32 SB's. +7 bat, +15 glove, 4.1 WAR

25) Sean Rodriguez, 2008, AAA

.306/.397/.645 with 21 HR's and 4 SB's. +24 bat, +6 glove, 4.1 WAR

24) Brok Butcher, 2007, High A and AA

6 wins, 9 losses. 139.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 77 K / 35 BB. +22 runs saved, 4.1 WAR

23) Trevor Bell, 2009, AA and AAA

7 wins, 7 losses. 140 IP, 2.70 ERA, 89 K/36 BB. +22 runs saved, 4.1 WAR

22) Sean Rodriguez, 2007, AA

.254/.345/.423 with 17 HR's and 15 SB's. +11 bat, +7 glove, 4.2 WAR

21) Matthew Brown, 2008, AAA

.320/.373/.580 with 21 HR's and 4 SB's. +25 bat, +6 glove, 4.3 WAR

20) Freddy Sandoval, 2007, AA

.305/.392/.468 with 11 HR's and 21 SB's. +21 bat, +3 glove, 4.4 WAR

19) Peter Bourjos, 2008, High A

.295/.326/.444 with 9 HR's and 50 SB's. +0 bat, +24 glove, 4.4 WAR

18) Trevor Reckling, 2009, High A and AA

9 wins, 9 losses. 154.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 122 K/78 BB. +25 runs saved, 4.4 WAR

17) Nick Adenhart, 2006, A and High A

15 wins, 4 losses. 158.1 IP, 2.56 ERA, 145 K/42 BB. +27 runs saved, 4.5 WAR

16) Anthony Norman, 2008, High A

.257/.381/.468 with 15 HR's and 36 SB's. +13 bat, +22 glove, 4.5 WAR

15) Chris Pettit, 2006, Advanced Rookie Ball

.336/.445/.566 with 7 HR's and 5 SB's. +24 bat, +14 glove, 4.5 WAR

14) Reggie Willits, 2006, AAA

.327/.448/.426 with 3 HR's and 15 SB's. +12 bat, +19 glove, 4.6 WAR

13) Alexander Torres, 2009, AA

13 wins, 4 losses. 147.1 IP, 2.75 ERA, 149 SO/80 BB. +28 runs saved, 4.7 WAR

12) Roberto Lopez, 2008, Advanced Rookie Ball

.400/.480/.667 with 14 HR's and 3 SB's. +42 bat, -3 glove, 4.7 WAR

11) Joe Saunders, 2006, AAA

10 wins, 3 losses. 135 IP, 2.67 ERA, 97 K/38 BB. +31 runs saved, 4.8 WAR

10) Clayton Fuller, 2008, A

.260/.379/.425 with 9 HR's and 36 SB's. +20 bat, +9 glove, 4.8 WAR

9) Sean Rodriguez, 2009, AAA

.299/.4 00/.616 with 29 HR's and 9 SB's. +36 bat, -2 glove, 5.0 WAR

8) Chris Pettit, 2007, A and High A

.327/.411/.538 with 18 HR's and 30 SB's. +43 bat, -7 glove, 5.1 WAR

7) Howie Kendrick, 2006, AAA

.369/.408/.631 with 13 HR's and 11 SB's. +33 bat, +7 glove, 5.2 WAR

6) Carlos Ramirez, 2009, Advanced Rookie Ball

.389/.514/.695 with 10 HR's and 0 SB's. +36 bat, +8 glove, 5.3 WAR

5) Stephen Marek, 2006, A and High A

12 wins, 5 losses. 151.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 133 K/ 37 BB. +36 runs saved, 5.3 WAR

4) Alexia Amarista, 2009, A

.319/.390/.468 with 4 HR's and 38 SB's. +18 bat, +20 glove, 5.8 WAR

3) Howie Kendrick, 2005, High A and AA

.367/.406/.614 with 19 HR's and 25 SB's. +44 bat, +8 glove, 6.7 WAR

2) Sean Rodriguez, 2006, High A

.307/.387/.557 with 29 HR's and 15 SB's. +35 bat, +13 glove, 7.4 WAR

1) Brandon Wood, 2005, High A

.321/.383/.672 with 43 HR's and 7 SB's. +54 bat, +8 glove, 8.7 WAR

Alexia Amarista: Best Angels Prospect Performance #1

rghan — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:29:26 -0000

1) Alexia Amarista, 20 - 2B, A-Ball

.319/.390/.468 with 4 HR and 38 SB's. +18 bat, +20 glove

Only three players have put up better seasons in the Halos' system over the past five years: Brandon Wood in 2005, Howie Kendrick in 2005, and Sean Rodriguez in 2006. That's some pretty good company for Amarista, whom Baseball America failed to even mention in their Midwest League's top 20 prospects, despite the fact that he won the batting title, was voted best defensive second baseman by the league's managers, and was younger than half of the guys who made the top 20. The reason for the snub, of course, is Amarista's height - he's 5'6" or 5'5," depending on who you ask, though he's built like a cornerback - which means he may be maxed out physically. This is more of a scouting/projectability issue, which is not my area of expertise, so take my feelings on the matter with a grain of salt. Screw BA on this one. With Amarista's blend of batting eye, high contact rate, speed, gap power and consistency, he's likely to continue producing with the bat as he ascends through the minors (unlike, say Clay Fuller from last year, who in retrospect lacked the contact rate and consistency). And even if advanced pitching causes the bat to tail off at the higher levels, the glove alone will continue to make him an interesting prospect. Is his ceiling huge? No, but there's enough here statistically not to write him off.

One last thing: Fangraphs credits Amarista with a +27.5 bat, due to the massive park factor they use and an added premium for speed. I'm not sure he was that good, but I would concede that his true value likely fell somewhere between the 5.75 wins ("WARP") I have him down for, and the ~6.5 wins that the fangraphs' numbers would suggest. In a 144 game minor league season, that is phenomenal.

Carlos Ramirez: Best Angels Prospect Performance #2

rghan — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:14:46 -0000

2) Carlos Ramirez, 21 - C, Advanced Rookie Pioneer League

.389/.514/.695 with 10 HR and 0 SB's. +36 bat, +8 glove

Sammy Swenson. Matt Pali. Josh Gray. Sergio Contreras. Grodon Gronkowski. Those are some other guys who pounded the ball in the Pioneer League over the past decade, but never encored against advanced competition. I mention them only to provide the perspective one has to have when looking at ridiculous Pioneer League stats.

That said, Ramirez' offensive production was better than all of them, and better than the production of more well known Pioneer League mashers Chris Pettit, Roberto Lopez, Dallas McPherson, Howie Kendrick and Sean Rodriguez. He didn't make his debut until July 19th, so only managed 214 PA's, but they were the best PA's Orem has seen in at least a decade. Throw in the fact that he's an above average receiver with excellent intangibles, and we may have a major leaguer on our hands. Behind Conger and Wilson there is little standout catching depth, so Ramirez, who is just a hair younger than Conger, could move very quickly next year.

And if you still need convincing, let me insert a quote from Sean Smith, creator of TotalZone, who was interested in putting Ramirez' college numbers from ASU into context:

Comparing [Ramirez' college] numbers to a pair of Sun Devils, Andre Ethier and Dustin Pedroia, I get:

avg slg

C-Ram 361 635

Ped 384 544

AE 371 559

I only have Carlo's walk numbers for 2009 so I didn't compare OBP, but his walk rate is similar to theirs, though he strikes out more often than they did.

The Halos tried and failed to sign Ramirez after selecting him in the 34th round of the 2007 draft. Makes you wonder why he was still around in the 8th round this year, doesn't it?

Again, remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2009, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking.

Sean Rodriguez: Best Angels Prospect Performance #3

rghan — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 02:29:43 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

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3) Sean Rodriguez, 24 - 2B, OF, SS, AAA

.299/.400/.616 with 29 HRs and 9 SBs. +36 bat, -2 glove

Rodriguez has ranked among the Angels' top ten minor league performers every year going back to 2005, and in the top five three times. He's the only Halos' farmhand to do that, avoiding major injuries, prolonged slumps, or even bouts of just average performance. That's astounding, and it wouldn't surprise me if the 23.8 "wins above replacement" that he accumulated over that 5 year period surpassed that of every other minor leaguer. I think he's going to find a niche for himself in Tampa and grow into an everyday player for them, most likely at second base.

Again, remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2009, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking.

Ruining the World Series, Just Like A-Rod and Boras: Rays Trade Iwamura

devil_fingers — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 06:48:07 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Tampa Bay Ray' Akinori Iwamura watches his second-inning double off New York Yankees' A.J. Burnett in their baseball game against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in New York, Wednesday, May 6, 2009. He later talked to Alex Rodriguez about the best way to ruin the World Series even when not playing in it (AP Photo/Kathy Willens).

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You know, I kept my mouth shut when analyzing the Freddy Sanchez contract. But with reported trade of the Rays' Akinori Iwamura to the Pirates for Jesse Chavez, I can't keep it in any longer.

Think back a couple of years ago when the game of baseball was the victim of possibly one of the worst breaches of its sacred code since some guy didn't run out a ground ball. You all know what I'm talking about: when Incarnation of Evil Scott Boras and his Willing Servant Alex Rodriguez announced that A-Rod would be opting out of his contract. A-Rod is "finally" hitting in the playoffs, but his horrible legacy lives on. Have teams and players no respect for this, the pure, untainted-by-greed World Series, the holiest part of the baseball calender? Instead of talking about the important stuff like whether or not Cole Hamels has quit on his team, Jose Molina's game-calling skills, Nick Swisher's "slump," trying to figure out if this "Chase Utley" character who just came out of nowhere is any good, and psychological speculation about the Yankees reliving 2004, we're going to have non-stop discussion and dissection of these moves, which is exactly the lesson that A-Rod and Boras wanted to teach to narcissistic, irreverent, selfish jerks like Sanchez, Sabean, Friedman, and especially Iwamura and his agent Alan Nero, who obviously negotiated his contract conditions with the idea of ruining from the World Series.

I guess we'll just have to push through and try to enjoy what's left, in between the constant Aki Updates. I'm so mad, I'm not even going to try and analyze Jesse Chavez. You hear that, Iwamura, you attention-craving jerk? Your strategy worked. Even a bigwig like me is going to give ALL the attention to you.

Akinori "It's All About Aki" Iwamura

#1 / Second Base / Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 5-9

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Feb 09, 1979

Hitting: Iwamura was an above-average hitter in 2007 and 2009 (although he only got in 260 PAs during the latter), with a .338 wOBA (using FanGraph's data) during both, and was below average in 2008, with .323. Adjusting for age and regressing, he we'd estimate his skill to be a .329 wOBA hitter, or almost exactly average in this run environement, so 0 runs above/below average.

Fielding: There's a pretty big discrepancy here between the numbers and the fans when it comes to evaluating Iwamura's defense. In 2007, playing primarily 3B, Iwamura's UZR/150 was -0.2. In 2008 he made the switch to 2B, and had +1.6. This past season, he was almost completely average at 2B, with a -0.2. The Fans had a different opinion. According to my translations, the fans thought his skills for 2B warranted a +10.1 in 2007, +12.6 in 2008, and +3.4 in 2009. Overall, I estimate that is about 2.5 runs above average at 2B.

Putting it all together: Iwamura's had some injury problems and he isn't getting any younger, so we'll put him at 75% playing time. Average offense (+0) + 2.5 Fielding +2.5 Position Adjustment +25 AL Replacement Level = ~30 runs above replacement times 75% playing time = about 2.2 Wins Above Replacement.

Despite revealing himself as an obvious egomaniac and possibly a sociopath, Iwamura is probably an average player at worst, and is getting paid like a part-timer in 2010 ($4.25M). Some might think this trade is pointless at best for the Pirates, although as Dave Cameron notes, there's something to be said for a team like the Pirates just getting a good player at a good price. It's not like Chavez looks like much of a loss at this point. And, (to beat it into the ground) maybe the Pirates can turn Iwamura into Madison Bumgarner at the deadline next season!

As for the Rays, I guess their hand was forced by the contract (that's no excuse, though). While Iwamura was cheap for his expected performance, he wasn't going to start next year given the presence of the far superior (and much cheaper and younger) Ben Zobrist (not to mention guys like Sean Rodriguez and Willie Aybar who will be jostling for paying time). So the money can be better used elsewhere for them.

Plus, I bet Iwamura's a choker in the playoffs, just the player after whom he obviously models himself.

The Last Man Sitting

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:15:31 -0000

One of the more interesting story lines of this offseason, to me at anyway, will be the competition for the last remaining bench spot*.

*This is barring any major trades or signings before opening day

The Rays came into 2009 with a fairly strong bench consisting of Ben Zobrist, Gabe Kapler/Gross, Willy Aybar, and Shawn Riggans. Although he was already getting semi-regular at bats, Ben Zobrist was thrust into the starting lineup when Aki Iwamura went down with a knee injury in late May. That injury forced the Rays to call up players like Reid Brignac and Joe Dillon to warm the now vacant bench spot. Shawn Riggans suffered his usual injury set back which allowed Michel Hernandez a roster spot until the Zaunbie Nation came to Tampa Bay. The bench was obviously stretched out more than the Rays would have liked last season but it did an admirable job. The options for 2010 will offer a slightly different cast of characters.

Fernando Perez:

-Perez has long been one of my favorite Ray players, but that’s been more for his talents off the field than on it. A useful reserve outfielder for most teams, Perez may be forced out of a roster spot with the Rays thanks to a likely Matt Joyce/Ben Zobrist platoon in right field. Perez would be better served playing every day in Triple A and working on the next great American novel instead of wasting away at the end of the Rays bench.

Reid Brignac:

-The probable shortstop of the future, Brignac does have an option left and would no doubt be better off playing full time at Durham than riding the pine in St. Pete. Unless the Rays trade Jason Bartlett I don't see Brignac beginning the year on the Rays bench.

Gabe Kapler:

-Kapler is an interesting candidate. He doesn't yet have a contract for 2010, but the Rays would be in need of a right handed outfield bat coming off the bench. Kapler earned $1m last season and did job very well, putting up an OPS of .931 against left handed pitching. If Kapler is willing to accept another contract of $1m, or maybe a little less, I think the Rays have to seriously consider bringing him back.

Willy Aybar:

Aybar will undoubtably be a member of the Rays' bench in 2010 as the primary backup at 3B/1B. Even though Aybar rated uncharacteristically poor at every defensive position he played in 2009 he isn't a liability with the glove and his bat more than holds its own. The addition of Sean Rodriguez will drastically cut into the amount of games Aybar sees at second base next season. His salary of $1.35m is very reasonable for the production he provides.

Sean Rodriguez:

The main piece in the Scott Kazmir trade, Rodriguez will likely be the platoon partner of Ben Zobrist at second base and is able to backup Jason Bartlett at shortstop. He'll strike out enough to get the local fans to boo him, but his versatility and power bat should be enough to assure himself of a bench spot in 2010.

Matt Joyce:

I see Matt Joyce being a part of what I'm calling the Ben Zobrist Platoon menage a trois. Joyce starts in right field against right handed pitchers while Zobrist starts at 2B. Against southpaws Joyce would sit in favor of the switch hitting Zobrist, while Rodriguez would play second base. Joyce spent most of 2009 in AAA and played well enough to earn a promotion, not to mention the fact that Gabe Gross and Gabe Kapler are not likely to return.

Catcher:

The plan for a starting catcher is still up in the air, so I'm even going to begin to speculate on who the backup will be, but obviously there will be one on the roster.

I'm not sure which direction the team will go, but I'm strongly in favor of the re-signing of Gabe Kapler. They could go with a four or five man bench next season depending on how they decide to structure the bullpen. If they choose a four man bench I think Rodriguez, Aybar, Kapler, and Catcher would be the best fit to begin the season. If they go five then I would lean toward Fernando Perez to fill the last spot, if only for his pinch running abilities. No matter who they choose or how they structure it, the Rays will once again have a cost effective and productive bench in 2010.

The Closing of the 2009 Season

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:31:36 -0000

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The season's over in a few days and there's nothing to really write about -- minus asking where Matt Joyce and Sean Rodriguez are -- so in turn I would like to take this opportunity to thank everyone for making this site what it is. When I started here three years ago I just hoped to receive a comment on most of my posts, now I hope against it. But really, the growth in comment quality and quantity has been impressive and hopefully something we can continue to build on heading forward.

Thanks so very much.

P.S.: We'll have open threads for the playoff games and some review/off-season based content going up, so just because the Rays year reaches the endpoint doesn't mean we're shutting things down.

2009 Angels Position Prospects, Historically Speaking

rghan — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 21:53:57 -0000

How good, historically speaking, were our best prospect performances in 2009? The short answer is, pretty good. According to the stat OPS+, Halos position prospects Carlos Ramirez, Dillon Baird, and Alexia Amarista put up some of the best performances of the decade. Not bad for a system widely criticized as having left its best days behind.

OPS+ adjusts offensive contributions to league and competitive context, so it's really the best stat to use when looking at performances across levels. Simply put, OPS+ is the best shorthand I know of making an apples-to-apples comparison of a player hitting .300 in the Midwest League to a player hitting .300 in the Pacific Coast League.

First, let's take a look at the best numbers. Here's a list of decade-best offensive performances over at least 100 PA's by OPS+. 2009 guys are in italics.

OPS+ PLAYER PA's LEVEL AGE YEAR

201 Carlos Ramirez 190 Adv_Rook 21 2009

193 Roberto Lopez 319 Adv_Rook 22 2008

193 Seth Loman 199 ASL_Rook 21 2007

188 Chris Pettit 266 A-Ball 22 2007

181 Dallas McPherson 302 AA 23 2004

180 Sammy Swenson 267 Adv_Rook 23 2001

177 Dallas McPherson 136 Adv_Rook 20 2001

177 Sergio Contreras 201 Adv_Rook 20 2000

176 Matthew Sweeney 202 ASL_Rook 18 2006

173 Howie Kendrick 337 A-Ball 20 2004

Notice any patterns here? Half of the best OPS+'s were put up by college kids in advanced rookie ball, where significant diversity of age and talent makes it relatively easy for older draftees to stand out. Still, Orem catcher Carlos Ramirez performed better than 85 other college kids with over a hundred rookie league PA's, and that demands recognition. He got on base in exactly half of his PA's. Moreover, if you add his numbers from the Pioneer League playoffs, his season line reads even better: a 219 OPS+ with 10 homeruns across 214 rookie ball plate appearances. He's a guy to watch next year.

But we're interested in guys who put up a larger sample size, so let's look at only the best performances of players who got at least 250 PA's and see if any more 2009 draftees float to the top.

OPS+ PLAYER PA's LEVEL AGE YEAR

193 Roberto Lopez 319 Adv_Rook 22 2008

188 Chris Pettit 266 A-Ball 22 2007

181 Dallas McPherson 302 AA 23 2004

180 Sammy Swenson 267 Adv_Rook 23 2001

173 Howie Kendrick 337 A-Ball 20 2004

173 Chris Pettit 272 Adv_Rook 21 2006

171 Howie Kendrick 312 AAA 22 2006

170 Dillon Baird 250 Adv_Rook 21 2009

167 Jose Fernandez 522 AAA 26 2001

167 Dallas McPherson 339 A+ 22 2003

Again, we see one player from 2009, this time Ramirez' Orem teammate, first baseman Dillon Baird. If you're curious, Randall Grichuk's age 17 season in the ASL ranks 25th on this list. Trout didn't have enough PA's to qualify.

Next, let's acknowledge that it's a far more difficult thing to outperform your peers over a full season, rather than just a half season. Here's a list of the decade's best performances by OPS+ over 500 or more PA's.

OPS+ PLAYER PA's LEVEL AGE YEAR

169 Dallas McPherson 573 AA, AAA 23 2004

167 Jose Fernandez 522 AAA 26 2001

163 Sean Rodriguez 724 AAA 23_24 2008+2009

158 Chris Pettit 573 A, A+ 22 2007

156 Brandon Wood 595 A+ 20 2005

153 Mike Campo 569 A+ 25 2002

144 Alexia Amarista 557 A 20 2009

143 Mike O'Keefe 537 AA 24 2002

142 Mike Napoli 584 A+ 22 2004

141 Robb Quinlan 588 AAA 25 2002

Cedar Rapids' second baseman Alexia Amarista is the next '09 name to pop up, which is something of a shock due to his lack of power relative to the other guys on the list. He had a very, very good season in a league that is very, very hard on hitters. I also included split seasons in this list, giving Dallas McPherson credit for his historic 2004 campaign in AA and AAA, and Chris Pettit for his very good season in A and High A. For Sean Rodriguez, I collapsed his '08 and '09 AAA seasons into a single line - he deserves to be remembered for his fine work there.

Sure, 2009 was no banner year for the Halos system, especially at the higher levels, but it did see some very good performances by players new to the organization. Those performances rank right up there with the best of a talent- rich decade, so I think it's fair to say that the pipeline is not running dry.

Akinori Iwamura and Free Agency

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 10:00:34 -0000

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The reign of Akinori Iwamura in Tampa Bay has been an interesting one. The second - and most recent - player the Rays went on the Japanese market to acquire, following failure of the utmost degree with the immortal Shinji Mori. Winner of multiple gold gloves at third, there was talk of Iwamura playing other positions down the road, especially with that Evan Longoria guy making a strong debut in the minors. His skill set included quickness, left-handed batting, and a strong willingness to force walks.

He arrived from a land famous for its phallus and showcased flash. Spiked hair, jewelry, sunglasses with headphones built in, alligator skinned gloves, and designer bats with golden rings painted on. He was, to quote something I wrote way back when, more Americanized upon arrival than country mates Hideki Matsui and Ichiro. Despite all of that Iwamura has never been much of a distraction. Well, usually.

His spring debut went about as swimmingly as the Titanic's maiden voyage, yet when the games actually counted Iwamura started his American career by reaching base in twelve consecutive games. Replacing B.J. Upton and Ty Wigginton at third base, Iwamura flashed the agility of a cat. His range and arm were nothing fantastic - as we've seen - but Iwamura possesses footwork beyond expression. Few players can duplicate Iwamura's ability to dive, leap to his feet, and record an out as fluently. Naturally this lead to some inflation on his defensive abilities, but hey, he was the best defender the Rays featured at the position in a while.

Iwamura made his first appearance at second base during the final game of 2007 and would move into the spot full-time entering 2008. He would bat leadoff for most of the season but miss some time with an eye injury. The incumbent starter in 2009 Iwamura would suffer a knee injury on a collision and returned late in the year.

He has a club option for next year that will fetch him a quarter of a million either way with the possibility of an additional four million if exercised. Few circumstances exist in which Iwamura wouldn't be worth 4.25 million next year. The issue is the Rays depth at the middle infield positions. You have to figure Ben Zobrist starts at second base, Willy Aybar is cheaper than Iwamura, and there's Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez to fit into the puzzle as well. Maybe Iwamura could play some corner outfield in the same manner as Zobrist, but that would mean taking a roster spot from either Rodriguez or a true reserve outfielder.

This leaves the Rays with a situation in which they must either decline Iwamura's option and therefore allowing him to find a gig on his own without compensation, or exercise the option and look for a suitor via trade. In a vacuum this is easy. Iwamura is a predictable performer with a desirable skill set and salary. There's a list of pros and cons to simply keeping him around. Maybe Zobrist flat lines, maybe Rodriguez strikes out too much, maybe Aybar decides he would rather learn Sanskrit than play baseball next year, and so on.

At the same time, Iwamura is coming off a rather serious injury and is on the wrong side of 30. His salary looms in a reserve role and the chances that he is a win better than Rodriguez, Aybar, etc., in limited action is doubtful at best. Plus the opportunity cost must be considered. This isn't simply: Iwamura or Rodriguez? This is Iwamura or Rodriguez and four million dollars to spend on the free agent market - which, in theory and usually in practice, should equate to roughly an additional win added.

Everything seems to produce a sum in which Iwamura will be playing baseball elsewhere than St. Petersburg next season. If that come to fruition, it'll be hard to find reasons to describe his tenure as anything but successful.