SB Nation - Chris Shelton

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

A Guide To Some Relevant Minor League Free Agents

Sam Page — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

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In 2009, the Mets were bereft of minor league depth. It was painfully obvious looking at Buffalo's performance and it became a major issue when injuries struck. Despite what some claim, however, developing prospects is not the only way to build good farm systems. Often those fringe players that never quite breakthrough to the show are the most integral parts of a successful minor league team. So going off this list, here's some MiFA of interest:

RHP Phil Humber: I actually think Humber is a pretty bad pitcher, but need to mention him before everyone gets nostalgic. Humber was, of course, the former Mets top prospect out of Rice that was supposed to join Mike Pelfrey at the top of the Mets rotation eventually--that was, before he had Tommy John Surgery. Somehow included in the Johan Santana deal, Humber pitched really poorly for the Twins in AAA. The only real reason to bring him back would be a show of goodwill and sympathy from the Mets. Don't hold out hope for that lost potential.

IF/OF Wilson Betemit: The top-prospect-turned-super-sub Betemit probably has his best days behind him, even at age 28. He comes from the Mark DeRosa mold in that he has experience at virtually every position, but is good at none of them. And while he hasn't hit very well of late, his interesting blend of power and plate discipline and major-league track record could make him worth a flier at AAA. Personally, I might opt for better infield defense behind the Mets young developing pitchers, but few others on that list can claim being an average major league hitter over their career.

RHP Bryan Bullington: One of many infamous first round busts in the Pirate's recent draft history, this first-overall pick has some upside as a reliever. In 38 relief innings for Las Vegas last season, Bullington had a 43:7 K:BB ratio in 38.1 innings pitched. He also can be as a serviceable AAA starter, but any chance of him making the bigs is as a part of the bullpen. A good guy to have around.

LHP Brian Burres: A long-time Baltimore farm hand, Burres has the stuff to be a mid-rotation AAA guy and a #7 or 8 on an organizational depth chart. Sub-par control and a horrible 2008 with the Orioles will likely prevent him from ever earning another extended stay in the majors.

RHP R.A. Dickey:

Pros:

Went to my high school
throws the knuckleball
the only article I ever wrote for my high school newspaper was about him

Cons:

not as good as Tim Wakefield

Dickey is the rare pitcher who is seemingly improving with age. He started using the knuckleball full-time in 2007, a season in which he was the Pacific Coast League MVP. Last year he had modest success as a reliever with the Twins. Knuckleball pitchers are great because they can pitch a million innings without getting tired and because they throw the knuckleball.

3B/OF Joe Dillon: At age 33, Joe's showing some signs of decline, but with the way he's been jerked around between the majors and minors recently, I wonder whether it's genuine slowing down or just not getting settled in one place. He is one of those AAAA sluggers that makes minor league baseball fun to watch--three times in his minor league career he's had a 1000+ OPS. He's a pretty decent fielding thirdbaseman to boot. This year he was the "last man" on the Rays bench, and he could easily reprise that role with the Mets, or be big boost to the Bisons.

RHP Geoff Geary: Geary is a control-specialist reliever who has had some major league PT recently with the Astros and Phillies. He's not someone I want in the Mets bullpen, but Buffalo could use him.

OF Mitch Jones: .354, .320. Those two numbers are Mitch Jones' Isolated Power in the past two seasons. Sure, he played in a friendly home ballpark in Albuquerque, but a .651 SLG% travels. You could make an argument that Jones is better suited for a starting job on the Mets than Daniel Murphy or Jeff Francoeur.

LHP Royce Ring: Ya'll know Royce. Lefty with the funky motion. I'd take him back on a minor league deal, considering the state of the Mets' bullpen.

LHP Jon Switzer: He pitched pretty well for Buffalo out of the bullpen this year (3.85 tRA). He would be a solid re-sign.

1B Chris Shelton: Like a right-handed Chris Carter, Chris Shelton is another AAAA slugger the Bison's stagnant offense could certainly use. Last year with Tacoma, he OPSed .905 at age 29. With Chris Carter already here, however, he may be "blocked." And as you've probably suspected, I'd gladly platoon him with Murphy, Carter, or Ike Davis, if given the chance.

LHP R.J. Swindle: Of all the pitchers I've talked about so far, Swindle is easily the most desirable. He'll be just 26 next season and has fantastic minor league peripherals 9.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9. He's got forgettable stuff: a low 80s fastball and curveball that is basically an eephus, but he's always put up great numbers and killed lefties. Chad Bradford II?

RHP Joe Nelson: The Rays signed Joe for $1MM after a fantastic '08 with the Marlins. He proved a bad investment with horrible command, but might be served well by a return to the NL East. The Mets were reportedly interested in him as a Major League piece last year, and at the very least would be a great AAA option.

C Guillermo Quiroz: A former top-50 prospect, Quiroz has evolved into a minor league catcher with a sterling defensive reputation, good pop, and poor on-base skills. Basically, he's Omir Santos. I am not even sure Omir Santos is even better than him. In fact, Omir Santos was the Orioles' AAA catcher when Quiroz was their Major League backup. That says more about how poor and ill-equipped for a starting gig Santos is, than how good Quiroz is. But if you're going to entrust Omir Santos with a roster spot, might as well keep his clone as a backup in AAA.

Jeff Salazar, Bryan Bullington Become Free Agents

Charlie — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 02:16:22 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

8 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Jeff Salazar, right, steals second before the tag of Cincinnati Reds' shortstop Adam Rosales in the bottom of the ninth inning of the spring training baseball game in Bradenton, Fla., Monday, March 30, 2009. Salazar went on to score the game winning run on a hit bit Jason Jaramillo in the Pirates 3-2 win. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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Since we're at the point in the year where there's nothing to care about except little things, here's some news: a bunch of guys just became minor league free agents. The only Pirate on the list is Jeff Salazar, who went 1-for-23 for the Bucs this year. Salazar probably needed to hit better this season to have much of a shot at a real major-league career, which is too bad; he has an .826 career minor league OPS (albeit in some pretty hospitable hitting environments, like Tucson and Colorado Springs), and it's a shame he never got more of a shot. Most guys who stick as fourth outfielders begin their careers as starters, like Brandon Moss this year; guys like Salazar who have the skillset but are never lucky enough to be confused for starters usually don't make it.

Also on the list of minor league free agents are former Pirate #1-overall picks Kris Benson and Bryan Bullington. Bullington actually pitched very well for the Jays' Class AAA affiliate in Las Vegas, but he didn't make an appearance there after June. The list also includes Chris Duffy, Chris Shelton, and Craig Stansberry.

Other vaguely interesting names on the list: Phil Humber (third overall pick by the Mets in 2004, acquired by Twins in the Johan Santana trade, stalled in the high minors), IF Wilson Betemit (former top Braves prospect, still not that old, bad season in the White Sox organization but versatile and potentially still useful), RP Javier Lopez (again, a terrible season, but he's one year removed from being one of the majors' more effective relievers), RP Greg Aquino (consistently good minor league numbers; certainly a better option than the Denny Bautistas of the world), RP Vinnie Chulk (ditto), RP Jon Switzer (same), RP Joe Nelson (actually a totally decent MLB pitcher for the Rays last year, and a terrific one for the Marlins in 2008), and lefty SP Travis Blackley (former top Mariners prospect finally seems to be pitching with better control in his late 20s and still hasn't been used exclusively as a reliever, where he might find his niche).

Nothing big here, but I'd be mildly psyched to see the Bucs sign Blackley, in particular.

Thanks to WTM.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 14:31:31 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

Trevor Hoffman still doesn't untuck, but it's nice to see him celebrating a Brewer victory anyway.

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Some things to read while getting your MST3K fix.

Today's biggest news is, without question, the health of Corey Hart. After complaining of abdominal pain during Saturday's game and again on Sunday, Hart left the clubhouse before yesterday's game and ended up having an appendectomy in San Diego last night. Hart will be placed on the DL and is expected to miss a minimum of 2-3 weeks. Michael Street of Baseball Digest Daily wonders if losing him might be the last straw for the Crew.

Hart will be replaced on the roster by Bill Hall, who returns to the team after just a few days in AAA. Hall was 4-for-8 in AAA entering play yesterday, but went 0-for-6 with a walk and three strikeouts in a doubleheader last night. Hall and Frank Catalanotto are expected to platoon in right field while Hart is out.

At least one Brewer starting pitcher on the DL is getting closer to returning: Dave Bush threw 25 pitches in a bullpen session yesterday, and could head out on a rehab assignment as soon as the end of this week. Jeff Suppan, meanwhile, is complaining of "fatigue" in his strained oblique muscle when he throws. He's not expected to miss much more than 15 days, at any rate.

With Bush and Suppan still out, the Brewers made one minor move at the trading deadline, picking up Claudio Vargas from the Dodgers in exchange for Vinny Rottino. There's plenty of reaction from all over the web on that move:

Gordon Edes of Yahoo listed the Brewers as a trade deadline loser.
Right Field Bleachers notcied Tim Kurkijian's disappointment with the Brewers as well.
John Sickels of Minor League Ball says Vargas has more value than Rottino.
Rottino and the Brewers parted with no hard feelings. Rottino will be assigned to the Dodgers' AA team.
Tim Dillard was returned to AAA to make room for Vargas on the roster.
Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff says that, if Doug Melvin was going to acquire a stopgap fifth starter, he at least should have acquired one he hasn't had before.

Here's the first few paragraphs of Anthony Witrado's story on Vargas from this weekend:

The last time Claudio Vargas was in a Milwaukee Brewers clubhouse, he was packing his belongings and trying to figure out what had just happened to him.

That was during spring training last year right after Vargas, who wasn't pitching poorly, was released by the club because, get this, they had an abundance of starting pitching.

How times have changed.

Actually, after two slow-moving appearances where Vargas allowed four baserunners and two earned runs in 1.1 innings of work, maybe times haven't changed that much at all. It could always be worse, though: The Brewers could sign Sidney Ponson, who was recently designated for assignment by the Royals and surfaced in Speculationville.

The Brewers managed to win just one of three games over the weekend in San Diego, and are digging themselves a pretty deep hole in the NL Central:

Cool Standings gives the Brewers a 7.6% shot at making the playoffs.
Adam McCalvy noted that the Cardinals are on pace for 88 wins, and the Brewers would have to go 37-21 (36-21 following yesterday's win) down the stretch to reach that mark.
Vegas is giving the Brewers 50-1 odds of winning the World Series.

With that said, Tyler Maas has ten reasons to keep watching the Brewers down the stretch.

As the Brewers pitching continues to struggle, the calls continue to come for Bill Castro's head, but Drew Olson of OnMilwaukee.com says firing Castro would be the wrong decision.

Prince Fielder made some very impressive defensive plays over the weekend, but still came in 15th of 16 NL first basemen in Baseball Digest Daily's defensive rankings. The good news for the Brewers: Craig Counsell finished first among second basemen.

In the minors:

Alcides Escobar has missed a few games recently to attend to a family matter. I've heard his wife is giving birth to a child, but don't have a source to confirm it. He's expected to rejoin the Sounds tomorrow.
Escobar ranked eleventh on Jonathan Mayo's list of baseball's top 50 prospects. (h/t Larry Stone)
Mat Gamel ranked 13th and Alcides Escobar 24th in Project Prospect's Top 25.

With Friday's trade deadline, it's been a busy weekend on the transaction wire:

Blue Jays: Placed reliever Scott Downs on the DL with an injury to his left big toe.
Braves: Acquired Adam LaRoche from the Red Sox for Casey Kotchman.
Giants: Placed outfielder Andres Torres on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Indians: Designated relievers Winston Abreu and Mike Gosling for assignment.
Mariners: Designated first baseman Chris Shelton for assignment.
Marlins: Acquired Nick Johnson from the Nationals for a minor league pitcher and placed Burke Badenhop on the DL with a sore neck.
Mets: Designated Robinson Cancel for assignment.
Orioles: Placed pitcher Brad Bergesen on the DL with a bruised shin.
Padres: Released Mark Prior.
Rangers: Placed Ian Kinsler on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Rays: Signed reliever Jeff Bennett and added him to their 25-man roster.
Red Sox: Acquired Victor Martinez from the Indians for Justin Masterson and two minor league pitchers.
Reds: Acquired Scott Rolen from the Blue Jays for three minor leaguers and traded Jerry Hairston to the Yankees for a minor league catcher.
Rockies: Acquired Joe Beimel from the Nationals for two minor leaguers and placed reliever Juan Rincon on the DL with elbow stiffness.
Tigers: Acquired Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners for Luke French and a minor league pitcher.
Twins: Acquired Orlando Cabrera from the A's for a minor league shortstop.
White Sox: Acquired Jake Peavy from the Padres for Clayton Richard and three minor league pitchers.

Some parents pick their children's names out of baby books or name them after relatives. Not everyone does it that way, though: Here's the story of how the parents of Astros rookie Bud Norris got his name off a beer can.

On this day in 1997, Jeromy Burnitz hit a pinch hit home run for the second straight day. The Brewers lost both games to the Mariners.

Happy birthday today to Justin Lehr, who pitched in 39 games for the Brewers in 2005 and 2006 and turns 32 today.

Drink up.

An Assortment Of Thoughts

Jeff — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 07:58:26 -0000

Note: if you missed it, check out Matthew's July pitcher report card below.

When the Ms. is gone, I need things to do, and tonight my thing to do is write.

The Mariners are approaching a dicey situation, where Felix Hernandez only has two remaining years of team control after this one and will be in line for a big pay raise in the winter. It's a situation that could've been avoided had the team earlier signed him to an extension, but as much as Bavasi liked to say "it takes two to tango" (implying that he was open to an extension but Felix was not), the blame for this shouldn't fall on Felix's camp. Felix has always been open to signing an extension with the Mariners. Always. And Bavasi approached him and his agent on a handful of occasions. Bavasi, however, lowballed him with offers to buy out his arbitration years and get options for his first few years of free agency. It would be one thing if Felix turned down reasonable contracts, but Bavasi got frustrated because Felix wouldn't sign for pennies on the dollar. Don't get mad at Felix. Every player deserves the right to a fair contract. It's Bavasi's fault our ace never got one.

Mark Lowe through June 25th: 61% strikes, 8% swinging strikes, 1.7 K/BB
Mark Lowe since June 28th: 63% strikes, 12% swinging strikes, 4.0 K/BB

I've said a lot of negative things about Mark Lowe this year, mostly lamenting the fact that his results weren't matching his excellent stuff, but lately he's picked it up a notch and turned himself into a reliable late-inning arm. While he's not getting hitters to chase a lot of balls, and it's only a sample size of 15.2 innings, this is an encouraging bit of progress.

Jose Lopez is up to a .767 OPS with a .277 BABIP. He hits the worst home runs on the team, but homers are homers, and he's starting to look like a little bit of a power hitter. For as down as some people were on Lopez last winter, now I'm seeing him as a bargain. A bargain who could top out at any moment, but a bargain nonetheless.

A few times I've described Jack Hannahan as a hitter whose overall value is less than the sum of his parts. When you watch him hit, he looks really good, and it's only when you see his numbers that you realize how much of a problem he really is. That said, he's at .264/.344/.415 since coming over from Oakland, and if I didn't know any better I'd almost suggest that he's halfway decent. In a way it's almost too bad that Beltre's going to be back so soon, because I feel like, who knows, maybe when a hitter has the fundamentals down like Hannahan seems to, things can just click overnight.

A little while ago I decided to run through what PITCHf/x information we have on Luke French's five big league starts. Here's what I came up with after a little tinkering:

Pitch %Thrown %Strike %SwS

Fastball 60.6 63.0 3.8

Slider 25.6 74.1 28.6

Change 13.7 50.0 8.3

Now, you should know that the sample size on this stuff is pretty small. Only a total of 437 pitches in there. But what we can tell is that French's big money pitch is his slider, and his fastball is pretty bad. We'll see on the change. I'm not comfortable jumping to conclusions based on an n of 60, and given that French posted a 4.2 K/BB against AAA righties earlier this year, I imagine his change is better than these numbers make it look. But who knows.

It's both interesting and encouraging to see French having such good results on his slider early on, because that's the pitch that's made all the difference between the Luke French of before and the Luke French of 2009. French didn't really throw a slider for a while. He only started throwing it in late 2008, and previously his K/9 in the minors had stabilized around the low- to mid-5's. He was even eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this past offseason and didn't get selected. By throwing the slider and becoming comfortable with it, though, French was able to push his K/9 in AAA up to 7.9 before getting promoted. So while his performance this year looks anomalous, there's a reason for it. French picked up a new pitch, and it turned him into a legitimate pitcher.

I'm looking forward to seeing him. My expectations aren't high, and he has a really low ceiling, but I think he can succeed here, and I think he can succeed here for a long time.

I mentioned this in the game thread yesterday, but Jack Wilson has the same problem as me, where the goatee part of his beard is visibly thicker than the rest. It sounds stupid but once you notice it the first time it's all you can see in the mirror. It's annoying. We just want to be even. Now my beard's pretty thick, and I think he's got it a little worse, but it's more than a little disconcerting when you realize that part of your face looks like part of Jack Wilson's.

I'm going to take off my sabermetric hat for a minute and put it down on the desk. Today we saw Chris Shelton get DFA'd to make roster room for Luke French while Mike Sweeney remained on the team. Shelton, of course, is the better hitter of the two. I don't think there's really any question. Sweeney's got a .287 wOBA on the year and he doesn't have much in the way of home run power, while Shelton's come in at .391 in Tacoma with a dozen dingers. When you have a roster spot dedicated to a straight-up right-handed bat, you'd think the right move would be to give that spot to the best option available.

However, as far as this move is concerned, I'm on the team's side, and for three reasons:

(1) In terms of competing for the playoffs, the season is over
(2) Shelton is 29 years old and not a prospect
(3) Sweeney is rather obviously one of, if not the most well-liked player on the team

Because of point #1, it doesn't really matter who's better, because wins now are less important than they would've been two or three months ago. And because of point #2, there's no reason to treat Shelton like some sort of great unknown or valuable youngster with a bright future with the team. He's a known entity and he's not about to get any better.

So we're left with point #3. I know in the past I've come down hard on people who've made a big deal out of clubhouse chemistry, but this is a different and specific situation. Keep Shelton and DFA Sweeney and there's no real benefit. You might score an extra two or three runs over the rest of the year, but that's it, and those runs aren't going to get you much. Maybe a meaningless win. By DFA'ing Sweeney, though, you're left having to explain to the team why you just got rid of everyone's best friend. Sweeney occupies a central role in the Mariner clubhouse. I think that much is pretty clear. And I guarantee you - I guarantee you - that if the team cut Sweeney, the players wouldn't understand. They wouldn't understand, and they'd be upset.

My position on clubhouse chemistry is the same as that of a bunch of other people - given two players, with all other things being equal, you pick the guy who's more likable. Because, while we can't evaluate the effect of chemistry, there's no reason to go against it if you don't have to. Here, there's no reason to go against it. Here, all other things are pretty much equal. Because the tangible production we get out of this particular roster spot no longer means anything. I don't want to see Mike Sweeney in a Mariner uniform in 2010 - and the same goes for Junior - but for these final two months of 2009, I have absolutely no problem with keeping them around. They're going to do more good than harm.

Thoughts On A Picture

Jeff — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 23:05:08 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

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Much like Bigfoot, Chris Shelton is both easily identifiable and best viewed from a distance.

Chris Shelton was supposed to be in focus, but the camera resisted.

This is the picture Chris Shelton's mom has framed on the mantle.

Chris Shelton's better side is neither his left nor his right, but twenty paces.

When he isn't wearing a hat, Chris Shelton looks like someone put furry red handcuffs around a fish.

NOW YOU SEE, CARLOS. NOW YOU SEE WHAT IT'S LIKE

According to the penal definition, whereby a criminal becomes remorseful over learning that his actions had real consequences on real people, Carlos Silva has been rehabilitated.

Franklin Gutierrez has a look of smug but indifferent resignation, like he's sitting there thinking "well whatever I did my part." Which is probably true. Life's hard when you're that much better than pretty much everyone around you. Just ask Adrian Gonzalez, or Babe.

Notice that Silva has about six feet of empty bench space on either side of him.

Pregame Notes

Jeff — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 21:23:09 -0000

A few things going on:

Via Larry Stone, we learn that Mike Sweeney's coming back and Josh Wilson's going away. Wilson went 0-2 with two runs scored during the Mariners' month-long experiment with a 24-man roster, but if Sweeney's to be believed, Wilson brought a lot of heart and energy to this team, so his departure is probably going to cripple our season from the inside. You'd think the front office would be wary of such things, but here we are. This is good news for Chris Shelton, who should now be able to get some much-needed extra beauty sleep every morning without anyone taking notice.

Shannon Drayer's Twitter tells us that Kenji Johjima asked Rick Adair about the Tiger hitters. This is presumably only notable because it's something Kenji doesn't ordinarily do, and that's only notable because holy crap

Brandon Morrow had an ugly start with Tacoma the other day, debuting and then ditching a little mechanical change. Having strong opinions about hand position must be a pre-req for Mariner pitching coach candidates. Salk's right that there are two ways to look at this - either it's bad, because Morrow swiftly went back to his comfort zone when faced with trouble, or it's good, because it was a trial that he never would've attempted with Seattle. Either way, though, it's clear that there's still lots and lots of work to do before this guy is polished as a starter. Have I mentioned how glad I am that RRS is back? For three months he was practically a forgotten man, but now he ought to be our #4.

Also from Salk - Jeff Clement has been cleared to resume catching, which should give us a solid week or two before he has to stop catching.

Meaningless Roster Move

Matthew — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 21:13:10 -0000

Here is a blue and underlined piece of text.

Mike Sweeney is activated off the disabled list and Josh Wilson was DFA'd. If I did not make this post, I doubt anyone would have noticed for weeks. That is the good news. That bad news is that it now seems that Chris Shelton will slide into the Josh Wilson, never get used ever role. Chris Shelton is a far more intriguing DH bat than Mike Sweeney.

Please use Chris Shelton, Wak.

Here Comes Chris Shelton

Jeff — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 05:55:27 -0000

Divish is on it:

UPDATE: Expect to see Shelton in Seattle tomorrow. No word on who will be sent down.

With the M's going to a four-man rotation for the next little while, this move was hardly unexpected. Shelton brings them another bat on the bench to replace the ailing Mike Sweeney, and Jason Vargas (who seems to be the consensus pick for demotion) will be able to keep fresh as a starter in Tacoma. What'll be interesting to see is what happens with Shelton once Sweeney's eligible to come back. Ordinarily you'd re-instate the guy who's been here all season, but given that Sweeney's probably made a greater contribution off the field than on it, I don't think anyone would be surprised if the M's extended his vacation. A guy like Sweeney is nearly impossible to DFA, but you also don't want to see much more of his .292 wOBA in the lineup, so being able to keep him around the team but out of the batter's box seems like it would be an ideal scenario.

Shelton, by the way, has hit .319/.385/.522 with Tacoma, with twelve home runs and the sort of defense that is most politely described by using zero adjectives. He's here to hit, and if he hits, he'll probably be here a while.

Options

Jeff — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 22:27:09 -0000

Don't want to give up on the season? That's understandable. The M's are only six back of a very vulnerable Rangers team in the first week of June, and PECOTA gives them a 15% chance of making the playoffs. Competing in 2009 is far from a lost cause, and quitting now would only send a bitter message to both a clubhouse and a fanbase anxious to make a run.

Don't want to do anything that improves the team a little now while jeopardizing a part of the future? Also understandable. Just because the M's have a prayer doesn't in any way mean they're not a longshot, and you never want to sacrifice something down the road for a chance to chase rainbows. Since taking over control, the front office has espoused a big-picture approach to team-building, and you don't want to try too hard to turn a season into something it was never intended to be.

This can be a difficult situation to navigate. The M's, as currently built, clearly need to address some weaknesses if they want to hang in the race, but addressing weaknesses frequently requires one to sacrifice resources that could help down the road. Fortunately, in our case, there are options whereby the M's can get better now without doing anything to harm the next several years. Some of these options are shown below.

1) Cut Mike Sweeney and call up Chris Shelton. With Sweeney having a wOBA of .282 over 92 plate appearances and Shelton standing at .395 in Tacoma, the Mariners have the opportunity to reverse the decision they made back in Spring. It was assumed before that the M's chose the way they did because when faced with a ~tie in offense they erred on the side of likeability, but with Sweeney not producing, there's no longer much reason to believe the two are offensive approximates of one another. Shelton looks like the superior hitter, and that's all he'd need to be were he to take Sweeney's place. It might come as a bummer in the clubhouse, but nothing raises morale quite like better play on the field.

2) Unload Endy Chavez and hand Michael Saunders the keys to left field. I like Endy. He's been exactly what we thought he'd be, and believe it or not, he's actually provided the fourth-best wOBA on the team while playing solid defense in left. He's an excellent role player who isn't too terribly miscast as a regular on an otherwise solid team. But this whole Endy/Wlad platoon thing hasn't exactly lit up the scoreboard, and with Saunders tearing it up in AAA, the team may wish to make a change. In that event, Endy would become expendable with another lefty taking over. If you let Saunders start, keep Wlad around as the backup OF, and trade Endy to a contender, everyone comes away happy, and Safeco gets to set its sights on a guy who should be an outfield regular for the next several years. Saunders might not hit immediately, but given the .663 OPS the M's have gotten out of left field so far, I don't know if anyone would notice.

3) Unload Jose Lopez and plug in Mike Fontenot. Dave's already written this one up, so there's not much left for me to say, but landing the left-handed Fontenot and slotting him in at second would represent an improvement across the board, from defense to discipline to batting order handedness. While the deal may not be available as a simple one-for-one, it's something the M's could and should work to make happen, because though Fontenot's no star, he's better than Lopez and under control through 2013.

4) Unload Jose Lopez and plug in Kelly Johnson. This one's similar to the whole Fontenot thing. For whatever reason, the Braves seem to have soured a bit on Johnson, and he's definitely available. And as a young, productive left-handed 2B under control through 2011, he's the kind of player the Mariners badly need. Once again, the Braves may not be willing to go straight up, but it wouldn't take a whole lot on top of Lopez to make it happen - perhaps even just Endy Chavez - and it would bring the M's a valuable player. Johnson's no whiz in the field, but as a guy who can walk and take the ball out to right field, he'd be a great fit.

5) Play Ronny Cedeno at shortstop more. I don't think this one needs much explaining.

So there are a few options. Unfortunately the whole Griffey handicap prevents us from doing too much at DH, but then I'm not so sure that Clement or Carp would out-produce him anyway, so for the time being it's not that big of an issue. The other things, though - those are ways that the Mariners could make themselves better now without doing anything to damage the long-term picture. And to me, that makes them really appealing. No, I don't want to give up on 2009. No, I don't want to sacrifice future value to get better now. Luckily, it's not one or the other.

Pitch	%Thrown	%Strike	%SwS
Fastball	60.6	63.0	3.8
Slider	25.6	74.1	28.6
Change	13.7	50.0	8.3