SB Nation - Gabe Kapler

Gabe Kapler's Deal Versus His Peers: Mark Kotsay Edition

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:41:01 -0000

Trying out a regular feature of sorts here. Basically, anytime a role-playing corner outfielder with a major league track record is signed, we'll compare the contract to Gabe Kapler's one-year $1.05M deal. By the time the off-season gets rolling this will probably be forgotten, but for today at least, it is well and alive.

The White Sox re-signed Mark Kotsay today for one-year and $1.5M, or a difference in salary of $450K. Kotsay is left-handed and will soon turn 34-years-old (like Kapler) but over the past three seasons has combined to hit .260/.315/.372 in 868 plate appearances. Defensively he plays a fine first base, asking anything else of him is asking for too much. He's a platoon hitter at this point, as you can see below, and he's not too poor against righties, however insert a lefty and Kotsay is an automatic out.

via www.fangraphs.com

Compare this to Kapler, who's hit .268/.336/.443 over his last three seasons (630 PA) and plays above average defense in the corners. Kapler hits the opposite hand better than Kotsay and is even superior against the same hand - Kotsay's death bed scene is going to involve cursing those of the unnatural dexterity -- despite a rough 2009. He's a superior player by every means and for whatever reason Kotsay is making almost half of a million more than him.

Kapler wins this round.

Thoughts on Derek Shelton, Carl Crawford's Bunting, and Chemistry Players

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:05:37 -0000

A quick smorgasbord here on two thoughts I have in my mind but are undeserving of their own full-fledged post.

All bunts are not created equal

Derek Shelton's hiring lead to a furry of tendency checking and question asking. Did his teams bunt more? Did they walk more? Did they hit more pop flies? Wait, how much say did Eric Wedge give Shelton on bunting patterns? And so on and so forth. One player who increased his bunt output was Grady Sizemore. Prior to Shelton taking over, Sizemore attempted 13 bunts in a little over 1,500 plate appearances. Sizemore laid down 11 bunts in Shelton's first full year, seven in his second, and nine this year. Maybe that's a complete and utter coincidence, or maybe Shelton helped Sizemore hone his small ball skills.

Bunting is considered a form of witchcraft by some, and in certain cases it absolutely is a horrible idea, however, as the brilliant Mitchel Lichtman surmised (and went in far too much depth) here, bunting has to be used occasionally, if only to keep the defense off guard. The Rays held few qualms about having B.J. Upton, Jason Bartlett, or even Fernando Perez bunt for hits -- heck, even Carlos Pena had five bunt hits this year - but the guy you would really expect to have a knack for bunting went hitless on five bunt attempts.

That man is Carl Crawford. He's left-handed, fast, and someone who could use the occasional freebie. Defenses never play Crawford for a bunt in part because he's horrible at it. Really, really poor. Even if Crawford attempts to bunt for a hit, he usually bunts it right back to the pitcher. His skill set seems similar enough to Sizemore's that if Shelton is the one responsible for Sizemore, he may be able to help Crawford out too.

Now the idea of Crawford bunting is nothing new. Dewayne Staats usually harps on the point at least nineteen times in any given season. I always flinch when he (or anyone else) talks about how Crawford could add 20-25 hits to his seasonal total if he just dragged the bunt more often. For one, the leader in bunt hits this season only had 19 (Erick Aybar) and for two, once Crawford shows he can do it on a routine basis defenses will begin playing him for a bunt. Hence, making a bunt the less likely to succeed call - although at that point Crawford still will have to bluff the bunt in order to keep the defense honest.

Here's where it gets interesting though, Crawford has 21 career bunt hits and 80 attempts. The majority of those came before Joe Maddon arrived. In 2006 he attempted 18 bunts and only reached on three. One out of every six is a ridiculously poor ratio. Crawford is expected to get on base at about a 35% clip, if he's going to bunt that many times then ideally his success rate would be near (or hopefully) above that rate. Otherwise the only positive affect is putting the play in the defense's mind.

Rather than aiming for 20 bunt hits, I'm hoping for a success rate of more than 35% on the bunts Crawford does put down.

Chemistry is quantifiable

Quite a few have said the Rays don't care about chemistry. They say the team didn't feel the same and that was because it didn't have enough glue guys. Now, I question what Gabe Kapler is, if not a glue guy¹, and I also question whether these people realize that there are zero teams in the league that have a 100% retention rate on their 25 man rosters from one year to the next, but that's for another time.

How do you quantify chemistry? By looking at his other skills. If the player has something he does well - hitting, fielding, pitching, whatever - then he is not a vital solution in the chemistry set. Further, his actual personality means little. There's not telling whether a homogenous or heterogeneous mixture of personalities makes for the best clubhouse and it matters little anyways.

There are reasons as to why it's always the guys who suck that get the chemistry label. 1. As mentioned, these players are poor. They cannot afford to be jackasses otherwise their job cease to be. Superstars and good players can have an attitude without much issue. 2. There may or may not be a pre-existing name for this condition, but for now I'll call it Survivor Inference. There's nothing quantifiable about this player, however onlookers feel there has to be some reason that keeps teams giving him jobs. It doesn't show up in the numbers, ergo, he must bring good vibes. Or his wife supplies the daycare with fresh pudding pops ... or something.

There are exceptions of course. Nick Swisher doesn't suck and he's hailed as a clubhouse guy. If the Yankees offered the Rays Swisher for Pat Burrell I would fully expect the Rays to take the deal, however it has more to do with the actual skills than Swisher's fun-loving attitude.

If you want someone truly high on chemistry then don't throw the numbers out of the door, just look at the bottom of the lists.

---

¹If the Rays repeat in 2009 with Kapler around, how many articles would've been inked about how Kapler's former managerial experience was an irreplaceable quality on the field and in the clubhouse? Setting the over/under at 5.5.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 14:22:47 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Jarrod Washburn: 2010 Brewer?

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Some things to read while testing the healing powers of bacon.

Jon Heyman is the latest to bring up the possibility that Jarrod Washburn could become a 2010 Brewer (as noted in Rumorville). Al says "he's been solid for far too many seasons to pretend he's not a good pitcher." With that said, he's also 35 years old and coming off surgery.

I'm having a hard time getting off the fence on this possibility. Obviously, Washburn's age and injury status would create the possibility that signing him could turn into a major mistake. With that said, his ERA in Seattle was never over 4.69, and when you adjust that for the NL he could very well be expected to post something in the 4.20-4.40 range next season. Giving him anything more than a two year deal would be a mistake, but to me he's worth considering in the short term.

Meanwhile, Jorge Says No! is still listing the Brewers as one of six teams that could trade for Gary Matthews Jr., but only if the Angels eat most of his salary. Every GM starts the offseason looking for players who are cheap and good: Trading for GMJ with the intent of playing him in center field would mean sacrificing the "good" part to get the "cheap."

Here's an unsubstantiated possibility I'll throw out there: The Mets are reportedly looking for a right-handed platoon partner for Daniel Murphy at first base next season. At first glance, Casey McGehee would make sense, as his versatility would allow him to fill in at other positions when he's not starting at first. Just a thought.

And while I'm out here on the rampant speculation train, View From Bernie's Chalet has a look at one potential Opening Day lineup for the 2011 Brewers. He presents a pretty encouraging possibility: A productive Brewer lineup with all eight position players under 30.

Earlier this week, the Milwaukee chapter of the BBWAA announced their postseason awards, but it's possible they didn't tell the whole story. Miller Park Drunk has the full list of awards presented.

By the way, to answer MPD's question: No, the Milwaukee BBWAA chapter isn't just the three writers from the Journal Sentinel. Six ballots were cast when voting on the awards: One of them was likely AP reporter Colin Fly, and I'm pretty sure the Madison Capital-Times and Racine Journal-Times also have active BBWAA members.

In the minors:

Bernie's Crew has short videos of the deliveries of three of the Brewers' top pitching prospects: Cody Scarpetta, Jake Odorizzi and Wily Peralta, if you haven't seen them before.
Baseball Intellect, at least partially spurred by this Battlekow interview, discusses Evan Anundsen's drop in velocity and the possibility that his high pitch counts in high school are to blame.
Baseball America has a report card for the Brewers' 2009 Draft. It's behind their pay wall, but Rattler Radio has several of the salient points.

Around baseball:

Astros: Outrighted catcher Chris Coste to AAA. Coste will be a minor league free agent.
Braves: Are expected to sign Tim Hudson to a three year contract extension worth $27 million.
Dodgers: Manny Ramirez exercised his $20 million player option to remain with the team next season.
Rays: Outrighted first baseman Chris Richard to AAA, making him a minor league free agent.
Rockies: Reliever Joel Peralta rejected an outright assignment to the minor leagues and will become a free agent.

Yesterday, Roguejim noted MLB Trade Rumors' Bad Contract Swap Meet. That's a good idea, but this one would be better TV: Dave Cameron of FanGraphs proposes the Bad Contract White Elephant. Clearly it's intended to be tongue in cheek, but I'd watch it.

Earlier this week, BCB endorsed the Phillies in the World Series, and we're off to a pretty good start. It appears not everyone got the memo, though: Ryan Grant is rooting for the Yankees.

I don't buy a lot of baseball books, but I gladly shell out the money for John Sickels' Baseball Prospect Book every year. It's easily my top resource for scouting reports on over a thousand prospects and it's great to have on hand when attending spring training or minor league games. I've probably consulted it 30-40 times in my work here during the 2009 season. Sickels is currently accepting pre-orders for the 2010 book, which help pay for its publication. If you're a minor league buff or just want to be one step closer to knowing what you're talking about when discussing prospects, I'd highly recommend picking up a copy.

Speaking of the minors, the Reds' decision to move spring training from Sarasota to Goodyear, Arizona has sent a ripple into the minor leagues: The Reds, who also own their Florida State League affiliate in Sarasota, are selling it to the Pirates, who intend to move it to their spring training facility in Bradenton. So, in one year's time the city of Sarasota may lose both their spring training presence and their FSL team.

On this day in 2002, Ned Yost was hired to manage the Brewers, and Ken Macha was named manager of the A's. We'll have more on Brewer managers later today.

Happy birthday to Dana Eveland, who pitched in 36 games as a Brewer in 2005 and 2006 and turns 26, knuckleballer and 2007 Nashville Sound R.A. Dickey,, who turns 35, and Narciso Elvira, who appeared in four games for the 1990 Brewers and turns 42.

Oh, and if you're feeling nostalgic, this description of Gabe Kapler's play should bring back some memories.

Drink up.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:03:58 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Dear front office: Please don't acquire Gary Matthews Jr., unless the Angels are willing to eat his salary AND take on Jeff Suppan's. Sincerely, Everyone

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Some things to read while getting a new backpack.

So apparently Gary Matthews Jr. wants out of Anaheim, and some Brewer fans (including Al) think he could be a good fit in center field next season, if the Angels agree to pay most of his salary. Meanwhile, Angels management is somewhere hoping and praying that there's one general manager left in baseball who thinks Matthews can be a productive major leaguer next season. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs notes that Matthews has been worth -$5.3 million in salary over the last three seasons. And while he was a pretty good defender at one point, TotalZone ranked him as the fourth worst defender in all of baseball last season. And he's 35 years old. On the scale of center fielders, Matthews is much closer to Corey Patterson than Mike Cameron.

The Milwaukee chapter of the BBWAA has unveiled their postseason awards, with Prince Fielder and Yovani Gallardo surprising no one by taking home Team MVP and Pitcher of the Year honors, respectively. Trevor Hoffman was named top newcomer, Todd Coffey was named Unsung Hero and Craig Counsell won the "Good Guy" award, which may be renamed for him when he retires. Mike Cameron also received two community service awards: one from the team and one from the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. Congratulations to all of them.

Speaking of Mike Cameron, he's one of two Brewers among the top 6 free agents by WAR. Cameron ranks sixth with 4.3 WAR, a couple spots down from Felipe Lopez, who is fourth with 4.6.

Josh Butler has a new blog post from the AFL. Today's topics include night games, strep throat and his repertoire. Butler has been home for a few days with strep but still expects to make his scheduled start today.

Unless another package of stuff shows up on my doorstep, today is your last chance to enter the Bring Back Seth McClung contest. As of this writing, 401 people have signed up. I'll draw seven winners from the group at 5 pm today.

There had previously been speculation that Doug Melvin could consider leaving the Brewers to become president of the Blue Jays. You can lay that rumor to rest: Interim President Paul Beeston has been given the full time job. Elsewhere around baseball:

Astros: Signed former Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills to be their new manager.
Rays: Signed Gabe Kapler to a one year deal for slightly more than $1 million.

As you may have heard, Mark McGwire is coming out of hiding to return to the Cardinals as hitting coach. Lookout Landing speculates on how his first meeting with Skip Schumaker might go.

Speaking of Lookout Landing, they spent the evening last night watching a winter league game in Venezuela, and have some observations on the experience.

Side note: Lookout Landing also has a link to free live broadcasts of VWL games, but when I clicked on it the first thing I got was a box asking for permission to connect to my Facebook account. Don't fall for it.

Still looking for a replacement for Jason Kendall? MLB Trade Rumors has a list of catchers that may be available via trade. Most of them aren't too exciting, but it's possible all of them would be better than Kendall next season.

So this is how the other half lives: As part of the McCourt divorce, Jamie McCourt has submitted a list of her monthly living expenses, which includes over $30,000 (per month) for clothing and accessories, over $1000 for wine, and $533 per month for a birthday party. Apparently when you're that wealthy, you get a birthday every month. Who knew?

Speaking of birthdays, happy birthday to:

Braden Looper, who turns 35.
Lenny Harris who spent 2002 as a Brewer and turns 45.
Mark Knudson, who appeared in 106 games as a Brewer in the late 80's and early 90's, and turns 49.
And Bob Melvin, who served as Phil Garner's bench coach and turns 48.

Staying on the subject of birthdays, Wezen-ball has compiled a calendar of Top Birthday WARs. So if you've ever wanted to know the best player born on your birthday, there you go. Mine is Joe Judge, who racked up 43.7 WAR playing first base for the Washington Senators from 1915 to 1932.

That's all I have for you today, unless you're someone in need of a list of unacceptable Halloween candy.

Drink up.

More on the Gabe Kapler Re-Signing

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:13:15 -0000

In the last thread, GomesSweetGomes raised a good point about Gabe Kapler's plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers. How many of those 64 plate appearances came in garbage time and how many cost the Rays during a close game? Using Baseball-Reference's Play Index tool, I found each of the right-handed pitchers Kapler batted against in 2009 and decided to look only at relievers. There are only three possible explanations for Kapler starting against a righty:

1. Scheduled off day for one of the outfielders with Gabe Gross and Ben Zobrist already in the lineup.

2. Information to suggest he can succeed against said pitcher.

3. Maddon losing his mind.

Appearances against a reliever are more random. It could be a blowout or the opposing team could have a lefty up in the pen, Gross could have been removed from the game earlier, or it could be too early to risk running into a Gross/lefty match-up later on. First order of business was checking to see whether the Rays were ahead or behind when most of the 46 plate appearances occurred.

By lead state

Tied: 3

Ahead: 25

Behind: 18

Of course the next question is: well how far ahead or behind were the Rays? If Kapler is facing a righty in the top of the ninth up or down by 10 then who cares, but if he's facing a righty with two on and down two runs the level of understanding changes completely.

By deficit

Within one run: 8

Within two runs: 18

Within three runs: 24

Within four runs: 27

Five runs or greater: 19

I think we can all agree that Kapler's plate appearances in games with a five run margin of lead should be excused. That takes 19 of the 46 away, giving Gross 27 plate appearances against relievers and 45 total. Next up is the inning.

By inning

Fourth: 4

Fifth: 5

Sixth: 11

Seventh: 13

Eighth: 7

Ninth: 6

The seventh through ninth is inexcusable unless Maddon feels Kapler versus that righty is a better match-up than Gross against a warming lefty. Unfortunately there's no way of knowing how many of those latter frame plate appearances came with a lefty warming, so for now we have to assume none of them did. Ah, but wait, the margin of lead must also be taken into account. Of those 26 plate appearances 15 came with a lead or deficit of 5 or more runs.

That leaves 11 plate appearances where you have to notch it up to poor management or being outmaneuvered by the opponent. Now I know some will question why I'm seemingly excusing the fourth-through-sixth inning plate appearances and well, I'm not, but I can live with those because it comes down to game theory and a payoff matrix that looks something like this:

Let me explain if that isn't wholly intuitive. If the opposition has a lefty on the mound, the Rays would ideally have Gross bat. However, if the opposition has a lefty on the mound then the Rays would want Kapler to bat. Obvious, right? Okay, now imagine you're in the fifth inning in a tied game. You can bring in Gross to face the righty, but that leaves you open for a lefty assault later on, or you could sit tight with Kapler and maintain the flexibility in a later state. With a lefty (or righty) warming, the Rays are essentially sticking their foot in the bear trap either way. No matter which Gabe goes to bat, the opponent will have the final say. That's only with a pitcher warming with the opposite hand of the current pitcher.

Without digressing further, it seems the number of consequential plate appearances Kapler received against righties is about half the total number. A bit more if you aren't forgiving of the pre-seventh inning at-bats. If Kapler maintains a .900 OPS against lefties (and that's extremely conservative) in 150 plate appearances next year, he'd need less than a .400 OPS through 65 plate appearances to wipe that offensive effort out. With the exception of this year (aided by a .205 BABIP) he hasn't been that poor dating back through 2004. That' without considering defensive contributions either.

It's a good deal.

Tampa Bay Rays Re-Sign Gabe Kapler For One-Year, $1.05M

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:11:15 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

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Per the Rays press release:

Back in September I wrote this:

It's fair to say Kapler is the superior hitter and Perez the superior fielder. So where do you draw the line on either? As mentioned, Perez is younger - cheaper too - and not yet out of options. This means, he can be sent up and down next season as the Rays please without being offered to waivers.

Okay, so let's look at the numbers. In statistical terms, if we assume Kapler will OPS .950 (Ed note: Kapler's last three years actually have him with a .965 OPS against lefties, but I wanted to prove my point by contracting the difference into something more reasonable and round) and Perez .800 in 200 plate appearances, then Perez must be 12 runs better defensively to register as the better player. Let's say Perez is +8 on defense and the difference is four runs. That's a pretty marginal difference, all told, but since wins are worth about 4.84 million, and this is 0.4 of a win, we can see that Kapler is worth 1.94 million more than Perez - at least based on our projections which I'm not claiming are anywhere near accurate. That means our logical test on whether Kapler should be re-signed or not is pretty simple. It comes down to this equation:

X - 400,000 = 1.94 million

Where X is Kapler's proposed salary, 400,000 is Perez' salary, and 1.94 million is the predetermined value of the performance gap. The Rays could go cost efficient and just say to heck with Kapler, or they could keep him around and reap the quantitative and qualitative benefits.

The deal is for $1.05M which falls within that range. A win usually runs about four times that, and here the Rays just bought 1-1.5 wins for a million. Good move.

The Last Man Sitting

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:15:31 -0000

One of the more interesting story lines of this offseason, to me at anyway, will be the competition for the last remaining bench spot*.

*This is barring any major trades or signings before opening day

The Rays came into 2009 with a fairly strong bench consisting of Ben Zobrist, Gabe Kapler/Gross, Willy Aybar, and Shawn Riggans. Although he was already getting semi-regular at bats, Ben Zobrist was thrust into the starting lineup when Aki Iwamura went down with a knee injury in late May. That injury forced the Rays to call up players like Reid Brignac and Joe Dillon to warm the now vacant bench spot. Shawn Riggans suffered his usual injury set back which allowed Michel Hernandez a roster spot until the Zaunbie Nation came to Tampa Bay. The bench was obviously stretched out more than the Rays would have liked last season but it did an admirable job. The options for 2010 will offer a slightly different cast of characters.

Fernando Perez:

-Perez has long been one of my favorite Ray players, but that’s been more for his talents off the field than on it. A useful reserve outfielder for most teams, Perez may be forced out of a roster spot with the Rays thanks to a likely Matt Joyce/Ben Zobrist platoon in right field. Perez would be better served playing every day in Triple A and working on the next great American novel instead of wasting away at the end of the Rays bench.

Reid Brignac:

-The probable shortstop of the future, Brignac does have an option left and would no doubt be better off playing full time at Durham than riding the pine in St. Pete. Unless the Rays trade Jason Bartlett I don't see Brignac beginning the year on the Rays bench.

Gabe Kapler:

-Kapler is an interesting candidate. He doesn't yet have a contract for 2010, but the Rays would be in need of a right handed outfield bat coming off the bench. Kapler earned $1m last season and did job very well, putting up an OPS of .931 against left handed pitching. If Kapler is willing to accept another contract of $1m, or maybe a little less, I think the Rays have to seriously consider bringing him back.

Willy Aybar:

Aybar will undoubtably be a member of the Rays' bench in 2010 as the primary backup at 3B/1B. Even though Aybar rated uncharacteristically poor at every defensive position he played in 2009 he isn't a liability with the glove and his bat more than holds its own. The addition of Sean Rodriguez will drastically cut into the amount of games Aybar sees at second base next season. His salary of $1.35m is very reasonable for the production he provides.

Sean Rodriguez:

The main piece in the Scott Kazmir trade, Rodriguez will likely be the platoon partner of Ben Zobrist at second base and is able to backup Jason Bartlett at shortstop. He'll strike out enough to get the local fans to boo him, but his versatility and power bat should be enough to assure himself of a bench spot in 2010.

Matt Joyce:

I see Matt Joyce being a part of what I'm calling the Ben Zobrist Platoon menage a trois. Joyce starts in right field against right handed pitchers while Zobrist starts at 2B. Against southpaws Joyce would sit in favor of the switch hitting Zobrist, while Rodriguez would play second base. Joyce spent most of 2009 in AAA and played well enough to earn a promotion, not to mention the fact that Gabe Gross and Gabe Kapler are not likely to return.

Catcher:

The plan for a starting catcher is still up in the air, so I'm even going to begin to speculate on who the backup will be, but obviously there will be one on the roster.

I'm not sure which direction the team will go, but I'm strongly in favor of the re-signing of Gabe Kapler. They could go with a four or five man bench next season depending on how they decide to structure the bullpen. If they choose a four man bench I think Rodriguez, Aybar, Kapler, and Catcher would be the best fit to begin the season. If they go five then I would lean toward Fernando Perez to fill the last spot, if only for his pinch running abilities. No matter who they choose or how they structure it, the Rays will once again have a cost effective and productive bench in 2010.

Zorilla Fever: Catch It! Or, How Good is Ben Zobrist?

devil_fingers — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:00:35 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

Tampa Bay Rays' Ben Zobrist skips around the bases like a girl after hitting a grand slam off Kansas City Royals starter Brian Bannister-Posnanski during the fourth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, June 3, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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I was going to do somethig on BaseRuns this week, then I realized that it was boring. Maybe I'll make it more interesting after the season is over. In the meantime, I thought I'd add a bit more wood to the Ben Zobrist On Fire Bandwagon (how's that for a poorly mixed metaphor?). He went from utility guy to taking Akinori Iwamura's gig. He went from fill-in middle infielder to legit AL MVP candidate (Ken Rosenthal's gonna love this). He's even got a cool nickname.

We all know, of course, that current performance does not equal true talent, right? I mean, clearly, Zobrist is good, but 7.9 WAR (as of this writing) good? Probably not. It's not clear where Zobrist will play on the field next season with Jason Bartlett being trade bait, Akinori Iwamura's option situation, and exactly what the Rays are thinking for right field between Gabe Gross, Gabe Kapler (okay, the latter half of the Grapler platoon is probably gone), and Matt Joyce (remember him?). But it's pretty clear that he's going to play somewhere for the Rays.

I'll try to put aside the bitterness of having kept him for my 2007 fantasy team that also included Shin-Soo Choo, they both sucked, so I let them go. Only to have them be picked up during the 2008 season by others... and so on Ugh. So let's get back to d_f's crappy "true talent" machine and see what it pumps out for Zorilla!

Ben Zobrist

#18 / Second Base / Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 6-3

Weight: 200

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: May 26, 1981

Hitting:(+basestealing): As usual, we'll use a variation on the method suggested in The Book for estimating a players true offensive talent -- regressing his wOBA (this version from FanGraphs including steals) for each major-league season against 200 PA of league average. In brief appearances in 2006 and 2007, Zobrist was helpless at the plate, posting wOBAs of .243 and .180, respectively. However, toward the end of 2008, Zobirst got called up and put up a very good .364 wOBA in 227 PA. Given his previous performance in both the majors and minors, that appeared to be a fluke, but he started 2009 on fire, and with Iwamura's injury, Zorilla got enough playing time to silence the doubters with a (as of the moment) .399 wOBA over 578 PA. Regressing each season, doing a weighted average, and adding a slightly age adjustment gives us a current true talent level of a .358 wOBA, which translates to about 17 runs above average over 700 PA.

Fielding: Zobrist came up as a SS, and mostly played there prior to 2009 in the majors. He's played all over this season, putting up great UZR numbers at both 2B and RF. Since he spent most of his time this season at 2B, and it seems likely (to me, at least) that he'll be starting there in 2010, we'll try to get a sense of his talent there. Getting a good projection is tough, considering how little time he spent there in the majors prior to 2009. So what I've done is to take his 2009 2B UZR/150, then add in his SS numbers from the prior season while adding 5 to the SS numbers to account for the relative difficulty of that position. It's not perfect, but it's decent. Zobrist has an outstanding +24.1 UZR/150 at 2B so far this season, but his prior ratings at SS were less than impressive (in small sample sizes). There's plenty of regression, and I incorporate speed score into that for outfielders and also middle infielders, although I'm not sure if I'll continue that for MIs. I also included data from the Fans Scouting Report. This was particularly helpful because it allowed me to get a sense of Zobrist's skills relative to 2B even in the seasons when he was playing mostly SS. The Fans were less impressed, and my translations rate him at 4.2, -11.2, -7.0, and +3 runs at 2B from 2006-2009. Given the relative lack of data, I used 50% regressed UZR and 50% Fans Scouting Report. The final result was that Zobrist projects as about a +2 defender at 2B.

Baserunning: Using EqBRR from Baseball Prospectus (minus steals since that's included in wOBA), Zobrist wasn't really that bad or good. There's such a small sample that everything is heavily regressed. Let's call it average for now.

Adding it all up: +17 hitting +2 fielding +2.5 positional adjustment +25 AL replacement level = 46.5 times 85% playing time = about a 4.0 WAR player. Not bad for a guy making the minimum who, prior to this season, projected as a utility man who was a seeming thrown-in when the Rays traded away the immortal Aubrey Huff.

it's still hard to believe, given the out-of-seemingly-nowhere monster seasons had by both Zobrist and the previously-discussed Jason Bartlett, that the Rays aren't in the playoff hunt. But they'll be back. Even if he doesn't put up another Mauer/Pujols-esque season next year (and it's likely he won't), the Rays are in great shape with Zorilla wherever they end up playing him.

Update: Thanks to MGL's comment below, I finally got off my butt and corrected how my spreadsheet is set up (I'd prefer to do this in my database which has a more sophisticated [if still crude] Marcels-esque script in it, but it uses baseball databank, which understandably isn't updated in season... if FanGraphs would add current player age to their leaderboards, however... pretty please, Mr. Appleman? Right after you port the ap to BlackBerry?). Anyway, I don't know how badly this skew some earlier stuff, but long story short: Zobrist projects as more of a .348 wOBA guy, or +11/700. So he's closer to 3.5 WAR player at 2B. I leave the above unaltered as a testimony to my sloth, stupidity, and what half-assed projections can do.

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Right Field)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 06:05:06 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

Hawpe is the poster child for the value of defensive metrics.

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at the right field position.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fabulous Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of how WAR is calculated.

Right Field, according to Tom Tango's positional adjustment scale, is given a rank of -7.5, equal to that of a left fielder. While right field requires a stronger, more accurate arm, more balls on average are hit to the left fielder. In either case, most MLB clubs rely on corner outfielders for offensive production, deemphasizing their defensive contributions--though indications are that the traditional view is changing.

Right fielders are expected to not only to catch fly balls but also are especially expected to deny baserunners advancing to an extra base. Particularly desired traits for right fielders are arm strength and accuracy (as they are farthest from third base) as well as instincts (depth perception and tracking skills).

As this applies to the Rockies, right fielders in Coors have a smaller area to cover in the outfield relative to left and center field, making arm strength and accuracy more important than range.

Only three players have played in right field for over 100 games in Colorado's franchise history (Larry Walker, Brad Hawpe, and Dante Bichette--who was included as a left-fielder), rendering this position group fairly shallow in quantity, much like first base. Also like first base, one player shines well above the competition. However, there is still some room for surprises on the list.

Right Fielders

Note: most if not all of these players played multiple outfield positions with the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker.

1. Larry Walker

Career WAR: 44.1 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 18.3, 1997-1999 (1st)
Top Season: 9.0, 1997 (1st)
Average Rank: 1

Walker is far and away the greatest Rockies outfielder ever. He was signed before the 1995 season, just in time for Coors Field to open and the formation of the Blake Street Bombers. Walker remained with the Rockies until midway through the 2004 season, when Colorado essentially traded him for salary relief (which was then used to sign Dexter Fowler). While with the Rockies, Walker made four All-Star games, won five Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers, and the 1997 NL MVP award.

His MVP campaign in 1997 was his best year with the Rockies (the best season by a Rockie, period). Walker was unconscious, hitting .366/.452/.720/.494 with 49 HRs, 130 RBI, 33 SB, and 409 TB! That's flat out amazing as a hitter (59 BRAA), but it gets better--according to Smith's metrics Walker was an asset on the bases (7 Bsr), avoiding hitting into double plays (2 GIDP), in the field (5 TZ), and with his outfield arm (5 OFarm). In all, he was worth 9.0 WAR in 1997.

That was Larry Walker--the total package as a baseball player, as well as a class clown.

The argument isn't that Walker wasn't great. It's obvious that he was. No, the question is if Walker is the greatest Rockie ever (Todd Helton obviously being his main competition)? I looked at Helton's career a few weeks back.

Let's look at Walker's Rockies career (average is per Rockies PA):

Year	wOBA	WAR
1995	.418	3.5
1996	.393	1.4
1997	.494	9
1998	.461	4.9
1999	.486	4.4
2000	.392	1.8
2001	.461	7.4
2002	.431	5.9
2003	.388	3.8
2004	.432	2.0
PA Adj.	.442	.009197

What does this mean? On a per PA basis during his Rockies career Walker was worth about 0.1 Runs Above Replacement. In other words, Walker was good for one WAR per every 109 PA--stunning production. If extrapolated over a 600 PA season, Walker averaged about 5.52 WAR as a Rockie. On this measure and by PA wOBA he bests Todd Helton (.421 wOBA and .007573 WAR/PA--4.54/600 PA season), but as they say, health is a skill.

While Helton has accumulated (through 2008, a period of 12 seasons) 7117 PAs, Walker got only 4795 PAs as a Rockie over ten seasons. This was due to Larry having minor (and major) injuries nearly every season he was with the Rockies (he only had 600 PAs in two of his ten Colorado seasons). It's the old counting stat vs. rate stat argument. Which is more important, longevity or per PA production?

According to my methodology, Helton's grades out higher in career WAR (53.9-44.1) and 3 year WAR (21.9-18.3) while Walker leads in one season WAR (9.0-8.8).

As such, I'll call this one for Todd Helton as the greatest Rockies position player ever. If Walker had stayed healthy, he would probably top this list (as his superior rate stats show).

Considering his Montreal and St. Louis seasons, Walker's total career WAR was 67.1, putting him squarely in Hall of Fame consideration. In fact, his MVP award and sustained excellence gives Walker arguably a stronger argument than Helton for the Hall of Fame.

2. Brad Hawpe

Career WAR: 2.0 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 4.4, 2005-2007 (2nd)
Top Season: 2.7, 2007 (2nd)
Average Rank: 2.33

Brad Hawpe was an eleventh round selection out of LSU in the 2000 draft. The converted first baseman moved quickly through the system, making his debut in 2004. Since 2005, Hawpe has been the team's primary right fielder, meaning that he has the second most games played in right field in franchise history (665 and counting).

Surprised to see Hawpe with only 2.0 career WAR? This is especially surprising given that Hawpe produced 4.4 WAR between 2005-2007. Unfortunately, both 2004 (-0.7) and 2008 (-1.7) were awful years for Brad. Why is this? A historically bad year in the field in 2008, the worst that I've seen in this study (closest was Dante Bichette's 1999, in which he had a TZ of -31).

In 2008 Hawpe had a nice year at the plate (.283/.381/.498/.379), worth 14 BRAA, but his TZ was -36 and he wielded a -7 OFarm! In 2007, Hawpe had enjoyed a TZ of 2 and in 2006 his strong outfield arm was worth 8 runs, but both of these trends turned ugly in 2008. His defense this year has been better than last year, but by no means does it approach league average, while his hitting is about at last year's level.

The 30 year-old Hawpe is likely in his prime years, meaning that his offensive and defensive numbers will only decline from here on out. Given this fact, his $7.5 million price tag next year (with a $10 million club option for 2011), and the glut of talented young outfielders the Rockies possess, it is probably time for the Rockies to move Hawpe for whatever they can get for him in the offseason. His bat simply is counteracted by his bad defense (he's got 45 career BRAA and a -53 career TZ). And yes, I've been advocating this for a while now.

3. Jeffrey Hammonds

Career WAR: 2.4 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 2.4, 2000 (3rd)
Top Season: 2.4, 2000 (3rd)
Average Rank: 2.67

I have fond memories of Jeffrey Hammonds (he was very useful to my first ever fantasy baseball team), who was acquired in the Dante Bichette trade following the 1999 season. Despite having the unenviable task of following the popular Bichette, Hammonds succeeded in filling in for an injured Larry Walker and in all three outfield positions. The 29 year old Hammonds hit 20 HRs and had 106 RBIs while batting .335/.395/.529/.395 while providing neutral fielding value and was selected to the All-Star game. It was by far the best year in Hammonds' career, after which the Rockies let the Brewers overpay for his services.

4. Jeromy Burnitz

Career WAR: 1.3 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 1.3, 2004 (4th)
Top Season: 1.3, 2004 (1st)
Average Rank: 4

Jeromy Burnitz, like Jeffrey Hammonds, was a one year mercenary for the Rockies that produced great results in place of Larry Walker (in this case due to him being traded). The burly 35 year old free agency acquisition (scrap heap department) actually played a decent amount of center field too, but the majority of his time was in right. Burnitz mashed 37 HRs with 110 RBIs as a Rockie while hitting .283/.356/.559/.380 that was mitigated somewhat by his TZ of -7 in the field. The end result was a slightly below league average season.

Unfortunately for Burnitz, he had priced himself too high for the Rockies (plus, Gen R needed to be implemented), so he signed with the Cubs for three times the money he earned with Colorado.

5. Gabe Kapler

Career WAR: 0.8 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 0.8, 2002-2003 (5th)
Top Season: 0.7, 2002 (6th)
Average Rank: 5.33

Gabe Kapler is an interesting case in that he was good before he came to Colorado as a 26 year old as part of the Todd Hollandsworth trade in 2002 and performed well after the Rockies sold him to the Red Sox midway through 2003, but didn't particularly benefit from the Coors Field effect.

Over what equated to a third of a season's worth of plate appearances, Kapler was merely a league average player in part time duty spelling Walker. For these services Kapler actually made the largest salary of his career (much of which was picked up by the Red Sox). Kapler was out of MLB after 2006 (and was managing a Red Sox minor league affiliate), but somehow caught back on with the Brewers in 2008, posting one of the best years in his career, which still endures with Tampa Bay this year.

Other Rockies right fielders that contributed positive value to the club were: Mark Little (0.7), Mark Sweeney (0.6), Dustan Mohr (0.4)

Now that I've completed the lists of position players, I'll be tackling over the next few weeks relievers and starting pitchers, and then I'll conclude with the all-time greatest Rockies teams.

Speaking of the Strong and Adaptable

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 14:42:34 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

Mustache and Bubbles sounds like two parts of an epic biker gang.

View full size photo »

Falling out of the playoff race is the absolute worst thing for this website. I don't mean in terms of visits, clicks, and views either. The network worries about those things, I don't. Right now, there are three daily content choices, 1) write about a current trend or observation, 2) write about something that may happen in the off-season, 3) do not write at all. Usually I fall in between 1 and 2 and it's a fine line to walk. The off-season is a long, dark, lonely cave. Wasting all the matches now gives less hope for survival. Being such, I'll spark one today and tackle an underlining question about next year's team: who will the fourth outfielder be?

Gabe Kapler is not what you think he is. He looks like the epitome of the dumb jock. Bald head, huge muscles, expressionless face 99% of the time. Then you hear him talk, or read some of his quotes, or talk to people who talk to him, and he's not that guy. Unlike his play, he seems very in control of his thoughts and emotions. This is a bit surprising to say the least and I couldn't believe Jonah Keri when he first shared this experience until I witnessed it myself.

Sure, he encompasses gritty play and sometimes his ballerina act in the outfield gets tiresome, but I've grown to enjoy his play more often than not. Mostly because he kills left-handed pitching like he should. In 143 plate appearances against southpaws to date, Kapler has 35 hits (21 of which are of the extra base variety), 23 walks (only 15 strikeouts), and a line of .299/.406/.590. That is phenomenal and when you add that his defense isn't half bad either, you have a bargain for the million-plus the Rays paid him.

Now, Kapler has struggled in limited exposure against righties. A .115/.164/.115 is repulsive, still his BABIP against them is .167, a figure unlikely to sustain. A week ago he turned 34-years-old and I'm sure the line of suitors for him will be decent if he so chooses to continue playing. Or he could return.

The problem with this is that the Rays outfield is again stacked. It's funny how these things work out. Three years ago, the Rays had too many outfielders: Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young, Elijah Dukes, Jonny Gomes - okay, "outfielder" - and the transitioning B.J. Upton. Last year people said they didn't have enough and they had to acquire Nathan Haynes and Gabe Gross during the season, plus sign Eric Hinske. Now, the Rays are right back to the point where it's overkill. Crawford and Upton remain, the rest are long gone, and Matt Joyce, Desmond Jennings, Gross, and Fernando Perez are presumably looking for roster spots on the 2010 team.

That doesn't leave a ton of room for a 34-year-old whose best utility is his ability to do what most of the baseball corner outfield population can do: hit lefties. You figure Joyce sticks, Jennings goes to Durham, Gross changes addresses, and that leaves Kapler/Perez fighting for the outfield bench spot. This battle, if it comes to be, drips of intrigue.

I'm not going to compare Kapler's intelligence to Perez' -- just as I'm unlikely to compare Perez' body fat percentage to Kapler's -- but I think I'm reasonable in stating that both would finish in an upper percentile if MLB were to hold a league-wide IQ testing ‘contest'. Given Perez' history in center field and his speed and range combination, he figures to be a plus defender, probably edging Kapler by a few runs over a full season. Perez is coming off a wrist injury and even prior to that there were murmurs the Rays didn't like him switch-hitting. In a little over 600 Triple-A plate appearances Perez has hit.287/.363/.391 and since 2005 has hit .299/.368/.470 against southpaws.

It's fair to say Kapler is the superior hitter and Perez the superior fielder. So where do you draw the line on either? As mentioned, Perez is younger - cheaper too - and not yet out of options. This means, he can be sent up and down next season as the Rays please without being offered to waivers.

Okay, so let's look at the numbers. In statistical terms, if we assume Kapler will OPS .950 (Ed note: Kapler's last three years actually have him with a .965 OPS against lefties, but I wanted to prove my point by contracting the difference into something more reasonable and round) and Perez .800 in 200 plate appearances, then Perez must be 12 runs better defensively to register as the better player. Let's say Perez is +8 on defense and the difference is four runs. That's a pretty marginal difference, all told, but since wins are worth about 4.84 million, and this is 0.4 of a win, we can see that Kapler is worth 1.94 million more than Perez - at least based on our projections which I'm not claiming are anywhere near accurate. That means our logical test on whether Kapler should be re-signed or not is pretty simple. It comes down to this equation:

X - 400,000 = 1.94 million

Where X is Kapler's proposed salary, 400,000 is Perez' salary, and 1.94 million is the predetermined value of the performance gap. The Rays could go cost efficient and just say to heck with Kapler, or they could keep him around and reap the quantitative and qualitative benefits.

I guess it really comes down to one thing: whether Sunburst Entertainment wants to pursue poetry and classical music or muscle shirts and hunk calendars.