SB Nation - Josh Outman

Phillies Top 10 Stories of 2009: No. 10 -- Improvement on the Farm

WholeCamels — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 14:38:45 -0000

First in a series of ten (seriously!) articles on the 2009 Phillies.

As recently as 2005, the Phillies farm system had the worst minor league winning percentage in all of professional baseball. Organizational winning percentage may not be the best way to judge system strength, but you get the idea. Things have turned around since then. So much so, that the organization has been able to unload six of their top ten prospects (Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp) at the deadline for pitching help, and they still have one of the best farm systems in baseball.

The biggest reason? The system's top three prospects -- RHP Kyle Drabek, and outfielders Michael Taylor and Domonic Brown. The three guys who were too good to trade for Roy Halladay.

More after the jump...

Drabek, coming off Tommy John surgery, posted a 3.19 ERA with 150 strikeouts and just 50 walks in 158 innings pitched between Class A Clearwater and Double-A Reading. Drabek only turns 22 early next month. The Phillies shut Drabek down in August when he led the minors in innings pitched; a judicious decision, considering his recent arm surgery. He projects as a #2 starter in the majors, but will likely spend all of 2010 in Double-A and Triple-A, barring disaster in Philadelphia.

Michael Taylor posted a combined .320/.395/.549 line between Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley, with 20 home runs. An extremely strong contact hitter (just 70 strikeouts) with a line-drive swing, the 6'6", 250 pound outfielder looks to force his way into the big leagues as soon as mid 2010 -- whether it's with the Phillies or another team remains to be seen. He'll be 24 next season, so he's just about "done."

Domonic Brown has emerged as the organization's top prospect. An exciting mix of tools and skills, Brown went .299/.377/.504 mostly between Clearwater and Reading in his age 21 season. Brown will need at least one more full year in the minors and will probably start 2010 in Reading.

Aside from those three, there's a great deal of organizational depth, particularly among the pitchers -- lower level guys with high upside like Trevor May and Brody Colvin, and future reliever types like Joe Savery, Mike Stutes and Vance Worley, not to mention Justin DeFratus, Austin Hyatt, Jonathan Pettibone, Matt Way, etc. etc. You get the idea. Grab a bunch of nice arms, and hope to hit on a couple of them. It's as good a strategy as any. Oh, and Scott Mathieson is hitting the mid to upper 90s again.

Among the position players, catcher Travis D'Arnaud and outfielder Anthony Gose lead the non-Taylor/Brown positional prospects, but both are still at least a few years away.

Of course there are weaknesses -- no real third base or middle infield prospects to speak of (unless Freddy Galvis can actually figure out how to hit a little) -- and a disconcerting tendency to go for toolsy outfielder types with high picks. But in 2009, the Phillies farm system proved beyond any doubt that it belongs in the top third in MLB. Quite a change from a few years ago, when it was one of the very worst.

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

Oakland Athletics Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

John Sickels — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 12:00:30 -0000

by Frank Franklin II - AP

Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Brett Anderson (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Oakland Athletics 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

This list was originally published December 12, 2008. This is a review of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. I'm not doing new grades or lists until I start working on the 2010 book.

1) Trevor Cahill, RHP, Grade A-: 4.66 ERA with 79/64 K/BB in 158 major league innings, 165 hits. Would like to see more strikeouts, but given how much he was rushed this isn't a terrible season.

2) Brett Anderson, LHP, Grade A-: 4.42 ERA with 119/41 K/BB in 147 innings, 150 hits in the majors. Components are better than Cahill's.

3) Aaron Cunningham, OF, Grade B: Hitting .306/.376/.491 with 11 homers, 10 steals for Triple-A Sacramento. Hit .151/.211/.245 in 53 at-bats for Oakland. Will get more chances.

4) Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Grade B: 2.51 ERA with 71/34 K/BB in 61 innings for Sacramento. 6.07 ERA with 81/45 K/BB in 73 innings for Oakland, 85 hits. Very frustrating pitcher. The high strikeout rate shows that he's got a load of potential, and he has nothing left to prove in the minors.

5) Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Grade B: Hit .326/.392/.446 for Double-A Midland, .248/.317/.358 for Sacramento. Needs more Triple-A time.

6) Chris Carter, 1B, Grade B: Hit .337/.435/.576 with 41 doubles, 24 homers, 82 walks, 101 RBI for Midland. Promoted to Sacramento and has hit three homers in his first eight games. Looks like a monster hitter. Just need to figure out position.

7) Jemile Weeks, 2B, Grade B: Hit .299/.385/.468 in 50 games for Class A Stockton, .267/.327/.395 in 25 games for Midland. Slowed by injuries early.

8) Sean Doolittle, 1B-OF, Grade B: Hit .267/.364/.448 in 28 games for Sacramento, went on the DL May 9^th with a knee injury.

9) Michael Inoa, RHP, Grade B-: Missed the whole year with an elbow injury.

10) Vin Mazzaro, RHP, Grade B-: 2.38 ERA with 44/17 K/BB in 57 innings for Sacramento, 5.32 ERA with 59/39 K/BB in 91 innings for Oakland, 120 hits. Could be a decent inning-eater but I've always felt he was overhyped.

11) James Simmons, RHP, Grade B-: 5.42 ERA with 80/46 K/BB in 116 innings, 130 hits for Sacramento. Not wild about these ratios.

12) Henry Rodriguez, RHP, Grade B-: 6.05 ERA With 70/35 K/BB in 42 innings for Sacramento, 37 hits. Excellent K/IP ratio, few hits, but way too many walks.

13) Josh Outman, LHP, Grade B-: 3.48 ERA with 53/25 K/BB in 67 innings for Oakland. Was pitching very well, until hurting his elbow. I was right about him; he's a very good pitcher. Too bad his arm didn't hold up.

14) Brett Hunter, RHP, Grade B-: Severe control problems, 6.85 ERA with 55/59 K/BB in 47 innings for Class A Kane County.

15) Andrew Carignan, RHP, Grade B-: Pitched just two innings for Stockton in June.

16) Corey Brown, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .275/.360/.500 for Midland, limited to 62 games but playing well right now.

17) Andrew Bailey, RHP, Grade C+: 1.88 ERA with 76/22 K/BB in 72 innings, 44 hits for Oakland. Another personal favorite, a guy I liked before other people did.

18) Tyson Ross, RHP, Grade C+: 4.25 ERA with 108/52 K/BB in 131 innings between Stockton and Midland, 115 hits. As written about in my trip report a couple of weeks ago, he's got good stuff but command is wobbly at times.

19) John Donaldson, C, Grade C+: Hitting .271/.382/.415 for Midland, 79 walks. Love the plate discipline, would like to see more home run power.

20) Fautino De Los Santos, RHP, Grade C+: Rehabbing in the Arizona Rookie League, 3.86 ERA with 16/4 K/BB in 12 innings so far.

21) Sam Demel, RHP, Grade C+: 0.61 ERA with 26/9 K/BB in 29 innings for Midland, 3.18 ERA with 30/20 K/BB in 28 innings for Sacramento. Has some command issues but could help sometime next year.

22) Rashun Dixon, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .214/.300/.281 for Vancouver in the Northwest League. Great tools, no skills yet.

23) Jason Christian, SS, Grade C+: Hit .261/.341/.385 with 28 steals in 31 attempts for Class A Kane County. Went on the DL in July.

24) Arnold Leon, RHP, Grade C+: 3.17 ERA with 61/25 K/BB in 71 innings for Midland, 65 hits. Could get a look next year.

25) Petey Paramore, C, Grade C+: Hitting .233/.345/.300 for Kane County. Draws walks, but can't do anything else.

Cahill and Anderson were B+ on the original list but I raised them to A- before the book went to press. Considering their lack of high-level minor league experience, I think they've done OK this year, particularly Anderson. Gio is more problematic, and I don't have any idea what they should do with him frankly. Carter's bat looks excellent. I'm glad that Outman and Bailey have done well since I pushed them as underrated prospects. Too bad about Outman's elbow. I like the 2009 draft, mixing in college players with an upside guy like Max Stassi.

Could it be...? No, it can't be... OMG it really is! It's a Minor League Update!!!

grover — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 13:00:25 -0000

Hello again.

Work called me away for a while and it’s been tough getting back into the groove of things. For those who don’t know, I’m a wildland fire fighter and August got a little busy for those in my career field. So when I disappear again for a couple weeks just remember… I envy your access to in-door plumbing.

Anyways, I want to focus this week’s minor league update on the 40 man roster and the options that are going to have to be decided upon in the coming months. Why do this now instead of waiting until September 1st? The topic tickles my fancy, that’s why. As I seem to have (once again) misplaced my Cap o’ Omnipotence I’m forced to resort to basic logic and common sense reckoning to try and deduce the future roster.

That’s right… none of what I’m about to tell you is guaranteed!

The way I see it, there are 28-29 spots on the future 40 man roster all but guaranteed. On the pitching side, Brett Anderson, Andrew Bailey, Jerry Blevins, Dallas Braden, Craig Breslow, Trevor Cahill, Joey Devine, Gio Gonzalez, Jeff Gray, Jay Marshall, Vin Mazzaro, Clayton Mortensen, Josh Outman, Henry Rodriguez, Michael Wuertz and Brad Ziegler all seem certain to have jobs in the Oakland organization next year. That’s 16 pitchers of varying combinations of success/cheapness/options that aren’t going to be released just to make room on the roster. (There’s a pretty good chance that Outman will open next season on the 60-day DL, opening up an additional spot on the 40 man.) Santiago Casilla and Edgar Gonzalez are both arbitration eligible next season but neither pitched so well that the A’s are going to be eager to give them big pay raises, which could mean either or both players could end up as trade fodder or possibly even released. Dana Eveland is still on the 40 man roster as well, but his poor performance led to a demotion that will keep him from seeing any arby money next season. Unfortunately, Mr. Eveland’s suckitude forced the A’s to use his last option this season; meaning he can’t be stashed on Sacramento’s roster next season without first passing through waivers. Chances are Eveland isn’t going to be one of the 5 best SP candidates for the A’s come Opening Day 2010 and as a lefty with a pulse he’d probably get snapped up by some other team desperate for pitching. Therefore, I think this is good-bye to Mr. Eveland.

As it just so happens, it looks as if the A’s are going to need maybe 3 openings on the 40 man roster just to protect some arms that should attract a lot of interest in the Rule 5 draft. Pedro Figueroa hasn’t advanced past High-A ball but he’s a lefty with a low-90’s fastball. Brad Kilby is another lefty who’s put up back-to-back quality campaigns in Sacramento’s bullpen. Fautino De Los Santos is still trying to bounce back from 2008 TJ surgery but he wouldn’t last long if the A’s made him available for the Rule 5 draft. Jason Ray is in the same boat but I don’t think there’s much risk of someone grabbing him and keeping him on a 25 man roster all season.

There’s also a chance the A’s might be interested in bringing back Brett Tomko or Justin Duchscherer next season. Dan Giese should be fully recovered in time for next season; maybe the A’s are still interested in him as a swing man type. Plus, guys like Sam Demel and James Simmons could be knocking on the door next season and they’d need a spot on the 40 man to do so. Like I said, I could see 3-4 spots going to the guys I just listed and we haven’t even looked outside the organization to find help.

The hitting side of things is even more in flux.

Kurt Suzuki, Landon Powell, Eric Chavez (who?) Mark Ellis, Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Rajai Davis, Scott Hairston, Ryan Sweeney, Jack Cust, Tommy Everidge, Cliff Pennington and Gregorio Petit have spots on the 40 man roster. (Although I’m not sure if Petit has another minor league option available to him in 2010… if someone has a conclusive answer I’d appreciate hearing it.) C Anthony Recker is the most prominent bat in the A’s system that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter and I’m not sure if the A’s would consider his departure to be a great loss. So any Recker fans out there can protect him on their 40 man lists, but I’m thinking the A’s leave him off the protected roster. Chris Denorfia and Eric Patterson are both out of options, so if they aren’t in Oakland come Opening Day there’s a good chance they’ll be playing for another organization in 2010. I can maybe see Patterson as a back-up at 2B and in the outfield but I’ve got to squint and angle my head to one side to see it. I think it’s more likely that the A’s will try to bring back Adam Kennedy to serve as a deluxe back-up option/veteran mentor type.

The real twist comes when you consider the minor league bats that the A’s have in AA or higher that aren’t yet on the 40 man roster. Sean Doolittle, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Corey Brown, Chris Carter and Brett Wallace highlight the next wave of Oakland offense… which could be much more refreshing than the current ripple in the still waters we’ve experienced as of late. Yet again we haven’t looked outside the current organization to determine if maybe there’s another bat to be had.

So bring back Kennedy, add the newbies and you’re looking at 38-39 players on the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 draft. Does anyone see any glaring omissions?

Until the next time...

Jeff Niemann and The American League Rookie of The Year Contenders

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 14:12:32 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

5 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays starter Jeff Niemann pumps his fist after the final out of a 6-0 complete game shut out over the Oakland Athletics during a baseball game, Friday, July 10, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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The fact that a Rays pitcher is among the contenders for the American League Rookie of the Year award isn't surprising. The fact that is it Jeff Niemann and not David Price is a bit surprising. Since being drafted in 2004, Niemann went from potential staff ace to potential middle reliever before "winning" the fifth starter's job this spring. Niemann leads the Rays in wins (9), a category that still has value in award voting. Over the past month, he's been the Rays best and most consistent starter.

Preseason prognosticators pegged David Price or Matt Wieters as the AL Rookie of the Year favorites. However, as we head into August, neither uber-prospect has lived up to the hype. Wieters is hitting .246/.301/.373 and has just nine extra base hits. Around these parts we've seen flashes of brilliance from Price, but overall it's been a work in progress. Price is 3-4 with a 4.86 ERA/5.04 FIP in 10 starts. He, like Wieters, has been worth 0.3 WAR so far. Both have the final two plus months to catch up, but here are my favorites for the award in no particular order.

Gordon Beckham: We just saw Beckham and his ability to hit the ball this week. The guy should develop into an above average hitting third basemen. In his 167 plate appearances this year, he is hitting .286/.355/.422 with 14 extra base hits. Despite the nice offensive numbers, Beckham has been worth just 0.2 WAR because of below average defense. A short stop in college, Beckham has earned a negative -4.7 UZR at the hot corner.
Brett Gardner: Known for his speed and defense, Gardner has put up solid numbers offensively for the Yankees this year. He is hitting .274/.351/.391 with 20 steals and five triples. Defensively, Gardner has lived up to the hype and his 8.8 UZR in center field is the forth best ranking among all Major League centerfielders with at least 500 innings played at the position. The surprising solid offense and the well above average defense has Gardner with a WAR of 2.0 making him more valuable than B.J. Upton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Jones and well ahead of Vernon Wells(-1.0 WAR) in 2009.
Nolan Reimold: Oh great, another young hitter with legit 30 home run power in the Orioles lineup. Sure Jones, Wieters, and Nick Markakis get most of the attention, but Riemold is a masher in his own right. Hitting .271/.352/.453, Reimold, has nine home runs in 216 plate appearances. He ISO is currently .182 after never dipping below .200 at any level of the minor leagues. While he is a force offensively, Reimold is basically a DH playing left field. Once Luke Scott vacates the DH position, Reimold and his -6.8 UZR in left field should fit nicely into the slot. The poor UZR has made him worth just 0.3 WAR.
Elvis Andrus: Offensively there isn't much to like about Andrus's game. He's hitting just .256/.315/.346, but does have 19 steals. Defense is his calling card and he is really good at it. With a UZR of 7.0, Andrus has arguably been the AL's best defensive short stop. With Omar Vizquel as his mentor, Andrus should learn a few tricks that should keep him a top the UZR leaderboard for years to come. His 1.5 WAR puts him in my competition.
Andrew Bailey: An All-Star, Bailey has been arguably one of the AL's best relief aces this year. Working as "closer" for the A's, Bailey has notched 10 saves to go with his 2.06 ERA/2.69 FIP. Bailey has been a K machine amassing 66 strikeouts in 56.2 innings. His 10.48 is among the AL's best and his 1.5 WAR is 4^th best for AL relief pitchers.
Ricky Romero: Better known to Rays fans as "Canada" for his 8 IP, 0 ER performance against Tampa Bay on Canada Day. In back to back starts, Romero held both defending league champs scoreless over 15 innings. Overall, Romero is 8-4 with a 3.44 ERA, however, his 4.48 FIP suggests that Romero hasn't been that good. His 1.98 K/BB is meh and he has allowed 13 home runs in 96 innings of work. Despite the average K/BB and high home run total, he was racked up 1.3 WAR.
Josh Outman: One of three A's on my list, Outman's numbers are much like Romero's. He carries an above average 3.48 ERA, but his FIP is 4.32. Also like Romero, his HR/9 is near 1.2. He has allowed nine bombs in 67.1 innings. He is nearly the 1 WAR mark.
Brad Bergesen: The Rays roughed up Bergesen for four runs off nine hits in 5.2 innings back in May. Since then he has flown under the radar as one of the better rookies in the league. Overall, he is 6-5 with a 3.56 ERA. His FIP of 4.16 is better than Romero's, Outman, and Niemann. His 2.0 WAR is also better than names like Cole Hamels and Yovani Gallardo.
Brett Anderson: 5-8 4.32 ERA isn't likely to draw much attention, but Anderson has really turned it up as of late. In his last 27.2 innings, he carries a 1.30 ERA/1.78 FIP. He has struck out 25 batters in those 27.2 innings and owns a K/BB of 5.00 over his last four starts. His overall FIP is 4.07 and he has earned a 1.7 WAR to date.
Jeff Niemann: Finally, we get to our own "Big Nyquil." Niemann leads the Rays starters in wins and ERA. Again, we know better to look at just wins and ERA, but a lot of the voters do not know this. Overall, Niemann's 4.23 FIP is pretty good, but his 5.33 K/9 and 1.55 K/BB are weak. After giving up nine home runs in his first 33.2 innings, he has given zero home runs over his last nine starts (66 innings). In the past 30 days, Niemann has gone 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA, 2.72 FIP. His two shutouts this season ties Niemann with several others for the most in the majors.

If I had to pick a rookie of the year right now, I'd go with Bailey slightly ahead of Gardner. Bailey's numbers are stellar across the board, however a knee injury may slow him down a bit. Andrus and Gardner have been fantastic defenders, but Gardner has been superior offensively. I do like Brett Anderson and his mid summer charge. However, we all know voters aren't going to look at WAR, FIP, wOBA and things of that nature. If Niemann continues to pitch the way he has over the past month, and racks up 14 or 15 wins with a sub 4 ERA, the voters may give us back to back rookie of the year winners.

Do the Jays Have the First Half AL Rookie of the Year?

Tom Dakers — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:14:47 -0000

Before the season started, I figured the Jays had a good shot at having the Rookie of the Year because I thought Travis Snider would have a great season. Shows what I know. But even without him the Jays have two strong candidates for first half Rookie of the Year in April's AL Rookie of the Month Scott Richmond and Ricky Romero. So I thought I'd take a look at who have been the top rookies to this point in the season.

Of the everyday players, I think there are only 3 rookies worthy of mention:

Brett Gardner Yankees VORP 11.7 .286/.357/.421. Gardner won the Yankee's center field job out of spring training. He's played in 66 games, has 3 homers, 4 triples, 17 steals and driven in 13 and he covers a lot of ground in CF.

Nolan Reimold Orioles VORP 8.7 .286/.371/.540. Nolan was called up to the Orioles in the middle of May and has played almost every day since. He's played 40 games, has 9 homers and 20 RBI.

Elvis Andrus Rangers VORP 7.8 .264/.324/.378. Andrus value has been mostly with the glove, he's a huge improvement over Michael Young at SS and is a big reason for the improvement in the Texas team defense. He has played 63 game, with 3 homer, 5 triples, 14 RBI and 11 steals.

There are a lot more rookie pitchers in the AL that are having a good season up till this point:

Ricky Romero Blue Jays VORP 18.7, 3.20, 5-3. If it wasn't for the injury I think Romero would easily be the first half Rookie of the Year. Even with the injury he has the highest VORP of any rookie. He's had 10 starts, 64.2 innings,a WHIP of 1.268 and has struck out 7.5/9 innings.

Brad Bergesen Orioles VORP 17.6, 3.76, 5-2. Bergesen has been has been one of the few bright lights in the Orioles pitching staff. He's made 13 starts, 83.2 innings and a WHIP of 1.219.

Andrew Bailey A's VORP 17.5, 2.14, 4-1. Bailey has done a great job as closer for the A's. He has 8 saves, pitched 46.1 innings in 35 games and has a 1.014 WHIP. He has stuck out 10.5/9 innings.

Rick Porcello Tigers VORP 17.2, 3.55, 8-4. We got to see Porcello's first start, and we thumped him, in a game that was also Ricky Romero's first start and first win. Unfortunately RoY voters would look at the 8 wins and vote for him. He's made 14 starts, 78.2 innings and a 1.360 WHIP.

Scott Richmond Blue Jays VORP 16.1, 6-4, 3.68. Richmond got the April AL Rookie of the Month award. You've all heard the story enough but he's been better than the Jays could have hoped for. He's made 12 starts and 3 relief appearances for us pitching 78.1 innings and a 1.162 WHIP. He's also striking out 7.4/9 innings.

Josh Outman A's VORP 12.9, 4-1, 3.48. Still the best last name for a pitch in the league. He's made 12 starts and 2 relief appearances, 67.1 innings, a 1.158 WHIP and 7.1 strikeouts/9 innings.

Trevor Cahill A's VORP 10.5, 5-6, 4.23. Cahill leads all rookies with 16 starts (no one in baseball has more starts), he's thrown 89.1 innings and has a 1.388 WHIP.

I know if Rookie of the Year voters were voting at this point they would likely pick Rick Porcello or maybe the Yankee Gardner or some would over-rate his defense and pick Andrus. Me? I'd take Ricky Romero. But then I'm biased. You'd have to guess, at this point, that Romero and Richmond have as much a chance as anyone to be the Rookie of the Year if they can keep it up in the second half.

Poll

Who would you say is Rookie of the Year to this point in the season?

Brett Gardner

9 votes

Nolan Reimold

10 votes

Elvis Andrus

7 votes

Ricky Romero

110 votes

Brad Bergesen

7 votes

Andrew Bailey

14 votes

Rick Porcello

30 votes

Scott Richmond

28 votes

Josh Outman

1 votes

Trevor Cahill

0 votes

Someone else? Let us know who.

2 votes

218 votes | Poll has closed

It's reunion time in Oakland

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 18:01:32 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Arguably the two most dangerous Athletic bats are former Rockies. But neither have been Oakland's best hitter to date.

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The storyline of this series goes without saying. It is MLB's only primary green team vs. the only team that wears purple. Oh wait - we don't even wear purple anymore. Right - that whole Matt Holliday/Carlos Gonzalez/Huston Street bit.

There's not a whole lot to say on that front. It will be the first time the trio play their former team - more of an event for Holliday and Street, who were both celebrated for years as premium players for their former clubs. Street has become a solid if not fantastic closer while Gonzalez furthers his reputation as a possible AAAA player.

As for Holliday, he is still working uphill from that terrible start. His wOBA is lower than every year in his career, including his rookie year, and his OPS+ only exceeds that same 2004 campaign. So it's not JUST being away from Coors. His OPS has not reached .900 and his average have not reached .300 once this season. He is currently on an 18-game, 64-AB homerless drought. He has actually had a worse offensive season than the Rockies' fifth outfielder if you compare Fangraphs offensive value.

Oakland got off to a miserably sluggish start like Holliday - and the Rockies. On June 1, the A's were actually one half game worse (19-30) than Colorado (20-30), but like the Rockies, June brought a bit of a surge. Bob Geren's club reeled off seven straight at the beginning of June to bring them within four games of .500, but they have lost 10 of their last 15 to drop back to earth.

The Rockies last played the Athletics June 18-20, 2006, when they outscored the A's 15-3 at Coors Field. However they haven't played in Oakland since being swept in 2001. In fact, the Rockies won their first ever game in the Coliseum in 1997 thanks to a dominant start by Roger Bailey, yet they have lost all seven games there since. The A's are only 3-8 at Coors Field though, so it evens out to a 9-10 Rockies record all-time vs. Oakland.

Colorado is now 8-4 in interleague play; Oakland is just 5-10 with a modest 17-17 overall home record.

The Rockies absolutely must win this series against an inferior team. After dropping a series in Anaheim in which they outscored the Angels, they can't afford to head to Dodger Stadium needing a sweep for a winning road trip.

Athletics Nation is Oakland's SBNation blog, actually the oldest among us all. In case you missed it in the offseason, here's a classic view on the Matt Holliday trade from AN from January.

Oakland Athletics (31-40, L2, 4th, 8.0 GB)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum

The Bats: D-

Bob Geren has toyed with the lineup to a great degree trying to spark some offense. Suzuki could bat second, pushing Cust, Holliday and Giambi down one spot. OFRajai Davis (.240/.309/.340), C Landon Powell (.182/.258/.364) and IF's Daric Barton (1-for-14, 2B) and Nomar Garciaparra (.254/.274/.390) fill out the bench.

This is my best guess on the lineup, which is just outright terrible (the guess and the lineup):

LINEUP

Avg

HR

RBI

OBP

SLG

wOBA

Adam Kennedy - 2B
.298

6

24

.368

.474

.369

Jack Cust - RF
.227

13

37

.313

.421

.323

Matt Holliday - LF
.269

8

39

.367

.423

.352

Jason Giambi - DH
.205

10

37

.341

.384

.326

Kurt Suzuki - C
.278

4

27

.325

.400

.320

Orlando Cabrera - SS
.243

2

25

.289

.313

.264

Bobby Crosby - 1B
.190

3

17

.291

.306

.275

Ryan Sweeney - CF
.254

2

18

.315

.320

.289

Jack Hannahan - 3B
.191

1

8

.273

.304

.262

That lineup features your worst offensive 3B and 1B in MLB, plus the 2nd worst shortstop, only to 2007 NL MVP (*cough cough*) Jimmy Rollins. The Rockies can field a lineup with a better offensive player at all nine positions (even left field!) except second base - by wOBA anyway. Speaking of which, utilizing that, this lineup has two solid above average hitters (Kennedy and Holliday), three a bit below average (Giambi, Cust and Suzuki), one very below average (Sweeney) and three don't belong on the field, let alone an MLB starting lineup (Cabrera, Crosby, Hannahan).

Overall, the Athletics have the lowest batting average in the majors (about Torrealba level), the 6th least runs scored, 6th least HR, and are dead last in wOBA at .299. I know I know, sample size. But I can't resist pointing out their team wOBA is 8 points worse than Ubaldo Jimenez'.

Should we treat their lineup like nine Ubaldo's? Obviously not. They get a significant disadvantage playing at the Coliseum, but still, their roster OPS+ is just 82, worse than every Rockie except Quintanilla, Gonzalez and Atkins. Any way you slice it, this is a terrible offense. Those big offseason additions of Cabrera, Holliday, Giambi and Garciaparra have done very little.

The Arms: C+

The Rockies draw the top two Oakland's starters. Gone are the days of the big three, but Dallas Braden and Trevor Cahill are still solid young arms with upside. Brett Anderson's scheduled start tonight has been pushed to Monday due to biceps inflammation, so Braden and Cahill will each move up a day; both have an ERA+ of over 112. Vin Mazzaro moves into Sunday's spot - the 22 year old righty has been impressive in five starts this season. Rookie Andrew Bailey has stepped in to be a dominant closer in place of Brad Ziegler, who still gets an opportunity now and again.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Andrew Bailey	4-1	2.23	1.04	50	18

Overall, the club has an 97 ERA+, which is a tick below average, but some of the deadweight pulling that stat down are not on the roster or won't be starting in the series.

The team is 13th in ERA (13th for starters, 15th for relievers) and 11th in FIP (15th and 2nd), so despite lacking big names, the Athletics continue to put forth an above average staff. Other arms Bob Geren leans on in the pen include Michael Wuertz, Russ Springer, Santiago Casilla, and Craig Breslow.

The D: C-

The A's have a UZR/150 rating at 1.6, slightly better than average. They 50 errors (8th in MLB) and are 8th worst in fielding percentage. That washes out to a slightly below average defense.

The Ballpark: Pitching Park

The multi-year park factor is 93, giving a pitching advantage over the last few years equivalent to the offensive advantage at Coors the last few years. This year, it is at 97, mirroring Coors' migration to average, so it is still as much of a pitching park as Coors is a hitting park this year.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 8:05 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Hammel	4-3	4.41	1.50	46	17

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Dallas Braden	5-6	3.26	1.29	62	25

Saturday, June 27, 7:05 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	3-7	5.85	1.51	82	36

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Trevor Cahill	5-5	3.68	1.34	41	33

Sunday, June 24, 2:05 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	7-3	4.00	1.33	46	30

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Vin Mazzaro	2-2	2.56	1.07	20	8

Dallas Braden and Trevor Cahill have each thrown 7 consecutive quality starts, though Oakland is only 7-7 in those games. Vin Mazzaro has four QS's in his five starts this season - in his only non-quality start, he allowed four runs to just miss the qualification. Andrew Bailey has been unscored upon in 10 of his last 11 outings. Ryan Sweeney is 6 for his last 17 and Orlando Cabrera has a .855 OPS in his last 6 games.

Matt Holliday is 12 for his last 58 (8 singles and 4 doubles) for a .208 average since June 7. He only has two more home runs than Adam Kennedy this season. Jack Cust is only 4 for his last 24, Bobby Crosby just 1-for-10 and Jason Giambi has scratched out just three hits in his last 15 trips.

Pitcher Josh Outman (best name for a pitcher ever) is on the 15-day DL with an elbow injury. Dan Giese (elbow) is on the 60-day DL, as are four very prominant names on the roster: 3B Eric Chavez (back), 2B Mark Ellis (calf), and pitchers Joey Devine (elbow) and Justin Duchsherer (elbow). The elbow epidemic in Oakland is killing them.

Poll

How will be rebound from consecutive losses in Anaheim?

We won't. This team is fragile and is affected by streaks too much in both directions. We'll struggle to hit in the Coliseum and get swept.

3 votes

The doubt is there, and we manage to win just one game, probably while outscoring Oakland for the series

11 votes

A solid road series win against a mediocre home team and terrible offense sounds reasonable

53 votes

Matt Holliday doesn't get the Monforts' green, but he does match his uni with envy after watching his former club sweep his struggling team.

20 votes

87 votes | Poll has closed

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 14:54:59 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

5 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Carlos Gomez can't come up with a double, hit by Milwaukee Brewers' Jason Kendall, as Carlos Villanueva (12) and Mark DiFelice (45) react in the bullpen during the eighth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, June 24, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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Some things to read while making my breakfast.

In possibly the best news of the day, Braden Looper does not expect to miss a start after taking a line drive off his pitching arm in last night's game. Tom H. isn't as optimistic. I'm assuming we'll get another update in a day or two.

The Brewers could hardly afford another injury to a starter, as Mike Burns is already being pressed into service today and Seth McClung will start Saturday. If Looper can't make his start, the Brewers will likely have no choice but to recall Manny Parra from AAA. CZWief is starting to compare this year's rotation to the disaster that was 2002.

Speaking of today's game, the Brewers will likely face Denard Span, who the Twins are expected to activate, but will not face Nick Punto, who has been sent home to have his ribs examined.

Beyond the Box Score has Pitch F/x leaderboards. Several Brewers make appearances, but the most interesting stat belongs to Yovani Gallardo. Opposing hitters are swinging at just 40% of his pitches, the second lowest percentage in all of baseball.

Wow, are we ever awash in minor league notes today:

2009 first round pick Eric Arnett had quite the day yesterday. First, he ate at Pizza Hut, then he allowed a run on a hit, two walks and an HBP in one inning of work in his pro debut for Helena, and was later profiled in the Helena Independent Record. (h/t Brew Crew Online)
Alcides Escobar continues to draw notice in AAA. Jason Grey of ESPN listed Escobar as one of two prospects who may make a position switch to accelerate their rise to the majors. Matt Patterson of the Oklahoman profiled Escobar before a recent game against the RedHawks.
Adam McCalvy has a profile of Zach Braddock, who the Brewers recently promoted to AA. Braddock is working to overcome bipolar disorder.
The 2009 Nashville Sounds are a huge improvement over their 2008 counterpart and their stadium underwent some offseason improvement, but At The Old Ball Game notes that the Sounds are still averaging just 4,067 fans per game, the second lowest total in the Pacific Coast League.
New fan favorite Cameron Garfield continues to draw attention: Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com says his 5-for-5, 3 RBI debut for Helena was easily the best debut so far.
Brewer 43rd round pick Kyle Dhanani was profiled in his hometown paper. The reporter went the extra mile by calling his mom for the "analysis" quote.
The Brewers also signed an undrafted free agent, pitcher Andrew Dunn of Southern Illinois University.
While those two players begin their professional careers, Chris Duffy might be ending his. He's been placed on the inactive list in Nashville. Apparently he left the team weeks ago for the birth of his child, and never returned.

Looking for another flooding update? Tom H. has you covered with notes on the DOT's reaction and continuing work to determine the cost of the damage.

Beyond the Box Score dropped the Brewers from 16th to 17th in their most recent Power Rankings, but that's still good enough for first place in the Central.

Around the league:

A's: Placed Josh Outman on the DL with an elbow sprain.
Braves: Kenshin Kawakami left last night's start after taking a line drive off his neck, but is not expected to miss a start.
Cubs: Placed Reed Johnson on the DL with back issues.
Indians: Acquired reliever Jose Veras from the Yankees for cash.
Marlins: Placed closer Matt Lindstrom on the DL with an elbow sprain.
Mets: Designated lefty Jon Switzer for assignment.
Nationals: Designated Kip Wells for assignment.
Yankees: Designated Angel Berroa for assignment.

There are also two former Brewer notes to pass along today: Baseball America notes that the Twins released Ben Hendrickson, and Bill Ladson of Nationals.com reports Ronnie Belliard is considering retiring after the season. Belliard has picked up just two at-bats since June 10.

Just when you thought it was safe to go outside, the Oklahoma City RedHawks have activated Orlando Hernandez to throw the banana.

I'm guessing there are probably a few people reading this site who consistently watch Brewer games, right? Any of you watch closely enough to identify which Brewers wear protection on their elbows? If you do, Plunk Everyone could use your help.

The movie is probably dead now so it's all a moot point, but the entire script for the Moneyball movie is available online, if you're interested. Sam Miller of the OC Register says the script "sort of works."

If you currently have a crappy sales job (selling sand in the desert, for example) and you're looking for a slightly easier gig, maybe you should join the Marlins Community Sales Force.

Oh, and today is the second anniversary of Manny Parra's AAA perfect game.

Drink up.

A's Outlast Pads 7-5; Outman Out Early With Injury

67MARQUEZ — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 05:52:22 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

6 months ago: Oakland Athletics' Orlando Cabrera hits a two-run double to left centerfield to give the Athletics the lead against the San Diego Padres in an interleague baseball game Friday, June 19, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

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A's 7, Padres 5

I told myself tonight at dinner- well, my dog had a date so, yeah- that rather than focus on the ineptitude of the A's offense, I was going to sit back and revel in the awesomeness that has been Josh Outman this season.

Oops.

Outman's evening was cut short due to soreness in his left arm; he left after facing four batters in the second inning. Meanwhile the A's battled back from behind twice, the second time with a three-run eighth to outlast the Padres.

Orlando Cabrera struck the big blow, a two-out double over the head of Chase Headley to score the tying and go-ahead runs.

Yeah, you read that right.

It was Headley who started the scoring some seven hours ago (feels like it) with a homerun leading off the second. Something in Outman's delivery prompted a visit from Bob Geren and trainer Stephen Sayles. Three batters later, they emerged again, this time to remove Outman.

Edgar Gonzalez replaced him, which gave fans a chance to delight in a showdown between the A's pitcher and the Padre right-fielder with the same name. The hurler not only won both battles, he out-hit the other Gonzalez tonight 2-0.

After the Padres went up 2-love in the third, Oakland struck for three in the third as San Diego starter Wade LeBlanc struggled to find home plate. Kurt Suzuki got things going with a base hit (the first of three), followed by a walk to Jack Cust and Matt Holliday to load the bases. LeBlanc then LePlunked Jason Giambi to score Suzuki. What followed may never happen again: back-to-back sac flies by Cabrera and Bobby Crosby to put the A's in front.

An error by Rajai Davis in the bottom half gave the lead right back, and San Diego regained the lead with a pair in the sixth off Russ Springer (the runs were charged to Gonzalez).

The A's began their comeback on a one-out single by Suzuki. After Cust lined out, Holliday walked. Giambi came through with his second hit of the night to drive in Suzuki, setting up Cabrera to play hero.

The A's added a run in the ninth on an RBI-knock by Mr. Suzuki.

Michael Wuertz (who got the win), Craig Breslow, and Andrew Bailey (seventh save) shut down the Padres from the stretch on, surviving a shaky eighth inning to nail down the victory.

A's Spend 7th Inning Chasing Baseball To No Avail

Nico — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 04:51:03 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Jack Cust fondles Kurt Suzuki's ass as Suzuki tries to flag down a nearby sexual harassment lawyer.

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At the stretch it was a tidy 2-2 pitcher's duel. Then in the bottom of the 7th, the A's defense reminded me of when I get crack an egg into a bowl and a little piece of the shell gets into the egg white and every time I think I've got it the shell squirts away and eventually I decide "I didn't really want an omelet anyway" and get out the Haagen Daas. Oh right, the baseball game.

So for the first 6 innings, it was Bengie Molina's 2-run HR in the 1st, soon after which Josh Outman settled down to retire 14 in a row. The A's got one back on Hannahan's leadoff triple in the 3rd, followed by two weak dribblers back to the mound and an Adam Kennedy single. They got the other back on Kurt Suzuki's HR in the 5th.

Then came the bottom of the 7th. It started with Bengie Molina lining a 3-2 pitch into the left-field corner, beginning a game of pinball with Matt Holliday playing the part of the flippers. The ball played keepaway long enough from Holliday - or Holliday from it - that Molina, whose speed is measured not by a stopwatch but rather by a calendar, legged out a double. Score one for continental drift. Then Pablo Sandoval, on an 0-2 pitch, hit a high, lazy and shallow pop fly to right field. Kennedy drifted back, Cust charged, and Crosby (playing at 1B) ran like a half crazed bull in Pamplona, half terrified elephant on amphetamines, and distracted Cust just long enough to ensure the ball would drop. I believe Cust then caught Crosby, but no out was awarded. Michael Wuertz was summoned, Juan Uribe poked the first pitch to right for a hit, and the 3-run rally was on.

What I want to say about that sequence of hitters is that while young pitchers need to throw strikes, Outman in particular needs to throw strikes, and it's terrific that Outman did not issue a walk in his 6+ innings, the trio of Molina, Sandoval, Uribe have a combined 540 ABs so far this season and 17 walks. Maybe the 3-2 pitch to Molina didn't have to be a hitter's pitch? Maybe you bounce an 0-2 pitch to Sandoval? Maybe your first pitch to Uribe isn't in the strike zone? Food for thought.

Speaking of food, I need ~~an omelet~~ a tub of Haagen Daas. G'nite all.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Adam Kennedy - 2B	.298	6	24	.368	.474	.369
Jack Cust - RF	.227	13	37	.313	.421	.323
Matt Holliday - LF	.269	8	39	.367	.423	.352
Jason Giambi - DH	.205	10	37	.341	.384	.326
Kurt Suzuki - C	.278	4	27	.325	.400	.320
Orlando Cabrera - SS	.243	2	25	.289	.313	.264
Bobby Crosby - 1B	.190	3	17	.291	.306	.275
Ryan Sweeney - CF	.254	2	18	.315	.320	.289
Jack Hannahan - 3B	.191	1	8	.273	.304	.262