SB Nation - Jason Donald

Phillies Top 10 Stories of 2009: No. 10 -- Improvement on the Farm

WholeCamels — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 14:38:45 -0000

First in a series of ten (seriously!) articles on the 2009 Phillies.

As recently as 2005, the Phillies farm system had the worst minor league winning percentage in all of professional baseball. Organizational winning percentage may not be the best way to judge system strength, but you get the idea. Things have turned around since then. So much so, that the organization has been able to unload six of their top ten prospects (Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp) at the deadline for pitching help, and they still have one of the best farm systems in baseball.

The biggest reason? The system's top three prospects -- RHP Kyle Drabek, and outfielders Michael Taylor and Domonic Brown. The three guys who were too good to trade for Roy Halladay.

More after the jump...

Drabek, coming off Tommy John surgery, posted a 3.19 ERA with 150 strikeouts and just 50 walks in 158 innings pitched between Class A Clearwater and Double-A Reading. Drabek only turns 22 early next month. The Phillies shut Drabek down in August when he led the minors in innings pitched; a judicious decision, considering his recent arm surgery. He projects as a #2 starter in the majors, but will likely spend all of 2010 in Double-A and Triple-A, barring disaster in Philadelphia.

Michael Taylor posted a combined .320/.395/.549 line between Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley, with 20 home runs. An extremely strong contact hitter (just 70 strikeouts) with a line-drive swing, the 6'6", 250 pound outfielder looks to force his way into the big leagues as soon as mid 2010 -- whether it's with the Phillies or another team remains to be seen. He'll be 24 next season, so he's just about "done."

Domonic Brown has emerged as the organization's top prospect. An exciting mix of tools and skills, Brown went .299/.377/.504 mostly between Clearwater and Reading in his age 21 season. Brown will need at least one more full year in the minors and will probably start 2010 in Reading.

Aside from those three, there's a great deal of organizational depth, particularly among the pitchers -- lower level guys with high upside like Trevor May and Brody Colvin, and future reliever types like Joe Savery, Mike Stutes and Vance Worley, not to mention Justin DeFratus, Austin Hyatt, Jonathan Pettibone, Matt Way, etc. etc. You get the idea. Grab a bunch of nice arms, and hope to hit on a couple of them. It's as good a strategy as any. Oh, and Scott Mathieson is hitting the mid to upper 90s again.

Among the position players, catcher Travis D'Arnaud and outfielder Anthony Gose lead the non-Taylor/Brown positional prospects, but both are still at least a few years away.

Of course there are weaknesses -- no real third base or middle infield prospects to speak of (unless Freddy Galvis can actually figure out how to hit a little) -- and a disconcerting tendency to go for toolsy outfielder types with high picks. But in 2009, the Phillies farm system proved beyond any doubt that it belongs in the top third in MLB. Quite a change from a few years ago, when it was one of the very worst.

News and Notes

Ryan — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 14:01:52 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

The Omar! watch continues.

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Like last year, the Indians made most of their major moves during the season, not after it. Still, there are some moves left to made. First, there's the utility infielder spot...

Would Cleveland Indians be "high-profile" enough for Omar Vizquel to return? | cleveland.com
Bringing Omar! back to be a backup infielder does make some sense. There will be a small but tangible PR boost from the signing, and going on 43, Vizquel can still play decent defense. Bringing Jamey Carroll back would be better move, but he'll be more difficult to sign.

Tribe could use Vizquel's services again | indians.com
Another Omar! article, this time from Anthony Castrovince. He mentions a possible strategic downside to having Vizquel on ths club:

For one, it's expected that if the Indians do decide to pursue a veteran utility player in free agency, they'll need him to spell Valbuena at second base against left-handed pitching, and that's not exactly Vizquel's area of expertise. The switch-hitter batted .485 in just 35 plate appearances against lefties in '09, but he's a career .255 hitter against left-handers.

I'd like to see Valbuena get some at-bats against left-handers next year. He's only had 48 career plate appearances against southpaws, so that's not much to go on. And the Indians will be looking at Jason Donald as well, so I don't think this should prevent the Indians from bringing in Vizquel.

The major problem is his age. He's going to be 43 in April, and as well as he's kept in shape over the years, at some point he's going to break down.

Documentary makes way for the Choo Choo train | 아시아경제
Korean network MBC has produced a documentary about Shin-Soo Choo titled "Choo Shin-Soo, Hitting Major League At Last". This is a Q&A (in English) with Kim Sae-byul, the producer of the program. A sample:

Q: In that sense, you might need to put in some explanation for words such as "five-tool player" that the team’s coaching staff mentions.

Kim: I’m going to put them in subtitles. Because I didn’t really know what it meant. I first heard about the term "five-tool" when I was making this program. We are going to put in subtitles for everything the interviewee says and also for terminology that might need explaining. And we are going to put in all the dates and locations for footage of the games.

A Tale of Two Lefties: Clifton Phifer Lee v. Carsten Charles Sabathia

David S. Cohen — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:41:16 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

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Tomorrow night, Cliff Lee will face CC Sabathia in Game 1 of the 2009 World Series. It's possible that the two lefties will face each other two more times over the course of the possible seven game series, as each manager has indicated that his ace lefty could pitch Games 1, 4, and 7 (if necessary).

The two aces share a lot in common besides both being lefties. Both were initially drafted in the 1998 amateur draft, Sabathia by the Indians and Lee by the Orioles. Sabathia was a first round pick who quickly signed. Lee, a twentieth round pick, did not sign, re-entering the draft in 2000 when he was drafted by the Expos. In 2002, before he had reached the majors, he was traded to the Indians as part of a package in the Bartolo Colon deadline deal.

Until 2008, both Lee and Sabathia spent their major league careers as Indians, with Sabathia being the better pitcher, although not by much. From 2001 through mid-2008, Sabathia was 106-71 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 116 ERA+ over 1528 innings. From 2002 through mid-2009, Lee was 83-48 for the Indians with a 4.01 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 110 ERA+ over 1117 innings.

Even though Sabathia had the better career as an Indian, Lee's peak was better. The two won back-to-back Cy Young Awards as Indians, but Lee had the better Cy Young season. In 2007, Sabathia went 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA over 241 innings. His ERA+ was 143 and his WARP3 was 7.2. In Lee's 2008 Cy Young season, he went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA over 223.1 innings. His ERA+ was 175 with a WARP3 of 8.6.

Both Sabathia and Lee were traded in blockbuster mid-season trades that netted the Indians a good portion of a future lineup and rotation. The Indians got Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, and Zach Jackson from the Brewers for Sabathia in July 2008. A year later, they got Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Lou Marson, and Jason Donald from the Phillies for Lee. Both players were then key cogs in getting their new team to the post-season, with Sabathia coming in fifth place in the NL Cy Young voting for his half-year of work for the Brewers and Cliff Lee anchoring an until-then shaky Phillies rotation in the second half of their third-in-a-row NL East championship season.

Both players have been excellent so far this post-season. They've both pitched 3 games, allowed 4 runs, and have a 20:3 strikeout to walk ratio. The big difference, if you can call it big, is that Lee has pitched more innings (24.1 to Sabathia's 22.2), and has allowed fewer earned runs (2 to Sabathia's 3). Thus, Lee has an eye-popping 0.74 ERA compared to Sabathia's merely gaudy 1.19 ERA.

So what can we expect from these two in this series? Both have faltered in their career against the opposing team. In 9 career starts, Lee has a 4-4 record against the Yankees, posting a 5.02 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 39:18 strikeout to walk ratio. In 4 career starts against the Phillies (including the post-season), Sabathia has a 1-2 record with a 5.55 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 17:8 strikeout to walk ratio.

Looking to splits, both pitchers have been better against right-handed hitters over their entire careers, although not drastically so. For Sabathia, he has given up a .694 OPS to righties and .647 OPS to lefties. For Lee, he has given up a .733 OPS to righties and .714 to lefties. This year, however, it has been much more drastic for both pitchers. For Sabathia, .681 for righties and .560 for lefties. For Lee, .734 for righties and .583 for lefties. Both teams' lefties should struggle against these pitchers.

At the new Yankee Stadium, both pitchers have done well this year, although with Cliff Lee having a very small sample size, of course. Sabathia pitched 15 games during the regular season and had a 3.17 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Lee won the 1 game he pitched there this year, letting up 1 earned run in 6 innings, for a 1.50 ERA but a 1.67 WHIP. At CBP, Lee was 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. ~~Sabathia hasn't pitched in Philadelphia yet in his career.~~ [EDIT: Sabathia has pitched one post-season game at CBP and no regular season games. In that one game, he took the loss and had a 12.27 ERA, 3+ WHIP, and a 5:4 strikeout to walk ratio. Clearly not good at all, the "small sample size" bell should be ringing loud and clear.]

Finally, how have the two done against the individual hitters in the opposing lineups? Having been in the AL, Lee has a much longer track record against the Yankees' hitters and many have fared very well against him. Only Raul Ibanez has seen Sabathia a significant number of times, although in limited at-bats the top of the Phillies lineup has dominated Sabathia. (The numbers here include post-season plate appearances.)

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Victorino	10	0.556	0.600	1.000	1.600
Rollins	14	0.385	0.429	0.769	1.198
Ibanez	43	0.275	0.326	0.525	0.851
Ruiz	5	0.400	0.400	0.400	0.800
Howard	9	0.333	0.333	0.444	0.777
Werth	8	0.250	0.250	0.500	0.750
Francisco	6	0.200	0.333	0.400	0.733
Feliz	8	0.125	0.125	0.250	0.375
Utley	6	0.000	0.167	0.000	0.167

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Rodriguez	20	0.333	0.450	0.733	1.183
Teixeira	26	0.391	0.462	0.696	1.158
Jeter	30	0.407	0.467	0.519	0.986
Posada	22	0.286	0.273	0.667	0.940
Swisher	24	0.333	0.458	0.444	0.902
Cabrera	12	0.273	0.333	0.545	0.878
Matsui	19	0.294	0.368	0.412	0.780
Cano	19	0.222	0.263	0.222	0.485
Damon	23	0.091	0.130	0.091	0.221

With the track record for these two aces being so close, the best prediction is that the games they pitch should be close battles, at least as long as the starters stay in the game.

The only clear loser here is the Cleveland Indians.

How Good Are Josh Bell and Steven Johnson?

Brendan Scolari — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 19:15:39 -0000

via cdn.bleacherreport.com

Since the Dodgers acquired set-up man George Sherrill from the Orioles for Josh Bell and Steven Johnson there has been quite a bit of talk over whether the Dodgers gave up too much for him. Sherrill has done his part since coming to L.A., pitching 2.1 scoreless innings with 5 strike outs. But just how good are Josh Bell and Steven Johnson? And how did the Dodgers package compare to the one the Phillies dealt to get Cliff Lee? Luckily, Marc Hulet of Fangraphs has been making a list of the 35 best prospects dealt at the trading deadline.

The top prospect on the list is third baseman Brett Wallace, the centerpiece of the A's haul in return for Matt Holliday. In the second spot there's Aaron Poreda, who was one of the headliners in the Jake Peavy deal. And then in third we have Dodger prospect Josh Bell, one of the players traded for Sherrill. Here's what Hulet has to say about Bell:

Prior to the 2009 season, Bell’s pro career could have been categorized as "promising" but he had yet to put everything together. The former fourth round pick out of a Florida high school has improved by leaps and bounds this season despite making the big jump from high-A to double-A. He also missed more than half of the year in 2008 due to injuries. On the ‘09 season, Bell is currently hitting .296/.386/.494 with 11 homers in 334 at-bats. The 22-year-old has also banged out 30 doubles. Bell’s approach at the plate has certainly improved. After averaging a walk rate of about 8.6 BB% in his first two seasons, that number has improved to about 13.6 BB% in the past two years. His strikeout rate is also down almost 9% over 2008 (29.9 to 21.0 K%). If the Orioles club can find a one-year stopgap for the hot corner in 2010, Bell should be ready to play full-time at the MLB level in 2011.

Clearly Bell's stock has risen quite a bit since the beginning of the season, enough to make him one of the best propsects traded at the deadline. Bell would have been a good fit to take over third base in 2011 as Casey Blake declines and is forced into a utility role. Although perhaps Blake Dewitt or someone else will be able to fill the role capably.

Anyway, on with the list. Nick Hagadone is #4; Hagadone combined with Justin Masterson to bring Victor Martinez to Beantown. After that we finally get our first Phillie on the list, as Jason Knapp takes the #5 spot. Knapp is a very young pitcher with a very high ceiling, and it sounds like the Indians might have preferred him over someone like Bell according to Hulet:

The Indians were so happy to have the chance to acquire him that the organization took him in the trade even though he was on the disabled list with shoulder fatigue. If Knapp cannot hold up to the rigors of pitching as a starter, he could become a dominating closer with a fastball that creeps up near 100 mph. He also has a power slider and a good changeup.

Obviously Knapp could be really good or could never reach the majors, but maybe the Indians preferred someone like him over the lowered ceiling of Bell.

Tim Alderson is sixth on the list. Alderson was with the Giants until they made the poor decision to trade him straight up for Freddy Sanchez. The we have the next Phillie as Carlos Carrasco takes the #7 spot:

Value-wise, Carrasco peaked as a prospect mid-way through the 2007 season. The right-hander stopped trusting his stuff when he struggled after being promoted to double-A. His formerly plus curveball has regressed to the point where it is an average pitch for him. Carrasco now relies mostly on a low-90s fastball that can touch 95-96 mph and a changeup... With a little more aggression, and if he can regain his plus breaking ball, Carrasco could realize his potential as a No. 2 starter.

Carrasco's ability doesn't quite match his name recognition, but he still has the ability to be a mid-rotation starter at least. He has struggled with the Indians so far though, allowing 9 runs in 13 innings.

Now we scoot down to #9 on the list, catcher Lou Marson. Marson was another piece in the Cliff Lee deal, and here's Hulet's piece on him:

Marson’s value has taken a bit of a hit in 2009. He’s shown that he can consistently hit for average but the right-handed hitter has struggled to hit the ball with authority. Scouts were already knocking the catcher for his lack of power prior to 2009, but his ISO has dropped from .120 in ‘07 to .102 to .076 in ‘09. He’s hit just one homer and 14 doubles this year in 228 at-bats. On the plus side, he continues to get on base via the walk (12.4 BB%) and keeps the strikeouts to a minimum (19.0 K%). With Carlos Santana already established as the catcher of the future in Cleveland, Marson is headed for a back-up role if he’s not traded again.

It does seem a bit odd that the Indians would want Marson as they already have great minor league depth at catcher plus Kelly Shoppach. It could just be an instance of the Indians thinking Marson was undervalued and taking talent over need.

Two spots after Marson is another new Indian, left-handed pitcher Scott Barnes. The Giants traded him to get Ryan Garko, though they probably overpaid. I've seen Barnes at High-A San Jose Giants games and his stuff is pretty impressive. He comes from a three-quarters arm slot but still throws a low 90's heater and a good breaking ball. Three spots after Barnes is the other Dodger prospect dealt in the Sherrill deal, pitcher Steve Johnson:

It’s been a slow climb through the minors for Johnson. The former high school drafted pick has struggled with his command and control throughout his career. He’s also working hard to improve his secondary pitches. Johnson spent the majority of his time in the Dodgers’ system this year at high-A, where he allowed 94 hits in 96.2 innings. He also posted rates of 3.91 BB/9 and 9.50 K/9. Prior to the trade, the right-hander made two double-A starts. His stuff would probably be better coming out of the bullpen (He can occasionally hit 93 mph as a starter), where he could focus on one secondary pitch to go with the heater. His ceiling is that of a set-up man or No. 4 starter.

Johnson is another player whose stock has risen with strong work this year. His ceiling is relatively low though, meaing he won't be an impact player. Johnson has made one start so far with the Orioles and allowed 2 runs in 4 innings with 1 walk and 1 strikeout.

Finally there's Jason Donald, who's all the way down at #20 on the list:

Donald, 24, has followed up his offensive-breakout campaign in 2008 with an injury-filled ‘09 season. An average fielder at shortstop, Donald will likely have to move to second base in the Majors, although the hot corner is an option if he develops more power (which is not expected to happen). He hasn’t looked overly sharp since coming back from his injury.

One might compare Donald to Chin-Lung Hu, although I still think the injuries are hurting his bat more than anything. I'd still take Donald over Johnson, a guy I couldn't see cracking the Dodger rotation, but clearly Hulet doesn't view it that way.

So what do we have? It looks like both the Giants and Dodgers overpaid for the players they got, while the Phillies managed to give up quantity moreso than quality for Cliff Lee. Josh Bell, despite his lack of name-recognition, is maybe the best prospect dealt between the two trades. However, the Phillies package still seems clearly stronger as they have the next three players on the list. Steven Johnson and Jason Donald are the two lower-level prospects dealt, and neither figures to make a big impact at the major league level. The Dodgers probably should have got more for Bell, considering nearly all the prospects ranked around him were dealt for premier players, which Sherrill isn't.

However, Sherrill is a great fit to combat the Phillies in the playoffs, considering Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez are all left-handed. While the Dodgers may have paid too much to acquire him, at least Sherrill can still be a thorn in the Phillies side for the next couple years when the Dodgers will likely be taking them on for a spot in the World Series.

Trade Deadline Reactions

John Sickels — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 21:23:03 -0000

Here is my quick take on the deadline trades. I've written up more specific player summaries for Rotowire subscribers.

Cliff Lee Trade: The Indians picked up Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson for Lee and Generalissimo Ben Francisco. I like this a lot from Philadelphia's perspective, as they avoid trading their three elite prospects Drabek, Taylor, and Brown. Carrasco has a good arm but his track record is so erratic I'm not sure what to think of him. Knapp has a terrific ceiling but has to prove he can stay healthy. I like him a lot, but he's far from a sure thing at this point. Donald and Marson are useful spare parts. The trade adds depth to the Indians system, but nobody here is a Grade A/A-/B+ prospect yet. I'd rate Knapp as a B right now pending more experience.

Freddy Sanchez Trade: Sanchez is a solid player but he's not going to be part of the next good Pirates team, and Alderson might be even if he develops into "just" an inning-eating strike thrower.. I think this one helps both teams...the Giants can use Sanchez for the stretch run, and they are trading from strength given their pitching depth. Good deal here for both clubs.

Balentien to the Reds for Robert Manuel: Balentien hit poorly in Seattle but given his minor league track record I think he should get more chances; certainly Cincinnati will be an easier place to show his power. Manuel is interesting. Scouts don't like him at all, given mediocre stuff, but his statistical track record is very strong and he racks up strikeouts despite a lack of velocity. He could be very useful in the pen. Overall I like this for both teams.

George Sherrill to the Orioles for Josh Bell and Steve Johnson. I've never been a big Sherrill guy, so I think the Orioles did very well here to pick up a couple of prospects for him. Bell is a solid Grade B guy...his home run power is still developing and I'm not sure what position he plays long run, but I like his strike zone judgment and he's young. Johnson doesn't have blazing stuff, but could be a good inning-eater type, perhaps similar to Brad Bergesen down the road. I'd rate him as a Grade B- prospect right now.

Gorzelanny and Grabow from Cubs to Pirates for Hart, Ascanio, and Harrison. The Pirates swap out two more guys not in their long term plans in exchange for two potential middle relievers and a speedy infielder who doesn't have much power. This looks like a wash to me. Gorzelanny is a home town guy for the Cubs and maybe the change of scenery will help revive his career.

Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners to the Tigers for Lucas French and Mauricio Robles. Washburn's ERA is a fluke, but I can understand why the playoff hunting Tigers would prefer him to French at this point...French is even more of a fluke this year than Washburn is, and Washburn has more experience. Robles has an intriguing strikeout rate, but given his small size probably fits more as a reliever in the long run. I'd call this a short term win for the Tigers, but in the long run the Mariners are probably better off, since they got something for a guy who is (in my opinion) having his last hurrah as a good pitcher.

Orlando Cabrera from the Athletics to the Twins for Tyler Ladendorf. This one also makes sense for both teams. The Twins need a middle infielder, and while Cabrera is getting old and hasn't been effective this year, he's better than what they have available right now. Ladendorf is very toolsy but is a long way from being ready to help. Question: should I make this same trade for the Shadow Twins, given that I did draft Ladendorf last year as the real Twins did?

Dodgers trade Claudio Vargas to Brewers for Vinny Rottino: Not exactly a real blockbuster trade, but I think Vargas has more value.

Reds trade Jerry Hairston Jr. to Yankees for Chase Weems: I don't think Weems is going to amount to much. He's young but it doesn't look like he can hit at all. Basically a veteran dump for the Reds.

Braves trade Kotchman to Red Sox for LaRoche: I don't really get why the Braves did this, although sometimes people just make changes for the sake of making changes. LaRoche has more power, but Kotchman has a better glove, is younger, and costs less. Perhaps the Braves are convinced that Freddy Freeman will be ready to play in 2010 and will let LaRoche go as a free agent.

Scott Rolen from Blue Jays to Reds for Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Roenicke, and Zach Stewart.. This looks like a great trade to me, for the Blue Jays. I really don't understand why the Reds did this....Rolen is old, Encarnacion is young, and they gave up two very good pitching prospects as well. It is true that EE's defense at third base is poor, while Rolen's is still good, but the age differential between the two players and giving up the live arms makes no sense to me given that the Reds aren't in the race.

Victor Martinez from the Indians to the Red Sox for Justin Masterson, Bryan Price, and Nick Hagadone. I do understand this one. The Indians have a great young catcher coming up in Carlos Santana, so trading Martinez makes sense.. Masterson looks like a number three sinkerball starter to me, Price has a live arm and could be good in the pen eventually. Hagadone is a breakthrough candidate once he is further down the road for Tommy John. From Boston's perspective, they add another strong veteran bat, but didn't trade any of their truly elite prospects. Win for both teams.

Jake Peavy from the Padres to the White Sox for Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter. One proven excellent (when healthy) starter in exchange for four arms. I like it from San Diego's perspective, given their current situation. Richard can slot into the rotation immediately, and Poreda has a chance to be a closer if his command holds. Russell is an OK middle relief type, while Carter has a live arm and excellent numbers in low-A ball. If Peavy's ankle recovers fast enough he will help the White Sox down the stretch, but I think they gave up quite a bit to get him.

Aaron Thompson from the Marlins to the Nationals for Nick Johnson. Johnson still gets on base at a great clip. Thompson, once a top prospect, has been mediocre since reaching Double-A and looks like a number four starter type now, not anything like an ace. I don't think the Marlins will miss him in particular, so this works for Florida.

Minor League Overview: The Hitters

APV — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 14:25:31 -0000

More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

New Indians catcher, Lou Marson, wondering how Carlos Santana likes his coffee

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Following up on yesterday's look at the pitchers, here is an overview of how the hitters in the Indians system have fared this year. A few breakouts, a few disappointments, but mostly it has been a steady as she goes season so far...

Progress Score Leaders

Carlos Santana: 10.6
Michael Brantley: 8.8
Nick Weglarz: 8.1
Lou Marson: 7.7
Andy Marte: 7.6
Matt LaPorta: 7.4
Lonnie Chisenhall: 6.9
Carlos Rivero: 6.2
Wyatt Toregas: 5.6
John Drennen/Abner Abreu: 5.2

A few surprises, no? First, Carlos Santana, as will become apparent throughout this overview, is in a class by himself. He almost makes you wish we could have signed Casey Blake in the off-season just to trade him back to LA this year. The surprises on this list are because of two things: progress score builds into it a substantial positional component (hence all the catchers, middle infielders and guys who can manage CF), and it works off of OPS adjusted for luck and park effects. Michael Brantley and Carlos Rivero, for example, have both been pretty unlucky on balls in play according to minorleaguesplits.com. In Rivero's case, though, this seems to be a chronic condition and something which would be nice to see reversed at some point. John Drennen has quietly had a solid season. And Marson was clearly just a throw-in from Philly (Jason Donald's 2008 numbers would be good for a 6.3, also).

NET Leaders

Michael Brantley: 54
Carlos Santana: 44
Nick Weglarz: 36
Cord Phelps: 25
Matt McBride: 23
Jose Constanza: 21
Andy Marte: 18
Chris Arnal: 18
Matt LaPorta: 16
Jared Goedert: 14

NET puts a premium on control of the strike zone and speed, so seeing Brantley and Santana on the top of the list (again) shouldn't be surprising. It is somewhat surprising, and a good thing, to see Marte and LaPorta on the list. If we look at last year's numbers for our top prospects, it is striking how the guys NET likes have generally done quite well this season (Santana, Brantley, Wegz, Valbuena, Chisenhall, LaPorta), and the guys NET didn't like (Rivero, Hodges, Mills) have struggled.

Lots more...

OPS Leaders

Andy Marte: 963
Carlos Santana: 935
Jordan Brown: 910
Matt LaPorta: 901
Matt McBride: 857
Nick Weglarz: 855
Abner Abreu: 839
Lonnie Chisenhall: 835
Jared Head: 809
Nate Recknagel: 808

It is nice to see a few of our young guys who were placed somewhat aggressively by the organization, Abreu and Chisenhall, rise the occasion. Compare this list with the adjusted OPS leaders (using minorleaguesplits.com algorithm for luck and park effects).

adjusted OPS Leaders

Carlos Santana: 1039
Andy Marte: 985
Matt LaPorta: 955
Nick Weglarz: 944
Nate Recknagel: 939
Jordan Brown: 881
Lonnie Chisenhall: 880
Matt McBride: 862
Chris Gimenez: 839
Adam Abraham: 821

The top of this list is pretty nice. You might be wondering who Recknagel and Abraham are. They are former teammates from the University of Michigan, both 2008 draftees, and both too old to get excited about while playing in Lake County (Abraham is being converted into a catcher, so he has some excuse, but Recknagel is a no defense all offense guy).

OBP Leaders

Trevor Crowe: 401
Carlos Santana: 398
Nick Weglarz: 389
Lou Marson: 384
Cord Phelps: 380
Matt LaPorta: 378
Jordan Brown: 377
Jose Constanza: 370
Andy Marte: 369
Mickey Hall: 366

So this is what Trevor Crowe is supposed to do...To weed out the guys who are getting buy on high batting average, here are the walk-rate leaders.

BB/PA (%) Leaders

Mickey Hall: 18.7
Nick Weglarz: 17.4
Cord Phelps: 16.4
Carlos Santana: 16.4
Tim Fedroff: 14.3
Trevor Crowe: 14.3
Karexon Sanchez: 13.2
Matt Brown: 12.7
Lou Marson: 12.7
Jose Constanza/Lucas Montero: 11.4

This list has a bunch of guys who are probably old for their level and finding success at the top of the order. It is nice to see 2008 draftees Phelps and Fedroff doing something well, though. I was surprised to see Karexon Sanchez on this list, only because I think of him more as a massive strikeout guy (25.6%) than a plate discipline guy.

K/PA (%) Leaders

Bo Greenwell: 8.1
Chris Arnal: 8.9
Michael Brantley: 9.5
Matt McBride: 11.3
Niuman Romero: 11.8
Jared Goedert: 11.9
Carlos Rivero: 12.8
Jose Constanza: 13.1
Jordan Brown: 13.6
Adam Abraham: 14.3

For Brantley, this is actually a major regression from his out of this world number last year (5.7%). Of course, after getting off to a rough start this season Brantley's numbers have been slowly coming back. In July he struck out in just 3.1% of his plate appearances (3 times in 97 trips to the plate). And to complete the plate discipline section, the following guys all have more walks than strikeouts: Brantley (1.15 BB:K), Phelps (1.11), Greenwell (1.09), Santana (1.09), Weglarz (1.03) and Arnal (1.00).

SLG% Leaders

Andy Marte: 593
Carlos Santana: 537
Jordan Brown: 532
Matt LaPorta: 523
Matt McBride: 508
Abner Abreu: 488
Lonnie Chisenhall: 487
Nick Weglarz: 466
Nate Recknagel: 466
Jared Head: 444

And for those who prefer to removing the batting average component...

ISO (SLG-BA) Leaders

Andy Marte: 266
Carlos Santana: 257
Matt LaPorta: 226
Nick Weglarz: 223
Lonnie Chisenhall: 210
Matt McBride: 208
Jordan Brown: 199
Chris Gimenez: 199
Nate Recknagel: 196
Abner Abreu: 183

Andy Marte really wasn't fooling around in July (.487 ISO) and because of that, is at the top of these lists. Lonnie Chisehall's appearance here is evidence of his very successful season at the plate so far and a good sign for a player of his age. This list does make you wish the Indians drafted guys with power, though, doesn't it...And, because repeating this phrase brings a sense of calm to me: Carlos Santana.

HR Leaders

Carlos Santana: 19
Andy Marte: 18
Lonnie Chisenhall: 16
Nick Weglarz: 15
Matt McBride: 14
Nate Recknagel: 13
Matt LaPorta: 13
Jordan Brown: 12
Beau Mills: 10
Karexon Sanchez: 8

An old fashioned HR-leaderboard finally gives us a peak at Beau Mills and his disappointing 2009. I really thought this was going to be a breakout year for him after consolidating some of his skills at the plate last year...not so much. He has been slowly getting better month by month, but not nearly what was expected of him. No positional player has had as rough a year as Mills, who probably would have a hard time cracking a top-15 list of Indians prospects were you to put one together today.

XBH Leaders

Matt McBride: 47
Andy Marte: 43
Jordan Brown: 43
Carlos Santana: 41
Lonnie Chisenhall: 41
Matt LaPorta: 36
Nate Recknagel: 35
Nick Weglarz: 34
Beau Mills: 34
John Drennen: 32

Chicks might dig the long balls, but doubles and triples are nice, too.

Net SB Leaders

Michael Brantley: 27
Jose Constanza: 13
Lucas Montero: 10
Chris Arnal: 8
Karexon Sanchez/Jason Donald: 7

This is SB-2*CS, to account for the detrimental effect of getting caught stealing. I keep this to a top 5 (6) because while the Indians have a lot of guys who steal bases in the minors, most of them aren't doing a very good job of it. Cord Phelps is fast (apparently), but actually manages a -10 because he gets caught so much. Even Constanza and Montero get caught more than they should. Michael Brantley seems to know what he is doing on the basepaths, though.

The Movers

Going up...

Lonnie Chisenhall has done a lot to quiet his skeptics. The move off of SS lowers his positional value, and it will be nice if his improvements at third continue, but the emergence of his power this season is a great sign. His secondary components have room for improvement, but neither his walk-rate or K-rate are in the red flag territory.

Andy Marte has given himself the chance at a second life with Cleveland (maybe). He's been pretty solid all season, but his numbers are buoyed considerably by his torrid July. It'll be interesting to see if major league pitchers still exploit him at the plate.

Abner Abreu was having a great full season debut until he separated his shoulder. He has worrying plate discipline issues (one of the reasons it would have been nice to get him another 200 plate appearances this year), but he also has real power.

Michael Brantley has had a phantom good year. The constant glowing reports from the Indians coaching staff about Brantley seemed to be counter to his somewhat pedestrian offensive numbers...but perhaps the Indians coaching staff knows something. Brantley's numbers suggest he's been driving the ball hard, but right at people a lot of the time.

Carlos Santana is without any debate the Indians top prospect right now.

Going down...

Beau Mills, as I said above, has not had a good season. He isn't old, but given his defensive limitations, he really needs to hope for a big turnaround season next year (and now might be a good time to start).

We spent a fair amount of money to sign Tim Fedroff and so far, the return hasn't been great. He's good at drawing walks, but for a guy with very little power he strikes out way too much (20.8%).

Looking more closely at his numbers, Carlos Rivero hasn't had as bad of a year as I thought. His plate discipline numbers are still good, he's still playing at short, but he's developing a bad habit of under-performing his stats. According to the minorleaguesplits.com numbers, Rivero has gotten unlucky every season of his career at the plate. It makes me wonder if there isn't something systemic in the way Rivero puts balls in play that the site is adjusting incorrectly for. Also, given his size, it'd be nice to see more power from him.

Final Thought

It is clear to see why the Indians have begun focusing on 2011. It is possible that by then Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley and Nick Weglarz will all be regulars in Cleveland. These are all potential impact guys. Behind them are a few younger guys who are interesting, but also a lot of guys who represent decent organizational depth guys. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians lose a few guys in the Rule 5 over the next few years who stick and have some success elsewhere.

Early Weekend 6-pack (7/30/09)

APV — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 21:50:26 -0000

This week's early weekend 6-pack is going to be heavily focused on prospects - in part because we have so many new ones coming in, but also because I've started working on an end of July minor league system overview (hopefully out sometime this weekend). But as with Betancourt, Lee, Francisco and Garko have all been here long enough to get an early weekend salute.

1. The sleepy kitten has left the building

Lee had about as interesting, or perhaps unexpected, 7-year run in Cleveland as is possible. Coming in as the second big piece of the Colon deal, Clifton Phifer Lee achieved quite a bit of success early on in Cleveland. In his first two full seasons in the rotation, 2004 and 2005, Cliff went 32-13 with a 4.56 ERA. It was in part derived from luck (2004...) and at times he struggled with control and HR tendencies (52 in those two seasons), but Cliff showed three good major league pitches enough to be considered at times the perfect compliment to CC Sabathia in a young rotation. Ironically, the Indians big step forward in 2007 coincided with Lee's big step back. The homeruns (17 in just 97 innings) and control caught up to him and his ERA ballooned over 6 as he made just 16 starts with the big league club. He even got some work out of the bullpen in a hope that he would regain some usefullness for the club. But he didn't, and so as the Indians moved in the postseason, Cliff wasn't even part of the roster. Lee then found himself auditioning for the 5th starter role heading into 2008, eventually winning it more by default than performance. But something clicked as the regular season began. His pitches, all of them, were hitting their locations with zest, all of them. After giving up 17 HRs in less than 100 innings the previous season, he gave up just 12 in a career high 223 innings in 2008. He walked a league leading low 1.4 batters per 9 innings. Despite the disappointment of the season for the team, Cliff Lee's unarguable Cy Young (and back-to-back with CC for Cleveland) highlighted the season. And this season, without quite as much success, Lee has been doing much the same. To show what an unexpected turnaround Lee made in 2008, here are the numbers from his first 7 starts of the 2008 season.

6-0, 0.67 ERA, 53.2 IP, 32 H, 1 HR, 4 ER, 4 BB, 44 K, .412 OPS against

Memo to the Columbus to Cleveland shuttle bus - that is how you nail down your rotation spot.

2. Here's to you, Ryan Garko

Garko's career line in Cleveland (which in a very strange coincidence includes an identical number of minor league and major league ABs):

409 G, .282/.354/.449, 1411 AB, 398 H, 72 2B, 53 HR, 235 RBI, 180 R

Compared to his minor league career in the organization:

388 G, .293/.379/.488, 1411 AB, 414 H, 84 2B, 60 HR, 251 RBI, 216 R

And not to be forgotten, Garko was pretty good in the 2007 playoffs (.314/.385/.514). I tried to find that image of Garko shotgunning a beer from one of the 2007 playoff locker room celebrations, but failed. This is a nice picture of him, though (and several other no longer with us and possibly soon to be gone guys):

3. The Ben Francisco-Ryan Garko love-hate cycle goes on

High school teammates, college rivals (UCLA, Stanford). Cleveland teammates, NL rivals. Francisco is not a bad fourth outfielder candidate, especially for an NL team, and now he gets the opportunity to be just that. Unlike Garko, Francisco spent more time in the minors (.291/.357/.459, 611 games) than in the majors (.261/.332/.437, 234 games). Baseball...like the civil war, pitting brother against brother, but with better hot dogs.

4. About those prospects...

Jason Knapp, age: 18.9, low-A (SAL)
2009: 2-7, 4.01 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 17 GS, 85.1 IP, 63 H, 3 HR, 39 BB, 111 K
Carlos Carrasco, age: 22.3, AAA (IL)
2009: 6-9, 5.18 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 20 GS, 114.2 IP, 118 H, 14 HR, 38 BB, 112 K
Jesse Todd, age: 23.2, AAA (PCL)
2009: 4-2, 2.20 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 41 G, 49 IP, 39 H, 3 HR, 13 BB, 59 K
Connor Graham, age: 23.6, high-A (CAL)
2009: 7-4, 3.14 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 16 GS, 80.1 IP, 68 H, 41 BB, 87 K
Scott Barnes, age: 21.9, high-A (CAL)
2009: 12-3, 2.85 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 18 GS, 98 IP, 82 H, 29 BB, 99 K
Lou Marson, age: 23.1, AAA (IL)
2009: .294/.382/.370, 63 G, 13 2B, 1 HR, 30 BB (12.4%), 40 K (16.6%)
Jason Donald, age: 24.9, AAA (IL)
2009: .236/.297/.332, 51 G, 15 2B, 1 HR, 14 BB (6.1%), 53 K (23.0%)

5. I'm just going to steal this list from Jay, who posted it in one of the threads

This is where all these players fit in (roughly) according to Kevin Goldstein's preseason rankings from Baseball Prospectus:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Matt LaPorta, LF
1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
1.5 Justin Masterson, RHP*
2. Carlos Santana, C
Four-Star Prospects
3. Nick Weglarz, LF
3. Chris Perez, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Adam Miller, RHP
5. Beau Mills, 1B
5. Lou Marson, C
5. Jess Todd, RHP
6. Hector Rondon, RHP
6. Jason Donald, SS
7. David Huff, LHP
8. Connor Graham, RHP
8. Nick Hagadone, RHP
8. Trevor Crowe, OF
9. Carlos Rivero, SS
10. Lonnie Chisenhall, SS
10. Jason Knapp, RHP
10. Bryan Price, RHP
11. Michael Brantley, CF/1B
unranked
Scott Barnes, LHP

UPDATE: I added the players acquired for Victor into this list. Masterson was beyond rookie status and thus was not ranked by Goldstein as a prospect in the preseason. However, Goldstein also ranks each team's "Top 10 Talents 25 and Under," and Masterson is placed on that list in between Boston's #1 and #2 prospects, each of whom is rated a five-star prospect. Just think — Brantley no longer makes it into the Indians pre-season Top 20, based on who would eventually be with the team. [Jay]

6. Hmm....here are the new guys with their 2008 and 2009 season-to-date Progress Score (PS) and Net

NAME	Jason Knapp	Carlos Carrasco	Jesse Todd	Connor Graham	Scott Barnes	Lou Marson	Jason Donald
2008 PS	4.54	6.63	1.39	-0.16	8.30	7.3	6.3
2009 PS	1.85	1.04	6.23	-2.14	0.19	7.9	4.2
2008 NET	20	39	34	14	45	18	5
2009 NET	45	18	34	0	39	5	-16

more to come...

Quick Summary of Recent Trades

Jack Moore — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 20:18:12 -0000

Just in case you've missed it, there's been quite a bit of activity on the trade market recently. Here's what has gone down in the last two or three days.

July 27th

Cleveland Indians trade Ryan Garko to San Francisco Giants for Scott Barnes

My analysis: This is only a marginal improvement for San Francisco. Garko is a better hitter than Travis Ishikawa, for sure, but Ishikawa is a great fielder. As I referenced here, SF should've been trying to improve their already good run prevention, and this is not the way to go about it. Barnes is a good pitching prospect, and this deal is a clear win for the Indians.

Other analysis: Bay City Ball, Fangraphs, Let's Go Tribe

July 28th

Chicago White Sox trade Brian Anderson to Boston Red Sox for Mark Kotsay

My analysis: This is probably the most meaningless trade you'll see this year. Both players had been struggling, and needed a change of scenery. Anderson, to me, is the better asset here due to age.

Other analysis: FanGraphs

July 29th

Pittsburgh Pirates trade Ian Snell, Jack Wilson to Seattle Mariners for Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin, Nathan Adcock

My analysis: Snell and Wilson were both clearly done in Pittsburgh. They both, still, have the potential to be productive players in what would be an extremely unlikely Seattle playoff run in 2009, or a much more likely 2010 run. Jack Wilson is a tremendous defensive shortstop and plays at slightly better than league average, and Snell has shown the ability to be an above average pitcher. Jeff Clement's value, in my opinion, was mostly tied in his ability to catch. With his knees shot, he'll be moving to first base, where he will have to be able to play at least average or better defense for his bat to play there. Cedeno is a throw in. The 3 class A pitchers, however, are a very good pickup for a Pirates system that is getting better by the day. Check the other analyses for more on the pitchers.

Other analysis: Fangraphs, Lookout Landing, Bucs Dugout

Seattle Mariners trade Wladimir Balentien to Cincinnati Reds for Robert Manuel

My analysis: Balentien was a touted prospect who looked very good in the minors, but has been stymied by big league pitching. At 25, Balentien's career is by no means over, but he needs a resurgence with Cincinnati. Manuel doesn't throw hard but appears to have exceptional control. He projects as a bullpen piece.

Other analysis: Fangraphs, Lookout Landing, Basement Dwellers

Cleveland Indians trade Cliff Lee, Ben Francisco to Philadelphia Phillies for Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald

My analysis: An exceptional deal for Philadelphia. Lee is incredibly cheap for both this year and next year (5.75M and 9M respectively). The Phillies hold on to Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ, and get the next best thing to Roy Halladay. This is not just a deal for this year, this is also a deal for next year, and being able to replace the anemic 5th spot in the Phillies rotation is huge. The prospects the Indians receive are certainly good, especially Knapp and Carrasco, but I feel they could've done better for Lee.

Other analysis: Fangraphs, Let's Go Tribe, Crashburn Alley

Colorado Rockies trade Jason Hirsh to New York Yankees for PTBNL

My analysis: Meaningless move. Adds rotation depth, but Sergio Mitre has been performing admirably in his fill-in role.

Other analysis: Fangraphs

Pittsburgh Pirates trade Freddy Sanchez to San Francisco Giants for Tim Alderson

My analysis: The ultimate win-now move. Too much to give up for a player like Freddy Sanchez, for sure. The Giants middle infielders have been struggling, and Freddy Sanchez is a good all-around player who will boost an anemic offense. Still, Alderson is a top-50 pitcher, and while some will disagree with that, his numbers seem to suggest that he has the potential to be a middle or even upper rotation guy, which is simply to much to give up for a rental like Sanchez.

Other analysis: Fangraphs, Bucs Dugout, Bay City Ball

July 30th

Detroit Tigers trade Josh Anderson to Kansas City Royals for cash

My analysis: Josh Anderson, much like Brian Anderson, is a speedy outfielder who had recently been DFA by his team. Royals make a cheap pickup of a player who is still young enough to become a potentially productive player. Detroit just wasn't the right place for him.

Other analysis: Bless You Boys

MLB Trade Rumors: Cliff Lee Traded To The Phillies

raygu — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 13:30:10 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

4 months ago: Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Cliff Lee, right, talks with left fielder Ben Francisco during a baseball game with the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim, Calif., Wednesday, July 29, 2009. The Philadelphia Phillies acquired Lee from the Indians, who traded the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner for the second straight season, a baseball official said Wednesday. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Browse more photos »

Work has prevented me from posting this until today, but I have to post something on the biggest trade of the season so far. The Phillies traded single-A pitcher Jason Knapp, AAA pitcher Carlos Carrasco, AAA catcher Lou Marson and AAA SS-2B Jason Donald to the Indians for Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco.

I think the Phillies won this deal as they didn't have to trade any of their top 4 prospects- AA pitcher Kyle Drabek, single-A outfielder Dominic Brown, major league starter J.A. Happ or AAA outfielder Michael Taylor. So the Phillies get a year and two, possibly three, months of Cliff Lee, and a 4th outfielder in Ben Francisco for 4 average prospects, although Knapp could be special as he is only 18 years old.

I do wonder though what Cleveland is going to do with catcher Lou Marson though. He was assigned to AAA Columbus, but why ask for a catching prospect when you have the best catching prospect in the minors in AA-Carlos Santana. No, not THAT Carlos Santana. Santana came to the Indians in the trade with the Dodgers for Casey Blake last year.

I assume Marson could get called up to the majors should catcher Victor Martinez get traded by Friday at 4pm. But we all know there will be a thousand rumors on where he will be traded to between now and then.

Barring a trade of Roy Halladay to the NL, the Phillies become the NL favorite to go to the World Series as their rotation will be tough to beat. Their rotation, headed by Lee, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer and J.A. Happ, is lefty heavy, but is solid. I do think the Phillies need some bullpen help with the way closer Brad Lidge has struggled this year though.

Poll

Who won the deal that sent Cliff Lee to the Phillies?

Phillies-they become the NL favorote to make the World Series.

123 votes

Indians-they get 4 good prospects, 3 of which are major-league ready.

7 votes

130 votes | Poll has closed

Phillies Breakfast Links, July 30, 2009: Cliff Lee, Cliff Lee, and oh... Cliff Lee.

WholeCamels — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 12:08:56 -0000

Cliff Lee in a hurry to join Phillies
Cliff Lee's possible Saturday start versus fellow reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, the FOX Saturday Game of the Week, is a must-see event the likes of which regular season baseball has not seen in years.

Bill Conlin: Phillies GM Amaro pulls off masterful move to land Lee
Of course Conlin likes the trade, they got to keep Michael Taylor!

Jim Salisbury: In Lee, Phillies get the next best pitcher
I'm sick of this "consolation prize"/"second best" crap. They got a terrific pitcher and kept their top prospects. The "scare factor" junk with Halladay is flatout idiotic.

Halladay isn't going anywhere
So... what about Roy Halladay?

Three 'Pigs will get a new home
Farewell to IronPigs Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson.

For Cleveland Indians fans, Cliff Lee trade makes it harder to believe
Cleveland sports columnist wonders if Tribe fans should even bother.

Mets and NL Should Breath a Sigh of Relief
Only a Mets journalist/fan could spin their archrival picking up the reigning Cy Young Award as a "win" for his team.

Rob Oller commentary: This trade is unpleasantly familiar
An Ohio journalist laments the Indians' inability to hold onto their stars.

With Lee, Phils are halfway there
Don McKee argues that the bullpen still needs to be fixed. Well, the bullpen isn't as bad as much as they need to remove certain people from certain "roles" for awhile.