SB Nation - Greg Golson

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

Monday morning Rangers stuff

Adam J. Morris — Mon, 04 May 2009 14:48:22 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

7 months ago: Texas Rangers' Matt Harrison pitches in the first inning of a baseball game against the Chicago White Sox, Sunday, May 3, 2009, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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Impressive outing by Matt Harrison. In the second inning in his last start, I had mentally thrown in the towel on him, and was pretty much ready to see the Rangers send him back to Oklahoma when Kris Benson was healthy, or else move Derek Holland into the rotation into his place.

And I'm not sure what exactly happened, but it is like a switch flipped...he's allowed 0 runs in his last ten innings, he's been throwing strikes, it is like he's a whole new pitcher out there. This looks like the guy who the Rangers traded for, the guy who was a BA top 100 prospect.

Anthony Andro focuses on how two key parts of the Mark Teixeira trade -- Harrison and Elvis Andrus -- fueled yesterday's 5-1 win. But Ozzie Guillen wasn't impressed with Harrison:

"What did I see out of him?" Guillen said of Harrison. "He throws strikes. He was in deep counts all the time and walking people. But he got the win. To me, whoever got the 'W', that's the one who is the best. I don't care how good or bad he throws."

Harrison actually didn't issue any walks yesterday, although he did go deeper in counts than you'd like, and his pitch count was too high for 5 innings. But I'll take that from him right now...

Jeff Miller's story includes comments from Ron Washington about keeping Andrus in the #2 hole while Josh Hamilton is out, although he then indicated that David Murphy might get some time there, as well.

With Jarrod Saltalamacchia recovered from his eye problem, Max Ramirez is heading back to AAA, and Greg Golson is coming up to take his place on the roster.

Kris Benson's rehab start went fine from a health standpoint, andT.R. Sullivan says the question now isn't whether he'll replace Scott Feldman -- who is apparently sticking in the rotation -- but whether he'll be activated immediately to replace Luis Mendoza in the bullpen.

Gil LeBreton says that, while the Danks/McCarthy trade was a backstory for this weekend's series, it is time to let that go and move on.

TotalZone on Center Field Prospects

erik — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 10:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Richard Drew - AP

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Thanks to the efforts of Sean Smith and Jeff Sackmann, we now have TotalZone stats for the minor leagues, which can be found at players' pages at Minor League Splits. You can read up on how useful and reliable these stats are here.

Yesterday we looked at shortstops, today let's tackle center fielders. Charted below are the 2008 stats for the consensus top center field prospects, or at least those who played enough games at the position to qualify.

	Org.	Age	Level	Outs	Chances	Runs	Runs/150
Colby Rasmus	STL	21	AAA	202	368	9	15
Cameron Maybin	FLA	21	AA	230	397	2	3
Dexter Fowler	COL	22	AA	255	482	1	1
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	21	AAA	277	484	6	8
Austin Jackson	NYY	21	AA	214	393	-13	-20
Jordan Schafer	ATL	21	AA	162	301	-1	-2
Greg Halman	SEA	20	AA	137	271	-7	-16
Ben Revere	MIN	20	A	150	260	3	7
Gorkys Hernandez	ATL	20	A+	246	378	26	42
Gerardo Parra	AZ	21	AA	136	255	-6	-14
Fernando Martinez	NYM	19	AA	195	367	-7	-12
Aaron Cunningham	OAK	22	AA	115	250	-10	-25
Engel Beltre	TEX	18	A	271	498	6	7
Julio Borbon	TEX	22	AA	147	236	14	36
Drew Stubbs	CIN	23	A+	179	353	14	24
Greg Golson	TEX	22	AA	270	477	-4	-5
Dominic Brown	PHI	20	A	119	220	2	6
Jon Jay	STL	23	AA	245	395	16	25
Brett Gardner	NYY	24	AAA	178	319	0	0
Che-Hsuan Lin	BOS	19	A	177	312	2	4

Colby Rasmus slumped at the plate last year, but his defense did not. He has been a consistent performer in center the last four years, worth +30 runs. Tony La Russa is probably mismanaging his resources a bit; he's pushing Rasmus to left field in favor of Rick Ankiel, who is projected to cost his team 4 runs in center but projects to be +4 in a corner. CHONE projects Rasmus to be +10 in a corner and +4 in center. Not a real big difference, but an extra couple of runs is an extra couple of runs.
Cameron Maybin on the other hand has been up and down. He was outstanding in 2006 (+18), bad in 2007 (-12) and then around average in '08.
Dexter Fowler has a similar story as Maybin, only with a twist. '06: -16. '07: +18. '08: +1. Could it have something to do with some home park issues going on in Asheville? Anthony Jackson was Asheville's CF in '07, he posted a +6 away and a -15 home. Michael Mitchell was Asheville's regular CF last year and was -17 at home and + 4 away. Fowler was -17 when he was at Ashville, +1 on the road. McCormick Field must be some sort of Bermuda Triangle for center fielders.
Andrew McCutchen has been a rock with +9, +8, +9 for his last three seasons. He ought to push Nate McLouth to a corner spot some point this year.
Austin Jackson is probably the Yankees' future right fielder rather than center fielder. He also was a -14 season in 2006. His bat doesn't profile nearly as well in a corner position. Brett Gardner is not in Jackson's class as far as prospect status, but has posted +13, +1 and +9 at different points in his career.
I've talked about Schafer and Hernandez before. Both have reputations for being superior center fielders, Hernandez has the numbers to back it up. Unreal numbers, actually, and it's not just over one year, he's been worth +53 runs over the last three seasons. Schafer will most likely be the Braves starting CF for 2009, but has been -17 runs since 2005. He had a couple of bad seasons followed by a couple of average ones, so he has improved.
Greg Halman, Fernando Martinez, Aaron Cunningham and Gerardo Parra all are expected to be corner outfielders in the majors according to their scouting reports. TZ wholeheartedly concurs.
Julio Borbon and Jon Jay are your speedy, contact-oriented type of center fielders. Neither have drawn raves for the defense, but both are coming off terrific seasons.
Drew Stubbs' comes with a few questions about his bat, but not his glove. He has been worth +39 runs through '06-'08.

Rally explains that with center fielders, these stats translate well from one level to the next, give or take a run or two. The average center fielder in Low A is about as good as the average major league center fielder.

Tuesday a.m. things

Adam J. Morris — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 14:31:50 -0000

Yeah, not a good outing yesterday for Kevin Millwood, who allowed 10 runs in 3 innings. Millwood said the problem was his location. Evan Grant says the important thing is that Millwood is throwing pitches, and is working towards a 100 pitch outing by the end of spring training.

Gil LeBreton thinks that Kris Benson should get a look in the Ranger rotation, and notes that Benson's opt-out date is May 5, which allows the Rangers to send him to the minors for a month and see how things shake out with their original 5.'

Evan Grant says that, while the bat was the big question for Andruw Jones coming into spring training, Jones' defense in centerfield has been problematic thusfar as well, with Ron Washington describing Jones as "sluggish" on a ball that went for a triple yesterday.

Grant also notes that Hank Blalock is taking some ground balls at third base, with the idea being that on the rare occasions Michael Young needs a day off, Blalock could fill in. I suspect that if Young were to be out more than a day or maybe two, then German Duran or Travis Metcalf would be brought up to fill in.

Elvis Andrus is learning the ropes this spring, and is getting praise for asking the right questions and spending time with Rudy Jaramillo and Omar Vizquel.

Mike Hindman has a write-up on Greg Golson, the former first rounder whom the Rangers acquired from the Phillies for John Mayberry, Jr. this offseason.

Marshalling Strikeouts: Cubs 2, Rangers 7

Al — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 23:15:24 -0000

The Cubs lost to the Rangers today 7-2, their sixth loss in a row, but the most important stories came on the HoHoKam Park mound.

Sean Marshall was outstanding today, becoming the first Cub starter to go four innings -- and he gave the good-hitting Rangers only two singles, and struck out three. It's too early to give the fifth starter's job to Marshall, but he's got to be the favorite now, especially since that would give the Cubs two lefties in the rotation, something Lou would like (I know Lou likes lefthanded hitters, but he also likes LHP in the rotation). Tomorrow, two of the other candidates, Chad Gaudin and Jeff Samardzija, will throw against the Royals (we'll also see Kevin Gregg and Randy Wells), and isn't it nice to have two others besides Marshall who could start -- three, if you count Aaron Heilman?

If Marshall can't handle the load, there are others who can. That's something the Cubs haven't had much of in the last few years, pitching depth.

Kevin Hart and Chad Fox probably pitched their way off the team today, Fox with his wildness helping lead to the Rangers' lead run in the 8th, and Hart loading the bases on a single and two walks and then letting Greg Golson, who was acquired by trade by the Rangers last fall but who has little chance of making the team, hit a grand slam. Too bad, as I thought that Hart, who had enough talent to get himself on the 2007 postseason roster, could have become a useful bullpen pitcher for the Cubs, but it seems he's destined to be a career minor leaguer. Fox, who seemingly has been coming to Cubs spring camps since the 1970's, is probably finally done at age 38. Give the guy credit for trying several comebacks, but it's time to give it up. Meanwhile, Luis Vizcaino, who maybe should give it up, also was wild, issuing three walks that helped lead to the Rangers' two-run fifth, and he couldn't even finish his designated inning of work -- not very good for those of us who are hoping that the scouts will recommend to someone to pick up his contract.

The Cubs' two runs scored on a double play and an infield out. That's not very good offense, and the only Cubs who had decent offensive days were Aramis Ramirez (2-for-2) and Koyie Hill (2-for-2, a walk, a run scored), and if Hill could even hit 100 points lower than the .357 he currently sports, he'd be a useful backup catcher.

The strikeouts came from Jose Ascanio and Neal Cotts, both of whom threw shutout innings and struck out the side. That's a good sign for Cotts; for Ascanio, it probably makes him the closer at Iowa again.

Attendance today was 11,082 on a coolish, 66-degree day; that makes the seven-game average 9,680, not bad for this early in the spring. (It'll likely go down tomorrow, a Monday afternoon against the Royals.)

For once, the visiting radio broadcast was pretty decent; apart from one 1908 mention (at 3:31 pm CDT, 24 minutes into the game), Eric Nadel and Dave Barnett did a nice job of calling the game straight and seemed fairly knowledgeable about the Cubs. Tomorrow's game will again be available at the MLB.com Mediacenter, via KCSP, the Royals flagship, hopefully with Denny Matthews, one of the best in the business (and hopefully NOT with Ryan Lefebvre, who ... isn't). Brian Bannister will start for the Royals tomorrow, and will be followed by, among others, Luke Hochevar, Joel Peralta, and our old buddy Dr. Tightpants, Kyle Farnsworth.

While spring training results mean nothing, these games have seen the Cubs look pretty flat and lifeless, with little offense generated to support the good pitching. It's time to step it up and start hitting.

Monday night linkaliciousness

Adam J. Morris — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 02:50:18 -0000

A lot of talk about the Laird trade out there today...

Keith Law sees it as a positive for the Rangers:

The trade of Gerald Laird to the Tigers gets Detroit an inexpensive everyday catcher, but one with limited upside, and at a pretty significant cost in minor league pitching.

* * *

His secondary stuff is all projection at this point, but bear in mind that the Rangers might be the best team at identifying amateur talent in Latin America and have used that knowledge to find throw-ins for trades the past two years. They landed their top prospect, Neftali Feliz, in one of those trades, and toolsy outfielder Engel Beltre in another. Of course, Melo is just a baby in baseball terms, and the odds are against his staying healthy and developing into a big leaguer, but the strategy of collecting as many arms like his as possible and figuring enough will pan out is a sound one.

Christina Kahrl? Not so much...

You might be asking yourself, two years of a start-worthy catcher, in this market, and that's it? Keep in mind that Laird's going to be arbitration-eligible both seasons, and that'll run his employers perhaps as much as $4-5 million over that time. Even so, if you're a Rangers fan who harbored high expectations for what Laird might bring you, this has to be a bit of a disappointment.

Joe Sheehan also weighed in...

The Tigers need a catcher and see nothing in the market they can invest in with confidence. The Rangers have a glut of them, thanks to some shrewd trades by Jon Daniels. Gerald Laird, pack your bags. Laird is a marginal starter himself, with so-so power, a poor contact rate, and a career K/BB over three to one. He has a good defensive reputation, and very good statistics, having thrown out 38 percent of the runners trying to steal on him in his career. Some of that may be in the pitchers he's worked with, such as Kenny Rogers and Vicente Padilla, who hold runners well, so take that figure with a grain of salt. Laird is a stopgap, and at 29, he's not going to change much. He's probably better used as part of a solution than as the whole one.

The Tigers didn't give up the store here. One of the prospects is a 25-year-old who has just 260 professional innings under his belt. Guillermo Moscoso was the Tigers' tenth-ranked prospect according to Baseball America, and while his performance begs attention—122 strikeouts in 86 2/3 innings at two levels last season—his age and level limit his upside. The other prospect, Carlos Melo, won't even be 18 until February 27, and is a skinny hard-throwing right-hander. Check back in 2012.

For the Rangers, it looks more and more like Taylor Teagarden is going to emerge from their group and be their starter in the long term. Teagarden is by far the best defensive catcher they have, and will be one of the best in baseball once he takes over in Arlington. While the team could find room for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Max Ramirez, both players—who are marginal catchers with very big bats—would have more value to an organization that will put them behind the plate and live with their defense. That puts Daniels on the spot; he has a team that is emerging as one of the best collections of talent for the 2010s. His job now is to turn that into a baseball team, which means signing the right free agents—next year, in all likelihood—sorting through the gluts at some positions, and bringing along studs Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland in a way that balances their development, their health, and the team's needs. While I'd rather have his job than, say, Neal Huntington's, Daniels faces significant challenges in progressing from a strong organization to a championship team. Trading Saltalamacchia and Ramirez will be a critical step in that process.

Richard Durrett has some bullet points from Jon Daniels on the trade, including Daniels saying that the team is going to look at Moscoso as a starter. From what little I know, he seems like a better fit in the pen, but the more I think about this, the more I have to wonder if Moscoso isn't this year's Terrmel Sledge, the guy we get in a trade and ruminate about and try to figure out where he'll fit in, only to see him moved before the season in another deal. Moscoso is the type of live arm that lots of teams are going to be interested in, and could be a kicker in a deal involving one of the catchers, one of the expensive starters, or Hank Blalock.

Durrett also has a Q&A with Laird up.

Over at FanGraphs, Dave Cameron says Laird would be a $10-12 million per year player on the open market.

T.R. Sullivan has some notes up from Vegas, with the most notable being the Giants having interest in Blalock and the Braves having interest in Millwood. For the life of me, I am having a hard time figuring out what sort of return a Millwood to Atlanta deal would bring.

Jeff Wilson has many blog updates today, including a mention that Greg Golson is going to be in Arlington working with Rudy Jaramillo this week.