SB Nation - Eric Hurley

Boy, Did that Strict Pitch Count Ever Screw Up Nolan Ryan's 1987

devil_fingers — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 16:38:34 -0000

In a recent article (co-written as an exchange with Bill James), Joe Posnanski makes the following remark:

[Nolan] Ryan believed that the game belonged to the starting pitcher. It was his. Ryan HATED 1987 -- that was the year when Houston manager Hal Lanier put Ryan on a strict pitch count (Ryan did not complete a single game that year). On one level it worked: Ryan led the league in ERA. On another, it did not: Ryan finished the season 8-16. You have to think that year is part of what's driving him to recapture a little bit of the 1970s.

This is in the context of Posnanski and James' celebration of Nolan Ryan's challenging of the current conventional wisdom regarding pitchcounts. When I read it, I was curious to find out just how awful Ryan's 1987 turned out to be.

Let me make clear right from the start: I'm not here to offer any sort of opinion about pitch counts or Nolan Ryan's opinions on them in general. (Here is one interesting discussion.) I was more interested to see just how "bad" Ryan's 1987 turned out to be, given that Posnanski implies that it is one thing driving him to make over the Rangers' pitching philosophy. So, withouit any further ado, here's a a chronological graph of Ryan's career using... you guess it, his Pitching Wins Above Replacement according to Rally.

I realize that's difficult to read (you can click on it to get a close up), but I think the gist is pretty clear -- whatever Ryan may or may not feel about 1987, according to Rally's calculations, it was actually the 5th most valuable season of his long (if overrated) career. Moreover, 1987 was the most valuable season he'd had since 1977, and he never was quite as valuable again. Sure, he went 8-16, but, I dunno, maybe an offense that was the second worst in baseball had something to do with it (yes I realize that wRAA for that period isn't park-adjusted; however, when I ran my own linear weights with park adjustments, the 1987 Astros [at -67] still came out second worst to the Dodgers -at 86].).

As I wrote above, I don't have an educated opinion on pitch counts. Still, while he doesn't quote Ryan directly, it is interesting that Posnanski picks 1987 as a year that heavily influenced Ryan's opposition to pitch counts, and it turns out to have been one of Ryan's best seasons. Maybe it's the 8-16 record that sticks out. I can only assume that Nolan Ryan, as the President of a professional baseball club, is smart enough not to use pitcher wins as a measuring stick of any kind of significance... right?

Thursday morning stuff

Adam J. Morris — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 14:21:04 -0000

So, yeah, as everyone knows, Eric Hurley is out for the year. He had surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and frayed labrum, will resume throwing in 12-16 weeks, and won't pitch again, it sounds like, until 2010.

What particularly sucks about this is that there was the idea initially that you had five guys who, if everyone was healthy, were the likely rotation guys -- Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Harrison, Feldman -- and then Hurley as the standby in case anyone was hurt, struggled, etc.

Now, with Hurley out of the picture, the #1 standby guy would be...Dustin Nippert, I guess? Luis Mendoza? Tommy Hunter? Maybe Thomas Diamond? Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz you figure you want to be in AAA for the first three months of the season, all of a sudden, signing someone like Jason Jennings as insurance becomes more of a priority.

Jeff Wilson mentions Kason Gabbard as a potential rotation candidate as well, although I think he's probably headed for the bullpen.

Omar Vizquel signed a minor league deal with the Rangers. I think everyone is aware of that, as well.

And Jason Parks has a lengthy prospect mailbag up at BBTIA. Check it out...

Hurley Done for the Season -- Torn Rotator Cuff

Adam J. Morris — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 19:43:53 -0000

Sigh.

Son of a Showalter.

UPDATE -- A little more info from T.R.

Eric Hurley underwent surgery on Wednesday to repair his right rotator cuff. He will be out for the season. Hurley missed the second half of last season with a shoulder injury and it never recovered. Surgery was recommended and performed on Wednesday by Dr. Keith Meister.