SB Nation - Elvis Andrus

Thanksgiving Day stuff

Adam J. Morris — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 16:44:06 -0000

On this Thanksgiving, all Rangers fans can be thankful for a variety of things, I think.

Elvis Andrus has been named to the Topps All-Rookie team. I'm thankful that Elvis Andrus is a Ranger.

Murray Chass calls Tom Hicks the second worst owner in baseball behind Vince Naimoli (who, of course, is no longer an owner), and says that Dennis Gilbert appears to be the favorite because he's tight with Jerry Reinsdorf, and everyone knows that Reinsdorf and Bud Selig are tight, with Reinsdorf being one of the prime movers behind making Selig commissioner. And of course, he was behind the vetoing of Eddie Gaylord buying the team.

Chass says it is basically down to Gilbert and Chuck Greenberg, because Hicks won't be approved and Jim Crane alienated Drayton McLane in a previous dealing to the point that McLane will sink Crane's bid.

Evan Grant comments on the Chass story, as well, and says he's also hearing that Hicks has basically no chance of coming out of this with the team.

Richard Durrett thinks the ChiSox made a good move in signing Andruw Jones. I'm a little surprised Jones got a major league deal...after his past few seasons, I figured he was an NRI guy.

Hanson Named Topps Rookie All-Star

cbwilk — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:55:26 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Tommy Hanson was 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA after joining Atlanta in June.

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Braves rookie Tommy Hanson, who finished third in the voting for the National League Rookie of the Year Award, was named to Topps' 51st Rookie All-Star team, along with the two players who finished ahead of him in the award voting, Florida outfielder Chris Coghlan and Philadelphia pitcher JA Happ.

The rest of the player selected include Mets' catcher Omir Santos, Giants first baseman Travis Ishikawa, White Sox second baseman Chris Getz and third baseman Gordon Beckham, Rangers shortstop (and former Braves prospect) Elvis Andrus, Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen and Orioles outfielder Nolan Reimold.

The accolade is just another sign of how good Hanson was this year for Atlanta. I've personally had the pleasure of seeing all of the players on this All-Star team at one point or another in their Minor League career, with the exception of Beckham, and I think that Hanson has by far the best chance to be a long-term star player in the Major League, with McCutchen as a solid second.

Omar Vizquel is Official

The Cheat — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 06:23:29 -0000

I held off on commenting on the long-rumored Omar Vizquel signing for two reasons; one, it's pretty tough to get excited about the signing of a back-up shortstop, even if he happens to be one of the best defenders in the history of the game; and two, I wasn't going to waste the energy on a deal that wasn't official. Well now the deal is official.

It seems the only hangup was getting Omar hooked up with some Sox gear, rounding up Luis Aparicio, and putting together a press conference focusing on the White Sox Venezuelan tradition.

So what's left to say? The Sox picked up a veteran who took to the role of part-time backup and full-time mentor to Elvis Andrus, and he'll presumably fall into that same role here with a pair of green middle infielders in Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham. Though Ozzie Guillen is never content to let our assumptions go uncontradicted, saying that Vizquel isn't here as a coach and will get lots of time thanks to Alexei's annual pre-Memorial Day siesta at the plate.

"I don't want him to be a coach,'' manager Ozzie Guillen said of the signing. "That's the last thing I want. Omar is so professional handling something he had to do for the first time in his life. I think the job he did with the kids in Texas [last season] was outstanding.

"His presence with the team is very important. He's a guy that knows how to play the game, he's a Hall of Famer. The kids can take advantage, especially Gordon [Beckham] and [Alexei] Ramirez. We will try and find him a lot of playing time, especially early in the year because everyone knows Ramirez struggles early either because of the weather or over-training."

Putting Elvis Andrus's Rookie Season in Perspective

Adam J. Morris — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 20:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

5 months ago: Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus gets the force out at second of Los Angeles Angels' Kendry Morales after Howie Kendrick hit into a double play during the second inning of a baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Wednesday, July 8, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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One of the things we've talked about is how Elvis Andrus was a particularly special player simply because of what he did this year...very few players spend a full season in the major leagues at age 20, as an every day player, and perform like he did.

In an effort to put this in perspective, I went to Baseball Reference and did a search of their database. I asked B-R to list every season since 1901 where a player, age 20 or less, got at least 400 plate appearances in the majors, and was a second baseman or shortstop.

There were only 19 season, which was less than I expected. And two of those seasons were by Robin Yount, so you have a total of 18 players who have done, in terms of playing time, what Elvis did in 2009.

Elvis had the 12th highest OPS+ out of those 19th seasons, just ahead of Gary Sheffield (and yes, for you young 'uns, Sheffield used to be a shortstop). He also finished ahead of Robin Yount's age 20 season.

The guys ahead of him are, in order:

Alex Rodriguez

Arky Vaughan

Roberto Alomar

Edgar Renteria

Travis Jackson

Whitey Witt

Bill Mazeroski

Frankie Gustine

Robin Yount

Alan Trammell

Bobby Doerr

So that is four Hall of Famers, two guys who will be in the Hall once they are eligible (although Robbie is probably not a first ballot guy), a couple of guys who probably deserve to be in the Hall but aren't (Trammell and Doerr), and three guys who went on to be decent, but not great, players.

Think about that for a moment. Think about how exceptional what Elvis Andrus did last year was, and the company it puts him in.

(Incidentally, Alex Rodriguez's age 20 season is probably the greatest age 20 season by any positional player, ever. He had a 160 OPS+ and an OPS of over 1000. No one else on the list had an OPS better than 787. Arky Vaughan, one of the three or four best shortstops of all time, had a 113 OPS+, and no one else was better than 105).

Elvis also had the most steals of anyone on that least, had the 6th highest number of walks, and was tied for the 6th highest number of homers.

Bump it up a year, and look at 21 year old shortstops, and there are only 22 who had a better OPS+ in 400+ PAs than Andrus had in 2009.

And again, you see a lot of HOFers or future HOFers (ARod, Vaughan, Rogers Hornsby, Young, Jackson, Cal Ripken, Joe Tinker, Rabbit Maranville), along with quite a few very, very good players (Trammell, Vern Stephens, Jim Fregosi, Dick Bartell) and guys who had long, solid careers (Frankie Crosetti, Alfredo Griffin, Zoilo Versalles, Donie Bush, Garry Templeton), with just a couple of clunkers (Mike Caruso, Joe Cassidy) mixed in.

Elvis had a special, special season in 2009. I mean, we as Rangers fans, I think, getting to watch him every day, I think have a good sense for how good he is, particularly with the glove...but until I went and looked at the data, I didn't realize how exceptional it was for a middle infielder to be a major league regular this young, and hit as well as he did.

Chicago writer angry Beckham was snubbed

Adam J. Morris — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:46:48 -0000

There's a writer in Chicago who is throwing a tantrum over Gordon Beckham not getting more support for the Rookie of the Year Award. Some key excerpts:

Granted, the writers got it right by electing Oakland Athletics closer Andrew Bailey the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year. Bailey had a phenomenal year, start to finish and deserved the honor.
But they flubbed by giving Beckham zero first-place votes and two second-place votes.

Red flags should be raised when the Sporting News - in a players' poll - voted Beckham the AL Rookie of the Year last month. Around that same time, Beckham's peers in the players' association also selected him as the top AL rookie.

Players, what do they know?

All they do is study the competition from top to bottom, face these guys on the same field and gossip like a bunch of retirees in Florida.

Given a choice between trusting the opinion of a major league player or that of a ''baseball writer'' - and that term includes sports editors, columnists, general-assignment reporters and retired journalists who rarely, if ever, get to a major league ballpark but still get BBWAA ballots - well, the players win in a landslide.

* * *

Two ''writers'' in each AL city get a vote. And it's hard to see how they could believe Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus had such a vastly superior rookie season to Beckham.

* * *

Beckham had his struggles in the field, committing 14 errors for a .952 fielding percentage, but Andrus led all regular AL shortstops with 22 errors and had a .968 fielding percentage.

This wasn't about defense.

Beckham impressed most at the plate. Behind the numbers, he proved to be a clutch performer - a tall task for any rookie. With runners on base, Beckham hit .307. With runners in scoring position, he hit .323. And with two outs and runners in scoring position - ask any manager the importance of this stat - he hit .348.

Andrus, with two outs and runners in scoring position, hit .217. That's about what you would expect from a rookie.

Everyone, grab your torches and pitchforks and head for Chicago!!!

Marlins Chris Coghlan, A's Andrew Bailey named top rookies

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:55:55 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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MLB announced that Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan and A's closer Andrew Bailey were awarded the Rookie of the Year honors for the 2009 season.

Coghlan edged out Phillies pitcher J.A. Happ while Bailey edged Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, who beat Tigers pitcher Rick Porcello by one point for the second spot.

SB Nation - Baseball writers voted Tommy Hanson in the NL and Andrus in the AL, with Coghlan finishing fourth and Bailey finishing second.

Do you guys think that Coghlan and Bailey were the right picks for the awards?

Elvis Andrus finishes 2nd in ROY balloting

Adam J. Morris — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:36:15 -0000

So the announcement is out, and Elvis Andrus finished second in the Rookie of the Year balloting, finishing behind Andrew Bailey, who came in first place, and ahead of third place finisher Rick Porcello.

Disappointing that Andrus didn't win, but Bailey is a worthy choice as well, and it is impressive that Andrus finished as high as he did, given that his offensive numbers weren't overwhelming...it is good to know that folks did pay attention to his sterling defense this year.

UPDATE -- The full results.

Another random thought about Elvis Andrus

Adam J. Morris — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:30:28 -0000

More photos » by Mike Fuentes - AP

2 months ago: Texas Ranges' Elvis Andrus, right, slides safely home against Tampa Bay Rays' Gregg Zaun in the fifth inning of a baseball game in Arlington, Texas, on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009. (AP Photo/Mike Fuentes)

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I've been reading Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract recently, and something that caught my eye...

He discusses, in the section on Ryne Sandberg, whether one should have been able to reasonably predict that Sandberg had a good chance of becoming a Hall of Famer based on his rookie season. James says that a 22 year old who puts up 14-18 win shares (the range Sandberg was in as a 22 year old rookie) should be expected to have around a 25% chance of making the Hall of Fame, given how rare it is for someone that young to perform that well in the majors.

Elvis Andrus, of course, wasn't 22 years old last year. He was 20 years old. And his win share total for 2009?

17.

You have to feel really good about what the future holds for Elvis Andrus...

Rookie of the Year and the Mythical Sophomore Slump

Tommy Bennett — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:00:41 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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Time to bust out your Kirt Manwaring Rated Rookie cards, kids. It's that time of year!

Rookie of the Year is a bit of a strange award. It's given, I presume, to the rookie-eligible player who had the most valuable season in each league. It has good historical pedigree, as Jackie Robinson won the inaugural award in 1947 (when there was only one RoY for both leagues). Nevertheless, it produces some odd results and gives a lot of weight to the perception of the "sophomore slump."

Consider this: after you adjust for the development curve and the salutary effects of experience, would you expect a random player chosen from the pool of first year players to be better than a random player chosen from the pool of ten year players?

Your first instinct might be to say that it shouldn't matter; after all, if we're adjusting for age then the average player is the average player. Except, as in the classic Monty Hall problem, my setup makes the second choice more attractive by providing the chooser with additional information. In this case, the ten year player has survived the ruthless selection that occurs at the major league level. As a result, a Good Bayesian should update his priors and select the veteran.

So what, you say. It doesn't matter that the award is given to an overall less deserving set of players. The point is to recognize the best newcomer to the league!

Well, I'm not sure that makes sense either.

Two objections apply. First, players enter the league at staggered points on their aging curves. So, players who are called up for partial seasons (eliminating rookie eligibility) are penalized, as are players who are called up at a young age. As a result, players like Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, and many others never have a chance to win the award. Further, players who enter the league late in their careers, like Ryan Howard, have a systematic advantage.

The second objection is that it is more sensitive to year-to-year fluctuations than other awards because the rookie year tends to be the first impression voters have of a player. The best way to illustrate this problem is with an analogy.

How many times have your too-cool-for-school hipster friends decried a band's second album? "Sophomore slump" they proclaim, or "they sold out!" Or how about the entire directing career of M. Night Shyamalan. These artists make one good cultural artifact, and everyone assumes they're geniuses. Then, when they inevitably fail to match their previous level of success, it's because of some personal flaw.

Consider what Larry at Wezen-Ball has found:

In the first 50 years of its existence (from 1947 through 1996), there were exactly 100 awards handed out. Thirteen of those players are currently in the Hall of Fame (Cal Ripken was the last winner to be inducted). In addition to those thirteen, Pete Rose is ineligible for the Hall, Andre Dawson is inching his way towards induction, Mark McGwire is sitting in limbo, Jeff Bagwell & Mike Piazza are not yet eligible, and Derek Jeter is still playing. Counting all six of those players, that puts the HOF-success rate of the Rookie of the Year award at 19%. It increases to 20% if you consider Lou Whitaker and his 69.7 career WAR as a HOF-worthy player (Dick Allen's 61.2 career WAR also has a case). Since 1997, Rookie of the Year award winners have included Carlos Beltran, Albert Pujols, and Ichiro!, all of whom are likely Hall of Famers.

Fewer than 20% of RoY winners go on to make the Hall of Fame (don't get me started on Dick Allen, who never once in his life got a fair shake). Why could this be?

Call it the Shyamalan Effect. He made "The Sixth Sense," which everyone loved. But the acclaim the film received was partly because the reveal was novel, partly because it had (some) good acting, and partly because Shyamalan does have virtues as a director. But many of the reasons why "The Sixth Sense" was a success were entirely unrelated to Shyamalan. So when his subsequent films disappointed, it shouldn't have come as a surprise. (Note the convenience of the WOWY style of analysis: we can eliminate Bruce Willis as the cause!)

The same phenomenon holds in baseball. To some degree, success in a given season, rookie seasons included, depends on factors outside a player's control. I tend to think of all circumstances outside an individual's control as "luck," but if you choose a different word that is fine. The essential point is that other factors may combine in your favor or they may conspire against you.

Because rookies are often unknown to the voters, they will select whichever one had the best performance in that one year. That is, their choice is unanchored by past performance, as it surely is in MVP consideration. So they are perhaps more likely to incorporate those contingent factors outside a player's control (team strength, for example, when looking at RBI, or defense, when looking at ERA) when determining whom to select.

I'm not suggesting the voters do a great job with the MVP or even that they do a particularly terrible job with the Rookie of the Year. But if Elvis Andrus collects his Rookie of the Year on the strength of his excellent defense and his .267/.329/.373 batting line with 33 SB, remember this. If we take away one hit a month and instead make it a walk, his line becomes .254/.329/.360 and he probably doesn't win the award.

This phenomenon is compounded by the path dependency of expectations. A player who was a Rookie of the Year will be given repeated chances to prove himself. (What, you don't believe me?) By contrast, a player who underperforms in his first shot may not get another fair shot for many years.

We've been spoiled by good Rookies of the Year in recent memory: Evan Longoria, Dustin Pedroia, Ryan Braun, and Hanley Ramirez are all poised to remain stars for several years. But the structure of the award still produces some bizarre results: Bob Hamelin? Marty Cordova? (On second thought, Hamelin's '94 might have been the last time a Royal slugged .599).

If you're searching for an explanation for why Angel Berroa won the award in 2003, remember that he was rewarded for contingent success as much as for inherent skill. And when this year's Rookie of the Year winners come back down to earth next season, remember that the only reason you thought they were breakout rookies was in part because they had good luck their rookie seasons.

I hope everyone who saw Unbreakable knows what I'm talking about.

Monday morning Rangers stuff

Adam J. Morris — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:07:04 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

7 months ago: Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus makes a leaping throw to first base on a ground ball by Oakland Athletics' Kurt Suzuki in the sixth inning of a baseball game in Oakland, Calif., Thursday, May 7, 2009. Suzuki was safe at first and reached second base on the throwing error from Andrus. Oakland won 9-4. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

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Off topic, but for what it is worth, I liked going for it on 4th and 2 with 2 minutes to go last night.

The A.L. Rookie of the Year Award will be announced at 1 p.m. today, and of course, Elvis Andrus is considered one of the frontrunners for the award.

There are several viable candidates, so this isn't one of these things where, if Elvis isn't the winner, it is because he got screwed over by an ignorant collection of voters.

Anthony Andro predicts a third place finish for Elvis, behind (in some order) Rick Porcello and Andrew Bailey.

22 ESPN writers set forth their picks for ROY, and Elvis tied with Porcello at 7 votes apiece.

Richard Durrett runs down the pros and cons of Elvis's case for ROY.

And in non-Elvis news, David Brown takes a look at the possibility of C.J. Wilson joining the starting rotation.