SB Nation - John Mayberry Jr.

Hooverville!: Phillies 7, Marlins 6 (10)

dajafi — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 21:11:54 -0000

2 months ago: Florida Marlins shortstop Emilio Bonifacio puts the tag on Philadelphia Phillies' Ben Francisco reaching for the bag on a steal attempt in the second inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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Something strange happened over the course of three and a half hours of seemingly meaningless baseball on Sunday afternoon: I started to care whether the Phillies won this game. Maybe it was listening to the Marlins announcers, who deliver the sort of relentless and obnoxious boosterism I imagine one heard in mid-size midwestern towns around 1928. Maybe it was the ongoing redemption of Miguel Cairo, who made his last, best case for a spot on the postseason roster with a homer and a triple. Maybe it was just annoyance at the flat performances the Phils had turned in since clinching the division Wednesday night. Maybe it was a desire to see this year's team surpass last year's win total.

Whatever my reason, it seemed like the team gradually got into it too. They fell behind 2-0, 5-2, and 6-5, and came back every time, finally putting away the Marlins on a tenth-inning RBI single by third string catcher Paul Hoover off the glove of Florida's Wes Helms that scored John Mayberry Jr. Both players, who actually came off the bench during the game, are very unlikely to see the field again this October; but they, like fellow reserves Cairo, Eric Bruntlett, Greg Dobbs and Ben Francisco, played with a lot more energy than most of the Phils' regulars have shown since last week's clincher. (Francisco's three caught stealings, two on overslides of the second base bag, remind us that energy isn't everything, but still.) The one regular who did play was Jayson Werth, who couldn't pick up his 100th RBI--the Marlins intentionally walked him with Mayberry on second in the 10th--but did steal two bases to finish with 20 on the season.

On the pitching side, J.A. Happ allowed the obligatory two first-inning runs, pitched a scoreless second, and then took a seat. Kyle Kendrick started strongly with two scoreless innings, but allowed three runs in the fifth. Clay Condrey and Brett Myers recorded one out each, Sergio Escalona worked an inning and two-thirds, and Jack Taschner, Scott Eyre and Chad Durbin each pitched a scoreless frame as Charlie Manuel auditioned pretty much every reliever on the bubble for a first-round playoff roster spot.

Rockies manager Jim Tracy announced this afternoon that Ubaldo Jiminez is likely to be his Game One starter; the Phillies have yet to choose between Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels for the start of the Division Series on Wednesday.

Carlos vs. The Old Man: Cubs vs. Phillies Preview, Wednesday 7/22, 12:05 CT

Al — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 15:30:09 -0000

The Philadelphia skyline from the third level of Citizens Bank Park. It's the only place in the park you can see this. (BCB photo by Al)

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PHILADELPHIA -- They put the scoreboard in the wrong place at Citizens Bank Park. It's behind the left field stands -- which means that not only is it not visible from large swaths of seats, but it blocks what would have been a really nice view of the Philadelphia skyline that you can see in the photo I took before last night's game. Granted, there were low clouds blocking the view, but on a sunny day, that would have been a really nice vista. From my seat in the LF corner, you have to crane your neck to see the board. They put some of the information available there on other boards, but it's scattered around and hard to fix your eye on one place to find it all.

The board should have been placed in center field, where more people could see it.

Now, on to this afternoon's game, which the Cubs really need to win to complete a successful road trip. (It'd be nice to see the bats get going today, for one thing.)

When Jamie Moyer made his major league debut as a starter for the Cubs on June 16, 1986, coincidentally against the Phillies, the Cubs' leadoff hitter was Davey Lopes... who is now the Phillies' first base coach, and who turned 64 years old a couple of months ago. A couple of Moyer's current Phillies teammates, Cole Hamels and John Mayberry Jr., were not quite three years old when Moyer pitched in that game, a 7-5 win... against Hall of Famer Steve Carlton, who is four months older than Lopes.

Site note: I will be leaving to drive back home to Chicago (stopping overnight near Pittsburgh) right after today's game ends... thus this afternoon's recap will be delayed until I can get to my hotel room.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Carlos Zambrano Cubs	vs.	Jamie Moyer Phillies

6-4	W-L	9-6
3.36	ERA	5.58
88	SO	57
47	BB	26
7	HR	21
vs. Phi	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carlos Zambrano	6-4	23	17	0	0	0	0	107.0	94	44	40	7	47	88	3.36	1.32

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jamie Moyer	9-6	18	18	0	0	0	0	101.2	117	63	63	21	26	57	5.58	1.41

Jamie Moyer has been around long enough to have a hitter -- Alfonso Soriano -- have 50 career AB against him (.220, 4 HR). Derrek Lee has three doubles against him in eight AB, and today would be a good day to get Milton Bradley back in the lineup -- Bradley is 7-for-20 (.350) vs. Moyer with a double, a triple and 2 HR.

Carlos Zambrano is 3-3, 3.38 in seven career starts vs. the Phillies. Players currently on the Phils' active roster are hitting only .202 against Z (19-for-94) and none of them has homered off him. Z has kept his HR down this year -- only seven allowed -- and as I have often written, Z seems to be most successful when he has his heavy sinker working and gets more ground balls. Hopefully, that will be the case this afternoon.

The Cubs are again on WGN this afternoon. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Phillies site The Good Phight.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 1 pm, 2 pm and 2:45 pm CDT. Apologies for the third overflow yesterday -- it was supposed to post at 8:45 pm CDT, but I accidentally scheduled it an hour later. Thanks to clutch16 for posting the overflow-3 fanshot.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Phillies vs. Mets: July 3-5

Matt Swartz — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:38:48 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Joe Blanton closes out the series Sunday against Johan Santana. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

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After a 3-6 road trip, it seems the Phillies have finally solved their home field disadvantage...because they learned how to lose on the road, too. Well, they come home at a low point, just two games over .500 (39-37) and now tied with the Marlins for first, one game ahead of the Mets, and two ahead of the Braves. The Mets hobble into Philadelphia after winning a couple of one-run games against the Brewers to inch themselves back to .500. Suddenly, without doing all that much winning, the Mets are within striking distance. If they take two out of three, they'll be tied with the Phillies. If the Phillies can sweep them, they can increase their margin over the Mets all the way back to the four games that they found so comfortable a couple weeks ago. If the Mets sweep, it's suddenly the Phillies playing catch-up. It looks like we'll have quite a series on our hands.

The Phillies will call up Rodrigo Lopez to start Friday night's game. They still have not been able to fill the rotation spot since Myers went down, although Bastardo had a few good starts before getting injured. Fortunately for the Phillies, they will get to go up against Livan Hernandez, so it will probably be a high scoring battle.

Saturday night, Jamie Moyer will take another shot at the Mets team that has hit him so well. Fernando Nieve has been effective thus far in the majors this year, but his peripherals do not seem to indicate that performance is likely to last. This game could be pretty high scoring as well.

Joe Blanton's ERA is not so good, but he certainly has upped his performance this season. He's missing bats like never before, striking out nearly a batter per inning despite a career of mediocrity. There doesn't seem to be much cause if you look here. In fact, he doesn't seem to be missing any more bats than he used to, nor throwing more strikes. Seemingly, he just figured out a strategy to strike guys out for now. I doubt it will last, but hopefully he can fan a few Mets on Sunday. Johan Santana will close out the series for the Mets. He has had a few clunkers recently, but don't let the fool you. He's still one of the very best pitchers in the game and even the best have little runs of bad luck. The Phillies will have to be careful to build up his pitch count and foul off the pitches they can't hit well.

On the up side, Fernando Rodriguez threw 50 pitches in yesterday's Mets win and is probably unavailable tonight. They also used every other pitcher in their bullpen except for Bobby Parnell, so they could be vulnerable early in the series if the Phillies can knock Livan Hernandez or Fernando Nieve out early.

MATCHUPS:
Friday 7:05: Rodrigo Lopez (R) vs. Livan Hernandez (R)
Saturday 3:40: Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Fernando Nieve (R)
Sunday 1:35: Joe Blanton (R) vs. Johan Santana (L)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

METS

LINE UP

1) SS Alex Cora (L): .257/.356/.329

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 1B Daniel Murphy (L): .245/.313/.361

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

3) 3B David Wright (R): .338/.425/.488

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .288/.397/.508

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) RF Ryan Church (L): .292/.348/.392

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

6) CF Fernando Martinez (L):.178/.245/.278

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) C Brian Schneider (L): .239/.338/.418

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

8) 2B Luis Castillo (S):.274/.372/.327

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .262/.289/.418

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Argenis Reyes (S): .083/.154/.083

proj: .255/.300/.325
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 62%
iff: 0%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a good eye, pretty impatient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .697 vs .659 ops in minors; 1.7 vs 1.9 k/bb ops in minor
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like an opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .282/.313/.346

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .261/.335/.399
proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

1B/OF Nick Evans (R): .333/.360/.583

proj: .260/.320/.420
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 45%
iff: 10%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: poor eye, not impatient, so-so contact skill
r/l: .768 vs .914 ops; 2.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: CF Carlos Beltran (S): .336/.425/.527

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Livan Hernandez (R): 4.04 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 3/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Fernando Nieve (R): 2.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 3.34 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.71 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 14/40, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 4/25, 1 2B, 0 BB, 7 K
Utley: 4/24, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/23, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 6/22, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 7/20, 3 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 2/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/13, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.26 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.10 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 6/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 5/18, 1 2B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/17, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 6/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Tim Redding (R): 6.99 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.05 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 6/35, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 SF
Howard: 3/24, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Utley: 9/21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/19, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 7/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K
Stairs: 2/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 1/9, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Coste: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.04 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

DISABLED LIST: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.90 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 1.59 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/8, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB

Sean Green (R): 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 63% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Feliz: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.78 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/28, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/27, 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/19, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 5.22 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Feliz: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 3.78 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pat Misch (L): 1.80 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 66% fb, 22% ch, 12% cb, 1% sl
r/l: .827 vs .736 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .869 ops; 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb

Misch vs Phillies:

Victorino: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 BB< 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Elmer Dessens (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 8.46 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 65% fb, 35% sl
r/l: .726 vs .849 ops; 2.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .806 ops; 2.1 vs 2.1 k/bb

Dessens vs Phillies:

Stairs: 5/17, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Rollins: 5/15, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 1/7, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Feliz: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB< 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .209/.253/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .294/.360/.441

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.426/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.327/.532

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .264/.365/.480

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF John Mayberry (R): .250/.262/.575

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .287/.332/.414

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .238/.343/.371

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .250/.348/.390

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .134/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .244/.297/.451

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.420/.482

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .250/.250/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Lopez vs Mets:

Sheffield: 5/27, 3 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Reed: 2/14, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Church: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.05 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 5.88 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 14/61, 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K, 1 SF
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 19/41, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/33, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/20, 4 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 6/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Cora: 1/4, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac, 1 HBP
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Evans: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.08 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.98 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/21, 1 2B, 4 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 6/21, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Castillo: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 2/3,0 BB, 1 K
Sheffield: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.96 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 3/11, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 4/8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Church: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.98 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.57 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.46 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.63 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/15, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/9, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/9, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Reed: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
A.Reyes: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.29 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 3 K
Church: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.04 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.17 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/16, 5 BB, 1 K
Reed: 4/15, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/9, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
F.Martinez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.18 ERA, 9.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 6.39 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/26, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 2.00 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs. Mets:

Beltran: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): 2.84 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.18 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/6, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 53% in minors
pitches: 78% fb, 15% cb, 7% ch (in brief major league stint)
r/l: not a huge split in minors in terms of k/bb, RHB seem to hit it harder
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not faced any Mets

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

The Price is Wrong (I should be punched in the neck for this headline): Phillies 10, Rays 1

WholeCamels — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 02:47:15 -0000

The Price is Right losing horn (via Hicksatpd)

Now that's more like it. The Phillies did all they needed with two big innings -- a six run first, and a four run fourth, as they went on to beat the Tampa Bay Rays by a score of 10-1. Wunderkind David Price did not pitch well at all, but he certainly didn't get any help from his defense, with three total Rays errors. John Mayberry, Jr. put the game away with his three run homer in the first, giving the Phillies a 6-0 lead from which they never looked back. Shane Victorino and Chase Utley combined for five of the Phillies ten hits.

Jamie Moyer continued his mastery of Florida teams (insert "He's looking to retire to Boca! LOLOLOLOL" joke here), going six innings and allowing just one run. Tyler Walker and Sergio Escalona pitched three scoreless innings out of the bullpen to close the game out.

Cruise control. Kind of boring. But the good kind of boring.

Look! A lovely Fangraph, that resembles the continental shelf off the Pacific coast.

via www.fangraphs.com

Phillies vs Orioles: June 19-21

Matt Swartz — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 22:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Cole Hamels will pitch Sunday for the Phillies. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

Browse more photos »

After a disappointing sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays, the Philadelphia Phillies (36-28) still maintain a three-game lead over the Mets thanks to this weekend's opponent, the Baltimore Orioles (29-37), who took two out of three from the Mets. The Phillies have three games this weekend against the O's, who have a lot of promising young stars, but still struggle to compete in a tough division. The Orioles really do fall short with their pitching, although their young hitters are dangerous. In addition to reliable veterans Brain Roberts, and Aubrey Huff, the Orioles have Nick Markakis, who is quietly turning into one of the better hitters in the American League, Adam Jones, the steal of the Erik Bedard trade who his mashing this year, and the Orioles very own Messiah to combat ours, Matt Wieters. Wieters finally hit his first homerun this week against the Mets, though reports are that if he does not get the day off Sunday against Cole Hamels, the planet might explode. Either that or at least one of the websites linked in the previous sentence will be at least an exaggeration.

The Phillies send Antonio Bastardo out Friday night, looking to bounce back after his first poor start of the season. Bastardo allowed five runs in the first inning before a rain delay ended his night against the Red Sox. The Orioles reply with Rich Hill, who has been the victim of control problems, and if it were not for some luck on flyballs landing on the correct side of the fence, Hill's ERA would be in worse shape. Hill does not have a huge split , being mostly a fastball/curveball pitcher, so the Phillies should not have too much trouble with him.

The Orioles will send out RHP Brad Bergeson in Saturday night's game. Bergeson is a contact pitcher who gets a good number of groundballs. Taking good swings against him will be the key. The Phillies send J.A. Happ to the mound against him. Happ looked a little better than what he is after initially joining the rotation, though his last two starts have left something to be desired.

The Orioles send RHP Jeremy Guthrie to the mound on Sunday afternoon. Guthrie has had some bad luck this year, but is pretty much an average pitcher overall, in terms of control, command, and groundball tendencies. The Phillies send ace Cole Hamels to the mound on Sunday. American League teams have done their best with him this year by fouling off pitches and building up his pitch counts, and getting a shot against the bullpen. He'll try to go deeper into Sunday's game than he has in recent starts.

MATCHUPS

Friday, 7:05-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs. Rich Hill (L)

Saturday, 7:05-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Brad Bergeson (R)

Sunday, 1:35-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

ORIOLES

LINE UP

1) 2B Brian Roberts (S): .287/.352/.445

projection average (proj): .285/.365/.425
projected BB/PA (bb): 11%
projected K/AB (k): 16%
career gb% (gb): 38%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 7%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .325; i have him .318
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, good patience, good contact, sees a decent amount of strikes
righty/lefty (r/l): .802 vs .705 ops; 1.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .759 vs .786 ops; 1.2 vs 1.3 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter from both sides
anything else (other): better against groundball pitchers

2) RF Nick Markakis (L): .293/.356/.464

proj: .300/.380/.485
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 46%
iff: 6%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .335; i have him at .329.
s/c/z: okay eye, good patience, above average contact
r/l: .888 vs .753 ops; 1.3 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .867 vs .827 ops; 1.6 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around pretty evenly
other: much better against finesse pitcher

3) CF Adam Jones (R): .312/.368/.540

proj: .275/.325/.445
bb: 6%
k: 23%
gb: 46%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .325, but i have him at .306; my system is probably conservative since there isn't much data on him
s/c/z: impatient, bad eye, below average contact
r/l: .768 vs .729 ops; 6.1 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .760 vs .754 ops; 5.6 vs 3.7 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

4) 1B Aubrey Huff (L): .272/.335/.451

proj: .280/.345/.470
bb: 8.5%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .295; i have him around .299.
s/c/z: decent eye, decent contact
r/l: .856 vs .745 ops; 1.5 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .839 vs .808 ops; 1.6 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) 3B Melvin Mora (R): .277/.333/.339

proj: .270/.330/.425
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: i have him at .298 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: some patience and okay eye, pretty good contact
r/l: .786 vs .816 ops; 2.0 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .806 vs .782 ops; 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

6) DH Luke Scott (L): .306/.389/.594

proj: .260/.345/.480
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: most systems have him around .295; i have him at .286
s/c/z: okay eye but impatient, mediocre contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .874 vs .850 ops; 1.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .896 vs .841 ops; 1.5 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

7) C Matt Wieters (S): .259/.298/.407

proj: .295/.365/.485
bb: 11%
k: 19%
gb: 47% in minors
iff: 7% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .320
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, below average contact
r/l: seems pretty good both ways in minors, but better babip vs lhp
h/a: not enough info
p/o: ?
other: none

8) LF Nolan Riemold (R): .283/.372/.525

proj: .250/.320/.430
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 51%
iff: 20%
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: somewhat patient, average contact, pretty good eye
r/l: .870 vs 1.010 in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: ?
other: none

9) SS Robert Andino (R): .252/.292/.313

proj: .240/.295/.360
bb: 6%
k: 23%
gb: 54%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected all over the place, about .300 overall
s/c/z: not a great eye, not particularly patient, below average contact
r/l: .533 vs .594 ops; 3.4 vs 8.5 k/bb
h/a: .614 vs .488 ops; 4.5 vs 3.7 k/bb
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Greg Zaun (S): .209/.315/.295

proj: .250/.340/.390
bb: 12%
k: 16%
gb: 43%
iff: 14%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .265
s/c/z: patient with a good eye, above average contact
r/l: .722 vs .733 ops; 1.2 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: .734 vs .715 ops; 1.1 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter as righty, pull hitter as lefty
other: none

OF Felix Pie (L): .202/.279/.319

proj: .260/.315/.400
bb: 6.5%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .315
s/c/z: somewhat patient without a great eye, pretty good contact
r/l: .675 vs .278 ops; 3.2 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .609 vs .610 ops; 2.8 vs 3.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DH Ty Wigginton (R): .241/.280/.380

proj: .270/.335/.470
bb: 7.5%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: i project him at .304, which is about where other systems have him
s/c/z: impatient, okay eye, decent contact
r/l: .749 vs .858 ops; 3.0 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .809 vs .751 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

IF Oscar Salazar (R): .300/.300/.300

proj: .270/.330/.445
bb: 7%
k: 16%
gb: 42%
iff: 14%
ifh: 11%
babip: projected around .300
s/c/z: good eye, patient, slightly above average contact
r/l: .959 vs .596 ops; 1.0 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Rich Hill (L): 5.81 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.09 FIP, 33%

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% cb, 6% ch
r/l: .728 vs .651; 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .713 vs .713; 2.2 vs 2.1 k/bb

Hill vs Phillies:

Feliz: 3/14, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Brad Bergesen (R): 3.79 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 5.70 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 3.7 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 56%
pitches: 67% fb, 23% sl, 9% ch, 0.4% cb
r/l: .775 vs .736 ops; 4.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .777 vs .726 ops; 4.4 vs 0.8 k/bb

Bergesen: has not played any Phillies

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Jeremy Guthrie (R): 5.42 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.45 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 64% fb, 18% sl, 11% ch, 6% cb
r/l: .733 vs .761 ops; 2.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .788 vs .696 ops; 2.4 vs 1.8 k/bb

Guthrie vs Phillies:

Stairs: 3/18, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ibanez: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (2 IBB), 2 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

NOT FACING US: Koji Uehara (R): 4.30 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.43 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 30%
pitches: 57% fb, 32% sf, 6% ct, 3% ch, 2% ct
r/l: .715 vs .760 ops; 2.6 vs 5.0 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Uehara: has not faced any Phillies

NOT FACING US: Jason Berken (R): 6.84 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.21 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 5.35 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 49% in minors
pitches: 60% fb, 17% ch, 14% sl, 9% cb
r/l: slightly better at avoiding contact against rhb but wilder too
h/a: not enough info

Berken: has not played any Phillies:

BULLPEN

CL George Sherrill (L): 2.45 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.73 FIP, 26% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 32%
pitches: 72% fb, 27% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .773 vs .506 ops; 1.1 vs 4.7 k/bb
h/a: .672 vs .627 ops; 2.3 vs 2.1 k/bb

Sherrill vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez; 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jim Johnson (R): 2.87 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.64 FIp, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 56%
pitches: 79% fb, 12% cb, 9% ch
r/l: .662 vs .612 ops; 2.1 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: .663 vs .615 ops; 1.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Johnson vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K

Danys Baez (R): 3.03 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 61% GB, 4.22 FIP

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 60% fb, 31% sf, 8% cb, 1% ct, 0.2% sl
r/l: .648 vs .759 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .701 vs .705 ops; 2.0 vs 1.6 k/bb

Baez vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/4, 2 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Alberto Castillo (L): 3.86 ERA, 7.7 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 6.07 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 58% fb, 36% sl, 6% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .723 vs .762 ops; 2.1 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .564 vs .908 ops; 2.8 vs 1.4 k/bb

Castillo vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Mark Hendrickson (L): 5.61 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.86 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 60% fb, 12% ch, 23% cb, 4% ct
r/l: .826 vs .692 ops; 1.8 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .811 vs .777 ops; 1.9 vs 1.8 k/bb

Hendrickson vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/18, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 3/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Utley: 4/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/8, 1 BB, 5 K
Ibanez: 1/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Bass (R): 3.92 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.29 FIP, 66% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 60%
pitches: 66% fb, 18% sl, 11% cb, 5% ch, 0.1% sf
r/l: .862 vs .717 ops; 2.0 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .755 vs .859 ops; 1.8 vs 1.4 k/bb

Bass vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Matt Albers (R): 3.86 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.93 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 72% fb, 26% cb, 2% ch
r/l: .812 vs .763 ops; 1.9 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .721 vs .860 ops; 1.8 vs 1.1 k/bb

Albers vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1 BB (IBB)
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .225/.263/.350

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .295/.351/.451

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .308/.441/.567

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.331/.552

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .261/.350/.466

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) RF Greg Dobbs (L): .186/.258/.373

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .308/.354/.429

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .270/.391/.435

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .253/.354/.422

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .163/.259/.245

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Matt Stairs (L): .282/.451/.538

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .000/.000/.000

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

OF John Mayberry (R): .286/.286/.786

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

Chan Ho Park (R): 4.50 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.14 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Orioles:

Huff: 4/11, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Zaun: 4/10, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Mora: 3/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Roberts: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 1.00 ERA, 10.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Orioles:

Roberts: 3/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Huff: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Mora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Zaun: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Wigginton: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 43%

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Orioles:

Mora: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
ROberts: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac

DISABLED LIST: Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.15 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Orioles:

Wigginton: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Huff: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Mora: 1 BB
Roberts: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Orioles:

Huff: 3/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott: 2/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Roberts: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 1 BB
Mora: 1 BB

Phillies at Dodgers: June 4-7

Matt Swartz — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 22:49:14 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

J.C. Romero is back with the Phillies, in time to face the team that leads the NL in runs. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (31-20) head to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers (37-18), on the heels of two sweeps. The Dodgers continue to surge as well, having taken two of three from the Diamondbacks and winning eight of the their last ten games. The Phillies now have the second best record in the majors, but the Dodgers have the best record. Both teams send three lefties to the mound in four games.

MATCHUPS:

Thursday, 10:10-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Clayton Kershaw (L)

Friday, 10:10-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Eric Milton (L)

Saturday, 4:10-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Hiroki Kuroda (R)

Sunday, 8:00-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs Randy Wolf (L)

Below the jump, I preview all the players, splits, and matchups.

DODGERS

LINE UP

1) OF Juan Pierre (L): .371/.434/.483

proj: .285/.325/.360
bb: 5.5%
k: 7%
gb: 56%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: he's projected around average (.300) but my research puts him closer to .310 he's very fast though not powerful and does popout a little. however, he spreads the ball around pretty well.
s/c/z: quite bad eye the past few years despite having a good eye early in career, somewhat impatient, great contact skill
r/l: .726 vs .694 ops; 0.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .735 vs .700 ops; 0.9 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: slight opposite field hitter
other: none

2) SS Rafael Furcal (S): .244/.308/.301

projection average (proj): .285/.355/.410
projected BB/PA (bb): 10%
projected K/AB (k): 13.5%
career gb% (gb): 50%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 12%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 7%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected slightly above average due to speed; he spreads the ball around well and gets a decent number of infield hits so the .315-ish BABIP projection makes sense
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye and patient, good contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .749 vs .801 ops; 1.4 k/bb both ways; more power as RHB
home/away (h/a): .821 vs .705 ops; 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; much more power at home
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other):

3) 2B Orlando Hudson (S): .329/.410/.468

proj: .280/.355/.415
bb: 16%
k: 15%
gb: 49%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected above average (.315-ish)-- pretty good at avoiding infield flies and has done very well on line drives historically despite unamazing power; my research indicates he should be around .323
s/c/z: very good eye and pretty patient; pretty good contact skill too
r/l: .808 vs .709 ops; 1.6 k/bb both ways
h/a: .824 vs .745 ops; 1.6 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter as RHB but opposite field hitter as LHB
other: better against groundball pitchers (.835 vs .703 ops)

4) RF Andre Ethier (L): .262/.363/.435

proj: .295/.365/.470
bb: 9.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 42%
iff: 4%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected high (.330-ish) which makes sense given that he rarely pops out, and hits his flyballs far; my research suggests he should be around .335
s/c/z: pretty good eye and good contact skill (especially high given high strikeout rate)
r/l: .882 vs .758 ops; 1.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .889 vs .822 ops; 1.3 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

5) C Russell Martin (R): .267/.377/.318

proj: .285/.380/.430
bb: 12.5%
k: 15%
gb: 50%
iff: 12%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .315, but my research sees him around average (.301) since he pops out a lot and isn't especially fast
s/c/z: very patient, pretty good eye, average contact
r/l: .762 vs .900 ops; 1.3 vs 0.8 k/bb
h/a: .803 vs .786 ops; 1.1 vs 1.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

6) 1B James Loney (L): ..284/.350/.379

proj: .295/.350/.455
bb: 8%
k: 15%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .320, probably because he hits a lot of balls hard. my research suggest around .309.
s/c/z: not so great eye but close to to average, good contact skill, thrown a lot of pitches out of the strike zone
r/l: .865 vs .731 ops; 1.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .729 vs .925 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

7) CF Matt Kemp (R): .310/.376/483

proj: .300/.350/475
bb: 7%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 3%
ifh: 10%
babip: extremely high BABIP on groundballs which makes sense somewhat given infield hit rate, but .354 career seems high. however, my research sees him coming in around .352. Avoiding popouts explains why his BABIP is high on flyballs and he hits balls hard, so he should be good on flyballs. projected .360 BABIP isn't all that ridiculous, but probably should be lower.
s/c/z: good eye, poor contact
r/l: .782 vs .930 ops; 4.1 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .865 vs .787 ops; 3.7 vs 3.4 k/bb; much power at home
p/o: pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers (do the dodgers play the same terrible groundball pitcher or something?)

8) 3B Casey Blake (R): .295/.368/.542

proj: .265/.335/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 22%
gb: 40%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .310. my research puts him around .315. he doesn't popout much and gets a decent number of infield hits.
s/c/z: patient hitter with okay eye and slightly below average contact skill
r/l: .765 vs .822 ops; 2.8 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .726 vs .832 ops; 2.4 k/bb both ways
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Brad Ausmus (R): .314/.368/.343

proj: .220/.300/.290
bb: 9.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 51%
iff: 10%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .270, which makes sense given his mediocre strikeout rate, weak power, his propensity to pop out, and his slow speed.
s/c/z: good eye, patient, decent contact
r/l: .653 vs .729 ops; 1.8 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .700 vs .641 ops; 1.4 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Mark Loretta (R): .288/.408/.339

proj: .275/.340/.365
bb: 9%
k: 11%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around average which seems about right.
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, very good contact
r/l: .742 vs .805 ops; 1.4 vs 0.7 k/bb
h/a: .802 vs .722 ops; 0.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Juan Castro (R): .326/.396/.435

proj: .220/.270/.320
bb: 5.5%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected very low (around .260). he doesn't have much power and isn't particularly fast, so this could be right.
s/c/z: good eye, not very patient, average contact
r/l: .605 vs .582 ops; 4.1 vs 1.8 k/bb; much more power against RHB though
h/a: .600 vs .598 ops; 3.3 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Jamie Hoffman (R): .167/.150/.144

proj: .250/.305/.360
bb: 7%
k: 18%
gb: 37% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: looks like he's projected to be average but not much info
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: better eye against lefties in minors so better but tought to tell
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

THURSDAY OPPONENT: Clayton Kershaw (L): 4.34 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.11 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% cb, 5% ch, 0.3% sl
r/l: .752 vs .741 ops; 1.8 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .667 vs .843 ops; 2.9 vs 1.4 k/bb

Kershaw vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/7, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Utley: 2/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 2/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

FRIDAY STARTER: Eric Milton (L): 3.14 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 31%
pitches: 66% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 6% sl, 0.2% ct
r/l: .775 vs .807 ops; 2.4 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: .779 vs .784 ops; 2.7 vs 2.2 k/bb

Milton vs Phillies:

Stairs: 4/23, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 9 K
Feliz: 6/11, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 4/12, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 3/6, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
WertH: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Hiroki Kuroda (R): 2.53 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.77 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 51%
pitches: 59% fb, 26% sl, 12% sf, 2% ct, 0.2% cb
r/l: .605 vs .703 ops; 3.7 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .615 vs .688 ops; 4.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Kuroda vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Rollins: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Utey: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Randy Wolf (L): 3.21 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.03 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 60% fb, 18% cb, 13% sl, 9% ch
r/l: .761 vs .706 ops; 2.1 vs 3.1 k/bb
h/a: .724 vs .776 ops; 2.4 vs 2.1 k/bb

Wolf vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/16, 3 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Ibanez: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/6, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/3, 2 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Chad Billingsley (R): 2.59 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 2.85 FIP, 49% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 59% fb, 19% ct, 18% cb, 2% ch, 2% sl
r/l: .634 vs .766 ops; 2.8 vs 1.5 k/bb
h/a: .702 vs .695 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Billingsley vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/12, 2 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 2/8, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 SF
Utley: 2/7, 3 BB (2 IBB), 4 K
Victorino: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Werth: 2/7, 2 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 3/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL: Jonathan Broxton (R): 1.33 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 14.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.26 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 3.00 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 75% fb, 22% sl, 3% ch
r/l: .539 vs .694 ops; 7.7 vs 1.7 k/bb (major difference is walks)
h/a: .559 vs .671 ops; 3.5 vs 2.9 k/bb

Broxton vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 0/6, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 4 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/2, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ronald Belisario (R): 2.23 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.61 FIP, 59% GB

proj avg: 6.00 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 57%
pitches: 81% fb, 18% sl, 0.4% ch
r/l: .533 vs .862 ops; 8k/0bb vs rhb, 9k/7bb vs lhb
h/a: .769 vs .615; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb

Belisario vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1 BB
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Cory Wade (R): 4.82 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.20 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 56% fb, 28% cb, 16% ch
r/l: .588 vs .584 ops; 2.3 vs 8.7 k/bb (not much data)
h/a: .421 vs .730 ops; 6.2 vs 2.2 k/bb (not much data)

Wade vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Guillermo Mota (R): 6.53 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.47 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 55% fb, 25% sl, 20% ch, 0.3% sf
r/l: .678 vs .727 op; 2.6 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .720 vs .680 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb

Mota vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 3/9, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 2/4, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Utley: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brent Leach (L): 5.63 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 11.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.15 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 50% in minors last year
pitches: ?
r/l: 1.9 vs 1.6 k/bb in minors last year
h/a: not enough info

Leach vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ramon Troncoso (R): 1.83 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.77 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 71% fb, 23% ch, 4% sl, 0.5% ct
r/l: .647 vs .633 ops; 2.6 vs 4.5 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .617 ops; 3.5 vs 2.9 k/bb

Troncoso vs Phillies:

Utley: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1 BB

Jeff Weaver (R): 4.05 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.57 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 5.15 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 50% fb, 20% sl, 16% cb, 7% ct, 8% ch
r/l: .687 vs .858 ops; 3.4 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .770 vs .785 ops; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb

Weaver vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 13/34, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 5/21, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Stairs: 7/17, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 5/14, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/5, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Travis Schlichting (R): has not played

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 40% in mionrs
pitches: ?
r/l: better control against RHB in minors
h/a: not enough info

Schlichting: has not played any Phillies

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .229/.270/.336

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .300/.349/.465

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .298/.437/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .266/.348/.591

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall-- my system sees him at .310.
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .251/.346/.448

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .337/.395/.703

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .298/.356/.421

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .291/.419/.477

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288, but he seems to have trouble matching projections for him.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .135/.190/.243

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .200/.288/.378

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .303/.477/.606

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

OF John Mayberry Jr. (R): .222/.222/.667

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

C Chris Coste (R): .246/.364/.446

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

ROTATION

THURSDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 5.21 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.45 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Dodgers:

Blake: 4/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Hudson: 2/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Kemp: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Loney: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 3/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Pierre: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Ethier: 0/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Ausmus: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Furcal: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Loretta: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

FRIDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.75 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.56 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Dodgers:

Loretta: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF
Hudson: 6/22, 3 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Blake: 3/19, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Ausmus: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K
Pierre: 3/13, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Furcal: 4/10, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Kemp: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

SATURDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.86 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1/21, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 Sac
Kemp: 2/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Ethier: 4/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Hudson: 2/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Frucal: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): 1.50 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 4.65 FIP, 19% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played Padres

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.48 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1 SF
Kemp: 1 BB
Loney: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.40 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 5.94 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Dodgers:

Pierre: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Furcal: 0/8, 1 BB, 4 K
Castro: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Loretta: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Hudson: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Ethier: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Kemp: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Martin: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.39 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.93 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Dodgers:

Furcal: 3/18, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
Pierre: 3/14, 1 3B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Hudson: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ethier: 1/7, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 3/7, 2 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Loney: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 1 BB, 2 Sac
Kemp: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Castro: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 2.84 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 6.31 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Dodgers:

Loretta: 4/15, 2 BB, 4 K
Furcal: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Pierre: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac
Ausmus: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Castro: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Hudson: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Martin: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.81 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Dodgers:

Ethier: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Loney: 2/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Furcal: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Blake: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ausmus: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.23 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.03 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Dodgers:

Blake: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Kemp: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 1/5, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Martin: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ethier: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Loretta: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ausmus: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Furcal: 0/1, 0BB, 0K
Pierre: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 2.20 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Dodgers:

Ethier: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 7/8, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 4/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loney: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Furcal: 3/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Martin: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Blake: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Castro: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ausmus: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Loretta: 1 BB

Chan Ho Park (R): 7.32 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.23 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Dodgers:

Pierre: 13/28, 3 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 1 K, 2 Sac
Furcal: 8/25, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Loretta: 7/23, 0 BB, 5 K
Ausmus: 4/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 5 K, 2 Sac
Hudson: 5/14, 2 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Ethier: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Castro: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Martin: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Blake: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Kemp: 1/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Loney: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 0.00 ERA, 6.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.90 FIP, 25% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Dodgers:

Blake: 1/10, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Ausmus: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Ethier: 2/3, 2 BB, 0 K
Hudson: 0/1, 3 BB, 1 K
Loney: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Pierre: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Furcal: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Loretta: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Martin: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Kemp: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Phillies at Padres: June 1-3

Matt Swartz — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 21:00:20 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Adrian Gonzalez leads the majors in homeruns despite hitting at Petco Park. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies crept back barely into first place this weekend, maintaining a half game lead by sweeping the Nationals. The Padres had an early season lead in the West when they came to Philadelphia during the second weekend of the season, and they took two of three from the Phillies before the fourth game of the series was rained out. Now, the Padres are back down to .500 at 25-25. The Phillies themselves sit in first at 28-20.

Monday's game pits Joe Blanton against Kevin Correia. Correia is an okay pitcher who is able to put up decent number in a pitcher's park, though not particularly this year. Blanton is coming off a solid starts in which he pitched seven scoreless innings and struck out a career high eleven batters.

Tuesday's game will be a tough one as still-a-Padre Jake Peavy goes up against Antonio Bastardo, who will be making his major league debut. Bastardo is a lefty who has torn through AA and AAA this year, earning him the start in Myers' stead. Peavy is putting up another solid season, despite swirling trade rumors.

Wednesday's game pits the Phillies' J.A. Happ against the Padres' Chris Young. Chris Young has been okay this year, but has struggled to strike out as many hitters and has walked quite a few more as well. Happ has been solid in his first couple starts since joining the rotation after a solid display in the bullpen early on.

All three games will be pretty late in the eastern time zone, so stay tuned to The Good Phight for coverage if you have some silly reason that you can't stay up til one in the morning.

MATCHUPS

Monday, 10:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Kevin Correia (R)

Tuesday, 10:05-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs Jake Peavy (R)

Wednesday, 10:05-- J.A. Happ (L) vs Chris Young (R)

After the jump, I breakdown the players and their splits.

PADRES

LINE UP

(1) RF Brian Giles (L): .192/.282/.285

proj: .280/.375/.420
bb: 13%
k: 12%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: excellent eye and excellent contact skill
r/l: .966/.788 ops; 0.6 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: about the same
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

(2) 2B David Eckstein (R): .246/.326/.322

proj: .275/.340/.350
bb: 7%
k: 9%
gb: 47%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: pretty good on groundballs but pretty low on line drives, high groundball rate helps-- about average overall
s/c/z: very good contact and sees a lot of pitches in zone. swings at below average number of strikes but average number of non-strikes.
r/l: .700/.741 ops; k/bb is 1.2 vs 0.8
h/a: .738/.687
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: used to steal bases more frequently but only tried 3 times last year and was caught once. He hasn't tried to steal yet this year. In 2007, he cut back to 11 attempts.

(3) OF Scott Hairston (R): .326/.387/.560

proj: .255/.325/.465
bb: 8.5%
k: 23%
gb: 36%
iff: 16%
ifh: 12%
babip: slightly below average, .290ish, since he pops out a lot, but good on groundball since he gets infield hits and decent on line drives as he has some power
s/c/z: slightly below average contact
r/l: 3.5 vs 2.5 k/bb; .712 vs .842 ops
h/a: a bit better at home in career but seemingly mostly luck so far
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(4) 1B Adrian Gonzalez (L): .287/.394/.641

proj: .280/.355/.500
bb: 10%
k: 21%
gb: 41%
iff: 5%
ifh: 2%
babip: above average, around .315, rarely pops out, though doesn't get many infield hits. power indicates he should do well on linedrives
s/c/z: swings at average amount of balls, but lets fewer strikes pass than other players; somewhat below average contact
r/l: .886/.743 ops; 1.9 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: far more power on road (park effects) but slightly better k/bb at home (1.9 vs 2.4) and better babip at home (.328 vs .283)
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well for power hitter
other: far more success against finesse pitchers

(5) 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (R): .228/.281/.348

proj: .275/.325/.455
bb: 5.5%
k: 20%
gb: 41%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: average all around, low on groundballs and high on flyballs due to infield hit/fly rates
s/c/z: free swinger and chases a lot of pitches while at it, pitchers don't throw him that many pitches out of strike zone, despite that and somewhat low contact rate
r/l: typical
h/a: better on road, even at k/bb rates
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitchers

(6) LF Chase Headley (S): .236/.309/.366

proj: .265/.345/.430
bb: 10%
k: 27%
gb: 38%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: projection systems have him high-- like .330s+, but it seems like it he should be around .310 or so, since even though he pops out rarely, he doesn't get many infield hits and his groundball rate was abnormally high last year. even then, given that his eye is nothing special and his contact skills aren't great, he's likely due for a drop-- i think his overall projections are probably high
s/c/z: not a great eye and prone to chase, poor contact skills
r/l: only 140 career PA as RHB so it's tough to know
h/a: not enough info, so far better away but mostly luck based stats
p/o: definite pull hitter both ways
other:

(7) C Nick Hundley (R): .250/.348/.408

proj: .235/.285/.400
bb: 7%
k: 23%
gb: 37%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected to be poor and tough to tell from small mlb sample size
s/c/z: average all around so far, it seems
r/l: very small sample size but 5.0 vs 2.9 k/bb difference
h/a: 3.1 vs 5.3 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

(8) SS Chris Burke (R): .206/.270/.324

proj: .245/.325/.370
bb: 9%
k: 17.5%
gb: 38%
iff: 18%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .285 which might be a little high given popout rate and lack of significant power or contact skill, though he has some success with groundball babip
s/c/z: decent eye, somewhat patient, okay contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .648 vs .730 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .708 vs .652 ops; 2.1 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Henry Blanco (R): .172/.273/.345

proj: .240/.290/.350
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: not much power and tendency to pop up; below average
s/c/z: good eye, okay contact
r/l: a little more power right-handed
h/a: a little better k/bb at home but fewer extra base hits
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

IF Edgar Gonzalez (R): .180/.261/.426

proj: .270/.330/.400
bb: 8%
k: 22%
gb: 46%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: definitely above average, rarely pops out and makes solid contact
s/c/z: great eye and good contact
r/l: k/bb of 4.7 vs 1.6; .685 vs .750 ops
h/a: typical given park effects
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Josh Wilson (R): .209/.292/.279

proj: .245/.305/.365
bb: 7%
k: 20%
gb: 43%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected slightly below average, around .295, which seems about right
s/c/z: not a great eye but somewhat patient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .600 vs .594 ops in 259/104 PAs; 3.3 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .578 vs .623 ops; 4.9 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

OF Tony Gwynn Jr. (L): .320/.393/.440

proj: .250/.315/.330
bb: 8%
k: 16.5%
gb: 49%
iff: 5%
ifh: 8%
babip: projected around .305 which seems about right
s/c/z: very patient with pretty good eye and above average contact, sees a decent amount of strikes
r/l: .599 vs .688 but only 30 career PA vs LHP; 2.3 vs 4.5 k/bb
h/a: .585 vs .628 ops; 1.6 vs 4.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

OF Cliff Floyd (L): 0 for1 with 1 K

proj: .255/.340/.410
bb: 9.5%
k: 20%
gb: 42%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .290 which could be right given powerful slow popout hitter
s/c/z: good eye with so-so contact, but his eye is actually deteriorated
r/l: .856 vs .793 ops; 1.5 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .861 vs .823 ops; 1.7 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY OPPONENT: Kevin Correia (R): 5.11 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 42%

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 60% fb, 27% sl, 9% ch, 4% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.2; .762 vs .819
h/a: similar

Correia vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 3/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Jake Peavy (R): 3.67 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 10.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.13 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 57% fb, 18% sl, 17% ct, 7% cb, 6% ch
r/l: 3.8 vs 2.6 k/bb, .603 vs .740 ops
h/a: .614/.737 ops's, 3.7/2.5 k/bb's

Peavy vs Phillies:

Feliz: 8/39, 2 2B< 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 3/12, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/11, 0 BB, 7 K
Howard: 2/8, 1 2B< 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Utley: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Chris Young (R): 4.45 eRA, 4.45 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.85 ERA, 3.85 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 28%
pitches: 75% fb, 18% sl, 5% ch, 2% cb
r/l: 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb, .647 vs .674 ops
h/a: 2.8 vs 2.1 k/bb

Young vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 6/23, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/15, 1 Bb, 3 K
Utley: 4/11, 1 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Howard: 1/5, 1 2B, 4 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 2/4, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Josh Geer (R): 5.17 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 5.20 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 64% fb, 22% ch, 14% sl

Geer vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez; 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Chad Gaudin (R): 4.76 ERA, 5.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 3.94 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 64% fb, 28 sl, 8% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: .744 vs .812 ops; 2.7 vs 0.8 k/bb
h/a: .780 vs .773 ops; 1.6 vs 1.5 k/bb

Gaudin vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/18, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 2/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 3/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Dobbs: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

BULPEN

CL Heath Bell (R): 1.27 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 11.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.57 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 72% fb, 28% sl
r/l: 4.7 vs 2.2 k/bb but .687 vs .616 ops since more power surrendered to lhb
h/a: .573/.726 ops split but k/bb even

Bell vs Phillies:

Utley: 2/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 0/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
WertH: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Edward Mujica (R): 2.49 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 28%
pitches: 67% fb, 9% sl, 6% cb, 2% ch, 17% sf
r/l: 8.0 k/bb vs righties, but mostly just no walks; 1.5 k/bb vs lefties in minimal experience
h/a: not enough info

Mujica vs Phillies:

Cairo: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Greg Burke (R): 1.35 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.96 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 53% in majors so far
pitches: 71% fb, 28% sl, 1% ch
r/l: not much of a clear split in minors
h/a: not enough info

Burke: has not played any Phillies

Cla Meredith (R): 3.06 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.73 FIP, 61% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 69%
pitches: 79% fb (I think sinkers count as fastballs on fangraphs), 18% sl, 3% ch
r/l: 4.3 vs 1.4; .612 vs .794: major ROOGY
h/a: .637 vs .721 and 2.9 vs 2.7 k/bb

Meredith vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/9, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Ibanez: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Luke Gregerson (R): 3.38 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 3.09 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: unprojected
gb: very high groundball rates in minors
pitches: 55% fb, 33% sl, 9% ch, 3% cb in majors so far
r/l: much better against righties and walks a lot of lefties in minors
h/a: not enough info

Gregerson vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Joe Thatcher (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 78% fb, 13% sl, 6% ct, 1% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .717 vs .978 ops in majors with 1.1 vs 3.0 k/bb-- reverse split
h/a: 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb; .725 vs .851 ops

Thatcher vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Luis Perdomo (R): 4.70 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 4.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 47% in AAA
pitches: ?
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Perdomo vs Phillies:

Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1 BB
Werth: 1 BB

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .226/.270/.337

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .293/.342/.449

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .294/.430/.550

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .266/.340/.573

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing balls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though. my system sees him at .310.
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .253/.342/.460

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .332/.394/.684

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .302/.365/.432

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .304/.427/.506

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

BENCH

C Chris Coste (R): .254/.356/.460

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .118/.179/.235

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .132/.250/.211

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .281/.465/.594

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

OF John Mayberry Jr. (R): .222/.222/.667

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 6.14 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.80 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Padres:

Gonzalez: 2/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Eckstein: 3/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Giles: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): has not played in majors 2009; but in AA: 1.82 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 0.3 HR/9 in 34.2 IP; in AAA: 2.08 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 0.7 HR/9 in 13 IP

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played Padres

WEDNESDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Padres:

Hundley: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Kouzmanoff: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Giles: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 5.21 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Padres:

Giles: 3/17, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
A.Gonzalez: 5/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Burke: 4/15, 1 BB, 6 K
Kouzmanoff: 2/12, 0 BB, 2 K
Hairston: 4/10, 2 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Eckstein: 3/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF
Headley: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 1/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.75 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.57 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Padres:

Eckstein: 14/56, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Giles: 4/17, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K
A.Gonzalez: 5/15, 3 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sf
Kouzmanoff: 5/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Blanco: 5/11, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/7, 0 BB, 0 K
Hariston: 0/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Burke: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hundley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.71 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.08 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Padres:

Eckstein: 2/8, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Giles: 2/8, 1 3B, 2 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Kouzmanoff: 3/5, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Blanco: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Gerut: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Hundley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.49 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.90 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Padres:

A.Gonzalez: 4/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Giles: 3/8, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Eckstein: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 3.09 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 6.50 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Padres:

Giles: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Eckstein: 3/7, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Burke: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gerut: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.82 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Padres:

Giles: 3/17, 1 3B, 2 BB, 4 K
A.Gonzalez: 5/12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 HBP
Hairston: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Kouzmanoff: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Eckstein: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.50 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Padres:

Eckstein: 1/11, 0 BB, 0 K
Giles: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kouzmanoff: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.20 ERA, 2.8 B/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Padres:

Burke: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Eckstein: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Giles: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kouzmanoff: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.57 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Padres:

Eckstein: 7/23, 2 2B, 4 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Giles: 7/19, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/11, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K, 1 HBP
Gerut: 2/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Burke: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Kouzmanoff: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K
A.Gonzalez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SUSPENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Padres:

Giles: 1/8, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Gerut: 0/7, 2 BB, 3 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Eckstein: 0/3 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kouzmanoff: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Blanco: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Phillies vs. Nationals: May 29-31

Matt Swartz — Fri, 29 May 2009 22:30:34 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

The Phillies phight on without Brett Myers this weekend against the Nationals. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

Browse more photos »

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-20) take on the ever-struggling Washington Nationals (13-33) again, who are coming off being swept by the Mets in New York. The Phillies have just fallen a half game out of first place, after a disappointing rubber match with the Florida Marlins in which Brett Myers left with an injury that looks likely to end his season and quite possibly his career with the Phillies. This series, the Phillies rotation goes on, but they will need to decide who starts in Myers' place against San Diego next week. For this series, the Phillies send out rookie J.A. Happ for just his second start of the season on Friday night, up against fellow rookie Ross Detwiler who has only started two games this season. He has performed fairly well in those two starts, though they were only against the Pirates and the Orioles. The lefty will have a tougher matchup with the Philadelphia lineup. While Detwiler is a lefty, he does not have significant splits in the minor leagues, and he probably won't have a particularly easy time with the Phillies left-handed bats. On Saturday, Phillies send ace Cole Hamels out on the mound where they hope he will continue his run of four consecutive quality starts and what could have been six consecutive quality starts if not for a couple of freak injuries that cut them short. Hamels comes off a solid performance in a no decision against the Yanekes in which he struggled with pitch count, but did strike out Alex Rodriguez three times. There's no one that dangerous in the Nats lineup, but they are an above average offensive club with a few weapons in the middle of the lineup. The Nationals will send out Shairon Martis, a young righthander who has good numbers thus far but his peripherals don't indicate that those numbers will stick. On Sunday, the Phillies will gave Jamie Moyer another shot to stop looking his age. Moyer has only one quality start in nine tries this year, and has yet to surrneder fewer than seven hits in a game. The Nationals send out John Lannan who managed not to injure any Phillies last time out.

This year the Phillies are 7-2 against the Nationals, which has certainly helped them stay near first place. The Phillies hope to continue that run against the Nationals who have fallen further and further as the year has gone on. The Nationals continue to have a solid offense, but their pitching has been completely disastrous. The Phillies have wreaked havoc on the Nats' staff, and have scored 65 runs in those nine games against them (7.2 RS/G).

MATCHUPS:

Friday, 7:05-- J.A. Happ (L) vs Ross Detwiler (L)
Saturday, 7:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Shairon Martis (R)
Sunday, 1:35-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs John Lannan (L)

After the jump, I preview the individual players with their stats and splits.

NATIONALS

LINEUP

(1) SS Cristian Guzman (S): .340/.352/.465

proj: .295/.335/.420
bb: 5%
k: 12%
gb: 55%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: solid ground ball rate puts him around .315-.320. My system puts him at .314.
s/c/z: fair strike judgment but plus contact skill
r/l: poorer strike zone judgment as rhb but more power
h/a: .743/.645 career
p/o: more of a pull hitter against rhb, but some pull tendencies against lhb too
other: none

(2) 1B Nick Johnson (L): .337/.440/.464

proj: .270/.410/.470
bb: 17%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: doesn't tend to do well on groundballs in general, but does decently otherwise, about average. My system does not project him as he had less than 300 PA last year.
s/c/z: does not swing much, but especially good at laying off balls; contact rate about average though
r/l: no major split at all
h/a: no major split at all
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: much better babip with runners on thus far; probably hooks ball in hole a lot

(3) 3B Ryan Zimmerman (R): .333/.400/.574

proj: .285/.350/.475
bb: 8.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: tends to hit around .315 on BIP since he hits a lot of groundballs in the whole. My system puts him at .314.
s/c/z: about average across the board
r/l: .758/.931; 2.6 k/bb vs rhp, 1.2 vs lhp; and slightly more power against lhp too
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

(4) LF Adam Dunn (L): .283/.417/.608

proj: .245/.380/.490
bb: 17.5%
k: 31%
gb: 34%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: somewhat low, around .290 career, mostly bc of low babip on groundballs due to the shift. My system puts him at .278.
s/c/z: good eye, laying off pitches out of the strike zone; poor contact skills but not as bad as you might expect; sees few strikes
r/l: .932/.833; biggest difference is 1.4 k/bb vs rhb and 2.0 k/bb vs lhb
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: definitepull hitter
other: nothing abnormal; power lefties tend to do better with men on, but he hasn't in his career

(5) RF Austin Kearns (R): .213/.341/.389

proj: .260/.350/.410
bb: 11%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6.5%
babip: average all around. My system has him at .299.
s/c/z: very good eye with average contact skill
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhp, 1.1 k/bb vs lhp; only .775/.827 split overall career though
h/a: no major split
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

(6) CF Willie Harris (L): .261/.402/.406

proj: .255/.345/.390
bb: 10.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 48%
iff: 10%
ifh: 7%
babip: average all around-- my system has him at .302.
s/c/z: does not swing much
r/l: better vs rhp, primarily due to k/bb difference (1.5 vs 3.2)
h/a: not much difference
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

(7) 2B Anderson Hernandez (S): .278/.363/.343

proj: .240/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 7%
ifh: 9%
babip: slightly below average due to weak hits and poor contact, but he's bound to be good on groundballs. My system does not project him since he had less than 300 PA last year.
s/c/z: average thus far
r/l: probably a little better as rhb against lhp
h/a: not enough info
p/o: so far he seems to be a bit of an opposite field hitter
other: none

(8) C Wil Nieves (R): .283/.328/.317

proj: .245/.290/.325
bb: 5.5%
k: 14%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: lack of power leads to it being below average since its low on flyballs; lack of speed leads to pretty low babip on groundballs too. My system does not project him.
s/c/z: poor strike zone judgment, but not terrible
r/l: seems typical but not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around evenly
other: none

BENCH

OF Josh Willingham (R): .228/.355/.465

proj: .265/.355/.485
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: average all around-- my system has him at .305.
s/c/z: low swing rate in general, average contact skill
r/l: better k/bb and power numbers vs lhb but reverse babip split masks that
h/a: seemingly better on the road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

IF Ronnie Belliard (R): .164/.222/.254

proj: .270/.330/.420
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: below average by a little due to lack of power according to most systems, but my system has him at .308.
s/c/z: average across the board
r/l: .727/.828
h/a: .773/.739
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Justin Maxwell (R): .150/.320/.200

proj avg: .240/.320/.430
bb: 9%
k: 24%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 17% in minors in 2008
ifh: n/a
babip: seems bad, but little info
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: much, much better agianst lhp in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

C Josh Bard (S): .179/.200/.256

proj: .265/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 15%
gb: 50%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: about average overall; a little below average on groundballs since he doesn't get many infield hits and a bit high on flyballs since he doesn't pop out in the infield much
s/c/z: above average contact skill, average strike zone judgment
r/l: no major split
h/a: better k/bb at home (1.3 vs 1.8) and more power at home, but babip higher on road; probably still better at home despite babip causing reverse platoon split
p/o: spreads ball around as lhb but slight pull hitter as rhb
other: none

C Luke Montz (R): has not played yet in 2009

proj: .230/.305/.380
bb: 9%
k: 23%
gb: about 40% in minors
iff: about 22% career in minors
ifh: ?
babip: low in minors which makes sense given lack of speed, mediocre power, and high popup rate
s/c/z: good eye, not all that patient, slightly below average contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .722 vs .843 ops difference in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: CF Elijah Dukes (R): .277/.347/.473

proj: .265/.365/.465
bb: 14%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been low but seems to profile as about average according to most systems. My system actually puts him at about .316.
s/c/z: good eye but poor contact skill
r/l: more power against lhp but not much difference otherwisee
h/a: much better k/bb at home: 1.2 vs 2.0
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: C Jesus Flores (R): .311/.382/.522

proj: .245/.305/.410
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 17%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been above average but will probably fall due to high popup rate. My system puts him at .278.
s/c/z: hacker but pithchers still challenge him
r/l: 5.1 k/bb vs rhp, 3.5 k/bb vs lhp; .633/.802 ops split but mostly due to very high babip vs lhp that probably won't persist.
h/a: struggles more at home so far in career but probably just noise
p/o: very distinct pull hitter; only rarely goes the other way at all
other: far more successful against finesse pitchers thus far with lots of trouble against power pitchers

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Ross Detwiler (L): 2.45 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.89 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: about 50% in minors
pitches: 77% fb, 14% ch, 9% cb
r/l: not much of a split in minors, and since he's a fastball/changeup/curveball pitcher, that makes sense
h/a: not enough info

Detwiler: has not played any Phillies

SATURDAY STARTER: Shairon Martis (R): 4.86 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.73 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 60% fb, 20% ch, 10% sl, 9% cb
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Martis vs. Phillies:

Howard: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 4/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Utley: 2/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: John Lannan (L): 4.11 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.46 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 60% fb, 16% sl, 12% cb, 11% ch, 1% ct
r/l: 1.2 k/bb vs rhb, 2.3 vs lhb; .719/.840 ops
h/a: slightly better on road but not much info

Lannan vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 6/18, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 8/16, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/17, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 3/13, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Feliz: 7/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 2/8, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Ibanez: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Jordan Zimmerman (L): 6.07 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.21 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 48% in minors so probably about average in majors perhaps (?)
pitches: ?
r/l: better against righties in minors
h/a: ?

Zimmerman vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Craig Stammen (R): 5.56 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.49 FIP, 60% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: about 40% in minors
pitches: 75% fb, 13% ch, 12% cb
r/l: not much of a split in minors, which makes sense given he's a fastball/changeup/curveball pitcher
h/a: not enough info

Stammen: has not played any Phillies

DISABLED LIST: Scott Olsen (L): 7.24 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.60 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 63% fb, 20% ch, 17% sl
r/l: 1.6 k/bb vs rhb, 2.8 k/bb vs lhb; .827/.686 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Olsen vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/33, 2 3B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Utley: 4/27, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
Howard: 14/29, 3 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/22, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 10/19, 2 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 4/16, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K
Coste: 3/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 1/8, 1 BB, 4 K
Ibanez: 5/8, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/5, 2 BB (2 IBB), 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Joel Hanrahan (R): 5.64 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.15 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Hanrahan vs Phillies:

Werth: 0/8, 4 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 1/10, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 0/8, 1 BB, 7 K
Rollins: 2/9, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Coste: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

Joe Beimel (L): 5.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.66 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 85% fb (sinkers coded as fastballs), 7% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 0.9 vs 2.3 k/bb, platoon splits not even as deep as would be give strength of lhb faced vs rhb
h/a: 1.5 k/bb at home 1.1 k/bb on road, but ops split not different

Beimel vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 2/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 1/7, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Feliz: 5/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Julian Tavarez (R): 5.68 ERA, 6.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 4.32 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 53% fb, 25% sl, 15% ch, 8% sf
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhb, 1.0 vs lhb; .734/.827 ops
h/a: 1.75 k/bb at home, 1.3 on road

Tavarez vs Phillies:

Rollins: 10/27, 4 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 4/10, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 5 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Coste: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Kip Wells (R): 6.35 ERA, 6.0 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 4.31 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 70% sl, 12% sl, 10% cb, 8% ch
r/l: .755/.807
h/a: .756/.802

Wells vs Phillies:

Stairs: 3/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/19, 1 2B, 1 BB, 6 K
Utley: 4/15, 3 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 1/5, 1 3B, 4 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 2/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Ruiz: 0/4, 2 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ron Villone (L): 0.00 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 2.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.93 FIP

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 68% fb, 26% sl, 6% ch
r/l: .781 vs .701 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: .781 vs .731 ops; 1.5 vs 1.4 k/bb

Villone vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 6 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 2/7, 3 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 1/5, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Ibanez: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB

Jesus Colome (R): 11.25 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.66 FIP, 13% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 34%
pitches: 71% fb, 27% sl, 1% ch
r/l: 2.0 vs 0.95 k/bb, .698 vs .817 ops
h/a: .725 vs .777 ops; 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb

Colome vs Phillies:

Victorino: 3/9, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Werth: 1/8, 1 3B, 3 BB, 6 K
Rollins: 4/7, 2 HR, 3 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/5, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Coste: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Utley: 3/3, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jason Bergmann (R): 5.40 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.92 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.65 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 31%
pitches: 55% fb, 21% cb, 15% sl, 6% ch
r/l: .734/.870
h/a: .764/.840

Bergmann vs Phillies:

Victorino: 5/26, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Rollins: 5/26, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Utley: 4/23, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Howard: 4/17, 1 HR, 7 BB (2 IBB), 7 K
Ruiz: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K

DEMOTED TO AAA: Garrett Mock (R): 6.92 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.32 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 20% cb, 11% ch, 8% sl, 2% ct
r/l: .689/.704
h/a: .730/.643

Mock vs Phillies:

Victorino: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .223/.271/.332

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .280/.327/.440

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .289/.425/.550

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .263/.338/.542

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing balls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though. my system sees him at .310.
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .255/.346/.472

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .339/.402/.707

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .307/.373/.433

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .280/.386/.453

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

BENCH

C Chris Coste (R): .230/.319/.393

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .118/.179/.235

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .135/.238/.216

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .300/.488/.633

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

OF John Mayberry Jr. (R): .250/.250/.750

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.60 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.65 HR/9, 3.67 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Nationals:

Belliard: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Harris: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Kearns: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Zimmerman: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dunn: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Guzman: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 1 BB

SATURDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.68 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Nationals:

Zimmerman: 11/39, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
Kearns: 6/23, 2 2B, 5 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Belliard: 6/25, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
Willingham: 3/13, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K
Johnson: 3/13, 3 2B, 1 BB, 4 K
Dunn: 1/9, 1 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
Guzman: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Harris: 0/6, 1 BB, 4 K
Hernandez: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bard: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 7.42 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 2.5 HR/9, 6.90 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Nationals:

Guzman: 14/43, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Belliard: 8/30, 5 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 Sac
Zimmerman: 4/24, 1 2B, 4 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 2/23, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Johnson: 1/15, 4 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Bard: 6/16, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Harris: 4/15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Kearns: 5/14, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 5/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Dunn: 1/4, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Nieves: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 6.14 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.80 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Nationals:

Zimmerman: 7/14, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Dunn: 3/9, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Guzman: 3/12, 0 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 5/10, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Kearns: 2/8, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K
Belliard: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Nieves: 2/7, 0 BB, 0 K
Harris: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Brett Myers (R): 4.66 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.32 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs Nationals:

zimmerman: 13/35, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 5 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Johnson: 5/26, 3 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 9 K, 1 HBP
Kearns: 7/25, 2 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Guzman: 9/28, 0 BB, 4 K
Dunn: 3/21, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 8 K
Willingham: 7/19, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Belliard: 4/18, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Harris: 0/14, 5 BB, 5 K
Hernandez: 5/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Bard: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 8.85 ERA, 5.75 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.7 HR/9, 6.90 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Nationals:

Dunn: 4/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB (1 IBB), 9 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Kearns: 3/9, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Belliard: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Harris: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Willingham: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Zimmerman: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Bard: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Guzman: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.82 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.82 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Nationals:

Willingham: 6/17, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Zimmerman: 7/18, 3 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 5/16, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Johnson: 3/6, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Belliard: 2/6, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Guzman: 6/8, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Dunn: 3/5, 1 HR, 1 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Harris: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bard: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Nieves: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K

Scott Eyre (L): 3.48 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 6.94 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Nationals:

Dunn: 5/20, 3 HR, 2 BB, 10 K, 1 SF
Johnson: 2/14, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Guzman: 1/8, 2 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Harris: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Zimmerman: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 0/1 , 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.82 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Nationals:

Dunn: 1/9, 2 BB, 4 K
Harris: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Johnson: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Zimmerman: 1/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Guzman: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 4/4, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Bard: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Nieves: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.62 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.22 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Nationals:

Guzman: 6/22, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Zimmerman: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Belliard: 2/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 1/6, 1 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Harris: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Dunn: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bard: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 2.00 ERA, 3.0 B/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.27 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Nationals:

Zimmerman: 2/15, 0 BB, 2 K
Belliard: 3/10, 1 3B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Dunn: 4/6, 2 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Kearns: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/6, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Harris: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Guzman: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Johnson: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.57 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Nationals:

Belliard: 3/16, 0 BB, 5 K
Guzman: 3/13, 2 BB, 1 K
Harris: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Dunn: 1/2, 1 2B, 4 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Johnson: 1/2, 3 BB, 0 K
Willingham: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Kearns: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 1/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Bard: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hernandez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Nationals:

Belliard: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Harris: 0/8, 0 BB, 5 K
Johnson: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Cintron: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Guzman: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dunn: 2 BB
Flores: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Kearns: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Nieves: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Zimmerman: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Willingham: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Phillies vs Marlins: May 25-27

Matt Swartz — Mon, 25 May 2009 22:02:06 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Chooch wants Marlin! (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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It was a month ago that I wrote that the Marlins, then 11-4, were a fluke and due for a regression. They were in first place and the Phillies were a measly 6-8. The Phillies swept the Marlins and are now 24-18, in first place themselves, and the Marlins have barely won any games at all since then and sit in fourth place at 20-25. This article will not have quite the detail of that article, as I'm in the Baseball Prospectus Idol competition and need to start preparing for next week's submission (don't forget to vote!), but I'll link to that old article here. A number of the players have changed, but I think I have the current rosters right. I've also updated the season stats.

Monday will pit Jamie Moyer against Chris Volstad. Volstad has been solid this year, with an ERA of 3.64. He has had significant BABIP luck (.244) but also been unlucky with homeruns (18% HR/Flyball), so overall he probably should be in the low 4's. That will be the toughest game of the series given Moyer's recent struggles. On Tuesday, the Phillies send Joe Blanton to the mound against Andrew Miller. Miller has been wild this year walking over 5 per 9, without striking out many more than 6 per 9. He's been lucky on homeruns per flyball, and will regress...hopefully against us! On Wednesday, the Phils sent Brett Myers out against Hayden Penn. Hayden Penn has only started one game this year (a disastrous start against the Diamondbacks five days ago), but with Nolasco sent to AAA and Anibal Sanchez on the disabled list, Penn will get another shot.

MATCH-UPS:
Monday, 7:05-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Chris Volstad (R)
Tuesday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Andrew Miller (L)
Wednesday, 7:05-- Brett Myers (R) vs Hayden Penn (R)

See below the jump for detailed player statistics and splits, as well as updated batter/pitcher matchups.

MARLINS

LINE UP

1) 3B Emilio Bonifacio (S): .258/.296/.311

projection average (proj): .260/.315/.340
projected BB/PA (bb): 6.5%
projected K/AB (k): 21%
career gb% (gb): 56%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 5%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 14%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): He gets a lot of infield hits, so the infield has to play in, so his groundballs and line drives find their way through more. He also avoids infield popups. So he should be able to hit around .330 on balls in play.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): about average all around
righty/lefty (r/l): thus far he has 16 K's and 1 BB against LHP as RHB.
home/away (h/a): thus far very poor on the road: 5.0 k/bb instead of 2.0.
pull/opposite (p/o): spreads ball around very well from both sides
anything else (other): none

2) LF Jeremy Hermida (L): .271/.383/.387

proj: .270/.355/.445
bb: 11%
k: 25%
gb: 45%
iff: 9%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected pretty high but doesn't seem to profile as such at all
s/c/z: poor eye but average contact
r/l: .793 vs .741; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .729/.828: better on road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

3) SS Hanley Ramirez (R):

proj: .310/.385/.530
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 43%
iff: 11%
ifh: 10%
babip: excellent babip on groundballs with speed, excellent babip on line drives since he has power and hits deep liners
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact
r/l: .886/.975; 1.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .924/.890
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundballers and relatively weaker against power pitchers than others

4) 1B Jorge Cantu (R): .276/.335/.487

proj: .275/.325/.455
bb: 6.5%
k: 19%
gb: 39%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: hacks a lot, makes average contact
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: much better at home, especially in terms of power and babip
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) C John Baker (L): .284/.371/.509

proj: .265/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 23%
gb: 50%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected to be pretty high (.320ish) but he doesn't seem to profile as a high babip guy to me
s/c/z: swings rarely and makes good contact, okay eye
r/l: 1.3 vs 2.5 k/bb, thus far has made weak contact vs lhp
h/a: .908/.763
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

6) 2B Dan Uggla (R): .205/.328/.424

proj: .260/.340/.475
bb: 10%
k: 26%
gb: 37%
iff: 8%
ifh: 9%
babip: pretty good on groundballs, projected to be average
s/c/z: pretty good eye but poor contact
r/l: .854/.761
h/a: .830/.833 but slight improvement in k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

7) RF Cody Ross (R): .239/.292/.426

proj: .265/.330/.485
bb: 8%
k: 24%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot, but doesn't make good contact
r/l: .729/.941; 3.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: not real splits
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

8) Chris Coghlan (L): .191/.291/.255

proj: .260/.330/.380
bb: 8.5%
k: 15%
gb: 55%
iff: 30% (in first 10 flyballs)
ifh: 6%
babip: high groundball rate but high popout rate; projected around average
s/c/z: not a great eye, average contact
r/l: not much of a split in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems to be a slight pull hitter but tough to know
other: none

BENCH

C Ronny Paulino (R): .232/.348/.357

proj: .265/.325/.405
bb: 8%
k: 19%
gb: 47%
iff: 6%
ifh: 8%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: good eye and somewhat good contact
r/l: .643/.928 career. 2.9 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .736/.698
p/o: hits to opposite field slightly more
other: struggles against power pitchers

1B Ross Gload (L): .279/.375/.377

proj: .280/.325/.405
bb: 6%
k: 12%
gb: 56%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye and good contact but swings a lot, and he sees lots of strikes.
r/l: does as well against lefties in his experiences against him, but he doesn't bat against them rarely and the lack of splits is probably selection bias as he only gets to face weaker lefties
h/a: .775/.713 but similar k/bb numbers
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Wes Helms (R): .212/.276/.250

proj: .255/.320/.400
bb: 7%
k: 24%
gb: 40%
iff: 6%
ifh: 6%
babip: a little above average as he avoids infield flies
s/c/z: okay eye poor contact
r/l: 4.0 vs 2.1 k/bb; .712/.815 ops
h/a: .776/.717 ops
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around well
other: none

C Brett Hayes (R): 1 for 1 (single)

proj: .230/.280/.350
bb: 5%
k: 21%
gb: about 40% in minors
iff: low 20% range in minors
ifh: ?
babip: seems to hit the ball hard but make poor contact and pop out a lot; probably below average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: UTL Alfredo Amezaga (S): .217/.261/.261

proj: .260/.320/.355
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 49%
iff: 14%
ifh: 8%
babip: speedy but doesn't make really solid contact; average overall
s/c/z: average eye but above average contact
r/l: .692 vs .519; 1.8 vs 3.7 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split
p/o: definite pull hitter as righty; slight pull hitter as lefty
other: none

SENT TO AAA: OF Brett Carroll (R): .143/.217/.143

proj: .235/.290/.400
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 6%
ifh: 14%
babip: not much info to tell; projected below average
s/c/z: free swinger who makes very bad contact
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

SENT TO AAA: CF Cameron Maybin (R): .202/.280/.310

proj: .275/.345/.430
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 5%
ifh: 9%
babip: very speedy so probably above average but not as above average as the projections suggest
s/c/z: average eye, poor contact
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY OPPONENT: Chris Volstad (R): 3.64 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.45 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 4.64 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 53%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% cb, 9% ch
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but not much info

Volstad vs Phillies:

Rollins: 4/9, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Utley: 2/7, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Victorino: 1/10, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Ruiz: 2/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Andrew Miller (L): 4.94 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 4.12 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 75% fb, 16% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; .841 vs .699 ops though-- probably selection bias as managers avoided putting lefties against him
h/a: .792 vs .823

Miller vs Phillies:

Utley: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Rollins: 1/11, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/10, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Victorino: 5/11, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/3, 1 BB, 3 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Hayden Penn (R): 6.97 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.50 FIP, 52.5% GB

proj avg: 5.20 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 67% fb, 17% ch, 15% cb
r/l: 0.8 vs 0.9 k/bb; 1.135 vs .825 ops (151 vs 172 pa)
h/a: 1.1 vs 0.7 k/bb; 1.003 vs .948 ops (127 vs 196 pa)

Penn vs. Phillies:

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 HBP
Dobbs: 1 BB
Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Josh Johnson (R): 2.67 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.92 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 67% fb, 24% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.7 vs 1.7 k/bb; .666 vs .746 ops
h/a: 2.4 vs 1.8 k/bb; .734 vs .676 ops though

Johnson vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Howard: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Utley: 5/16, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 0 XBH
Victorino: 3/16, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 3/12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 6 K
Coste: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 2 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2

NOT FACING US: Sean West (L): 3.60 ERA, 7.2 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.55 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 6.00 ERA, 6.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40-50% in minors, 40% higher up
pitches: ?
r/l: seems to have pretty deep split in minors but tough to know
h/a: not enough info

West: has not faced any Phillies

BULLPEN

CL Matt Lindstrom (R): 6.50 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.09 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 77% fb, 19% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb; .621 vs .714 ops
h/a: .623 vs .704 ops; 3.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Lindstrom vs Phillies:

Victorino: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1 BB
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Leo Nunez (R): 3.63 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.25 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.89 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 61% fb, 20% ch, 19% sl
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.3 k/bb; .727 vs .888 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .731 vs .868 ops

Nunez vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB

Kiko Calero (R): 2.42 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.39 FIP, 25% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 66% fb, 29% sl, 5% ch
r/l: 3.4 vs 1.8 k/bb; .597 vs .791 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Calero vs Phillies:

Feliz: 3/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB (2 IBB), 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 SF
Rollins: 1 SF
Victorino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Dan Meyer (L): 2.79 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.72 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 26%
pitches: 64% fb, 17% sl, 19% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; .913 vs .985 ops (selection bias)
h/a: 1.0 vs 1.9 k/bb; .964 vs .908

Meyer vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/5, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Burke Badenhop (R): 5.75 ERA, 3.5 BB/9 ,8.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.74 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 71% fb, 15% sl, 14% ch
r/l: 4.8 k/bb vs rhb, 0.7 k/bb vs lhb; also had huge splits in minors
h/a: not enough info

Badenhop vs. Phillies:

Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Brian Sanches (R): 0.00 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.81 FIP, 37.5% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 49% fb, 22% sl, 18% sf, 6% ch, 5% cb
r/l: 1.8 vs 1.1 k/bb; .896 ops both ways
h/a: 1.1 vs 2.1 k/bb; 1.004 vs .745 ops

Sanches vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 1 BB

Christopher Leroux (R): no major league statistics

proj avg: 5.70 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 50% about in minors but just in low minors
pitches: ?
r/l: seems better against righties actually
h/a: not enough info

Leroux: has not faced any Phillies

DISABLED LIST: Renyel Pinto (L): 2.53 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.32 FIP, 30% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% ch, 8% sl
r/l: 1.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; .680 vs .744 ops (selection bias again)
h/a: .675 vs .734 ops; 1.3 vs 1.9 k/bb

Pinto vs Phillies:

Howard: 2/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
Utley: 5/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 2/9, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB

DISABLED LIST: Anibal Sanchez (R): 5.79 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 1.65 HR/9, 5.38 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 57% fb, 19% sl, 16% cb, 8% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .653 vs .780 ops; 2.2 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .668 vs .782; 1.9 vs 1.1 k/bb

Sanchez vs Phillies:

Utley: 5/13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 3/12, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Howard: 4/8, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Rollins: 4/10, 1 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1 BB

DEMOTED TO AAA: Ricky Nolasco (R): 9.07 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 7. K/9, 1.65 HR/9, 4.80 ERA, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 5% fb, 27% cb, 16% sl, 5% sf, 1% ch
r/l: 5.1 vs 2.2 k/bb! .682 vs .811 ops
h/a: 3.9 vs 2.8 k/bb but .682 vs .811 ops

Nolasco vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/19, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Utley: 6/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 3/13, 3 HR, 6 BB (4 IBB), 2 K
Victorino: 3/16, 2 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 3/9, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 2/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .233/.280/.344

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) 2B Chase Utley (L): .297/.434/.580

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

3) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .352/.412/.739

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.333/.512

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .262/.358/.490

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) CF Shane Victorino (S): .269/.313/.429

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .295/.367/.410

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .302/.421/.444

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH

C Chris Coste (R): .250/.319/.393

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .118/.179/.235

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .143/.250/.229

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.474/.536

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

OF John Mayberry (R): .250/.250/.750

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 7.62 ERA, 3.05 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 7.21 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Marlins:

Ramirez: 12/34, 1 3B, 4 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Uggla: 7/32, 2 2B, 1 BB, 12 K
Ross: 6/29, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Cantu: 6/21, 3 BB, 2 K
Hermida: 3/16, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Helms: 4/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Baker: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Paulino: 4/8, 0 BB, 1 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 7.11 ERA, 3.45 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.40 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Marlins:

Cantu: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Baker: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Uggla: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Gload: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Brett Myers (R): 4.34 ERA, 2.95 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.22 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does. My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments. If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up. However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take. For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming. A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs. Marlins:

Uggla: 12/33, 1 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 2 BB, 8 K
Ramirez: 10/28, 3 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 Sac
Hermida: 3/17, 3 BB, 7 K
Ross: 2/13, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Cantu: 5/10, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 2/6, 2 BB, 3 K
Helms: 0/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Baker: 2/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Gload: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Paulino: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS WEEKEND: Cole Hamels (L): 4.68 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 9/24, 6 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Uggla: 3/23, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Helms: 6/18, 2 2B, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Ross: 4/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 4/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Cantu: 3/13, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Baker: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

J.A. Happ (L): 2.60 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.65 HR/9, 3.65 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Marlins:

Cantu: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Baker: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Helms: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 9.15 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 2.75 HR/9, 6.96 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Marlins:

Helms: 3/10, 1 2B, 0 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Paulino: 2/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Cantu: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Ramirez: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Uggla: 1/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 2/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Baker: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.95 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.83 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Uggla: 4/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Cantu: 2/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Helms: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Ross: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Hermida: 0/4, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Baker: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gload: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 3.48 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 6.92 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Marlins:

Hermida: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Helms: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 1 BB

Jack Taschner (L): 3.66 ERA, 6.4 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.89 FIP, 35.5% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Marlins:

Cantu: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1 BB

Chad Durbin (R): 4.32 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.99 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Baker: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Uggla: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Gload: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.19 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.53 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Marlins:

Ramirez: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 0/8, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Hermida: 1/6, 2 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Helms: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Baker: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bonifacio: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Paulino: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.88 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Marlins:

Ramirez: 5/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/6, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Hermida: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Baker: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Bonifacio: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Paulino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Marlins:

Helms: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Uggla: 1/1, 1 2B, 2 BB, 0 K
Cantu: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Hermida: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Baker: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Bonifacio: 1 BB
Gload: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Paulino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ramirez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Picked Off: Spring Training Boxscores 3/4/2009

faketeams — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 16:00:11 -0000

SP Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins: He threw three shutouts innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates and struck out two. Buster Olney recently wrote Liriano has changed his pitching style to rely less on his slider. If this results in fewer strikeouts, will Liriano be a slight disappointment in fantasy circles?

OF Denard Span, Minnesota Twins: I admit I am slightly obsessed with figuring out if last season's Span is the real one or if it is the Span from his previous five professional seasons. His previous minor league high for drawing walks was 44 in 2005. He drew 40 in the next two seasons. Then drew 50 alone in half a major league season. Add in the 26 he took in AAA, and Span walked to first base 76 times!

If last season is the real Span, then he is going to be one of the better lead-off hitters in baseball. I'm thinking something like Brian Roberts. To that end, he walked twice and stole a base yesterday.

SP Kenshin Kawakami, Atlanta Braves: With three more shutout innings, Kawakami has thrown five shutout innings. Of a little concern, he walked three in the WBC-depleted Yankees line-up.

SP Jordan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals: Sticking with pitchers who threw three shutout innings against a WBC-depleted team, the Nationals' #1 prospect faced the Mets yesterday. Unlike Kawakami, he did not walk anyone and struck out three while allowing no hits. As a matter of fact, Zimmerman has five no-hit innings under his belt to start the Spring.

SS Chin-Ling Hu, Los Angeles Dodgers: He went 2-4 yesterday and was caught stealing. With Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson in the middle, Hu has little chance to get 200 ABs assuming healthy seasons from those two. However, he should be first in line should an injury to either occur. The broken leg of Ivan DeJesus made sure of that.

OF John Mayberry, Jr, Philadelphia Phillies: The WBC is going to strengthen the conventional wisdom that Spring Training stats are meaningless in another way. The ones accumulated in the exhibition games don't count. Lost in that will be a player like Mayberry who went 2-3 with a HR, his second of the Spring but one that will not show-up in the Spring Training stats on MLB.com.

Junior has had a good spring though 17 ABs with a 353/450/647 line. This 2-3 is missing. An 8-20 start with 15 total bases would make it on to fantasy players radar. Keep in mind Mayberry is likely to be the corner outfielder recalled if Ibanez/Werth are out any a while.