SB Nation - Esmailin Caridad

Cubs Trade Aaron Heilman To Diamondbacks

Al — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:45:23 -0000

No scenes like this will be seen in 2010. Aaron Heilman is headed to Arizona.

With all apologies due to BCB reader brian custer, a close friend of Aaron Heilman, he'll have to head to Phoenix to see his buddy pitch in 2010 -- the Cubs sent Heilman to the Diamondbacks today for two minor leaguers.

Personally, I'm happy about this -- Heilman did pitch a little better in September, which probably increased his trade value. This means it was a good thing that Jim Hendry didn't let him go for just the waiver price in August; at least a couple of minor leaguers will return. This also gives Esmailin Caridad and Justin Berg a better shot at making the 2010 bullpen; I like both those guys.

Details from the press release, after the jump.

The Chicago Cubs today acquired left-handed pitcher Scott Maine and first baseman Ryne White from the Arizona Diamondbacks for right-handed pitcher Aaron Heilman. White is a native of Chicago and is a 2005 graduate of St. Rita of Cascia High School.

Maine, 24, combined to go 4-5 with seven saves and a 2.90 ERA (20 ER/62.0 IP) in 48 relief appearances between Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno in 2009, reaching Triple-A in only his third professional season. The southpaw struck out 61 batters and issued 22 walks in 62.0 innings pitched between the stops, an average of nearly one strikeout per inning and 3.2 walks per nine innings. He allowed only two home runs in 62.0 innings pitched. Maine last month also made a pair of appearances for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League, allowing three runs in 1.2 innings.

Drafted by the Diamondbacks in the sixth round of the 2007 Draft, Maine is 8-7 with 13 saves and a 3.29 ERA (44 ER/120.1 IP) in 88 relief appearances covering three professional seasons. The six-foot-three, 195-pounder pitched for three seasons at the University of Miami before joining the Diamondbacks organization.

White, 23, batted .266 (111-for-418) with 18 doubles, six home runs, 52 RBI, 65 walks and a .371 on-base percentage in 116 games for Single-A Visalia last season. He was especially strong against right-handed pitching, batting .298 (78-for-262) with a .405 on-base percentage compared to a .212 (33-for-156) mark and a .313 on-base percentage vs. left-handed pitching. He is a career .275 hitter (194-for-705) with 13 home runs, 103 RBI and a .366 on-base percentage in 186 professional games the last two seasons.

After graduating from St. Rita of Cascia, White attended Purdue University and was a 2007 Big Ten Conference All-Star after batting .452 (90-for-199) with a .521 on-base percentage in 53 games for the Boilermakers. The five-foot-11, 205-pounder was selected by the Diamondbacks in the fourth round of the 2008 Draft.

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

View full size photo »

Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Home Teams Triumph On Day 1: MLB Division Series Day 2 Preview

Al — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:00:25 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

A-Rod has a good day. In the postseason. Who knew?

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In case you didn't stay up late last night -- and the game went a ridiculous three hours and fifty-four minutes with the teams combining for thirty men left on base -- the Dodgers beat the Cardinals 5-3, taking a 1-0 lead in their division series matchup. The home teams won all three games yesterday; Cliff Lee's complete game, the first in the postseason since Josh Beckett threw one against the Angels on October 3, 2007, led the Phillies to a 5-1 win over the Rockies, and a tired Twins team couldn't keep up with the Yankees, who rode a big day from Derek Jeter to a 7-2 victory. The Yankees and Twins get the day off -- as the Yankees chose the division series that will have a ridiculous three off days -- and the Angels and Red Sox begin their series tonight.

Bruce Miles, following up on his post about Cubs hitters on Monday, today has a cogent analysis of all the 2009 Cubs pitchers. He's got Esmailin Caridad listed as a contender for next year's bullpen; I also like Justin Berg, who has a good arm and who issued only one walk in his 12 major league innings -- and it was in his ML debut appearance August 13 vs. the Phillies. Oddly enough, the walk went to a player who doesn't walk all that much -- Jimmy Rollins.

Some People Have Too Much Time On Their Hands Dept.: a 12-year-old girl who caught Ryan Howard's 200th career home run in July and gave it to him for some autographed memorabilia sued the team and got it back. The mind boggles.

The Cleveland Indians are narrowing down their list of potential managers. Bob Brenly is mentioned, but only in this sentence: "Former managers such as Bobby Valentine, Buck Showalter or Bob Brenly would likely demand more lucrative contracts than inexperienced candidates."

Speaking of Brenly, here's an existential question: did Brenly's presence on the telecast with Dick Stockton make Stockton better? Or did Stockton make Brenly worse? (I think I know the answer.)

Complete game listings for today's games after the jump.

Rockies at Phillies, 1:30 pm CDT. TV: TBS. Announcers: Brian Anderson and Joe Simpson

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Rockies site Purple Row and Phillies site The Good Phight.

Cardinals at Dodgers, 5 pm CDT. TV: TBS. Announcers: Dick Stockton and Bob Brenly

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Cardinals site Viva el Birdos and Dodgers site True Blue LA.

Red Sox at Angels, 8:30 pm CDT. TV: TBS. Announcers: Don Orsillo and Buck Martinez

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Red Sox site Over The Monster and Angels site Halos Heaven.

Yesterday's thread didn't get too long, so once again I'm not going to post overflow threads today; if this one gets too long or slow by the third game, someone please post an overflow in the FanShot section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

All's Wells That Ends Wells: Cubs' Randy Wells Outstanding In Final 2009 Start

Al — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 20:53:53 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

Randy Wells finishes off an outstanding rookie season.

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Now here's something that can give us hope for 2010.

Randy Wells gave up a leadoff double to Stephen Drew and then shut the Diamondbacks down. He retired the next 14 in a row and allowed only two other hits, striking out ten, and the Cubs shut out the Diamondbacks 5-0. For the Cubs it was their eighth team shutout of the year (and third in their last eight games), and their first win over Arizona since April.

Wells set a season (and career) high with the 10 K's, and the seven innings pitched qualify him for the ERA leaders list -- at 3.05, he will rank 10th in the league (unless Josh Johnson of the Marlins, who will go in the season's final game tomorrow vs. the Phillies with a 3.08 ERA, passes him). He also walked only one this afternoon, completing 2009 with 46 walks in his 165.1 innings pitched -- that ranks 12th in the NL in fewest walks for anyone who has 162 or more innings this season. Randy also registered his 12th win of the season; in all of Cubs history only seven pitchers won more games in their rookie season. The 3.05 ERA also ranks sixth among all Cubs rookie pitchers who qualified for the league ERA title. (Note: Wells doesn't appear on those lists because before today's game he didn't have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Now he does.)

Randy is never going to overpower anyone, although today he had the Diamondbacks flailing away at his pitches, which he mixed up well. In his 27 starts he went fewer than five innings only three times, and today was his ninth outing of seven innings or more. Earlier this year I compared him to former Cub righthander Kevin Tapani. He resembles Tapani in several ways -- stature, pitching motion, the age at which he first established himself in the major leagues. And Tapani was a good #3 or #4 starter for 13 years, and was a key contributor to three playoff teams.

If the Cubs get that out of Randy Wells before he leaves the game, we will all be very happy.

While Wells and Esmailin Caridad (a 1-2-3 eighth) and Carlos Marmol (a 1-2-3 ninth) were keeping the Diamondbacks off the bases, the Cubs were drawing walks and hitting the hapless Daniel Cabrera all over the yard. The biggest blows were a two-run triple from Reed Johnson -- this, a guy who suffered a serious foot injury two months ago -- and two hits and two RBI from Geovany Soto. With his two hits and two walks Geo got his OPS above .700 (to .710). It's a big dropoff from his .868 Rookie of the Year OPS from last year, but at least he appears to be improving in September after an awful August. Geo needs to dedicate himself to losing weight and getting in shape and reporting to Mesa in February ready to recover his production level of 2008.

I was glad that Lou gave Tyler Colvin a start in front of the home crowd; he had an RBI single, and while he's probably not in the mix for a job at Wrigley in 2010, he should be ready to produce in Triple-A next year and be ready to challenge for the major league roster in 2011.

It was also nice to see Marmol throw an efficient inning, looking like the Marmol of old, even though it wasn't a save situation. This should also give him good confidence going into next year. The three pitchers, throwing strikes (87 out of 130 total Cub pitches), allowed the game to end in two hours and eleven minutes. That was the fastest nine-inning game at Wrigley Field since Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster (then the closer) dispatched the Astros in 2:05 on June 11, 2007. Just in time, too -- about five minutes after the last out, a light rain began to fall.

Speaking of rain, here's a final word I heard today about Thursday's rainout and why MLB wanted so badly to have all games played this season. Up to Thursday, no MLB games had been cancelled this year and it seemed possible that every team would play the full 162 games. Instead, with the Cubs having one fewer game than everyone except the Pirates, it's possible that the Cubs could rank ahead of the Rays and/or Mariners, whose records as of today are similar to the Cubs. MLB simply wanted to avoid that "half-game scenario", but Thursday's weather prevented that. That's the reason they waited so long.

And tomorrow, we wrap things up on the Cubs for 2009, we hope, with a win to at least send us off with a good last memory.

Ten Lessons Jim Hendry Needs To Learn From The 2009 Season

Al — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Example of a player Jim Hendry should not sign to an overpriced, multiyear contract.

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I suppose this post could have waited till next week, but once again we are faced with more than 48 hours between games -- for the last time in 2009 -- and so I thought I'd start some discussion this morning with these things that I think were done poorly by Cubs GM Jim Hendry since the end of the 2008 season.

Hendry got a three-year contract extension (through the 2012 season) after last year's successful regular season, with the hope that 2009 would be even better. It didn't work out that way; Hendry had about as bad an offseason last year as any GM in recent memory, but with new ownership poised to take over, it isn't the right time to blow everything up and start over. Hendry will be given at least one more year to get things back on the track we thought the Cubs were on during their two-year run as NL Central champions in 2007 and 2008.

Some of the problems with the 2009 Cubs were not Hendry's fault and many of them were beyond his control. It's not Hendry's fault that Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder four weeks into the season and missed a total of 75 games (through yesterday). A-Ram produced above his usual level (.906 OPS, compared to his career level of .847) and I think we all agree that the Cubs missed his production in the two months he was out from mid-May to mid-July, not to mention that he wasn't at full strength on his return. To have produced the way he did after the All-Star break -- without complaining -- is a credit to Ramirez's work ethic and ability. It's not Hendry's fault that Alfonso Soriano played most of the year injured, though he perhaps could have insisted harder that Soriano have arthroscopic surgery in June, and maybe he'd have been ready in September. It's not Hendry's fault that all the Opening Day rotation starters spent time on the disabled list, forcing the Cubs to have 21 starts made by guys (Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija) whose performance can best be called "uneven". (The Cubs were 9-12 in those 21 games.)

Credit where credit is due: give Jim credit for recognizing that Randy Wells could help the team as a starter, though I don't think anyone could have guessed he'd be as good as he has been. Credit for giving Koyie Hill the backup catcher job; he's been very good in that role. And credit for getting John Grabow and Gorzelanny for, essentially, nothing; Grabow will likely be retained as a key part of the 2010 bullpen and Gorzelanny, though his performance has been up and down, does have talent and will be in the mix for the 2010 rotation.

With that in mind, below the fold you'll find ten ideas Hendry must internalize and go by as he builds a roster for 2010. (Not necessarily in priority order.)

1. Stop fixing "problems" that do not exist. I think this is one we can all agree on; the troubles with the 2009 Cubs began with the decision made at the organizational meetings last fall that "we're not lefthanded enough", a mantra particularly of Lou Piniella's, due to the Dodgers' RHP-centric pitching staff in the 2008 NLDS. The Cubs didn't lose that series because of a lack of LH batters, but since Lou (and the rest of the staff) thought that was the reason, they went out of their way to identify a "lefthanded, middle-of-the-order bat" that they could insert behind Derrek Lee and ahead of Ramirez. We are all familiar with the expensive disaster that produced so I won't rehash it here. I caution Hendry about this because they are about to do the same thing -- fix a nonexistent problem. "We need a speedy leadoff man", goes the managerial mantra. Well, no, Lou, you don't. A leadoff man's primary job is to get on base. You already have someone who can lead off and do that -- Kosuke Fukudome, who ranks 8th in the NL in walks, despite having almost 100 fewer plate appearances than the leader (Albert Pujols). The Cubs are 22-13 with Fukudome leading off this year (that's a 101-win pace for a full season). The last time Hendry went after this type of player, he traded three useful minor leaguers for Juan Pierre. Jim -- do not get sucked into this trap again.

2. Stop bidding against yourself for players. The first argument against this, you might think, is "Jason Marquis", but Marquis did what he was asked to do -- if the Cubs had kept him this year and he had produced the way he did in Colorado, the Cubs would have gotten fine 4th or 5th starter value for the $7 million a year average per year over the life of Marquis' contract. True, Hendry could have likely had Marquis for less, since no one else had expressed interest at the time. And you can't make the argument "Alfonso Soriano" about this, either, because Soriano had been offered six-plus years by the Phillies and seven by the Angels; the Cubs were determined at the time to make a statement in the free agent market. Soriano was the top free agent after 2006, and yes, the Cubs overpaid to get him. He may still be healthy and productive enough to be worth the deal, at least for the next 2-3 years. (Heaven help the Cubs in years 7 and 8, though.) No, what I'm talking about is paying $30 million for three years' worth of the iffy Milton Bradley when absolutely no other team was even after Bradley, much less offering three years. Or giving a two-year contract to Aaron Miles for any amount of money, when we now know there was at least one option (Andres Blanco) right in the Cubs' own farm system who could have done a better job for the league minimum. Advice to Jim: when you're thinking about doing this, don't. Just don't.

3. Stop giving out contracts that are longer than they need to be. Related to the last point, there was no need to give Marquis a three-year deal; two plus a mutual option would have likely done it, and then if the Cubs really did want to deal him last year, they could have arranged for the other team to pick up the option (if that team wanted him badly enough) or simply decline the option and let him go to free agency. This is particularly true in the case of Marquis; the return for him (Luis Vizcaino) was worthless, because the Cubs wound up dumping him and eating the contract. The same thing applies to the Miles and Bradley deals.

4. Stop trading for guys you think are good because you liked them five years ago, or are fond of their college coach. You don't have to guess who I'm talking about here; his name is Aaron Heilman. (And several years ago, his name was Michael Barrett.) It's great for a GM to be loyal to his players, and Hendry is someone a lot of MLB players want to play for, for this very reason. But any Mets fan could have told Hendry that Heilman had lost whatever command he had last year -- you should have heard the booing for Heilman when he came in at Citi Field, louder than I think I've ever heard for any returning former player -- and though Heilman has been better the last six weeks, he still was not worth losing Felix Pie (Pie, though he went to Baltimore, essentially was part of this deal because Garrett Olson, who was acquired for Pie, was part of the deal to the Mariners for Heilman). And really, Jim, isn't it time to stop the Notre Dame-Wrigley Express? As far as I can tell, there are four active major leaguers who went to ND: Heilman, Samardzija, Craig Counsell and Brad Lidge. All of those guys have issues. Enough already.

5. Stop handing out one-year renewal deals to players like candy. Chad Gaudin didn't throw very well and had a noted off-field incident in 2008. He didn't figure to play a major role in the 2009 rotation or bullpen, yet the Cubs signed him to a $2 million deal in December to avoid arbitration. Then he stunk it up in spring training, forcing the Cubs to simply release him and eat the contract; the Padres and Yankees later got replacement-level production for the league minimum. The Cubs could have gotten this sort of production out of Justin Berg or Esmailin Caridad, as it turned out. Gaudin should have been non-tendered in December.

6. Don't waste half a year's roster spot on a Rule 5 pick that your manager isn't going to use. Maybe David Patton would have pitched better if Lou Piniella had actually used him more than once every five games. We'll never know, obviously, but Lou essentially wasted a roster spot by relegating Patton to pitching in blowouts or in long extra-inning games. The Cubs could have used an extra bench player -- since Aaron Miles was useless -- because Lou was working with what was for all practical purposes an 11-man pitching staff. Lou and Jim deserve equal blame for this one -- and I hate to say it, but BCB poster BLou was right about this one. At this point, maybe it's best for the Cubs to stay out of the Rule 5 draft for a while.

7. Do more careful evaluations of your prospects and young players to maximize their value, whether it be in the major league lineup or in trades. It's clear now that the entire organization was split on Felix Pie's progress. Two years ago, his trade value would have been a lot higher than "Garrett Olson", and of course, now it's probably far higher than that again. Hendry sold on Pie at the lowest possible point, and he and Lou together dragged down a former top prospect's trade value (they did the same with Rich Hill, who could have been dealt after the 2007 season for a pretty good return, although few would have suggested it after Hill put together such a good season). This is another reason why it's silly to have played Bobby Scales in left field for even one game. Scales is a great story and maybe he's a 25th guy on someone's roster next year -- but his trade value is close to zero. Jake Fox, on the other hand, might either be a useful spare part for the 2010 Cubs or might have some trade value, but scouts aren't going to see it if he sits on the bench, Lou. This is where a GM has to have some input with his manager, not simply let the manager dictate the roster. In general, GM's shouldn't be making out lineups -- but Hendry, in this case, could have let Lou know that Fox should have been playing (and Fox should have also been playing 3B from the day after A-Ram went down, too).

8. Don't automatically think that you have to sign expensive free agents to get better. Last offseason, rather than sign Milton Bradley, the Cubs could have approached the White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Dye could have been available by trade; at the time it appeared the White Sox were trying to dump contracts. In fact, I wrote about this possibility last November. Dye didn't have a great year, but he was at least as good as Bradley without the baggage, and with Dye having a $12 million mutual option that will almost certainly be declined by the White Sox, he might be available for not too much money and years (see points 2 and 3). There may be other players available like this -- and, in fact, Hendry almost has to use this route to be able to move Bradley's contract. Magglio Ordonez is almost certain to be on the block, and though he had a terrible season, it's possible he could rebound and he's a lifetime .308/.389/.513 hitter in Wrigley Field (relatively small sample size of 90 PA). NOTE! Do not assume that because I mentioned Ordonez, he is the ONLY player I'd go after for such a deal. He's only one example. Another such player is Luke Scott, who would have looked pretty good in a Cubs uniform in 2009, and who is likely headed for a hefty raise in arbitration. Maybe the Cubs can do that if they can trade Bradley elsewhere. The point of all this to Jim Hendry is: get creative, the way you did when you pulled off the Nomar Garciaparra deal in 2004.

9. Get "good clubhouse guys". I mean, this should be a no-brainer. Any Cubs fan who's been around even for ten years knows that the 2003 Cubs, managed by a player's manager, Dusty Baker, succeeded in part because they had strong clubhouse leaders, Eric Karros and Damian Miller. Miller and Karros were sent packing before 2004, and the 2004 Cubs, despite having more talent and ability than the 2003 version, collapsed in the final week. The acrimony there was visible in public, with players calling the press box to bitch, along with some high-profile public trouble between the team and its broadcasters. I'm not saying those were the only reasons for the success or failure of those two teams, but they clearly did have some impact, particularly with a players' manager like Baker who pretty much lets the clubhouse run itself. If there are no strong player-leaders, such a clubhouse is an "inmates running the asylum" situation and the results are predictable. Similarly, the Cubs lost strong player-leaders Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood after 2008 and added one player who reportedly was not a good clubhouse presence. NOTE! I am NOT saying that the Cubs must go out and reacquire DeRosa and Wood. However, I am saying that I believe all successful teams have players like this in their clubhouse. Hendry needs to identify some such players who can both do this and be productive in the lineup, and acquire a couple of them. Without trying to ignite the stats debate again, I believe having guys like this does matter. (Of course, they should also be good players -- that goes without saying.)

10. Think outside the box. Jim Hendry did this when he managed to dump an unproductive Todd Hundley on the Dodgers and get back two useful players in Mark Grudzielanek and Karros, without whom the Cubs might not have won the division in 2003. He did it again in 2004 when he engineered the four-team trade that got Nomar to the North Side. He needs to be creative in his thinking again this year. Don't fall prey to the "this is what's wrong with us and we are going to go fix that no matter what it costs" thinking that helped ruin the 2009 Cubs. Be ahead of the curve; that's what helped the Cardinals do so well this year. Also, this could apply to the idea that Hendry might be able to find solutions just by looking in his own system for next year (say, Andres Blanco, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad) rather than scouring the waiver wire for someone else's discards (as he did this year with the Aaron's).

There may be more lessons than just these ten, but going by these simple precepts might help Jim Hendry build a 2010 Cubs team that will once again be the favorite to win the NL Central -- and this time, actually do it.

Milton Bradley Suspended; Cubs Win In Extra Innings

Al — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 13:04:59 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Jake Fox's HR wins Sunday's game. Why hasn't this guy played this month?

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Milton Bradley's suspension for the rest of the season is obviously the topic everyone's talking about this morning. I'll have more to say below the fold, but first, let's at least enjoy the Cubs' 6-3 win over the Cardinals in 11 innings. If nothing else, it at least gave the Cubs the satisfaction of winning the final game of the season series between the two teams and delaying the Cardinals' clinching celebration for a couple more days.

It was the type of game you'd have liked to see far more of all season. Carlos Zambrano stayed within himself and threw six strong innings -- the ESPN crew said they thought Z should have been left in for one more inning, but after 102 pitches, that was probably enough. John Grabow threw well in relief, and Kevin Gregg got Albert Pujols to end the seventh.

Unfortunately, Gregg wasn't as good in the eighth, and the Cardinals tied the game. In the last of the ninth, the Cubs appeared to have lost when a double-play relay was thrown wide by Ryan Theriot with the bases loaded; the apparent winning run crossed the plate. However, the umpires conferred and correctly ruled that Matt Holliday had slid out of the baseline -- even going so far as to show Tony LaRussa the "skid mark". The run was nullified and the game continued.

Sean Marshall, Aaron Heilman and Esmailin Caridad held the Cardinals down until Jake Fox slammed a two-run homer off Mitchell Boggs; Carlos Marmol dispatched St. Louis easily in the last of the 11th and the Cubs had their 76th win of the season.

The Milton Bradley signing was doomed to fail from the moment it was made. First, Bradley was supposedly signed due to Lou's "we're not lefthanded enough" mantra. The switch-hitting Bradley has the following career numbers:

as right-handed hitter: .305/.385/.496 (.881 OPS)
as left-handed hitter: .266/.365/.431 (.796 OPS)

So right from the beginning, the Cubs were getting someone who hit significantly worse, as a switch-hitter, from the side that they supposedly needed the most production. His 2009 splits were even more extreme:

as right-handed hitter: .324/.375/.431 (.806 OPS)
as left-handed hitter: .234/.379/.385 (.734 OPS)

Note: both of the above stat boxes include an 0-for-3 that Bradley registered while batting right-handed vs. a RHP this year.

From that standpoint, the Cubs would have been far better off in 2009 with Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, or yes, Adam Dunn in right field. Had they signed Abreu, it would have cost them far less money (Abreu's making only $5 million this year), which might have allowed a mid-season acquisition along the lines of a Holliday -- who could have filled in while Alfonso Soriano had the knee surgery that he should probably have had in May, or a Mark DeRosa, who could have filled in while Aramis Ramirez was out. Jim Hendry bid against himself for Bradley, and now finds himself with more than $20 million that he has to remove from the payroll. There is no doubt in my mind that Bradley won't be back -- even if Tom Ricketts has to give the go-ahead to eat Bradley's contract.

A big thank-you to Bruce Miles, who broke this story on Saturday unintentionally; he was simply trying to ask Bradley some questions about his knee injury and place in the lineup, questions that were mild and that any ballplayer should be able to quickly give rote answers to. Instead, Bradley threw the entire Cubs organization, players, media and fans under the bus, and Bruce's quote of Ryan Dempster, I think, is telling:

"To say that everybody's out to get you and the reporters are looking for you and always looking to stick a microphone in your face, well, if you notice that they're always for you, I think maybe you're always looking for them," Dempster said. "I've been here six years now and haven't had a problem with anybody here. D-Lee's been here, Z, a lot of guys for a long time. Yeah, you have some tough times, but the city's great. The fans are great. You've got to realize sometimes the consequences of your own actions."

Dempster's a smart guy and he's got it exactly right. There are several other player quotes in Carrie Muskat's cubs.com article that I believe are illuminating and further, put the lie to the often-posted-here statement that "everyone says Milton is a great teammate".

Reed Johnson:

"That's tough for a guy like me to understand," Johnson said. "I came from Toronto and fell in love with the city [of Chicago] and fell in love with the organization. It's hard for me to believe you can come to this city and come to this organization and not enjoy your time here.

"I've heard guys like Eric Karros and Jason Kendall say if you're playing Major League Baseball over a long career, you have to play at least one year for the Chicago Cubs. It's a good thing, not a bad thing. I think all of us are really surprised that a player could come here and not have the time of his life."

Ryan Theriot:

Ryan Theriot's locker was next to Bradley's at Wrigley Field, and the shortstop tried to reach out to him.

"There were good days and bad days," Theriot said.

Derrek Lee:

The Cubs first baseman called Bradley after he and manager Lou Piniella got into a shouting match at U.S. Cellular Field during an Interleague game.

"I think this is a different situation," Lee said. "I would let him reach out to me on this one. He got suspended for the season. There's not much I can do to help him on that one. If he needed to talk, I'd talk."

Lee's locker is on the other side of Bradley's. What was his take on him?

"He's a quiet guy," Lee said. "I think he likes his privacy. ... I think a lot of frustration built up in him and he didn't let it out the right way."

Aramis Ramirez:

"I don't know," Ramirez said when asked if Bradley could come back. "I don't think so."

Aramis Ramirez, a guy who doesn't say much and goes out and does his job, especially in a year where he's suffered a serious injury, saying he doesn't think Bradley could come back -- that's a damning indictment. The most descriptive line I think I heard from someone who's met Bradley is that he's a "strange dude". He also broke commitments; George Castle of true/slant.com writes:

No doubt Bradley talked a good game in persuading the Cubs to sign him last winter. He briefly seduced me during his introductory press conference in January the situation was different and Chicago would finally provide a baseball home for him. I even wrote he could rack up MVP numbers with that kind of attitude. Unfortunately, it was wishful thinking for Bradley, the Cubs and me. The real Bradley was soon exposed. See a previous blog about my experience with the outfielder, who stiffed me three times in four days after he had committed to doing an interview for my syndicated baseball radio show "Diamond Gems."

Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times makes it clear that the problems originated with Bradley:

Around the middle of the season, Bradley told a reporter he felt "isolated" in the clubhouse.

"I think for the most part that was his choice,"said Reed Johnson, whom Bradley once gave credit for getting in his face and helping straighten him out -- however temporary.

Said Piniella: "I just know that last year, I don't know how many times I heard from the media that we had the best clubhouse in the league. And things don't change that rapidly in a year."

Paul Sullivan of the Tribune quotes Hendry:

"The last few days became too much for me to tolerate," Hendry said. "I'm certainly not going to let our great fans become an excuse. I'm not going to tolerate not being able to answer questions from the media respectfully. Whether you feel like talking or not, it's part of all of our jobs.

"There's a right way to do it and a wrong way. I'm not going to allow disrespect to other people in that locker room and uniformed personnel, and I'm certainly not going to let a player, as was mentioned in the article today, (talk about) negativity of the organization."

Jim -- I think you did this to yourself. You didn't do your due diligence in trying to find out exactly what makes Milton Bradley tick. His blowups were well-documented, and there were, according to Sullivan's article, more troubles than we knew, even recently:

Bradley had been more erratic than usual this weekend, telling teammates he was having marital difficulties and sparring with hitting coach Von Joshua. Hendry spent the last three days contemplating the suspension.

The final beat-writer quote goes again to Bruce Miles, whose article contains many of the above quotes, and also this from Lou:

"I read some of his comments," Piniella said. "I can tell you this, that I've been here three years and I feel blessed that I've been able to spend three wonderful years here in Chicago. What a great city. Wrigley Field, what a fun place to play. And our fans are second to none."

Thank you, Lou. We may disagree with Lou's decisions and his apparent lack of interest this year, but he's got that right. Maybe the "disenchantment" that Bruce Miles says Lou had with Bradley all year had something to do with what appeared to be Lou sleepwalking through the 2009 season.

The final words, since this is my site, go to me. As noted above, this move was doomed to fail from January 6, the day it happened, for both on- and off-field reasons. It's almost certain that Milton Bradley has played his last game in a Cubs uniform, and for that I am glad. He's been a distraction and did not produce on the field. Why would you want a guy like that on your team? The situation is somewhat comparable, though more extreme, to the situation seven years ago involving Todd Hundley, also signed as a big-name free agent and who had the same production and complaining problems, although he simply complained TO the media, not ABOUT them, and didn't affect his teammates as negatively as Bradley has.

Jim Hendry was able to turn Hundley into two productive players who helped the Cubs win the NL Central in 2003. Perhaps he can perform the same thing with Bradley; it's been suggested by some that the Cubs might be able to send him to Toronto for Vernon Wells. Though Wells' contract is almost as onerous as Alfonso Soriano's, I'd do it. There's at least a chance that Wells will return to previous levels of production, and the alternative is probably simply to send Bradley home and pay him for doing nothing.

I never rooted against Milton Bradley when he was wearing a Cubs uniform. Had he produced, he would have helped the Cubs win games and that would have been a good thing. But starting from the injury in Milwaukee and the brief suspension that resulted from his tirade in his first Wrigley Field at-bat, Bradley was never a good fit for the Cubs, either emotionally or in the lineup. I'll be very happy when this chapter in Cubs history is just that -- history.

Cubs Beat Brewers 13-7 In Walkathon

Al — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:52:15 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Fortunately, Aramis wasn't hurt by this HBP, which drove in a run.

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It's been more than six years since the Cubs have walked as many times -- 12 -- as they did last night. That game, a 15-2 win over the Mets on March 31, 2003 in New York, featured a career day (two HR, seven RBI) from a man who appeared as a pinch-hitter for the Brewers on Tuesday night -- Corey Patterson.

Tuesday night's game was that kind of game. The Cubs beat the Brewers 13-7, scoring almost as many runs as the Bears had points (15) on Sunday, and it got closer when a former football player, Jeff Samardzija, given up two consolation runs to Milwaukee in the ninth inning.

More on walks: only six games since 1954 have featured more walks by a Cubs team, and only one of those -- a 20-9 win over the Giants on August 13, 1959 -- had even one HBP. Last night's game featured three. Two of them came in the Cubs' five-run sixth inning, and the second of those, to Aramis Ramirez, "drove" in a run. (Milton Bradley also got a RBI on a HBP, in the seventh.) The Cubs scored eight runs in their last three innings on only four hits and the 13-run outburst, the second-biggest of 2009, was accomplished with only one home run. The roundtripper came off the bat of Geovany Soto, who, perhaps better late than never, is beginning to hit like the Rookie of the Year we saw in 2008. Geo has started only seven games in September, but is hitting .360/.452/.800 in those games, with two homers and 12 RBI.

Even more on walks: the Cubs had two different players, Ryan Theriot and Derrek Lee, who walked four times. That's nowhere near a record, but Theriot, after striking out and singling in his first two times up, walked four consecutive times (off four different pitchers), and Lee was two-for-two (a single and a double) in his non-base-on-balls plate appearances. The Cubs overall sent 50 batters to the plate, but had only 34 official at-bats (the other 16: the 12 walks, the three HBP, and a deep fly ball to CF by Carlos Zambrano that went for a sacrifice fly).

Speaking of Z, Paul Sullivan's game story criticizes him for alleged antics during the Brewers' five-run fifth inning, after which Carlos was pulled (having thrown 103 pitches):

But Zambrano's histrionics overshadowed everything. During the five-run fifth, he showed up outfielder Bobby Scales by making faces and waving his hands when Scales didn't throw home on Ryan Braun's run-scoring single. Pitching coach Larry Rothschild came out to calm down Zambrano, but the pitcher made no eye contact during the visit.

I dunno. I didn't see it that way, although I also wondered why Scales made no attempt to throw to the plate on Braun's hit. It was a horrendous inning -- all the Brewers' action came after two were out and no one on base, and Z threw 39 pitches -- but the last two runs weren't really Z's fault. Ryan Theriot fumbled what should have been an inning-ending ground ball by Casey McGehee (after Z had intentionally walked Prince Fielder to load the bases), and Mike Cameron drove in the final pair of runs after that. Theriot's blunder was originally ruled an error, but later changed to a hit by the official scorer. It should have remained an error; a major league shortstop should make that play.

I doth, as the saying goes, protest too much. Z was dominant for the first four innings, allowing only a triple in the RF gap to Brewers rookie Alcides Escobar and hitting 95+ on the Wrigley Field boards showing pitch speed several times. It could have, and probably should have, been an easy six-inning quality start and win for Z. Instead, the win went to Aaron Heilman, who had an efficient scoreless sixth inning. Since August 12, in his last nine appearances Heilman has thrown 12 innings with nine strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA and more importantly, has issued only one walk during those nine outings. In fact, before Samardzija came in during garbage time, the bullpen did an excellent job of keeping the Brewers down while the Cubs were piling up walks and runs -- three hitless innings with only one walk from Heilman, Kevin Gregg and Esmailin Caridad.

An announced crowd of 38,986 included maybe 8,000 no-shows, as the ballpark filled up late despite a windier and slightly cooler night than Monday. Those who did come were treated to an enjoyable, if rather lengthy (three hours, 20 minutes) victory, the Cubs' 10th in 14 games in September. Do not give up, my friends. The Rockies lost again last night and the Cubs crept to within 5.5 games of the wild-card lead. It's still a longshot -- but possible. Keep the faith and go Cubs.

Winning Streak At Four: Cubs Defeat Reds 6-4 Despite Harden's Struggles

Al — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 21:53:04 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Throw strikes, please. And the red caps? Um, nope.

View full size photo »

Summer arrived at Wrigley Field today, a couple of months late. Didn't anyone tell the weather folks that this is the weather we should have had in July?

Rich Harden apparently wanted to make summer last forever, as he threw an alarming 103 pitches in four innings before Lou had seen enough and sent Aaron Miles up to bat for him in the last of the fourth. Miles actually saw four pitches before grounding to second. (Harden probably could have done that, and then been lifted anyway.) It got so bad with Harden's lack of control that Lou actually had David Patton warming up in the first inning, despite the fact that Harden hadn't allowed a hit. Instead, Harden had walked the bases loaded and thrown 39 pitches to get the first three outs.

Thankfully, the Cubs had enough offense off Justin Lehr, who had shut them out in Cincinnati in August. Aramis Ramirez drove in three runs -- he now has 54 RBI, and with two more will move into second place on the 2009 Cub team list behind Derrek Lee. Think about that. 56 RBI is 2nd on the team, and Ramirez has about half the at-bats of the people he's passing. That's how difficult offense has been to come by at times for this team. Geovany Soto homered -- his first since August 10 -- and the Cubs hung on for a 6-4 win. Their playoff hopes with 23 games remaining and an 8.5 game deficit may be very slim (0.7% by Baseball Prospectus' estimate), but all you can do is go out there every day and win your game and see what happens.

Lou apparently decided to use the middle innings, with the Cubs leading 4-1 after Soto's homer, to audition pitchers for next year's bullpen. Perhaps we can cross Jeff Stevens off the list. Stevens gave up two singles and a three-run homer to Jonny Gomes, tying the game. For that performance, Stevens got his first major league win, because he was the pitcher of record when Kosuke Fukudome walked for the second time in the game, went to second on a wild pitch, and scored on Ramirez's single. This is proof positive that wins for relief pitchers are virtually meaningless. The official scorer does have the discretion to award the victory to someone other than the pitcher of record if he pitches "briefly and ineffectively", as the official rules state. Today was a perfect example of a game where that could have been the case. Aaron Heilman -- who's actually thrown better lately -- came in after Stevens and threw two shutdown innings, striking out the side in the seventh and throwing 22 strikes in his 34 pitches. Heilman deserved the win.

Also auditioning for next year was Esmailin Caridad, who has a good arm and also threw a good scoreless inning. He needs to develop a breaking pitch; perhaps the Cubs will send him to winter ball so he can work on one. Caridad, who will be 26 next month, could be an important part of the 2010 bullpen.

Carlos Marmol will definitely be the anchor of that pen -- it appears he has finally settled down now that he's been officially named closer. Despite a walk and single (which wouldn't have been a single if Andres Blanco had been inserted for defense in the 9th, as Koyie Hill was), Marmol stayed within himself and finished off the Reds for his 12th save.

As I said -- the chances are slim. But the Cubs are setting themselves up to have one of the better Septembers in recent memory; they're 7-3 and riding a four-game winning streak. Let's keep riding it. Keep the faith and go Cubs.

Keep The Winning Streak Going: Cubs vs. Reds Preview, Friday 9/11, 1:20 CT

Al — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 14:30:26 -0000

by Gene J. Puskar - AP

May there be many scenes like this today -- Cubs runners scoring.

View full size photo »

Since the Cubs last faced the Reds in Cincinnati on August 5, the Reds are 17-16. That sounds decent, but they have been an extremely streaky team. Starting on August 14, the Reds: lost five straight, then won one, lost two, won five, lost two, won seven, and lost four, their current streak (a four-game sweep at the hands of the Rockies). The seven-game winning streak -- two games longer than the Cubs' longest of the year -- includes a four-game sweep of the Pirates.

So, it should be time for the Cubs to extend that four-game Cincinnati losing streak to seven, to match their previous win streak. (And give the Cubs their longest winning streak of the year, too.)

Bruce Miles today tackles three topics we've discussed here at length recently: the futures of Jeff Baker, Milton Bradley and Carlos Marmol. Bruce correctly sums up what Jim and Lou did to ruin this year's bullpen (and without even mentioning Kevin Gregg):

If Jim Hendry is guilty of anything over the years when it comes to his bullpen, it's overthinking things and overpaying for veteran arms. Field manager Lou Piniella had a hand in things last off-season, when he basically ran Michael Wuertz out of town and Hendry traded for old favorite Aaron Heilman.

Wuertz, for whom the Cubs have nothing to show, is 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA and a tidy WHIP (walks plus hits per 1 inning pitched) of 1.01 with Oakland. Heilman is 2-3 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.

For next season, the Cubs ought to focus within. Keep Marmol the closer, let Angel Guzman set up and re-sign lefty John Grabow, who has been effective since his trade from Pittsburgh. Promote from within, and you might get the job done at a fraction of what it has cost the Cubs over the years for mediocrity and worse.

Beyond Guzman, Grabow and Marmol, the Cubs have a large number of good arms at Triple-A, many of whom we've seen this year (Justin Berg, Jeff Stevens, Esmailin Caridad) and at least two we haven't, but who will be in the Arizona Fall League (Andrew Cashner, John Gaub). AFL players are often on the fast track to the majors. It seems to me that you could put together a pretty decent major league bullpen out of some of those arms, rather than overpaying for mediocre veteran middle relievers. And closers, too; Gregg joins a long list of failed veteran acquired closers for the Cubs (Dave Smith, Doug Jones, Mel Rojas -- need I go on?).

Today's Starting Pitchers


Rich Harden Cubs	vs.	Justin Lehr Reds

9-8	W-L	4-1
4.10	ERA	4.43
162	SO	16
59	BB	19
23	HR	5
vs. Cin	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Rich Harden	9-8	25	24	0	0	0	0	134.0	115	68	61	23	59	162	4.10	1.30

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Justin Lehr	4-1	7	7	1	1	0	0	44.2	46	22	22	5	19	16	4.43	1.46

Today's game is a rematch of the August 5 game in Cincinnati where the Cubs failed to show up. Oh, they were there in body, but let Justin Lehr throw a four-hit shutout. Since then Lehr has been -- not so good, going 3-1 in five starts, but with a 5.58 ERA. That's the guy the Cubs need to pound today. He's walked 19 and struck out 16 in 44.2 innings, so patience at the plate today should help.

Rich Harden threw well enough on August 5 -- two earned runs in six innings. Playing at Wrigley, where the Cubs swept the Reds in July, should help. Harden threw one of those games, on July 26, allowing the Reds only one hit in six innings, a solo HR by Joey Votto. That's the only career hit Votto has had off Harden in 10 AB.

TV today is WGN, plus FSN Ohio (which means EI viewers get to hear the Brennamans. Turn the sound off). For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Reds site Red Reporter.

Once again, just two overflow threads today -- 2:30 and 3:30 pm CDT. If there's a need for another one, please post as a FanShot.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Cubs September Callups Announced

Al — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 13:02:01 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

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There will be eight players added to the Cubs' active roster over the next several days, now that the September 1 roster-expansion date has arrived.

Gordon Wittenmyer has the list, and all eight have been major league Cubs at one time or another already during 2009:

The Cubs plan to recall outfielder Micah Hoffpauir and right-hander Justin Berg from Class AAA Iowa and reinstate infielder Andres Blanco from the disabled list when rosters expand today.

Right-hander David Patton is expected to rejoin the active roster from the DL on Wednesday, and four more I-Cubs are to be recalled as the Class AAA season winds down: infielder Bobby Scales and right-handed pitchers Jeff Samardzija, Jeff Stevens and Esmailin Caridad.

I'd quibble with Gordo's description of Hoffpauir as an "outfielder", but the activation of Andres Blanco is good news. It means that we have likely seen the last of Aaron Miles in any games this year, unless some upcoming game goes deep into extra innings. As Josh tweeted yesterday, Hoffpauir is now the Iowa Cubs' all-time career RBI leader (281 RBI). This isn't necessarily a positive thing; it likely means a player has spent way too much time in the minor leagues. Also, with Jason Dubois swapped to the Mets and, as also noted in Josh's tweet, Chris Robinson leaving Iowa for the Canadian national team, Jake Fox is likely to be the Iowa team leader in RBI this season with 53, despite playing only 45 games there. (Not to mention that Fox is also tied for sixth on the major league Cubs with 39 RBI.)

Try to enjoy the rest of the season.