SB Nation - Chad Fox

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:33:52 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

I've done pictures of Randy Wolf for three straight days, so here's one of LaTroy Hawkins.

Some things to read while compounding the problem.

The Brewer front office staff is back home from the Winter Meetings, so it's time to take a look at the recaps:

MLB FanHouse lists the Brewers as the big winner in the NL Central.
In-Between Hops ranked the Brewers #1 in free agent signings.
Big League Stew ranked the signings of Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins as the meetings' 6th and 7th biggest moves, respectively.
John Steinmiller has a recap with pictures of what the Winter Meetings looked like from inside the Brewers' suite.

For the time being, the title of "newest Brewer" belongs to Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren, and he's excited for the opportunity. He's been a starter throughout the minors, but it sounds like he'll be given a shot to make the team as a situational lefty. Don't underestimate the value of having one more guy in the bullpen who could be called upon to make a spot start if needed. With that said, he is at best a complement to Mitch Stetter, not a replacement.

Meanwhile, for the second straight day I'm writing about a pitcher who doesn't actually want to be here. Yesterday, it was LaTroy Hawkins, who was "very disappointed" not to return to Houston. Today it's Randy Wolf, who really wanted to return to the Dodgers. Kudos to these guys for being honest, I guess, but would throwing in a "The Brewers are my team now, and I'll work my butt off for them" be too much to ask for?

We could be waiting a while longer for a decision from Mark Mulder. The Brewer front office staff will reportedly visit Mulder in January. Given the fact that this was being reported as a nearly done deal months ago, I'd guess there's a question about Mulder's health.

With Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez all projected as members of the opening day starting lineup, Ken Macha has acknowledged he'll probably have the runners in motion much more often during the 2010 season. That prompted Miller Park Drunk to launch their "RUNNING" series. I'll link to the Ken Macha and Corey Hart chapters here...the other two are a little too obscene to even be linked from this site.

In the minors:

Tom H. has a great look (with a terrible headline) at the situation faced by Jeremy Jeffress, as he prepares to return to the minor leagues knowing that one more positive drug test will be the end of his baseball career. Jeffress, who will spend the first few months of the 2010 season in extended spring training, is saying all the right things, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Earlier this week I mentioned Project Prospect's look at the speed of AFL players, and mentioned the absence of Lorenzo Cain from the rankings. Adam Foster filled in the gap for us by looking back at video and giving Cain a 55-65 rating, which is well above average.

Voting continues for our BCB All Decade Team: You have until 4 today to cast your vote for a shortstop, where J.J. Hardy leads Mark Loretta by 281 votes as of this writing. The voting is much closer at third base, where Bill Hall leads Craig Counsell by 54 votes with Russell Branyan and Ryan Braun not too far behind. Voting for our first outfield spot will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Astros: Signed Pedro Feliz to a one year, $4.5 million deal and reliever Gary Majewski to a minor league deal.
Athletics: Released reliever Santiago Casilla.
Nationals: Released pitcher Zach Segovia.
Reds: Signed infielder Chris Burke to a minor league deal.
Rockies: Signed Chris Iannetta to a three year deal worth $8.3 million, buying out his arbitration years.

I've already mentioned the Brewer Rule 5 draft pick, Chuck Lofgren, but he's nowhere near the best name selected in the draft. Those honors go to former National/new Blue Jay Zech Zinicola.

The possibility of winter league injury probably keeps some front office execs up at night during the offseason, and in all honesty I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often. D-Backs outfielder Gerardo Parra suffered a muscle tear in his left thigh and is coming home from winter ball in Venezuela (h/t AZ Snakepit).

If you like charts and graphs and you're looking for something to play with today, you should check out Chartball. I only spent a few minutes there this morning, but they've got some fun interactive tools to work with. (h/t Baseball Musings)

On this day in 1997, the Brewers traded Gerald Williams to the Braves for Chad Fox. The deal worked out pretty well for both sides: Williams hit .286/.341/.475 over two seasons as a Brave, and Fox was healthy for two of four seasons in Milwaukee, including the 2001 season, where he appeared in 65 games and posted a 1.89 ERA.

Happy birthday today to Josh Butler, who turns 25.

Oh, and I'm writing today's Mug before breakfast, so this was fascinating. I'm off to go find food.

Drink up.

Cubs Decline Arbitration To Gregg, Johnson, Harden And Chad Fox

Al — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:01:31 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Will Reed Johnson return? If so, it won't be under arbitration.

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The headline tells most of the story; no arbitration offers to Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson, Rich Harden and Chad Fox -- here are a few more details from cubs.com, including this final paragraph:

The Cubs are in the market for a center fielder and could still re-sign Johnson, but if they did offer arbitration, they ran the risk of him getting a significant raise.

For the right price, I'd definitely like to see Johnson returning. A lot depends, I suppose, on other moves made first.

Cubs Not Expected To Offer Arbitration To Harden

Al — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 15:00:53 -0000

by Paul Beaty - AP

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Or Reed Johnson, Kevin Gregg, or Chad Fox, per Carrie Muskat:

A brief explanation (and I'll try to keep it simple): Teams that offer their free agents salary arbitration get Draft picks in return if the player signs elsewhere, and the number of picks is based on the player's rating. To get compensation, a team must offer arbitration to its Type A or B free agent and have that player either reject arbitration or sign before the deadline to reject the said arbitration.

The Elias Sports Bureau determines the designations based on statistical study. Gregg is a Type A free agent, Harden is Type B. Johnson and Fox are non-compensatory. So, if the Cubs did offer arbitration to Gregg and another team signed him, the Cubs could get two Draft picks. One would be a first-round pick from the signing team (if the team's pick is below the first 15 picks in the Draft) and a supplemental pick. The supplemental pick is a player taken between the first and second rounds.

If the signing team has a pick in the first 15 slots, the team that loses the free agent will get the signing team's second-round selection and the sandwich pick.A Type B free agent like Harden would be worth one Draft pick to the Cubs if he signs with another team. That pick is a supplemental pick.

I'm not quite sure how Gregg rates Type A and Harden Type B, but there it is. The Cubs clearly don't want Gregg back, so they won't offer arb even though two picks would come in return, because he'd likely accept and the Cubs would be stuck with him. Chad Fox, obviously, will likely retire. Since Reed Johnson is non-compensatory, it makes no sense to offer him arb -- if the Cubs want him back, they can negotiate with him as a complete free agent.

The official deadline is tomorrow; we'll know more by then.

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

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Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 14:32:43 -0000

by Jeff Roberson - AP

Dave Bush is pulled out of the game by Ken Macha as Jason Kendall stands by during the fourth inning Wednesday.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while overextending yourself.

The Brewers managed to get eleven baserunners in six innings off of Chris Carpenter last night, the second most he's allowed all season, but the pitching staff couldn't keep the Brewers in the game long enough to give the team an opportunity to win. There's no shame in being outpitched by the bionic arm of Chris Carpenter. Jeff Passan of Yahoo has a profile of the Cy Young candidate and his dozens of surgical scars.

Dave Bush couldn't beat Carpenter last night, so he plunked him instead. That HBP was the 50th of Bush's Brewer career, making him the new franchise leader. He also picked up his 51st later in the game. After the game, Bush brushed off the suggestion that he could have used more time in the minors to prepare for his return. With the Brewers now below a 1-in-1000 shot of making the playoffs, they've got plenty of time to give Bush a few more starts and see if he straightens himself out.

Mike Cameron might be back next season after all: He told reporters he would be willing to make a sacrifice to remain in Milwaukee for 2010. FanGraphs has Cameron at 3.9 WAR for the season, the third highest total on the team.

Corey Hart is ready for a rehab assignment, and will spend the weekend with Nashville to see if he's ready for a return to big league action. He won't exactly be bumping aside a whole lot of vaunted prospects in the outfield in AAA: Yesterday's Sounds outfield featured both Corey Patterson and recent independent leaguer Tike Redman, with Jon Knott, another recent indy leaguer, pinch hitting. The Sounds lost to Memphis for the second straight day, dropping a game and a half behind in the division.

The Brevard County Manatees are playoff bound, and after months of living in the dark, we finally have a site covering them. Space Coast Baseball will be doing live audio broadcasts from Manatees games over the weekend and in the playoffs. The site is still pretty new, but it's great to have resources like it out there.

J.J. Hardy has gone 1-for-4 each of the last two nights since returning to the major leagues. What do you expect the Brewers to get for him this offseason? The Blue Jay Hunter would like to see him in Toronto, and is willing to offer relievers Jeremy Accardo and Jason Frasor, who would do a lot to help solidify the Brewer bullpen for next season but would still leave a gap in the rotation.

Meanwhile, Chris Capuano pitched well in his first appearance in Helena, throwing two scoreless innings. His velocity is down a bit, but that's to be expected from someone who's undergone Tommy John surgery twice. It'll be interesting to see what happens with Cappy after the season: He probably owes something to the Brewers, who spent all season rehabbing him despite very faint hops he'd pitch in 2009, but he'll also be a free agent.

The Brewers are commissioning focus groups to discuss what fans liked and didn't like about this season's Brewer team and ballpark experience. I'm guessing "more winning," "lower concession prices" and "cheaper parking" will be the suggestions.

The Brewers are up two spots to #18 in MLB FanHouse's Power Rankings.

Around baseball:

A's: Claimed pitcher John Meloan off waivers from the Pirates.
Giants: Designated pitchers Ryan Sadowski and Jesse English for assignment.
Nationals: Acquired minor league reliever Victor Garate as the PTBNL in the Ronnie Belliard trade.

We've hit September, so it's time to start talking about mathematical eliminations. As Jon Heyman noted, the Nationals were eliminated from contention in the NL East last night. The Orioles have already been eliminated from the division race as well. A Nats loss or a Rockies win today would eliminate them from contention for the Wild Card as well.

As a rule, I typically skim over or skip most things written by athletes on the web: They rarely have anything interesting to say, and would get themselves in trouble if they did say something worth noting, for the most part. With that said, I'm glad I didn't skip over this post at Baseball Analysts by A's prospect and Harvard grad Shawn Haviland, discussing the statistics that minor league pitching coaches do and don't care about, and how fluctuation in BABIP can impact them.

Rob Neyer and Wezen-ball offer their insights on old time pitchers, and how hard they actually threw. Neyer's analysis seems about right to me: they threw hard enough to earn a living today, but wouldn't dominate as they did then.

Getaway days in San Diego are going to suck next season: The Padres are moving the start of weekday day games from 12:35 Pacific Time to 3:35, meaning East Coast and Central Time Zone teams probably won't get out of San Diego until 7 or later local time, then face a cross country flight where they'll lose several hours in the air.

Congratulations are due out to former Brewer farmhand Michael Brantley, who picked up his first major league hit last night.

On this day in 1901, the original Milwaukee Brewers (who would later become the St. Louis Browns and Baltimore Orioles) lost both ends of a doubleheader, 10-0 and 6-1, to the original Baltimore Orioles (who would later become the New York Yankees). Joe McGinnity pitched complete games in both games for the Orioles.

On this day in 1976, Mike Hegan hit for the cycle as the Brewers beat the Tigers, 11-2. On this day in 1991, Jim Gantner homered (ending a 1762 AB homerless streak) and the Brewers scored three runs in the ninth to beat the A's, 5-3.

Happy birthday today to two former Brewer bullpen arms: Chad Fox, who turns 39, and Eric Plunk, who turns 46.

Oh, and yesterday was probably the only time William Ernest Henley will come up in baseball conversation this season.

Drink up.

Cubs All-Star Break Report Card

Al — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:55:06 -0000

More photos » by John Smierciak - AP

D-Lee is on pace for his second 30 HR, 100 RBI season.

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Expanding on BCB reader Zeke's "Midterm Report Card" posted yesterday, I thought I'd chime in with my own midseason grades.

I'll post letter grades and comments for the current 25-man roster plus four of the five players currently on the 15-day DL (I don't think you really need a letter grade for Chad Fox, do you?) -- Ryan Dempster, Geovany Soto, Aaron Miles and David Patton.

First, let's assign an overall grade for the team. That's got to be a C+. A team with an average record would, taking the grading system absolutely literally, get a C. Right? That's smack in the middle of the grading curve and the Cubs are quite literally exactly that. Not only do they have a .500 record, but they are very nearly dead even in runs scored and runs allowed. With 355 runs scored and 353 runs allowed, the Pythagorean run-projection system would predict a .500 record. It's not quite that simple, of course; the 353 runs allowed is the third-fewest in the National League (in fact, third-fewest in the majors, since the fewest in the AL is Seattle's 366).

So the pitching staff, despite injuries, gets an A-. The offense, though, ranks 15th in runs scored (and 14th in BA, 13th in OBA, and 13th in SLG). It's been, to use a phrase quoted here regarding Jake Fox's defense a while back, "a notch above horrific". D- for the Cubs offense to date.

Now, on to comments regarding individual players, separated by position.

Catcher: Geovany Soto, C-. Geo might have been worse had he not started to hit on May 12. From that date till he suffered the oblique injury in BP last week, he hit .264/.358/.507 with 8 HR and 23 RBI in 44 games, not too far off his pace from last year. That type of injury is tough to come back from, so who knows when he'll be back. Count this as a lost year for Geo; if he works hard next offseason, he could still come back to last year's level.

Catcher: Koyie Hill, B. That grade may sound high, but Hill has done exactly what he's been asked to do. .213/.300/.315 isn't a great line, but he's a backup catcher. Most of them can't hit. Hill plays good defense and every once in a while, comes up with a key hit. This is one offseason move that actually worked.

First base: Derrek Lee, A-. D-Lee got off to a horrendous start and was hitting .189 on May 1. Since then he has posted a .313/.390/.591 line in 55 games, with 16 HR and 47 RBI -- MVP-type numbers. If he can keep this up in the second half, that's one part of the puzzle of getting those who have hit in the past to do so again.

Second base: Mike Fontenot, C-. Fontenot's numbers are down and you can't blame simply playing him every day -- he's hitting .236/.322/.369 vs. RHP. It was telling that Lou sat him for Jeff Baker vs. RHP the last couple of days before the break.

Second base: Jeff Baker, Incomplete. Baker is 3-for-14 as a Cub; too early to tell.

Second base: Aaron Miles, F. I can't think of a single time that Miles did anything to help his club win.

Shortstop: Ryan Theriot, B+. Theriot started driving the ball to hit with more power at Lou's suggestion, and after an adjustment period, he has kept his batting average up and still hit with more pop. His .299/.354/.423 line gives him a .777 OPS -- if he could bump that up just a bit to .800, he'd be a very useful player.

Third base: Aramis Ramirez, Incomplete. A-Ram was off to a fine start when he suffered the shoulder injury on May 8. He is 6-for-24 -- all singles -- since his return. I hope the break helps him get more strength back, as well as his timing. He may not hit for his previous power till next year.

Infield: Andres Blanco, B-. Blanco doesn't hit much, but he's not expected to. He plays good defense and can bunt when asked. He serves a useful spot as the 25th man.

Left field: Alfonso Soriano, D-. Wow, has he been bad this year. Or more correctly, for some of this year. On May 17, he was hitting .280/.343/.580 with 12 HR and 25 RBI in 35 games, seemingly on the way to one of his better years. The Cubs, not coincidentally, were 21-14, their high point of the season at seven games over .500. Since that date he's hit .196/.262/.280 with 2 HR and 8 RBI and the Cubs have gone 22-29. I'm not saying Soriano's performance is solely responsible for the poor play over that period -- but we all know how he can carry a team when he's hot. It does not seem possible that he suddenly forgot to hit or lost his abilities in the middle of a season. Therefore, the only conclusion I can draw is that he's been playing hurt and refusing to go on the DL. If he's still hurt starting Thursday, the Cubs have to seriously consider putting him there, whether he wants to go or not.

Center field: Kosuke Fukudome, C. Again, a mid-May stop in production. On May 15 he was hitting .340/.462/.557 with 4 HR and 17 RBI. Since: .190/.296/.327 with 3 HR and 10 RBI. His overall OPS of .787 is better than last year, and he still leads the team in walks with 43. Platooning seems to help -- he's got an .803 OPS vs. RHP.

Right field: Milton Bradley, C-. My position on Bradley is well-known, so I won't go into detail. I proposed the other day that he be tried at leadoff, since he is drawing more walks lately and in the absence of his RBI bat, why not use him where he could actually do the team some good? Since June 29 he is hitting .303/.511/.455 in 13 games -- note the OBA higher than the SLG -- so perhaps there is hope for Bradley.

Outfield: Reed Johnson, C. Johnson's numbers are down a bit from last year and he again spent time on the DL with back problems. If healthy (and he appears to be now) and if he can bump his production up to last year's level, he is one of the better 4th OF in the league.

Outfield: Sam Fuld, B. It's hard to give a grade for 16 at-bats, but Fuld plays hard and has produced while he's been in the lineup. I'd like to see him stick around.

Bench: Micah Hoffpauir, C+. Hoffpauir's numbers are down from last year, and I had hoped he'd hit closer to .300 than the .244 he's posted so far. His 8 HR have helped, including the three-run job he hit in Sunday's first game. His outfield play has been acceptable; I had worried that he'd be horrendous out there, but he's actually been a decent backup outfielder.

Bench: Jake Fox, B-. It was well-known that Fox could hit major league pitching, but there was that "notch above horrific" knock on his defense. Finally pressed into service at 3B after virtually everyone in the known universe said "TRY HIM THERE!", he was... well, not horrific. There's no reason he shouldn't have been playing there within a week of A-Ram's injury. Fox is better suited to DH'ing, but I'd like to see him stay anyway.

Starting pitcher: Carlos Zambrano, B. Z has had, as he often does, some good games... and some bad ones. He has pitched at least six innings in 13 of his 16 starts and his ERA of 3.53 is just about his career average. He's got to step that up in the second half. Give some credit for his hitting, too: 3 HR and a .719 OPS. In fact, among all pitchers who have at least 500 career plate appearances, Z has the fourth-highest career SLG (.393) and the best of anyone whose career began in the expansion era.

Starting pitcher: Ted Lilly, A-. Congrats to Ted on his All-Star selection, his second, well-deserved. He has gone at least six innings in 16 of his 18 starts. And look what the maitre'd of the Italian Village restaurant, celebrating 50 years in that job, said about Ted in today's Tribune:

Favorite recent visitor: "A pitcher for the Cubs was here, Ted Lilly, one of the most beautiful persons there is. Him and his wife both. Unbelievable."

Starting pitcher: Ryan Dempster, Incomplete. Despite the serious illness of his infant daughter, Dempster went at least six innings in 15 of his 17 starts before the bizarre broken toe incident. That'll heal and I expect him to come back strong in a few weeks.

Starting pitcher: Rich Harden, D. Harden has been far from the dominant pitcher the Cubs got from the A's last year. He's had a couple of dominant starts where you think he's going to get back there, and then he gets pounded again. The Cubs need him to get back on track.

Starting pitcher: Randy Wells, A-. I cannot say enough good things about Randy Wells, who was barely on the radar screen during most of his Cubs career; they thought so little of him a year ago that they let him go in the Rule 5 draft. Thanks to the Blue Jays for sending him back; Wells is a ROY candidate, and if he had enough innings to qualify, his 2.72 ERA would rank fourth in the NL.

Swingman: Sean Marshall, B. Marshall is being misused as a LOOGY by Lou, but he has done as he's been asked. Since June 1, when moved to the bullpen full-time, he has a 1.80 ERA in 15 innings covering 18 appearances. Only 5% of his inherited runners have scored, best in the NL.

Relief pitcher: Kevin Gregg, B+. After a rough start, Gregg has become one of the more reliable closers in the NL. He has saved 16 in 18 chances, and since that nasty meltdown vs. the Astros on May 16, he has a 1.48 ERA in 24 appearances covering 24 innings, with 6 walks, 22 strikeouts, and only 2 HR allowed. This has turned out to be another good pickup by Jim Hendry.

Relief pitcher: Carlos Marmol, C. Marmol's troubles with control have been well-documented and discussed on this site. He has to get that back to be successful in the second half, and the Cubs need him to do that. It's just that simple.

Relief pitcher: Angel Guzman, A-. Guzman, once heralded as "the next Zambrano" in the Cubs farm system, suffered through several years of injuries before becoming the most reliable reliever in the 2009 bullpen. He may be the closer-in-waiting, rather than Marmol. Keep up the good work!

Relief pitcher: Aaron Heilman, D-. If this man would ever learn to throw strikes on a consistent basis, he'd be valuable. Until then, I'd use him in mopup duty only. I read somewhere (can't find the link now) that he's never been the same since he allowed the game-winning HR to Yadier Molina in game seven of the 2006 NLCS.

Relief pitcher: Jeff Samardzija, Incomplete. Samardzija has been in only eight games this year, only three since his recent recall, and only one the Cubs have actually won. If they want him to succeed, they probably should send him back to Iowa.

Relief pitcher: Jeff Stevens, Incomplete. Stevens has talent, but it's impossible to grade him on one major league appearance.

Relief pitcher: David Patton, Incomplete. Patton, too, has talent; perhaps the Rule 5 rules need to be changed so pitchers like this don't waste half a season appearing in garbage time, then get stashed on the DL (I saw Patton throw in the bullpen on Sunday and he doesn't look injured.)

The overall grade may be middling now, but this team has more talent than it's graded out to be so far. There is still time for players with abilities they've shown in the past to do it again.

Zambrano's Childish Antics Overshadow Cubs' 5-2 Win Over Pirates

Al — Wed, 27 May 2009 22:07:57 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Z arguing with umpire Mark Carlson. He had a point, but it got lost in the shouting.

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Carlos Zambrano is one of my favorite players. He brings passion and joy to playing, he's always out there trying his best and bringing his "A" game every time he steps on the field. He got hurt attempting to catch the Marlins sleeping and beating out a bunt.

But really, Z -- it's time to grow up. You will be 28 years old on Monday. Your ranting and raving today is probably going to cost you a start -- replays clearly showed contact between you and plate umpire Mark Carlson, although it also appeared that Carlson deliberately advanced toward Z, almost as if he wanted to make contact himself so as to get another suspension to his credit -- and then, your histrionics in throwing the ball almost to the LF wall and your glove toward the dugout has to worry your manager. After throwing 114 pitches, you heave the ball 300 feet? Better have your shoulder looked at, too. I looked at a replay of the ejection and subsequent argument. After the contact was made, it looked as if Z turned to Carlson and said, "You touched me first, I'm ejecting YOU!" And he has a point. Umpires are out of control and I hope Bob Watson and the disciplinary people around him take a very close look at the video. Z was wrong; he certainly deserves a fine for his actions. But Carlson initiated the contact.

In his postgame remarks, Lou sounded like a rueful dad who's going to have to punish his favorite child: "I'm going to have to have a talk with Carlos", he said, sounding like he'd rather have several teeth pulled without anesthesia.

Replays on the play in question, incidentally, showed Nyjer Morgan's hand on the plate just before Z's tag after a pitch got away from Geovany Soto. Morgan was safe -- and I think Carlson may have given the Cubs a makeup call in the 8th when Soto scored on Andres Blanco's double down the line that made the score 4-2.

All of this took away from a nicely-pitched game by Z (why he was in the game in the 7th inning anyway is open to question, as he had thrown 108 pitches through six), and the Cubs' second win in the last 24 hours, 5-2 over the Pirates, marked by nice play from Reed Johnson in particular. Johnson made an outstanding running catch on a deep fly ball in the top of the 7th by Adam LaRoche, and then broke the tie in the bottom of the 8th with a solo homer, his second dinger this week. Milton Bradley tripled and looked, at last, as if he's finally running at full speed again; he also made a nice running catch in the ninth inning and doubled Freddy Sanchez, who had walked, off first base. Sanchez had nearly rounded third; why he was that far off base is inexplicable, but the Cubs will take it. Kevin Gregg registered his seventh save, but had Bradley not made the catch, it might have been nervous time again; Gregg walked two before striking out Nate McLouth to end it.

Also overshadowed today were the multiple roster moves by the Cubs. Andres Blanco, Jake Fox and Jason Waddell were all added to the roster, as we have discussed earlier today. Blanco started at 2B -- what a difference. He can actually field his position. Fox pinch-hit for Carlos Marmol in the 8th and after looking a bit lost for the first few pitches, he skied a RBI double to the wall in right-center. Incidentally, there has now been a Fox on the Cubs' 25-man roster at various times every year since 2005 (except 2006); Chad in 2005, 2008 and 2009, and Jake in 2007 and 2009. Yet they have never once appeared in the same game. Are we sure they're not the same Fox?

Kidding. But I'm not about this -- tonight is Jake Fox Jersey Day in Des Moines. Maybe they can send them all to Chicago and hand them out tomorrow.

It was chilly -- there were quite a number of people who must have driven in from the western or southern suburbs where it was in the 70's and who were way underdressed for the 55-degree temperature -- but the rain held off and when the sun made a few peeks from behind the gloomy gray overcast, big cheers erupted from the 22,000 or so of the announced 38,314 who actually showed up today. They saw the Cubs right their ship, just in time for the Dodgers to come to town tomorrow. Let's hope Z calms down and avoids suspension.

And grows up a little. (The umpires need to, too.)

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 11 May 2009 14:31:31 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Ryan Braun had an up-and-down weekend.

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Some things to read while getting the truth.

The Brewers took two of three from the Cubs over the weekend, but the main topic of conversation coming off the series is the second straight homestand where a pitcher has thrown near Ryan Braun's head. Ken Macha wants MLB to look into it. Baseball Musings likes the way Braun responded to it. Adam McCalvy noticed the difference between Braun's reactions to the Dempster pitch and the Jeff Karstens pitch from two weeks ago. The Brewers are tied for the major league lead with 17 HBP, and Braun, Prince Fielder and Jason Kendall have taken 14 of them.

Baseball Musings thinks the Brewers should have scored more runs yesterday. They went just 6-for-33 at the plate, but five of the six hits went for extra bases and the Brewers had six walks. Timing just didn't work out.

Some would argue that continuing to send Jason Kendall to the plate also doesn't help. Balking Traditionalism is working on a formula to determine when it makes sense to pinch hit for Kendall. We'll also have more on the topic later today.

The issue will probably come up more often once Mike Rivera is back. Rivera is in Omaha today to start a three-game rehab assignment with the Nashville Sounds, and if all goes well he's expected back in the lineup on Thursday when Dave Bush returns to the mound. The whole rehab assigment concept seems a little strange in this case: Certainly, Rivera is used to going 15 days between games, but it's been years since he's played in four straight, which is what he'll be doing on Thursday.

Speaking of Dave Bush: he picked up a no-decision on Friday, meaning he's still just 1-0 despite having pitched 40 innings this season, easily the most innings pitched by someone with just one decision.

Elsewhere in statistical anomalies: Saturday night's game featured a combined 40 strikeouts and walks, the sixth most since 1970.

Bill Hall is hitting .292/.364/.483 through 99 plate appearances, and while his numbers are significantly higher against lefties, he's not looking completely outmatched either, drawing ten walks to keep his line at .222/.329/.349. Ken Macha, though, is expected to start Craig Counsell at third when the Brewers open their series with the Marlins tomorrow. Take a moment to consider these numbers:

Counsell since Opening Day 2007: .233/.349/.322
Bill Hall against righties in 2009: .222/.329/.349

Hall has posted a .678 OPS against righties in 2009, so Macha is replacing him with Craig Counsell's .671 OPS? I'm confused.

The Marlins series will also mark the return of our old friend Wes Helms. Wes doesn't understand why he gets booed in Milwaukee:

"I don't know what they're going to do. They might throw rocks at me," said Helms, who is puzzled by the recent chilly receptions he has received. He played well in his three seasons as a Brewer (2003-05).

"I can understand Philly booing me because I struggled there, but Milwaukee? I had good years there," he said. "I never said anything in the paper. I never did anything, so I don't know. Part of the game, I guess."

Wait...what? Helms' best season as a Brewer was in 2003, when he was barely above average as a hitter.

One minor note today: Cole Gillespie continues to struggle in AAA after getting a late start due to injury, and At The Old Ball Game says he's not ready for AAA. Gillespie is the #10 prospect in our community rankings.

I expected people to notice the recent Brewer hot streak, but this might be a little much: Foul Balls has moved the Brewers up to second in the NL and third overall in their power rankings.

Here's one ranking that is deserved, though: Home Run Derby gave the Racing Sausages a #1 seed in their bracket to determine baseball's best mascot.

Around the league:

A's: Designated Ben Copeland, their 2009 Rule 5 pick, for assignment and acquired Adam Kennedy from the Rays for Joe Dillon (h/t FanShot).
Cubs: Placed Aramis Ramirez on the DL with a dislocated shoulder, DL'ed Chad Fox with elbow inflammation, and acquired Ryan Freel from the Orioles for Joey Gathright. (h/t FanShots)
Diamondbacks: Placed Yusmeiro Petit on the DL with a shoulder strain.
Mariners: Carlos Silva has been placed on the DL with stiffness and inflammation in his shoulder.
Nationals: Released Gary Glover.
Pirates: Signed catcher Adam Melhuse to a minor league deal.
Red Sox: Designated reliever Javier Lopez for assignment.
Royals: Placed Joakim Soria on the DL with shoulder soreness.
Yankees: Designated relievers Steven Jackson and Eric Hacker for assignment.

Chad Fox's most recent elbow injury will likely end his major league career. Fox, a former Brewer, has already had multiple Tommy John surgeries and has three screws in his elbow. He sounds like he's glad he gave it one last shot.

The Cub Reporter has done the math and expects Aramis Ramirez to miss around 50 games. The Cubs, however, only play the Cardinals and Brewers in five of those games.

Major League Baseball briefly slammed on the brakes on a cool promotion yesterday, stopping players from wearing black and pink cleats which would later be auctioned off to raise money for a cancer-related charity. MLB had not approved the charity, so they ordered players across baseball, including Prince Fielder, not to wear the cleats. A resolution was later reached to allow players to wear them, but I didn't see if Fielder had his on.

Do you like living in the country and want to own a piece of baseball history? Cy Young's birthplace is for sale, and Let's Go Tribe contacted the realtor to ask some questions about it.

Ryan Braun still has a long way to go to reach this record: Carlos Delgado was plunked by Ian Snell yesterday and now has been hit by pitchers from 36 states, a major league record.

Want to work in baseball? The Book Blog has links to three internships with the Yankees.

Oh, and if you're an opposing closer in Denver, you may witness an episode of Mascots Gone Wild.

Drink up.

Miller Park Lights Go Out, But Brewers Light Up Cubs Bullpen, Defeat Cubs 12-6

Al — Sun, 10 May 2009 12:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Darryl Dyck - AP

I'm sure you'd much rather look at this photo than anything from last night's Cubs game.

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The Chicago Blackhawks beat the Vancouver Canucks 4-2 last night, taking a 3-2 series lead and with one more win, will be in a conference final for the first time in 14 year. The 'Hawks...

Oh, wait. You mean this hasn't turned into a hockey blog? It might as well have after last night's ridiculous 12-6 Cubs loss to the Brewers.

If the Cubs can salvage the final game of this series, they will come home with a winning road trip, something I suspect they could really use after the three losses so far in Milwaukee (yes, I said "three": two lost games and one lost third baseman).

Don't blame A-Ram's injury for this one: the Cubs generated some offense even without him last night, with 11 hits and seven walks. That produced six runs. It should have been more: the seventh inning was particularly ugly, when the Cubs loaded the bases with one out, only to see Micah Hoffpauir strike out and look bad doing it and Geovany Soto hit a meek little grounder to Craig Counsell for a ofrce to end the inning. (Credit where credit is due: Hoffpauir's two-run homer in the fifth had been the only Cub offense up to that time.)

That was when the score was only 3-2 Milwaukee. Why Lou chose to send Ryan Dempster, who had thrown 111 pitches and might have had other things than baseball on his mind (there were radio reports yesterday that Dempster's new baby has been in intensive care since birth a month or so ago), out to throw the seventh inning is beyond me. Dempster had nothing left and gave up a pair of solo homers to Counsell (who hadn't homered since last June 17 and had only that single roundtripper in his previous 380 at-bats) and Ryan Braun. Even that might have been manageable, but Neal Cotts and David Patton got pounded and the inning ended with the score 9-2 Milwaukee.

I've been lobbying for the last couple of days for Chad Fox to be removed from the roster -- and he will be now, because the inevitable Fox elbow injury happened during his 8th-inning appearance. I actually feel bad for him; he is, from all accounts, a good guy and a hard worker. To see him led off a major league mound, injured, and probably for the last time, was sad. He'll be placed on the DL, and as we have discussed, that way he'll pile up the service time he needs to get to 10 full years in the major leagues and get an increased pension. I hope the Cubs recall Jeff Stevens, who has been impressive at Iowa, to replace him on the roster. (While they're at it, bring up Jason Waddell and let Cotts go.)

The Cubs mounted a comeback during a bizarre eighth inning during which half the lights at Miller Park went off, forcing a 10-minute delay. When they got the lights back on, Milton Bradley doubled in Kosuke Fukudome, bringing the Cubs to within 9-6, but between the injured Fox and the wild Aaron Heilman, they put the game out of reach at 12-6. Cubs pitchers walked nine last night -- way too many.

Finally, there's enough blame to assign some to Lou. In addition to leaving Dempster out there too long, his original lineup had Ryan Freel at 3B, but Bobby Scales got the start because Freel came up with tightness in his left hamstring. I wanted Scales in the lineup, but at 2B, not 3B. Scales isn't a very good third baseman and it showed in the first inning, when Braun tried to steal third. Geo's throw got away; the error was charged to Geo but perhaps Mike Fontenot, who should have been at 3B with Scales at 2B, would have stopped it and kept the first-inning damage to a single run.

Enough. Win today and the road trip is, at least, a modest success. The pregame thread will be up at 11:30 am CDT.

Soriano's Two HR Help Lead Cubs Over Astros 8-5, But The Chad Fox Mystery Deepens

Al — Fri, 08 May 2009 13:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Alfonso Soriano gets high-fives from Aaron Miles after his second homer of the game in the ninth inning last night.

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It's a good thing Alfonso Soriano hit two home runs last night, one of them in the ninth inning, because if Chad Fox had come into the game with only a 4-2 lead, we might not be talking about a Cubs victory this morning.

Of course, Fox probably wouldn't have been in the game at all with a 4-2 lead; the only reason Lou decided to give him some work is likely the fact that the Cubs' four-run ninth gave the club a six-run lead, and that's supposed to be safe enough to give the last guy in your bullpen some work.

Safe enough, maybe; but by the time Fox was done, Lou had to summon Kevin Gregg, even though it wasn't yet a save situation. Gregg did allow the Astros' final run to score, but threw only nine pitches in finishing off the 8-5 victory, the Cubs' sixth in their last seven games. With Milwaukee's loss to Cincinnati, the Cubs moved ahead of the Brewers into sole possession of second place, 2.5 games behind the Cardinals, going into this weekend's series against the Brew Crew at Miller Park (didn't we just do this Houston/Milwaukee trip? Thanks, bad schedule makers!).

Can we declare the Chad Fox experiment over, give him his gold watch, and send him off into retirement? Did he inherit the Neifi Perez Memorial Collection of compromising photos of Jim Hendry? He couldn't find the strike zone (8 strikes in 17 pitches, and several of those strikes were hit hard) and appears done. What did he do last night that Jeff Stevens couldn't do? Stevens, despite also having some control issues at Iowa, has given up only four hits in 13 innings for a 0.85 WHIP. I hope Jim Hendry recalls Stevens; he'd be the perfect last guy in the pen, plus, that would give the Cubs at least some positive return in the Mark DeRosa deal. And can we also declare the Joey Gathright experiment over? He misplayed a ball in CF in the 9th last night (getting signals crossed with Soriano) that wound up as an Ivan Rodriguez triple. I'd DFA Gathright today when Randy Wells is called up for tonight's start and keep Bobby Scales as a bench player.

The rest of the team did just fine last night, pounding out 14 hits off Russ Ortiz (again, I ask: why does this guy still have a major league uniform) and five Houston relievers, including a shelling of Felipe Paulino in the 9th (they'd almost have been better off with Ronny Paulino pitching). Meanwhile, Ted Lilly threw a solid six innings; his only real mistake was a two-run homer to Miguel Tejada, surprisingly Tejada's first of the year, which gave the Astros a brief 2-1 lead. They didn't score again until Fox came into the game in the 9th. Four Cubs had at least two hits, and Aramis Ramirez had three, raising his average to .369.

I suppose I protest too much. The club looked good last night; even Ryan Theriot, who got picked off third base and took the Cubs out of a possible big inning in the first, redeemed himself later by walking, doubling and scoring two runs. In addition to the 14 hits, the Cubs drew five walks and continue to be on a pace that will approach the team record for a season (650, set in 1975). There are, though, a couple of players on this roster that just don't belong there, Fox and Gathright. It's time to send them home.