SB Nation - Tim Byrdak

Roster Breakdown: The Money

davoag — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:12:42 -0000

I mentioned there would be a more in-depth look a the Astros 2009 roster today and this is the first part of that attempt. My plan is to look at three different phases of the roster, starting with the monetary worth of all the players, followed by how the position players performed and then how the pitchers did. Hopefully, by knowing what the Astros were last year, it will help predict what they need to do in 2010 to be successful. Onward and upward after the jump...

Helped by the wonderful people over at FanGraphs, I charted the Astros entire roster on both their value in dollar amounts and their actual salaries, which I got from Cot's Baseball Contracts. I added all of them up to get the team's total value for the season and how much money they actually spent. I should also note before we dive into analysis that I adjusted the pitcher's values for their batting, which I'll talk about more in a minute.

The Astros players performed at a value worth 95.2 million this season, while the payroll came in around 106.2 million. This means the team underperformed the payroll by about 11 million dollars. I was a little surprised at this, as I mentioned yesterday in the Dave Clark story, the Astros outperformed their pythag record by six wins. I thought this might translate into value for the club. It did, but not to the extent I expected.

In fact, if we discounted the pitchers' batting, the team would have outperformed payroll by about 7 million, but some of the pitchers, like Oswalt, Wandy and especially Moehler, all were hugely affected by poor batting. Moehler went from one of the few bargains on the team to being one of the biggest detriments. Oswalt also underperformed his contract by about 3.7 million, though he was one of a handful of Astros to contribute double-figure value.

On the plus side, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence combined to produce 33.9 million of the Astros overall 95 million value. Both are playing on pre-arbitration contracts, so were the two biggest values on the team. Wandy was also a huge value, adding 11.8 million over his 2.6 million dollar contract, but lost 3.8 million because of his hitting. That seemed a bit high to me, but as I thought about it more, the only way pitchers can't hurt their team batting-wise is to pitch in the American League, and I'm not sure Wandy would have put up the same value if he had pitched in the tougher league.

Who else were values? Jeff Fulchino came in fourth, with a 3.2 million positive difference, while Mike Hampton was fifth at 2.6 million. It also didn't hurt that Hampy added 0.8 million with his bat. Chris Sampson and Alberto Arias were the next two on the list and the last two that topped 2 million in positive difference between their contracts and their worth. Anther surprise for me was Edwin Maysonet outperforming his contract by one million.

The other side of that coin is the guys who underperform, and the worst at that was Carlos Lee. At -7.9 million, he had the biggest negative difference on the team. The only two players coming close to that were Darin Erstad and Jose Valverde, who both clocked in with negative-5 differences. Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak were the next two on the bottom, followed by Geoff Geary and Roy Oswalt. The reason so many of these guys are relievers is that their salary greatly exceeded their worth. In fact, the only one who added positive value to the team was Valverde at 3 million. Quick shot analysis of this is that relievers really are fungible, so it's silly to pay more than a million dollars for all but the best closers. Otherwise, you're wasting monetary resources on a position you can fill many different ways.

As for Lee, that contract is an absolute albatross. His hitting is great and all, but his defense hurts the club out in left field and he won't always hit like he's doing now. On the current open market, you can definitely find a bargain that can hit 30 homers and bat .280 for left field without spending 10 million per year, much less the 18.5 Lee earned in 2009.

That's all the analysis I'm going to do now, because I'll get into more detailed looks at player performance later, but I've included the data I used for the entire team for you to peruse below. Look for more posts on the managerial hiring process too as we get more information.

	WAR	Salary	Difference
Bourn	18.700	0.435	18.265
Pence	15.200	0.439	14.761
W. Rodriguez	14.400	2.600	11.800
Fulchino	3.600	0.400	3.200
Hampton	4.600	2.000	2.600
Sampson	2.700	0.449	2.251
Arias	2.500	0.402	2.099
Quintero	2.300	0.610	1.690
Rodriguez	3.100	1.500	1.600
Gervacio	1.900	0.400	1.500
Blum	2.600	1.200	1.400
Keppinger	1.700	0.428	1.273
Maysonet	1.400	0.400	1.000
Norris	0.400	0.400	0.000
Sadler	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Towles	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Manzella	-0.200	0.400	-0.600
Kata	-0.300	0.400	-0.700
Berkman	13.600	14.500	-0.900
Tejada	11.800	13.000	-1.200
Paronto	-1.100	0.500	-1.600
Bazardo	-1.200	0.405	-1.605
Ortiz	-1.100	0.750	-1.850
Michaels	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Boone	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Lopez	-1.600	0.400	-2.000
Hawkins	1.500	3.500	-2.000
Johnson	-2.000	0.375	-2.375
Moehler	-0.200	2.300	-2.500
Wright	-2.100	0.425	-2.525
Matsui	2.400	5.000	-2.600
Coste	-2.500	0.460	-2.960
Backe	-1.500	1.500	-3.000
Paulino	-2.600	0.405	-3.005
Smith	-2.800	0.500	-3.300
Oswalt	10.300	14.000	-3.700
Geary	-2.000	1.700	-3.700
Byrdak	-3.200	1.000	-4.200
Brocail	-2.200	2.500	-4.700
Valverde	3.000	8.000	-5.000
Erstad	-4.100	1.750	-5.850
Lee	10.600	18.500	-7.900

Can the 2010 Astros be competitive?

DyingQuail — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 12:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Dave Einsel - AP

My opinion: 2010 hinges on this man's performance.

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I'll admit from the outset that this depressing for me to write for two reasons. One, of course, being that it's depressing that I can't find anything worth writing about the 2009 Astros and two being that I am left wondering how the 2010 Astros can do better than their 2009 version. This ominous thought has been lurking in the back of my mind since I did an interview with Fred Fauor a few weeks ago in which the topic of how the 2010 Astros should assemble themselves left me clawing for any semblance of hope (which is a sports fan's best friend in times like these).

The logical place to start this conversation is payroll. A team can't build something if it can't afford to buy the requisite building materials. Everytime I have tried to account for the dollars and cents of the core of the Astros roster for next year I've totaled $75 to $82 million. This roster includes (with best guess efforts for arbitration bonuses and salary escalation):

Lance Berkman
Carlos Lee
Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Hunter Pence
Michael Bourn
Jeff Keppinger
Kazuo Matsui
Tommy Manzella
Miguel Tejada (anywhere from $6 million to $11 million. The latter would actually be his fair market value at 3B if he replicated 90% of his offensive production from this year, assuming a cost of $4.5 million per WAR)
LaTroy Hawkins (anywhere from $4.5 million to $7 million to be our closer)
Bud Norris
Felipe Paulino
Brian Moehler
Yorman Bazardo
Sammy Gervacio
Alberto Arias
Chris Sampson
Wesley Wright
Tim Byrdak or some a near equivalent LOOGY
Humerto Quintero
Jason Castro
JR Towles or Brian Bogusevic
Rounding out the roster with relief pitchers that will have an average price tag of $1.25 million

This would be a young Astros team compared to their previous few versions, so there is of course the ability to infer hope from it because the projections for many of these players has a wide range of variance. But is that the kind of hope that we as Astros fans—especially most of the regulars here, who all have a far more sharply objective view of baseball—want claim? Can we even claim that as hope? I guess the answers to that are personal and subject to one's own preferences.

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) for you, the readers, I get to work out my thought process in front of you. For those who just want to move past this discussion, I'll do this after the jump.

If we have learned anything from the 2009 version of the Astros it is this: A seemingly stacked offense is not a good way to build a baseball team. The fact of the matter is, and will continue to be, that the core of our line up has skill set that is high slugging percentage relative to on-base percentage. This, as we now are so painfully aware of, does not an offense make. There's just no consistency in such a skill set and that fact was exacerbated by poor managerial strategy by the man at the helm of the offense, Cecil Cooper.

Even if the Astros front office decides to spare us the indignity of having Cecil Cooper continue to pull all the levers of the 2010 Astros, offense will not be our strong suit. This leaves us to the lesson we all learned in 2005: If you've got pitchers who pitch well, the team will perform well. As of right now, the only starting pitcher I put on the list above who I have confidence in is Wandy Rodriguez. I hope that Roy Oswalt will pitch well on a consistent basis in 2010, but his continued climb into his thirties, combined with his worrisome back issues, don't fill me with the confidence that the Wizard once inspired.

Dratyon McLane has already announced that payroll in 2010 will be lower than payroll in 2009, and has cited attendance this year as the motivation for this reduction. If payroll is scaled down to match in the loss in attendance revenues this year, than would place the Astros at somewhere within a million or two dollars of $90 million. That doesn't leave a lot of dough to fill out the bench and bullpen, while also buying the services of another top-tier pitcher to complement Roy and Wandy.

That leaves the likely candidates as Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo, and Brian Moehler. However, it's hard to say that all aren't question marks in my mind. I doubt that our starting rotation will include more than two of the above to start the season, as I am sure there will be some manner of reclamation project scooped up by Ed Wade this winter. I also doubt that this unnamed pitcher will be more than a giant question mark in my mind as well. How can I be so confident that whatever Ed Wade pulls off the scrap heap will be a question mark? Just take a look at the options.

Bud Norris has flashed brilliance this season, but Wandy Rodriguez had a long and torturous journey to consistently being brilliant, so it's hard for me to place too much hope in Bud. Were Bud Norris to speed up his learning curve and provide legitimate number three services, then the Astros would have a strong rotation. Not 2005 strong, but strong enough to inspire confidence, and dare I say it, hope. Were Bazardo, Moehler, Wright (who'll be auditioned as a starter this spring, allegedly), and whoever is Ed Wade's reclamation project, to be relegated to the four and five slots, then they're imperfections and questions marks wouldn't matter as much. 2009 has been dismal mainly because 3/5 of the time there's no reason to expect good things from the guy taking the mound. At times, when injury has felled Wandy and Roy, there's almost no reason to hope for anything other than an offensive explosion to mask the deficiency in pitching.

So I've talked myself to this point: Should Bud Norris be an effective starting pitcher next year, I think that the 2010 Astros can be competitive. Do I have hope? There's a glimmer of it. Am I being unduly pessimistic? I'll leave that for you to decide. Have I missed/glossed over something? Probably. Again, tell me where I went wrong.

Monday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 11:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

It's gotten to the point where we're posting photos of ex players.

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After the New York Times levied pitch tipping allegations against Miguel Tejada, Tejada saw fit to respond yesterday:

"I've never tipped pitches," Tejada told MLB.com before he was given a rare off-day from the starting lineup on Sunday as the Astros closed their three-game series at Chase Field. "I love this game and that's not the way I play it. I'm a proud player. I would never do such a thing. It's tough to get a hit. And for me to tip pitches to anybody, that's crazy. I play for my team."

From what I can tell, it seems questionable that he was knowingly tipping other team's hitters as to what pitch was about to be thrown, despite former teammate Johnny Damon's assertions that "it seemed like all the Dominican guys were killing us." Sorry, but I don't really trust Damon's reflections on a particular nationalities' success against his team 8 years ago.

JJO raises the same point that clack did weeks ago- have Bud Norris's IP total caught up to him? Dewey Robinson seems to think that Norris is doing fine, and that skipping him in his next start will do him good. As far as September call ups are concerned, Round Rock pitcher Billy Sadler will get a call up once the RR season is through. Anyone with information on him is welcome to chime in. Wes Wright will also join the Astros in Chicago....also,

Time to welcome some vets, folks. Doug Brocail and Aaron Boone will be added to the major league roster on Tuesday. Chris Sampson, Tommy Manzella and JR Towles are other possibilities to be added to the club in September. Chris Johnson, for those who were wondering, isn't on the 40 man roster and therefore isn't eligible to be called up.

First Jeff Bagwell gets in the news after RJ touts him as next Astros' manager, then Beyond the Boxscore does a post on the top 14 first basemen of all time in terms of WAR, and Bags is #6 on the list:

He had excellent power (perhaps not completely appreciated due to his home park) and an exceptionally good batting eye (149 walks in 1999), which helped him post a career OBP of 0.408. He also had excellent speed for a second baseman, topping 30 steals twice, and was a fine defender throughout most of his career. He led the league in runs scored three times, and won the MVP in the strike-shorted 1994 season with a crazy 0.368/0.451/0.750 season (that's 39 home runs and 9 WAR in 110 games, folks)...He becomes eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2010. I have a hard time reading the rest of the mainstream media, but I suspect that his teammate Craig Biggio will have an easier time than Bagwell despite having the weaker, albeit longer career. Lack of association with steriods may help both of them given the current backlash against suspected users.

The group of players ahead of Bagwell, Gehrig, Cap Anson, Jimmie Foxx, Roger Connor and Dan Brouthers, all had careers that were finished before WWII. Is Jeff the greatest 1B of the post WWII generation? At least by one measure, yes. (At least until Albert finishes up, that is). Frank Thomas was not a part of the list, as he was considered to be a DH. Before Bags had to exit the game, their stats were remarkably similar...as were their birthdays!

Elias released its most recent classifications of players. Astros' free agents that are either classified as A or B:

Miguel Tejada, B

Jose Valverde, A

LaTroy Hawkins, A

Doug Brocail, B

Tim Byrdak, B

Building a team the Astros way, and building a team the smart way

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 11:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

An entire outfield of 2009 free agents could be assembled, make less money than Carlos combined and out produce him dramatically.

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The Astros are going to have to indulge in the free agent market of 2010 in order to field a competitive team next season. I don't think that anyone here would try to argue that point. How and who are the two questions that go along with free agent signings, as in how much to spend, and who to sign?

Well, it's still too early to really get down to the nitty gritty of things, but what we can do is look back and identify bargains and trends in the marketplace. Sky Andrecheck of Baseball Analysts did just that in a recent post which looked at the free agent class of 2009 and built a team from those players. He describes his experiment much better than I ever could, but suffice it to say, bargains do exist.

Who did he select to be a part of the club?

Catchers: Gregg Zaun, David Ross

Infielders: Wes Helms, Felipe Lopez, Casey Blake, Juan Uribe Craig Counsell

Total $ spent: $15.3 million, Total WAR: 13.1

Outfielders/DH: Bobby Abreu, Juan Rivera, Scott Podsednik, Raul Ibanez

Total $ spent: $35 million, Total WAR: 23.6

Starting Pitchers: Mike Hampton, Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, Randy Wolf, CC Sabathia

Total $ spent: $78.8 million, Total WAR: 35.3

That club is good for a 71-49 record through 120 games, solid enough for a playoff spot. Bargains are easier to find offensively than in pitching, so the Sabathia signing was by leaps and bounds the most outlandish contract he chose to take on.

Painfully, let's determine the Astros' team WAR, or at least a rough approximation of it.

Offensively: The entire Astros' offense (not counting the negative values that most of our pitchers/bench has contributed) is good for a WAR of 15.1. Unlike the all free agent team, the Astros offense has gotten 43% of its output from two players: Lance Berkman and Michael Bourn.

Sort of a "fun" sidenote: Pudge's WAR in total is .8, while his Astro-WAR is .6. He's added .2 WAR since joining the Rangers....less than 2 weeks ago.

Pitching: Just counting our starting pitchers' contributions, including the negative WARs for Brandon Backe and Felipe Paulino, the staff WAR is 7.5. Add it all up, and the Astros have a 22.6 team WAR, 12.7 wins less than Andrecheck's fictitious club. Drayton McLane has also spent roughly $20 million more on the players who I used in this article, not counting fairly large contracts for relievers like LaTroy Hawkins, Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak, and bench players like Jason Michaels and Darin Erstad.

I come to the same conclusion as Andrecheck does: it's possible to build a playoff contender just in free agency, but it's too difficult without being able to look back on things. There are plenty of ways to be successful in MLB, but it's becoming obvious that the Astros aren't doing any of them.

Astros win the most uncomfortable 6-3 game—ever

DyingQuail — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 03:35:27 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

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After being way prematurely yanked to satisfy whatever rumbling was occurring in Cecil Cooper's gut, Yorman Bazardo was removed and lost a shot at being the pitcher of record. I was looking for Bazardo's start to make me feel good about our prospects in 2010 and Yorman did little to let me sleep well tonight: 4.2IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 1K, 4BB using 95 pitches (maybe 98, there's some controversy). That's a 1.93K/9, 0.25K:BB, and a paltry 1.05K/100. Not exactly what I was hoping for.

To say that Bazardo lacked control would be an understatement. At times he flashed crisp fastballs and an excellent slider/change-up combo and others he had an inability to keep his fastball down and his breaking stuff in the zone. The one positive I can laud Bazardo with is that he managed to work his way out of jams and limit the damage. In fact, he should have been able to complete the full 5IP were it not for Kaz Matsui bobbling the ball on the exchange of botched GIDP. Coop went with Tim Byrdak who managed to continue not being effective against lefties without Coop catching on. Instead of allowing Byrdak to pitch to RHBs, who he's actually more effective against, Coop went to Samuel Gervacio who needed five pitches to collect the third out...something that would earn him the pitcher of record nod (reason #583958277134 that wins are meaningless).

Jeff Fulchino, LaTroy Hawkins, and Jose Valverde all combined to finish off the Marlins, who still collected over ten hits for the fifteenth consecutive game. Valverde, however, continued his streak of having a total inability to just go get three outs without giving an entire city a collective heart attack. With two outs, Valverde decided to walk two batters, then hit Wes Helms. After an eleven pitch battle with Chris Coghlan, Valverde recorded the K and the final out. He has got to stop doing that.

Here are the positives from the offense:

Michael Bourn did it all: bunt hit, stolen bases, advances on errors, ridiculous plays in centerfield, and he clocked a 3B. Ridiculous night.
Lance Berkman had a multi-hit night.
Humberto Quintero crushed a homerun off the Conaco porch in left center.
Carlos Lee, after looking his weight in the first inning, made two "amazing" defensive plays in the 8th and 9th innings.
Hunter Pence collected a hit and a walk, but also two SB. Between Pence and Bourn, the Astros were 4/4 on the base paths—it's a miracle.
Miguel Teajda broke out of his 0/19 streak with a 2B. He then GIDPed in his next AB.
Jason Michaels contributed a PH 2B.

via www.fangraphs.com

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Astros 2 — Brewers 6: Post Game Mad Lib

DyingQuail — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 03:07:54 -0000

More photos » by Ron Kuenstler - AP

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I can't bring myself to write anything about this, so I'll let you guys do the work for me. Just copy and paste the story into the comments section and fill it in.

The Astros _______ (adverb) lost another _______ (adjective) game on this _______ (adjective) road trip. Brian Moehler, like the rest of his peers in the rotation, need 105 pitches to get through 5IP, while giving up 3 runs. Not wanting to wear out the ______ (adjective) Moehler, Cecil "______" (adjective or entire phrase) Cooper went to the bullpen.

The sixth inning was a _______ (adjective) as Coop _______ (adverb) needed three relief pitchers to give up three more runs. For some ________ (long winded descriptive phrase) reason, Coop went with Tim Byrdak to face off against LHB Prince Fielder. In the end, Coop was pleased with the fact that he got to use number of relief pitchers in no more than 1IP stints. ________________________________________ (entire sentence reacting the previous sentence or paragraph if you wish).

Thankfully, Roy Oswalt takes the mound tomorrow. Maybe, just maybe, the ________ (noun) that is this road trip will end.

Oh and congratulations to Kaz Matsui. I'm not sure why this was such a story, buy you now have 2000 career hits in both Japan and MLB.

via www.fangraphs.com

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The Value of Hunter Pence: Should the Astros consider trading him?

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 11:00:19 -0000

With the playoffs seemingly more and more like a fleeting memory for Astros' fans, the 2009 off-season is becoming more and more the topic of conversation around TCB. It's safe to say that this year's squad has played reasonably well considering the constraints (payroll, injury and lack of talent) that were omnipresent from day one of Spring Training.

A good number of questions have been answered in my mind as well. Could Michael Bourn prove himself to be a viable centefielder? Yes. He's done that and then some, in my estimation. What about Wandy Rodriguez? Is this the season he finally puts it all together? You bet he has. For the first time as a major leaguer, luck has been on Wandy's side, as evidenced by his high LOB% and his FIP, but still- he has pitched like a top 20 NL starter. Paired up with Roy, Wandy should be able to pitch at this level for another 3-4 seasons. Which is perfect, because then the reinforcements come in from the low minor leagues (knock on wood).

While those questions have been answered in the affirmative, there are unresolved questions as well. What about the bullpen, are any of these guys worth bringing back for 2010? Ed Wade did a good job of grouping together a reliever corps around the big salaries of Jose Valverde, LaTroy Hawkins and Doug Brocail. Pitchers like Chris Sampson, Alberto Arias and Jeff Fulchino have pitched well until recently, when the invisible ceiling of innings pitched seems to have affected them adversely. Wesley Wright is too versitile and young to give up on, so I would expect him to be given every opportunity to earn a spot in spring training next season. Tim Byrdak has not done his job as a LOOGY this season and is 34 years old. Bud Norris is a wildcard- will he remain a starter, or will the Astros shfit him to a late innings role as a reliever?

The other question I want to focus on is concerns Hunter Pence. It's getting to be that time in his career where the Astros need to decide whether or not to extend him, pay him more in salary arbitration or trade him. Pence plays a good right field, is a fan favorite and has improved his plate discipline at the detriment of his power numbers. While he's definitely above average, he is not a super star, and I doubt he has the potential to approach that status.

This isn't to say that Hunter doesn't have value. He does. It just depends on what kind of value you're talking about. With Wandy and others due a raise in 2010, Pence ranks in the bottom half of all RF in terms of wOBA. Again- his being ranked 17th may seem unimpressive, but to an offensively challenged team like the Astros, his value is greater than you may initially think. That fact, coupled with his relative youth and ability to improve further are factors the front office would weigh when deciding what to do with Mr. Pence in 2010 and beyond.

What would really interest me, is if the Astros would at least consider trading Hunter Pence for an infielder who can play in the middle or 3B. I don't know what kind of value teams place on RFs compared to infielders, but I would assume that outfielders are easier to come by. Defensively, those positions are harder to play than RF, which forces a team to concern themselves with more than just a player's bat.

Another factor that is important is the state of the Astros' minor leagues. Brian Bogusevic, Drew Locke, and Jonathan Gaston are three OFs who will all be in the mix I would imagine in the upcoming seasons to be contributors on the major league level. Those constraints I mentioned earlier- specifically age, and contracts will keep them all from playing significant time.

On the flip side, I could not find one infielder in AAA or AA that jumps off the page and screams "middle infielder of the future". Jiovanni Mier is finding early success in professional ball, and scouts like his makeup and potential. He would be a huge answer to our infield problem if he can continue on his current path. The Texas Rangers' Elvis Andrus is a big leaguer at age 20, and is someone that Mier has been compared to. I'm projected out a few seasons, and a lot can happen in the meantime, but I have faith in Bobby Heck.

While it's doubtful that Hunter Pence would be traded, I at least think it's an interesting option, and one that the Astros potentially would have the luxury to make if a few minor league OFs continue to produce.

Astros crest .500 for the first time in 2009: Astros - 3 Dodgers - 0

DyingQuail — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 05:42:44 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

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This will easily the first time that I won't mind having had to stay alert until 12:20 AM CDT to write a game recap. The Astros started off the second half of the season in encouraging fashion with Wandy Rodriguez battling through what HLP and I remarked, via phone, to be one widely inconsistent, but wide, strike zone to shut out the Dodgers for six innings. After that, Tim Byrdak, Alberto Arias, LaTroy Hawkins, and Jose Valverde combined to honor Wandy's effort and slam the door on a shut out on the best team in baseball whose fabled slugger, Manny Ramirez, was back in LA for the first time since his attempt to restart his ovaries landed him a 50 game suspension.

The positives (there will be no corollary negatives):

Wandy Rodriguez posted the following line: 6IP, 5H, 0R, 6K, 2BB, 7 GB outs, and 5 FB outs on 108 pitches, 68 of which were strikes. That's a 3 K:BB and a 5.56 K/100. Not the greatest outing ever, but against a team who is near the top in just about every offensive category of worth in the NL—pretty stellar. Thanks, Wandy.
Humberto Quintero felt bad about stranding Kaz Matsui after Kaz just missed a HR in the 3rd, so he went ahead a crushed his first HR of the year to deep right center field.
Cecil Cooper pulled the right lever by inserting Darin Erstad as Lance Berkman's defensive replacement and it paid off in spades with Erstad making two pretty dazzling plays to keep the Dodgers from truly threatening the Astros. The problem of watching the game on mute is that you don't find out Lance Berkman left the game with a calf strain until it pops up in your RSS feed after you hit publish...
Alberto Arias continues to honor everyone here at TCB who pegged him to be a dark horse for the Astros in 2009 by working out of he and Byrdak's jam in the 7th by striking out Juan Piere and Raphel Furcal before getting a GB out on Andre Either.
Carlos Lee didn't have an embarrassing moment in the game.

So yeah, all in all a good night. The important part is that for the first time in 2009, we're winners. Drink it in.

via www.fangraphs.com

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Here Come The Astros

Eric Stephen — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 14:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Astros' 1B Lance Berkman reacts to a mixup when he said earlier in the season that he wanted the club to improve their K/9 ratio.

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The Dodgers welcome the Houston Astros to town for a four-game series starting tonight, to begin the second half of the season, as well as a ten-game homestand, Manny Ramirez's first home game since May 6. The Astros are all even at 44-44, but since June 1 they have played much better, going 24-15 (although only outscoring their opponents by seven runs during that span, for a .520 pythagorean winning percentage).

The Astros' recent surge has rekindled talk of a potential playoff berth. As Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chrocnicle noted:

Since 1997, the Astros have been .500 or better at the All-Star break seven times. Guess what. They made the playoffs in six of those seasons.

Solomon also noted it might take 90 wins to win the NL Central. To date there has been no word of manager Cecil Cooper concocting a life-size, tearaway cardboard Drayton McClane (or Rachel Phelps).

The Astros are led on offense by Lance Berkman, along with All-Stars Hunter Pence and Miguel Tejada, and Carlos Lee.

Pos	Player	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+	wOBA	EqA
1B	Berkman	.271/.403/.526	147	.395	.321
RF	Pence	.298/.366/.473	123	.362	.290
LF	Lee	.308/.353/.485	122	.359	.288
SS	Tejada	.329/.357/.473	120	.359	.287

In addition, Houston has received an unexpected fine season from a speedy outfielder who hasn't really hit much the last few years, in Michael Bourn. Sound familiar, Dodger fans? Bourn is hitting .286/.360/.407, with a .350 wOBA, and leads the National League with 32 stolen bases.

Roy Oswalt is still doing his thing for the Astros (5-4, 3.90 FIP), but surprisingly their best pitcher this season has been Wandy Rodriguez. The 30-year old (I know, I was shocked when I saw that, too -- hasn't he been around forever?) is 8-6 with a 3.65 FIP, 142 ERA+, and 106 strikeouts in 112.1 innings. Oswalt, with ten no-decisions, has been battling Randy Wolf for the major league lead in that category.

Friday's game looks like the featured game of the series, with the Oswalt/Billingsley pitching matchup.

Their entire bullpen has been effective, putting up a 3.21 ERA since June 1, while striking out 7.83 batters per nine innings over that span. The back end of the Astro 'pen has been filled with power arms: closer Jose Valverde, LaTroy "Screaming Line Drive" Hawkins, Alberto Arias, and lefty Tim Byrdak.

2009 Astros
Record	44-44, t-3rd NL Central, 3½ GB
Pythag Record	41-47 (11th in NL)
Runs Scored	4.18/gm (t-12th in NL)
wOBA	.321 (7th in NL)
Runs Allowed	4.52/gm (7th in NL)
FIP	4.34 (9th in NL)
Defensive Efficiency	.686 (13th in NL)

The Crawfish Boxes is the Astros blog on SB Nation. Here is some insight from them recently:

HighLeveragePerformer (great screen name) compared each Astro's actual value, using Wins Above Replacement (WAR), to their salary.
Mr. Performer (or does he use a D.L. Hughley-type H.L. Performer?) also looked at the shrinking power of one El Caballo, Carlos Lee.
Dying Quail reviewed the Astros' 44-44 first half.

The clubs met earlier in the season in Houston, and the Astros took two of the three games, handing the Dodgers their first series loss of the year:

April 21 - Astros 8, Dodgers 5

April 22 - Astros 6, Dodgers 5

April 23 - Dodgers 2, Astros 0

The Astros swept a three-game series at Dodger Stadium last season, and have not lost a season series to the Dodgers since 2004. I will be covering the Sunday game, my first since the home return of Manny Ramirez. It will be interesting to see the difference in the clubhouse.

Pitching Probables

Thursday, 7:10pm: Wandy Rodriquez (8-6, 3.65 FIP) vs. Randy Wolf (4-3, 4.25 FIP)

Friday, 7:10pm: Roy Oswalt (5-4, 3.90 FIP) vs. Chad Billingsley (9-4, 3.51 FIP)

Saturday, 7:10pm: Mike Hampton (5-6, 4.26 FIP) vs. Clayton Kershaw (7-5, 3.52 FIP)

Sunday, 1:10pm: Russ Ortiz (3-4, 4.43 FIP) vs. Hiroki Kuroda (3-5, 3.60 FIP)

21 Hits, 13 Runs, 4 HR's, 1 CG!!!! Only 1 BB from Craig Stammen...Washington Nationals 13-2 Over Houston Astros.

Ed Chigliak — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 03:26:12 -0000

Final - 7.11.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Washington Nationals	2	0	0	3	1	3	4	0	0	13	21	0
Houston Astros	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9	0
WP: Craig Stammen (2 - 4) LP: Mike Hampton (5 - 6)

Complete Coverage >

Why not just look at this and enjoy it for a moment, DC Faithful...

BACKPAGE: (After The Jump)...

• Nationals Win...BIG. Go Back To Back To Back!!!

• Stammen Follows The Leader.

• I'm Officially Done With Jim Bowden...

• Sunday's All-Star Futures Game Featuring Danny Espinosa...

Nationals win, 13-2 final.

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

For The Completists, Full Game Report After The Jump...

Nationals now 26-60.

BACKPAGE: (Under Construction...)

• Nationals Win...BIG. Go Back To Back To Back!!!

The Washington Nationals stopped a five-game losing streak with a 21-hit, 13-run explosion on the Houston Astros, knocking left-hander Mike Hampton out after just 3.2 IP in which he gave up 9 hits and 5 ER. The Nationals hit 3 home runs in the sixth off Astros' reliever Felipe Paulino, three home runs in a row that is, back to back to back, Nick Johnson to right just over Hunter Pence's glove, The Hammer Josh Willingham out in a hurry to left and Adam Du...SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!!! Adam Dunn goes into the Crawford Boxes he's been aiming at all series. (ed. note - "Opposite field from Dunn, Eckstein, you genius!") The Nationals put 6 hits and 4 ER up on Paulino, and 5 hits, 4 ER and 1 HR on Houston righty Jeff Fulchino in the seventh as they pile it on in case it never comes back. Nationals win, The Nationals win.

• Stammen Follows The Leader.

Craig Stammen's first complete game comes on the road against the Astros as the Nationals' 25-year-old rookie right-hander holds Houston to 9 hits, 1 walk and 2 ER in 9.0 IP, over which he throws 107 pitches, 69 for strikes and gets 17 groundouts, (1 double play), 8 flyouts and two K's. The one walk Stammen did allow, of course, scored. Michael Bourn started the first with a free pass, took second, moved to third on a sac fly and scored on an RBI groundout to cut into the Nationals' early lead. In the third it was Bourn again, who reached on a fielder's choice, stole second and scored on a two-out double by Miguel Tejada. After letting runners on in the middle innings and getting out of trouble, Stammen retires the Astros in order in the seventh and eighth and gives up a two-out single in the ninth before ending Washington's 4th complete game of the season, joining Ross Detwiler, Shairon Martis and John "Ace" Lannan as the only Nationals' starters to go the distance in the first 86 games of '09. Your turn, Zimmermann!!!

• I'm Officially Done With Jim Bowden...

It's not just that he keeps on sending the same ad/tweet out over and over again. It's all about what Former Washington Nationals' Manager Frank Robinson had to say about the way he was treated by the former DC GM and the rest of the Nationals' brass during his last season at the helm of the nation's capital's favorite ballclub. Washington Post sports columnist Mike Wise talked to the now-79-year-old Hall of Famer recently, and he writes about the conversations in an article entitled, "Robinson Deserved Better", in which Mr. Wise quotes Mr. Robinson stating that he felt "strung along" by, "Bowden, the team's former general manager; Kasten, the team president; and by association the Lerner family...until the very end of his second season in Washington." You really just have to read it for yourself...Make things right with Mr. Robinson, Nationals. The sooner the better.

• Sunday's All-Star Futures Game Featuring Danny Espinosa...

Sunday afternoon, the Washington Nationals get underway at 2:00 pm EST in Houston, while in St. Louis, the Washington Nationals' 2008 3rd Round pick, shortstop Danny Espinosa will be representing the Potomac Nationals and the DC franchise in the 2009 MLB XM All-Star Futures Game. Through 80 games with the P-Nats, Espinosa's hitting .259 with 21 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR's, 41 RBI's, 15 SB, a .365 OBP, .438 SLG and an .803 OPS. The 22-year-old switch hitter was named the "Best Defensive Infielder" in the Nationals' system in Baseball America's Aaron Fitt's preseason rankings of Washington's Top 10 Prospects.