SB Nation - Chris Narveson

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:09:33 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

LaTroy Hawkins and Glenn Robinson faced each other in high school. This is the kind of thing that passes for news in December.

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Some things to read while trying not to dance.

LaTroy Hawkins was in Milwaukee yesterday for his physical, making his deal official (FanShot). As mentioned previously, he's due $3.5 million in 2010 and $4 million in 2011, plus $550k available if he maximizes his incentives. One thing I didn't know until reading it afterwards: Hawkins grew up in Gary, Indiana and played basketball against former Buck Glenn Robinson.

I've mentioned previously that the bullpen situation is starting to fill up, but realized yesterday that I've been leaving Carlos Villanueva out of all of my projections. As Adam McCalvy noted in his story on Hawkins, the bullpen now has Trevor Hoffman, Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva and David Riske, and barring a trade or injury, it looks like Chris Smith, Chris Narveson, Chuck Lofgren and Zack Braddock, among others, are on the outside looking in.

While there may not be much competition for a spot in the bullpen, there will be an interesting race to see who opens the season as the backup catcher. View From Bernie's Chalet handicaps the candidates, and is hoping for George Kottoras to open the season in the majors, with Jonathan Lucroy in AAA and Angel Salome on the trading block. Two quick thoughts on that:

Kottoras is out of options, so unless one of the prospects blows him out of the water this spring, he'll likely make the team.
You can never have too many catchers, so don't be surprised if the Brewers hang onto both Lucroy and Salome and try to work out some kind of rotation in Nashville.

Speaking of competitions involving backup catchers, we need your vote to help select a backup catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. As of this writing, Mike Rivera leads Jason Kendall by 15 votes.

At Mike Cameron's press conference in Boston yesterday, we heard some insight for the first time into Ken Macha's feeling toward the running game last season. 2009 was the first time in Cameron's career he's had single-digit stolen bases, and he said he "ran into a little situation where I had to abide by the rules of the manager, even though I’ve been pretty successful, I mean, 80 percent of the time that I’ve ran." Macha has admitted he'll have to open up the running game a little more this season, but this is the first time I can recall hearing a player talk about restraints last season.

Every now and then the Mug provides me an "Ask and you shall receive" moment. Yesterday I asked about differences in attendance at Miller Park based on the starting pitcher, and Wisconsin Sports Tap did the research, discovering no correlation. Many, if not most, Brewer tickets are probably purchased too far in advance to predict starting pitching assignments, so that's likely what I should have expected.

In the minors: FanGraphs unveiled their Top Ten Brewer Prospects yesterday. Alcides Escobar sits atop the list, as he likely will in just about every set of rankings coming out this winter, but Brett Lawrie climbed in front of Mat Gamel for the #2 spot. We'll be doing our Community Prospect Rankings in January, and I'm curious to see where Lawrie will rank there.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Signed pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league deal.
Dodgers: Signed infielder Jamey Carroll to a two year deal worth $3.85 million and signed reliever Luis Ayala to a minor league deal.
Orioles: Signed reliever Mike Gonzalez to a two year deal worth $12 million, and third baseman Garrett Atkins to a one year deal.
Rangers: Signed pitcher Geoff Geary and infielder Ray Olmedo to minor league deals.
Tigers: Re-signed infielder Ramon Santiago to a two year deal.

The Blue Jays, Phillies, Mariners and A's also finalized their four way deal involving Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. It's been a time for change in Toronto over the last few months: Jordan Bastian noted that the Rogers Centre features three-story images of Alex Rios, Scott Rolen, B.J. Ryan and Roy Halladay. All four will now need to be removed.

In the interest of keeping conversation going and providing fresh content on the site each day, I occasionally post things that wouldn't be front page-worthy during the season, but keep things lively in December. Occasionally when I do that, someone stops by the comments to make sure I know I'm wasting their time, or ask why we're voting for bench players on the All Decade Team. Yes, I know those posts aren't hard-hitting news, but they beat spending a day ranking and discussing your favorite Pixar movies, like Keith Law and Rob Neyer did yesterday.

Earlier this week he celebrated a birthday, and today former Brewer Matt Kinney is the subject of Lookout Landing's Faces series.

Happy birthday today to 1986 and 1989 Brewer Bryan Clutterbuck, who turns 50.

Drink up.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 15:38:02 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Curry - AP

Craig Counsell slides right into the projected 2010 roster.

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Some things to read while she digs for her phone.

It's finally time to back off the comments about Randy Wolf not wanting to be here. Wolf said all the right things in his introductory press conference yesterday, and now actually appears happy to be a Brewer. Jen Lada was also at the press conference, and tweeted four quotes giving a nice feel for Wolf and the organization's excitement to have him.

The Brewers also announced Craig Counsell's new deal yesterday (FanShot). Counsell will earn $2.1 million next season along with some playing time incentives. The Bucky Channel says moves like this one are "crucial when trying to make a smaller market team a contender." Fire Doug Melvin is fine with the move, as long as Counsell doesn't take playing time away from Mat Gamel.

With Wolf and Counsell officially on board and LaTroy Hawkins (physical on Wednesday) and Claudio Vargas (physical on Friday) expected to be added by the end of the week, Adam McCalvy notes that the Brewer 40 man roster is about to be full, which might mark the end of any major Brewer moves in free agency. Two notes on that:

If you're still waiting for the Brewers to sign another starting pitcher, odds are you'll be waiting for a while. Adam McCalvy said Doug Melvin probably regrets comments he made months ago suggesting the Brewers were looking to sign two starters.
Secondly, the 40 man roster may be full, but it's a "soft" full. Room could almost certainly be made by outrighting new acquisition Luis Cruz or Tim Dillard, who would most likely go unclaimed at a time of year when no one has many 40 man spots to spare.

The roster crunch was one of the reasons cited for non-tendering Mike Rivera. Brewed Sports isn't too happy with the decision, and also notes that non-tendering the team's lone returning catcher pokes a hole in arguments used to support starting Jason Kendall last season.

Speaking of crowded situations, you can add David Riske to the list of pitchers to pencil into a bullpen spot to start the season. Doug Melvin said Riske expects to be ready for spring training (FanShot). That's bad news for Chris Smith, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and Chuck Lofgren, among others, who now may be fighting for one roster spot. If Mark DiFelice hadn't gone down, they'd all come to Maryvale on the outside looking in. A lot can happen between now and then, of course.

And speaking of Chris Smith, Brewerfan.net asked someone from the Brewer organization to verify some of their option info, and discovered that Smith doesn't have any options left. Obviously, Smith wouldn't be a major loss, but it's possible someone would claim him if he were available.

Meanwhile, we reached the final conclusion of the Mike Cameron era in Milwaukee yesterday, as he agreed to a two year deal with the Red Sox (FanShot). Cameron's strikeouts and one memorable dropped fly ball made him a polarizing talent as a Brewer, but most advanced metrics seem to agree on his significant value, and you'll rarely hear anything negative said about him as a teammate and clubhouse presence. If you missed it last night, Jordan has a goodbye post for him.

How lucky are the Brewers to have Ryan Braun? I think we occasionally forget how rare it is for a player to have an impact as immediate as his in the major leagues. Braun hit the second most home runs of any major leaguer in their first 162 games, and also collected the tenth most hits, making him the only player to appear on both lists.

Speaking of luck, Braden Looper's 14 wins last season made him the most unlikely winner in major league history.

Another day, another new poll for our BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to select a catcher, and until 4 pm tomorrow to select our final starting outfielder. So far Damian Miller and Geoff Jenkins are leading those votes, respectively.

After looking at the candidates at catcher, I'm starting to wish I had gone this route instead: Camden Chat has an All-Awful lineup for the 2000-2009 Orioles.

And actually, speaking of awful: Rob Neyer has a ranking of the Top 100 players of the 2000's, and while former Brewers CC Sabathia (#25), Mike Cameron (#36), Ray Durham (#71), Jose Valentin (#88) and Corey Koskie (#92) are on it, Prince Fielder is nowhere to be found.

Around baseball:

Angels: Signed Hideki Matsui to a one year, $6.5 million deal.
Astros: Re-signed outfielder Jason Michaels to a one year deal.
Blue Jays: Signed catcher Ramon Castro to a one year, $1 million deal.
Mariners: Signed catcher Eliezer Alfonzo to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Signed pitcher Clay Hensley to a minor league deal.

Of course, the biggest transaction "announced" yesterday appears to be far from done, and may take several days to be made official: A three way deal would send Roy Halladay to the Phillies, Cliff Lee to the Mariners and prospects to the Blue Jays. You might recognize this trade as one several bloggers mocked Ken Rosenthal for suggesting over the weekend. I guess he knows something after all.

Happy birthday today to 2005-2006 Brewer Rick Helling, who turns 39.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:18:55 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Craig Counsell is expected to re-sign today.

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Some things to read while John Tesh rocks the NBA on NBC theme (h/t Amy K. Nelson).

Randy Wolf is expected to undergo a physical this morning and once he does, expect his contract to become official sometime later today. That might not be today's only announcement, though: the Brewers are also expected to finalize a deal with Craig Counsell today. With Counsell, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Casey McGehee all on the roster, the Brewers' Opening Day infield is probably set, barring injury or trade.

Meanwhile, Mike Rivera is surprised to be looking for work after being non-tendered over the weekend. He thought the decision not to retain Jason Kendall would give him an edge as the only returning catcher familiar with the Brewer pitching staff.

As of this writing, roughly 4% of voters in the poll on your right listed the decision to offer Dave bush a 2010 contract as the one Brewer move from this weekend they would change. That's not exactly a large chunk of the fanbase, but In-Between Hops is taking on that vocal minority, making the case that the Brewers made the right move by giving Bush another shot.

If you missed Morineko's Weekend Mug, follow the link over to it for full coverage of the Brewers' arbitration decisions, and a link to this list of all the non-tenders leaguewide.

Looking back at last week, Jon Heyman ranked the Brewers among the Winter Meeting winners. Meanwhile, Marc Hulet of The Baseball Analysts listed Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren in the "Why Bother?" category.

The more I think about it, the more I think Lofgren will have a tough task ahead of him if he's going to make the team out of spring training. With Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas and Mitch Stetter back, there's only two bullpen spots left that are potentially available (barring injury), and Chris Smith, John Axford, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and now Lofgren fighting for them. I like Lofgren's potential and hope the Brewers will get an opportunity to realize it, but right now he might be the third or fourth best lefty in the bullpen competition.

If you have a vague interest in Brewer baseball, but wish there was less analysis and more profanity on this site, then Miller Park Drunk's RUNNING series might be just the ticket for you. Follow these links for bad Prince Fielder jokes, some fan fiction involving Ryan Braun trying to rap, and a vague musical reference to Rickie Weeks.

In the minors: Baseball Intellect has video footage of some at bats featuring Cameron Garfield, Cutter Dykstra and Josh Prince from a Pioneer League game back in July. They're pay-only, but there are worse ways to spend $2.95.

If you were gone this weekend, you didn't miss the opportunity to help select a center fielder and catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. Voting closes at 4 pm today for center fielders and 4 pm tomorrow for catchers. We'll open the voting for the final starting outfield spot later today.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Signed catcher John Buck to a one-year deal worth $2 million, signed Joey Gathright to a minor league deal,
Braves: Signed Matt Diaz to a one year, $2.55 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
D-Backs: Re-signed infielder Augie Ojeda to a one year deal, and avoided arbitration with Blaine Boyer.
Dodgers: Signed pitcher Josh Towers to a minor league deal.
Giants: Signed shortstop-turned-pitcher Tony Pena Jr. to a minor league deal.
Indians: Re-signed pitchers Adam Miller and Anthony Reyes to minor league deals.
Marlins: Signed catcher Ronny Paulino to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Nationals: Re-signed Scott Olsen to a one year deal. Also signed pitcher Ryan Speier to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed pitcher Kevin Correia to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Pirates: Signed Ronny Cedeno to a one year, $1.125 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rangers: Signed infielder Esteban German to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rays: Avoided arbitration with catcher Dioner Navarro and pitchers Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Lance Cormier and Randy Choate.
Royals: Avoided arbitration with pitchers Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies. They also signed pitcher Bruce Chen and catcher Vance Wilson to minor league deals.
White Sox: Signed J.J. Putz to a one year deal.

Meanwhile, the market heated up immediately for Yankees non-tender Chien-Ming Wang, with Ken Rosenthal reporting that six teams have already expressed interest. He doesn't list the teams, but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers are one of them.

I promise, I'm not going to mention it every time someone says something new about Jason Kendall. In fact, I might try to go the rest of the week without mentioning him at all. With that said, I thought these three links about him were interesting:

Joe Posnanski has a look at the potential Opening Day lineup for the 2010 Royals, now including Kendall.
He also compares Kendall to a superball on the field at Cleveland Municipal Stadium.
Reminding us all how far and how fast Kendall has fallen, Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? named Kendall the Pirate Catcher of the Decade.

Weeks ago I linked to a post from minor league veteran Garrett Broshuis, mentioning the challenges in finding quality, healthy food in minor league clubhouses. It looks like that problem may be on its way to being resolved: After discussing it at the Winter Meetings, several teams are making an effort to provide healthier options, and remove the constant flow of junk.

If you're a fan of sabermetrics, or just want to learn more about them, I've got two links for you today:

TangoTiger has a look at OPS+, and some minor adjustments that could be made to it to make it more useful than some other advanced metrics.
That post links to this one, Big League Stew's beginner's guide to wOBA. I learned a fair amount by reading that one.

Gorman Thomas celebrated a birthday over the weekend, and while this probably isn't what he had in mind for a gift, David Chalk of Seventh Inning 'Stache has inducted him into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

On this day in 1998, the Brewers acquired Alex Ochoa from the Twins for a minor leaguer named Darrell Nicholas. Ochoa spent one season as a Brewer, hitting .300/.404/.466 before being traded to the Reds for Mark Sweeney after the season.

Happy birthday today to:

Former Seattle Pilot and 1970 Brewer Greg Goossen, who turns 64.
Dave Nilsson, who appeared in 837 games as a Brewer and turns 40.
Marcus Jensen, who appeared in 18 games over two tours as a Brewer and turns 37.

Sean Forman, founder of Baseball Reference, is also celebrating his birthday today. You can help him celebrate by sponsoring a page. I know someone around here will want this one.

Drink up.

Brewers 9, Cardinals 7

KLSnow — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:08:45 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Curry - AP

Chris Narveson throws during the fourth inning Sunday.

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W: Trevor Hoffman (3-2)
L: Todd Wellemeyer (7-10)
S: John Axford (1)

HR: Prince Fielder 2 (46)

MVP: Prince Fielder (+.482)
LVP: Chris Smith (-.329)

Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage

They certainly made the last one interesting.

Powered by Prince Fielder's two home runs, including a go-ahead shot in the ninth, the Brewers appeared to be ready to complete a three game sweep of the Cardinals in St. Louis, and untuck one final time for 2009. Fielder's three hits in the game left him with a 2009 batting average of .2994, but also in sole possession of second place on the franchise list for most home runs in a season, with 46.

Alas, it was almost all for naught, as the Cardinals rallied to tie the game on Chris Smith in the eighth and again on Trevor Hoffman in the bottom of the ninth, costing him his 38th save and sending the game to extra innings. Then, in the tenth, Jody Gerut drove in the winning run on an infield single, scoring Alcides Escobar with the winning run. Ryan Braun's RBI double drove in another run as the Cardinals imploded defensively,

Jeff Suppan started today's game and went just two innings, allowing one run on two hits, but Chris Narveson picked things up from there, allowing just one additional run over 4.1 innings of work, giving the Brewers an opportunity to run out to a 6-1 lead. With Hoffman already having pitched, John Axford pitched a scoreless tenth to pick up his first major league save.

What should the Brewers do with Manny Parra?

KLSnow — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 19:13:14 -0000

Later this week, Manny Parra will make his last start of the 2009 season, giving him one last chance to maintain some momentum heading into the offseason and spring training of 2010. I don't think anyone got the season they were hoping for from Parra, who's spent part of 2009 in AAA due to ineffectiveness, part of it on the shelf with a stiff neck, and the remainder being either infuriatingly inconsistent or simply infuriating.

Nearly every projection for the 2010 Brewer roster includes Parra in the rotation, and certainly, if he can bounce back from a rough season, he would be one reason to predict a major improvement over 2009. The problem is, Manny Parra hasn't just had a bad season, he's had a historically bad season.. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 120 innings, Parra's 6.16 ERA is the third worst in franchise history:

Pitcher	Year	ERA
Glendon Rusch	2003	6.42
John Snyder	2000	6.17
Manny Parra	2009	6.16
Allen Levrault	2001	6.06
Gene Brabender	1970	6.02

He also has the worst WHIP:

Pitcher	Year	WHIP
Manny Parra	2009	1.784
John Snyder	2000	1.764
Glendon Rusch	2003	1.751
Jeff Suppan	2009	1.692
Jimmy Haynes	2000	1.645

And the third most hits per nine innings:

Pitcher	Year	H/9
Glendon Rusch	2003	12.48
Mike Caldwell	1984	11.43
Manny Parra	2009	11.34
Scott Karl	1999	11.20
Larry Sorensen	1980	11.13

There are a lot of names on those lists that no one should be proud to be listed next to. Even while playing for a franchise that's had more than it's share of terrible pitching in the past, Parra's 2009 season is arguably one of the worst in franchise history.

Obviously, Parra is still young, left handed, and has tremendous stuff when he's on. But it might be time to stop making excuses for him: He'll be 27 years old in October (he's only ten months younger than Chris Narveson), and if the Brewers are serious about contending in 2010, then they could be seriously hindered by a decision to keep trotting him out there and seeing if he can work through his troubles.

If I ran the Brewer front office, there are several courses of action I'd have to seriously consider taking with him. Follow the jump to read about them.

I'll start with the controversial one:

Urge him to play winter ball. After pitching 166 innings in 2008, Manny has thrown 162 this season (including 24.2 in AAA), and will likely finish 2009 with under 170. Without overextending himself too far, Parra could probably make somewhere in the range of 5-6 starts for a winter league team, and those additional starts would give him an opportunity to work things out and potentially build some momentum for 2010. If he can make a few good starts this winter, maybe he'll bring some confidence with him to camp. Even if he struggles in winter ball, he won't have much less momentum than he has now.

Get him a psychiatric evaluation. If you've watched Manny pitch more than one time this season, you've probably seen him pout his way through a rough outing at least once, or sit on the end of the bench and look like he's about to cry after getting pulled. Parra is routinely accused of having a lack of mental toughness, but maybe there's more to it than that.

It wasn't that long ago that Jorge de la Rosa was in a similar situation with the Brewers - great stuff, poor command, "mental toughness" issues. The Brewers eventually traded JDLR to the Royals for Tony Graffanino, and he struggled for parts of two seasons there before being dealt to the Rockies. He struggled there too until he started seeing a sports psychologist. Read through that article and tell me JDLR's problems don't sound a lot like Manny's problems. De la Rosa has made 31 starts for the Rockies this season and is right around league average.

Write him onto the 2010 roster in pencil, not ink. After the season he's had, Parra hasn't earned any favors and should have to earn his way onto the team and into the rotation next season. Even if no one else is brought in to compete for a spot, Parra should have to beat out the likes of Chris Narveson and Chase Wright to be a part of the rotation next spring.

As I mentioned above, Parra is left handed and has great stuff when he's on, but he's also been wildly inconsistent and he'll turn 27 before next season. It's time to stop treating him like a kid and hold him accountable if he's not capable of performing at the expected level.

Rockies 7, Brewers 5 (11 innings)

KLSnow — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 04:19:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Chris Narveson works against the Colorado Rockies in the second inning Tuesday. I missed most of his outing: Did I miss anything?

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W: Matt Belisle (3-1)
L: David Weathers (4-6)

HR:Jason Kendall (2) Chris Iannetta (16)

MVP: Jason Kendall (+.310)
LVP: David Weathers (-.357)

Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage

The Brewers managed some late inning heroics to extend tonight's game, but couldn't quite finish the job.

A 5-2 game suddenly got interesting with one out in the ninth, when Mike Cameron drew a walk, J.J. Hardy singled and Jason Kendall (of all people) tied the game with a three run shot. Claudio Vargas was able to shut the Rockies down in the ninth and send the game to extra innings. He also pitched a scoreless tenth.

In the eleventh, though, David Weathers retired one batter before allowing Chris Iannetta to hit a walk-off two run shot.

I honestly didn't pay a whole lot of attention to tonight's game before the eighth inning or so, but here are the things that jumped out at me:

Chris Narveson looked pretty good until crashing in the sixth. He finished the night with three earned runs allowed on five hits in five innings, and was in line for the loss until Kendall's home run took him off the hook. He also picked up his first major league hit
Ryan Braun had two hits in the game to reach 194 on the season. He now needs six more in the Brewers' five remaining games to reach 200.

Anything relevant I missed? Let me know in the comments.

Dodgers Hope Third Time Is A Charm

Eric Stephen — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 22:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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Much like 1988 and 1995, the Dodgers look tonight to clinch the National League West in San Diego. Petco Park figures to be packed with Dodger fans, much like it was over July 4th weekend, aka The Return of Manny Ramirez.

Chad Billingsley takes the ball tonight, looking not only to secure a spot in the postseason rotation, but also to get a good game under his belt, from start to finish. Billingsley made his major league debut in San Diego, on June 15, 2006, and is 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA in seven career starts down south.

Cesar Ramos will be making his first big league start tonight for the Padres, per Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Ramos, picked in the supplemental round in the 2005 draft, has allowed one run in 5.1 innings of relief this season. The 25-year old lefty was 6-7 with a 3.56 ERA (and a 4.67 FIP) in three minor league levels this year, mostly with Triple A Portland.

Andre Ethier is in a slump right now. Over his last seven plus games, Ethier is one for his last 24 with five walks.

The Dodgers have 45 road wins this season, with two road games left this season. That is tied for the 11th-most road wins since moving to Los Angeles. If the Dodgers can somehow win both games at Petco Park, they will be tied for the sixth-most road wins during that period.

The Dodgers are 17-5 in Tuesday games on KCAL this season, including five wins by eight or more runs.

Vicente Padilla is expected to be available out of the bullpen during this series. Whether it is today or tomorrow, I don't know.

Adrian Gonzalez is having a tremendous season for the Padres. He is the fourth Padre to hit 40 home runs in a season, and is tied with Prince Fielder for second place in Wins Above Replacement for first baseman, with 6.1 WAR, behind Albert Pujols. Gonzalez is sixth among MLB first baseman in plus/minus rating, at +10, and he leads all first baseman with a 5.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. All in all, Gonzalez is a great player and a complete one at that.

Gonzalez has really been hampered by Petco Park, and leads the majors with 28 home runs on the road. Still, he's no slouch at home, hitting .240/.399/.451 with 12 home runs. Why, that's almost as good as Road James Loney, hitting .317/.396/.488 away from Dodger Stadium, with 12 home runs. That's misleading of course, as only a scant few of Loney's games are at the stifling offensive environment of Petco. If only it were that simple.

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The Rockies host the Brewers at 5:40pm, a game that starts roughly 85 minutes before the Dodger game. Jason Marquis will face Milwaukee's Chris Narveson.

5:40pm - Brewers at Rockies Gameday

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Be sure to check out Xeifrank's simulation of tonight's game here.

Don't forget to RSVP for True Blue LA Day at Dodger Stadium, on the next-to-last day of the regular season, October 3 against the Rockies. There are three tickets left.

Get your guesses in for our today's "One, Two, Three Strikes, You're Out," here.

Game Time: 7:05pm

TV: KCAL

Baseball Reference Preview

The fizz has left the brew, but it can still kick your butt

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 18:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

There's no escaping the Brewers' disappointing season.

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At the end of May, the Milwaukee Brewers were 30-20 and leading the NL Central. The Rockies' sweep in early June in Milwaukee (by a total of four runs) started the Brewers' slow down-turn away from contention. They haven't managed a winning month since May, and they currently sit below .500 both at home and on the road.

Their offense is fine - it's their pitching that has killed them. Only the Nationals have allowed more runs to score in the National League. That's not a recipe to return to the post-season.

Interestingly, they have only lost one of their past five series, defeating Arizona and Houston, splitting with Philadelphia and Chicago and losing a series to the Cubs. Despite their struggles this season, they respresent a formidable spoiler, especially if they get a random strong start from a starter.

The Rockies certainly are familiar with Milwaukee acting as a late season spoiler to an NL West team. Let's just hope the trend sticks with Trevor Hoffman blowing saves rather than karma evening out. Chat at Brew Crew Ball with cheeseheads.

Scoreboard Watch

Atlanta (2.0 GB):

vs Florida: Josh Johnson (15-5) vs Tim Hudson (2-1). Ricky Nolasco (12-9) vs. Javier Vazquez (15-9)

vs. Washington: Garrett Mock (3-10) vs. Tommy Hanson (11-4).

San Francisco (5 GB): Goodbye.

Florida (5.5 GB): Goodbye

Milwaukee Brewers (77-79, L1, 3rd, 13 GB)

Tuesday-Thursday : 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: B

Milwaukee's lineup has been quite stable this season, especially once adding Felipe Lopez. Rookie Alcides Escobar has been taking ABs from JJ Hardy, and Casey McGehee has taken over as the full time third baseman. The other five have been starters all year. The lineup exceptionally strong, coming in 3rd in the NL in both SLG and wOBA, 4th in OBP. Their average is 6th best, a pinch better than Colorado, but they strike out more than any team who plays Spring Training outside of Tucson. Milwaukee has also scored the fourth most runs in the National League this season.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA	OPS+
Felipe Lopez - 2B	.310	9	55	.381	.431	.356	111
Corey Hart - RF	.260	12	48	.335	.419	.331	98
Ryan Braun - LF	.316	30	107	.383	.540	.399	141
Prince Fielder - 1B	.297	43	137	.406	.596	.415	161
Casey McGehee - 3B	.304	15	64	.364	.503	.369	126
Mike Cameron - CF	.249	23	68	.342	.451	.344	107
Alcides Escobar - SS	.301	1	11	.324	.379	.307	85
Jason Kendall - C	.240	1	34	.331	.296	.287	67

The Brew's lineup is somewhat similar to St. Louis' in that there are two truly elite hitters in the middle of the lineup (Fielder and Braun). Unlike St. Louis, it's not just The Big Two and the Averages. There are other above average hitters, including Lopez (who has been even better with Milwaukee than Arizona), McGehee and Cameron. Corey Hart is about league average, rookie Alcides Escobar is holding his own above replacement level, but Jason Kendall could be replaced offensively with Sal Fasano at no loss whatsoever.

The bench currently constitutes the sitting place for infielders JJ Hardy (.229, 11, 47), Craig Counsell (.280, 4, 37) and Mat Gamel (.236, 5, 19). Four outfielders tend to hang out in the dugout most of the game as well, including Frank Catalanotto (.278, 1, 9), Jason Bourgeois (.200, 1, 3), Corey Patterson (1-for-10) and Jody Gerut (.241, 5, 20). Milwaukee is the first team the Rockies have seen since rosters expanded to carry just one backup catcher: Mike Rivera (.227, 2, 14). Bill Hall was traded to Seattle for a minor league pitcher last week. That leaves a bench void of a real threat.

Follow the jump for scouting reports on the Brewers' arms, defense, as well as the pitching matchups, injuries and hot/cold players.

The Arms: F

Milwaukee has had only one full-time starting pitcher (Yovani Gallardo) manage to keep his ERA below 5.00, and he has been shut down for the season. That's an eye-opening statistic, especially given their very offensive neutral home ballpark. In fact, it is so bad that they rank as Fangraphs' worst MLB rotation and second worst pitching staff. Manny Corpas accrued more WAR this season than their third best starter, and even Gallardo's season would place him fifth on the Rockies roster. How many more ways can I say suck?

At least Trevor Hoffman has been solid. The veteran has posted three consecutive months with an ERA under 2.00, this in a season where he didn't allow his first run until June 14.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Trevor Hoffman	2-2	52	0	0	0	36	3	51.0	34	10	10	2	11	46	1.76	0.88

The right-handed relievers include John Axford (3.2 IP, 2.45 ERA), Mike Burns (73 ERA+), Todd Coffey (143), Seth McClung (83), Chris Smith (137), Claudio Vargas (102), Carlos Villanueva (80) and David Weathers (100). Mitch Stetter (114) is the only lefty in the pantry, but he's a good one. Yovani Gallardo is technically active, but he has been shut down for the season.

The D: C

The Brewers 92 errors are very middle-of-the-pack, and their UZR/150 is just a pinch better than average at 1.1. Their Fangraphs value is 10th in MLB, but their stress on offense in the latter part of the season hurts their defense. McGehee is a big defensive downgrade on Bill Hall, as is Escobar on JJ Hardy. Braun and Hart are both defensive liabilities, though the outfield is somewhat balanced by a flashy and effective Mike Cameron. Believe it or not, Prince Fielder managed to be an average defensive first baseman, and Felipe Lopez is solid.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Chris Narveson	2-0	19	3	0	0	0	0	37.2	37	16	16	7	12	37	3.82	1.30

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	15-12	36	31	2	1	0	0	206.0	204	98	91	15	74	111	3.98	1.35

Hardcore Rockies' fans know the name Chris Narveson. He was acquired from St. Louis as part of the Larry Walker trade, essentially also meaning he played a part in bringing Dexter Fowler to Colorado. The Colorado native was a second round pick by the Cards in 2000, but his homecoming was short. He didn't throw a single pitch in the minors for the Rockies before being traded with Charles Johnson for Byung-Hyun Kim in March 2005. Brew Crew Ball featured him two weeks ago. The 27-year-old lefty has pretty average stuff but has managed to allow just 4 runs in his three starts this season, so he's more formidable than, say, Pat Misch. He'll be a bit like Edward Mujica though, given he has been in the bullpen most of the year and hasn't stretched out past 5.0 innings or 86 pitchers. Marquis, if you want to start another playoff game in your career, you better win this game. Continued suckitude could result in his September benching in following years even if he's pitching well. Get it done, Jason. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Wednesday, September 30, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jeff Suppan	7-11	28	28	0	0	0	0	153.2	188	97	86	23	72	76	5.04	1.69

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	9-8	32	29	1	0	0	0	169.2	194	90	81	15	41	123	4.30	1.39

Jeff Suppan has been a giant disappointment for Milwaukee. Then again, that's what you get for putting so much stock in a couple playoff starts in deciding value for contract. His biggest issue with that abominable K/BB rate, his worst in 13 seasons. He also serves up plenty of home runs, only has one positive pitch (change-up) and he has the second-worst fastball of any NL pitcher with over 100 IP. He served up 12 hits and 7 ER in his last start. FIP and tRA suggest he has been very lucky this season to have an ERA as low as 5.04. We should crush this guy. Jason Hammel is quietly second on the Rockies in WAR among starters, and he has either pitched 6.0+ IP or allowed 3 or less runs in 10 of 11 starts. The Rockies lost his last start, only the second HomeHammel start Colorado has lost since May 14, and we all know this last one wasn't his fault. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Thursday, October 1, 1:10 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Manny Parra	11-10	26	26	0	0	0	0	137.1	173	103	94	19	72	111	6.16	1.78

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Aaron Cook	10-6	27	26	1	1	0	0	150.0	171	75	72	18	46	76	4.32	1.45

Remember when I said Jeff Suppan had the NL's 2nd worst fastball according to Fangraphs? Well, Manny Parra has the worst, even though it comes in the low 90's from the left side. He returns for his second start after being sidelined with a neck injury - in his first, he held Philly to 1 run on 4 hits in 7 IP. In terms of the broad spectrum, he has slightly better peripherals than Suppan, and FIP and tRA suggest he's better than his ERA states. In addition, he's left-handed. Cue the thunder. Aaron Cook was fantastic in his last start Friday. This will be his last chance to prove he should be in the Rockies' playoff rotation, so let's see that sinker sink. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Prince Fielder has at least one RBI in 7 of 9 games and has 7 dingers this month. Casey McGahee has four himself, part of 24 September RBIs. Ryan Braun and Felipe Lopez have hit over .300 this month, with Jody Gerut a hit away from the threshold. Trevor Hoffman has pitched seven consecutive scoreless appearances, allowing only one baserunner in that span. He accrued six saves and a win in those seven outings.

Mike Cameron is just 15-for-his-last-77, while Jason Kendall, Craig Counsell and JJ Hardy hover around the Mendoza line in the season's final month.

RHP David Riske missed the entire season with an elbow injury. RHP Mark DiFelice (shoulder - 9/14) and 2B Rickie Weeks (wrist - 5/18) are also on the 60-day disabled list.

Poll

Can Milwaukee help us?

Yeah...if by help us you mean blow the wild card lead by Friday by getting swept

17 votes

Not at all. The Rockies run cold against a couple lefties, the Brewers pound our pitchers and the Rox lose the series

18 votes

A bit. Winning the series keeps Colorado in the driver's seat, regardless of what Atlanta does

113 votes

Rockies fans that don't own Brewers T-shirts from 2007 rush to get them Friday after Milwaukee allows the Rox to sweep them.

74 votes

222 votes | Poll has closed

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:23:27 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Chris Narveson smiles after being covered in shaving cream following Wednesday's game.

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Some things to read while standing out in a crowd.

Chris Narveson made quite a statement last night, shutting down a Cubs offense that had scored 13 runs in the first two innings of the previous two games. He also struck out ten Cub batters in his 5.2 innings of work, earning some praise from Seth McClung. Here are some notes on his achievements:

Narveson became just the 15th pitcher in major league history (and the first Brewer) to strike out at least ten batters while throwing 70 pitches or less.
He was the first Brewer rookie to record ten strikeouts in a game since Steve Woodard in 1998.
He was the first lefthanded Brewer rookie to accomplish the feat since Angel Miranda in 1992.

Jon Heyman says Ken Macha is probably safe, but doesn't think the Brewers will retain interim pitching coach Chris Bosio this offseason. If I were GM, the opposite would be true.

Are you upset enough with Doug Melvin to call for his firing, but bobble-obsessed enough to want his bobblehead anyway? Then Fire Doug Melvin has a contest for you.

Mike Cameron is only a few weeks away from becoming a free agent, but what will the market look like for him? The Chicago Tribune is reporting that the Cubs might be interested in his services. Of course, he's also expressed willingness to "make a sacrifice" to return to Milwaukee. Circling the Bases ranked Cameron #21 among this off season's potential free agents.

The Brewers are down to four remaining home games, and will spend the weekend trying to keep the Phillies from clinching the NL East. Ken Macha said he won't stick around to watch the celebration, should the Phillies clinch this weekend.

If you're hoping to see Mat Gamel one last time this weekend, you'll probably need to go to all four games to have a chance. Gamel is considering playing in Puerto Rico this winter to get some of the ABs he's missed while Ken Macha has allowed him to rot on the bench.

Jason Kendall may not lead the league in HBP this season but his plunks are gritty, difficult ones: Plunk Everyone calculated the HBP difficulty of players who have been hit by ten pitches this season, and Kendall ranks second in that stat.

In the minors:

The Brewers went 2-0-1 in their first three instructional league contests in Arizona. Adam McCalvy has the full roster, which includes most of this season's high draft picks and many of the top talents from Rookie and A-ball. (FanShot)
Eric Arnett doesn't sound too excited about instructional league, but at least his "main man EV" is there with him.
The Hardball Times named Brett Lawrie the top hitting prospect in the Midwest League this season, saying he has "the quickest wrists in the minor leagues, and some of the best raw power that the Midwest League has to offer."
Jeremy Jeffress, who celebrated his 22nd birthday earlier this week (hopefully not with a bag of pot), is reportedly in tremendous spirits and looking forward to the 2010 season. He'll be eligible to return from suspension sometime in May, but would face a lifetime ban with one more positive test.

On power rankings:

Baseball Digest Daily moved the Brewers up two spots to #17, but also noted that they have baseball's toughest remaining schedule.
MLB FanHouse moved the Brewers up two spots to #18.

If you're looking for some new thoughts to ponder today, Royals farmhand Chris "Disco" Hayes would like you to reconsider some conventional wisdom on defensive realignment.

On this day in 1999, former Brewer Bill Spiers was attacked by a fan at County Stadium in one of the uglier incidents in Brewer history. Spiers was able to remain in the game, and the attacker was charged with two counts of assault.

Happy birthday today to Chris George, who appeared in two games for the 1991 Brewers and turns 43.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some weird Muppet moments. (h/t Daily Drink)

Drink up.

Shark Homers, But Cubs Lose To Brewers; Milton Bradley "Apologizes"

Al — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 12:51:05 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Jeff Samardzija congratulated after his home run. He pitched well; perhaps there is hope for him for 2010.

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The CSN production crew showed, at one point during last night's telecast, video pointing out the differences in Jeff Samardzija's motion in his first, disastrous, start on August 12, and last night. Back in August he wasn't bringing the ball fully back, more or less "pushing" it to the plate; last night he had more of a full extension, hiding the ball behind his back briefly before delivery. The results were better; he gave up only five hits and a walk in five innings and threw 54 strikes in 82 pitches. He had good velocity (hitting 97 on the CSN and stadium speed pitch meters) and his breaking ball looked better; the lack of a good breaking pitch has been one of the biggest criticisms of Samardzija becoming a solid major league pitcher.

Unfortunately, two of those hits were home runs; the one by Prince Fielder came with a man on base and the homer Shark allowed to Jody Gerut was the difference in a 3-2 Cubs loss to the Brewers that reduced their elimination number to 4.

There's no shame in giving up a home run to Fielder; Samardzija became the 39th different pitcher to allow one to him this year. Gerut? Not so much, although the Chicago-area native has had a good September (.327/.377/.551, with 3 HR in 49 AB, two of the HR off Cubs pitching) in an attempt to let baseball people know that he'd like a job in 2010.

Meanwhile, Samardzija's HR cut the deficit to 2-1 and Bobby Scales' RBI double in the 7th made it 3-2 after Gerut's HR. But once again, the Cubs could not get a runner home from scoring position with less than two out; Scales did make it to third but Felipe Lopez made a nice catch of a floater that Ryan Theriot nearly got into right field, and that was the end of the Cubs' best chance to tie the game. Credit also must be given to Brewers' journeyman starter Chris Narveson, who struck out ten.

Unfortunately, the Milton Bradley merry-go-round continues for another day; yesterday he issued an apology for his recent actions in a written statement, which read:

"I chose Chicago as a free agent," Bradley said in a statement, "because I wanted to be part of finally bringing a championship to Cubs fans. I expected to have a great season and I am deeply disappointed by my performance and the team's struggles. I played every game with everything that I had and wanted to desperately win.

"My frustration and disappointment boiled over and I said and did certain things that I regret," he said. "In hindsight, I wish that I had handled certain things differently and I apologize for those things that did not work out for the better.

"The air has been cleared," he said, "and we all want to move on and look forward to better days."

Wow. There's so much wrong with that statement that I can't even really begin to dissect it, except for this: it's yet another example of the 21st Century Celebrity Apology, which is vetted by a lawyer and carefully crafted to say nothing while appearing to apologize. Look at what he actually apologized for:

I apologize for those things that did not work out for the better.

What on Earth does that mean? No specifics, no people mentioned, no one specifically apologized to? All of a sudden "the air has been cleared"? I'm tired of seeing these sorts of apologies, which basically boil down to "I'm sorry you caught me being an idiot, please forgive me so I can keep making these enormous sums of money."

Here's what a real Milton Bradley apology should have looked like:

I truly did want to become a Chicago Cub to bring the team, the organization and the best fans in baseball the championship they have longed for, for over a century. My performance was beneath my own expectations for myself and I wish I had done better on the field and the team had won more games and we were headed to the playoffs.

Recently, I said some things to the Daily Herald's Bruce Miles that were said in anger and frustration and I want to apologize to those I offended.

I apologize to my teammates. I said I worked "harder" than anyone on the team. This is not true. Every single member of the Cubs works hard to better his performance and win, and I don't want them to think I didn't appreciate them as teammates. I am sorry.

I apologize to Jim Hendry. He put his faith in me by investing $30 million of the team's money for me to perform, and I let him down.

I apologize to the entire Cubs organization. I told Bruce Miles it wasn't a positive environment, and that they haven't won for 100 years because of "negativity". That certainly is not true of all the dedicated people on the coaching staff, the scouting staff, and the rest of the people who work hard every day in the office. They all want to win. I apologize to each and every one of them.

I apologize to the media. I'm a private person and sometimes I don't react well to some of the questions you ask. But that doesn't mean, as I told Bruce Miles, that you are "bashing" me. I know you have a job to do, just as I do. I am sorry.

I apologize to all Cubs fans. I wanted to win for you very badly, but I failed and because I was upset at myself, I took it out on you. There were a few bad fans who made nasty and uncalled-for remarks to me, but I don't want you to think that I believe you are all that way. I am sorry.

Now that would be a real apology and if Milton -- or, for that matter, any athete or celebrity caught doing wrong -- would issue such an apology, I think people would go a long way toward forgiving him.

But the "apology" he did issue? Nothing but cover-my-butt. The Cubs may have to eat a significant amount of Bradley's contract to move him, or possibly even release him and pay off the entire deal. It will be an expensive lesson learned for Jim Hendry -- who should have seen this coming -- and the organization as they move into the Tom Ricketts era.