SB Nation - Jarrett Hoffpauir

What the Cardinals can take from the Yankees, besides the luxury tax

DanUpBaby — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:06:53 -0000

First, some briefs on yesterday's roster moves:

It's interesting to see the Brad Thompson perception gap—the RotoWorld box in the sidebar thinks he'll have no problem finding a job, even as a fifth starter; the Baseball Primer thread is remarkably positive, for BTF. But I think the average VEBer wrote off the artist occasionally known as WonderBrad a long time ago.

I'll always think of him as a better pitcher than he probably was and is; I'm as susceptible as anybody else to overvaluing a player when he gets off to a good start, and there were moments there in 2005 (it seems like it's been longer) where his weird sinker seemed like the makings of a uniquely valuable short reliever. But I'm hard-pressed to think of any team that's strapped enough for choice to give him a clear shot as a fifth starter coming off a year with a K/9 of 3.8.

Jarrett Hoffpauir leaves the 40 man roster—and, though this wasn't the Cardinals' intent, the organization—a victim of circumstance; without the Julio Lugo deal he might come into 2010 as the Cardinals' best free choice for Skip Schumaker's equally awkward right-handed caddy, but Lugo has a name and at least theoretically plays short. It's tough luck for the Cardinals; finding purchase on a big league roster is hard for backup infielders who can't play shortstop, but Hoffpauir, with his occasionally impressive bat and his consistently impressive BB:K ratio, has one more definable skill than most of these guys. (Being a Cardinals farmhand is apparently also a path to gainful MLB employment for these guys—Edgar Gonzalez and the poor man's Jarrett Hoffpauir, Mike McCoy, both saw big league time this year.)

In 2010 he would have had Lugo on one side and Daniel Descalso, who somehow failed to receive regular playing time in his 2009 AAA stint, on the other, though, so maybe it's best he's gone to an organization without a veteran playing for free and a prospect at second. (Which makes it even weirder that Joe Thurston didn't get the Brad Thompson treatment—hopefully he'll spend his Memphis summer working on his footwork rounding second base, not standing next to it.)

With that out of the way, the big news: the Yankees have finally beaten the Curse of Clay Bellinger. It was a tough road, but I can only hope that they have enough footage of Jimmy Fallon running out onto the field to properly commemorate those long years in Fever Pitch 2. What did these Yankees do that the Cardinals can emulate, multi-billion dollar payroll aside?

1. Make the Free Agent deals count. The list of Yankees busts in the years between 2000 and 2009 is comical both quantitatively and qualitatitively—these guys signed Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, and Kei Igawa to deals totaling $106 million. The spending binge prior to 2009 will justifiably get a lot of attention as the difference-maker between this club and the ones that preceded it, but this time around Brian Cashman was at least forward-thinking enough to sign players who have established track records of performing in a way that resembles their enormous contracts.

This hasn't been true of the Cardinals' last three pitching free agents—Kyle Lohse was signed at the absolute peak of his value, for a dollar value that seems blissfully disconnected from the rest of his body of work. The Joel Pineiro and Mark Mulder contracts, each two years, $13 million, were both affordable risks, and one of them worked out better than the Cardinals could possibly have imagined, but they were an extremely speculative way to spend $26 million; there wasn't much in their recent history to suggest they were multi-million dollar pitchers, of a separate species from recent gambles like John Smoltz or even the first appearances of Lohse and Pineiro.

Matt Holliday is, for all his Boras-sized ambitions, a guy who will come into the first year of his contract almost certain to play up to it. He's durable, he's still within sight of his peak years, and he's a consistently excellent hitter with a broad base of skills. Which combines with makes Joe Strauss's recent, inexplicably phrased chat insinuations an interesting, if not instructive, topic of discussion:

Chairman Bill DeWitt recently denied that the club has made Holliday an offer; however, there are suggestions that the Cardinals discussed a 6-year, $96 million framework with Holliday's agent, Scott Boras.

I'll be honest: I have no idea what "suggestions" means when it is both unsourced and right after an official club denial but also accompanied by an extremely specific contract "framework." No idea whatsoever. But assuming that Joe Strauss is not the one suggesting this, or Joe Strauss's barber, this seems like a fine deal for a team that, as a recent fanshot noticed, is filled with a ton of decent players. $16 million could be parceled out to three or four basically average guys, hole-fillers, and probably earn more wins above that famous replacement player than Holliday himself. But this team doesn't need Reggie Sanders—it needs MV3.

An argument could be made that these big free agent contracts need to be seen as the reward for, and culmination of, years spent cultivating guys like Skip Schumaker and David Freese to negate the need for the Kyle Lohses. But at $96 million, instead of $180 million, I guess two out of three isn't so bad.

2. Develop an inconceivably long-lasting internal core. How are three of the Yankees' best players still holdovers from 1996? Asking the Cardinals to develop three to five borderline Hall of Famers over the course of the next three years is probably a little too much to ask, but it's nice to see the Cardinals progressing in this direction; Pujols and Wainwright were locked down early, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Colby Rasmus follow along the same path.

Losing Brett Wallace leaves them one future core player short, but I'm glad the Cardinals still have at least one in the system; winning 78 games in 2007 isn't far removed from having top prospects like Jimmy Journell and post-surgery Blake Hawksworth a few years earlier. Get here soon, Shelby Miller.

3. Look at all those young, successful relievers! The Cardinals made—and have continued to make—a good-faith effort at this with guys like Jason Motte and Chris Perez and Kyle McClellan. And since I am lost as you to the reasons for the enormous gap between Motte's PCL and MLB numbers, it's frustrating to see the Yankees' three fine young relievers, even if two of them had less than impressive postseasons.

Interesting, though, to see how the three came to be important parts in the Yankee pen—one should probably still be in the Yankee rotation, another was a minor league free agent and career starter.

Jays Claim Jarrett Hoffpauir

Tom Dakers — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:21:25 -0000

Here is the press release:

BLUE JAYS CLAIM HOFFPAUIR FROM CARDINALS

The TORONTO BLUE JAYS have claimed 2B JARRETT HOFFPAUIR (hoff-power) on waivers from the St. Louis Cardinals. To make room on the 40-man roster, LHP BILL MURPHY has been designated for assignment.

HOFFPAUIR, 26, split the 2009 season between St. Louis and Memphis of the Pacific Coast League. In eight games with the Cardinals, the 5-9, 190 lb. infielder hit .250 (3-12) with two doubles and two RBI. The Natchez, Mississippi native was the Cardinals 6th round selection in 2004 First Year Player Draft. In 108 games with Memphis last season he batted .291 with 22 doubles, 14 home runs and drove in 53 runs.

Tom again, not a big deal move, just one of the many minor moves that happen in the off season. Jarrett has had a some good seasons in the minors and would give us some depth in the infield.

Put me in, coach

chuckb — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 06:47:06 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

#28 has to be penciled in the lineup every day from here on out. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Over the last 7 games, Colby Rasmus has started just 4. He has actually had the fortunate opportunity to pinch hit in 2 of the other 3 games and garnered a 2nd PA in last night’s game, finishing 2 for 2 on the night. Over the same 7 games, Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel have each started 5 times and Ryan Ludwick has started 6. When Rick Ankiel went on the DL in May, Rasmus assumed the everyday spot in CF. For the most part, this continued with Ludwick on the DL as well but Ludwick returned from the DL on May 29. Here are the players’ numbers from May 29 through July 2. (UZR is for the entire season.)

	PA	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	UZR
Ludwick	116	103	21	3	10	22	.204	.278	.330	2.0
Ankiel	118	111	25	3	7	26	.225	.271	.396	2.5
Duncan	105	92	20	1	12	26	.217	.305	.283	-2.5
Rasmus	99	98	32	3	0	15	.327	.327	.531	10.4

What’s wrong w/ this picture? Rasmus has the most hits and the fewest Ks and has the fewest PAs of the 4. His slugging % over the month-plus is nearly Ludwick’s and Duncan’s respective OPSes. Now, I’m a little disappointed and frustrated by the fact that he hasn’t walked since May 25 but his OPS is still over .850 over the time period. If the other 3 were hitting, there would be more reason to be concerned about Rasmus’s lack of walks but considering the OPS difference between he and #2 – Ankiel (191 points!) – harping on the lack of walks seems to be nitpicking. Rasmus though is a liability defensively, right? Wrong. He’s the best we’ve got and it’s not even close …AND he plays the toughest, and most important, of the 3 defensive positions. I understand that the guy needs a day off every now and then, but there is absolutely no reason for him NOT to be in the starting lineup every day. Sit him against lefties? Why? So Ankiel and Duncan can play in his stead? Look at the numbers? They’re both lefties as well who struggle against southpaws. Exactly what do we gain by sitting him? There’s no excuse or justification for him not to be in the lineup every day. What more needs to be said?

Good article over at fangraphs re: Pineiro’s metamorphosis this season. Is it sustainable? The article says "yes." It’s meaningful b/c Pineiro will be a free agent at the end of the season. I need to see more in order to be convinced but he’s been fantastic, by and large.

I was glad to see Jarrett Hoffpauir’s promotion and his success last night. Hoffpauir’s always been one of my pets – a guy I always wanted to see get a chance and thought he deserved more than he’s gotten. I even wrote a thread about him about a year and a half ago comparing his minor league numbers to Dustin Pedroia’s. Just to be clear, I never said he’d be the same as Pedroia, just that he had some of the same skills and, though it took him longer to succeed at every level than it did Pedroia, I thought he had a chance to become a solid big leaguer. I’ve since tempered my optimism and he may never get another major league hit, but his walk and hit last night were huge (WPA = .469; Albert’s = .459) and I’m happy for him. Hoffpauir:chuckb::Blake Hawksworth:DanUp.

Finally, I guess I should offer a bit of an explanation for my bizarre post last Sunday. I was clearly responding to the chatter that we were involved in talks for Matt Holliday but I was also preparing to leave on vacation Sunday morning. I put together that thread Saturday morning and never found out about the trade for DeRosa, which happened actually before my Holliday post went up, until Monday or Tuesday when I saw a snippet of someone playing LF for the Cards and wearing number 7. Joe Mather? Nope, he’s out for the year. WTF? Who is this masked man and please, God, don’t let it be Matt Holliday! Anyway, we likely paid a steep price for DeRosa. He’ll help, as I said last Sunday, and if trades are measured by what they do THIS SEASON, we’ll win. It seems, however, that we gave up Chris Perez and either Francisco Samuel or Jess Todd for DeRosa. That ain’t cheap! DeRosa’s probably a type-B free agent at the end of the year so he’s worth a supplemental draft pick but I feel it’s likely that the 2 pitchers will provide more wins, and probably several more, over the next 5-7 years than DeRosa and that supplemental pick will for the Cards. That said, if DeRosa’s win and a half gets us into the playoffs, might it be worth it anyway?

There are many who see trades as zero-sum games – that one team wins the trade and the other, necessarily, loses. I don’t agree, simply b/c the two teams often have different goals – as we and the Indians do now. Ours is to win today while still maintaining the ability to win next year and beyond. Theirs is to win in the future. DeRosa may help us win the division or Wild Card this year and the 2 pitchers may help the Indians be successful in the future and then we would have both gotten what we wanted. Still, I’d have much rather given up only Perez.

One of the trades that people often use as a cautionary tale about making trade deadline deals is one made in 1987 when the Atlanta Braves traded starting pitcher Doyle Alexander to the Detroit Tigers for a pitching prospect named John Smoltz. Alexander, for most of his career, was an OK starting pitcher and Smoltz was a star for a Braves team that won about 74 division championships in a row. He’ll be a Hall of Famer, in all likelihood, and people often point to that trade as a bad one for the Tigers and a great one for the Braves. It clearly was a great one for the Braves, who weren’t going anywhere in 1987. However, Alexander had a 1.53 in 11 starts for the Tigers in 1987. His FIP was 3.20 in those 11 starts – 2nd only to his 1972 season in a 19 year career. Over those 11 starts and 88 IP, he was worth 3.9 wins. The Tigers finished 98-64 that season, defeating the Blue Jays by just 2 games in the AL East. It’s not too much of a stretch to say that Alexander’s acquisition was the difference. Though he didn’t pitch well in the ALCS and they lost to the eventual World Champion Twins, you would have to say that this trade was a winner for the Tigers as well. The Braves and the Tigers had different goals at the time and both came out winners in this trade. Get to the postseason and take your chances.

I think this trade will be measured in much the same way. If the Cards make it to the postseason, both sides will be winners in the trade. If we don’t, however, the Indians win and the Cards overpaid. Wouldn't it be interesting if the outcome of this trade wasn't determined by how DeRosa plays or how the 2 pitchers pitch for the Indians, but rather by how much Rasmus plays over the last 3 months? Hmmm....

It's okay to appreciate Chris Carpenter, but only since the Brewers lost

DanUpBaby — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 10:45:09 -0000

More photos » by Paul J. Bereswill - AP

I take great personal comfort in knowing that even the best athletes in the world are occasionally photographed in graceless positions.

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Any time Carpenter comes out and lets loose with his fragile arm in a losing effort it feels like one that got away, but sometimes they're just hit, repeatedly, where they ain't. Or in this case, hit where they is not in a position to quite make a play on a ball, and then deflected where they ain't.

It's hard to stomach when games turn on moments like that. I guess most 3-2 games do—even a three run homer is, to some degree, one bad pitch—but the botched double play, especially when it's combined with the wrong-headed pitcher deflection, fills me with a very particular kind of dread.

That said, this was yet another remarkable outing from Carpenter. At this point in the season he's thrown 66 innings, which is itself remarkable. He's got a 1.78 ERA, which is great. But I think the most emblematic number, of all his great ones, is this: he's averaging just under 12 pitches an inning. Four pitches per out. Even Joel Pineiro, who considers it a personal failure to get past 0-1 in either direction on any given hitter, averages 14 pitches an inning. The league average is up around 17.

There are pitchers who pitch with intensity; the sportswriter's favorite ace is the one who stomps and acts fiery, who intimidates. And there are other pitching "personalities" too; the pathetic fallacy works as well on people who don't talk and can't explain what they're doing as well as it does on trees and animals, and pitchers have been declared to work smugly, or calmly, and so on. To this closet of unsupported inferences I add my own: Carp pitches like somebody solving a Rubik's Cube for the thousandth time. He doesn't make mistakes, he doesn't get caught off guard, and he follows the pattern, and all the while he looks bored while he's doing it and unsurprised when it works out. When a hitter gets behind, and he usually does, and Carpenter puts him away, and he usually does, the pitch seems in hindsight to be the only logical choice. It's a marvel to watch.

It's amazing that he's pitching at all, after spending two years on duty as the team's official Symbol of What Might Have Been. Now I'm trying to appreciate that he's pitching amazingly.

I don't know who else has been watching Fangraphs's Skip Schumaker page for updates on his year-to-date defense, but an encouraging thing happened recently: for the first time all year, his UZR/150—a stat that shows defensive contribution as the runs saved (or not saved) per 150 games at the position—has pushed past the -20 mark. It's spent much of the year at -30, then dipped to -25 around the end of May. Now: -19.9. Small victories.

I don't mean to get ahead of myself. By UZR/150 Skip is still the worst defender to spend significant time at second since Jeff Kent (-18.3 in 2007) and Jose Vidro (-23.6 in 2006) at the very end of their careers. But combined with his recent offensive hot streak it means that, for the first time all year, Fangraphs considers him exactly as good as a replacement-level second baseman (hereafter Jarrett Hoffpauir.) 0.0 WAR; a clean slate.

Where does that number have to be for this experiment to be considered a success at the end of the season? In some loose ways it already is; for one thing, the other team's announcers, always a useful barometer of what baseball at large thinks about Your Team, have almost forgotten about him entirely out there. Rick Ankiel moving to the outfield? Still interesting. Khalil Greene's anxiety? Captivating. A guy with no pro experience moving to the infield? I'm not even sure they know it happened. So Schumaker is at least not so embarrassing out there as to arouse their suspicions.

But since we are concerned more with the Cardinals' success than their sense of propriety, the fair thing to ask, whenever you're ready to ask it—at the end of the season? Now?—is whether the Cardinals could have done better. The minor leagues are a pretty solid no, now that Schumaker is trending past replacement level. Hoffpauir seems like a useful hitter but is apparently a defensive non-entity, and top positional prospect Daniel Descalso, presently raking at AA Springfield, could not have been predicted then or relied upon now.

Adam Kennedy, the Cardinals' other option, is currently hoping nobody in the Oakland organization has found the splits feature on Baseball-Reference. After that big May—

Cardinals Fan A: Have you seen Adam Kennedy's line so far? Hoo boy.

Cardinals Fan B [painfully cheerful]: Yeah, it's hilarious, ha, ha.

Cardinals Fan A: I know, right? Ha, ha.

Cardinals Fan C: Hey, have you guys seen—

[Cardinals Fans A + B leave the room quietly, firmly]

—Kennedy's tailed off severely, but at this moment in time he is still hitting .298/.368/.474. But the hilarious thing, ha, ha, is that his defense has been awful this year, at -14.0 per 150 games—nearly as bad as Skip's. Right now Kennedy's provided one win above a replacement player, but he's doing it so uncharacteristically that it's a hard win to trust.

For me the main thing Schumaker will compete with, at the end of the season, is his own value as a trade chit. Turning outfield depth into a middle infielder is something baseball teams have done before, but it's rarely done so literally. But since I can't know what he would have brought in trade, my small-area hope is that Schumaker passes at least one of the more conventionally bad offense-first second basemen, a Dan Uggla or an Ian Kinsler, on the UZR anti-leaderboard before the year is out. If he does that, I'll consider the experiment a success.

As Future Redbirds noticed, the Cardinals appear to have closed in on Wagner Mateo, who is one of the top two or three Latin American talents in this year's non-draft. He's the 16 year-old center fielder, if you haven't yet kept them straight; this month-old Goold piece has a video and a somewhat reserved scouting report. (From the two videos I've seen his swing is nice and clean but won't exactly make you go all Roy Hobbs or Toe Nash on the kid.)

Meanwhile, in today's P-D, Goold has a paragraph targeted at allaying the fears of everyone who read about Luhnow's early draft hemming and hawing and have looked at the international signings with a degree of hesitation ever since:

Mozeliak said what the Cardinals spend in bonuses for international players is "completely independent" of how much they can spend to sign first-round pick Shelby Miller. The Cardinals selected the Texas high school righthander with the 19th pick, and though negotiations have been slow to develop, the Cardinals expect to pay over slot to sign the fireballer.

If that's true the whole thing's unreservedly great news; we may not know much about Wagner Mateo, but this is, if you will, like getting another first round pick without having to sign and then offer arbitration to Russ Springer—it really is. He seems more distant, because he's playing in an academy and he's so young, but given the worthlessness of high school statistics it's just as easy to scout Wagner Mateo as it is your local all-state shortstop. And if the international spending is separate from the draft bonuses, it's better to spend it on one player with first round talent and a matching price tag than it is to spread it out among fringier types.

The shaded part on the 2B/LF Venn Diagram

DanUpBaby — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 13:45:07 -0000

And with three swings Brian Barton comes charging to the head of the race for the honorable Coolbaugh Award, given to the king of Spring Training in honor of the late Mike Coolbaugh, who caused a minor uproar in the Up household when his furious 2002 spring was not rewarded with a spot on the opening day roster.

About those two home runs: Barton hasn't hit for serious power since he put a hole in the Carolina League as a 24-year-old, so they seem even less predictive than Spring Training stats normally are, but his goal isn't a tough one—he's got to get his slugging percentage over, what, .420? If he hits two home runs a month he'll be fine.

Of course, the big thing for him to do, if he wants to break camp with the Cardinals, is help Skip Schumaker with his infield defense. English majors pick up your highlighters–it's time for some La Russa Close Reading.

"Those two balls he missed are easily remedied," said Cardinals manager Tony La Russa. "Your first move has got to be in. He just needs to work on it. But he didn't put his head in the sand. He dives and makes a play. It's a great example of his toughness."

Which is to say, "He's still a second baseman, and he's going to be until he fields a ground ball and gets confused looking for the cut-off man." La Russa is taking this conversion seriously, and I'm glad he is; a trade aside, this is the one chance the Cardinals have to take the outfield surplus and apply it to the hole in the middle infield. If Skip's fielding .850 around May Day I'll be willing to see this stubbornness in a negative light, but in Spring Training La Russa can't be guilty of trying too hard to fit Schumaker into the round hole.

His caddy yesterday was Jarrett Hoffpauir, who is the Cardinals' practical replacement level for this experiment, and maybe the best-known quantity of all the second basemen-in-waiting. 26 this year, Hoffpauir spent 2007 putting himself on the prospect map with an .880 OPS between AA and AAA, and took himself off it with an unspectacular 2008.

He's a Short, Scrappy Hustler (alt. a Short, Hustling Scrapper) in the grand Ecksteinian tradition: a middling defender—scouts say average, stats, at least last season, say Schumaker—whose one tool is an incredible grasp of the strike zone. He's post-prime Eckstein without the shortstop defense, otherwise known as Aaron Miles, and if he makes the team it will be because the seas in front of him have parted, not because he's fought his way to the top. Watch him this spring—more importantly, watch the people in front of him.

Today (12:10, v. the Devil Rays) Adam Wainwright makes his spring debut. If Chris Carpenter comes north somehow Not Right, be it in terms of health or effectiveness, it will be too bad. If Wainwright struggles with either one heading into the regular season, it will be time to panic.