SB Nation - Johnny Cueto

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

Heroes of the Zeros: The Starting Rotation

Slyde — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:21:24 -0000

It's that time of the decade when people start creating lists of the best and worst whatevers of the past 10 years. I was going to do that too, but then I decided to make you guys do all of the work. So, over the next two weeks we will be voting on the players that we think deserve the title of All-Decade team member for the Cincinnati Reds. Each day, I'll present you with a new position, and you get to vote. While we do this, the running totals will be kept secret so that you will be surprised when we announce the final roster on December 31st. The maybe we can finally put to bed what might be the worst decade in Reds history.

We'll start with where it started to end, the starting rotation. The Reds haven't exactly been stocked with quality starting pitching during the decade, but you still have to figure out who the top 5 of the decade are. To qualify for the team, a pitcher must have spent at least 50% of his time with the Reds as a starter and he must have made at least 20 starts in a Reds uniform. The rest of the qualifications are up to you. I've listed the stats for the 23 pitchers that meet our minimum qualifications. The voting form is in this post after the jump.

Click header to sort table by column
	ERA+	FIP	GS	Years	G	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	HR	OPS
Jose Acevedo	78	5.17	54	2001-2004	68	1	0	16	21	.432	304.1	334	198	189	97	222	5.59	58	.830
Bronson Arroyo	113	4.47	136	2006-2009	136	8	3	53	50	.515	871.2	887	424	387	260	630	4.00	119	.755
Homer Bailey	81	4.92	37	2007-2009	37	0	0	12	13	.480	195.0	217	129	118	97	132	5.45	23	.803
Rob Bell	92	5.93	35	2000-2001	35	1	0	7	13	.350	184.2	176	112	105	90	145	5.12	41	.840
Brandon Claussen	85	4.96	57	2004-2006	57	0	0	15	27	.357	309.2	351	195	176	120	223	5.12	47	.824
Johnny Cueto	94	4.87	61	2008-2009	61	0	0	20	25	.444	345.1	350	191	177	129	290	4.61	53	.792
Lance Davis	97	4.66	20	2001	20	1	0	8	4	.667	106.1	124	60	56	34	53	4.74	12	.808
Ryan Dempster	66	5.27	35	2002-2003	37	1	0	8	12	.400	204.1	236	150	145	108	150	6.39	30	.856
Elmer Dessens	115	4.47	80	2000-2002	104	2	1	28	27	.509	530.1	564	246	232	148	306	3.94	66	.756
Osvaldo Fernandez	88	4.60	28	2000-2001	35	1	0	9	9	.500	159.0	172	95	93	64	71	5.26	14	.775
Aaron Harang	106	4.07	193	2003-2009	195	13	6	69	73	.486	1231.1	1288	606	572	315	1043	4.18	169	.767
Pete Harnisch	92	5.80	29	2000-2001	29	3	1	9	9	.500	166.1	181	105	94	63	88	5.09	32	.836
Jimmy Haynes	84	5.05	56	2002-2004	57	1	0	17	25	.405	306.0	354	188	172	145	183	5.06	38	.820
Luke Hudson	87	5.44	25	2002-2005	31	0	0	10	11	.476	139.0	124	83	76	81	98	4.92	18	.790
Cory Lidle	80	4.95	24	2004	24	3	1	7	10	.412	149.0	170	95	88	44	93	5.32	24	.832
Kyle Lohse	101	4.24	32	2006-2007	33	2	1	9	17	.346	194.2	213	109	99	52	131	4.58	23	.777
Eric Milton	77	5.40	66	2005-2007	66	0	0	16	27	.372	370.1	439	256	240	103	231	5.83	73	.850
Ramon Ortiz	80	5.66	30	2005	30	1	0	9	11	.450	171.1	206	110	102	51	96	5.36	34	.882
Steve Parris	98	5.10	33	2000	33	0	0	12	17	.414	192.2	227	109	103	71	117	4.81	30	.858
Elizardo Ramirez	75	5.30	26	2005-2007	31	0	0	4	14	.222	142.2	176	106	97	47	86	6.12	24	.876
Ron Villone	87	5.92	23	2000	35	2	0	10	10	.500	141.0	154	95	85	78	77	5.43	22	.871
Edinson Volquez	128	3.90	41	2008-2009	42	0	0	21	8	.724	245.2	201	107	94	125	253	3.44	20	.681
Paul Wilson	86	5.00	66	2003-2005	66	1	0	20	21	.488	396.2	450	231	215	130	240	4.88	60	.817

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/13/2009.

I will only be accepting your first vote, so don't bother trying to stuff the ballot box, you cheaters. I don't care how much you want Jimmy Haynes in this rotation Dan O'Brien, you only get one vote.

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

The Farmies, part 2

nycredsfan — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:00:28 -0000

No, it's the FarMIES...but they're all welcome anyway

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Welcome to day two of the Farmies. Yesterday brought us some major power, defense, and rising prospects. Today we celebrate the real cream of the crop of the Reds minor league system.

Comeback Player of the Year

Homer Bailey

Let's review:

2007-Bailey makes his debut to delirious fan support and is anointed the Great Hope. He proceeds to struggle a bit the rest of the year.

2008-He's beaten out for a rotation spot by Johnny Cueto and has a very rough year between AAA and the bigs. In the offseason he almost gets traded straight up for Jermaine Dye.

2009-He learns a bit of humility, a bit of control, and the split-finger and dominates AAA. He comes up to Cincinnati and has a positively Arroyo-like end to the season. His last 9 starts he goes 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA, striking out 53 in 58 innings and holding opponents to a .631 OPS against.

Last offseason many had given up on him. As of this minute he might be our second best starter. Welcome, GoodHomer. We hope you're here to stay.

Honorable Mention:

This goes to Justin Lehr for two reasons: 1) He was pitching in Korea last year, and this year posted a 2.51 ERA and .89 WHIP in 75 AAA innings, and 2) Teaching Homer the splitter. Big ups, Justin. I wish you the best of luck, just not with the Cincinnati Reds.

2010 Breakout Candidate

Devin Mesoraco

Wait a minute, you say. How do you give it to a guy who hit .228 in high-A this season? Here's why: His BB rate, LD% and ISO all improved dramatically, and his average was weighed down by a .276 BABIP despite the high line drive rate. AND he was only 20/21 playing in the FSL, which makes everyone not named Jay Bruce look bad the first time round. Minorleaguesplits.com's luck factor says he should've put up a line of .279/.356/.452. I'd take that from my catcher. Most importantly, perhaps, his defense behind the plate is reported to be much improved. Next year will be his 3^rd full pro season, and I could see him cruising through Carolina and being a late season call-up to AAA, with people debating whether to make him or Ramon Hernandez the starter in 2011.

Honorable Mention:

Juan Duran-Next year you can start to judge him by his stats, which I'm guessing will be much better.

Minor League Manager of the Year

Rick Sweet

Last year's IL manager of the year is this year's RR Manager of the Year. I can't imagine how hard it is to manage a AAA team with so much personnel change during a season, but Sweet kept the Bats rolling all year to an 84-58 record and the organization's only playoff berth. He owns a 387-330 record in 5 seasons as the Bats manager. The Reds record over that span is 377-433. Draw your own conclusions.

Honorable Mention

Joe Ayrault-Do you have any idea which team he manages? Didn't think so. His team was terrible, but I thought he deserved a little love anyway. His Wikipedia page has a couple fun facts.

Minor League Hitter of the Year

Juan Francisco

.296/.328/.523, 29 HR, 32 doubles, 93 RBI. Would you take that line from your third baseman? How about your left fielder? That's the line El Nino Destructor put up over two levels (AA-AAA) this season. You can talk all you want about walks and strikeouts, E.N.D. won't listen. He crushed AA as a 21 year old, turned 22, decided he was a man amongst boys, and proceeded to own AAA. Then, when called up to the big club in September, as the team's youngest player (2 months younger than Bruce), he put up an OPS of 1.139 in 25 plate appearances. In that short time he was worth .5 WAR, which was more than Willy Taveras, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Rosales, Darnell McDonald, and Drew Sutton, and equaled the value of Jerry Hairston Jr. and Ramon Hernandez......ROAR.

(Thanks to BubbaFan for the amazingly awesome pic)

Honorable Mention:

Always a bridesmaid but never a bride, Chris Heisey had this award wrapped up in late June, scuffled a bit in AAA, but still put together a good campaign. He was pipped at the post by Francisco's August and September. Final line-.319/.386/.523

Todd Frazier had another very, very solid season. If you like walks (I gaze into their eyes at night) it was tempting to give him this award. Final line-.292/.353/.474

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Travis Wood

This one's a no brainer. Over two levels (AA-AAA) Wood posted a 13-5 record. He must be good right? In addition to the all-important W-L record, Wood sported a 7.15 K/9 rate and lowered his BB/9 rate to 2.86, by far his best rate in 4 professional seasons. These two solid peripherals, combined with a low BABIP, meant that his WHIP was a sparkling 1.04. Oh, and he only gave up 6 homers all year in 176 IP. Yes, but wasn't he supported by good defenses in Carolina and Louisville? Perhaps, but his FIP was a very solid 3.28. Did I mention the kid is only 22? Stop your arguing, the kid can pitch.

Honorable Mention:

Zach (sniff, sniff) Stewart

Justin Lehr had a great year in Louisville, and taught Homer that splitter. If he had any prospect value he'd be on stage crying and thanking his agent right now.

That's all, folks. Thanks for joining us tonight, don't forget to tip your waiters, and we'll see you again next year.

Cueto goes to 11! Reds win, 8-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:40:09 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. The Irresistable Force went 2-3 with a double, a home run, three RBI, a run scored, and two walks. Dude's good.

Key Plays

Johnny Cueto got off to a rough start. He walked Andrew McCutchen, then gave up a run-scoring double to Andy LaRoche. It seems like it's been awhile since we've harped on all the first inning runs the Reds have given up. They gave up a lot.
In the second inning, the Reds used the same walk-double strategy to even the game. Scott Rolen drew the walk, and Darnell McDonald hit the double. Walks to Ramon Hernandez and Drew Stubbs loaded the bases, but Paul Janish flew out to end the inning.
Scott Rolen homered in the third. Know what? I haven't really missed Edwin since we traded him.
McDonald led off the fourth inning with a single, and went to third on Ramon Hernandez's single. Then he scored on a passed ball. After Cueto and Stubbs made outs, Paul Janish walked, and he and Hernandez scored on Joey Votto's double. Votto was thrown out trying to stretch the hit into a triple.
Cueto ran into trouble in the sixth inning. He gave up a leadoff single to Garrett Jones, and a walk to Brandon Moss one out later. Then Delwyn Young hit a three run homer to bring the Pirates within one run.
The Pirates hadn't counted on El Nino Destructor, however. In the bottom of the sixth, Ramon Hernandez doubled to lead off, and Willy Taveras came in to run for him. Then Juan Francisco hit a double to right field and Taveras scored. ROAR! Francisco then scored on successive sacrifices by Stubbs and Janish. ROAR!
Votto homered in the eighth inning. Such a giver.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Brandon Phillips had been 0-16 before singling in the eighth. If he gets five RBI tomorrow, he'll finish with 100 on the season.
Francisco Cordero pitched a scoreless ninth, but it was not a save situation. He's still one save shy of 40 for the season.
Joey Votto's 25th home run gave him a career high.
With the win, Johnny Cueto joins fellow starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, and Justin Lehr to not have a losing record.
Since both the Brewers and Reds won, the Reds have clinched fourth place in the NL Central.

Final - 10.3.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	6	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	1	X	8	11	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (11 - 11) LP: Zach Duke (11 - 16)

Complete Coverage >

You may think it's sad to be excited about 4th place, but that's because your team's not tied for it. Reds win 10-4

Slyde — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 13:45:10 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

How you doin'?

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A quick recap of last night's events:

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. 3 for 4 with 3 doubles, 3 runs scored, and an RBI. He's now batting .308/.404/.535 on the season.

Other Notes

Scott Rolen also had 3 hits including 2 doubles. He scored 2 runs and drove in 3. The 3 thru 6 hitters were a combined 9 for 18 with 6 runs and 6 RBI on the night.
Brandon Phillips drove in 2 runs. He now has 92 RBI on the season, just 2 less than his career high that he set in 2007.
Phillips also stole his 25th base of the season in this game. He is now tied with Willy Taveras for the team lead in that category. The last Reds player to lead the team in both RBI and SB was Aaron Boone in 2002 with 87 RBI and 32 SB.
The Reds had 7 doubles in the game, the most since April 28, 2004. Only 4 times in the last 55 years have they had more than 7 doubles in a game.
With the win and the Astros loss, the Reds are now in a tie for 4th place. They move to 4 games behind the 3rd place Brewers who were beaten by the Cubs.
With his 10th win on the season, Johnny Cueto became the youngest Reds 10-game winner since Scott Williamson won 12 games in 1999 at the age of 23, the same age as Cueto.
The Reds have won 6 in a row against the Pirates, the longest winning streak against Pittsburgh since 1997.

via FanGraphs

Monday's Quick Hits: Cubs, Reds, Trevor Hoffman, and more Milton Bradley

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 21:26:54 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

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Thought I compile some links for you guys to enjoy this Monday afternoon:

The city of Naples is reportedly making a strong push to bring the Cubs to Naples for Spring Training. The Cubs have played in Arizona since 1952, and they draw the biggest crowds every year. The Cubs' lease runs through 2016, but they can opt out in 2012 for 4.2 million dollars. The Cubs would benefit from a state of the art facility, but relocating would be incredibly expensive. They use the facility year round, with extended spring training and their rookie team operating it once the team leaves at the end of March.
Ted Keith of SI.com has a story on the best and worst free agent signings from the 2008-2009 offseason. If you guessed Milton Bradley as the worst signing, you were correct. Keith definitely did his homework, as usual, and it was a very interesting read. Let me know what you think of his rankings for the best signings.
John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer spoke with Reds GM Walk Jocketty who doesn't expect his team to be big players in the market this offseason. Jocketty expects to configure his team with in-house options. If young Reds players Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto can put up big numbers, they could probably put up a respectable season with some of the veterans locked up through 2010. The Reds would benefit from bringing in a shortstop, either through trade or free agency.
The Brewers' signing of Trevor Hoffman is one of the best signings from last offseason. Hoffman has a 1.88 ERA with 34 saves in 49 games this season, and is well respected in the clubhouse. Brewers GM Doug Melvin said he plans to talk with Hoffman about a contract before the exclusive negotiating rights window expires.
I've been thinking a lot today about potential fits for Milton Bradley. Bradley fit in well in Texas, but financial issues along with a crowded outfield will prevent that from happening. Bradley needs to go somewhere that is media-friendly, which means you can rule out New York, Boston, and Los Angeles. The Cubs would have to eat almost his entire salary, but they could contact Florida about a possible Milton Bradley-for-Jeremy Hermida swap. Hermida, who is arbitration eligible, has been somewhat of a disappointment in his early career. Throwing him in the right field mix against Jake Fox, Reed Johnson, and possibly Tyler Colvin could salvage some of the potential that once followed him.

Just Like They Drew It Up. Reds Win 7-5 to Break 5-game Losing Streak.

Slyde — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 21:01:24 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Yer a....GULP....mmmmmm.

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Drew Sutton. Sutton only saw three pitches all day, but that was enough as his 2-run pinch hit double in the 9th inning was the difference for the winning squad.

Key Plays

The story of the day today was base runners, as in the Reds had 21 of them when you add up the 10 hits, 8 walks, and 3 errors by the Cubs. Thankfully, they managed to get some hits today with runners on base, going 5 for 13 with runners in scoring position.

The Reds put their first two runs on the board due to the Cubs fielding incompetence. Three errors in the 3rd inning allowed the Reds to load up the bases and score a run before Brandon Phillips singled in a second run to put the team up 2-0.
The Reds added 3 more runs in the 4th inning after Adam Rosales and Drew Stubbs singles put runners at 1st and 3rd. Darnell McDonald followed with one of his two hits on the day to drive in Rosales. Joey Votto did the same to drive in Stubbs. Consecutive walks to Phillips and Scott Rolen put another run on the board and the Reds led 5-0.
While all of this was happening, Johnny Cueto was cruising right along, allowing just 1 hit and 2 walks through the first 5 innings. He ran into trouble in the 6th though, walking lead-off hitter Ryan Theriot and back-to-back singles Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, the latter scoring Theriot. Geovany Soto ended Cueto's day with a double that plated Lee and moved Ramirez to third base.
Daniel Ray Herrera relieved Cueto but allowed a sacrifice fly to score Ramirez and a walk and was replaced with Ramon Ramirez who induced a flyout from Jeff Baker to end the inning.
The Cubs rallied again in the 7th a walks to Kosuke Fukudome and Lee put runners on 1st and 2nd with one out. Nick Masset came to the game to face Aramis Ramirez who promptly singled to load the bases. Masset struck Milton Bradley out, but then gave up another double to Geovanny Soto. Both Fukudome and Lee scored, but a nice relay from Stubbs to Paul Janish to Corky Miller nailed Ramirez at the plate, preserving a 5-5 tie.
The 8th inning was quiet on both sides, and it looked like the Reds would stall out in the 9th as Rolen grounded into a double play after a Phillips single. However, 2-out walks to Jonny Gomes and Kevin Barker left the door open for Drew Sutton to be a hero, and Sutton didn't disappoint. His double into right field plated both runners and gave the Reds a 7-5 lead.
Francisco Cordero made quick work of the Cubs in the 9th, throwing just 9 pitches in a 1-2-3 inning.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

The win today still leaves open the possibility that the Reds could finish this road trip with a split. As bad as they played during the 5-game losing streak, a split would feel like a freaking miracle.
The Reds had 10 different players reach base via a hit or a walk.

The Tale Of The Season: Cubs Defense, Marmol Fail In 7-5 Loss To Reds

Al — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 21:00:56 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

"If only you guys had played better defense, I could still be in this game!"

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Even I, the eternal optimist, have to admit that the task of making a baseball miracle and getting this Cubs team into the playoffs is probably impossible now.

The Cubs lost to the Reds 7-5 on another sun-kissed September afternoon that reminded all of us of the summer we missed, both baseball-wise and weatherwise. That wasn't the entire story, of course; the Cubs made a stirring comeback from a 5-0 deficit to tie the game in the bottom of the 7th, only to lose.

Wasn't that about the story of the entire season? We got teased from time to time, the team making us think they were about to make an extended run and get back into the race, only to fall back and have reality set in.

Today, the Cubs gave the Reds six outs in the third inning and no team can expect to overcome bad play like that. They were, in fact, lucky to get out of that inning with only two runs scoring. One of the three Cub errors in that inning was an unlucky one -- Aramis Ramirez couldn't have aimed the throw on Drew Stubbs' grounder better than he actually threw it. The ball hit Corky Miller in the helmet and ricocheted at least 100 feet away into about the fifth row behind the Cubs dugout. A run scored and runners wound up on second and third. This was after Derrek Lee, as sure-handed a fielder as the Cubs have, fumbled a bunt attempt by pitcher Johnny Cueto, which should have been an automatic out.

Even after that, the Cubs could have gotten out of the inning with no runs scoring. Darnell McDonald hit a ball to Ryan Theriot, who threw home to get Cueto. That left runners on first and third with one out, and Randy Wells got the tough Joey Votto to hit a grounder right to Lee for what should have been an inning-ending double play. Unfortunately, Theriot dropped the ball, and Brandon Phillips' subsequent single scored the second run of the inning.

Both of those runs were unearned due to the errors, and the three runs that scored in the third should have been unearned, too; Votto's ball that glanced off Lee's glove was scored a hit, but should have also been an error. That could have been a double play, too, and then even after a pair of walks Jonny Gomes' grounder would have ended the inning with no runs scoring.

Randy Wells deserved better, and the bullpen did a good job of keeping the Reds at five runs while the Cubs were hurriedly catching up; Geovany Soto, whose bat has come alive in this series, hit doubles in the sixth and seventh innings, driving in three of the five runs the Cubs scored to come back and tie. Ramirez was thrown out at the plate -- I would have sent him too, with two out and the tying run already in. It took a perfect throw and relay to get him.

But then, Carlos Marmol came in. Marmol has been very good since being anointed closer, but this was not a save situation and Marmol pitched like the old, bad, pre-closer Marmol. Even after a slick DP got him to two out and no one on, he walked a pair and gave up a two-run double to a .176 hitter, Drew Sutton. (Can you tell the difference between Drew Stubbs and Drew Sutton? I can't.) How can you do that? In any case, Angel Guzman should have been in this game instead of Marmol, but apparently, Guzman is deep in Lou's doghouse after the two had words the other day in Pittsburgh when Guzman didn't agree with Lou's decision to yank him.

That simply can't happen. Guzman was wrong to do that, but at a certain point, the manager has to put the guy in the game who has the best chance of doing the job at hand. In this case, in a tie game in the ninth inning, it was Guzman's role, not Marmol's.

So at this point, what to do? Play guys who have a chance to be contributors next year. Bobby Scales, thank you for your moment in the sun, but you're not going to be a Cub in 2010. Jake Fox should be in LF every day while Alfonso Soriano is on the shelf, in order to either determine his role in 2010 or increase his trade value. Same for Andres Blanco; he should be playing SS every day, particularly since Theriot is hitting .211 since August 15. Let's find out whether Blanco is someone who could be the primary backup infielder next year. And let's not put Aaron Miles into any more games, please.

I'll have lots more to say about 2010 once this season has finally ended. It's been difficult -- as you all well know -- in many ways. Until then, try to enjoy the rest of the season; perhaps there will be a thrilling comeback win, or a great individual performance to enjoy. It's still baseball, and we all love the game, or at least I hope you do. We'll miss it when winter comes. And next year will bring new ownership and new hope. Keep the faith; someday, the Cubs WILL win the World Series. In the meantime, I'm off to the U2 concert tonight at Soldier Field; maybe I'll see you there.

Better Baseball Through Chemistry: Cubs vs. Reds Preview, Saturday 9/12, 12:05 CT

Al — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 14:00:31 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

This entire season has been a little squirrelly.

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Yesterday wasn't the first time a squirrel entertained fans at Wrigley Field by running across the field during a game. It also happened on October 6, 2001; that Pittsburgh Post-Gazette article simply notes its presence, but I remember the squirrel running rings around Roosevelt Brown in center field that afternoon. That didn't stop Brown from having his career day; he hit two homers and drove in seven runs in a 13-2 Cubs win over the Pirates that was also notable for Julian Tavarez taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning.

That game was also the last Cubs telecast directed by legendary WGN-TV director Arne Harris; he suffered a fatal heart attack while out to dinner that evening.

This morning I also want to talk about what a seemingly innocuous player move can do to help a team go on a long winning streak. I was watching the beginning of the Rockies/Padres game last night, and the Colorado announcers were going on and on and on about how Jason Giambi's presence had helped the chemistry in the clubhouse; Giambi had made friends quickly, brought some laughter, and also spent hours in the batting cage working on his swing, being ready for one pinch-hitting appearance.

Now, I admit that clubhouse chemistry is something that's hard to get and even harder to define. Sometimes a team that's said to have "good chemistry" is just a team that's winning. Does winning make for good chemistry, or does good chemistry breed winning? It's impossible to tell. But I do know that I'd rather have had Jason Giambi signed by the Cubs when the A's released him, than have had Micah Hoffpauir flailing away at pitches, even though Hoffpauir has done well since his return. In 14 plate appearances for Colorado, Giambi has three hits and six walks and has directly contributed to several of the wins during the Rockies' now 8-game winning streak, including a two-out walk in the Rox' ridiculous two-out, two-strike, ninth-inning come-from-behind 4-1 win over the Padres and their closer Heath Bell late last night.

Clubhouse chemistry in and of itself doesn't make for winning teams. Good baseball players do. But Jason Giambi has given the Rockies both, and the clubhouse presence DOES matter. There's also something to be said here about American League players coming to the National League -- look at what Matt Holliday has done since his return to the NL. The Cubs should have signed Giambi when he was released by the A's. But Jim Hendry rarely thinks outside the box like this. He needs to start doing so.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Randy Wells Cubs	vs.	Johnny Cueto Reds

10-8	W-L	9-10
2.84	ERA	4.39
84	SO	116
35	BB	49
12	HR	21
vs. Hou	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Randy Wells	10-8	22	22	0	0	0	0	139.1	135	51	44	12	35	84	2.84	1.22

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Johnny Cueto	9-10	26	26	0	0	0	0	147.2	148	78	72	21	49	116	4.39	1.33

Johnny Cueto beat the Cubs at Wrigley Field on April 22, throwing seven shutout innings. He's made two other starts vs. the Cubs this year, one in Cincinnati, one in Chicago, and allowed nine earned runs in 11.2 innings in those starts (6.94 ERA). Derrek Lee, Ryan Theriot and Geovany Soto all have career BA over .300 vs. Cueto.

Randy Wells has started three times vs. the Reds this year and is 2-0 (and the Cubs won the other game, too). Ryan Hanigan (4-for-8) and Brandon Phillips (3-for-8) have hit him well, otherwise he's handled the rest of their hitters pretty well. With J.A. Happ injured and possibly on the shelf for a while, Wells has a shot at increasing his Rookie of the Year chances with strong performances for the rest of the year, likely four more starts.

TV today is cable-only, CSN Chicago and FSN Ohio. Reminder, that means you're blacked out if you're not in the local areas for those channels, due to Bud's Idiotic Saturday Blackout Rules (no EI before 6 pm CT). For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Reds site Red Reporter.

Once again, just two overflow threads today -- 1:15 and 2:30 pm CDT. If there's a need for another one, please post as a FanShot.

Discuss amongst yourselves.