SB Nation - Justin Lehr

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

The Farmies, part 2

nycredsfan — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:00:28 -0000

No, it's the FarMIES...but they're all welcome anyway

View full size photo »

Welcome to day two of the Farmies. Yesterday brought us some major power, defense, and rising prospects. Today we celebrate the real cream of the crop of the Reds minor league system.

Comeback Player of the Year

Homer Bailey

Let's review:

2007-Bailey makes his debut to delirious fan support and is anointed the Great Hope. He proceeds to struggle a bit the rest of the year.

2008-He's beaten out for a rotation spot by Johnny Cueto and has a very rough year between AAA and the bigs. In the offseason he almost gets traded straight up for Jermaine Dye.

2009-He learns a bit of humility, a bit of control, and the split-finger and dominates AAA. He comes up to Cincinnati and has a positively Arroyo-like end to the season. His last 9 starts he goes 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA, striking out 53 in 58 innings and holding opponents to a .631 OPS against.

Last offseason many had given up on him. As of this minute he might be our second best starter. Welcome, GoodHomer. We hope you're here to stay.

Honorable Mention:

This goes to Justin Lehr for two reasons: 1) He was pitching in Korea last year, and this year posted a 2.51 ERA and .89 WHIP in 75 AAA innings, and 2) Teaching Homer the splitter. Big ups, Justin. I wish you the best of luck, just not with the Cincinnati Reds.

2010 Breakout Candidate

Devin Mesoraco

Wait a minute, you say. How do you give it to a guy who hit .228 in high-A this season? Here's why: His BB rate, LD% and ISO all improved dramatically, and his average was weighed down by a .276 BABIP despite the high line drive rate. AND he was only 20/21 playing in the FSL, which makes everyone not named Jay Bruce look bad the first time round. Minorleaguesplits.com's luck factor says he should've put up a line of .279/.356/.452. I'd take that from my catcher. Most importantly, perhaps, his defense behind the plate is reported to be much improved. Next year will be his 3^rd full pro season, and I could see him cruising through Carolina and being a late season call-up to AAA, with people debating whether to make him or Ramon Hernandez the starter in 2011.

Honorable Mention:

Juan Duran-Next year you can start to judge him by his stats, which I'm guessing will be much better.

Minor League Manager of the Year

Rick Sweet

Last year's IL manager of the year is this year's RR Manager of the Year. I can't imagine how hard it is to manage a AAA team with so much personnel change during a season, but Sweet kept the Bats rolling all year to an 84-58 record and the organization's only playoff berth. He owns a 387-330 record in 5 seasons as the Bats manager. The Reds record over that span is 377-433. Draw your own conclusions.

Honorable Mention

Joe Ayrault-Do you have any idea which team he manages? Didn't think so. His team was terrible, but I thought he deserved a little love anyway. His Wikipedia page has a couple fun facts.

Minor League Hitter of the Year

Juan Francisco

.296/.328/.523, 29 HR, 32 doubles, 93 RBI. Would you take that line from your third baseman? How about your left fielder? That's the line El Nino Destructor put up over two levels (AA-AAA) this season. You can talk all you want about walks and strikeouts, E.N.D. won't listen. He crushed AA as a 21 year old, turned 22, decided he was a man amongst boys, and proceeded to own AAA. Then, when called up to the big club in September, as the team's youngest player (2 months younger than Bruce), he put up an OPS of 1.139 in 25 plate appearances. In that short time he was worth .5 WAR, which was more than Willy Taveras, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Rosales, Darnell McDonald, and Drew Sutton, and equaled the value of Jerry Hairston Jr. and Ramon Hernandez......ROAR.

(Thanks to BubbaFan for the amazingly awesome pic)

Honorable Mention:

Always a bridesmaid but never a bride, Chris Heisey had this award wrapped up in late June, scuffled a bit in AAA, but still put together a good campaign. He was pipped at the post by Francisco's August and September. Final line-.319/.386/.523

Todd Frazier had another very, very solid season. If you like walks (I gaze into their eyes at night) it was tempting to give him this award. Final line-.292/.353/.474

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Travis Wood

This one's a no brainer. Over two levels (AA-AAA) Wood posted a 13-5 record. He must be good right? In addition to the all-important W-L record, Wood sported a 7.15 K/9 rate and lowered his BB/9 rate to 2.86, by far his best rate in 4 professional seasons. These two solid peripherals, combined with a low BABIP, meant that his WHIP was a sparkling 1.04. Oh, and he only gave up 6 homers all year in 176 IP. Yes, but wasn't he supported by good defenses in Carolina and Louisville? Perhaps, but his FIP was a very solid 3.28. Did I mention the kid is only 22? Stop your arguing, the kid can pitch.

Honorable Mention:

Zach (sniff, sniff) Stewart

Justin Lehr had a great year in Louisville, and taught Homer that splitter. If he had any prospect value he'd be on stage crying and thanking his agent right now.

That's all, folks. Thanks for joining us tonight, don't forget to tip your waiters, and we'll see you again next year.

Cueto goes to 11! Reds win, 8-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 03:40:09 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Joey Votto. The Irresistable Force went 2-3 with a double, a home run, three RBI, a run scored, and two walks. Dude's good.

Key Plays

Johnny Cueto got off to a rough start. He walked Andrew McCutchen, then gave up a run-scoring double to Andy LaRoche. It seems like it's been awhile since we've harped on all the first inning runs the Reds have given up. They gave up a lot.
In the second inning, the Reds used the same walk-double strategy to even the game. Scott Rolen drew the walk, and Darnell McDonald hit the double. Walks to Ramon Hernandez and Drew Stubbs loaded the bases, but Paul Janish flew out to end the inning.
Scott Rolen homered in the third. Know what? I haven't really missed Edwin since we traded him.
McDonald led off the fourth inning with a single, and went to third on Ramon Hernandez's single. Then he scored on a passed ball. After Cueto and Stubbs made outs, Paul Janish walked, and he and Hernandez scored on Joey Votto's double. Votto was thrown out trying to stretch the hit into a triple.
Cueto ran into trouble in the sixth inning. He gave up a leadoff single to Garrett Jones, and a walk to Brandon Moss one out later. Then Delwyn Young hit a three run homer to bring the Pirates within one run.
The Pirates hadn't counted on El Nino Destructor, however. In the bottom of the sixth, Ramon Hernandez doubled to lead off, and Willy Taveras came in to run for him. Then Juan Francisco hit a double to right field and Taveras scored. ROAR! Francisco then scored on successive sacrifices by Stubbs and Janish. ROAR!
Votto homered in the eighth inning. Such a giver.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Brandon Phillips had been 0-16 before singling in the eighth. If he gets five RBI tomorrow, he'll finish with 100 on the season.
Francisco Cordero pitched a scoreless ninth, but it was not a save situation. He's still one save shy of 40 for the season.
Joey Votto's 25th home run gave him a career high.
With the win, Johnny Cueto joins fellow starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, and Justin Lehr to not have a losing record.
Since both the Brewers and Reds won, the Reds have clinched fourth place in the NL Central.

Final - 10.3.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	6	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	1	X	8	11	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (11 - 11) LP: Zach Duke (11 - 16)

Complete Coverage >

Pirates discover the Reds' Secret Underground Lehr. Reds lose, 3-1.

Brendanukkah — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 04:07:16 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Sure, Brandon looks like he's concentrating on the play, but secretly he's beginning to suspect he's not going to be getting that $2 million from David Letterman. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Andy LaRoche. He went 2-3 and drove in two runs.

Key Plays

The Brothers McCutchen did the damage in the third inning. Lehr walked Daniel McCutchen, then Andrew McCutchen doubled. That's when Andy LaRoche hit his single. Pirates 2, Reds 0.
In the fourth inning, Lastings Milledge went all Blastings Milledge and hit a home run. Pirates 3, Reds 0.
The Reds didn't have much in the way of offense, but Wladimir Balentien did hit a home run in the seventh inning. Pirates 3, Reds 1.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

On both of his hits, Andy LaRoche was thrown out trying to stretch his single into a double.
Double-machine Paul Janish hit a double. Then Joey Votto hit what should have been a double, but Lastings Milledge made a nice catch. Flashtings-the-Leather Milledge.
Arthur Rhodes apparently broke his toe on Sept. 4. He then pitched in eight games. And now he's on the disabled list. Thanks for the great season, Colossus!
Walt Jocketty also broke his toe when he was kicking Dick Pole to the curb.
This was Daniel McCutchen's first career victory. Shame it came against the Reds, but congratulations kid. You prevented the Pirates from losing 100 games this season.

Final - 10.2.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	5	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	5	0
WP: Daniel McCutchen (1 - 2) SV: Matt Capps (27) LP: Justin Lehr (5 - 3)

Complete Coverage >

Pirates Avoid 100-Loss Season with 3-1 Victory Over Reds

Charlie — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 01:48:48 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Lastings Milledge reacts after hitting a solo home run off Cincinnati Reds' Justin Lehr in the fourth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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And there was noooooooo doubt about it.

There were some negatives here, like the gargantuan upper-deck homer Daniel McCutchen gave up to Wladimir Balentien, the Pirates letting Justin Lehr strike them out six times, and Andy LaRoche's twice getting caught trying to stretch a single into a double. But overall this was a nice game--Lastings Milledge homered, Andy LaRoche plated two runs, and Andrew McCutchen doubled, walked and stole a base. And Dan McCutchen grabbed his first major league win, finishing his season on a high note by striking out five in six and a third, while only allowing a run on that homer by Balentien. The bullpen held up, too.

No Relation finishes his season with a perfectly palatable 4.21 ERA and three consecutive quality starts. Not bad for a rookie, although he continues to need to work on his home runs allowed. Six in about 36 innings, or about 30 over the course of a full season, is too many. He's earned a clean shot at a full-time rotation job next year, though, which means he might bump Kevin Hart to the bullpen if there aren't any trades and everyone stays healthy.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:09:07 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Mat Gamel is congratulated Mike Cameron and Alcides Escobar after hitting a three-run home run during the sixth inning Sunday. Somehow, I skimmed over 1000 posts on over 300 baseball sites this morning and didn't find a single mention of it.

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Some things to read while getting the baby to smile.

The Brewers have a day off today to reflect on the 2009 home season, which saw them draw 3,037,197 fans, down just 31,000 from last season, despite posting their first losing record at home since 2004. Seth McClung was sad he didn't get to pitch in the last game, but also offered some insight into what the clubhouse is like on the final day at home. And tristarscoop has a photo of the carnage in the final sausage race.

For at least three Brewers, the off day will be an opportunity to see a doctor. Casey McGehee (knee), Mark DiFelice (shoulder) and Mike Burns (shoulder) will all see specialists today in the hope of firming up a prognosis and offseason plan. McGehee isn't sure if he'll need offseason surgery to repair a knee that's been sore for months, DiFelice thinks he'll be fine but wants to make sure, and Burns recently revealed he's had shoulder soreness for several days now.

Has Ken Macha managed his last game at Miller Park? He doesn't seem to think so. If he does return next season he could have a new pitching coach, as the team is reportedly considering making an offer to former A's and Mets coach Rick Peterson (FanShot).

Dave Bush had another rough outing yesterday, including hitting opposing pitcher Joe Blanton with a curveball while Blanton was attempting to bunt. That HBP put him back in the major league lead at 15. That's the fifth highest single season total in Brewer history, which is pretty impressive considering Bush has only pitched 114.1 innings this season. No pitcher has ever plunked more than 16 batters while pitching fewer than 120 innings: Bush will likely get one more start to attempt to become the first.

Josh Butler also pitched in yesterday's game, and his rough outing will be his final Brewer appearance this season. While the team is headed out on the road today, Butler is headed back to Huntsville, then to the Brewers' training facility in Arizona to get ready for the Arizona Fall League.

Speaking of HBPs, Jason Kendall picked up his 247th on Saturday on a pitch from Kyle Kendrick. Plunk Everyone has, among other things, the full list of every player with double initials that has hit Kendall. Unfortunately, plunkings mustn't be weighted very heavily in the Elias rankings, as Kendall is starting to slide down the charts and now sits near the bottom of Type B free agents.

Prince Fielder is up to 42 home runs this season, and Plunk Everyone ranked him third in all of baseball in home run difficulty. Follow the link for an explanation: I think the stat has some merit.

Ryan Braun picked up his 30th home run in dramatic fashion on Saturday night. The Dugout Doctors list him as one of their current players to build a franchise around, but Fake Teams asks if he's getting overhyped.

In the minors:

Project Prospect has ranked pitchers from each level of the minors by out %. In AA, Donovan Hand, Bobby Bramhall and Mike McClendon cracked the top 50, and Dan Meadows, Efrain Nieves, Nick Tyson and Wily Peralta made the top 50 for the Timber Rattlers. No Brevard County Manatees or Nashville Sounds made the lists.
Maverick Lasker (11th) and Max Walla (20th) both appeared on Baseball America's rankings of the top 20 prospects in the Arizona Rookie League this season.

If you're already feeling nostalgic for 2009, Big League Stew has a look back at the Brewers season that was.

Baseball Digest Daily has the Brewers holding steady at #17 in their power rankings.

Around baseball:

Mets: Claimed pitcher Jack Egbert off waivers from the White Sox.

Ever wonder what 2009 would have looked like if the Brewers had somehow found a way to hold on to all the pitchers they've discarded over the years? The rotation might have included Justin Lehr, who was getting ready to give up on baseball before the Reds called him up this season. His numbers as a Red haven't been fantastic, but he might actually be an improvement over some of the guys the Brewers have trotted out there this season.

If the Brewers decide not to retain Mike Cameron this offseason, here's another name to add to the list of potential replacements: Oakland's Rajai Davis. A's Nation thinks the Brewers might be a candidate to acquire him, but also thinks they might be willing to give up Brett Lawrie in exchange, and that's absolutely ridiculous. Elsewhere in center field, Rick Ankiel doesn't expect to return to St. Louis. And if the Brewers end up needing another gritty utility infielder to replace Craig Counsell, Omar Vizquel wants to play another year.

If you're already looking ahead to the fall and winter seasons, get your calendar out: The Baseball Zealot has a list of important dates for you.

Or, if you're looking forward to the hot stove season, here's something for you: Circling the Bases has the top ten free agents for this offseason. Ben Sheets, who still hasn't pitched since last September, checks in at #10. Given his extended absence and his history regarding work ethic and rehab, I'm guessing he's going to show up in someone's camp next spring out of shape and/or unable to pitch. In fact, I'll be surprised if he passes a physical.

Speaking of guys who are out of shape, stop back later today for a special surprise. That's all I'm saying about it.

How long can you extend your career, based purely on the ability to get on base? Ken Griffey Jr. is batting .210 this season for the Mariners, but leads the team in walks and drew the 1300th of his career yesterday. That's over 22 miles in walks.

I have two email addresses that get constant emails from MLB.com which I typically delete without reading. It's good to know that's unavoidable: MLB has reportedly been ignoring requests to be removed from their mailing list. That's always a solid business practice.

Finally, after months of rumor and panic, we have a definitive list of the symptoms associated with Royals Fever.

Can you imagine Miller Park being used for this? Seamheads has the story of Milwaukee's Athletic Park being renovated in 1892 to become the home of "The Last Days of Pompeii." Interesting stuff.

Happy birthday today to Brian Banks, who turns 39, and Mike DeJean, who also turns 39.

Oh, and today's Mug probably would have come out ten minutes earlier if Rob Neyer hadn't introduced me to Worldometers.

Drink up.

Reds make thrilling late season run towards mediocrity, sweep Astros 6-5.

Brendanukkah — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 03:21:32 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Thousands of red seats showed up to honor and thank Hal McCoy for his 37 years of service to the Reds and baseball. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Jeff Fulchino. He threw the wild pitch that allowed Joey Votto to score the winning run. Votto, Brandon Phillips, Drew Stubbs, and Wladimir Balentien all had big games as well.

Key Plays

The Astros made some plays and there was some exciting defense, but they lost so screw them. They're not getting recapped anymore.
Jonny Gomes hit a home run in the second inning to give the Reds the lead.
Drew Stubbs hit a home run in the third, then Joey Votto walked, went to third on Phillips's single, and scored on Scott Rolen's sacrifice fly. Two runs! Tie game!
Wladimir Balentien hit a double to lead off the fourth inning. He moved to third on Craig Tatum's sacrifice fly, and scored when Justin Lehr bunted to the pitcher, and Yorman Bazardo threw it away. Reds lead, 4-3!
Balentien scored again in the sixth inning. He singled, and Tatum bunted him to second. After Jay Bruce struck out, Drew Stubbs singled to bring in Balentien. Tie game!
Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips singled to begin the seventh inning, putting runners on the corners. Scott Rolen came up and struck out, but not before Jeff Fulchino threw a wild pitch and Votto crossed the plate with the winning run.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Reds are only three games out of fourth place. Here we come!
Jeff Keppinger hit two home runs - in the same game! It was the first time he'd ever done that.
This was the second series against the Astros that the Reds have swept in Cincinnati this season. The Reds have won seven in a row against the 'Stros.
The Astros hit five home runs off of Justin Lehr, which tied a club record. The last Reds pitcher to give up five homers was Brandon Claussen on July 18, 2005.
Jonny Gomes became the third Red to reach the 20 homer mark. He's only one behind Joey Votto for the club lead.
Juan Francisco drew a walk. ZOMG! His ML walk rate of 50% is blowing away his minor league numbers.
Coco Cordero has pitched - and gotten a save in - the last three days and four of the last five. Let's hope for a blowout tomorrow.

Final - 9.16.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Houston Astros	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	12	1
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	2	1	0	1	1	0	X	6	11	0
WP: Jared Burton (1 - 0) SV: Francisco Cordero (37) LP: Wesley Wright (3 - 3)

Complete Coverage >

We love you, Patrick! "Ditto." Reds win, 3-1.

Brendanukkah — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 03:07:51 -0000

via fullofsmoke.com

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Patrick Swayze. Finally, Heaven's Chippendales roster is complete. Also, Jay Bruce had the game winning hit in his return to Cincinnati.

Key Plays

There was a distinct lack of offense in this game. Both teams were scoreless until Houston broke through in the sixth inning. Then, with two outs, traditional Reds killers Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee singled and double respectively. Berkman scored and the Astros were winning 1-0.
The Reds staged their comeback in the seventh inning. Scott Rolen walked to lead off the frame, and Jonny Gomes hit a double to put runners on second and third. Juan Francisco then came up to bat for Darnell McDonald. El Nino Destructor's major league debut ended in a strikeout, but still, an exciting moment. Pinch hitter Kevin Barker was intentionally walked to load the bases, and then pinch hitter Jay Bruce - as foretold by jch - hit a single to right field that scored Rolen and Gomes. Reds on top, 2-1.
Brandon Phillips added a Great American Insurance run in the eighth inning with his 20th home run of the year.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

Bronson Arroyo now has a winning record, joining Edinson Volquez and Justin Lehr as the only starters better than .500. Nick Masset is the only other pitcher on the roster with a winning record.
Francisco Cordero's 35th save beats his total from last year. It's been said again and again, but it's really impressive that So-So Cordero has not made any noteable appearances this season.
Once again, El Nino Destructor's major league debut everybody!
As Dude Rock and Slyde are quick to point out, Arroyo has a 2.11 ERA over his last 13 starts.
Patrick Swayze had an appearance on M*A*S*H* back in 1981. Weird, huh?

Final - 9.14.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Houston Astros	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	7	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	X	3	7	0
WP: Bronson Arroyo (13 - 12) SV: Francisco Cordero (35) LP: Wandy Rodriguez (13 - 10)

Complete Coverage >

Reds lose at least five in a row for the fourth time since the All-Star break. Cubs win, 6-4.

Brendanukkah — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 01:44:06 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

The Reds failed to bring in the squirrel from third base with less than two outs. (AP Photo/Jim Prisching)

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Sure, I could tell you about Jonny Gomes's home run, or noted Reds-killer Aramis Ramirez's three hits, or Brandon Phillips trade bait Jeff Stevens getting the win. But the Reds lost, nobody around here watched it, and OMG THERE'S A SQUIRREL ON THE BASEPATHS!

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Cubs wore dumb red hats.
Fuck Osama bin Laden.

Final - 9.11.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	4	6	0
Chicago Cubs	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	1	X	6	7	0
WP: Jeff Stevens (1 - 0) SV: Carlos Marmol (12) LP: Justin Lehr (4 - 2)

Complete Coverage >

Winning Streak At Four: Cubs Defeat Reds 6-4 Despite Harden's Struggles

Al — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 21:53:04 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Throw strikes, please. And the red caps? Um, nope.

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Summer arrived at Wrigley Field today, a couple of months late. Didn't anyone tell the weather folks that this is the weather we should have had in July?

Rich Harden apparently wanted to make summer last forever, as he threw an alarming 103 pitches in four innings before Lou had seen enough and sent Aaron Miles up to bat for him in the last of the fourth. Miles actually saw four pitches before grounding to second. (Harden probably could have done that, and then been lifted anyway.) It got so bad with Harden's lack of control that Lou actually had David Patton warming up in the first inning, despite the fact that Harden hadn't allowed a hit. Instead, Harden had walked the bases loaded and thrown 39 pitches to get the first three outs.

Thankfully, the Cubs had enough offense off Justin Lehr, who had shut them out in Cincinnati in August. Aramis Ramirez drove in three runs -- he now has 54 RBI, and with two more will move into second place on the 2009 Cub team list behind Derrek Lee. Think about that. 56 RBI is 2nd on the team, and Ramirez has about half the at-bats of the people he's passing. That's how difficult offense has been to come by at times for this team. Geovany Soto homered -- his first since August 10 -- and the Cubs hung on for a 6-4 win. Their playoff hopes with 23 games remaining and an 8.5 game deficit may be very slim (0.7% by Baseball Prospectus' estimate), but all you can do is go out there every day and win your game and see what happens.

Lou apparently decided to use the middle innings, with the Cubs leading 4-1 after Soto's homer, to audition pitchers for next year's bullpen. Perhaps we can cross Jeff Stevens off the list. Stevens gave up two singles and a three-run homer to Jonny Gomes, tying the game. For that performance, Stevens got his first major league win, because he was the pitcher of record when Kosuke Fukudome walked for the second time in the game, went to second on a wild pitch, and scored on Ramirez's single. This is proof positive that wins for relief pitchers are virtually meaningless. The official scorer does have the discretion to award the victory to someone other than the pitcher of record if he pitches "briefly and ineffectively", as the official rules state. Today was a perfect example of a game where that could have been the case. Aaron Heilman -- who's actually thrown better lately -- came in after Stevens and threw two shutdown innings, striking out the side in the seventh and throwing 22 strikes in his 34 pitches. Heilman deserved the win.

Also auditioning for next year was Esmailin Caridad, who has a good arm and also threw a good scoreless inning. He needs to develop a breaking pitch; perhaps the Cubs will send him to winter ball so he can work on one. Caridad, who will be 26 next month, could be an important part of the 2010 bullpen.

Carlos Marmol will definitely be the anchor of that pen -- it appears he has finally settled down now that he's been officially named closer. Despite a walk and single (which wouldn't have been a single if Andres Blanco had been inserted for defense in the 9th, as Koyie Hill was), Marmol stayed within himself and finished off the Reds for his 12th save.

As I said -- the chances are slim. But the Cubs are setting themselves up to have one of the better Septembers in recent memory; they're 7-3 and riding a four-game winning streak. Let's keep riding it. Keep the faith and go Cubs.