SB Nation - Matt Maloney

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 18:00:18 -0000

We continue the Baseball America Top 10 Prospect lists for 2010 with the NL Central:

Cubs

1.	Starlin Castro, ss
2.	Brett Jackson, of
3.	Josh Vitters, 3b
4.	Andrew Cashner, rhp
5.	Jay Jackson, rhp
6.	Hak-Ju Lee, ss
7.	Logan Watkins, 2b
8.	Chris Carpenter, rhp
9.	Ryan Flaherty, ss/2b/3b
10.	D.J. LeMahieu, ss/2b

More after the jump:

Reds

1.	Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b
2.	Yonder Alonso, 1b
3.	Mike Leake, rhp
4.	Chris Heisey, of
5.	Juan Francisco, 3b
6.	Yorman Rodriguez, of
7.	Travis Wood, lhp
8.	Matt Maloney, lhp
9.	Brad Boxberger, rhp
10.	Zack Cozart, ss

Brewers

1. Alcides Escobar, ss

2. Brett Lawrie, 2b

3. Mat Gamel, 3b

4. Eric Arnett, rhp

5. Jonathan Lucroy, c

6. Kentrail Davis, of

7. Zach Braddock, lhp

8. Lorenzo Cain, of

9. Jake Odorizzi, rhp

10. Kyle Heckathorn, rhp

Astros

1. Jason Castro, c

2. Jiovanni Mier, ss

3. Jordan Lyles, rhp

4. Sammy Gervacio, rhp

5. Chia-Jen Lo, rhp

6. Ross Seaton, rhp

7. Tanner Bushue, rhp

8. Jay Austin, of

9. Jon Gaston, of

10. T.J. Steele, of

Pirates

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b

2. Jose Tabata, of

3. Tony Sanchez, c

4. Brad Lincoln, rhp

5. Chase D'Arnaud, ss/2b

6. Starling Marte, of

7. Tim Alderson, rhp

8. Zack Von Rosenberg, rhp

9. Rudy Owens, lhp

10. Gorkys Hernandez, of

Cardinals

1. Shelby Miller	rhp
2. Jaime Garcia	lhp
3. Lance Lynn	rhp
4. Daryl Jones	of
5. David Freese	3b/1b
6. Eduardo Sanchez	rhp
7. Allen Craig	of/1b/3b
8. Blake Hawksworth	rhp
9. Daniel Descalso	2b
10. Robert Stock	c

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

Reds finally decide to start their season, dismantle the Astros 10-4

BK — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 04:24:37 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

You want a shot at the rotation next year? You're going through this man. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Matt Maloney, of course. Matty went 7 strong innings, giving up only 2 runs on 6 hits, and walked nobody. He struck out 4, and probably could have gone another inning, since he was only at 93 pitches and had an 8-run lead, but Dusty yanked him in favor of unproven bullpenners.

Key Plays

Joey Votto struck early for the good guys, hitting his 23rd home run of the season to give the Reds a 1-0 lead.
The Reds broke out in the 2nd for 5 runs in the 2nd, and ended up chasing former Red Brian Moehler (remember that?) out of the game in the 3rd, giving the Reds a 7-1 lead.
Jay Bruce's solo shot in the 5th and Wladimir Balentien's 2-run single in the 6th gave the Reds 10 runs, and free wings for Astros fans.
After Maloney left after the 7th, Pedro Viola gave up 2 runs in the 8th. That was pretty much the game.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

Matt Maloney put together another great start, and is now firmly in the conversation for the 5th starter spot next year. If he keeps pitching like he did today, he's got my vote. His ERA is 2.65 over his last 3 starts, and he put together his longest outing of the year this evening. Also, he's only walked 1 batter in those 3 starts.
The Reds 17 hits was the second highest total of the season, one less than the 18 they had in Arizona and it ties the 17 they had in Milwaukee.
6 Reds players had multiple hits, including a 3-for-5 night from Juan Francisco, who filled in for Scott Rolen, who was a late scratch. The other 5 were all names we should all start getting used to, in Drew Stubbs, Paul Janish, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and My Wladdy Balentien. Speaking for myself, it feels pretty good to see all those guys performing well on the same night.
Jo-eh drove in 4 of the Reds 10 runs.
All 9 of the Reds starters had at least one hit.
Jared Burton pitched a perfect 9th. This is a good sign, I think.
Reds win their 5th game in a row, and 9 of the last 11. Too bad the season doesn't start in September.
Rick Sweet was in uniform in the dugout as well. You may remember him as the manager who took Louisville to the playoffs this year.

Reds use Tresselball to beat the Marlins 3-2, by taking an early lead and sitting on it.

Brendanukkah — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 14:25:19 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

You can't spell "Jay Bruce" (in Latin) without "RBI." (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Sorry for the lateness of the recap. I fell asleep. You'd think the scintillating repartee in the game thread would have left me wide-eyed, but no.

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Matt Maloney. The rookie earned his first major league win, and did it in gritty style by fighting through the pain caused by a blister on his finger. He went five innings, gave up two runs (same ERA as a quality start) and struck out three while walking one. Darnell McDonald had two hits, Jay Bruce had two RBI, and the bullpen pitched four scoreless innings.

Key Plays

Darnell McDonald led off the game with a home run. WHOA! Doubles machine Paul Janish then hit a double, making everyone who said he shouldn't bat second look like a dope. Joey Votto and Scott Rolen both drew walks, and with two outs Jay Bruce hit an opposite field, bases loaded single to drive in two more runs. The Reds had three runs, and decided to take the rest of the night off.
Maloney was generally outstanding, but began to run out of gas in the fifth inning as his pitch count crept into the 90s. Chris Coghlan doubled to start the frame, and took third on Nick Johnson's groundout. He scored when future-Red Hanley Ramirez singled, and Ramirez himself scored on a dubbla by Dan Uggla. Maloney got Cody Ross to foul out to end the inning, then hit the showers.
The end.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Reds set a new record for second smallest attendance at GABP, with 9,685.
Coghlan had four hits on the night, and leads all NL rookies with 136. Remember when we were hyping Ryan Hanigan for Rookie of the Year? Good times... Well he only has 63 hits. Clearly Dusty is right not to play him.
Francisco Cordero got his NL-leading 38th save and his fourth save in as many days. He hasn't had a stretch like that since July 3-6, where he got three saves and blew the fourth but still earned the win.
The Reds have won nine in a row over the Marlins at GABP.

Farmers Only: Maloney and Wood shine

BK — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 12:15:09 -0000

First things first. Jay Bruce and Ryan Hanigan have both reported to Louisville on rehab. Also, most of the Carolina pitching staff from a few months ago are now with the AAA team. A couple of recent callups are starters Tom Cochran and Camilo Vazquez, and stud reliever Joseph "The Cycle" Krebs.

Louisville beat Indy 4-2 behind another good start by Travis Wood. Woody gave up 1 run in 5 innings of work, and struck out 6 Indians. Logan Ondrusek earned his 11th save for the Bats with a perfect 9th, dropping his ERA to 1.93 in AAA. Juan Francisco had two hits for the offense, and Daniel Dorn drove in 2 runs with a pinch-hit double. Up next: Ben Jukich takes on Indy at 7:15.
Carolina went back and forth in their game against Mississippi before they won 6-5. Matt Maloney had a great start, pitching 7 innings and giving up 1 run on a solo HR, and left with a 3-1 lead. After Zach Ward predictably blew it, the Mudcats battled back with 2 in the 8th only to give up 2 in the top of the 9th. Jose Castro broke the tie again in the 9th with a game winning single. Jason Bour and Sean Henry each had 3 hits for the Mudcats, and for some reason shortstop Kris Negron started the game in CF. Not sure where that came from, but we'll see if it becomes a trend. Up next: Luis Montano takes on Mississippi at 7:15.
Sarasota lost to Palm Beach 3-2, as the normally automatic Mace Thurman gave up the winning run. Dave Sappelt was 3-for-4, and Alex Buchholz had a multi-hit game too. Travis Webb started, and gave up 4 runs (1 earned) in 5 innings. Up next: Lance Janke takes the hill against Palm Beach at 7:05.
Dayton beat South Bend 5-3 behind a solid start by J.C. Sulbaran. Sulbaran gave up 3 runs in 6 innings of work for his 5th win of the year. Carlos Mendez drove in 3 runs with his 3 hits, and Kevin Coddington added a solo shot. Up next: Chase Ware takes on South Bend at 7.
Billings lost to Great Falls 4-3 in 10. Efrain Contreras and Thomas Nurre both homered. Leonardo Astorga gave up 1 run in 5 innings. Frank Pfister was 3-for-5. Up next: Billings takes on Helena at 9:05.

Garland Set To Face Old Teammates

Eric Stephen — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 00:00:21 -0000

Photo courtesy of Jon SooHoo / LA Dodgers

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Hometown boy Jon Garland makes his Dodger debut tonight, starting against his most recent teammates. I wonder how often signs and signals need to be changed when someone gets traded, especially when he goes directly to the current opponent.

Since the beginning of June, Garland has pitched well, much better than his 4-7 record. He has pitched at least six innings in 16 of his last 17 starts, averaging 6.53 innings per start while putting up a 3.56 ERA and 4.16 FIP during that span.

Garland was originally scheduled to start tonight for Arizona, that is before he was traded to the Dodgers Monday night. Starting in his place for the Diamondbacks is Billy Buckner. Buckner hasn't pitched in the majors since June 26. He was sent to the minors after four bad starts, allowing 26 runs in 18.1 innings, but his last good major league start was at Dodger Stadium on June 1, when Buckner beat the Dodgers with six shutout innings. With Triple A Reno, Buckner was was 7-1 over 11 starts after his demotion, with a 3.15 ERA and 8.44 strikeouts per nine innings.

Buckner told the Arizona Republic a reason for his success in Triple A was the development of a cut fastball. The last time a player got called up to make a start against the Dodgers after raving about a new pitch learned in the minors was Matt Maloney of the Reds, who was battered around on Saturday afternoon.

New Dodger pinch hitter extraordinaire Jim Thome has a balky back, which is why he really can't play first base. However, he's not the only one this series suffering from back issues. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tells the tale of Arizona catcher Chris Snyder, who went on the disabled list over the weekend with a lower back inflammation, and the concerns over a player signed through 2011 after suffering a down year. If Russell Martin himself doesn't provide enough of a cautionary tale of the risks of signing young catchers to a long-term deal, Chris Snyder just might be Exhibit B.

Here are tonight's lineups:

Diamondbacks		Dodgers
2B	Roberts	SS	Furcal
SS	Drew	CF	Kemp
RF	Upton	RF	Ethier
C	Montero	LF	Manny
3B	Reynolds	3B	Blake
1B	Allen	1B	Loney
LF	Parra	2B	Belliard
CF	Young	C	Martin
P	Buckner	P	Garland

**********

Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Don't forget to RSVP for True Blue LA Day at Dodger Stadium, on the next-to-last day of the regular season, October 3 against the Rockies.

Get your guesses in for our today's "One, Two, Three Strikes, You're Out," here.

Game Time: 7:10pm

TV: Prime Ticket

Baseball Reference Preview

Ain't supposed to die on a Saturday night: Reds lose to Dodgers, 11-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 15:18:56 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

"And the two behind the glove are even bigger, dingleberry!" (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Orlando Hudson. The #7 hitter went 2-3 with a home run, RBI, and two runs scored. He also made a nice diving play on a grounder hit by Scott Rolen to snuff out a rally.

Key Plays

As is their wont, the Reds made sure they were playing from behind right away. Juan Pierre singled with one out, and then Manny Ramirez took Maloney deep for his first home run since Aug. 11. 2-0, Dodgers.
The hit parade continued the next inning. Mark Loretta and Orlando Hudson singled to start things off, and Brad Ausmus singled to score Loretta. With Hudson on third, Charlie Haeger sacrificed Ausmus into scoring position as well, and Rafael Furcal hit a sac fly to bring in O-Dawg. Juan Pierre then got his second hit of the game, but Drew Stubbs made a nice throw to nail Ausmus at the plate. 4-0, Dodgers.
In the third inning, the Reds finally figured out Haeger's knuckleball in a big - albeit unlikely - way. Craig Tatum led off the inning with his first career home run. Silent treatment in the dugout for you, Craiggers. One out later, Drew Stubbs worked a walk, to Dusty's chagrin, and stole his first base in the majors. Anyone want to lay odds that Stubbs will steal 99 more bases before Taveras steals 75 more? At any rate, Paul Janish hit a home run, his first of the year. Then the usual suspects went to work. Joey Votto doubled and Brandon Phillips brought him around to score with a single. That was the end of the night for Haeger, and the Reds had tied the game, 4-4.
Rafael Furcal broke the deadlock in the fifth, with a solo home run.
The Reds looked poised to get that run back and maybe more in the bottom of the fifth. Votto led off with a single off of Jeff Weaver, and Brandon Phillips hit a double that moved Votto to third. Scott Rolen was hit by a pitch, and the bases were loaded with no outs. You can guess what happened next. Wladimir Balentien grounded into a fielder's choice as Furcal threw Votto out at home. Jonny Gomes popped up, and Tatum struck out to end the threat.
Take two. In the sixth inning, the Reds again loaded the bases, this time with two outs. Janish doubled, Votto was walked intentionally, and Phillips reached on an infield hit. Ramon Troncoso relieved Weaver, and induced a grounder from Scott Rolen. Hudson made a nice play, and the threat was over.
Not a great day for Maloney, but it was even worse outing for Carlos Fisher. Fisher has quietly had a good season, but not today. Pinch-hitter Andre Ethier doubled to start the seventh, and Furcal reached on a bunt single, then advanced to second when Fisher threw it away. Juan Pierre singled and drove in the two baserunners, while somewhere Willy Taveras could only sit and wonder how he did that. Fisher than walked Manny Ramirez, but immediately gave up a three run homer to Matt Kemp. Danny Ray Herrera came in in relief, got two outs, but then gave up a home run to Orlando Hudson, LA's fourth homer of the game. Six runs scored in the inning, and the Dodgers had their final lead, 11-4.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Dodgers have now won 21 of 25 over the Reds since 2006. No wonder Dusty is enamored of the Dodger Way -- or are the Dodgers so good because Dusty is some kind of Manchurian Candidate? Hmm....
The Reds are now up to 109 runs surrendered in the first inning. That's nearly one per game, which means the Reds are almost always starting out behind the eight ball.
Why did the Reds not score with bases loaded and no outs? Jeff Weaver explains: "Sometimes you use their aggressiveness against them," Weaver said. "That's what I did." Fuck. You. Dusty. Fuck. You. Jacoby.
The Reds continue to have all the health of pre-teen coal miners. Brandon Phillips was hobbling after his hits yesterday, and Laynce Nix has a bulging disk in his neck.

Final - 8.29.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Los Angeles Dodgers	2	2	0	0	1	0	6	0	0	11	13	1
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	11	2
WP: Jeff Weaver (6 - 4) LP: Matt Maloney (0 - 3)

Complete Coverage >

Haeger Ineffective But Dodgers Still Roll

Brendan Scolari — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 01:36:08 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Matt Kemp, left, and Orlando Hudson celebrate after the Dodgers defeated the Cincinnati Reds 11-4 in a baseball game, Saturday, Aug. 29, 2009, in Cincinnati. Kemp and Hudson both hit home runs in the game. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Charlie Haeger wasn't very good today, allowing 4 runs and 2 homeruns in 2.1 innings, but the Dodgers crushed the Reds 11-4 regardless. The Dodgers scored two runs in the first on a Manny Ramirez two run shot. Then in the second inning the Dodgers had three singles and a sacrifice fly to tack on two more runs. But in the bottom of the third inning Haeger allowed a walk, two homers, a single, and a double to tie the score 4-4 before being replaced by Jeff Weaver.

Weaver was hittable, allowing six hits in 3.1 innings, but didn't allow any runs and had four strikeouts. He also managed to get out of a bases loaded nobody out jam in the 5th by getting a forceout at home, a popout, and a strikeout. He also loeaded the bases with two outs in the 6th and Ramon Troncoso came on and got the last out.

Rafael Furcal broke the tie in the 5th inning with an opposite field solo homerun down the right field line, but the bats really exploded in the 7th inning. Andre Ethier started the inning off with a double and then got to third after the Reds threw away a bunt single by Furcal. Both of them scored on a line drive single by Juan Pierre to center field. Manny Ramirez walked on six pitches and then Matt Kemp hit a bomb to right center on the first pitch before Dusty baker finally replaced reliever Carlos Fisher. James Loney then walked before Mark Loretta hit into a double play. But before the inning was finished Orlando hudson added another homerun to left center field to give the Dodgers an 11-4 lead.

The Reds didn't pose much of a threat after the 6th, Dodger relievers Ronald Belisario and Guillermo Mota faced just one batter over the minimum. The win pushed the Dodgers 4.5 games ahead of the Rockies and 6.5 games ahead of the Giants in the NL West.

Tomorrow is the rubber match of the three game series, with Clayton Kershaw (8-7) facing off against Bronson Arroyo (11-12) at 10:10 AM. Also for all you Raider fans out there, the Raiders looked hideously bad today, getting destroyed 45-7 by the New Orleans Saints.

W - Jeff Weaver (6-4): 3.1 IP, 6 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts

L - Matt Maloney (0-3): 6 IP, 8 hits, 5 runs, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts

Dodgers Look To Rebound Against Reds

Eric Stephen — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 16:48:46 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Charlie Haeger has allowed three runs in two starts so far for the Dodgers.

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The Dodger offense was dormant for eight innings last night, not coming alive until the ninth. It reminded me of two games from earlier this season:

June 1: The Dodgers were down 3-0 to the Diamondbacks entering the ninth inning, then rallied for two runs, but fell short, losing 3-2. The next night, the Dodgers were able to mount a successful late comeback, turning an eighth inning 5-1 deficit into a 6-5 win. The Dodgers won four of their next five, including two straight walk-offs by Andre Ethier.
August 3: The Dodgers were down 6-2 to the Brewers entering the ninth inning, but mounted a furious rally that came up just short when Manny Ramirez popped out with the bases loaded to end the 6-5 loss. The next night, the Dodgers scored 17 runs.

Charlie Haeger gets the start for the Dodgers today, his first road start as a Dodger. Haeger has performed well so far, pitching seven innings in each of his first two Dodger starts. The last pitcher to start his Dodger career with three straight starts of seven innings or more was another knuckleballer, Tom Candiotti, who had four straight in 1992.

In the Pacific Coast League this season, Haeger made 13 starts on the road, and was 6-5 with a 2.44 ERA.

Jonathan Broxton's next game finished will trigger a $50,000 incentive bonus in his contract. He has finished 44 games so far this year, and can earn a total of $200,000 if he finishes 60 games on the season.

Matt Maloney, a 25-year old rookie who struggled in three starts earlier this season, has been recalled from Louisville to make today's start against the Dodgers. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports that Maloney has been working on some new pitches:

One of the main reasons for the demotion was an inability to keep the ball in the park. He had six homers over 17 2/3 innings -- two long balls in each start.

"I didn't have a pitch that I consistently have them hit the ball on the ground with," Maloney said. "The home runs are what hurt me when I was up here before. That's why I made a big effort to go back to figure out the sinker me and [pitching coach] Dick Pole were working on. It's worked really well for me down there."

Laynce Nix sat out yesterday for the Reds with a sore neck, but in this report by John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Dusty Baker had a truly baffling quote:

"He had a collision with someone a couple years ago, and never had an MRI until today."

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