SB Nation - Josh Roenicke

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

Red Reposter - Sorry I Haven't Done One of These in a While, but My Hamstring Has Been Sore

Charlie Scrabbles — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:15:11 -0000

by Keith Srakocic - AP

Brandon Phillips has been one of the best defenders in the league over the past 3 seasons, and he's looked mighty handsome doing it.

View full size photo »

The Fay has more Q's and A's
"Q, from CSA: If the Reds are so poor, why did they spend $10 million on a new scoreboard and another $10 million on the worst available manager? Not to mention all that money on Scot Rolen (that was a good deal BTW). Not to mention Willy Tavaras.

A: The hope is that the new scoreboard will pay for itself through increased advertising at the stadium. Which is a nice theory, but you’ve got to draw fans to keep rates up. Only 26 managers in the history of the game have won more games that Dusty Baker. Given the injuries and payroll, 78-84 was pretty good this year. Rolen’s salary was paid by Toronto this year. And they made a huge mistake with Taveras. But he only made $2 million this year."

I have no idea how this injury excuse has gotten any traction as a plausible reason why this team failed this past season. I would like someone, anyone, to make a good argument that this team lost because of injuries. Please.
RedsFest tickets went on sale yesterday
$15 for adults and $7 for the kiddos. "Over 50 current and former Reds players are expected to attend including Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Bronson Arroyo, Dusty Baker and 2010 Reds Hall of Fame inductees Chris Sabo and Pedro Borbon. In honor of the recent RR Monday Morning Quiz, a special 20th anniversary tribute to the 1990 World Series Champions will include Sabo, Joe Oliver, Eric Davis, Ron Oester, Hal Morris, skipper Lou Piniella and many more."
Hall o' Famer Hal says Dick Pole was a victim of soap opera-level revenge and acrimony
"One problem with the Reds is that CEO Bob Castellini listens to too many people and some of them have axes to grind or let personalities sway their opinions. One of them got Castellini’s ear about Pole and Pole was axed (pole-axed?). A manager and a coach is only as good as his players/pitchers and I saw improvement from the Reds pitching staff under Pole."
Project Prospect is ranking the best prospects by position in the minors
and Todd Frazier is the top 2B. They say he lacks the range to be a great defender, but his bat could more than carry him. I think his bat is about average as a LF, but if he can hold his own as a 2B he could be something special. If only our incumbent 2B could play SS...

Mike Leake and Zach Stewart (cough) make the pitcher's list, Yonder Alonso is 2nd on the 1B list, and Juan Francisco is 13th on the 3B list. Hat tip to RML.
The Pirates traded for displaced Rays 2B Akinori Iwamura
or as Tim McCarver knows him, "Aka...Akamura". Iwamura was hurt most of this season and lost his job to Ben Zobrist. This deal reminds me a lot of the Reds' deal for Scott Rolen, accept that I like this for the Buccos. Neither team is close to playoff contention, both of the players are in the last year of their contract, and both players are still valuable relative to their contracts.

The key differences are that the Pirates only gave up Jesse Chavez, a 26-year-old relief prospect (Josh Roenicke?), and they have plenty of payroll space left after adding his contract (his option, which the Pirates still have to pick up, is worth $4.85 mil, which will make him the highest-paid Pirate!!). Iwamura isnt going to make the difference for the Pirates, but he'll help them take the next step to respectability.

And when you consider that Iwamura is basically the same player as Freddy Sanchez, whom they traded for a good pitching prospect in Tim Alderson, and is signed for 1/3 the money that Sanchez is, then this is really quite a move for the Pirates. I cant believe I'm saying this, but I'm kinda jealous.
FanGraphs is working on putting together 3-year UZR leaderboards and loserboards
and Brandon Phillips narrowly misses making the "best" list, falling just outside the top 5. We'll see the top and bottom 5's over the next few days.
It’s the Hardball Times 2010 Annual
I've never bought the THT Annual, but I'm thinking about it this year. It's $21.95, so it's pretty reasonably priced. Has anyone picked up one of these? Is it a good investment?

The Scott Rolen Deal: No Thank You

Charlie — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 23:56:20 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

2 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Scott Rolen, center, is greeted by teammates in the dugout after he scored in the eighth inning of the baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009. Rolen scored twice and drove in three runs as the Reds won 10-4. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

Browse more photos »

Forgive me for being a bit late to comment on this article by Dejan Kovacevic, but I just saw it.

Ten Ways to Reboot the Pirates in 2010: 1. Spend.

Sign Rick Ankiel or any free agent -- Nick Johnson? Mark DeRosa? Xavier Nady for a second tour? -- who might bring some pop to the lineup.

Make a trade for a quality player, regardless of cost.

The Pirates' current $23 million roster -- which projects to $28 million with raises -- has to represent the low point. There is no rule that says a team building from within must be a catastrophe at the major league level until the prospects arrive. Provided that acquisitions do not block key players -- signing, say, a center fielder would be absurd -- the only reason not to fill other holes would be to create more leftover money.

When Cincinnati recently traded for Scott Rolen and his $11 million salary after being miles out of contention, many in baseball scoffed. But the Reds went 25-11 with Rolen, and their many youngsters might have their development aided by his presence.

I'm not opposed to spending a bit of money on a player like Nick Johnson. But, as ever, it amazes me how little people have learned from the Pirates' recent experience.

First: the idea that the Rolen trade represents a good model for the Pirates is just beyond belief. Rolen has had a great career and all, but he has now whined his way out of three of the four organizations he's played for. (In fairness, his manager in Philadelphia, Larry Bowa, was hated by everyone, but still.) The idea that he, of all people, would be the sort of veteran player whose mere "presence" aids the development of youngsters is stunning to me. The Reds' ERA did improve after he arrived, and his superior defense probably did help out with that somewhat, but that's hardly a reason to make crazy trades for veterans if you otherwise should be recharging.

If Kovacevic is simply saying that Rolen helped the Reds with his play on the field helped the Reds' young pitchers, that's one thing. But his use of the word "presence" suggests that that's not what he's saying, espec ially since he didn't mention the pitching staff.

Has there ever been any sort of empirical data that shows that the addition of veteran players helps young players? I don't know of one, and while I can't prove it isn't true, it's fair to note that every team has veterans, and so it's quite easy to credit a veteran for his "presence" every time a team plays surprisingly well.

The flipside is that, if you want to, you can blame them and their "presence" when things go wrong. Of course, that would seem mean-spirited and stupid, wouldn't it? Of course it would. And yet it's every bit as logical as suggesting that the mere "presence" of veterans helps.

The best we can do if we're looking at the effect a player has is to look at how he played on the field. Mere "presence" doesn't seem to matter much, and Pirates fans should know that as well as anybody. How many more wins did Matt Morris' "presence" bring? How about Doug Mientkiewicz's? Or Jose Mesa's? Or Jeromy Burnitz's? Or Joe Randa's? Or Eric Hinske's? Just the other day Kovacevic implied that Hinske was a part of the "awful atmosphere" that surrounded the Pirates in 2009. And yet he was one of the Bucs' biggest veteran additions the previous offseason.

To be fair, I'm sure Kovacevic doesn't believe we should acquire these veterans indiscriminately; perhaps he means that there are some veterans who add something with their presence, and others who don't. But then why focus on a well-known whiner like Rolen (who, after all, pretty much did exactly what Hinske did by begging out of Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Toronto) or an alleged PED user like Rick Ankiel? Or, for that matter, a guy like Nady who's probably a perfectly nice guy but who has already spent a considerable amount of time in PNC Park, apparently without dropping any of that magic veteran pixie dust on the place?

There may, of course, be times that veteran "presence" does help. But even if that's true, no one ever seems to know what they are beforehand. The gift of veteran "presence" is one that only seems to appear after the fact, and then it appears completely randomly, such that a perpetual malcontent like Rolen all of a sudden becomes a savior for no other reasons than that 1) his new team happened to play well following a trade and 2) he's old. In Pittsburgh, we've had veteran after veteran, and none of them have brought anything extra to the team other than what they've done on the field. At least nothing we've seen. So why should we make this same mistake again?

The Rolen trade, in particular, was insane. The Reds traded a very good starting pitching prospect (Zach Stewart), a potentially functional young reliever (Josh Roenicke) and a very talented, if extremely frustrating, young third baseman (Edwin Encarnacion) to get him. In terms of value, this would be a little like if the Pirates traded Rudy Owens, Eric Hacker and Lastings Milledge--for a player who's old and expensive and will be gone after 2010. A potential crowd-pleaser, perhaps, but utterly bonkers in terms of the goals of the franchise.

So when someone says that the Pirates, who are two years from contending in the best of circumstances, should "trade for a quality player, regardless of cost" and points to the Scott Rolen deal as an example of what the Bucs should do, I have to ask: Really?

Kovacevic does have a point that there's no reason the Pirates shouldn't sign a veteran or two this offseason--if the right opportunity presents itself. But jeez, let's at least agree on some some basic tenets here. The point of having youngsters on a 62-win team is not to trade for aging free-agents-to-be. And veteran "presence" isn't going to matter without talent to back it up--just ask the 2007 Pirates. Or the 2006 Pirates. Or the 2004 Pirates. And so on.

Bluebird Banter Answers the Dallas Morning News' Questions

hugo — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:33:28 -0000

Hi everyone. So, Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News sent me some questions in anticipation of the Jays' 4-game, 3-day series with the Rangers and, given the team's recent play, I gritted my teeth and answered them:

DMN: The Rangers last saw the Blue Jays in June. Give us an update on the club since then.

Hugo: Do I have to? Things haven't been pretty for the Jays since June. July saw the pitching stay strong but the hitting falter, and August saw some better hitting but very poor pitching, with even ace Roy Halladay struggling. The team's situational hitting has been very poor and its record in one-run games has been a disaster.

In terms of personnel, Roy Halladay is still a Jay, as the world saw with the drama that played out around the trade deadline. B.J. Ryan and Alex Rios, however, are not. The Jays ate Ryan's salary as a sunk cost but the Chicago White Sox opted to assume the six years remaining on Rios' salary. The Jays also traded Scott Rolen to the Cincinnati Reds for Edwin Encarnacion (who is presently nursing an injured hamstring) and two young pitchers, Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke. Losing Rios and Rolen has hurt the Jays' defense, which in turn has hurt the Jays' pitching.

About the only bright spot since June has been the return of Travis Snider over the past two weeks. He hasn't lit up the league, but is hitting much better than he did in April before being returned to the minors.

DMN: Roy Halladay has not been as dominant since the trade deadline as he has the rest of the season. Is any of that hangover from not getting traded or is he just in a mini-slump based on the opponents he’s faced and that he was due for some minor bump in the road?

Hugo: Halladay isn't the type to let not getting traded affect his mental or physical preparation for games or his in-game focus, so I think it's just one of those things. He's been facing very good AL East offensive teams that have seen a ridiculous amount of Doc over the past many years, and every so often, teams like that are going to figure him out a little bit. Doc's walk and strikeou numbers have been as good as ever, so some of it is undoubtedly bad luck. It's actually refreshing in a way to be reminded that even Halladay is only human. That said, when Doc isn't himself and the Jays are struggling, it can be doubly painful because the team really depends on Doc to be the stopper.

DMN: Who has been the biggest surprise of the season for Toronto? The biggest disappointment?

Hugo: Designated hitter/left fielder Adam Lind and second baseman Aaron Hill have been fantastic stories. Both are young home-grown players that have shown potential in the past but really took it to the next level this season. But for me the biggest surprises have been shortstop Marco Scutaro and young lefthanded pitcher Ricky Romero. In Scutaro's case, I just can't remember a player his age undergoing such a drastic change in his game. He's been a fantastic leadoff hitter who has been impossible to keep off the bases, and played a splendid defensive shorstop as well. As for Romero, he had been the butt of a joke at General Manager J.P. Ricciardi's expense for so long people forgot that he was a first-round pick for a reason. Recently he's been struggling with his command, but unlike some of the other young Jays' pitchers, he won't need to be shut down to preserve his arm, so he should have a chance to turn it around in September.

As for the biggest disappointment, it's clearly Vernon Wells. Wells spent about a third of last season hurt, but he performed very well when he was in the lineup, at least at the plate. This season, though has been a disaster with poor play on both sides of the ball. He just hasn't been able to get going at all at the plate, and his defense has fallen off considerably from where it was. The fans have turned on him as well and home games can't be fun for Wells right now. I feel bad for him as his salary really shouldn't be held against him and he is clearly giving it his all, but the bottom line is that he has been one of the poorer everyday players in the league this season and a mid-market team like the Jays can't afford to carry a player like that, let alone at such an astronomical salary.

DMN: How has the bullpen performed the last month or so? What can Rangers fans expect in the late innings of close games?

Hugo: August hasn't been a good month for the bullpen. Scott Downs returned from the re-aggravation of a toe injury that had sidelined him earlier this season, but he hasn't gotten much work in since then and has been shaky when he has pitched. After a splendid July, Brandon League has had an ugly August and has generally been a bit of a mystery all season - he has more strikeouts than innings pitched and very few walks, numbers that should suggest dominance, especially considering his hard sinker known for inducing groundballs. Yet his ERA (presently 5.31) hasn't reflected that at all. Lefthanded batters have been the main culprit. Lefty Jesse Carlson and righty Jason Frasor have been the best relief pitchers recently, and I'd look for them late in close games at the moment.

DMN: Who are a few players to watch in this series?

Hugo: Travis Snider is the one to watch at the moment, at least from the Jays' fans perspective. The young slugger has struggled to make contact since being returned to the big club (he has struck out in over a third of his 46 plate appearances) but that has come from working the count more (8 walks in 12 games) as well as from his struggles to make contact so it's not all bad. Snider is only hitting .198 since returning, but he has gotten on base at a .348 clip and hit three home runs. The bottom line is that it's only been 12 games and he is still very much a work in progress, but one worth watching. Adam Lind is making a bid at a 30-home run season (he's got 25 right now), which would be a lovely milestone for the young hitter, while Hill has already reached that (he hit no. 31 on Friday).

DMN: Can you give us a scouting report on the starters the Rangers will face in this 4-game series packed into 3 days?

Hugo: Sure. Brett Cecil will pitch in tonight's game and it could well be his last start as he has about maxed out his innings between the majors and the minors this season. Cecil, like the Jays, was on his way to a very nice rookie season and had a spectacular July but August has not been kind. The young Marylander has really struggled with his command and has given up 2 home runs in each of his last two starts to boot. Cecil, a lefthander, has a good sinking fastball that he uses to induce groundballs, a very good slider, and a changeup and curve that have eluded him at times this season.

In Tuesday's doubleheader, Brian Tallet will start the first game. Tallet, essentially a career reliever prior to this season, stepped into the Jays' rotation early this season when it was decimated by injuries and did a credible job. This will be his first start since being returned to the bullpen in late July. Tallet is not a hard-thrower and relies on movement on his pitches and a good changeup.

Marc Rzepczynski (that's "Zep-Chin-Ski") will start the other game on Tuesday. Zep (as his teammates called him) is, like Cecil, a 2007 draftee and his emergence this season has been a nice surprise for the Jays. He's been quite good in his 10 starts, showing excellent movement on his pitches and good strikeout and groundball numbers. Like Cecil, he leans heavily on his fastball-slider combo and will occasionally struggle with his control.

Scott Richmond will pitch on Wednesday. Richmond is a great story as a 29-year old rookie who was pitching for the Edmonton Cracker Cats of the Independed League just a couple of seasons ago. Richmond started off the season fantastically but, like the Jays, has fallen on hard times recently. He was out for a few weeks with some inflammation in his throwing arm and hasn't been the same since returning. Richmond has shown a solid ability to miss bats (97 Ks in 106 IP) and limit walks, but he can occasionally get hit hard. He uses the traditional four pitches and is most effective when he is mixing them all in.

DMN: How do Blue Jays fans feel about the Rangers? Do they expect the team to make this wild card race interesting in the final month of the season?

Hugo: I hope they do. It's always fun to see a good wild-card race. Though I suppose there is some vested interest among Jays' fans in the wild card winner coming from the AL East, since Jays fans like to complain about how difficult the division is, a complaint that has a lot of truth.

DMN: Anything else Rangers fans should know about the Blue Jays?

Hugo: The past two months have really taken its toll on the psyche of the team's fans. Even after the Jays' hot start, fans expected the second half to be tough with so many games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, but things have been even rougher than anticipated with the team essentially winning 1/3 of their games for the past two months. The Jays have been bad over that period, but they haven't been nearly this bad either.

Doc and Jays lose.

Tom Dakers — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 04:11:34 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Can't win them all Doc. AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Blue Jays 1 Red Sox 6

This is going to be short, because I have a headache and well writing about losses isn't much fun.

Roy Halladay wasn't great and the Red Sox were. Doc only went 5 innings, only the 3rd time this year he has pitched less than 7 innings, the other two times being his last start before and his first start after his trip to the DL. 8 hits, 5 runs, 2 walks and 2 homers isn't a Doc type start though the 7 strikeouts was. Josh Roenicke pitched 3 great innings only marred by a walk.

Offensively we only got 6 hits, 2 by Vernon Wells, who drove in our only run. Travis Snider was 0 for 3 with 2 k's. He'll have games like this.

No Jays of the Day today. Wells came closest with a .096, our only batter with a positive WPA. He and Roenicke get honorable mention. Suckage are Doc (-.246) and Edwin Encarnacion (-.153).

Tomorrow we have an afternoon game to finish the series with the Red Sox. Brett Cecil (5-1, 4.35) goes against Jon Lester (9-7, 3.71). Cito, I'm begging you now, even though we are facing a lefty don't bat Millar cleanup.

Concerning the Blue Jays - Part II: Trade Talk

Travis G — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 17:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

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Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter was kind enough to answer a few questions about the state of the Blue Jays:

1. Why wasn't Roy Halladay traded? Was Ricciardi asking for too much? Will (when?) he be traded before the end of 2010? Any chance Toronto re-signs him?

As much as I never believe anything JP says (not that I think there is anything wrong with a GM lying to the media) it seems like this time he was telling the truth, he said that he wouldn't trade Doc unless he was overwhelmed with the offer. I figured at the last minute he'd panic and take less. I am kind of proud that he stuck to his guns.

I think it is likely he will be traded this winter, the good part about trading him in the winter is more teams would be in competition to get him. I think, at the deadline, the Phillies were the only team that was really actively trying to get him, in the winter we wouldn't be limited to team that are in the race at the moment. It is also possible that the Jays keep him for next season and see how things go. We've had several injured starters, hopefully next year things will be more settled and perhaps we can make a run.

I think it is possible he re-signs, his wife is very active in team charities and has been interviewed a lot and she clearly likes it here. The interim team CEO Paul Beeston said that the team would have the money to re-sign him and that he would talk to Halladay himself about it. I think Doc would like to win, if he thinks it could happen in Toronto he'd be happy, if he doesn't then he'd go somewhere else.

UPDATE 6:40 - Alex Rios was finally traded to the Chicago White Sox, and by traded, I mean Chicago gave nothing in return (via MLBTR).

2. What do you think of the other deals the Jays made?

The only real move was the Rolen trade. Scott Rolen was a personal favorite of mine to watch, but I can be realistic and see that Rolen's trade value will never be higher. Considering that he wanted to be traded closer to his home, I think we did well in the trade. Edwin Encarnacion doesn't excite me that much, but he does have some power, but the two young pitchers we got look good. Josh Roenicke has a great arm in the pen and looks like he could be a closer. Zach Stewart is the most interesting player in the trade. He has pitched in A, AA and AAA this year and has been great at each level, compiling a 1.63 ERA total. Until this year he was being used as a reliever but has been a starter this year. They have put him back in the pen to limit his innings. In a year or two he could be one of our best starters.

3. Will the Jays trade Alex Rios, or let his new team take his contract (or just keep him)?

They won't let anyone just take his contract, but I could see a trade being worked out. I do question whether it is a good time to trade him, I hate trading guys when their value is at its lowest. If you listen to the sports call in shows, people are always asking ‘why don't they trade ‘lousy player X'?' Well, it is because other teams aren't stupid, it is hard to get value for guys having bad seasons. Rios is having a terrible season, but he isn't that bad of a player. I'm guessing he stays with the team.

Thanks, Tom. I'm afraid we're going to have to re-live all the Halladay talk in just a few months time, much like Johan Santana a couple years ago.

Farmers Only: State of the Farm (8.6)

BK — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 23:01:27 -0000

We haven't taken an overview of the minors in a while, so with the off day, I figured we'd check in with a mega-column. With 6 teams playing now, there's a lot to cover. Let's get started by looking at the teams.

LOUISVILLE BATS (AAA) - The Bats are 63-47 and are commanding the IL West right now, with a 9.5 game lead over Toledo. Kevin Barker is currently 2nd in the IL in OPS at .929, 2nd in HR with 20, and is 4th in OBP at .377. Drew Stubbs leads the league in stolen bases with 42, only being caught 9 times. On the pitching side, Homer Bailey and Matt Maloney are currently 6th and 7th in ERA at 2.71 and 2.72, and shutout specialist Justin Lehr is 9th with a 3.31 ERA while leading the league in wins with 13. Maloney's 97 strikeouts are good for 6th in the league so far, and Lehr's 1.06 WHIP has him 4th in the league. As a team, Louisville's pitching staff is 3rd in the league in ERA and 4th in strikeouts.
CAROLINA MUDCATS (AA) - After going 37-32 in the first half, finishing 2nd (1 game back), the Mudcats are 15-25 so far in the second half, 7 games back from Chattanooga and tied for 4th place. Despite promotions, Carolina still has the top players in AVG, SLG, and OPS on the offensive side (Chris Heisey, .347/.426/.572/.998) and the league leader in ERA by more than a run (Travis Wood, 9-3 with a 1.21 ERA; second in the league is 2.99). After his night last night, Juan Francisco now leads the SL in home runs with 22 and RBI with 71. Wood also still leads the league in strikeouts with 103, despite being in AAA for the last two weeks.
SARASOTA REDS (A+) - After finishing dead last in the FSL South in the first half at 28-40, their 17-22 record in the second half so far is 4 games back and good for 4th in the 6 team division. This is normally where I'd list the S-Reds who are among the league leaders in offensive categories, but Sarasota doesn't have any. Jeremy Horst is 8th in the league in ERA at 3.25. Their .234 team average is good for worst in the league, and their OPS is an abysmal .623. Their 315 team RBI is almost 40 behind the second to last place team.
DAYTON DRAGONS (A) - Dayton finished 4th in the MWL East in the first half with a 28-42 record, and are currently 18-20 in the second half, which is good for 4th place in the division despite being 11.5 games back from a white-hot Fort Wayne team. Byron Wiley is 4th in the league in OPS at .883, 7th in OBP at .388, and 3rd in SLG at .495. Cody Puckett is 5th in that category at .481, and Dave Sappelt is 9th in SB with 26 despite getting promoted. Puckett's also 4th in the league in HR with 16. Matt Fairel is 9th in ERA at 2.93 and 4th in strikeouts with 107.
BILLINGS MUSTANGS (R) - Despite being a short-season team, Billings' season is split in two as well. They were last place at 12-26 in the first half, and have kicked off the second half 1-2. Mariekson Gregorius is 10th in the league in hitting at .342 and 10th in OBP at .408. Shea Snowden and Leonardo Astorga are 10th and 11th in ERA at 4.17 and 4.53, although there are only 26 pitchers with enough innings to qualify. Billings is similiar to Dayton in that they can't hit, with a .251/.322/.350/.672 line as a team so far this year. Their 4.81 team ERA is second to last in the league.
GCL REDS (R) - The G-Reds are 16-18 and 4 games back in the GCL South. Henry Rodriguez is leading the league in hitting at .355, and leadoff hitter Theodis Bowe is hitting .313, which is good for 10th. Bowe is also 3rd in SB with 14. Jacob Wiley is tied for 3rd in saves with 6.

A closer look at the players after the jump.

Red Reporter Top 15

Before the season, you guys came up with a list of the top 15 prospects in the Reds system. Here's an update on how they're doing.

Yonder Alonso 1B (Carolina)
After starting the season on a tear in Sarasota, Yonder made it to Carolina before breaking the hamate bone in his hand. In 16 games in AA, Yonder hit .246/.309/.466. He's on a rehab stint with the GCL team right now, so I'd expect him to finish the season in Carolina when he's ready to go.
Neftali Soto 3B (Sarasota)
Soto's having a disappointing season so far for the S-Reds. His OBP is still only .284 and his plate discipline has been lacking. After a strong May, he had a disappointing June and July, only hitting .204/.237/.301 in July, but has started August right, so hopefully that gets him going.
Todd Frazier 2B (Carolina)
Todd's having a great season in AA, and should earn a promotion soon. He recently made the switch to 2B after playing 3B and LF for most of the year. Why he hasn't been called up to Louisville yet is beyond me.
Drew Stubbs CF (Louisville)
Speaking of guys who should be called up, Stubbs' OBP is at .368 and he has 42 stolen bases to lead his league. That wouldn't look good in the leadoff spot, Dusty?
Chris Valaika SS (Louisville)
An injury plagued season has Valaika dropping past Zack Cozart on prospect boards at his position. Chris is currently at .197/.237/.299 in 244 AB.
Juan Francisco 3B (Carolina)
El Nino Destructor is raking lately, but still has the same problems that have plagued him his whole career. Mainly, his errors at 3B and his lack of plate discipline (88 K to 19 BB this year).
Daryl Thompson RHSP (Louisville)
Thompson's been on the shelf since the end of June, his 3rd DL trip this year. His 6.59 ERA could be better, and I expect it to be next year, but this year's a lost cause for Daryl.
Kyle Lotzkar LHSP
Lotzkar has been on the DL all year with a broken elbow, and doesn't look to be coming back soon. Hopefully he'll pitch this year, but I'm not optimistic.
Chris Dickerson OF (Cincinnati)
He's batting .259 in 85 games for the Reds. I still don't remember why he's on this list.
Josh Roenicke RHRP (Toronto)
Sigh. He got traded in the Rolen deal.
Devin Mesoraco C (Sarasota)
He's at .225/.309/.379 right now, but all reports coming out of Sarasota say that he's improving behind the plate. Hopefully that bat will come around, but he's still young.
Daniel Dorn OF (Louisville)
He's having a solid year, at .256/.323/.426. Are we still calling him overrated? I don't see him cracking this outfield any time soon.
Yorman Rodriguez OF (Billings)
Stormin' Yorman is killin' Billings so far, to the tune of a .884 OPS. He's still only 16.
Zach Stewart RHSP (Toronto)
God fucking dammit. Moving on.
Juan Duran DH (GCL)
Duran's year has been really disappointing, with a line of .180/.235/.270.

Top 15 Pitchers

The way we're going to do this, is look at 10 pitchers from full season ball, and look at the top 5 from short season. We're looking at guys with a minimum of 45 IP from full season teams and 10 IP from short season. The stats provided here are combined from every level through the 2009 season.

Logan Ondrusek RHRP (Sarasota, Carolina, Louisville) - 4-1, 1.28 ERA, 38 K, 20 BB
Travis Wood LHSP (Carolina, Louisville) - 10-4, 1.44 ERA, 116 K, 46 BB
Enerio Del Rosario RHRP (Sarasota, Carolina, Louisville) - 2-1, 1.96 ERA, 43 K, 6 BB
Joseph Krebs LHRP (Carolina, Sarasota) - 3-2, 2.19 ERA, 44 K, 20 BB
Mace Thurman LHRP (Sarasota, Dayton) - 3-0, 2.10 ERA, 73 K, 21 BB
Jeff Kennard RHRP (Louisville) - 3-1, 2.42 ERA, 48 K, 18 BB
Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette LHRP (Carolina, Sarasota) - 2-2, 2.51 ERA, 45 K, 25 BB
Steven Otterness LHRP (Sarasota, Dayton) - 3-0, 2.76 ERA, 34 K, 25 BB
Matt Maloney LHSP (Louisville) - 7-8, 2.72 ERA, 97 K, 16 BB
Jordan Hotchkiss RHRP (Dayton) - 1-4, 2.75 ERA, 47 K, 15 BB

Harold Johnson RHSP (GCL) - 0-1, 1.06 ERA, 16 K, 8 BB
Ezequiel Infante LHSP (Dayton, Billings) - 2-0, 1.29 ERA, 31 K, 4 BB
Tyler Cline RHSP (GCL) - 2-0, 1.73 ERA, 26 K, 9 BB
Donnie Joseph LHRP (Dayton, Billings) - 2-1, 1.89 ERA, 20 K, 5 BB
Mark Serrano RHSP (Dayton, Billings) - 1-0, 1.85 ERA, 28 K, 7 BB

Top 15 Hitters

We'll do the same thing here. Minimum of 200 AB for full season, 50 for short season.

Kevin Barker 1B (Louisville) - .929 OPS, .284/.377/.552, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 1 SB
Chris Heisey CF (Louisville, Carolina) - .927 OPS, .331/.395/.534, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 16 SB
Darnell McDonald RF (Louisville) - .883 OPS, .317/.349/.534, 7 HR, 33 RBI, 6 SB
Byron Wiley RF (Dayton) - .883 OPS, .275/.388/.495, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 5 SB
Todd Frazier 2B (Carolina) - .860 OPS, .307/.362/.499, 12 HR, 58 RBI, 7 SB
Yonder Alonso 1B (Carolina, Sarasota, GCL) - .823 OPS, .284/.357/.466, 8 HR, 45 RBI, 1 SB
Juan Francisco 3B (Carolina) - .809 OPS, .273/.310/.499, 22 HR, 71 RBI, 6 SB
Cody Puckett 2B (Sarasota, Dayton) - .793 OPS, .263/.333/.461, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 14 SB
Zack Cozart SS (Carolina) - .785 OPS, .270/.366/.419, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 9 SB
Chris Denove C (Louisville, Carolina) - .779 OPS, .265/.349/.430, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 0 SB

Josh Fellhauer OF (Dayton) - .926 OPS, .310/.379/.548, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 4 SB
Henry Rodriguez 3B (GCL) - .803 OPS, .355/.384/.419, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 7 SB
Thomas Nurre 1B (Billings) - .783 OPS, .286/.338/.444, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB
Theodis Bowe LF (GCL) - .775 OPS, .313/.387/.388, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 16 SB
Alexis Oliveras OF (Dayton, Billings) - .753 OPS, .292/.337/.416, 3 HR, 26 RBI, 10 SB

20 More Prospects To Watch

Ben Jukich LHSP (Louisville) - 3-0, 1.62 ERA in 5 starts in July
Matt Klinker RHSP (Louisville) - 2.95 ERA in AA, now in AAA after starting in Sarasota
Sam LeCure RHSP (Louisville) - 7-0, 2.38 ERA in last 9 starts
Tom Cochran LHSP (Carolina) - 2.77 ERA in 5 starts in July
Jeremy Horst LHSP (Carolina) - 3.25 ERA in Sarasota, now in AA
Josh Beal RHRP (Sarasota) - 1.72 ERA in 17 1/3 innings in July
J.C. Sulbaran RHSP (Dayton) - 3.56 ERA in last 4 starts, 10.0 K/9 this season
Tzu-Kai Chiu LHRP (Billings) - 0.95 ERA in 19 innings in the GCL before moving to Billings
Matteo Pizziconi LHRP (GCL) - 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 innings
Nathan Driessen LHRP (GCL) - 2.25 ERA in 24 innings
Danny Dorn OF (Louisville) - 1.024 OPS in June. .896 since the All-Star Break
Wes Bankston 1B (Louisville) - 1.045 OPS in August so far
Kyle Day DH (Sarasota) - .333/.400/.481 in July
Dave Sappelt OF (Sarasota) - 38 total SB this season
Yen-Wen Kuo 2B (Dayton) - .375 AVG in August so far
Kevin Coddington C (Dayton) - .303/.344/.371 in July
Mariekson Gregorius SS (Billings) - .342/.408/.378 since being moved to Billings (27 games)
Yorman Rodriguez CF (Billings) - .268/.348/.537 so far in Billings, is only 16 years old
Sean Conner RF (Billings) - 4 RBI in 5 August games
Danny Vicioso C (GCL) - .341/.372/.561 in 17 games

So what do you guys think? Anybody here catch your eye?

Yankees 8, Jays 4

hugo — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 11:08:31 -0000

Tough one last night for our heroes.

On the Mound: Marc Rzepczynski pitched great until the 7th inning, when he ran into some trouble and was lifted. Things really unraveled, and Zep ended up with 4 runs allowed over his 6 innings, though he did strike out 7 and walk just one. He wasn't the problem.

At the Plate: Vernon Wells and Alex Rios had RBI singles in the 1st inning. Adam Lind and Marco Scutaro added solo home runs. We had our baserunners, but didn't cash them.

From the Pen: Bad showing from our relief corps last night. Josh Roenicke entered in relief of Zep in the 7th and gave up 3 walks and 2 hits. Jesse Carlson gave up another run in the 8th and Brian Tallet surrendered a Damon home run in the 9th. Yuck.

Cold Comfort from the Farm: Travis Snider had a double. J.P. Arencibia hit a home run, his 12th of the season. Casey Janssen pitched a perfect inning, striking out 1. Though David Purcey got absolutely shellacked.

Lind was the only one with JoTD numbers. The Jays are off today before taking on Baltimore this weekend.

Jays Jump Out Early, Take Rubber Game: Jays 7, Oakland 2

hugo — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 00:07:33 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

4 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays' Alex Rios swings for a three-run double off Oakland Athletics' Vin Mazzaro in the first inning of a baseball game Sunday, Aug. 2, 2009, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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The Jays beat Oakland this afternoon, 7-2, to take the series, with a strong team effort.

On the Mound: Ricky Romero had some trouble locating his secondary pitches today, but he got some strikeouts with his fastball and battled, though admittedly against a less than stellar Oakland offense. With a better offensive team today, the game could have looked different. That said, Romero did a very nice job, going 7 strong and striking out 5 while walking 1 and giving up 8 hits - 5 singles and 3 doubles - and both Oakland runs. He did more than enough to put the Jays in the driver's seat today.

At the Plate: The Jays jumped out first thing - right in the top of the first inning. Jose Bautista (1-4 with a walk) drew the leadoff walk and Aaron Hill rocketed a Vin Mazzaro pitch over the left field fence to give Toronto the quick lead. Adam Lind, Lyle Overbay, and Vernon Wells all reached base and Alex Rios cashed them all with a 3-run, bases-loaded double before Mazzaro ever recorded an out. The Jays had plenty of chances for the rest of the game, but scored just two runs - one on an Adam Lind 2-strike RBI single he pushed through the infield, and one on a Rod Barajas line-drive home run. New guy Edwin Encarnacion (0-4, 2Ks) looked like he was pressing just a bit at the plate.

From the Bullpen: New guy, Josh Roenicke, however, showed no jitters in his Jays debut. Roenicke came in and got Kurt Suzuki to ground out, then struck out Scott Hairston, using his mid-90s fastball to set up his cutter/slider (he grips it like a cutter but it moves like a slider), a very good-looking pitch with a lot of movement. He lost the patient Jack Cust on a 3-2 count, but came back to strike out Tommy Everidge on the same pitch. He looks like a credible late-inning option to me. Not to be outdone, Jeremy Accardo pitched the ninth and looked extremely sharp, striking out Bobby Crosby, getting Mark Ellis to pop up, and and retiring Cliff Pennington on a groundout for a 1-2-3 ninth.

Overall, it was great to see the Jays win the road series, something they hadn't done since mid-June. Ricky Romero did a nice job and put himself atop all AL Rookies in both wins (10) and strikeouts (87). And although I don't have an "in the field" section (maybe I should), John McDonald (1-4 with a line-drive double) had a sparkling defensive play to set up an inning-ending double play and looked very at home at shortstop the entire game.

Jays of the day: Aaron Hill, Ricky Romero, and Adam Lind. Honourable mention to Josh Roenicke for an impressive debut and especially to Alex Rios, who dragged down what looked like a sure JotD performance with a couple of pop ups with runners in scoring position and less than two outs. No suckage awards, which is the way it should be. The Jays have the day off tomorrow before starting a 2-game midweek series at home against the New York Yankees, which will begin 14 straight games against AL East opponents. Buckle up, B^3 ers.

Meet Your New Jays: Josh Roenicke

hugo — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 17:52:00 -0000

So yesterday we took a look at Edwin Encarnacion, the young third baseman acquired in the Scott Rolen trade. Today, we'll take a look at relief pitcher Josh Roenicke, who will turn 27 on Tuesday.

Roenicke was born in Baltimore, Maryland in 1982, but grew up in Nevada City, California, where he was a three-sport athlete in high school. Roenicke attended UCLA for both football and baseball, but soon concentrated full-time on baseball, where he was primarily a centre fielder but also did a little pitching out of the bullpen (like, 15 or so innings in his entire college career little), showing a mid-90s fastball. Josh was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds, as a pitcher, in the 10th round of the 2006 draft.

Roenicke, a hard-throwing righty, worked his way through the Reds' minor league system, showing good strikeout stuff (10.9 K/9 IP throughout his career in the minors) but somewhat erratic control (3.8 BB/9, fluctuating wildly, as is not uncommon for relievers due to the low number of overall innings thrown). Roenicke made his major-league debut in September of last season and got into 5 games that month.

Josh started 2009 in AAA Louisville but soon made his way up to the Reds, and he has done a very nice job in his 11 big-league appearances this season, with 14 Ks and 4 walks over 13 1/3 innings. He replaced Jeremy Accardo in the Jays' bullpen and considers himself a potential closer but is open-minded about his role. With a mid- to high-90s fastball and quality slider, there's no reason to disagree. Though the Jays are taking a wait-and-see approach with Roenicke right now, they are open to the possibility of him closing at some point.

Roenicke has baseball in his genes: his younger brother Jason (a 2008 draftee) pitches for the Jays' single-A affiliate Lansing Lugnuts, his father was a major-league outfielder who was drafted, in the first round, by the Expos, and had a long career with the Orioles (hence both Roenicke boys being born in Baltimore) and his uncle Ron had a 11-year major-league career with a number of teams.

Josh throws a hard fastball that sits in the mid 90s and creeps up into the high 90s. He also throws a cut fastball that moves a lot more than a typical cutter, causing some to call it a slider. His mechanics are generally considered sound and he isn't much of a groundballer, generally getting as many outs in the air as on the ground.

Welcome to the Jays, Josh.