SB Nation - Michel Hernandez

xBABIP Adjusted Lines for Rays Batters in 2009

Andy Hellicksonstine — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 11:00:25 -0000

Thanks to B Ray for posting the link to Chris Dutton's xBABIP calculator. I wanted to take a look at which guys posted an actual BABIP that was close to or way off from their xBABIP. As usual, this led me down some other interesting roads to get an idea of which guys over/under performed their expected lines. First off, here is a link to the google.doc HERE and a link to the .xls download: xBABIP Corrected Statistics

Let's start by looking at the xBABIP vs. Actual BABIP, sorted by highest xBABIP, for all Rays with >=30 AB:

Player

xBABIP

BABIP

0.356
0.338
0.327
0.327
0.324
0.324
0.323
0.322
0.318
0.317
0.307
0.306
0.302
0.299
0.296
0.292
0.292
0.291

0.346
0.312
0.330
0.368
0.294
0.355
0.267
0.319
0.274
0.304
0.348
0.319
0.276
0.259
0.320
0.253
0.233
0.136

More fun stuff continues, after the jump.

It makes sense that the guys that you think of as speed guys have the higher xBABIP's, while the inverse is true for some of the slower guys. I think you can get a good idea of guys that seemed overly lucky (Bartlett, Iwamura) and those that were unlucky (Pena, Navarro, Upton) just by giving the list a quick perusal. To extend on this, we can assume that the difference between the xBABIP and BABIP times AB should give an idea of how many hits a guy was robbed of or lucked into:

Player

Diff

Dioner Navarro

Carlos Pena

B.J. Upton

Willy Aybar

Pat Burrell

Gabe Gross

Gabe Kapler

Carl Crawford

Michel Hernandez

Matt Joyce

Evan Longoria

Fernando Perez

Joe Dillon

Gregg Zaun

Ben Zobrist

Reid Brignac

Akinori Iwamura

Jason Bartlett

376
471
560
296
412
282
205
606
99
32
584
34
30
94
501
90
231
500

-0.059
-0.039
-0.026
-0.044
-0.026
-0.030
-0.040
-0.010
-0.056
-0.155
-0.003
-0.013
0.024
0.013
0.003
0.041
0.031
0.041

-22
-18
-15
-13
-11
-8
-8
-6
-6
-5
-2
0
1
1
2
4
7
21

In this case, a negative number implies that the batter was robbed of that many hits, conversely, a positive number shows how many the batter lucked into. It looks like a lot more of our guys were unlucky than lucky at first glance. So what does this all mean to some of the basic statistics? First off, here are the players' actual slash line statistics from 2009:

Player

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

Ben Zobrist

Carlos Pena

Evan Longoria

Jason Bartlett

Carl Crawford

Gregg Zaun

Joe Dillon

Matt Joyce

Gabe Kapler

Willy Aybar

Reid Brignac

Akinori Iwamura

B.J. Upton

Pat Burrell

Gabe Gross

Michel Hernandez

Dioner Navarro

Fernando Perez

0.297	0.405	0.543	0.948
0.227	0.356	0.537	0.893
0.281	0.364	0.526	0.890
0.320	0.389	0.490	0.879
0.305	0.364	0.452	0.816
0.287	0.323	0.489	0.812
0.300	0.400	0.400	0.800
0.188	0.270	0.500	0.770
0.239	0.329	0.439	0.768
0.253	0.331	0.416	0.747
0.278	0.301	0.444	0.745
0.290	0.355	0.390	0.745
0.241	0.313	0.373	0.686
0.221	0.315	0.367	0.682
0.227	0.326	0.355	0.681
0.242	0.292	0.323	0.615
0.218	0.261	0.322	0.583
0.206	0.206	0.206	0.412

If we assume that every one of the hits that a player was robbed or lucky on was a single, then we can adjust these to show what each batter should have looked like:

Player

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

Ben Zobrist

Carlos Pena

Evan Longoria

Jason Bartlett

Carl Crawford

Gregg Zaun

Joe Dillon

Matt Joyce

Gabe Kapler

Willy Aybar

Reid Brignac

Akinori Iwamura

B.J. Upton

Pat Burrell

Gabe Gross

Michel Hernandez

Dioner Navarro

Fernando Perez

0.294	0.402	0.540	0.942
0.266	0.388	0.576	0.965
0.284	0.366	0.529	0.895
0.279	0.353	0.449	0.802
0.315	0.373	0.462	0.835
0.274	0.311	0.476	0.787
0.276	0.379	0.376	0.755
0.343	0.404	0.655	1.059
0.279	0.364	0.479	0.843
0.297	0.370	0.460	0.830
0.237	0.261	0.403	0.665
0.259	0.328	0.359	0.686
0.267	0.336	0.399	0.736
0.247	0.338	0.393	0.730
0.257	0.352	0.385	0.737
0.298	0.345	0.379	0.724
0.277	0.316	0.381	0.697
0.219	0.219	0.219	0.438

This can be a lot to try to sort through, so lets just take a look at actual wOBA (AwOBA) vs. expected wOBA (XwOBA):

Player

XwOBA

AwOBA

Matt Joyce

Ben Zobrist

Carlos Pena

Evan Longoria

Carl Crawford

Gabe Kapler

Willy Aybar

Joe Dillon

Jason Bartlett

Gregg Zaun

Gabe Gross

B.J. Upton

Pat Burrell

Michel Hernandez

Akinori Iwamura

Dioner Navarro

Reid Brignac

Fernando Perez

0.440
0.398
0.389
0.366
0.363
0.359
0.357
0.347
0.345
0.337
0.328
0.325
0.321
0.321
0.307
0.300
0.284
0.191

0.319
0.400
0.360
0.364
0.355
0.328
0.322
0.366
0.377
0.349
0.304
0.304
0.301
0.274
0.331
0.251
0.320
0.180

Bear in mind, this is the original formula for wOBA that doesn't include stolen base numbers. I have omitted ROE as well.

Guys that appear to benefit quite a bit are Carlos Pena, Gabe Kapler, Willy Aybar, Gabe Gross, B.J. Upton, Pat Burrell, and Dioner Navarro. Guys that seem like they were quite a bit lucky are Jason Bartlett, Gregg Zaun (includes time with Tampa Bay and Baltimore), and Akinori Iwamura. Weird that 2 of those guys are now gone. Also, check out Matty Joyce doing a Pujols! IF ONLY WE ACTUALLY PLAYED HIM11!!!!111 To correct for asinine statements like these that are sure to come, we can look at wRAA, which will factor in PA as well as the league average wOBA of .321:

Player

XwRAA

AwRAA

Carlos Pena

Ben Zobrist

Evan Longoria

Carl Crawford

Jason Bartlett

Willy Aybar

Gabe Kapler

Matt Joyce

Gabe Gross

Gregg Zaun

Pat Burrell

B.J. Upton

Joe Dillon

Michel Hernandez

Reid Brignac

Akinori Iwamura

Fernando Perez

Dioner Navarro

33.9
40.0
26.3
24.8
11.6
10.5
7.9
3.8
1.9
1.4
0.1
2.1
0.8
0.0
-3.0
-3.3
-3.9
-7.5

19.6
41.2
24.9
20.1
27.7
0.3
1.5
-0.1
-4.7
2.4
-8.3
-9.3
1.4
-4.3
-0.1
2.3
-4.3
-24.9

Suddenly Navi does not look as bad, once we've stripped some of the unluckiness out of his balls in play. Same can be said for Pena, who now looks like a stud, contributing 4.25 wins with his bat alone. Another reoccurring theme is the Jason Bartlett normalization. It suddenly appears that a hot-shot rookie that plays substantially better defense could replicate those runs. Lastly, we can just look at the difference of the wRAA's as a kind of continuum:

via i273.photobucket.com

Click to embiggen

(Updated XwRAA & Continuum at 11:14 on 1/8/10)

Something that I didn't touch on throughout this was the fact that guys like Crawford, Longoria, and Zobrist a.k.a. THE CORE, were not relatively lucky either way. They had genuinely good to great seasons according to this. If this statistic has any predictive value then we can look forward to more of the same next year. Also, I just realized that I forgot to include Kelly Shoppach, so I will post some of his relevant items in the comments. Haters wanna hate?

Here are the Kelly Shoppach lines, I apologize for not doing this in the main stuff, but I'm not creating this post all over again.

xBABIP	0.328
BABIP	0.286
Diff	-0.042
#H	-11
aAVG	0.214
aOBP	0.335
aSLG	0.399
aOPS	0.735
awOBA	0.327
awRAA	1.6
eAVG	0.256
eOBP	0.370
eSLG	0.441
eOPS	0.811
ewOBA	0.358
ewRAA	10.5
DiffwRAA	8.9

As you can see, Shopp was quite a bit unlucky in 2009. Hopefully, he has a big bounce-back as a 0.811 OPS out of the catcher spot could really put this team over the top.

Worst New York Yankees of the Decade

Ed Valentine — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:00:17 -0000

We had some fun the other day debating the Pinstripe Alley Yankee Team of the Decade. Good points were raised on several controversial choices.

Along the way, some of you asked for the 'Worst Yankees of the Decade' team. I thought that would be fun, so I decided to take a shot at it.

Looking at the rosters over the years, though, I found it almost impossible to narrow it down to a single team. Instead, position-by-position, here are some of the most forgettable -- and regrettable -- Yankees of the past decade.

I am sure there are many other names that could or should be added to this list. But, this should get you started strolling down the wrong side of Yankee Memory Lane.

C -- Alberto Castillo, Chris Turner, Chris Widger, Todd Greene, Joe Oliver, Bobby Estelalla, Wil Nieves, Sal Fasano, Michel Hernandez,

1B -- Travis Lee (.105 in 7 games)

2B -- Tony Womack

SS -- Erick Almonte,

3B -- Wilson Betemit, Drew Henson,

INF -- Alex Arias, Felix Escalona (.000, 5 games in 2004), Mark Bellhorn (.118, 9 games, 2005), Cody Ransom, Angel Berroa, Morgan Ensberg

OF -- Kenny Lofton, Matt Lawton (.125, 21 games, 2005), Mike Vento, Justin Christian,

DH -- Jose Canseco

SP -- Kevin Brown, Tim Redding (54.00 ERA in 1 game, 2005), Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa, Jaret Wright (Carl Pavano BEFORE Pavano), Christian Parker (one 2001 start, got hurt, never pitched again), Jeff Weaver, Darrell May, Sidney Ponson (multiple times),

RP -- Alex Graman (19.80 in 3 games, 2004) & 13.50 in 2 games, 2005), Colter Bean, Bret Prinz, Sean Henn, Gabe White, Billy Traber, Anthony Claggett (33.75 ERA in 2 games).

I am ashamed to admit so many guys like this have worn the pinstripes during the course of the last decade. Yuck!

The Rookies Who Aren't

TheJay — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:00:16 -0000

Determining rookie status:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

The first part of the definition of a rookie in Major League Baseball is straightforward. Once a player reaches 131 at bats or 50 1/3 innings pitched, he's no longer a rookie. The second part is a little trickier. After all, service time numbers are hard to find. They generally come out once each year, in team media guides. Add in the fact that you have to subtract time in the major leagues after September 1st and on the disabled list and it's even harder to figure out who is truly a rookie.

It has already been mentioned this offseason that Mat Gamel eclipsed 45 days of service time before September. Gamel was recalled from Nashville on May 14th and optioned back on July 20th, giving him 67 days on the active roster during the "period of 25-player limit." So, even though he sits at 130 career at bats, the same number Scott Rolen had going into his Rookie of the Year season, Gamel cannot win the Rookie of the Year award (though that might not stop him from getting votes).

Gamel isn't the only such little-used non-rookie in the Brewers organization. Raise your hand if you realized Hernan Iribarren has 48 days of major league service time, all before September 1. Iribarren spent 20 days on the major league roster in April and June 2008, picking up 14 at bats. He spent 28 days in the majors in 2009, batting a mere 13 times. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict he wasn't going to win the 2010 Rookie of the Year Award anyway.

New Brewer George Kottaras also enters 2010 off the list of rookie players. He spent all of 2009 in the majors with the Red Sox, playing in 45 games with 93 at bats. Though he spent the month of August on the disabled list, he gave up his 2010 rookie status in mid-May.

Gamel, Iribarren, and Kottaras are not the only little-used rookies. Follow the jump for a list of all such position players to appear in the majors in 2008 or 2009. Please note it is lengthy and full of guys who have no chance at winning an award anyway. I will post a list of pitchers in the next few days.

Non-Rookies with 130 or fewer career AB:

Mat Gamel, 130 career AB
Joaquin Arias, 129 AB
Argenis Reyes, 127 AB
Jose Morales, 122 AB
Ivan Ochoa*, 120 AB
Michel Hernandez, 118 AB
Curtis Thigpen*, 118 AB
Ramiro Pena, 115 AB
Josh Whitesell, 115 AB
Luke Carlin, 112 AB
Chris Gimenez, 111 AB
Tyler Greene, 108 AB
Sam Fuld, 103 AB
Reid Brignac, 100 AB
Francisco Cervelli, 99 AB
George Kottaras, 98 AB
Freddy Guzman, 95 AB
Robinson Cancel, 94 AB
Guillermo Rodriguez, 92 AB
Steve Holm, 91 AB
Justin Ruggiano*, 90 AB
Nathan Haynes*, 89 AB
Diory Hernandez, 85 AB
Don Kelly, 83 AB
Dane Sardinha, 80 AB
Luis Maza*, 79 AB
Paul Hoover, 78 AB
Edwin Maysonet, 76 AB
Dusty Ryan, 70 AB
Clint Sammons, 68 AB
Tug Hulett, 67 AB
Drew Sutton, 66 AB
J.R. House*, 60 AB
John Mayberry, 57 AB
Gregorio Petit, 54 AB
Brian Myrow*, 51 AB
Chris Stewart*, 48 AB
Justin Christian*, 40 AB
Travis Denker*, 37 AB
Gustavo Molina*, 34 AB
Hernan Iribarren, 27 AB
Ryan Budde, 23 AB

* - last appeared in the majors in 2008

I warned you. If I missed anyone or included someone who should not be on the list, let me know in the comments.

Back Stopped: A Look at the Tampa Bay Rays Lack of Catching Depth

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 04:00:11 -0000

Is Luke Bailey the Rays catcher of the future? via a.espncdn.com

View full size photo »

The Rays struggles at the catcher position have been well, if not over, documented on this site. With the news that Luke Bailey may be signed, sealed, and delivered by Monday signing deadline, the Rays could finally have a big time catching prospect in the organization. Although Bailey was drafted in the 4^th round of this year's draft, he was considered by many as the top prep catching prospect before his Tommy John surgery. Of course taking a high school catcher is a risk in itself, and one coming off a major injury is an even bigger risk, but most scouts predict that Bailey is worth the gamble. He can hit for average and power. He has a great arm and enough athleticism that some project he could play second or third base, however, he shows the skills needed to stick at catcher. On top of all that, the kid can run a little bit too.

We know what we have at the major leagues. Even if Dioner Navarro rebounds to have a decent season (not likely) he is still in his arbitration years. Gregg Zaun is our savior this year, but is what he is and that's an old catcher, who really should be a backup. I guess we can throw Michel Hernandez in the same group with Zaun except Hernandez should be the backup's backup. Shawn Riggans has played one game for the Rays this year and recently suffered yet another injury after returning to the Durham Bulls. I like Riggans, and I'm sure the seams from Fernando Rodney's fastball are still imprinted on his chest, but if he's still on the 40-man roster next year I'll be shocked.

This leaves us with the minor leaguers...

Player	Age	Level	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	ISO
Jaso	25	AAA	0.248	0.342	0.350	0.320	0.101
Albernaz	26	AAA	0.188	0.264	0.256	0.245	0.068
Ashley	25	AA	0.212	0.331	0.314	0.311	0.102
		A+	0.236	0.311	0.340	0.306	0.104
Spring	24	AA	0.190	0.264	0.351	0.285	0.161
Lobaton	24	MLB	0.176	0.176	0.176	0.158	0.000
		AAA	0.241	0.292	0.353	0.29	0.113
		AA	0.423	0.484	0.769	0.532	0.346
Lopez	24	A+	0.174	0.236	0.243	0.222	0.070
Jefferies	21	A	0.282	0.349	0.389	0.345	0.107
McCormick	22	A+	0.224	0.297	0.448	0.336	0.224
		A	0.165	0.272	0.252	0.259	0.232

You'll notice I left of Hudson Valley and Princeton. Both are not full season squads and neither have any real prospects at the position. Besides, I think the names above show how desperate this organization is in the need for a catcher. Offensively, what has plagued the Rays major league team at the backstop position is an organization wide epidemic. Unfortunately, defensive metrics for the most part are unavailable in the minors so we're relying on reputation.

I thought John Jaso might challenge the backup spot this year, and possibly contend for a starting job in 2010, but his 2009 has been lack luster. The power saw from him last year has not been there this year and his defense is suspect to say the least. He has increased his walk total, but that's more of a moral victory than anything to be excited over. Behind him for most of the season has been Craig Albernaz, who is organization filler as is the case with a few other names on the list.

Nevin Ashley has the most at-bats in AA for a catcher, but again the production has been terrible. The 6^th round pick in 2006, has dropped off each season since his impressive 2006 campaign and at age at 25 he finds himself back in single-A. The reason he is there, other than his production, is the addition of Jose Labaton.

Labaton had a brief stint with the Padres big league club after a below average start in Triple-A. However, since joining the Rays, Labaton has been on fire. He has five extra base hits in eight games after hitting just nine in 39 games for the Padres Triple-A affiliate. Labaton is 24, and since he is on the 40 man roster, there is a chance we could see him in September. He reminds me a lot of Dioner Navarro which doesn't mean much for his future. Matt Spring is his backup in Montgomery and again...organization filler.

The catcher position for class A+ Charlotte has been a revolving door. As mentioned above, Nevin Ashley has gotten his fair share of playing time there as well as Christian Lopez. Lopez, 24, is more filler. Mike McCormick has played for the stone crabs, but is currently with class A Bowling Green. Even though he's just 22 he's looking like filler of the future.

The lone bright spot on the list is Jake Jefferies, the starter for the Hot Rods. At age 21, Jefferies is the best thing going behind the plate in the Rays system. He's more of a contact/gaps hitter than a home-run threat at this point with 14 doubles and eight home runs. His plate discipline has been impressive and he has more walks (34) than strikeouts (32). His defense is still a work in progress; however, his footwork is decent. His arm behind the plate remains a question mark. He's not a top prospect by any means, but he's the best we've got; that is until Luke Bailey officially signs.

Monday's Frosty Mug

Kyle Lobner — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 13:57:25 -0000

Some things to read instead of hanging out with The Least Interesting Man in the World.

Coming off another series loss that dropped their playoff chances to 4.9%, the Brewers have a day off today to travel home and get ready to resume play tomorrow. When they get there, they'll be joined by new Brewer David Weathers, who was acquired from the Reds for a PTBNL yesterday. Some notes on the move:

Jesus Colome was the 20th Brewer pitcher to appear in a game over the weekend, meaning Weathers will likely be the 21st sometime this week. Before the season, 88% of readers in the Over/Under contest said the Brewers would use more than 19.5 pitchers this season. Congratulations to all of you.
Ken Macha suggested Weathers will be used as an occasional fill in for Todd Coffey in the setup man role.
Weathers and his family don't sound too excited about leaving Cincinnati.
This move could be more than a rental: Weathers has a team option for next season. Exercising that option would be a nice way to get rid of $3.7 million without clogging a toilet.

Another day, another story about Jason Kendall's ineptitude: Mike Rivera got into a game on Saturday and responded by hitting a three run double as part of a night that saw him get on base three times. The Bucky Channel makes the case once again that Kendall should be sitting and Rivera should be playing more.

With that said, Kendall was hit by two pitches yesterday, the 240th and 241st of his career. Plunk Everyone has a bunch of statistical nuggets related to that.

Entering play tomorrow, Mike Cameron has been worth 2.8 Wins Above Replacement on the season, third most on the team. Should the Brewers make an offer to bring him back for next season? The Junkball Blues makes the case for it. Baseball Digest Daily says Cameron is the third best defensive outfielder in the NL.

In the minors:

Fifth round pick D'Vontrey Richardson signed his contract Friday night and is expected to report to Arizona to spend a few weeks with the Rookie Brewers before their season concludes.
Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff continues to look at the average age of minor league teams, and finds the Huntsville Stars are one of the oldest teams in AA. The average probably falls a bit if you remove Vinny Rottino, who is a Dodger now.

Around baseball:

Astros: Placed Doug Brocail on the DL with a strained shoulder.
A's: Released Jason Giambi.
Cubs: Placed Carlos Zambrano on the DL with back spasms.
Dodgers: Placed Jason Schmidt on the DL with shoulder trouble.
Mets: Acquired outfielder Jason Dubois from the Cubs.
Phillies: Released infielder Pablo Ozuna.
Pirates: Placed reliever Donnie Veal on the DL with a sprained index finger.
Rangers: Designated Vicente Padilla for assignment.
Rays: Acquired Gregg Zaun from the Orioles for a PTBNL or cash, claimed Russ Springer off waivers from the A's, and designated Joe Dillon, R.J. Swindle, reliever Jonathan Meloan and catcher Michel Hernandez for assignment.
Red Sox: Designated reliever Enrique Gonzalez and John Smoltz for assignment and placed Jed Lowrie on the DL with forearm irritation.
Yankees: Designated Josh Towers for assignment.

Yesterday's Brewer game wasn't the only one over the weekend impacted by poor umpiring. As is becoming customary, here's your Umpiring Roundup from the weekend:

Ed Rapuano ejected Shane Victorino for complaining about a strike call in center field. (h/t Al)
Lance Barksdale ejected Padres manager Bud Black after missing a call at home plate Saturday.
Jerry Crawford ejected D-Backs manager A.J. Hinch after missing a call at first base.

This morning's Mug is probably a little late because I got hooked on this story and ended up reading the whole thing: Gary Smith of Sports Illustrated has an incredible profile of Mpho "Gift" Ngoepe, the South African shortstop in the Pirates organization, and the incredible path he's traveling in an attempt to become the first African-born major leaguer. (h/t Bucs Dugout)

The economy may suck, but if you're the official manufacturer of baseballs for MLB, you'll probably always have a job. MLB Daily Dish estimates the major leagues will go through about 220,000 balls this season.

Playing a Timber Rattlers game at Miller Park seemed to work pretty well for all involved, so maybe the Brewers should try this: The Red Sox have an annual Futures at Fenway doubleheader, featuring games with two of the team's affiliates. I'd pay to see that.

On this day in 1987, Paul Molitor went 2-for-4 with two walks, extending his hit streak to 25 games as the Brewers beat the Rangers 4-3 in 12 innings.

Happy birthday today to Chuckie Carr, a 1996 Brewer and first-ballot entry into the "Don't Be That Guy" Hall of Fame, who turns 42 today.

Oh, and please, for your sake and ours, stop dressing up your cat.

Drink up.

Reflecting On Michel Hernandez

R.J. Anderson — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 18:24:11 -0000

As an analyst, Michel Hernandez means little to me. He's no longer the best option to start, and his upside is ... well he has no upside. Going to Durham seems pointless for him since John Jaso and Shawn Riggans are there, and neither is going to sit on the bench for a journeyman. Still, when I woke up this morning and saw the news confirmed, I was a bit sad. Not because this hurts the Rays, but, well, I've grown to root for Hernandez.

Nothing has come easy for this guy. He signed as an amateur free agent from Cuba back in 1998. As a 19-year-old he struggled in short-season ball, but the Yankees decided to promote him anyways and in 1999 he played for the Tampa Yankees. He never hit well, but the Yankees kept advancing him. He reached Double-A in 2001 and Triple-A in 2002 despite a career OPS of .602 in High-A. More of the same in Double-A, hitting .243/.297/.333 but since he was such a great organizational soldier - someone who fills the minor league roster holes without whining or costing much - he kept getting promotions.

In 2003, at the age of 24, he had his best minor league season. Hitting .280/.367/.372 and getting a cup of coffee in the majors, even recording his first career hit in the bigs. After the year the Yankees waived him, the Red Sox claimed him, then months later waived him again leaving the Phillies to claim him. He repeated Triple-A again, this time hitting .254/.328/.371. Once again he switched organizations and this time with St. Louis hit only .274/.336/.337 before being released in early 2007. As a 28-year-old minor league free agent catcher with no ostensible skills, Hernandez joined an independent league team; the Somerset Patriots of the Atlantic League.

This is the point where Hernandez career takes a turn. After 25 games and a .342/.490/.539 line, the Rays came calling and signed him. I actually remember posting the news of his signing somewhere on this site. I was young and stupid at the time, and thought maybe he would help the Rays one day. After a relatively decent run in Durham that year he signed with the Pirates in 2008 and soldiered on.

Then, with the Rays heading towards the playoffs and adding a layer of depth to the catching depths, Hernandez was dealt back to Tampa Bay on August 31^st, 2008 for cash. Making his Rays debut two weeks later, Hernandez saw his role increase as Shawn Riggans got hurt.

Hernandez was on the AL East clinching team, the team that beat Chicago and Boston, and the team that lost to Philadelphia, and while he never appeared in a game, he still was there. This year he spent months in the majors thanks to - what else - another Riggans injury. Prior to this season Hernandez had 20 career plate appearances, he topped that number in four of the five months he was on board this season.

I don't know what his future holds. Maybe he latches on somewhere, maybe an injury has him back with the Rays. Who knows? I'm still going to miss Hernandez a little though. All these years, all the bus trips, false hopes, and nights where he contemplated moving on, they all lead up to the past year where he could play a role on a championship team. His dream was realized but ultimately shattered. Hernandez probably won't sulk or pout; he'll pack his bags and hope for another shot down the line.

Thus is the life of an organizational soldier.

Rays Officially Add Gregg Zaun; Michel Hernandez DFA

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 11:48:25 -0000

After last night's game, the Rays DFA Michel Hernandez as expected. Hernandez, who will turn 31 next week, was hitting .242/.292/.323 in 107 PAs. Despite the poor offensive numbers, on most nights it seemed that Hernandez was an upgrade of Dioner Navarro. As we continue to quanitify the defense of a catcher and his handling of the pitching staff, Hernandez was looking more and more like the better option. Now that the we are ready to bring our Z-Game, Gregg Zaun gives us the best option going forward.The Rays and Hernandez both expressed interest in furthering Hernandez's employment in the organization if he clears waivers.

On a conference call yesterday, Andrew Friedman said multiple times that Zaun would get plenty of playing time especially against right handed pitchers. In 148 PA against righties, Zaun is hitting .252/.358/.417. For comparision, Dioner Navarro is hitting just .191/.227/.277 in 200 PA against them. While both catchers are switch hitters, Navi is the better hitter against left handers. Against south-paws, Navi is hitting .289/.297/.335 with 10 extra base hits in 97 PAs. Meanwhile Zaun has hit just .220/.347/.244 with just one XBH in 49 PA. It looks like we have the makings of an old fashion platoon on our hands which should greatly improve the production from the backstop position.

One question... Are you a Zaunbie yet?

The Catcher Position

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 18:02:29 -0000

Michel Hernandez or Dioner Navarro? At this point it doesn't matter.

Neither provides much in the way of offense. ZIPS has the pair basically equal (Navarro with a four point edge) and they profile as similar hitters anyways. Navarro has the prospect lineage, the ability to switch hit, and at least one successful season behind him, but his plate approach has worsened with the leitmotif being an inability to lay off pitches outside of the strike zone. Hernandez is the same package without the niftiness and with a track record of being a mediocre minor leaguer.

Multiple times we've looked to see whether Hernandez handles the staff better and found traces but nothing definitive. At this point, if the Rays feel Hernandez truly offers better play defensively, or at least somewhat better play, then there is zero reason to play Navarro every day.

I'm not saying simply thinking a catcher is a great defender is reason enough to play him. Instead this is like the chemistry thing. If you have two players with completely equal quantifiable skills, but one is part of the local ministry and the other could be a werewolf, well, you probably go with the saint - unless you need some theatrics in which you go with Carl Everett.

Seriously, the .004 projected difference is worth 2 runs over 600 plate appearances. I'm not a Hernandez fan, but I don't think I can argue that Navarro should play every day.

Someone on the waiver wire has to be cheap and better than these two. Right?

Ryan Doumit: A Possible Alternative To Victor Martinez?

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 11:00:13 -0000

After yesterday's trade of Cliff Lee to the Philadephia Philles, and the news that the Rays have bowed out of the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, the Tampa Bay rumor mill has taken a significant hit. Not that I thought the Rays would actually acquire one of the frontline starters, but it was fun to imagine. While it seems the Rays are out of the starting pitching arms race, the Victor Martinez rumors remain.

I heard on the radio yesterday that one exec said if the Indians move one of the two, they almost certainly will move the other. The Red Sox are believed to be the favorite for Martinez, but the Rays have been linked for a few weeks as well. Acquiring a catcher with Martinez's offensive skills would provide quite the upgrade to the Rays especially with the current back stops of Dioner Navarro and Michel Hernandez hitting .224/.252/.327 and .231/.271/.297 respectively. If the Red Sox do succeed in their efforts to land V-Mart, the Rays may not be shutout of an offensive upgrade at catcher.

Let me start this by saying I have heard no rumblings, grumblings, rumors or whispers of the sort, but am merely suggesting that Andrew Friedman give a call to Neal Huntington and acquire about the availability of catcher Ryan Doumit. Again, this is just me rosterbating while I still can before the deadline, and I'm not even sure the Pirates are actively trying to move Doumit, but given their recent moves, I think it's worth a phone call at least. I know the two have each others number (remember Jason Bay Is a Ray!).

The Pirates have been unloading their players even before the deadline was the hot topic of the league. They've already traded Nate McClouth, Adam LaRoche and yesterday moved Jack Wilson, Ian Snell and Freddy Sanchez. Doumit would be a logic choice as next on the chopping block.

The Pirates are also running out of room for first base/catcher types. They acquired Jeff Clement, who technically is still a catcher. They have Garrett Jones at first base with Steve Pearce roaming in the organization. Don't forget the Pirates also drafted a catcher, Tony Sanchez, with their top pick in the 2009 draft. That's a lot of players vying for playing time between two positions. With so many available options, and Doumit making the most money of the group, logic would say he could be had.

So how would Doumit benefit the Rays lineup? First off, he is not Victor Martinez. Martinez is a much better and more proven hitter, but he would also cost more in terms of a trade and contract. Second off, he is better than Dioner Navarro. Doumit hasn't looked great in his 27 games, but his career numbers are that of an above average hitting catcher .276/.335/.457, .340 wOBA. The one flaw that sticks out to me is his inability to walk, but we are comparing him to Dioner Navarro here so that doesn't really go against Doumit.

Doumit's contract is also pretty affordable especially compared to that of Martinez. He is making $2.05 million in 2009, so the Rays would owe him less than million dollars this year. After this year, he is guaranteed two more years at a total of $9.15 million dollars. He is due to make $3.1 million dollars in 2010 and $5.1 million in 2011. He also has two team options for 2012 and 2013 but at a combined $15.5 million those seem unlikely to be picked up given the fact that he will over the age of 30 when those options are up. If Martinez were to be traded, his 2010 option jumps to $7.5 million with another possible million dollars worth of incentives. The Rays could get two years of Doumit for a little more than the same price as one year of Martinez. Again, Martinez is the better player, but over the course 2007 and 2008, Doumit actually had a slightly higher WAR and is two years younger.

What does all this mean? Probably nothing unless Andrew Friedman, James Click or Dan Feinstein wake up this morning, read this and say "Hey, great idea." However, a move between the two teams makes sense to me, it's the trade deadline and a million scenarios are being thrown around and we are a blog, what good do we know anyway. What the Rays would give up in getting Doumit, I have no idea, but I'm sure Andrew and Neal could figure it out.

Navarro vs. Hernandez: More Analysis Behind the Dish

FreeZorilla — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 16:00:13 -0000

Over the past few weeks, DRB has looked at how the starting pitching rotation has fared with Dioner Navarro behind the plate compared to when Michel Hernandez is catching. The first piece Evaluating the Ray's Starting Pitching Performance Across Catchers took a look at each pitcher's FIP components, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 with each catcher. Yesterday R.J. Anderson took a look at The Michel Hernandez Effect on James Shields by coming up with run values. He utilized In his conclusion he stated there was clear evidence that James Shields has had better results when Michel Hernandez was catching. However, after looking at the overall pitch selection and catcher framework using Pitch F/X, Anderson derived that it most likely was do to luck.

I decided to do the same across the entire rotation. It is important to not that R.J. and I did not use the same calculation for outs. He opted for AB-Hits, while I chose to use true outs with 1/3 of an inning representing one out. While this will change the numbers, the trend across catchers should remain somewhat stable.

Follow below the jump for more

First, the run values, for a longer explanation see R.J's post

Walk: 0.32

Single: 0.48

Double: 0.78

Triple: 1.06

Home run: 1.4

Out: -0.28

Now let's take a look at the results for each pitcher-catcher battery:

	MH Starts	DN Starts	MH RV	DN RV	MH RV/St	DN RV St
Price	4	7	-0.64	8.84	-0.16	1.26
Niemann	2	17	-2.62	-7.70	-1.31	-0.45
Shields	9	13	-6.06	1.66	-0.67	0.13
Kazmir	3	11	-2.14	12.46	-0.71	1.13
Sonny	5	10	4.44	4.98	0.89	0.50
Garza	4	16	-9.6	-12.96	-2.40	-0.81
				Total	-4.37	1.76

Only Andy Sonnanstine had a lower run value per start (lower is better) with Dioner Navarro, a .39 margin. One trip across all six pitchers results in 6.13 Runs lower for Michel Hernandez which equates to over half a win. Certainly sample size issues make the difference larger, but between the Fielding Independant Pitching analysis and now the defensive dependant Run Value analysis, there seems to be a yet to be explainable difference between Navarro and Hernandez. Let's look a little further.

Here are the top 10 individual Game Scores according to Baseball-Reference.com:

Jun 3	KCR	91	Niemann	Navi
Apr 30	BOS	86	Garza	Hernandez
Jul 24	TOR	78	Garza	Hernandez
May 19	OAK	78	Shields	Hernandez
Jun 24	PHI	76	Garza	Navi
Apr 12	BAL	73	Shields	Navi
Jul 10	OAK	76	Niemann	Navi
Jun 4	KCR	70	Shields	Hernandez
Jun 20	NYM	71	Shields	Hernandez
Apr 23	SEA	69	Shields	Navi

Each catcher has caught for 5 of the top 10 game scores. However Navarro has caught in 74 games, compared to just 27 for Hernandez. What about the top 10 FIP performances?

Date	Opp	FIP	Pitcher	Catcher
May 30	MIN	0.82	Price	Hernandez
Jul 24	TOR	0.95	Garza	Hernandez
Jun 4	KCR	1.15	Shields	Hernandez
Apr 30	BOS	1.37	Garza	Hernandez
Jun 3	KCR	1.48	Niemann	Navarro
Jul 21	CHW	1.48	Niemann	Navarro
Jun 25	PHI	1.59	Sonnanstine	Navarro
Jun 20	NYM	1.82	Shields	Hernandez
Apr 21	SEA	1.90	Sonnanstine	Navarro
Jun 9	LAA	2.04	Shields	Navarro

Again 5 and 5 with Hernandez claiming the top 4.

Perhaps it is just luck. The body of evidence suggests to me that there is probably some truth to the argument that Hernandez is a better defensive staff handler than Navarro. At least enough to keep digging deeper, at why.......