SB Nation - Mike Aviles

Twins Acquire J.J. Hardy

Ben Buchanan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:50:55 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Well, there goes that option... (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

The Twins traded Carlos Gomez for the Brewers shorstop earlier today. Hardy, who had seemingly lost his starting position in Milwaukee to upcoming prospect Alcides Escobar, was being tossed around by many as a possible option for the Red Sox next year.

Other options still remain for the Red Sox to either backup Jed Lowrie or platoon with him. Alex Gonzalez would have to give up his starting position and likely have to accept a good deal less than his $6 million option to return. Old friend Alex Cora remains a free agent. And another guy coming off a down season--Mike Aviles--has had his name pop up once or twice.

Catching up with Sam Mellinger on the Royals, the Rany Ban, and an Increasingly Controversial Season

royalsreview — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 03:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Owen-Betancourt wedding bells? There is something of a precedent here... Kansas City Royals third base coach Dave Owen congratulates Willie Bloomquist after hitting a solo home run off Minnesota Twins' Glen Perkins in the fifth inning of a baseball game Saturday, May 2, 2009 in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Sam Mellinger, part of the Kansas City Star's excellent baseball team since 2006, was kind enough to answer a few questions over email this weekend from St. Louis. You can also read his work online on his Ball Star blog. In his third interview (the first two can be found here and here) with Royals Review, Sam talks about the tumultuous 2009 season, the possibility of further trades, and what we should think of Dayton Moore.

RR: I can't recall a trade that went over worse, seemingly with everyone, than the Betancourt deal. What's your take?

Mellinger: I'm not really sure what I can add that hasn't been said already by many others, even before I (finally) put something on my blog. It's a bad trade, even if Cortes doesn't make it, because Betancourt is a bad player. The move tells me the Royals think they have too many holes in other places, and that finding their (ahem) shortstop here lets them focus in other areas.

I actually don't think it's as bad as most, but what I mean by that is that I don't think it's the worst trade in the history of the world ever, and something that puts all of humanity in danger. But in this whole thing, here is the most depressing part: Betancourt makes the Royals better at the big league level.

One more thing: was just talking with someone about Betancourt, and the obvious joke about Angel Berroa finally coming back to KC. I know I'm the reporter and I'm supposed to know this, but can you tell me if Dave Owen has a daughter Betancourt can marry?

RR: Does Mike Aviles have a future with the Royals?

Mellinger: Sure he does. The question is what kind of future. The feeling I get is that this is a very "Show-Me" situation, still. Even after what he did last year, scouts have almost no respect for him. But I also don't believe the Royals are entirely sold on Alberto Callaspo, whose defense continues to wipe out much of what he's capable of offensively. I do think that the Royals -- assuming they don't add a 2B -- are willing to sort of write off Aviles' bad 2009 as a product of that injury, and put him in a gotsta-prove-it situation where he's competing with Callaspo (and maybe Bloomquist?) for the starting 2B job next year. It sure would be a cool story if he made it.

RR: The Freel acquisition was generally seen as a portent of future trades to come, but post-Betancourt, it appears that Moore is again trying to position the team for 2010. Do you think we'll see any major trades later this month?

Mellinger: I know they're trying. The feeling in the front office seems to be that the season was absolutely torpedoed by injuries. They really thought they left spring training with a team capable -- emphasize capable -- of competing in the division. They still believe that, injuries aside, which is why they won't break up the Meche-Greinke-Soria nucleus. The problem, of course (on a couple levels) is that they just don't have a lot of valuable pieces outside
the group they won't trade. Teahen could help somebody. I tend to think they should sell high on Bannister. But nobody's taking on Guillen, who has a limited no-trade clause in his contract but a full no-trade clause in his performance, and DeJesus' down year has deflated his value.

This is also a good place to mention I'm not sharing the optimism. I've written about this on the blog, but if you look at the contracts, there isn't a lot of money coming off, and what does come off will likely be canceled out by arbitration guys getting raises. That means not much payroll flexibility for a team that needs it to get better. The two options then seem to be trades, or David Glass approving an even higher payroll one year after approving a 20 percent payroll hike produced one of the most disappointing seasons ever. You're a smart guy, so I won't tell you which is more likely.

RR: You're able to interact with readers on your blog and you've taken issue with some of the persistent complaints that get voiced on blogs and message boards. Do you sense that fans (and maybe media) are growing less patient with the Royals and less willing to give them a pass? Or is it just that people have more avenues to complain?

Mellinger: Absolutely fans are growing less patient, and absolutely fans have more avenues to complain (or praise). I also think it's important to remember that while there very likely has never been a better time to be a baseball fan, with all the information and analysis and everything else out there, it's probably dangerous to read message boards and blog comments and assume it's a perfect representation of how the entire fan base thinks.

The complaints we all read on those boards and blogs are mostly very justified. The Royals bumped their win total each year under Dayton, so I do believe that earns something of a benefit of the doubt. Barring lots of forfeits by opposing teams, that streak will almost certainly end this season. That's the most important thing, and not just because of the payroll hike or new stadium. The honeymoon between Dayton and Royals fans is very clearly over, another thing I've written about on the blog.

This might be a good place to mention that I absolutely love the interaction with fans who are nice enough to read what we do. E-mail, Twitter, the comments section on my blog, message boards in other places, I think it's essential for what I try to do. And that's good because I really enjoy it. I've found the vast majority of readers to be smart, friendly, and willing to respectfully disagree.

There's also a selfish element to all this, because I think the interactions and reading blogs and message boards and everything else makes me better and what I'm trying to do.

RR: You were somewhat critical of both parties regarding the Rany Ban. Since the Royals have come in for loads of criticism already, can you talk a little about the mistakes that you believe Rany made in his post on the Royals medical staff?

Mellinger: Again, I'm not sure what I can add that I didn't put in that blog post. I probably spent more time on that post than just about any other, trying to make sure my thoughts came across clear. I think and hope each side feels I was at least fair and accurate. I talked to Rany and Swanson both, before and since, and I think whatever regrets each guy has do not change their bigger stance on the matter.

Since you're asking about Rany and not the Royals...I think Rany had an intriguing larger point that was clouded a bit by some holes in his arguments, which were made greater by focusing on the trainer (who really is low on the totem pole of decision making) and not at least making a phone call. Then after the Royals overreacted, I think Rany misrepresented what was happening with some of his wording. I think some would be surprised how often reporters and sources have big arguments on this level or higher, but they are usually handled privately.

The Royals never "banned" Rany, and were not capable or interested in canceling his get-together. I haven't talked to Rany or Swanson since all this stuff was hot, but at that time, I still felt there was a chance someone from the Royals could come down and meet Rany's group.

But, like I said, the bulk of the blame goes to the Royals.

RR: When you talk to people around baseball, is there still the old consensus that Dayton Moore can and will rebuild the Royals?

Mellinger: Yes on "can," mostly yes on "will." Some offseason moves are very clearly backfiring, and there's not a whole to add about how miserable this season is turning out. It may very well cost Trey Hillman his job.

The Titanic continues to play three hours a night on Fox Sports KC, sometimes even in HD, so it's hard to keep in mind that the most important stuff is not what's happening at the K, and not even what's going on in Omaha or Springdale, but Wilmington and Burlington. The focus of Dayton and his peeps has always been player development, and the two drafts they've been in charge of were all mostly praised.

In the short-term, things look pretty bleak around the Royals. But in the long-term, Mike Jacobs is irrelevant if Eric Hosmer turns out. Yuniesky Betancourt is irrelevant if Jeff Bianchi turns out. Mitch Maier is irrelevant if Derrick Robinson turns out. Miguel Olivo is irrelevant if one of the catchers turns out and, to be fair, Gil Meche is irrelevant if Danny Duffy/Aaron Crow/Mike Montgomery/etc DON'T turn out.

But at the very least, the disaster we're seeing at the big league level is taking the shine off the Dayton regime. They should be better than this, even with injuries, and if Trey does end up losing his job (or next season begins with everyone thinking Trey SHOULD have lost his job) it's a major hit on Dayton.

RR: Lastly, I think many people would regard you as a generally positive voice. The 2010 Royals don't figure to be too much different than this year's team, especially after the Betancourt trade. Does 2010 matter for you in terms of evaluating the current administration? Or, is this still a much longer term rebuild?

Mellinger: Yeah, and I think 2009 matters, too. I guess I should've read this question before typing my answer to that last question. My bad.

Look, the Royals are at least still telling themselves they had a division contender when they left spring training (when my prediction of 78-79 wins seemed lower than 90% of fan predictions). Lots of factors have ruined that. If Dayton and his people want to take another shot at it in 2010 with mostly the same team, I'll be interested to see what happens. And if 2010 turns out even close to as bad as 2009 is going right now, then we're all going to feel not just like we're watching Groundhog Day, but keep popping in the DVD every night after dinner.

I've been mostly positive about the bigger direction of the franchise in the last three years, because it's been getting mostly better. Next year will be Dayton's fourth full season, and he's got a big boy job, so, yeah, that's past being able to evaluate a lot of things. Full, final evaluation? Probably not.

We all like to think about Tampa going worst-to-first in a single bound, and I'm guilty of that, too, but it ignores the 10 years of losing that came before. Colorado made the jump to the World Series a few years back, but that came after six years of losing. Both those turnarounds were built on player development (the Rockies had, I believe 17 homegrown players on their WS roster) and player development almost always takes time, no matter what Albert Pujols and Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun would lead us to believe.

I'm not saying we should all wait until Dayton's been around 10 years or even six. I'm just saying that the important stuff is how his drafted and developed prospects progress, and that part of it needs time. What doesn't need as much time is to judge how the current administration put together a big league roster.

Thanks again to Sam for his time.

Mariners Dump Yuniesky Betancourt On Royals

Jack Moore — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 22:11:22 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Seattle Mariners shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt catches a fly ball hit by Tampa Bay Rays' Carl Crawford in the first inning, Tuesday, April 21, 2009, in a MLB baseball game at Safeco Field in Seattle. Defense, despite this photo, is not a strong suit for Betancourt. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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The Mariners still need a shortstop, but they did alleviate themselves of what has been nothing short of a chronic pain in the back of their organization today by trading SS Yuniesky Betancourt to the Royals for a pair of minor league pitchers, Derrick Saito and Dan Cortes. Betancourt, who defected from Cuba in 2003, signed a 4 year/2.8M contract with Seattle in 2005. Betancourt quickly made it to the big club in that same year, combining decent defense at shortstop with below average hitting for .4 WAR in 280 PAs. Betancourt's value rose the next two years to 1.7 WAR the next two seasons. Betancourt's reputation as a great fielder earned him a bigger contract before the 2008 season, worth 13.75 million dollars over four years.

Unfortunately for Mariner fans, Betancourt's reputation as a great fielder was completely unfounded. From 2005-2007, Betancourt's UZR was a whopping +0.7. Only because of the high value of the SS position (7.5 runs per 150 games) was Betancourt worth anything. As a hitter, he never put up a wOBA over .310. Then, in 2008, the other shoe dropped. Betancourt's defensive value plummeted from roughly average to almost inconceivably bad, with Betancourt recording a UZR of -12.6. Combining that with a .299 wOBA gives a player worth only .3 wins above replacement at shortstop.

Upon hearing that Betancourt had dropped some weight and increased his workout program in the offseason, there was some hope in Mariner camps regarding Betancourt's production. Regardless of what Betancourt did in the offseason, it didn't help anything. A .270 wOBA and a staggering -8.3 UZR in only 63 games at SS put Betancourt at a team-killing -0.8 wins above replacement for the season. With the structure of Betancourt's contract, the Royals will be on the hook for 11.5 million dollars through 2011, and then another 2 million if they choose to buy out his option in 2012, and another 6 million if they pick it up. Given Betancourt's history of decline and the fact that he's already (at least) 27 years old, and I find it hard to believe that Betancourt will manage to be worth anything over the next 2.5 years, much less 11.5 million dollars.

I must wonder what Betancourt's new role in Kansas City will be. Certainly, Shortstop has been a hole for the Royals since Mike Aviles went down with Tommy John surgery. Tony Pena Jr. is just as bad as Betancourt, worth -.6 WAR in only 37 games. Betancourt's fellow Seattle castoff Willie Bloomquist has been holding down the fort at SS since the injury to Aviles. Unlike the rest of his career, Bloomquist has been performing pretty well, combining average hitting with slightly below average defense to be worth 0.5 wins in 68 games. Still, Bloomquist doesn't have the fielding chops to play SS, as shown by his -4.3 UZR at SS in 145 career games at SS. Combine that with a RoS ZiPS wOBA projection of .280, and it's clear that Bloomquist isn't the answer.

The two relievers that Kansas City sent over have shown some promise in the minor leagues. Cortes, a right-hander, was KC's 3rd best prospect according to Baseball America. Cortes has had a rough go of it this year in AA, with 57 Ks to 50 BB in 83 IP, but in his career in the minors has a 425/204 K/BB in 485 IP. Derrick Saito, the other piece involved, is only in A ball but has a very solid 53/15 K/BB ratio in 53 IP and is left-handed. Certainly, these prospects are worth a flyer, especially when you're able to also rid yourself of a bad contract.

Seattle and Kansas City both still need shortstops. Ronny Cedeno will likely fill in for the Mariners, although rumors of a trade for either Jack Wilson or Freddy Sanchez have been popping up. For the Royals, it's the unenviable decision between Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist, and Tony Pena Jr. That's not a decision I'd like to make, and if you're Dayton Moore, you can't really be right at this point.

Royals Are Who We Thought They Were, Injuries and Slumps Don't Explain Much

royalsreview — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 06:05:49 -0000

With 81 games played -- I know, it amazes me too -- the Royals stand at 35-46, a bad record made a little more respectable thanks to a little two-game winning streak at the wire. As discussed last week however, while both the team and the stadium look much different three years into the Moore regime, the results have not drastically changed.

Record Through 81 Games:

2009	35-46
2008	37-44
2007	34-47
2006	27-54

There's obviously much more to be said, and as we wrap up this week and head into the All-Star Break, stay tuned for more posts breaking down the first half. The short version is this: the 2009 Royals have represented both the best and worst of what we guessed the Dayton Moore Era might look like. Using WAR (Wins Above Replacement) rankings as a good quick and dirty guide, the familiar mix of good pitching, bad hitting and defense emerges.

The WAR rankings are stark: Royals pitchers rank third in baseball, while the offense is 29th and the defense 23rd.

In this post, I'd like to say something about injuries, since the injury issue has and will continue to be used to defend peoples' employment. The Royals have suffered three major injuries: Gordon, Aviles, & Crisp.

First, without even broaching the question of how badly his situation was handled, I'm not sure how many tears should be shed for Dayton regarding Coco Crisp's injury, as Crisp has had health concerns since the middle of the decade. Acquiring him was a gamble -- perhaps a good one -- and ultimately, it didn't work out. Yea, it sucks that he got hurt. But why do you think he was available in the first place? Even then, the gap between Crisp and Maier (the last semi-ready outfielder left standing in the Royals system) has not been nearly as huge as some have supposed. The Royals lost Coco Crisp in 2009, not Carlos Beltran in 2005. They lost some OBP and perhaps a pinch of range, but we're talking about a win here, tops.

As for Aviles, his 127 PAs of .183/.208/.250 offense killed the Royals when he was available, then buried them when he was gone, ushering in a hideous and pointless continuation of the TPJ Era. (One thing about Moore, he can admit a mistake.) The rapid collapse and fall of Aviles has been a tough one, to be sure, as a borderline MVP-level player last season (seriously, look it up) has been replaced by the Bad Aviles-Luis-TPJ-St. Willie monster. Obviously, since Aviles has long been part of Moore's masterplan at short, we should give him a full pass for his bad fortune that the plan may not work out. Oh wait. As such, you can put the Aviles injury in an odd category: legitimately major, yet not quite a functioning excuse either.

Finally, we come to Gordon, who has been gone since the ninth game of the season. Gordon's injury is unlike the previous two in that it was an out-of-nowhere injury to a major part of the team's young core. Losing Gordon has been extremely problematic, as he had a reasonable chance of being the team's best overall hitter this season and a respectable fielder at third. The funny thing is, and again, I hate to point this out, that in an odd way the Gordon injury has been beneficial. Prior to the season the Royals had a vague idea of Teahen and Callaspo as a kind of platoon without a shape at second-base. Teahen, as bad as this may sound, is one of the team's better hitters, and Callaspo is/was a guy who needed to play for developmental and evaluation purposes. Gordon's injury got both of them into the lineup on a full-time basis, minimizing the offensive loss significantly. So even if you imagine a great first half from Gordon that never happened, you also need to realize that Gordon's injury allowed Callaspo's first half and a good chunk of Teahen's bounceback campaign to also take place. Depending on how you think Teahen would have done at second base, even with Callaspo's spotty record there, he's likely superior to Teahen, at least for this season, at second. So, in all, your left with two tertiary negatives: Teahen's lesser glove (debatable) at third and increased playing time for St. Willie all over the place. My own sneaking suspicion is that St. Willie was going to get his PAs no matter what however.

Yes, this is all very imprecise. In a pure baseball sense, the 2009 Royals have been hurt by injuries, especially the Mike Aviles injury. As mentioned above, I'm hesitant to write Dayton too large of a check for Aviles not working out, given that if TPJ had just hit an empty .240 last season Aviles would have never emerged. Past that, I'm not so sure the impact has been large. Certainly they haven't been torpedoed to the point that we all just throw up our hands and say "let's try this again next year, this was a great group". With this roster, you just can't say that. Sure, losing Crisp means Trey can't field the DDJ-Coco-Maier lineup that would likely have been his best option, but that was never going to happen anyway.

Furthermore, the pitching staff, save a few dubious injuries and a Soria sidelining that perhaps altered Hillman's options in four games, the hurlers have been fine. That is good luck. Other than some roster gamesmanship regarding Ponson, I don't recall a single Royal starter missing a turn due to injury. When you account for the fact that the only strength the Royals have is their starting pitching, I think that this good luck greatly mitigates what's happened to the position players.

The same thing applies to the notion of over and under-performers. Billy effing Butler is anchoring the infield defensively for goodness sakes. Miguel Olivo is having a career season. Brian Bannister has remerged. Zack Greinke is having a historically great season. Spare me the sob story that the Royals are losing because Jamey Wright had a bad month and Mike Jacobs is slumping.

Look, the bad and the good from the first half, they've happened, and nobody can do anything to change them. The Royals are out of it. Out of a bad division. 2010 matters now. Aside from Kila -- who appears to be blocked/unappreciated -- not a single top 10, or maybe even top 15 prospect in the system is at the AAA level right now.

If 2010 isn't going to be any different, then Dayton needs to do what he didn't do last deadline. He needs to sell.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:15:52 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Finally, we have a video highlight of this moment.

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Some things to read while cuddling up with Miguel Cabrera.

The Brewers finished off a good, but not great homestand with the Mets yesterday, and remain in sole possession of first place heading into a four game series in Chicago starting tonight. Seth McClung, who starts tonight, said he's looking forward to the atmosphere at Wrigley. "Atmosphere" is one of the few positive things visiting players have to say about the park.

Did you do your part this week by booing Gary Sheffield? Brian Costa of the Newark Star-Ledger discusses the reactions Sheffield receives on the road, including in Milwaukee, and quotes a blogger you might know.

Meanwhile, A Girl's View wonders why the Mets didn't just send a rookie starter to the mound this week. And Sports Rubbish has the video highlight you've all been waiting to see: Fernando Martinez' faceplant in center field.

Now that we're into July, Doug Melvin and company are intently watching the trade market for opportunities to improve the team, but working to lower expectations at the same time. Melvin also said he isn't interested in Brandon Backe.

In the minors:

Mat Gamel checked in at #13 in Project Prospect's Midseason Top 50, with Alcides Escobar nowhere to be found. Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com said he'd take Gamel's upside over fellow 3B prospect Brett Wallace.
The international signing period begins today and the Brewers are expected to make a big splash by signing Dominican OF Jose Pena. Depending on who you ask, his bonus could be anywhere from $500k to $1.5 million.
Alcides Escobar, Brendan Katin and R.J. Swindle have been named to the PCL All Star team. Escobar was also selected to the MLB Futures Game. Swindle is making his first All Star appearance at any level.
The Brewers officially announced the signings of seventh round pick Khris Davis, 8th round pick Chad Stang, 25th round pick Demetrius McKelvie and two undrafted free agents yesterday. Some of that is old news: Davis was already in the lineup for Helena a couple of days ago.

This probably isn't news to you: Jason Kendall has caught a lot of games. Among those games, there has been the occasional close win. Kendall has caught 463 saves, sixth most all time.

On Power Rankings:

Beyond the Box Score moved the Brewers up from 17th to 16th.
MLB FanHouse dropped the Brewers from sixth to seventh.

This isn't actually a Power Ranking, but it fits in with them: ESPN the Magazine just completed their Ultimate Standings for 2009 for all North American major pro sports teams, and the Brewers are ranked #7, up from #13 last year. They rank in the top 20 in six of the eight categories measured and in the top ten in Affordability (third), Stadium Experience (third) and Bang for the Buck (seventh). On the other end of the spectrum, the Bucks rank 110th out of 122 franchises.

Around the League:

Cardinals: Mark DeRosa is day to day after being diagnosed with a strained tendon in his wrist.
Cubs: Have reportedly reached a deal to acquire utility infielder Jeff Baker from the Rockies.
Dodgers: Designated outfielder Mitch Jones for assignment.
Pirates: Released outfielder Craig Monroe, who had been designated for assignment.
Rockies: Designated catcher Paul Phillips for assignment.
Royals: Shortstop Mike Aviles will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss about 12 months.
Twins: Released reliever Luis Ayala, who had been designated for assignment.

Did you have any run ins with obnoxious Met fans this week? In a poll in the Baltimore Sun, 80% of voters rated Met fans the most obnoxious in baseball. I can't imagine that, because off the top of my head I'd list the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Phillies ahead of the Mets, without question.

As I mentioned before, the international signing period begins today, and with Jose Pena reportedly off the market, the top available talent might be Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman, who reportedly has defected. Chapman is 21, throws 90+ and pitched for Cuba in the WBC.

Some days my attention span is painfully short. This morning, for example, I read this story and all I got out of it was the fact that Dr. Mark Schickendantz might be the coolest name I've ever seen.

Oh, and happy birthday to knuckleballer Steve Sparks, who pitched 202 innings for the 1995 Brewers and turns 44 today.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 25 May 2009 13:38:36 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Mitch Stetter gave up a grand slam last night. Is that enough for R.J. Swindle to take his spot in the bullpen?

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Some things to read while thawing out your sandals.

The Brewers open a three game series with the Cardinals in a few hours, and they're probably working to forget this weekend's series in Minnesota. Before they left, though, Ken Macha chatted with Anthony Witrado about last night's HBP call reversal, which led to a huge momentum shift late in the game.

In the end, though, the Brewers have no one to blame but themselves for their terrible play over the weekend. Rookie Anthony Swarzak, who held the Brewers scoreless for seven innings on Saturday, was one of nine debuting pitchers profiled at Beyond the Box Score. Swarzak's performance was impressive, but it was even more impressive to discover he did it while throwing 75% fastballs.

Casey McGehee was one of this weekend's lone bright spots. He's made five starts at second base since Rickie Weeks' injury, has reached base in all of them and is hitting .429/.500/.571 in his last 20 plate appearances. Anthony Witrado profiled him over the weekend, and the Brewer coaching staff had positive things to say.

Mike Cameron's home run yesterday was the 250th of his career, making him just the 20th player with 250 home runs and 250 stolen bases. The Brewers celebrated the accomplishment after the game.

Meanwhile, the Brewers continue to be mentioned as a possible destination for Jake Peavy. Both Jon Heyman and MLB Trade Rumors mentioned it again over the weekend. With that said, it still seems like Peavy is owed far too much money to fit into the Brewer budget.

Could Matt Cain be a target instead? As Battlekow noted over the weekend, the Giants are reportedly shopping Cain, but the organization has denied the report.

R.J. Swindle appeared in two games over the weekend. Thor Nystrom of The Official Site says Swindle was excited for the opportunity. After Mitch Stetter hit Joe Mauer and gave up a grand slam to Justin Morneau, one could make a case for Swindle staying with the team and Stetter going back down.

Speaking of bullpen arms, Driveline Mechanics takes a look at the delivery of everyone's favorite anomaly, Mark DiFelice. They see several concerning things in his motion, but wonder if the decreased workload in the bullpen and his lack of velocity might save him from injury.

How much credit for the pitching staff's success should go to new pitching coach Billy Castro? The Wisconsin State Journal profiles Castro, who is spending his eighteenth season as part of the Brewer coaching staff.

Maybe he should play second base in a catcher's mask: Brett Lawrie broke his nose getting hit with a bad hop on a ground ball on Thursday. He was able to pinch hit yesterday, so one would assume he's close to being back in the lineup.

Around the league:

Angels: Placed Shane Loux on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Cubs: Placed Rich Harden on the DL with a mid-back strain. (h/t FanShot)
Dodgers: Signed Korean pitchers Ji-Mo Lee and Hyang-nam Choi to minor league deals and placed outfielder Xavier Paul on the DL with an infection in his knee.
Indians: Placed Anthony Reyes (elbow inflammation) and Aaron Laffey (oblique strain) on the DL.
Orioles: Released Adam Eaton.
Rays: Placed Scott Kazmir (quad strain) and Troy Percival (shoulder tendinitis) on the DL, and are also expected to place Akinori Iwamura on the DL with a knee injury. Percival may consider retirement.
Reds: Designated OF Darnell McDonald for assignment and placed Edinson Volquez on the DL with a back issue.
Rockies: Placed catcher Chris Iannetta on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Royals: Placed SS Mike Aviles (forearm strain) and pitcher Robinson Tejeda (rotator cuff tendinitis) on the DL.

With Scott Kazmir out, the Rays have called up David Price, who will start tonight. Price has been striking out over nine batters per nine innings in AAA while posting a 3.93 ERA.

Ever wonder what life is like for a career journeyman like Ron Villone? Nats320 sat down with the former Brewer to discuss his first day as a National.

The MLB Draft doesn't get the hype of its NFL and NBA counterparts, but if you need starting pitching it's very important. Minor League Ball crunched the numbers and discovered that 34% of last year's top pitchers were former first round picks.

Oh, and with the proper training and sound effects, you too can make it look like you're beating the crap out of your kids.

Drink up.

Playing With Matchups: Bartolo Colon vs. Kansas City

colintj — Mon, 04 May 2009 22:04:36 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

Not even Punto can jump so high. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

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Colon's Known Knowns

It's only been 5 starts, but at this point we've got a good idea of what Bartolo is going to give SSS faithful each time he takes the bump. See his last start, por ejemplo. His four-seamer sits 88-92 depending on how he's feeling and how hot the gun is at the park on game day. He's also got a two-seamer with less velocity and more horizontal movement that he can get jam-shots and grounders with against RHB. He very rarely mixes in a slider to them, as well. Against lefties, he has yet to show much of a change. When he's had trouble getting the inside corner, he gives up walks and gets hit hard. As Cheat has mentioned, he has a slim margin for error. His stuff is lacking and his success is highly control dependent. I would say therefore there are two questions to tackle in predicting his success in any given start:

1)How is his command?

2)How many and how good are the LHB?

We're not going to know about the former until the game starts. As for the latter, the Royals have a pretty middling offense that has been playing a bit over its head so far, having been average over the first month.

The Lefties

The Royals really don't have that many impressive bats and it's no better from the left than from the right. They certainly feel the loss of Alex Gordon, whom PECOTA picked to hit .267/.359/.501 against RHP in '09. The biggest threat at the moment is something of a toss up. Going back to PECOTA, it would suggest Mike Jacobs. He's totally useless in the field and against lefties, but if there is one thing he can do, it's hit homers against opposite handed foes. Career vs. RHP: .267/.328/.522. Note the still below average OBP. His contact rate and understanding of the zone are not very good. As long as Colon is wily enough to induce bad swings, he'll avoid damage, but it isn't going to help that he only has a variety of heat to offer Jacobs, as he loves to chase. As a rule against lefties, Colon has the same approach he has at dinner time: not much falls off the plate.*

Meanwhile, Mark Teahen and David DeJesus will be responsible for much of the on-basing. This is simply because no one else is going to do it at an above average rate from either side of the plate. Neither are especially walk oriented, but they hit the ball with authority into the gaps and with some HR power. Callapso and Crisp are similar, but without the pop. Royal Team Truism: limit hits and they don't have much other way on base. This will hopefully provide a larger margin of error than normal. It also means it's more likely that if the Sox lose, they've been BABIP'd to death. Good defense will be necessary.

The Righties

Nothing really special, particularly against same-handed pitches. Billy Butler is still young and the Royals are still waiting on his power to come. He's got to hit above average to avoid a replacement level tag at DH and he's yet to get there in his young career. I wonder if the Royals should have been in such a hurry to start his service clock. Good ol' hindsight. Mike Aviles is no Ben Zobrist, but he's certainly got a mutant version of Puntitis of his own. It remains to be seen if he can match his .350+ BABIP in 2008 and most projection systems have him pegged for 70-80 point drop in OPS. Since he's such an upstart, it's really not clear what kind of value he's going to provide. Like Charlie Kelly, he's the wildcard, bitches! The catchers, both right handed, are ineffectual against non-southpaws.

Conclusions?

via www.acslater.com

*Colon fat joke quota satisfied

Royals Win Comedy of Errors

Jesse — Sun, 03 May 2009 10:46:24 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

7 months ago: Kansas City Royals third baseman Alberto Callaspo tags out Minnesota Twins' Nick Punto as he attempted to steal third base in the sixth inning of a baseball game Saturday, May 2, 2009 in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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An amazing game that lasted seven innings, it was as frustrating as it was fun.

Every time the Twins took the lead, the Royals would come right back. Every time the Royals took the lead, the Twins would come right back. Well, every time except once.

One of the reasons baseball is such a great game is because somebody has to win. There are no ties, and no matter what happens each and every game has that same finality. Saturday night was, truly enough, a game that neither team really deserved to win. Sadly for the Twins, not only did they not deserve to win, but they actually didn't.

Miscues

* In the first inning, with runners on first and second and one out, Justin Morneau struck out. Alexi Casilla, who was stealing third on the pitch, was cut down. It really wasn't even that close.

* Fast-forward to bottom of the sixth, and it happened again. This time, two men on and again one away, Casilla flew out to David DeJesus in left field. With Joe Mauer and his hot bat on deck, Nick Punto still tried to tag up and advance to third base. It was a close play, but DeJesus' relay to Mike Aviles was a good one, and Aviles' turned a nice one to Alberto Callaspo at third. Callaspo applied the tag to Punto's right knee just before his foot touched the bag.

* Why was Brian Buscher playing at first base? Morneau just had a day off. If it was imperative to give Buscher some plate appearances, Joe Crede and his wife just had baby Chase, meaning he was exhausted. Start him at third base. Or if he played because Jason Kubel was scratched due to flu-like symptoms, then why shift your starting first baseman to designated hitter? Either DH Buscher, or DH Young or Cuddyer and put Denard Span in the outfield. Bench guys need playing time, but when you're forcing the issue by playing guys at secondary positions you're asking for trouble. Buscher was unable to scoop a throw by Punto once, but the Twins were lucky enough to keep the Royals off the board.

* With two away in the bottom of the seventh, Crede laced a nice single to the right-center field gap. Jose Guillen cut it off in plenty of time and threw it in. Imagine your surprise when Crede was trying to take second. He was out by a mile. Honestly, a mile.

* In the top of the eighth, Jose Mijares came on with one out. After inducing a DeJesus ground out where Callaspo advanced to third base, he induced a Miguel Olivo routine grounder to Casilla's left. Casilla bobbled the ball and Callaspo scored; the 6-6 tie was broken.

* Buscher leads off the bottom of the tenth with a double; two feet from going over the fence to end the game. He was stranded on third.

* The entire top half of the eleventh inning.

Kansas City clearly had mistakes of their own. A poor throw by Aviles at short. Coco Crisp's inability to make a routine throw that led to a Twins run. Wild pitches by Juan Cruz, Ron Mahay and Joakim Soria. And, just like the Twins, an inability to keep runs off the board. But in the end they took advantage of a rough outing by Craig Breslow (3 BB, 0.1 IP).

By juxtoposition, the Twins had their bright spots. Joe Mauer can, and will, hit anything. His ninja-style shoe-string single in the first was impressive, as was his rip to the right-center field gap when Brian Bannister tried to come inside in a situation that was a bit too predictable. Delmon Young and Crede hit the ball hard.

It was a rough night by a pair of mediocre teams. The difference between them was that somebody had to win, and on Saturday it was the Royals who pulled it off. A lot of it seems to do with attitude; in years past, if the Twins had repeatedly pulled ahead or came back, at some point Kansas City would have simply folded. This time they didn't, and it's a sign of change for the boys in Royal blue.

Rubber match kicks off in a few hours, be sure to show your support. Minnesota is still the better team, but they need to play like it.

Stars of the Game
#3: Joe Mauer (4-for-6, RBI)
#2: Michael Cuddyer (2-for-4, 3 R, HR, RBI)
#1: Delmon Young (3-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI)

Five Questions: The KC Star's Sam Mellinger

Ian Casselberry — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 17:30:09 -0000

If the Tigers are playing the Royals for the first time this season, we have to talk to our buddy Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star. If you want to keep up with the Royals, Sam's blog, Ball Star, is a must-read. (And it's worth a look even if you don't want to follow the Royals.)

We swapped questions with Sam before last year's first Tigers-Royals series, and K.C. went on to sweep three games. Actually, maybe we shouldn't be talking to him. I probably should've considered that.

Bless You Boys: So the surprising upstart team of the AL Central comes into town to take on the heavy favorite to win the division (by the New York Times, anyway). A battle for first place! Just like the experts predicted, right?

Sam Mellinger: Maybe Sidney Ponson throws a no-hitter on Sunday and the Tigers' bullpen doesn't give up a baserunner. It would just about make sense. I gotta be honest, I expected the Tigers this season to embody an adjective you'd probably rather not have on your blog. They still might, but over .500 after two weeks has to be worth something, right? As for the Royals, I do expect them to be around .500 most of the year, but can't say early injuries to Gordon and Guillen are encouraging.

BYB: Obviously, the Royals didn't want to lose Alex Gordon. But after being moved around the last couple of years, do you think Mark Teahen is happy to be back at third base?

SM: To be honest, and if he was being honest, I think he'd tell you he'd just rather have a position and stick to it. It's kind of funny that last spring, when I was joking with him about being moved from third to right and then to left field, he said, "Yeah, it's fine as long as they're not putting me at second base next year." Turns out the move to second base was Teahen's idea.

But if new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer has as much an impact on Teahen as everybody's saying, the challenged Royals offense will need his Jeff Kent imitation in the lineup -- wherever he plays in the field.

BYB: You were critical of Trey Hillman's handling of the bullpen last weekend. Do you think he doesn't have a feel for his relievers yet (especially Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz)? Or could Hillman's experience in Japan have him accustomed to using the bullpen differently?

SM: I don't buy the Japan theories. Trey is American. He was born and raised in Texas, spent more than a decade managing in the Yankees' system. He certainly learned some things in Japan, and had a ton of success and some experiences that changed his outlook and view on both baseball and life. But I just don't believe that the guy came back wanting to Japan-ize American baseball. There are a lot of things to criticize Trey about, and I've done a lot of it, but I just don't buy the Japan thoughts.

He does need a bit better feel for the relievers, especially Farnsworth. The decision to go with Farnsworth instead of Soria for the ninth inning [last Saturday] in Texas was just terrible on so many different levels. The front office gave Trey a deep and talented bullpen to work with. There's no reason it shouldn't play out to be one of the team's biggest strengths. It's just up to Trey to use it correctly, and if he doesn't, well, that goes a long way in determining his effectiveness as a manager.

BYB: Are there any concerns about Mike Aviles's slow start? (.182/.193/.218 in 57 plate appearances.) Or are Billy Butler's numbers (.213 /.339 /.277, three RBIs in 56 PAs) raising more eyebrows?

SM: Yes and maybe. I could be proven wrong on this, but Billy's gonna hit. The kid is a savant of sorts. Won two batting titles in three full minor league seasons, and missed the other year by two or three points. He crushes lefties already, and that leaves a big portion of the pie, but I would be really surprised if Billy doesn't turn into a very good big league hitter.

As for Aviles, yes, lots of concerns. Or, at least, there should be. A slow start isn't necessarily alarming, but when you take it all in context there are real reasons to worry. Aviles has lots of holes in his swing, and if the slow start means that the league has figured out how to exploit those holes and Aviles is unable to counter, then it's a big problem.

Remember, Aviles' rookie year was a revelation specifically because of how little anybody was expecting. He was exposed in the Rule 5 draft, nobody took him, the Royals called him up only because their first three shortstop options each failed, then Trey benched him for a week after he went hitless in his first game before finally getting another shot. If Aviles is behind now in the adjustment game, it's definitely something worth keeping an eye on.

[Ed. Note -- Sam wrote more about Aviles' slow start on his blog yesterday.]

BYB: Should Tigers fans feel lucky their team is only facing the "GD" portion of the "MGD" starting pitcher triumvirate in this series?

SM: Haha, yeah, unless they were hoping to get two of the "other" options. I'm expecting all summer the Royals to win more games than they lose when Meche, Greinke or Davies is starting, and then sort of trying to fight for wins when the fourth or fifth starter is going. But look at it this way: your guys have the chance to be the first team this season to score on Greinke.

# # #

Thanks once again to Sam for taking the time to answer our questions. He's a good sport and a fun guy, and has great taste in burgers. You can read Ball Star every day at kansascity.com. Now we just have to get him on the Twitter.

Floyd Fans 9, Loses Pitcher's Duel to Greinke

The Cheat — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 03:01:15 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

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I was expecting a pitching duel Wednesday night, and that's just what we got.

Zack Greinke, who has the one of the most easily misspelled names in baseball, has been a popular pre-season Cy Young pick thanks to a strong finish to a year that saw him reestablish himself as a more than capable major league starter following what can only be described as a mental breakdown. And Gavin Floyd, well you know how I feel about Floyd, plus Floyd is coming off a spring where he was arguably the Sox most impressive pitcher from day 1. So I expected the two newly-extended pitchers to go out there and justify their new contracts, at least for one game, with some fine pitching on a cool Chicago night.

Greinke and Floyd did not disappoint. Floyd turned in a performance as impressive as any of his early-season outings last year. Unfortunately for us, and the White Sox, he wasn't the most impressive pitcher on the US Cellular Field mound tonight.

Greinke was every bit as dazzling a hurler as Joe Posnanski recently described in this lovingly crafted piece. He walked one more batter than Floyd, and didn't fan as many, but he left no doubt as to who was the better pitcher on this night. Those three walks were a result of making sure he missed out of the zone. What Greike did better than Floyd on this evening was make sure his mistakes wouldn't be the type of mistakes that would hurt him.

Example: Mike Aviles killed the Sox last year to the tune of a .359/.388/.531 batting line. He hit everything White Sox pitchers threw at him; sliders in the dirt, fastballs off the plate, and every once in a while he'd hit one that was thrown over the plate. Point is, the Sox had no clue how to get the guy out. But after two games, it appears like they at least have a plan this season.

Both Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd tried to elevate fastballs out of the zone to get Aviles to chase the ball. Buehrle had some success with that approach, making Aviles look foolish in the process, but Floyd couldn't get the ball up enough. In fact, the only time Floyd got hit hard Wednesday was when he got his fastball up; twice to Alives, once to Coco Crisp immediately following Aviles, and again on Mark Teahen's RBI single. Floyd got burned for each time he failed to execute his plan.

Greinke didn't. He left a number of fastballs right over the heart of the plate; Jim Thome and Carlos Quentin each got one served up on a tee in their final at-bat against Greinke, but neither could do anything with them. Greinke's plan, which seemed to include throwing up-and-in on righthanders, specifically Quentin, when ahead in the count to open up the outside corner for the slider, was simply executed better than Floyd's.

I don't know if Greinke intended to hit Quentin, but he was clearly pitching inside with a purpose. And the White Sox aren't likely to forget with another 16 (17?) games left with the Royals on the schedule.

Dewayne Wise Deathwatch

Because the Sox have only produced one run this season that wasn't via the HR. They must need a new leadoff man...

Dewayne Wise went 0-4 with another strikeout and a pop-up bunt. He walked back to the dugout to an increasing roar of boos after each one of his at-bats. At least he made all the plays you expect a major league center fielder to make.

Josh Fields and Chris Getz, meanwhile, continued to look like they belong even if they didn't fill up the box score with hits. Fields drew a walk after falling behind 0-2, and made a nice stop and a better throw from his knees to keep Floyd away from a big inning; while Getz smashed an 8th inning Juan Cruz fastball, but it was hit directly at douchenozzle.

Silver lining

You aren't going to win many games with only 3 hits, all singles, but the Sox pitching staff, specifically the bullpen, is attempting to give them the a chance. After Clayton Richard, Octavio Dotel and Bobby Jenks combined for 4 innings of shutout relief yesterday, Matt Thornton and Scott Linebrink answered the call tonight with 4 strikeouts and nary a baserunner in their two innings of work.