SB Nation - Greg Smith

Purple Row interviews Marc Gustafson, Part 2

RockiesMagicNumber — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 15:00:33 -0000

As you read in our first in this 3-part series, Rockies Director of Player Development Marc Gustafson took time to answer some questions for Purple Row. In this installment, Mr. Gustafson answers a lot of questions about specific farmhands, and we begin to touch on players recently drafted.

Apologies for the delay in Part 2, but here we have it.

RMN: Now, since a lot of fans don't get a chance to watch the guys - I mean, we can follow the box scores, we do a near-daily report on what the minor league clubs have been doing - is there a particular player that might not be having that great of a year that Rockies fans should be more aware of?

Marc Gustafson: Wow, that's a tough question. If you look at box scores and you look at team statistics and stats and things like that, I think that we should all be very proud of the year that we've had. In terms of an individual, you know, we've had some success there too. Maybe a guy under the radar screen would be Darin Holcomb, 3B in Tulsa, starting to hit, starting to put up big numbers. He's a guy that we think - coming out of his season last year in Asheville, he was voted the Most Valuable Player, he went to Hawaii, he struggled, we jumped to Modesto with him, we sent him to Tulsa. He struggled early, but now he's starting to hit. He's going to go to the Arizona Fall League. So he might be one example of a guy...the batting average isn't going to jump out at you - I think it's about .275 right now, he has 13, 14 home runs, but those numbers are starting to build up, starting to rise to the top. He was just voted to the postseason All Star team in the Texas League. Maybe a guy like that would be somebody early on that was under the radar screen that is now starting to surface a little bit.

RMN: I know that Rox Girl and Russ keep an eye on these guys a lot closer than a lot of the other people do. How do you feel about Holcomb's glove at 3B?

Marc Gustafson: Yeah, he's solid. He's a solid major-league defender. He's got a very strong arm, he's got an accurate arm, he moves well, he's an athlete at 3B. He loves to play the game, he's a grinder. He's a tough guy over there. Definitely, he'd be in the "prospect" category, as he moves into what we would hope to be a AAA situation next year.

RMN: AAA would be a big jump, definitely exciting to hear that we have more coming, given our depths. Where would you say the strongest and weakest positional groups are in our farm? Obviously, in the majors we have a glut of solid Outfield.

Marc Gustafson: Well, I would have said Middle Infield. Obviously, we lost Cabrera, we loved Everth Cabrera, and I hope he has a wonderful career, because he's such a special person. He's with the Padres right now.

RMN: I promise you we're aware of Everth Cabrera on Purple Row!

Marc Gustafson: Hector Gomez is a very talented SS, and he'll be in the AFL as well. I would probably look to the middle infield as being a strength in the organization. I would also look at the pitching depth in the bullpen, some big-time arm strength guys. Shane Lindsay, Edgar Escalona with the Tulsa Club, Alberto Alburquerque with the Tulsa Club, Andrew Johnston, Craig Baker with Modesto. We've got some really good arms and bullpen depth in the minor league system.

RMN: Oh, so we're pretty high on Alburquerque. We didn't know much about him when we heard about the [Jeff] Baker trade. It's good to hear that he's a guy that everybody has their eyes on. Speaking of Hector Gomez, we kind of lump Hector Gomez and Wil Rosario into the same category: a couple of years out, but these guys have a lot of raw stuff. When do you see them being able to contribute?

Marc Gustafson: Well, I would think a couple of years. They're high-end talent. You look at prospect categories, and each organization is a little bit different, but they'd be in the "top tier" category in our system in terms of position player prospect talent. Hector and Wilin Rosario are going to play in the AFL, and that's a very very talented league. So if they go and they handle that league well, you're looking maybe at a AA situation next year, and shortly thereafter, you'd hope they'd be knocking on the door at the big league level.

RMN: We're all looking forward to it as well. We all know 2B has been a little bit of an interesting situation the last couple of years.

Marc Gustafson: Yep.

RMN: In terms of other prospects we were expecting to be seeing soon, what do you expect of the injured guys like Chris Nelson, Casey Weathers, Greg Reynolds, or even Greg Smith? What's the word on them right now? What do we think about them going forward?

Marc Gustafson: I'd put Jeff Francis in that category as well. I know he's been there and done that, but those guys are looking at the Arizona Instructional League Program, they're going to participate in that program very soon as we head to Tucson on the 19^th of September. To get them back onto the field, that makes us even better, to have that caliber talent helping and contributing and getting ready for next year. Really, their focus is on their health number one, getting back on the field this fall and being full-strength and ready to go for Spring Training next year.

RMN: Speaking of injured players rehabbing, my understanding is Casey Weathers is with the Dust Devils right now. How is his rehab coming along?

Marc Gustafson: He's doing well. He had a couple of setbacks here and there throughout the rehab process. In terms of his strength and range of motion and how he's feeling right now, he's feeling as good as he's ever felt since the surgery. He's throwing in a long-toss program; he'll be off the mound before too long as we get into Tucson. To have a guy like that back and contributing in the bullpen, that gives us the depth we're looking for.

RMN: Obviously being injured and coming back from Tommy John, it's always a bit tricky to try and forecast in general. A lot of people have complained that all our relief pitchers seem to be rentals. It's important to remind them that we do have Corpas and Buchholz coming back next season, but can we consider Weathers to be someone in the 2010 mix?

Marc Gustafson: Yeah, I think definitely. This is a guy that competed in the Olympics and had a great season in Tulsa, and was getting real close, and unfortunately, he had the injury. He's going to rehab and get back and be ready for Spring Training next year. That's his primary focus. Sometimes to go through some adversity - it might sound crazy, but it's not the end of the world. It's getting the arm fixed at a young age and come back and have a successful major league career. We're very confident he's going to be in that category.

RMN: Along with him, are there any other AA/AAA players that we see making an impact or being a surprise for us next year?

Marc Gustafson: You guys have already probably seen and talked about Jhoulys Chacin, he's a special talent; he's going to be back in the mix in the very near future. Esmil Rogers, starter in AAA Colorado Springs, he's a very talented right-handed starter. You go to Sammy Deduno, who was just named Texas League Pitcher of the Year, he's going to be in the mix. You know, you keep those pitchers coming, and then you mix in a few guys who have done well in the bullpen - Matt Reynolds from Tulsa, Andrew Johnston from Tulsa, the Colorado Springs group that we have there now, we do have a few veteran guys, but at the same point in time, you're looking for as many quality arms as you can find, and I think we've got a few.

RMN: Does Deduno look more to be in the rotation mix or the bullpen mix?

Marc Gustafson: Right now we're going to keep him in the rotation, just because he has such premium stuff, he deserves the opportunity to start. But it wouldn't be too far-fetched to say that next year he could be in the bullpen mix coming out of spring training.

RMN: Given the amount of starting talent we have coming up the pipe pretty soon, that wouldn't be a surprise at all. Now, a personal favorite of mine, Keith Weiser in AA - I'm not sure why, but I just latched onto the guy - tell me how awesome Keith Weiser is, please.

Marc Gustafson: He's an awesome guy. You picked a good one to have as a favorite; he's just as great off the field as he is on! He had a great outing last night, in fact. He's had some rough ones here and there, but you know what, he's at the AA level, and there's some good hitters, so you have to give credit to them. It's a matter of making adjustments, and he certainly did last night against the Springfield club.

RMN: Absolutely. In terms of adjustments, let me jump to a more extreme case. Is Scott Beerer the next Rick Ankiel?

Marc Gustafson: Haha, it's interesting you bring that up, because this has been a wonderful story. This guy has so much heart and he has so much passion to play the game, I wouldn't put it past him. He's at Modesto and his numbers still are great. We're trying very hard to get him a winter ball job so he can continue to play - because that's what he needs, he needs ABs, he needs to play. I wouldn't put it past him, just because he believes he's a big leaguer and he's gone out and done a pretty good job each and every night. I love the kid, personally, and the organization is very proud of what he's been able to do. We'd like to see him play winter ball and see where that takes him as we go into spring training next year.

RMN: That's very encouraging. Everyone loves to watch the hard worker type. Now, Russ told me to say that he asked this specifically: "I'm a really big fan of Joey Wong's, but I realize he has a tough road ahead of him. Can he be the organization's David Eckstein?"

Marc Gustafson: Yes.

RMN: ...Alright!

Marc Gustafson: Yes, this kid can play defense. He might be the best defender that we've had at Tri-Cities level or rookie ball level. He knows how to play the game, without a doubt. He's a wonderful talent in terms of his glove, his ability to make throws off-balance, his ability to move around in the field to get himself in the right position. And you know what, his bat, we're going to work very hard with his bat in the Instructional League and we'll see where it takes him, but I would say Yes.

RMN: Alright, I'm sure Russ will be excited to hear that. He brought up another player in Jeremiah Sammy, says "He came out of nowhere as an undrafted free agent. What is the strongest aspect of his game?"

Marc Gustafson: Well, we got him based on his defense and his arm strength, thinking that if we didn't see development with the bat, then we'd put him on the mound and see what we could do with his arm strength because he's got premium arm strength. He's shown up extremely well, and he's put together a great season up here in Tri-Cities. We're going to take him to Instructional League and keep working with him, and let him - I guess the best way to say it is let's let him fail first, if he does fail at the infield position, and then we'll see what he can do if that point in time comes. And who knows, that time may not come!

RMN: It's always a possibility! Now, Tri-City being the lowest A-ball level, where does it fit into the organization in terms of what players are sent there? You hear about a lot of people jumping right over Tri-Cities, or jumping right over Casper and going straight to Tri-Cities. Can you speak a little bit to that?

Marc Gustafson: Well, Tri-Cities is a step higher, in our opinion, above Casper. Casper is our lowest entry-level club. Tri-Cities and Casper, we try and find a balance. When we go into the draft we put the names on the board of who we have in spring training and then we fill in with what Bill Schmidt and the scouting department takes in the draft. A lot of it is based on age and where they've played. For example, the high schoolers: Nolan Arenado and our 1^st round pick Tyler Matzek, they're in Casper. The older, maybe college players, for example Tim Wheeler and Rex Brothers, they started in Tri-Cities, although Rex Brothers is now with Asheville. It's more, in our organization, age and where they've played.

RMN: Well, I'm glad you brought up the guys in the draft, because we have a handful of questions about them. What are the club's plans for Arenado, position-wise? I know he's been playing 3B as we're a bit thin there, but are there any plans to try him out as a catcher?

Marc Gustafson: We're not going to rush into that. We know that is an option for us, but this kid can play 3B. He doesn't have the straight-ahead running speed that some of the others do, but he has wonderful hands, and he can throw. So that's an option behind the plate with him, but our primary focus right now is let him play 3B and let him swing the bat. Because he can really swing the bat.

RMN: I'll save my Matzek questions for the end, as he's the biggest story there. What kind of power is the organization projecting for Tim Wheeler?

Marc Gustafson: The power is going to come. It's going to be a bit like Charlie Blackmon. I don't know if you're familiar with Charles Blackmon at Modesto right now, but these guys are line drive type hitters, meaning gap-to-gap, hit the ball where it's pitched. With some maturity and some strength developing, I think the home run potential and their ability to drive the ball out of the ballpark is going to come. But that's going to come a little bit later in their career, maybe a little bit like [Garrett] Atkins or even Matt Holliday, and they came from the system. But both Tim Wheeler and Charlie Blackmon, they're athletes, first and foremost. They can play CF with ease, they've got great arms, they move around well, they can steal bases, they get on base. They really do everything that you're looking for a CF to do.

----

That will be the end for this time, but we'll have one final installment covering the draft, some other favorite farmhands, and some parting words from Mr. Gustafson!

Quick thoughts on a Tuesday: Cargo vs Holliday

RockiesMagicNumber — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:00:27 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

Who needs Matt Holliday when you have these two mashers? Does the Mash Brothers work? We can't use the Bash Brothers, they were hockey players...we'll have to come up with something clever.

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That's right, friends, you're getting a double dose of Counting Rocks this week....assuming I can finish tomorrow's article...

Anyhow, a poster on another messageboard I frequent brought up the issue of the Holliday trade, and used WAR to justify it for the Rockies. The obvious caveat was "we'll have to see how Wallace and Gonzalez pan out" and then Cardinals fans took over the discussion from their angle. I figured I couldn't let this stand, as Holliday was OUR player, so I ran a bit of analysis on what Holliday has provided for the Cardinals as compared with what Gonzalez has provided for the Rockies.

The question stands: Was it a mistake to trade Matt Holliday in the first place?

Click past the jump and we'll take a look at what we've come up with.

The thing we're forgetting is who we have replacing Holliday. When you consider how good Seth Smith has been, that adds to the value of the trade, sort of.

Given that Fuentes was undoubtedly leaving, and Holliday had no intention of reupping with the club, we'd be talking about Corpas closing and singlehandedly costing us probably 4-5 games in the standings, and then getting hurt. Street's been nearly invaluable, obviously not just because of saves, but his 2.82 WPA, 2.29 tRA, and goofy ass smile. Also "Hate Me Now" by Nas. Greg Smith has been an excellent paperweight in AAA.

Also, while we lost Holliday, we gained 5 freaking years of Carlos Gonzalez. I don't know what to expect out of him going forward, but I do know that he's bumped his season line to .299/.372/.549/.396. Holliday's season line is at .315/.394/.528/.394. Seth Smith, in limited/platoon/PH/grossly unappreciated duty, has batted .318/.406/.573/.419. I figure we can lump Smith and Gonzalez together, as they've had to share duty, what with Fowler in CF.

Since Aug 1, Gonzalez has batted at a level of 13.5 wRAA (weighted Runs Above Average), Holliday 19.1. Gonzalez has also played outstanding defense in LF and about average in CF (per UZR), and UZR basically hates Holliday in LF (-3.4 UZR in LF as a Card). (I know it's kind of faulty to just look at a month and change, but if we're gonna evaluate Holliday, we really can only do it as a Card, and so we'll just look at Gonzalez from the same date). I want to combine Smith and Gonzalez for August, because despite their firey bats, they had to split time in some way shape or form. Only issue here is Holliday has 141 PA to Gonzalez' 116 since Aug 1, but adding Smith to Gonzalez bumps you up to 206 PA, so a direct comparison gets a bit tricky.

So instead we'll evaluate on a per-PA scale. If we look at Gonzalez + Smith for August, and just Gonzalez for September (as Fowler's been dead so both Smith and Gonzalez have been starting), Holliday's posting a .1073 RV/PA (Run-Value per Plate Appearance, above Average), while the convoluted Smith/Gonzalez platoon thing posted a .0836 RV/PA. Factor in defense and I'd argue it's a wash.

Basically, Smith + Gonzalez >= Holliday in my opinion/evaluation, and then Street on top of that, because there's no way we are where we are without him.

Saturday Pebble Report: Asheville clinches 2nd half Southern division pennant in the Sally

Russ Oates — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 13:29:05 -0000

Colorado Springs, L 6-9
The Sky Sox attempted a comeback over the last three innings of the game, but ultimately fell short by a few runs. Greg Smith was roughed up for seven runs in four innings, five of the seven coming the the third inning.

Mike McCoy hit two doubles and Edwin Bellorin drove in three runs.

Tulsa, L 2-3
Chaz Roe allowed eight hits but he saw only two runs cross home plate. Tommy Baumgardner and Edgmer Escalona pitched three innings of scoreless relief, with the former striking out two, the latter three. Andrew Johnston lost the game after starting the inning with a wild pitch, watching Dayton Buller allow a ball passed him, and then a ground-rule double after an out and a walk.

Modesto, L 5-17
Brutal game for Ethan Hollingsworth: 4.1 IP, 14 H,11 R, 9 ER, 2 BB, 1 HR. There wasn't an inning he pitched in that was scoreless. And Chris Malone didn't stop the bleeding in the fifth inning, or even after that inning. He allowed two inherited runners to score and saw six more runs score over the last innings of the game.

Modesto batters combined to strike out 15 times and had their best inning in the third when Scott Beerer hit an RBI double and two runs scored on a fielding error.

Asheville, W 4-0
Dan Houston threw seven innings of three-hit ball. He walked three and struck out six. Michael Marbry picked up the save after pitching 1 2/3 innings and striking out two.

Delta Cleary had no hits in one AB, but walked three times. He drove in a run, along with Scott Robinson (who stole his 44th base), Kiel Roling (who had two hits), and Mike Zuanich. Everyone in the lineup struck out at least once to combine for a total of 12 K's.

With the win, Asheville went one game above .500 and secured a spot in the SAL playoffs.

Tri-City, W 7-3
Dan Perkins allowed three runs in the fourth inning, his last inning of work. He also struck out four. Eric Federico, Paul Bargas, and Charlie Ruiz held Boise scoreless and to only three hits over the last five innings.

Kent Matthes hit his fifth homer of the season, and Tim Wheeler and Leonardo Reyes each hit a double. Those were the only extra bases hits for Tri-City last night. Joe Scott struck out four times.

Casper had its game postponed.

Wednesday Rockpile: Ruminations on Seth Smith and Jose Contreras

Jabberwocky — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 14:34:18 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

For the love of all that is holy, Tracy, play Seth Smith!

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The Rockies not only ended a five game losing streak with a 8-3 victory over the Mets last night, but they also surged a game ahead over the Giants in the Wild Card race--a lead that I surmise Colorado will not relinquish the rest of the year.

In very related news Seth Smith was in the starting lineup for the Rockies, only his third start in eight games (and with Dexter Fowler on the DL). Smith's 3-4 game raised his wOBA to .394, behind only Todd Helton. Dixie also has the third highest WAR total on the team in limited action.

Despite the glut of outfielders on the Rockies roster, Smith really needs to play more. If that playing time comes at the expense of Brad Hawpe and Ryan Spilborghs, so be it. My hope is that with Jason Giambi on the roster as a left-handed bat off the bench, Jim Tracy will look for Smith to provide more of a starting role.

Speaking of Giambi, the 38 year old slugger made quite an entrance into the Rockies clubhouse. Colorado killed the Mets with their patience last night, drawing seven walks--including two with the bases juiced (an unfortunate idiom for Giambi, who drew one of them). The Rockies are excited about what Giambi brings to the club.

Garrett Atkins got a rare start against a right hander last night and took advantage, going 2-3 with another bases loaded walk. He was only starting because Ian Stewart's wife was giving birth to their first child--congratulations to the Stewart family! Also noted in Renck's article is the fact that Greg Reynolds and Greg Smith were both placed on the 60 day DL to make room for Giambi and Paul Phillips on the 40 man roster.

Contreras Talk

Within this Renck article is news that Aaron Cook expects to throw again in the regular season, though not for another 2-3 weeks. In the meantime, Jose Contreras will get the chance to prove his worth to the Rockies. To make room for Contreras, the Rockies designated catcher Edwin Bellorin for assignment.

ESPN Insider's Keith Law reviews the Contreras deal, liking the move from Colorado's side. His opinion mirrors mine, especially with this money quote:

It's no guarantee, but with Contreras the Rockies at least get the possibility of a few strong outings down the stretch in a race that might be decided by just a game or two.

Buster Olney writes about waiver warfare and while he refers to the Red Sox and Yankees, the NL West performed their own form of an arms race at the waiver trading deadline.

The Rockies were purportedly unfazed by this trading flurry, though I'm not sure I buy that. What I do think is that of the three NL West teams, the Rockies got the best players (if not necessarily the best deals).

Sure, Jim Thome is great at hitting, but he won't be able to play in the field at all (Rob Neyer wonders why he was signed) while Jon Garland and Brad Penny don't have the potential that Contreras brings to the table, Cuban octogenarian or not. So you could say that I'm one of the few brave souls drinking the Contreras Kool-Aid (have some, it's terrific). I guess Ronnie Belliard could tip the scales in LA's favor, you know, if you're into Ronnie Belliard.

Tracy Ringolsby offers a quick and dirty Contreras-Penny comparison for those who remain unconvinced--and there are many of you.

Playoff Odds

Coolstandings (55.4%)

Baseball Prospectus Original/PECOTA/ELO (62.9/54.7/59.6)

Sportsclubstats (Graphical--63.0%) Most likely record is from 89-92 wins according to simulation.

Power Rankings

CBSSports--because I'm sure that somebody wants to read them.

Poll

Who got the best of the waiver trading deadline arms race?

Dodgers: Jim Thome is the best bat and Jon Garland is a workhorse that throws strikes. Plus, Ronnie Belliard!

95 votes

Giants: Brad Penny came cheaply and he has pitched well in the NL West in the past.

55 votes

Rockies: Jason Giambi is no slouch with the bat and offers defensive utility while Jose Contreras has the highest ceiling of the pitchers.

117 votes

267 votes | Poll has closed

Trade Value Calculator: Holliday Trades

Jabberwocky — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 06:24:30 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Big Daddy is playing for his third team in less than a year.

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Last week I introduced Sky Kalkman's Trade Value Calculator with an analysis of the Rafael Betancourt trade. This week, I'll examine three different trade packages using this calculator and determine which had greater value. Data involved comes from Fangraphs (WAR) and Cot's Contracts (salary).

As most of you know, last Friday the St. Louis Cardinals acquired former Rockies LF Matt Holliday from the Oakland A's for prospects 1B/3B Brett Wallace, RHP Clayton Mortenson, and OF Shane Peterson. It was the second time that Holliday had been traded in less than a year--the first of course being from the Rockies to the A's for RHP Huston Street, LHP Greg Smith, and OF Carlos Gonzalez. Before that the Rockies had been considering a package of OF Ryan Ludwick, OF/2B Skip Schumaker, and RHP Mitchell Boggs for their slugger.

Several people have analyzed the latest trade, including Keith Law of ESPN (who valued the second trade as higher than the first), and Marc Hulet of Fangraphs (who agreed). But those two were looking at the moves after the Rockies had received excellent value from Street and little (Gonzalez) or nothing (Smith) from the other two pieces. I will instead examine these trade packages from the times they were proposed or acted on...after the jump.

Without further ado, let's look at the three Matt Holliday trade packages chronologically:

St. Louis Proposal to Colorado, November 2008 (Ludwick, Schumaker, Boggs)

This package was rumored to have been acceptable to Dan O'Dowd and was apparently close to happening.

First, let's look at the theoretical trade value of Matt Holliday going into 2009 using the trade calculator. For Holliday's WAR projection, I used 6.0 WAR--a benchmark that he'll come pretty close to equaling this year. Once again, remember that as a likely Type A free agent Holliday's compensatory two first round picks would be worth around $5 million to the Rockies.

Matt Holliday (full 2009 season)

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)
2009	$13.5	6.0	$27.2	$13.7

FA Picks			$5.0
Total	$13.5	6.0	$32.2	$18.7

In other words, a conservative projection for Holliday (which he's on pace for) would place his value at $18.7 million for the Rockies before the 2009 season.

Here are the values of the St. Louis players:

Ludwick

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)	Arb %
2009	$3.7	2.5	$11.5	$7.8	$3.7
2010	$9.7	3.5	$16.2	$6.5		60%
2011	$11.1	3.0	$13.9	$2.8		80%

FA Picks			$0.0
Total	$24.5	9.0	$41.5	$17.0

Schumaker

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)	Arb %
2009	$0.4	1.0	$4.7	$4.3	$0.4
2010	$2.3	1.2	$5.8	$3.5		40%
2011	$3.5	1.2	$5.8	$2.3		60%
2012	$3.9	1.0	$4.9	$1.0		80%

FA Picks			$0.0
Total	$10.2	4.4	$21.2	$11.1

Boggs

Rated as a C+ prospect by Sickels, the 25 year old Boggs was worth $1.5 million according to this table.

Total package value: $29.6 million

This package would have been a net gain of $10.9 million going forward for the Rockies at the time.

Oakland Package to Colorado, November 2008 (Gonzalez, Smith, and Street)

David Ohno compared the Oakland and St. Louis packages as the trade was consummated. Remember, Holliday's value for an entire season is $18.7 million.

Gonzalez

I have big-time problems rating Gonzalez, who was rated as a B+ prospect before the 2008 season but lost his prospect status going into 2009. I decided to project Gonzalez as growing into a league-average player by his sixth, last team-controlled year. This is definitely a conservative estimate for someone with Gonzalez's potential, but the risk is still there--that he will completely flame out.

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)	Arb %
2009	$0.4	0.8	$3.8	$3.4	$0.4
2010	$0.4	1.0	$4.9	$4.5	$0.4
2011	$0.4	1.2	$5.8	$5.4	$0.4
2012	$2.9	1.5	$7.2	$4.3		40%
2013	$5.1	1.8	$8.5	$3.4		60%
2014	$7.9	2.1	$9.9	$2.0		80%

FA Picks			$0.0
Total	$17.1	8.4	$40.0	$22.9

Smith

Greg Smith had a great, fluky 2008 (he was rated a C+ arm under 23), so one would certainly keep expectations low going into 2009 and beyond--never approaching his 2008 career year.

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)	Arb %
2009	$0.4	0.5	$2.5	$2.0	$0.4
2010	$0.4	0.7	$3.6	$3.1	$0.4
2011	$1.8	0.9	$4.5	$2.7		40%
2012	$2.9	1.0	$4.9	$2.0		60%
2013	$3.9	1.0	$4.9	$1.0		80%

FA Picks			$0.0
Total	$9.4	4.1	$20.3	$10.8

Street

Huston Street came to the Rockies as a proven commodity, one who had established himself as a 1.5 WAR reliever in the tougher AL--a probable Type A free agent.

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)	Arb %
2009	$4.5	1.6	$7.4	$2.9	$4.5
2010	$6.4	1.7	$8.1	$1.6		80%

FA Picks			$5.0
Total	$10.9	3.3	$20.5	$9.5

Total package value: $43.2 million

This package, at the time the trade was consummated, netted the Rockies $24.5 million in value, quite a coup for Dan O'Dowd indeed. Whether one agrees with Gonzales and Smith's projections, it is easy to see that five or six cost-controlled years of league-average or above replacement level player production are cumulatively worth more than one year of superstar level production--provided there is an opportunity for those players to perform at the major league level.

As it has turned out so far, Smith has been a zero, Street a hero, and Gonzalez remains an enigma.

St. Louis Package to Oakland, July 2009 (Wallace, Mortenson, and Peterson)

Erik Manning of Beyond the Boxscore has analyzed this trade already using the trade value calculator--and he finds that Oakland received a surplus of about $14.5 million in the deal.

Conclusion

This analysis shows that Oakland had a net loss of $10 million on their Matt Holliday acquisition and trade...and that Colorado received (by quite a bit) the superior package of players in return for the outfielder. Of course, it seems like a distinct possibility now that Greg Smith will never contribute much of value to Colorado, rendering it a more equal trade...though it could be argued that Street will return a higher value and that Gonzalez could become far and away more valuable than I've projected him to be.

Wednesday Pebble Report: Bats alive in Colorado Springs and Modesto

Russ Oates — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 12:37:13 -0000

Colorado Springs, W 11-6
Tons of offense in this one. Matt Miller (2-for-4, 4 RBI) started things with a two-run homer in the first, but Greg Smith fell right out of the gate after that. He allowed back-to-back doubles and then served up a two-run homer. He would allow another two-run dinger in the third inning before exiting the game. Jason Hirsh allowed one hit over the next 3 1/3 innings.

Eric Young Jr. went 3-for-5; Mike McCoy drove in two; Christian Colonel hit two solo homers in back-to-back innings; and Chris Frey had three hits, one of which was a homer.

Tulsa, W 4-2
Tulsa was outhit in this game 3-5, but won 4-2. Keith Weiser allowed the two runs on a homer, struck out four, and lasted seven innings. Al Alburquerque and Andrew Johnston threw solid innings of relief to finish the game.

Modesto, W 10-6
The bats were out in force last night for the Nuts. Charlie Blackmon had quite a night, hitting a single, a triple (7), and a two-run homer (4). Wilin Rosario also had three hits, the lone extra-base one being a solo homer (4). Jay Cox had three hits and an RBI. Every starter drove in a at least run, except for Lars Davis and Radames Nazario.

Connor Graham allowed two unearned in five innings, committed a fielding error, and struck out nine.

Locally, yesterday was "Threesday," not Tuesday.

Tri-City, W 6-2
Ben Paulsen's hit an RBI single in the fourth, which was the only scoring on either side until the bottom of the seventh. Tim Wheeler knocked out a two-run triple (1) with two outs in the seventh, and Dallas Tarleton hit a two-run single in the eighth. Sheng-An Kuo allowed no runs in 5 2/3 innings and struck out five.

Casper, L 4-8
Juan Gonzalez couldn't quite get things done in the first three innings, allowing five runs. He stayed in for the next three innings and kept the game close at 5-3. Paul Bargas allowed three runs in the ninth. Eliezer Mesa had two hits and an RBI.

Friday Pebble Report: Buster Posey can't hit Greg Smith's 88 mph FB, Joe Table's nephew putting on the hits with Casper,

Rox Girl — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:52:00 -0000

Colorado Springs: L 6-7

I guess the thing to look at in last night's box score was the work of the MLB experienced pitchers that may help the Rockies later. Greg Smith had a decent start, Jason Hirsh struggled in his second relief appearance of the season, and Ryan Speier pitched well. Smith's performance along with that of Brandon Hynick with the Sky Sox thus far is decent to keep in the back of your head in case an injury bug hits our rotation. These guys aren't going to meet the level of our current starters at their best, but they aren't going to damage us terribly at the bottom end. The other good news from this game was despite the loss, our pitchers made Buster Posey look bad in his AAA debut:

Fresno Top 1st

Buster Posey grounds out like a weak four year old girl, shortstop Mike McCoy to first baseman Edwin Bellorin.

Fresno Top 4th

Buster Posey grounds out, third baseman Kenny Perez to first baseman Edwin Bellorin and starts crying. Buster Posey moves to time out on the play.

Fresno Top 6th

Buster Posey out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Daniel Ortmeier. Eugenio Velez scores. Buster Posey given lollipop and pat on head by Grizzlies manager.

Fresno Top 8th

Buster Posey grounds out, shortstop Mike McCoy to first baseman Edwin Bellorin. Right side of Sky Sox infield gets jealous.

Fresno Top 10th

Buster Posey merely flies out to center fielder Chris Frey in Colorado Springs, where even Kenny Perez can hit dingerz.

Well, that's how I read it anyway. Demoralizing the enemy at the minor league level probably doesn't help us win the wild card, but it makes me feel happy.

Tulsa: Postponed

Modesto: W 3-1

Connor Graham continues to be just good enough to be a legit prospect right outside the elites of the Rockies system, but not good enough to get into that next level. At this point given his age, his stuff and the starting depth that the Rockies already have, I have to think his role with the MLB team in two or three seasons will be in relief, and he's going to be good at it.

Charlie Blackmon had three hits and a walk to once again lead the Nuts offense. Rhadames Nazario also pitched in two hits.

Asheville: L 2-7

Kiel Roling had two hits including a double and Tyler Massey also had a pair of hits. Ethan Hollingsworth had one of his least efficient starts of the season, but still managed to put up some pretty impressive numbers, striking out ten while walking two. He gave up three runs on seven hits in five and two thirds innings.

Tri-City: W 3-2

Rod Scurry got one of those wins that detractors of the stat point to as a reason it's fundamentally flawed, as Scurry gave up the most runs of any Dust Devil pitcher to throw last night (2), in the least amount of time (one third of an inning), but because the offense rallied to save his tail in the next inning, he got the W rather than Sheng An Kuo, who allowed zero runs in five and two thirds or one of the other relievers. Speaking of those other relievers, we haven't talked about Kyle Walker much this season, but he is showing some nascent lefty specialist skills. Walker threw 1.2 innings last night in the win. On offense, Ben Paulsen, Orlando Sandoval and Jeremiah Sammy each had two hits.

Casper: W 8-1

Eliezer Mesa had a 4 for 5 night for the Ghosts, he has ten hits in his last four games and is now seven hits ahead of Angelys Nina for tops on the team. Trying to figure out how Mesa measures as a prospect, if at all, is kind of difficult. The obvious cons:

He's repeating the level
He doesn't walk
He doesn't hit for power (4 out of 27 hits for extra bases in an easy power environment)
He doesn't steal enough for a speedster
When he signed, we were told he may wind up in a corner, which makes cons one through four worse.

Honestly, this should be enough to write him off, and it's why we don't really talk about him much in our Pebble Reports. However, it's not quite that simple as there are reasons not to totally dismiss him just yet.

The pros:

Still at least somewhat young (21 in November)
Pro bloodlines. Don't discount this as an X-factor as a familial professional resource has helped several otherwise midgrade prospects hone their skills to the point that they actually deserved MLB jobs. EY2 would be a prime example.
He gets hits. Contact is king at the lower levels and Mesa isn't striking out very much, particularly lately. If you subscribe to the theory that power develops late, why not keep him around and see what happens?
He's playing center field right now and playing it pretty decently.

Chances are he stays what he is as another decent average, no power outfielder that will have difficulty cracking a AAA squad let alone an MLB team. There's little chance he cracks our top 30 prospect list anytime soon, but that doesn't mean we're completely ignoring him. Mesa's in a look but don't touch phase of development, still just an egg.

Thursday Pebble Report: Corpas, Smith and Speier struggle in AAA rehab appearances

Poseidon's Fist — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 13:30:19 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

Manny made his first rehab appearance in AAA last night. He tossed a scoreless inning, but a tenuous one at that.

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AAA Colorado Springs, L 1-6 - (49-37, 1st)

The Sky Sox earned their fourth straight loss, losing 6-1 at the Salt Lake Bees (Angels). Greg Smith (1-1, 3.77) earned the loss in his third start in AAA. He allowed four runs on just three hits and three walks in five innings. Smith walked the first two batters of the game, and both scored, one on a sac fly and one on a 2-run HR by Brandon Wood (17).

Perhaps of more interest were the two relievers who pitched in rehab. Neither pitched well. Ryan Speier gave up three singles and a walk in allowing a run in an inning of work. Manuel Corpas needed 21 pitches to get through one inning in his first AAA appearance, only firing 10 for strikes while walking one and allowing a hit. Sal Fasano bailed him out by throwing out a runner attempting to steal.

Eric Young Jr tripled ito lead off the game and scored on a GIDP by Matt Miller for the only Sox offense.

The two teams take the field again tonight at 7:05MDT in Salt Lake.

AA Tulsa, Off Day - (5-6, 3.0 GB)

The Drillers had their second straight Wednesday off. Tulsa will host the Corpus Christi Hooks (Astros) tonight at 6:05MDT tonight. Keith Weiser (5-7, 4.69) will be opposed by Andy van Hekken (3-2, 4.66).

High-A Modesto, L 7-10 - (4-9, 6.5 GB)

The Nuts continue to struggle in the second half, this time losing a slugfest to the Bakersfield Blaze (Rangers). Brandon Durden got roughed up in his third straight start since returning from Tulsa, allowing 7 runs (6 earned) on 9 hits, 3 BBs and got dinged for 2 HR. Still, the Nuts offense kept the score tied at 7-7 when Durden departed, and Randall Taylor allowed 3 runs (2 earned) over the final three innings for the loss. The Blaze scored five runs after the 5th inning, while the only Nut to reach in that time was a solo HR by Brian Rike (7).

Radames Nazario (4) also hit a HR. Jason van Kooten knocked two doubles and a single and Wilin Rosario laced a three run triple. Modesto faces the Blaze again tonight at 8:45 MDT.

Low-A Asheville, W 9-3 - (9-4, 1st)

The Tourists just keep rolling after a tough first half of the season. Despite being outhit 10-9, Asheville routed the Augusta Green Jackets (Giants) on their way to their fourth straight win and SAL best record of 9-4. Juan Nicasio (3-1, 1.91) scattered eight hits over six innings for the win, Carlos Martinez singled, doubled and drove in three, Ryan Peisel rapped two singles, scored twice and drove in one, and Kiel Roling walked three times, scoring each time on base. A five run seventh, capped by a 2RBI 2B by Martinez secured the win.

The two teams face off tonight at 5:05MDT, starting pitchers TBA.

SS A Tri-City, L 0-4 - (13-6, 1st)

The Dust Devils have run into a buzz saw. After starting the season 12-2, they have lost four of five and surrendered the NOR lead to the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes (Giants). Tri City managed just two hits on the night against the Volcanoes' Wilber Bucardo (3-0, 0.79) and David Quinowski (0-0, 0.84). Both hits were singles by Kevin Clark. Walks by Tim Wheeler and Mike Zuanich summed up the baserunners for the DDevils. Daniel Perkins (1-1, 3.44) pitched decently but allowed two home runs, and Josh Hungerman allowed a run in three innings of work.

Tri-City will host the Everett AquaSox (Mariners) tonight at 8:15 MDT. Rex Brothers and Ben Paulsen should be joining Tri-City tomorrow.

Rookie Casper, L 5-8 - (2-10, 7 GB)

The Ghosts looked as if they might finally break through for that third win, but the bullpen blew a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning against the Missoula Osprey (Diamondbacks). Billy Vopinek recorded two outs and gave up a single with his first three batters, then lost his mind and walked three straight. Clint McKinney came on and allowed three straight singles and tossed a wild pitch for good measure to complete the meltdown.

On the good side, Joseph Scott (1) and Nathan Hines (3) homered, and David DiNatale knocked a 2RBI triple. The Ghosts get another chance at the Osprey tonight at 7:05 MDT. 2nd round pick Nolan Arenado should join Casper tomorrow.

Saturday Pebble Report: Lower levels display great pitching on eve of Independence

Russ Oates — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 13:45:31 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

5 months ago: Fireworks display lights up Coors Field in Denver to mark the Fourth of July holiday after the Colorado Rockies' 5-0 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks in a baseball game in Denver on Friday, July 3, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Colorado Springs, W 8-2
Greg Smith made a start for the Sky Sox but did not factor into the decision. In 4 1/3 innings, Smith allowed two runs on six hits and a walk, while striking out three. Scott Munter, Ben Julianel, Ryan Speier, and Matt Belisle allowed no runs over the final 4 2/3 innings.

Everyone on offense had at least a hit, though Eric Young Jr. at the top of the order and Sal Fasano, Chris Frey, and Jonathan Herrera at the bottom of the order were the one ones to have two hits each. Young and Matt Murton drove in two runs.

Tulsa, L 1-7
Keith Weiser didn't have a great night, allowing five runs on ten hits in seven innings. Three scored in the first, one in the fourth, and one in the seventh (on a homer). He also tied for a team-best two hits last night with Jeff Kindel (who had the only extra-base hit of the night for Tulsa).

Modesto, L 3-7
Bakersfield's three home runs doomed the game for Brandon Durden. Five of the six runs he allowed scored on those three long balls, and three of them came on two homers in the first inning. Carlos Luna allowed the seventh run on a homer.

Hector Gomez stepped to the plate in the eighth with the bases loaded but hit into an out. Charlie Blackmon and Matt Repec each had an RBI.

The Mod Bee reports that this game had the largest crowd in Modesto history.

Asheville, W 5-1
Juan Nicasio dominated Savannah last night to the tune of 12 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings and no runs allowed on two hits. David Christensen hit his 11th homer, a two run shot, in the seventh. Jordan Pacheco went 2-for-3 with a double, two runs scored, and his ninth stolen base.

Tri-City, W 12-0
Continuing the good pitching, Dan Perkins struck out seven in five innings and surrendered only two hits. Kyle Walker came in for the final four innings, struck out two, and gave up only one hit. He picked up his second save.

Alex Feinberg went 2-for-2 with two walks and four RBI. Scott Beerer and Leonardo Reyes combined to go 4-6 with five RBI out of the DH's spot. Mike Zuanich did not have a hit, but he did walk three times and score twice.

The Tri-City Herald has more on the game.

Casper had both games rained out.

AN Chats with Purple Row; A's Welcome Street Home

67MARQUEZ — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 16:00:32 -0000

The A's return from their trip across the Bay...oh, wait, it only felt that way.

Old home week continues as the A's welcome back Huston Street and Carlos Gonzalez to the Coliseum. Traded last November 10 for Matt Holliday, the former A's are enjoying their new surroundings, particularly of late, where the Colorado Rockies have won 17 of 20, this after dropping two of three in Anaheim earlier this week.

Two other ex-A's, Greg Smith and Matt Murton (shipped to Colorado for Corey Wimberly), are currently trying to work their way back to the bigs.

Gonzalez played in 85 games last season for Oakland in 2008, and was generally considered the team's center-fielder of the future. He has struggled- just nine hits in 50 at-bats- since joining the adult squad on June 5.

Street is certain to draw a few cheers from the locals, having saved 94 games in four seasons here, including two in the 2006 ALDS. He has successfully closed out 16 wins in 17 tries for the Rockies, as the team has recently positioned itself for a post-season run.

Street celebrates the A's sweep of the Twins in the '06 ALDS.
Photo courtesy of: http://www.daylife.com/

The Rockies were the darlings of the baseball world two years ago, winning 21 of 22 games en route to their only trip to the World Series (where they were swept by the Red Sox). With the aid of my trusty AN colleagues, I had a chance to chat away with Russ at SBN's Purple Row.

67M: They say lightning never strikes in the same place twice, but less than two years later, the Rockies are riding another breathtaking streak. Considering where they were before the streak, you surely couldn't see this coming, but 70 games in, are the Rockies pretty much where you thought they'd be?

Russ: Well, I wouldn't have predicted that the Rockies would be behind the Giants at this point in the season, but a few games above .500, yeah. Before the season began, I was quite conservative by predicting the Rockies would win the West with 85 victories. Unless the Dodgers completely fall apart, that's not going to be true.

67M: Given that we have a large group at AN who believes that our current manager is a dolt, what has Jim Tracy brought to the table that Clint Hurdle wasn't? Was it just the temperament change as Tracy is much more laid back than Hurdle? Or is Tracy making smarter in-game decisions?

Russ: It's a bit of both. For example, over the years Rockies fans witnessed Clint Hurdle make the oddest decisions when his pitcher came up to bat late in games. He'd send the pitcher out and then after the inning ended, we'd see a new pitcher on the mound. And much to the contrary of what he proclaimed, Hurdle managed like a guy whose job was on the line. The bullpen was completely out of whack as a result. No one knew their role. Huston Street was the closer for a few days, then Manny Corpas for the next, and then back to Street. That eventually stabilized, but with the relievers not having a defined role it created havoc early on. And don't let me get started on Hurdle and the "fundamentals" of baseball that he supposedly worked on in ST.

As for Tracy, he definitely provides a better temperament for this team (such as not putting all the leadership of Troy Tulowitzki and then throwing him under the bus when things go awry. Hey, look what Troy's been doing lately). While I'm certainly not a fan of the bunt, Tracy certainly has utilized it better than Hurdle ever did (i.e., not using it every fifth batter. I exaggerate . . . or do I?)

I guess what it comes down to is what the sine qua non for the Rockies turnaround is. More than anything, it was banishing Clint Hurdle from his position. Tracy just happens to the right guy at the right place at the right time.

67M: I am sure all of AN would like to know your impressions so far of the players Colorado received for Matt Holliday.

Russ: Huston Street has been a favorite of mine since he was freshman at Texas, so I was ecstatic when the Rockies acquired him. I hope he's a Rockie for years. Carlos Gonzalez is great defensively, but he needs to work on his bat. He could not be contained at the Springs, but he hasn't carried that over to the majors (again). Greg Smith, to be honest, has really gotten lost in all of this.

67M: Can you give me your perspective on AN's perceptions of Holliday (did he have a style that could be interpreted by fans as "he didn't care" or did he show some spirit and personality).

Russ: I really can't speak about AN's perceptions on Holliday, but I will say this: the dude loves to play baseball and gives it his all (he did touch the plate, after all).

67M: Baseball analysts often speculate that one of the reasons for the drastic home/road splits for Colorado players is not just because the Colorado altitude increases the distance of their hits, but also that the experience of playing at altitude hinders players on the road. In other words, a Colorado hitter is used to breaking balls not breaking much in Colorado, and then on the road/sea level, off-speed stuff has a much sharper break. So not only are they aided by playing at Colorado, but the experience of playing in Colorado actually makes it more likely that they'll be a bad road hitter, because the experience is so different than that of playing in other parks. Thoughts?

Russ: There's some truth to that, but I also think that the Rockies have historically had a lot of players that just sucked with the bat.

67M: Does their recent run change the way the Rockies view the trade deadline?

Russ: Well, the Rockies certainly won't be sellers at the end of July (oh, well, barring a complete meltdown, which could happen). Before this run, Ryan Spilborghs and Jason Marquis almost went to the Phillies for J.A. Happ and undisclosed prospects. Brad Hawpe's name was also brought up as possible trade chip. Now, not so much.

Will they be buyers? I wouldn't expect a big splash. Maybe a trade for a reliever, but that's about it.

But, please trade Garrett Atkins, Dan O'Dowd!

67M: Street's name has come up. Do you see them moving him?

Russ: I don't see the Rockies trading Street. His possible replacements are out of action. Taylor Buchholz was supposed to be back now, but it turned out that he needed TJ surgery. Manny Corpas recently went on the DL and he still hasn't recaptured that '07 magic.

67M: Who do the A's really have to watch out for this series? Who's struggling of late?

Russ: I'd watch out for Aaron Cook, who just won a franchise-best 59th career win, on Sunday. His sinker was on and he allowed only three base hits. On offense, Troy Tulowitzki has been on a tear this entire month. He's hit seven homers and has an OPS of 1.205 so far.

67M: Aside from our pitching, which really has a chance to be special, there are obvious holes that the A's need to concern themselves with sooner rather than later. What has you excited about being a Rockies fan beyond this season, and what has you worried? Is this a team that can compete for a while?

Russ: I am excited about RHP Jhoulys Chacin and LHP Christian Friedrich making their debuts in 2010, Eric Young Jr. making it to the big league team his father played for, the continued emergence of Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Iannetta.

Somewhere in between: Tyler Matzek. Matzek was just selected with the 11th pick in the draft, but there are doubts as to whether he will sign with the Rockies.

Worried: Jeff Francis - He wasn't himself in 2008 and during spring training we learned that he had a shoulder injury that was still around. Surgery. Out for season. Greg Reynolds - Does this guy have a future in the majors? He was selected second overall in 2006 and showed some good things through 2007, but he fell apart when he debuted in the majors last year.

67M: At AN we love our obscure nicknames; in fact Carlos Gonzalez picked up the name Patrol Craft. Anything like that going on over at Purple Row?

Russ: Dreamy/DOOM. Caber. Dixie. Those are just a few. We call Chris Iannetta "Dreamy" because someone commented that he looked dreamy (some of the girls on the site said his eyes were what made him dreamy). He also got the nickname DOOM because his bat brings doom to other teams. Oh, he also has the nickname of "Our Very Special Boy," but we don't use it much since it sounds creepy. Caber is for Ian Stewart. It's not used much, but someone photo shopped Ian Stewart swinging a caber. Dixie is Seth Smith's nickname since he's from Mississippi.

67M: I have to know, what do you feed Rox Girl?

Russ: We feed her pieces of the Rockies. Her teeth are indestructible and she has a strong constitution.

Awesome. Thanks, Russ!

A's and Rockies tonight at 7:05; Brett Anderson vs. Jason Hammel. Flashfire's got the thread. Oh, and here's an FB entry from an ex- who lives in Colorado, and apparently owns at least one 67M voodoo doll:

Wishin... An A Hopin..An A Prayin...That "Mr. GENERATIONS A's FAN" BRINGS HIS BAD LUCK MOJO to the A's Game 2Nite...lol

Ex-gf's suck.