SB Nation - Aaron Cunningham

On Cunningham, Patterson, And My Lying Eyes

Nico — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 00:21:10 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Aaron Cunningham gets ready to show Bobby Crosby what it means to make contact.

The trouble with "eyeball scouting" is that sometimes you see things but that doesn't mean you can explain them. I'm curious to get the community's take on two especially puzzling major league samples, those turned in by Aaron Cunningham and Eric Patterson, both of whose callups have shared the same phenomena: Swinging through fastballs.

In Cunningham, you have a hitter who has raked at every minor league level and who, as a result, projects to be a pretty good major league hitter. In Patterson, you have a hitter capable of turning AAA into his own "Hey look, I'm Curtis Granderson!"fest. Yet in both, you have players who have not only failed to turn in good major league numbers overall in their cups of coffee (still adding up to small samples, aka "decaf"), but more surprisingly who have looked positively Jack Hannahan in swinging right through fastballs.

Of all things. In the minors, you have plenty of pitchers who can't command their offspeed stuff or throw enough fastballs for strikes. The one thing you generally get, though, is pitchers who can throw a fastball reasonably hard -- so if the thing you can't do as a hitter is make contact with a good single-A fastball, that's going to catch up to you faster than if you can't recognize a major league slider.

So then maybe you argue that major league breaking pitches and changeups are so much better than those of AAA that the Cunninghams and Pattersons are forced to wait longer and can no longer catch up to the good fastball. Yet we know (because they say so and we believe them) that hitters almost all "look fastball and adjust to offspeed pitches."

This is where my lying eyes come in. The stat-savvy part of me knows that Cunningham's track record and age suggest he will in fact hit big league pitching, so then I'm stuck trying to reconcile the scouting report I would have had if I just saw him play but didn't know his age or track record with the one I actually believe: That somehow, for some reason, he will probably come back up at some point soon and start connecting with the same fastballs he missed in earlier stints. Why?

Let me know your thoughts on Cunningham and Patterson, and why sometimes a good hitting prospect can't connect with a basic major league fastball for a while when they actually can. And share your thoughts about other "lying eyes" scouting that confounds your sensibilities. And have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Oakland Athletics Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

John Sickels — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 12:00:30 -0000

by Frank Franklin II - AP

Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Brett Anderson (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Oakland Athletics 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

This list was originally published December 12, 2008. This is a review of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. I'm not doing new grades or lists until I start working on the 2010 book.

1) Trevor Cahill, RHP, Grade A-: 4.66 ERA with 79/64 K/BB in 158 major league innings, 165 hits. Would like to see more strikeouts, but given how much he was rushed this isn't a terrible season.

2) Brett Anderson, LHP, Grade A-: 4.42 ERA with 119/41 K/BB in 147 innings, 150 hits in the majors. Components are better than Cahill's.

3) Aaron Cunningham, OF, Grade B: Hitting .306/.376/.491 with 11 homers, 10 steals for Triple-A Sacramento. Hit .151/.211/.245 in 53 at-bats for Oakland. Will get more chances.

4) Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Grade B: 2.51 ERA with 71/34 K/BB in 61 innings for Sacramento. 6.07 ERA with 81/45 K/BB in 73 innings for Oakland, 85 hits. Very frustrating pitcher. The high strikeout rate shows that he's got a load of potential, and he has nothing left to prove in the minors.

5) Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Grade B: Hit .326/.392/.446 for Double-A Midland, .248/.317/.358 for Sacramento. Needs more Triple-A time.

6) Chris Carter, 1B, Grade B: Hit .337/.435/.576 with 41 doubles, 24 homers, 82 walks, 101 RBI for Midland. Promoted to Sacramento and has hit three homers in his first eight games. Looks like a monster hitter. Just need to figure out position.

7) Jemile Weeks, 2B, Grade B: Hit .299/.385/.468 in 50 games for Class A Stockton, .267/.327/.395 in 25 games for Midland. Slowed by injuries early.

8) Sean Doolittle, 1B-OF, Grade B: Hit .267/.364/.448 in 28 games for Sacramento, went on the DL May 9^th with a knee injury.

9) Michael Inoa, RHP, Grade B-: Missed the whole year with an elbow injury.

10) Vin Mazzaro, RHP, Grade B-: 2.38 ERA with 44/17 K/BB in 57 innings for Sacramento, 5.32 ERA with 59/39 K/BB in 91 innings for Oakland, 120 hits. Could be a decent inning-eater but I've always felt he was overhyped.

11) James Simmons, RHP, Grade B-: 5.42 ERA with 80/46 K/BB in 116 innings, 130 hits for Sacramento. Not wild about these ratios.

12) Henry Rodriguez, RHP, Grade B-: 6.05 ERA With 70/35 K/BB in 42 innings for Sacramento, 37 hits. Excellent K/IP ratio, few hits, but way too many walks.

13) Josh Outman, LHP, Grade B-: 3.48 ERA with 53/25 K/BB in 67 innings for Oakland. Was pitching very well, until hurting his elbow. I was right about him; he's a very good pitcher. Too bad his arm didn't hold up.

14) Brett Hunter, RHP, Grade B-: Severe control problems, 6.85 ERA with 55/59 K/BB in 47 innings for Class A Kane County.

15) Andrew Carignan, RHP, Grade B-: Pitched just two innings for Stockton in June.

16) Corey Brown, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .275/.360/.500 for Midland, limited to 62 games but playing well right now.

17) Andrew Bailey, RHP, Grade C+: 1.88 ERA with 76/22 K/BB in 72 innings, 44 hits for Oakland. Another personal favorite, a guy I liked before other people did.

18) Tyson Ross, RHP, Grade C+: 4.25 ERA with 108/52 K/BB in 131 innings between Stockton and Midland, 115 hits. As written about in my trip report a couple of weeks ago, he's got good stuff but command is wobbly at times.

19) John Donaldson, C, Grade C+: Hitting .271/.382/.415 for Midland, 79 walks. Love the plate discipline, would like to see more home run power.

20) Fautino De Los Santos, RHP, Grade C+: Rehabbing in the Arizona Rookie League, 3.86 ERA with 16/4 K/BB in 12 innings so far.

21) Sam Demel, RHP, Grade C+: 0.61 ERA with 26/9 K/BB in 29 innings for Midland, 3.18 ERA with 30/20 K/BB in 28 innings for Sacramento. Has some command issues but could help sometime next year.

22) Rashun Dixon, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .214/.300/.281 for Vancouver in the Northwest League. Great tools, no skills yet.

23) Jason Christian, SS, Grade C+: Hit .261/.341/.385 with 28 steals in 31 attempts for Class A Kane County. Went on the DL in July.

24) Arnold Leon, RHP, Grade C+: 3.17 ERA with 61/25 K/BB in 71 innings for Midland, 65 hits. Could get a look next year.

25) Petey Paramore, C, Grade C+: Hitting .233/.345/.300 for Kane County. Draws walks, but can't do anything else.

Cahill and Anderson were B+ on the original list but I raised them to A- before the book went to press. Considering their lack of high-level minor league experience, I think they've done OK this year, particularly Anderson. Gio is more problematic, and I don't have any idea what they should do with him frankly. Carter's bat looks excellent. I'm glad that Outman and Bailey have done well since I pushed them as underrated prospects. Too bad about Outman's elbow. I like the 2009 draft, mixing in college players with an upside guy like Max Stassi.

Could it be...? No, it can't be... OMG it really is! It's a Minor League Update!!!

grover — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 13:00:25 -0000

Hello again.

Work called me away for a while and it’s been tough getting back into the groove of things. For those who don’t know, I’m a wildland fire fighter and August got a little busy for those in my career field. So when I disappear again for a couple weeks just remember… I envy your access to in-door plumbing.

Anyways, I want to focus this week’s minor league update on the 40 man roster and the options that are going to have to be decided upon in the coming months. Why do this now instead of waiting until September 1st? The topic tickles my fancy, that’s why. As I seem to have (once again) misplaced my Cap o’ Omnipotence I’m forced to resort to basic logic and common sense reckoning to try and deduce the future roster.

That’s right… none of what I’m about to tell you is guaranteed!

The way I see it, there are 28-29 spots on the future 40 man roster all but guaranteed. On the pitching side, Brett Anderson, Andrew Bailey, Jerry Blevins, Dallas Braden, Craig Breslow, Trevor Cahill, Joey Devine, Gio Gonzalez, Jeff Gray, Jay Marshall, Vin Mazzaro, Clayton Mortensen, Josh Outman, Henry Rodriguez, Michael Wuertz and Brad Ziegler all seem certain to have jobs in the Oakland organization next year. That’s 16 pitchers of varying combinations of success/cheapness/options that aren’t going to be released just to make room on the roster. (There’s a pretty good chance that Outman will open next season on the 60-day DL, opening up an additional spot on the 40 man.) Santiago Casilla and Edgar Gonzalez are both arbitration eligible next season but neither pitched so well that the A’s are going to be eager to give them big pay raises, which could mean either or both players could end up as trade fodder or possibly even released. Dana Eveland is still on the 40 man roster as well, but his poor performance led to a demotion that will keep him from seeing any arby money next season. Unfortunately, Mr. Eveland’s suckitude forced the A’s to use his last option this season; meaning he can’t be stashed on Sacramento’s roster next season without first passing through waivers. Chances are Eveland isn’t going to be one of the 5 best SP candidates for the A’s come Opening Day 2010 and as a lefty with a pulse he’d probably get snapped up by some other team desperate for pitching. Therefore, I think this is good-bye to Mr. Eveland.

As it just so happens, it looks as if the A’s are going to need maybe 3 openings on the 40 man roster just to protect some arms that should attract a lot of interest in the Rule 5 draft. Pedro Figueroa hasn’t advanced past High-A ball but he’s a lefty with a low-90’s fastball. Brad Kilby is another lefty who’s put up back-to-back quality campaigns in Sacramento’s bullpen. Fautino De Los Santos is still trying to bounce back from 2008 TJ surgery but he wouldn’t last long if the A’s made him available for the Rule 5 draft. Jason Ray is in the same boat but I don’t think there’s much risk of someone grabbing him and keeping him on a 25 man roster all season.

There’s also a chance the A’s might be interested in bringing back Brett Tomko or Justin Duchscherer next season. Dan Giese should be fully recovered in time for next season; maybe the A’s are still interested in him as a swing man type. Plus, guys like Sam Demel and James Simmons could be knocking on the door next season and they’d need a spot on the 40 man to do so. Like I said, I could see 3-4 spots going to the guys I just listed and we haven’t even looked outside the organization to find help.

The hitting side of things is even more in flux.

Kurt Suzuki, Landon Powell, Eric Chavez (who?) Mark Ellis, Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Rajai Davis, Scott Hairston, Ryan Sweeney, Jack Cust, Tommy Everidge, Cliff Pennington and Gregorio Petit have spots on the 40 man roster. (Although I’m not sure if Petit has another minor league option available to him in 2010… if someone has a conclusive answer I’d appreciate hearing it.) C Anthony Recker is the most prominent bat in the A’s system that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter and I’m not sure if the A’s would consider his departure to be a great loss. So any Recker fans out there can protect him on their 40 man lists, but I’m thinking the A’s leave him off the protected roster. Chris Denorfia and Eric Patterson are both out of options, so if they aren’t in Oakland come Opening Day there’s a good chance they’ll be playing for another organization in 2010. I can maybe see Patterson as a back-up at 2B and in the outfield but I’ve got to squint and angle my head to one side to see it. I think it’s more likely that the A’s will try to bring back Adam Kennedy to serve as a deluxe back-up option/veteran mentor type.

The real twist comes when you consider the minor league bats that the A’s have in AA or higher that aren’t yet on the 40 man roster. Sean Doolittle, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Corey Brown, Chris Carter and Brett Wallace highlight the next wave of Oakland offense… which could be much more refreshing than the current ripple in the still waters we’ve experienced as of late. Yet again we haven’t looked outside the current organization to determine if maybe there’s another bat to be had.

So bring back Kennedy, add the newbies and you’re looking at 38-39 players on the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 draft. Does anyone see any glaring omissions?

Until the next time...

The Projectability Problem

Nico — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 16:29:18 -0000

Like most fans, I enjoy watching young players and trying to figure out whether they will get better, never progress, get worse. Some guys, like Brett Anderson, will make big strides, some guys, like Travis Buck, will suddenly stall, some guys, like Eric Patterson, will keep getting new chances with old results, and some guys, like Trevor Cahill, and Vin Mazzaro, and Aaron Cunningham, will...?

Here's what I think makes projecting future performance so especially tricky. I had Dallas Braden pegged as a 4th starter because while I liked his demeanor, fastball command, and changeup, I also saw that his fastball lacked great movement, and that his only other weapon, a curve, was primarily effective against lefties but that did he didn't have a lot of weapons against right-handed batters other than to spot the fastball and pull the string with the changeup.

And on this one, I don't think I was exactly wrong. The Braden I projected was a different Braden than the one who has taken the mound in 2009. He learned to add and subtract on the fastball and then he learned a cutter, and I think this pitcher has a chance to be more than a 4th starter. So how do you look at a drafted player, or a young player you see in the big leagues, and project whether or not they will able to add new skills that might elevate their game in important ways?

Will Cahill be able to repeat his delivery better, in which case the pitches he has right now could make him a #2 starter, or does he not have that particular potential, in which case he'll likely stall? Are we only seeing 2/3 of what Mazzaro's arsenal will be as a 24 year old starter, or is he stuck trying to make it with a good fastball, decent slider, and "show me" changeup? Will Cunningham take his excellent swing and minor league numbers to match, and converge them at the big league level due to one of Jim Skaaaaaaalan's famous "timing devices," or will Mark McGwire get to him first and Cunningham won't hit .474 until he joins the Cardinals?

My question for this discussion is: When trying to project a player's future, how do you factor in the additions and changes they might be able to make? Not everyone can learn how to add and subtract on the fastball, or can adjust their hands to suddenly stay back better on offspeed pitches, no matter how good the tutelage may be. Yet a player with poor results now may be a star in the making, if you just imagine the changes they are capable of making between now and when you want to count on them to be good.

I didn't see it coming with Braden, but maybe I should have. Maybe I should have seen a guy with the perfect competitive makeup, excellent fastball command, the intelligence and resolve to learn new things, and realized that he would, and could, learn whatever he needed to learn to get a lot better. What should I see about Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, Aaron Cunningham, Gio Gonzalez, Tommy Everidge, Cliff Pennington, that I can't see now because it hasn't actually happened yet?

Matt Holliday Traded to Cardinals; Brett Wallace Comes Back to A's

Tyler Bleszinski — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 16:37:48 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Oh Mr. Holliday, we hardly knew ye. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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The Matt Holliday era in Oakland is over. OK so Matt Holliday wasn't exactly Ryan Langerhans. Or Michael Barrett in terms of his A's career. But it was pretty damn short.

But you have to love this deal if you're an A's fan. Brett Wallace is considered one of the best prospects in baseball, SB Nation's own John Sickels giving him an A- for a rating (and Sickels is notoriously stingy with his grades). The only knock on Wallace appear to be his defense, but almost everyone seems to think he's going to be a true cornerstone offensive player and sooner rather than later.

I'm guessing the more casual A's fans (are there any of those left?) might not understand why the A's would deal Holliday rather than trying to sign a bat like his to a long-term deal, I think this is a deal that makes a ton of sense for the A's because they're filling a desperate hole at the hot corner. And I think you can safely assume that Eric Chavez is likely done for good. So it took a lot of shuffling of assets (Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street and now Holliday) but the A's finally have what seems like a bona fide long-term answer for their woes on the left-side of the infield. Or at least half of the problem on that side. Now there's always the chance that Wallace might not work out, but I'm still pretty thrilled to be getting a player who appears like as much of a sure thing as you can get in a prospect. And it also gives the A's the opportunity to finally figure out what they actually have in their outfield. Like is Travis Buck for real or was his rookie year a fluke? Will Aaron Cunningham take another step forward?

Now one top prospect doesn't make the A's contenders, but it moves more in line with the young team progressing as they should. The key here is cost control as well. The A's weren't ready to have a guy like Holliday around for a while. And this way they're moving towards that great, young, cost-controlled team that they started building towards a couple of years ago. They clearly have the pitching and now they've addressed one part of the left side of the infield conundrum. They may still address the shortstop position with Orlando Cabrera being dealt as well, but it's been such a question mark for the A's for so long with the will he or won't he Eric Chavez question that it's nice to feel some great hope there.

This is a great deal for the A's and I'm excited to see Wallace don the green and gold.

Two Curious Acquisitions: Hairston to Oakland, Freel to Kansas City; or, the Real Deal with Ryan Freel

devil_fingers — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 18:02:21 -0000

[Note: I'm sure you're all thinking, "boy, that devil_fingers guy is really witty. But sometimes I wonder if there are thoughts he has that he isn't sharing on Driveline's website, or sometimes I just wonder what he ate during the day, or if the Royals are making so many great moves that d_f can't cover them all in two posting, or what his favorite Frank Zappa guitar solos are." Yup, that's what you're thinking. Well, think no longer, as I'm now on twtter: http://twitter.com/devil_fingers

Suicide now.]

I don't think we'll be covering every single trivial transaction, but when Ryan Freel is involved, you gotta comment. Oh, and the As acquired Scot Hairston.

Let's start with Freel.

Ryan Freel

#0 / Third Base / Kansas City Royals

Height: 5-9

Weight: 180

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Mar 08, 1976

That picture makes him look 48 years old.

As a summary, here's a simple analogy by way of Grass Creek, Wyoming:

Russell Branyan:Mike Jacobs::
Ryan Langerhans:Ryan Freel

So... Ryan Freel. Freel was a pretty good player for the Reds a few years ago. Playing a mixture of outfield, 2B, and 3B, Freel put up 2.5 WAR in 2004, 2.2 WAR in 2006, and a very impressive 3.9 in 2006 according to FanGraphs (Rally's numbers are similar, if not as high on 2006). But, well, 2006 was a long time ago. At 33, and coming off of some injuries... An quick in-season Marcels pegs Freel for a .310 wOBA the rest of the season. In the current run environment, that makes him about a -12 hitter over 700 PAs.

As for his fielding, Freel's been a super-utility guyf or years, and it's not clear how the Royals will use him. With CoCo Crisp out, the Royals have been using the underwhelming Mitch Maier in CF. While Freel's career UZR/150 numbers in CF are pretty good, most of that data is from a few years ago. Rally's TotalZone projections for Freel are probably more helpful here: -7 in CF, +1 in the corners. Hs TotalZone numbers and UZR taken together indicate a guy who's probably about avereage at this point at 2B and 3B.

His value as an infielder over a full season: -12 batting + 0 fielding + 2.5 positoin +20 NL replacment level (projections are based on playing tim in the NL) = +10.5 * 85% playing time = ~0.9 WAR player. Over half a season, that's less than half a win. I guess that's worth it as long as the PTBNL never sees any significant time in the majors.

So it's not terrible or great... but what, really, is the point? If the Royals are getting ready to trade David DeJesus (the current LF) or Mark Teahen (playing 3B until Alex Gordon gets back), maybe they need a placefiller for the rest of the season, and with Freel's salary being picked up, that's okay. He might make sense as a utility player for free... hey, good thing they already have an even worse guy like that in Willie Bloomquist. With CoCo Crisp's injury, maybe they're sick of Mitch Maier in CF... yeah, he isn't great, but what's the point? Mitch is probably a 4th OF at best (projects for average defense in CF with a bat bat), but isn't that just a younger, cheaper version of Freel? Even if the Royals are dumb enough to think they still have a chance at the playoffs, Freel is at best barely better than Maier. If they're rebuilding, why not find out what you have in Maier? As a Royals fan, I'm glad the front office got a guy for (seemingly) nothing, but given that he essentially has no upside, the whole thing seems pointless at best.

In summary -- we don't have the whole picture yet of what this trade means. At best, it's a "meh." At worst, it's a sign that the Royals front office doesn't understand the point of scouring the waivers wires or getting undervalued players to build for the future, rather than scrambling for 75 wins again. In other words, the same-old stuff from Dayton Moore.

Wow, I can't believe I spent all that time on Ryan Freaking Freel.

Scott Hairston

#12 / Right Field / Oakland Athletics

Height: 6-0

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 25, 1980

Given that this is another deal where the PTBNL is supposed to be significant, and given that I don't know much about the prospects included in the trade by Oakland (RHPs Ryan Webb and Craig Italiano), I don't have a whole lot to say about this beyond what Jack Moore wrote at Beyond the Box Score and Dave Cameron wrote at FanGraphs. The Padres shed $1.25M salary for some relievers... I'm not sure what the point is, especially given Hairston's price and ability.

Offensively, the quick Marcels gives him a .346 wOBA (although that's probably a bit low given that he's been in Petco Park the last two season). That's about a +10/700 bat. Rally's preseason TotalZone projections have him as a -8 CF, although UZR sees him as above average. Let's call him average. So +10 offense + 2.5 position + 0 defense +20 NL replacement level =32.5 * 85% playing time = ~2.7 WAR player. Yikes... for $1.25M a season and club control. Not sure what the point is for San Diego (who also gave up on Jody Gerut way too quickly). That better be one heck of a PTBNL. For Oakland, they get a guy who helps them now, can fill the void when, I mean IF (ahem) Matt Holliday gets traded, or could is even an attractive trade piece himself. I'm not sure what this means for Ryan Sweeney when he gets back for for Aaron Cunningham down the road. Billy Beane's team may not be racking up the wins the season, but his moves are setting up stuff down the road.

Summing up: the Cubs dump a superfluous player, the Padres shed a tiny salary for no good reason, the As pick up a good player on the cheap, and the Royals make another seemingly pointless trade. These front offices are what we thought they were.

Bottom of the Order Delivers for Twins In Top of the 9th

Jesse — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 06:22:38 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

6 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Francisco Liriano works against the Oakland Athletics in the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, June 10, 2009, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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Starters pitch well, but late-inning heroics tell the tale for Minnesota.

In last night's game thread scouting report on Francisco Liriano, we talked about one main goal: getting the big pitches and big outs when he needed them. It can't be said he did that job completely on Wednesday night, but he at least did it better. Six innings, three runs and seven strikeouts is a good night for Cisco.

After Oakland touched him for consecutive singles in the third he induced a big double play off Orlando Cabrera, limiting the damage to one run. The next inning saw back-to-back doubles off the bats of Matt Holliday and Kurt Suzuki, and an eventual walk to Aaron Cunningham to put runners on first and second. A Rajai Davis single scored the second run of the inning for the A's and gave Oakland a 3-2 lead, but where in the past we saw Liriano struggle to get out of big innings, he came back and got his third out on a four-pitch strikeout.

Already at 71 pitches through four innings, the last thing the Twins needed was for their starter to have another long fifth. Liriano responded with a 10-pitch frame. A scoreless sixth made it a quality start.

For his part, Braden was as advertised. He was much more efficient than Liriano, throwing 96 pitches over his seven innings and throwing 62 of them for strikes. After a 30-pitch third inning when the Twins scored a pair to take a 2-0 lead, he settled down and would blank the Twins offense for four innings before leaving the game. Braden scattered his six hits and two walks while striking out four.

The heroics came late, when Jason Kubel pinch-hit for Carlos Gomez to lead off the eighth inning against the first Oakland pitcher not named Braden. Michael Wuertz threw a pitcher's pitch on his second delivery to Kubel, but Jason muscled it. Wuertz' changeup was low-and-away, still managing to end up over the center field fence. Kubel's ninth home run of the season tied the game at three.

But while the eighth was fun, the ninth was even better.

Joe Crede tripled on the first pitch he saw from Andrew Bailey, a fastball at the letters. A Michael Cuddyer pop-out and a Mike Redmond ground out sandwiched a RBI single from Delmon Young, scoring the pinch-running Alexi Casilla from third. Matt Tolbert worked a walk, a wild pitch scored Young, and Kubel was given a walk of the intentional variety before Brendan Harris came through with his first hit of the night. It was a messy inning, which isn't so bad when it's not your team pitching, and the three-run frame gave the Twins a three-run lead.

Joe Nathan? Shut the door. Of course.

Luis Ayala, Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier and Nathan combined for three scoreless innings, allowing just one hit (off Nathan, of all people) and striking out three.

Any time the Twins put together a complete game, one where the offense, defense, starting and relief pitching combine for a quality game, it's a beautiful thing to see. It was also nice to see the Twins put together a pair of big-offense games back-to-back; they're usually few and far between on the road.

Of all things, the bottom of the order was huge Wednesday night. The 7-8-9 hitters went a combined 4-for-9 with one RBI, four runs and three walks. When the bottom of the lineup can do that, it's an immense help and, clearly, much easier to win.

Minnesota goes for the series win this afternoon, with the opportunity to take three out of four.

Stars of the Game
#3: Matt Tolbert (1-for-2, 2B, 2 R, 2 BB, .155 WPA)
#2: Joe Crede (1-for-4, 3B, .214 WPA)
#1: Jason Kubel (1-for-1, HR, IBB, .329 WPA)

Oakland 4, Twins 3: Swarzak loses control, lead; Twins lose again

Jon Marthaler — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 04:54:03 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Josh Outman flummoxed the Twins to pick up his fourth victory. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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Anthony Swarzak failed to work through the fourth inning, losing an early 3-0 lead, and the Twins dropped their third straight game and their 11th in their last 14 games away from home. Starter Josh Outman was excellent for the Athletics; the young lefthander struck out seven in six innings, and allowed just one baserunner in the innings other than the fourth.

Jack Cust's fifth-inning home run off Luis Ayala proved to be the game-winning run for Oakland, which won its seventh straight game. It's the A's longest winning streak since August of 2006.

It was the fourth that made the difference - really for both teams. In the top of the inning, Outman got the first two hitters easily, but then appeared to come unglued. A single by Michael Cuddyer and a walk by Brendan Harris got the Twins going. Delmon Young followed with a ground ball to deep short, and Orlando Cabrera couldn't get the ball to second base in time to force Harris. With the bases loaded, Outman briefly lost control, walking the near-unwalkable Carlos Gomez to force in a run. Matt Tolbert, the next batter, plonked a bloop single to right to score two more, and the Twins had a three-run lead.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, in the bottom of the inning, Swarzak didn't waste any time in falling completely apart. He walked the first two hitters of the inning on eight pitches, each missing by more than the previous pitch (and each drawing a louder cheer from the small Oakland crowd.) Harris, playing shortstop, made a great play to get a force at third on a Kurt Suzuki ground ball, but Swarzak responded to the out by plunking Aaron Cunningham in the head. (Three inches lower, and Cunningham would have been in real trouble. The outfielder left the game after running the bases, which was probably for the best. Here's hoping he's okay.)

With the bases loaded, struggling former Gopher Jack Hannahan lined a double to left-center, scoring all three runners and killing the Twins lead.

Another great defensive play by Harris got a second out, but the third walk of the inning was enough to chase Swarzak after just three and two-thirds - and likely send the young righthander back to Rochester, presumably to learn how to throw a strike.

And of course, since the Twins were on the road on Monday, this adversity was enough to throw them into a tailspin for the remainder of the night. The littlest things are enough to throw the Twins off - even a fifth-inning solo home run was enough to sink them. After the fourth, Minnesota put a grand total of two men on the bases.

Not surprisingly, once again, it wasn't enough to get the Twins a road win.

Three Twins Black Holes:

3. Delmon Young
I can't stress enough how ludicrous this is: Young was the designated hitter. This is like assigning John Daly to guard your whiskey supply. Anyway, Young struck out and didn't get the ball out of the infield in three trips. He could go up there with anything - a golf club, a boat oar, a wiffle bat, a piano leg - and he'd have an equal chance of getting a real hit: zero.

2. Justin Morneau
Struck out three times against Outman, looking increasingly worse in each at-bat. He's been killing lefties this year, but Outman was just too good.

1. Anthony Swarzak
Couldn't find the plate in the fourth, and if he can't make adjustments, he's going to have to go back to Rochester to learn how.

Three Twins Stars (such as they were)

3. Sean Henn
Shut out the A's for 2.1 innings, something both Swarzak and Ayala failed to do.

2. Matt Tolbert
Two-out, RBI single was an unexpected clutch hit for a team that desperately needs clutch hits.

1. Joe Mauer
A pair of singles in four trips to the plate. Considering the rest of the team combined for a grand total of three hits, I'd say that's something.

Complete Twins vs Athletics coverage

California is Sinking, It Won't be Long Now: an Oakland A's Preview

U-God — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 16:58:44 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Oakland Athletics third baseman Jack Hannahan does his best Brent Lillibridge/airplane impersonation in the fourth inning of the second game of a doubleheader in Arlington, Texas, Friday, May 29, 2009. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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A brief look at an opponent we play this week.

Dates we play them: 6/1-6/4 at home, 8/14-8/16 @ OAK, 9/8-9/9 at home

Offense: A potential lineup: Orlando Cabrera-SS, Adam Kennedy-2B, Matt Holliday-LF, Jason Giambi-DH, Kurt Suzuki-C, Ryan Sweeney-CF, Aaron Cunningham-RF, Bobby Crosby-1B, Jack Hannahan-3B Bench: Jack Cust-DH/OF

Coming up with a lineup for the A's was a little frustrating. It's like they go with a pattern for three days, and then switch. The main reason for all this switching is due to amount of injuries Oakland's roster has had so far this season. On offense, they are currently missing Nomar Garciaparra, Mark Ellis, Travis Buck, and Eric "Elijah Price" Chavez. Since their own writers will have more to say about injuries, you can visit the always solid Athletics Nation after you finish the article (or before if you want to be an ass).

Leading off for Oakland lately is easily the least well-liked former White Sox player since Magglio Ordoñez, Orlando Cabrera. The press box darling is off to a terrible start (.236/.280/.296) and hasn't even been good in the field. His luck should start improving, as his BABIP is more than a bit under his career norm, but he had been hitting over his head the past few seasons so maybe this is what we should expect out of him from now on. This probably isn't what he was hoping for while playing for what may be the final contract of his career (especially in this market). One half of what used to be the scrappiest, grindiest double play combo in baseball, Adam Kennedy has been a godsend for the A's so far this year. Picked up off the scrap-heap from Tampa for a PTBNL, Kennedy was brought in on a minor league contract. That didn't last long, as Mark Ellis quickly got hurt and the A's needed a new second baseman. Kennedy has been a machine so far (.390/.462/.622) and is fourth on the team in homeruns (with 4, which says something about Oakland's offense). Yes, this is completely unsustainable (.424 BABIP) but it is nice to see Kennedy get to have a good season again. He always seemed like a nice guy. Matt Holliday has not been having nearly as rough a start to this season as most media would have you believe. Yes, his April numbers were terrible, but he has been mashing the ball since. There could be mutiple reasons for his shaky start (new league, bigger stadium), but the most likely was just some more terrible luck. His BABIP was .078 below his career norm, which will cripple any hitters numbers. The fact that he still has a 111 OPS+ after that first awful month is a testament to how good of a hitter he really is. If he continues to heat up and the A's continue to falter, expect Holliday to be trading in his green and gold before August.

Oh, Jason Giambi, you never-ending source of entertainment. Giambi is yet another slumping hitter by the bay. Unfortunately for him and his team, his slump might be harder to break than that of his teammates. Giambi turned 38 this year, and I'm not really sure how much more baseball his body can take. The roids did a number on him and old age is not being kind to the slugger. Kurt Suzuki is quietly becoming one of the best catchers in baseball. While he'll probably never reach the tier of guys like Mauer, McCann, and Martin (I just noticed that the three best catchers in baseball all have surnames starting with M), already is second tier and should be one of the top ten catchers in the game for at least a few years. He doesn't have much power (16 career homeruns), but he hits for average, seems durable, and plays solid defense. He's also under team control for quite some time, so Oakland will get his prime years dirt cheap. And now we come to Ryan Sweeney, former White Sock of the future. Sweeney was part of the Swisher trade from last year. His bat isn't all that great and his defense in center is pretty shoddy, but he's young and quick and will be a good enough stop-gap until Oakland finds someone better to replace him. He's probably going to be a fourth outfielder fairly soon. Aaron Cunningham is yet another former White Sox prospect playing for the A's. The better half of the Danny Richar trade, Cunningham came into this season as the fourth best prospect in the vaunted Oakland farm system. He's off to a rough start, but it's only been seven games and he's only 23. His track record says expect the bat to come around, but his fielding will likely remain an issue. Bobby Crosby won the RotY award in 2004 as a shortstop and hasn't done much since. Both his bat and his glove abandoned him, and when OrCa came on board this winter he was forced to become a utility guy or learn some new tricks. Crosby went from being a crappy-hitting shortstop to a crappy-hitting first baseman. Jack Hannahan is awful, and the poor guy doesn't even get to have the distinction of being the best baseball player in the history of his high school. Joe Mauer quickly ended his reign a mere two years later. If Oakland's offense were a rap video, it would be about this bad of one.

Pitching: A potential rotation plus closer: Dallas Braden-LHP, Trevor Cahill-RHP, Dana Eveland-LHP, Brett Anderson-LHP, Josh Outman-LHP and Brad Ziegler/Andrew Bailey-RHPs

This is probably the youngest rotation in baseball, as no starter is older than 25. Braden seems to be the default ace of the group, by having the best combination of experience and talent. His fastball doesn't crack 90 mph and his K:BB ratio is pretty poor. He's done decent this season by limiting homeruns, but a guy who gives up a flyball percentage of 44.2 won't have much luck not giving up homers in a park like USCF. Trevor Cahill, the sole righty of the rotation, came into this season as the number two prospect in the organization. He's doing about as well as you would think a 21 year old pitcher who never pitched above AA would, having a 96 ERA+ so far. His K/9 has dropped dramatically since the call-up, but he has been making up for it by inducing a solid number of groundballs. Dana Eveland came over in the Dan Haren trade and looks to be nothing more than back of the rotation fodder. He's a left-handed innings-eater at best. Brett Anderson is the team's number one prospect. He's struggled so far, but is essentially in the same boat as Cahill, having never pitched above AA. He should improve as the season goes on. Josh Outman has one of the best last names a pitcher could have. He also has a low to mid-90s fastball and at least decent control. He may have pitched a little over his true ability so far, but that could just be him turning the corner as he is only 24 years old. I have both Ziegler and Bailey listed as the closer, because I'm not certain which one will actually be closing. The A's have split their nine team saves among three pitchers, so it's really anyone's guess. Bailey is a young, hard-throwing righty with typical closer stuff (good fastball and slider). Ziegler is the more interesting of the two. Ziggy has an awesome sidearm/submariner style pitching motion which makes his fairly slow pitches much harder to hit. My favorite thing about the guy is that he is just like us, and by that I mean he is a member of SBN and has written blog entries over on Athletics Nation in the past.

Outlook: The A's are a team in transition. Billy Beane seemed to be going into rebuild mode, but then saw how weak his division might be this season and figured why not go for it. So far it hasn't been working too well. The team was denied their new stadium in Fremont (so I guess this really worked) and this season doesn't look like it will end well for the team with my favorite throwback jerseys. That all being said, we play the A's nine times this season. Me picking against us has been working so far, so I say we go 4-5 against them this season with a guarenteed win this Thursday (the Sox are 12-6 with three DNPs over the past 20 years on June 4th). At least the A's can hang their hat on having an awesome mascot.

TotalZone on Center Field Prospects

erik — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 10:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Richard Drew - AP

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Thanks to the efforts of Sean Smith and Jeff Sackmann, we now have TotalZone stats for the minor leagues, which can be found at players' pages at Minor League Splits. You can read up on how useful and reliable these stats are here.

Yesterday we looked at shortstops, today let's tackle center fielders. Charted below are the 2008 stats for the consensus top center field prospects, or at least those who played enough games at the position to qualify.

	Org.	Age	Level	Outs	Chances	Runs	Runs/150
Colby Rasmus	STL	21	AAA	202	368	9	15
Cameron Maybin	FLA	21	AA	230	397	2	3
Dexter Fowler	COL	22	AA	255	482	1	1
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	21	AAA	277	484	6	8
Austin Jackson	NYY	21	AA	214	393	-13	-20
Jordan Schafer	ATL	21	AA	162	301	-1	-2
Greg Halman	SEA	20	AA	137	271	-7	-16
Ben Revere	MIN	20	A	150	260	3	7
Gorkys Hernandez	ATL	20	A+	246	378	26	42
Gerardo Parra	AZ	21	AA	136	255	-6	-14
Fernando Martinez	NYM	19	AA	195	367	-7	-12
Aaron Cunningham	OAK	22	AA	115	250	-10	-25
Engel Beltre	TEX	18	A	271	498	6	7
Julio Borbon	TEX	22	AA	147	236	14	36
Drew Stubbs	CIN	23	A+	179	353	14	24
Greg Golson	TEX	22	AA	270	477	-4	-5
Dominic Brown	PHI	20	A	119	220	2	6
Jon Jay	STL	23	AA	245	395	16	25
Brett Gardner	NYY	24	AAA	178	319	0	0
Che-Hsuan Lin	BOS	19	A	177	312	2	4

Colby Rasmus slumped at the plate last year, but his defense did not. He has been a consistent performer in center the last four years, worth +30 runs. Tony La Russa is probably mismanaging his resources a bit; he's pushing Rasmus to left field in favor of Rick Ankiel, who is projected to cost his team 4 runs in center but projects to be +4 in a corner. CHONE projects Rasmus to be +10 in a corner and +4 in center. Not a real big difference, but an extra couple of runs is an extra couple of runs.
Cameron Maybin on the other hand has been up and down. He was outstanding in 2006 (+18), bad in 2007 (-12) and then around average in '08.
Dexter Fowler has a similar story as Maybin, only with a twist. '06: -16. '07: +18. '08: +1. Could it have something to do with some home park issues going on in Asheville? Anthony Jackson was Asheville's CF in '07, he posted a +6 away and a -15 home. Michael Mitchell was Asheville's regular CF last year and was -17 at home and + 4 away. Fowler was -17 when he was at Ashville, +1 on the road. McCormick Field must be some sort of Bermuda Triangle for center fielders.
Andrew McCutchen has been a rock with +9, +8, +9 for his last three seasons. He ought to push Nate McLouth to a corner spot some point this year.
Austin Jackson is probably the Yankees' future right fielder rather than center fielder. He also was a -14 season in 2006. His bat doesn't profile nearly as well in a corner position. Brett Gardner is not in Jackson's class as far as prospect status, but has posted +13, +1 and +9 at different points in his career.
I've talked about Schafer and Hernandez before. Both have reputations for being superior center fielders, Hernandez has the numbers to back it up. Unreal numbers, actually, and it's not just over one year, he's been worth +53 runs over the last three seasons. Schafer will most likely be the Braves starting CF for 2009, but has been -17 runs since 2005. He had a couple of bad seasons followed by a couple of average ones, so he has improved.
Greg Halman, Fernando Martinez, Aaron Cunningham and Gerardo Parra all are expected to be corner outfielders in the majors according to their scouting reports. TZ wholeheartedly concurs.
Julio Borbon and Jon Jay are your speedy, contact-oriented type of center fielders. Neither have drawn raves for the defense, but both are coming off terrific seasons.
Drew Stubbs' comes with a few questions about his bat, but not his glove. He has been worth +39 runs through '06-'08.

Rally explains that with center fielders, these stats translate well from one level to the next, give or take a run or two. The average center fielder in Low A is about as good as the average major league center fielder.