SB Nation - Wade Davis

MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Halladay for Prospects Only??

raygu — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

3 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays starter Roy Halladay pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning of a baseball game Friday, Aug. 14, 2009 in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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I was all set to go to bed (12:30 am) when I read this from AOL Fanhouse's Ed Price:

#BlueJays prefer minor-league prospects for Roy Halladay, rather than big-league players

Wow! That may bring several teams not considered favorites into the mix for Roy Halladay. Here's a breakdown of some of the top prospects on the teams who have been rumored to have interest in dealing for Halladay:

Rays-Desmond Jennings, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson

Dodgers-Dee Gordon, Chris Withrow and Josh Lindblom

Phillies-Domonic Brown, Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor

Yankees-Jesus Montero, Austin Romine and Dellin Betances

Red Sox-Clay Buchholz, Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland

Angels-Mike Trout, Jordan Walden and Hank Conger

Now we are not sure how many prospects it will take to get Halladay, but this is a list that I am sure Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous has seen and discussed over the past 3 days.

We could see some movement with Halladay if all AA wants is a package of prospects. Stay tuned.

Poll

Which team listed will come up with the best package of prospects in a deal for Roy Halladay?

Tampa Bay Rays Reportedly Interested In Roy Halladay; Wade Davis and B.J. Upton Possible Return?

Tommy Rancel — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 22:24:33 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

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Update: The godfather, Peter Gammons reports the Rays have denied interest in swapping Davis + Upton for Halladay. However, his report doesn't deny the Rays did some tire kicking. which we would all expect them to do. It is fun to think about Halladay in a Rays uniform, but it remains highly unlikely that anything goes past the feeling out stage.

UPDATE: ESPN's Peter Gammons quips via the Hot Stove that "The Rays have flatly denied their interest in discussing Wade Davis and B.J. Upton for Roy Halladay."

In another Fox Sports report, The Rays are actively shopping Dioner Navarro and are likely to non-tender him if a deal isn't reached by Friday's deadline to tender a contract. Neither scenario, trade or non-tender, is a surprise.

Foxsports

The Rayshave asked Toronto officials about Halladay, according to one major league source, and might be willing to offer star pitching prospect Wade Davis and outfielder B.J. Upton.

Toronto could then flip Upton to a third team.

This isn't the first time that the Rays have shown interest in the Toronto ace. They made a strong push in July, sources said.

Halladay would need to waive his no-trade clause in order for the deal to happen, and it's not clear if he would be willing to do so. But he resides in the Tampa Bay area, so spending one season with the Rays could appeal to him.

So much for ragtag catchers and recycled relievers. While this report seems to come out of nowhere, it seems entirely possible that the Rays would show interest. As the report states, the Rays made a play for Halladay this summer, so it's natural that they would try again. As is the case with 99% of these scenarios it probably won't play out, but stranger things have happened.

For such a trade to take place, it would be a clear indication of the Rays ditching their "thinking long-term" efforts in order to hit big right now. This type of move would be very uncharacteristic of the Rays. Andrew Friedman has yet to acquire an established big name via trade, and it would be really hard to see him doing so within the division. A year of Roy Halladay would be great, but at the cost of three years of B.J. Upton and six years of Wade Davis, I just don't see him doing that.

The Rays could very well have interest in Halladay, but could also be doing their do diligence and seeing exactly what Toronto is asking just to keep tabs on the other teams vying for his services or try and raise the market for one of their competitors.

Part II: Interview with Alex Eisenberg of Baseball-Intellect

Bryan Everson (The Royalty of Roto) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:45:17 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

2 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Wade Davis prepares to throw to a Baltimore Orioles batter during the fifth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 17, 2009, in Baltimore. The Rays won 3-0. Davis threw a four-hit shutout to earn his first major league win. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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About three weeks ago, I had a chance to converse with Alex Eisenberg, who's in charge of Baseball-Intellect, focusing scouting young prospects and analysis of player's mechanics. If you want to check out Part I of that interview you can do it right here. With that, I bring you Part II of that interview, which focuses on some prospects that you've probably read in Ray's AFL updates.

TROR: Give me one prospect from each league that you think aren't being talked about or rated highly enough.

Alex: Oh man...I can't limit it to just one.

I don't know where other publications will rate these players, but here are some guys that under the radar, sleepers, and/or aren't household names.

- Nick Hagadone, LHP, Cleveland Indians - He's highly regarded, but people sleep on him. He's coming off TJ surgery and he's a bit old for his level, but he's a lefty with plus stuff who misses bats, keeps the ball on the ground...command is a bit of a question mark, but it projects to be solid enough. The Indians are being very conservative with him. He could be a front of the rotation starter or a multi-inning reliever out of the bullpen.

- Ryan Westmoreland, CF, Boston Red Sox - Not sure he'll be underrated, but he's not a household name. He's got an excellent blend of power and patience and the Red Sox are extremely high on him. Durability is a concern as he suffered a fractured clavical, just a year after tearing his rotator cuff.

- Zach Stewart, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays - He'll be the Blue Jay's No. 1 prospect, so he won't be underrated but he's also not a household name. Potential No. 3 starter or top flight set-up man...two plus pitches, ability to miss bats and get ground balls.

- Paul Demney, RHP, Washington Nationals - Not a lot of buzz surrounding Demney, but he's a sleeper. I don't think he'll be highly rated by other publications, but we'll see. Two good pitches (fastball and curve), but he's inconsistent. Could be a power arm out of the bullpen, but might be able to stick as a starter if he can improve his change-up and command.

- Fautino de los Santos, RHP, Oakland Athletics - Once a top-50 prospect, he fell off the face of the earth after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He came back briefly and his velocity was reportedly excellent. He was a potential front of the rotation starter before going down with an injury, but some felt he might be better suited for the bullpen. Given his age, it wouldn't surprise me if the A's try to fast track him to the majors by putting him in the bullpen.

- Chris Nelson (SS, Colorado Rockies), Jarek Cunningham (INF, Pittsburgh Pirates), Ivan De Jesus Jr. (SS/2b, Los Angeles Dodgers) - All were injured for most of 2009, all will be underrated because of it. Cunningham is the biggest wild card of the group because he's the least experience, has only experienced success in Rookie League ball, and has the most questions about his defense. But he's an excellent athlete and offers a lot of projection.

- Allen Webster (RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers) - Haven't seen him, but there is a lot of buzz surrounding him. Projectable, but already has good fastball velocity, good breaking ball and he throws strikes. He's somebody who could rise up prospect lists very quickly.

- Zach Britton (LHP, Baltimore Orioles) - Extreme ground ball pitcher with an ability to miss bats. Velocity increased over the past year and he's working on being better able to command his better stuff. Has a slider that has also developed well over the past year. He projects as a potential No. 3 or 4 starter.

TROR: Building on that, name one batting and pitching prospect in the AL that you think makes the biggest impact in 2010, and what about for the National League?

Alex: Again, I'm going to break the rules and name a couple for each league:

AL Hitters

- Justin Smoak (1B, Texas Rangers) - Despite a pretty poor Triple-A debut, he's still an elite prospect

- Brett Wallace (3B/1B, Oakland Athletics) - I don't see him as highly as others, but he can still rake and he's an excellent pure hitter

- Desmond Jennings (CF, Tampa Bay Rays) - Prototypical lead off hitter could be Carl Crawford's replacement.

AL Pitchers

- Zach Stewart - Mentioned him earlier, should have an immediate impact if he starts out in the bullpen

- Jeremy Hellickson and Wade Davis (RHP, Tampa Bay Rays) - Davis gave us a glimpse of what he can do late in the season. Hellickson doesn't have the raw stuff of Davis, but he commands his pitches extremely well and he has an excellent feel for pitching.

- Hector Rondon (RHP, Cleveland Indians) - Quality pitching prospect with a solid repertoire of pitches that he commands well. He should compete for a rotation spot out of Spring Training this year.

NL Hitters

- Jason Heyward (RF, Atlanta Braves) - The obvious choice as he's the best prospect in baseball.

- Buster Posey (C, San Francisco Giants) - The other obvious choice, a top-5 prospect that is major league ready now.

NL Pitchers

I don't see many potential impact pitching prospects that are ready in the NL.

Stephen Strasburg, but will the Nats be more conservative with him? Jaime Garcia perhaps, but he's coming off TJ surgery though he looked pretty good in his return last year. Daniel Schlereth, a hard throwing lefty out of the bullpen with Arizona is another one. There just aren't many impact guys right now. I see a lot more talent at the lower levels.

Madison Bumgardner is another guy that could make an impact, but his stuff needs to return to what it was prior to last season.

TROR: Thanks for your time, Alex.

Obviously Alex mentioned some of the major prospects that are going to be talked about as making immediate impact at the Major League level in 2010, but hopefully he re-affirmed some beliefs on those guys, and also touched on some guys that maybe haven't been talked about as much. It's a good primer for getting an idea of what kind of pitcher these guys are if you weren't familiar with them already, as well. Thanks again to Alex, and go check out his site if you haven't already.

Top 30 Starts of 2009 - Part 6

Andy Hellicksonstine — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 12:00:19 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

Longoria: Dude, relax, Andy H just said you had the two best starts of the year. Garza: F*$# YEAH ::spit:: (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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This is it, for those of you that have been patiently waiting to see the best Rays pitching performances of the year. If you read through the last installment, then you noticed that I have moved to a scoring system. Let's take a look at the standings:

Shields	104
Niemann	61
Price	60
Kazmir	40
Garza	29
Davis	17
Sonnanstine	14

James Shields has been running away with it based on the quantity as well as the quality of his starts. Jeff Niemann has also had a lot of starts in here, but less so of the top-tier quality. Wade Davis has had a few appearances, which is surprising since he only had a few total on the year, but when we think of great performances we think of Matt Garza. So far he has had three starts looked at (7, 28, & 29). I found this somewhat surprising, because as some of you know I track game-to-game FIP and wOBA for pitchers to reach an estimate of deserved wins. Matty tore up the wOBA wins approaching 20 and was a tick behind Shields on the FIP-side. Well, if you're a fan of The Crane, then you won't be disappointed as he comes on like gangbusters here. First up however...

5) James Shields at New York Mets on June 20 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.00

2.01

0.155

This was before the Mets became a full blown AAAA team so you can't chalk it up totally to that, but only allowing three guys on the bases is quite the achievement over 7 full innings. Broken record alert, but when James keeps the ball in the yard, he is as close to an ace as we've ever had. He needed to be on that day as he was facing Johan Santana, whom is a certified ace and bound to give the Rays fits being weird-handed with a great change. After giving up the run in the 2nd he would mow down 16 of the next 17 before being yanked for Mountain Man Dan Wheeler to start the 8th. I like that Shieldsy only threw 5 cutters on the night, only one of which was in the zone:

via brooksbaseball.net

He was basically 2:1 on the fastball:changeup and closer to 3:1 on the fastball:curve/slider. This is what I like to see out of James. He was able to work ahead throwing 66% strikes on the night with his change leading the way in whiffs. See the highlights link above for grown-men looking like little leaguers.

4) Wade Davis at Baltimore on September 17 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.59

0.185

Wade was told that if he threw strikes that it would come, so as he eased their pain, he was able to go the distance. He didn't have a catch with his ghost of a father after the game, but Wade did give us a glimpse of the future in an absolute gem of a performance. Coming off a brilliant debut, and a thorough thrashing in his sophomore start, most folks weren't sure what to make of Big Nasty (Yes, I am coining this nickname for Mr. Davis). They were rewarded with a CGSO. The fastball sat at 92 while issuing 5 whiffs (10 total on 124 pitches). He threw a ton of fastball, both in, and out of the zone, but his curve, slider, and cutter he had great control of throwing a combined 34 strikes on 44 pitches with 5 whiffs. The video above shows just how filthy his breaking ball is. I like his fastball, because when it's on it has that same ride that Garza gets off the plate to lefties. They can either leave it there and take the occasional strike or foul it off and then get fooled on the breaking ball.

via brooksbaseball.net

That speed chart is absolutely gorgeous. I want to make babies with it. Big Nasty's hardest pitch came in the low 120's while maintaining velocity throughout the game. Granted it was his 3rd start, but he had pitched all year at Durham, so it's not like he was completely fresh. At the moment, he compares very much to Matty Garza, in my mind. A little bigger, the fastball isn't quite as good, but the bendy stuff brings women to their knees. Wade reminds us that with the death of one season comes the hope and promise at the birth of the next. Personally, I can't wait to see him next year.

3) Jeff Niemann vs. Kansas City Royals on June 3 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.48

0.084

The Big Nyquil barely had to break a sweat in earning his 1st CGSO of the season on a two-hitter. He threw his fastball and slider for strikes, while dropping his curve out of the zone on his way to garnering 12 whiffs. In his 9 innings of work, the most pitches he threw in an inning was 14 in the 5th with 4 separate innings of 9 pitches. That is straight dominance averaging 11 pitches/inning against a Major League ballclub (OK the Royals.) I love the following chart:

via i273.photobucket.com

I have shaded the inner-part of the plate because you can see that Niems was just pounding fastballs in there. He threw a couple of back-door sliders, and two curves, but for the most part he was blowing it by righties on the inner 1/8 of the plate. Speaking of the fastball, he threw 3 of his first 10 pitches over 94 MPH, before settling in to sit at 92. Congrats on a phenomenal start, Jeff, let's see more of these in 2010.

2) Matt Garza at Toronto on July 24th Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.15

0.167

Here's a Matt Garza performance that shows why I'm not a fan of looking at R/ER as the sole indicator of a great performance. Yes, he gave up two runs. After retiring the first six batters, in the bottom of the 3rd, Garz gave up a lead-off single to Rios whom managed to get to 2nd on a throwing error by Longo. Garza induced a flyout to center and then one to right, in which, Rios moved over to 3rd. A 2-out single by Scutaro brought the run in and a double by the next batter, an on-fire Aaron Hill, led to the second run coming in.

Now think about this for a minute. Garza gave up two singles and a double in the inning and in the other 8 he only gave up another single and a double with no walks on the entire game. My point is that I don't think 8 brilliant innings should be completely thrown out because of one inning where he got a little nicked. This same thing can be applied to James Shields. In a typical 7 inning performance from James he will have 4-5 outstanding innings, 1 clunker, and 1-2 where he has to work himself out of trouble. Major League hitters are so good at making adjustments that virtually every pitcher will get touched here and there. The good ones find ways to minimize the damage and then keep their pitch counts down in other innings, as Matty did throwing 13 COMBINED pitches in the 5th and 6th.

How pretty is this:

via brooksbaseball.net

From pitch 90 on, he through all but 4 fastballs while virtually linearly increasing his velocity until the end. Garza is a stud because this is a common theme with him. He can bring ched whenever he wants including late in the game. On the game, he got 10 whiffs throwing mostly the fastball (72%) and the slider (16%). If you watched the video above, then you saw that his change was a devastating weapon, despite only being thrown 6 times. I saw two guys just frozen by it's unexpectedness and another trying to cool off the fans with his mighty swing-and-miss.

A Longo two-run double in the top of the 10th allowed Maddon to turn the ball over to the Iceman. Garza's day was finished, but he still picked up the win. I found this pretty interesting:

via i273.photobucket.com

I count 5 K's in the upper-left hand portion of the quadrant, while there is a double, a single, a lineout and most of the other decent contact in the overlap of the 2 zones. Not surprising that when you throw it down the middle guys are going to get wood (on it). I really like all the contact (or K's) that he got on the fringes of the strike zone. Even the best stuff means nothing if you can't control AND COMMAND it. It looks like on this day, Matt Garza had great stuff and knew how to use it.

1) Matt Garza vs. Boston Red Sox on April 30 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.67

0.93

0.068

This shall forever be known as the "Jacoby Ellsbury's Parents Should Never Have Met" game. Garz faced one over the minimum due to a nifty double play, that a certain elf-like second sacker didn't appreciate, against one of the best offenses in the Majors that was running on pure ethanol at the time. The video shows guys whiffing, guys getting rocked to sleep, and a bunch of grown men taking half cuts and check swings, the ultimate white flag. Matty didn't throw a change, relying on the fastball (75% usage, 7.4% whiffs), slider (15% usage, 25% whiffs), and curveball (10%).

via i273.photobucket.com

Now I'm no artist, so the ovals aren't exactly a bench-marked size to match with all these other graphs, but I see one pitch, YES ONE, that's in the overlap area of this chart. Interestingly, using the outcomes chart below, it looks like that lone slider was a strikeout. Perhaps this is an example of game theory, in that, he hadn't gone to that well all day, and the batter was stunned when he saw a beautiful slider nestle it's way right in there. Stumbling upon this way to look at pitches just today, I can't confidently say anything broadly, but my guess would be that if you stay out of that center diamond, you're going to find great success. Brooks has Garza's fastball moving right-to-left 2.69 inches and riding 11.55 inches up, compared to a normal ball. That can help explain all those fastball in (to righties) and up in that upper-left hand quadrant. I only see two fastballs in the zone below the 2 foot line (Pedroia's eye-line if it helps you to visualize) with many curves out of the zone. Though he didn't get any whiffs, using these two starts I think you can see a pattern where Garz throws the slider for strikes and tries to get whiffs with the curve out of the zone. This has to create a synergistic reaction where the batter sees bendy stuff and can't form an opinion on whether it'll be in the zone or not, just based on pitch type.

Without the shading this time, you can see that The Crane was living on the fringes of the plate for the deciding pitch of most PA's:

via brooksbaseball.net

Much like the #2 start on the countdown, Matt had over-whelming stuff on this night, but he also used it correctly. He won't always sit at 92.7, touching 95 with the heater, but if Matt can throw to the corners and live on the fringes of the plate (assuming competent umpiring, always a crapshoot there) he can take that next level in 2010. We've seen absolute brilliance from Matt Garza on many occasions, but his good numbers have kind of stagnated in the good range. Looking at starts like these last two, he has all the weapons to get himself into the great level of starters. For the team's sake, I hope that this upcoming season is the one where he takes that step forward to become the borderline ace that we've only seen glimpses of in the past.

This concludes the top-30 starts of 2009. I hope you enjoyed my labor of love. Here are the final standings for our pitchers:

Shields

Niemann

Garza

Price

Davis

Kazmir

Sonnanstine

130

Pretty clear who our number 1 starter is, whether you agree with his performance or now, James Shields is a baller of the highest order. In 2009 Niemann and Garza appear to be competent #2's with Price a clear #3 starter. Kazmir and Sonnanstine were pretty much a drag on the entire pitching staff, but luckily one's gone and the other is already pumping iron and running steps. The WILD CARD! here is Wade Davis. We saw some awesome stuff, albeit in a small sample. If he can match what Niemann or Price gave us in 09, while the other two continue to progress, we're looking at a pretty filthy starting rotation.

As always, thanks to Baseball-reference.com, brooksbaseball.net, and MLB.com, now that we are into the worst part of the calendar year, something that I find interesting is to go on MLB.com and watch some of their videos. Find a player you like and they will run one-after-another throughout the season. So many games get played that it's easy to forget about some of the better plays that were made. It's free-of-charge, and I've only seen about one advertisement per 100 videos.

Matt Garza's Slider is Filthy

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:01:49 -0000

These are all pitches thrown at least 200 times (except in Wade Davis' case, the limit was 50). Note: Whiff% is (Swinging Strikes/Total Pitches)*100 and rounded to two decimal points.

To avoid making this a data dump, here's some commentary:

James Shields doesn't have wowing stuff. If you've watched him since 2006 then the newness factor has also wore off. In ways he's undervalued by his own fan base because when watching him few things amaze you. He's a workhouse, a pretty dependable one, but he throws a fastball that averages a little over 90 MPH and an assortment of other pitches. Somehow, someway, Shields has three pitches within the top six. The change-up that made him, a curve, and his cutter. His slider and other fastballs rank far lower and seem to contribute to his so-so reputation. It doesn't help that when he seems to miss with those pitches they wind up in the sky and land far away either.
Matt Garza has the most contactless pitch on staff. The pitches people really know him for - his hard heat and knee-buckling curve - are less impressive. This seems odd.
Wade Davis is just as human as anyone else in this list, he just looks better while pitching. Small sample size and all, I'm not sure how he can possess this stuff and have such mediocre whiff rates in Durham.
Jeff Niemann uses his fastball something like 70% of the time. This is bad because A) he becomes predictable and B) it's his worst pitch. Unsurprisingly, it rates near the bottom of the list. Shields has probably never heard of DRB, but please, James, if you're somehow reading this, teach Niemann the ways of working around your fastball.
David Price's change-up was his least hittable pitch. What?

Fun With Math and Wade Davis' Walk Rate

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 17:01:27 -0000

Per StatCorner, Wade Davis threw 37.4% balls in Triple-A this season and 37.1% balls in the majors. His unintentional walk rates were 8.8% and 7.9% respectively. I wanted to know whether or not we should expect that walk rate to creep up a bit, so I took every starting pitcher in the 37%-38% ball range - surprisingly a lot -- and produced a raw average*uBB%. That average was 7.98%.

I love when it happens like that.

*This simply means I didn't weight the pitchers based on pitches thrown. That probably changes the figure, but not overly much; I set the qualifying bar at 300 xOuts/PA.

Data used:

Pitcher	Ball%	uBB%
Davis AAA	37.4	8.8
Davis MLB	37.1	7.9
Blanton	37	6.5
Penny	37.1	6.8
Holland	37.1	7.7
Looper	37.1	6.7
H. Bailey	37.2	10.2
Kazmir	37.2	9.5
Lester	37.2	7.6
Huff	37.3	7
Sowers	37.3	9
Bush	37.3	7
Wellemeyer	37.3	9
Hampton	37.3	8.1
Jackson	37.3	7.4
Harden	37.3	10.2
Price	37.4	9.8
E. Santana	37.4	7.1
Billingsley	37.5	9.4
Padilla	37.6	8.2
Ohlendorf	37.6	7.2
West	37.7	7.2
Guthrie	37.8	6.8
Pelfrey	37.8	7
Marquis	37.8	7.9
Porcello	37.8	7.3
Cook	37.8	6.8
Washburn	37.8	8.3
Cueto	37.9	8
C. Zambrano	37.9	9.8

What Did The Rays Lose By Replacing Scott Kazmir with Wade Davis?

Tommy Rancel — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 10:00:29 -0000

In terms of on the field production I would say that answer is nothing. There are many that feel that the Scott Kazmir trade had an emotional effect on the team, but unless you know of a way to equate emotions into wins that argument is not one worth having since there is no answer. However, we do have the numbers on Scott Kazmir and his successor Wade Davis. Sure, Andy Sonnanstine made the first start in Kazmir's place, but Davis has since taken that spot and looks poised to carry the torch into 2010.

Scott Kazmir has been very good since going to the Angels. He has not only kept up his post DL form, but has improved in terms of home runs allowed and walks given up. If a team is looking for a pitching coach this off-season (Rays?) I don't know how Rick Peterson isn't the first guy getting that call. The good news for the Rays is Wade Davis has been just as good and even better in some categories.

	IP	FIP	tRA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	WAR
Kazmir w/Angels	31.1	2.99	3.01	6.61	2.59	0.29	0.269	1
Davis	24.1	2.31	3.54	10.36	2.96	0.37	0.319	1

Of course small sample size rules apply here, but Wade Davis has held his own against the LA version of Scott Kazmir. In terms of WAR they are dead even. Davis's FIP is over a half run better thanks to a wonderful K/9 and just one home run allowed. Kazmir's FIP also benefits by one home run allowed in his 31 innings of work, but his K/9 has dropped from 7.38 with the Rays to 6.61 with the Angels. The good news for Angels fans is his walks have also dropped (nearly 1.5 per nine) and his average velocity is up to 92.3. It looks good for Mike Butcher, who was Kaz's pitching coach in 2006, but not so good for Jim Hickey, who is now regarded by many as the butcher of the current Rays staff.

Kazmir has the better tRA thanks to a line drive rate of 18.3% which is right in the neighborhood of his career total. Davis has a LD% of 29% in his first four starts. That obviously wouldn't last over the course of a larger sample size nor would his low LOB% which stands at 56.4% compared to the 80.4% Kazmir has with the Angels. Kazmir has also benefited from a lower than normal BABIP, while some would say Davis has been a smidge unlucky, but not much.

There are plenty of reasons for the Rays September swoon: Offense, Bullpen, fatigue, but swapping Scott Kazmir for Wade Davis in the rotation was not one of them.

Fantasy Baseball: On the spot

Ian, yo — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 00:13:04 -0000

As we approach the end of the fantasy baseball season, you may be looking out for spot starts more than normal. Over the last few weeks, I've been spot starting and keeping an eye on matchups and it's been pretty successful. The basis of this strategy should be to start guys against offenses such as the Pittsburgh, Arizona, San Diego and the Kansas City's of the MLB. I'd also keep in mind where these matchups are taking place. I'm likely taking my chances of someone pitching in Petco Park in San Diego over someone starting at Coors in Colorado. For some stats on park factors, I recommend checking out this. Over the last week, I managed to get the following starts by using a combination of these strategies.

Kevin Correia @ Pittsburgh :7 IP, 1 W, 0 ER, 6 H, 5 K

Clayton Richard @ Pittsburgh: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 K

Brian Duensing vs. Oakland: 7 IP,1 W, 8 H, 0 ER, 6 K

Robinson Tejada @ Detroit: 5 IP, 1 W, 2 H, 1 ER, 5 K

Over the next week, you'll find a decent amount of matchups that could help you on your push to fantasy gold.

Jorge De La Rosa: I'm adding him in after some further thought. Post All-Star break, De La Rosa has put up an ERA of 2.89 while winning 9 of his 12 starts with 80 K's in 78 innings. I have hesitation due to his 4.77 ERA at home this season but I'll likely take my chances against a poor San Diego offense.

Bronson Arroyo: Not owned in a ton of leagues and over the last month has posted an ERA of 2.08 in 43.1 innings. He'll see the Pirates on Thursday the 24th and in his last start against them had a solid line of 8 IP, 4 H, 4 Ks.

Clay Buchholz: Buchholz Hasn't faced the Royals this season but has done a fairly decent job of shutting down better offenses this year. Over his last three starts, he's allowed fewer than one run against the Orioles and Rays and on the season has allowed less than two earned runs again the Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees, Tigers and the Athletics. He's had two games where he gave up seven earned against the Orioles and White Sox but has been good overall. Buchholz's lack of experience against Kansas City could prove beneficial and allow him to be a solid spot start this week.

Hiroki Kuroda: In his 19 starts, Kuroda has had four games where he's given up more than three earned runs. Washington ranks near the middle of the pack in runs scored but Kuroda has put up decent numbers against some of the better offenses (St. Louis, Florida, Milwaukee, Chicago White Sox) so I have no huge concerns starting him. Just beware that the Washington offense is fairly underrated and could give anyone a hard time at any moment.

Brett Anderson: He'll get a Texas offense that ranks 10th in the AL in the month of September at home in a largely pitching favorable park in Oakland. Anderson has big K potential, striking out ten Indians on September 18th. Over the last month, Anderson's pitched 31 innings and 30 K with an ERA of 2.90 and WHIP of 1.10. He's not owned in many leagues and could easily be a successful spot starter for you.

Honorable mentions: Ryan Rowland-Smith @ TB, Wade Davis vs. SEA at home, Jonathan Sanchez @ AZ, Tim Wakefield @ KC, Brian Duensing @ CWS.

Prospect Prelude: Jeremy Hellickson

Jeremy Kempter — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 22:58:39 -0000

The front office here at fake teams has given me the call-up.

I’m going to write about minor leaguers and prospects, pre- and post-hype, coming to a big league city soon.

From now until the end of the season, we’re going to run down some kids to consider stashing away as keepers for 2010, assuming you have the room. (And I’m assuming you’re in a keeper league; if you’re not, you’re missing out, big time.) Roster these guys now – let’s also they are available already in Yahoo or whichever site you use – and gauge their value when the hype starts kicking into high gear next spring.

I’m not going to waste your time waxing poetic about Stephen Strasberg or Neftali Feliz or even Brian Matusz. I’m addressing deeper mixed leagues where you need to do your homework to stay ahead of the pack. After all, it’s a lot less expensive to land a player before he becomes a star than after.

Our first installment is on Jeremy Hellickson, a 22-year-old right-hander in the Tampa Bay organization. He was drafted in the fourth round in 2005 out of his Iowa high school.

I actually drafted his teammate Wade Davis heading into this season and waited impatiently as the Rays did their usual foot-dragging to promote their talented youngsters. Needless to say, I dropped Davis, he was immediately scooped up and I’ve been kicking myself ever since.

But, it seems, Hellickson could be better.

Baseball people are split on Hellickson’s potential. His velocity (typically topping out at 93 mph) doesn’t dazzle like Davis’ (95 mph), and he’s not the protypical 6-foot-5 either. (He goes about 6-1, 185 pounds.) He's been compared to Roy Oswalt or Tim Hudson, for his size, and his delivery looks a little like Brad Penny's.

Hellickson can crank it up to 94-95, to be fair, but his 79 mph changeup is more effective when it is coupled with a free-and-easy low-90s fastball because his release looks identical. He works off his fastball, but his change is his out pitch. He also has an above-average curveball, and he is working on a sinker.

The digits that really do Hellickson justice are 2009’s 9-2 record, 2.45 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .178 BAA, 132 strikeouts, in 114 innings across Double- and Triple-A.

And he’s been rollin’ lately, a regular Hellickson on wheels. Check out the strikeout totals from his last four starts: 10, 10, 12, 9. His walk total during that stretch? Five.

And this isn’t a one-year fluke. In five minor league seasons, he’s got a 37-13 mark, 2.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 507 K’s and 100 BB’s in 461 innings.

Of course minor league numbers don’t always translate to the bigs. Just ask Yusmeiro Petit.

But Hellickson’s numbers are so sparkling, they could be scuffed up in The Show and still shine. I mean, if you know how to be that successful, some of it has to translate. Plus, he has been praised for his bulldog mentality and even-keeled maturity.

There’s no telling when the aforementioned slow-moving Rays brass will promote this starter to the major league rotation, seeing that James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price and Wade Davis all stand in the way.

But injuries and trades happen, and right now Hellickson can be had for free (or pretty cheap) and is sure to be in or around the top 10 of most prospect lists next spring.

Prospect Profile: Wade Davis

John Sickels — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 12:01:50 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

2 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Wade Davis works against the Baltimore Orioles during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 17, 2009, in Baltimore. The Rays won 3-0. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Browse more photos »

Prospect Profile: Wade Davis

Here is a look at Tampa Bay rookie Wade Davis, getting a September trial with the Rays.

Wade Davis was drafted by the (then) Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the third round in 2004, out of high school in Lake Wales, Florida. He had a University of Florida scholarship, but signed quickly with a home state team and was assigned to Princeton in the Appalachian League. He performed poorly, posting a 6.09 ERA with a 38/19 K/BB ratio but 71 hits allowed in 58 innings. He was big (6-5, 220), but had inconsistent velocity, hitting 94 MPH on good days but often working in just the 88-89 range, needing to improve his mechanics to get the most out of his body. He did flash a plus curveball at times. I rated him a Grade C in the 2005 book, noting his long-term potential but also his poor early performance.

The Rays did not push Davis in '05, sending him to extended spring training to work on his mechanics and conditioning, then moving him on to Hudson Valley in the New York-Penn League in June. He responded to the handling by posting a 2.72 ERA with a 97/23 K/BB in 86 innings, allowing 75 hits. Note the greatly improved strikeout rate. His velocity was up compared to rookie ball, a consistent 90-93 MPH and touching 95-97. He also improved his curveball, and also threw some sliders and changeups, though both pitches needed work. I gave him a Grade B and projected that he would emerge as one of the top pitching prospects in the game in '06.

Davis moved up to Southwest Michigan in the Midwest League in 2006, and made a nice one-two punch with lefty Jacob McGee. Davis went just 7-12 due to poor defensive and run support, but posted a 3.02 ERA with a 165/64 K/BB ratio in 146 innings, allowing 124 hits. He was throwing 95-97 MPH early in the year, but lost some velocity as the summer progressed and the innings built up. Nevertheless, I was pleased with his performance and gave him a Grade B+ in the 2007 book, ranking him as the Number 23^rd pitching prospect in the game.

The Rays moved Davis up to Vero Beach in the Midwest League in 2007, where he posted a 1.84 ERA with an 88/21 K/BB in 78 innings, allowing just 54 hits. Clearly too good for this level, he moved to Double-A Montgomery at mid-season, where his ERA moved up to 3.15 with an 81/30 K/BB in 80 innings, 74 hits allowed. His stuff followed the same pattern as in '06: mid-90s early in the year, but dropping as the summer progressed as low as 88-90. I remained impressed overall and kept him at Grade B+ but bumped him up to Number Nine on my Top 50 pitcher's list.

Davis began 2008 with Double-A Montgomery, where he posted a 3.85 ERA with an 81/42 K/BB in 108 innings. Promoted to Triple-A Durham, he lowered his ERA to 2.72 with a 55/24 K/BB in 53 innings, with just 39 hits allowed. His velocity was a tad lower last year, peaking out at 95-96 rather than 96-97, but he held his stuff up in the 90s through the whole season. He also continued to refine his curveball, while his changeup and slider/cutter were also sharper. His command remained a work in progress. I continued with the B+ rating but lowered his rank slightly to 13^th overall.

2009 resulted in a 10-8, 3.40 ERA with a 140/60 K/BB in 159 innings for Triple-A Durham, with 139 hits allowed. He looked great in his first major league start September 6^th against the Tigers, allowing one run in seven innings, allowing just three hits and a walk with nine strikeouts. His second start, September 12^th against the Red Sox, was more difficult: 2.2 innings, six hits, four walks, eight runs. He threw a four-hit shutout against the Orioles in his third start on September 18th. These three starts illustrate what he can do when his command is on, and what happens when it's not.

A few additional thoughts about Davis:

**I like the way the Rays have handled him, moving him up one level at a time. The only time he was promoted at mid-season was in '07, after he'd fully dominated the Florida State League for half a year and had nothing left to prove there. He got 33 starts of Double-A, and 37 in Triple-A. Yes, the fact that they had pitching depth at the upper levels gave the organization the flexibility to avoid rushing him, but it is still to his advantage.

**Davis' Major League Equivalent numbers this year come out as a 4.91 FIP with a 117/80 K/BB in 162 innings, 147 hits, which isn't too good. Last year his MLE was 5.12 FIP with a 106/94 K/BB, 150 hits. The problem in both projections is too many walks, which will hamper him at the major league level. As much as I like him, I wouldn't expect huge initial success.

**I wrote in my book this year that Davis reminded me of Gil Meche, and I could see Davis following a similar path, showing good stuff but struggling to find consistency at early in his career. Davis is two inches taller, but their stuff strikes me as similar. There is no PitchFX data for Davis yet on Fangraphs, but once we get more it will be interesting to see if that comparison with Meche has any validity beyond my mental images. I don't have the graphics resources to do a good video frame-by-frame comparison, so file that away as something to think about. Their arm slots look a bit different on crappy youtube video, so maybe that doesn't hold up.